A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
I am skipping an introduction this week because I’m too mad at fantasy football.
In my league of 14 teams, I finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of points…but because I had the third most points scored on me, I missed the playoffs…by a lot.
I finished second to last.
Lame.
Sometimes, fantasy football goes that way. I will spare you my three heart-breaking losses of the year because, quite frankly, we all have them…and nobody else cares.
There are many different factors that make fantasy football difficult: bye weeks; injuries; random lucky days for your opponent; and worst of all, Chris Johnson.
In my opinion though, the hardest thing is staying in the present.
What do I mean?
I’mmm baaaaaaccccckkkkk!
Did you miss me?
Jon has himself a busy schedule this week, so he texted me this morning and asked if I’d be up for reprising my role as the author of our weekly Start/Sit column here at MSF. I have to admit, as soon as I saw his text I was pretty pumped.
Doing these posts every week, week after week, can admittedly be a bit of a grind, as I learned over the last couple of years; so I was happy to let Jon take it over this year and focus my efforts in other areas. But I’ve missed the weekly challenge of poring over matchups and stats and trends to figure out which players to recommend to you as starts and sits.
So it’s good to be back in the saddle.
Anyway, It’s not like I’ve been totally absent. I still offer commentary on Jon’s posts, answer questions in the comment sections, and monitor the @FantasyMSF Twitter account. So I haven’t really given you a chance to miss me even if you wanted to. Now though, for the first time all year, I have to go on record with start and sit picks.
I’m ready. Let’s roll.
Is 2011 going to be the highest scoring fantasy season of all time? All signs indicate that it could be. Last season, seven players finished the season with more than 270 points (ESPN Standard Scoring). After four weeks this season, a staggering 18 players were on pace to beat that mark…and nine of them were QBs.
Like I said at the beginning of the season, gone are the days of fantasy rule by the RBs. Of those 18 players, only 5 are RBs…simply a staggering thought to anyone living in 2006 or before.
Injuries!
Andre Johnson is gone. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up. Miles Austin is on the mend. Marques Colston is back, but when will he get on track?
With the bye weeks now here, the time has come when fantasy leagues are truly won and lost. If you drafted well, and got a little lucky, you should be near the top of the standings. But nobody can ever completely escape the injury bug. Managing your lineup properly when byes and injuries attack is what separates the good owners from the great ones.
So let’s look at the Week Five games and decide who to start and who to sit this week.
Week Three is here, and hopefully you aren’t 0-2. Don’t worry, it’s still not panic time…but it very well could be time to shake some things up. As always, let’s recap last week’s predictions before looking ahead.
Because we at MSF try our best to get you our Start Em, Sit Em picks before everyone else, we have to take a few chances. One of the downsides to coming out with these picks on Tuesday is that we won’t know all of the injury updates that come out later in the week. We answer your questions and update our predictions accordingly as more information comes out.
However, a few predictions didn’t pan out this week because of injuries (either during the game, or because guys with nagging injuries didn’t end up suiting up on Sunday)…so out of fairness to me, we are going to throw out Michael Vick, Felix Jones, and Dez Bryant.
So besides those guys who caught the injury bug, I went 29 out of 46 overall…a little under 65%. I improved from week one…and that’s exactly what you should try to do from week to week in fantasy.
[Editor's note: this was originally published on September 13th, but I'm bringing back to the front of the site for easy Sunday morning access.]
If there is one word of advice I could give you before week two of your fantasy league this year, it would be this: “Don’t overreact. Panic time doesn’t hit until week 4.”
Every player is due to have a bad week or two; and luckily for Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson owners, they already got one of theirs out of the way.
Does that mean that we should take nothing from week one? Of course not. It’s possibly time to drop Colts’ players not named Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.
But don’t go scrambling for Cam Newton just yet.
Week 1 had some crazy swings that I don’t believe anyone could have expected.
LeGarrette Blount only given five carries?!
Steve Smith for 178 yards?! Listen, I knew that Arizona was trying to figure out their secondary and was very weak after getting rid of Rodgers-Cromartie, but I never would have recommended you play Cam Newton in his first game as a pro!
I have a friend, to save his identity we will call him Kentoso, who had a great draft and his team blew up this week which was expected, but he blew up in an unexpected spot. He had both Stafford and Calvin Johnson. While I thought both of them would do well, I didn’t think they would do that well together. Stafford is dedicated to getting the ball to his best receiver. Much like Stafford, Kentoso is dedicated to a few things; fantasy football, pairing a strong receiver/ QB together, and drinking until he has no shame.
This week’s predictions will look at QB dedications that they will try to exploit this week or lose trying.
Trying to forecast the early weeks of the NFL fantasy season is like…trying to pick a piece of hay out of a stack of needles. There is always going to be a breakout game from an unknown guy and a bad game from someone who is expected to have big games (Big Ben).
If there is one thing to know prior to Week 2 it is that you shouldn’t be excited one way or another about one specific game; but that doesn’t mean rest on your laurels. Fantasy football owners must be bold and we have some bold stock reports just for you.
Week One is finally here. You have done all the research (you know, the usual: waiver wire picks…injury updates…comparing QBs to Michael Jackson songs…), you have gone through your draft, and most importantly, you have started talking smack to everyone in your league.
You only have one job left to do: start the right guys.
Nothing could be worse than having an awesome team…on your bench.
Each and every one of us has a fantasy sob story or two, and it’s almost a guarantee that one of them revolves around sitting the wrong guy.
So who are you going to start this week?
The number of elite tight ends has fallen dramatically, but that doesn’t mean you still can’t get great value in later rounds.
If you really want to make a splash in the tight end market, make sure you move early and grab one of the Big Three. However, if you want to wait and try to maximize your value, there are no less than nine fantastic options that can be gotten for the cheap.
Here are your top twelve Tight Ends for 2011, along with some guys on the fringe that are definitely worth keeping an eye on – especially if you already have good feeling about one of them.
No rivalry has defined my life more than Indiana vs Purdue.
I am a child of Bloomington with a deep-seeded hatred for all things gold and black who ultimately, as the ironic twists of fate would have it, ended up moving to West Lafayette for 8th grade and high school. Because of this, I have lived and breathed Indiana and Purdue sports – the Old Oaken Bucket game, the Knight-Keady rivalry, etc. – for as long as I can remember.
So despite my lack of a specific rooting interest in last night’s Super Bowl, the way it turned out made it a memorable one to me as supporter, in general, of all things Big Ten.
As the 2009 season quickly approaches, The Indianapolis Colts look toward yet another season. This time, however, there is a much different look and feel to what has become one of the most prolific teams in the NFL.
The coaching staff has experienced the most turnover, starting with the departure of head coach Tony Dungy, who was replaced by protégé and former assistant coach Jim Caldwell. Several other coaching changes also have been made in addition to Caldwell taking over.
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Longtime offensive coordinator Tom Moore retired as well, as did offensive line coach Howard Mudd, although both were brought back to the team before the start of training camp as “special advisors.†In addition, defensive coordinator Ron Meeks was replaced by Larry Coyer, who has been assigned the challenge of turning a mundane defense into at least a respectable one. And the most scrutinized position of late is that of new special teams coach Ray Rychlesky, who replaced Russ Purnell.
Other less notable coaching changes also have been made this offseason in an attempt to correct what was viewed by many as a subpar 2008 season despite a sixth straight 12+ win season, as well as a wildcard playoff berth, the first round ejection by 8-8 San Diego that capped the 2008 season.
As to players on the field, the draft brought much needed help at running back and on the defensive line.
The first round brought the Colts RB Donald Brown from Connecticut, who will hopefully boost a subpar running game and provide a sort of “Thunder and Lightning†combination between he and incumbent starter Joseph Addai.
Defensive tackles Fili Moala (Southern Cal) and Terrance Taylor (Michigan) were aquired in the second and fourth rounds, respectively. while receiver Austin Collie (BYU) was added in the fourth as well. Pat McAfee, a punter, was drafted to replace long time booter Hunter Smith who has found a new home in Washington with the Redskins.
Let’s break down each of the three units as the Colts get ready for the regular season, which is now less than two weeks away.
The Offense (The Good)
Of course any team with Peyton Manning will be successful offensively. The good news is that Manning’s knee is at full strength, and we won’t have to wait a hand full of games in the regular season to watch the timing get ironed out, as happened last year.
Joseph Addai has shown signs of returning to his former self in the preseason thus far, and rookie running back Donald Brown continues to impress. The question remains, however, will the offensive line be able to consistently open holes for these two feature backs to run through?
The line is healthier than last year, but there is a glaring issue in the worst possible spot: Peyton’s blind side. OT Tony Ugoh has been replaced as a starter by Charlie Johnson, due to the fact that no one on the coaching staff believes that Ugoh is working his hardest, nor living up to the potential his draft position and salary would suggest. However, Johnson has not been much better thus far, with the Colt’s O-line giving up a horrific three sacks in just the first possession alone of the first preseason game against the Vikings.
The most intriguing position on the Colts offense comes at wide receiver. With the departure of long time #1 receiver Marvin Harrison, the Colts are looking to fill a significant void of experience and production. Reggie Wayne will become the #1 WR (and basically was last year) while 3rd-year man Anthony Gonzalez will take over the #2 spot.
But who will be the #3 WR in the slot?
Dallas Clark, the Colts starting tight end, will no doubt be put into the slot with various personnel groupings. Through two weeks of the preseason, we have seen Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie making great plays and looking to be solid contenders for the slot when the Colts go 3-wide.Â
Tom Santi and Jacob Tamme look to have locked up the backup roles to starting TE Dallas Clark.
The Defense (The Bad)
Amidst all of the many questions that surround one of the NFL’s worst third down defenses is, what about Bob? It’s been a while since Bob Sanders has played an entire season, but when he is in the lineup we all know that his presence is invaluable as a stabilizing and inspirational force  in the Colts’ D.
The linebackers looks solid, anchored by Gary Brackett, Phillip Wheeler, and Clint Session, but still seems somewhat weak in certain coverage and run schemes and situation.
The defensive line seems to have improved, adding a couple of 300+ pounders, but the injury to Raheem Brock could make things a little more challenging. The pass rush, anchored by DE’s Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, seems as strong as ever; but, can the Colts stop the run?
Only time will tell if Larry Coyer can make a major difference replacing Ron Meeks as the leader of what was ranked as one of the worst run defenses in the league last year, as well as one of the worst defenses at getting off of the field on third down.
A lot of questions remain for the Colts on defense, and only time will tell how good the D can be in 2009.
Special Teams (The Ugly)
Where do I start with the special teams?
The Colts can boast that they have one of the most reliable placekickers in the league in Adam Vinatieri. However, the lack of touchbacks, the poor kick coverage, and poor kick returns that are often riddled with turnovers and bad decisions, have plagued the Colts for years and made both the offense and defense have to work much harder to attain victory.
They say that defense wins championships, but I personally believe that special teams plays just as important a role, if not slightly more. There must be change. There must be improvement. Need I say more? Ray Rychlesky, the pressure is on from Day 1.
2009 Outlook
This season’s schedule seems a little soft at first glance, but there could be teams that were weak last season that may be more of a challenge this year. The Colts will host the Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Texans, Patriots, Titans, Broncos, and Jets, and will find themselves traveling to the Dolphins, Cardinals, Titans, Rams, Ravens, Texans, Jaguars, and Bills.
Will the Colts make it to 12 wins for a seventh consecutive season? Las Vegas thinks not. The over-under for the Colts is currently 10. My prediction is somewhere between 11 and 12 wins, but, of course, that’s why they play the games!
There has been a lot of change in Indianapolis this offseason, and the Colts have more competition in the AFC then ever before. Only time will tell if Peyton Manning will win his second Super Bowl, or perhaps a record 4th MVP. He’s Peyton, so anything is possible.
Either way, here’s hoping on another fun ride and successful season for the Colts — one of the NFL’s best and most consistent team over the course of this decade.
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* – Bob Sanders / Marlin Jackson photo credit: NFL Gridiron Gab
