Ball State still has to play Western Michigan (9-2, 6-1) next weekend, so they aren’t guaranteed of anything if they win tonight. Still, tonight’s game represents one more giant hurdle on Ball State’s improbable journey to BCS consideration. A serious discussion of their chances is grossly premature, what with the two toughest conference games on their schedule still in the front of Cardinals, as well as a potential conference title game. But getting a little excited about it seems just fine by me.

Standing in the way of the mighty Ball State Lettermans tonight is Central Michigan and defending MAC Player of the Year Dan LeFevour. The starting quarterback leads Central Michigan in both passing and rushing. Last season, LeFevour treated the Ball State defense like it was warm butter. He knifed through the Cardinals for 506 yards of total offense (including a career-high 146 on the ground) and six total touchdowns. The Chippewas won that game 58-38.

So I don’t think anyone has to worry about Ball State overlooking Central Michigan or taking LeFevour lightly. He has proven himself to be the most talented and accomplished individual player in the conference (no offense to Nate Davis). Containing LeFevour will be imperative tonight if Brady Hoke and Ball State are to keep their magical undefeated season alive.

For Ball State, they are hoping to play the solid, disciplined football that has gotten them to this stage in the season without a blemish on their record. The Cardinals are currently the least penalized team in the nation and have not committed a penalty in three games. For the season, Ball State is averaging 2.6 penalties per game. Penn State is second in the national at 3.2 penalties per game. Pretty impressive.

In addition to being disciplined, Ball State’s stars will have to play like stars. Quarterback Nate Davis and running back MiQuale Lewis have had oustanding seasons thus far. They have racked up stats and highlights, while leading the Cardinals to a combined 40 touchdowns. Dan LeFevour is going to lead Central Michigan up and down the field. For Ball State to win on the road, Nate Davis will have to match him.

And after saying that, I look at the stats and realize that Ball State is 15th in nation in scoring offense, while Central Michigan is only 44th. The biggest difference is the ground game. Ball State averages 194.2 yards per game on the ground while Central Michigan averages only 131.3. In big games, the team that controls the ball and clock with a solid running game is usually at a significant advantage. The team with fewer penalties also usually has an advantage.

However, the team with the best player and the home field has a couple of significant advantages in its favor too. So by now means is it a foregone conclusion that Ball State will waltz into Central Michigan and win just because they are ranked in the top 20.

In fact, remember: Central Michigan has won the last four meetings. And they spanked the holy hoke out of Ball State last year in Muncie. According to MiQuale Lewis, that result has stuck with the Cardinals players. “What they did to us last year in our stadium — everybody’s got that in the back of their heads,” running back MiQuale Lewis said. As long as they can channel that revenge in the right way, it could be a tipping point that puts the game in Ball State’s favor.

My gut tells me that Central Michigan will win this game. LeFevour and the home field advantage and the four straight wins are tough to overcome. However, I am rooting for Ball State. And Monday night, I picked the Browns to beat the Bills even though my gut said pick the Bills. I’ll stick with what’s working.

The gut says Central Michigan, but the fingers are typing Ball State.

Prediction: Ball State 42 | Central Michigan 38

[tags]ball state cardinals, central michigan, MAC, college football[/tags]