A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
Someone is going to have to explain how this makes a lick of sense.
First, the report, broken by Jay Glazer on Twitter just moments ago:
I’m reporting the Jaguars today have informed starting QB David Garrard they are releasing him! Luke McKown will start opener! Shocker!!!
I noticed a few people on Twitter saying they were “waiting for confirmation” before reacting. Umm, what more confirmation is needed beyond Glazer’s word? He’s as solid as they come.
So now some reaction.
When Super Bowl XLVI arrives in Indianapolis come February 2012, it will be 19 years since one of the most iconic moments in the history of America’s most popular sporting event: Michael Jackson’s epic 1993 halftime show.
Unfortunately, the eternal King of Pop is no longer with us (he would have turned 53 just a few days ago on August 29th), and he thus he will never be able to follow in the footsteps of Bruce Springsteen, The Who, John Mellencamp, and others who have taken to the Super Bowl stage as older musicians, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t weave the musical brilliance of Michael Jackson into a post about the National Football League.
So enjoy this homage to my favorite musician of all time, Michael Jackson, as we kick off our coverage of the 2011 NFL season. Here are all 32 Week One starting QBs in the NFL…as Michael Jackson songs.
Well, as I explained in this week’s waiver wire sleeper picks post, I needed another Monday night miracle to make the playoffs in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. Barring something truly miraculous over the next hour, my season will end at the hands of Team Gunaxin.
Regardless, it has been a great experience, highlighted by the trip to New York and the draft in the NFL boardroom. That was a truly memorable experience that I’ll remember forever, and I cannot thank P&G and the NFL enough for making it reality. I would have loved to be able to enjoy this year’s Super Bowl live from Jerry World as well; but alas, it was not meant to be.
Luckily I am in many more leagues than just that one and actually had three byes this week. So fear not, dear reader! Just because my season has come to a screeching halt in the P&G league, I still have leagues with friends and family that I must win for essential bragging rights and pride. Thus, I will still be working just as hard as always to analyze the players, trends, matchups, and injuries to help myself out in my other leagues and to help you out in yours.
Let’s start analyzing.
So…you remember how I need a miracle to win my Week 14 matchup in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*? Yeah, well it looks like I’m going to need yet another Monday miracle this week to keep my season alive.
The question is, can my prayers be answered two weeks in a row? Furthermore, if the fantasy football gods want to answer my prayers, is it even conceivable?
Let’s take a quick look, as well as analyze the free agent list for this week’s waiver wire sleeper picks.
With Week 13 close to being in the books, I am sure that we will have lost another chunk of our readership. Not because the advice we’ve given has been poor (at least, I hope not!), but because with only one week left in most leagues’ regular seasons, the number of people scrambling for roster advice will now be diminished as more teams get eliminated.
And while my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League* is hanging by the thinnest of threads, I am still in playoff contention of each of my five other leagues. Thus, you know I’m scouring the waiver wire for any player who will give me an advantage.
This column includes the fruits of that research, and it will hopefully assist you in finding some guys who can help you get into the playoffs and do well once you’re there.
I enjoyed Week 10.
Not only did I hit more than I missed with my start/sit picks and comment advice in Week 10, but my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League also exploded for an easy and much-needed victory over the sublimely named Sweaty Ditkas.
What I loved best about my win in BFL2010 is that the two guys who carried me were unheralded players that I recommended to a lot of you in Week 10: Fred Jackson and Mike Thomas. There is nothing I love more than when I follow my own advice and it works out…because that means it’s working out for many of you too.
Just like these Week 11 start em, sit em picks will. (At least, that’s the gameplan…)
Remember in the movie Men In Black how they had that little device that could wipe someone’s memory clean? After last week, I wouldn’t mind someone doing that to me.
Though I did a good job answering specific questions with all relevant lineup/league info (as I feel I usually do), Week 9 was certainly less than stellar with respect to the top-line picks.
While I nailed Eli Manning as a start and Seattle’s D as a sit…that was pretty much it. See below. The carnage was ugly.
But you know me. Bad weeks only motivate me more to dig deeper into the numbers and trends. I am committed to making Week 10 a much more accurate week over all…as much for your teams as for my own.
How important are waiver wire sleepers? I’ll tell you.
As you know, I’m currently competing for a pair of Super Bowl tickets in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*. I faced one of my stiffest opponents in Week 9, and I only had a chance to win because of one move: less than 30 minutes before kickoffs of the early games on Sunday I picked up Chargers WR Seyi Ajirotutu.
With Antonio Gates out, and the Chargers facing the Texans, I figured Seyi had a chance to have a good week. Two TDs and 20+ fantasy points later, it turned out to be one of the best moves I made all season.
Granted, I didn’t highlight Ajirotutu in last week’s waiver wire sleepers column, but I did highlight names like Josh Freeman, Willis McGahee, and Nate Burleson, all of whom helped you win if you were paying attention.
Who are this week’s waiver wire sleepers? Read on and I’ll highlight a bunch of guys with a chance to be the different between winning and losing in Week 10.
Week 5 is almost in the books – only tonight’s incredibly fascinating Jets-Vikings game is left – and, as is usual on a Monday morning, there is plenty of carnage that will affect fantasy teams moving forward.
Does your team have Aaron Rodgers? He was concussed yesterday and could miss Week 6. Were you counting on Mark Clayton as one of your top three receivers? He’s out for the rest of the year. Do you own Knowshon Moreno? He still can’t get that troublesome hamstring to cooperate.
Of course, the bye weeks don’t stop just because your team has injury issues, and there are four more this week. Carolina, Arizona, Cincinnati, and Buffalo are all off this week. That means holes in your fantasy lineups, and that means you need some waiver wire sleeper suggestions.
Lucky for you, that’s what we do on Mondays so you can get a leg up on your competition.
In the 3rd episode of Fantasy Football 3-2-1, I tell you which Week 1 performances you should trust and which ones you should be skeptical about.
David Garrard threw 3 TDs…should you trust it? Eli Manning threw 3 TDs as well…can you trust him? What about Matt Hasselbeck?
Same with Arian Foster and Darren McFadden. Whose performance is more likely to continue the rest of the season? And what about Austin Collie? Is he becoming a #1 fantasy WR?
I analyze those topics and others, plus I describe an embarrassing Week 1 “decision” I made as a way to offer a very valuable piece of advice.
No position in the NFL is more highly scrutinized, debated, and discussed than the quarterback. It’s impossible to build a consistent winner without one (and people who follow the Cleveland Browns would tell you that it’s impossible to find one period).
After this weekend’s Packers loss to the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers was a popular topic of conversation on Twitter. I made the comment that he has not shown me that he has the “it” that people always talk about when it comes to QBs. Some agreed and some disagreed, but it got me thinking about where Rodgers falls in relation to today’s crop of QBs.
Thus, I set out to rank the quarterbacks currently holding starting NFL gigs, taking into account their current age and skill level, future potential, past accomplishments, and the general confidence level I would have if that player was the QB of my team.
It’s time to bring back a feature we haven’t done much here on MSF over the past few weeks: the link of the day.
Today, the choice is easy.
Our very own Ron Clements is the newest sports writer for The Telegraph, based in Illinois. Not only do I want to express MSF’s most sincere congratulations and publicly wish him the best of luck, but he’s already written a great piece worthy of LOTD status.
Tuesday night, Ron posted a terrific profile of Jacksonville Jaguars QB David Garrard.
In the article, Ron traces Garrard’s career journey, including: the incredible bowl game he participated in while at East Carolina; his struggle with Crohn’s disease; his battle to climb to the top of Jacksonville’s depth chart; and, how he’s dealing with the franchise’s current struggles.
The Week 17 start em, sit em lineup advice post is up.
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Welcome to the first edition of what will be a weekly post here at MSF throughout the NFL season: start ‘em – sit ‘em lineup advice for your fantasy football rosters.
We all know how important overall position rankings are for valuing players on draft day. Typically there are pretty clear tiers of players at each position. Making sure that you get players in certain tiers at appropriate draft positions is a key to maximizing value.
But — and it’s an important but — as you go through the season, weekly values can fluctuate based on a player’s injury, a teammate’s injury, and the opponent for that week.
For a guy like Drew Brees, or most guys picked in the first two or three rounds, it will rarely matter. You lock these guys into your starting lineups and count on them to anchor your team.
For mid- and late-round guys, however, the players who may fill out your #2 RB / WR positions or your flex spot, keeping an eye on fluctuations in expected value on a week-by-week basis is important.
That’s the goal of this post and will be the goal every week.
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I won’t tell you to start Drew Brees; you know that. And if you don’t know that, there is a good chance that you are wasting your time doing research because your team is doomed with your Kotite-level leadership.
On the other hand, maybe you waited to get a QB and your choices are Joe Flacco and Eli Manning. Neither is a clear-cut weekly starter, but will have particular matchups throughout the year that you will want to leverage or avoid.
Please take note: Just because a guy is a “start ‘em” doesn’t mean he should necessarily start for your team. If I say that David Garrard is worthy of a start, it does not mean he should play over Tom Brady or Philip Rivers. And just because I say that Matt Schaub may struggle, it doesn’t mean you should start Shaun Hill over him. Everything is relative and dependent on your roster.Â
We’re all looking for an edge that can help us on weekly basis. I have eight teams this year and obviously want to win with every one of them every single week. This post is my way of using the research I’ve done to help you out as well.
So without further adieu, let’s get right to it: a start ‘em – sit ‘em highlight at each position other than kicker. And obviously we can’t get to every player in this post, so feel free to ask follow-up questions in the comments. I’ll respond as quickly as I’m able all the way up until Sunday morning.
Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Quarterbacks
Start ‘em:Â David Garrard, Jacksonville (@ Indianapolis)
David Garrard was a major disappointment last year. He threw for only 15 TDs against 13 INTs coming off of his breakout 2007 season during which his QB rating was the third best in the NFL (102.2). I think we may have seen Garrard’s ceiling in 2007, but that does not mean he is not a capable starter in certain spots.
This week is a great matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, primarily because the most important component of the Colts’ D, Bob Sanders, will be unavailable.
I am not a big believer in the Jacksonville receivers, although I do think that Torry Holt will have sneaky good rebound season as the #1 option. Still, despite the Jags’ deficiencies on the outside, Garrard completed 64% of his pass attempts in the preseason and has rumbling bowling ball Maurice Jones-Drew ready to catch 5-6 passes out of the backfield.
I think the Colts will score a lot of points on Sunday and I think the Jags, led by Garrard, will score a bunch too. I don’t think Jacksonville goes into Indianapolis and wins the game, but I do think Garrard is capable of 2 TDs (rushing or passing) and 200+ passing yards. Indy’s D just isn’t that good and Garrard should be able to take advantage and get off to a good start in 2009.
Other guys I like: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle (vs. St. Louis); Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Kansas City); Shaun Hill, San Francisco (@ Arizona)
Sit ‘em: Matt Schaub, Houston (vs New York Jets)
I really like Matt Schaub this year, if he stays healthy. (It is required by law that anyone writing about liking Matt Schaub include the health caveat.) However, I’m not a huge fan of his for this week.
Why? I think the New York Jets’ defense has a chance to be among the top handful of defenses in the NFL with Rex Ryan at the helm.
Certainly we know that the Jets’ D will attack Schaub with a variety of blitzes all game long. This will be a good test as to whether Houston’s offensive line will be up to the task of keeping Schaub upright consistently. If they can, Schaub has a strong enough rapport with Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter to make any defense pay. I am honestly a little worried though that Schaub will get banged around by the Jets and that this could turn into a lower scoring game.
I think Schaub will get a TD somewhere along the line to Andre Johnson, but that might be it. If you have an alternative, this might be a good week to do a little wait-and-see with Houston and Schaub.
Other guys I don’t like: Whoever is starting for Kansas City (@ Baltimore); Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (vs Tennessee)
Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Running Backs
Start ‘em:Â Willie Parker, Pittsburgh (vs Tennessee)
I chronicled in my Titans-Steelers preview the success that Willie Parker has had coming off of long layoffs either due to the offseason or injury. Parker did not have a good year overall last season, but did start out strong and also played well for a few games after coming back from a midseason injury.
Tennessee has a very good defense, but the Titans are now without Albert Haynesworth. This is a guy who dominated the middle last year while playing for a new contract and it may take the Titans a little while to shore up their front line without him. The Titans are, however, very good against the pass, forcing two INTs of Ben Roethlisberger in their meeting last year.Â
I think Pittsburgh and coach Mike Tomlin will want to establish their running game early in the 2009 season and will take advantage of Parker’s fresh legs to do so. You may want to think about trading Fast Willie after Week 3 or 4, because he tends to wind down, but this is a week to take advantage of having him on your roster.
Others I like: Julius Jones, Seattle (@ St. Louis Rams); Felix Jones, Dallas (@ Tampa Bay); Beanie Wells, Arizona (@ San Francisco)
Sit ‘em: Chris Johnson and LenDale White, Tennessee (@ Pittsburgh)
I like both of these guys a lot for the season, just not playing at the NFL’s #1 run defense in their home field on the first night of their title defense.
I touched on the Steelers-Titans game yesterday and discussed the game these two teams played in Week 16 last year. Johnson actually scored a TD and the two combined for a 3.8 yard per carry average, which was 0.5 better than Pittsburgh allowed on the season. That game, however, was in Tennessee. Thursday night’s game is at Heinz Field.
Johnson was probably an early round pick for you, and if so, you may have no choice but to start him. For comparison purposes however, I would seriously consider starting a guy like Felix Jones this week because of the matchup. If you can’t stomach sitting such a high draft pick, I understand. But at least take a look at your options.
Chris Johnson and LenDale White will have 15 weeks to offer value against teams other than the Steelers. They might get a TD between them, but who will get it? There won’t be much to go around Thursday night and it will probably be split between them. Stay away if you can.
Others I don’t like: Pierre Thomas, New Orleans (vs Detroit…check his injury status leading up to the game and remember that the Saints have lots of options on offense, so they won’t force it to him if he’s not ready); Steve Slaton, Houston (vs New York Jets); All Cleveland running backs (vs Minnesota)
Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Wide Receivers
Start ‘em:Â Braylon Edwards, Cleveland (vs Minnesota)
I know that I am often harsh of Braylon on this site, mainly because he killed the Browns and numerous fantasy teams on so many occasions last year. However, while I don’t think Braylon will equal his sterling 2007 stats, I do expect him to rebound in 2009.
This week’s matchup is a good one for Braylon in particular because the Browns are going to struggle mightily to run the ball against the Vikings’ Williams Wall (both are playing) and will obviously have trouble keeping Adrian Peterson in check. The Vikings just are not a good matchup for Cleveland as a team because they are proficient in the areas where Cleveland is weak: running and stopping the run.
I expect the Vikings to get up early and force the Browns, who will most likely have Brady Quinn at the helm, to throw a lot. Braylon Edwards is clearly the #1 option in the Browns passing game, and may be the 1st and 2nd option until another WR or a TE steps up.
He may not catch a high percentage of the balls thrown his way, but I think Braylon will lead the league in targets on Sunday and might even pick up a TD. Braylon will be up and down this season, but the big play capability is always there. In games where the Browns cannot run it he is going to see passes early and often.
Others I like: Desean Jackson, Philadelphia (@ Carolina); Torry Holt, Jacksonville (@ Indianapolis); Derrick Mason, Baltimore (vs Kansas City); Ted Ginn Jr, Miami (@ Atlanta)
Sit ‘em: Roy Williams, Dallas (@ Tampa Bay)
I guess you could call this a case of wanting to see it before I believe it.
As the season goes along, I do think that Tony Romo and Roy Williams will develop a rapport and that Williams can become a decent #2 WR or flex play, but I see Week 1 being much more about Dallas trying to establish an identity as a running team. Plus, with all of the 2-TE sets we’ve heard talked about for this season, I think Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett get their fair share of balls.
Williams has dealt with some injuries this preseason that have hindered his ability to work with Romo. Add to that his extreme struggles last year once he got to Dallas, and I’m just not buying in until I see it.Â
Williams is the Cowboys’ #1 option outside, so he will get targets and could have a decent to solid day. But if you have guys like Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Santana Moss, or others at or right below their class, I would start them and wait for Romo and Williams to prove that they will be the connection everyone thinks they can be.
Others I don’t like: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (@ Baltimore); Lee Evans, Buffalo (@ New England); Bernard Berrian, Minnesota (@ Cleveland)
Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Tight Ends
Start ‘em:Â Vernon Davis, San Francisco (@ Arizona)
I am really high on Vernon Davis this year, for a number of reasons:
Additionally, I am not a real big fan of Arizona’s defense. Â Remember, the Cardinals did not have that great of a defense in the regular season last year. They are also primed to become the NFL’s annual victim of the Super Bowl loss hangover.
I think the 49ers will run the ball a lot and try to establish a short, ball-control passing game with the underrated Shaun Hill at QB. With Michael Crabtree still being a douchy holdout, and Josh Morgan / Isaac Bruce barely being decent, I think the 49ers have to get the ball into the hands of their most talented, game-breaking receiver. That is Vernon Davis, and I would honestly not be surprised to see him sneak into the top 5 tight ends this year.
Others I like: Kevin Boss, New York Giants (vs Washington); Anthony Fasano, Miami (@ Atlanta); John Carlson, Seattle (vs St. Louis); Jeremy Shockey, New Orelans (vs Detroit)
Sit ‘em: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (vs Dallas)
Call it a hunch, or even call it sour grapes after how Winslow’s tenure in Cleveland ended. Either way, I call it a bad matchup against the Cowboys on Sunday.
Byron Leftwich will be starting at QB, and he scares no one. The Buccaneers brought in Derrick Ward in the offseason, have Cadillac Williams back from injury, and still have incumbent RB Earnest Graham on the roster. I think the Bucs try to run early and often, and when they don’t run I think Leftwich looks to Antonio Bryant much more than he looks to Winslow.
The weakness in the Cowboys’ defense is at the corner spot opposite Terrence Newman and the safeties. If Leftwich is going to have success throwing, I think it will be to the outside. Bradie James leads a decent LB corps that should be able to contain Kellen.
Again, I’d make sure you have a solid replacement before benching Winslow. Just don’t be surprised if he struggles.
Others I don’t like: Zack Miller, Oakland (vs San Diego); Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota (@ Cleveland)
Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Defenses
Start ‘em:Â New England (vs Buffalo)
Much has been made about the demise of the impending Patriots defense with the losses of stalwarts Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison, and Tedy Bruschi. Certainly this amount of veteran leadership will be missed, but the Patriots have done a good job of bringing in young guys like Jerod Mayo and Brandon Meriweather whose time to step up is nigh.
In reality though, I don’t consider the Patriots a top 10 D anymore. They are a spot-start this season based on matchups, with a great matchup coming in Week 1.Â
Buffalo is without Marshawn Lynch, T.O. has been dealing with an injured toe all preseason, and the Bills fired their offensive coordinator less than two weeks before the start of the regular season. Add all of that up, plus mix in the brilliance of Bill Belichick, and the Patriots make for a solid start on Sunday.
Others I like: Dallas (@ Tampa Bay); San Diego (@ Oakland); New Orleans (vs Detroit…because playing against rookie QBs making their first start is often a recipe for turnovers and TDs); Houston (vs New York Jets…same reason as New Orleans)
Sit ‘em: Miami Dolphins (@ Atlanta) & Atlanta Falcons (vs Miami)
Yes, I know that the Fins have Jason Taylor back, but I am worried about the Dolphins being able to stop Michael Turner and Matt Ryan at the same time. I think this game turns into a shootout on the fast track of the Georgia Dome and I would want no part of either defense.
For the record, I am also worried about the Bears D playing at Green Bay, which appears to be developing an offensive juggernaut. The only thing that kept me from listing them here is the ubiquitous threat of Devin Hester in the return game. We know that the early weeks in a football season are replete with big plays on special teams. If you aren’t confident in Hester taking one to the house though, I’d sit Chicago too.
Others I don’t like: Tampa Bay (vs Dallas)
So there you have it, the Week 1 Start ‘em – Sit ‘em. Hopefully this has assisted you with some of your lineup decisions, and remember to chime in with a question below if you have a specific decision you need help with.
Best of luck in Week 1 everybody!
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* – David Garrard photo credit: Reuters / Mark Wallheister via the San Francisco Chronicle
* – James Harrison / Chris Johnson photo credit: Getty images via ESPN.com
* – Braylon Edwards v Cincy photo credit: SortsOfSports.com
