During the 1st round of the playoffs, every team that won looked extremely impressive and are fresh in peoples minds. However, there is a reason why these teams are playing in the first round. They are not as consistent as the teams that had byes.

People often bet on emotion, and what they remember last, and that’s why people lose and the Guru wins…like yesterday, when both of my Saturday divisional round picks were correct.

For the year the Guru is making the right pick 64% of the time against the spread.

Here is my breakdown of today’s Minnesota-Dallas game. Click over to NFLandCollegeFootball.com for my Jets-Chargers pick.

Cowboys vs Vikings(-2.5)

This is my favorite beat of the weekend. The Giants have owned the Cowboys for the past couple of years. Here is why: the Giants run the ball, and rushed the passer well. Why is that important? The Vikings can run, and rush the passer better the Giants. If you can put constant pressure against Romo, he makes big mistakes. Watch for this to be a close game in the fourth quarter and a mistake by the Cowboys seal the deal as the Vikings cover.

Finally, early on Wednesday morning, the 49ers and first round draft pick Michael Crabtree agreed to a deal that will get the WR on the field. The deal was worth $32 million over 6 years with $17 million guaranteed and up to $8 million in additional incentives.

If Crabtree makes the Pro Bowl in two of his first five years, the contract is void after 5 years.

I’ll Tell You This:

I’ve been begging the 49ers for weeks to just get this deal done, and now they have.

The team is already 3-1 without Crabtree and have been my NFC dark-horse since the beginning of the season. Now with Crabtree inked and Gore coming back to the line-up soon, this team moves officially into my “Contender” category.

2. Jets Acquire Braylon Edwards

How do you respond to a big loss against New Orleans, as well as mass media criticism of your rookie QB?

You go out and trade for a troubled, yet amazing WR.

The trade sent Edwards to the Jets in exchange for WR Chansi Stuckey, LB Jason Trusnik, a conditional 3^{rd pick in the 2010 draft, and a 5th round pick in the 2010 draft.}

I’ll Tell You This:

Edwards has been somewhat ineffective for the last year and a half in Cleveland.

After his assault on a friend of LeBron James, Browns’ coach Eric Mangini had to make a move.

This is a great move for both teams.

Mangini gets two more picks to build his team from, and gets rid of a “bad apple”.

The Jets get a very good player, who is excited about a fresh start, and may just turn things around with a new team, and a winning team. (See Randy Moss, New England Patriots)

3. The One Game Playoff Heard Round the World

It took twelve innings, and several ties and lead changes, but Minnesota would cap off what started as a seven game deficit to the Tigers with a  walk off single to win in the bottom of the 12^th inning.

I’ll Tell You This:

I have been down on baseball this year, partly because my Cubs have sucked, but mostly because I feel like this may have been the most boring season in baseball I can remember in a while.

That being said, this may have been one of the most exciting games I have seen in a while.

Congratulations to the Minnesota Twins, and good luck against the beast of the AL, the Yankees.

4. The Playoffs Begin

The MLB Playoffs started yesterday with matchups between The Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies, the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees, and the Los Angeles Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals, and today the Angels will face off against the Boston Red Sox.

I’ll Tell You This:

Here are my predictions for the entire MLB Playoffs:

Division Series

Philly will beat Colorado in five games.

New York will sweep the tired Twins.

The Dodgers will upset the Cardinals in 5 games.

The Red Sox will beat the Angels in 4.

NLCS/ALCS

The Phillies will defeat the Dodgers in 6 games.

The Yankees will defeat the Red Sox in 7 games

World Series Predicion

The New York Yankees will defeat the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games

5. You Tell Me This:

With future Hall of Fame QB’s in the league right now to the likes of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Favre:

You Tell Me This:

1. Who do you think is the best quarterback in the NFL?
2. Who do you think is the best quarterback of all time?

Please leave your comment in the comments section I would love to hear what you have to say!

That’s all for this week kids!!! We’ll see you next week!

I, myself, flipped the bird to the rest of my classes this week and took off for Dayton, OH, where I’ll be spending the holiday with my girlfriend’s parents (before a much-anticipated homecoming to St. Louis later in the week). But, just because the rest of the population is winding-down for Thanksgiving doesn’t mean that baseball GMs are taking a holiday. Certainly not John Mozelik, who continues to work the wire while ironing out the “fine print’ on a deal to bring Trever Miller to St. Louis.

This morning, Mo made an offer to another LOOGY who’s name has recently been coming up in the local press: Arthur Rhodes. Now, there’s no need for me to beat around the bush with this deal, so I’ll just tell you right upfront: I don’t like it one bit!

Rhodes is 39 years old, having made his debut for the Baltimore Orioles in 1991– back when little Ricky Reuben was spending most of his time staging epic G.I. Joe battles and long before statistics and cyborgs ruined baseball. In 2007, Rhodes signed a minor league deal with the Seattle Mariners, with an invitation to Spring Training, but ended up missing the entire season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery in late April. As a result, Rhodes became a free agent again in 2008, and resigned with the Mariners. He did not make the roster out of Spring Training, but was added to the active roster on April 14. On July 31, he was traded to the Florida Marlins for 23 year old, right-handed starter Gaby Hernandez.

Now, my problem with this deal is not the ability of Rhodes or his contract demands, but rather the age and injury risk he comes with. (One quick caveat: Rhodes topped out, salary-wise, at $3.7 million in 2006, but would have only made $1 million in ’07. If he’ll take a 1-year deal, at something like $1.5 million, I think there may be some merit to signing him.)

Last season, Rhodes pitched 35.3 innings between Seattle and Florida. He struck out 30 batters against 16 walks, and held lefties to a paltry .157/.253/.200 line against. His career line against lefties is also above-average as well at .221/.289/.325, so he’s a capable specialist.

Looking over his career, however, he’s mostly he’s been mediocre or worse (1999 in Baltimore comes immediately to mind as a low point). Now, when looking at a pitcher’s career numbers one statistic that I always like to use as a quick barometer of ability is ERA+ (or OPS+ for hitters). ERA+ is an adjusted earned run average that is normalized and accounts for home park effects. A stat like ERA+/OPS+, because it is normalized to the league average, allows for an “apples-to-apples” comparison of players from different eras of the game. (After all, pitchers were used quite a bit differently when Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax were throwing 20 complete games in the ’60s versus now, when Roy Halladay lead the league in ’08…with 9.)

Using those three above examples, you’ll see that when Gibby won his first Cy Young and MVP in 1968, his ERA+ was 258. When Koufax won his first Cy Young and MVP in 1963, his ERA+ was 159. And finally, when Roy Halladay won his Cy in 2003, his ERA+ was 145. In analyzing this data, what we can say is that each of these players were between 45-158% more productive than the average major league starter in their respective season (average ERA+ always = 100). Further, among these 3 Cy Young seasons, Gibson had the most productive, while Halladay’s was *less* productive (in context). ERA+ allows for this direct comparison in a way that a stat like ERA simply cannot — for example, we know Gibson was fantastic in ’68, but comparing his ERA to Koufax’s in ’63 or Halladay’s in ’03 is an exercise in futility that doesn’t even begin to tell the whole story of how these men pitched. The game of baseball, despite the efforts of many, continues to evolve. (Note: This same analysis applies to hitters as well, when looking at OPS+.)

Okay, now armed with our knowledge of ERA+, let’s return to our featured player. Arthur Rhodes has a career ERA+ of 105 over 17 MLB seasons. So, he’s just slightly better than the average middle reliever. His high mark for ERA+ is 242 in 2001 (when he struck out 83 hitters over 68 innings for that 116-win Mariners club), and his low is 86, which came in 1999 (when he walked 43 men and gave up 43 hits in just 53 innings of work). Truly, I believe that the takeaway from all of this is that, at 39 years old, and for 40 innings a season, unless he’ll come real cheap and for a short duration, it doesn’t make much sense to sign Rhodes to the deal he’ll likely require.

He’s about a year removed from serious arm surgery (hmm…have we heard this before in the Cardinals organization?), and he’s about to be over-the-hill. Now, I’m not ageist, but when a club invests (extremely) finite resources into a player, you’d like it to be someone who’s track record doesn’t include a major injury and spotty performance over the last 3-4 seasons.

Hopefully the right decisions will be made, though…as, the last time I checked, Isiah Thomas was NOT in the Cardinals’ front office.

…And quickly, a few final thoughts on Hot Stove murmurs overheard recently:

1. Derrick Goold threw out the name of Brandon Lyon as a possibility for the currently vacant closer spot in the Birds bullpen. Lyon will turn 29 in August of next season, and had down year in 2008, despite collecting 26 saves for Arizona: 59.3 innings pitched, 75 Hits, 44/13 Strikeout/Walk ratio, 4.70 ERA, 98 ERA+. In 2007 he was much better in a non-closing role, posting a 2.68 ERA and 176 ERA+. He made $3.125 million in 2008, and, while this is an educated guess, I think he probably is looking for around a 3 year deal.

2. The Cardinals do have internal options for the ‘pen, of course, in Chris Perez and Jason Motte. Both made their debuts for the big club last season, and pitched well (Motte, especially – small sample size, granted).

Perez will only be 22 at the start of ’09 (he turns 23 in July), and struck out 42 hitters in only 34 innings at the major league level (after flying through the Cardinals system in 2007 — he did throw 25.1 innings at Memphis earlier in the year.) Perez is, in all likelihood, the closer of the future, as he has an overpowering fastball that hitters just can’t catch up with. The biggest (legitimate) concern with him, however, is wildness. He walked 22 batters in the big leagues last season (34 IP), and walked 41 (!) over just 54.2 innings between AA-Palm Beach and AAA-Memphis in 2007. Having watched him pitch himself into some serious jams in the 9th, one can only hope that LaRussa will give him enough time to work things out — and that he does!

Jason Motte is one intimidating dude. He’s got a wild red goatee, was a former catcher, and reminds me of Brian Wilson (the SF Giant, not the Beach Boy) on the mound. Motte, like Perez, has a big league fastball that regularly sits in the mid-90s. He’s a bit older than Chris – he’ll turn 27 in June – but can be just as effective. At AAA this season he struck out 110 batters over 66.2 innings (26 walks). After being called up to the bigs, he pitched in 11 innings for the Cardinals, striking out 16 hitters against only 3 walks (and 5 hits), and looking just as dominant as that sounds.

Even with Perez’s control problems, I just don’t see how it could make any sense for this team to consider Brandon Lyon. He’s older than both of the club’s internal options, isn’t cost-controlled, and has nowhere near the ability to miss bats like either Motte or Perez can. I’ll take a few bumps along the way to pay two flamethrowers the league minimum to get three outs, thank you.

(Final note, even though you stopped reading 3 paragraphs ago: Should the club go with Perez and/or Motte for the closer/set-up role, they’ll discuss bringing Jason Isringhausen back. He’ll be 36 next September and plans to meet with team doctors next week to get clearance to begin upper-body work with his surgically repaired shoulder. Let’s hope there’s still plenty of space in the training room next year.)

Be safe and enjoy the time off everyone. I’ll be back soon with more Hot Stove banter. If you have an links or tips for the MLB offseason you’d like covered in this space, send them my way. Your thoughts in the comments are always read and appreciated.

Before getting to Miller, though, I thought you would be interested to know that there was an actual signing by the team this week…two signings, in fact: Charlie Manning and Ian Ostlund. Both are 29 year old lefties who have spent most of their careers in the minors.

Manning actually got his first shot in the Big Leagues last season, pitching 42 innings for the Washington Nationals, and held lefties to an opponent batting line of .203/.284/.392 (that’s: Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage, in case you’re wondering), while striking out 37. Unfortunately, he also walked 31 hitters.

Ostland, on the other hand, has no experience in the “Big Show,” having spent all 8 of his pro seasons at various levels of the Detroit Tigers system. In 2008 he had a nice season with AAA Toledo, striking out 77, while walking only 17, batters in 69.2 innings. At that level and his age, however, those numbers lose a lot of their shine. Hopefully the team can get a few solid innings out of at least one of these guys. The two signings resulted in Mike Parisi and his 8.22 ERA being outrighted. (Good times when he was on the mound last season.)

Alright, now let’s take a closer look at the “poor-man’s Brian Fuentes.”

Trever Miller will turn 36 years old in May of the coming season. He has 10 years of major league experience, most recently with Tampa Bay, and he was designated a Type B Free Agent after the 2008 season. I’m a bit hazy on the finer points of the Free Ageny rules, but I believe that when Miller signs with a different team this off-season, the Rays will be given a “sandwich” draft pick, between the first and second rounds of the June Draft. Before returning to Tampa Bay in ’08, where he had spent the 2004 and 2005 seasons, he pitched for NL Central Division rival Houston, where he struck out 102 batters (against just 36 walks) in 97 innings pitched over two seasons.

It is unquestionable that Miller is an above average lefty-specialist, or LOOGY, as they’re often called. His career line against left-handed hitters is .235/.327/.382, and he was even better than that in 2008, with lefties hitting just .209/.305/.308 against him.

One other thing is clear about Miller’s game: He’s learned how to strike out big league hitters. After Miller made the jump from the AL to the NL in 2006, his number of strikeouts per plate appearance jumped 10%. Now, that isn’t completely unexpected as pundits refer to the NL as the “Senior Circuit” for a reason (I think it’s because Jaime Moyer pitches there…), so one could expect his strikeouts to increase against weaker competition. However, he’s been able to keep that number of Ks/PA, at age 35, consistently higher than it was in his mid-twenties.

Also, and I promise this will be the last statistic I mention in this piece, Miller actually pitched his best baseball last season if you look at “FIP” – which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. This is a great metric that “helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.” The reason I like this stat so much is because it takes defense out of the Earned Run Average equation, thus not punishing or rewarding a hurler for the performance of his teammates. FIP is even more valuable when considering a Free Agent who, likely, will not have the same defense behind him that he did in the previous season. Anyway, all of this is to say that, in 2008, Miller’s ERA was 4.15, which is very average, but his FIP was 3.33, which is very much above-average. Unfortunatley, 2008 was the only season that Miller posted a FIP that was lower than his ERA, meaning that he’s actually been *slightly* worse than his ERA would indicate.

I think the final question, then, becomes: “Stew, you’ve written 3,000 words about various statistics and things I really don’t care about…Just tell me whether or not I should get excited about this guy!”

Ok, that’s fair. And my answer is…Yes, I think he would be a nice addition to the bullpen.

The Rays bought out his contract for $400,000 rather than exercise a $2 million option, but that’s mostly because they have plenty of young lefties, like J.P. Howell and phenom David Price, rather than a knock on his ability. The market for average-to-above average LOOGYs is generally old and practically non-existent, so even at 36, Miller is capable, and brings plenty of experience with him. He’ll probably command a 2-year deal, maybe around $5-6 million total, and I believe we’ll have him on the roster early next week.

Two last notes before I go watch the Rams get blown out by the Bears:

• The Giants are negotiating with Edgar Renteria. As a general rule of thumb, I prefer not to pursue any of the same players as Brian Sabean. If he wants to sign a player that’s a good enough reason NOT to sign him if you ask me. Jeez…that guy, Sabean. He’s like the anti-Theo Epstein.
• The Dodgers are going to let lefty reliever Joe Beimel leave. He had a great season in 2008, posting a 2.02 ERA in 49 innings. He doesn’t strike out as many guys as Miller, and does walk his share of hitters, but he is much younger at 31. Beimel has drawn interest from the Mets, Reds, Tigers, and Rockies, in addition to the Cardinals. MLBTradeRumors says he is looking for a 3-year deal.