One, you are in your league’s championship round and looking for some advice as you try to make the most important lineup decisions of the season. We congratulate you, and we’re here for you. Skip ahead and start soaking in the analysis as you go for your league’s equivalent of The Shiva.

Two, you are in your league’s semifinal round, which means that you play your championship in Week 17. We’re still happy to help you make lineup decisions, but just know that we vehemently disagree with how your league is setup and blame you personally for going along with it.

Or three, you are devastated after a bad beat in Week 15 and engaging in the masochistic act of still reading fantasy football analysis even though you have nothing left to play for. This is pathetic and you should should be ashamed of yourself. Get over it man (or woman). Still though, we feel your pain. We’ve been there. So we welcome your wandering eyes as well.

I suppose you could also be in some kind of keeper league that uses the consolation bracket to help determine next year’s draft order (something we do highly encourage as a great idea) or a league in which money is doled out for third place (a less great idea). Either way, we group you with the first set of folks who still need advice even in Week 16.

Okay, onto this week’s Start/Sit picks…for anyone and everyone who may have stumbled upon this post today.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB – Matt Moore

Matt Moor-ino has been very solid the past seven games for which he’s been healthy, putting up at least 13 points in six of them. He’s not at all a high-profile name, but if you don’t have a top 12 QB, or Tim Tebow, I would look at giving Moore the nod in Week 16.

His best WR, Brandon Marshall, has been a TD-machine as of late, and they will also be playing the porous New England passing defense.

If you don’t have another option, look at Moore. You might even be able to pick him up off of the waiver wire.

Matt Moore fantasy football Week 16 projection: 285 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 yards rushing

Other Start Em QBs:

• Tim Tebow – On the road in Buffalo…depending on weather…he may RUSH for 100 yards…and throw in a few TDs as well.
• Mike Vick and Tony Romo – Let’s just say, I don’t think there will be a lot of great defense in this game on Saturday.

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hopefully, you got off of the Fitzpatrick bandwagon in week six…but he is still the #12 ranked fantasy QB and presents a LITTLE value from week to week based on matchups.

Not this week.

The Denver defense is incredibly over-rated (They are ranked 22nd overall, Tebow-haters. That’s a fact. Don’t try to argue against it.), but they have been much better against mediocre offenses. Fitzpatrick should have plenty of trouble against Denver’s speedy linebackers. Most of Buffalo’s offense has come on the ground lately, anyways…don’t expect that to change in week 16.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 16 projection: 225 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit Em QBs:

• Andy Dalton – This is not your “beginning-of-the-year-Cardinals-secondary” (stats forthcoming).
• Carson Palmer – We should all just sit him out of principle at this point, don’t you think?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em RB – CJ Spiller

Spiller has had GREAT days two of the last three weeks, including his monstrous 28-point performance last week. If the weather is bad in Buffalo this weekend, look for Spiller to have another breakout.

On wet/slippery/cold fields, the offense ALWAYS has the advantage – especially shifty playmakers like CJ Spiller.

CJ Spiller fantasy football Week 16 projection: 75 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter – Look for Hunter (who has looked absolutely AWESOME at times) to carry a little larger load down the stretch run of the season as Jim Harbaugh tries to keep Frank Gore fresh for the post-season.
• DeAngelo Williams – Favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, and plus, doesn’t he seem to KILL everybody in the fantasy playoffs like every single year?

Sit Em RB – Marshawn Lynch

Man. What a tough one. I absolutely LOVE Beast Mode. He’s been an absolute fantasy stud the past several weeks. This brings us to the age-old quandary, “Do you play the stud, or do you sit him because of the matchup?”

98% of the time, I would say you should always play the stud. But this year’s San Francisco run defense is FAR from ordinary. Through 14 weeks games, they have not allowed one single rushing touchdown all year!

It’s possible you have NO other options at RB and are forced to start Lynch, but if you have 2 or 3 other guys you like, don’t hesitate to sit Lynch against one of the best run defenses ever – that’s not hyperbole.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 16 projection: 60 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em RBs:

• Mike Tolbert – I think Mathews gets most of the touches this week.
• Ryan Grant – The Bears’ defense is great, and they will keep Grant blocked in all day.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR – Plaxico Burress

A complete hunch…but I think this is one of those weeks where he has like 4 catches for 28 yards…and TWO touchdowns.

He’s been pretty quiet lately, and the Giants will definitely be focusing on stopping the Jets’ running game. I think the Jets will counter by trying to give Sanchez some easier throws…and as bad as he is at times, Sanchez can throw that fade on the sideline very well. Look for Plax to get several looks in the red zone this week.

Plaxico Burress fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 28 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start Em WRs:

• DeSean Jackson, Laurent Robinson, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant – Yes, I’m predicting at least 10 points for ALL of these WRs this week.
• DeMariyus Thomas – He’s actually the #1 WR in fantasy over the last three weeks. Tebow loves him, and he should have another good day in Buffalo this week.
• Victor Cruz – Read below.

Sit Em WR – Hakeem Nicks

Darrelle Revis is an awesome CB…but he’s slightly less awesome when he has to move inside and cover the slot WR. I expect Revis to stay outside and try to shut down the Giants’ deep threat this week. Victor Cruz will be the primary beneficiary as Eli will have to check down to him constantly.

Nicks MIGHT get free on one or two deep balls, but if he doesn’t (or if he drops them when perfectly thrown, like he did last week), he will be a fantasy disappointment in Week 16.

Hakeem Nicks fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em WRs:

• Brandon Lloyd – Against Pittsburgh AND he’s banged up AND the Rams have QB issues.
• Reggie Wayne – I’m finally turning on him…he’s just nothing without Peyton Manning. It’s a good thing it took me sixteen weeks…

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End – Greg Olsen

Cam LOVES his tight ends in the red zone, and look for Olsen to be the recipient this week.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em Tight End – Owen Daniels

The big fella is banged up, and I expect Houston to pull him as soon as they can tonight against the Colts. If they get up big, look for all of Houston’s studs to sit.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 16 projection: 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em Defense – ARIZONA CARDINALS

This is my game-changing pick of the week.

Did you know that the Cardinals defense has been improving all year, and that in the last seven weeks, they have only allowed EIGHT touchdowns.

I’ll let you guess where that ranks, league-wide.

Anyway, they will be playing a good Cincinnati team, but a team whose offense is definitely not “lights out” by any means.

If you don’t have one of the top three defenses, go ahead and swoop up the Arizona defense…to the surprise of everyone. And then dominate them this week to win your league.

Sit Em Defense – Detroit

All flash, no substance…especially against a rejuvenated San Diego offense. I would stay away from BOTH defenses in this game.

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Best of luck in Week 16 everyone! We’ll be here all week answering questions in the comment section, and we will have our weekly live chat on Saturday this week. We’ll see you then!

The playoffs are dead ahead.  Now, more than ever, it is vital that you start the right guys.

We already advised you on the waiver wire. We’ve already outlined who you should start and sit on Thanksgiving. We’ve also told you about a fun Thanksgiving-only fantasy challenge.

Heck, we’ve even outlined the complete history of Thanksgiving Day football for you.

Now it’s time to look at the rest of Week 12.

Quick Piece of Advice

There is no room left for excuses.  At this point in the season, we have ALL dealt with injuries.  We have ALL battled through our bye weeks.  We have ALL left points on the table.

If I could give you one piece of advice before the stretch run, it would be something I have emphasized all year.  Listen to expert advice…but trust your gut first.

Again, none of us have the time to really study fantasy football full time.  It is impossible (well, for those of us who have real jobs) to completely keep track of every single player, every matchup, every injury, and every game.  If you don’t have a good read on a player or a matchup, you should definitely consult “the experts.”

However, so much of fantasy football comes back to gut feelings.

If you have a gut feeling that Danny Woodhead is going to run all over Philadelphia this week, and that gut is based on some stats or game play that you have actually seen, go for it!  Even if the expert disagrees, I would rather go down on my own terms.  Believe me, you will hate yourself if Woodhead goes off and you started Chris Johnson just because that’s what the expert said.

If you are ambivalent and have no opinion, seek counsel…but don’t be afraid to trust your gut on the tough calls.

If you haven’t read Jerod’s post focusing on fantasy players in tomorrow’s Thanksgiving Day games, you must.  Use both articles for a little more detailed information in week 12.

Last Week’s Picks: 17 for 22 (80 %)

• Hits: Tim Tebow, Matt Moore, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Beanie Wells, KC Running Backs, Laurent Robinson, Mike Williams, Eric Decker, Dwayne Bowe, Jermichael Finley, Jax defense, Cle defense, SD defense.
• Misses:  Cam Newton, Kendall Hunter, Michael Bush, Mario Manningham, Greg Olsen

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 12: QB

Start Em QB: Josh Freeman

I know everyone is heartbroken that I’m not talking about Tebow this week.  I’m sure you will have a hard time finding a single article on him now…

If you DON’T start Matt Moore (whom I and Jerod both like this week), look closely at Bill Simmons’ ex-boyfriend, Josh Freeman.

He’s had a very “disappointing” season this year…and is still ranked 15th overall among fantasy QB’s.  He has a pretty nice matchup against Tennessee this week, who is in the bottom half of the league in every single passing category defensively.  Also, he and Mike Williams appeared to finally get on the same page last week.

Don’t be surprised to see Josh Freeman have a big week for the Bucs.

Josh Freeman Fantasy Projections for Week 12: 290 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Matt Moore – Great matchup against a Dallas secondary that is overrated AND banged up.
• Both QB’s in the Detroit/GB game – For obvious reasons.
• Cam Newton – Against the Colts…Yikes.

Sit Em QB: Tim Tebow

I still think he’s a winner, and I think he has a real shot to succeed in the league for a long time.  However, I don’t really like the matchup this week.

As good as Denver’s defense has been, it only takes two shots from Rivers for San Diego to get a lead.  If Denver does indeed have to play from behind, and Tebow is forced to become a drop back, pocket passer, that will be bad news for Denver and Tebow owners.

The good news about Tebow is that I actually think he’s a pretty low risk prospect from week to week.  Provided he doesn’t throw any interceptions (which he’s been great at so far in his career), he is a lock for at least 50 rushing yards and a TD.  You will probably get at least 10-15 points from him every week – including this week.

Unfortunately for him and his owners, I think there are a lot of QB’s with favorable matchups in Week 12, making Tebow a guy you should consider sitting.

Tim Tebow Week 12 Fantasy Projection: 130 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; 60 rushing yards and 1 TD.

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Carson Palmer – The Bears’ defense is good…and they will be playing with extra fire this week while trying to lift up their Cutler-less team.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick – He’s slumping…and an angry Jets’ defense is not really your ideal opponent to try and get out of a slump against.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I can’t quibble here. I also like Josh Freeman this week and am starting him over Ryan Fitzpatrick in a league where I have both. (Fitzpatrick, by the way, is pretty close to droppable now. Amazing how quickly things can change huh?)

Another I guy I like, for some unknown reason, is Sam Bradford. I know, I know…I’m being way too stubborn about him this year. But the guy still has talent, he finally has a receiver to make plays for him (Brandon Lloyd), and the Rams face a Cardinals secondary that simply is not very good. If he can’t produce solid numbers this week, I’ll give up on him. But until then…

I do, however, like Carson Palmer. While I agree that the Bears’ D will be fired up, the way you attack them is through the air, and Palmer has one of the highest yard per attempt averages in the league since taking over.

Oh, and anyone who doesn’t play Cam Newton this week is a damn fool.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 12: RBs

Start Em RB: DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart

Something must have been in the water this summer for all of the running backs that signed huge contract extensions (minus Adrian Peterson of course…that guy is just a machine).  However, Williams has definitely shown a burst as of late, and an awful Indianapolis defense should be fantastic for him and his owners.

As for Jonathan Stewart, don’t be scared about the fact that he will be splitting carries with Williams.  The Panthers have two very distinct roles for both players.  Stewart has turned into Newton’s go-to threat out of the backfield.  I expect both players to put up double-digit points in Week 12.

Combined Stats for Williams and Stewart in Week 12: 180 rushing yards, 1 TD; 140 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Twelve:

• Roy Helu – I hate Mike Shanahan too…but I think Helu will have a good week against Seattle
• Chris Johnson – I have a weird feeling he’s finally going to have a big play or two this week.

Sit Em RB: Mike Tolbert

The best way to beat Denver’s defense is NOT on the ground.  Just ask Shonn Greene owners.

I think the Chargers will have a lot of success in the air though in week 12, and while Tolbert remains a constant threat to punch one into the end zone, if he doesn’t come through with a TD, you will be looking at a very poor day for the Human Bowling Ball.

Mike Tolbert Week 12 Projection: 30 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Twelve:

• Brandon Jacobs – He’s washed up.
• Kansas City Running Backs – No passing game whatsoever…and they are playing Pittsburgh.  Ugh.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I think it’s safe to say that all players going up against the Colts are solid plays every week. So I agree on the frustrating DAW and JStew.

I cannot, however, agree on Helu. Not only is the diabolical Mike Shanahan his coach, but Washington faces Seattle in Seattle, and the Seahawks have quietly built one of the league’s best defenses, especially against the run.

Chris Johnson? Good luck with that. He may well go off this week, but he’ll be doing it from my bench; and I won’t feel the least bit regretful about it. He deserves to ride the pine, and until he gives me reason to trust him I am not entrusting one of two valuable starting RB slots on his worthlessness.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 12: WRs

Start Em WR: Mario Manningham

Manningham was nowhere to be found on Sunday night…and the Giants paid for it.

Look for Eli to target the speedster from Michigan much more than twice this week against New Orleans.  Super Mario has been very hit or miss this year, but I think he responds to the goose egg he put up last week by putting up some of his best numbers of the year.

Mario Manningham fantasy football Week 12 projection: 7 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Twelve:

• Laurent Robinson – It seems like Romo picks a new random dude every year to become his go-to guy halfway through the season. As long as Miles Austin is out, expect Robinson to put up some good numbers. (Yes, I copied this from last week…I still feel the same way.)
• Percy Harvin – The dude is just really good…we forget about him because his QB play the last two years has been atrocious.  However, he’s always a threat on special teams, and he has a pretty favorable matchup against a soft Atlanta secondary in Week 12.
• Pierre Garcon – Carolina is terrible…surely SOMEBODY from Indy has to have a good week…right?  No?  They Don’t?  Let’s just move on…

Sit Em WR: Anquan Boldin

I will allow Jerod to briefly tell us about how awesome San Francisco’s defense is…

Anquan Boldin fantasy football Week 12 projection: 3 catches for 45 yards

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week Twelve:

• Bears’ Wide Receivers – While Devin Hester should ALWAYS at least be considered, I don’t like anyone else on Chicago this week.  Cutler has been making magic out of nothing for four weeks now…I just don’t think Caleb Hannie will be able to replicate what he has done at all.

Jerod’s thoughts:

You know, after finishing my Thanksgiving start/sit rundown, I thought about going back and adding Anquan Boldin to the sit list. He only has three catches over the last two weeks, and you’re right: San Francisco’s defense is punishing. I do like Torrey Smith, as he’s become the #1 guy in their passing game, but I think it’s perfectly find to sit Boldin, even though I do think he gets 4-5 catches this week. (Because you can’t – can’t – run on the Niners.)

I love all Giants receivers against New Orleans, and you’re right about Harvin. He’s underrated, but Christian Ponder is proving his intelligence by making sure Harvin gets the ball. With AD out this week, look for that to happen ever more.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 12: TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow

Again, Tennessee is very mediocre against the pass, and Winslow should benefit from their soft secondary.  Look for a healthy Winslow to have at least 6 catches and a TD.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 10 projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em TE: Jermichael Finley

I expect him to drop back into pass protection more this week in order to help out against Suh and co.  Even if he doesn’t, he’s way too inconsistent for my liking.

Be careful with starting Finley against Detroit on Thanksgiving Day

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

Can’t quibble here either. I like Winslow this week, and I already made my feelings known about Finley. He always has two-TD potential because he’s loaded with talent, but neither the targets nor the consistency has been there.

Another guy who is sliding down a bit is Fred Davis. He has not been able to maintain his early season production and probably isn’t a must-start anymore. See if Greg Olsen is out there on your waiver wires. I’ve picked him up in a number of leagues over the last couple of weeks, and that Colts matchup sure is inviting.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 12: D/ST

Start Em Defense: Chicago

An angry Bears defense ready to show the world they can survive without Jay Cutler for a few weeks matched up against Carson Palmer.  Just think about it.

Sit Em Defense: Denver

I have been very impressed by them in recent weeks.  However, they also have played against Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, and Carson Palmer.  Be wary with them against a division rival that knows them well.

Jerod’s Thoughts:

Chicago’s D is a great choice, and they always provide the special teams upside that is nice. As for Denver, I don’t mind them either. Tim Tebow doesn’t turn the ball over to give opposing offenses short fields or easy scoring chances, and even if Denver does give up some points they get sacks with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

Other defenses to keep your eyes on this week: Atlanta, which faces Christian Ponder, Toby Gerhart, and the Vikings at home; the Jets, which gets to face the now-bumbling Bills at home; and Seattle, which faces Sexy Rexy and this guy…whatever the hell he does on the sidelines.

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The Week 12 Start/Sit picks are in the books. But of course, this is only the beginning. Now the real fun begins in the comment section, so load it up with lineup-specific questions and we’ll get to them throughout the week, culminating with our marathon Sunday morning start/sit live chat (bookmark this link, which will be updated Sunday morning), which will go off at 11:00 ET and run all the way up until kickoff.

And don’t forget about our friends at Daily Joust. They are hosting a Thanksgiving Day Turkey Shootout that uses only players playing on Thanksgiving Day in the player pool, has a $5 entry free, and $300 guaranteed prize pool. Plus, not only is it a Super Joust Qualifier, but you can submit multiple entries.

Good luck in Week 12 everybody! We’ll see you in the comments.

As the final seconds ticked off the clock in Philly, I stuck a fork in the season of my beloved Eagles; but at least I still have hope for the remainder of the season from a fantasy perspective. So no matter where your favorite team rates on the bed-crapping spectrum, the remaining seven weeks of the season still have a chance to bring you some joy.

For reasons unbeknownst to me, there are four teams on bye next week despite the fact that no teams were off this week. Obviously this merciful lack of a game is too little, too late for Colts fans, but the fact that Houston, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh are on bye has a pretty big impact on the fantasy landscape.

Before I dive into this week’s potential waiver wire adds, I wanted to thank Jerod for filling in for me last week. I was actually out in Arizona, so as punishment, I was forced to watch the Cardinals-Rams game.

As always, players listed here are owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups: QB

Carson Palmer (36%), Oakland

After torching the Chargers, Palmer is now averaging over 300 yards passing with five scores over this first two starts of the season.  Defenses have to account for the Oakland running game no matter who is in the backfield, which should leave opportunities for Palmer to go downfield.

Adding to his allure is a Week 11 matchup with Minnesota who has allowed eight TD passes in three games leading into Monday night’s affair with Aaron Rodgers. Their secondary may still have their heads spinning from that one by Sunday.

Christian Ponder (15%), Minnesota

Staying in that same game, Oakland’s pass defense has been pretty inept in its own right. They have allowed multiple TDs to opposing quarterbacks in seven of their last eight games. Ponder has acquitted himself fairly well in his first couple games, making him a potential fill-in if you’re desperate.

John Skelton (2%), Arizona

Speaking of desperation, there are a number of intriguing matchup plays at QB like Alex Smith against Arizona or Tarvaris Jackson against the Rams. And while Skelton has an arguably worse matchup against the 49ers, he’s coming off of a big game with 315 yards and three scores versus the Eagles.

The Cardinals will almost certainly be playing from behind, which should mean ample attempts for Skelton.  This is obviously predicated on the fact the team realizes he actually gives them a better chance to win than Kevin Kolb, but you’d be hard-pressed to argue the offense hasn’t been more efficient with him at the helm.

Again, he’s likely an emergency starter at best outside of deep leagues, but I liked what I saw on Sunday.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups: RB

Maurice Morris (30%), Detroit

There isn’t a ton to like here, but Morris has a couple things working in his favor. First, the Lions play Carolina next week, and the Panthers are among the worst defenses against opposing fantasy running backs. Second, with Matthew Stafford’s finger ailing, the team would be well served to mix a few more runs into the game plan.

That said, it’s hard to recommend Morris as much more than a flex option at this point. If you want to really roll the dice, Kevin Smith is back in the mix for the Lions and had six touches in his first game on Sunday.

Dexter McCluster (27%), Kansas City

McCluster tied a season high with 14 touches against the Broncos, as he rushed for 45 yards on eight carries and caught six balls for 48 yards. You can’t question his explosiveness, but the upcoming schedule features some tough defenses. Still, his involvement in the passing game makes him a potential flex option in PPR leagues.  Just don’t expect a ton of consistency from the second-year back.

Chris Ogbonnaya (25%), Cleveland

After an abysmal showing in his first start last week, Ogbonnaya tallied 109 total yards on Sunday, albeit against the Rams. The matchup against the Jaguars in Week 11 is a tough one, but he should get 20 touches with Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty both potentially out again.

Kendall Hunter (18%), San Francisco

With Frank Gore sitting out most of the second half, Hunter was once again the feature back for the 49ers. He finished with six carries for 40 yards and a score to go with one reception for four yards.  The matchup with Arizona next week is a decent one, and given the typical 49ers game plan, Hunter would get close to 20 touches if Gore has to sit out.

There are a number of favorable matchups remaining on San Francisco’s schedule, and Gore isn’t getting any younger. Consequently, Hunter is likely to see his role and fantasy value expand down the stretch.

Lance Ball (5%), Denver

After Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno both went down, Ball stepped in and carried the ball 30 times for 96 yards.  With Denver’s run-pass mix on the level of Army or Navy, whoever the primary ball carrier is there has solid fantasy value. Moreno is definitely out, while McGahee’s status is a bit less certain, but Ball is worth a pre-emptive add at the very least.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups: WR

Laurent Robinson (48%), Dallas

Robinson now has four touchdowns over the past three weeks, and with Miles Austin still nursing a hamstring injury, he will once again be a starter. The Redskins have been pretty effective at limiting opposing wideouts, but the Dallas passing game is hitting on all cylinders heading into that matchup.

Greg Little (14%), Cleveland

After a three-week stretch where he didn’t even break 33 yards, Little caught six passes for 84 yards against the Rams. This might tempt you to pick him up, but the Jags have been tough against opposing wide receivers. It’s not as if the Browns are some kind of offensive juggernaut anyway, so even though the athletic ability is there, consistency won’t be.

Vincent Brown (7%), San Diego

The rookie wideout how has at least 79 yards receiving in two straight weeks, and he nearly missed a second touchdown on Thursday night.  Brown’s value largely hinges on the health of Malcom Floyd, but early indications are that Floyd will be out again this week.

Damian Williams (5%), Tennessee

After his 107-yard, one TD performance against Carolina, Williams now has a TD or 60 yards receiving in five of his last six games.  He seems to have a decent rapport with Matt Hasselbeck, and the Titans have a few favorable matchups remaining. Williams won’t ever be confused for an every week starter, but he’s worth owning as a reasonably reliable bench option.

Harry Douglas (3%), Atlanta

Julio Jones re-aggravated his hamstring injury, which opened the door for Douglas to have a huge game. He was targeted 14 times and finished with eight receptions for 133 yards. Given his performance and target numbers from games where Atlanta’s top receiving options were all healthy, he’s a decent fill-in option if Jones misses time, but that’s about it.

Leonard Hankerson (1%), Washington

With eight receptions for 106 yards on nine targets, Hankerson had a breakout performance for the Redskins on Sunday.  Unfortunately it was cut short by a hip injury, which he downplayed after the game. Washington’s search continues for an effective quarterback, but they may have found something at WR in Hankerson, who is a decent PPR league option going forward.

Update: Scratch Hankerson. After his breakout day he was placed on IR because of a torn labrum.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups: TE

Ed Dickson (12%), Baltimore

After 10 catches, 79 yards, and two touchdowns, Dickson is sure to be a trendy pickup this week.  Part of that can be attributed to Baltimore taking what the defense gave them, but Dickson has plenty of talent for a team that seems hell bent on a pass-heavy game plan. This week’s matchup against Cincinnati is tough, but he’s a decent bye week fill-in for this week and a backup going forward.

Jacob Tamme (2%), Indianapolis

The Colts haven’t officially ruled Dallas Clark out for the season, but there is no motivation for them to rush to get him back on the field either. Tamme filled in admirably for Clark last season and hauled in six receptions for 75 yards against the Jaguars on Sunday. Obviously the quarterback situation is nowhere near what it was last season, but that doesn’t mean he has absolutely no value.

With the Colts on bye this week, there’s no need to rush to pick him up, but keep him on your radar, particularly in PPR leagues.

Streaming Defense(s) of the Week

Jacksonville (15%) at Cleveland (10%)

This category got a little tougher with the Colts off, but both of these offensively inept teams have scored over 17 points just once this season. Expect an ugly, low-scoring game in Cleveland between these two.

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Have any questions or feedback?  Leave them in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter (@andybottoms).

Update: Our Week 10 start em, sit em advice is posted, and this week’s post includes an opportunity for one MSF reader to win free NFL tickets. Make sure you check it out after you finish going through the waiver pickups.

There are no teams on bye in Week 10, but don’t let that lull you into a false sense of security.

The Texans, Colts, Saints, and Steelers are all on bye in Week 11, which means a lot of fantasy firepower will be sitting on benches during one of the final weekends of playoff positioning.

Don’t get caught snoozing; take this opportunity not just to improve your lineup for Week 10 but also to plan ahead for any lineup vacancies impending next week.

Andy is out this week, which means that I’m manning the ship for this week’s waiver wire advice and pickups. As always, every player listed here is owned in 50% or fewer of Yahoo leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups: Quarterback

Matt Cassel, Kansas City (45%)

You never really know what you’re going to get with Matt Cassel. He will sometimes put up decent numbers in a game you don’t expect him too, and sometimes he’ll piss away good matchups with bad outings…like he just did in Week 9 against Miami.

Cassel’s Week 10 matchup against Denver should be a good one for he and the KC offense, and his Week 11 matchup against New England on Monday night definitely is based on the numbers. I’ll let you decide whether you trust Cassel enough to play him in either. (After what I saw this week, I’d have to be desperate to do so.)

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati (36%)

I don’t particularly like Andy Dalton this week against Pittsburgh, for obvious reasons, and he has Baltimore the next week and then Pittsburgh again two weeks later, but it’s hard to ignore Dalton after a 3 TD, 0 INT game against Tennessee.

Also, know this: despite the four games remaining against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, Dalton and the Bengals face St. Louis and Arizona during weeks 15 and 16 – the fantasy playoffs for most leagues. That’s promising, and it could be worth stashing the young Dalton for.

Colt McCoy, Cleveland (35%)

McCoy and the Browns offense are nothing to get excited about, but even the worst offenses can sometimes put up serviceable fantasy numbers against equally poor defenses. With the Browns schedule to face St. Louis this week, McCoy could have some value if you’re desperate or in a two-QB league.

Carson Palmer, Oakland (28%)

Palmer and the Raiders face the Chargers on Thursday night. I hate having players play in Thursday night games, and Palmer still worries me considering this is like the equivalent of his third preseason game, but the Chargers can be thrown on, so Palmer is at least worth thinking about.

Christian Ponder, Minnesota (16%)

The young Ponder has already had one decent fantasy day against the Packers (219 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs in Week 7), and it’s safe to assume that he’s going to continue to improve. He won’t be in the friendly confines on his home dome this time around, but the Packers’ suspect pass D and the probability of Rodgers and Co putting up big points makes Ponder a not-terrible option.

Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville (4%)

I didn’t really want to list Gabbert here, but the fact that he’s available for almost everyone (I want to know what leagues he’s actually owned in!) and facing the Colts in Week 10 makes him at least worth mentioning. Understand that Gabbert is only an option if you’re desperate or in a three-QB league, but if he’s going to do anything productive this season it will be against the Colts.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups: Running Back

Maurice Morris, Detroit (29%)

As long as Jahvid Best is out, Morris is going to have value because of the strength of the Detroit offense. With no clear line of sight on when Best might return, performances like Morris’ in Week 8 could because the norm: 65 total yards and a touchdown. In Week 7, Morris had 63 total yards but didn’t score. That seems about right; 65 or so yards and a TD every other week. That’s certainly worth owning, especially if you count on any of the backs who will be on by in Week 11.

Roy Helu, Washington (27%)

The moment we’ve all been waiting for finally happened: Helu became the guy for Mike Shanahan and the Redskins. Though he was only able to muster 41 yards on the ground in a tough matchup against San Francisco, he did accumulate that yardage on just carries for a solid 4.1 yard average per carry.

Where Helu really did work was in the passing game, which is just putrid for the Redskins right now. Helu had a whopping 14 receptions for 105 yards because all John Beck could do most of the day was just dump it off. Helu won’t get receptions like that every week, but he clearly will be a factor out of the backfield, making him especially intriguing in PPR leagues, but valuable in all.

This is the gold star RB pickup of the week. I think he’ll be the ‘Skins main ball carrier from this day forward.

Chris Ogbonnaya, Cleveland (25%)

As I said with Colt McCoy, there isn’t much to like about Browns offense…except when they’re facing St. Louis’ defense. With Peyton Hillis’ name written in pen on the Browns’ shit list, and Montario Hardesty a constant injury risk, Ogbonnaya has stumbled into a great situation in terms of touches, and you might stumble into a decent flex option or filler player if you pounce now. Granted, “Silent G” as he’s been called, only had 41 total yards against the Texans, but he should have more running more against the room.

Kendall Hunter, San Francisco (13%)

Hunter is not a guy you want to pick up with the intention of playing right now, but if you have an extra roster spot he’s a great guy to take a flyer on. Frank Gore has rushed for 100 yards in five straight games, both because he’s an excellent back and because the 49ers’ offensive line is very good. Gore also has a history of getting nicked up. If anything happens to him, the ball would be Hunter’s, and I think he’d be 85-90% of what Gore’s been.

Donald Brown, Indianapolis (5%)

Brown has apparently become the guy in Indianapolis. He is the only one of their RBs scoring TDs, and he had 16 carries in Week 9 as opposed to only 4 for Delone Carter. If you’re desperate, Brown will at least get touches each week.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups: Wide Receiver

Michael Crabtree, San Francisco (48%)

Crabtree is featured in this column every week, and will continue to be featured until his ownership percentage jumps over 50%, which surely will happen this week. What more do you need us to say? I know his stats in Week 9 were underwhelming – 5 receptions, 51 yards – but he’s a great guy to at least have on your bench who is assured of 7-8 targets every week. Pick this guy up.

Mike Thomas, Jacksonville (46%)

The same theory that forced me to tell you that Blaine Gabbert is playing Indianapolis is at work here. Thomas is a good possession receiver stuck on a crappy offense. Against the crappy Colts, even Gabbert and Thomas should be able to make a few connections.

Torrey Smith, Baltimore (44%)

Mr. Hit or Miss could very well be a hit in Week 10 with the Seattle Seahawks on the schedule. Seattle is strong against the run, but not so strong against the pass. I think Joe Flacco will be airing out more than a few bombs in Smith’s direction throughout the course of this game.

Steve Breaston, Kansas City (35%)

Coming into Week 9, everyone was ready to anoint Jonathan Baldwin as the next great fantasy WR, and certainly Baldwin’s production would eclipse Steve Breaston’s, right? Well Baldwin proved why I’m always wary of rookie WRs (1 reception, 12 yards) and Breaston proved that he’s more than just a 5 catch, 50-yard guy (7 receptions, 115 yards). Granted, I would have played Baldwin over Breaston too last week for the upside, but this just goes to show that sometimes going with the “safe” pick over the “upside” one is the right decision.

Braylon Edwards, San Francisco (22%)

Braylon has been slow to get involved in the San Francisco offense, but I have a feeling he has an explosive game or two coming with five NFC West games left for the 49ers. Both of Braylon’s catches in Week 9 were nice catches, showing that he’s getting his sea legs under him after missing some time. There is some upside here.

Greg Little, Cleveland (18%)

Go back and review what I wrote about Colt McCoy and Chris Ogbonnaya if you’re wondering why I dare recommend Browns’ offensive players. Little has some value this week if you need a WR fill-in. His 2 receptions weren’t particularly encouraging in Week 9, but I’d still rather have him than Joshua Cribbs, even though the latter had the better day yesterday.

Jason Avant, Philadelphia (11%)

The Arizona Cardinals do not stop the pass very well, and the Philadelphia Eagles love to toss around with little abandon. Avant does not get near the attention that Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin get, but every now and then he busts out with a big performance. At a minimum, he’s usually good for at least 3-4 catches, which isn’t bad for a guy that is out there in 89% of leagues.

Laurent Robinson, Dallas (9%)

This is my gold star WR pickup of the week. Miles Austin got hurt, again, in Week 9, and Dez Bryant continues to be the most mercurial wideout in the NFL. Enter the steady Robinson, who continues to put up surprisingly good numbers as he earns the trust of Tony Romo.

He only caught 5 balls for 32 yards in Week 9, but one of them went for a TD. And in two of Robinson’s previous four games with the ‘Boys he totaled over 100 yards. There is a lot to like here.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups: Tight End

Scott Chandler, Buffalo (36%)

If we know one thing about Chandler, it’s that he only has value in the weeks when he scores touchdowns; but good luck predicting when that will be. So I’ll put this one on you: if you think Chandler will score this week against Dallas, he’s a decent option; if not, he’s not. My best guess? Hell if I know.

Jake Ballard, New York Giants (31%)

Out of the all the tight ends discussed in this post, Ballard is the one I like the most long-term; but I don’t like him all that much against San Francisco’s great linebackers in Week 10. So tread carefully this week, but the potential remains there down the stretch.

Jared Cook, Tennessee (31%)

Cook’s huge breakout into a star hasn’t really happened, but he has been occasionally useful. He’s no sure thing, but you could do worse in Weeks 10 and 11 if you need someone.

Brent Celek, Philadelphia (26%)

Fantasy owners have been burned by Celek in the past, and he’ll probably never be consistent, but he does seem to have a larger role in the Eagles’ offense now. With Arizona on the schedule this week, the potential is there for a big day.

Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota (21%)

Shiancoe caught a TD from Christian Ponder in the Vikings’ last matchup against Green Bay. That makes him worth a look this week with Green Bay on the schedule again.

Benjamin Watson, Cleveland (20%)

The Browns are playing the Rams. You get the idea.

Streaming Defenses of the Week

Washington Redskins (25%)

Washington isn’t a very good team because of their woeful offense, but they do have a good defense. With Miami on the schedule in Week 10, it should be a good week to own and play the Redskins.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2%)

I was amazed just now to find out that the Jaguars’ D is the least-owned defense in fantasy. Why? This is a pretty good defense, certainly one that should be able to put up  a strong fantasy day against Indianapolis in Week 10.

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Feel free to ask roster-specific questions below, and make sure you’re following @FantasyMSF on Twitter. And stay tuned for the Start/Sit column tomorrow.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Tips: Stars Who Could Disappoint

[Editor's note: remember, these are just players who could disappoint based on what is expected of them. It is not an automatic suggestion that you sit them - that decision could only be made based on who your alternatives are.]

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the league for one of the biggest surprises of the year in the Buffalo Bills. He has thrown at least two touchdowns in five of seven games this year, while leading the Bills to a 5-2 record.

He and the Bills are going up against the Jets and their seventh-ranked pass defense this week. The Jets tough D, coupled with Fitzpatrick’s injured chest, makes it a smart idea to bench Fitzpatrick this week. He is fully expected to play, but the Bills run game will have to take on a heavier load against the Jets’ 25th ranked run defense.

Ray Rice

Rice and the Ravens are preparing to battle the Steelers on Sunday Night Football, in what should be a low-scoring affair. The two teams have two of the NFL’s top five defenses, which will create a problem for Rice and the rest of the Ravens’ offense.

The Steelers allow just under 100 rushing yards on average. They also have the top-ranked pass defense in the NFL, but Joe Flacco will have to take his chances downfield in order for the Ravens to score. Rice had 107 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between the two teams, a game in which the Ravens won 35-7, but the Steelers defense had to deal with the offense giving up the ball seven times. Don’t expect Rice to put up 100 yards this time around.

Greg Jennings

This is a bold prediction, but Jennings may struggle against the Chargers’ fourth ranked pass defense. They held Dwayne Bowe to 62 yards on four catches last week, and they only allowed one passing touchdown.

I am not doubting the Packers offense this week, but if Jennings is given extra attention by the Chargers’ secondary, Rodgers has plenty of options. He can throw to the likes of Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, and James Jones if Jennings is covered.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Tips: Under-the-Radar Players

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer’s situation is far from being under-the-radar, but that does not have to do with his fantasy value. After throwing three interceptions in half of the game two weeks ago, many might have dismissed Palmer as being of any value.

It is important to note that the Raiders are coming off a bye week, which gave Palmer enough time to actually learn the playbook and get to know his receivers. Two weeks ago against Kansas City, Palmer was not supposed to play, as he just joined the team at the beginning of the week. After Kyle Boller had a dreadful first half, Palmer seemed like a better option than continuing on with Boller. With a full week of preparation under his belt, look for Palmer to tear up the weak Denver defense.

Chris Ogbonnaya

With Peyton Hillis missing yet another game, Ogbonnaya will get the start for the Browns as they head into Houston. The key with Ogbonnaya is that he is a primary receiver for Colt McCoy, so he will pick up both receiving and rushing yards. He should be able to reach the endzone at least once in Houston.

Jerome Simpson

Simpson had a tough week last week, as he only caught one pass from Andy Dalton, but it did go for a touchdown. This week should be different for Simpson, who has only failed to have at least three catches in two of seven games this year.

He is the other starting receiver, besides A.J. Green, and should be able to have a big day against the average Tennessee secondary.

The good news is that we are through most of the bye weeks, and just four teams (Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Minnesota) are off in Week Nine.  While most of those teams haven’t racked up many wins, there are some big fantasy names on those rosters for which owners may need a replacement.

As always, players listed here are owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups: Quarterback

Kevin Kolb (46%), Arizona

I’m not putting Kolb on here because he played well on Sunday, because, well, he didn’t.  However, the Cardinals face a St. Louis pass defense that has given up multiple touchdown passes in five of seven games.  In fact, the Rams have allowed seven passing scores in their three road games, making Kolb a decent bye week fill-in based solely on the matchup.

Matt Cassel (37%), Kansas City

Since I’m writing this on Sunday night, I can’t speak to Cassel’s Week Eight performance, but I can speak for the quality of his next few matchups.  The Chiefs face Miami, Denver, and New England during weeks 9, 10, and 11, and those just so happen to be the three defenses who allow the most points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks.

Andy Dalton (37%), Cincinnati

The Red Rifle now has two total touchdowns in three of his past four games, and my belief in him is undeterred by his two picks on Sunday, as they were made while he was being aggressive down the field.  His matchup against Tennessee next week is decent, given that the Titans have allowed at least 250 passing yards and/or multiple TD passes in five straight games.  What looks even better than that are Dalton’s fantasy playoff dates with St. Louis and Arizona.

Sam Bradford (29%), St. Louis

As I have mentioned the last couple weeks, Bradford still has some great matchups remaining on the schedule, starting with this week’s game against Arizona who has routinely been torched by opposing signal callers.  Keep an eye on his injury status this week to see if his ankle will allow him to take advantage of the deficiencies in the Cardinal secondary.

Carson Palmer (27%), Oakland

Like Kevin Kolb, let’s file this one under the “I know he played like Ryan Leaf the last time you saw him, but look at the matchup!” category.  Palmer used the bye week to develop timing with his new teammates, and he’ll face a Broncos defense allowing the most points to fantasy quarterbacks this year.  He’s worth a gamble if you’re looking for a one week fill-in for the likes of Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups: Running Back

Bernard Scott (42%), Cincinnati

Obviously Cedric Benson will be back next week, but Scott had some decent runs against a stout Seattle run defense and finished with 76 yards on the ground.  That isn’t enough to take the starting job from Benson, but it should be enough to get him a few more touches.  As is the case with Dalton, there are some great matchups to round out the year, making Scott a decent option to stash on your bench in the interim.

Maurice Morris (35%), Detroit (bye)

With Jahvid Best still out with a concussion, Morris had another solid game with 65 total yards and a short rushing TD.  He outplayed Keiland Williams by a fairly wide margin this week and would again be the starter if Best still isn’t recovered following Detroit’s bye.  As I have mentioned before, Best is far from the picture of health, which makes Morris a valuable handcuff.

Roy Helu (32%), Washington

After the last couple weeks Ryan Torain is dead to me, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mike Shanahan shared that sentiment.  That said, you never really know what’s going through Shanahan’s head, so the fact that Helu didn’t receive a single carry in Sunday’s loss to Buffalo means virtually nothing.  Consequently, it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that Helu gets a shot as the starter sometime between now and the end of the season.

Javon Ringer (6%), Tennessee

It was Ringer, and not well-paid mega bust Chris Johnson, who was taking fourth quarter handoffs against the Colts.  Johnson remained woefully ineffective, and while the offensive line didn’t do either back any favors, Ringer clearly looked like the better runner.  After the game Mike Munchak alluded to a committee approach going forward, which makes Ringer among the top waiver wire targets.  It’s worth noting he has 12 receptions in the last three games, so he’s an even better option in PPR leagues.  Next week’s matchup against the Bengals isn’t particularly enticing, but there are a number of games looming against teams who struggle to stop the run, starting with Carolina in Week Ten.

Kregg Lumpkin (5%), Tampa Bay

It sounds as though LeGarrette Blount will be back this week, but the Bucs will turn to Lumpkin if he experiences any setbacks.  Even if he doesn’t, Lumpkin is expected to serve as the third-down back, giving him some value in deep PPR leagues.

Lance Ball (1%), Denver

Both Ball and Knowshon Moreno rushed for over 60 yards against the Lions on Sunday, with Ball reaching that mark on just six carries.  If Willis McGahee misses another game next week, Ball is potentially worth a flier given the matchup against an Oakland defense that has given up some big games to running backs earlier this year.

Chris Ogbonnaya (1%), Cleveland

Healthy running backs are pretty tough to come by in Cleveland right now.  Peyton Hillis has missed the last two weeks with a hamstring injury, and backup Montario Hardesty is headed for a MRI on his calf after leaving Sunday’s game.  Ogbonnaya was just signed a couple weeks ago, but he has five receptions in each of his two games with the Browns and ran for 37 yards on 11 carries against the 49ers.  The Cleveland running game hasn’t been too impressive so far this year, but assuming Hillis and/or Hardesty are limited or out, Ogbonnaya stands to be a potential flex option this week, particularly in PPR leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups: Wide Receiver

Torrey Smith (48%), Baltimore

Smith still hasn’t shown great hands and will continue to be inconsistent, but if Joe Flacco could actually hit him in stride more than once a game, the big play ability is there.  That said, I don’t love the matchup with Pittsburgh this week, but given Baltimore’s remaining schedule, there will be some weeks when you’ll want to roll the dice and get him in your lineup.

Steve Breaston (40%), Kansas City

Similar to Cassel, there’s a lot to like about his upcoming schedule, particularly given his consistency in recent weeks.

Michael Crabtree (40%), San Francisco

I’ve been hyping Crabtree for a few weeks now, and on Sunday he came through with his first touchdown of the season to go with five receptions and 54 yards.  His foot continues to look healthy, and his rapport with Alex Smith is growing.  Crabtree now has at least five receptions in three of the last four weeks and has a number of favorable matchups over the latter half of the season.

Doug Baldwin (28%), Seattle

Like anyone who watched or attended it, Baldwin just wanted to forget about his week seven game against Cleveland.  He bounced back this week after being shutout against the Browns, catching five passes for 73 yards in a loss to Cincinnati.  Baldwin has at least five catches in three of the last four games and will continue to factor prominently in the Seattle passing game (yes, that actually exists) given what seems to be solid chemistry with Tarvaris Jackson.

Early Doucet (24%), Arizona

For the most part, the yardage hasn’t been there for Doucet, but he does have a TD grab in each of the last two games.  As I mentioned with Kolb, the matchup against St. Louis is enticing, which makes Doucet a possible one week fill-in if you are in a bind.

Damian Williams (2%), Tennessee

Williams has shown decent chemistry with Matt Hasselbeck after Kenny Britt went down, catching TD passes in weeks four and five and posting 60 yards against the Colts on Sunday.  Hasselbeck is really spreading the ball around, so no one player is going to assume Britt’s role as the go-to guy.  Still, Williams is a decent red zone target and has a few good matchups left on the slate.

Greg Salas (1%), St. Louis

After a less than inspiring start to his NFL career, Salas continues to play well out of the slot in St. Louis.  He caught five passes for 47 yards and seems to have put his early drops behind him.  As I mentioned with Bradford, the schedule gets much easier, making Salas an intriguing option in PPR leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Waiver Wire Pickups: Tight End

Jake Ballard (30%), New York Giants

Ballard is now averaging 60 receiving yards with a pair of touchdowns over the past four weeks.  The Patriots have shown vulnerability against the pass, and tight ends have done some damage against them in their last two games.  At this point, Ballard doesn’t look like a flash in the pan and is firmly entrenched as a TE2 going forward.

Scott Chandler (26%), Buffalo

After posting four catches for nine yards over the last three games, it seemed that the honeymoon was over for Chandler owners.  He caught just two passes on Sunday, but both went for touchdowns in Buffalo’s win over the Redskins.  Despite his gaudy TD total, Chandler has more than two receptions just once this season, making him a risky play against a Jets defense that has allowed only one score to opposing tight ends.

Marcedes Lewis (22%), Jacksonville (bye)

Even after his four-catch, 45-yard performance on Sunday, he’s not a guy to run out and grab.  However, the Jags made a concerted effort to get him the ball with nine targets, which is a good sign for one of last season’s breakout performers at the position.

Brent Celek (10%), Philadelphia

After a disappointing 2010 season and a painfully slow start to this one, Celek caught seven passes for 94 yards and a score against Dallas Sunday night.  He now has a touchdown in two straight games and faces a Bears defense that has been vulnerable to opposing tight ends this season, allowing an average of over six receptions and 70 yards per game with six touchdowns.

Streaming Defense(s) of the Week

Atlanta (20%) at Indianapolis

At this point of the season, I think it goes without saying that you want to grab the defense facing Indy.

Kansas City (19%) vs. Miami

The Chiefs showed against Oakland that they can take advantage of poor offensive line and quarterback play against an inferior team.  That formula should work again versus the Dolphins, who almost forgot to suck for Luck on Sunday.

Update: The Week 9 Start/Sit column is posted. Check it out.

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Have any questions or feedback?  Leave them in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter (@andybottoms).

As always, players listed here are owned in fewer than 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups: Quarterback

Carson Palmer (40%), Oakland (bye)

With three interceptions in less than a half, I haven’t seen Palmer play this poorly since, well, last year.  Is he an upgrade over Kyle Boller?  Of course, but then again Jeff George would be too.  Many will chalk this debacle up to rust or a lack of familiarity with his receivers, and while that played a role, it’s not as if Palmer was lighting up opposing secondaries last season.  The matchup against Denver following this week’s bye looks tempting, but nothing I saw yesterday gives me confidence in the newly unretired Palmer.

Sam Bradford (37%), St. Louis

Perhaps Sunday’s performance from A.J. Feeley will give people a new appreciation for Bradford’s talents and willingness to take a beating behind a woeful offensive line.  His ankle injury is a concern, but as I mentioned last week, there are plenty of good fantasy matchups left on the St. Louis schedule, particularly now that Brand Lloyd is in the mix.

Alex Smith (22%), San Francisco

Smith entered San Fran’s bye with six passing touchdowns in his last three games.  The 49ers face Cleveland in Week Eight, but don’t read too much into the Browns’ gaudy numbers against opposing quarterbacks.  Their opponents haven’t exactly been a who’s who of prolific signal callers.

Andy Dalton (20%), Cincinnati

I’ve listed Dalton in each of the last two columns, and I still like his matchup against the Seahawks this week.  Their pass defense isn’t as good as the numbers indicated against Cleveland, and their tough run defense, coupled with the absence of the suspended Cedric Benson, should give the “Red Rifle” opportunities to air it out.

John Beck (9%), Washington

In his first start of the season, Beck ran for one touchdown and threw for another while racking up 279 passing yards.  That’s now two straight weeks with a rushing score, and his ability to move around and extend plays stood out.  Next up for Beck is a Buffalo pass defense who has allowed at least 292 passing yards in each of the last five games.  That said, the loss of Santana Moss to a hand injury is a potential red flag.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups: Running Back

Knowshon Moreno (46%), Denver

With Willis McGahee’s broken hand almost certain to keep him out of action this week, Moreno is sure to be a hot waiver wire target.  He rushed for 28 yards on seven carries in relief of McGahee this week, but he has failed to show any ability to live up to his lofty draft status over the course of his brief career.  The Broncos take on Detroit next week, who has been victimized on the ground the last few weeks, but I have a hard time recommending Moreno outside of PPR leagues.  It’s also worth noting that Lance Ball and Tim Tebow are more likely options around the goal line.

Ben Tate (42%), Houston

Obviously Arian Foster looks as healthy as ever, but Tate’s 104-yard performance on Sunday proved his value as a handcuff should Foster suffer any setbacks.  Keep in mind that the Texans face Carolina and Indianapolis in Weeks 15 and 16, giving Tate even more value.

Montario Hardesty (36%), Cleveland

The good news is that Hardesty held up under a heavy workload on Sunday and compiled 122 total yards against a solid Seattle defensive front.  The bad news is that he averaged fewer than three yards per carry and had just one run of over eight yards.  If Peyton Hillis misses next week’s game against San Francisco, Hardesty would still be a flex option based on the workload despite a tough matchup, but that’s about it.

Maurice Morris (35%)/Keiland Williams (3%), Detroit

Morris and Williams essentially split the backfield touches with Jahvid Best out on Sunday.  Morris got 31 of his 50 rushing yards on one play, but he was more involved in the passing game.  Williams also looked decent on the ground and looks like the better short yardage option.  Given the rumors about Best potentially missing the rest of the year, it’s worth stashing one of these guys just in case.  Those rumors have obviously been denied, but you have to acknowledge Best’s lengthy injury history.  Next week’s matchup with Denver isn’t quite as good as it may seem since the Broncos have yet to allow an opposing running back to rush for a score.

Delone Carter (19%), Indianapolis

With Joseph Addai aggravating his hamsting injury, Carter stepped in and ran for 89 yards and a TD on 10 carries while the Colts were being dismantled by New Orleans.  The game was already out of hand when Addai was injured (yes, I know it was only the first quarter), so the severity of the injury is unclear.  However, the Colts face a Tennessee defense that was just shredded on the ground and has allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their last two games.

Bernard Scott (9%), Cincinnati

With Cedric Benson serving his suspension this week, Scott will get the start against Seattle.  I like Scott’s skill set, but the Seahawks have been tough on opposing runners this year.  Based on his workload, Scott becomes a decent flex option as a bye week fill-in.

Alfonso Smith (1%), Arizona

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Beanie Wells got dinged up this week.  With Wells on the sideline, Smith stepped in and rushed for a score against the Steelers.  He finished with 17 rushing yards on five carries, and he also filled in for Wells in Week Three with 75 total yards.  Wells has typically been a slow healer, but Smith isn’t a particularly attractive option with the Ravens up next on the schedule.  LaRod Stephens-Howling will also take over on passing downs, further limiting Smith’s value.

Kregg Lumpkin (1%), Tampa Bay (bye)

Early reports are that Earnest Graham has a torn Achilles, which would end his season.  The Bucs have the bye week for LeGarrette Blount’s knee to get healthy, but if that isn’t enough time, Lumpkin would be the de facto starter.  He struggled on the ground against the Bears, tallying just 15 yards on eight carries.  Lumpkin did catch six balls for 37 yards, which makes him far more intriguing in PPR leagues should Blount remain out.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups: Wide Receiver

Michael Crabtree (38%), San Francisco

I’ve been on the Crabtree bandwagon for a couple weeks, and even with Joe Haden looming on Sunday, his ownership percentage is way too low.  It’s probably a week where you think twice about starting him, but his foot seems healthy and there are a number of great matchups left on the San Francisco schedule.

Steve Breaston (29%), Kansas City

With five catches and 64 yards on Sunday, Breaston has at least 50 yards in four straight games.  One of those games was against the Chargers, who just gave up three scores to a number two wideout and travel to Arrowhead on Sunday.

Antonio Brown (29%), Pittsburgh

Brown had a career day with seven catches for 102 yards against the woeful Arizona secondary.  With Hines Ward banged up, Brown seized the opportunity as the Steelers went to more wide open offensive sets.  The Steelers continue to struggle at establishing the run game (as my fellow Rashard Mendenhall owners can attest), which could mean more big games from Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing attack.

Greg Little (29%), Cleveland

The rookie receiver now has at least five catches in three straight games and led the Browns with seven targets on Sunday.  The yardage was disappointing, but he’s emerging as a strong PPR league option and remains a solid red zone target.  Beware this week, as the 49ers have given up just one TD to an opposing wideout since Week Two.  Still, the Browns are sure to force feed Little the ball either way.

Jabar Gaffney (19%), Washington

With Santana Moss out with a hand injury, Gaffney will be asked to step up as the number one wideout.  He has significantly more value in PPR leagues, but with the exception of a matchup with the 49ers, there are some decent matchups on Washington’s schedule over the next month or so.  Terrence Austin has also showed some chemistry with Beck, so keep an eye on him as well.

Demaryius Thomas (9%), Denver

The numbers, three catches for 27 yards and a score, don’t necessarily stand out.  But the 10 targets do.  Thomas did have a couple drops, but he’s sure to be a huge part of the Denver passing game with Brandon Lloyd now in St. Louis.  He’s worth adding in any format.

Michael Jenkins (7%), Minnesota

As I said four weeks ago, the numbers might be tempting, but don’t go pick him up.  Sometimes old advice is the best advice, like never eat yellow snow.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Waiver Wire Pickups: Tight End

Jermaine Gresham (42%), Cincinnati

As I mentioned above, I think the Bengals will be forced to throw it a decent amount against Seattle.  While that is good news for Gresham in and of itself, it’s worth noting that the Seahawks have given up a touchdown to an opposing tight end in two of the last three games.

Heath Miller (31%), Pittsburgh

Always one of Roethlisberger’s favorite red zone targets, Miller now has touchdowns in two of the last three weeks.  The Patriots have given up a couple big games to opposing tight ends, making Miller a decent bye week fill-in.

Visanthe Shiancoe (19%), Minnesota

A solid tight end can be a young quarterback’s best friend, which could help Shiancoe re-emerge as a fantasy factor over the remainder of the year.  Next week Minnesota takes on a Carolina defense that just got lit up by Fred Davis, which makes Shiancoe a reasonable option if you’re desperate.

Streaming Defense(s) of the Week

Cincinnati (24%) at Seattle

The Bengals have been a terrific fantasy defense this season, and words can’t do justice to the ineptitude of the Seattle offense on Sunday.  Charlie Whitehurst actually made Seattle fans pine for Tarvaris Jackson, maybe even Dan McGwire from the early 90s.  That Seahawks-Browns game could have single-handedly killed any interest for football in London.  Hell, it almost killed interest in my own home.

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Have any questions or feedback?  Leave them in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter (@andybottoms).

Twitter and Facebook are buzzing about this deal, with most coming to the consensus that Oakland, as they are wont to do, is overpaying for a player with questions surrounding his ability and desire.  But if we examine this situation, that might not be true.

Impact of the Carson Palmer Trade on Oakland

Palmer is less than a year removed from playing all 16 games for the Bengals and throwing for nearly 4000 yards.  He did pile up 20 interceptions, but the rest of Cincinnati’s offense struggled too, with Chad Ochocinco’s sharp decline (831 yards, 4 TD) and Cedric Benson’s YPC dropping to just 3.5.

If Palmer is in shape ,he has a chance to play almost immediately in Oakland, and his supporting weapons will be much stronger than those he had in his final season with Cincinnati.  Darren McFadden and the Raiders’ punishing running game will allow Palmer some freedom to operate and give him underneath and screen options he never had with the likes of Rudi Johnson and Benson.  He has a group of emerging playmakers at wide receiver, including the much-maligned Darrius Heyward-Bey, who is quietly putting up a very solid season (17 catches, 296 yards last 3 games).  Throw versatile wideouts Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore in the mix and Palmer will have arguably his most talented supporting cast ever.

Another thing to consider is that Palmer in Cincinnati was never really the right fit.  Palmer admitted to disliking Ohio State and the fans of Ohio.  Now he will get to play just a couple of hours from his hometown of Fresno and a couple more from his alma mater USC.  His attitude should be sufficiently adjusted, given the opportunity he has to win and the comfort of playing back in California for the first time in almost a decade.

As long as the Raiders keep winning these fans will welcome Carson Palmer with open arms.

Lastly for the Raiders, this trade is a total Al Davis-style move.  Al specialized in landing castoffs and retreads and turning them into valuable players.  His track record waned the past few years, but clearly the Raiders’ resurgence of late was a product of Al’s vision.  The players who have gotten the Raiders back to respectability and on the brink of even more – McFadden, Ford, Sebastian Janikowski (a kicker taken in the first round?  Gasp!), Richard Seymour, among them – were considered poor moves by Davis until the recent bout of success.

With this success, the 2012 first round pick is likely to be later in the draft and not a top-ten like the Raiders have had so often in the past 10 years.  The 2013 pick will kick in based on performance incentives from Palmer, which is a win for Oakland as well, because if Palmer is playing well then it is likely the Raiders are winning.  The Raiders have a few holes to plug still (most glaringly at cornerback), but I think they plugged their biggest one with this trade.

Impact of the Carson Palmer Trade on Cincinnati

For Cincinnati this trade is a roaring success.  Palmer was collecting dust in his self-imposed exile, and worst of all (for him) rookie Andy Dalton has come on like wildfire and led the team to an unexpected 4-2 record.  Cincinnati needed to trade Palmer, but owner Mike Brown’s stubbornness was expected to eliminate the chance of that ever happening.

To Brown’s credit (or dumb luck), a team became just desperate enough to give up a treasure – first round picks – to acquire Palmer.  The Bengals can now focus on further rebuilding during a time when AFC North stalwarts Baltimore and Pittsburgh are showing signs of age and vulnerability.

The Bengals can now target a replacement for Benson or another wide receiver to go with standout rookie A.J. Green, which may become a necessity depending on the outcome Jerome Simpson’s marijuana trafficking situation.  This would provide the Bengals with a core of youth that can learn and gel together and truly build a sustained winner for years to come.

Rarely do trades like this work out well for both teams, but my initial thought is that this was a wise move on both sides.  Al Davis would be proud, the Raiders should be able to keep improving, and the Bengals are no longer in Palmer-limbo and can focus on further improving an already brilliant young cast of players.

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Follow me on Twitter @keithmullett

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Image credits: nflpassers.com, denverpost.com, footiewallpapers.com

Via today’s Hot Clicks (Jimmy Traina was on fire today…this is the second video I’ve re-posted – first here – after seeing it at HC), here is “Retired in California” by Ryan Parker:

Bravo Mr. Parker. This sums up pretty well what I said on Twitter a few days ago: it really must suck to be a Bengals fan. (Believe me…when someone who follows the Dolphins and 49ers is taking pity on you, that’s bad.)

Oh Mike Brown. Have mercy on your fan base. Please.

Or not.

Palmer gave the the Bengals’ front office a choice: they could either trade him or he would retire. He is currently under contract through 2014, which makes this decision seem quite selfish. He signed a contract, and after a bad season he wants out. He is essentially giving up on his team and losing any respect that his teammates might have had for him.

The Bengals have announced that they have no intention to trade him, which means that Palmer is, as of right now, retired. His decision can be looked at it two ways.

One way to look at it is to side with Palmer, and believe that the Bengals might as well trade him.

Trading him would make sense, as the Bengals might receive some players in return for Palmer. These players would produce more than a retired Palmer would, obviously.

Siding with Palmer would also make one see why Palmer wants out of Cincy. His team was full of distracting, me-first characters, (Chad Ochocinco, T.O., Adam “PacMan” Jones, along with many others), and his defense played poorly last season, allowing the most points in the AFC North.

The other way to look at the situation is to see Palmer as someone who is not truly as passionate about the game of football as he once was. He has tens of millions of dollars, so he does not need any more money. He has also had many injuries throughout his career, including the catastrophic knee injury in the 2005 playoffs which led to a rule change on low hits on quarterbacks.

If Palmer does not care about the game, then that is fine. However, he should not have agreed to a contract extension if he had no intention of fulfilling his commitment to the contract. By signing, he agreed to play through the 2014 season. He signed this after a successful season in 2005, in which the team made the playoffs, but he should not have made such a lengthy commitment in the first place.

This situation is similar to that of Jake Plummer, who was traded by Denver to Tampa Bay in 2007. After the trade he announced his decision to retire rather than play for the Bucs. However, he has never officially retired, which requires filing retirement papers with the NFL.

If Palmer sits out this season, he will most likely not file his retirement papers. If he has any intention of ever playing again, he might continue to ask for a trade. If he has no intention of playing, then may he enjoy a great retirement. Being a Browns fan, I have no issue with not seeing Carson Palmer on the field twice a year.

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* – Carson Palmer photo credit: Andy Lyons / Getty via 17Power

Across the country in quiet Kansas City, Matt Cassel, a former teammate of Leinart’s at USC (his backup in fact), had no one even close to atwitter after an underwhelming 2009 campaign in which his QB rating was 69.9 and he threw as many INTs as he did TDs.

Before the preseason started, nary a fantasy football owner would have chosen Cassel over Leinart; but as often happens in the NFL, things have not turned out as anyone expected.

Cassel has become a revelation under second-year coach Todd Haley while  the erstwhile Leinart Era had yet another false start in Arizona that resulted in one of the most ignominious outcomes imaginable for a quarterback: being benched for Derek Anderson.

This is the unlikely tale of two Matts whose respective statures have done a near complete 180 over the last half decade.

Note: If you can’t see the image above, click to view it here.

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Though I did a good job answering specific questions with all relevant lineup/league info (as I feel I usually do), Week 9 was certainly less than stellar with respect to the top-line picks.

While I nailed Eli Manning as a start and Seattle’s D as a sit…that was pretty much it. See below. The carnage was ugly.

But you know me. Bad weeks only motivate me more to dig deeper into the numbers and trends. I am committed to making Week 10 a much more accurate week over all…as much for your teams as for my own.

I am writing this while watching Monday Night Football. I need a 20 point night from Mike Wallace to pull out a win in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*, and with the Steelers up 17-7 and Wallace not having a TD yet, that seems unlikely. If I lose, I’ll be 5-4 and in pretty serious need of a winning streak to ensure I at least make the playoffs.

Remember, the stakes are the Super Bowl, so you know I’m overturning every stone in an effort to win – like my last minute of pick up of Seyi Atirotutu on Sunday (see, it wasn’t all bad!). The upshot is that I regurgitate all of this research into these columns, hopefully helping you out in the process.

Before we delve into the Week 10 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 9 (ugh) with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack. Last week’s winner was commenter nik. Who will win this week?
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 9 recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Eli Manning,
• Start ‘em misses: Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Todd Heap, New England D
• Sit ‘em hits: Seattle Seahawks D
• Sit ‘em misses: Matthew Stafford, Steve Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Cedric Benson

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: the following teams are on bye in Week 10:

• San Diego Chargers
• Oakland Raiders
• New Orleans Saints
• Green Bay Packers
  

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em QB: David Garrard, Jacksonville (v Houston)

If you read this week’s waiver wire sleepers column, you know that David Garrard is my “gold star pickup of the week.” Why? Well look no further than the Houston Texans pass defense. This porous unit has given up 20 TDs in 8 games this year, and is one of the most targetable defensive units I can remember in my history playing fantasy football.

Also, Garrard has not been a slouch this year, despite his shoddy reputation. Sure, he’s been inconsistent, but that’s who he is. David Garrard is inconsistent. It’s a tenet of fantasy football.

But he has thrown for at least two TDs in four of his seven starts this year, and the games he struggled in were against the solid pass defenses of Tennessee, Philly, and San Diego. Against more suspect pass defenses like Dallas and Buffalo, Garrard has taken advantage. And suspect would be a kind way of describing Houston’s pass D.

Worth noting as well: Garrard has historically been much better at home than away. He is absolutely a must start this week. He’ll be in my top 10, the question is will he be top 5?

David Garrard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• Michael Vick against Washington’s generous pass defense is an obvious play.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick actually had a decent showing against a very tough Bears defense. He faces the much more forgiving Detroit secondary in Week 10.
• Whoever starts for the Lions – Matthew Stafford or Shaun Hill (but not Drew Stanton, I don’t trust him) – is a solid start against the Buffalo Bills.
• Eli Manning is a very good start at home against Dallas. He torched them a few weeks ago and the Giants are red hot right now. The Cowboys are the opposite of red hot.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at Chicago)

I know that you Brett Favre owners probably had the old man on your bench in Week 9 (a wise move, despite the result) and had to watch him put up two TDs and 446 passing yards. You are probably itching to get him in your lineup this week, especially if you have Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, or Aaron Rodgers.

Unfortunately for you (or perhaps fortunately), I am here to throw some cold water on you with the following realities:

• The Bears have allowed only five passing touchdowns all season
• Favre continues to start and finish most games, but he gets older and more dinged up each week. Don’t you think the physical Bears will try everything they can to smack their old nemesis around? Favre staying healthy is a major risk each week for the rest of the season.
• The numbers Brett put up last week were against a very weak Cardinals pass D. Sidney Rice is not expected to be back at full strength by next Sunday (though he should play) meaning Favre will have to go against the Bears’ secondary with Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Greg Camarillo again.

I absolutely think Favre needs to be the starter for the Vikings, and I think he has a shot to put up more consistent numbers once Sidney Rice gets back to full strength, but with so many good “second tier” QB options like Garrard and Fitzpatrick out there, why risk playing Favre when he is throwing so many INTs and so banged up? I just don’t like the risk/return here.

Brett Favre fantasy football Week 10 projection: 275 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 10:

• I would like to apologize to everyone for having Chad Henne ranked so highly last week. I’m done with him. He sucks.
• Carson Palmer against the Indy pass D? No thanks. At least, not top 10. He did have another solid game against Pittsburgh, I just don’t totally trust him yet.
• Don’t get cute and think you should start Colt McCoy because he’s playing well in real life. The Browns’ offense does not produce passing TDs, and the Jets have lots of talent in their secondary.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Start ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at Arizona)

You probably think I’m crazy. Why would I tell you to start a running back who has 57 yards on 20 carries with no touchdowns the last two weeks? Well, to be honest, it’s all about the matchup.

The Seahawks face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. The Cardinals give up in the neighborhood of 130 rushing yards per game. They have also given up nine rushing TDs this season (and it should be 10 if the Vikings would have given Adrian Peterson one more goalline try in the 4th quarter…but I digress.)

So while Lynch has been a major disappointment the last couple of weeks, and will continue to be up and down, this is one of the “up” weeks. Hopefully Matt Hasselbeck will be back too, which should help the Seattle offense provide more scoring opportunities for its running backs.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 10 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 10:

• I’m not a huge fan of the matchup versus the Jets, but Peyton Hillis is officially a must start now. How can he not be?
• I didn’t like Cedric Benson last week against Pittsburgh, but I do like him this week against Indy.
• Fred Jackson is a sneaky-good start against the relatively forgiving Lions’ D this week, and CJ Spiller is even worth a flyer in deeper leagues.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, New York Jets (at Cleveland)

Yes, that’s right. I’m telling you to sit the running backs from a 6-2 team against the Cleveland Browns. Here’s why:

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see why LT and Shonn Greene are good sit ‘em candidates this way, as well as the rest of the sit ‘em RBs, and my Week 10 start em, sit em picks at WR, TE, and Defense.

Note that commenting is turned off here, but you can ask your team-specific questions in the comment section of any post over at MSF Fantasy Sports.

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

This week, I must regretfully inform you that I lost in Week 8, falling to 5-3 with a 14 point loss. The worst part? A win was sitting on my bench.

I wrestled all week with Fred Jackson versus BenJarvus Green-Ellis at my RB#2 slot. I finally settled on Jackson because he had gotten about the twice the number of touches as BJGE in weeks 6 and 7, and because the Chiefs had allowed five rushing TDs on the year against only three allowed by the Vikings.

I struggled with this choice right up until kickoff, but went with Jackson and ultimately felt good about it.

Then Week 8 played out, Jackson got only 75 total yards with no scores, and I watched The Lawfirm torch the Vikings for 100+ yards and two TDs. Needless to say, it was a painful and bitter pill to swallow.

But you know what? I don’t regret my decision. I analyzed it, weighed a number of factors, and went with the player I had the most confidence in. It wasn’t like I just forgot to set my rosters or was forced to make a shotgun decision at the final moment.

It’s fantasy football though, which means that every prediction we make is inherently unpredictable. We just make the best educated guesses we can and hope for the best. All of us do. Even the most astute fantasy player.

The key is to have a consistent strategy and use sound reasoning based in statistical fact. If you do that and a decision turns out wrong? Well, you lick your wounds, learn whatever you can from it, and then turn your attention towards next week. I can’t bring BenJarvus Green-Ellis onto my active roster for Week 8, but I certainly can do everything possible to make a better start/sit decision in Week 9.

And here’s hoping I can help you make better decisions as well.

Before we delve into Week 9, here are two quick notes and then a quick recap of how I did in Week 8 with the top-line picks:

1. Make sure you use your correct email address when commenting below. A random commenter will be chosen for a free P&G gift pack.
2. Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about last week. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

Week 8 Recap:

• Start ‘em hits: Drew Brees, Ryan Torain; Washington D, Pierre Garcon (though not to the extreme I thought)
• Start ‘em misses: Kellen Winslow;
• Sit ‘em hits: Dallas D, Chris Ivory (and all Saints RBs), Matt Schaub
• Sit ‘em misses: Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker; Brandon Pettigrew

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A

Note: the Broncos, Jaguars, 49ers, Rams, Titans, and Redskins are on bye in Week 9.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Seattle)

Yes, I’m a little nervous about this because Seattle’s D is typically much better at home than on the road. However, the Seahawks were giving up 260+ passing yards per game coming into Week 8 before allowing Jason Campbell to look like a good NFL quarterback – 310 yards, 2 TDs.

While it’s true that Eli Manning can be inconsistent and will throw interceptions, he also has thrown 9 touchdowns over the last three weeks (against 5 INTs) and has one of the best WR corps in the NFL. With the Giants now running well behind Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, it is opening their passing game even more. With a lot of QBs on bye this week, Eli is certainly a top 10 option.

Eli Manning fantasy football Week 9 projection: 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Philip Rivers is facing Houston. You do the math. It computes whether he has any healthy WRs or not.
• Aaron Rodgers may have struggled mightily against the Jets last week, but did you see what David Garrard did to Dallas? Make sure you keep ARodg in your lineup.
• Joe Flacco, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs over the last two weeks, is a very good option against the Miami Dolphins.
• Chad Henne is clearly going to keep throwing. You could do a lot worse than Henne against Baltimore, as I outlined in this week’s waiver wire sleeper article.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Sit ‘em QB: Matthew Stafford, Detroit (v New York Jets)

Matthew Stafford returned from injury in a big way in Week 8. He torched the Washington Redskins for 200+ yards and 4 TDs, against only one INT. Naturally, Calvin Johnson was a huge beneficiary of Stafford’s return.

However, while I like Stafford a lot long term, this week I am not too high on him with the Jets’ now-healthy secondary coming to town. Remember, Washington entered Week 8 31st in the NFL against the pass, so Stafford’s solid day shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise.

In Week 8, Darrelle Revis and the Jets held Aaron Rodgers to at 15-34 day and only 170 yards. At this point in their careers, Rodgers is a much better player than Stafford. And while the Jets statistically have not been dominant against opposing QBs this season, they also haven’t been fully healthy. It appears like now they are.

Stafford is going to have plenty of good games over the balance of the season. Week 9 just won’t be one of them.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 9 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 9:

• Mark Sanchez played awful in Week 1, then got hot over the next few weeks, and has seemingly regressed again recently. You have to sit him until he proves he can produce consistently again.
• Carson Palmer has a QB rating of 78 against the Steelers during his career. He didn’t play well last week against Miami, with one of his TD passes being an absolute gift. I don’t like him this week.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick did not play terribly Week 8, but after four straight weeks of at least two TD passes, his numbers against KC were a bit underwhelming. Facing the Bears (who have given up only 4 TD passes all season) in Week 9 means Fitz will likely be underwhelming again this week.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Start ‘em RB: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (at Buffalo)

This one really isn’t hard. The Bears are struggling to protect Jay Cutler and the Bills are the worst team in the NFL against the run. In case you needed the Bills’ defensive deficiencies to be reiterated, the Chiefs top two backs ran 41 times for 254 yards. So…start your running backs when they’re playing the Bills.

Regarding Forte specifically, he’s only averaging 3.9 yards per carry this year, and he only has 3 rushing TDs, but the Bills give up 5+ yards per carry. Average those out and I think we can reasonably expect Forte to average around 4.5 yards per carry. The bonus with Forte is that he catches passes. He’s added 3 receiving TDs this year to go along with 26 catches and 300+ yards.

All in all, this is the kind of week you have Forte for. The Bears will undoubtedly ride him in a must-win game, and the matchup suggests he’ll produce.

Matt Forte fantasy football Week 9 projection: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 40 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 9:

• I mentioned LeGarrette Blount in the sleeper picks article this week. Against a so-so Atlanta run D, he needs to be in your lineup this week if you have a starter on bye.
• Darren McFadden is facing the very solid KC defense, but he went over 100 yards for the second straight week in Week 8. He plays.
• Seattle has a very good run defense, but Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are both playing very well right now. Bradshaw is a definite must-start, and Jacobs’ ability find the end zone makes him a solid flex option too.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a great outing in Week 8 and now deserves to start every week. Danny Woodhead found his way into the end zone again and is valuable as well.

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Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see who my sit ‘em RB is, as well as my start/sit picks at WR, TE, and Defense.

Note: The comment section is disabled here. But head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to ask all your lineup-specific questions for Week 9.

* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.

If AJ Burnett can somehow pitch well in Game 4 and the Yankees win, they will find themselves at a very fortuitous 2-2…but 2-2 nonetheless.

Keep this in mind with your fantasy teams.

Maybe you’ve started off slowly this year with plenty of underperforming players. Maybe you grabbed one or two lucky wins and are just hanging on right now. Well, hang on. Work a little harder. Study the waiver wire. Study your players and the matchups to make better choices. You never know when you’re team can get hot and rattle of 3, 4, 5 victories in a row.

At this point, you’re probably stuck with 80-85% of your roster, so don’t give up. There is still plenty of season left to fight your way into the playoffs.

And with that said, let’s fight our way to victories in Week 7.

But first, as always, a quick look back at Week 6:

• Start ‘em hits: Ben Roethlisberger, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mike Wallace
• Start ‘em misses: Chicago D, Chris Cooley
• Sit ‘em hits: Tom Brady, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Tate, New England D
• Sit ‘em misses: Todd Heap

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start / Sit Projections and Q&A

Note: the Lions, Texans, Colts, and Jets are on bye in Week 7.

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Deion Branch” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. But if you own Roy Williams, yes I’d start Roy. I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Buffalo)

The Bills were off in Week 6. During the first five weeks of the season they gave up 2+ TDs per game (11 total) and picked off only one pass. Don’t be fooled by the their low yardage total allowed (200 per game). That was mostly a function of teams getting up early and often on Buffalo and then choosing to run the ball.

Joe Flacco has disappointed many of his fantasy owners, but he’s coming off of a 2-TD, 285-yard performance against New England, and now has 6 TDs and 1 INT over the last four weeks.

The Ravens will be smarting after their OT loss to the Patriots and cannot afford a letdown against the Bills. They’ll come out ready to play and Flacco will have a solid day.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 7 projection: 250 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 7:

• Tony Romo is a bag full of good and bad. He throws for lots of yards, throws lots of TDs, and also throws lots of INTs. But he throws, a lot, regardless of the game, and that’s why you need to keep him in your lineups.
• Chad Henne is not a guy I trust long-term this season. However, with Pittsburgh sporting the league’s best run D, the Dolphins will be forced to pass. If Colt McCoy could have a solid day against Pittsburgh with virtually no weapons, Henne should be able to put up some decent numbers with Brandon Marshall if you’re desperate for bye week filler.
• I like Sam Bradford against Tampa Bay, even with his no-name group of wide receivers. The Bucs gave up a nice day to Drew Brees in Week 6. Take about 3/4 of that and I think that’s what you can get from Bradford in Week 7.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Sit ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (vs Washington)

I just do not trust Jay Cutler. More specifically, I don’t trust his offensive line to give him any significant amount of time to effectively play his position. (And I also don’t like nor trust Jay Cutler. At all.)

In Week 6, Cutler returned from his concussion and threw 290 yards. That doesn’t sound bad, expect when you qualify it by saying that he was 17-39 and threw no TDs. And this comes on the heels of Cutler throwing 1 TD against 2 INTs in his previous two games.

I realize that Washington has given up a lot of passing yards this season, but they can also rush the passer pretty well. With the way the Bears’ passing game has sputtered the last two weeks, I want to see it succeed before I trust Cutler again.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 7 projection: 275 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 7:

• Matt Ryan threw two TDs last week against Philly, but both came after the Falcons fell behind 21-0. In Week 7, I expect the Falcons to be leading the Bengals, and thus able to run more. Plus, Cincinnati has a couple of good corners that will make life tough on the Falcons’ WRs.
• Carson Palmer does not start until further notice. And I’m not sure that notice will ever come. I certainly don’t like him against a pissed off Atlanta defense.
• Matt Cassel threw for 3 TDs against Houston’s D. While Jacksonville’s pass D is nothing to write home about, they are not historically bad like Houston’s is. Go ahead and trust Cassel if you want to. I won’t.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (vs Oakland)

It’s been a long season for Knowshon Moreno owners. The talented second-year back has been hobbled by a hamstring injury most of the season, although he did score TDs in each of the first two weeks. Finally, Moreno got back on the field in Week 6, and he did okay. He only got 12 carries against the Jets, but he did earn 4 yards per carry, which is a decent sign that the hammy is better.

The reason Moreno is a good start in Week 7 is his matchup. Denver faces an Oakland team that was ranked 31st in the NFL against the run coming into the game, giving up 147.8 yards per game rushing. In Week 7, Frank Gore torched the Raiders for 149 yards rushing. I’m not sure Moreno will do that well, but if you’ve stayed patient with him, you have to play him this week.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 7 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 7:

• Cedric Benson has run well the last the two weeks. As badly as Carson Palmer has been playing, you know they’ll keep giving it to Benson. Keep him in your lineup.
• Ahmad Bradshaw continues to put up solid numbers. He also has a career 4.7 yard average against the Cowboys, who have given up solid fantasy days to three straight runners.
• I was not high on Marshawn Lynch in Week 7, yet he got 17 carries and scored a TD at the Bears. He should find the going a bit easier against Arizona, which has one of the league’s worst run defenses.

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see who my sit ‘em RBs are and to see my start / sit picks at WR, TE, and Defense.

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While predicting Peyton Hillis and Vernon Davis to have strong days proved accurate, I whiffed on Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan. Had I flipped them, I would have been in good shape!

Such is the frustration of try to predict the unpredictable. But I love the challenge. So let’s quickly review my Week 4 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks and then move on to Week 5.

• Start ‘em hits: Peyton Hillis, Vernon Davis
• Start ‘em misses: Matt Ryan, Cincinnati D, Santana Moss
• Sit ‘em hits: Jahvid Best, Todd Heap
• Sit ‘em misses: Carson Palmer, Derrick Mason & TJ Houshmandzadeh

Still to play: Miami Dolphins

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Note that the following teams have byes in Week 5: Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Houston)

Is it really as easy as just picking whichever QB is playing against the Houston Texans? Why yes, it certainly appears that it is.

The Texans were by the far the worst defense against the pass coming into Week 4, and so far as I write this on Sunday afternoon, Bruce Gradkowski – Bruce Gradkowski! - is 10-14 for 119 yards and a TD, and he hasn’t even completed a pass to Louis Murphy yet. (Note: Gradkowski finished with 278 yards and 2 TDs.)

Even without seeing what Eli does against Chicago tonight, I’ll gladly pencil him into the start ‘em spot. (Update: Eli threw for close to 200 yards but no TDs.) He’s thrown too many INTs and really made some bone-headed decisions, but he’s a good QB with a good receiver corps and the matchup is too delicious to ignore.

Eli Manning fantasy football Week 5 projection: 315 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 5:

• Friends, you know I don’t like recommending rookies. However, I love Sam Bradford, and I especially love him this week. Bradford now has two 2-TD performances in his first four games as a starter, and that’s without a legitimate #1 receiver. In Week 5 he gets the Lions’ secondary, which just isn’t very good.
• Tony Romo‘s last time out was very productive, though it was against the Texans. In Week 5 he gets a Titans secondary that had been pretty good the first two weeks but that gave up 300+ yards and two TDs to Kyle Orton in Week 5. I like Romo for about the same.
• What else can be said about Mark Sanchez? He has put his awful Week 1 performance behind him and become one of the most productive QBs in fantasy with 8 TDs and no INTs over the last three weeks. I don’t expect him to continue at this pace, but the Jets face a very good Minnesota run D that will force them to pass. That doesn’t seem so scary for Jets fans anymore.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em QB: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (vs Tampa Bay)

I guess you could say I’m stubborn.

I picked Palmer as my sit ‘em QB last week, then he promptly went out and torched the Cleveland pass D. In hindsight, after seeing what Baltimore’s then-crappy pass attack did to Cleveland in Week 3, I probably should not have been so bold in my assessment of their ability to rebound and limit Palmer.

However, I do think the Buccaneers can limit Palmer and the Bengals.

Not only is Tampa Bay coming off of a bye, but they are playing very good pass D this year. Through three games, the Bucs are giving up less than 200 yards per game and have picked off 6 passes against only 5 TDs; and two of those TDs were by Pittsburgh on plays that easily could have been incompletions with the coverage Tampa Bay had.

But this pick is more about my lack of faith in Palmer. He has been trending downward for years and I simply don’t have faith in him as a consistent top-12 starter. I don’t think Palmer will be terrible, but if you’re thinking of starting him I challenge you to see if someone like Sam Bradford or Mark Sanchez is available. I’d start either over Palmer this week.

Carson Palmer fantasy football Week 5 projection: 215 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 5:

• Brett Favre. He’s at the Jets and Sidney Rice still isn’t there. Plus, Revis might be back. I don’t like it, even though the Jets have given up more passing yards this year that we would have expected.
• I’m not particularly high on Jay Cutler. He’s not an awful play, but Carolina’s D has played much better over the past two weeks. If they held Drew Brees in check, which they did, that doesn’t make me very confident in putting Cutler in there against them.
• I know I usually have three extra QB it ‘ems, but no one really stands out. Anyone else I put would be rather obvious, so just pose any specific questions in the comment section.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em RB: Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, Kansas City (at Indianapolis)

Coming into Week 4, the Colts were 28th in the NFL against the rush (141.3 yards per game) and they had given up 3 TDs (though, granted, all came in Week 1 against the Texans). As I write this it’s halftime of the Colts game against the Jags, and Jacksonville has 124 rushing yards and two rushing TDs. (Note: they finished with 174 yards on the ground.) Remember that neither the Giants nor the Broncos run the ball especially well, so Indy’s seeming improvement against the run was more of a mirage than a trend.

Kansas City, however, is a very good running team and I think both of their backs have value this week. Jamaal Charles is a big play threat and the Colts give up big plays on the ground. Thomas Jones is the one who gets the most carries, and the old man will be rested after the bye week. With Matt Cassel still struggling and the Colts very good against the pass, Todd Haley will undoubtedly want to ride his backs in this one. Take advantage.

Jamaal Charles fantasy football Week 5 projection: 75 yards rushing, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD

Thomas Jones fantasy football Week 5 projection: 70 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 5:

• See what I mean about DeAngelo Williams? Just be patient people. He finally scored in Week 4 and I like him to have another solid day against the Bears, despite their strong start against the run this year. Much of that has to do with matchups and Williams is still a guy who needs to be started. His teammate Jonathan Stewart has now scored two weeks in a row and isn’t a horrible start either if you’re hurt by the bye week.
• I know that you are probably frustrated by Cedric Benson‘s up and down production so far this year. I know I expected more out of him in Week 4. The Bengals play the Bucs this week, however, a team that is much better against the pass than they are the run. I think Benson can take advantage.
• The demise of Mike Tolbert was vastly overrated…by me. I thought Ryan Mathews would get more touches once he got healthy, but Tolbert dominated the first half against the Cardinals and ended up with 7 more carries than the rookie on the day. Oakland is an inviting matchup in Week 5. Both guys have strong value.

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see my sit ‘em RB for Week 5, my start/sit picks at WR, TE, and Defense, and to pose your start/sit questions for Week 5…all of which will be answered before kickoff.