NFL Quarterback Power Rankings

No position in the NFL is more highly scrutinized, debated, and discussed than the quarterback. It’s impossible to build a consistent winner without one (and people who follow the Cleveland Browns would tell you that it’s impossible to find one period).

After this weekend’s Packers loss to the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers was a popular topic of conversation on Twitter. I made the comment that he has not shown me that he has the “it” that people always talk about when it comes to QBs. Some agreed and some disagreed, but it got me thinking about where Rodgers falls in relation to today’s crop of QBs.

Thus, I set out to rank the quarterbacks currently holding starting NFL gigs, taking into account their current age and skill level, future potential, past accomplishments, and the general confidence level I would have if that player was the QB of my team.

… Continue Reading

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice and Projections

It’s that time of the week again: time for your early look at Week 3 of the 2009 fantasy football season with this week’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em post.

As usual before we begin, it’s accountability time. Let’s see how I did in last week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em post:

• Start ‘Em Hits: QB Jay Cutler (236 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT); WR Terrell Owens (3 rec, 52 yards, TD); Green Bay Packers D/ST (31 pts allowed, 2 sacks, 2 INTs, Defensive TD)
• Start ‘Em Misses: RB Ahmad Bradshaw (37 yards rushing, 2 rec, 8 yards receiving); TE Robert Royal (1 rec, 13 yards)
• Sit ‘Em Hits: RB Julius Jones (11 yards rushing, 3 rec, -2 yards receiving, 1 TD); TE Jeremy Shockey (4 rec, 49 yards); Philadelphia D/ST (42 pts allowed, 2 sacks, 1 safety)
• Sit ‘Em Misses: QB Peyton Manning (303 yards passing, 2 TDs); Dwayne Bowe (5 rec, 56 yards, TD)
• Sleeper Hits: RB Correll Buckhalter (76 yards rushing, 1 rec, 30 yards receiving, 1 TD); Washington Redskins D/ST (7 pts allowed, 1 sack, 1 TO)
• Sleeper Misses: QB Shaun Hill (144 yards passing, 0 TD); WR Robert Meachem (1 rec, 11 yards); TE Vernon Davis (2 rec, 32 yards)

Obviously I am proud of my Cutler recommendation when everyone else was telling you to sit him, but there are a few valuable lessons that I was reminded of last week:

1. Don’t ever sit Peyton Manning, especially against a suspect pass defense like Miami. In hindsight, this pick was more with my heart (as a Dolphins fan) than with my head. With less than 15 minutes of possession, Manning still had a great night. Stars typically play well on the biggest stages, and I should have looked elsewhere for a top-line QB who might not have a great day rather than telling you to sit an all-time great.
2. Don’t pick any Browns offensive players until they show some semblance of competence on offense.
3. Perhaps Vernon Davis isn’t going to explode and become a superstar this year. Either way, Brent Celek is the other guy I was considering last week and he is quickly a becoming a weekly must start TE. Amends are made below.

All in all, slightly more hits than misses, but still work to be done. I take these recommendations very seriously and want to steer you in the right direction.

I’m mainly trying to get tuned up for the bye weeks, because that’s where start ‘em, sit ‘em advice and sleeper picks really become important. But let’s see if I can build on my Week 2 improvement and have closer to a perfect week in Week 3.

As always, the comment section is yours. Post any lineup or waiver wire question and I’ll answer it as soon as I’m able up until kickoff.

Now onto the start ‘em, sit ‘em picks for Week 3. 

Fantasy Football

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills (vs New Orleans)

I was high on Trent Edwards as a sleeper coming into the season and a lot of people laughed at me. Well after two games, who’s laughing now? 

Edwards has been solid so far: 221 passing yards per game, 4 TDs, and 1 INT. This week, he gets to go up against a defense that has given up a lot of passing yards this year (288 per game) but also gotten its fair share of turnovers (6 INTs).

Trent Edwards though, unlike Matthew Stafford and Kevin Kolb, will not be making his first career start against the Saints.

We know that New Orleans can and will score, and that the Bills will have to keep pace to have a chance. I already predicted that the Bills will cover the 5.5 point spread at home in this week’s TV schedule and point spreads post, so obviously I think they will do just that.

With Fred Jackson providing a solid rushing complement to Edwards’ sound decision making and outside playmakers (T.O. and Lee Evans), this Buffalo offense has been one of the more underrated units in the NFL through two weeks. 

Look for Edwards to get into a bit of a shootout with Drew Brees. He won’t win it — either in real life or fantasy — but he will put up points worthy of a starting spot in most leagues.

Trent Edwards Week 3 projection: 285 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Others I like in Week 3: Philip Rivers (vs Miami); Matt Schaub (vs Jacksonville); Eli Manning (at Tampa Bay); Joe Flacco (vs Cleveland)

Sit ‘Em: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (vs Pittsburgh)

So far in 2009, Carson Palmer has been pretty ho-hum. He threw for 247 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs in Week 1 against Denver, then rebounded somewhat with a 2 TD performance this past Sunday (but with only 185 yards and 2 INTs).

Many people expected Palmer to reassert himself as a top-10 or even top-5 fantasy quarterback this year. So far it hasn’t happened, despite the reemergence of the Bengals’ running game. 

This will be Carson Palmer’s first game against the Steelers since December of 2007 after missing most of last year with an injury. And though Troy Polamalu will still not be in the lineup for Pittsburgh — and Jay Cutler had a good day against the Steelers last Sunday — I’d like to see a little more consistency from the Bengals passing game before I throw Palmer out there against such a great defense.

Palmer may have a decent day, and I would not sit Chad Ochocinco, but there are other 2nd-tier QBs that you might also have that I like better, including: Matt Schaub (vs JAX), Aaron Rodgers (vs STL), Eli Manning (at TB), Trent Edwards (vs New Orleans).

Carson Palmer Week 3 projection: 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Others I don’t like in Week 3: Kerry Collins (at New York Jets); Brett Favre (vs San Francisco); Kyle Orton (at Oakland)

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Running Backs

Start ‘Em: Steve Slaton, Houston (vs Jackonsville)

There are some easy RB choices this week (look below in Others I Like) but I’m not taking the easy way out. I am a Steve Slaton owner, and others like me are probably wondering whether sitting Slaton is a good idea after watching him rush for 51 yards and not get into the end zone through the season’s first two games.

Start him. I am. And here’s why:

• Last year in two games against Jacksonville, Slaton rushed for 166 yards, had 135 yards receiving, and scored 3 TDs.
• Jacksonville’s defense has been overrated against the run for a few years now. They have already given up two rushing TDs in two games this year against the two worst rushing attacks in the NFL from 2008 (Indy, Arizona). Last year, they were 13th in the NFL against the run and gave up 14 TDs. Decent but not great, and I don’t think they are even that good this year.
• Slaton is due.

Houston knows they have to run the ball to be successful this year. Last week, they got their passing game going against Tennessee. This week, it will be all about the run. Slaton had tough matchups in Weeks 1 and 2 (Jets, Titans) but should find plenty more room to run this week.

Steve Slaton Week 3 projection: 95 yards rushing, 1 TD, 5 rec, 55 yards receiving

Other RBs — specifically, good ones who have struggled so far in 2009 — I like in Week 3: Steven Jackson (vs Green Bay); Clinton Portis (vs Detroit); Matt Forte (at Seattle)

Sit ‘Em: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (vs Pittsburgh)

Can you tell that I think it’s going to be a tough day for the Bengals at home against Pittsburgh?

Look, I’m a card-carrying member of the I Hate Cedric Benson Club, but even I can’t deny that he has been very good this year. He’s run for 217 yards through two games and has scored a TD. But Pittsburgh has one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses week in and week out, and they have already shut down fantasy studs Chris Johnson and Matt Forte in back-to-back weeks.

Why in the hell would a perennial fantasy stiff like Benson do what those two could not?

You want numbers? Here you go: Last year, Pittsburgh gave up 80.2 yards per game on the ground and allowed only seven rushing TDs all year. This year, they are giving up only 64.5 yards per game and have yet to give up a rushing score. Cedric Benson has a career average of 3.7 yards per carry and has scored a grand total of 13 TDs in 49 games.

No thank you. That was easy.

Cedric Benson Week 3 projection: 41 yards, 0 TDs

Other RBs I don’t like in Week 3: Thomas Jones (vs Tennessee); LenDale White (at New York Jets); Willie Parker (at Cincinnati); Larry Johnson (at Philadelphia)

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em: Derrick Mason, Baltimore (vs Cleveland)

Cleveland’s defense has actually not been as bad as you might think. It is the offense that has truly been putrid. The problem is that the offense’s inability to stay in the field has led to tired legs in the second half and big plays for the opposition.

With Hank Poteat looking absolutely incompetent covering the slot, Derrick Mason could have another good game against the Browns. Here are his last four outings against Cleveland, the first two of which were with Joe Flacco at QB last season: 9 rec, 136 yards, TD; 4 rec, 42 yards; 6 rec, 83 yards; 10 rec, 78 yards.

Not too shabby.

Mason is hit or miss in terms of touchdowns, but makes an especially solid play this week in PPR leagues. The Browns will give up a lot of underneath receptions, which is exactly where Mason likes to operate. Plus, Baltimore should get up early and be salting away a win in the second half, which means they probably won’t be going deep too often after the first couple of quarters.

Derrick Mason Week 3 projection: 7 receptions, 87 yards, 1 TD

Other WRs I like in Week 3: Torry Holt (at Houston); Braylon Edwards (at Baltimore); Lee Evans (vs New Orleans); Mario Manningham and Steve Smith (at Tampa Bay); Desean Jackson (vs Kansas City); Johnny Knox (at Seattle)

Sit ‘Em: Donnie Avery, St. Louis (vs Green Bay)

A lot of fantasy owners had high hopes for Donnie Avery on the heels of his breakout rookie campaign during which he caught 53 balls or 674 yards and 3 TDs. Through two games in 2009, however, Avery has only 7 catches for 50 yards.

This week, the Rams play a Green Bay defense that was shredded by the Bengals last week at home. Green Bay’s primary problem on D is their inability to stop the run, but they do have two solid cornerbacks in Charles Woodson and Al Harris that will make life difficult for Avery and Laurent Robinson.

For St. Louis to win on Sunday, Steven Jackson will need to be the first, second, and third options in the offense. I think Avery will see limited targets, especially with Robinson’s emergence (11 receptions, 141 yards, 1 TD on the season).

Donnie Avery Week 3 projection: 3 rec, 35 yards, 0 TD

Other WRs I don’t like in Week 3: Nate Washington (at New York Jets); Laveraneus Coles (vs Pittsburgh); Nate Burleson (vs Chicago)

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Tight Ends

Start ‘Em: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs Kansas City)

I should have listed Brent Celek here last week and taken advantage of his 8 catch, 104-yard performance. Alas, I did not; but I am righting that wrong this week.

Celek has been outstanding so far this year, catching no fewer than six passes through the Eagles’ first two games. Kevin Kolb, the likely starter for this Sunday’s game against Kansas City, clearly likes Celek and will throw the ball his way often.

And guess what? Kansas City sucks, which makes this a really solid matchup for Celek and his owners.

Brent Celek Week 3 projection: 8 rec, 79 yards, 1 TD

Other TEs I like in Week 3: Todd Heap (vs Cleveland); Dustin Keller (vs Tennessee)

Sit ‘Em: Benjamin Watson, New England (vs Atlanta)

I’m afraid fantasy owners are going to overrate Ben Watson for at least the first few weeks of the season. His Week 1 numbers will skew his cumulative totals and make otherwise sensible owners forget that he has caught only 58 passes over the past two seasons.

Watson was tremendous in Week 1, catching six balls for 77 yards and 2 TDs, but that was more of a fluky function of that game’s situation and a specific defense Buffalo had been employing that Tom Brady took advantage of in the waning moments of the game.

I expect Tom Brady to look deep early and often against the Falcons. Watson may catch a few balls, but there are plenty of better options who are probably available, but may not have the gaudy and misleading two week stats that Watson has put up so far.

Ben Watson Week 3 projection: 3 rec, 24 yards, 0 TD

Other TEs I don’t like in Week 3: Zach Miller (vs Denver)

Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Defense / Special Teams Units

Start ‘Em: Denver Broncos at Oakland

Denver’s D was a much-maligned unit heading the 2009 season, but thus far is the #2 ranked defense in fantasy. Granted, they played the Browns last week to help prop up the numbers, but they also held a pretty potent Cincinnati offense in check the week prior.

What I like about Denver’s D is their ability to pressure the quarterback. Elvis Dumervil alone sacked Brady Quinn four times last week. Sacks are a good way to balance out giving up a few points…but giving up lots of points shouldn’t be a problem this week for Denver.

Denver faces Oakland and JaMarcus Russell — the same JaMarcus Russell who went 7-24 last week against Kansas City. The Raiders are also without starting guard Robert Gallery, who is injured.

This should be an ugly, low-scoring game between two underrated defenses. Considering the Raiders’ porous QB play and Denver should be a solid start for at least one more week.

Denver D/ST Week 3 projection: 13 points or less given up, 4 sacks, 2 INTs

Other team defense units I like in Week 3: Philadelphia (vs Kansas City); Green Bay (vs St. Louis); Washington (vs Detroit); Baltimore (vs Cleveland)

Sit ‘Em: Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina

Dallas’ defense has been very disappointing so far this year. They have yet to force a fumble or record a sack. And while you might say that they are due, I’d rather not take my chances against an offense that has DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Steve Smith, no matter how much Jake Delhomme has struggled.

Truthfully, I came close to putting Jake Delhomme in the start ‘em column for this week. Dallas’ D is very susceptible to big pass plays, and Delhomme-Smith is still a lethal downfield combo that is searching for its first TD connection of the year. Delhomme played better last week, and has perhaps put his ungodly INT problems behind him.

Either way, you have better options than the Cowboys’ D in what will probably end up being a shootout this coming Monday night.

Dallas D/ST Week 3 projection: 27 or more points given up, 1 sack, 1 INT

Other team defense units I don’t like in Week 3: Buffalo (vs New Orleans); Indianapolis (at Arizona); Arizona (vs Indianapolis); New England (vs Atlanta); Atlanta (at New England)

Can you tell that I think you should take the over in the Indy-Arizona and Atlanta-New England games?

I’m going to try something new this week and let you the readers chime in with some thoughts regarding my start ‘em, sit ‘em predictions. If nothing else, this should give other readers more insight into what the majority opinions are, rather than just my own.

Which of Jerod's Week 3 start 'em recommendations do you agree with? (Select all that apply)

• WR Derrick Mason (15%, 104 Votes)
• D/ST Denver Broncos (25%, 177 Votes)
• TE Brent Celek (34%, 236 Votes)
• RB Steve Slaton (36%, 251 Votes)
• QB Trent Edwards (44%, 308 Votes)

Total Voters: 701

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Which of Jerod's Week 3 sit 'em recommendations do you agree with? (Select all that apply)

• TE Ben Watson (28%, 153 Votes)
• QB Carson Palmer (31%, 170 Votes)
• D/ST Dallas Cowboys (33%, 178 Votes)
• WR Donnie Avery (43%, 235 Votes)
• RB Cedric Benson (46%, 250 Votes)

Total Voters: 544

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That’s it for this week’s start ‘em, sit ‘em lineup advice and projections column. As I mentioned above, use the comment section to its full extent. Let’s get some good fantasy tips, Q&A, and discussion going and help everyone get prepared for their Week 3 matchups.

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* – Carson Palmer photo credit: Rick Stewart/Getty Images via DayLife

* – Brent Celek photo credit: 2 Minuted to Midnight Green

Packers Plagued By Penalties and Pressure In Loss to Bengals

Where did the high-powered offense go?

Where is this vaunted Packers defense?

For the second straight week, the Green Bay offense was inconsistent. The defense, which bailed the Packers out against Chicago, couldn’t stop the run in their 31-24 loss to Cincinnati Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field.

Bears castoff Cedric Benson looked like a Pro Bowler while gashing the Packers defense for 141 yards on 29 carries. It was pretty clear the Packers still have some issues against the run, and they’re still without first-round pick B.J. Raji, who missed his second straight game with an ankle injury.

The Bengals were also 9-of-14 on third down conversions as the Packers defense even allowed a third-and-34 conversion late in the second quarter.

Instead of punting from its own end zone, Cincinnati then had the ball near midfield. One play later Chad Ochocinco burnt Jarrett Bush for a 44-yard gain. That led to a controversial touchdown for Carson Palmer on a quarterback sneak.

The official who initially signaled for the touchdown had his vision of the play obstructed by Ochocinco. Although replays appeared to show that not only that the ball did not break the plain, but Palmer also fumbled as he raised the ball up over the heap of bodies.

Referee Ed Hochuli called it a touchdown, the first of two crucial mistakes he made. The second came in the game’s waning seconds.

With the Packers trailing 31-24 with 10 seconds remaining, Donald Driver caught his sixth pass over the middle at the Cincinnati 10. The Packers rushed to the line, and the ball was snapped with a second remaining, and before a pair of Bengals were able to get back on their side of the line of scrimmage. A flag was thrown, and the assumption was for offsides.

Instead, Hochuli’s crew ruled that tight end Jermichael Finley was not set and moved early.

Hochuli’s explanation was that time expired before the ball was snapped, which was false, but “even if the ball was snapped before time expired, there was a false start on the play, which requires a 10-second runoff. The game is over.”

The loss overshadowed a stellar performance from Charles Woodson, who picked off Palmer twice, returning one for a touchdown to give Green Bay a 21-14 lead in the second. He also led the team with nine tackles, seemingly being the only defensive player to show up to play.

Backup defensive backs Aaron Rouse and Jarrett Bush were both forced into more playing time because of injuries to starting safeties Atari Bigby and Nick Collins, who left early in the second quarter.

As poorly as the Packers played on defense, the offensive line was worse. Green Bay (1-1) managed just 89 rushing yards – 43 of which came on four Aaron Rodgers scrambles, and Rodgers was sacked six times. Five of those sacks came from Cincinnati defensive end Antwan Odom, who now has seven sacks in two games.

Odom abused the Packers line, especially after tackle Chad Clifton was carted off the field with an ankle injury. Whether he was lined up over Allen Barbre or Daryn Colledge, Odom was in Rodgers’ face the entire game.

Not helping Rodgers were the receivers, who dropped six passes as Rodgers finished 21-of-39 for 261 yards and a three-yard touchdown toss to Driver in the first. Driver led the Packers with six catches for 99 yards, but Greg Jennings was held without a catch.

The Driver score tied the game at 7-7 after the Bengals (1-1) scored on their opening possession. Palmer and Benson easily led them downfield, averaging 10 yards per play before a 5-yard touchdown pass to Laveranues Coles.

Woodson’s first interception set up a four-yard touchdown run from Ryan Grant, who struggled to find holes for the second straight week. He finished with 46 yards on 14 carries, a 3.3-yard average, and a crucial fumble that led to Cincinnati’s go-ahead score in the third.

The Packers special teams also struggled, giving up punt returns of 60 and 32 from rookie Quan Cosby that both led to scores. Mason Crosby also badly missed a 55-yard field goal.

Both teams played sloppy football. Cincinnati was flagged 13 times for 100 yards while the Packers had 11 penalties for 76 yards.

The Packers were a nine-point favorite, but the linemen were flat on both sides of the ball. With the St. Louis Rams and Steven Jackson next on the schedule, if the Packers don’t figure out how to stop the run, they could fall victim to another disappointing upset.

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* – Mike McCarthy photo credit: The Red Zone Report

Carson Palmer Ankle Injury Update, Week 1 Status, and Fantasy Outlook

One of the biggest questions this preseason, in both real and fantasy NFL circles, has been the health of Bengals QB Carson Palmer. His injury last year presaged a terrible season for the Bengals in which pretty much everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

But hopes in Cincy have been raised this year thanks to Palmer’s return, the reemergence of Chad Ochocinco as a player (apparently) focused on winning again, and an emerging defense that is better than it is given credit for being.

Of course, they do have Cedric Benson…but I just said that hopes had been raised, not that the Bengals are perfect.

Either way, the entire house of cards rests on the injured ankle of Carson Palmer, which has prevented the Aikman-like QB from playing in the Bengals’ last two preseason games. From the looks of it, via PFT, the AP, and Mr. Ochocinco himself, Palmer is “fine” and should be ready to go for the season opener on September 13th.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on Cincinnati Bengals 2009 Tickets and all 2009 NFL Tickets.

In fact, he may even play in the Bengals’ fourth preseason game this Thursday. 

From the AP report updating Carson Palmer’s injury status:

Palmer threw to receivers during the first 30 minutes of practice Monday, thefirst time he’s done that in nearly three weeks. The quarterback dropped back after taking snaps and moved around without problem on his sprained left ankle.

The only news that could possibly be better for Cincinnati sports fans would be the firing of Dusty Baker. But, actually, even that would not trump the healthy return of Carson Palmer to the football field this year.

So let’s assume for a moment that Palmer is healthy and ready to go on September 13th. How do you value this guy in fantasy drafts and/or trade talks?

As recently as last season (despite a less than stellar 2007, based on his own standards), Palmer was one of the top-5 QBs in fantasy. He appeared poised to enjoy a long, continuous tenure among Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees as those year-in, year-out consistently strong QBs that you can build fantasy winners around.

A quick look at Carson Palmer’s stats from 2005 and 2006 manifests this greatness:

 

• 2005: 101.1 rating; 3,836 yards; 32 TDs; 12 INTs
• 2006: 93.9 rating; 4,035 yards; 28 TDs; 13 INTs

 

2007 and 2008, however, were not nearly as productive:

 

• 2007: 86.7 rating; 4,131 yards; 26 TDs; 20 INTs
• 2008: 69.0 rating; 731 yards; 3 TDs; 4 INTs

 

As you can see, even before getting hurt last year Palmer was not playing to his usual level. Part of that had to do with a complete lack of a running game, as well as the fact that Chad Ochocinco seemed determined to be as big a pain in the ass as he possibly could.

So with Cedric Benson no doubt poised to continue churning out 2-3 yard stumbles where 5-10 yard gains are possible, and TJ Houshmandzadeh now catching passes from Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle, why should there be optimism that the ‘05-’06 Palmer will reemerge in 2009?

Honestly, there probably should not be quite that level of optimism, but still some optimism nonetheless.

Chad Ochocinco has brought a much better attitude to camp, at least it seems. In addition, TJ has been replaced by the steady Laveraneus Coles who, while no longer the burner he once was, is still a productive WR. And the surprise of Bengals camp has reportedly been a rejuvenated Chris Henry, who has worlds of talent but has never particularly acted like he possessed a brain. If he truly has matured, that’s still a pretty lethal WR trio for Palmer to air it with.

But without the steady Rudi Johnson providing consistent backfield production any longer, the Bengals will still be somewhat one-dimensional, which will obviously make them easier to defend and probably keep Palmer’s INT totals a little bit higher. His yardage will probably stay high, because the Bengals should throw a lot, but I don’t see quite the same TD:INT ratio that we saw during his immaculate 2005 campaign.

My Carson Palmer projections for 2009 look something like this:

 

• QB rating: 92-97
• Passing yards: 4,000-4,200
• Passing TDs: 27-28
• INTs: 17-19
• Rushing: Umm, none…as usual.

 

I would take the following QBs for sure before Palmer in a draft: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers. After that, I’d rate Palmer right there with Peyton Manning (who is a great QB and consistent but overrated this year for fantasy purposes people!!!), Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Ryan.

He is certainly worthy of starting, and you’re in a great position if you can get him as a backup, but I would expect him to be below the first tier. Draft him expecting 2008-level production, and then be pleasantly surprised if and when he surpasses it. 

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* – Carson Palmer throwing photo credit: Art Monk Football League

Fantasy Football: Which Ohio WR Will Be Better in 2009 – Chad Ochocino or Braylon Edwards

2008 was a terrible year for both Chad Johnson (err…Ochocinco) and Braylon Edwards. Both were coming off of career years in 2007 — Ochocinco set a career high with 1,440 yards while Edwards set career highs in everything while scoring 16 TDs — with great feats expected headed into last year. However, the two barely eclipsed 100 combined catches in 2008.

Unquestionably, many fantasy owners saw their teams struggle because of high drafts picks wasted on these two receivers.

As we head into 2009, a lot of fantasy owners and prognosticators are struggling with how to value Ochocino and Edwards in their drafts. Will they return to #1 WR status? Are they merely second-rate #2 or #3 WRs like they showed last year? Something in between?

And, most importantly, if you are ready to pick a WR and these two are left, who should you pluck off the draft board first?

It’s an intriguing question: Ochocino or Edwards? Certainly we all expect each to be better in 2009. But by how much and which player improves more? From my perspective — even though I’m a Browns fan — I would rather have Ochocino. In this post, I will list out a few of the reasons why.

1 – The QB position is crystal clear in Cincinnati

Wide receivers are volatile from year to year and week to week because their production is predicated in large part on the success of the guy taking snaps. Last year, Ochocino and the rest of the Cincy WRs were severely hampered by an injury to Carson Palmer that left the overmatched Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. This year, Carson Palmer is back and will be counting on Ochocino as his favorite and most experienced target.

It should be noted that Palmer is still dealing with some injury issues this offseason, and his sprained left ankle might keep him out of the team’s next preseason game. But the team expects Palmer to be 100% by opening day, and the positive is that the injury is not arm-related. Obviously if Palmer goes down again, and J.T. O’Sullivan becomes the starter, this is no longer an advantage for Ochocino.

In Cleveland, the QB situation is still muddy. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson entered the preseason entrenched in an all-out battle for the starting gig with no clear cut favorite. After two preseason battles (one won by Quinn, the other by Anderson) there still is no clarity.

Uncertainly at the QB position is never an auspicious sign for a WR, yet this is what Edwards has to deal with. I believe his value increases if Derek Anderson is the QB, as the deep ball will be more prevalent in the Browns’ offense, but the conventional wisdom has been that Quinn will end up getting the starting job. The whole thing gives me the headache, so who the hell knows. All it really means is that Edwards inherently carries more risk because of the QB flux in Cleveland.

2 – Last year was clearly an anomaly for Chad Ochocino, no necessarily so for Braylon Edwards

Look at Chad Ochocino’s career stats. Before last season, he had five straight seasons of 87+ catches and 1,270+ yards, plus 7+ touchdowns. His 2009 stats clearly jump on the page as the outlier. In looking at Braylon Edwards’ career stats however, his superb 2007 season is the one that jumps off the page as the outlier. 

Now, to be fair, Edwards barely had a fighting chance last year with the Browns’ offense proving to be absolutely abysmal. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn were shuffled back and forth as the starter, and there was no other consistent receiving threat to help draw coverage away from Edwards. But anyone who watched the Browns last year also knows that Edwards still should have had 65-70 catches (he had 55) and 1,000+ yards (he had 873) if he could just catch passes that hit him in the hands. Leading the league in drops — by a lot — is not the mark of a true #1 WR. Edwards now has an 80-catch, 16-TD season sandwiched in between two seasons in which he averaged 58 catches and 4.5 TDs.

So which player is the real Braylon Edwards? We know that he is extremely talented, and capable of making incredible plays. He just has yet to show this ability consistently, which makes him risky from a fantasy perspective.

We know who the real Ochocinco is based on his consistent track record — unless he has simply lost a step and is on the downside of his career, which I do not believe — but the statistical evidence is less clear with Edwards. Though Braylon has youth on his side, he has also been a #3 fantasy receiver for two seasons and a #1 receiver for one. That’s not a good ratio when the alternative is a guy with a full half decade of evidence that proves his ability to anchor a receiving corps.

3 – Ochocinco has more proven help around him to prevent consistent double-coverage

The Bengals lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the offseason, but brought in Laveraneus Coles to replace him. And though Coles at 32 is not the same player he once was, he still caught 70 balls and 7 TDs last year with an aging and injured Brett Favre as his QB. The Bengals also have a rejuvenated and possibly more mature Chris Henry (sleeper alert!  Seriously…) on the outside to provide a deep threat opposite Ochocinco. Plus, the Bengals running game sucks (Cedric Benson?  Please.) and their defense is unproven, meaning there will probably be a lot of throwing. With a solid three WR attack, Ochocino should find plenty of openings.

As for the Browns, they attempted a more long-term solution to their passing attack woes this offseason. Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicius are gone and Donte Stallworth is suspended, and in their place the Browns drafted two rookies (Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoai) in the second round and hope that the combo of Steve Heiden-Martin Rucker can provide a solid tight end duo. They also brought in Mike Furrey as a sure-handed slot receiver. While I love the long-term potential of the rookies, and think the Heiden-Rucker combo is underrated, there is no proven reason yet for teams not to double cover Edwards and make someone else prove they can produce consistently. Remember, when Edwards went nuts in 2007, Kellen Winslow was healthy all year and Joe Jurevecius provided a sure-handed option on the other side.

And seriously, If Braylon can barely catch passes when he’s wide open, how are we to expect a significant rebound when he’ll probably be pretty heavily covered again all year in 2009?

Plus, with Jerome Harrison and James Davis showing great potential alongside the aging Jamal Lewis, the Browns will be more run-oriented than the Bengals. I would think Ochocino would see more targets than Edwards as a result, obviously making his value higher.

In the end, I believe 2009 will be much better for both Chad Ochocino and for Braylon Edwards than 2008 proved to be. As for who will be better, other than his advancing age (Ochocinco will be 31 when the season starts, while Edwards will be 26) there is no reason not to like Ochocinco more for 2009. I think we will see numbers much closer to his averages from 2003-2007 (90-95 catches, 1,350-1,400 yards, 8-9 TDs) while Edwards will be somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 seasons (70-75 catches, 1,000-1,100 yards, 7-9 TDs).

Draft Chad Ochocino as a low-end #1 WR and feel good about it so long as Carson Palmer stays upright. Draft Braylon Edwards as a #2 WR and hope for — but don’t expect — a surprising resurgence to #1 status. If you are like me, and your goal is to minimize risk early, Chad Ochocino is the way to go if you’re in the position of deciding between he and Braylon Edwards.

Plus, who knows, Ochocino might just get kicker eligibility at some point this season. 

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* – Braylon Edwards drop photo credit: Waiting For Next Year

* – Chad Johnson v New England photo credit: PastaPadre.com

* – Chad Johnson / Carson Palmer photo credit: ESPN.com

* – Braylon Edwards v Cincy photo credit: SortsOfSports.com

Who is the Best QB in the AFC North?

by Jerod Morris

For those of you who read the Chicago White Sox – Chicago Cubs Tale of the Tape, you know that I am capable of nothing less than absolute objectivity. Well, with football season on the horizon, I have decided to extend my aptitude for objective analysis to a burning and pertinent NFL question: Who is the best quarterback in the AFC North?

To answer this question, let’s begin by first removing all Baltimore quarterbacks from the equation. Whoever starts for Baltimore, be it Troy Smith, or Joe Delaware, or Kyle Boller, or Brian Billick…it doesn’t matter. When one of the backups in your division (Brady Quinn) is clearly better than any of your starters, you do not get to enjoy being part of a debate like this.

So as we set out to decide who the best QB is in the AFC North, we have three candidates: Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, and Derek Anderson. Who is the best?

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