A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
Ahh yes, closers. My favorite.
Before we dive in, I need to discuss a statistic I have referred to a lot in my SP rankings, and will be using again here in the closer rankings – strand percentage, or LOB%. Strand percentage is simple enough, it’s the percentage of runners that the pitcher strands on base. The theory behind it that makes it fantasy relevant is what I want to touch on.
Struggling in the saves category every week? Many closer sleepers await your claiming in the FA, and I’m here to get you a few prospects to help turn around that defeat in pitching categories.
Baseball is nearly 1/3 through the season. Some relief pitchers are grabbing the 9th inning by the ball and taking care of business, some are evening out to their seasonal averages, and others are on the road to a let-down of a season for many fantasy owners. I’ll begin with the disappointments, move to the blessings this year, and suggest which RPs are worth a free agency pick-up.
Like every year, a good portion of the highly-acclaimed closers are flopping out. A few cases of shanking have been witnessed to the Phillies’ Brad Lidge (ERA: 9.15, WHIP 2.08), who sealed the deal on all 48 opportunities last season while giving up only 15 runs. Yet he was part of the World Series champs, and it’s just a historical fact that any team to win a title has poorer pitching the opening segment of the next season (White Sox after ’05 season especially). Lidge has already given up 5 more runs than he did all of last season. His numbers blow so far, yet his “mechanics†are “tweaked and without quandaryâ€, according to Charlie Manuel. Lidge’s velocity remains in the 90’s, and claims he is “healthy in mind and bodyâ€.
Another few blown saves and the “health†of his position may be in jeopardy, and open the door for Ryan Madson. Don’t be surprised to see him in the 9th if Lidge keeps up his skit of blown games.
Another downer this year has been Jose Valverde. 8 innings so far, I suppose this is due to the calf injury. He will be back in a matter of weeks, so don’t plan for a return until late June, especially with LaTroy Hopkins Hawkins (thank you commenter for pointing out the spelling error) taking care of business the past couple of weeks. However, Valverde’s past 2 seasons have averaged 45 saves and a much improved command on his delivery from his ’06 season. Ride out the next few weeks with patience, and in the meantime consider Hopkins, who is only owned in 43 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Who else stinks this year? Matt Capps looks unpleasant in the numbers department (ERA: 6.60, WHIP: 1.93) so far this year. His nagging elbow injury may be slowing him down, though his trademark slider is looking solid at 95 mph. Look for his ERA to end up below 3.50 and around 35 saves, plus about a strike per inning. Hold onto this one, especially with backup scrubs in the Pittsburgh bullpen.
[Editor's Note: Since Josh submitted this post, Matt Capps has actually aggravated the elbow injury. The early reports are that it's not too serious, but enough to make him miss a week or two. John Grabow was the name being bandied about as the guy to get the saves while Capps is out.]
So far this year a few notable, middle-to-late round draft picks have lost their rights to the 9th. Toronto’s B.J. Ryan and Seattle’s Brandon Morrow are getting a taste of the set-up position. While Morrow is young and still has time to fix things, Ryan isn’t a likely candidate to rebirth any stellar numbers, at least this year with a shoulder burden. Scott Downs is taken in only 69 percent of leagues, pitches for at least a K/IP, and found his groove since the ’07-’08 seasons at the set-up position. It’s uncertain at what point Morrow will regain his closing job, but until then sponge up some saves from David Aardsma. Posting solid numbers so far, 24 Ks in 21 IP, and owned in 40 fricken percent of leagues? There’s a good chance you can track him down right now. Until these two “temporary†closers slip up a few games, expect to see them on the mound to close out games.
Now for the pleasant surprises.
Ex-Seattle SP Ryan Franklin has been solid for fantasy rosters this season. With 11 saves so far and no possible back-up threat (save Jason Motte), he seems to be in the saddle for the year at the closer. Expect infrequent bumps in his ERA throughout the season as he has streaks of less than stellar appearances on occasion, but with Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, and Adam Wainwright pitching with quality, 
Franklin will rake up about 37-40 saves this season.
Possibly the most impressive RP at this point, Trevor Hoffman has 11 saves thus far on the season, and he began in May. I would post his current ERA if he had one. You could say he’s the Joe Mauer of RP at this point. By that, I also mean the same for both players; sell high. Sell right now. Do it. Go offer trades, try and get some value. Hoffman is solid, but no one keeps a goose egg in ERA, even though a career ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of basically 1.00 might seem to suggest otherwise. Yet this nearly 42-year old grizzled veteran has seen his best days, and things start to fall apart when you commence middle age. If I haven’t stressed enough, trade him ASAP for someone you cherish.
Who else looks awesome right now? Rangers’ Frank Francisco also has yet to allow a run this season. His 10 saves are remarkable, especially with over 2 weeks on the DL with his throwing-arm (R) biceps tendinitis. Solid numbers last year as the set-up man show promise, yet I would not invest in this as a long-term investment of saves all season. In addition to an injury possibly hazing on his momentum, the early summer is thawing into the scorching fires of Texas climate, and balls are sure to be flying out of the The Ballpark incredibly soon. As the temperature climbs, be wary of a similar behavior in Frankie’s ERA as well.
Another stud is Jonathon Broxton, who set-up in the shadow of Takashi Saito for some years. My first inclination would be to advise trading him, being the No. 4 ranked player and all, but I’d rank him among elites Jonathon Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, and Francisco Rodriguez. History tells us you don’t trade consistency in the closer seat, and Broxton is headed in that direction.
Heath Bell will also place concrete numbers the rest of the season. A pitcher’s ballpark and several years of quality 8th inning appearances, ride him out the rest of the season.
With Joakim Soria about 10 days away, look for interim saves for the Royals from Juan Cruz, owned in 28 percent of leagues.
Other RP on the watch list: (owned %)
Have an excess of relievers and saves? Sell high on these guys now for value at other positions:
Committee on saves:
So what’s going on in Tampa Bay? If you guessed Troy Percival being on the DL, you’d be right more often than not. However, his trip has not only served to the DL, but also to his hometown in California, where he contemplates retirement. That means 9th inning door has opened, but to which RP?
There are 5 potential candidates:
Much of the closer consideration is based upon the pitiful 9th inning detonation by Cleveland in their 11-10 victory over the Rays. Wheeler has struggled in the closer role in the past and blows almost half of his save opportunities, therefore he makes more sense as a set-up man, to which he performs better anyway. Balfour is a big tool. Surrendering 3 runs in 1/3 innings essentially sealed his fate and will keep him from closing games anytime soon. As of now, the most experienced closer would be Isringhausen, but he blew his sole opportunity for the save after walking 3 batters and blowing the save to give Victor Martinez the winning drive. The competition reigns chiefly between Howell and Nelson.
Most non-closerlike closer in the game:
Award goes to Kerry Wood of the Cleveland Indians, who looks enthralled about closing for the worthless
Indians.
This has been an inside scope on the Bullpens of Major League Baseball, stay tuned for more fantasy advice and updates in the next few weeks.
First of all, I hope everyone is enjoying their shortened week. My guess is that this post will find many of our fair readers traveling across the country to reconnect with friends and family, binge eat, and, ideally, pound a case of beers on the couch while watching some NFL action on Thursday.
I, myself, flipped the bird to the rest of my classes this week and took off for Dayton, OH, where I’ll be spending the holiday with my girlfriend’s parents (before a much-anticipated homecoming to St. Louis later in the week). But, just because the rest of the population is winding-down for Thanksgiving doesn’t mean that baseball GMs are taking a holiday. Certainly not John Mozelik, who continues to work the wire while ironing out the “fine print’ on a deal to bring Trever Miller to St. Louis.
This morning, Mo made an offer to another LOOGY who’s name has recently been coming up in the local press: Arthur Rhodes. Now, there’s no need for me to beat around the bush with this deal, so I’ll just tell you right upfront: I don’t like it one bit!
Rhodes is 39 years old, having made his debut for the Baltimore Orioles in 1991– back when little Ricky Reuben was spending most of his time staging epic G.I. Joe battles and long before statistics and cyborgs ruined baseball. In 2007, Rhodes signed a minor league deal with the Seattle Mariners, with an invitation to Spring Training, but ended up missing the entire season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery in late April. As a result, Rhodes became a free agent again in 2008, and resigned with the Mariners. He did not make the roster out of Spring Training, but was added to the active roster on April 14. On July 31, he was traded to the Florida Marlins for 23 year old, right-handed starter Gaby Hernandez.
Now, my problem with this deal is not the ability of Rhodes or his contract demands, but rather the age and injury risk he comes with. (One quick caveat: Rhodes topped out, salary-wise, at $3.7 million in 2006, but would have only made $1 million in ’07. If he’ll take a 1-year deal, at something like $1.5 million, I think there may be some merit to signing him.)
Last season, Rhodes pitched 35.3 innings between Seattle and Florida. He struck out 30 batters against 16 walks, and held lefties to a paltry .157/.253/.200 line against. His career line against lefties is also above-average as well at .221/.289/.325, so he’s a capable specialist.
Looking over his career, however, he’s mostly he’s been mediocre or worse (1999 in Baltimore comes immediately to mind as a low point). Now, when looking at a pitcher’s career numbers one statistic that I always like to use as a quick barometer of ability is ERA+ (or OPS+ for hitters). ERA+ is an adjusted earned run average that is normalized and accounts for home park effects. A stat like ERA+/OPS+, because it is normalized to the league average, allows for an “apples-to-apples” comparison of players from different eras of the game. (After all, pitchers were used quite a bit differently when Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax were throwing 20 complete games in the ’60s versus now, when Roy Halladay lead the league in ’08…with 9.)
Using those three above examples, you’ll see that when Gibby won his first Cy Young and MVP in 1968, his ERA+ was 258. When Koufax won his first Cy Young and MVP in 1963, his ERA+ was 159. And finally, when Roy Halladay won his Cy in 2003, his ERA+ was 145. In analyzing this data, what we can say is that each of these players were between 45-158% more productive than the average major league starter in their respective season (average ERA+ always = 100). Further, among these 3 Cy Young seasons, Gibson had the most productive, while Halladay’s was *less* productive (in context). ERA+ allows for this direct comparison in a way that a stat like ERA simply cannot — for example, we know Gibson was fantastic in ’68, but comparing his ERA to Koufax’s in ’63 or Halladay’s in ’03 is an exercise in futility that doesn’t even begin to tell the whole story of how these men pitched. The game of baseball, despite the efforts of many, continues to evolve. (Note: This same analysis applies to hitters as well, when looking at OPS+.)
Okay, now armed with our knowledge of ERA+, let’s return to our featured player. Arthur Rhodes has a career ERA+ of 105 over 17 MLB seasons. So, he’s just slightly better than the average middle reliever. His high mark for ERA+ is 242 in 2001 (when he struck out 83 hitters over 68 innings for that 116-win Mariners club), and his low is 86, which came in 1999 (when he walked 43 men and gave up 43 hits in just 53 innings of work). Truly, I believe that the takeaway from all of this is that, at 39 years old, and for 40 innings a season, unless he’ll come real cheap and for a short duration, it doesn’t make much sense to sign Rhodes to the deal he’ll likely require.
He’s about a year removed from serious arm surgery (hmm…have we heard this before in the Cardinals organization?), and he’s about to be over-the-hill. Now, I’m not ageist, but when a club invests (extremely) finite resources into a player, you’d like it to be someone who’s track record doesn’t include a major injury and spotty performance over the last 3-4 seasons.
Hopefully the right decisions will be made, though…as, the last time I checked, Isiah Thomas was NOT in the Cardinals’ front office.
…And quickly, a few final thoughts on Hot Stove murmurs overheard recently:
1. Derrick Goold threw out the name of Brandon Lyon as a possibility for the currently vacant closer spot in the Birds bullpen. Lyon will turn 29 in August of next season, and had down year in 2008, despite collecting 26 saves for Arizona: 59.3 innings pitched, 75 Hits, 44/13 Strikeout/Walk ratio, 4.70 ERA, 98 ERA+. In 2007 he was much better in a non-closing role, posting a 2.68 ERA and 176 ERA+. He made $3.125 million in 2008, and, while this is an educated guess, I think he probably is looking for around a 3 year deal.
2. The Cardinals do have internal options for the ‘pen, of course, in Chris Perez and Jason Motte. Both made their debuts for the big club last season, and pitched well (Motte, especially – small sample size, granted).
Perez will only be 22 at the start of ’09 (he turns 23 in July), and struck out 42 hitters in only 34 innings at the major league level (after flying through the Cardinals system in 2007 — he did throw 25.1 innings at Memphis earlier in the year.) Perez is, in all likelihood, the closer of the future, as he has an overpowering fastball that hitters just can’t catch up with. The biggest (legitimate) concern with him, however, is wildness. He walked 22 batters in the big leagues last season (34 IP), and walked 41 (!) over just 54.2 innings between AA-Palm Beach and AAA-Memphis in 2007. Having watched him pitch himself into some serious jams in the 9th, one can only hope that LaRussa will give him enough time to work things out — and that he does!
Jason Motte is one intimidating dude. He’s got a wild red goatee, was a former catcher, and reminds me of Brian Wilson (the SF Giant, not the Beach Boy) on the mound. Motte, like Perez, has a big league fastball that regularly sits in the mid-90s. He’s a bit older than Chris – he’ll turn 27 in June – but can be just as effective. At AAA this season he struck out 110 batters over 66.2 innings (26 walks). After being called up to the bigs, he pitched in 11 innings for the Cardinals, striking out 16 hitters against only 3 walks (and 5 hits), and looking just as dominant as that sounds.
Even with Perez’s control problems, I just don’t see how it could make any sense for this team to consider Brandon Lyon. He’s older than both of the club’s internal options, isn’t cost-controlled, and has nowhere near the ability to miss bats like either Motte or Perez can. I’ll take a few bumps along the way to pay two flamethrowers the league minimum to get three outs, thank you.
(Final note, even though you stopped reading 3 paragraphs ago: Should the club go with Perez and/or Motte for the closer/set-up role, they’ll discuss bringing Jason Isringhausen back. He’ll be 36 next September and plans to meet with team doctors next week to get clearance to begin upper-body work with his surgically repaired shoulder. Let’s hope there’s still plenty of space in the training room next year.)
Be safe and enjoy the time off everyone. I’ll be back soon with more Hot Stove banter. If you have an links or tips for the MLB offseason you’d like covered in this space, send them my way. Your thoughts in the comments are always read and appreciated.
