I was strongly in favor of the deal at the time, even going so far as to start an online petition in hopes of helping Peavy overcome his reluctance to come to the South Side by showing him an outpouring of a support from White Sox fans. (10 supporters! Whoo-hoo! I guess not everything goes viral online…)

Holding full no-trade rights, however, Peavy was in possession of all the cards and in the end he decided to nix the deal to stay in San Diego. I, along with many other White Sox fans, was disappointed. Hanging onto Aaron Poreda was certainly a silver lining, but man was the thought of a Peavy-Buehrle lefty-righty combo atop the rotation enticing.

Who would have thought that, in retrospect, Peavy’s refusal to the accept the trade would look more and more like a positive for the White Sox with each passing week.

First, there is Peavy himself. He has made only four starts since the announcement of the deal-in-principle and is currently on the DL with a strained tendon in his right ankle. And the four starts he made were not exactly stellar (perhaps because of the injury though, to be fair). Only two were quality starts and his ERA rose from 3.48 to 3.97.

Plus, a deeper look at Peavy’s career numbers perhaps shows one of the main reasons why he is so reluctant to leave San Diego, and why clowns like myself were perhaps a little too anxious to get him into the summer bandbox that is U.S. Cellular Field. Look at Peavy’s home/road splits this season:

• Home: 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .217 BAA, 62:17 K/BB
• Road: 2-2, 4.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .246 BAA, 30:11 K/BB

And for his career:

• Home: 45-31, 2.83 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .219 BAA, 779:212 K/BB
• Road: 47-37, 3.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .246 BAA, 569:223 K/BB

So this year’s numbers are to be expected based on his track record. And it’s not like I and others excited about the possibility of a Peavy trade didn’t realize this, but I know that I didn’t really consider it with the weight that I probably should have.

PetcoPark, as has been well documented, is a severe pitcher’s park. So I would assume that most San Diego pitchers have similar splits. Thus, I would expect stats like BAA and HRs against to be up on the road. What concerns me looking deeper at the stats is the vastly different K rate. For his career, Peavy’s K/BB ratio is 3.67:1 at home but drops to 2.55:1 on the road. I realize different ballparks dictate pitching guys differently and can have other subtle effects, but Peavy’s numbers specifically seem like a pretty jarring difference for a stat that takes into account what happens when the ball is not in play and is thus not affected by park dimensions or climate factors that affect ball flight.

Maybe it’s a confidence thing, maybe it’s a certain oneness with his home mound, maybe it’s just a comfort level thing of strapping on his stirrups in the home locker room. But for whatever reason, Jake Peavy is dominant at home and much more ordinary on the road. You can’t really consider his home stats when considering what kind of impact Peavy might have made in Chicago. So maybe this deal wasn’t the slam dunk that I thought it was at the time.

To be fair to myself, part of the reason for my excitement was desperation. On May 21st, the White Sox were 17-22 and our non-Buehrle pitchers had not been good or capable of any semblance of consistency. In the six weeks since then, we’ve gone 27-18 and moved to two games within first place Detroit. For a team starved for solid pitching at the time, I thought Peavy would be a great shot in the arm. It turns out that we got a great shot in the arm, it was just an internal one. Look at the numbers:

• John Danks on May 21st: 4.60 ERA | John Danks now: 3.76 ERA
• Gavin Floyd on May 21st: 7.71 ERA | Gavin Floyd now: 4.33 ERA
• Jose Conreras on May 21st: 8.19 ERA | Jose Contreras now: 4.54 ERA

Even with their terrible early season numbers still part of the whole, all three of our 2-3-4 starters have better cumulative ERAs than what Peavy has put up in starts outside of San Diego this season. And Clayton Richard’s ERA on the season is 4.75, which is only slightly worse than what Peavy has done on the road this year.

I’m not saying that Danks, Floyd, Contreras, and Richard are individually better than Jake Peavy. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball for the last half decade. But the resurgence of our pitching staff over the last six weeks has certainly made me far, far less regrettable about the trade not going through. And looking at Peavy’s inability to dominate away from home certainly makes me question just how disappointed we might have been had he come to the South Side in a deal for two of our top pitching prospects and threw a 3.9+ ERA up there over the balance of the season.

In the end, I think the Peavy to Chicago deal-that-almost-was ended up working out in the best interests of each party involved (except for the Padres of course, who desperately wanted to get rid of his contract and are now stuck because of his injury). Jake Peavy gets to stay in San Diego and pitch where he is most comfortable once he gets healthy, and the White Sox have been able to enjoy the fruits of the Danks/Floyd combo regaining their 2008 rhythm and Jose “The Phoenix” Contreras rediscovering his supreme badassness. Plus, we still have Aaron Poreda, who has now become a valuable member of one of the league’s best bullpens.

Kudos to Ken Williams for being proactive and putting the White Sox in a position to make a big splash in filling what, at the time, was a pretty glaring area of need. In retrospect though, Jake Peavy’s refusal to the accept the trade was probably a blessing in disguise for the Good Guys.

* – John Danks/Gavin Floyd photo credit: AP via USA Today

———-

DALLAS, Texas — May 26, 2009 — The National Unified Trust of the Society of Ass Clowns is pleased award Midwest Sports Fans author an “managing editor” JRod its esteemed Fantasy Baseball Douche Award for the week of May 25th, 2009. JRod has been named this week’s Fantasy Baseball Douche for his untimely and idiotic release of Alexei Ramirez early last week from his first place fantasy baseball team.

Despite extolling the virtues of the Cuban Missile earlier in the year — and being exactly right that Alexei Ramirez was simply off to a slow start and would turn it around — JRod decided to not even listen to his own advice, resulting in his releasing of Ramirez on May 21st. Since being released from JRod’s fantasy team, Alexei Ramirez has found a home hitting in the #2 hole and has gone 8-20 with 2 HRs, 6 RBI, 6 R, and 2 SB. For the season, Ramirez has overcome his putrid start to now have respectable totals for a second baseman of .243, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 14 R, and 8 SB, and obviously he is trending sharply upward.

N.U.T.S.A.C. would like to extend its most heartfelt congratulations to JRod for not only dropping a player with significant more upside than his current second baseman (Alberto Callapso of the Royals) but also for giving up on one of his favorite players in May. Nothing defines “douche” quite like that.

In related news, Lifetime Douchechievement Award winner recipient Jay Mariotti extends his most heartfelt congratulations to JRod.

“Well, I can’t say that I am pleased or proud to be winning this award,” JRod said in a statement. “However, I would like to state for the record that I held onto Alexei Ramirez in two other leagues and have reaped the fruits of Alexei’s success this week. Plus, I would be remiss if I did not point out that one of my motivating factors in dropping Alexei was the knowledge that each year I drop a player and he goes on to post incredible numbers the rest of the season. I was hopeful that by releasing Alexei it would help to turn his season around – which it did, almost immediately.”

After learning of JRod’s statement, N.U.T.S.A.C. has decided to also award him with next week’s Douche Award for using the phrase “reaped the fruits” and for making up a stupid excuse to rationalize his indefensible release of a ridiculously talented player on his own favorite team with a history of slow starts. To be fair, the fantasy team in question does currently sit in first place (thanks to lucky later round picks of Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Raul Ibanez) but how soon will that last with such a moronic loose cannon at the helm?

Congratulations JRod. You are this week’s N.U.T.S.A.C. Fantasy Baseball Douche.

———-

Okay, moving along now.

After a horrific 9-day stretch during which the White Sox went 1-7 and began to fall deep into the depths of the AL Central standings, the team rebounded for an absolutely necessary 5-2 week that got the Sox within 4 games of .500. Of course, this is the White Sox, so it was a 5-2 record unlike many you will see. The 5 wins included a 17-3 thrashing of the Angels last night, a series win against division rival Minnesota, and two straight shutouts against Pittsburgh in Interleague Play.

Amazingly, the two straight shutouts of the Pirates came immediately after the White Sox gave up 20 runs in a loss to the Twins. And the Sox other loss was a heartbreaking 4-3 defeat in the final game of the Pittsburgh series when Bobby Jenks blew the save. The inability of the White Sox to close out a sweep, or win the final game of a series, continues a disturbing trend. Thus far in 2009 the White Sox are 4-11 in the last game of a series. I guess that means no coffee for the White Sox.

Still, 5-2 is 5-2 and right now the White Sox and their fans will take any signs of life and positivity they can get. Last night’s 17-run explosion was certainly a sign of life, and hopefully it will continue. This season is far from over, with the White Sox 5.5 games out of the first place and only 1.5 games back of 2nd place Kansas City. Obviously with plenty of games left against Detroit and the rest of the AL Central remaining, nothing has been decided. And the White Sox veteran core is proving more and more every year that they don’t get hot until the weather warms up, so perhaps this kind of start is what we should have expected.

Of course, not everything was birthday cakes and butterflies last night. Struggling but ultra-important left fielder Carlos Quentin got hurt…again…after doubling in a run in the first inning. He was limping badly after feeling a pop in his sore foot and had to be helped off the field. The reports on Chisox.com actually sound pretty positive though, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed:

That pop cost Quentin the rest of the game and probably the remainder of this three-game set at Angel Stadium. But surprisingly, the injury might not be as bad as it sounds.

“Supposedly, from what I understand from [White Sox athletic trainer Herm Schneider], it is a good thing,” said White Sox bench coach Joey Cora, serving as manager in Ozzie Guillen’s absence. “But we’ll find out [tomorrow].”

By tomorrow, of course, they mean today. I’ll be scouring for news and will update if anything more is known about TCQ’s injury.

In other White Sox news…

Clayton Richard moving back to the bullpen once Jose Contreras is ready to rejoin the club may not be a foregone conclusion; nor should it be. Clayton has pitched very well over the past couple of weeks since being moved into the rotation, and he is a purported building block for the future.

I love Jose Contreras, but his ERAs from 2007-2009 (through 6 starts) are 5.57, 4.54, 8.19. He just has not been the same since being one of the most dominant pitchers in the league through the first half of 2006. I think that Ozzie needs to decide whether he will move forward with Contreras or Colon, but leave Clayton Richard alone. (And when I say “leave Clayton Richard alone”, I mean in regards to his rotation spot…not Ozzie’s apparent propensity for fondling the strapping youngster’s pecs. We should really do a caption contest for the pic to the right…) And if Richard begins to struggle, we can always plug the odd man out between Colon and Contreras back in. Regardless of how Ozzie juggles it, I want to see Richard show what he can do with consistent starts.

Congratulations to Jim Thome for passing Mike Schmidt and taking ahold of the 13th spot on the all-time home run list. I was not a fan of Jim Thome before he got to the White Sox and it took me awhile to warm up to him once he got here, but his homer in the 1-0 victory over Minnesota in last year’s one-game playoff earned him my appreciation. Way to go Jim.

Colon faces Joe Saunders tonight at 9:05 CDT on WCIU. Hopefully we can make it 6 out of 8.

The Chicago White Sox in 2009 are certainly no exception.

Heading into Spring Training, one of the up-and-coming candidates being promoted as a possibility to fill the #5 slot for the White Sox behind their healthy and durable triumverate of Mark Buehrle-Gavin Floyd-John Danks was Aaron Poreda.

Now that Poreda has made his first Spring Training appearance, let’s find out who this kid is and assess his chances to break Spring Training in the rotation with the White Sox.

Aaron Poreda Bio and Scouting Report

Aaron Poreda will be 22 years old on Opening Day 2009 and is a 6’6, 240 pound lefty from Walnut Creek, California. He was selected by the White Sox in the 1st round (25th pick) of the 2007 draft and signed by White Sox scout Adam Virchis. Since being drafted, Poreda has certainly made a name for himself and developed a reputation as a major piece of the White Sox future.

After a successful college career at the University San Francisco, during which Poreda posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of his three seasons, Poreda pitched in 46.1 innings of rookie ball at the age of 20. In those 46.1 innings, Poreda went 4-0, had a 1.17 ERA, and a K/9 ratio of 9.3, while walking only 10 batters. His WHIP was a sterling 0.84.

Certainly a very auspicious beginning.

In 2008, Poreda’s first and only full season in the minor leagues, he shuffled between high-A ball and AA Birmingham. At Winston-Salem, Poreda pitched 73.1 innings and amassed a 3.31 ERA and a 5-5 record. His K rate dropped to only 5.6 per 9 innings and his WHIP rose to a still solid 1.16. In AA Birmingham, Poreda pitched 87.2 innings, had an ERA of 2.98, a K/9 rate of 7.4, and a WHIP of 1.17.

So for his brief minor league career thus far, Aaron Poreda is 12-9 with a 2.69 ERA in 207.1 innings, with a K/9 rate of 7.2 and a WHIP of 1.10. All very good numbers, and certainly predictors of future success.

Additionally, Poreda was rated the #1 prospect in the White Sox entire system in 2008 by Baseball America. In the 2009 Baseball America Top Prospects list, Poreda is third for the White Sox, behind 2008 #1 draft pick SS Gordon Beckham and Cuban signee 3B Dayan Viciedo, but is still listed as the #63 prospect overall.

According to MinorLeagueBaseball.com, Aaron Poreda has a plus-plus fastball that sits comfortably at 95-96 mph and sinks and runs, while still catching the plate for strikes. They list his slider and changeup as fair, but in need of plenty of work. (It looks like this report is from 2007, so perhaps his other pitches have improved since then to better complement his obviously wicked fastball).

In his first outing this spring, Poreda started off slowly by giving up a homerun and a single to the first two batters (Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson), but then recovered to retire the next six batters. Most importantly, he threw first pitch strikes to 7 out of the 8 batters he faced.

From a Mark Gonzalez report at the Tribune’s website about the first 2009 appearance by Aaron Poreda:

“I was able to force contact, and sometimes when you force contact you’ve got to tip your hat because [Furcal] hit the ball pretty far,” Poreda said. “After that I recuperated and kept throwing strikes.

“I could have thrown a few better sliders, a changeup, but all in all I was happy with the outing. I didn’t give in, stayed strong and ended on a positive note.”

Poreda’s fastball was clocked in the 91-93 m.p.h. range. He struck out two and didn’t walk a batter, coming back from a 3-0 count to retire one hitter.

So apparently the slider and changeup are still a work in progress. The other interesting note in the 2007 scouting report mentioned above is that Poreda is “new to being good. Players who come out of nowhere like he has (with the jump in velocity, especially) have to get used to being dominant. Once he grows accustomed to that, his poise should improve by leaps and bounds.”

It will be interesting to watch how Poreda fares the rest of this spring. Based on his history and scouting report, it sounds like another year in the minor leagues could help Poreda develop his secondary pitches and confidence. I am sure that if the White Sox have their druthers, this is exactly what will happen.

But there is a reason that people have been talking about Poreda as a potential answer to the questions the White Sox have at the back end of their rotation. And the reason is that despite the improvements Poreda still needs to make, he is already a very good pitcher; and the White Sox need someone to fill Javier Vazquez’s slot in the rotation and someone else to fill in until Jose Contreras is ready to go.

So, will Aaron Poreda break camp in the White Sox rotation?

It does not appear likely — and the reasons why have nothing to do with Poreda not being capable, and much more to do with some great early news the White Sox have received about their other rotation options.

Chicago White Sox 2009 Pitching Rotation

First off there is Jose Contreras, who was originally expected back sometime around the All-Star break after surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles ended his 2008 season prematurely. Now there is talk that Contreras could be ready for Opening Day. He made a splash by reporting to camp lighter and in great shape, and Ozzie Guillen has already said that as soon as Contreras is healthy and ready go, he is taking the ball every fifth day.

Another major question mark heading into camp was veteran pitching behemoth Bartolo Colon, the 5’11, 245-pound former Cy Young winner (and former White Sox pitcher, in 2003) signed by the White Sox this offseason. Ozzie Guillen has already said that he feels confident defending the 2008 AL Central crown with Contreras and Colon manning the back end of the rotation. The question, of course, will be health and availability.

According to Chisox.com, both Colon and Contreras are scheduled to throw three days next week, with two additional side sessions scheduled for the week after. They are then both tentatively scheduled to pitch an inning in a game if all goes well. White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper knows what Colon can bring to the rotation:

“I’ll tell you what we are talking about,” Cooper said. “This is the second half of his career, and Bartolo is now trying to prove he can go from a pure power guy to a guy who still can pitch with real solid stuff.

“Remember, there’s nothing he can’t do with a baseball. He can cut it, slice it and dice it. He’s like Popeil’s pocket pitcher. He can do it all. He might be able to even core an apple.

“If he gets healthy, then you got a chance to win ballgames on that fourth or fifth day. He’s a proven guy, and we all know he knows how to pitch. He certainly has the heart and the [guts].”

Basically, if Contreras and Colon are ready to go on Opening Day, they will be in the rotation. If one of them is not ready, it appears that Clayton Richard could be one of the first in line for the open slot. Richard gained valuable experience filling in for Contreras last season, starting 8 games. He certainly did not set the world on fire, going 2-5 with a 6.04 ERA, but he is 25 and more experienced than the other options. Richard will assume a prominent spot in the White Sox bullpen as a long reliever whenever both Contreras and Colon are ready, so the Sox may be willing to give him the first crack at any open rotation slots.

And another name to keep an eye on is Jeff Marquez, acquired in the offseason from the Yankees in the Nick Swisher trade. Marquez is 24, and has over 100 innings more experience than Poreda in the minors. He has a sinker than has drawn comparisons to former White Sox pitcher Jon Garland, and his arsenal also includes a changeup, curve, and slider. So while he may not have the potential of Poreda, he could be more “Major League ready” right now.

In his first spring outing, Marquez pitched two hitless innings against the Cubs and impressed Ozzie Guillen, according to a report by Scott Merkin:

“He threw the ball pretty good, but I don’t think he was sharp enough for the first time,” said White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen of Marquez. “But Marquez really impressed me. I was happy with what I saw.”

So in reality, it is quite possible that Aaron Poreda is currently 8th in line for starts with the White Sox in 2009. He is undoubtedly projected to be in the White Sox rotation in 2010, but for the purposes of this post we are just looking at 2009. My best guess is that Aaron Poreda begins the year in AAA, and the best case scenario for the White Sox is that he stays there all year because Contreras and Colon are healthy and effective.

But I have this funny feeling that Aaron Poreda is going to play an important role for the 2009 White Sox, perhaps not early on but maybe later in the year. Just like last season when Contreras went down, you can never predict injuries. And the truth is, the White Sox rotation has been one of the most durable rotations in baseball since 2005. Look at the numbers of total starts made by the top 5 White Sox pitchers each of the last four years:

• 2005: 154 out of 162
• 2006: 161 out of 162
• 2007: 152 out of 162
• 2008: 153 out of 162

Over four years, the pitchers in the White Sox rotation have missed only 28 starts. That is a phenomenal level of durability, and I remember hearing a stat somewhere that it was the best in baseball over that time period.

But will it continue in 2009? We know how durable Mark Buehrle has been, and there is no reason not to pencil him in for 30+ starts this season. John Danks started at least 21 games in each of his last three seasons in the minors and has been durable as a major leaguer. Gavin Floyd has also shown tremendous durability during his professional career. And last season was the only full season of Jose Contreras’ major league career that has has started less than 30 games.

So as usual, assuming Contreras is healthy and ready for the long haul, the White Sox top 4 of the rotation appears locked in stone for the entire season.

Bartolo Colon, however, is another story. He started 7 games last year, 18 in 2007, and 10 in 2006. Before that, he started at least 30 games for 8 straight seasons. But how many innings can Colon pitch this season, when the most he has pitched in any season since 2005 is 99 1/3? All White Sox fans are hoping that Bartolo Colon can regain his Cy Young form of 2005, but 150-160 innings out of Colon may be about the maximum we can realistically expect.

If that is the case, someone will have to pick up some of the slack. And with a few more months of seasoning, it very well could be Aaron Poreda that steps up to do it.

While Clayton Richard and Jeff Marquez have more experience, a more developed overall repertoire of pitches, and perhaps even more confidence and moxie on the mound, Poreda clearly has the best fastball and the most overall talent. If Poreda can add some consistency to his secondary pitches during Spring Training, and develop confidence with a few good months in AAA, he could provide a huge shot in the arm for the White Sox later in the season.

The way I look at it, whatever transpires as 2009 unfolds will be a positive for the White Sox. If Poreda stays in AAA all year, it means that Colon is getting the job done and staying healthy. If Colon falters, and Richard or Marquez can’t make the most of an opportunity, then Poreda will come up and pitch. And based on the velocity and movement of his fastball, plus his brief but successful track record, he should certainly be able to have success in his first time around the league — even if his other pitches or confidence are not quite yet up to par.

So the final conclusion is this: Aaron Poreda probably won’t break camp with the White Sox, but he could very well still play a huge role in their 2009 success. Regardless, White Sox fans can get excited that even if our current lefty ace actually does retire or move to St. Louis after the completion of his current contract, we have another potential lefty ace for the next decade waiting in the wings.

———-

Jeff Marquez photo credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Aaron Poreda second photo credit: Bill Mitchell/MLB.com

———-

Other Sox links:

Marquez makes fine debut, but look out for #2 — (Sox Machine)

Do White Sox have surprising starter depth? — (South Side Sox)

Sox like their young group of sluggers — (Phil Rogers, Tribune)

Lou Piniella won’t take Ozzie Guillen’s phone calls — (MLB FanHouse)

Contreras and Jenks in the headlines — (The White Sox Blog)