A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
The first game of the NFL playoffs features two teams who are coming into the playoffs following losses. The Bengals are coming off of a loss to the Ravens that could have eliminated them from the playoffs, while the Texans are losers of three straight following their clinching of the AFC South.
I am skipping an introduction this week because I’m too mad at fantasy football.
In my league of 14 teams, I finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of points…but because I had the third most points scored on me, I missed the playoffs…by a lot.
I finished second to last.
Lame.
Sometimes, fantasy football goes that way. I will spare you my three heart-breaking losses of the year because, quite frankly, we all have them…and nobody else cares.
Week 14 is here.
For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.
For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.
For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.
And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?
Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.
Every year there is a player who emerges late in the season to propel a mediocre team to fantasy football championship around the world…
Hey, remember Jerome Harrison? You probably do if you had him on your fantasy team… I sure as hell do seeing as he single-handedly knocked me out of the playoffs last year.
So maybe you just snuck into the playoffs or you’re a good team who happens to have some brutal match-ups (i.e. Cedric Benson against the Steelers) – well you’re in luck because you have a Choice – crash out the playoffs in a blaze of glory or make the only logical Choice there is – add Tashard.
Well, it all comes down to this.
As I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start ‘em, Sit ‘em post, I currently lead my Week 13 opponent (Brian Bassett of The Jets Blog) 61.22-36.20 in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*.
Before you get too excited for me though, take a look at who he still has left to play: QB Mark Sanchez; RB Shonn Greene; WR Danny Woodhead; TE Dustin Keller; D/ST New York Jets. Basically, if those five players average five points a piece, I’m toast.
What will make a loss burn even more is that the team I needed to lose, PUNTE‘s squad, did in fact lose. A win and I am a single game out of the final playoff spot with one week to play. I’ll have a fighting chance. A loss and I’m done, just playing Week 14 for pride.
Needless to say, I will be watching the Monday night game with great intrigue, hoping for a miracle.
Update: I don’t know how the hell it happened, but I won! Still alive baby!
Remember in the movie Men In Black how they had that little device that could wipe someone’s memory clean? After last week, I wouldn’t mind someone doing that to me.
Though I did a good job answering specific questions with all relevant lineup/league info (as I feel I usually do), Week 9 was certainly less than stellar with respect to the top-line picks.
While I nailed Eli Manning as a start and Seattle’s D as a sit…that was pretty much it. See below. The carnage was ugly.
But you know me. Bad weeks only motivate me more to dig deeper into the numbers and trends. I am committed to making Week 10 a much more accurate week over all…as much for your teams as for my own.
I am watching Neftali Feliz close out the Yankees in Game 3 as I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start em, Sit em post. Right now, this series is through three game, the Rangers have absolutely dominated all but one inning, yet the Yankees find themselves down just a game.
If AJ Burnett can somehow pitch well in Game 4 and the Yankees win, they will find themselves at a very fortuitous 2-2…but 2-2 nonetheless.
Keep this in mind with your fantasy teams.
I have to budget more and more time with each successive week for the Friday injury updates. Through the first two or three weeks, the fantasy-relevant injuries are usually pretty limited. But as the weeks go on, more and more top players start getting dinged up.
So sit back, relax, and strap it down as I go through a few running backs dealing with injuries that could affect their Week 4 performance, then link you to a rundown of every injury that will affect your fantasy football week 4 lineup decisions.
Another week of NFL football is upon us. Are we excited? Amped up? Ready to strap on our chinstrap and run out of the tunnel?
Here are a few games that all NFL fans should keep their eyes on on Sunday.
The Week 17 start em, sit em lineup advice post is up.
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It’s that time of the week again: time for your early look at Week 3 of the 2009 fantasy football season with this week’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em post.
As usual before we begin, it’s accountability time. Let’s see how I did in last week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em post:
Obviously I am proud of my Cutler recommendation when everyone else was telling you to sit him, but there are a few valuable lessons that I was reminded of last week:
All in all, slightly more hits than misses, but still work to be done. I take these recommendations very seriously and want to steer you in the right direction.
I’m mainly trying to get tuned up for the bye weeks, because that’s where start ‘em, sit ‘em advice and sleeper picks really become important. But let’s see if I can build on my Week 2 improvement and have closer to a perfect week in Week 3.
As always, the comment section is yours. Post any lineup or waiver wire question and I’ll answer it as soon as I’m able up until kickoff.
Now onto the start ‘em, sit ‘em picks for Week 3.
Start ‘Em: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills (vs New Orleans)
I was high on Trent Edwards as a sleeper coming into the season and a lot of people laughed at me. Well after two games, who’s laughing now?
Edwards has been solid so far: 221 passing yards per game, 4 TDs, and 1 INT. This week, he gets to go up against a defense that has given up a lot of passing yards this year (288 per game) but also gotten its fair share of turnovers (6 INTs).
Trent Edwards though, unlike Matthew Stafford and Kevin Kolb, will not be making his first career start against the Saints.
We know that New Orleans can and will score, and that the Bills will have to keep pace to have a chance. I already predicted that the Bills will cover the 5.5 point spread at home in this week’s TV schedule and point spreads post, so obviously I think they will do just that.
With Fred Jackson providing a solid rushing complement to Edwards’ sound decision making and outside playmakers (T.O. and Lee Evans), this Buffalo offense has been one of the more underrated units in the NFL through two weeks.
Look for Edwards to get into a bit of a shootout with Drew Brees. He won’t win it — either in real life or fantasy — but he will put up points worthy of a starting spot in most leagues.
Trent Edwards Week 3 projection: 285 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Others I like in Week 3: Philip Rivers (vs Miami); Matt Schaub (vs Jacksonville); Eli Manning (at Tampa Bay); Joe Flacco (vs Cleveland)
Sit ‘Em: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (vs Pittsburgh)
So far in 2009, Carson Palmer has been pretty ho-hum. He threw for 247 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs in Week 1 against Denver, then rebounded somewhat with a 2 TD performance this past Sunday (but with only 185 yards and 2 INTs).
Many people expected Palmer to reassert himself as a top-10 or even top-5 fantasy quarterback this year. So far it hasn’t happened, despite the reemergence of the Bengals’ running game.
This will be Carson Palmer’s first game against the Steelers since December of 2007 after missing most of last year with an injury. And though Troy Polamalu will still not be in the lineup for Pittsburgh — and Jay Cutler had a good day against the Steelers last Sunday — I’d like to see a little more consistency from the Bengals passing game before I throw Palmer out there against such a great defense.
Palmer may have a decent day, and I would not sit Chad Ochocinco, but there are other 2nd-tier QBs that you might also have that I like better, including: Matt Schaub (vs JAX), Aaron Rodgers (vs STL), Eli Manning (at TB), Trent Edwards (vs New Orleans).
Carson Palmer Week 3 projection: 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Others I don’t like in Week 3: Kerry Collins (at New York Jets); Brett Favre (vs San Francisco); Kyle Orton (at Oakland)
Start ‘Em: Steve Slaton, Houston (vs Jackonsville)
There are some easy RB choices this week (look below in Others I Like) but I’m not taking the easy way out. I am a Steve Slaton owner, and others like me are probably wondering whether sitting Slaton is a good idea after watching him rush for 51 yards and not get into the end zone through the season’s first two games.
Start him. I am. And here’s why:
Houston knows they have to run the ball to be successful this year. Last week, they got their passing game going against Tennessee. This week, it will be all about the run. Slaton had tough matchups in Weeks 1 and 2 (Jets, Titans) but should find plenty more room to run this week.
Steve Slaton Week 3 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD, 5 rec, 55 yards receiving
Other RBs — specifically, good ones who have struggled so far in 2009 — I like in Week 3: Steven Jackson (vs Green Bay); Clinton Portis (vs Detroit); Matt Forte (at Seattle)
Sit ‘Em: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (vs Pittsburgh)
Can you tell that I think it’s going to be a tough day for the Bengals at home against Pittsburgh?
Look, I’m a card-carrying member of the I Hate Cedric Benson Club, but even I can’t deny that he has been very good this year. He’s run for 217 yards through two games and has scored a TD. But Pittsburgh has one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses week in and week out, and they have already shut down fantasy studs Chris Johnson and Matt Forte in back-to-back weeks.
Why in the hell would a perennial fantasy stiff like Benson do what those two could not?
You want numbers? Here you go: Last year, Pittsburgh gave up 80.2 yards per game on the ground and allowed only seven rushing TDs all year. This year, they are giving up only 64.5 yards per game and have yet to give up a rushing score. Cedric Benson has a career average of 3.7 yards per carry and has scored a grand total of 13 TDs in 49 games.
No thank you. That was easy.
Cedric Benson Week 3 projection: 41 yards, 0 TDs
Other RBs I don’t like in Week 3: Thomas Jones (vs Tennessee); LenDale White (at New York Jets); Willie Parker (at Cincinnati); Larry Johnson (at Philadelphia)
Start ‘Em: Derrick Mason, Baltimore (vs Cleveland)
Cleveland’s defense has actually not been as bad as you might think. It is the offense that has truly been putrid. The problem is that the offense’s inability to stay in the field has led to tired legs in the second half and big plays for the opposition.
With Hank Poteat looking absolutely incompetent covering the slot, Derrick Mason could have another good game against the Browns. Here are his last four outings against Cleveland, the first two of which were with Joe Flacco at QB last season: 9 rec, 136 yards, TD; 4 rec, 42 yards; 6 rec, 83 yards; 10 rec, 78 yards.
Not too shabby.
Mason is hit or miss in terms of touchdowns, but makes an especially solid play this week in PPR leagues. The Browns will give up a lot of underneath receptions, which is exactly where Mason likes to operate. Plus, Baltimore should get up early and be salting away a win in the second half, which means they probably won’t be going deep too often after the first couple of quarters.
Derrick Mason Week 3 projection: 7 receptions, 87 yards, 1 TD
Other WRs I like in Week 3: Torry Holt (at Houston); Braylon Edwards (at Baltimore); Lee Evans (vs New Orleans); Mario Manningham and Steve Smith (at Tampa Bay); Desean Jackson (vs Kansas City); Johnny Knox (at Seattle)
Sit ‘Em: Donnie Avery, St. Louis (vs Green Bay)
A lot of fantasy owners had high hopes for Donnie Avery on the heels of his breakout rookie campaign during which he caught 53 balls or 674 yards and 3 TDs. Through two games in 2009, however, Avery has only 7 catches for 50 yards.
This week, the Rams play a Green Bay defense that was shredded by the Bengals last week at home. Green Bay’s primary problem on D is their inability to stop the run, but they do have two solid cornerbacks in Charles Woodson and Al Harris that will make life difficult for Avery and Laurent Robinson.
For St. Louis to win on Sunday, Steven Jackson will need to be the first, second, and third options in the offense. I think Avery will see limited targets, especially with Robinson’s emergence (11 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD on the season).
Donnie Avery Week 3 projection: 3 rec, 35 yards, 0 TD
Other WRs I don’t like in Week 3: Nate Washington (at New York Jets); Laveraneus Coles (vs Pittsburgh); Nate Burleson (vs Chicago)
Start ‘Em: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs Kansas City)
I should have listed Brent Celek here last week and taken advantage of his 8 catch, 104-yard performance. Alas, I did not; but I am righting that wrong this week.
Celek has been outstanding so far this year, catching no fewer than six passes through the Eagles’ first two games. Kevin Kolb, the likely starter for this Sunday’s game against Kansas City, clearly likes Celek and will throw the ball his way often.
And guess what? Kansas City sucks, which makes this a really solid matchup for Celek and his owners.
Brent Celek Week 3 projection: 8 rec, 79 yards, 1 TD
Other TEs I like in Week 3: Todd Heap (vs Cleveland); Dustin Keller (vs Tennessee)
Sit ‘Em: Benjamin Watson, New England (vs Atlanta)
I’m afraid fantasy owners are going to overrate Ben Watson for at least the first few weeks of the season. His Week 1 numbers will skew his cumulative totals and make otherwise sensible owners forget that he has caught only 58 passes over the past two seasons.
Watson was tremendous in Week 1, catching six balls for 77 yards and 2 TDs, but that was more of a fluky function of that game’s situation and a specific defense Buffalo had been employing that Tom Brady took advantage of in the waning moments of the game.
I expect Tom Brady to look deep early and often against the Falcons. Watson may catch a few balls, but there are plenty of better options who are probably available, but may not have the gaudy and misleading two week stats that Watson has put up so far.
Ben Watson Week 3 projection: 3 rec, 24 yards, 0 TD
Other TEs I don’t like in Week 3: Zach Miller (vs Denver)
Start ‘Em: Denver Broncos at Oakland
Denver’s D was a much-maligned unit heading the 2009 season, but thus far is the #2 ranked defense in fantasy. Granted, they played the Browns last week to help prop up the numbers, but they also held a pretty potent Cincinnati offense in check the week prior.
What I like about Denver’s D is their ability to pressure the quarterback. Elvis Dumervil alone sacked Brady Quinn four times last week. Sacks are a good way to balance out giving up a few points…but giving up lots of points shouldn’t be a problem this week for Denver.
Denver faces Oakland and JaMarcus Russell — the same JaMarcus Russell who went 7-24 last week against Kansas City. The Raiders are also without starting guard Robert Gallery, who is injured.
This should be an ugly, low-scoring game between two underrated defenses. Considering the Raiders’ porous QB play and Denver should be a solid start for at least one more week.
Denver D/ST Week 3 projection: 13 points or less given up, 4 sacks, 2 INTs
Other team defense units I like in Week 3: Philadelphia (vs Kansas City); Green Bay (vs St. Louis); Washington (vs Detroit); Baltimore (vs Cleveland)
Sit ‘Em: Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina
Dallas’ defense has been very disappointing so far this year. They have yet to force a fumble or record a sack. And while you might say that they are due, I’d rather not take my chances against an offense that has DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Steve Smith, no matter how much Jake Delhomme has struggled.
Truthfully, I came close to putting Jake Delhomme in the start ‘em column for this week. Dallas’ D is very susceptible to big pass plays, and Delhomme-Smith is still a lethal downfield combo that is searching for its first TD connection of the year. Delhomme played better last week, and has perhaps put his ungodly INT problems behind him.
Either way, you have better options than the Cowboys’ D in what will probably end up being a shootout this coming Monday night.
Dallas D/ST Week 3 projection: 27 or more points given up, 1 sack, 1 INT
Other team defense units I don’t like in Week 3: Buffalo (vs New Orleans); Indianapolis (at Arizona); Arizona (vs Indianapolis); New England (vs Atlanta); Atlanta (at New England)
Can you tell that I think you should take the over in the Indy-Arizona and Atlanta-New England games?
I’m going to try something new this week and let you the readers chime in with some thoughts regarding my start ‘em, sit ‘em predictions. If nothing else, this should give other readers more insight into what the majority opinions are, rather than just my own.
Which of Jerod's Week 3 start 'em recommendations do you agree with? (Select all that apply)
- QB Trent Edwards (44%, 308 Votes)
- RB Steve Slaton (36%, 251 Votes)
- WR Derrick Mason (15%, 104 Votes)
- TE Brent Celek (34%, 236 Votes)
- D/ST Denver Broncos (25%, 177 Votes)
Total Voters: 701
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Which of Jerod's Week 3 sit 'em recommendations do you agree with? (Select all that apply)
- QB Carson Palmer (31%, 170 Votes)
- RB Cedric Benson (46%, 250 Votes)
- WR Donnie Avery (43%, 235 Votes)
- TE Ben Watson (28%, 153 Votes)
- D/ST Dallas Cowboys (33%, 178 Votes)
Total Voters: 544
That’s it for this week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em lineup advice and projections column. As I mentioned above, use the comment section to its full extent. Let’s get some good fantasy tips, Q&A, and discussion going and help everyone get prepared for their Week 3 matchups.
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* – Carson Palmer photo credit: Rick Stewart/Getty Images via DayLife
* – Brent Celek photo credit: 2 Minuted to Midnight Green
Where did the high-powered offense go?
Where is this vaunted Packers defense?
For the second straight week, the Green Bay offense was inconsistent. The defense, which bailed the Packers out against Chicago, couldn’t stop the run in their 31-24 loss to Cincinnati Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field.
Bears castoff Cedric Benson looked like a Pro Bowler while gashing the Packers defense for 141 yards on 29 carries. It was pretty clear the Packers still have some issues against the run, and they’re still without first-round pick B.J. Raji, who missed his second straight game with an ankle injury.
The Bengals were also 9-of-14 on third down conversions as the Packers defense even allowed a third-and-34 conversion late in the second quarter.
Instead of punting from its own end zone, Cincinnati then had the ball near midfield. One play later Chad Ochocinco burnt Jarrett Bush for a 44-yard gain. That led to a controversial touchdown for Carson Palmer on a quarterback sneak.
The official who initially signaled for the touchdown had his vision of the play obstructed by Ochocinco. Although replays appeared to show that not only that the ball did not break the plain, but Palmer also fumbled as he raised the ball up over the heap of bodies.
Referee Ed Hochuli called it a touchdown, the first of two crucial mistakes he made. The second came in the game’s waning seconds.
With the Packers trailing 31-24 with 10 seconds remaining, Donald Driver caught his sixth pass over the middle at the Cincinnati 10. The Packers rushed to the line, and the ball was snapped with a second remaining, and before a pair of Bengals were able to get back on their side of the line of scrimmage. A flag was thrown, and the assumption was for offsides.
Instead, Hochuli’s crew ruled that tight end Jermichael Finley was not set and moved early.
Hochuli’s explanation was that time expired before the ball was snapped, which was false, but “even if the ball was snapped before time expired, there was a false start on the play, which requires a 10-second runoff. The game is over.”
The loss overshadowed a stellar performance from Charles Woodson, who picked off Palmer twice, returning one for a touchdown to give Green Bay a 21-14 lead in the second. He also led the team with nine tackles, seemingly being the only defensive player to show up to play.
Backup defensive backs Aaron Rouse and Jarrett Bush were both forced into more playing time because of injuries to starting safeties Atari Bigby and Nick Collins, who left early in the second quarter.
As poorly as the Packers played on defense, the offensive line was worse. Green Bay (1-1) managed just 89 rushing yards – 43 of which came on four Aaron Rodgers scrambles, and Rodgers was sacked six times. Five of those sacks came from Cincinnati defensive end Antwan Odom, who now has seven sacks in two games.
Odom abused the Packers line, especially after tackle Chad Clifton was carted off the field with an ankle injury. Whether he was lined up over Allen Barbre or Daryn Colledge, Odom was in Rodgers’ face the entire game.
Not helping Rodgers were the receivers, who dropped six passes as Rodgers finished 21-of-39 for 261 yards and a three-yard touchdown toss to Driver in the first. Driver led the Packers with six catches for 99 yards, but Greg Jennings was held without a catch.
The Driver score tied the game at 7-7 after the Bengals (1-1) scored on their opening possession. Palmer and Benson easily led them downfield, averaging 10 yards per play before a 5-yard touchdown pass to Laveranues Coles.
Woodson’s first interception set up a four-yard touchdown run from Ryan Grant, who struggled to find holes for the second straight week. He finished with 46 yards on 14 carries, a 3.3-yard average, and a crucial fumble that led to Cincinnati’s go-ahead score in the third.
The Packers special teams also struggled, giving up punt returns of 60 and 32 from rookie Quan Cosby that both led to scores. Mason Crosby also badly missed a 55-yard field goal.
Both teams played sloppy football. Cincinnati was flagged 13 times for 100 yards while the Packers had 11 penalties for 76 yards.
The Packers were a nine-point favorite, but the linemen were flat on both sides of the ball. With the St. Louis Rams and Steven Jackson next on the schedule, if the Packers don’t figure out how to stop the run, they could fall victim to another disappointing upset.
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* – Mike McCarthy photo credit: The Red Zone Report
Week 9 has come and gone, with only the Monday nighter left to play, and now we will focus on Week 10 of this 2008 NFL campaign. I have a lot to cover, so lets get to it.
(And remember to check back this Thursday for the Week 10 Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus for that late playoff push.)
On with the show:
ON FIRE…. Any team Defense that is playing the Oakland Raiders. You can count on that Defense, unless of course it is the Cleveland Browns D, who plays to the level, or lack thereof, of their opponent. Oakland is pathetic at best, and most high school teams could play them and chalk up a “W”.
Welcome back to the Midwest Sports Fans Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus for NFL Week 8.
In a recap, two weeks ago, I recommended that you pick up and start John Carlson, the tight end from Seattle. All he has done since is score touchdowns, which propelled him to the 11th ranked fantasy tight end. I told you two weeks ago to sit all of your Patriots, and in doing so, the offense was miserable. Last week I told you to start all of your Patriots, and it appeared that Tom Brady was wearing #16 as the Patriots offense did not miss a beat.
The concept of this weekly segment is to help fantasy football owners make educated, tough decisions. I am open to your questions and will provide advice to you via email, or if received early enough, I will post your question on our weekly segment. You can also interact with me via this site by posting a question at the end of this article. Responses have grown each week, and I am encouraged by all of the positive feedback I have received. I do not address the obvious “no-brainers” for who to start in my article, but try to provide insight into deeper issues.
Now, lets get down and dirty with Week 8.
photo credit: 007NASCARCovert
photo credit: Chris Breeze
Straight out of left field, the Bengals Press Box announced that Cedric Benson is listed as the starting running back over Chris Perry. It should be noted that Perry is active for today’s game.
What an unbelievable turn of events for Perry and the Bengals, who must have seen something in Chris Perry to just release Rudi Johnson. And then there’s Benson, who could not buy a yard in Chicago.Â
I don’t recommend starting Benson or Perry today against a strong Pittsburgh Defense, and a Bengals offense starring Ryan Fitzpatrick at the QB position. I do however recommend picking up Benson just in case he looks like he did in college, a bonafide workhorse. Benson is available in 90% of fantasy leagues.Â
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Kurt Fraschetti
