Throwing a (Dawg) Bone to Eric Mangini

I’d been thinking about writing this post for the past week or so.

And after reading this on PFT this morning, I decided the time was right to at least try throwing a bone to embattled Browns coach Eric Mangini.

I figure if I don’t point out the positives now, before the rare glow of the team’s first victory fades into what I assume will be the overall blackness of our experience in Heinz Field this weekend, I might never get around to it. 

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Brilliant Braylon for New York in Miami

Last week at this time wide receiver Braylon Edwards was lanquishing in Cleveland, waiting for a ball to come his way from a sputtering offense, while searching for nightlife downtown and throwing down with a Friend of LeBron.

On Monday Night Football in Miami, Jets v. Dolphins, Number 17 — wearing his new New York Jets uniform — was brilliant, showing off the moves, leaps and most importantly, the hands that Browns fans had not seen since 2007.

Edwards had five catches for 64 yards, one touchdown and another called back on a challenge with the ball placed on the one-yard line. The Jets scored on the very next play.

Despite the loss to Miami, New York fans were buzzing about the Mark Sanchez to Braylon Edwards connection.

Magical.

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I’ll Tell You This: WRs on the Move, the MLB Playoffs, and Who is the Best QB in the NFL?

1. 49ers Barking Up the Right (Crab) Tree

Finally, early on Wednesday morning, the 49ers and first round draft pick Michael Crabtree agreed to a deal that will get the WR on the field. The deal was worth $32 million over 6 years with $17 million guaranteed and up to $8 million in additional incentives.

If Crabtree makes the Pro Bowl in two of his first five years, the contract is void after 5 years.

I’ll Tell You This:

I’ve been begging the 49ers for weeks to just get this deal done, and now they have.

The team is already 3-1 without Crabtree and have been my NFC dark-horse since the beginning of the season. Now with Crabtree inked and Gore coming back to the line-up soon, this team moves officially into my “Contender” category.

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Fantasy Impact: Braylon Edwards Traded to Jets, Chansi Stuckey to Browns

This morning the Cleveland Browns pulled the trigger on a deal sending former Pro-Bowler Braylon Edwards to the New York Jets.

The Cleveland Browns in return receive wide receiver Chansi Stuckey, linebacker Jason Trusnik, and two draft picks. Those picks are rumored to be a 3rd round pick and a 5th round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

So how does this impact the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, and your fantasy teams in 2009?

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Braylon Edwards’ Exit From Cleveland Five Years in the Making

Cleveland Browns contoversial wide receiver Braylon Edwards’ wildest dreams have come true. He is playing in New York, the city that never sleeps.

ESPN has reported, as chronicled just a bit ago by Jerod, that early this morning Cleveland Browns head coach Eric Mangini has traded Edwards to his old team, the Jets, just two days after Edwards was accused by a friend of LeBron James of cold-cocking him, resulting in a black eye and other bruises.

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Breaking News: Browns, Jets Agree to “Win-Win” Trade for Braylon Edwards

The Cleveland Browns have traded WR Braylon Edwards to the New York Jets for a package that — according to Jay Glazer — includes WR Chansi Stuckey, LB Jason Trusnick, and two draft picks.

More to come, but here is my initial reaction to this deal from a Browns perspective: I love it.

And from a Jets perspective: I love it.

I think this trade trade defines the term “win-win” as the Jets gets a very talented player who needed a new situation, while the Browns get rid of a player that fans never really embraced and a WR whose lack of focus consistently hurt the team and probably was not going to improve.

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Report: Braylon Edwards Accused of Assaulting Man Outside Nightclub

Yesterday afternoon, I trudged home from the Browns Backers watching party that I always attend on Sundays, lamenting yet another Browns loss and our horrid 0-4 record.

I drowned my sorrows in afternoon and evening football, did some blogging and tweeting, and went to bed early with the knowledge that I’d wake up one day closer to the Browns’ next victory.

It appears that Braylon “Hands” Edwards has other, more public means of dealing with his frustration.

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Browns’ Defense (Literally) Tries to Show Offense How to Have More “Punch”

If you have not heard, there is reason to believe that the Cleveland Browns might not be so “punchless” after all!

Of course, when the punches are coming from rookie defensive backs and directed at his own teammates, it’s probably not the kind of “punch” Eric Mangini and the embattled Browns are looking for.

Nonetheless, that’s what happened in the Browns’ locker room yesterday, as rookie DB Coye Francies did not take too kindly to a little rookie hazing.

Via the Plain-Dealer account of the fight between Coye Francies and his Browns teammates:

Browns rookie cornerback Coye Francies, the victim of a rookie prank, lost his temper in the locker room Friday, heaving a bucket of ice water at teammates and taking a swing at safety Abe Elam. 

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Francies first threw half the bucket toward Brandon McDonald, splashing him and scattering ice over the floor. Then, he tossed some at safety Mike Adams. “Welcome to the Browns locker room,” receiver Braylon Edwards shouted. 

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Browns-Vikings Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

I can’t wait for tomorrow.

The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year. 

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009’s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

Unfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

• Vikings-Browns Date: Sunday, September 13th
• Vikings-Browns TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on FOX
• Vikings-Browns Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland
• Vikings-Browns Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
• Vikings-Browns Point Spread: MIN -4
• Vikings-Browns Over-Under: 40
• StubHub: Browns-Vikings tickets as low as $40
• StubHub: all 2009 Cleveland Browns tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 Minnesota Vikings tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first. 

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

2008:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised. 

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the  top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

• The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
• The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive. 

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007’s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield. 

• Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
• James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
• The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity. 

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game. 

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

However, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

• Brandon McDonald led the team with five
• Sean Jones had four
• Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
• Mike Adams had two
• Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing. 

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season. 

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

• Browns-Vikings Preview and Game Thread — (Dawgs By Nature)
• Take Browns and the 4 pts — (Cleveland Frowns)
• Browns-Vikings By the Numbers — (OBR)

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* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

Fantasy Football: Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Update: The Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em lineup advice and projections post is up.

Welcome to the first edition of what will be a weekly post here at MSF throughout the NFL season: start ‘em – sit ‘em lineup advice for your fantasy football rosters.

We all know how important overall position rankings are for valuing players on draft day. Typically there are pretty clear tiers of players at each position. Making sure that you get players in certain tiers at appropriate draft positions is a key to maximizing value.

But — and it’s an important but — as you go through the season, weekly values can fluctuate based on a player’s injury, a teammate’s injury, and the opponent for that week.

For a guy like Drew Brees, or most guys picked in the first two or three rounds, it will rarely matter. You lock these guys into your starting lineups and count on them to anchor your team.

For mid- and late-round guys, however, the players who may fill out your #2 RB / WR positions or your flex spot, keeping an eye on fluctuations in expected value on a week-by-week basis is important.

That’s the goal of this post and will be the goal every week.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on all NFL tickets or College Football tickets.

I won’t tell you to start Drew Brees; you know that. And if you don’t know that, there is a good chance that you are wasting your time doing research because your team is doomed with your Kotite-level leadership.

On the other hand, maybe you waited to get a QB and your choices are Joe Flacco and Eli Manning. Neither is a clear-cut weekly starter, but will have particular matchups throughout the year that you will want to leverage or avoid.

Please take note: Just because a guy is a “start ‘em” doesn’t mean he should necessarily start for your team. If I say that David Garrard is worthy of a start, it does not mean he should play over Tom Brady or Philip Rivers. And just because I say that Matt Schaub may struggle, it doesn’t mean you should start Shaun Hill over him. Everything is relative and dependent on your roster. 

We’re all looking for an edge that can help us on weekly basis. I have eight teams this year and obviously want to win with every one of them every single week. This post is my way of using the research I’ve done to help you out as well.

So without further adieu, let’s get right to it: a start ‘em – sit ‘em highlight at each position other than kicker. And obviously we can’t get to every player in this post, so feel free to ask follow-up questions in the comments. I’ll respond as quickly as I’m able all the way up until Sunday morning.

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Quarterbacks

Start ‘em: David Garrard, Jacksonville (@ Indianapolis)

David Garrard was a major disappointment last year. He threw for only 15 TDs against 13 INTs coming off of his breakout 2007 season during which his QB rating was the third best in the NFL (102.2). I think we may have seen Garrard’s ceiling in 2007, but that does not mean he is not a capable starter in certain spots.

This week is a great matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, primarily because the most important component of the Colts’ D, Bob Sanders, will be unavailable.

I am not a big believer in the Jacksonville receivers, although I do think that Torry Holt will have sneaky good rebound season as the #1 option. Still, despite the Jags’ deficiencies on the outside, Garrard completed 64% of his pass attempts in the preseason and has rumbling bowling ball Maurice Jones-Drew ready to catch 5-6 passes out of the backfield.

I think the Colts will score a lot of points on Sunday and I think the Jags, led by Garrard, will score a bunch too. I don’t think Jacksonville goes into Indianapolis and wins the game, but I do think Garrard is capable of 2 TDs (rushing or passing) and 200+ passing yards. Indy’s D just isn’t that good and Garrard should be able to take advantage and get off to a good start in 2009.

Other guys I like: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle (vs. St. Louis); Joe Flacco, Baltimore (vs Kansas City); Shaun Hill, San Francisco (@ Arizona)

Sit ‘em: Matt Schaub, Houston (vs New York Jets)

I really like Matt Schaub this year, if he stays healthy. (It is required by law that anyone writing about liking Matt Schaub include the health caveat.) However, I’m not a huge fan of his for this week.

Why? I think the New York Jets’ defense has a chance to be among the top handful of defenses in the NFL with Rex Ryan at the helm.

Certainly we know that the Jets’ D will attack Schaub with a variety of blitzes all game long. This will be a good test as to whether Houston’s offensive line will be up to the task of keeping Schaub upright consistently. If they can, Schaub has a strong enough rapport with Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter to make any defense pay. I am honestly a little worried though that Schaub will get banged around by the Jets and that this could turn into a lower scoring game.

I think Schaub will get a TD somewhere along the line to Andre Johnson, but that might be it. If you have an alternative, this might be a good week to do a little wait-and-see with Houston and Schaub.

Other guys I don’t like: Whoever is starting for Kansas City (@ Baltimore); Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (vs Tennessee)

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Running Backs

Start ‘em: Willie Parker, Pittsburgh (vs Tennessee)

I chronicled in my Titans-Steelers preview the success that Willie Parker has had coming off of long layoffs either due to the offseason or injury. Parker did not have a good year overall last season, but did start out strong and also played well for a few games after coming back from a midseason injury.

Tennessee has a very good defense, but the Titans are now without Albert Haynesworth. This is a guy who dominated the middle last year while playing for a new contract and it may take the Titans a little while to shore up their front line without him. The Titans are, however, very good against the pass, forcing two INTs of Ben Roethlisberger in their meeting last year. 

I think Pittsburgh and coach Mike Tomlin will want to establish their running game early in the 2009 season and will take advantage of Parker’s fresh legs to do so. You may want to think about trading Fast Willie after Week 3 or 4, because he tends to wind down, but this is a week to take advantage of having him on your roster.

Others I like: Julius Jones, Seattle (@ St. Louis Rams); Felix Jones, Dallas (@ Tampa Bay); Beanie Wells, Arizona (@ San Francisco)

Sit ‘em: Chris Johnson and LenDale White, Tennessee (@ Pittsburgh)

I like both of these guys a lot for the season, just not playing at the NFL’s #1 run defense in their home field on the first night of their title defense.

I touched on the Steelers-Titans game yesterday and discussed the game these two teams played in Week 16 last year. Johnson actually scored a TD and the two combined for a 3.8 yard per carry average, which was 0.5 better than Pittsburgh allowed on the season. That game, however, was in Tennessee. Thursday night’s game is at Heinz Field.

Johnson was probably an early round pick for you, and if so, you may have no choice but to start him. For comparison purposes however, I would seriously consider starting a guy like Felix Jones this week because of the matchup. If you can’t stomach sitting such a high draft pick, I understand. But at least take a look at your options.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White will have 15 weeks to offer value against teams other than the Steelers. They might get a TD between them, but who will get it? There won’t be much to go around Thursday night and it will probably be split between them. Stay away if you can.

Others I don’t like: Pierre Thomas, New Orleans (vs Detroit…check his injury status leading up to the game and remember that the Saints have lots of options on offense, so they won’t force it to him if he’s not ready); Steve Slaton, Houston (vs New York Jets); All Cleveland running backs (vs Minnesota)

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Wide Receivers

Start ‘em: Braylon Edwards, Cleveland (vs Minnesota)

I know that I am often harsh of Braylon on this site, mainly because he killed the Browns and numerous fantasy teams on so many occasions last year. However, while I don’t think Braylon will equal his sterling 2007 stats, I do expect him to rebound in 2009.

This week’s matchup is a good one for Braylon in particular because the Browns are going to struggle mightily to run the ball against the Vikings’ Williams Wall (both are playing) and will obviously have trouble keeping Adrian Peterson in check. The Vikings just are not a good matchup for Cleveland as a team because they are proficient in the areas where Cleveland is weak: running and stopping the run.

I expect the Vikings to get up early and force the Browns, who will most likely have Brady Quinn at the helm, to throw a lot. Braylon Edwards is clearly the #1 option in the Browns passing game, and may be the 1st and 2nd option until another WR or a TE steps up.

He may not catch a high percentage of the balls thrown his way, but I think Braylon will lead the league in targets on Sunday and might even pick up a TD. Braylon will be up and down this season, but the big play capability is always there. In games where the Browns cannot run it he is going to see passes early and often.

Others I like: Desean Jackson, Philadelphia (@ Carolina); Torry Holt, Jacksonville (@ Indianapolis); Derrick Mason, Baltimore (vs Kansas City); Ted Ginn Jr, Miami (@ Atlanta)

Sit ‘em: Roy Williams, Dallas (@ Tampa Bay)

I guess you could call this a case of wanting to see it before I believe it.

As the season goes along, I do think that Tony Romo and Roy Williams will develop a rapport and that Williams can become a decent #2 WR or flex play, but I see Week 1 being much more about Dallas trying to establish an identity as a running team. Plus, with all of the 2-TE sets we’ve heard talked about for this season, I think Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett get their fair share of balls.

Williams has dealt with some injuries this preseason that have hindered his ability to work with Romo. Add to that his extreme struggles last year once he got to Dallas, and I’m just not buying in until I see it. 

Williams is the Cowboys’ #1 option outside, so he will get targets and could have a decent to solid day. But if you have guys like Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Santana Moss, or others at or right below their class, I would start them and wait for Romo and Williams to prove that they will be the connection everyone thinks they can be.

Others I don’t like: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (@ Baltimore); Lee Evans, Buffalo (@ New England); Bernard Berrian, Minnesota (@ Cleveland)

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Tight Ends

Start ‘em: Vernon Davis, San Francisco (@ Arizona)

I am really high on Vernon Davis this year, for a number of reasons:

1. Not unlike myself, he is freakishly athletic.
2. He seems to have bought into what Mike Singletary is selling.
3. The 49ers new offensive coordinator has pledged to get Davis more involved in the offense after Davis never saw eye-to-eye with previous OC Mike Martz, for whom he never became a prominent part of the gameplan.

Additionally, I am not a real big fan of Arizona’s defense.  Remember, the Cardinals did not have that great of a defense in the regular season last year. They are also primed to become the NFL’s annual victim of the Super Bowl loss hangover.

I think the 49ers will run the ball a lot and try to establish a short, ball-control passing game with the underrated Shaun Hill at QB. With Michael Crabtree still being a douchy holdout, and Josh Morgan / Isaac Bruce barely being decent, I think the 49ers have to get the ball into the hands of their most talented, game-breaking receiver. That is Vernon Davis, and I would honestly not be surprised to see him sneak into the top 5 tight ends this year.

Others I like: Kevin Boss, New York Giants (vs Washington); Anthony Fasano, Miami (@ Atlanta); John Carlson, Seattle (vs St. Louis); Jeremy Shockey, New Orelans (vs Detroit)

Sit ‘em: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (vs Dallas)

Call it a hunch, or even call it sour grapes after how Winslow’s tenure in Cleveland ended. Either way, I call it a bad matchup against the Cowboys on Sunday.

Byron Leftwich will be starting at QB, and he scares no one. The Buccaneers brought in Derrick Ward in the offseason, have Cadillac Williams back from injury, and still have incumbent RB Earnest Graham on the roster. I think the Bucs try to run early and often, and when they don’t run I think Leftwich looks to Antonio Bryant much more than he looks to Winslow.

The weakness in the Cowboys’ defense is at the corner spot opposite Terrence Newman and the safeties. If Leftwich is going to have success throwing, I think it will be to the outside. Bradie James leads a decent LB corps that should be able to contain Kellen.

Again, I’d make sure you have a solid replacement before benching Winslow. Just don’t be surprised if he struggles.

Others I don’t like: Zack Miller, Oakland (vs San Diego); Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota (@ Cleveland)

Week 1 Start ‘Em – Sit ‘Em: Defenses

Start ‘em: New England (vs Buffalo)

Much has been made about the demise of the impending Patriots defense with the losses of stalwarts Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison, and Tedy Bruschi. Certainly this amount of veteran leadership will be missed, but the Patriots have done a good job of bringing in young guys like Jerod Mayo and Brandon Meriweather whose time to step up is nigh.

In reality though, I don’t consider the Patriots a top 10 D anymore. They are a spot-start this season based on matchups, with a great matchup coming in Week 1. 

Buffalo is without Marshawn Lynch, T.O. has been dealing with an injured toe all preseason, and the Bills fired their offensive coordinator less than two weeks before the start of the regular season. Add all of that up, plus mix in the brilliance of Bill Belichick, and the Patriots make for a solid start on Sunday.

Others I like: Dallas (@ Tampa Bay); San Diego (@ Oakland); New Orleans (vs Detroit…because playing against rookie QBs making their first start is often a recipe for turnovers and TDs); Houston (vs New York Jets…same reason as New Orleans)

Sit ‘em: Miami Dolphins (@ Atlanta) & Atlanta Falcons (vs Miami)

Yes, I know that the Fins have Jason Taylor back, but I am worried about the Dolphins being able to stop Michael Turner and Matt Ryan at the same time. I think this game turns into a shootout on the fast track of the Georgia Dome and I would want no part of either defense.

For the record, I am also worried about the Bears D playing at Green Bay, which appears to be developing an offensive juggernaut. The only thing that kept me from listing them here is the ubiquitous threat of Devin Hester in the return game. We know that the early weeks in a football season are replete with big plays on special teams. If you aren’t confident in Hester taking one to the house though, I’d sit Chicago too.

Others I don’t like: Tampa Bay (vs Dallas)

So there you have it, the Week 1 Start ‘em – Sit ‘em. Hopefully this has assisted you with some of your lineup decisions, and remember to chime in with a question below if you have a specific decision you need help with.

Best of luck in Week 1 everybody!

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* – David Garrard photo credit: Reuters / Mark Wallheister via the San Francisco Chronicle

* – James Harrison / Chris Johnson photo credit: Getty images via ESPN.com

* – Braylon Edwards v Cincy photo credit: SortsOfSports.com

Peter King May Disagree, But There Are Reasons For Hope in Cleveland

There are plenty of reasons to expect the Cleveland Browns to not be very good and to not win very many games in 2009.

Chief among those reasons: they are, after all, the Cleveland Browns.

There is certainly a lot of Browns hate floating around as we approach the first week of the 2009 NFL season. Peter King of SI has predicted that Cleveland will finish with the league’s worst record, 2-14, and be a game worse than even the Detroit Lions. Take a a few minutes to sample the power rankings at sites like ESPN, FoxSports, and elsewhere. The prevailing wisdom seems to be that while the Browns are not quite the worst team in the NFL, they are not too far away.

So what the hell am I thinking trying to approach a Browns 2009 season preview with the goal of disproving the conventional wisdom? Am I totally off my rocker sitting down this morning in search of legitimate reasons for why Browns fans should have hope heading into 2009?

The answer to both questions is: I’m not sure.

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But here I am, and here you are, and damnit, at the end of the day this is the NFL we are talking about. If a Dolphins or Falcons or Ravens fan had set out to write a similar post before last season began, they would have been looked at as fools too. And we know how that turned out.

Consider the following:

• The Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens entered 2008 with new head coaches who had no head coaching experience. The Browns enter 2009 with a new head coach who actually has head coaching experience.
• The Dolphins and Falcons had been bad for a while. They were not a year removed from a 10-win season, as the Browns are.
• The Falcons and Ravens entered last year with first round rookie QBs starting. The Browns have one guy a year removed from making the Pro Bowl…who will likely be the backup. Brady Quinn, the Browns’ own first round, first-year probably starter at least enters this season with a couple of years of NFL experience under his belt.

Somehow, despite so many odds seeming to be stacked against them, the Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens all made the playoffs last year. Time and again in the NFL we see teams rise from the depths of low-to-no expectations to shock the football world by winning 9, 10, 11 games. 2007 in Cleveland was a prime example.

So no matter how bad you expect the Browns to be in 2009, remember that the Dolphins and Falcons were expected to be just as bad, if not worse, in 2008. And look where they ended up.

But simple, general, implied correlations such as what I’ve just done mean nothing. A Lions fan could say the same thing. So could a Raiders fan. It’s time to get specific. We all rationally understand, based on recent NFL history, that teams going from worst-to-first is not a freak phenomenon in the NFL.

For Browns fans — my long-suffering and frowning brethren who are desperately grasping for hope, for something legitimate to believe in heading into 2009 — what are some real and team-specific reasons why 2009 could be the season when we put the wait for next year on hold?

1 – Eric Mangini will see your 4-12 record, and raise you a playoff berth

Forgive the somewhat obtuse poker analogy, but this fact remains: Eric Mangini has already proven that he can immediately take a team from 4-12 (the Browns’ record in 2008) to the playoffs. He did it in 2006, his first year with the Jets, after New York had played to win the games in 2005 but did not win many under Herm Edwards.

Interestingly enough, the parallels to do not end there.

You may recall that in 2004, the year preceding the Jets’ 4-12 stumble and Edwards’ eventual ouster, the Jets went 10-6.  Similarly, as I know you will recall because I’ve already mentioned it, the Browns went 10-6 in 2007, the year prior to their 4-12 collapse in 2008 that led to the ouster of then-head coach Romeo Crennel.

So for Eric Mangini, this is already charted territory. The man has done it once, which should give Browns fans a legitimate reason to think that he can do it again.

(Note to all Browns fans: for the sake of our ever-diminishing sanity, let’s forget for the moment the fact that Mangini’s Jets yo-yo’d back to 4-12 in his second year, completing a four-year run of 10-6, 4-12, 10-6, 4-12 that we would obviously like to avoid.)

2 – Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley have nowhere to go but up

Let’s get one given about the 2009 Browns out of the way right now. We all know that this is a team still in need of more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Thus, the playmakers that they do have absolutely must play up to their capabilities this season.

Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are, unquestionably, two of the five most talented players on the Browns roster (along with the consistently solid Joe Thomas, Josh Cribbs, and Shaun Rogers…at least he was last year). Both Braylon and Kamerion were awful in 2008, despite already having proven that they can succeed at the NFL level. These two must play much closer to their potential for the Browns to have success in 2009.

And there is every reason to believe that they will do so.

Braylon Edwards is the player that I correctly pegged as the key to the Browns season in 2008 after we watched him struggle in Week 1 against Dallas. Sadly, I was proven correct as Braylon’s awful season was symbolic of the entire team’s failure last year.

But this is still a guy who was the 3rd overall pick in the draft, who has shown that he can produce yards and TDs in big numbers, and who should be entering his prime at 26 years old.

In 2007, we probably saw Braylon’s ceiling. In 2008, we probably saw his floor. In 2009, we just need to see a very good receiver, which Braylon is perfectly capable of being. And if Braylon is only very good — putting on hold, for a moment, any expectation of him being great — he should produce 75-85 catches, 1,200-1,300 yards, and 8-9 TDs. These are not unreasonable numbers.

And think about it: if Braylon had just been good last year, as opposed to decidedly awful, the Browns probably win one or two more games.

Auspiciously, Braylon has appeared better and more focused this preseason (3 rec, 51 yards, TD in the Browns’ most recent preseason game) and should be more consistent if the Browns pick one QB and stick with him.

He can’t be worse than he was last year, and that alone will make the Browns better.

On the other side of the ball, Kamerion Wimbley is, like Braylon, a former first round pick with worlds of talent. He is also, like Braylon, prone to inconsistency and had his worst season as a pash rusher last year. After a great rookie season in which Wimbley got 11 sacks, he fell to only 4 last season.

So like Braylon, we have probably seen Kamerion’s floor. I’m not quite sure we have seen his ceiling yet, however; and the combo of Eric Mangini and new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan may just be able to unleash it. The Jets and Raiders (where Ryan coached last season) were both in the top half of the NFL in sacks last year. Say what you will about the ability of Ryan’s Raiders to stop the run — they couldn’t — but they did a decent job of getting after the passer.

And he is, after all, a Ryan.

The Browns have Shaun Rogers and D’Qwell Jackson as the centerpieces of their quest to improve the run defense. And let’s be honest, it could improve and still not be very good. Kamerion Wimbley, on the other hand, is the centerpiece of the Browns’ pass rush, and there appear to be new strategies in play (such as moving him around more) to make him more effective.

Kamerion has too much talent to pick up only four sacks this year. If he can get back into double-digits, which he is perfectly capable of doing, the Browns’ defense will improve. An improvement by Kamerion alone won’t make the Browns defense great, and might not make it good, but it will at least make it better.

Assuming these two immensely talented players can play closer to their abilities than they did last season, it should make the Browns 2-3 games better. I suppose it’s fair to say that we should expect such improvement at our own risk, but it’s at least a reason for hope. 

Remember, we’re Browns fans. Hope is all we have.

3 – The pieces are in place for the Browns to be far more effective running the football

A lot of blame got heaped onto Derek, Brady, and Braylon for the Browns’ offensive struggles last season, and deservedly so; but the running game provided little in the way of backup. The Browns finished 26th in the league in rushing last year with a paltry 3.9 yards per carry. Unless you have a healthy Kurt Warner with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at receiver, that’s just not going to get it done.

Much was made of the Derek-to-Braylon and Derek-to-Kellen and Derek-to-Jurevicius combos that made the Browns’ 2007 offense so successful. But did you realize that the Browns also finished 10th in rushing that year and averaged 4.3 yards per carry?

With Brady Quinn likely to get the nod at QB, and two rookies plus a QB-turned-kick-returner-turned-wide-receiver likely to be among his top five targets on the outside, the Browns will have an inexperienced passing game in 2009 that will undoubtedly be a work in progress. Where we have the best combination of experience and talent is in the backfield.

And, as with the assumed improvement of Braylon and Kamerion, I think it’s safe to assume that the running game will be better in ‘09 — in large part because it cannot possibly be worse.

Jamal Lewis is a former freak-of-nature-type stud who could bowl over defenders and run by them at the same time. Now tumbling down the 30-and-over running back hill, Lewis lacks breakaway speed and can be painfully slow to the hole. What he can do, however, is churn out tough yards while wearing down defenders, block effectively, and provide much-needed leadership on an offense that is devoid of it.

I’ve heard whispers that the Browns should cut ties with Lewis because of his diminishing skills as a runner. That’s a myopic viewpoint. This will probably be his last year in Cleveland, but he will still be valuable, for the reasons mentioned above, even if his carries are reduced (which they should be) and he’s only a 3.8 yard per carry back.

Where my excitement and optimism about the Browns running game comes from is the presence and flashes of brilliance that we’ve seen from Jerome Harrison and James Davis. I’ve written at length about these two players and their potential for success in 2009 here and here, so I won’t repeat myself. Suffice it to say, as long as Eric Mangini and Brian Daboll make good on their promise to get these guys more involved, the Browns will be a better running football team in 2009.

Something else to keep in mind: while everyone focused on the Jets’ passing game and Brett Favre last season, they were surprisingly effective running the football. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington led a ground attack that finished 9th in the league in rushing.

And one more thing to keep in mind: Eric Mangini comes from the Bill Belichick school of coaching, where you focus on what players can do, as opposed to what they cannot do, and put them in positions to succeed and maximize their value to the team. One example that proves this is the Jets’ superb use of Leon Washington last year.

The previous Browns coaching staff always seemed hung up on what players could not do, as evidenced by their exasperating unwillingness to get Jerome Harrison consistent touches. The guy averaged more than 7 yards per carry! No one thinks he can keep that up with 100-125 carries, but he certainly is part of the solution to the Browns ground woes and I expect the new coaching staff to recognize this. 

[Editor's Note: As someone astutely pointed out to me after posting this, Romeo Crennel also came from the Belichick school of coaching.  And to that I say...he must not have listened very well. Hopefully Mangini was a better student.]

Time will tell how effectively Mangini and Daboll can direct the Browns offense, but the Jets’ success running last season plus the versatility of the Lewis-Harrison-Davis trio has me optimistic that we will be much better on the ground this year than we were last year. We sure as hell (broken record alert!) can’t be much worse. And that right there is another reason to hope for and expect improvement. 

Finally, here a few additional quick-hit reasons for Browns fans to have hope heading into 2009:

– Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald are playmaking, ball-hawking cornerbacks who have flashed the potential for both greatness (the home Monday night win over the Giants) and for punishing lapses in focus (the devastating Broncos loss). As they gain experience and enter their prime, improvement should be inevitable. Add to this the fact that Eric Mangini is a secondary coach at heart and in experience, and I think we can safely assume that one position for which focus should be less of a problem this year is the defensive backfield.

– Josh Cribbs, whose contributions to the team’s 2007 success were never fully appreciated in my opinion, looks energized this preseason. Obviously something needs to be done with his contract, but if Cribbs can stay healthy and not fight nagging injuries like he did last year, he will make the Browns better on offense and special teams.

– The Browns’ schedule, in theory, should be more palatable than last year’s. While the NFC North looks to be much improved this year, the AFC West has only one good team. And if Baltimore continues its trend of being good one year and then bad the next, it could provide two in-division opportunities for victories that were not there last year.

Just a quick glance at the schedule reveals the following eight games that are very winnable: at Denver, vs Cincinnati, at Buffalo, at Detroit, at Cincinnati, and the last three games of the year: at Kansas City, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville. If the Browns are indeed a better football team in 2009, and can find a way to just go 6-2 or 5-3 in these eight games, a 7-9 or 8-8 or *gasp* even better record is possible.

And those final three games, against teams that no one is pegging as playoff-caliber heading into the year, could prove valuable if the Browns somehow are in contention for a playoff spot.

So, in conclusion, Peter King can take his 2-14 prediction and shove it.

I like Peter King and read his Monday Morning Quarterback column religiously, and after last season’s debacle I suppose anything is possible. When your team is picked to compete in the AFC, you get five prime-time games, and then you fall flat on your face, it’s hard to really argue when an outsider shows a lack of faith.

But there are reasons for hope in Cleveland that many prognosticators, and even many fans, are not recognizing. Similarly, there were reasons for caution heading into last year that many prognosticators, and certainly many fans, turned a blind eye towards. The unexpected happened in 2007 and the unexpected happened in 2008, so who’s to say the unexpected won’t happen in 2009?

I realize that I may be setting myself up for another season of disappointment and heartache, but I’m beginning to get excited and optimistic about the 2009 Browns. I honestly have no idea if we will be better or if we will be worse, and the truth is that nobody does. This is the National Football League aka Not For Long aka No F’ing Logic, a league where the unexpected has ironically become the expected.

Eric Mangini has already proven that he can defy conventional wisdom and expectations in his first year with a new team, and the Browns have certainly proven they can defy conventional wisdom and expectations with their performance the last two years. But, alas, this is the Browns we are talking about, a team notorious for its consistent ability to suck the hope and optimism out of its fans by a seasons’ end.

So call it a coping mechanism, call it foolhardy positivity, or even just call it crazy. Either way, while the fresh-cut-grass smell is still emanating from another NFL season set to begin, with every team sitting there even at 0-0, I will once more jump on the bandwagon of optimistic hope and believe that the unexpected can indeed occur in Cleveland.

We’ll see. 

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* – Cleveland Browns helmet logo credit: Wikipedia

* – Eric Mangini photo credit: New York Post

* – Braylon Edwards photo credit: The Repository (Canton, OH) via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

* – Kamerion Wimbley photo credit: AP via DayLife

Browns Preseason Q&A with Barry McBride of the Orange & Brown Report

Over the course of the last week, I have had the pleasure of engaging in a Browns preseason Q&A with Barry McBride of the Orange & Brown Report. You can stay current with Barry’s latest updates on the OBR blog. As I listen to the third preseason game (Titans up 7-0 right now, Brady Quinn started) I will post the answers below for your viewing pleasure.

And remember, if you are a Cleveland Browns fan, there is no greater Cleveland Browns resource online than the Orange & Brown Report. So click over there and register for premium access. The best part: you get a 7-day free trial to realize how kick ass it is. We know that with Eric Mangini in charge, information will be hard to come by. No one will have more than these guys.

If you don’t want to do the premium access right now, at the very least follow the OBR on Twitter for the latest Browns news as it happens.

Also, follow these links to StubHub for great deals on 2009 Browns tickets or tickets to all NFL games.

Okay, I’ve shilled enough (but I do mean it, these guys are great). Onto the Q&A:

Q: I heard Gil Brandt on Sirius say that the reason the Browns have not announced their QB yet is because they are trying to trade Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson and do not want to hurt the trade value for either. Is there any truth to this, based on what you know? And how do you see the QB situation shaking out?

Barry McBride: Gil Brandt is obviously a great football mind and still well-connected in NFL circles. This isn’t a new thought, however. It’s something we’ve discussed on the OBR ever since Eric Mangini announced that there would be a quarterback competition back in March during the scouting combines.

At the time, there was a lot of speculation that the Browns would deal either Quinn or Anderson for draft picks, and it made no sense to reduce the trade value of either by declaring one of them to be the team’s backup. It’s certainly possible that one or the other will still be dealt, and that this is why Mangini is waiting, although there isn’t anything visibly percolating at the moment.

Another way to look at it is that neither quarterback has stepped up and grabbed the job by the throat. The Browns hoped that either Quinn or DA would make it a non-issue by their performance this Summer, but both quarterbacks continue to demonstrate their respective strengths and weaknesses as expected. Neither has really stepped their game up to the point where the job was clearly won, although Quinn still seems to have the edge.

One other thing to keep in mind is that Eric Mangini’s penchant for secrecy dates back to his time as a defensive coordinator working for Bill Belichick. He has said that one of the toughest things for him to overcome as a defensive coordinator is not knowing which quarterback he will be facing in the coming weeks. He may simply be holding off declaring a winner to make it harder for the Vikings to plan for the season opener.

Q: One of my thoughts regarding DA and Brady is that while Brady should, theoretically, be less prone to the boneheaded mistakes we’ve become accustomed to with Derek, having Derek as the starter would be better for Braylon. And with the Browns devoid of proven playmakers on offense, putting Braylon in the best position to succeed may be the best move for us offensively. Do you agree?

Barry McBride: I like how you’re thinking, but I’m not sure I’m fully on board.

The first thought that springs to mind is that the biggest challenge to Braylon Edwards’ success since 2007 has typically been Braylon himself. While undeniably talented, Edwards seems to suffer from lapses in focus that aren’t dependent on who is quarterbacking. He has memorable dropped touchdown passes that have been delivered to him from both Quinn and Anderson in the past, as recently as the first preseason game against the Packers when Quinn hit him in the back of the end zone.

If anything, Quinn’s softer touch with the football might help Edwards hold onto the ball somewhat, although Anderson’s ability to stretch the field obviously makes Edwards a threat on every play, as does Anderson’s sometimes stubborn desire to focus on getting the ball to him even when dealing with double or triple-coverage.

One other factor that suggests that Quinn might ultimately help Edwards is that it’s critical for the Browns to have credible #2 and #3 receiving threats, and a credible threat of runners catching passes out of the backfield as well. Anderson has a tendency to continually attempt to feed the ball to Edwards (and Winslow in past years), and Quinn’s tendency to go through his progressions quickly might force opponents to take the Browns’ other receivers far more seriously and help reduce the amount of attention that Edwards gets from opponents.

I suspect that we’ll ultimately really only know how Edwards would fare under a full season with Quinn at QB is to give that option a chance, and see how he does.

(As I am posting this, Phil Dawson just kicked a field goal. Browns close the gap to 7-3.)

Q: As a fan who is 1,000 miles away from the action, I can only look at stats and quotes in the paper to make a judgment. With QBs though, leadership, intangibles, huddle command, etc., are so important. Between Derek and Brady, who seems to have more respect from their teammates? Who “commands” the team better? Or have they not separated themselves in this regard either?

Barry McBride: I would give the edge here to Quinn as well, based on what I’ve heard through OBR reporters like Lane Adkins and Fred Greetham.

With some strong personalities on the Browns (as with every team), it’s critical that there not be a question about who is in charge in the huddle. As we’ve been told by players themselves, there’s no question when Quinn is on the field that he’s running the show. Although it’s never been said outright by his teammates, by extension, one can infer that Anderson may be somewhat less of a take-charge guy. I have to add, however, that Lane Adkins has relayed this year that Anderson’s approach in that department has taken a step up. He has a little more of a swagger about him than in past years.

Full disclosure: Someone reading the last two answers may conclude that I’ve got my mind made up about who I think would serve the Browns better in the long run. To that, I have to say, “guilty as charged”.

I was an advocate of drafting Quinn, have advocated giving him opportunities faster, and have been skeptical about Anderson ever since we got our first prolonged exposure to him during 2007 training camp. He’s clearly got tremendous athletic ability and potential that makes offensive coordinators salivate, but I admit that I still see the same quarterback from Oregon State highlight films: rocket arm, sprays the ball all over the field, and has a very high dependence on getting good protection and having receivers who will out-muscle defenders for the ball. That all came together to support him in 2007, and he was a Pro Bowler. It didn’t happen in 2008, and I don’t see it happening in 2009, either. On a team that has those attributes around him, Anderson could be very successful, but the Browns just aren’t there.

Q: Okay, well that about wraps things up. Wait…oh…there are 21 other starting positions on the Browns this year? Who knew?

What is the status of the contract talks with Josh Cribbs? When I watched the Detroit preseason game, it reminded me that we do, in fact, have a gamebreaker other than Dropsie Edwards. To me, especially with his improvement as a WR, Cribbs’ contract demands are not in any way outlandish. Are Mangini and Kokinis just playing a cat-and-mouse game with Cribbs and planning to sign him, or do you think they just are not convinced yet that he is worth more than he is making?

Barry McBride: Cribbs has agreed to come in, practice, and play despite lack of visible progress being made on his contract. Obviously, he’s a key component of the Browns special teams, but the team itself claims to be mystified as to how to price a return man (and obviously is not wanting to give Cribbs the same money that the Bears laid out for Devin Hester). The Browns are also, like most NFL teams, reluctant to tear up a contract with two years left. Although it should be noted that this reluctance rarely is in evidence when players are under-performing rather than out-performing their deals.

As luck would have it, the preseason has given Cribbs a chance to make a serious push for the #2 WR role which, if he wins it, bails both him and the team out by providing some more guidance about where Cribbs’ price should be, as well as a stronger rationalization for doing so. The Cribbs saga has yet to play out, but has already been marked by some of the worst mainstream media reporting I’ve ever seen, as both local and national media elements carve headlines out of virtually nothing more than having their previous assumptions about Cribbs’ intentions proven wrong.

Q: There have been rumblings recently that James Davis could start sneaking his way into more first team action. How patient will Mangini be with Jamal Lewis if Jamal continues to be slow to the hole and sports a 3.5-3.8 yard per carry average? And how does Jerome Harrison fit into this equation? Mangini seemed committed to getting Harrison the ball based on comments from early training camp, but Davis appears to have passed him over the last week. When will Jerome get back on the field and how do you see the attempts being split up between he and the rook?

Barry McBride: I don’t see Davis and Harrison as being much in conflict since they’re different types of backs. Harrison, although he gets more yards after contact than I would have expected, still primarily fits the mold of an NFL third-down back, whereas Davis is more of a between-the-tackles runner, like Jamal Lewis. I see Davis as spelling Lewis, with Harrison appearing more in third down situations. What Davis’ emergence means to Harrison is that he’s less likely to get opportunities to serve as an every down back, although I considered that to be somewhat questionable in any event.

If the interior of the Browns offensive line can’t hold holes open for longer than they have in the preseason, Lewis’ opportunities will go down, since Davis is quicker to the hole. This won’t make Lewis happy, as he still seems to firmly believe he’s most effective with 20-25 carries per game. While statistics bear that out for his career as a whole, it’s a dubious notion at this point.

Q: Real quick before we move to defense, what can Browns fans expect from the offensive line this year? Obviously Joe Thomas is an anchor on the left side, but will this year’s line be closer in performance to the 2007 unit or last year’s sieve?

Barry McBride: I wouldn’t expect 2007-level performance, simply because I don’t believe that Pork Chop Womack can perform at the same level that Ryan Tucker did during that year. We found out in 2008 how critical Tucker was to that unit and to helping out the undersized Hank Fraley and new right tackle Kevin Shaffer. It’s no coincidence, in my view, that the team’s best performance last year came in the one game where Tucker appeared. He has been on and off the practice field all preseason, and I don’t anticipate that he’ll be able to help take the right side of the Browns line up to the next level. Womack and John St. Clair have been steady and professional, although St. Clair has shown in the preseason a tendency towards ill-timed penalties.

Alex Mack has a very good shot of displacing Hank Fraley at center, but we’ve already seen him dealing with the rough NFL learning curve. In the AFC North, he’ll have to contend with some of the best nose tackles in the league. Expect mistakes to be made as Mack adjusts to the NFL.

Q: Braylon Edwards is the only “sure thing” in the receiving corps (except when wide open passes come his way, of course). How have the rookies looked? And is Mike Furrey (only a few years removed from a really good season in Detroit) an under-the-radar acquisition to could have 50-, 60-catch impact and play a QB-friendly role like what Joe Jurevicius was in ‘07?

Barry McBride: Furrey looks like a very good third receiver so far, which the team has missed ever since Dennis Northcutt went on his way. It’s doubtful that he could equate to what Jurevicius did (since Furrey will be out of the slot, and JJ was a #2 WR, in any event). It looks like he might be a smart fantasy football pickup late in the draft based on his performance so far in the preseason. He will probably get 30-40 catches from what I’ve seen so far.

Brian Robiskie has been a little bit disappointing since being hyped as a pro-ready NFL receiver, but such hype rarely proves true. Both he and Massaqoui are dealing with the usual struggles you see receivers suffer in their rookie season. At this point, Massaquoi may be higher on the depth chart based on his performance to date. He has looked very solid both in practice and games and should be in line for some playing time as the season begins.

Q: We know that everything defensively revolves around Shaun Rogers, with D’Qwell Jackson providing steady performance at LB, but it seems to me that for the Browns to to improve defensively, two things need to happen: Kamerion Wimbley needs to get to 11-12 sacks and fulfill the potential he showed as a rookie, and the Eric Wright-Brandon McDonald combo needs to become more consistent. Do you agree? And is there anything inherent in the new system/coaching staff that should help these players improve this seson?

Barry McBride: The Browns really needed to improve their game up the middle, and adding Eric Barton alongside D’Qwell Jackson seems to be a terrific move so far. Rod Hood has given Brandon McDonald a little push, but the team’s early scouting of corners for next year’s college draft convinces me that neither may be seen as the long-term answer there. A bigger question at this point is at safety, where the team has little depth behind starter Brodney Pool, whose ability to play is in question following last week’s game. Pool has a concussion history and the team has not revealed why he appeared to woozily walk off the field. If Pool is not available, the Browns defense will suffer.

Wimbley has a chance to perform better this year for a couple of reasons. The first is that the team has improved their consistency and depth in the defensive line, with C.J. Mosely providing a solid addition, and Wimbley needs that in order to have a lane to the quarterback. Secondly, the coaching staff has shown much more enthusiasm for moving Wimbley around from right to left, which is something Romeo Crennel rarely did. By making Wimbley’s position on the field less predictable, he has the possibility for greater success. It will ultimately be up to him to take advantage of his role in this defense.

Q: The NFL is notorious for having teams go from worst-to-first. In the AFC North, Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl champ, Cincinnati is starting to become a popular darkhorse candidate for improvement with Carson Palmer back, and though they seem to be terrible every other season and lost Rex Ryan, Baltimore is still Baltimore. Put on your optimists hat (if you can): why is not an outlandish idea for Browns fans to dream of an AFC North title? (Or is there simply no reason to do so?)

Barry McBride: It’s always possible, as long as meteors and comets are around that could possibly smash into Pittsburgh or Baltimore while their respective teams are practicing. Or, better yet, when the two face off in the same stadium.

Outside of that, it’s going to be a rough road for a Browns team that still needs to show that it can get consistent performance on offense and stop the run effectively on defense. Three possibly optimistic signs: (1) This team did go 10-6 just a couple of years ago, so there’s more talent than is obvious from last year’s 4-12 record; (2) Barring the loss of Pool. they could always get lucky with injuries, which is always the great unknown going into every season; and, (3) Mangini did manage to turn the Jets around during his first year as head coach.

An 8-8 season is not totally unreasonable, but I still believe that the team has a significant uphill battle ahead of them. They face six tough games within the division, and will have to have a large number of things go right for them in order to make noise in the AFC North.

Thanks for the great questions!!

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[Editor's Note: And we thank Barry McBride for taking the time to answer our questions.  Now that you've enjoyed the Q&A, hop on over to the OBR and sign up!]

* – Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson photo credit: Getty via FanNation

Fantasy Football: Which Ohio WR Will Be Better in 2009 – Chad Ochocino or Braylon Edwards

2008 was a terrible year for both Chad Johnson (err…Ochocinco) and Braylon Edwards. Both were coming off of career years in 2007 — Ochocinco set a career high with 1,440 yards while Edwards set career highs in everything while scoring 16 TDs — with great feats expected headed into last year. However, the two barely eclipsed 100 combined catches in 2008.

Unquestionably, many fantasy owners saw their teams struggle because of high drafts picks wasted on these two receivers.

As we head into 2009, a lot of fantasy owners and prognosticators are struggling with how to value Ochocino and Edwards in their drafts. Will they return to #1 WR status? Are they merely second-rate #2 or #3 WRs like they showed last year? Something in between?

And, most importantly, if you are ready to pick a WR and these two are left, who should you pluck off the draft board first?

It’s an intriguing question: Ochocino or Edwards? Certainly we all expect each to be better in 2009. But by how much and which player improves more? From my perspective — even though I’m a Browns fan — I would rather have Ochocino. In this post, I will list out a few of the reasons why.

1 – The QB position is crystal clear in Cincinnati

Wide receivers are volatile from year to year and week to week because their production is predicated in large part on the success of the guy taking snaps. Last year, Ochocino and the rest of the Cincy WRs were severely hampered by an injury to Carson Palmer that left the overmatched Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. This year, Carson Palmer is back and will be counting on Ochocino as his favorite and most experienced target.

It should be noted that Palmer is still dealing with some injury issues this offseason, and his sprained left ankle might keep him out of the team’s next preseason game. But the team expects Palmer to be 100% by opening day, and the positive is that the injury is not arm-related. Obviously if Palmer goes down again, and J.T. O’Sullivan becomes the starter, this is no longer an advantage for Ochocino.

In Cleveland, the QB situation is still muddy. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson entered the preseason entrenched in an all-out battle for the starting gig with no clear cut favorite. After two preseason battles (one won by Quinn, the other by Anderson) there still is no clarity.

Uncertainly at the QB position is never an auspicious sign for a WR, yet this is what Edwards has to deal with. I believe his value increases if Derek Anderson is the QB, as the deep ball will be more prevalent in the Browns’ offense, but the conventional wisdom has been that Quinn will end up getting the starting job. The whole thing gives me the headache, so who the hell knows. All it really means is that Edwards inherently carries more risk because of the QB flux in Cleveland.

2 – Last year was clearly an anomaly for Chad Ochocino, no necessarily so for Braylon Edwards

Look at Chad Ochocino’s career stats. Before last season, he had five straight seasons of 87+ catches and 1,270+ yards, plus 7+ touchdowns. His 2009 stats clearly jump on the page as the outlier. In looking at Braylon Edwards’ career stats however, his superb 2007 season is the one that jumps off the page as the outlier. 

Now, to be fair, Edwards barely had a fighting chance last year with the Browns’ offense proving to be absolutely abysmal. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn were shuffled back and forth as the starter, and there was no other consistent receiving threat to help draw coverage away from Edwards. But anyone who watched the Browns last year also knows that Edwards still should have had 65-70 catches (he had 55) and 1,000+ yards (he had 873) if he could just catch passes that hit him in the hands. Leading the league in drops — by a lot — is not the mark of a true #1 WR. Edwards now has an 80-catch, 16-TD season sandwiched in between two seasons in which he averaged 58 catches and 4.5 TDs.

So which player is the real Braylon Edwards? We know that he is extremely talented, and capable of making incredible plays. He just has yet to show this ability consistently, which makes him risky from a fantasy perspective.

We know who the real Ochocinco is based on his consistent track record — unless he has simply lost a step and is on the downside of his career, which I do not believe — but the statistical evidence is less clear with Edwards. Though Braylon has youth on his side, he has also been a #3 fantasy receiver for two seasons and a #1 receiver for one. That’s not a good ratio when the alternative is a guy with a full half decade of evidence that proves his ability to anchor a receiving corps.

3 – Ochocinco has more proven help around him to prevent consistent double-coverage

The Bengals lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the offseason, but brought in Laveraneus Coles to replace him. And though Coles at 32 is not the same player he once was, he still caught 70 balls and 7 TDs last year with an aging and injured Brett Favre as his QB. The Bengals also have a rejuvenated and possibly more mature Chris Henry (sleeper alert!  Seriously…) on the outside to provide a deep threat opposite Ochocinco. Plus, the Bengals running game sucks (Cedric Benson?  Please.) and their defense is unproven, meaning there will probably be a lot of throwing. With a solid three WR attack, Ochocino should find plenty of openings.

As for the Browns, they attempted a more long-term solution to their passing attack woes this offseason. Kellen Winslow and Joe Jurevicius are gone and Donte Stallworth is suspended, and in their place the Browns drafted two rookies (Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoai) in the second round and hope that the combo of Steve Heiden-Martin Rucker can provide a solid tight end duo. They also brought in Mike Furrey as a sure-handed slot receiver. While I love the long-term potential of the rookies, and think the Heiden-Rucker combo is underrated, there is no proven reason yet for teams not to double cover Edwards and make someone else prove they can produce consistently. Remember, when Edwards went nuts in 2007, Kellen Winslow was healthy all year and Joe Jurevecius provided a sure-handed option on the other side.

And seriously, If Braylon can barely catch passes when he’s wide open, how are we to expect a significant rebound when he’ll probably be pretty heavily covered again all year in 2009?

Plus, with Jerome Harrison and James Davis showing great potential alongside the aging Jamal Lewis, the Browns will be more run-oriented than the Bengals. I would think Ochocino would see more targets than Edwards as a result, obviously making his value higher.

In the end, I believe 2009 will be much better for both Chad Ochocino and for Braylon Edwards than 2008 proved to be. As for who will be better, other than his advancing age (Ochocinco will be 31 when the season starts, while Edwards will be 26) there is no reason not to like Ochocinco more for 2009. I think we will see numbers much closer to his averages from 2003-2007 (90-95 catches, 1,350-1,400 yards, 8-9 TDs) while Edwards will be somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 seasons (70-75 catches, 1,000-1,100 yards, 7-9 TDs).

Draft Chad Ochocino as a low-end #1 WR and feel good about it so long as Carson Palmer stays upright. Draft Braylon Edwards as a #2 WR and hope for — but don’t expect — a surprising resurgence to #1 status. If you are like me, and your goal is to minimize risk early, Chad Ochocino is the way to go if you’re in the position of deciding between he and Braylon Edwards.

Plus, who knows, Ochocino might just get kicker eligibility at some point this season. 

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* – Braylon Edwards drop photo credit: Waiting For Next Year

* – Chad Johnson v New England photo credit: PastaPadre.com

* – Chad Johnson / Carson Palmer photo credit: ESPN.com

* – Braylon Edwards v Cincy photo credit: SortsOfSports.com

LOTD: The Incredible Focus of Braylon Edwards and Bob Knight Cusses Out a Reporter (Video)

We have a dual Link of the Day today, without much commentary from me because tons of work beckons me this morning. But I wanted to most this before I get started.

First, our good friends over at Cleveland Frowns have a new post up in the wake of the NFL Draft that is another solid reminder why the Braylon Edwards Experiment in Cleveland has been such a roller-coaster ride:

LOTD: Hollywood Bray Update — (Cleveland Frowns)

“Last year I was with the Texans [the non-Playoff team who, coincidentally, beat the Browns at Cleveland Stadium in a game that the AP described as leaving the Browns "beaten, battered and bewildered," "their season in shambles"], and when we played [WHOOPED] the Browns, Braylon Edwards asked me between plays if we could talk after the game about modeling and acting.”

Whatever else this indicates, at the very least it shows that Braylon’s head is somewhere else than on the football game when he’s playing in the football game. If Braylon wants to go Hollywood, he should cancel his contract with the Browns and go do that, but the level of play in the NFL is too high for players — even players with Braylon’s talent — to play at the highest level (the level that Braylon is being paid to play at) with their minds not focused 100% on the task at hand.

And then, unfortunately, there is this new video of Bob Knight cussing out a reporter who dared to ask him about the chair throwing incident. Look, you all know that I love Coach Knight, but I don’t really have anything to say in his defense here. He just comes across looking a petulant bully…which is nothing new for him. I’m sure he’s sick of hearing that question about the chiar, but just give a polite, canned answer and move on.

Bob Knight does not do polite, nor does he do canned, which I guess is part of the reason why he is both loved and hated more than almost any other figure in the sports lexicon.

I mean, one time in college I set a stove on fire while boiling water to make mac and cheese. It was only one blip on an otherwise unblemished record of water boiling (up to that point…), but for the rest of my life I will hear about that story. It is what it is. You threw a chair. The price you have to pay is being questioned about it every now and again. Is that really such a big deal?

I grew up in Bloomington in the 80s and early 90s so I’ll never stop loving Coach Knight. I just wish he’d stop doing things like this, which shine a negative light not only on himself but on his supporters as well. Fast forward to the 2:30 second mark for the comment in question. (video of Bob Knight cussing out Netherlands reporter Found via You Been Blinded, via SportsBrite.)

Video: Bob Knight Cusses out Netherlands Reporter Who Asks About Chair

And a few more links:

• Early Thoughts on the 2010 NFL Draft — The Big Lead
• Craziness on ESPN.com – Unicorns? Rainbows? – Deadspin
• More Browns Draft Grades — Waiting For Next Year
• Dexter Fowler is fast — Josh Q. Public

Cleveland Browns First Day Mock Draft and Dream Saturday Scenario

The 2009 NFL Draft is set to start in a little over 5 hours as I begin writing this. Matthew Stafford has already been declared the #1 pick by the Detroit Lions, meaning the St. Louis Rams are now on the clock trying to decide between LTs Eugene Monroe and Jason Smith (or Mark Sanchez…really?) After the Rams make their choice, the Chiefs and Seahawks will be on the clock, followed by the Cleveland Browns.

With little new information emerging this morning regarding the Browns’ Saturday plans (not that any emerging information out of Berea would be believable anyway) there is only one thing left to do: try to predict what will actually happen today. And instead of telling you what I think will happen, I’m going to give you my own personal pie-in-the-sky dream scenario of what I’d like to see happen.

There are so many variables and trade possibilities out there, plus what seems to me like such a jumbled first round draft board, that trying to actually predict what will happen with any semblance of clarity seems pretty futile to me. I can certainly tell you what I hope happens, however.

First, let me link you to a couple of articles that have formed the basis for trades I’d like to see happen.

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Buy & Sell 2009 Cleveland Browns Tickets Online at Stubhub

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This morning, Mary-Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer provided her own collection of thoughts about the 2009 draft, the first of which I found myself agreeing with wholeheartedly:

The Browns should trade Braylon Edwards, even if they can only get a No. 2, No. 5 and a young prospect such as Domenik Hixon or Mario Manningham from the Giants. If they can secure the Giants’ first pick in the second round — the 45th overall — they’d have four picks in the top 50 and could transform the team with those players. At No. 45, they’d probably still be able to land a top-notch receiver or another immediate starter. Edwards needs a change of scenery and he’s heading into the final year of his deal. The Browns might as well get something for him while they can.

~ Four Things Mary Kay Cabot thinks about the NFL draft — (Cleveland Plain-Dealer)

I am not particularly enamored with either Domenik Hixon or Mario Manningham; I don’t think anyone is. However, seeing as how Manningham is a Michigan grad, only 5′11, and totaled a whopping 4 receptions as a rookie, while Hixon is from Akron, stands 6′2, has four years of NFL experience, and had 43 receptions last year, I think Hixon would be the more preferable of the two.

The real value, of course, would be the draft picks. And let me mention this: while I think it is conceivable for the Browns to be good in 2009 (this is the NFL after all, where miraculous turnarounds are a yearly occurrence), I think they should use 2009 as a year to rebuild with 2010 being the target for truly competing. Any significant success next year will be considered gravy in my mind; I want to see progress. I see too many holes on this team to expect a playoff run next year. But with an influx of good, young, cost-efficient talent, the Browns can become very competitive in 2010…I think.

Back to the Edwards deal. No, such a deal would not give the Browns another 1st rounder, but this appears to be a draft with a lot of value in the second round. Not only can you get good players, but for a much better price than if you pick them in the first round. For a team like the Browns, which is essentially remaking its roster, the 2nd and 3rd rounds are where you want to stockpile picks. (And the Browns do not have a 3rd-rounder this year.)

Need more convincing? The New England Patriots have the 23rd, 34th, 47th, and 58th picks this weekend. They have a pretty good track record of rebuilding through the draft. I’d be quite comfortable following such a model.

Dream Scenario #1: The Browns complete a trade with the Giants sending Braylon Edwards to New York for the Giants’ 2nd (#45) and 5th round picks, plus Domenik Hixon.

Next up, let’s discuss what the Browns should do with their #5 pick in the first round. Projections have been all over the board. I’ve seen mock drafts giving the Browns each of the following players: Michael Crabtree, BJ Raji, Aaron Curry, Brian Orakpo, Mark Sanchez, and others. What this tells me is that there is no absolute, perfect fit for the Browns at #5, and that there is little separating the top 10 picks from one another. Why then would you want to take someone there and pay him #5 money if you are not completely convinced the guy will be a great fit for your football team? I suppose you could argue that each guy would fill a specific need and that the Browns would have their choice among many great options at #5; I just don’t see that being more advantageous than trading back.

If there was a player at #5 that I personally thought could come in and make the Browns a playoff contender next season, or who is extremely likely be a future superstar, I’d be all for holding the #5 pick and taking him. I don’t believe that to be the case, so I am hoping to see the Browns trade out of the #5 slot.

But to whom?

Depending on who falls to #5, the Browns could have a variety of teams interested in moving up. The best case scenario for the Browns is to have Mark Sanchez sitting there, as teams are always willing to pay more to get a QB they covet. One of the teams most widely rumored to be considering a trade up for Sanchez is the Denver Broncos.

As with all rumors this time of year, there is information out there on both sides. I’ve seen it reported that the Broncos want to package their two No. 1’s (picks 12 and 18) for a move up to draft Sanchez. I’ve also seen it reported that it’s all a ruse and the Broncos just want other teams to think that they want Sanchez.

So who the hell knows.

I do know this: I do not want to see the Browns trade Brady Quinn and draft Mark Sanchez as the “quarterback of the future.” First, I don’t think Quinn has really gotten a chance to show what he can do, and we already traded picks to make him our first round selection a couple years ago. Plus, we have Derek Anderson, who at least has successful NFL starting experience in his past.

Second, I am not the least bit sold on Mark Sanchez as a future franchise QB, mainly because he’s an underclassmen going pro early with only 16 career starts. There is no way this guy will be ready to lead an NFL team for 2-3 years at the earliest, and there is simply too much unknown about him with only 16 games of tape to watch.

All that being said, why not split the difference with the Broncos if they do want to draft Sanchez. Take their #12 pick plus their 2nd rounder (#48) and give them the #5. This still gives them two 1st round picks, but the Browns get to move down into a more manageable draft slot from a contract perspective, they can still get a very good player with their first pick, and they add another mid-round selection in the value-rich 2nd round.

I don’t know what the infamous “draft value chart” would say about this trade, but I don’t care. The Browns need a lot of good, young players to build around. I’d rather increase my odds of improving the roster with two of the best 48 players in the draft as opposed to one of the top 5, especially when there seems to be so much debate over who the five best players really are in this year’s draft.

Dream Scenario #2: The Browns trade their #5 pick in the 1st round to the Broncos for Denver’s #12 pick and #48 pick.

Okay, let’s assess the damage here. If my two dream scenarios above were to come to fruition, here are the first-day picks the Browns would have (in addition to adding Domenik Hixon and a 5th rounder from the Giants):

• 1st round, #12 (from Denver)
• 2nd round, #36
• 2nd round, #45 (from New York)
• 2nd round, #48 (from Denver)

Contrast that with what they have right now:

• 1st round, #5
• 2nd round, #36
• A disgruntled and drop-happy Braylon Edwards

I don’t know about you, but I like the first scenario a lot more.

So, who could the four first-day picks turn into? Here is what I personally would love to see happen; and remember, this is a dream scenario, so while I’m trying to be realistic, forgive me if this sounds a bit hopeful:

#12 pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

With the draft seemingly devoid of CB depth, and the other CBs likely to be gone by the 36th selection, I like the value here. There are questions about Jenkins’ speed and whether or not he’d have to move to safety, but at the end of the day he’s a playmaker. The Browns need playmakers and smart football players in the secondary. Plus, while many Ohio State linebackers have underperformed expectations at the NFL level, many Ohio State defensive backs drafted in the first round have done well (Antonio Winfield, Nate Clements, Chris Gamble).

Wherever he ends up playing, CB or S, Malcolm Jenkins is a good, solid football player with the instincts to someday be great. It would be nice if Brian Orakpo fell here, but most mock drafts do not have him getting past the Bills at #11. Other options could include Beanie Wells, Brian Cushing, or pash-rushing ends like Robert Ayers and Aaron Maybin.

I say swapping the Wolverine Edwards with the Buckeye Jenkins improves the defense and gives Browns fans something to get excited about; but most importantly, they get a player good enough to step in, fill a void in the secondary, and play from Day One.

#36 pick: Paul Kruger, OLB, Utah

To be honest, this is hardest pick to predict. So much will depend on who the Browns draft in Round 1 and who unexpectedly falls to the second round.

Paul Kruger is who Todd McShay has the Browns picking at #36 in his mock draft, and I don’t see why not. The Browns need young but mature linebackers to team up with the solid D’Qwell Jackson, and Kruger seems like a solid fit. He is big (6′4, 263 pounds) and described in his Scouts Inc. profile as “a person of very good character. A hard worker and leader by example.” Kruger will be a 23-year old rookie as he served a two-year mission in 2005 and 2006.

I’m not sure this is necessarily a “sexy” pick that will have Browns fans yelping with excitement, but it does seem like a very solid pick and Kruger appears to be the type of hard-nosed, high-character, smart guy the Browns would want to rebuild build around.

I could see the Browns going in another direction and trying to pick a DB here if they don’t trade back and get Jenkins in Round 1. If they do get Jenkins, obviously I doubt they’d pick another DB. Other potential options here include DE Larry English, OLB James Laurinaitis, DT Evander Hood, or C Alex Mack, but again, it all depends on who falls.

#45 pick: Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State

I said this is a dream scenario, right?

What could be more of a dream for Browns fans like our very own Ryan Russell than getting rid of Braylon Edwards and bringing in two Buckeyes. I didn’t necessarily set out to have it happen this way, but Jenkins and Robiskie both appear to be solid values at their respective slots who fill specific needs for the Browns.

Robiskie is just a good, solid football player. I don’t know if he will ever be a Pro Bowl WR, but I think he can be a good to very good NFL wide receiver for 10-12 years.

With the Browns not having Braylon Edwards (in this scenario), Kellen Winslow, Joe Jurevicius, or (probably) Donte Stallworth, they obviously need a WR. Most likely, guys like Kenny Britt, Hakeen Nicks, and Percy Harvin will not be available at #36, which is fine with me. I’ve read various reports of red flags about each (ego with Britt, curious weight gains and losses with Nicks, and the infamous failed Combine drug test story, and others, about Harvin). Who knows how much stock to put into what could be disinformation, but I’d rather be safe than sorry.

With Robiskie, the son of longtime NFL coach Terry Robiskie, all you read about is his professionalism and production. That’s what the Browns need to build around. I can’t imagine a safer pick that fits more perfectly in terms of need than Brian Robiskie at #45. Another option here could be Mohamed Massaquoi from Georiga, who is rapidly rising up draft boards. I personally doubt he’ll be here with this pick, and besides, ew might as well pick the Buckeye, right?

#48 pick: LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh

Jamal Lewis ‘aint getting any younger, and Jerome Harrison is much better suited as a third down, change of pace type back than an everydown runner. Getting LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round, I think, would be a great value for the Browns and fill a specific need of an everydown back who can team with Jamal Lewis this year and then ultimately become the #1 ball carrier for the Browns.

McCoy appears to have no characters red flags, has good speed, and was incredibly productive during his two seasons at Pitt. In addition, having only taken two seasons of collegiate pounding, he should, in theory at least, have a little more tread on his tires than some other backs who played 3 or 4 years in college. Other options here could include SS Patrick Chung or DE Michael Johnson, all depending on how the picks fall.

It is obviously hard to know who will be available at the later round picks. Depending on who falls out of the first round, there could certainly be a better pick than Paul Kruger at #36. But trading back to get Malcolm Jenkins, and then landing Robiskie and McCoy later in Round 2 would, in my opinion, be a great first day haul for the Browns. Each guy is a potential contributor as soon as this season, and each guy is a solid building block for the future. At the end of the day, the Browns couldn’t ask for much more coming out of today.

Again, lets do a quick comparison. First, the results of my dream scenario, and then the results of the Browns standing pat and picking where they are currently slotted:

My dream draft scenario for the Browns:

• CB Malcolm Jenkins
• OLB Paul Kruger (or someone who unexpectedly slips out of the first round)
• WR Brian Robiskie
• RB LeSean McCoy
• WR Domenik Hixon
• plus the Giants 5th round pick.

Likely scenario if the Browns stand pat:

• LB Aaron Curry/DT BJ Raji/WR Michael Crabtree/OLB Brian Orakpo
• OLB Paul Kruger (or someone who unexpectly slips out of the first round)
• one more year with Braylon Edwards

For me, the first scenario seems to set the Browns up better for long-term success, although perhaps not as well for 2009. But I think the organization would be much better served by taking a long-term approach as opposed to throwing all their eggs in the 2009 basket. We threw all of our eggs into the the 2008 basket and it got us a 4-12 season, no 3rd round pick this year, and has compelled us to have to think in terms of rebuilding.

Fine. But let’s rebuild the right way: with extra draft picks that result in solid players and a roster with both depth and talent.

I don’t know the chances of the above scenario actually happening – probably pretty slim – but I do think it presents the kind of thinking that, in my opinion at least, provides the most likely road map to the kind of sustained future success that the Browns have never had since returning to the NFL.

I’d love to get your thoughts/comments below. Now it’s time to sit back and see what actually happens.