Big Names Who Could Disappoint

Andy Dalton

Dalton has burst onto the scene as a rookie, and would be a favorite to win Rookie of the Year if a certain Cam Newton was not doing even better than Dalton. Last week was tough for the Andy Dalton, and the Bengals as a whole, as the Steelers took care of business at home with a 35-7 win. Dalton went 11 for 24 with a touchdown, but sat out the fourth quarter due to the large deficit.

Things will only get harder this week as the Bengals are taking on the Texans. Houston’s defense is ranked third in passing yards per game (183.4) and is second in sacks (35). I would expect Dalton to be towards the bottom of the fantasy quarterback ratings this week, and sitting him would be a wise choice.

Steven Jackson

Jackson and the Rams are going up against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football, in a game that is scheduled for the wrong time on the wrong day. (Really NFL schedulers, this game is on MNF?)

Jackson has been held under 100 yards for three straight games, after having over 100 in three straight, and has not scored a touchdown since Week 8 against New Orleans. The 2-10 Rams have not been able to live up to high expectations for this season, and Jackson is a part of this. The Seahawks held him to 42 yards in Week 11, and will once again be held under 100 yards on Monday night.

Brandon Marshall

The Dolphins have been one of the hottest teams as of late, the only problem being that they lost their first seven games. Matt Moore has turned the team around, but Brandon Marshall has not had a major impact.

Marshall only has three touchdowns on the year, even though he is the Dolphins leading receiver. He has only had at least 100 yards in two of his last seven games, and he is going up against the Eagles secondary this week. I understand that the Eagles are playing well below their expectations, but the talent in their secondary is capable of shutting down talent like Marshall.

Under-the-Radar Players to Consider

In the past, I have always listed one quarterback in this category. This week I decided to leave out a quarterback because, with playoffs being underway, most teams already have a quarterback in place. Saying that Matt Moore could have a good game would not change someone’s mind about whether to start Moore over someone like Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers.

C.J. Spiller

Now that Fred Jackson is on IR, Spiller has taken over as the main running back for the Buffalo Bills. In his last two games, he has rushed for a combine 138 yards with a touchdown.

The Bills are going up San Diego and their 26th ranked rush defense, who allow over 131 yards on average. Spiller is also a threat as a receiver, and should be able to find the endzone one way or another.

Marion Barber

Barber is in a similar situation to Spiller, as his team’s leading rusher, Matt Forte, is injured. Barber is likely going to get the majority of the carries wtih Forte out, and will get a decent amount of points as a result.

Barber and the Bears are facing the Broncos, who own the 20th ranked rush defense in the league. The Broncos have been playing great defense as of late, but the Bears will be trying to establish a ground game due to Caleb Hanie being the quarterback. Giving Marion Barber a chance would be a safe bet this week.

Demaryius Thomas

Thomas was the main beneficiary of Tim Tebow primarily throwing the ball last week, as he had four catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns.

The Broncos seem to be trying to get Tebow throwing the ball more often, and Thomas is his most likely target. It also seems that Tebow has a few long passes per game, which was evident last week as Thomas caught one of these for a touchdown. Look for Thomas to have a big day, given that Tebow looks to throw more than run.

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Also check out this week’s start/sit column, our waiver wire pickups, and the Week 14 Sunday live chat.

So in this post I’ll do just that, providing analysis and recommendations for the key players you need to decide on before Turkey Day.

Quickly, before I get to the start/sit analysis for the Thanksgiving Day games, I want to tell you about a fun fantasy contest from our friends at Daily Joust. They are hosting a Thanksgiving Day Turkey Shootout that uses only players playing on Thanksgiving Day in the player pool, has a $5 entry free, and $300 guaranteed prize pool. Plus, not only is it a Super Joust Qualifier, but you can submit multiple entries.

I plan on joining. I’ll post my team later in the week. Are you up to the challenge? Click here. (And yes, if you sign up, it helps us out. But we wouldn’t promote it if we didn’t play ourselves.)

Now onto the start/sit picks.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Quarterbacks

Start em QB: Matt Moore, Miami (at Dallas)

Over the last three weeks, few quarterbacks not named Rodgers have been as consistently good in both real life and fantasy football as Matt Moore. He has six touchdown passes and has been intercepted just once. That’s solid, consistent production that we can somewhat count on.

Granted, he did all of this against Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo, so this matchup against Dallas will be the best defense Moore has faced in a month. But the Cowboys are better against the run than they are the pass, and Rex Grossman threw for 250+ yards and two TDs on them last week.

Moore isn’t an automatic start like the three QBs mentioned below are, but he is a solid play with upside in two-QB leagues or for anyone stuck with Joe Flacco.

Matt Moore fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 225 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT

Other start em QBs:

• Hopefully I don’t need to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. I haven’t looked at the other matchups, but those two guys may be the #1 and #2 QBs this week.
• It’s still November, which means that Mr. November Tony Romo is still a very good start. He’s hot, and while the Dolphins are playing well they haven’t faced a QB of Romo’s caliber during their win streak.

Sit em QB: Alex Smith, San Francisco (at Baltimore)

Alex Smith has been playing the best football of his career this year; and while I know the Ravens gave up a lot of passing yardage to Andy Dalton and the Bengals last week, they also picked Dalton off three times. I expect the Harbaugh Bowl to be a low scoring, physical affair; and I want no part of Alex Smith against a motivated Ravens defense playing at home in primetime against a team you know they won’t take lightly.

So even though Andy Bottoms likes Smith long-term in his Week 12 waiver wire pickups column, wait a week before deploying him in your lineup.

Alex Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 200 yards passing, 0 TD, 0 INT

Other sit em QBs:

• I don’t like Joe Flacco against the stout 49ers’ defense. I’d play him before I’d play Smith, but I’d hope to need neither.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Running Backs

Start em RB: Kevin Smith, Detroit (v Green Bay)

Well…that came out of nowhere.

Last Sunday during the live chat, I was telling everyone who would listen that I thought a Detroit running back was a good play because of the matchup against Carolina. Turns out I was right, but it also turns out I had the wrong Detroit running back. Rather than Maurice Morris, it was Kevin Smith who made his triumphant return to the Motor City and amassed 200+ total yards and three TDs.

Is Smith for real? I don’t know. Carolina is one of the most generous defenses to opposing running backs. That said, Smith is the guy now in Detroit, certainly until Jahvid Best gets back. Additionally, of all the defenses playing on Thanksgiving Green Bay’s actually gives up the most points to opposing RBs. Just ask LeGarrette Blount.

I wouldn’t get too excited about Smith…yet…but if you win him in this week’s most hotly contested waiver wire battle, feel good about deploying him on Thanksgiving.

Kevin Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 80 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Other start em RBs:

• Frank Gore looked healthy and spry last week, and he faces a Baltimore defense that gave up two scores to Cedric Benson. If Gore plays, you start him. It’s that simple.
• Do you know the Dolphins are the second stingiest defense in terms of fantasy points scored by opposing running backs? It’s true. Still, I’d start DeMarco Murray. He is the focal point of the Cowboys’ offense now, and I think they’ll put up numbers against Miami.
• I thought about making Ray Rice the sit ‘em RB, but I just can’t. Even though San Francisco has given up a whopping total of zero rushing touchdowns this year, they have had a game in which they allowed 14 receptions by Roy Helu. Baltimore has to get their best player involved on offense, and while I expect Rice’s numbers to depressed by the 49ers’ suffocating do, I do think Rice can have enough impact yardage-wise and catching passes to be at least a strong flex play.
• Reggie Bush has scored a touchdown in three straight games, and in the fourth game he had over 100 yards rushing. So he’s been productive, even though his yard per touch rate has decreased the last two weeks. While Dallas is very good at stopping opposing running backs, Bush remains a solid flex play because Miami is finding creative ways to use him around the goalline.

Sit em RB: James Starks, Ryan Grant, et al, Green Bay (at Detroit)

The two-headed running back monster of James Starks and Ryan Grant simply isn’t much of a monster at all. They rarely, if ever, score touchdowns. They don’t rack up great yardage totals to offset the dearth of TD production. And John Kuhn and BJ Raji vulture all the goalline carries.

Plus, Starks is dinged up, and the Detroit defense has been improving some when it comes to holding down opposing running backs. They are in the top half in terms of points allowed. I’d look elsewhere, even if Grant gets the starting job all to himself with Starks out.

James Starks/Ryan Grant fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 75 total yards, 5 receptions, 30 yards

Other sit em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter still has value long-term, especially as a handcuff for Frank Gore owners, but he doesn’t get enough carries as Gore’s backup to warrant starting.
• Maurice Morris…great last name buddy, but enjoy your parting gifts.
• Daniel Thomas is still the running back of the future for Miami, but Reggie Bush is the one scoring touchdowns. Against a stingy Dallas defense, Thomas is probably not worth playing.
• Felix Jones is back. *crickets* On six touches last week he delivered an “explosive” 22 yards. Keep him on your bench. DeMarco Murray is the guy in Dallas now.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Wide Receivers

Start em WR: Torrey Smith, Baltimore (v San Francisco)

You know I’m not big on rookie wide receivers, but I do warm to them later in the season when they prove they can be trusted. Torrey Smith is earning that trust.

Smith had a huge clutch TD against Pittsburgh that built his QB’s faith in him, and then popped for 6 catches, 165 yards, and a TD in a key divisional battle last week. I know that a 3-catch, 28-yard dud against Seattle is sandwiched in there, but Smith is getting the targets and hasn’t caught fewer than three balls since Week 6. There is some risk/reward with him as a deep threat, but the reward is worth it.

And don’t get too scared off by the San Fran defense when it comes to Smith and his buddy Anquan Boldin. Because the 49ers are so stout against the run, teams often take to throwing on them. The 49ers are actually in the bottom half of the league in terms of points allowed to opposing WRs.

Torrey Smith fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 4 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD

Other start em WRs:

• Michael Crabtree and Alex Smith are developing a nice rapport. He may not get into the end zone, but he’ll rack up at least 5-6 catches and 60-70 yards, with upside for more.
• With Miles Austin likely out again, both Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson are top-25 wide receivers.
• Jordy Nelson, even though it goes without saying at this point. Also, keep playing Greg Jennings. I know his last few games have been less than what we expect, but do you really want your Thanksgiving to be ruined because he popped for 100 yards and a TD? No, you don’t.
• I’m not quite sure where that 1-catch dud in Week 11 by Brandon Marshall came from, but it’s the only game this year he’s had fewer than four catches. He stays in your lineup.
• ‘Tron. Also Nate Burleson, who has two straight excellent games and faces the inviting Packers’ defense this week.

Sit em WR: James Jones, Green Bay (at Detroit)

Jones flashed his potential in weeks 3-7 when he averaged 3+ catches and 62 yards per game to go along with three touchdowns. However, in the three games since then Jones has caught just two total passes. This has coincided with Jordy Nelson becoming the most explosive receiver in the NFL, and though I don’t watch Green Bay games I have to think there is some level of causation to that correlation.

I know you’ll be tempted to play Jones because it’s Thanksgiving – and he certainly has TD potential any week, any play – but the targets just aren’t there to justify it right now; plus, Detroit is actually the second-stingiest defense for opposing wide receivers playing on Thanksgiving (after Dallas).

James Jones fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 2 receptions, 35 yards, 0 TD

Other sit em WRs:

• I don’t like any Dolphins receiver not named Brandon Marshall.
• Lee Evans is supposedly back for Baltimore. Whoop-de-doo. Torrey Smith stole his role as deep threat.
• Braylon Edwards let a touchdown slip right through his fingers last week. You can’t start him until he proves he can make an impact.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit Tight Ends

Start em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (v Green Bay)

The Chicago Bears give up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Do you know who is second? The Green Bay Packers. This makes Pettigrew an automatic start this week, as does his consistency.

No, Pettigrew has not been as explosive lately as he was earlier in the season, but he’s caught at least three balls in every game but one this year, and he remains a redzone target as he scored a TD last week.

Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Other start em TEs:

• The Ravens are actually the stingiest defense against opposing tight ends, so you’re forewarned; still, I’d start Vernon Davis. He’s becoming more and more involved in the passing game, and he has scored in two straight weeks. He’s not an automatic start, but unless you have a top-10 alternative I’d keep him in there.
• Jason Witten. ‘Nuff said.

Sit em TE: Jermichael Finley, Green Bay (at Detroit)

Remember when Jermichael Finley was supposed to be the next Antonio Gates? Since that time, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski have clearly passed him, along with Aaron Hernandez and even the likes of Jermaine Gresham. Finley has talent, but the targets and touchdowns just aren’t there. Plus, Detroit is pretty stingy to opposing tight ends.

Finley has immense potential every week, but it’s crunch time. You need guaranteed production from the tight end spot. I’d look elsewhere but hang onto Finley for depth.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 2 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TD

Other sit em TEs:

• Ed Dickson came out of nowhere to score two TDs two weeks ago against Seattle. That game is sandwiched between games in which Dickson averaged two catches and 15 yards. San Fran is solid against tight ends thanks to the marvelous Patrick Willis. You can do better.
• Anthony Fasano has scored four touchdowns over his last four games, but in three of those games he had only two receptions. Dallas is pretty stingy to opposing TEs. Again, you can do better.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Day Start/Sit D/STs

Start em D/ST: San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens

I like both defenses in this game. San Fran is #1 in the league in points allowed (14.5 per game) and Baltimore is #3 (17.6). Plus, neither team’s QB exactly inspires confidence. So expect a physical, low-scoring game, with both defenses looking to make the play that turns the tide and wins it.

If you happen to have both defenses, the edge goes to San Francisco because of the added dimension and potential Ted Ginn brings in the return game.

San Francisco 49ers fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 14 or fewer points, 3+ sacks, 2 turnovers

Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Thanksgiving day projection: 14 or fewer points, 2+ sacks, 1 turnover

Other start em D/STs:

• The Dallas defense isn’t an automatic start, not after giving up 24 points to Sexy Rexy and the Rexskins, but they are a decent play against Miami.

Sit em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (at Dallas)

I know that the Miami defense has been very good lately, especially last week against Buffalo, but this Dallas offense is light years better than Buffalo’s. Miami has faced Matt Cassel, John Beck, and Ryan Fitzpatrick during their three-game winning streak. This week they face at hot Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Laurent Robinson in Cowboys Stadium. That’s not favorable.

Miami Dolphins fantasy football Thanksgiving Day projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs:

• Is there anyone who doesn’t expect a shootout in Detroit? Though both defenses have weekly sack and TD potential, it’s a safe bet to expect 60+ points in this game. I wouldn’t want either D playing for me (but Green Bay would be the choice if I had to play one.)

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I’m looking back on my selections, and I just realized I told you to sit a wide receiver and a tight end in what could be the highest-scoring Thanksgiving Day game ever. I’m not re-thinking either suggestion though. The potential is there, but the production just hasn’t been evident on the field to make me trust either Jones or Finley. We’ll see how those picks work out.

And don’t forget about the Thanksgiving Day Turkey Shootout. Click here to enter and make your Thanksgiving Day of football even more exciting.

Jon will be here tomorrow with start/sit advice on the rest of the Week 12 action. The comment section is open for your questions. Try to keep this thread Thanksgiving-specific if you can…although I guess it doesn’t really matter.

Good luck and happy Thanksgiving to all!

Six team byes have been scaled back down to four this week, so fewer players will be sitting out of your matchups, but it will still likely necessitate at least one or two touch decisions; decisions you shouldn’t take lightly, because while this may be the middle of the season for the players, our playoffs are right around the corner and crunch time is upon us.

Before I get to this week’s stock picks, I invite anyone to comment on this question because the answer eludes me: will Joe Flacco ever become an elite quarterback in the NFL?

His polarizing play has people worried, especially me, so let me know in the comments section.

Now we will let you know what is good in this week’s stock report.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Stock Report: Stocks Up

Matt Cassel

Lol isn’t usually a term acceptable for sports blogging, but that is the only word someone can come up with when trying to describe the Dolphins’ pass defense.  Even losing Jamaal Charles for the season, Cassel’s production hasn’t skyrocketed nor plummeted, and he puts up good enough numbers to fill in for Stafford if you need him.

Philip Rivers

I promise that Rivers will have high stock until, well, who knows.  There is no way that he can continue to play this poorly for the rest of the year.  He threw for over 350 yards last week even though some unlucky interceptions came forth, but one of these days he is going to impress…hopefully.

Beanie Wells

The only thing that seems to be stopping Wells from becoming a top flight fantasy running back are his injuries.  During games that the Cardinals are competitive in, he can score you 14 to 20+ points.  The only problem with playing Wells is that the 1-6 Cardinals are out of games so fast that the running game gets put on the back burner and his abilities can get lost in the fold.

Michael Bush

This is somewhat of an obvious decision with the loss of Darren McFadden for the week, but Bush has always been a decent play.  His size allows him to be a goal line threat any time the Raiders are inside the red zone.  Playing against Tim Tebow should allow for many opportunities in Oakland.

Brandon Jacobs

Who knows why Tom Coughlin doesn’t give his 6-3 250 running back the ball more often, but this week should show some change with Ahmad Bradshaw out.  Jacobs has only carried the ball 10 times in a game once this year, but this is the week his production should benefit and score you around 10 points. He’s a solid fill-in for owners stuck without All Day or MJD this week.

Julio Jones

Has Julio lived up to the hype that was created when the Falcons threw the kitchen sink at the Browns to snag the rookie this past April?  The jury is still out on that one, but this could be the week that we see the young man have a breakout game against a Colts team that is so bad that almost nobody can watch.

Antonio Brown

The proof is in the pudding and this man has been performing week in and week out.  Keep things clear with simple logic this week: the Ravens probably won’t be able to go into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers on the road, and if Baltimore is going to shut someone down, it seems like Mike Wallace would be that guy.

Kellen Winslow

That first touchdown of the year can be tricky for tight ends but K2 got the job done.  The Bucs are going to have to keep up with the Saints if they want any success this week so plenty of targets could go to the veteran tight end.

Cardinals D/ST

30 point games have been the norm for Arizona, but playing against the Rams could be the perfect remedy.  Don’t think that the Rams can repeat their surprising Week 8 performance this week, so play the Cardinals’ defense with confidence.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Stock Report: Stocks Down

Matt Schaub

This week will tilt in the favor of Arian Foster when going against the Browns weak front seven.  Superstar in the making Joe Haden blanketing Kevin Walter or Jacoby Jones (filling in for a still-sore Andre Johnson) won’t bode well for the passing game, so pedestrian numbers are most likely to come for Schaub.

Joe Flacco

As much as I love FLACCO, his stock has to be down.  Two subpar games against poor defenses makes this game against the Steelers look like the matchup from hell.  Although it doesn’t look as if he is going to throw 3 interceptions with a few fumbles again, this game still just has problems written all over it.

Matt Hasselbeck

Most of his games have been productive this year, but it looks as if he might have hit the permanent wall.  Depending on the state of the Titans after this game, whether they win or lose we could see the end of Hasselbeck’s starting career and the beginning of the Jake Locker era.  The Cincinnati Bengals defense doesn’t play around with opposing quarterbacks so this could get ugly.

LeGarrette Blount

Blount has a low stock this week strictly because of circumstance.  The New Orleans Saints blitz the scoreboard no matter who they play against, so if the Bucs want to win, keeping up is the only option.  Blount doesn’t contribute much in the way of the passing game so don’t be surprised when he posts pedestrian numbers.

Ray Rice

We all know about the Pittsburgh run defense, so this matchup looks fairly predictable.  Actually the whole Ravens offense looks like they are in trouble this week.  Now we may get proven wrong, but until this unit as a whole steps up, the guys on defense are going to be the ones who win this team the majority of its games.

Brandon Marshall

Miami is hard to watch.  Regardless of the fact that Marshall is the best player on the field, he can’t like where this team is going.  Too many losses late can put a team’s focus in the dumps, and as history has shown, when Brandon Marshall doesn’t like the situation chances are he is going to do what it takes to get out of it.

Jordy Nelson

Aside from the big game every other week, Nelson just doesn’t seem to get enough looks on the offense.  2 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown is a productive week yes, but what happens when those 2 catches equal out to just 30 yards?  It’s big risk, big reward for Jordy owners, and this week’s matchup with the Chargers doesn’t grade out well.

San Diego D/ST

This is pretty much a no brainer here.  Look at the obvious reasons.  Aaron Rodgers is on the other side of the field and Phillip Rivers has had many recent struggles that give the opposing team a lot of opportunities to score. Play someone else.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Lee Evans has not played most of the season because of an ankle injury. However, the Ravens are confident he will return this season. When that will be is another story. He’s not quite ready yet.

Running back Peyton Hillis of the Cleveland Browns missed his third straight practice Friday and is looks questionable for Sunday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks. Hillis is dealing with a hamstring issue that has plagued him for awhile. Montario Hardesty would start in his place.

Mike Wallace and Rashard Mendenhall of the Pittsburgh Steelers are listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals.

AFC South

Sorry Andre Johnson owners. The Houston Texans wide receiver will not play against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai practiced on Friday but is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. It’s a prime time game, so the best you can do is check before the noon games on Sunday and hope they’ve decided before you set your roster. Grab Delone Carter or even Donald Brown if you’re counting on Addai, so you can make a last minute switch if need be.

AFC East

Miami Dolphins running back Daniel Thomas is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos. Thomas continues to suffer from a hamstring injury, but he is expected to play. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall is expected to play as well.

AFC West

Antonio Gates is expected to play Sunday against the New York Jets. This will be Gates first appearance since week 2.

NFC North

There are mixed reports for Chicago Bears wide receiver Earl Bennett. He is listed as probable. However, most reports note that his chest is still an issue he’s dealing with and that he will likely not play on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Jahvid Best has been ruled out of Sunday’s game against the Atlanta Falcons due to a concussion.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions. Jones is suffering from a strained hamstring. Tight end Tony Gonzalez, who was experiencing issues with his elbow, is listed as probable.

Tight end Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints was limited in Friday’s practice because of a sore ankle. He is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen is listed as probable, after dealing with a toe injury. However, he practiced in full on Friday should play Sunday against the Washington Redskins.

LeGarrette Blount, running back for the Tampa Bay Bucs, is out for Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears. Blount is dealing with a knee injury.

NFC West

St. Louis Rams quarterback, Sam Bradford, suffered an ankle sprain and is listed as a game time decision for Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Alright fantasy fans. Get to it! And good luck!

Regardless, there may be some surprises this week from a few highly unknown RBs.  This position may very well be the most important for owners in terms of touches for players, but on the professional level it is the most dispensable position, as almost anyone can succeed in the right situation.

If you are itching to see how Tim Tebow is going to follow up his breakthrough game in Week 5, then you are going to have to wait until next week, but if you want to hear a bunch of media chatter about him just turn on ESPN.

Having said that, we have a lot of good stuff for you in this week’s Stock Report.

Fantasy Football Week 6: Stocks Up

Sam Bradford

There is no doubt that he is talented with a bright future, but Bradford is going through a small sophomore slump.  While that may be, going up against the Packers could be good for his fantasy numbers.  Yes, Green Bay does cause turnovers, but Sam isn’t an interception machine and the secondary does give up its share of big plays.

Daniel Thomas

Probable for the matchup against New York on Monday night, Daniel Thomas has been steadily taking away from Reggie Bush’s action as the weeks go by.  The Jets defense hasn’t lived up to the hype that it was getting this preseason, and if Thomas is getting the touches you can be sure he will be getting the points.

Earnest Graham

With LeGarrette Blount sitting out this game at home against New Orleans, Graham is a more than capable back to replace him.  Simply put, this Tampa Bay offense is still looking for an identity and have close to no weapons with any playmaking ability.  Look for the Bucs to get back to the basics and run the ball this week.

Delone Carter

I am proud to say that this is not a homer pick.  Yes Delone and I played together in high school, but that isn’t why his stock is up this week.  The Colts just see something in him that could benefit fantasy owners a lot.  When the ball gets anywhere near the goal-line, you can bet the house that Carter is getting the ball.  Add in the fact that Addai looks like he is going to sit out, and the rookie may start and have a big day against a Bengals defense that won’t have Rey Maualuga.

Victor Cruz

Does it need to be said that Eli Manning can put up numbers?  He may be turnover prone, but he does get his guys the ball.  Also, the GGGGGGG-Men are going up against a Bills team that loves to get in shootouts and get continuously burned by third receiving options (think Jason Avant, but without all of the turnovers hopefully).

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Usually, one wouldn’t be caught dead trying to make a case for a sprinter with no hands for fantasy football, but that is about to happen right now.  Al Davis was the only person who really believed in Heyward-Bey, and with his passing the Raiders wide-out could continue to make the statement he’s been making the past few weeks.  Did I mention that Browns CB Joe Haden is listed as questionable too?

Cleveland Browns TEs

While the Browns have a few receivers on the squad, it is the tight ends who have been the most productive thus far.  Both Evan Moore and Benjamin Watson are more than capable of making plays for your squad.  Some people feel as if two tight ends would take away from each other, but not when those two are the best pass catchers on the team.

Buffalo D/ST

Although it was noted that a player earlier in the article could have a big day against the Bills’ defense, that doesn’t mean they can’t do what they do best.  Interceptions, well turnovers in general, is what they are best at on defense.  Hey, they picked off Brady and Vick a total of 8 times this year and the turnover machine Eli Manning is next on the schedule.

Fantasy Football Week 6: Stocks Down

Matt Schaub

Sometimes it is hard to rate how Schaub is go play becuae one day you will get a 25 point outing from him and then the very next week that number is cut to 9.  It is safe to say that if the over/under for him this week is 13, the Ravens defense is likely to play where he hits the under.

Michael Vick

DISCLAIMER!  His stock really isn’t down, but for a player of Vick’s caliber, yes it is down this week for a few reasons.  The record setting game last year in primetime has not been forgotten in D.C. and the Redskins will be doing everything they can to stop him.  Besides, the Skins have only allowed 3 touchdown passes this year.  Again, stock isn’t down, just treading water.

Redskins RBs

The circus that the backfield is in in the nation’s capital is just that, a show with many quirks.  Not even Mike Shanahan knows who he wants to be the feature back, and if Tim Hightower does in fact play, then he and Torain will surely take away from each other on Sunday.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

The man who has four names in his name alone will be limited to that many toes on his foot if he is to play this week.  Even if he does play, the strength of the Cowboys defense has been the ability to stop the run and control the line of scrimmage, as good as any other team in the league.

Brandon Marshall

To receive fantasy points, one must acquire stats.  To get these stats, this person must be in the game and on the field, correct?  I’m not sure if fantasy owners are taking Brandon Marshall seriously, but getting ejected from the game before halftime is not going to help his numbers at all.  Now ask yourself: is this a risk that you really want to take?

Jason Avant

His popularity has gone up some, but 11 points isn’t much to get excited about; and ask yourself this: would I throw him the ball during crunch time seeing what happened in Buffalo last week?

Reggie Wayne

It is no secret that Curtis Painter has a new favorite target in Pierre Garcon, so naturally Wayne’s numbers will be down.  Take this into account as well: Leon hall doesn’t necessarily guard the speedy receivers, so instead of taking Garcon out of the game, it looks like Hall will be trying to shut down Reggie.

Aaron Hernandez

Now when you drop a sure touchdown pass, does Tom Brady forgive and forget or does he hold that against you and throw to his many other weapons?  Apparently it is circumstantial but Hernandez is still listed as questionable and won’t be 100% for the game so play accordingly.

49ers D/ST

The week could go either way for this defense.  On the year they have caused 14 turnovers and have notched an interception every game.  Three out of the five they have played were multi-interception games.  Now for the bad news: playing on the road is no easy test and especially against the flaming hot Detroit Lions.  If Megatron gets hot, it could be a long day.

Because we at MSF try our best to get you our Start Em, Sit Em picks before everyone else, we have to take a few chances. One of the downsides to coming out with these picks on Tuesday is that we won’t know all of the injury updates that come out later in the week. We answer your questions and update our predictions accordingly as more information comes out.

However, a few predictions didn’t pan out this week because of injuries (either during the game, or because guys with nagging injuries didn’t end up suiting up on Sunday)…so out of fairness to me, we are going to throw out Michael Vick, Felix Jones, and Dez Bryant.

So besides those guys who caught the injury bug, I went 29 out of 46 overall…a little under 65%. I improved from week one…and that’s exactly what you should try to do from week to week in fantasy.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you. But the good news is that we’ll be doing another one in Week 3! Details to come soon.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around.

Fantasy Football Week Three

Also, don’t miss Andy Bottoms’ Week 3 waiver wire advice!

Week Two Recap

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 3
Picks: Ray Rice, Megatron, and Jermaine Gresham (Michael Vick)
Calvin Johnson had two TDs, and Rice still put up 15 fantasy points in a horrible week for Baltimore. Gresham, however, was a complete no-show. Unfortunately for him, AJ Green announced himself to the world this week, and Gresham didn’t get a lot of targets.

Start Em Predictions: 2.5 for 4
Picks: Tony Romo, Shonn Greene, Jabar Gaffney, and Dallas Clark
Romo was an absolute “hit” of a pick…and he didn’t even play the whole game. However, Greene, Gaffney, and Clark were all lukewarm. None of them killed you if you started them, but none of them really went out and crushed it either. Greene and Clark both got TDs to salvage their days, and Gaffney had a solid amount of yards with no TDs. I’m giving myself 1/2 points for all three of them.

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 17
Hits: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Dustin Keller, and Aaron Hernandez
Misses: Kerry Collins, Devin Hester, Jacoby Jones, and Ed Dickson

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Picks: Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Thomas, and Brandon Pettigrew
Completely missed on the Auburn alum…and completely nailed the other three. I still find it hard to believe that Cam Newton is going to be doing this all year, but he is definitely worth a look right now, especially if you need a solid backup. Also, since I live in Charleston, SC, and am forced to have every single second of every Panther game shown to me on tv, I have to say I’ve loved the young guy’s attitude in both losses this year.

Sit Em Predictions: 0.5 for 4
Picks: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Santonio Holmes, and Scott Chandler
Holmes scored a TD to salvage an otherwise mediocre day, so I’m giving myself a half point on that one. Other than that, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Chandler were all misses.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 8 for 14
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Colts’ RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mark Ingram, Mike Thomas, Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap
Misses: Matt Hasselbeck, Sam Bradford, LeGarrette Blount, AJ Green, Steve Smith 1.0, and Dwyane Bowe.

On to Week Three!

Just a little clarification… “Top Performer” predictions can be anybody…I can put Tom Brady in there every single week if I want to (and by the looks of it, I may just have to do that). However, “Start Em” guys will be QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25 at their position (unless, for some reason, a lot of people are predicting them to have a terrible week and I disagree). “Sit Em” guys will be QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25 at their position.

Again, the goal of this article is to help you with the FRINGE guys…any idiot could sit down and predict, with great accuracy, that the top 10 fantasy QBs will have good weeks. At MSF, we try to help you with the difficult choices.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Tom Brady
What? You were expecting someone else? It’s possible it will be incredibly windy in Buffalo this weekend…unfortunately, that is the Bills’ only hope at slowing down Justin Bieber on Sunday.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 3 projection – 390 yards; 4 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Matt Cassel
He’s been awful so far this year…and now he will be playing without his best offensive weapon against a team that will be trying to exact revenge after making so many dumb mistakes against the Pats last week.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week Three projection – 195 yards; 1 TD, 3 INTs

Start Em QB: Rex Grossman
This is a combination of two things: I actually really like what Grossman has done so far this year; and the Cowboys’ secondary is terrible. The possibility exists that Washington will be in for a tough game on the road in Dallas, but I don’t think it will affect Grossman’s numbers very much on Monday Night.

Rex Grossman fantasy football Week 3 projection – 330 yards; 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Philip Rivers – Always.
• Matt Stafford – As long as he’s healthy.
• Cam Newton – Home against Jacksonville…he should have a very solid day again.
• Matt Ryan – Big game against Tampa Bay.

Sit Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
This might not sound like a huge leap of faith, but Fitzpatrick is currently the fifth overall ranked fantasy QB, and New England’s pass defense isn’t exactly spectacular. Nevertheless, I really don’t like Fitzpatrick this week.

If the Bills end up trailing by 14 or more early on (I think they will), Fitzpatrick won’t have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Oakland this week. NE will get him uncomfortable, and force him into a few more mistakes than normal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week Three projection – 230 yards; 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler – (Relatively to what they will normally do)…I think the GB/CHI game will be a lot uglier than what people will be expecting.
• Donovan McNabb – Against Suh…yikes!
• Kerry Collins – Maybe the last game of his career.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Maurice Jones-Drew
Mo-Joe should get lots of carries if and when Blaine Gabbert starts on Sunday, and he will probably be fantastic until he dies in week 5 due to being unbelievably over-worked for the past twenty years.

Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy football Week 3 projection – 140 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 85 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Colts’ RBs
They are awful…and they will be playing Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to like about the Colts’ offense this week.

Joseph Addai and Delone Carter fantasy football Week Three projection – 28 Rushing Yards TOTAL

Start Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall
I’m really down on Mendenhall this year, but against the Colts on Sunday Night, he will haul a lot people back onto his bandwagon.

Rashard Mendenhall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 115 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• LeSean McCoy – Maybe no Vick…maybe tons of stats for the RB.
• Fred Jackson – Gets a surprising amount of yardage on the ground against NE.
• Ray Rice – Could be the overall top performer against St. Louis.
• Shonn Greene – The second of like six or seven straight great weeks for him.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best
I think the Lions will do pretty well against Minnesota this week, but I don’t necessarily love the matchup for Best. The Vikings’ D-Line is still solid, but more importantly, they have shown to be vulnerable in the air. Megatron and his friends will be targeted early and often…and for good reason.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week Three projection – 45 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Adrian Peterson – Ndomakong Suh (you’re still starting him of course, but temper expectations)
• Darren McFadden – Not against the Jets. He may break one big reception, but otherwise, he will be bottled up.
• Packers Running Backs – The platoon is killing both of them…and neither will run well in Chicago.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Brandon Marshall
Marshall will most likely be playing in an ugly game at Cleveland. Both teams will try to run the ball quite a bit in order to control the clock, and the passing games will be left out a little bit. That won’t be a problem for Marshall though. He will create matchup problems for the undersized Cleveland secondary all day, and while the Dolphins may lose, Marshall should have a big day.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 165 Yards and 1 TD.

Projected Worst Performer: Denarius Moore
Revis Island. Moving on.

Denarius Moore fantasy football Week Three projection – 1 Catch for 9 Yards

Start Em WR: Santana Moss
Moss is quietly having a very solid fantasy season once again. At this point, he is the 27th ranked WR, and he only has one TD meaning his value hasn’t been super inflated. He should have a great game against the soft Dallas secondary, and if the game turns into a high-scoring affair, Moss will get a lot of targets. Surprisingly, he’s still Washington’s big-play guy at this point in his career, and I expect him to break a couple on Monday Night.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 140 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Reggie Wayne – The only Colt player that will have a good week.
• Larry Fitzgerald – He is becoming more comfortable with Kolb…look out.
• AJ Green – I think he’s one of the top 5 talented WRs in the league already…and I’m not kidding. Just watch this. Plus, it looks like Andy Dalton knows that now as well.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – If Cam has a big day, Steve will have a big day.

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Just a bad day to be a Chiefs fan. Cassel will most likely struggle, and San Diego will concentrate on shutting Bowe and the running game down. Last year against San Diego, Bowe combined for 2 catches and 16 yards…that’s the TOTAL for both games. Be very careful before Tasting the Dwayne Bowe this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week Three projection – 3 Catches for 30 Yards.

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Julio Jones – I still don’t think he’s that good. He may break out in week 8, but he’s way too inconsistent to be looked at this early in his career. Just click on this article for proof.
• Jeremy Maclin – He and DeSean Jackson are just too inconsistent…but I think it’s Jackson’s turn this week to have a big week and Maclin will be left out.
• Santonio Holmes – Keller and Plaxico are options 1 and 2 in the red zone for the Jets right now. And Greene is probably #3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
This is a no-brainer. Hernandez is banged up and will miss a few games. Gronkowski may go for 400 yards in this offense right now.

Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 145 Yards and 2 TDs.

Projected Worst Performer: Todd Heap
There is a reason that Baltimore let him go so easily…and you should let him go as well.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week Three projection – 0 Catches

Start Em TE: Brent Celek
If Vick is banged up and can’t go, or even if he is healthy but playing a little more conservatively, Celek should have a big game. Currently, he sits 30th overall in the TE rankings, but Celek owners should look forward to this Sunday.

Brent Celek fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 85 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• Dustin Keller – Quickly becoming the Sanchize’s favorite target.
• Tony Gonzalez – He’s still got a little left in the tank…I was wrong.
• Jermaine Gresham
• Owen Daniels – High scoring affair against New Orleans…Schaub will look to him often to beat the Saints’ blitz.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark
I just hate the matchup. Polomalu will be ranging all over the middle of the field, and Collins will be on his back for much of the game. Clark may be needed to pass block more than normal, and he just won’t be able to get into the game at all.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 3 projection – 5 Catches for 40 Yards and 1 Fumble

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week 3:

• Scott Chandler – Don’t chase Touchdowns! They will end up disappointing you.
• Jimmy Graham – One of those weeks that Brees finds everybody but him.
• Ben Watson – The classic “I scored a TD early and I look better than I really am” guy. Take it out, and you have a guy with 6 catches for 61 yards. Not terrible…but not a starter in a league with less than 25 teams.

Good Luck in Week Three!  As always, feel free to ask questions in the comment section, or on my twitter (@The_Dr_Twitch) or to our MSF Fantasy Twitter account (@FantasyMSF).

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Stay caught up with all of our Week 3 fantasy football analysis:

• Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections
• Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 3 Stats to Know
• Week 3 Fantasy Football Talk Start/Sit Podcast
• Week 3 Player Rankings at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

If there is one thing to know prior to Week 2 it is that you shouldn’t be excited one way or another about one specific game; but that doesn’t mean rest on your laurels.  Fantasy football owners must be bold and we have some bold stock reports just for you.

Stock Up

Matthew Stafford

Could this be the year that Stafford jumps into the elite group of fantasy quarterbacks that can score you 20+ points week in and week out?  Maybe, maybe not; but this week should be a big one for him.  The Chiefs got lit up for four touchdowns through the air by the Bills and now with Eric Berry out for the season, the hole in that secondary just got bigger.

Joe Flacco

He could be one of the most underrated players in all of football.  After this week, there will be no more questions about his play.  Baltimore is going to have a lot of possessions to put up points as this Tennessee team has questions all around.  With weapons like Boldin, Evans and Rice at his disposal, Joe Cool looks like one of the most consistent players around.

Peyton Hillis

With only 8 points at home last week against Cincinnati, you can bet your mortgage that this number will almost double.  To say the Indy defense is small would be an understatement.  The Browns are going to pound him over and over again until they see 8 or 9 in the box.  Look for Hillis to carry the ball about 25 times with a few catches out of the backfield too.

Beanie Wells

His third year in the league really could be a breakout season for the underachieving back, and with Hightower no longer around to steal some of the touches, Wells’ role has increased.  Washington likes to gear up for the pass, and any time the Cards get remotely near the endzone you know that he is going to get the ball.

Brandon Marshall

Why would his stock be down in the first place?  It’s understandable if someone questions Marshall because of his antics and the fact that Chad Henne is throwing him the ball, but this offense could be something special from a fantasy perspective.  They will give the Texans’ new look 3-4 defense its first real test of 2011.  Two above average acquisitions in the secondary really isn’t enough to slow down an elite talent like Marshall.

Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson

There are only a few teams where you can lose your number one receiver and there is virtually no worry.  That’s a team with Drew Brees leading at the helm.  Marques Colston is out for a few weeks with a broken collarbone so Meachem and Henderson will absorb a lot of his production; and with a Bears defense that is really designed to stop the run, 10+ fantasy points for both guys is not out of the question.

Owen Daniels

The Texans didn’t have to show any of their true colors on offense against the disaster what seems to be Indianapolis last week.  This week will be much different as the Dolphins will pose a much bigger test and Daniels’ production will be relied on even more.  You did see what New England TE’s were able to do against that Miami defense last week right?

Dallas Clark

There has to be a massive overhaul on the offensive end for the Colts, and who better to make the focal point than Dallas Clark?  A quarterback’s best friend is a good running game and a pass catching tight end.  Cleveland has good corners and the options of Wayne, Garcon and Collie may be minimized to an extent, allowing Clark to roam freely and pick up points.

Stock Down

Matt Ryan

The Atlanta Falcons offense has a lot of very good players on it.  Roddy White, Michael Turner, Julio Jones and Ryan all have Pro-Bowl talent, but the offense as a whole really isn’t explosive.  As far as the passing game goes, this week against the Eagles and three very good corners, things aren’t looking very good.  Another negative is that with Michael Vick on the other sideline, Atlanta will try and run the ball to keep him on the field making Ryan’s fantasy prospectus bleak.

Matt Cassel

It isn’t like he was expected to be some kind of fantasy star, but ever since his year in ’09 with the Pats, Cassel has been given high praise.  The Chiefs’ schedule this year is a lot more difficult than it was the previous and the going gets tough right now.  The Lions’ D-Line is among the league’s best, so pressure up the middle is going to be imminent causing a turnover or two.

Jamaal Charles

Chances are I’m going to take some flack for this suggestion to leave Charles on the bench, but it is for the same reason we don’t like Cassel this week.  With Suh and crew wreaking havoc on the KC O-line, the only production out of the backfield could be on screens and outside runs, which is the usual but if the Lions are up early in the game he might turn in a mediocre single digit point game.

Chris Johnson

So, 9 carries for 24 yards equals out to 4 points against the Jags defense.  What do people think will happen against a Ravens defense that is clearly much better?  There are way too many questions swirling around Johnson at this time to think that 4-point games are acceptable, and it is obvious that the holdout has slowed down his progress so far.  Like with all fantasy running backs, when their team is down, the running game takes a backseat and so do individual stats.

Roddy White

Look, this isn’t an assault on the Atlanta Falcons offense, but looking past the obvious would be a grave mistake.  Going up against the talented Philadelphia secondary is going to be a tall task, but the specific matchup is what will determine White’s production.  If he goes against Asante Samuel, he may provide you with some decent production, but if it is the bigger and stronger Nnamdi Asumogha, then he is going to struggle.

Steve Smith

The Packers took notice of what Cam Newton was able to do against Arizona with Smith as his primary target.  29 points looks great, but to think that Dom Capers won’t virtually eliminate the Panther wideout in hopes of forcing the rookie quarterback to throw elsewhere is crazy.

Zach Miller

The Seahawks are going into a firestorm on Sunday and the worst defense they could face would be the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Pete Carroll is going to want to use some max protect schemes against the pass rush, which means Miller will be staying in to block.  While he may start off slow this year, you shouldn’t be apt to sell him yet.  A week or two more to get settled into the Seattle system should get him back to his normal self.

Rob Gronkowski

Last week the football world saw the Pats utilize the two tight end set almost all game, and it was truly run to perfection.  Well, this is a different week, and with a different week comes a different team, and with a different team, well, yea you get the point.  The Patriots aren’t going to bully the Chargers defense with the two tight ends.  Rob may have some success this week but 14 points is looking a lot more like 4.

Many fantasy football owners still have lineup questions, so here are a few last minute lineup tips that may answer any lingering questions.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Players to Avoid

Cam Newton

After a record setting Week 1, in which he threw for a rookie-record 422 yards, Newton is going up against the Green Bay defense. He will not see the success that he had against the Cardinals when he goes up against the defense of the defending Super Bowl champs.

Chris Johnson

After his preseason holdout, Chris Johnson returned to the action with only 24 yards on 9 carries in Week 1. This week he is going up against a Ravens defense that forced seven turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1. I can’t see Johnson having a decent game until he fully returns to game-shape, which may not happen for a few more weeks.

Dwayne Bowe

Bowe only had 2 catches for 17 yards in a 41-7 Week 1 loss to the Bills. He struggled to get open and find a rhythm with Cassel all game, and this likely won’t change in this week’s matchup against the Lions. The Chiefs may have thought that the Bills and Lions would be easy wins, but the Chiefs proved last year that any team can come out any year and contend.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Players to Start

Matthew Stafford

Stafford had 3 touchdowns in a Week 1 win over the Bucs, along with 305 yards. He is going up the Chiefs defense who was taken advantage of by the Bills in the opening week of the year. Look for Stafford to throw for another 3 touchdowns this week.

Rashard Mendenhall

Mendenhall and the Steelers were embarrassed by the Ravens in Week 1, but a Week 2 matchup against the Seahawks should prove to be different. Look for Mendenhall to easily rush for 100 yards and get at least 2 touchdowns.

Brandon Marshall

The Dolphins are going up against a tough opponent in the Texans, but with the way Chad Henne threw the ball in Week 1, Marshall should see the ball often. He had 139 receiving yards against the Patriots, as Henne was simply outplayed by Tom Brady. The Texans defense was not tested by the Colts in Week 1, so the Dolphins and Marshall will prove whether or not their defense is for real.

As always, feel free to leave your lineup questions in the comment section.

You only have one job left to do: start the right guys.

Nothing could be worse than having an awesome team…on your bench.

Each and every one of us has a fantasy sob story or two, and it’s almost a guarantee that one of them revolves around sitting the wrong guy.

So who are you going to start this week?

If you haven’t signed up yet to participated in the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, click here to do so now! (For more information click here.)

It’s free to enter, you get to compete against MSF writers and readers, and $250 in prizes will be awarded. What could be better than that?

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em Lineup Advice

Obviously, if you have Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, or Larry Fitzgerald, he will be in your starting lineup. But who is going to have a better week THIS week? Pierre Garcon or Malcom Floyd? Mike Tolbert or Shonn Greene?

Overall season predictions won’t help you win this week; so as we do every week here at Midwest Sports Fans, here are the guys to start and sit in Week 1.

One theme you will see this week is that I am really downplaying two groups of players: players on new teams and rookies.

While Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Mark Ingram may very well become great players, I just don’t see them doing much early on this season. Rookies already have a hard enough time adjusting to the NFL. Now you add a four month lockout, and it’s almost an insurmountable deficit they have to make up.

(The “Projected Worst Performer” – a new wrinkle in our Start/Sit coverage this year, is obviously chosen from among guys who will be in their team’s starting lineup this week. Of course a guy like Brady Quinn will be a poor performer…but hopefully, nobody will be starting him this week.)

As always, follow me on twitter @The_Dr_Twitch and @FantasyMSF for updates on this week’s fantasy goings on and to get any last minute lineup questions answered.  Or feel free to comment at the bottom and I will try to answer as many of your thoughts as possible.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Quarterbacks

Projected Top Performer: Philip Rivers

My overall #1 QB should have a fantastic week at home against a soft Minnesota secondary. He may get sacked a few times, but he will also hit on at least two or three home run balls.

Philip Rivers Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 340 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Chad Henne

I actually don’t think he’s as bad as everybody thinks, but the Patriots should win this game walking away and their new and improved defense will absolutely love pinning their ears back and getting to the QB throughout the entire second half.

Chad Henne Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 150 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs

Now for the tough calls:

Week One Start Em QB: Ben Roethlisberger

Don’t be too scared by the “vaunted” Baltimore defense. A quick look at their lineup reveals a lot of flashy names and not nearly as much production. While Ed Reed will still be running around and may even come up with an interception, Big Ben and his new and improved passing attack should be flying on all cylinders. Look for Baltimore to do a reasonably good job stuffing the run and Pittsburgh to adjust accordingly by throwing the ball all over the field.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 285 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start Em QBs for Week 1:

• Tom Brady (#2 by a hair)
• Colt McCoy (home against Cincinnati)
• Matthew Stafford (will explode at Tampa)
• Matt Schaub (no run against Indy? No problem)
• Jay Cutler (shootout with Atlanta)
• Matt Ryan (see Cutler, Jay).

Week One Sit Em QB: Tony Romo

It pains me – as a guy that drafted Tony Romo and NO OTHER QBs in his own league – to say this, but Romo will not have a good Week 1. I’m actually very high on Romo this year, and have him as the sixth ranked overall QB, but I don’t think he will be able to overcome everything in New York Sunday night.

Not only is the Jets’ pass defense one of the best in the league, but you also have the whole “9-11” thing. A few years ago, the Saints played the Falcons at home, shortly after Hurricane Katrina. It wouldn’t have mattered if the All-Madden Team walked out onto that field that day…the Saints weren’t losing. I have the feeling it will be more of the same in Week 1.

Look for Romo to have a decent amount of yards, but break down late near the red zone.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 245 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit em QBs for Week 1:

• Peyton Manning (obvious reasons)
• Michael Vick (on the road…in a dome…against an underrated defense…without a few weapons)
• Josh Freeman (Detroit’s line will be too much)
• Mark Sanchez (he’s just not good)
• Joe Flacco (Pittsburgh has his number).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Running Backs

Projected Top Performer: Jamaal Charles

To be honest, Charles would be my #1 running back if I wasn’t so scared about him getting hurt or worn down halfway through the season. Good thing for Charles owners he opens up the season at home against the Buffalo Bills.

He is probably the best home-run threat in football outside of Chris Johnson, and if your league rewards big plays, Charles could REALLY stand out in Week 1. I could easily see Charles rushing for over 200 yards, a-la Arian Foster last year against the Colts.

Jamaal Charles Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 22 carries for 190 yards and 2 TDs; 4 Receptions for 39 yards and 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Fred Jackson

There’s just not a lot going Jackson’s way this weekend. First, he’s not that good. Secondly, he has no quarterback so an already good run defense in Kansas City will be able to load the box against him. Third, CJ Spiller will probably be a better matchup against the Chiefs’ defense so FJax will get less touches. Fourth, I expect KC to win handily. And fifth, he’s not that good.

Fred Jackson Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 9 carries for 23 yards; 2 catches for 12 yards

Week One Start Em RB: Tim Hightower

He recently won the starting running back job in Washington and will be rushing in Mike Shanahan’s famous “zone blocking” scheme. You might be scared to start him week one because of Ryan Torain and Roy Helu; and I agree that eventually, as Torain and Helu will end up stealing carries from Hightower, but not until later on in the year. Helu is still a rookie that missed an entire summer’s worth of practice. Shanahan will need to rely on a running back that can pick up the Giants’ pass rush and Hightower will do the job. Also, the Giants’ rush defense is surprisingly mediocre, and Washington will rely heavily on the running game as long as John Beck and Rex Grossman are their quarterbacks. Don’t be scared to start Hightower early on in the season as the talented Helu struggles to learn the offense.

Tim Hightower Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 18 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD; 5 catches for 34 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 1:

• Peyton Hillis (home against Cincinnati)
• DeAngelo Williams (look for him to get a lot more touches now that he is healthy and Fox has moved on)
• LeSean McCoy (only player for Philly that will have a good game in a shocking loss at St. Louis)
• Chris Johnson (I think he sends a message to all the “fake” Tennessee fans).

Week One Sit Em RB: Ray Rice

Rice is my #4 ranked RB, and he will have a fantastic year, but facts are facts: nobody runs against the Steelers. Rice will probably be a decent threat out of the backfield, and may end up getting close to 80 yards on the ground and in the air, but that’s not exactly what you are hoping for out of your #1 running back.

You may not have much depth at the RB position, and you may feel compelled to start your first round draft pick…but don’t be scared. Nobody runs against the Steelers, not even Rice. Sit him with confidence, and try to hit a home run with a wild card.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 12 carries for 42 yards; 4 catches for 18 yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 1:

• Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh will begin throwing early and often against the Ravens)
• Knowshon Moreno (as soon as McGahee gets hurt, Moreno will break out…but the platoon system will hurt his value early on)
• Arian Foster (obvious reasons)
• Colts running backs (Houston will load up against the run with no Peyton Manning)
• LeGarrette Blount (Two words: Ndomakong Suh).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Larry Fitzgerald

Kevin Kolb isn’t great…but he is better than me…and that’s really all Fitzgerald needs this season…especially against the Panthers in Week One.

Larry Fitzgerald Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 11 catches for 176 yards and 2 TDs

Projected Worst Performer: Dwayne Bowe

Not that it will hurt the Chiefs in any way…but I really don’t expect KC to be throwing the ball around too much against the Bills. Look for them to march out to a comfortable lead, and Bowe to take a backseat in the offense, at least for one day.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 4 catches for 35 yards

Week One Start ‘Em WR: Reggie Wayne

Yes, I’m serious.

The Colts will definitely struggle in Week 1, especially without Peyton Manning. Houston will almost definitely stack the box to stuff the run, and if they get an early lead, the Colts will be forced to throw the ball a lot. Whether it’s Painter or Collins, one thing is for sure: Wayne will have a good day.

He has been outspoken in his defense of Painter, and Painter has clearly trusted him in the pre-season. Clark, Collie, Garcon, and Gonzalez may have bad days, but you can start Reggie with confidence this week.

Reggie Wayne Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 14 catches for 145 yards

Other Start Em WRs for Week 1:

• Calvin Johnson (statement win for Detroit)
• Mario Manningham (he and Nicks will take turns having mammoth games…it’s Super Mario Week in Week 1)
• Brandon Marshall (Dolphins will be playing from behind so he’ll rack up yards)
• Percy Harvin (probably 8 catches…and he gets to return the ball against San Diego)
• Roddy White (obvious reasons)
• Johnny Knox (shootout in Chicago).

Week One Sit ‘Em WR: Dez Bryant

It was either him or Miles Austin, and I think Revis Island will settle on Bryant for most of the night. Romo still trusts Miles Austin a little more, and will look to him and Jason Witten on hot routes while trying to escape pressure all night.

It’s definitely possible that Bryant will be able to make something happen in the return game on Sunday night, but if not, look for Bryant to have a frustratingly poor opening night.

Dez Bryant Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 2 catches for 14 yards; 1 rush for -2 yards

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 1:

• Greg Jennings (just a weird game for the Packers…I think their rushing attack and role players get more touches against Sean Payton and Gregg Williams’ D)
• Anquan Boldin (because Joe Flacco’s awful)
• AJ Green (not yet…just wait for him)
• Santonio Holmes (because Mark Sanchez is awful)
• Mike Thomas (new QB in Jax).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Em, Sit Em – Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Jason Witten

Romo and his best friend will connect on a lot of underneath passes all game long. If Witten can even get into the end zone once, he should have a huge day.

Jason Witten Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 12 catches for 125 yards and 1 TD

Week One Start Em TE: Aaron Hernandez

I have been very outspoken about Hernandez, so I will just keep it simple with facts: nobody in the entire league has caught more balls than him this pre-season; he’s the more talented of the two tight ends in New England and wants to prove it this season; and Tom Brady will be throwing the ball all over the place against Miami.

Aaron Hernandez Fantasy Football Week 1 Projection: 8 catches for 110 yards and 2 TDs

Other Start Em TEs for Week 1:

• Vernon Davis (against Seattle)
• Owen Daniels (against the Colts)
• Jimmy Graham (GB shuts down the Saints’ WRs and Graham gets a lot of touches)
• Greg Olsen (Cam Newton’s new best friend)
• Brandon Pettigrew (everyone in Detroit will have a good fantasy week).

Week One Sit Em TE: Jermichael Finley

Finley has been getting lots of love this season because in the past he’s been a TD machine. However, Aaron Rodgers adapted quite well without him, and with the extended lockout I think it will take Finley a few weeks to find his niche in the offense again. Finley won’t have a HORRIBLE week, but he won’t be blowing anyone away either if you another good option.

Jermichael Finley Fantasy Football Week 1 Projected Stats – 5 catches for 43 yards

Other Sit Em TEs for Week 1:

• Zach Miller (normally, bad QBs equate to good days for TEs…but Tarvaris Jackson hasn’t even attained the “bad QB” level yet)
• Marcedes Lewis (I just don’t think he’s good, and the new QB will be rough for him)
• Tony Gonzalez (you are starting him for his name, and nothing else…so don’t start him
• Dallas Clark (rough day for the Colts and Dallas)

So there you have it. The first Start Em, Sit Em post for 2011 is in the books. The comment section is now yours.

Best of luck in Week 1 everybody!

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Since I have now participated in several drafts and am starting to get a feel for how general values, ratings, and draft positions are shaping up this year, now seems like as good a time as any for the first Fantasy Football Tips Sheet post.

So here are some tips.

1. I’m still convinced that waiting on a quarterback is a good idea

As I said in last week’s fantasy football podcast, I am waiting to take my quarterback this year. There are numerous reasons why this is the case:

• I don’t want to overpay for the real-life Aaron Rodgers hype, which is inflating his fantasy value
• I certainly don’t trust Michael Vick enough to invest a first round pick in him
• Tom Brady’s TD passes the last four seasons: 50, 0, 28, 36 – that’s a lot of fluctuation
• Peyton Manning has his neck issues
• Underrated, steady guys like Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, and Eli Manning are often available in rounds 5 & 6
• High upside guys like Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford are often available even later than that

Two guys I would consider taking late in the 2nd round or early in the 3rd round (preferably), depending on how the draft fell, would be Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. At that draft position, I think their combination of consistency and upside are worth it. Otherwise, I want to get a top flight running back and wide receiver, because there are big drop-offs at both positions after the first tier. Quarterback, however, has value and upside up and down the list, which is why waiting is a great idea this year.

2. Here are 5 guys I see going too early in drafts and being overrated in general

Arian Foster

To me, he’s a late first round value at best. Why? Allow me to count the ways:

• only one year of production
• coming off heavy workload
• already been hurt twice during offseason/preseason
• was an undrafted free agent (speaks generally to raw talent)
• crowded backfield with healthy Ben Tate means fewer carries

I tend to like my top 5 picks to have fewer question marks than that.

Michael Vick

He was spectacular last year, and like Foster his value was magnified by his low of cost of acquisition – which in many cases, including mine, was a free agent pickup. But remember that the beauty of grabbing Vick as a free agent guy last year was that he posed you no risk. If he was spectacular, great! If he wasn’t, you probably had another solid QB you drafted to sub in. This year, however, you have to spend a first round pick on Vick, which means that his injury history and propensity to be inconsistent come into play.

I do think that Vick can have a very nice season this year, and he certainly has the upside to be the best overall player in fantasy football, but he also has a potential downside that could sabotage your team. If you spend a first round pick on Vick, make sure you get yourself a solid backup somewhere around rounds 7-8, because there is a good chance you’ll need that guy to play a few weeks this year.

DeAngelo Williams

I am seeing DeAngelo Williams go in the 3rd or 4th round in some drafts, but I’m just not seeing the value. Not only has he had two straight years of pretty step production decline, he has missed 13 games. And with Carolina looking to be rather moribund again on offense – such is life breaking in a rookie QB for the second straight year – I don’t see where the touchdown opportunities are going to come from. Plus, you have Jonathan Stewart there to siphon off carries.

I’d love to take a flier on DeAngelo in the 5th or 6th round as a possible flex player, or as a second running back if I have a great first one and two elite WRs plus a QB, but anyone thinking DeAngelo Williams can anchor their RB position this year is setting themselves up to be disappointed.

Dez Bryant

ESPN has Dez Bryant rated as the #12 WR, and I’ve seen people jump up to grab him late in 2nd rounds and early in 3rd rounds. Unless you’re in a keeper league, I don’t see it.

Bryant has amazing talent, and I think that by next year he may be ready to anchor a fantasy WR corps, but right now he hasn’t shown the consistency for me to trust him. And if I’m investing a top 3 pick in a player, I want to be investing in not just talent but also a track record I can trust. Let someone else deal with probable ups and downs that will come with Dez this year.

Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, and A.J. Green (and any other rookie)

Despite years of evidence that it rarely is a smart investment, people continue to draft trendy rookie names too early. This year, the top names are Ingram, Jones, and Green; and while all three are sure to be excellent NFL players in time, fantasy owners are setting them up to disappoint by drafting them over more proven commodities.

In Jones’ case, I can see a reasonable argument for grabbing him in round 7 or 8 – though I wouldn’t – but Ingram and Green are definitely not in situations where they can provide value commensurate with a 4th or 5th round pick, which is where I’ve seen them go.

3. Here are 5 guys I see going too late in drafts and being underrated in general

Ray Rice

There is no one other than Adrian Peterson that I would draft over Ray Rice this year. In a PPR league, I’d take Rice #1. My faith in Rice is based, in part, on my perception that he is safer than all of the other possibilities for the #2 spot. Among my concerns:

• Question marks surrounding the health of Arian Foster and Chris Johnson’s contract status
• Jamaal Charles’ limited of touches in the KC offense
• Maurice Jones-Drew’s knee and the possibility Blaine Gabbert takes over at some point this year
• What I already said above about Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick

Plus, consider this about Rice:

• Willis McGahee is gone, and John Harbaugh has already said that it will be Rice, not Ricky Williams, who get the goalline touches
• Rice’s slow start last year masked the fact that he ended up having a second straight season with #1 RB production
• Rice generates a great deal of value from his receptions (78 and 63 the last two years, respectively), which not only helps in PPR leagues but also has allowed Rice to generate feature-back production while amassing fewer than 600 carries the last two years.

If you follow my fantasy advice, you know I consistently preach minimizing risk early in drafts. Get proven commodities. Be safe early, take chances late. After Adrian Peterson, there is no safer commodity in fantasy football this year than Ray Rice.

Rashard Mendenhall

For many of the reasons I like Ray Rice, I also like Rashard Mendenhall. Not only is Mendenhall on a good offense that will provide him with scoring opportunities, he has two straight years playing 16 games and proving he can anchor a fantasy football team’s running back position, all while amassing fewer than 600 total carries.

Mendenhall does not catch nearly as many passes as Rice, so he’s not the same kind of PPR monster, but in any format Mendenhall is worthy of a first round pick despite often lasting until Round 2. In my mind, as high as #5 or #6 overall is not unreasonable. And if you’re really risk averse and wanted to take Mendenhall ahead of Foster, CJ, Charles, or MJD in a non-PPR league, I would not quibble.

Eli Manning

One person who did not underrate Eli Manning is Jon Washburn, who had Eli as his #10 QB in his recently posted QB rankings for 2011. Unfortunately, many fantasy owners do underrate Eli, which has worked out great for me because I’ve been able to get him as a backup in a number of leagues. Anytime you can get a backup QB with two straight seasons of at least 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns, you’re in great shape. In fact, if you can wait until round 5 or 6 to get Eli as your starter, you’re in great shape.

I know what your rebuttal will be: but he threw 25 interceptions last year! Yes, he did. And that depressed his value a bit. But Eli averaged only 15.8 interceptions over the previous five years, so his INT total last year was most likely a grand aberration.

While losing Steve Smith and Kevin Boss will hurt, Manning still has the superb Hakeem Nicks and the underrated Mario Manningham to throw too. Plus, with the Giants’ dealing with significant issues in their defensive secondary, they could be giving up a lot of points this year. That means Eli will need to match it, which will be good for his yardage and TD totals.

Anquan Boldin

Boldin disappointed fantasy owners during his first year in Baltimore. He only had 64 catches and was held well under 1,000 yards. It was easily the worst statistical season of his career. While I don’t think Boldin will reach the heights of his days catching passes from Kurt Warner, there are reasons to expect a return to 80 catches, 1,000+ yards, and even double-digit TDs:

• Another year to get comfortable with Joe Flacco
• The absence of trusted Flacco targets Derrick Mason and Todd Heap means there are 101 receptions from last season that must be redistributed. Other than Ray Rice, Boldin suddenly has the longest tenure with Flacco of any primary Raven target in the passing game. How many of those 101 receptions do you think will now go Boldin’s way? Even a modest guess of 20 puts Boldin right back at 84 catches for the year.
• The signing of Lee Evans gives the Ravens a deep threat to stretch the field, which will draw some attention away from Boldin.

I’ve been able to get Boldin as a #2 or even #3 WR as late as the 6th and 7th rounds, despite thinking he is a 3rd or 4th round value. If he ends up producing like a 3rd round pick, that is the kind of pick that helps you win fantasy leagues.

Brandon Marshall

There are legit reasons why Marshall is no longer being treated like a #1 WR, his admitted mental issues and quarterback (Chad Henne baby!) chief among them. But it seems to me that the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction and that Marshall is now being vastly underrated.

Marshall underperformed his general draft position last year, but he wasn’t terrible. He caught 80+ balls and had over 1,000 yards, but he only had three touchdowns. Still, look at Marshall’s year-by-year numbers. Tell me which season sticks out as the anomaly.

I don’t think Marshall will ever again reach 1,300 yards or 10 TDs, but there is no reason to think he won’t get back to 95-100 catches, somewhere around 1,150 yards, and 6-7 TDs with another year to gain continuity with Henne and with the Dolphins moving away from their run-first focus this year.

Also, the Dolphins should be down in a lot of games this year, which means lots of 4th quarter receptions and yards. Hey, they all count the same!

4. If you’ve never done an auction draft before, do one.

I completed my first auction draft this past weekend, with another one coming up this Sunday. I thoroughly enjoyed the experience, and I have a feeling that I will now start suggesting auctions in every new league I join. Within about five minutes it became clear that the auction format separates the men from the boys when it comes to strategy and knowing the value of individual players. You can’t fake it or hide like you can in a normal snake draft.

I made a number of rookie mistakes – leaving $4 on the table, getting stuck paying $2 for a kicker, having a top-heavy roster – but I had fun and can’t wait to take what I learned into my next auction.

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Have questions? Pose them below or tweet our fantasy account on Twitter: @FantasyMSF. We’ll either answer you directly or save it for a podcast. Either way, we’ll make sure your questions are answered.

I just saw this tweet from Adam Schefter pass through my feed:

Details still coming into ESPN, but Dolphins WR Brandon Marshal was stabbed and taken to a hospital, where he has been in intensive care.

According to Peter King, it happened last night:

RT @AdamSchefter: Dolphins WR Brandon Marshall stabbed and in a hospital, in intensive care … Happened last night.

King also retweets Marshall’s last tweet, which was at 4:03 yesterday and said “Hair cut time …”.

According to this story at ESPN.com, Marshall was “stabbed by a woman.”

I’m still trying piece together whatever bits of information are floating out on the web. As of 8:00 CT on Saturday morning, the above details are all that have been released.

Let’s just hope Marshall is okay. I hate stories like this.

More details to come.

Update: Here are some additional details from Jay Glazer:

ESPN reported BMarshall stabbed. Dolphins source told me that team informed by docs that BMarshall is not in imminent danger at this point

Appears to be a domestic dispute and at first team told one version he was hit w broken item but then docs said stabbed

Update: Adam Schefter concurs that Marshall appears to not be graveley injured:

Details still sketchy but someone who knows about Dolphins WR Brandon Marshall being stabbed told ESPN, “He’s going to be OK.”

It is worth mentioning that Marshall has a history of domestic violence in his past. In fact, Marshall’s checkered history was the subject of an Outside the Lines episode, detailed here. We don’t know many details about this incident, so I have no clue if what happened yesterday is related to any past incident, but certainly (and unfortunately) violence like what put Marshall in the hospital is not something foreign to him.

Update: From Pro Football Talk:

Glazer also reports that the powers-that-be are convinced that Marshall’s wife did the stabbing.  Initially, doctors were under the impression that she threw something at Marshall, like a vase or a lamp, that it broke on impact, and that a piece of it impaled him.  On closer inspection, doctors concluded that he indeed had been stabbed.

Per Glazer, neither Marshall nor his wife are saying anything about the situation.

Update: From Jason LaCanfora of the NFL Network:

Statement from agent Kennard McGuire on Brandon Marshall’s stabbing: “This is a very difficult time for Brandon and family, thankfully…

More statement “thankfully he will make a full recovery. We simply ask that his privacy is respected.”

Update: From Adam Schefter:

More info to ESPN: Brandon Marshall was stabbed in stomach. No vital organs were pierced. Should make full recovery in two to three weeks.

And with that I’ll probably cease the updates and get on with my Saturday. Sounds like Marshall will be okay, which is good, but he clearly needs to get his life in order and reverse this horrifying and debilitating trend of domestic violence. Otherwise the next story like this might not have such, a relatively speaking, happy ending — if we can define “happy” in this case as surviving a potentially fatal stabbing with non-critical wounds that you’ll recover from in 2-3 weeks.

Update: One more update: It appears that Marshall’s wife was arrested yesterday for aggravated battery with a deadly weapon, though it has not been confirmed that this arrest was related to Marshall’s injury.

Update: Okay fine, one more update from PFT. Looks like things could get a little hairy for Brandon Marshall and his wife:

Amid a flurry of reports popping up almost by the minute on Twitter, Andrew Carter of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel writes that, according to the police report, Marshall’s wife, Michi, has admitted to stabbing her husband with a kitchen knife.

She claims that the act was committed in self-defense.

Marshall contends, per the report, that he slipped a fell on a vase, a twist on Jay Glazer’s report that the authorities originally believed that Mrs. Marshall threw a vase or a lamp at Marshall, that it shattered, and that he was stuck by a piece of it.

It all means that both Brandon and Michi Marshall are in hot water. Click here to see why.

Adam Schefter is reporting this morning that the Miami Dolphins have agreed to ship a couple of draft picks – reported to be 2nd rounders this year and next – to the Denver Broncos in exchange for WR Brandon Marshall.

The Dolphins have had a tremendous void at the WR position for years now. Assuming this trade goes through – Marshall still needs to pass a physical – and Marshall doesn’t get entangled too much in the South Beach night life, the ‘Phins will have upgraded their WR corps from liability to strength.

Here is what ProFootballTalk.com had to say about the Dolphins’ trade for Brandon Marshall:

And though we’ve taken the position for weeks that the Dolphins, who will benefit tremendously from having a receiver who commands double coverage anywhere/everywhere he goes, should do this deal, Marshall’s history of arrests and behavior makes us once again wonder what it takes to be regarded by Bill Parcells as a “thug” or a “hoodlum”.

Bill Parcells may have a very liberal definition of the terms “thug” and “hoodlum” but you can bet that Dolphins QB Chad Henne is happy about it. Henne now goes from from having Alligator Arms Ginn and the tough but undersized Davone Bess to now having one of the premier wideouts in the league.

The conventional wisdom says that Tom Brady is the Michigan alum with the best WRs in the AFC East, but if Wes Welker struggles coming back from his injury and Randy Moss is not motivated or loses a step…well, the conventional wisdom may not hold true.

This deal is a slam dunk for the Dolphins if Brandon Marshall, who played his college ball at Central Florida in Orland, toes the straight and narrow. With Bill Parcells in charge and Tony Sparano there to instill discipline on the day-to-day, I’d say there’s a better than average chance of that happening.

**********

* – Chad Henne photo credit: Allen Eyestone/The Post via Palm Beach Post

* – Brandon Marshall photo credit: Call It Mile High

The Week 17 start em, sit em lineup advice post is up.

——————–

Looking back at my Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em post as I begin Week 4′s, and it was a pretty solid week.

The definite hits: Derrick Mason (start), Brent Celek (start), Denver D (start), Carson Palmer (sit), Ben Watson (sit), Donnie Avery (sit).

The definite misses: Trent Edwards (start), Dallas D (sit).

The ones I predicted relatively well but touchdowns (or lack thereof) skewed value: Steve Slaton (start), Cedric Benson (sit).

All in all, a pretty solid week, and hopefully most of the 157 comments on that post led to sound fantasy decision making for everyone.

And now, it’s time to do it all over again.

As we pointed out in our recently posted NFL Week 4 TV schedule, odds, and picks post, the following teams all have byes this weekend: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles. Obviously keep that in mind when you’re setting your lineups.

And remember: I’m trying to avoid the obvious choices here and instead pinpoint guys that folks might be on the fence about. And as we do every week, I will do my absolute best to answer every question that comes through in the comment section.

[Editor's Note: At some point in the not-to-distant future, MSF will be holding special, "members-only" Sunday morning live chats to help you out with all of your last minute fantasy football decision making. We are going to be hosting these sessions at our new MSF community at Explodium.com.

I'll be writing a post at some point soon telling you about Explodium, but it's pretty badass. When you click on the link, you do have to sign up, but it's free...and trust me, the benefits are there well beyond our Sunday morning fantasy help.]

Now, onto the Week 4 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks:

Fantasy Football

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Kansas City)

Last week against Tampa Bay, Eli Manning completed only 14 passes for 161 yards but connected on two TD passes. The rapport that he is developing with Steve Smith is awesome for fantasy owners of both.

For the season, Manning now has five TD passes and only one INT, throwing two touchdowns in each of the last two weeks.

Kansas City is 20th in the NFL against the pass so far this year, and that includes one of their three games coming against the inept JaMarcus Russell. After Kevin Kolb torched the Chiefs last weekend, they have now given up five TD passes and intercepted only one.

The Giants are still a run-first team, but Eli will be able to pick his spots and have another solid day.

Eli Manning Week 4 projection: 200 passing yards, 2 TDs

Other QBs I like in Week 4: Carson Palmer (@ CLE); Shaun Hill (vs STL); Jay Cutler (vs DET)

Sit ‘Em: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (at Pittsburgh)

Philip Rivers was a revelation last season, tallying 4000+ yards and 34 TDs. So far in 2009, however, Rivers is only on pace for 16 TD passes. I think Rivers is fine, and I have him as a #1 QB in a couple of my leagues, but I don’t like his matchup this week at all.

Pittsburgh is now 1-2 after losing to Cincinnati last weekend. Still, the Steelers held Carson Palmer and a pretty good Bengals’ passing game to only 183 yards and 1 TD.

At home, with their backs against the wall a bit, I think the Steelers are going to come out and deliver a nasty defensive performance. Without a healthy LT in the backfield — or  a rusty one if he returns — to balance out the SD offense, I think Rivers could find the going tough against the Steelers, even with Troy Polamalu still out.

(For the record, I am not sitting Rivers in any of the leagues in which I have him, mainly because I don’t have a better alternative. Remember, whether you start someone or sit them is all relative based on your roster. Just temper your expectations for Rivers this week.)

Philip Rivers Week 4 projection: 240 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other QBs I don’t like in Week 4: Aaron Rodgers (@ MIN); Ben Roethlisberger (vs SD);

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Running Backs

Start ‘Em: Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos (vs Dallas)

It looks like the time may be here to start penciling Knowshon Moreno into your lineups on a weekly basis.

The talented rookie rushed 21 times for 90 yards a score against the Raiders last Sunday. No, the Raiders are not great at stopping the run, but neither is Moreno’s Week 4 opponent Dallas.

The Cowboys are 17th in the NFL right now against the run, giving up 114.7 yards per game, and I think the Broncos will feed Moreno the ball early and often this week.

In PPR leagues, Moreno’s value is not quite as high, as he has only caught two passes this year. But with 17 and 21 carries over the last two weeks respectively, it looks like Moreno has vaulted over Correll Buckhalter for the #1 RB job in Denver.

That makes him worthy of a start in most leagues.

Knownshon Moreno Week 4 projection: 85 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other RBs I like in Week 4: Cedric Benson (@ CLE); Matt Forte (vs DET); Whoever starts at RB for the Redskins (vs TB) — check the injury reports on Clinton Portis this week and pick up Ladell Betts if Portis can’t go; Leon Washington (@ NO); Glen Coffee (vs STL)

Sit ‘Em: Fred Taylor, New England Patriots (vs Baltimore)

Fred Taylor was his old, awesome self last week against Atlanta, rumbling for 105 yards and a score. You will be tempted to start him this week, but keep two things in mind:

1. Baltimore’s defense is still great even without Rex Ryan, and they are giving up only 51 yards per game on the ground without having yielding a TD this season.
2. You never know which New England running back will get the carries in a given week. Taylor has carried 9, 8, and 21 times this season, and still shares a backfield with Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Laurence Maroney.

Taylor will always be a threat this season to vulture a TD, as he did in Week 1, and he is the guy to play from the New England backfield if you have to play one of them this week. But there should be better options out there than a 33-year old running back in a pass-first offense against the league’s best run defense.

Fred Taylor Week 3 projection: 35 yards rushing, 0 TD

Other RBs I don’t like in Week 4: Steven Jackson (@SF); Reggie Bush (vs NYJ);

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em: Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos (vs Dallas)

After an understandably slow start to the season, considering all his self-created off field distractions, Brandon Marshall appears poised to reclaim his spot among the top fantasy WRs.

His 5-catch, 67-yard, 1-TD performance last week against Oakland should be all the convincing you need to get him back in your lineups and keep him there.

The Broncos may be a fraudulent 3-0, but winning and being in first place have a way of getting even the biggest malcontents to play hard. I still don’t trust Dallas’ secondary (and neither should you, as they are 27th in the NFL against the pass) but, like Josh McDaniels, I am starting to trust Brandon Marshall more and more each week.

Brandon Marshall Week 4 projection: 7 catches, 105 yards, TD

Other WRs I like in Week 4: Braylon Edwards (vs CIN) — but ONLY if Derek Anderson starts at QB; Chad Ochocinco (@ CLE); Jerricho Cotchery (@ NO); Steve Smith (@ KC);

Sit ‘Em: Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys (at Denver)

Through three games, Roy Williams has only eight catches for 179 yards and one score, which came in Week 1 against the terrible Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary. And during last night’s Monday night game, Williams let a potential TD pass bounce off of his hands.

With the Dallas running game looking more and more dominant by the week, something tells me Tony Romo will continue to rely on it and be a little more reluctant to take as many shots down field. That, combined with Williams’ horrible matchup this week — Denver is currently 2nd in the NFL in pass defense and has not given up a TD pass while notching five INTs — make him a worthy candidate to sit if you have decent alternatives.

Roy Williams Week 4 projection: 3 catches, 34 yards

Other WRs I don’t like in Week 4: Marques Colston (vs NYJ) — but with the caveat that I will probably start him in my leagues, despite the fact that he’s facing Darrelle Revis, who has been superb in shutting down opposing teams’ best WRs; Dwayne Bowe (vs NYG); Ted Ginn Jr (vs SD)

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Tight Ends

Before I get into this week’s tight ends, can I just pat myself on the back a bit for touting Vernon Davis all year. I picked him as a “start em” guy and a sleeper in Weeks 1 and 2 and watched him struggle a bit, but still maintained that this will be the year Davis becomes a star.

Ironically, last week when I picked Brent Celek instead of Vernon Davis, the 49ers’ freak of nature tight end went off, catching seven passes for 96 yards and two touchdowns.

Unless you have another really good option moving forward, I consider Davis close to a weekly start.

Start ‘Em: Dustin Keller, New York Jets (at New Orleans)

Dustin Keller struggled last week against Tennessee, catching only two passes. This comes on the heels of a three catch day against New England. I think it’s fair to say that Keller will have his ups and downs this year, especially with a rookie calling the shots at QB, but he does have a good matchup this week against New Orleans.

Consider the following facts:

• New Orleans is ranked 22nd against the pass this year in terms of yards
• In Week 2, the Saints allowed eight catches and 104 yards to Eagles TE Brent Celek
• In Week 3, the Saints allowed five catches and 34 yards to Buffalo TE Derek Fine

Hence, opportunities should be there for Keller to have a solid afternoon. There are better options for sure, but if you own Celek or Tony Gonzalez, both of whom have byes this week, Keller is a solid fill-in candidate.

Dustin Keller Week 4 projection: 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

Other TEs I like in Week 4: Vernon Davis (vs STL); Owen Daniels (vs OAK)

Sit ‘Em: Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings (vs Green Bay)

Not only does Shiancoe only have six catches all season, but Green Bay has not given up more than two receptions to a tight end in any game. Even as a bye week fill-in, there are much better options that Shiancoe.

Visanthe Shiancoe Week 4 projection: 2 catches, 17 yards

Other TEs I don’t like in Week 4: Greg Olsen (vs DET); Ben Watson (vs BAL)

Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Defense / Special Teams Units

Start ‘Em: Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland Browns)

This one is pretty easy.

Cincinnati has a much improved defense that is ranked in the top half of Yahoo leagues. This week, they face a Cleveland Browns team that appears to be historically bad.

Don’t overthink it, even though it’s the Bengals.  Start ‘em.

Cincinnati Bengals Week 4 projection: 13 or fewer points allowed, 4 sacks, 2 INTs

Other D/ST units I like in Week 4: San Francisco (vs STL); Buffalo (at Miami); Chicago (vs DET)

Sit ‘Em: Denver Broncos (vs Dallas Cowboys)

The Broncos currently have the #1 rated defense in Yahoo. However, remember that two of their games have come against the two worst offenses in football: Cleveland and Oakland.

This week, Denver plays Dallas, which has the best backfield trio in the league. The Cowboys aren’t explosive enough in the passing game to put up huge numbers on Denver, and Tony Romo will probably turn the ball over once or twice, but I wouldn’t expect Denver to keep getting as many sacks or holding their opponents to three points every week.

Denver Broncos Week 4 projection: 20+ points given up, 1 sack, 1 INT

Other D/ST units I don’t like in Week 4: New England (vs BAL); San Diego (@ PIT)

And other edition of Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is in the books. Chime in below to let everyone know which of my picks you agree with or disagree with (remember, you can select more than one option) and then use the comment section to pose your Week 4 questions.

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* – Philip Rivers screaming photo credit: Hugging Harold Reynolds

* – Eli Manning drunk photo credit: OddJack.com

* – Brandon Marshal photo credit: Call It Mile High

First off all, something that made me laugh out loud this morning while the morning SportsCenter was running in the background as I got ready for work. In case you didn’t hear the latest world-stopping controversy out of Minnesota, there were reports that surfaced yesterday about a “schism” in the Vikings locker room regarding the players’ support for Brett Favre.

While Brett Favre played his I’m-just-a-simpleton-from-Mississippi card and explained that he didn’t know what “schism” meant, his new teammate Jared Allen was much more hilariously eloquent in describing how big, complicated, six-letter words are so foreign to NFL locker rooms:

Jared Allen’s comments on “schism”, via The Big Lead:

“I don’t think anyone on this team knows what schism means let alone use it in a sentence form. At first I thought schism was an STD, and I was like WOAH we practice abstinence here!”

The video of him delivering the line was even funnier. He had just gotten done at practice, was all sweaty, half out of breath, and looked directly into the camera when he delivered the line. I wonder how long he’d been saving it, or how many of his teammates he tested it out on before running over to to officially deliver it to the world.

I don’t really care one way or the other; it’s the funniest (and certainly the most ironic) line from an NFL player we’ll hear all year.

(And here’s an early nominee for funniest message board post discussing this situation, from BoxDen.com: “hes #69 for a reason abstinence my ass”)

And for anyone else who is still wondering what a “schism” actually is, here is the dictionary definition…and then here is a video that defines it even better in lovely, melodic tones as only Tool can deliver:

And speaking of weird videos, did you all see Brandon Marshall at Broncos practice yesterday? Kudos to whoever described him as acting like an ass clown, because that’s about the most apt way to describe it that I can think of:

Video: Brandon Marshall Acting Like an Ass Clown at Practice

Acting like a petulant child is definitely the way to go when you want to get traded and get a new contract. Umm…not. (Actually, this is the NFL we’re talking about, so maybe Marshall is onto something.)

Marshall was, of course, in full damage control mode this morning, but there is a good chance that this video will stick with him for the rest of his career, kinda like TO doing push-ups in his driveway. (And TO’s only gotten two fat new contracts since that display…so take that Brandon Marshall! Wait a minute…)

I wonder what Josh McDaniels is thinking right about now. What’s the over-under on how many games the Broncos win this year? 3.5? I might be tempted to take the under.

Update: Now we know exactly what Josh McDaniels is thinking: Eff you Brandon Marshall.

Via ProFootbalTalk, the Broncos have suspended Brandon Marshall for “conduct detrimental to the team” (i.e. acting like an ass clown).

Enjoy your Friday everyone.  I’ll Be back later if anything hot comes up and will definitely have a link post up this afternoon.

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* – Jared Allen photo credit: Tom Olmscheid via USAToday.com