The game features two rookie quarterbacks, who both have great threats at the receiver position, and a solid defense to back them up. Andy Dalton has proven everyone wrong who thought the Bengals were going to bring up the rear of the AFC North, (which the Browns took the liberty of doing), and T.J. Yates has stepped into a tough situation and taken his team to the playoffs.

The two teams met up in Week 14 in a game that went down to the wire, with T.J. Yates throwing a touchdown pass to Kevin Walter with two seconds left in the game. The Texans won 20-19, and that was the last time they won a game. The Bengals went on to finish 2-1 after the loss and secure their spot in the playoffs.

Houston Texans

Following their victory over the Bengals, the Texans have literally “limped” into the playoffs with three straight losses, along with a few injuries. T.J. Yates only threw four passes in last week’s game against the Titans due to an injured shoulder, but he will be fine for today’s game. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson have also battled injuries all year, and their well-being is crucial to Houston’s chances of winning.

The Texans’ defense is ranked second in the NFL in overall defense and will be pressuring Andy Dalton all game. They allow less than 190 yards passing and less than 96 yards rushing per game.

In the first meeting between these teams, Houston held the Bengals to 285 yards of total offense, and only one touchdown. Mike Nugent had four field goals with kept Cincinnati in the game until the end. Cedric Benson had 91 yards, which is something the defense will have to focus on. If they can avoid getting gashed for long runs, such as Benson’s 42 yard run in that game, they should be able to control the game.

The key for the Texans will be the play of rookie quarterback T.J. Yates. He went from third string rookie to a starter in the playoffs in a matter of six weeks. He began his time as the team’s signal-caller in Week 12 against Jacksonville, following Matt Leinart breaking his collarbone.

Yates’ best game came against the Bengals, in which he had 300 yards along with two touchdowns. He is only 2-3 as a starter, but most of this time was without Andre Johnson in the game. If he can avoid turning the ball over and just play a solid game, he should be able to set up the Texans to control the time of possession with help from Arian Foster and Ben Tate in the backfield.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals lost their last game of the season against Baltimore, but they still made it to the playoffs as the sixth seed. They have done this under the leadership of Andy Dalton and his favorite target A.J. Green. Dalton has battled the flu this week, but he is going to be just fine for the game.

The biggest issue with the Bengals is their play against playoff teams this year. They went 9-7, and all seven of the losses came against playoff teams, while all of their wins came against non-playoff teams. They went 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and lost to the Texans, Broncos, and 49ers. These are not easy games, but it would have been nice to see the Bengals be able to beat one of those teams.

Cincinnati’s defense comes in ranked seventh overall, while allowing just under 212 passing and 105 rushing yards per game. Getting pressure on Yates will be key, as they forced him to throw an interception in their first meeting.

It will also be important to stop the run early, which will force the Texans to become one-dimensional on offense. This requires a lead from the offense, in order to set up a necessary comeback by the Texans.

Bengals-Texans Prediction

This game should be close throughout, with neither team putting it away early. It is a toss-up, but I have to go with the Texans and their experience on offense. Yates is young, but he has Foster in the backfield, and Andre Johnson at receiver.

Texans 24 | Bengals 21

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Texans-Bengals Game Info

• Bengals-Texans Date, Time, and TV: Saturday, January 7th at 4:30 on NBC
• Bengals-Texans Point Spread: Texans -3
• Bengals-Texans Over-Under: 39

In my league of 14 teams, I finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of points…but because I had the third most points scored on me, I missed the playoffs…by a lot.

I finished second to last.

Lame.

Sometimes, fantasy football goes that way. I will spare you my three heart-breaking losses of the year because, quite frankly, we all have them…and nobody else cares.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Nobody cares Jon except for certain other people in that same league who finished in first place with an 11-2 record despite only scoring the 6th-most points but having by far the least points scored against.

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!]

Let’s get to this week.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25. Why? Because if you have a guy in the top 20…you should be thinking about starting him anyway. I’m not going to sit here and tell you “enlightening” information like, “LeSean McCoy is going to score points this week!”

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow (at NE)

He’s tied for 18th among QBs…AND HE’S ONLY PLAYED EIGHT GAMES!

If you don’t believe in Tebow yet (and by that, I mean in terms of fantasy football), you probably never will.

Tebow will be playing against the New England Patriots and their league-worst defense. It should also be mentioned that for the first time all year, John Fox was complimentary of Tebow’s passing this past week. He admitted that Tebow is improving a lot, and they will be able to start trusting him more and more in the passing game. This is great news for Tebow-owners.

Will The Broncos win this week? I’m not sure, but that doesn’t matter for your fantasy team.

Tebow will go crazy like he did two weeks ago against Minnesota. New England’s pass defense is ranked dead last in the league. Start Tebow with confidence.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 15 projection: 260 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em QBs for Week 15:

• Tony Romo – Tampa Bay is ranked 27th in the league against the pass, and Romo finally has four legitimate receiving weapons now that Miles Austin is back. Add this to the fact that they just lost DeMarco Murray, and I expect Romo to be the #1 QB of Week 15.
• Matt Stafford – Playing against Oakland (Carson Palmer…you can LOL right now). They are awful.
• Andy Dalton – Love his matchup against St. Louis. Cincinnati needs a win right now, and Dalton and AJ Green should make beautiful music in the dome on Sunday.

Sit Em QB: Mark Sanchez (at Philadelphia)

Mark Sanchez is, unbelievably, the 10th ranked QB in all of fantasy right now. Don’t be fooled though.

Sanchez has padded his stats against poor pass defenses. He put up at least 17 points against Dallas, Oakland, Miami, New England, and Buffalo. None of those teams are ranked in the top 14 in the league against the pass. Against Baltimore, Jacksonville, Denver, and Washington, he failed to break THIRTEEN.

The Eagles aren’t a great pass defense, but they are ranked 12th in the league. The way you beat the Eagles is on the ground.
Once you factor Shonn Greene’s resurgence into the picture, Sanchez is a must-sit in week 15.

Mark Sanchez fantasy football Week 15 projection: 180 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other Sit Em QBs for Week 15:

• Alex Smith – I really hope you weren’t planning on starting him. He’s been terrible lately, AND he’s playing the Steelers. Good luck with that, Mr. Smith.
• Matt Ryan – He’s the most hit or miss QB in fantasy. He could very well have a big game, especially if Julio Jones stops dropping the ball, but I think he’s a miss this week. Jacksonville has the 4th best defense in the league against the pass, and both teams are playing off of a short week on Thursday night. Stay away from Matty-Ice this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you picking Tebow as your start ‘em QB this week is the most predictable choice of 2011. It’s also correct.

Picking Sanchez as the sit ‘em QB though? Boy, I don’t know. I certainly do not agree that he a “must sit”. Do you really trust Philly and its defense that much? Even if Shonn Greene does the heavy lifting, the Jets still like to pass in the red zone.  I don’t love Sanchez, and he’s certainly not a “must start” by any means, but he does have 7 TDs over the last three games. I don’t care who they are against, that’s good. Let’s put it this way: you could do worse.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Grant (at Kansas City)

After losing Greg Jennings last week, I have the feeling that Green Bay will start playing a little bit more conservatively late in games. Fortunately for them, Ryan Grant appears to be peaking at the right time.

It always takes a while to fully recover from injury, and Grant appeared to be at top form last week.

Look for Green Bay to start shortening games in the second half as the season ends. They will definitely start this week against Kansas City and their atrocious run defense.

Ryan Grant fantasy football Week 15 projection: 150 total yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 15:

• Shonn Greene AND LaDainian Tomlinson – Don’t be freaked out that they might steal each other’s points…BOTH players should be good for more then 10 this week against Philadelphia.
• Chris Johnson – Against Indianapolis in a game that really doesn’t matter? (Tennessee is basically out of the playoffs at this point) Come on…I think we all know that this is the type of game that Chris Johnson will EXPLODE in.

Sit Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall (v San Francisco)

I will let Jerod confirm this one by explaining to you once again how impossible it is to run on San Francisco.

Rashard Mendenhall Projections: 60 total yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 15:

• Ryan Mathews – Tough matchup against Baltimore. San Diego will have to air it out to beat the Ravens.
• DeAngelo Williams – Houston is great against the run as well. I actually like Jonathan Stewart a little bit this week – he’s the Panthers’ threat to catch the ball out of the backfield – but stay away from DeAngelo Williams in Week 15.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, I pretty much agree with everything here. I’m not as high on Grant as you are, but I certainly think he’s worthy of playing for the exact reasons you explained.

As for Mendenhall, San Francisco still has not allowed 1,000 total rushing yards this year – they give up just 70.5 rushing yards per game – and have not allowed a single rushing touchdown. Sure, that second stat is a bit fluky (everyone else has allowed at least five) but you can’t even be in a position to have it unless your run D is awesome. I would sit Mendy too. If he scores, oh well. Can you really be upset with yourself?

Other running backs who simply have to be in your starting lineups because of their matchups:

• Felix Jones – yes, Felix Jones. Dallas is playing Tampa Bay, a team that has essentially quit on the season and can’t stop anyone.
• Cedric Benson – the Rams can’t stop anyone from running either.
• Roy Helu – He’s on fire, has Shanahan’s trust, and gets to face a Giants’ D that rushes the passer but barely passes the rushers.
• Arian Foster and Ben Tate – Carolina’s run D is that bad.
• Beanie Wells – Cleveland can defend the pass, at least statistically, in large part because they can’t defend the run.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Demaryius Thomas (v NE)

New England, as I covered before, is just atrocious against the pass. World-renowned Patriots fan Bill Simmons even thinks that Julian Edelman is their BEST defensive back.

Thomas has quickly become Tebow’s favorite target in the end zone ever since he returned from injury. Look for Thomas to have a BIG day again in Week 15.

Demaryius Thomas fantasy football Week 15 projection: 8 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs

Bonus Start Em WR: James Jones (at KC)

Usually, I only give you one guy that I’m super strong on, but I felt that this was too important to skip over.

The Greg Jennings injury will not hurt the Packers too badly; they will just spread around the points a little more. Look for James Jones (and Jordy Nelson) to have a huge day in Jennings’ absence.

James Jones fantasy football Week 15 projection: 6 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em WRs for Week 15:

• AJ Green – Big day for the Cincinnati passing game on the turf in St. Louis. I expect AJ to catch AT LEAST two bombs in this game.
• EVERY wide receiver for the Saints and Vikings playing in Minnesota this week – Both teams are terrible against the pass…both teams have tons of speed…both teams are playing inside. Yay, free points.

Sit Em WR: Roddy White (v JAX)

I hate his matchup, and I hate his QB this week. The only receiver I like for the Falcons this week against Jacksonville is Tony Gonzalez. I would stay away from Roddy AND Julio Jones actually, but Roddy is the guy that’s ranked in the top fifteen, so that is why he is my sit ‘em wide receiver for Week 15.

Roddy White fantasy football Week 15 projection: 4 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 15:

• Michael Crabtree – Won’t do much against the Steelers this week.
• DeSean Jackson – Revis Island.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I was going to say that’s scary how much we are agreeing this week, but then I got down to Roddy White and realized that we do disagree on something. I’m not a huge fan of White’s upside this week, but I do like his consistency. Look at those last three games (all with TDs). That’s tough to sit in the playoffs.

Let me say this about Demaryius Thomas though: be careful. He is still a rookie with questionable hands. And if he hadn’t caught that late TD from Tebow, all people would be talking about regarding him is all the drops early in the game. Can he handle the pressure of a game this big? I like him. He has explosive potential because of his talent and the matchup. Just be careful.

Other guys I particularly like this week include:

• Mike Williams of Tampa – Dallas’ secondary is pretty poor.
• Nate Washington and Damian Williams against Indianapolis.
• Antonio Brown‘s underrated consistency against San Francisco.
• Laurent Robinson – I know that Dallas has all of its weapons back, but they did last week too and he exploded again. He’s not flash in the pan. Romo loves him.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End: Jermichael Finley (at KC)

The irony here is that if you have Jermichael Finley, you probably didn’t advance in your fantasy playoffs after his goose egg from last week. However, I think he will get much more involved in the passing attack now that Greg Jennings is out, and he should have his typical explosive day that he gets once a month.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Week 15 projection: 95 yards, 2 TDs

(Yes, everybody, I’m well aware that I predicted at least three receiving TDs for the Packers after I said they would run the ball more. I don’t care. I expect all of the throwing to be done in the first half, and then Grant to dominate in the second.)

Sit Em Tight End: Vernon Davis (at PIT)

As you well know, I’m pretty high on the Steelers’ pass defense. This game will be ugly one way or the other, and nobody on the 49ers (outside of their running backs) will have a big game offensively.

Jerod’s thoughts:

What, no “other guys” to start and sit? Come on Jon! This is Week 15!

By the way, I agree on both Finley and Davis. You’d have to have balls of steel to start Finley this week, but those who made it this far probably do.

A couple of other names to consider:

• I know that Aaron Hernandez no longer gets the red zone looks in New England, but there is still value in a tight end who catches 4-5 balls per week and gets 50-70 yards. Plus, he’s due for a TD one of these days right?
• Jake Ballard continues to be a solid under-the-radar selection. He should be as well this weekend against Washington.

Guys not to consider:

• Dallas Clark caught one ball last week in his return to lineup. Don’t be seduced by the name.
• Marcedes Lewis has some yardage potential, but I just don’t see many scoring chances for anyone other than MJD against the Falcons.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Defenses

Start Em Defense: Chicago (v SEA)

They are playing with their backs against the wall, and pretty much have to hold their opponents scoreless. Fortunately for them, they are playing against Seattle. Look for the Bears to contain the Beast and dominate the Seahawks.

Also, whenever their backs are up against the wall, Devin Hester seems to do something crazy, which helps the Bears D/ST unit. 
Da Bears will play well this week.

Chicago Bears D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 10 or fewer points, 2+ turnovers, 2+ sacks, 1 TD

Sit Em Defense: Denver (v NE)

I love Denver’s offense this week, in part because I think the New England offense will have their way with the Broncos.

You can’t stop Rob Gronkowski…even with OLBs as good as Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

I will be cheering for Denver to pull it off again this week, but once again it looks like Tim Tebow will have to carry the load.

Denver Broncos D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 24 or more points, 1 turnover, 2 sacks

Jerod’s thoughts:

Okay, now I forgive you for not doing the “other” tight ends. You stepped up with some D/ST analysis! And I like both picks.

Also consider that Seattle gave up two return TDs to Ted Ginn back in Week 1. While their special teams may now be better, Hester is Hester. He offers lots of upside for Bears owners.

And as for the Broncos, you’re exactly right. Miller and Dumervil are rushing OLBs, not coverage guys. Gronk will dominate, and Welker should find plenty of success too.

Other D/STs to consider:

• Seattle’s D is criminally underrated. Facing Caleb Hanie, they too should be able to get the scoring to a minimum.
• Cincinnati playing at St. Louis is a no-brainer. So is Tennessee at Indy.

D/STs to stay away from:

• Baltimore is excellent, but they are facing a San Diego offense that is starting to click. If I had Seattle or Cincy, I’d play them over the Ravens, who face a desperate Chargers team that literally almost never loses in December.

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There you go. 2,500 words of fantasy analysis for Week 15, which should have you all ready to make every lineup decision facing you for Week 15.

Wait…what’s that? You still have questions? Well of course be our guest and pop on down to the comment section below. We’ll take good care of you, as well as be here on Sunday morning for our weekly live chat to make sure you are ready to win your playoff matchup.

Good luck in Week 15 everyone!

For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.

For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.

For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.

And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?

Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.

My apologies to those who came looking for Jon. I’m taking the start/sit reins today. I will do my very best to get you set up for success in this most pivotal of weeks.

Also, no looking back to Week 13, but not because it was a bad week. Frankly, I don’t know. I don’t even remember Jon’s picks. I assume some worked and some didn’t, like any week. But with the stakes now raised, there is no time for the rearview mirror. We look forward.

Here are your Week 14 start/sit picks:

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Matthew Stafford, DET (vs MIN)

Put this one in the no-brainer category.

Frankly, I feel a little bad making it the start em pick at QB, because it’s the equivalent of taking candy from a baby.  Nonetheless, it’s here, because if you own Matthew Stafford you absolutely must have him in your lineup this week.

And it all boils down to matchup.

If you watched the Broncos-Vikings game last week, you saw Broncos wide receivers running around wide open all day, providing easy pitch and catch opportunities for the not-so-renowned-as-a-thrower Tim Tebow. If Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker could do that against Minnesota, what do you think Stafford, Megatron, Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew will do?

Chances are they’ll pick up a few dumb penalties…and a lot of passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if Stafford, at home in a must win game for the Lions, ends up as the top scoring player in fantasy football this week, even though I’m going to be a little conservative with my projection.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 14 projection: 345 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start em QBs for Week 14:

• Rex Grossman faces a New England defense that made Dan Orlovsky startable last week. I would not start Grossman in a standard league, but he’s a solid two-QB league option this week; or a desperation fill-in with upside if your QB slot got hit by the injury bug.
• Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers Monday night, against a pretty good defense too. With his weapons healthy, and Buffalo on the schedule, Rivers is safe to deploy this week.
• Every week I scan for who is facing the Colts. This week it’s Joe Flacco. Play Joe Flacco. Even though the Ravens will likely run, run, run against Indianapolis, Flacco will throw enough to be useful. At the very least, he’s safe.

Sit Em QB: Michael Vick, PHI (at MIA)

Don’t do it. Don’t even think about it.

I know that Michael Vick owners are salivating at the thought of Vick returning this week and leading them to fantasy glory down the stretch, but in a one-QB league I wouldn’t even think about starting Vick unless I didn’t have another top 20 option. There are two good reasons:

1. Can you really trust Vick to stay healthy? No, you can’t. Really, you can’t trust him to stay healthy any week, but I’m especially leery about starting him without seeing him play a game since the rib injury.
2. Have you seen what the Dolphins are doing lately? They’ve won four out of five games, giving up a total of four touchdowns in that span.

With so many elite QBs outperforming Vick this season, and many marginal ones with good matchups, why would you risk your one QB spot on Vick?

Don’t do it.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 14 projection: 200 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, 1 total TD, 1 turnover

Other sit em QBs for Week 14:

• Those of you who relied on Andy Dalton early in the season need to look elsewhere. He’s starting to hit a rookie wall…and this week that wall is Houston and its ball control offense and stingy D.
• I’m not necessarily telling you to sit Tim Tebow, because he always finds a way to put up at least serviceable fantasy numbers. That said, don’t expect a reprise of last week when he faces the Bears.
• Josh Freeman has been a major disappointment this year. I know that Philip Rivers torched Jacksonville Monday night, but the JAX defense has been pretty stingy overall this year. There is more reason to trust Jacksonville’s D than to trust Freeman.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Mathews, SD (vs BUF)

As with the Stafford selection, I feel like I may be insulting your intelligence a bit with this pick; however, because Mathews has been so up and down, and because people always ask about him in the comment sections and live chats, I feel compelled to make my Week 14 love for him official.

First, consider that Mathews is red hot. He has two straight 100-yard games, and on Monday night he torched Jacksonville for 112 yards on a mere 13 carries. He also got into the end zone, which he doesn’t always do.

Second, consider his Week 14 opponent, the Bills, who are very generous to opposing running backs. And with Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game getting going, there will be plenty of space for Mathews to roam; and we know how much he loves space.

Ryan Mathews fantasy football Week 14 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD, 15 yards receiving

For the record, Mathews is clearly the #1 option in San Diego now over Mike Tolbert, though Tolbert still has some value as a flex option because he he’ll catch a few passes and get some goalline carries. But there is no debate right now between the two. Mathews is the guy.

Other start em RBs for Week 14:

• These should go without saying, but just to be sure: Ray Rice (v IND); Rashard Mendenhall v (CLE); Maurice Jones-Drew (v TB); Michael Turner (at CAR) – they are all top 10 options because of their proven ability and matchup.
• Adrian Peterson is supposed to play this week, at least that’s what I’m hearing. DO NOT ASK ME IF YOU SHOULD START HIM. Yes, you should. If he plays, he starts, even if the opponent is San Francisco (it’s not, it’s Detroit). End of discussion.
• Reggie Bush has to keep starting; and frankly, you should feel good about it at this point. With the Dolphins set to face the porous Eagles’ run defense, you should actually feel great about it.
• Shonn Greene is getting ready for another December heat up. He scored three TDs last week and faces the Chiefs this week. I like it.
• Looking deeper, C.J. Spiller is a decent option. He had 22 touches two weeks ago and 17 touches last week, and he’s picked up a few chunks under 200 yards with a TD during that span. You saw what MJD did the Chargers in a losing effort last week. Spiller could do about 75% of that…which is still good.

Sit Em RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB (at JAX)

Coming off of two 100-yard games, Blount looked like a surefire, slam dunk start against Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers have been the most generous defense to opposing running backs this year. What did Blount do? He punched 19 yards out of 11 carries. Yuck.

When it gets to playoff time, fantasy football is a lot like real football: you have to go with guys you can trust. It’s great that Blount has the potential for highlight reel leaps and thunderous trucks in any given week. He also can lay super eggs like he did last week. I don’t like kind of variance in my fantasy lineup in must-win scenarios.

Plus, I don’t like Blount’s matchup this week. Forget about what the Chargers did to the Jags last week. Jacksonville was dealing with turmoil galore and just happened to run into a Philip Rivers-led buzzsaw that was finally healthy. San Diego would have put up 20+ on San Francisco Monday night. Make no mistake: Jacksonville has a good defense, and they’ve been pretty stingy to opposing backs all year.

With Tampa Bay being frighteningly inconsistent as a team this year, and Blount dealing with a few unexpected distractions, I’m leaving him on my bench.

LeGarrette Blount fantasy football Week 14 projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit em RBs for Week 14:

• Every week you should go down the list of running backs and see who is facing San Francisco. This week it’s Beanie Wells. Sit him. Even with the 49ers likely to be without Patrick Willis, they’ll shut down Arizona’s run game. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to fear Wells getting hurt mid-game. Add it up, and I don’t trust him this week, despite his strong play of late.
• Cedric Benson owners have a tricky decision this week. Benson faces a very good Houston defense, but he has also proven that he can produce against good defenses even when he isn’t racking up yards (see his 41-yard, 2-TD day versus Baltimore). Benson is not an automatic sit because of how big a part of Cincy’s offense he is, but he’s only a borderline top-20 guy because of the matchup, so if you’re loaded at RB he’d be the guy to leave on the bench.
• Did you know the Falcons have the 5th-stingiest fantasy defense against the run? It’s true. That means that there could be fewer points to go around for Cam, DeAngelo, and JStew this week. Since Cam seems to be the one who gets most of the TDs, I’d consider leaving the other two on my bench unless desperate. (Remember: all that production the last two weeks has come against Indy and Tampa.)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Jabar Gaffney, WAS (v NE)

Yes, I realize that by telling you to start Jabar Gaffney that I am essentially asking you to have faith in Rex Grossman; but I urge you not to look at it that way. Think about it more in terms of me telling you to not trust a Patriots secondary that gives up more average points per game to opposing wide receivers than any other defense in football.

You read that right. In fact, the Patriots give up 2.3 more fantasy points to opposing WRs than even the moribund Vikings do! Here, I’ll prove it.

Plus:

• Gaffney has 12 catches for 187 yards over the last two weeks, including one touchdown.
• Santana Moss has been back for the last two weeks, but he only has nine catches for 71 yards; so clearly he is a) the second option for Grossman and b) helping to draw attention away from Gaffney.
• Fred Davis is suspended, meaning more targets to go around; and surely a few of those targets will go Gaffney’s way.

Gaffney doesn’t score with enough regularity to trust him for TD production, so that makes him barely a top-20 option; but I think you can trust him to give you 6-8 catches and close to 100 yards. If you play three wide receivers, it’s nice to be able to bank on that from one of them.

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 14 projection: 7 catches, 90 yards, .5 TDs (because I think he’ll catch one, but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t…so don’t expect it.)

Other start em WRs for Week 14:

• I like Torrey Smith this week. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but Baltimore has faced the 49ers and Browns, two teams that have been pretty good against opposing receivers. This week Baltimore faces Indianapolis. Yes, I just chuckled devilishly too.
• Laurent Robinson was finally held out of the end zone last week, but he still amassed 70+ yards on four catches. With Miles Austin slated to return this week, you might be tempted to sit Robinson. I wouldn’t. Tony Romo trusts him, and the Giants are generous to opposing wide receivers. Of the two, give me the guy who has been playing the last two months and caught seven TDs in six games.
• I wouldn’t get down on Steve Smith despite his decreasing production the last month. Atlanta will force Carolina to pass, and the Panthers are without Brent Grimes in the secondary. I expect fireworks from the original Steve Smith.
• When he’s healthy, all Malcom Floyd does is produce. He’s healthy, the matchup is good, and I don’t care if he’s third fiddle in SD’s passing game. Start him.

Sit Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, STL (at SEA)

I’ve been high on Lloyd ever since he came over to St. Louis, and most of the time I’ve been right. Even though the Rams’ offense sucks, Lloyd has been able to carve out a niche as the lone consistent fantasy producer. I’m not sure how he’s done it, but he has.

Last week, however, Lloyd tallied only one catch against the mighty 49ers, and things aren’t looking too good this week. Not only is Sam Bradford dinged up, but his normal backup A.J. Feeley is hurt too. That means that…wait for it…Tim Brandstater could be starting at QB for St. Louis.

Combine the Rams’ woeful offense with this QB uncertainty, and then mix in Seattle’s underrated defense at home, and you have a recipe for a sit ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 40 yards

Other sit em WRs for Week 14:

• Dwayne Bowe is on Revis Island this week, and he still has Tyler Palko tossing him the pigskin. Just didn’t want you to forget.
• I’m not telling you to sit them automatically, because both have been consistently productive this year, but just know that Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are facing the stingiest pass defense in the league. Granted, the Browns’ pass D numbers are skewed because teams just gash them with the run…but still, 12 weeks is a long time and receivers underperform against Cleveland on a weekly basis. If you have comparable options, go with them this week.
• The Redskins are stingier than you might think against opposing wide receivers. Play Gronk and Wes Welker for sure, but this is a week when Deion Branch doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
• Remember what I said above regarding my dislike for variance? Well, Julio Jones is the poster boy for wide receiver variance this year. Since Carolina is actually decent against the pass, Jones is another guy who is not an automatic sit…but who I’d have a hard time starting in a must-in situation because of how unpredictable he is.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow, TB (at JAX)

See, I don’t completely hate the Buccaneers (though I did decide to use a picture of Kellen Winslow in a Browns uniform…just because) nor irrationally love Jacksonville.

Despite their defensive consistency this year (minus Week 13) Jacksonville hasn’t been great against opposing tight ends. They actually give up the third most fantasy points per week to them.

Combine this with my distrust in the Bucs’ running game, and the Bucs’ inconsistency at wide receiver this year, and Kellen Winslow seems like, at worst, a safe and reliable option this week. You could do worse from your tight end in a big spot.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 14 projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, .5 TDs (again, I’m splitting the difference here; because of the matchup I think he can get one, but he only has two on the year.)

Other start em TEs for Week 14:

• If you’re desperate, consider Kevin Boss. The Packers give up more points to opposing tight ends than anyone, and the Raiders have had constant issues with their wide receivers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are big but inconsistent names who I think you should trust this week because of matchups.

Sit Em TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN (v HOU)

It’s tough to put Gresham here, because he’s been playing much better lately; and he really should have two more touchdowns if controversial calls had gone his way. Still, the Texans’ defense locks down opposing tight ends like few others, so as tough as Gresham is to sit, it’s even tougher to trust him.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 14 projection: 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other sit em TEs for Week 14:

• Scott Chandler has actually been decently productive without scoring touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, his production has come against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams that are more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chargers are.
• Aaron Hernandez is far from a must-sit, but he is no longer 1b to Rob Gronkowski’s 1a in New England. Gronk is clearly #1, with Hernandez picking up the scraps as #2. That still usually means 4-5 catches and 45-50 yards per week, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. Project accordingly.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v STL)

The Seahawks have been a better fantasy defense than you might think this year, and they typically play better at home. Mix in a little Tim Brandstater (if Sam Bradford can’t go) and you have all the makings of a safe, potentially explosive fantasy defense for Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 10 or fewer points, several sacks, 2+ turnovers

Other start em D/STs for Week 14:

• The Broncos should get Von Miller back, and they get to face a Bears’ offense that is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.
• The New York Jets have fallen quite a way from the must-start-against-anyone status of a couple years back, but I do like them this week against the Kansas City Palkos.

Sit Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (v NYG)

The Cowboys have been too up and down for my tastes this year. While Demarcus Ware is always around to get some sacks, and Eli Manning could always revert back to 3-INT Eli, I think this game will be a shootout, and frankly I don’t really want any part of either defense.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, two sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs for Week 14:

• Detroit’s defense might seem inviting against the 2-10 Vikings, but remember that Suh is out, Peterson is back, and Ponder-to-Harvin has become one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately; yet, even with that, and the fact that I’m telling you to sit Michael Vick this week, the presence of LeSean McCoy and Andy Reid still scares me enough to say that I wouldn’t want the Dolphins’ D starting for me in a must-win situation. The Eagles’ may suck, but they do have explosive capabilities that could, well, explode at any minute.

And that’s it! Another successful start/sit column in the books. Now it’s on to your questions. Have at the comment section, and we’ll be back all week to answer.

Also, since several of you have asked how you can help support MSF for the time we take, quite joyfully, to help you with your fantasy teams each week, I’ll just suggest checking out Daily Joust. You’ve seen me discussing them a lot this season, and they really do have a fun package of weekly fantasy games for you to play, from college to pro. Shoot, Keith Mullett thinks it’s “the best alternative to fantasy sports and gambling ever.“

Click here or on the image below, and if you become a paying member at Daily Joust we’ll end up getting a cut of the money. No pressure, just a suggestion that I’d make regardless of our affiliate status with them, and one that would help us out if you obliged.

Note: I used ESPN’s Points Against tool as a reference while writing this post.

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Hey, remember Jerome Harrison? You probably do if you had him on your fantasy team… I sure as hell do seeing as he single-handedly knocked me out of the playoffs last year.

So maybe you just snuck into the playoffs or you’re a good team who happens to have some brutal match-ups (i.e. Cedric Benson against the Steelers) – well you’re in luck because you have a Choice – crash out the playoffs in a blaze of glory or make the only logical Choice there is – add Tashard.

Yes, I’m talking about Tashard Choice, the running back that Cowboys homer in your draft always seems to grab in the last round every year and you say “LOL third-string running back”. Well boys and girls, you better hope they didn’t hang onto his sorry ass for 13 weeks  this season because the homer may just might have the final laugh – Tashard could just be this year’s Jerome.

Here’s a few reason why it just makes sense…

• Since Jason Garrett has taken over, in the past 4 games the Cowboys have ran the ball on 54% of offensive plays (134 out of 248 plays). In the previous 9 under Wade Phillips, the Cowboys only ran the ball on 33% of offensive plays (167 out of 493 plays). That’s a 21 percent increase. The Dallas running game was never able to get off the ground under saggy-tits Wade but now that it has legs with Garrett at the helm it looks like the running game is here to stay.
• The incredibly average Jon Kitna and the average passing game. Sure with Tony Romo and weapons like Miles Austion, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Roy Williams it can be easy to just disregard the running game and hope for the best throwing the ball 67% of the time. Well enjoy that sideline view Tony, who is expected to miss three more games and get better Dez Bryant, hope that broken ankle heals right. The Cowboys passing game still has enough explosiveness for defenses to respect it, but they will be leaning on the running game with the aforementioned injuries.
• Three favorable match-ups in a row with the Eagles and Redskins at home and the Cardinals on the road. People think the Eagles is a “bad” match-up for some reason, but they have allowed over a touchdown a game on the ground and have a pretty mediocre run defense. Sure the Eagles can put up points fast, but at home I like the Cowboys to stay in the game for awhile, which helps the running game. Washington and Arizona are even worse on defense, with the Redskins allowing almost 170 yards on the ground a game and the Cardinals… well… let’s just hope you play Tashard in Week 16, because that defense is awful and your wallet will probably be fatter.
• Finally, the Cowboys have nothing to lose, so they might as well see what they can get out of some unproven players like Tashard. James Harrison was in the same boat last year; with Eric Mangini’s job on the line he gave Harrison the ball 106 times in 3 weeks. Now I’m not saying Choice will get that ungodly amount of carries, but he will get more than enough touches to merit a start by most owners.

So there you have it… if you haven’t put in a waiver claim for Tashard Choice, do whatever you can to get him. If you’re playing in a waiver budget league and have any money left over, bust open that piggy bank already and put everything you got into the man who will be making a lot of fantasy owners happy around the holiday season.

Matthew Brown is a social media professional who runs a full-time soccer blog called The Trapped Fan which focuses on international soccer. Also an avid Vikings and Minnesota sports fan, you can follow him on Twitter: @trappedfan

As I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start ‘em, Sit ‘em post, I currently lead my Week 13 opponent (Brian Bassett of The Jets Blog) 61.22-36.20 in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*.

Before you get too excited for me though, take a look at who he still has left to play: QB Mark Sanchez; RB Shonn Greene; WR Danny Woodhead; TE Dustin Keller; D/ST New York Jets. Basically, if those five players average five points a piece, I’m toast.

What will make a loss burn even more is that the team I needed to lose, PUNTE‘s squad, did in fact lose. A win and I am a single game out of the final playoff spot with one week to play. I’ll have a fighting chance. A loss and I’m done, just playing Week 14 for pride.

Needless to say, I will be watching the Monday night game with great intrigue, hoping for a miracle.

Update: I don’t know how the hell it happened, but I won! Still alive baby!

Regardless of the outcome though, you can rest assured that I never bail on a fantasy football team as long as I still have games on the schedule. I simply do not believe in it. Plus, whether I’m still alive the Blogger Fantasy League or not, I have five other leagues for which I need to get ready for the playoffs.

As always, I share my research with you here at MSF Fantasy Sports. Yesterday I posted the Week 14 waiver wire sleeper picks column. In this post, I highlight players at every position that you should consider starting and others whom you should consider sitting.

Before we delve into the Week 14 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Jay Cutler, New York Giants D
• Start em misses: Fred Jackson, Mario Manningham, Tony Gonzalez
• Sit em hits: Randy Moss, Kellen Winslow, Arizona Cardinals D, LT
• Sit em misses: Tom Brady (HUGE MISS!)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start, Sit Picks

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 14.

***Indianapolis and Tennessee play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (v New England)

No, you are not seeing things. I am recommending Jay Cutler as my start ‘em QB for the second straight week. Though Cutler underperformed my lofty expectations against Detroit in Week 13, going 21-26 for 234 yards with one TD and no INTs is nothing to be ashamed of. That’s a solid 12-15 points in any scoring system and certainly good enough to have helped you win your matchup.

In Week 13, the call was easy. Cutler had been playing well, he was facing a defense that had been carved up recently by opposing QBs, and he had a great history against them. In Week 14, the call isn’t quite so easy, but the stats and trends still suggest that it’s a good one.

First of all, let’s discuss the matchup. Cutler faces a New England secondary that, coming into Week 13, was giving up the 4th post fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. (Note: I am writing this on Monday night, so I do not know how the Patriots will fare against Mark Sanchez and the Jets, but 11 games of shoddy secondary play speaks more to me than whatever they do Monday night.)

And here is the other thing about the Patriots: they do not generate much of a pass rush from their front four. New England has to use creative blitzes to get pressure on the QB, and Cutler has been doing a much better job lately of hitting his hot receivers and not getting flustered by the blitz. Just look at his numbers: Cutler has 5 TDs and 1 INT over the last three games. For the season, he has 16 TDs, just 10 INTs (down from 26 last year), and he even has 189 rushing yards. Hey, every little bit helps right?

It’s taken me until now to really buy into the Bears as an NFC playoff contender, but they cannot be ignored any longer. The same is true with Jay Cutler. He is still capable of putting up a huge day every week – witness his 4 TD, 0 INT game in Week 12 – but what makes Cutler different this year is that he is minimizing mistakes and not putting up the truly awful games anymore. Let’s hope that continues. The matchup suggests it will.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 14 projection: 245 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Joe Flacco starts against Houston. There you go.
• Josh Freeman has been surprisingly consistent all year long. He faces a Washington defense in Week 14 that typically gives up big days to opposing QBs.
• I had Kyle Orton listed here when I originally wrote this, but then pass-happy Josh McDaniels got fired, replaced by the Denver running backs coach. With Arizona boasting one of the worst run Ds in the NFL, I tend to think Knowshon Moreno will get plenty of touches, perhaps limiting Orton’s value somewhat. He’s not a bad start, but not quite as good as if McD was still around.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em QB: Matt Cassel, Kansas City (at San Diego)

Matt Cassel has been a revelation this season. Coming into Week 13, Cassel had thrown 22 TDs and only 4 INTs. He had been, in a word, incredible. Certainly, this kind of production was unexpected from a guy who threw just 16 TDs last year along with 16 INTs.

In Week 13, Cassel did not continue his streak of 2-TD games. He had thrown at least two TDs in four straight games, but tossed just one in Week 13. He wasn’t terrible – 17-31, 196 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT – but it wasn’t the explosive day we’ve come to expect. This pedestrian production was somewhat surprising considering Cassel’s success against Denver early in the season and their #31 ranking in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.

In Week 14, Cassel has a much less promising matchup. He faces a San Diego defense that is #2 in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. And before you say that they played terribly on defense in Week 13, understand that Jason Campbell had just 117 yards and a TD…and that was above the Chargers’ season average for fantasy points allowed to QBs.

If Cassel is your #1 QB and you don’t have a decent backup, he’s okay to play this week. I list him here because I don’t think he’ll end up as a top 12 QB in my rankings, and he could be sat for someone like Josh Freeman, Kyle Orton, or Joe Flacco if that is a decision your roster provides.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week 14 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Sam Bradford faces a New Orleans pass D that doesn’t give up many passing TDs. This is a good week to sit the rookie.
• I know that a lot of people like Jon Kitna, and I have to admit that he’s playing a lot better than I thought he would filling in for Tony Romo, but I don’t like the matchup against Philadelphia.
• Tom Brady faces a Chicago defense that tops in the league at defending opposing QBs – in terms of fantasy points and TD passes allowed. It’s tough to sit him, but if you have another good-to-very-good option, this would be the week to use it. [Update: This hasn't been posted for 15 minutes yet and I already take this back. Tom Brady is carving up the Jets as we speak. I think he's hot enough right now that matchup is irrelevant.]

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at San Francisco)

Marshawn, you aren’t fooling me.

I know that many of you will be impressed with Lynch’s 3-TD game in Week 13. While it was impressive, there are plenty of reasons for you to not buy into a late season resurgence for Lynch.

• In Week 13, Lynch and the Seahawks faced the Panthers, a team that is among the most generous to opposing running backs. In Week 14, Lynch and the Seahawks face the 49ers, who are among the least generous to opposing RBs.
• Look at Lynch’s game log, paying special attention to the weeks preceding his Week 13 outburst. Not only had he not had more than 13 carries in any of the five previous games, but he’d only scored once.

So, do I think Marshawn Lynch’s 3-TD game was an aberration? Yes, although that is admittedly pretty obvious. What is less obvious is if it suggests that Lynch will become useful down the stretch. I don’t think so. His previous five games speak much louder to me than one great game against a bad run D.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 14 projection: 12 carries, 45 yards, 0 TDs, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 14:

• Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams seemed to be on the verge of breaking out coming into Week 13. Then they and the Dolphins offense sputtered against Cleveland. Against a Jets D that gives up the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, two guys who split carries don’t have a whole lot of value.
• Jonathan Stewart has a nice day against Seattle in Week 13 and has looked good since returning. The Seahawks, however, have a pretty poor run D. The Falcons, Stewart’s opponent in Week 14, do not. The going could be much tougher.
• Cedric Benson faces the Steelers in Week 14. Though he is coming off a 2-TD day against New Orleans, and though he scored against Pittsburgh earlier this year, it’s still not a matchup I like. You trust Cedric Benson at your own peril.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em WR: Anquan Boldin, Baltimore (at Houston)

It’s been a frustrating year for Anquan Boldin owners. Coming into Week 13, Boldin had only six TD catches on the season. Take away Boldin’s 3-TD, 142-yard outburst against Cleveland, and his numbers would be barely pedestrian. Basically, Boldin has been nothing more than a borderline starter for most of the season.

However, signs are pointing up for Boldin’s fantasy value, at least this week. Not only did he catch a long TD for the Ravens against Pittsburgh in Week 13, but he faces a Houston secondary that is among the worst in the league in containing opposing WRs. If you own Boldin, this is the week to play him. His next two games are against New Orleans and then Cleveland again; New Orleans has been good all year against the pass and Cleveland is vastly improved since the last time Boldin saw them.

But forget about the future right now. In this column we are concerned with Week 14. Take a look at how #1 WRs have done against Houston this year. It is pretty remarkable. I’d be shocked if Boldin didn’t put up solid numbers you this week.

Anquan Boldin fantasy football Week 14 projection: 8 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 14:

• I know that Dwayne Bowe did nothing in Week 13, and I know he faces a tough Chargers pass D in Week 14, and I know I told you to sit Matt Cassel above…but…I’d still start Bowe, who has been too good this year for us to be soured by one bad game. (And this comes from a guy who has always hated and distrusted Dwayne Bowe.)
• I like Earl Bennett a lot this week. He is becoming Jay Cutler’s go-to guy, and the matchup against New England is very promising.
• Calvin Johnson continues to prove how amazing he is. Against the Bears stingy D and with a 3rd stringer in at QB, MegaTron still got into the end zone and provided nice value. Just keep him in your lineups. Please. Even if I change my mind later this week, tell me to shut the hell up and still start him. Okay? Okay.
• You know that you’re starting Greg Jennings. Also consider both Donald Driver and James Jones as a decent WR #3 options as well.
• Mike Williams TB against Washington is a nice start this week.

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Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see our start em RB for Week 14, our sit ‘em WRs for Week 14, as well as our start em, sit em projections at TE and Defense.

Commenting is turned of here, but you can ask your Week 14 lineup questions over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

Though I did a good job answering specific questions with all relevant lineup/league info (as I feel I usually do), Week 9 was certainly less than stellar with respect to the top-line picks.

While I nailed Eli Manning as a start and Seattle’s D as a sit…that was pretty much it. See below. The carnage was ugly.

But you know me. Bad weeks only motivate me more to dig deeper into the numbers and trends. I am committed to making Week 10 a much more accurate week over all…as much for your teams as for my own.

I am writing this while watching Monday Night Football. I need a 20 point night from Mike Wallace to pull out a win in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and with the Steelers up 17-7 and Wallace not having a TD yet, that seems unlikely. If I lose, I’ll be 5-4 and in pretty serious need of a winning streak to ensure I at least make the playoffs.

Remember, the stakes are the Super Bowl, so you know I’m overturning every stone in an effort to win – like my last minute of pick up of Seyi Atirotutu on Sunday (see, it wasn’t all bad!). The upshot is that I regurgitate all of this research into these columns, hopefully helping you out in the process.

Before we delve into the Week 10 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 9 (ugh) with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack. Last week’s winner was commenter nik. Who will win this week?
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 9 recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Eli Manning,
• Start ‘em misses: Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Todd Heap, New England D
• Sit ‘em hits: Seattle Seahawks D
• Sit ‘em misses: Matthew Stafford, Steve Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Cedric Benson

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: the following teams are on bye in Week 10:

• San Diego Chargers
• Oakland Raiders
• New Orleans Saints
• Green Bay Packers
  

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em QB: David Garrard, Jacksonville (v Houston)

If you read this week’s waiver wire sleepers column, you know that David Garrard is my “gold star pickup of the week.” Why? Well look no further than the Houston Texans pass defense. This porous unit has given up 20 TDs in 8 games this year, and is one of the most targetable defensive units I can remember in my history playing fantasy football.

Also, Garrard has not been a slouch this year, despite his shoddy reputation. Sure, he’s been inconsistent, but that’s who he is. David Garrard is inconsistent. It’s a tenet of fantasy football.

But he has thrown for at least two TDs in four of his seven starts this year, and the games he struggled in were against the solid pass defenses of Tennessee, Philly, and San Diego. Against more suspect pass defenses like Dallas and Buffalo, Garrard has taken advantage. And suspect would be a kind way of describing Houston’s pass D.

Worth noting as well: Garrard has historically been much better at home than away. He is absolutely a must start this week. He’ll be in my top 10, the question is will he be top 5?

David Garrard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• Michael Vick against Washington’s generous pass defense is an obvious play.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick actually had a decent showing against a very tough Bears defense. He faces the much more forgiving Detroit secondary in Week 10.
• Whoever starts for the Lions – Matthew Stafford or Shaun Hill (but not Drew Stanton, I don’t trust him) – is a solid start against the Buffalo Bills.
• Eli Manning is a very good start at home against Dallas. He torched them a few weeks ago and the Giants are red hot right now. The Cowboys are the opposite of red hot.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at Chicago)

I know that you Brett Favre owners probably had the old man on your bench in Week 9 (a wise move, despite the result) and had to watch him put up two TDs and 446 passing yards. You are probably itching to get him in your lineup this week, especially if you have Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, or Aaron Rodgers.

Unfortunately for you (or perhaps fortunately), I am here to throw some cold water on you with the following realities:

• The Bears have allowed only five passing touchdowns all season
• Favre continues to start and finish most games, but he gets older and more dinged up each week. Don’t you think the physical Bears will try everything they can to smack their old nemesis around? Favre staying healthy is a major risk each week for the rest of the season.
• The numbers Brett put up last week were against a very weak Cardinals pass D. Sidney Rice is not expected to be back at full strength by next Sunday (though he should play) meaning Favre will have to go against the Bears’ secondary with Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Greg Camarillo again.

I absolutely think Favre needs to be the starter for the Vikings, and I think he has a shot to put up more consistent numbers once Sidney Rice gets back to full strength, but with so many good “second tier” QB options like Garrard and Fitzpatrick out there, why risk playing Favre when he is throwing so many INTs and so banged up? I just don’t like the risk/return here.

Brett Favre fantasy football Week 10 projection: 275 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• I would like to apologize to everyone for having Chad Henne ranked so highly last week. I’m done with him. He sucks.
• Carson Palmer against the Indy pass D? No thanks. At least, not top 10. He did have another solid game against Pittsburgh, I just don’t totally trust him yet.
• Don’t get cute and think you should start Colt McCoy because he’s playing well in real life. The Browns’ offense does not produce passing TDs, and the Jets have lots of talent in their secondary.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at Arizona)

You probably think I’m crazy. Why would I tell you to start a running back who has 57 yards on 20 carries with no touchdowns the last two weeks? Well, to be honest, it’s all about the matchup.

The Seahawks face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. The Cardinals give up in the neighborhood of 130 rushing yards per game. They have also given up nine rushing TDs this season (and it should be 10 if the Vikings would have given Adrian Peterson one more goalline try in the 4th quarter…but I digress.)

So while Lynch has been a major disappointment the last couple of weeks, and will continue to be up and down, this is one of the “up” weeks. Hopefully Matt Hasselbeck will be back too, which should help the Seattle offense provide more scoring opportunities for its running backs.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 10 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 10:

• I’m not a huge fan of the matchup versus the Jets, but Peyton Hillis is officially a must start now. How can he not be?
• I didn’t like Cedric Benson last week against Pittsburgh, but I do like him this week against Indy.
• Fred Jackson is a sneaky-good start against the relatively forgiving Lions’ D this week, and CJ Spiller is even worth a flyer in deeper leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, New York Jets (at Cleveland)

Yes, that’s right. I’m telling you to sit the running backs from a 6-2 team against the Cleveland Browns. Here’s why:

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see why LT and Shonn Greene are good sit ‘em candidates this way, as well as the rest of the sit ‘em RBs, and my Week 10 start em, sit em picks at WR, TE, and Defense.

Note that commenting is turned off here, but you can ask your team-specific questions in the comment section of any post over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

If AJ Burnett can somehow pitch well in Game 4 and the Yankees win, they will find themselves at a very fortuitous 2-2…but 2-2 nonetheless.

Keep this in mind with your fantasy teams.

Maybe you’ve started off slowly this year with plenty of underperforming players. Maybe you grabbed one or two lucky wins and are just hanging on right now. Well, hang on. Work a little harder. Study the waiver wire. Study your players and the matchups to make better choices. You never know when you’re team can get hot and rattle of 3, 4, 5 victories in a row.

At this point, you’re probably stuck with 80-85% of your roster, so don’t give up. There is still plenty of season left to fight your way into the playoffs.

And with that said, let’s fight our way to victories in Week 7.

But first, as always, a quick look back at Week 6:

• Start ‘em hits: Ben Roethlisberger, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mike Wallace
• Start ‘em misses: Chicago D, Chris Cooley
• Sit ‘em hits: Tom Brady, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Tate, New England D
• Sit ‘em misses: Todd Heap

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A

Note: the Lions, Texans, Colts, and Jets are on bye in Week 7.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Deion Branch” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. But if you own Roy Williams, yes I’d start Roy. I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Buffalo)

The Bills were off in Week 6. During the first five weeks of the season they gave up 2+ TDs per game (11 total) and picked off only one pass. Don’t be fooled by the their low yardage total allowed (200 per game). That was mostly a function of teams getting up early and often on Buffalo and then choosing to run the ball.

Joe Flacco has disappointed many of his fantasy owners, but he’s coming off of a 2-TD, 285-yard performance against New England, and now has 6 TDs and 1 INT over the last four weeks.

The Ravens will be smarting after their OT loss to the Patriots and cannot afford a letdown against the Bills. They’ll come out ready to play and Flacco will have a solid day.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 7 projection: 250 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 7:

• Tony Romo is a bag full of good and bad. He throws for lots of yards, throws lots of TDs, and also throws lots of INTs. But he throws, a lot, regardless of the game, and that’s why you need to keep him in your lineups.
• Chad Henne is not a guy I trust long-term this season. However, with Pittsburgh sporting the league’s best run D, the Dolphins will be forced to pass. If Colt McCoy could have a solid day against Pittsburgh with virtually no weapons, Henne should be able to put up some decent numbers with Brandon Marshall if you’re desperate for bye week filler.
• I like Sam Bradford against Tampa Bay, even with his no-name group of wide receivers. The Bucs gave up a nice day to Drew Brees in Week 6. Take about 3/4 of that and I think that’s what you can get from Bradford in Week 7.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (vs Washington)

I just do not trust Jay Cutler. More specifically, I don’t trust his offensive line to give him any significant amount of time to effectively play his position. (And I also don’t like nor trust Jay Cutler. At all.)

In Week 6, Cutler returned from his concussion and threw 290 yards. That doesn’t sound bad, expect when you qualify it by saying that he was 17-39 and threw no TDs. And this comes on the heels of Cutler throwing 1 TD against 2 INTs in his previous two games.

I realize that Washington has given up a lot of passing yards this season, but they can also rush the passer pretty well. With the way the Bears’ passing game has sputtered the last two weeks, I want to see it succeed before I trust Cutler again.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 7 projection: 275 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 7:

• Matt Ryan threw two TDs last week against Philly, but both came after the Falcons fell behind 21-0. In Week 7, I expect the Falcons to be leading the Bengals, and thus able to run more. Plus, Cincinnati has a couple of good corners that will make life tough on the Falcons’ WRs.
• Carson Palmer does not start until further notice. And I’m not sure that notice will ever come. I certainly don’t like him against a pissed off Atlanta defense.
• Matt Cassel threw for 3 TDs against Houston’s D. While Jacksonville’s pass D is nothing to write home about, they are not historically bad like Houston’s is. Go ahead and trust Cassel if you want to. I won’t.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (vs Oakland)

It’s been a long season for Knowshon Moreno owners. The talented second-year back has been hobbled by a hamstring injury most of the season, although he did score TDs in each of the first two weeks. Finally, Moreno got back on the field in Week 6, and he did okay. He only got 12 carries against the Jets, but he did earn 4 yards per carry, which is a decent sign that the hammy is better.

The reason Moreno is a good start in Week 7 is his matchup. Denver faces an Oakland team that was ranked 31st in the NFL against the run coming into the game, giving up 147.8 yards per game rushing. In Week 7, Frank Gore torched the Raiders for 149 yards rushing. I’m not sure Moreno will do that well, but if you’ve stayed patient with him, you have to play him this week.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 7 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 7:

• Cedric Benson has run well the last the two weeks. As badly as Carson Palmer has been playing, you know they’ll keep giving it to Benson. Keep him in your lineup.
• Ahmad Bradshaw continues to put up solid numbers. He also has a career 4.7 yard average against the Cowboys, who have given up solid fantasy days to three straight runners.
• I was not high on Marshawn Lynch in Week 7, yet he got 17 carries and scored a TD at the Bears. He should find the going a bit easier against Arizona, which has one of the league’s worst run defenses.

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see who my sit ‘em RBs are and to see my start / sit picks at WR, TE, and Defense.

Note: commenting is turned off for this post. Ask your questions over in the comment section using one of the links above.

So sit back, relax, and strap it down as I go through a few running backs dealing with injuries that could affect their Week 4 performance, then link you to a rundown of every injury that will affect your fantasy football week 4 lineup decisions.

Note: Follow this link, as I just posted the latest injury update on Ray Rice.

There are plenty of other running backs, many from teams with Midwest ties, who are hobbled this week. Among them:

Steven Jackson Week 4 Injury Update

Steven Jackson did not practice on Thursday as he tries to recover from a groin injury. The latest injury update on SJax is that he is expected to test out the groin today in practice, at which time we should know more about his expected availability for Sunday.

We’ve seen Jackson have nagging injuries and still play, and play well, so perhaps that will happen here. Keep your eye on today’s reports and grab Kenneth Darby if you haven’t already.

Jahvid Best Week 4 Injury Update

Lions rookie RB Jahvid Best has been out of practice this week while dealing with a turf toe injury. The latest injury update on Best is that he is, however, expected to practice today and thinks he’ll be able to play Sunday.

Watch the reports from practice today, but temper expectations if he does play. The Lions face Green Bay, a team very adept at stopping the run.

Cedric Benson Week 4 Injury Update

Cedric Benson has a knee issue, but practiced fully on Thursday and should be fine for Sunday’s matchup against Cleveland. I like him to have a solid day.

And in other Midwest-related injury news, Colts WR Austin Collie, who has been one of the best and most surprising fantasy players this year, has a heel issue that has limited him in practice. He is expected to be fine for Sunday.

There are plenty of other injured players, including Andre Johnson, Pierre Thomas, Fred Taylor, and Louis Murphy. Click over to MSF Fantasy Sports for the complete rundown of all the Week 4 injuries that will affect your fantasy lineup decisions.

Here are a few games that all NFL fans should keep their eyes on on Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals – 1:00pm

The Ravens are coming off an interesting victory on Monday Night against the Jets, 10-9. Yet, their offense seems almost too powerful for a Bengals secondary that allowed 38 points against the Patriots in week one.

How does the Bengals secondary stop a three-headed attack of Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh? The Jets did somewhat of a decent job, holding them in check all game, but in the end, the Ravens offense recorded 282 total yards of offense

Carson Palmer had a decent outing against the Patriots, throwing for only two touchdowns and one interception. Despite the loss, Palmer recorded 345 yards through the air, which needs to happen again. The Jets had some success against the Ravens secondary, but Palmer will need to rely heavily on the 10 other offensive players to be successful.

Look for both teams to establish the running game early, especially the Bengals because Cedric Benson tallied 237 yards on the ground and two touchdowns against the Ravens in ’09. Benson will be a major benefactor in this game if he receives the correct blocking schemes, as well as uses his vision to find holes in the Ravens defense. 

Prediction: Bengals 27 – Ravens 23

New England Patriots at New York Jets – 4:15pm

Rex Ryan seems to be rather hungry for a victory, especially since all Patriots fans know now that his favorite saying is “Let’s go eat a goddamn snack!” That is plenty of bulletin board material for coach Bill Belichick.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez wasn’t impressive in his week one affair against the Ravens, especially since he threw for a total of 74 yards. Although, against a Patriots defense that isn’t so great, Sanchez and his receivers, Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards, along with tight end Dustin Keller, should put more points on their brand new scoreboard at the New Meadowlands Stadium.

The defense will miss nose tackle Kris Jenkins, who was excellent at clogging the middle, but don’t think that Ryan is too worried about his defense providing pressure for Justin Bieber look alike, Tom Brady.

Brady and his offense looked like a mirror image of their ’07 squad last Sunday, which put points on the board ever so easily. Although against a Jets team that has been talking all week long about covering Randy Moss, expect cornerback Darrelle Revis to receive a great deal of attention from Brady.

This matchup should be much closer than expected, so don’t assume any blowouts, but in the end, the Patriots will walk away with a victory and 2-0 record. 

Prediction: Patriots 23 – Jets 16

New York Giants at Indianapolis 8:20pm:

Are you excited for the Manning Bowl? It is game two of Eli versus Peyton and I am almost certain that the Manning family circled this game on their calendars when the 2010 schedule was released.

Last time the two brothers met was opening night of the ’06 season and Peyton Manning not only led the Colts to victory in New York, but also, he guided them toward a Super Bowl championship too.

As for the game itself, it features two teams headed in completely different directions. The Colts looked dumbfounded against the Texans, especially when it came to stopping the run. Texans running back Arian Foster ran all over the Colts defense for 231 yards, along with three touchdowns too. The Giants won’t beat their opponent by running, but instead, airing it out to Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham or Steve Smith. Currently, the Giants rank fourth in points, but it will be somewhat challenging for Eli Manning to lead his offense to score more than 31 points.

Expect a possible shootout in Indianapolis, but once the final whistle is blown, the winner should be the home team. 

Prediction: Colts 31 – Giants 17

The Week 17 start em, sit em lineup advice post is up.

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It’s that time of the week again: time for your early look at Week 3 of the 2009 fantasy football season with this week’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em post.

As usual before we begin, it’s accountability time. Let’s see how I did in last week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em post:

• Start ‘Em Hits: QB Jay Cutler (236 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT); WR Terrell Owens (3 rec, 52 yards, TD); Green Bay Packers D/ST (31 pts allowed, 2 sacks, 2 INTs, Defensive TD)
• Start ‘Em Misses: RB Ahmad Bradshaw (37 yards rushing, 2 rec, 8 yards receiving); TE Robert Royal (1 rec, 13 yards)
• Sit ‘Em Hits: RB Julius Jones (11 yards rushing, 3 rec, -2 yards receiving, 1 TD); TE Jeremy Shockey (4 rec, 49 yards); Philadelphia D/ST (42 pts allowed, 2 sacks, 1 safety)
• Sit ‘Em Misses: QB Peyton Manning (303 yards passing, 2 TDs); Dwayne Bowe (5 rec, 56 yards, TD)
• Sleeper Hits: RB Correll Buckhalter (76 yards rushing, 1 rec, 30 yards receiving, 1 TD); Washington Redskins D/ST (7 pts allowed, 1 sack, 1 TO)
• Sleeper Misses: QB Shaun Hill (144 yards passing, 0 TD); WR Robert Meachem (1 rec, 11 yards); TE Vernon Davis (2 rec, 32 yards)

Obviously I am proud of my Cutler recommendation when everyone else was telling you to sit him, but there are a few valuable lessons that I was reminded of last week:

1. Don’t ever sit Peyton Manning, especially against a suspect pass defense like Miami. In hindsight, this pick was more with my heart (as a Dolphins fan) than with my head. With less than 15 minutes of possession, Manning still had a great night. Stars typically play well on the biggest stages, and I should have looked elsewhere for a top-line QB who might not have a great day rather than telling you to sit an all-time great.
2. Don’t pick any Browns offensive players until they show some semblance of competence on offense.
3. Perhaps Vernon Davis isn’t going to explode and become a superstar this year. Either way, Brent Celek is the other guy I was considering last week and he is quickly a becoming a weekly must start TE. Amends are made below.

All in all, slightly more hits than misses, but still work to be done. I take these recommendations very seriously and want to steer you in the right direction.

I’m mainly trying to get tuned up for the bye weeks, because that’s where start ‘em, sit ‘em advice and sleeper picks really become important. But let’s see if I can build on my Week 2 improvement and have closer to a perfect week in Week 3.

As always, the comment section is yours. Post any lineup or waiver wire question and I’ll answer it as soon as I’m able up until kickoff.

Now onto the start ‘em, sit ‘em picks for Week 3.

Fantasy Football

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills (vs New Orleans)

I was high on Trent Edwards as a sleeper coming into the season and a lot of people laughed at me. Well after two games, who’s laughing now?

Edwards has been solid so far: 221 passing yards per game, 4 TDs, and 1 INT. This week, he gets to go up against a defense that has given up a lot of passing yards this year (288 per game) but also gotten its fair share of turnovers (6 INTs).

Trent Edwards though, unlike Matthew Stafford and Kevin Kolb, will not be making his first career start against the Saints.

We know that New Orleans can and will score, and that the Bills will have to keep pace to have a chance. I already predicted that the Bills will cover the 5.5 point spread at home in this week’s TV schedule and point spreads post, so obviously I think they will do just that.

With Fred Jackson providing a solid rushing complement to Edwards’ sound decision making and outside playmakers (T.O. and Lee Evans), this Buffalo offense has been one of the more underrated units in the NFL through two weeks.

Look for Edwards to get into a bit of a shootout with Drew Brees. He won’t win it — either in real life or fantasy — but he will put up points worthy of a starting spot in most leagues.

Trent Edwards Week 3 projection: 285 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Others I like in Week 3: Philip Rivers (vs Miami); Matt Schaub (vs Jacksonville); Eli Manning (at Tampa Bay); Joe Flacco (vs Cleveland)

Sit ‘Em: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (vs Pittsburgh)

So far in 2009, Carson Palmer has been pretty ho-hum. He threw for 247 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs in Week 1 against Denver, then rebounded somewhat with a 2 TD performance this past Sunday (but with only 185 yards and 2 INTs).

Many people expected Palmer to reassert himself as a top-10 or even top-5 fantasy quarterback this year. So far it hasn’t happened, despite the reemergence of the Bengals’ running game.

This will be Carson Palmer’s first game against the Steelers since December of 2007 after missing most of last year with an injury. And though Troy Polamalu will still not be in the lineup for Pittsburgh — and Jay Cutler had a good day against the Steelers last Sunday — I’d like to see a little more consistency from the Bengals passing game before I throw Palmer out there against such a great defense.

Palmer may have a decent day, and I would not sit Chad Ochocinco, but there are other 2nd-tier QBs that you might also have that I like better, including: Matt Schaub (vs JAX), Aaron Rodgers (vs STL), Eli Manning (at TB), Trent Edwards (vs New Orleans).

Carson Palmer Week 3 projection: 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Others I don’t like in Week 3: Kerry Collins (at New York Jets); Brett Favre (vs San Francisco); Kyle Orton (at Oakland)

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Running Backs

Start ‘Em: Steve Slaton, Houston (vs Jackonsville)

There are some easy RB choices this week (look below in Others I Like) but I’m not taking the easy way out. I am a Steve Slaton owner, and others like me are probably wondering whether sitting Slaton is a good idea after watching him rush for 51 yards and not get into the end zone through the season’s first two games.

Start him. I am. And here’s why:

• Last year in two games against Jacksonville, Slaton rushed for 166 yards, had 135 yards receiving, and scored 3 TDs.
• Jacksonville’s defense has been overrated against the run for a few years now. They have already given up two rushing TDs in two games this year against the two worst rushing attacks in the NFL from 2008 (Indy, Arizona). Last year, they were 13th in the NFL against the run and gave up 14 TDs. Decent but not great, and I don’t think they are even that good this year.
• Slaton is due.

Houston knows they have to run the ball to be successful this year. Last week, they got their passing game going against Tennessee. This week, it will be all about the run. Slaton had tough matchups in Weeks 1 and 2 (Jets, Titans) but should find plenty more room to run this week.

Steve Slaton Week 3 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD, 5 rec, 55 yards receiving

Other RBs — specifically, good ones who have struggled so far in 2009 — I like in Week 3: Steven Jackson (vs Green Bay); Clinton Portis (vs Detroit); Matt Forte (at Seattle)

Sit ‘Em: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (vs Pittsburgh)

Can you tell that I think it’s going to be a tough day for the Bengals at home against Pittsburgh?

Look, I’m a card-carrying member of the I Hate Cedric Benson Club, but even I can’t deny that he has been very good this year. He’s run for 217 yards through two games and has scored a TD. But Pittsburgh has one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses week in and week out, and they have already shut down fantasy studs Chris Johnson and Matt Forte in back-to-back weeks.

Why in the hell would a perennial fantasy stiff like Benson do what those two could not?

You want numbers? Here you go: Last year, Pittsburgh gave up 80.2 yards per game on the ground and allowed only seven rushing TDs all year. This year, they are giving up only 64.5 yards per game and have yet to give up a rushing score. Cedric Benson has a career average of 3.7 yards per carry and has scored a grand total of 13 TDs in 49 games.

No thank you. That was easy.

Cedric Benson Week 3 projection: 41 yards, 0 TDs

Other RBs I don’t like in Week 3: Thomas Jones (vs Tennessee); LenDale White (at New York Jets); Willie Parker (at Cincinnati); Larry Johnson (at Philadelphia)

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em: Derrick Mason, Baltimore (vs Cleveland)

Cleveland’s defense has actually not been as bad as you might think. It is the offense that has truly been putrid. The problem is that the offense’s inability to stay in the field has led to tired legs in the second half and big plays for the opposition.

With Hank Poteat looking absolutely incompetent covering the slot, Derrick Mason could have another good game against the Browns. Here are his last four outings against Cleveland, the first two of which were with Joe Flacco at QB last season: 9 rec, 136 yards, TD; 4 rec, 42 yards; 6 rec, 83 yards; 10 rec, 78 yards.

Not too shabby.

Mason is hit or miss in terms of touchdowns, but makes an especially solid play this week in PPR leagues. The Browns will give up a lot of underneath receptions, which is exactly where Mason likes to operate. Plus, Baltimore should get up early and be salting away a win in the second half, which means they probably won’t be going deep too often after the first couple of quarters.

Derrick Mason Week 3 projection: 7 receptions, 87 yards, 1 TD

Other WRs I like in Week 3: Torry Holt (at Houston); Braylon Edwards (at Baltimore); Lee Evans (vs New Orleans); Mario Manningham and Steve Smith (at Tampa Bay); Desean Jackson (vs Kansas City); Johnny Knox (at Seattle)

Sit ‘Em: Donnie Avery, St. Louis (vs Green Bay)

A lot of fantasy owners had high hopes for Donnie Avery on the heels of his breakout rookie campaign during which he caught 53 balls or 674 yards and 3 TDs. Through two games in 2009, however, Avery has only 7 catches for 50 yards.

This week, the Rams play a Green Bay defense that was shredded by the Bengals last week at home. Green Bay’s primary problem on D is their inability to stop the run, but they do have two solid cornerbacks in Charles Woodson and Al Harris that will make life difficult for Avery and Laurent Robinson.

For St. Louis to win on Sunday, Steven Jackson will need to be the first, second, and third options in the offense. I think Avery will see limited targets, especially with Robinson’s emergence (11 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD on the season).

Donnie Avery Week 3 projection: 3 rec, 35 yards, 0 TD

Other WRs I don’t like in Week 3: Nate Washington (at New York Jets); Laveraneus Coles (vs Pittsburgh); Nate Burleson (vs Chicago)

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Tight Ends

Start ‘Em: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs Kansas City)

I should have listed Brent Celek here last week and taken advantage of his 8 catch, 104-yard performance. Alas, I did not; but I am righting that wrong this week.

Celek has been outstanding so far this year, catching no fewer than six passes through the Eagles’ first two games. Kevin Kolb, the likely starter for this Sunday’s game against Kansas City, clearly likes Celek and will throw the ball his way often.

And guess what? Kansas City sucks, which makes this a really solid matchup for Celek and his owners.

Brent Celek Week 3 projection: 8 rec, 79 yards, 1 TD

Other TEs I like in Week 3: Todd Heap (vs Cleveland); Dustin Keller (vs Tennessee)

Sit ‘Em: Benjamin Watson, New England (vs Atlanta)

I’m afraid fantasy owners are going to overrate Ben Watson for at least the first few weeks of the season. His Week 1 numbers will skew his cumulative totals and make otherwise sensible owners forget that he has caught only 58 passes over the past two seasons.

Watson was tremendous in Week 1, catching six balls for 77 yards and 2 TDs, but that was more of a fluky function of that game’s situation and a specific defense Buffalo had been employing that Tom Brady took advantage of in the waning moments of the game.

I expect Tom Brady to look deep early and often against the Falcons. Watson may catch a few balls, but there are plenty of better options who are probably available, but may not have the gaudy and misleading two week stats that Watson has put up so far.

Ben Watson Week 3 projection: 3 rec, 24 yards, 0 TD

Other TEs I don’t like in Week 3: Zach Miller (vs Denver)

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Defense / Special Teams Units

Start ‘Em: Denver Broncos at Oakland

Denver’s D was a much-maligned unit heading the 2009 season, but thus far is the #2 ranked defense in fantasy. Granted, they played the Browns last week to help prop up the numbers, but they also held a pretty potent Cincinnati offense in check the week prior.

What I like about Denver’s D is their ability to pressure the quarterback. Elvis Dumervil alone sacked Brady Quinn four times last week. Sacks are a good way to balance out giving up a few points…but giving up lots of points shouldn’t be a problem this week for Denver.

Denver faces Oakland and JaMarcus Russell — the same JaMarcus Russell who went 7-24 last week against Kansas City. The Raiders are also without starting guard Robert Gallery, who is injured.

This should be an ugly, low-scoring game between two underrated defenses. Considering the Raiders’ porous QB play and Denver should be a solid start for at least one more week.

Denver D/ST Week 3 projection: 13 points or less given up, 4 sacks, 2 INTs

Other team defense units I like in Week 3: Philadelphia (vs Kansas City); Green Bay (vs St. Louis); Washington (vs Detroit); Baltimore (vs Cleveland)

Sit ‘Em: Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina

Dallas’ defense has been very disappointing so far this year. They have yet to force a fumble or record a sack. And while you might say that they are due, I’d rather not take my chances against an offense that has DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Steve Smith, no matter how much Jake Delhomme has struggled.

Truthfully, I came close to putting Jake Delhomme in the start ‘em column for this week. Dallas’ D is very susceptible to big pass plays, and Delhomme-Smith is still a lethal downfield combo that is searching for its first TD connection of the year. Delhomme played better last week, and has perhaps put his ungodly INT problems behind him.

Either way, you have better options than the Cowboys’ D in what will probably end up being a shootout this coming Monday night.

Dallas D/ST Week 3 projection: 27 or more points given up, 1 sack, 1 INT

Other team defense units I don’t like in Week 3: Buffalo (vs New Orleans); Indianapolis (at Arizona); Arizona (vs Indianapolis); New England (vs Atlanta); Atlanta (at New England)

Can you tell that I think you should take the over in the Indy-Arizona and Atlanta-New England games?

I’m going to try something new this week and let you the readers chime in with some thoughts regarding my start ‘em, sit ‘em predictions. If nothing else, this should give other readers more insight into what the majority opinions are, rather than just my own.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

That’s it for this week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em lineup advice and projections column. As I mentioned above, use the comment section to its full extent. Let’s get some good fantasy tips, Q&A, and discussion going and help everyone get prepared for their Week 3 matchups.

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* – Carson Palmer photo credit: Rick Stewart/Getty Images via DayLife

* – Brent Celek photo credit: 2 Minuted to Midnight Green

Where is this vaunted Packers defense?

For the second straight week, the Green Bay offense was inconsistent. The defense, which bailed the Packers out against Chicago, couldn’t stop the run in their 31-24 loss to Cincinnati Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field.

Bears castoff Cedric Benson looked like a Pro Bowler while gashing the Packers defense for 141 yards on 29 carries. It was pretty clear the Packers still have some issues against the run, and they’re still without first-round pick B.J. Raji, who missed his second straight game with an ankle injury.

The Bengals were also 9-of-14 on third down conversions as the Packers defense even allowed a third-and-34 conversion late in the second quarter.

Instead of punting from its own end zone, Cincinnati then had the ball near midfield. One play later Chad Ochocinco burnt Jarrett Bush for a 44-yard gain. That led to a controversial touchdown for Carson Palmer on a quarterback sneak.

The official who initially signaled for the touchdown had his vision of the play obstructed by Ochocinco. Although replays appeared to show that not only that the ball did not break the plain, but Palmer also fumbled as he raised the ball up over the heap of bodies.

Referee Ed Hochuli called it a touchdown, the first of two crucial mistakes he made. The second came in the game’s waning seconds.

With the Packers trailing 31-24 with 10 seconds remaining, Donald Driver caught his sixth pass over the middle at the Cincinnati 10. The Packers rushed to the line, and the ball was snapped with a second remaining, and before a pair of Bengals were able to get back on their side of the line of scrimmage. A flag was thrown, and the assumption was for offsides.

Instead, Hochuli’s crew ruled that tight end Jermichael Finley was not set and moved early.

Hochuli’s explanation was that time expired before the ball was snapped, which was false, but “even if the ball was snapped before time expired, there was a false start on the play, which requires a 10-second runoff. The game is over.”

The loss overshadowed a stellar performance from Charles Woodson, who picked off Palmer twice, returning one for a touchdown to give Green Bay a 21-14 lead in the second. He also led the team with nine tackles, seemingly being the only defensive player to show up to play.

Backup defensive backs Aaron Rouse and Jarrett Bush were both forced into more playing time because of injuries to starting safeties Atari Bigby and Nick Collins, who left early in the second quarter.

As poorly as the Packers played on defense, the offensive line was worse. Green Bay (1-1) managed just 89 rushing yards – 43 of which came on four Aaron Rodgers scrambles, and Rodgers was sacked six times. Five of those sacks came from Cincinnati defensive end Antwan Odom, who now has seven sacks in two games.

Odom abused the Packers line, especially after tackle Chad Clifton was carted off the field with an ankle injury. Whether he was lined up over Allen Barbre or Daryn Colledge, Odom was in Rodgers’ face the entire game.

Not helping Rodgers were the receivers, who dropped six passes as Rodgers finished 21-of-39 for 261 yards and a three-yard touchdown toss to Driver in the first. Driver led the Packers with six catches for 99 yards, but Greg Jennings was held without a catch.

The Driver score tied the game at 7-7 after the Bengals (1-1) scored on their opening possession. Palmer and Benson easily led them downfield, averaging 10 yards per play before a 5-yard touchdown pass to Laveranues Coles.

Woodson’s first interception set up a four-yard touchdown run from Ryan Grant, who struggled to find holes for the second straight week. He finished with 46 yards on 14 carries, a 3.3-yard average, and a crucial fumble that led to Cincinnati’s go-ahead score in the third.

The Packers special teams also struggled, giving up punt returns of 60 and 32 from rookie Quan Cosby that both led to scores. Mason Crosby also badly missed a 55-yard field goal.

Both teams played sloppy football. Cincinnati was flagged 13 times for 100 yards while the Packers had 11 penalties for 76 yards.

The Packers were a nine-point favorite, but the linemen were flat on both sides of the ball. With the St. Louis Rams and Steven Jackson next on the schedule, if the Packers don’t figure out how to stop the run, they could fall victim to another disappointing upset.

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* – Mike McCarthy photo credit: The Red Zone Report

(And remember to check back this Thursday for the Week 10 Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus for that late playoff push.)

On with the show:

ON FIRE…. Any team Defense that is playing the Oakland Raiders. You can count on that Defense, unless of course it is the Cleveland Browns D, who plays to the level, or lack thereof, of their opponent. Oakland is pathetic at best, and most high school teams could play them and chalk up a “W”.

Tim Hightower, RB-Cardinals ON FIRE. He was my sleeper when I started my posts this year, and has done nothing but continue to gain confidence and carries each week. Remember, Tim Hightower is a rookie, was a 5th round draft pick, and just stole Edgerrin James’ starting job. No, better yet, he ran away with it, literally. Hightower posted a 1 Touchdown, 109-yard day on 22 carries yesterday. Remember, Edgerrin James only had 3 100+ yard games in all of 2007 and it doesn’t look like he will get any in 2008.

Kurt Warner, QB-Cardinals ON FIRE. Everyone had written this guy off years ago. The 37-year old landed in Arizona to serve in the back up role for Matt Leinart. It has not quite gone that way. Kurt Warner again beat out the former first round pick in the pre-season and has not looked back. Warner has a 104.2 QB rating with 2,431 yards and 16 touchdowns. Warner is having an MVP-like season. The Cardinals offense looks fantastic and Kurt Warner is the biggest reason why.

Chris Johnson, RB-Titans ON FIRE. As of late, I had advised everyone to start both Titans running backs, even if you have them both on your team. I still stand by that, as Tennessee stands by being committed to the run. This past week however, Chris Johnson took a step out in front of his partner in crime, LenDale White. Johnson had 24 carries to White’s 8. This 3:1 ratio of carries continued even though White broke off a 54 yard scamper. Both are quality starts, and I still recommend having both on my team, but I was asked before by one of my readers which one I would rather have, and my answer was then and still is Chris Johnson.

Bill Cowher, Former HC now Football Analyst. ON FIRE. Ok, this is a pipe dream for me, but I can hardly stomach another horribly coached Browns game where they give up an enormous lead to a pitiful offense. Romeo is a nice guy and all, but I want FIRE on the Cleveland Browns sideline. Who better to get the Browns over the landslide of losses to the Steelers then the Chin. Remember, the Chin has Cleveland ties, and I don’t remember EVER seeing Pittsburgh blow two touchdown leads. This Browns team is a playoff-caliber team, just like last year; and just like last year, the Browns will not make the playoffs again. I will make this prediction though: this team will win against the Titans if they are still undefeated when they play them. I say this just because the Browns play to the level of their opponents. Oh yeah, it would be an added bonus if Kellen Winslow didn’t play that game. Remember, Browns are 2-0 without Winslow with wins over the at-that-time undefeated Giants, and the Jaguars.

ON ICE… Any player on the following teams, including team defenses, due to their poor offensive play. The Cowboys, Raiders, Seahawks, Rams, and if no Orton, the Bears as well. You can remove a few teams from this list when Steven Jackson and Tony Romo return. The rest appear to be screwed for the duration.

I am not ready to give the Bengals any classification yet, but you have to admit that Cedric Benson looked impressive against the Jags, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting to look more like the Fitzpatrick who produced in St. Louis. With Benson’s performance on Sunday, this shows you how horrible the Bears offense will become if Rex Grossman has to continue to take snaps.

Please check back in on Thursday for this week’s fantasy football focus.

By the way, props to ESPN and it’s fantasy “guru” Eric Karabell (right) for his advice on starting Justin Fargas over Matt Ryan at the offensive flex position. It was in a live chat, so I can’t link out to it to properly take him to task. But I am definitely glad I didn’t listen.

Kurt Fraschetti

profootballinsight@live.com

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[tags]fantasy football, nfl, sports forum[/tags]

Welcome back to the Midwest Sports Fans Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus for NFL Week 8.

In a recap, two weeks ago, I recommended that you pick up and start John Carlson, the tight end from Seattle. All he has done since is score touchdowns, which propelled him to the 11th ranked fantasy tight end. I told you two weeks ago to sit all of your Patriots, and in doing so, the offense was miserable. Last week I told you to start all of your Patriots, and it appeared that Tom Brady was wearing #16 as the Patriots offense did not miss a beat.

The concept of this weekly segment is to help fantasy football owners make educated, tough decisions. I am open to your questions and will provide advice to you via email, or if received early enough, I will post your question on our weekly segment. You can also interact with me via this site by posting a question at the end of this article. Responses have grown each week, and I am encouraged by all of the positive feedback I have received. I do not address the obvious “no-brainers” for who to start in my article, but try to provide insight into deeper issues.

Now, lets get down and dirty with Week 8.

We will open week 8 with a question I was sent yesterday by Robert from Youngstown:

“I picked up Carlson like you said and he was great. I also had Morris last week and wished he played the second half, that would have been huge. I also followed you on selecting Brad Johnson from the Cowboys for my QB as mine was on a bye. He had an awful showing last week, what do you expect this week since I can start two QB’s in my league.”

Robert, thanks for following my articles and I am glad almost everything worked out for you. As for Brad Johnson, I never saw that poor of a performance coming. There was so much uncertainty as to who was going to start last Sunday between Brad Johnson and Tony Romo that I think that was a huge distraction for the entire team. Wade Phillips I don’t believe has a clue of what is going on with his team as it is circling the drain.

Part of me thinks that Jason Garrett is failing on purpose, knowing that when Phillips is fired, it is Garrett’s team. I saw a source reported that Romo will not be playing until mid-November, which should eliminate any controversy as to who the starter is. The Cowboys have to win now, or this will be the worst actual team which appeared to be the best on paper in a really long time. I look for Jason Garrett to cater the offense more to Johnson’s style and abilities which will make Brad Johnson worthy of a start.

Moving on, Deuce McAllister will see additional carries with the loss of Reggie Bush; the question is, how many? I believe that only Deuce McAllister will be able to answer that question. If he produces, Sean Payton will continue to give him the rock. If he is not productive, we will see more of Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker. McAllister has shown flashes of his old self this year, and I anticipate him to be a good start if you are in need at the flex or running back position.

Another running back worthy of a start if in need is the Bengals new starting running back Cedric Benson. As I reported last week, Cedric Benson received the starting nod over previous starter Chris Perry against the Steelers. Benson did not set the world on fire, but did get 62 total yards on 15 touches against a talented Steelers defense. This week should be a walk in the park for him compared to last week as he faces the Texans D this week.

In the past week, a lot of owners were asking me my opinion on defenses. This week is no different. The top fantasy D in the league right now is the Titans. With that said, I do not like the Titans as a start this week for a few reasons. The first is they are playing the Indianapolis Colts. Yes, the Colts have only had one productive offensive game, which came against the leagues best defense, the Ravens. You know that the Colts offense is going to explode again, the question is, on who? Secondly, they are playing on Monday night, which always seems to generate scoring, regardless of who is playing. Defenses I like this week are the Jets, 49ers, Bills, Redskins and Ravens.

As always, thanks for getting your fantasy football insight with me. Post your questions here or you can reach me at profootballinsight@live.com

Kurt Fraschetti

[tags]fantasy football, sleepers, nfl[/tags]

photo credit: 007NASCARCovert
photo credit: Chris Breeze

Straight out of left field, the Bengals Press Box announced that Cedric Benson is listed as the starting running back over Chris Perry.  It should be noted that Perry is active for today’s game.

What an unbelievable turn of events for Perry and the Bengals, who must have seen something in Chris Perry to just release Rudi Johnson.  And then there’s Benson, who could not buy a yard in Chicago. 

I don’t recommend starting Benson or Perry today against a strong Pittsburgh Defense, and a Bengals offense starring Ryan Fitzpatrick at the QB position.  I do however recommend picking up Benson just in case he looks like he did in college, a bonafide workhorse.  Benson is available in 90% of fantasy leagues. 

 

Kurt Fraschetti

profootballinsight@live.com