First of all, I hope everyone is enjoying their shortened week. My guess is that this post will find many of our fair readers traveling across the country to reconnect with friends and family, binge eat, and, ideally, pound a case of beers on the couch while watching some NFL action on Thursday.
I, myself, flipped the bird to the rest of my classes this week and took off for Dayton, OH, where I’ll be spending the holiday with my girlfriend’s parents (before a much-anticipated homecoming to St. Louis later in the week). But, just because the rest of the population is winding-down for Thanksgiving doesn’t mean that baseball GMs are taking a holiday. Certainly not John Mozelik, who continues to work the wire while ironing out the “fine print’ on a deal to bring Trever Miller to St. Louis.
This morning, Mo made an offer to another LOOGY who’s name has recently been coming up in the local press: Arthur Rhodes. Now, there’s no need for me to beat around the bush with this deal, so I’ll just tell you right upfront: I don’t like it one bit!
Rhodes is 39 years old, having made his debut for the Baltimore Orioles in 1991– back when little Ricky Reuben was spending most of his time staging epic G.I. Joe battles and long before statistics and cyborgs ruined baseball. In 2007, Rhodes signed a minor league deal with the Seattle Mariners, with an invitation to Spring Training, but ended up missing the entire season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery in late April. As a result, Rhodes became a free agent again in 2008, and resigned with the Mariners. He did not make the roster out of Spring Training, but was added to the active roster on April 14. On July 31, he was traded to the Florida Marlins for 23 year old, right-handed starter Gaby Hernandez.
Now, my problem with this deal is not the ability of Rhodes or his contract demands, but rather the age and injury risk he comes with. (One quick caveat: Rhodes topped out, salary-wise, at $3.7 million in 2006, but would have only made $1 million in ‘07. If he’ll take a 1-year deal, at something like $1.5 million, I think there may be some merit to signing him.)
Last season, Rhodes pitched 35.3 innings between Seattle and Florida. He struck out 30 batters against 16 walks, and held lefties to a paltry .157/.253/.200 line against. His career line against lefties is also above-average as well at .221/.289/.325, so he’s a capable specialist.
Looking over his career, however, he’s mostly he’s been mediocre or worse (1999 in Baltimore comes immediately to mind as a low point). Now, when looking at a pitcher’s career numbers one statistic that I always like to use as a quick barometer of ability is ERA+ (or OPS+ for hitters). ERA+ is an adjusted earned run average that is normalized and accounts for home park effects. A stat like ERA+/OPS+, because it is normalized to the league average, allows for an “apples-to-apples” comparison of players from different eras of the game. (After all, pitchers were used quite a bit differently when Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax were throwing 20 complete games in the ’60s versus now, when Roy Halladay lead the league in ‘08…with 9.)
Using those three above examples, you’ll see that when Gibby won his first Cy Young and MVP in 1968, his ERA+ was 258. When Koufax won his first Cy Young and MVP in 1963, his ERA+ was 159. And finally, when Roy Halladay won his Cy in 2003, his ERA+ was 145. In analyzing this data, what we can say is that each of these players were between 45-158% more productive than the average major league starter in their respective season (average ERA+ always = 100). Further, among these 3 Cy Young seasons, Gibson had the most productive, while Halladay’s was *less* productive (in context). ERA+ allows for this direct comparison in a way that a stat like ERA simply cannot — for example, we know Gibson was fantastic in ‘68, but comparing his ERA to Koufax’s in ‘63 or Halladay’s in ‘03 is an exercise in futility that doesn’t even begin to tell the whole story of how these men pitched. The game of baseball, despite the efforts of many, continues to evolve. (Note: This same analysis applies to hitters as well, when looking at OPS+.)
Okay, now armed with our knowledge of ERA+, let’s return to our featured player. Arthur Rhodes has a career ERA+ of 105 over 17 MLB seasons. So, he’s just slightly better than the average middle reliever. His high mark for ERA+ is 242 in 2001 (when he struck out 83 hitters over 68 innings for that 116-win Mariners club), and his low is 86, which came in 1999 (when he walked 43 men and gave up 43 hits in just 53 innings of work). Truly, I believe that the takeaway from all of this is that, at 39 years old, and for 40 innings a season, unless he’ll come real cheap and for a short duration, it doesn’t make much sense to sign Rhodes to the deal he’ll likely require.
He’s about a year removed from serious arm surgery (hmm…have we heard this before in the Cardinals organization?), and he’s about to be over-the-hill. Now, I’m not ageist, but when a club invests (extremely) finite resources into a player, you’d like it to be someone who’s track record doesn’t include a major injury and spotty performance over the last 3-4 seasons.
Hopefully the right decisions will be made, though…as, the last time I checked, Isiah Thomas was NOT in the Cardinals’ front office.
…And quickly, a few final thoughts on Hot Stove murmurs overheard recently:
1. Derrick Goold threw out the name of Brandon Lyon as a possibility for the currently vacant closer spot in the Birds bullpen. Lyon will turn 29 in August of next season, and had down year in 2008, despite collecting 26 saves for Arizona: 59.3 innings pitched, 75 Hits, 44/13 Strikeout/Walk ratio, 4.70 ERA, 98 ERA+. In 2007 he was much better in a non-closing role, posting a 2.68 ERA and 176 ERA+. He made $3.125 million in 2008, and, while this is an educated guess, I think he probably is looking for around a 3 year deal.
2. The Cardinals do have internal options for the ‘pen, of course, in Chris Perez and Jason Motte. Both made their debuts for the big club last season, and pitched well (Motte, especially – small sample size, granted).
Perez will only be 22 at the start of ‘09 (he turns 23 in July), and struck out 42 hitters in only 34 innings at the major league level (after flying through the Cardinals system in 2007 — he did throw 25.1 innings at Memphis earlier in the year.) Perez is, in all likelihood, the closer of the future, as he has an overpowering fastball that hitters just can’t catch up with. The biggest (legitimate) concern with him, however, is wildness. He walked 22 batters in the big leagues last season (34 IP), and walked 41 (!) over just 54.2 innings between AA-Palm Beach and AAA-Memphis in 2007. Having watched him pitch himself into some serious jams in the 9th, one can only hope that LaRussa will give him enough time to work things out — and that he does!
Jason Motte is one intimidating dude. He’s got a wild red goatee, was a former catcher, and reminds me of Brian Wilson (the SF Giant, not the Beach Boy) on the mound. Motte, like Perez, has a big league fastball that regularly sits in the mid-90s. He’s a bit older than Chris – he’ll turn 27 in June – but can be just as effective. At AAA this season he struck out 110 batters over 66.2 innings (26 walks). After being called up to the bigs, he pitched in 11 innings for the Cardinals, striking out 16 hitters against only 3 walks (and 5 hits), and looking just as dominant as that sounds.
Even with Perez’s control problems, I just don’t see how it could make any sense for this team to consider Brandon Lyon. He’s older than both of the club’s internal options, isn’t cost-controlled, and has nowhere near the ability to miss bats like either Motte or Perez can. I’ll take a few bumps along the way to pay two flamethrowers the league minimum to get three outs, thank you.
(Final note, even though you stopped reading 3 paragraphs ago: Should the club go with Perez and/or Motte for the closer/set-up role, they’ll discuss bringing Jason Isringhausen back. He’ll be 36 next September and plans to meet with team doctors next week to get clearance to begin upper-body work with his surgically repaired shoulder. Let’s hope there’s still plenty of space in the training room next year.)
Be safe and enjoy the time off everyone. I’ll be back soon with more Hot Stove banter. If you have an links or tips for the MLB offseason you’d like covered in this space, send them my way. Your thoughts in the comments are always read and appreciated.
