Instead, let’s talk about the best Super Bowls that never happened.

Talking hypothetical is one of my favorite things to do because there is really no right or wrong answer, because we don’t and will never know. What would have happened if Mark Brunell won a Super Bowl? Would there have been a belief that left-handed quarterbacks were the future of football?

I could have even gone the route of writing hypothetical Super Bowls between the Seattle Seahawks and the Saskatchewan Rough Riders, because I’m sure in some alternate universe (like after hypothetical Super Bowl XVII) that it could have happened.

Rather than getting all crazy and doing that, let’s just stick with teams that actually qualified for the playoffs during the year of said Super Bowl. It’s a lot easier that way.

1. Super Bowl X – Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Drew Pearson pushed off (go to the 2:00 mark). I don’t know how anyone can say he didn’t. The first Hail Mary was a fraud people. It’s about time we finally admitted it. The Vikings went 12-2 in 1975, were the top seed in the NFC, and lost because of a blown call by the referees. Not cool, Drew Pearson. Not cool at all.

2. Super Bowl XVI – Dallas Cowboys vs. Cincinnati Bengals

I do not like the Cowboys at all, but I do have to say they got robbed of a Super Bowl appearance in 1982 courtesy of the 49ers and “The Catch”. It would be the first of five Super Bowl wins for the 49ers, four of them behind the arm of Joe Montana.

If Dwight Clark didn’t make that catch, the West Coast Offense would have been passed off as a phase and a gimmick, Bill Walsh would have retired as the head coach at Washington State, and Joe Montana would be wearing ShapeUps that he had to buy with his own money.

3. Super Bowl XVII – Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns

The playoffs leading up to Super Bowl XVII might be my favorite thing in the history of professional sports (other than a hypothetical Vikings Championship, of course.)

Because of the players’ strike during the 1982 season and the resulting nine-game regular season, the NFL decided to allow eight teams into the playoffs (instead of the usual four) from each conference. This was subsequently named the “Super Bowl Tournament” and included the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns who both had records of 4-5, marking the first time any team had made the postseason with a losing record.

How great would it have been to have a Super Bowl played between two No. 8 seeds? The sixth seed from the AFC, the New York Jets, advanced to the Conference Final before losing to the Dolphins, but we’ve seen a sixth seed win the Super Bowl before thanks to the Wild Card.

The NFL had one chance to have an eighth-seeded team with a losing record become a Super Bowl Champion and they blew it. What would have happened if the Browns or Lions would have actually made it to the big game, let alone won it?

Would the NFL have been attacked by critics for allowing their players to strike, which lead to a shortened season that ended with a sub-.500 team winning the Super Bowl, therefore tarnishing the reputation of anyone involved with the NFL? All of this allowing the USFL to step in and be a legitimate competitor, forcing another merger and leave the National Football League of America with too many teams that they would eventually have to contract teams instead of grow in popularity and expand. Would that have happened?

If this Super Bowl would have happened, we never would have had the Jaguars or Texans or Panthers. Jim Kelly would have never lost four Super Bowls with the Bills. Steve Young would probably never be a Hall of Famer. Hershel Walker would be the greatest running back of all time, and the Vikings would have never handed the Cowboys three Super Bowl rings on a silver platter.

For all we know, the National Football League of America could have failed miserably and become a low-rate professional sport right next to jai hali and SlamBall.

4. Super Bowl XXI – New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns

The Drive. I feel bad for Cleveland Browns fans. I knew they were terribly unlucky and everything, but then I started doing research for this article. I can’t imagine what it would be like to lose multiple playoff games the way they did, and have the team they lost to go on to get absolutely killed in the Super Bowl.

I wrote down 15 hypothetical Super Bowls. The Browns appeared in six of them. I think I’m going to start being a Browns fan out of pity. I feel bad for them. As a Vikings fan, I’m here for you and know your pain. Speaking of the Vikings and Browns…

5. Super Bowl XXII – Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns

I had to do this one. Vikings vs. Browns. The two unluckiest franchises in NFL history squaring off a Super Bowl? The Vikings got knocked out of the playoffs after Darrin Nelson dropped a fourth-down pass late in the fourth quarter against the Redskins. The Browns lost on “the fumble” to the Broncos.

Literally anything could have happened. Imagine all the possibilities! It would be a contest to see which team could kill more fans in the span of three and a half hours.

To their credit, both teams deserve to make fake Super Bowls (the Vikings have four on this list, Browns have three). They probably wouldn’t have even won any of them anyway. Is it even possible for a team to lose seven Super Bowls? I don’t ever want to find out. Maybe it’s a good thing the Vikings and Browns will never make another real Super Bowl. It’s probably better that way.

6. Super Bowl XXVI – Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills

I really only included this one because I feel we as Americans were cheated out of seeing Barry Sanders ever play in a Super Bowl. In 1991 the Lions went 12-4, were the No. 2 seed out of the NFC, and made it to the NFC Championship game before losing to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Washington Redskins.

7. Super Bowl XXXIII – Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos

I’ve written about this game a lot in the past, so I’ll just keep it short. Because if I don’t, it will end up being 5,000 words that eventually lead me to comparing my moral compass to the ending of a football game that I watched when I was 8 years old.

15-1 record. Best offense in NFL history. Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Jake Reed, Randall Cunningham, Robert Smith. Injuries, horrible coaching, and the worst kick of Gary Anderson’s career crushed Minnesota. And they’ve never recovered.

And the Dirty Bird was the dumbest end zone celebration ever.

8. Super Bowl XXXIV – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Buccaneers lost in the NFC Championship game to the Rams by the oddest football score ever, 11-6, after the Rams scored a late fourth-quarter touchdown. It would take the Buccaneers another three years to finally reach the Super Bowl, and Kurt Warner became the greatest grocery bagger in NFL history.

The Jaguars were the No. 1 seed in the AFC in 1999 and put 62 points on the board in the division round against the Dolphins. They lost in the AFC Championship game to the Titans, who barely made it out of the first round, only doing so with a little play famously known as the “Music City Miracle.”

I have no idea what a Buccaneers-Jaguars Super Bowl would have been. I would have probably ditched the Vikings as my favorite team for the Buccaneers and would now have four different John Lynch jerseys in my closet. I suppose Fred Taylor would be a definite Hall of Fame running back and Tom Coughlin would now be the head coach of the Ravens.

9. Super Bowl XXXVI – St. Louis Rams vs. Oakland Raiders

The Tuck Rule. Super Bowl win number one for Tom Brady. Beginning of the end for Kurt Warner in St. Louis.

If the Patriots don’t win against Oakland, it is not inconceivable that Drew Bledsoe would have been reinstated as the starting quarterback in Boston, Tom Brady would have been traded to some team like the Chiefs or Texans, and Bill Simmons would have hopefully given up talking about football.

10. Super Bowl XLII – Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots

Brett Favre’s last pass as a Green Bay Packer was an interception in overtime which led the Giants to kick a game winning field goal to advance to Super Bowl XLII and spoil the Patriots chance at a perfect season.

Had the Packers beaten the Giants, one would have to believe that Favre would have retired after the season and actually stayed retired, Super Bowl win or not. Losing a Super Bowl to only the only team to win 19 games in a season is a much better ending than not even having the opportunity.

None of this happened of course, which helped set up Hypothetical Super Bowl No. 11.

11. Super Bowl XLIV – Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts

Can’t blame me for this one either. The Vikings were the best team in the league in 2009, thanks in part to Brett Favre playing the smartest (and arguably best) football of his life.

Unfortunately there was Brad Childress and his love for settling for 45-yard, game winning field goals. And then there was the Vikings getting flagged for having 12 men in the huddle RIGHT AFTER A TIMEOUT! Next play: Favre interception.

By the end of the game I was lying on my kitchen floor with my shirt over my face. Literally the worst night of my life.

I started writing for MSF two days later after comparing the Vikings-Saints game to lyrics by Hootie and the Blowfish. Weirdest thing I’ve ever written. At least something good came out of it.

The first time these two teams played each other was in Week 14, and the Giants won the game 37-34. That win set them up to stay alive in the NFC East, and gave them a shot to win it this week.

Eli Manning and Tony Romo (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are coming off a loss against Philadelphia in a game that turned out to be meaningless in the playoff race. The part of the game that concerned Cowboys fans was the fact that Tony Romo bruised his throwing hand after following through on the helmet of an Eagles defender. He is going to play in this game, and it will be interesting to see how much the injury affects his passes.

Dallas has been on the decline since their controversial loss in Arizona in Week 13 in which Jason Garrett iced his own kicker. They followed up that game with a loss to the Giants, and then beat the Bucs before losing to the Eagles last week. They could have wrapped up the division already, but their shortcomings are the reason why they are in a win or go home situation.

The ‘Boys are without DeMarco Murray as he is out for the season, so Felix Jones will have to step up this week. With Romo having the bruised hand, Jones will have to attack the Giants’ 22nd ranked rush defense. However, he has been nursing a hurt hamstring, so he will have to play through the pain in order to help his team.

New York Giants

The Giants are 2-5 in their last seven games, but they still find themselves with a chance to win the weak NFC East. They easily took care of the Jets last week, 29-14, which was a must-win for the Giants. If they lost, the Eagles would have a chance to win the division, so now the Giants control their own destiny.

The defense for New York could get immense help with the expected return of Osi Umenyiora, who has been out with ankle and knee problems. His return could help bring pressure on Romo, who had four touchdowns and no interceptions in the first meeting between the two teams.

Cowboys-Giants Prediction

After last week, it seems that the Giants are the better team. They looked sharp against the Jets, while the Romo-less Cowboys could get nothing going against the Eagles.

The only problem I have with the Giants is that they have been inconsistent all year, as evident by their four game losing streak in the middle of the season.

The Cowboys have had their mental toughness questioned by Emmitt Smith, but I feel that they will pull through on Sunday night.

Prediction: Cowboys 31 | Giants 27

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Here is a rundown of the NFC playoff scenarios. (Click here to see the AFC playoff scenarios.)

NFC Playoff Scenarios

Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants

This one is pretty easy.

The Cowboys and Giants play Sunday night. Whichever team wins becomes the NFC East champion and will get a first round home game. Neither team can make the playoffs any other way.

Image credit: Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News via Wyld About Pro Football

Green Bay Packers

This one is also pretty easy. The 14-1 Packers clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with their win over the Bears last night.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers clinched the NFC West a while ago, so they will host a first round home game at a minimum. They are still alive for a first round bye as well, and in fact are in the driver’s seat.

The 49ers are 12-3, and the Saints already have three losses. Because the 49ers own the tic-breaker with the Saints, all San Fran has to do is beat woeful St. Louis next week to clinch the first round bye and #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. (Or, if New Orleans loses tonight to Atlanta, the 49ers don’t even have to beat St. Louis next week.)

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have a clinched a playoff spot, but they are playing for a lot more than just a chance at the #2 seed when they face Atlanta tonight.

New Orleans hasn’t even yet clinched the NFC South division, nor a first round home game. They can do that tonight if they beat Atlanta. Even if the Saints don’t beat Atlanta tonight, they would still clinch the NFC South and a first round home game by winning their Week 17 game against Carolina or if Atlanta were to lose its Week 17 game to Tampa Bay.

If the Saints win both this week and next week, and San Francisco falls to St. Louis next week, the Saints would lock up the #2 seed in the NFC, a first round bye, and a second round home game.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons clinched at least a wild berth last night when Chicago lost to Green Bay. If they beat the Saints tonight, the Falcons maintain a shot at the NFC South title and a first round home game. As mentioned above, Atlanta would need to defeat the Bucs (should be easy) and New Orleans would need to lose to Carolina (not so easy).

Detroit Lions

The Lions clinched a playoff spot with their win over San Diego in Week 16. Because they play in the NFC North with Green Bay, they do not have a shot at anything more than a wild card road game in round one of the playoffs, regardless of what happens in Week 17. All that is still to be determined is who they will play.

NFC Playoff Predictions

Here is how I think the pivotal Week 17 games will go:

• Saints beat Atlanta (Week 16)
• Saints beat Carolina
• Atlanta beats Tampa Bay
• San Francisco beats St. Louis
• Giants beat Cowboys
• Lions beat Packers

This would create the following first round playoff matchups:

• Byes: Packers (14-2), 49ers (13-3)
• #3 Saints (13-3) v #6 Falcons (10-6)
• #4 Giants (9-7) v #5 Lions (11-5)

What do you think will happen? Comment below.

This isn’t the “caught with a a gram or two of marijuana” drug arrest. This is a HUGE drug arrest (details here), one that not only includes marijuana but cocaine and LARGE amounts of both. Like $575,000 worth of cocaine. It’s become clear that playing in the NFL was secondary to Hurd, and it it will likely cost him and the league big time.

As a Bears fan this is just disgusting to me. It feels like a kick in the groin while my back is turned and I am on the ground. We’ve got enough to feel bad about already with the way the season is going. This only makes things worse. It adds a bad stench to the franchise – we are now responsible for signing and employing a drug dealer!

I never did understand why these athletes, who make A LOT more than normal Americans even if they receive the minimum wage in the NFL, decide to throw their life and talent away by trading in their cleats to make a pretty penny illegally. Greed and selfishness only gets you so far before the middle-plate holding you up is shot down.

Is hundred of thousands of dollars really worth what I am guessing is going to be a good amount of time in jail?

With news breaking that police have a list of names “in the double digits” of other NFL players Hurd was selling to, I assume more players are going to go down with Hurd and turn this into a big PR problem for the NFL. Whatever way you look at it, this is not going to end well for either party.

As for the Bears, the team is going to have to put this behind them in whatever way they can. The best way would be to go out against Seattle this Sunday and prove that this team still has some fire left inside and win a must-win game.

The Cowboys currently hold a one game lead over the Giants and control their own destiny in the division. The two teams will meet once again in Week 17, so this game will be important for setting the stage for the end of the year meeting.

New York Giants

After starting the season 6-2, the Giants have been on a major decline, losing their last four games. Their best game during this slide actually came last week against the undefeated Packers, who held on to beat the Giants 38-35.

The Giants have had different problems during this streak, with the offense struggling in the first two losses, and the defense falling apart in the last two. They have seen themselves fall from first place in the NFC East, and a loss this week could end their playoff hopes altogether.

A positive factor in favor of the Giants is that they scored 35 points last week against the Packers, who are once again Super Bowl favorites. The difference is that the Packers have the 31st overall defense, while the Cowboys are ranked tenth. It also doesn’t help that the Giants are last in the league in rushing yards, with less than 84 yards per game.

Eli Manning will be relied on to lead the Giants to victory, and will look to Victor Cruz as his main target. Cruz already has surpassed the 1,000 receiving yard mark on the year, and has 7 touchdowns. His play will be key to the success of the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys were on a four game winning streak, which should have been five, until a gaffe by Jason Garrett led to an overtime loss against the Cardinals. Garrett called timeout and iced his own kicker, who made the kick that was called off, and went on to miss the one that counted. A win would have given the ‘Boys a two game lead in the division, and a win tonight would have nearly assured them a spot in the playoffs.

Dallas has the clear advantage in the run game, with rookie DeMarco Murray being their weapon. Since taking over the starting role in Week 8 against the Rams, Murray has rushed for 799 yards, including 253 in the game against the Rams. Last week was the first time he was held under 73 yards in the seven games he has been the starter, and he should be able to have a solid game against the Giants’ 23rd ranked rush defense.

Cowboys-Giants Prediction

Based simply on last week’s performance, it seems that the Giants are the favorites coming into this game. However, it is tough to ignore the fact that the Cowboys recently had a four game win streak.

The Giants may have some momentum, but the Cowboys are simply the better team this week.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 | Giants 21

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys           

• Giants-Cowboys Date: Sunday, December 11 at 8:20 PM on NBC
• Giants-Cowboys Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
• Giants-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -3
• Giants-Cowboys Over-Under Odds: 49

For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.

For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.

For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.

And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?

Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.

My apologies to those who came looking for Jon. I’m taking the start/sit reins today. I will do my very best to get you set up for success in this most pivotal of weeks.

Also, no looking back to Week 13, but not because it was a bad week. Frankly, I don’t know. I don’t even remember Jon’s picks. I assume some worked and some didn’t, like any week. But with the stakes now raised, there is no time for the rearview mirror. We look forward.

Here are your Week 14 start/sit picks:

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Matthew Stafford, DET (vs MIN)

Put this one in the no-brainer category.

Frankly, I feel a little bad making it the start em pick at QB, because it’s the equivalent of taking candy from a baby.  Nonetheless, it’s here, because if you own Matthew Stafford you absolutely must have him in your lineup this week.

And it all boils down to matchup.

If you watched the Broncos-Vikings game last week, you saw Broncos wide receivers running around wide open all day, providing easy pitch and catch opportunities for the not-so-renowned-as-a-thrower Tim Tebow. If Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker could do that against Minnesota, what do you think Stafford, Megatron, Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew will do?

Chances are they’ll pick up a few dumb penalties…and a lot of passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if Stafford, at home in a must win game for the Lions, ends up as the top scoring player in fantasy football this week, even though I’m going to be a little conservative with my projection.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 14 projection: 345 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start em QBs for Week 14:

• Rex Grossman faces a New England defense that made Dan Orlovsky startable last week. I would not start Grossman in a standard league, but he’s a solid two-QB league option this week; or a desperation fill-in with upside if your QB slot got hit by the injury bug.
• Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers Monday night, against a pretty good defense too. With his weapons healthy, and Buffalo on the schedule, Rivers is safe to deploy this week.
• Every week I scan for who is facing the Colts. This week it’s Joe Flacco. Play Joe Flacco. Even though the Ravens will likely run, run, run against Indianapolis, Flacco will throw enough to be useful. At the very least, he’s safe.

Sit Em QB: Michael Vick, PHI (at MIA)

Don’t do it. Don’t even think about it.

I know that Michael Vick owners are salivating at the thought of Vick returning this week and leading them to fantasy glory down the stretch, but in a one-QB league I wouldn’t even think about starting Vick unless I didn’t have another top 20 option. There are two good reasons:

1. Can you really trust Vick to stay healthy? No, you can’t. Really, you can’t trust him to stay healthy any week, but I’m especially leery about starting him without seeing him play a game since the rib injury.
2. Have you seen what the Dolphins are doing lately? They’ve won four out of five games, giving up a total of four touchdowns in that span.

With so many elite QBs outperforming Vick this season, and many marginal ones with good matchups, why would you risk your one QB spot on Vick?

Don’t do it.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 14 projection: 200 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, 1 total TD, 1 turnover

Other sit em QBs for Week 14:

• Those of you who relied on Andy Dalton early in the season need to look elsewhere. He’s starting to hit a rookie wall…and this week that wall is Houston and its ball control offense and stingy D.
• I’m not necessarily telling you to sit Tim Tebow, because he always finds a way to put up at least serviceable fantasy numbers. That said, don’t expect a reprise of last week when he faces the Bears.
• Josh Freeman has been a major disappointment this year. I know that Philip Rivers torched Jacksonville Monday night, but the JAX defense has been pretty stingy overall this year. There is more reason to trust Jacksonville’s D than to trust Freeman.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Mathews, SD (vs BUF)

As with the Stafford selection, I feel like I may be insulting your intelligence a bit with this pick; however, because Mathews has been so up and down, and because people always ask about him in the comment sections and live chats, I feel compelled to make my Week 14 love for him official.

First, consider that Mathews is red hot. He has two straight 100-yard games, and on Monday night he torched Jacksonville for 112 yards on a mere 13 carries. He also got into the end zone, which he doesn’t always do.

Second, consider his Week 14 opponent, the Bills, who are very generous to opposing running backs. And with Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game getting going, there will be plenty of space for Mathews to roam; and we know how much he loves space.

Ryan Mathews fantasy football Week 14 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD, 15 yards receiving

For the record, Mathews is clearly the #1 option in San Diego now over Mike Tolbert, though Tolbert still has some value as a flex option because he he’ll catch a few passes and get some goalline carries. But there is no debate right now between the two. Mathews is the guy.

Other start em RBs for Week 14:

• These should go without saying, but just to be sure: Ray Rice (v IND); Rashard Mendenhall v (CLE); Maurice Jones-Drew (v TB); Michael Turner (at CAR) – they are all top 10 options because of their proven ability and matchup.
• Adrian Peterson is supposed to play this week, at least that’s what I’m hearing. DO NOT ASK ME IF YOU SHOULD START HIM. Yes, you should. If he plays, he starts, even if the opponent is San Francisco (it’s not, it’s Detroit). End of discussion.
• Reggie Bush has to keep starting; and frankly, you should feel good about it at this point. With the Dolphins set to face the porous Eagles’ run defense, you should actually feel great about it.
• Shonn Greene is getting ready for another December heat up. He scored three TDs last week and faces the Chiefs this week. I like it.
• Looking deeper, C.J. Spiller is a decent option. He had 22 touches two weeks ago and 17 touches last week, and he’s picked up a few chunks under 200 yards with a TD during that span. You saw what MJD did the Chargers in a losing effort last week. Spiller could do about 75% of that…which is still good.

Sit Em RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB (at JAX)

Coming off of two 100-yard games, Blount looked like a surefire, slam dunk start against Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers have been the most generous defense to opposing running backs this year. What did Blount do? He punched 19 yards out of 11 carries. Yuck.

When it gets to playoff time, fantasy football is a lot like real football: you have to go with guys you can trust. It’s great that Blount has the potential for highlight reel leaps and thunderous trucks in any given week. He also can lay super eggs like he did last week. I don’t like kind of variance in my fantasy lineup in must-win scenarios.

Plus, I don’t like Blount’s matchup this week. Forget about what the Chargers did to the Jags last week. Jacksonville was dealing with turmoil galore and just happened to run into a Philip Rivers-led buzzsaw that was finally healthy. San Diego would have put up 20+ on San Francisco Monday night. Make no mistake: Jacksonville has a good defense, and they’ve been pretty stingy to opposing backs all year.

With Tampa Bay being frighteningly inconsistent as a team this year, and Blount dealing with a few unexpected distractions, I’m leaving him on my bench.

LeGarrette Blount fantasy football Week 14 projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit em RBs for Week 14:

• Every week you should go down the list of running backs and see who is facing San Francisco. This week it’s Beanie Wells. Sit him. Even with the 49ers likely to be without Patrick Willis, they’ll shut down Arizona’s run game. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to fear Wells getting hurt mid-game. Add it up, and I don’t trust him this week, despite his strong play of late.
• Cedric Benson owners have a tricky decision this week. Benson faces a very good Houston defense, but he has also proven that he can produce against good defenses even when he isn’t racking up yards (see his 41-yard, 2-TD day versus Baltimore). Benson is not an automatic sit because of how big a part of Cincy’s offense he is, but he’s only a borderline top-20 guy because of the matchup, so if you’re loaded at RB he’d be the guy to leave on the bench.
• Did you know the Falcons have the 5th-stingiest fantasy defense against the run? It’s true. That means that there could be fewer points to go around for Cam, DeAngelo, and JStew this week. Since Cam seems to be the one who gets most of the TDs, I’d consider leaving the other two on my bench unless desperate. (Remember: all that production the last two weeks has come against Indy and Tampa.)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Jabar Gaffney, WAS (v NE)

Yes, I realize that by telling you to start Jabar Gaffney that I am essentially asking you to have faith in Rex Grossman; but I urge you not to look at it that way. Think about it more in terms of me telling you to not trust a Patriots secondary that gives up more average points per game to opposing wide receivers than any other defense in football.

You read that right. In fact, the Patriots give up 2.3 more fantasy points to opposing WRs than even the moribund Vikings do! Here, I’ll prove it.

Plus:

• Gaffney has 12 catches for 187 yards over the last two weeks, including one touchdown.
• Santana Moss has been back for the last two weeks, but he only has nine catches for 71 yards; so clearly he is a) the second option for Grossman and b) helping to draw attention away from Gaffney.
• Fred Davis is suspended, meaning more targets to go around; and surely a few of those targets will go Gaffney’s way.

Gaffney doesn’t score with enough regularity to trust him for TD production, so that makes him barely a top-20 option; but I think you can trust him to give you 6-8 catches and close to 100 yards. If you play three wide receivers, it’s nice to be able to bank on that from one of them.

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 14 projection: 7 catches, 90 yards, .5 TDs (because I think he’ll catch one, but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t…so don’t expect it.)

Other start em WRs for Week 14:

• I like Torrey Smith this week. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but Baltimore has faced the 49ers and Browns, two teams that have been pretty good against opposing receivers. This week Baltimore faces Indianapolis. Yes, I just chuckled devilishly too.
• Laurent Robinson was finally held out of the end zone last week, but he still amassed 70+ yards on four catches. With Miles Austin slated to return this week, you might be tempted to sit Robinson. I wouldn’t. Tony Romo trusts him, and the Giants are generous to opposing wide receivers. Of the two, give me the guy who has been playing the last two months and caught seven TDs in six games.
• I wouldn’t get down on Steve Smith despite his decreasing production the last month. Atlanta will force Carolina to pass, and the Panthers are without Brent Grimes in the secondary. I expect fireworks from the original Steve Smith.
• When he’s healthy, all Malcom Floyd does is produce. He’s healthy, the matchup is good, and I don’t care if he’s third fiddle in SD’s passing game. Start him.

Sit Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, STL (at SEA)

I’ve been high on Lloyd ever since he came over to St. Louis, and most of the time I’ve been right. Even though the Rams’ offense sucks, Lloyd has been able to carve out a niche as the lone consistent fantasy producer. I’m not sure how he’s done it, but he has.

Last week, however, Lloyd tallied only one catch against the mighty 49ers, and things aren’t looking too good this week. Not only is Sam Bradford dinged up, but his normal backup A.J. Feeley is hurt too. That means that…wait for it…Tim Brandstater could be starting at QB for St. Louis.

Combine the Rams’ woeful offense with this QB uncertainty, and then mix in Seattle’s underrated defense at home, and you have a recipe for a sit ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 40 yards

Other sit em WRs for Week 14:

• Dwayne Bowe is on Revis Island this week, and he still has Tyler Palko tossing him the pigskin. Just didn’t want you to forget.
• I’m not telling you to sit them automatically, because both have been consistently productive this year, but just know that Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are facing the stingiest pass defense in the league. Granted, the Browns’ pass D numbers are skewed because teams just gash them with the run…but still, 12 weeks is a long time and receivers underperform against Cleveland on a weekly basis. If you have comparable options, go with them this week.
• The Redskins are stingier than you might think against opposing wide receivers. Play Gronk and Wes Welker for sure, but this is a week when Deion Branch doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
• Remember what I said above regarding my dislike for variance? Well, Julio Jones is the poster boy for wide receiver variance this year. Since Carolina is actually decent against the pass, Jones is another guy who is not an automatic sit…but who I’d have a hard time starting in a must-in situation because of how unpredictable he is.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow, TB (at JAX)

See, I don’t completely hate the Buccaneers (though I did decide to use a picture of Kellen Winslow in a Browns uniform…just because) nor irrationally love Jacksonville.

Despite their defensive consistency this year (minus Week 13) Jacksonville hasn’t been great against opposing tight ends. They actually give up the third most fantasy points per week to them.

Combine this with my distrust in the Bucs’ running game, and the Bucs’ inconsistency at wide receiver this year, and Kellen Winslow seems like, at worst, a safe and reliable option this week. You could do worse from your tight end in a big spot.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 14 projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, .5 TDs (again, I’m splitting the difference here; because of the matchup I think he can get one, but he only has two on the year.)

Other start em TEs for Week 14:

• If you’re desperate, consider Kevin Boss. The Packers give up more points to opposing tight ends than anyone, and the Raiders have had constant issues with their wide receivers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are big but inconsistent names who I think you should trust this week because of matchups.

Sit Em TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN (v HOU)

It’s tough to put Gresham here, because he’s been playing much better lately; and he really should have two more touchdowns if controversial calls had gone his way. Still, the Texans’ defense locks down opposing tight ends like few others, so as tough as Gresham is to sit, it’s even tougher to trust him.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 14 projection: 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other sit em TEs for Week 14:

• Scott Chandler has actually been decently productive without scoring touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, his production has come against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams that are more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chargers are.
• Aaron Hernandez is far from a must-sit, but he is no longer 1b to Rob Gronkowski’s 1a in New England. Gronk is clearly #1, with Hernandez picking up the scraps as #2. That still usually means 4-5 catches and 45-50 yards per week, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. Project accordingly.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v STL)

The Seahawks have been a better fantasy defense than you might think this year, and they typically play better at home. Mix in a little Tim Brandstater (if Sam Bradford can’t go) and you have all the makings of a safe, potentially explosive fantasy defense for Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 10 or fewer points, several sacks, 2+ turnovers

Other start em D/STs for Week 14:

• The Broncos should get Von Miller back, and they get to face a Bears’ offense that is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.
• The New York Jets have fallen quite a way from the must-start-against-anyone status of a couple years back, but I do like them this week against the Kansas City Palkos.

Sit Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (v NYG)

The Cowboys have been too up and down for my tastes this year. While Demarcus Ware is always around to get some sacks, and Eli Manning could always revert back to 3-INT Eli, I think this game will be a shootout, and frankly I don’t really want any part of either defense.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, two sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs for Week 14:

• Detroit’s defense might seem inviting against the 2-10 Vikings, but remember that Suh is out, Peterson is back, and Ponder-to-Harvin has become one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately; yet, even with that, and the fact that I’m telling you to sit Michael Vick this week, the presence of LeSean McCoy and Andy Reid still scares me enough to say that I wouldn’t want the Dolphins’ D starting for me in a must-win situation. The Eagles’ may suck, but they do have explosive capabilities that could, well, explode at any minute.

And that’s it! Another successful start/sit column in the books. Now it’s on to your questions. Have at the comment section, and we’ll be back all week to answer.

Also, since several of you have asked how you can help support MSF for the time we take, quite joyfully, to help you with your fantasy teams each week, I’ll just suggest checking out Daily Joust. You’ve seen me discussing them a lot this season, and they really do have a fun package of weekly fantasy games for you to play, from college to pro. Shoot, Keith Mullett thinks it’s “the best alternative to fantasy sports and gambling ever.“

Click here or on the image below, and if you become a paying member at Daily Joust we’ll end up getting a cut of the money. No pressure, just a suggestion that I’d make regardless of our affiliate status with them, and one that would help us out if you obliged.

Note: I used ESPN’s Points Against tool as a reference while writing this post.

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The first portion begins with the 10-0 Green Bay Packers against the Detroit Lions (AMANDA’S PREVIEW). Dessert is the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers visiting the Baltimore Ravens. (Throw in a certain Indiana Hoosiers hoops coach and the Harbaugh clan is fast becoming the most annoying coaching dynasty in the history of Western Civilization.)

Just don’t forget the main course in the middle; because as any true elitist knows, it is just not quite Thanksgiving without the Dallas Cowboys.

Thanksgiving Football in Big D

Sure, the Packers, Bears, and Lions have their own little thing going far away from America’s vapid coasts (and some people actually notice) – but the Cowboys are still America’s team, confirmed in 1970 when the NFL wisely placed the franchise in the NFC East, instantly creating legendary rivalries with the New York Football Giants, Washington Redskins, and Philadelphia Eagles.

The NFL was also wise in the late 1960′s to make Thanksgiving football an annual event in the Metroplex, and Turkey Day has provided some of the franchise’s greatest memories.

What about Clint Longley coming off the bench replacing a concussed Roger Staubach and heaving a last-minute bomb against the Skins in 1974?

Or an even more unlikely hero when now-coach Jason Garrett got the start in 1994 victory over the Packers, who even at the apex of the Reggie White/Brett Favre/Mike Holmgren era could not buy a win in Texas Stadium.

Then there is the most surreal Thanksgiving memory of all:

Leon Lett and The Most Infamous Play in Thanksgiving Football History

1993, Cowboys, Dolphins, two sun-belt teams, playing on an ice-covered Texas Stadium turf. (TRIVIA – WHO WAS THE DOLPHINS’ QB THAT DAY?? Answer at end of post.) Hoosier alum Pete Stoyanovich attempts a 40-yard field goal. Kick is blocked, and NBC immediately cuts to a celebrating Jerry Jones on the sidelines and Troy Aikman/Michael Irvin hugging each other.

Only one problem: Stoyo was going to get another shot from point blank range.

The commentary from Bob Trumpy said it all, ‘NOT LEON LETT!!!!!’, followed by Dick Enberg exclaiming ‘OH, OH, OH, MY!!!’, and a young Ed Hochuli front and center.

Yup, getting the ball knocked from your hands in the waning minutes of a Super Bowl that kept a 52-17 win from being 59-17 was one thing; but insanely trying to recover a ball on a skating rink when the game was essentially over was quite another.

In a scene resembling something straight out of curling, Miami players spent the next several minutes clearing Stoyanovich’s eventual kicking spot while at least one Cowboys player attempted to kick snow back on the area while the officiating crew attempted to sort out the mess.

Stoyanovich would make good on his second chance and the Dolphins won. That would be Dallas’ last hiccup of the season as Troy/Emmitt/Irvin, and Jimmy Johnson would recover to win a second consecutive Super Bowl. On the other side, this would be the final Dolphins win of the year, they would lose their final five games to miss the playoffs.

Well, the lid on the new Cowboys Stadium eliminates any chance of weather being a factor this time around, but still there are plenty of storylines leading in. Can the current Tony Romo-led team win the NFC East and make the playoffs? And even more importantly, can the Cowboys of this era ever approach the level of their 1990′s predecessors?

And what is there to make of the Dolphins? Four weeks ago the team looked destined to make another run at 0-16 and coach Tony Sparano even mentioned his impending termination to a game official. Now just three weeks after being Tebowed (kind of like being Jimmered), Sparano may still be a dead coach walking, but the Dolphins have since won three straight and at least Tony and Rex Ryan can spend their coaching after-lives wondering how their defenses could let Touchdown Jesus off the hook.

Now for the analysis…

MATT MOORE DOMINATES

Who needed the Chad Henne anointing oil anyway?

And who needs to tank games in order to be able to draft Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley when a team can just simply pick up the undrafted Matt Moore of the scrapheap?

Moore has completed 63.6% of his passes and has had QB ratings of 147.5 and 133.3 in two of the past three weeks. Moore has also completed over 70% of his passes over those three games, only being picked off once in that span.

And then there is another player who got slightly more hype than Matt Moore coming out of the Pac-10. In recent weeks Reggie Bush is finally resembling the talent that was picked #2 overall in the draft in 2006. In the past four games Reggie has accounted for 379 combined yards, 274 of those on the ground. If Bush rushes for a mere 76 yards on Thursday, he will eclipse his previous season-rushing high of 581 yards.

Although Reggie seems to have been around forever (and probably has considering his USC days) it should be noted he is still only age 26. The Dolphins still have a few years of tread left on those tires.

ROMO IS BURNING

Earlier in the season, the criticism reached an all-time high with critics (me included) labeling Tony Romo as the latest incarnation of Brett Favre with his erratic play and penchant of falling short in the clutch. Well, in the past three weeks Romo has thrown eight TD passes v. zero picks, with QB ratings of 112.2, 148.4, and 113.8 in those games. Granted the opposition was not the greatest (Bills, Seahawks, Skins), but he did lead his team to a winning drive in OT Sunday in Washington.

Regardless of what happens v. the Phins, the real kool-aid battery acid test will come in Dallas’ two upcoming games v. the Giants, and ultimately the playoffs. But I don’t think replacing Romo as QB is a necessity at this point.

Others have helped lighten that load, including rookie DeMarco Murray (on track to be a top-ten overall fantasy pick in 2012) who has emerged as a potential franchise back; and Felix Jones is rounding back into form after his annual injury bug and can now resume the role he is more accustomed to as a change-of-pace option.

Then there is much-maligned diva/wide receiver Dez Bryant. He is not THE man, as the Cowboys offensive scheme spreads itself around, but Dez came up with two big plays in Washington, including a 26-yard reception in overtime, that led to the winning score.

THE DEFENSES

Six field goals. That is all that the Dolphins defense has conceded over the past three weeks, and they kept league leading rusher Fred Jackson in check (before he got hurt) this past Sunday.

And Jason Taylor? He’s still in the league!

But the Phins impressive run has been against the likes of the downward-spiraling Bills and Chiefs, Dallas will provide a much stiffer test.

And for the Cowboys, it’s all about Demarcus Ware, approaching perhaps his best season yet with 14 sacks in ten games, which puts him on pace to best his career-high 20 sack season in 2008. He is simply the best pass-rusher in the game right now (with all apologies to Jared Allen groupies). Ex-Cowboy reject Marc Columbo has the difficult task of trying to hold Ware in check Thursday. Look for the Phins to utilize a blocking tight end in an effort to max-protect.

DOLPHINS-COWBOYS PREDICTION

Both teams have two common opponents over the past two weeks. The Redskins lost in Miami 20-9 before losing to the Cowboys in OT. Meanwhile Dallas routed the Bills 44-7 while the Dolphins beat them 20-8 a week later.

Both teams have a three-game winning streak, one will make it four…

Cowboys 27 | Dolphins 16

What do you think?

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TRIVIA ANSWER: STEVE DEBERG (39 AT THE TIME)

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys Game Info

• Dolphins-Cowboys Date: Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 24th
• Dolphins-Cowboys Kickoff Time: 4:15 PM EST
• Dolphins-Cowboys TV Network: CBS
• Dolphins-Cowboys Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
• Dolphins-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5
• Dolphins-Cowboys Over/Under: 44

The games have not exactly been the most entertaining affairs the last few years, but this year is completely different and the matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Dallas Cowboys is no exception.

Do not be fooled by the disparity between the two teams in the win/loss column; this game is a cornucopia of story lines. (See what I did there? Cornucopia…because Thanksgiving.)

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins may be 3-7, but they are much better than their record.

Despite their record they have actually outscored their opponents by a margin of 7 points this season.  They are also coming off of a 35-8 drubbing of the division rival Buffalo Bills last week.  Couple this with the fact that their coach, Tony Sparano, will be very motivated to beat his former team in a year where his job may be on the line.

This is the first time that the two teams have met since Bill Parcells hired Sparano away from his former team.

Dallas Cowboys

This is also a very important game for the Cowboys, who are currently tied with the Giants for the division lead in the NFC East at 6-4 after a rocky start to the season.  They need to win this game to help their chances to make the playoffs, especially since their schedule does not get any easier the rest of the season with two matchups against division the Giants and one against the Eagles.

The Cowboys have been on a roll on the offensive side of the ball with QB Tony Romo playing great football after a tough start to the year.  The biggest surprise for the Cowboys’ offense is the production of their rookie running back, DeMarco Murray.  Murray may have been the best value pick of the draft last year.  The third round draft pick should break 1,000 yards before the season is up and is my choice for Rookie of the Year.

Cowboys-Dolphins Prediction

There are plenty of interesting story lines to watch in this game.  It could be the best game on a day many are considering to the best slate of Thanksgiving Day games in years…maybe ever.

Many are expecting the Cowboys to win handily, but the Dolphins have been producing lately and have lost some close games.  I look for this game to be a lot closer than many think and something tells me the Dolphins might pull it off even without a Leon Lett-esque miracle like their 1993 Thanksgiving Day game.

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

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Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys Game Info

• Dolphins-Cowboys Date: Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 24th
• Dolphins-Cowboys Kickoff Time: 4:15 PM EST
• Dolphins-Cowboys TV Network: CBS
• Dolphins-Cowboys Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
• Dolphins-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5
• Dolphins-Cowboys Over/Under: 44

The 7-3 Lions are relevant on the fourth Thursday of November.

When families across the country tomorrow turn their televisions to Fox at 11:30 a.m. (Central Time), they’ll get to enjoy a Thanksgiving meal while watching a Lions team that is very much in the playoff picture (complete schedule here). Many of my MSF colleagues aren’t old enough to remember the last time that happened.

For the first time in years family members won’t be asking each other, “Why are we stuck with the Lions on Thanksgiving?” as they pass the mashed potatoes.

Detroit’s First Thanksgiving Day Game

The Lions and the Bears on Thanksgiving, 1934. An extra serving of sweet potatoes goes to the person who can figure out what sort of offense they're running. (Pro Football Hall of Fame)

The Lions have played on Thanksgiving for as long as they’ve been the Lions.

The franchise began as the Portsmouth (OH) Spartans in 1930. In 1934, team owner G.A. Richards moved the team from the small steel town on the Ohio River to Detroit. Desperate to bring attention to the new team and its star quarterback Dutch Clark, Richards scheduled a Thanksgiving Day game against the reigning champion Chicago Bears. The Lions were 10–1 going into that game; the Bears were 11-0. All 26,000 tickets for the game, held at University of Detroit Stadium, were sold out weeks before Thanksgiving.

The game, which the Bears won 19-16 en route to an NFL Western Division title, was such a success that Thanksgiving Day football in Detroit became an annual affair. The Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving game every year since World War II.

But football on Thanksgiving predates the Lions, and even the NFL.

We don’t know when two football teams first decided to face off on Thanksgiving, or why, but by the end of the 19th century, the tradition was already established.

The Beginning of Thanksgiving Day Football

College

The Universities of Michigan and Chicago met annually on Thanksgiving beginning in 1893. (Even before then Michigan had played Thanksgiving games against the Chicago Athletic Association.) The Michigan-Chicago tradition ended in 1899 after Chicago coach Amos Alonzo Stagg refused to split gate receipts equally with the Wolverines or to give Michigan the right to choose the location of the 1900 game.

Stagg did not consider Michigan or other regional schools Chicago’s equals. The Wolverines needed to play in Chicago; Stagg’s Maroons would do just fine never setting foot in Ann Arbor. So in 1899 the Wisconsin Badgers traveled to the Windy City for a Thanksgiving meeting with the Chicago Maroons. (Say what you want about Amos Alonzo Stagg. His name is still on the Big Ten championship trophy.)

Fans tailgate before the 1895 Michigan-Chicago game. (Chicago Tribune)

High School

High schools also have been playing Thanksgiving Day games since the 19th century.

In many states old rivals play each other on Thanksgiving, provided that one or both of the two schools haven’t advanced to the late rounds of the state tournament. Boston Latin and Boston English, two of the nation’s oldest secondary schools, have played on Thanksgiving every year since 1887.

The most storied Thanksgiving Day rivalry in the Midwest involves two schools just outside of St. Louis. Kirkwood and Webster Groves have played on Thanksgiving since the late 1890s. This year, with Kirkwood advancing to the Missouri Class 5 State Championship Game, the annual Turkey Day contest between Kirkwood and Webster Groves will involve the junior varsity squads.

Professional

Pro football teams have played on Thanksgiving since the first professional leagues arose in the first decade of the 20th century.

The New York Pro Football League, a predecessor of the modern-day NFL, settled its championship on Thanksgiving. The Ohio League, the NFL’s other ancestor, saved its most important games for the holiday. The first NFL season in 1920 featured 6 Thanksgiving Day games, 5 of which were shut-outs (including one scoreless tie) and 2 of which involved NFL teams playing non-league teams.

Throughout the 1920s and 1930s the number of Thanksgiving games and the teams involved varied from season to season.

In the first Thanksgiving football games, Turkeys played for their lives.

Thanksgiving Day Dispute

In 1939 a dispute arose about the actual date of Thanksgiving.

Prior to that year, the holiday had always been the final Thursday of November. In 1939 that would have put Thanksgiving on November 30. Back then shoppers and retailers were loath to buy or sell Christmas gifts before Thanksgiving. So a late Turkey Date meant a short Christmas shopping season.

President Franklin Roosevelt was afraid that a November 30 Thanksgiving would have a negative impact on an economy that was still struggling to recover from the Great Depression. Under pressure from business leaders, FDR moved the holiday back one week, to November 23. Several states refused to recognize the change. After all, the Thanksgiving high school football games were already scheduled.

That year there were two Thanksgivings.

The only NFL game played on either date was a November 23 clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In 1941 Congress passed a law establishing Thanksgiving as the fourth Thursday in November.

"You can wait another week if you want. But there won't be any turkey left."—Franklin Delano Roosevelt

The Growth of the NFL’s Thanksgiving Day Classic

For two decades after World War II (with the exception of a 1952 game between the Bears and the Dallas Texans), the NFL played only one game on Thanksgiving, hosted by the Detroit Lions.

In 1946 the upstart All-American Football Conference (AAFC) also played a Thanksgiving Day game. (The New York Yankees beat the Brooklyn Dodgers 21-7.) The following year the AAFC played two games on the holiday, a trend that the league continued until it folded after the 1949 season (at which point three AAFC teams—the San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, and Baltimore Colts—joined the NFL).

When the American Football League (AFL) launched in 1960 it also had an annual Thanksgiving Day game on its schedule. The first 3 AFL Thanksgiving games involved the New York Titans, who would later become the Jets.

In 1966 Dallas Cowboys owner Tex Schramm jumped at the opportunity to host a second Thanksgiving NFL game. He saw it as a marketing opportunity—a chance to bring publicity to his young franchise.

Not to be outdone, the AFL added a second Thanksgiving game in 1967. For the next 3 seasons, American football fans were treated to 4 pro football games on the fourth Thursday of November. When the AFL merged with the NFL in 1970, it gave up its two Thanksgiving games. Instead, one team from the new American Football Conference would play either the Lions or Cowboys.

With the exceptions of 1975 and 1977, when the St. Louis Cardinals replaced the Cowboys as a Turkey Day host, the NFL played exactly two Thanksgiving games—one in Detroit, one in Dallas—from 1970 until 2005.

In 2006 the league added a third game. So those of you who get the NFL Network can enjoy Thanksgiving football long after the dishes have been done and the remains of your holiday meal are sitting in a dozen Tupperware® containers in the fridge.

"I didn't catch what he said. Let's just assume that he said 'heads.' "

Though Thanksgiving football is as American as a deep-fried Twinkie at the state fair, the tradition isn’t confined to the states.

The Canadian Football League (CFL) has held a Thanksgiving Day doubleheader each year since 1970. But don’t be shocked when you don’t see Argos-Als highlights tomorrow night on SportsCenter. The CFL plays its Thanksgiving Day Classic on Canadian Thanksgiving, which is the second Monday in October.

Football on Thanksgiving is as old as the sport itself. And it’s nice that, this year, we can kick off the day with a game that has playoff implications (even if we have to deal with Nickelback at halftime).

Happy Thanksgiving.

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Josh Tinley is the author of Kneeling in the End Zone: Spiritual Lessons From the World of Sports. Follow him at twitter.com/joshtinley or send him an e-mail.

So in this post I’ll do just that, providing analysis and recommendations for the key players you need to decide on before Turkey Day.

Quickly, before I get to the start/sit analysis for the Thanksgiving Day games, I want to tell you about a fun fantasy contest from our friends at Daily Joust. They are hosting a Thanksgiving Day Turkey Shootout that uses only players playing on Thanksgiving Day in the player pool, has a $5 entry free, and $300 guaranteed prize pool. Plus, not only is it a Super Joust Qualifier, but you can submit multiple entries.

I plan on joining. I’ll post my team later in the week. Are you up to the challenge? Click here. (And yes, if you sign up, it helps us out. But we wouldn’t promote it if we didn’t play ourselves.)

Now onto the start/sit picks.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Quarterbacks

Start em QB: Matt Moore, Miami (at Dallas)

Over the last three weeks, few quarterbacks not named Rodgers have been as consistently good in both real life and fantasy football as Matt Moore. He has six touchdown passes and has been intercepted just once. That’s solid, consistent production that we can somewhat count on.

Granted, he did all of this against Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo, so this matchup against Dallas will be the best defense Moore has faced in a month. But the Cowboys are better against the run than they are the pass, and Rex Grossman threw for 250+ yards and two TDs on them last week.

Moore isn’t an automatic start like the three QBs mentioned below are, but he is a solid play with upside in two-QB leagues or for anyone stuck with Joe Flacco.

Matt Moore fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT

Other start em QBs:

• Hopefully I don’t need to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. I haven’t looked at the other matchups, but those two guys may be the #1 and #2 QBs this week.
• It’s still November, which means that Mr. November Tony Romo is still a very good start. He’s hot, and while the Dolphins are playing well they haven’t faced a QB of Romo’s caliber during their win streak.

Sit em QB: Alex Smith, San Francisco (at Baltimore)

Alex Smith has been playing the best football of his career this year; and while I know the Ravens gave up a lot of passing yardage to Andy Dalton and the Bengals last week, they also picked Dalton off three times. I expect the Harbaugh Bowl to be a low scoring, physical affair; and I want no part of Alex Smith against a motivated Ravens defense playing at home in primetime against a team you know they won’t take lightly.

So even though Andy Bottoms likes Smith long-term in his Week 12 waiver wire pickups column, wait a week before deploying him in your lineup.

Alex Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 200 yards passing, 0 TD, 0 INT

Other sit em QBs:

• I don’t like Joe Flacco against the stout 49ers’ defense. I’d play him before I’d play Smith, but I’d hope to need neither.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Running Backs

Start em RB: Kevin Smith, Detroit (v Green Bay)

Well…that came out of nowhere.

Last Sunday during the live chat, I was telling everyone who would listen that I thought a Detroit running back was a good play because of the matchup against Carolina. Turns out I was right, but it also turns out I had the wrong Detroit running back. Rather than Maurice Morris, it was Kevin Smith who made his triumphant return to the Motor City and amassed 200+ total yards and three TDs.

Is Smith for real? I don’t know. Carolina is one of the most generous defenses to opposing running backs. That said, Smith is the guy now in Detroit, certainly until Jahvid Best gets back. Additionally, of all the defenses playing on Thanksgiving Green Bay’s actually gives up the most points to opposing RBs. Just ask LeGarrette Blount.

I wouldn’t get too excited about Smith…yet…but if you win him in this week’s most hotly contested waiver wire battle, feel good about deploying him on Thanksgiving.

Kevin Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 80 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Other start em RBs:

• Frank Gore looked healthy and spry last week, and he faces a Baltimore defense that gave up two scores to Cedric Benson. If Gore plays, you start him. It’s that simple.
• Do you know the Dolphins are the second stingiest defense in terms of fantasy points scored by opposing running backs? It’s true. Still, I’d start DeMarco Murray. He is the focal point of the Cowboys’ offense now, and I think they’ll put up numbers against Miami.
• I thought about making Ray Rice the sit ‘em RB, but I just can’t. Even though San Francisco has given up a whopping total of zero rushing touchdowns this year, they have had a game in which they allowed 14 receptions by Roy Helu. Baltimore has to get their best player involved on offense, and while I expect Rice’s numbers to depressed by the 49ers’ suffocating do, I do think Rice can have enough impact yardage-wise and catching passes to be at least a strong flex play.
• Reggie Bush has scored a touchdown in three straight games, and in the fourth game he had over 100 yards rushing. So he’s been productive, even though his yard per touch rate has decreased the last two weeks. While Dallas is very good at stopping opposing running backs, Bush remains a solid flex play because Miami is finding creative ways to use him around the goalline.

Sit em RB: James Starks, Ryan Grant, et al, Green Bay (at Detroit)

The two-headed running back monster of James Starks and Ryan Grant simply isn’t much of a monster at all. They rarely, if ever, score touchdowns. They don’t rack up great yardage totals to offset the dearth of TD production. And John Kuhn and BJ Raji vulture all the goalline carries.

Plus, Starks is dinged up, and the Detroit defense has been improving some when it comes to holding down opposing running backs. They are in the top half in terms of points allowed. I’d look elsewhere, even if Grant gets the starting job all to himself with Starks out.

James Starks/Ryan Grant fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 75 total yards, 5 receptions, 30 yards

Other sit em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter still has value long-term, especially as a handcuff for Frank Gore owners, but he doesn’t get enough carries as Gore’s backup to warrant starting.
• Maurice Morris…great last name buddy, but enjoy your parting gifts.
• Daniel Thomas is still the running back of the future for Miami, but Reggie Bush is the one scoring touchdowns. Against a stingy Dallas defense, Thomas is probably not worth playing.
• Felix Jones is back. *crickets* On six touches last week he delivered an “explosive” 22 yards. Keep him on your bench. DeMarco Murray is the guy in Dallas now.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Wide Receivers

Start em WR: Torrey Smith, Baltimore (v San Francisco)

You know I’m not big on rookie wide receivers, but I do warm to them later in the season when they prove they can be trusted. Torrey Smith is earning that trust.

Smith had a huge clutch TD against Pittsburgh that built his QB’s faith in him, and then popped for 6 catches, 165 yards, and a TD in a key divisional battle last week. I know that a 3-catch, 28-yard dud against Seattle is sandwiched in there, but Smith is getting the targets and hasn’t caught fewer than three balls since Week 6. There is some risk/reward with him as a deep threat, but the reward is worth it.

And don’t get too scared off by the San Fran defense when it comes to Smith and his buddy Anquan Boldin. Because the 49ers are so stout against the run, teams often take to throwing on them. The 49ers are actually in the bottom half of the league in terms of points allowed to opposing WRs.

Torrey Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 4 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD

Other start em WRs:

• Michael Crabtree and Alex Smith are developing a nice rapport. He may not get into the end zone, but he’ll rack up at least 5-6 catches and 60-70 yards, with upside for more.
• With Miles Austin likely out again, both Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson are top-25 wide receivers.
• Jordy Nelson, even though it goes without saying at this point. Also, keep playing Greg Jennings. I know his last few games have been less than what we expect, but do you really want your Thanksgiving to be ruined because he popped for 100 yards and a TD? No, you don’t.
• I’m not quite sure where that 1-catch dud in Week 11 by Brandon Marshall came from, but it’s the only game this year he’s had fewer than four catches. He stays in your lineup.
• ‘Tron. Also Nate Burleson, who has two straight excellent games and faces the inviting Packers’ defense this week.

Sit em WR: James Jones, Green Bay (at Detroit)

Jones flashed his potential in weeks 3-7 when he averaged 3+ catches and 62 yards per game to go along with three touchdowns. However, in the three games since then Jones has caught just two total passes. This has coincided with Jordy Nelson becoming the most explosive receiver in the NFL, and though I don’t watch Green Bay games I have to think there is some level of causation to that correlation.

I know you’ll be tempted to play Jones because it’s Thanksgiving – and he certainly has TD potential any week, any play – but the targets just aren’t there to justify it right now; plus, Detroit is actually the second-stingiest defense for opposing wide receivers playing on Thanksgiving (after Dallas).

James Jones fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 2 receptions, 35 yards, 0 TD

Other sit em WRs:

• I don’t like any Dolphins receiver not named Brandon Marshall.
• Lee Evans is supposedly back for Baltimore. Whoop-de-doo. Torrey Smith stole his role as deep threat.
• Braylon Edwards let a touchdown slip right through his fingers last week. You can’t start him until he proves he can make an impact.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Tight Ends

Start em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (v Green Bay)

The Chicago Bears give up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Do you know who is second? The Green Bay Packers. This makes Pettigrew an automatic start this week, as does his consistency.

No, Pettigrew has not been as explosive lately as he was earlier in the season, but he’s caught at least three balls in every game but one this year, and he remains a redzone target as he scored a TD last week.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start em TEs:

• The Ravens are actually the stingiest defense against opposing tight ends, so you’re forewarned; still, I’d start Vernon Davis. He’s becoming more and more involved in the passing game, and he has scored in two straight weeks. He’s not an automatic start, but unless you have a top-10 alternative I’d keep him in there.
• Jason Witten. ‘Nuff said.

Sit em TE: Jermichael Finley, Green Bay (at Detroit)

Remember when Jermichael Finley was supposed to be the next Antonio Gates? Since that time, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski have clearly passed him, along with Aaron Hernandez and even the likes of Jermaine Gresham. Finley has talent, but the targets and touchdowns just aren’t there. Plus, Detroit is pretty stingy to opposing tight ends.

Finley has immense potential every week, but it’s crunch time. You need guaranteed production from the tight end spot. I’d look elsewhere but hang onto Finley for depth.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 2 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TD

Other sit em TEs:

• Ed Dickson came out of nowhere to score two TDs two weeks ago against Seattle. That game is sandwiched between games in which Dickson averaged two catches and 15 yards. San Fran is solid against tight ends thanks to the marvelous Patrick Willis. You can do better.
• Anthony Fasano has scored four touchdowns over his last four games, but in three of those games he had only two receptions. Dallas is pretty stingy to opposing TEs. Again, you can do better.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit D/STs

Start em D/ST: San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens

I like both defenses in this game. San Fran is #1 in the league in points allowed (14.5 per game) and Baltimore is #3 (17.6). Plus, neither team’s QB exactly inspires confidence. So expect a physical, low-scoring game, with both defenses looking to make the play that turns the tide and wins it.

If you happen to have both defenses, the edge goes to San Francisco because of the added dimension and potential Ted Ginn brings in the return game.

San Francisco 49ers fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 14 or fewer points, 3+ sacks, 2 turnovers

Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 14 or fewer points, 2+ sacks, 1 turnover

Other start em D/STs:

• The Dallas defense isn’t an automatic start, not after giving up 24 points to Sexy Rexy and the Rexskins, but they are a decent play against Miami.

Sit em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (at Dallas)

I know that the Miami defense has been very good lately, especially last week against Buffalo, but this Dallas offense is light years better than Buffalo’s. Miami has faced Matt Cassel, John Beck, and Ryan Fitzpatrick during their three-game winning streak. This week they face at hot Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Laurent Robinson in Cowboys Stadium. That’s not favorable.

Miami Dolphins fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs:

• Is there anyone who doesn’t expect a shootout in Detroit? Though both defenses have weekly sack and TD potential, it’s a safe bet to expect 60+ points in this game. I wouldn’t want either D playing for me (but Green Bay would be the choice if I had to play one.)

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I’m looking back on my selections, and I just realized I told you to sit a wide receiver and a tight end in what could be the highest-scoring Thanksgiving Day game ever. I’m not re-thinking either suggestion though. The potential is there, but the production just hasn’t been evident on the field to make me trust either Jones or Finley. We’ll see how those picks work out.

And don’t forget about the Thanksgiving Day Turkey Shootout. Click here to enter and make your Thanksgiving Day of football even more exciting.

Jon will be here tomorrow with start/sit advice on the rest of the Week 12 action. The comment section is open for your questions. Try to keep this thread Thanksgiving-specific if you can…although I guess it doesn’t really matter.

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving to all!

The Cowboys final opponents are Miami, Arizona, New York, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and New York again.

Image source: NFLTouchdown.com

Let’s get one thing straight. I am not a disciple of Tony Romo. I think he is a great quarterback, but not an elite quarterback. His numbers tell you he is, but he seems to crumble under pressure. I will go with the Cowboys because I looked at the Giants and Eagles schedules. Wow.

The Giants schedule goes like this: New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, Washington, New York Jets and Dallas. That is absolutely brutal. Maybe they win three of those, and that is optimistic.

The Eagles schedule goes like this: New England, Seattle, Miami, New York Jets, Dallas and Washington. They could win three of those games, but don’t overlook the Redskins, who always rise up to play well against divisional rivals and the Seahawks, who are pesky and have already beaten the Giants and Ravens.

The Redskins schedule…doesn’t matter. They have Rex Grossman as their quarterback (and this guy gesturing…signals?). They will not win the division.

The Cowboys have found an established running game with DeMarco Murray, who looks like he gets shot out of a cannon at times, and Miles Austin will return. Until then, Laurent Robinson has filled in nicely. Don’t forget you still have Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, along with a Rob Ryan defense.

I feel confident the Cowboys will represent the NFC East in the postseason and proceed to be promptly eliminated in the first round.

Maybe it’s the unseasonably warm weather here in Ohio, or the absence of NBA games that were supposed to have already started, or that I haven’t heard a whole lot about this year’s Black Friday mega-deals, but it sure seems like Turkey Day snuck up on me this year.

Of course if you’re reading this article, you are probably almost as excited about watching an entire day of football as you are enjoying the best (and likely biggest) meal of the whole year and the company of loved ones.

Like cooking out and baseball on July 4th, and college football (and hopefully not too much of a hangover) on New Year’s Day, Thanksgiving and NFL football combine to make one of the greatest days of the year for sports fans.

For the third straight year, this is the official image of Thanksgiving Day football on MSF.

So just what can we expect to see as we eat second and third helpings of turkey, stuffing, pumpkin pie, and chocolate chip cookies (my grandma’s cookies are always the perfect way to cap off the meal)?

The NFL really nailed it this year, as we have 3 great games to watch and story lines galore.  Here is everything you need to know to get ready for this year’s Thanksgiving Day NFL action.

Note: Point spread information is current as of late Sunday night.  As the lines move, we will do our best to update the article to provide the most current information possible.

NFL Thanksgiving Day Football TV Schedule

Point Spreads – Kickoff Times – Announcers – Picks & Predictions

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Game Info

• Packers-Lions Date: Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 24th
• Packers-Lions Kickoff Time: 12:30 PM EST
• Packers-Lions TV Network: FOX
• Packers-Lions Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
• Packers-Lions Point Spread: Packers -5.5
• Packers-Lions Over/Under: 55
• MSF: Packers-Lions Preview and Prediction

Packers-Lions Preview and Prediction

Remember when the only think to look forward to about watching the Lions on Thanksgiving was seeing what havoc Barry Sanders would inflict upon their opponent?  And remember when Sanders retired and everyone began lobbying for a different team to take Detroit’s place in the annual Thanksgiving slot?

The 2011 incarnation of the Lions, with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh  has shed all of those ugly memories, morphing into an offensive powerhouse with a penchant for overcoming huge leads and a mean streak on the defensive side.

Fortunately for us fans, the Lions will get to play the undefeated Packers, so the chance for a dramatic finish will be high.

The Packers looked a little less invincible this past week against Tampa Bay than they normally do, so it will be interesting to see what a short week against what is likely the toughest opponent they have faced yet this year will bring.

I expect both teams to be able to move the ball with ease, but I think the Lions will turn the ball over a couple of times and allow Green Bay to get out to a large lead.  Despite the Lions’ ability to overcome double-digit deficits, I see them falling a little short in this one.

• Packers-Lions Spread Pick: Packers -5.5

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys

• Dolphins-Cowboys Date: Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 24th
• Dolphins-Cowboys Kickoff Time: 4:15 PM EST
• Dolphins-Cowboys TV Network: CBS
• Dolphins-Cowboys Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
• Dolphins-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5
• Dolphins-Cowboys Over/Under: 44

Cowboys-Dolphins Preview and Prediction

Just a few weeks ago, this game might have seemed like a dud,  but the Dolphins have surged to 3 straight victories, including this past week’s 35-8 drubbing of the Buffalo Bills.

Once considered the frontrunners in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes, the Dolphins are showing signs of life and competing every week behind quarterback Matt Moore and Reggie Bush, who is starting to resemble the Reggie Bush of years past.

Dallas comes in at 6-4 and tied for the NFC East lead.  Say what you will about the Cowboys’ postseason failures and Tony Romo’s lack of clutch play, the fact is that Romo and his team are dominant in November.  In November, as a starter, Romo is 18-2 with 49 touchdown passes against only 12 interceptions in his career.

The Dolphins are going to come back to earth sometime, and I expect that to be now.  On a short week, traveling to Dallas, Miami will struggle in all phases, and I see Dallas rolling over them and staying atop the NFC East.

• Dolphins-Cowboys Spread Pick: Cowboys -6.5

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens

• 49ers-Ravens Date: Thanksgiving Night, Thursday, November 24th
• 49ers-Ravens Kickoff Time: 8:20 PM EST
• 49ers-Ravens TV Network: NFL Network
• 49ers-Ravens Announcers: Brad Nessler and Mike Mayock
• 49ers-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -3
• 49ers-Ravens Over/Under: 39
• MSF: 49ers-Ravens Preview and Prediction

What more can you ask for in a Thanksgiving evening game (other than for cable companies to all pick up the NFL Network)?

The Brothers Harbaugh square off against one another for the first time as NFL head coaches, with Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers, a surprising 9-1 and the runaway leader of the NFC West traveling to face John Harbaugh’s Ravens, who are tied for the AFC North lead after beating the Cincinnati Bengals last week.

These teams are built similarly, with punishing defenses (the 49ers are 1st against the run, the Ravens are 3rd) and elite, multi-purpose running backs (Frank Gore and Ray Rice).  The winner of this game will likely be the team who is able to have more success running against the other’s front 7.

Of concern for the Ravens is getting Rice consistent touches.  This season, Rice has averaged just over 14 carries per game, which for a star back is not nearly enough.  He is a valuable part of the receiving game too, with 51 receptions, but the Ravens need to find a way to establish Rice early and often.

The Ravens’ game plan lately has been a pass-heavy attack, but Joe Flacco is not Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees; he is not the type of quarterback who can give his team the best chance to win by consistently throwing over 35 times per game.

I think the 49ers will be able to run on Baltimore, especially if Ray Lewis were to miss the game (he is questionable currently with a toe injury that forced him to miss the Cincinnati game).  As long as Alex Smith is able to play conservative, mistake-free football like he has done in the first 10 games this year, I think the 49ers win.

• 49ers-Ravens Spread Pick: 49ers +3

That’s all the information you’ll need to know to enjoy this Thanksgiving’s NFL games.  We at MSF hope you enjoy great food, family, friends, football and fun (holy alliteration!) this Thanksgiving.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

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Follow me on Twitter @keithmullett

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Image credit: footballbabble.com

Maybe it’s the unseasonably warm weather here in Ohio, or the absence of NBA games that were supposed to have already started, or that I haven’t heard a whole lot about this year’s Black Friday mega-deals, but it sure seems like Turkey Day snuck up on me this year.

Of course if you’re reading this article, you are probably almost as excited about watching an entire day of football as you are enjoying the best (and likely biggest) meal of the whole year and the company of loved ones.

Like cooking out and baseball on July 4th, and college football (and hopefully not too much of a hangover) on New Year’s Day, Thanksgiving and NFL football combine to make one of the greatest days of the year for sports fans.

For the third straight year, this is the official image of Thanksgiving Day football on MSF.

So just what can we expect to see as we eat second and third helpings of turkey, stuffing, pumpkin pie, and chocolate chip cookies (my grandma’s cookies are always the perfect way to cap off the meal)?

The NFL really nailed it this year, as we have 3 great games to watch and story lines galore. Here is everything you need to know to get ready for this year’s Thanksgiving Day NFL action.

Note: Point spread information is current as of late Sunday night. As the lines move, we will do our best to update the article to provide the most current information possible.

NFL Thanksgiving Day Football TV Schedule

Point Spreads – Kickoff Times – Announcers – Picks & Predictions

—

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Game Info

• Packers-Lions Date: Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 24th
• Packers-Lions Kickoff Time: 12:30 PM EST
• Packers-Lions TV Network: FOX
• Packers-Lions Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman
• Packers-Lions Point Spread: Packers -5.5
• Packers-Lions Over/Under: 55
• MSF: Packers-Lions Preview and Prediction

Packers-Lions Preview and Prediction

Remember when the only think to look forward to about watching the Lions on Thanksgiving was seeing what havoc Barry Sanders would inflict upon their opponent? And remember when Sanders retired and everyone began lobbying for a different team to take Detroit’s place in the annual Thanksgiving slot?

The 2011 incarnation of the Lions, with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh has shed all of those ugly memories, morphing into an offensive powerhouse with a penchant for overcoming huge leads and a mean streak on the defensive side.

Fortunately for us fans, the Lions will get to play the undefeated Packers, so the chance for a dramatic finish will be high.

The Packers looked a little less invincible this past week against Tampa Bay than they normally do, so it will be interesting to see what a short week against what is likely the toughest opponent they have faced yet this year will bring.

I expect both teams to be able to move the ball with ease, but I think the Lions will turn the ball over a couple of times and allow Green Bay to get out to a large lead. Despite the Lions’ ability to overcome double-digit deficits, I see them falling a little short in this one.

• Packers-Lions Spread Pick: Packers -5.5

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys

• Dolphins-Cowboys Date: Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 24th
• Dolphins-Cowboys Kickoff Time: 4:15 PM EST
• Dolphins-Cowboys TV Network: CBS
• Dolphins-Cowboys Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms
• Dolphins-Cowboys Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5
• Dolphins-Cowboys Over/Under: 44

Cowboys-Dolphins Preview and Prediction

Just a few weeks ago, this game might have seemed like a dud, but the Dolphins have surged to 3 straight victories, including this past week’s 35-8 drubbing of the Buffalo Bills.

Once considered the frontrunners in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes, the Dolphins are showing signs of life and competing every week behind quarterback Matt Moore and Reggie Bush, who is starting to resemble the Reggie Bush of years past.

Dallas comes in at 6-4 and tied for the NFC East lead. Say what you will about the Cowboys’ postseason failures and Tony Romo’s lack of clutch play, the fact is that Romo and his team are dominant in November. In November, as a starter, Romo is 18-2 with 49 touchdown passes against only 12 interceptions in his career.

The Dolphins are going to come back to earth sometime, and I expect that to be now. On a short week, traveling to Dallas, Miami will struggle in all phases, and I see Dallas rolling over them and staying atop the NFC East.

• Dolphins-Cowboys Spread Pick: Cowboys -6.5

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens

• 49ers-Ravens Date: Thanksgiving Night, Thursday, November 24th
• 49ers-Ravens Kickoff Time: 8:20 PM EST
• 49ers-Ravens TV Network: NFL Network
• 49ers-Ravens Announcers: Brad Nessler and Mike Mayock
• 49ers-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -3
• 49ers-Ravens Over/Under: 39
• MSF: 49ers-Ravens Preview and Prediction

What more can you ask for in a Thanksgiving evening game (other than for cable companies to all pick up the NFL Network)?

The Brothers Harbaugh square off against one another for the first time as NFL head coaches, with Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers, a surprising 9-1 and the runaway leader of the NFC West traveling to face John Harbaugh’s Ravens, who are tied for the AFC North lead after beating the Cincinnati Bengals last week.

These teams are built similarly, with punishing defenses (the 49ers are 1st against the run, the Ravens are 3rd) and elite, multi-purpose running backs (Frank Gore and Ray Rice). The winner of this game will likely be the team who is able to have more success running against the other’s front 7.

Of concern for the Ravens is getting Rice consistent touches. This season, Rice has averaged just over 14 carries per game, which for a star back is not nearly enough. He is a valuable part of the receiving game too, with 51 receptions, but the Ravens need to find a way to establish Rice early and often.

The Ravens’ game plan lately has been a pass-heavy attack, but Joe Flacco is not Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees; he is not the type of quarterback who can give his team the best chance to win by consistently throwing over 35 times per game.

I think the 49ers will be able to run on Baltimore, especially if Ray Lewis were to miss the game (he is questionable currently with a toe injury that forced him to miss the Cincinnati game). As long as Alex Smith is able to play conservative, mistake-free football like he has done in the first 10 games this year, I think the 49ers win.

• 49ers-Ravens Spread Pick: 49ers +3

That’s all the information you’ll need to know to enjoy this Thanksgiving’s NFL games. We at MSF hope you enjoy great food, family, friends, football and fun (holy alliteration!) this Thanksgiving.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

*********

Follow me on Twitter @keithmullett

*********

Image credit: footballbabble.com

Without question, the story of the first half of the season (other than this) has been the ascent of the Detroit Lions.

They went 0-16 three years ago, then 2-14 in Jim Schwartz’s first year, then 6-10 last year; and now halfway through their 2011 slate Detroit, sitting at 6-2, is a bona fide contender in the NFC. And the Lions aren’t just an empty record either. They have the skill, attitude, reputation, and right now the health (knock on wood) to suggest that they aren’t going away.

So in honor of the Motor City Mufasas, and their roaring wreakers of wreckage Ndamukong Suh and Calvin Johnson, I give to you my Midseason NFL Power Rankings, with each team presented alongside a Motown classic that sums up the first half of its season.

The great Berry Gordy and Ndamukong Suh

1. Green Bay Packers (7-0) – “Higher Ground” by Stevie Wonder

After an uneven regular season in 2010, the Packers caught fire all the way to the Super Bowl. Along the way, Aaron Rodgers nudged his way into the Manning-Brady-Brees stratosphere of NFL quarterbacks.

Through seven games in 2011, the Packers haven’t missed a beat, and Rodgers has catapulted himself into the rarest of air: the undisputed #1 quarterback in football, and he’s on pace to complete the most efficient statistical season a quarterback has ever had.

As Stevie sings:

Lovers keep on lovin’
Believers keep on believin’
Sleepers just stop sleepin’

…

Gonna keep on tryin’
Till I reach my highest ground

Indeed, the Packers/Rodgers lovers and believers need to keep doing what they’re doing, and any remaining sleepers need to wake up to the reality that Rodgers is the best player in football.

If he hasn’t already reached the highest ground, it’s going to be amazing to see just how deadly the Packers’ offense is once he’s there.

2. San Francisco 49ers (6-1) – “Reach Out, I’ll Be There” by The Four Tops

Know this about the resurgent 49ers and their badass first year head coach Jim Harbaugh: at the end of the game, reach out and he’ll be the there…ready to shake your head after kicking your team’s butt. (Just try not to take it personally.)

And in case you needed any more reason why this is the perfect song choice for the 2011 take-no-prisoners 49ers, pay attention to the lyrics. Replace “girl” and “darling” with “Alex” (for Alex Smith), “I’ll” with “We’ll”, plus a few other subtle changes, and it might as well be a pregame Harbaugh speech to his much-maligned but improving QB.

Now if you feel that you can’t go on,
Because all of your hope is gone,
And your life is filled with much confusion,
Until happiness is just an illusion,
And your world around is crumbling down, Alex,
(Reach out) Come on Alex reach on out for me,
(Reach out) Reach out for me,
We’ll be there with a running game that will shelter you,
We’ll be there with a defense that will see you through,

See what I mean?

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) – “Ain’t Nothing Like the Real Thing” by Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell

I’m not sure what that was from Pittsburgh in Week 1, but it was most certainly not the real Steelers that we’ve come to know and appreciate.

Over the Steelers’ last four games though, we’ve started to see the real Steelers emerge again, just with a little more passing than running, and it’s been a good reminder that in the NFL there ain’t nothing like the real thing; and it doesn’t get much more real in professional football than the Steelers.

4. Detroit Lions (6-2) – “Just My Imagination” by The Temptations

For years, decades really, Lions fans have had to watch the success of other franchises and pretend it was their own. Losing season after losing season, all the Lions had was their imagination if they wanted to cheer for a winner.

Not anymore.

Now all Lions fans need to do is use their imaginations to conjure up a future in which Matthew Stafford plays 16 games, because if he does, this team is ready to make its long-awaited return to the postseason. And they won’t be an easy out.

5. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) – “I Second That Emotion” by Smokey Robinson and The Miracles

After the Ravens’ offense sputtered against the Jags, Terrell Suggs publicly questioned the offensive gameplan. Surprisingly, Ravens coach John Harbaugh seconded Suggs’ emotion, agreeing that Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin needed to get the ball more.

One week later Cam Cameron and Joe Flacco got the notion, and the Ravens are back to their winning ways after Rice scored three TDs and Boldin topped 100 yards receiving.

6. New England Patriots (5-2) – “It’s The Same Old Song” by The Four Tops

An offense built around their statuesque quarterback who throws 40+ times every game, without much of a running game to speak of? Check.

A defense that gives up tons of yards, hopes to be “bend but don’t break” as a best case scenario, and is undeniably poor in the secondary and at rushing the passer? Check.

Sound familiar? That’s pretty much what the Patriots have been for the last three seasons, and for the last three seasons they’ve underwhelmed fans and pundits alike once January has rolled around. I’m struggling to find any reason to think this season will end any differently.

7. New Orleans Saints (5-3) – “What’s Going On” by Marvin Gaye

I don’t really feel like New Orleans deserves to be ranked this high, especially after what we witnessed from them last week and in their recent loss to Tampa Bay. Sandwiched in between those two defeats, however, was a thorough ass-kicking of the Indianapolis Colts; and anytime you beat another NFL team 62-7 it means, well, something.

The Saints still have Drew Brees, they still have weapons galore on offense, and they still have Sean Payton calling the shots. This outfit won a Super Bowl not too long ago, and they deserve the benefit of the doubt…for now. But they need to figure out what’s going on before far too many mothers, brothers, and fathers in The Bayou are left crying from another debacle like that loss to the Rams.

8. New York Giants (5-2) – “Ball of Confusion” by The Temptations

Is any good team more of a ball of confusion from year to year, week to week, and even quarter to quarter than the New York Giants? No.

Yet despite the ups and downs, here are the Giants sitting atop the NFC East with Eli Manning playing the best football of his career. Go figure.

9. Houston Texas (5-3) – “It Takes Two” by Marvin Gaye and Kim Weston

The song choice for the Texans is obvious from the first two lines:

One can have a dream, baby
Two can make that dream so real

For a while now, the Texans and their fans have had dreams of going to the playoffs, but unfortunately they only had one side of the ball that functioned competently. Not anymore. Wade Phillips has taken a defense that was an embarrassment last year and made it respectable, even weathering the loss of Mario Williams.

It does indeed take two – an offense and a defense – to make playoff dreams real. Could this be the season it finally happens in Houston?

10. Buffalo Bills (5-2) – “Papa Was a Rolling Stone” by The Temptations

The “papa” of these young Bills is head coach Chan Gailey, and he has indeed been a rolling stone during his coaching career. Buffalo is the 19th different coaching job Gailey has had since 1974. I know how transient of a profession coaching can be, but that is a lot of moving around.

Regardless, he has these Bills on the right track, sitting atop the AFC East.

11. New York Jets (4-3) – “Sugar Pie, Honey Bunch” by The Four Tops

I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not sure the Jets have earned this high a spot in the rankings. They are on a two game winning streak, but beating the Dolphins and the apparently hapless Chargers isn’t all that impressive. Still, the Jets and their bombastic head coach cannot seem to help themselves: they always talk, they always struggle for parts of seasons, yet they always get it going when the weather gets cold. They’ve made two straight AFC Championship Games, so we can’t count them out yet.

(Note: there are also plenty of jokes that could be made in reference to Rex Ryan enjoying slices of sugar pie and handfuls of honey bunch, but I’ll refrain. Who do I look like…Joe Namath?)

12. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) – “Uptight (Everything’s Alright)” by Steve Wonder

I know that fans in Cincinnati and all over the AFC West and NFC South are going to be apoplectic at the under-.500 Eagles being 12th above their favorite teams, but what can I say? This team is loaded with talent, and I think they’d beat all of the teams below them (including more than a few above them) if they played right now.

So, Philly fans, what are you so uptight about? As long as you’ve got Andy Reid, everything is all right. Until the playoffs at least…

13. Atlanta Falcons (4-3) – “Shotgun” by Jr. Walker and the All Stars

I predicted that the Falcons would miss the playoffs before the season started, and I’m not backing off that prediction at all, though I have been impressed by their last two victories.

During the offseason, the Falcons tried to remake their offense from a tank into a shotgun with the hyperathletic Julio Jones added to the team at a high cost. It appeared early on that Ryan and the Falcons were trying to justify the cost while forgetting about their bread and butter: Michael Turner.

Things have changed.

Turner is back leading the offense and the Falcons are winning. The question is how long can Turner withstand another season of pounding. We’ll see.

14. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) – “Ain’t No Mountain High Enough” by Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell

The Bengals had to deal with QB turmoil all offseason, limped into the regular season with rookies leading them at QB and WR, have had to deal with Cedric Benson’s continued legal troubles, and they lost corner Jonathan Joseph in the offseason. Also, certain Midwestern sports bloggers predicted the Bengals would finish with the worst record in the league. Yet all Marvin Lewis and the Bengals have shown is that there ain’t no football mountain high enough to keep this underrated team down this season.

At least so far.

Cincy’s wins are against Cleveland, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Seattle, and Indianapolis, and they still have four games coming up against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. This is why I’m not sold on the Bengals and have them at 14th. But if they can keep climbing mountains, this could be the most unlikely playoff team of 2011.

15. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) – “Since I Lost My Baby” by The Temptations

The Chiefs have reeled off four straight wins since I ranked them #1 in my inaugural Suck 4 Luck Power Rankings, a winning streak that has moved them all the way into a first place tie in the AFC West. This has Chiefs fans seeing sun shining (yes, plenty of light), a new day dawning (so sunny and bright), and even birds signing and children playing.

But the reality is that without young stars Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry, and Tony Moeaki, all of whom the Chiefs lost early in the year to season-ending injuries, the Chiefs’ chances of going any further than they did last year – a first round playoff blowout – are slim to none.

16. San Diego Chargers (4-3) – “Hello” by Lionel Richie

It’s fitting that the Chargers are one spot behind the Chiefs, because they were one successful QB-center exchange away from beating them last night.

If I had time, I would create a YouTube video with the ball Rivers’ fumbled away singing this Lionel Richie ballad to him. It’s the kind of thing the Internet was invented for. Can’t you just see the ball rolling around on the ground plaintively singing these words to Rivers while the QB laments his “worst day ever“:

Hello!
Is it me you’re looking for?
’cause I wonder where you are
And I wonder what you do
Are you somewhere feeling lonely?
Or is someone loving you?

17. Oakland Raiders (4-3) – “Ain’t Too Proud To Beg” by The Temptations

The Raiders are a hard team to figure out right now since we have no idea a) what they will get from Carson Palmer and b) if their offensive workhorse Darren McFadden can stay healthy enough all year to keep the pressure off of Palmer.

But we do know one thing: the Raiders were not begging nor pleading for anyone’s sympathy once Jason Campbell went down. They slept on Mike Brown’s doorstep and even let everyone laugh, because they wanted Carson Palmer any way they could get him. Now they have him, and we’ll see if they can just keep winning, baby.

18. Dallas Cowboys (3-4) – “Let’s Get It On” by Marvin Gaye

Did the Cowboys even have a Week 8 game? They did? Really? Because the only time I saw a Cowboy show up last week is Tony Romo when he announced that he and his new wife are expecting.

So since I have nothing constructive to say about Dallas’ no show on Sunday night, let’s honor the soon-to-be parents. Take it away Marvin.

19. Chicago Bears (4-3) – “You Keep Me Hanging On” by The Supremes

I tend not to trust teams that have severe offensive line issues, which is why the Bears fall towards the back of the teams bunched at 3-4 wins.

I also wouldn’t trust the Bears if I were Matt Forte, who I think is much closer to Adrian Peterson than Chris Johnson in terms of being deserving of a new contract. Can anyone blame Forte for feeling like the Bears are just keeping him hanging on? I mean really Jerry Angelo. If you’re not going to #paytheman, set him free why don’t ya?

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) – “Brick House” by The Commodores

Tampa Bay was another supposedly up-and-coming team that I didn’t trust heading into the season. They’ve scratched together four wins, but they have looked pretty bad along the way at times.

So in honor of the bricks they’ve thrown up against San Francisco and the first half of the Chicago game in London, not to mention Josh Freeman’s 10 interceptions, here are The Commodores singing about bricks in a much different context.

21. Minnesota Vikings (2-6) – “All Night Long” by Lionel Richie

You know that Adrian Peterson is called “AD” because he can run all day long. Now that Minnesota has handed the reins of its offense over to rookie Christian Ponder, Peterson may have to run all day and all night long to help ease the rook’s transition.

Peterson is more than capable, and the Vikings – who have played better than their record – are more than capable of winning 4-5 of their remaining games if Ponder can just provide adequate play under center.

22. St. Louis Rams (1-6) – “You Can’t Hurry Love” by The Supremes

No, I’m not insane. I’m well aware that before last weekend’s trouncing of the Saints, the Rams hadn’t beaten anyone and hadn’t even really come close. Just consider me to be buying low on the Rams, and when they finish with 5-6 wins, remember that you heard it here first.

You can’t hurry a connection between a new offensive coordinator, an offensive line, and a young QB, but Sam Bradford and Josh McDaniels will get everyone on the same page. Having Brandon Lloyd will help, and having a leader like Steven Jackson to make sure no one mails it in will also keep these Rams on a forward trajectory all season.

23. Carolina Panthers (2-6) – “ABC” by The Jackson 5

Am I drinking the Cam Newton Kool-Aid after 8 games? You’re dadgum right I am, so much so that I came up with 20 teams who, hypothetically speaking of course, should trade their QB for right now for Newton.

I did not think Newton would have an easy transition to the NFL, but he’s made playing quarterback look as easy as A-B-C, 1-2-3. What he has not found so easy to do yet is win, but that will come. He needs more experience and a better team around him, but the Panthers are a team on the rise that no one will want to face in the second half of the season.

24. Tennessee Titans (4-3) – “Signed, Sealed, Delivered, I’m Yours” by Stevie Wonder

In case you were wondering, no, I’m not sold on the Titans.

A win over the Colts does not impress me, nor did the Titans’ previous two non-competitive games against Pittsburgh and Houston. This team was looking good when Kenny Britt was around and emerging as a top receiver, but they seem lost without him.

But hey, at least Chris Johnson is signed, sealed, delivered, and yours, right Tennessee? Or not…

25. Cleveland Browns (3-4) – “Money (That’s What I Want)” by Barrett Strong

In case you hadn’t heard, money is what Peyton Hillis wants. He is not, however, willing to play through strep throat or maintain community commitments in his quest to leverage one partial good season into, apparently, $10 million per yer.

I probably shouldn’t be so hard on the guy. If I were a running back for the Browns, against whom defenses can load up eight men in the box on every play, I might not be so motivated to play either.

26. Washington Redskins (3-4) – “Mercy, Mercy Me” by Marvin Gaye

When your only quarterback choices are Rex Grossman or John Beck, how can Redskins fans or even Mike Shanahan himself say anything other than mercy, mercy me?

The Redskins got off to a fast start this season, but things ain’t what they used to be. With such putrid play under center and so many injuries on offense, a turnaround doesn’t appear to be coming. Redskins fans will just have to keep wondering where did all the blue skies go?

27. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) – “Shop Around” by Smokey Robinson and The Miracles

So the Jaguars beat a disinterested Baltimore team in a defensive slopfest a few weeks back. So what?

This team is still going nowhere fast, and even the one positive Jags fans might have been able to take from this season – that the team had finally found a franchise QB – doesn’t seem to be coming to fruition. Based on what I’ve seen from Blaine Gabbert so far this year, I’d say to the Jags that they’d better shop around.

28. Seattle Seahawks (2-5) – “I Want You Back” by The Jackson 5

In Pete Carroll’s first season, the Seahawks made an improbable run to the second round of the NFC Playoffs thanks to playing the in the terrible NFC West. No one in the NFC West seemingly did much to improve themselves in the offseason (who saw the 49ers run coming?), so what does Seattle do to keep the forward momentum going? They get rid of Matt Hasselbeck to turn their most important position on the field over to Charvaris Jackhurst.

Think they might want Hasselbeck and his 89.2 QB rating back now?

29. Arizona Cardinals (1-6) – “What Becomes Of The Brokenhearted” by Jimmy Ruffin

In Super Bowl 43, the Arizona Cardinals indeed became the brokenhearted when Ben Roethlisberger’s pass connected with Santonio Holmes in the corner of the end zone. So what becomes of the brokenhearted in football, who had a good QB who’s now departed? Everything goes to hell and a handbasket, apparently.

After your borderline Hall of Fame quarterback retires and you suffer through an awful season with basically no QB, you know you’ve got to find some kind of peace of mind for your All-World wide receiver. So you overpay for a guy who hasn’t proven he can be a competent starter, he doesn’t get any better, and all the while your defense gets worse and worse.

So, again, what becomes of the brokenhearted? In the case of Cardinals fans, you just go back to how things were before.

30. Denver Broncos (2-5) – “Dancing In The Streets” by Martha and the Vandellas

No matter what happens at the end of the Tim Tebow experience, they’ll be dancing in Dennnnnnver…and there will still surely be opinions everywhere.

Either fans of Tim Tebow will be dancing because he’s proven his worth as a starting QB in the NFL, or the Johns Fox and Elway will be dancing because they can jettison Tebow and get a QB who fits their ideal.

But either way, dancing.

31. Miami Dolphins (0-7) – “Stop! In The Name Of Luck!” by The Supremes

Do you see what I did with the title there?

This is what every Dolphins fan is imploring their team to do every time they have a promising drive or a second half lead. So far, the Dolphins have proven to be epic failures in the 4th quarters of games, which may just be the best thing for the franchise’s future.

Though the players and coaches don’t want to hear it, nor should they, Dolfans and owner Stephen Ross would like the team to stop coming so damn close to winning, and they certainly would like the Colts to stop losing…all in the name of Luck.

32. Indianapolis Colts (0-8) – “Where Did Our Love Go?” by The Supremes

Yep, two straight songs by The Supremes to end it. And why not? At this point I’m not convinced that on the football field Diana Ross and The Supremes would do any worse that Curtis Painter and The Colts or Matt Moore and the Dolphins.

So many lyrics snippets from this song could very well be things that Colts players have uttered verbatim during one of their eight horrific losses this season, with the their plaintive utterances directed at either Peyton Manning or their fans, who abandon them more and more with each demoralizing loss.

Baby, baby
Baby don’t leave me
Ooh, please don’t leave me
All by myself

…

Now that I surrender
So helplessly

…

Where did our love go
And all your promisses
Of a love forever more

You get the idea.

But if all Colts fans have to endure in between decades of success with franchise QBs is one terrible season, I and many others will resent them more than we already do.

###

There are my rankings, and each team’s corresponding Motown classic.

As always, I encourage your agreement, disagreement, and constructive criticisms below, both for the rankings and the song choices.

And now, because it’s one of my all-time favorite Motown songs but I couldn’t find a great team to assign it too, I’ll send you off into the comment section with one more classic tune from the great Marvin Gaye.

This is a question I’ve been thinking about a lot over the past several weeks, as I continue to be more and more impressed (and surprised) by how well Cam Newton is transitioning to the NFL in his first season.

Cam Newton’s Impressive Start

Frankly, I did not think that Newton was going to become a good NFL quarterback. I certainly did not think it would happen this quickly. But this is why I blog about the NFL in my underpants while typing with Cheetos-stained fingers and other people get paid to scout and draft players*.

* – Of course, plenty of people who do not blog about the NFL in their underpants with Cheetos-stained fingers, and who get paid to scout players, agreed with my assessment about Newton. This just goes to show how inexact a science scouting quarterbacks can be. Except for this guy.

As good as he’s been,nobody is ready to put Cam Newton into Canton yet. It takes more than 8 statistically strong games to classify someone as an elite QB, especially when six of those games have resulted in losses.

In fact, we’re going to learn a lot about Newton over these final 8 weeks while the Panthers essentially “play out the string” and Newton is forced to endure the first losing season of his football career. Leading your team in spite of adversity is one of the most important attributes for a successful NFL QB. We’ll see if Newton has that ability. So far he’s given us no reason to doubt him.

Certainly there is no reason to doubt Newton’s physical skills. He is passing for nearly 300 yards per game (299.1), completing 60.6% of his passes, and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. Those are solid numbers for any quarterback, let alone a rookie, and they are made even more impressive when his superlative running stats added to the discussion: 5.1 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns.

And the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Whereas Tim Tebow’s numbers are not nearly as poor as you might think, and in fact compare favorably to several Hall of Famers’ stats through five starts, Tebow hasn’t looked at all like an NFL QB. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has. He’s played with poise throughout games, including late, and he’s shown that he can make all the throws. He also has shown the ability to hit guys for big plays down the field when they are a open, which is an absolute requisite skill for a quarterback in the NFL. When a QB has a chance to make a big play, it must be made more often than not; simple as that.

Newton has been far from perfect, and he has plenty of growing to do, but I don’t think anyone is anything but highly impressed with his first eight games as an NFL quarterback. Many may not have been as low on Newton as I was before the season, but I doubt anyone other than Cam himself expected this kind of success out of the gate.

And all of this leads me back to my original question: how many NFL teams would trade their QB right now for Cam Newton?

Hypothetically Speaking…

For our purposes, assume that everything is how it is (team records, contracts, rosters, coaches, etc) and that every NFL team is given the option of swapping its current QB right now for Newton. I admit that is 100% ridiculous because Carolina wouldn’t trade Cam Newton for anyone (except maybe Aaron Rodgers…), but humor me for the sake of discussion. The result of this hypothetical transaction would be Newton quarterbacking the team for the rest of this season, in place of their current QB, and then being their QB through the rest of his rookie contract.

There are a number of easy answers on both sides, teams that wouldn’t even think twice about saying yes or no:

• Automatic No: New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York Giants
• Automatic Yes: Miami, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, Washington, Seattle

I shouldn’t have to defend any of the automatic “no” choices. Each team has a Super Bowl-winning QB, and each team feels it is a contender this season. As tantalized as they may be by Newton, none of these teams would trade their guy for him. (And anyone who doesn’t think Eli deserves this kind of respect is, in my opinion, crazy.)

As for the automatic yeses, I can maybe-possibly see some saying that Tennessee and Jacksonville have “QBs of the future” in Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, but both teams would have rather had Newton in the draft and surely would rather have him now. These and the others are absolute no-brainers to me.

Now let’s go one-by-one through the remaining teams and figure out a) if they would trade their current QB for Cam Newton, and b) if they should trade their current QB for Cam Newton, because I bet the answers won’t often be the same. Of course these are all just my opinions based on how I see each team’s situation.

As always, I encourage disagreement, discussion, and even constructive criticism. That’s what comment sections are for. And there is a poll at the end of this post so we can crowdsource some kind of consensus for the non-obvious teams.

Here goes…

Buffalo Bills – Ryan Fitzpatrick (current record: 5-2)

The Bills just locked Fitzpatrick up to a long-term contract that will pay him $24 million and keep him as the signal caller in Buffalo for at least the next 2-3 years. Considering the deal Arizona signed Kevin Kolb to in the offseason, Fitzpatrick certainly deserves this contract. He has passed for 1,739 yards this year and twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and he’s led Buffalo to first place in the AFC East. There is perhaps concern that Fitzpatrick is playing over his head, as his current completion rate is 8 points higher than his career average, and his QB rating is 20 points higher than his career average, but Fitzpatrick also could just be showing the normal progression that a good young NFL quarterback will make.

Personally, I’m not sold on Fitzpatrick as a top-tier option for the future who can compete against the likes of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning If He Plays Again (his new name). Fitzpatrick is a solid guy who can transition you from one franchise QB to the next, but I don’t think he is the type of QB who will make you a winner year in, year out. Cam Newton may be. But with the Bills sitting in first place in the AFC East, and the good feelings of the contract still fresh, I don’t think they’d make the move even though I would.

• Would they? No
• Should they? Yes

New York Jets – Mark Sanchez (4-3)

This is one of the more intriguing ones.

Even though Mark Sanchez has really done nothing to show that he can or will become a top-tier NFL quarterback (54.7% completions, 41 TD:39 INT for career), he has ridden the coattails of a great defense and an above-average running game to two straight AFC title games. His coach continues to profess confidence in him, and I think would rather win with “his guy” Sanchez, or die trying, than admit he was wrong and bring in another QB…at least right now.

Simply put: I think most objective people would make this trade in a heartbeat, and maybe the Jets front office would force it to happen; but I think Rex Ryan is so dug in with Sanchez that he’d do everything to veto it and give Sanchez another chance to finish the job this year. (I’ll be curious to hear from Jets fans on this one…)

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

Cincinnati Bengals – Andy Dalton (5-2)

Here is another one where short-term success might lead to myopic thinking.

The Bengals are, shockingly, sitting at 5-2 with their red-haired rookie QB and glue-handed rookie WR leading the offense. The Bengals’ defense has been great so far this season, but Dalton has been far from just a caretaker. He’s thrown 9 TDs and is completing 62.4% of his passes. Dalton’s sprint out of the gate has been nothing short of shocking.

But here is where I throw a little cold water on the fire: Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Seattle. Buffalo is good, the other four teams are not. So do we really know how good Dalton is? I don’t think so. In his one start against a god defense this year, Week 3 versus San Francisco, he was putrid. We’ll know a lot more about Dalton after his four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Like many teams, Cincy would have jumped at the chance to draft Cam Newton, but their first place positioning in the AFC North, and the fans’ growing attachment to Dalton, plus their history of personnel ineptitude, lead me to believe that the Bengals would forgo the chance to get Newton to hang onto Dalton. It would be a mistake.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes

As you can see, I have little faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, or Andy Dalton, at least in relation to Cam Newton; but I also have little faith that any of their teams would trade them for Newton.

This next one though might be the most intriguing of all.

Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco (5-2)

Ever since Joe Flacco has taken over as QB in Baltimore, the Ravens’ offense has been as up-and-down as any offense in the NFL. Flacco has seven games in which he has tossed three or more touchdowns. He also 24 games in which he’s thrown zero touchdowns, including four playoff games (though he often gets credited with being a “winning” playoff QB). All the while, Baltimore has had a good-to-great defense and a solid running game.

Now in his fourth year, and with just one TD pass in his last four games, can the Ravens and team leaders like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs really still have that much confidence in Flacco? I know they call him “Joe Cool” because he never seems rattled, but that’s mostly because he barely looks like he has a pulse at times. Cam Newton also never gets rattled, but he plays with an energy and smile that are both infectious. Yes, I’m one of those who believes that how you “look” and what your body language says means something when you’re the QB. Whatever Flacco may have over Newton in experience is negated by his comatose on-field appearance.

All of this is to say that I would, in a heartbeat, trade Flacco for Newton if I was the Ravens. After the last four games, and with Lewis especially running out of time, I think the Ravens would too.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning (0-8)

Of course the Colts would trade Curtis Painter straight up for Cam Newton. Duh. But what’s the fun in that? The real juicy question would be, right this very moment, would the Colts trade Peyton Manning If He Plays Again for Newton? And the answer is that none of us have enough information to answer. It would all come down to Manning’s health.

If there is even an iota of a chance that he can come back and play at 80-85% of his previous effectiveness, Indy would hold onto Peyton. But if they doubt he ever plays again, even if he wants to and is working like the dickens to get back, wouldn’t Indy have to trade for Cam as opposed to waiting around to see if they suck enough for Luck?

Ultimately, I think the uncertainty would tip the scales in favor of keeping Manning, and that’s the right call. It feels like there is something unfinished about Manning’s tenure in Indianapolis, and though I logically know that neck injuries can end careers, I’d still be shocked if Manning never suits up for Indy again. So I can’t see Indy pulling the trigger on this move. And with the team possibly positioning itself to draft Andrew Luck anyway, there would be no reason to trade Manning before they know as much as possible about his potential comeback.

I anticipate a lot of debate and perhaps disagreement about this one. In fact, I’m already starting to disagree with myself. I better just move along.

• Would they? No
• Should they? No

Houston Texans – Matt Schaub (5-3)

I don’t think for a second that Houston would even entertain this thought, not with Schaub and Kubiak finally on the cusp of making it to the playoffs. As good/bland as Schaub may be, good/bland isn’t necessarily an awful thing for a QB to be on a team that has a great running game, an elite WR, and a strong defense. This is the first time Houston has had all three working in the same season, and Schaub is the right guy to lead them. I wouldn’t mess with what they have going right now, not with the AFC South up for grabs this year and into the future, and I don’t think they would either.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

San Diego Chargers – Philip Rivers (4-2)

Coming into this season it would have seemed laughable for Philip Rivers to be on this list, and perhaps it still is, but Rivers has thrown 7 TDs against 9 INTs this year, and it’s not like he has a Super Bowl title or many playoff skins on the wall to grant him immunity from at least entering this discussion.

Still, I doubt there is a chance the Chargers would seriously consider it. Rivers has a strong regular season track record over multiple seasons, and he has undoubtedly been hurt by Antonio Gates’ absence early this season. Just like I don’t think teams should overreact to a fast early season start and overrate their players (as may be the case right now in Buffalo and Cincy), I don’t think teams should underrate their players because of a slow start.

The irony of ironies, of course, is that the slow-starting Chargers are off to a fast 4-2 start during the season when their QB has more or less stunk. Go figure.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No

Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Vick (3-4)

Another one that is fascinating to think about. The Eagles went all-in on this season and are just now starting to dig themselves out of their early season hole. As tempting as it might be to get Newton, who is similar to Vick but with 6-7 years less mileage, I can’t see Andy Reid doing it. Vick is the better choice for this season and the Eagles are in it to win it in 2011.

That said, I think Newton is showing the ability to do a lot of the things Vick couldn’t or wouldn’t do early in his career. I’d love to see what Reid could do with a guy like Newton, who is not quite the runner Vick is but who is light years ahead of where Vick was as a passer in his rookie season. Just because the Eagles picked this year as the year to go for it all doesn’t mean they should necessarily mortgage a chance to improve themselves for the long term. And is Vick really playing so well that Newton couldn’t come close to replicating him, thus keeping the Eagles in contention this year? I don’t think so.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo (3-4)

Whatever my answer is here it is sure to stir up some controversy, just because that’s how any discussions about Tony Romo are sure to go.

I’ve always been a Romo supporter, thinking that his critics didn’t give him enough credit for being one of the top 10 QBs in the league. While I still think Romo is an above average QB, I’m not as sold on him anymore as a potential champion. Sure, with the right supporting cast he could win a Super Bowl – hell, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl – but I’m no longer sure that Romo can lead a franchise to a Super Bowl, and there is a big difference.

I don’t know if Cam Newton can lead a team to a Super Bowl either. It’s way to early to even consider such questions. But we did just see him lead his college team to a championship in the toughest conference in all of college football, all while rumors and innuendo and investigations were swirling around him constantly. Newton’s got it, whatever it is, and Tony Romo hasn’t proven that he does. So wouldn’t it be worth taking a chance on Newton if you’re convinced Romo probably can’t be the guy to lead a champion?

The answer to this one comes down to your belief in Romo. I no longer believe. Give me Cam. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, Jerry Jones probably still believes in Romo. At the least, he believes in his own ego and won’t want to admit Romo can’t get it done. Hell, he wouldn’t even trade Martellus Bennett to Cincinnati for a second round pick. Why would he trade Romo for Newton?

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford (6-2)

I considered putting the Lions in the automatic no category, but Mr. Glass didn’t deserve to be considered on par with Brady, Ben, Aaron Rogers, and Drew Brees. He hasn’t played a full season yet, and he hasn’t been so transcendent when he has played that Detroit wouldn’t at least consider the move.

I don’t think they’d do it though. Even with Stafford making way more money than Cam, he is the guy they have built around, and I don’t think the Lions would shake up the franchise that drastically when it is finally experiencing a true ascension.

As for me, I’d do it. Cam is showing that he knows how to utilize a top-fight receiver, and he he does not carry the same injury-prone reputation of Stafford. Add in the cost savings of Newton’s contract over Stafford’s, and I’d much rather have the rookie over the third year guy, even for the rest of the this year and certainly beyond.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Chicago Bears – Jay Cutler (4-3)

See the entry above about Joe Flacco, replace his name with “Jay Cutler” and replace “Ray Lewis” with “Brian Urlacher”. There is no reason for me to repeat myself.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

Minnesota Vikings – Christian Ponder (2-6)

Ponder and the Vikings beat Newton and the Panthers this past weekend, with Ponder having his second straight impressive start. And while Vikings fans are slowly talking themselves into the Ponder Era, the reality is that the Vikings would have traded St. Paul to draft Newton last year, and as polished as Ponder seems to be both on and off the field, he doesn’t have 1/10th the physical potential of Newton. Minnesota probably should have been an automatic.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes
  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman (4-3)

Freeman was the up-and-coming superstar young quarterback coming into this season, but he has fallen back down to earth a bit through the first half of the year. His interceptions are way up, and he just doesn’t seem as comfortable or confident as he was last year, when he and rookie Mike Williams were as explosive as just about any QB-WR combo in the league.

Still, despite his struggles, I think Tampa Bay is committed to Freeman as the future of its franchise, and I know that Raheem Morris (who coached Freeman in college) believes in his young QB. Freeman is another guy who surprised me by having a smoother transition to the NFL than I thought he would. He has all of the physical tools to bust out of his current slump and still become a top-10 QB. I’d hold tight, and I think Tampa Bay would too.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan (4-3)

Like the Lions with Stafford, I don’t think Atlanta would consider making this move for more than a few seconds, but Ryan is not quite the slam dunk franchise QB that some make him out to be. He has not risen to the occasion in the Falcons’ biggest games, and he does not possess the accuracy that the top flight quarterbacks all have. He does “look” the part, he’s tough, and he’s a strong leader, which is why Atlanta is surely satisfied with Ryan and not looking to move on, nor should they be. As many questions as I have about Ryan, he’s shown enough to make me think that, unlike Romo, he could lead a franchise to a Super Bowl. With the investment Atlanta has already made in him, they’d hold tight, and I agree.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

San Francisco 49ers – Alex Smith (6-1)

Another very, very intriguing one simply because of how this season has started. This one falls right in line with the Bills and Bengals, two teams doing far better than anyone expected thanks to solid play from their QB. Smith has not been asked to win games for the 49ers this year, he’s just been asked not to lose them with a great defense and solid running game by his side. And he hasn’t.

Still, this is Alex Smith. He has not done anything spectacular this year that Cam Newton couldn’t have done, even as a rookie. The issue would be whether Newton would have made mistakes that Smith wouldn’t have made to sabotage the 49ers in a game or two. That I don’t know. But I do know that, again, this is Alex Smith. As solid as he’s been, and as much of an impact as Jim Harbaugh has made on him, the difference in talent and swagger between he and Newton is obvious.

To me, the 6-1 record of the 49ers, and their incredible four game lead this early in this season, would make the team more likely to do such a deal. They’d have some cushion if Newton struggled to adapt to his new surroundings; though one thing we have learned about Newton is that he rarely if ever struggles to adapt. It may be his greatest strength of all.

• Would they? Yes (Well…maybe…probably)
  
• Should they? Yes
  

St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford (1-6)

Following right along with my thoughts on Stafford and Ryan, I don’t think there is much of a chance that St. Louis would pull the plug on the Bradford Era already, especially considering Bradford was the NFL’s Rookie of the Year last year and just needs protection and a few good targets to showcase his pinpoint accuracy. But like Stafford and Ryan, Bradford hasn’t earned Automatic No status. So the Rams might think about it, especially considering the money, but I think they’d stick with Bradford, and I wouldn’t blame them. I still think he’s going to be a star.

• Would they? No
  
• Should they? No
  

Arizona Cardinals – Kevin Kolb (1-6)

I thought long and hard about putting Arizona in Automatic Yes territory, but would they really cut the cord on Kolb so soon after giving him a long-term deal? Of course they should, but we know how egos sometimes get in the way of sound decision making, so I just wonder if they would.

Ultimately, I think so. Larry Fitzgerald has to be watching Cam Newton resuscitate Steve Smith’s career and get horribly jealous. That’s what Kolb was supposed to do for Fitzy, but obviously he hasn’t come close. Not that Arizona should be surprised by this mind you, because Kolb is basically just doing exactly what he did in Philadelphia. What, should he have turned down the money?

I don’t think it would take Arizona very long to say yes here.

• Would they? Yes
  
• Should they? Yes

###

So, how many teams would trade their current QB for Cam Newton right now?

Okay, let’s tally up the “would they” column, as decided by me:

• No: Buffalo, New York Jets, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Philadelphia, Dallas, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Baltimore, Chicago, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Combined with the automatics from up above, that means I think 14 teams would trade their current starting quarterback straight up for Cam Newton. That seems very low to me; and of course it would seem low to me because I personally project a lot of disconnect between what teams should do and what they would do were this a real rather than hypothetical situation.

If I tally it up in terms of my “should they” answers, it would look much different:

• No: Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis
• Yes: Buffalo, New York Jets, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, San Francisco, Arizona

Based on what I would do in each team’s case, I think 20 teams’ QB situations would be improved immediately with Cam Newton. Maybe for a few there would be a short-term step back, but it would be worth it for the projected long-term steps forward.

But what I am really interested in here is your opinion.

Below is a poll that lists all of the teams I think are not obvious. Vote for all of the ones who you think should (not necessarily would) trade their current QB straight up for Cam Newton in our hypothetical fantasy. Then take to the comment section to state your peace or to agree/disagree with any of my assessments.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

I invite your thoughts below.