One, you are in your league’s championship round and looking for some advice as you try to make the most important lineup decisions of the season. We congratulate you, and we’re here for you. Skip ahead and start soaking in the analysis as you go for your league’s equivalent of The Shiva.

Two, you are in your league’s semifinal round, which means that you play your championship in Week 17. We’re still happy to help you make lineup decisions, but just know that we vehemently disagree with how your league is setup and blame you personally for going along with it.

Or three, you are devastated after a bad beat in Week 15 and engaging in the masochistic act of still reading fantasy football analysis even though you have nothing left to play for. This is pathetic and you should should be ashamed of yourself. Get over it man (or woman). Still though, we feel your pain. We’ve been there. So we welcome your wandering eyes as well.

I suppose you could also be in some kind of keeper league that uses the consolation bracket to help determine next year’s draft order (something we do highly encourage as a great idea) or a league in which money is doled out for third place (a less great idea). Either way, we group you with the first set of folks who still need advice even in Week 16.

Okay, onto this week’s Start/Sit picks…for anyone and everyone who may have stumbled upon this post today.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB – Matt Moore

Matt Moor-ino has been very solid the past seven games for which he’s been healthy, putting up at least 13 points in six of them. He’s not at all a high-profile name, but if you don’t have a top 12 QB, or Tim Tebow, I would look at giving Moore the nod in Week 16.

His best WR, Brandon Marshall, has been a TD-machine as of late, and they will also be playing the porous New England passing defense.

If you don’t have another option, look at Moore. You might even be able to pick him up off of the waiver wire.

Matt Moore fantasy football Week 16 projection: 285 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 yards rushing

Other Start Em QBs:

• Tim Tebow – On the road in Buffalo…depending on weather…he may RUSH for 100 yards…and throw in a few TDs as well.
• Mike Vick and Tony Romo – Let’s just say, I don’t think there will be a lot of great defense in this game on Saturday.

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hopefully, you got off of the Fitzpatrick bandwagon in week six…but he is still the #12 ranked fantasy QB and presents a LITTLE value from week to week based on matchups.

Not this week.

The Denver defense is incredibly over-rated (They are ranked 22nd overall, Tebow-haters. That’s a fact. Don’t try to argue against it.), but they have been much better against mediocre offenses. Fitzpatrick should have plenty of trouble against Denver’s speedy linebackers. Most of Buffalo’s offense has come on the ground lately, anyways…don’t expect that to change in week 16.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 16 projection: 225 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit Em QBs:

• Andy Dalton – This is not your “beginning-of-the-year-Cardinals-secondary” (stats forthcoming).
• Carson Palmer – We should all just sit him out of principle at this point, don’t you think?

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em RB – CJ Spiller

Spiller has had GREAT days two of the last three weeks, including his monstrous 28-point performance last week. If the weather is bad in Buffalo this weekend, look for Spiller to have another breakout.

On wet/slippery/cold fields, the offense ALWAYS has the advantage – especially shifty playmakers like CJ Spiller.

CJ Spiller fantasy football Week 16 projection: 75 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 50 yards receiving, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs:

• Kendall Hunter – Look for Hunter (who has looked absolutely AWESOME at times) to carry a little larger load down the stretch run of the season as Jim Harbaugh tries to keep Frank Gore fresh for the post-season.
• DeAngelo Williams – Favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, and plus, doesn’t he seem to KILL everybody in the fantasy playoffs like every single year?

Sit Em RB – Marshawn Lynch

Man. What a tough one. I absolutely LOVE Beast Mode. He’s been an absolute fantasy stud the past several weeks. This brings us to the age-old quandary, “Do you play the stud, or do you sit him because of the matchup?”

98% of the time, I would say you should always play the stud. But this year’s San Francisco run defense is FAR from ordinary. Through 14 weeks games, they have not allowed one single rushing touchdown all year!

It’s possible you have NO other options at RB and are forced to start Lynch, but if you have 2 or 3 other guys you like, don’t hesitate to sit Lynch against one of the best run defenses ever – that’s not hyperbole.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 16 projection: 60 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em RBs:

• Mike Tolbert – I think Mathews gets most of the touches this week.
• Ryan Grant – The Bears’ defense is great, and they will keep Grant blocked in all day.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR – Plaxico Burress

A complete hunch…but I think this is one of those weeks where he has like 4 catches for 28 yards…and TWO touchdowns.

He’s been pretty quiet lately, and the Giants will definitely be focusing on stopping the Jets’ running game. I think the Jets will counter by trying to give Sanchez some easier throws…and as bad as he is at times, Sanchez can throw that fade on the sideline very well. Look for Plax to get several looks in the red zone this week.

Plaxico Burress fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 28 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start Em WRs:

• DeSean Jackson, Laurent Robinson, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant – Yes, I’m predicting at least 10 points for ALL of these WRs this week.
• DeMariyus Thomas – He’s actually the #1 WR in fantasy over the last three weeks. Tebow loves him, and he should have another good day in Buffalo this week.
• Victor Cruz – Read below.

Sit Em WR – Hakeem Nicks

Darrelle Revis is an awesome CB…but he’s slightly less awesome when he has to move inside and cover the slot WR. I expect Revis to stay outside and try to shut down the Giants’ deep threat this week. Victor Cruz will be the primary beneficiary as Eli will have to check down to him constantly.

Nicks MIGHT get free on one or two deep balls, but if he doesn’t (or if he drops them when perfectly thrown, like he did last week), he will be a fantasy disappointment in Week 16.

Hakeem Nicks fantasy football Week 16 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other Sit Em WRs:

• Brandon Lloyd – Against Pittsburgh AND he’s banged up AND the Rams have QB issues.
• Reggie Wayne – I’m finally turning on him…he’s just nothing without Peyton Manning. It’s a good thing it took me sixteen weeks…

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End – Greg Olsen

Cam LOVES his tight ends in the red zone, and look for Olsen to be the recipient this week.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 16 projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em Tight End – Owen Daniels

The big fella is banged up, and I expect Houston to pull him as soon as they can tonight against the Colts. If they get up big, look for all of Houston’s studs to sit.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 16 projection: 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TDs

Fantasy Football Week 16 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em Defense – ARIZONA CARDINALS

This is my game-changing pick of the week.

Did you know that the Cardinals defense has been improving all year, and that in the last seven weeks, they have only allowed EIGHT touchdowns.

I’ll let you guess where that ranks, league-wide.

Anyway, they will be playing a good Cincinnati team, but a team whose offense is definitely not “lights out” by any means.

If you don’t have one of the top three defenses, go ahead and swoop up the Arizona defense…to the surprise of everyone. And then dominate them this week to win your league.

Sit Em Defense – Detroit

All flash, no substance…especially against a rejuvenated San Diego offense. I would stay away from BOTH defenses in this game.

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Best of luck in Week 16 everyone! We’ll be here all week answering questions in the comment section, and we will have our weekly live chat on Saturday this week. We’ll see you then!

For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.

For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.

For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.

And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?

Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.

My apologies to those who came looking for Jon. I’m taking the start/sit reins today. I will do my very best to get you set up for success in this most pivotal of weeks.

Also, no looking back to Week 13, but not because it was a bad week. Frankly, I don’t know. I don’t even remember Jon’s picks. I assume some worked and some didn’t, like any week. But with the stakes now raised, there is no time for the rearview mirror. We look forward.

Here are your Week 14 start/sit picks:

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Matthew Stafford, DET (vs MIN)

Put this one in the no-brainer category.

Frankly, I feel a little bad making it the start em pick at QB, because it’s the equivalent of taking candy from a baby.  Nonetheless, it’s here, because if you own Matthew Stafford you absolutely must have him in your lineup this week.

And it all boils down to matchup.

If you watched the Broncos-Vikings game last week, you saw Broncos wide receivers running around wide open all day, providing easy pitch and catch opportunities for the not-so-renowned-as-a-thrower Tim Tebow. If Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker could do that against Minnesota, what do you think Stafford, Megatron, Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew will do?

Chances are they’ll pick up a few dumb penalties…and a lot of passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if Stafford, at home in a must win game for the Lions, ends up as the top scoring player in fantasy football this week, even though I’m going to be a little conservative with my projection.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 14 projection: 345 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start em QBs for Week 14:

• Rex Grossman faces a New England defense that made Dan Orlovsky startable last week. I would not start Grossman in a standard league, but he’s a solid two-QB league option this week; or a desperation fill-in with upside if your QB slot got hit by the injury bug.
• Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers Monday night, against a pretty good defense too. With his weapons healthy, and Buffalo on the schedule, Rivers is safe to deploy this week.
• Every week I scan for who is facing the Colts. This week it’s Joe Flacco. Play Joe Flacco. Even though the Ravens will likely run, run, run against Indianapolis, Flacco will throw enough to be useful. At the very least, he’s safe.

Sit Em QB: Michael Vick, PHI (at MIA)

Don’t do it. Don’t even think about it.

I know that Michael Vick owners are salivating at the thought of Vick returning this week and leading them to fantasy glory down the stretch, but in a one-QB league I wouldn’t even think about starting Vick unless I didn’t have another top 20 option. There are two good reasons:

1. Can you really trust Vick to stay healthy? No, you can’t. Really, you can’t trust him to stay healthy any week, but I’m especially leery about starting him without seeing him play a game since the rib injury.
2. Have you seen what the Dolphins are doing lately? They’ve won four out of five games, giving up a total of four touchdowns in that span.

With so many elite QBs outperforming Vick this season, and many marginal ones with good matchups, why would you risk your one QB spot on Vick?

Don’t do it.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 14 projection: 200 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, 1 total TD, 1 turnover

Other sit em QBs for Week 14:

• Those of you who relied on Andy Dalton early in the season need to look elsewhere. He’s starting to hit a rookie wall…and this week that wall is Houston and its ball control offense and stingy D.
• I’m not necessarily telling you to sit Tim Tebow, because he always finds a way to put up at least serviceable fantasy numbers. That said, don’t expect a reprise of last week when he faces the Bears.
• Josh Freeman has been a major disappointment this year. I know that Philip Rivers torched Jacksonville Monday night, but the JAX defense has been pretty stingy overall this year. There is more reason to trust Jacksonville’s D than to trust Freeman.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Mathews, SD (vs BUF)

As with the Stafford selection, I feel like I may be insulting your intelligence a bit with this pick; however, because Mathews has been so up and down, and because people always ask about him in the comment sections and live chats, I feel compelled to make my Week 14 love for him official.

First, consider that Mathews is red hot. He has two straight 100-yard games, and on Monday night he torched Jacksonville for 112 yards on a mere 13 carries. He also got into the end zone, which he doesn’t always do.

Second, consider his Week 14 opponent, the Bills, who are very generous to opposing running backs. And with Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game getting going, there will be plenty of space for Mathews to roam; and we know how much he loves space.

Ryan Mathews fantasy football Week 14 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD, 15 yards receiving

For the record, Mathews is clearly the #1 option in San Diego now over Mike Tolbert, though Tolbert still has some value as a flex option because he he’ll catch a few passes and get some goalline carries. But there is no debate right now between the two. Mathews is the guy.

Other start em RBs for Week 14:

• These should go without saying, but just to be sure: Ray Rice (v IND); Rashard Mendenhall v (CLE); Maurice Jones-Drew (v TB); Michael Turner (at CAR) – they are all top 10 options because of their proven ability and matchup.
• Adrian Peterson is supposed to play this week, at least that’s what I’m hearing. DO NOT ASK ME IF YOU SHOULD START HIM. Yes, you should. If he plays, he starts, even if the opponent is San Francisco (it’s not, it’s Detroit). End of discussion.
• Reggie Bush has to keep starting; and frankly, you should feel good about it at this point. With the Dolphins set to face the porous Eagles’ run defense, you should actually feel great about it.
• Shonn Greene is getting ready for another December heat up. He scored three TDs last week and faces the Chiefs this week. I like it.
• Looking deeper, C.J. Spiller is a decent option. He had 22 touches two weeks ago and 17 touches last week, and he’s picked up a few chunks under 200 yards with a TD during that span. You saw what MJD did the Chargers in a losing effort last week. Spiller could do about 75% of that…which is still good.

Sit Em RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB (at JAX)

Coming off of two 100-yard games, Blount looked like a surefire, slam dunk start against Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers have been the most generous defense to opposing running backs this year. What did Blount do? He punched 19 yards out of 11 carries. Yuck.

When it gets to playoff time, fantasy football is a lot like real football: you have to go with guys you can trust. It’s great that Blount has the potential for highlight reel leaps and thunderous trucks in any given week. He also can lay super eggs like he did last week. I don’t like kind of variance in my fantasy lineup in must-win scenarios.

Plus, I don’t like Blount’s matchup this week. Forget about what the Chargers did to the Jags last week. Jacksonville was dealing with turmoil galore and just happened to run into a Philip Rivers-led buzzsaw that was finally healthy. San Diego would have put up 20+ on San Francisco Monday night. Make no mistake: Jacksonville has a good defense, and they’ve been pretty stingy to opposing backs all year.

With Tampa Bay being frighteningly inconsistent as a team this year, and Blount dealing with a few unexpected distractions, I’m leaving him on my bench.

LeGarrette Blount fantasy football Week 14 projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit em RBs for Week 14:

• Every week you should go down the list of running backs and see who is facing San Francisco. This week it’s Beanie Wells. Sit him. Even with the 49ers likely to be without Patrick Willis, they’ll shut down Arizona’s run game. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to fear Wells getting hurt mid-game. Add it up, and I don’t trust him this week, despite his strong play of late.
• Cedric Benson owners have a tricky decision this week. Benson faces a very good Houston defense, but he has also proven that he can produce against good defenses even when he isn’t racking up yards (see his 41-yard, 2-TD day versus Baltimore). Benson is not an automatic sit because of how big a part of Cincy’s offense he is, but he’s only a borderline top-20 guy because of the matchup, so if you’re loaded at RB he’d be the guy to leave on the bench.
• Did you know the Falcons have the 5th-stingiest fantasy defense against the run? It’s true. That means that there could be fewer points to go around for Cam, DeAngelo, and JStew this week. Since Cam seems to be the one who gets most of the TDs, I’d consider leaving the other two on my bench unless desperate. (Remember: all that production the last two weeks has come against Indy and Tampa.)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Jabar Gaffney, WAS (v NE)

Yes, I realize that by telling you to start Jabar Gaffney that I am essentially asking you to have faith in Rex Grossman; but I urge you not to look at it that way. Think about it more in terms of me telling you to not trust a Patriots secondary that gives up more average points per game to opposing wide receivers than any other defense in football.

You read that right. In fact, the Patriots give up 2.3 more fantasy points to opposing WRs than even the moribund Vikings do! Here, I’ll prove it.

Plus:

• Gaffney has 12 catches for 187 yards over the last two weeks, including one touchdown.
• Santana Moss has been back for the last two weeks, but he only has nine catches for 71 yards; so clearly he is a) the second option for Grossman and b) helping to draw attention away from Gaffney.
• Fred Davis is suspended, meaning more targets to go around; and surely a few of those targets will go Gaffney’s way.

Gaffney doesn’t score with enough regularity to trust him for TD production, so that makes him barely a top-20 option; but I think you can trust him to give you 6-8 catches and close to 100 yards. If you play three wide receivers, it’s nice to be able to bank on that from one of them.

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 14 projection: 7 catches, 90 yards, .5 TDs (because I think he’ll catch one, but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t…so don’t expect it.)

Other start em WRs for Week 14:

• I like Torrey Smith this week. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but Baltimore has faced the 49ers and Browns, two teams that have been pretty good against opposing receivers. This week Baltimore faces Indianapolis. Yes, I just chuckled devilishly too.
• Laurent Robinson was finally held out of the end zone last week, but he still amassed 70+ yards on four catches. With Miles Austin slated to return this week, you might be tempted to sit Robinson. I wouldn’t. Tony Romo trusts him, and the Giants are generous to opposing wide receivers. Of the two, give me the guy who has been playing the last two months and caught seven TDs in six games.
• I wouldn’t get down on Steve Smith despite his decreasing production the last month. Atlanta will force Carolina to pass, and the Panthers are without Brent Grimes in the secondary. I expect fireworks from the original Steve Smith.
• When he’s healthy, all Malcom Floyd does is produce. He’s healthy, the matchup is good, and I don’t care if he’s third fiddle in SD’s passing game. Start him.

Sit Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, STL (at SEA)

I’ve been high on Lloyd ever since he came over to St. Louis, and most of the time I’ve been right. Even though the Rams’ offense sucks, Lloyd has been able to carve out a niche as the lone consistent fantasy producer. I’m not sure how he’s done it, but he has.

Last week, however, Lloyd tallied only one catch against the mighty 49ers, and things aren’t looking too good this week. Not only is Sam Bradford dinged up, but his normal backup A.J. Feeley is hurt too. That means that…wait for it…Tim Brandstater could be starting at QB for St. Louis.

Combine the Rams’ woeful offense with this QB uncertainty, and then mix in Seattle’s underrated defense at home, and you have a recipe for a sit ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 40 yards

Other sit em WRs for Week 14:

• Dwayne Bowe is on Revis Island this week, and he still has Tyler Palko tossing him the pigskin. Just didn’t want you to forget.
• I’m not telling you to sit them automatically, because both have been consistently productive this year, but just know that Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are facing the stingiest pass defense in the league. Granted, the Browns’ pass D numbers are skewed because teams just gash them with the run…but still, 12 weeks is a long time and receivers underperform against Cleveland on a weekly basis. If you have comparable options, go with them this week.
• The Redskins are stingier than you might think against opposing wide receivers. Play Gronk and Wes Welker for sure, but this is a week when Deion Branch doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
• Remember what I said above regarding my dislike for variance? Well, Julio Jones is the poster boy for wide receiver variance this year. Since Carolina is actually decent against the pass, Jones is another guy who is not an automatic sit…but who I’d have a hard time starting in a must-in situation because of how unpredictable he is.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow, TB (at JAX)

See, I don’t completely hate the Buccaneers (though I did decide to use a picture of Kellen Winslow in a Browns uniform…just because) nor irrationally love Jacksonville.

Despite their defensive consistency this year (minus Week 13) Jacksonville hasn’t been great against opposing tight ends. They actually give up the third most fantasy points per week to them.

Combine this with my distrust in the Bucs’ running game, and the Bucs’ inconsistency at wide receiver this year, and Kellen Winslow seems like, at worst, a safe and reliable option this week. You could do worse from your tight end in a big spot.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 14 projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, .5 TDs (again, I’m splitting the difference here; because of the matchup I think he can get one, but he only has two on the year.)

Other start em TEs for Week 14:

• If you’re desperate, consider Kevin Boss. The Packers give up more points to opposing tight ends than anyone, and the Raiders have had constant issues with their wide receivers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are big but inconsistent names who I think you should trust this week because of matchups.

Sit Em TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN (v HOU)

It’s tough to put Gresham here, because he’s been playing much better lately; and he really should have two more touchdowns if controversial calls had gone his way. Still, the Texans’ defense locks down opposing tight ends like few others, so as tough as Gresham is to sit, it’s even tougher to trust him.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 14 projection: 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other sit em TEs for Week 14:

• Scott Chandler has actually been decently productive without scoring touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, his production has come against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams that are more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chargers are.
• Aaron Hernandez is far from a must-sit, but he is no longer 1b to Rob Gronkowski’s 1a in New England. Gronk is clearly #1, with Hernandez picking up the scraps as #2. That still usually means 4-5 catches and 45-50 yards per week, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. Project accordingly.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v STL)

The Seahawks have been a better fantasy defense than you might think this year, and they typically play better at home. Mix in a little Tim Brandstater (if Sam Bradford can’t go) and you have all the makings of a safe, potentially explosive fantasy defense for Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 10 or fewer points, several sacks, 2+ turnovers

Other start em D/STs for Week 14:

• The Broncos should get Von Miller back, and they get to face a Bears’ offense that is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.
• The New York Jets have fallen quite a way from the must-start-against-anyone status of a couple years back, but I do like them this week against the Kansas City Palkos.

Sit Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (v NYG)

The Cowboys have been too up and down for my tastes this year. While Demarcus Ware is always around to get some sacks, and Eli Manning could always revert back to 3-INT Eli, I think this game will be a shootout, and frankly I don’t really want any part of either defense.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, two sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs for Week 14:

• Detroit’s defense might seem inviting against the 2-10 Vikings, but remember that Suh is out, Peterson is back, and Ponder-to-Harvin has become one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately; yet, even with that, and the fact that I’m telling you to sit Michael Vick this week, the presence of LeSean McCoy and Andy Reid still scares me enough to say that I wouldn’t want the Dolphins’ D starting for me in a must-win situation. The Eagles’ may suck, but they do have explosive capabilities that could, well, explode at any minute.

And that’s it! Another successful start/sit column in the books. Now it’s on to your questions. Have at the comment section, and we’ll be back all week to answer.

Also, since several of you have asked how you can help support MSF for the time we take, quite joyfully, to help you with your fantasy teams each week, I’ll just suggest checking out Daily Joust. You’ve seen me discussing them a lot this season, and they really do have a fun package of weekly fantasy games for you to play, from college to pro. Shoot, Keith Mullett thinks it’s “the best alternative to fantasy sports and gambling ever.“

Click here or on the image below, and if you become a paying member at Daily Joust we’ll end up getting a cut of the money. No pressure, just a suggestion that I’d make regardless of our affiliate status with them, and one that would help us out if you obliged.

Note: I used ESPN’s Points Against tool as a reference while writing this post.

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“I love the NFL, and I need my start/sit advice for Week 13, but I’m just SO pumped for the Big Ten Championship game this weekend that I can’t even think about it!”

You’re in luck!

Click here (or here for a work-friendly page) and comment, “I want tickets!!!!” in order to win FOUR free tickets to the Big game this weekend between Michigan St. and Wisconsin, courtesy of our friends at Verizon.

Seriously…that’s all you have to do.  What have you got to lose? We’re even going to save you time by helping you out with your start em, sit em questions in this post and in the comment section!

Now on to week 13.

A Quick Piece of Advice…One More Time

There is no room left for excuses.  At this point in the season, we have ALL dealt with injuries.  We have ALL battled through our bye weeks.  We have ALL left points on the table.

If I could give you one piece of advice before the stretch run, it would be something I have emphasized all year: listen to expert advice…but trust your gut first.

Again, none of us have the time to really study fantasy football full time.  It is impossible (well, for those of us who have real jobs) to completely keep track of every single player, every matchup, every injury, and every game.  If you don’t have a good read on a player or a matchup, you should definitely consult “the experts.”

However, so much of fantasy football comes back to gut feelings.

If you have a gut feeling that Ryan Grant is going to run all over the Giants this week, and that gut is based on some stats or game play that you have actually seen, go for it!  Even if the expert disagrees, I would rather go down on my own terms.  Believe me, you will hate yourself if Grant goes off and you started Chris Johnson just because that’s what the expert said.

If you are ambivalent and have no opinion, seek counsel…but don’t be afraid to trust your gut on the tough calls.

Last Week’s Picks: 17 for 25 (68 %)

• Hits: Matt Moore, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu, Mike Tolbert, KC Running Backs, Percy Harvin, Laurent Robinson, Anquan Boldin, Devin Hester, Jermichael Finley
• Misses:  Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Garcon (picked the wrong Colt), Mario Manningham, Johnny Knox, Kellen Winslow

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: QB

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow

Fantastic matchup against a Minnesota team that has been reeling lately without Adrian Peterson.

Tebow and the Broncos will be playing in the dome up in Minnesota, which means both he AND Von Miller will play even faster.  I expect Tebow to run wild and for Miller and the incredibly fast Broncos’ defense to force several turnovers.

If Tebow gets a few shots with a short field, he should put up a lot of points this week.

Still not convinced?  He’s 21st in points this year…after starting only 6 games. He’s only 11 points behind Jay Cutler.  Tebow is a must-start right now as the fantasy playoffs approach…amazing.

Tim Tebow Fantasy Projections for Week 13: 200 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Philly QB – Whether it’s Vick or Young, I think that the Eagles will explode in a game that doesn’t matter.
• Tony Romo – In Arizona, against their atrocious secondary.
• Alex Smith – Enticing matchup against St. Louis in a game that the 49ers want to win big in order to get their mojo back.

Sit Em QB: Matt Ryan

You might be tempted to start Matty Ice this week since Houston will be starting T.J. Yates with Jake Delhomme waiting in the wings.  While it’s true that Atlanta should get more chances than normal, Houston’s defense is one of the top five units in the league, and should make it incredibly tough sledding on Matt Ryan.

If Houston can control clock at all with their fantastic running game, Matt Ryan owners will be in for a long afternoon.

Matt Ryan Week 13 Fantasy Projection: 220 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Twelve:

• Andy Dalton – He’s really good…but so is Pittsburgh’s defense.
• QB’s in the KC/Chi game – LOL…don’t even look at this game.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I’ve been skeptical of Tebow from a fantasy standpoint ever since he took over the starting job, mostly because I worried about him getting pulled. But with a 5-1 record, the playoffs in reach, and Kyle Orton gone, Tebow is safe through the end of the year. And this is a great matchup, even though Minnesota’s strength is against the run. I’d play him.

I agree that Ryan’s potential is a bit muted this week. Loved him last week, lukewarm on him this week.

Tony Romo is a top 5 fantasy QB this week. Start him. With confidence. (Which means, since it’s Romo, that you should expect him to suck. Because wouldn’t that just be the Romo thing to do?)

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 13: RBs

Start Em RB: LeGarrette Blount

Blount is ranked 30th overall among fantasy running backs right now, so that makes him on the cusp of starting nearly every single week.  This week, he’s a must start against Carolina.

In fact, Blount may have the best fantasy week among ALL running backs in week 13.

Carolina’s run defense is so bad they made Donald Brown relevant last week.  Just imagine what someone with actual talent will do against them.

LeGarrette Blount’s Week 13 Projected Stats: 180 rushing yards, 2 TD; 55 receiving yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Twelve:

• LeSean McCoy – If he only gets ten rushes this week, we will all light ourselves on fire.
• Chris Johnson – He’s back, and facing the Buffalo defense.  Big week again for CJ2K.
• Denver Broncos….duh.

Sit Em RB: Shonn Greene

I admit that this is a complete hunch.  I try to base nearly all of my predictions on statistical evidence or game play that I have actually seen…but I feel compelled to put Shonn Greene on the bench this week.

First of all, Washington has a pretty decent defense, especially on the ground (13th in yards per attempt). Secondly, I really think that they will try to make Mark Sanchez win two consecutive games.  I really don’t think anyone will be fooled by his 4-TD performance last week.

Washington will force Sanchez to do it again in order for NY to win.  He might.  But Shonn Greene will have another lackluster effort.

Shonn Greene Week 13 Projection: 45 yards rushing

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Thirteen:

• Rashard Mendenhall – Pitt will have to win this game through the air against the Bengals.
• Detroit Running Backs – On the road in New Orleans…if this game isn’t high scoring, that means that the Saints won big.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, recommending Chris Johnson two straight weeks. I can’t believe it’s true, but it is. He seems safe. (Of course, what I really can’t believe is true is how quickly confidence has been lost in CJ. But such is the case when you have a season like he’s had.)

Be careful sitting Mendenhall. Certainly he hasn’t lived to the billing of a top 5 back (like some idiot analysts predicted before the season started…analysts who will remain nameless to protect our pride here at MSF) but he always has the potential for 80-90 yards and a score. That’s tough to find with a high degree of confidence this late in the season.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: WRs

Start Em WR: Antonio Brown

He has been a little hit or miss lately, but I think that he will have a great game against Cincinnati this week.

Brown is an absolute terror from the slot, and Cincinnati will definitely be trying to limit Mendenhall on the ground and Mike Wallace from any big plays.

Watch for Brown to play extremely well.

Antonio Brown fantasy football Week 13 projection: 9 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Twelve:

• Laurent Robinson – It seems like Romo picks a new random dude every year to become his go-to guy halfway through the season. As long as Miles Austin is out, expect Robinson to put up some good numbers. (Yes, I copied this from the last two weeks…I still feel the same way, even though Miles Austin could play this week.)
• Eric Decker – If Tebow throws for more yards, and I think he will, Decker will definitely be the number one recipient.
• Vincent Jackson – This game might as well be meaningless for San Diego…so they should win by 60.

Sit Em WR: Dwyane Bowe

The Bears defense is good…and Tyler Palko is almost as good as me.

No…I’m not good at all.

Dwyane Bowe fantasy football Week 13 projection: 3 catches for 45 yards

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week Thirteen:

• Julio Jones – Bad day for Matt Ryan AND him…Roddy White is the only ATL non-RB I like this week.
• Brandon Lloyd – I don’t know if you have heard, but San Francisco’s defense is really good.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I love Antonio Brown and am always willing to find an excuse to sit Dwayne Bowe, so I concur with those picks.

As for Lloyd, I love the 49ers defense, but I also love #1 WRs who have the trust of their QB. St. Louis will have to throw the ball, which means plenty of targets for Lloyd. Careful sitting him. He’s not a top 10 WR this week, but I think he’s still top 20.

Any #1 receiver against Minnesota is a good play, so Decker gets the nod this week.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: TEs

Start Em TE: Greg Olsen

The Tampa defense will do their best to limit Steve Smith this week, and Olsen will reap the benefits.

Greg Olsen fantasy football Week 13 projection: 7 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD

Sit Em TE: Owen Daniels

A lot of times, young QB’s = good days for Tight Ends.  But boy, is TJ Yates low on the totem pole.  Sure, he may not be Jake Delhomme, but…oh wait.

That’s right.  Jake Delhomme.

I will stop talking right now.

Owen Daniels fantasy football Week 13 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

One could also make the case that the young QB (or the old one, if Delhomme sees any action) will rely on his tight end more. Still, I wouldn’t trust any Houston pass catchers this week, and that includes Andre Johnson.

I continue to like Vernon Davis down the stretch, so consider him a top-10 option. Brent Celek is also a guy who is playing well and warrants consideration.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 13: D/ST

Start Em D/ST: Denver Broncos

Who would have thought that by Week 13 Tim Tebow would be a must-start and the Broncos’ defense would also be a must-start? Well, it’s happened. And with Denver’s relentless pass rush and solid secondary facing rookie Christian Ponder with perhaps no Adrian Peterson, the Broncos are a good choice yet again.

Denver Broncos fantasy football Week 13 projection: 14 or fewer points, 4 sacks, 2 turnovers

Other start ‘em D/ST units:

• The Patriots’ D is facing Indy. Start ‘em!
• Atlanta’s defense is a sneaky start this week. Their strength is stopping the run, which is what Houston does well. Surely they’ll be able to contain T.J. Yates. If you think Atlanta can hold Foster and Tate down, they’re worthy of starting.

Sit Em S/ST: Green Bay Packers and New York Giants

The Packers’ D isn’t a terrible option because they do force turnovers, but I expect this game to be high scoring with both quarterbacks putting up very good numbers. There just isn’t a lot of upside here on either side.

Packers and Giants fantasy football Week 13 projection: Lots of points, lots of yards, a few turnovers for the Packers

Other sit ‘em D/ST units:

• Jacksonville’s season is over, their coach just got fired, and the Chargers come in trying to salvage some pride. I think they do, and put up a lot of primetime points on the Jags in the process.
• I was high on Seattle’s defense last week, then they gave up 20+ points at home to Washington. Philly and all of its weapons comes a calling this week. No thanks.

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Good luck in Week 13 everybody! We’ll see you in the comments.

And remember: Go here and leave a comment! By doing so, you’ll be entered to win tickets to the Big Ten Championship game! (And enter quickly. We have to choose a winner tomorrow early afternoon.)

Even though some fantasy owners don’t like their guys playing so early, it could actually work in your favor if you are down a pretty big margin after the Thursday games have ended and taking a big risk is necessary.

No byes again this week, so getting a lucky matchup with your opposition missing Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte are over.

Please, enjoy your holiday and this week’s Stock Report.  (And find a replacement for Fred Jackson fast.)

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Week Stocks Up

Michael Vick

If he plays, expect big numbers.  This should be a good game all around and both Brady and Vick seem to do well under the bright lights.  His running numbers may dip a little bit so he doesn’t risk taking a big hit to his ribs but the overall production should be good.

Josh Freeman

Like I tell my friends all the time.  “No risk, no reward.”  Sounds pretty simple but for this week’s matchup against the Titans, there is no other appropriate term.  There are three types of people in this world: pessimists, optimists and realists.  I like to keep it real at all times but if you are on the fence this week, optimism should reign supreme.

Chris Ogbonnaya

The matchup doesn’t scream anything extremely positive, but the Browns do force feed their running backs the ball week to week.  For an offense that lacks playmakers, for the last couple of weeks he has been the only model of concistency.

Ryan Grant

For a player who has yet to score 10 points this season it is hard to give him a good stock report, but the circumstances are stacked in his favor this week.  If you want a bold prediction, it would be that the Lions beat the undefeated Packers on Thanksgiving; but for fantasy purposes, Ryan Grant will come out on top.

Brandon Lloyd

This year has been up and down for Lloyd. He made the move to St. Louis from Denver, and his rapport with Sam Bradford has been getting noticeably better. If anyone has dropped him to the bench, it may be time to get Lloyd back to his deserved starting spot.

Denarrius Moore

Not many Raiders are healthy, but they keep finding ways to win.  Moore is questionable, but outside of Michael Bush he looks like one of the team’s biggest playmakers.  The Bears defense is formidable, but sometimes they struggle against the pass.  If Carson Palmer can use his veteran savvy to navigate through the cover 2, Moore will have a nice game.

Owen Daniels

Time and time again it has been said that a backup quarterback’s best friend is a good running game and a pass catching tight end.  Daniels is going to have to step up this week to help Matt Leinart play well.  He has the ability to score points, so keep an eye on Daniels.

Houston Texans D/ST

For all the talk about how bad the Texans defense has been the past few years, this year they have been racking up the points on the fantasy boards.  Enter Blaine Gabbert; now put an end to any doubts you have had about this defense before.

Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Week Stocks Down

Ben Roethlisberger

The Kansas City defense got to Tom Brady early and often on Monday night.  When you think about it, the Steelers offensive line isn’t much better than that of New England’s, which could force Pittsburgh to run the ball.  Mike Wallace will still get his, but all around Big Ben probably will not be having a big day.

Andy Dalton

Seriously, I shouldn’t have even included Dalton on the Stock Report because you should already know a few obvious things.  No A.J. Green to go against the best passing defense in the NFL doesn’t scream start me.  So sit him.

Frank Gore

The Ravens, especially the defense, are tired of hearing about how good the 49ers are and how they are the only team who can stand up against the Packers in the NFC.  First thing that is going to happen is the elimination of the run game, so get Frank Gore to the bench.

Darren Sproles

The Giants do a decent job of taking away the opposing offense’s main threat.  New Orleans has the offense to hang with just about anyone, but this New York defense can and has shut down some of the best teams at times.  If they want to win, Darren Sproles will be blanketed on offense and on special teams.

Dwayne Bowe

Once a top 5 fantasy wide receiver, Bowe now finds himself in the mid 20’s.  Don’t be surprised if that number continues to fall with Tyler Palko as the man under center.  Then again who knows, the AFC west is unpredictable and Palko could turn into Tom Brady (or Kyle Orton!), which would push Bowe back up the charts. But for this week, the stock is down.

Steve Johnson

As Ryan Fitzpatrick has continued to fall off with each progressing week, it is obvious as to why his number one wide receiver has been struggling as well.  The Bills now sit at 5-5 and Johnson has a date on Revis Island.  He isn’t incapable of holding his own against the Jets, but the odds do not favor the matchup.

Jake Ballard

We all saw that drop he had on Sunday night, and while that shouldn’t make Eli Manning completely forget about his tight end, it sure did diminish his targets.  Owners can get “gassed up” from time to time when an unknown player has a big night, as Ballard did against the Patriots, but you should stay down to earth with your projections for the Giants tight end.

Denver D/ST

Who cares that Phillip Rivers has been handing out turnovers like candy this year?  If he can throw for 300+ yards, that number won’t mean much.  There is a reason the Chargers have a top 10 offense, and even though the – nice phrase here -  “mess ups” happen, this team can score.

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If you’re looking for more Thanksgiving Week fantasy analysis, we’ve got your start/sit analysis right here and here.

As I stop with the filibuster lines, let’s discuss the injuries that have begun to rear their many ugly heads.  And I’m not just talking about injuries to players on your roster. Something else to pay attention to is injuries to your players’ opponents. These can sometimes affect your guys greatly. For example, Johnathan Joseph will play this week against Tampa Bay, but his hamstring isn’t 100%.

As a matter of fact, in the NFL, after week 1 nobody is 100% anymore. This is a tough game we play we with tough decisions, and we highlight who is healthy enough and good enough to play in this week’s stock report.

Fantasy Football Week 10: Stocks Up

Mark Sanchez

Don’t look now but Mark Sanchez is having a pretty good year. Aside from that horrible game against the Ravens, his play since then, especially against the Patriots, has been fairly encouraging.

Maybe playing under the radar is what suits him best; and between the Pats and Jets, New York is the team that is playing like they want to win the division right now. Tune in Sunday at 8:20 to find out.

Reggie Bush

Fantasy points or Kim Kardashian? This is quite the perplexing question, but it goes directly to Reggie since we all know she is back on the market, so he has some decisions to make.

While he may want to have his cake and eat it too, fantasy owners have to be excited about his 6.9 ypc average over the last two weeks against some formidable defenses. He is running better every week, and when you add his catching into the equation a pleasant surprise should come from this.

Ben Tate

Don’t be afraid to play Ben Tate just because he sits behind one of fantasy’s best running backs. With Andre Johnson continuing to have issues with his hamstring, the Texans are going to do what they do best and that is run the football up and down the field.

Jerome Simpson

After seeing the early season success of the Dalton to Green connection, the truth will show whether this Bengals offense can keep them relevant in the AFC North. Four straight games against divisional opponents will pose a challenge, so if anyone needs to step up more for this team it is Simpson. The stats don’t lie, his 15.8 yard average is best on the team.

Sidney Rice

To win against the Ravens, Seattle simply won’t be able to run the ball, sorry Mr. Lynch.  If they really want to win, trying to expose the sometimes vulnerable Baltimore secondary is the way to go about it. This all hinges on the ability for the offensive line to block long enough for Tavaris Jackson to throw the ball downfield. This is truly wishful, but not absurd, thinking.

Brent Celek

14 catches over the last two weeks is good for anybody…but a tight end?  Pure excellence.

Jake Ballard

Eli Manning is a very good quarterback and he loves his tight ends. Jake Ballard is going to get a lot of looks in the red zone and for some reason teams haven’t caught on. Ride this one for as long as you want.

Fantasy Football Week 10: Stocks Down

Tony Romo

That Buffalo defensive secondary doesn’t play around when it comes to causing turnovers.  Given Romo’s history in games that are important, there isn’t a lot to be happy about when the Cowboys and Bills face off to see who is going to stay afloat in their respective divisions.

Matthew Stafford

The Bears gave Stafford his 2^nd lowest fantasy game back in week 5, but the tide could and most likely will change this week.  Chicago plays better at home, and they are tired of hearing how good the Lions are and need to keep up in the tight wild card race, so expect a tough game that is going to be rough on the offensive statistics.

Ray Rice

Are the Ravens for real?  Probably, but this week could see Joe Flacco developing some rapport with his young receivers in a game that the Ravens should win pretty easily. Rice may see some action in the passing game but as far as running the ball, the matchup isn’t good.

Rashard Mendenhall

Big Ben is arguably the most important player to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which creates a passing environment causing Mendenhall to take a back seat. In the grand scheme of things, this works out well for him as he doesn’t have to take a beating every game, but this is fantasy and that is no good for us.

Julio Jones

Atlanta knows that if they want to beat the Saints, running the football up and down the field is really the only option. Besides, New Orleans is so well coached that letting an upstart like Jones go off again for a 100+ yard game with a couple scores is out of the question.

Brandon Lloyd

Aside from a mental lapse by the whole defense in week one, nobody, and I mean nobody can say they have given Joe Haden problems this year. Plug in the fact that Lloyd and Bradford are still extremely new to each other, it is going to be some time before the gaudy fantasy numbers that owners are hoping for will surface.

New England TE’s

Who do you feel is the best team in the AFC East right now?  The Jets are playing like it right now, and they have a big home game against the Pats on Sunday. During the meeting in week 5, Gronkowski and Hernandez went on to score a combined 8 points. For all the doubters out there downing the Jets defense, know that it is still elite and will cause some problems for these guys.

Falcons D/ST

A “recurring theme” is the term that best explains what happens to defenses that go up against Drew Brees, and that theme is points given up. We used to be able to say that about Phillip Rivers, but I’ll put the salt down for now. As for the Falcons, this season has been somewhat of a disappointment, and when teams are down, the Saints go for the jugular. If the offense can stay on the field long enough, then things should be ok for this defense…but it doesn’t look that way with Brees and Co in town.

In my opinion though, the hardest thing is staying in the present.

What do I mean?

Well, not only do you have to keep track of all of your players -  every rookie, waiver wire guy, and breakout performer on both your regular teams and weekly fantasy football teams – but you also have to be able to forget about the past and the future.

Who cares if Fred Jackson was bad last week…how will he do THIS week?

I know LeGarrette Blount’s prognosis for the rest of the year looks bleak…but can he give me one more week of solid production?

Most importantly, you have to remember that nobody can be perfect; and no matter how much you know, sometimes the athletes just have bad days.  (Yes, Jerod…I’m talking to you.  I will take my Tim Tebow, Fred Jackson, and Julio Jones predictions with me on my way to a big time network.)

[Editor's note: FINE! GO! I presciently told some people to sit Vincent Jackson and DeMarco Murray with very solid reasoning last week...you think I'm worried about losing YOU and your successful picks? HA!]

In all seriousness though, making predictions is quite hard…especially when you know it’s impossible to hit every pick out of the park.  Fortunately, I was on the money last week, nailing almost 75% of my picks.

Once again, I have to thank Verizon for helping me get there.

As you know, Verizon has hooked me up with a pretty sweet deal.  As part of our agreement, they have given me a Droid Bionic, equipped with NFL Mobile.  No matter where I am, I have instant access (on unbelievable 4G LTE speeds) to every fantasy player on my team.

Once again, I can’t talk about this enough.  Every time a new piece of technology comes out, we all ask ourselves the same question: “Is this REALLY going to be worth it?”  Sometimes, the new creation is called the iPad…and it revolutionizes everything.  Other times, it’s the iPad 2…where a company basically changed a device’s color, put a sticker, and made you waste $600.  When I heard about 4G speeds, I didn’t think twice about it.  I figured it was all a scam, and a waste of money.  Boy was I wrong.  Every time I watch my wife pull out her old-school Blackberry, and simply try to pull up google, I laugh at her.  Then, I get annoyed.  In a world full of impatient people, 4G speeds have made me a happier person.

Anyways, Verizon has helped me to stay current, and even better they have offered the MSF readers something spectacular:

Let me just repeat that again to make sure you noticed:

Verizon is offering YOU something AWESOME.  

One lucky MSF fantasy reader will get TWO free tickets to this weekend’s Colts/Jaguars game in Lucas Oil Stadium. All you need to do is comment on the bottom of this page in order to enter.

Yes, it’s as easy as asking a start/sit question about your fantasy team, which you probably were going to do anyway.

Just be sure to tag your comment with #indy so we know you can actually go to the game if you win.

Scroll to the bottom for more details, but believe me you won’t want to miss this crazy awesome opportunity.

As always, we begin this week’s post with a quick recap of last week’s picks.  (And also, don’t forget: the Raiders and Chargers play this Thursday Night, so make sure you set your rosters now!)

Last Week’s Picks: 16 for 22 (73 %)

• Hits: Matt Ryan, Tim Tebow, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson, Nate Washington, NE Wide Receivers, Jake Ballard, and Scott Chandler
• Misses: LeGarrette Blount, Beanie Wells, Roy Helu, Plaxico Burress (by a half-yard), Dustin Keller, and Vernon Davis.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Quarterback

Start Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ Dallas)

Is Dallas’ defense better this year?  Yes.

Has it regressed in recent weeks?  Yes.

Is their passing defense still below average?  Yes.

Is Fitzpatrick coming off of a rough week and ready to showcase his Harvard pedigree?  Who knows.  I think he is.  And I think that he’s a must-start this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week 10 projection: 290 yards, 3 TDs.

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Mark Sanchez – Not that he’s good…but New England’s pass defense is BAD.
• Philip Rivers – Very favorable matchup against a reeling Oakland defense.  Hey, you would be reeling too if your coach just traded TWO #1 draft picks for Carson Palmer.
• Tony Romo – He’s been pretty good at home this year, and Buffalo’s pass defense is atrocious.

Sit Em QB: Jay Cutler (v Detroit)

I actually REALLY like Jay Cutler.

I think he’s a really good quarterback, and he’s incredibly underrated for reasons that are completely unrelated to his actual play on the field.  Unfortunately for him, his offensive line has been, let’s just say…below average this year.  And in Week Ten, he will be matched up against the Detroit defensive line that is coming off a bye.

Yikes.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 10 projection: 240 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.  8 sacks.

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Ten:

• Andy Dalton – He’s good…but Pittsburgh’s pass defense is better.
• Eli Manning – As I’m sure Jerod will note, San Francisco MIGHT have the best defense in the league…Eli might not be ELI-TE this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I like Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but I don’t want to take him out for Valentine’s Day dinner, get down on one knee, and give him a ring…as you seem to want to do. Fitzpatrick has actually thrown 3 TD passes in a game twice this year, but both came in the first two weeks of the season. The league has caught up to Buffalo since them. Fitzpatrick is a solid start at QB, but hold off the Washburnian marriage proposals.

I’m fine with sitting Cutler against Detroit. The Lions’ D-Line is at least 5X better and tougher than the Eagles’, so I can see this game going much, much differently.

As for Eli struggling against the 49ers, yes I think it will be tough for him. Still, I think Eli is a borderline top-10 QB this week because the way to beat San Fran is through the air – you do not run on them – and frankly, Eli deserves as much respect as any non-Aaron Rodgers QB in the league this year. So sit him at your peril.

Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em Picks for Week 10: Running Back

Start Em RB: DeAngelo Williams (v Tennessee)

Coming off a bye, Williams will be fresher than he’s been all year.  He’s also playing a Tennessee defense that is ranked 23rd in the league against the run.  With an increased emphasis on stopping Cam Newton, I expect the Panthers to respond by pounding it out on the ground just like old times.

I actually like Jonathan Stewart this week as well, but I expect DeAngelo Williams to have a big game.

DeAngelo Williams fantasy football Week 10 projection: 140 total yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• All starters in the Kansas City/Denver game
• Michael Turner – Atlanta really likes to pound the ball on the ground against the Saints in order to try and control the clock.  Expect Turner to have a great game.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best (at Chicago)

He’s a little banged up, and he’s been slipping a lot lately.  The fact is, if not for a few lucky home run plays the last few games he played, Best has been a huge disappointment.  Plus, he only has 3 TOTAL TDs this season – even with Megatron’s unbelievable dominance and all.

I don’t trust Best against Chicago this week at all, even if he somehow plays.  Expect the Lions to throw it…a lot…and be successful.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 10 projection: 45 total yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week Ten:

• Knowshon Moreno – HE’S NOT GOOD!!!
• Patriots’ RBs – The Jets will make NE completely one-dimensional this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Loyal MSF fantasy readers, I cannot in good faith endorse DeAngelo Williams as a start in all but the most desperate of circumstances. Just know if you start him that DAW has had one – one – useful fantasy week all season (Week 5 v New Orleans…thanks to one big run). So trust Washburn at your own peril on this one.

As for Jahvid Best, well I can’t let this go without some lampooning, now can I? Jon, you realize you’re telling us all to sit a guy that is widely expected not to start anyway, right?

Best is dealing with yet another concussion, a problem he’s had since college. It’s sad, because he’s a talented player, but I don’t think he’ll ever be able to reach his potential because of injury.

Regardless, Best is a guy to consider dropping, not just sitting, so don’t give Washburn any bonus points next week if he correctly predicted a fantasy football invalid to be worthless.

And finally…sit Knowshon Moreno??? Really? Was that before or after Willis McGahee almost single-handedly spurred the Broncos to victory last week while Moreno had 8 total yards?

Come on Jon. You’re better than these picks; and I only feel comfortable honestly calling you out because I know our readers like you and respect you and will demand more from you.

Besides, honesty and candidness is the MSF way.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Wide Receiver

Start Em WR: Steve Breaston (Denver)

He’s quietly having a solid season, and Denver’s pass defense is very mediocre.

Look for Champ Bailey to cover Dwayne Bowe all day, and look for Breaston to run wild in the process.  This isn’t to say that Bailey will shut down Bowe; actually, I’m trying to point out that a mildly washed up Champ Bailey is Denver’s BEST defensive back, which is good news for KC WRs.

Steve Breaston fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Ten:

• Josh Cribbs – He is having a randomly solid season as well…and he should put up some nice numbers against St. Louis.
• Pierre Garcon – This week might be Indy’s best chance for a W all season.  Look for “the waiter” to have a solid day against Jacksonville.

Sit Em WR: Deion Branch (@ NY Jets)

At this point, if you are still starting New England wide eeceivers not named Wes Welker, you are DEFINITELY not staying current.  However, just in case, don’t start Deion Branch.

Darrelle Revis does NOT do a great job of defending the slot, so he will probably be matched up with Branch all day.  I shouldn’t have to say anything else.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 10 projection: No catches

Jerod’s thoughts:

I guess we don’t get any other potential sit ‘em WRs this week? Geez Jon; I know you’re distraught about the NBA lockout, but there is no reason to take it out on our loyal fantasy football readers.

Here you go folks…here are a few normally startable WRs that you may want to think twice about:

• AJ Green and the Bengals finally face a good defense, the Steelers. Be wary. The last elite defense Cincy faced was when San Fran shut Green down to the tune of 4 catches for 29 yards.
• You know I like Brandon Lloyd for the balance of the season, but I could see him struggling a bit this week in a low-scoring affair against Cleveland in which Joe Haden will surely be draped all over him.
• Mike Williams has six catches in each of his last three games for Tampa Bay, but he’s averaging less than 10 yards per catch over his last four. Last year’s TD machine isn’t producing TDs, and while I continue to profess patience with him, I’d be okay with you placing the burden of proof on him.

As for Jon’s picks, I think Breaston is a solid option at WR this week, and Deion Branch is a weekly wild card; but with Tom Brady and New England’s offense struggling, I too would sit Branch against the Jets and Revis.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Tight Ends

Start Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (@ San Francisco)

San Francisco’s defense is VERY good, especially at shutting down opposing running games. Ballard should get a lot of touches in Week Ten as Eli will probably have to throw but still be under pressure much more than he was this past week. Plus, he is gaining trust with Big Play Ballard by the week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 10 projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Ten:

• Brandon Pettigrew – Chicago has a rough time defending TEs.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark (Jacksonville)

May he Rest In Peace.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 10 projection: 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD

Jerod’s Thoughts:

Hmm…well since Dallas Clark reportedly has a “significant leg injury” I suppose that’s a pretty good Sit ‘Em pick, though I hope you won’t take credit for that as a “hit” next week.

As for Ballard, I continue to like him, so I endorse that start ‘em pick, and I think Brandon Pettigrew could have success against the Bears like Brent Celek did last week.

As for the potential misses in Week 10, I continue to look at Jermichael Finley with skepticism because he just isn’t that involved in the Packers’ offense. He wouldn’t be in my top 12 TEs for this week, and I think you’d be well within your right to place a “prove it” tag on him.

Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Picks for Week 10: Defenses

[Editor's note: the rest of this post is written by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: Miami Dolphins (v Washington)

The Dolphins have played better than their record, and their defense showed a lot in last week’s drubbing of the Chiefs. Kansas City isn’t a great team this year, but they can be explosive on offense. The Dolphins wouldn’t let them. This week they face a John Beck-led offense that could do nothing more than dump off to the running back last week against San Francisco.

Miami Dolphins fantasy Football Week 10 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 or more sacks, 1 or more turnovers

Other Start em D/ST units for Week 10:

• I know that Philly’s D has let you down this year, but against John Skelton and the Cardinals it could be very worthwhile to start them this week.
• The Detroit Lions get to face the porous Bears’ O-Line. Please tell me you aren’t fooled by the Eagles going sackless against them Monday night; the Bears O-Line remains not very good.

Sit Em Defense: Cincinnati Bengals (v Pittsburgh)

I just have a bad feeling that the Steelers are going to exact revenge on Cincy for Sunday night’s loss to Baltimore. I think a major part of it is that I don’t totally trust the Bengals’ D yet. They are good, but are they great?

Big Ben, Mike Wallace, and Antonio Brown can take full advantage of a good-but-not-great D, and I have a feeling that is what will happen here.

Cincinnati Bengals fantasy football Week 10 projection: 21 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

• Houston’s D has been great this year, but I just have a feeling they will underperform your expectations against a desperate Tampa Bay team in Tampa.
• Stay away from the Saints’ and Falcons’ defenses in Week 10. I would not be surprised if 70+ points are scored in that game.

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There are your start em, sit em picks for Week 10 of the fantasy football season. You know the drill from here. Read ‘em, digest ‘em, and then ask about ‘em. The comment section awaits your lineup-specific questions below.

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Did you miss me?

Jon has himself a busy schedule this week, so he texted me this morning and asked if I’d be up for reprising my role as the author of our weekly Start/Sit column here at MSF. I have to admit, as soon as I saw his text I was pretty pumped.

Doing these posts every week, week after week, can admittedly be a bit of a grind, as I learned over the last couple of years; so I was happy to let Jon take it over this year and focus my efforts in other areas. But I’ve missed the weekly challenge of poring over matchups and stats and trends to figure out which players to recommend to you as starts and sits.

So it’s good to be back in the saddle.

Anyway, It’s not like I’ve been totally absent. I still offer commentary on Jon’s posts, answer questions in the comment sections, and monitor the @FantasyMSF Twitter account. So I haven’t really given you a chance to miss me even if you wanted to. Now though, for the first time all year, I have to go on record with start and sit picks.

I’m ready. Let’s roll.

First up, let’s take a quick old school look back at how Jon did with his top-line start/sit picks last week:

• Start ‘em hits: Ben Roethlisberger, Dwayne Bowe, Fred Davis
• Start ‘em misses: Ryan Torain
• Sit ‘em hits: Vincent Jackson, Willis McGahee, Dustin Keller
• Sit ‘em misses: Cam Newton

Other suggestions he was slam-dunk correct on: sit Philip Rivers and Kevin Kolb; sit Larry Fitgerald and Brandon Lloyd

Other suggestions he was dead wrong on: start Matt Hasselbeck; sit Mark Sanchez; sit Jonathan Stewart; that Visanthe Shiancoe would be the “worst” tight end

Overall, a decent week for Jon. His top-line picks were solid, but some of his bolder “other” suggestions went awry. Jon has had a very strong track record this season though, so the bar is high for my relief appearance.

Here are my thoughts on who you should start and who you should sit in Week 8.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em
Lineup Advice and Projections

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 8:

• Falcons
• Bears
• Packers
• Jets
• Raiders
• Buccaneers

Several startable QBs are out this week (Rodgers, Ryan, Freeman), as are some RBs that teams have come to count on (Turner, Forte, DMC), and some top flight WRs (R. White and the Packers crew, among many others). That means that not only do you need to bone up on your waiver wire knowledge, you need to be prepared to make the key start/sit decisions at the fringes of your roster that will be the difference between winning and losing.

Lucky for you, that’s why we’re here.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em QB: Joe Flacco, Baltimore (v Arizona)

Know that I am currently writing this at 6:23 pm Central time on Monday evening. So the Monday night game between Baltimore and Jacksonville hasn’t even started. Thus, there is a chance that Flacco throws up one of his patented stinkers tonight against Jacksonville’s better-than-you-think pass defense (210 yards per game, 9 TDs heading into week 7).

Even if he does, I don’t care. You start him against Arizona and expect top 5 stats.

Here are some numbers:

• Cam Newton: 422 yards
• Rex Grossman: 291 yards
• Eli Manning: 321 yards
• Ben Roethlisberger: 361 yards

These are the yardage numbers that four of the Cardinals’ opponents have hung on their pass D this year. The two I left out were Minnesota and Seattle, because neither team had competent quarterbacking when they faced the Cardinals. Joe Flacco may not be a superstar, but he is certainly competent, and he has been a guy in the past who has put up huge numbers against inferior defenses. Consider his performance against St. Louis earlier this year, one of the few pass defenses that could be considered as bad as Arizona’s: 389 yards, 3 TDs for Flacco.

Flacco’s overall numbers are somewhat depressed by some tough matchups early in the season (Jets, Texans, Titans when they were actually trying), but don’t forget that this is a guy who has tossed at least 21 TD passes the last two seasons and who tends to get them in bunches when they come. This week will be one of those weeks when they come in bunches. Start Flacco.

Joe Flacco fantasy football Week 8 projection: 275 yards, 3 TDs

Other start ‘em QBs for Week Eight:

• Eli Manning isn’t sexy from a fantasy perspective, but you can win with him. And you can certainly win with him when he has tasty matchups like the one he has this week against Miami.
• You realize Cam Newton is a top 10 option at QB now, right? Okay, just checking. Make sure he’s in your lineup.

Sit ‘Em QB: Tim Tebow, Denver (v Detroit)

Yep, I’m going to throw some cold water on Tebowmania.

Despite finishing with respectable fantasy numbers in Week 7 (2 TDs, 200+ total yards), you really have to have watched the full game to put those numbers into context. Through 55 minutes, Tebow was hovering around negative fantasy points when you take into account his fumble, but then he led a furious five minute comeback that included most of his passing yards and both of his TDs.

A few things to keep in mind as you analyze Tebow’s chances against Detroit:

• Miami has given up 12 TD passes and picked off only two through six games, so the matchup was very favorable. Detroit, on the other hand, gives up barely 200 passing yards per game, has picked off opposing QBs ten times, and has allowed only 8 TD passes in 7 games. This matchup is not favorable.
• Miami only had eight sacks coming into Week 7 before amassing seven against on Tebow. Detroit has 17 sacks in 7 games thanks to a ferocious defensive line that makes indecisive quarterbacks pay. Tebow looked very indecisive in Week 7, which will not bode well at all for him against Suh, Avril, and Co.

I do like Tebow as a solid fantasy backup this season. He’ll be able to produce decent fantasy stats when the matchup is favorable. This one absolutely is not. In fact, it’s just about the worst matchup for Tebow at this stage in his career, especially with Willis McGahee being out and removing the Broncos’ only consistent rushing threat.

Stay far, far away…this week at least.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 8 projection: 125 yards passing, 45 yards rushing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week Eight:

• What the hell is wrong with Philip Rivers? I know Jon is as baffled as anyone. He thought Rivers would be the best fantasy QB this year, but Rivers has just 7 TDs through six games to go along with 9 INTs. He now has to face a Kansas City secondary that picked Oakland QBs off six times last week (I know it was Boller & Palmer, but still) and who Rivers hasn’t lit up historically (only 17 TDs in 12 career games). Plus the game is at Arrowhead, always a tough place to play. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think if you have a reasonable alternative, it’s time make Rivers (and by extension Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson) prove that he’s the Rivers of old before you start him with confidence.
• Be wary of Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, despite what Cam Newton did against the Redskins last week. Washington has problems, but pass defense hasn’t been one of them. The ‘Skins, now desperate after another loss, have given up only five TD passes all season long. Fitzy doesn’t pose the running threat that Cam did, so Washington should have an easier job containing him.

Jon’s thoughts:

I really don’t have much to disagree with here…although I would say I am even higher on Eli Manning than Jerod is.  He should absolutely light up the Miami secondary.

One other guy I would definitely look at starting would be Matt Hasselbeck…he will be playing against the Colts.  All I really need to say here is, “62-7.”

One more under-the-radar guy I would look at is Andy Dalton.  The Seattle secondary is nearly as bad as Arizona’s, and at this point, it looks like the Red Rifle might just be good.  Plus, he has the Rookie of the Year Runner-Up (AJ Green) on his team.  You all know how much I love him…start the Red Rifle if your guy is on a bye.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Running Backs

Start ‘Em RB: Chris Johnson, Tennessee (v Indianapolis)

Longtime readers know that when I do these start/sit posts, I try to never make my top-line picks obvious ones. Why would I tell you to start Adrian Peterson or Aaron Rodgers? That offers no one any value. So how crazy is it that in Week 8, former fantasy super-duperstar Chris Johnson warrants mention in the start ‘em category?

What’s even crazier is that some of you may think I’m crazy for trusting CJ268 (his actual rushing total this year) as my start ‘em RB!

But there is plenty of reason to expect the long-awaited CJ breakout this week, and it has everything to do with the matchup: Indianapolis. The Colts make every opposing running back look like Gale Sayers. Through seven games this year Indy is allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and has allowed 9 touchdowns. If CJ can’t have a fantasy-relevant day against them then the Titans need to sue him for fraud immediately. I’m only half joking.

With that said, keep this in mind: just because Johnson torches Indy’s run D (which I expect), it doesn’t mean he’s “back”. It just means he has a pulse. On the bright side, there are some tasty matchups upcoming on the schedule (Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indy again, Buffalo, all in the bottom third in the league in run D), so feel free to enjoy a bit of optimism if the old CJ returns on Sunday.

Chris Johnson fantasy football Week 8 projection: 140 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 5 receptions, 45 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles are both definite starts this week, and in deeper leagues or on teams especially decimated by injury or bye weeks Pierre Thomas has some value as well. It all comes down to the matchup. New Orleans faces St. Louis in Week 8, the team with by far the worst run defense in the NFL. Last week the Saints faced the team with the second-worst run D in the NFL, Indiacrapolis, and all three of these guys put up solid fantasy numbers. Sure, it’d be great if there was one guy racking up all the fantasy goodness that Sean Payton and Drew Brees create, but come 6-team bye weeks like this one, just be thankful that the Saints will give opportunities to three running backs against a team like the Rams. 
• I can’t believe I’m doing this, but Ryan Torain is probably a top 20 back in Week 8. Despite two straight awful outings after his supposed breakout a few weeks back, Torain has a) a good matchup (Buffalo, 30th against the run) and b) the starting role with Tim Hightower injured and Roy Helu apparently not yet in good enough graces with Mike Shanahan to warrant the starting nod. We’ve seen Torain produce before in Shanahan’s system when given the chance, so you can start him with some measure of confidence…but don’t come blaming me if he ends up getting five carries and doing nothing. You and I both know we’re playing with fire talking about starting a Shanny RB, but the circumstances do seem to make the risk worth the potential reward in this case.
• I probably don’t need to tell you to start DeMarco Murray after his performance last week, but just in case you were worried that he only succeeded because of the matchup, his matchup is pretty good in Week 8 too. Philly gives up 123.8 rushing yards and a TD per game. With Felix Jones expected to still be out, Murray should get the lion’s share of the work. But take note: if you can, now isn’t a bad time to try to sell high on Murray’s inflated value.

Sit ‘Em RB: Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty, Cleveland (at San Francisco)

I don’t care who is healthy, who starts, or even if Cleveland signs Jim Brown for the week to come play. San Francisco has the best front 7 in football right now. Yes, I’m serious…watch them. Remember how we all used to look at Pittsburgh, and still do with Baltimore, and consider sitting even our studs against them? If you’re not thinking of San Fran in that light now, you’re mistaken. Just trust me. I’ve watched every minute of every one of their games this year. They are legit.

Plus, even when healthy Hillis has been far from a stud this year. Not only is he not nearly as effective this year as he was for much of last year, the Browns offense has regressed, leading to very few scoring opportunities for the backs. The ceiling for Cleveland’s RBs right now is quite likely what Montario Hardesty put up in Week 7: 122 total yards on 35 touches with no TDs. And that was against Seattle, a decent but not great run D. The 49ers are giving up just 74.7 rushing yards per game and have not allowed a running TD all season. Yikes.

Unless Cleveland signs the young Jim Brown to play on Sunday, sit whoever is carrying the ball for them. And against this 49ers run D, rested after the bye, even a young Jim Brown might have trouble finding holes.

Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty combined fantasy football projection for Week 8: 65 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 8:

• Willis McGahee is out, which will lead some people to get excited about Knowshon Moreno, as will the matchup against Detroit’s less than stellar run D. I disagree. Granted, he’s not a terrible option if your lineup is decimated, but I’m waiting until he does something positive to trust him with a starting slot. Detroit will be able to stack the box against Tebow, which will make the going tough for Knowshon.
• That’s it. I’m off the DeAngelo Williams train. I’ve given him plenty of chances, and he always seems to repay me with flaming piles of turd like his 10-carry, 35-yard performance in Week 7, which was made even more frustrating by the fact that Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart ran wild against the Redskins. Make this guy have two straight solid weeks before you trust him. (And for the record, I’m not all that high on Jonathan Stewart either this week. Minnesota is good against the run.)
• Don’t get too excited about Bernard Scott, who will be filling in for the suspended Cedric Benson this week. Not only is Seattle decent against the run (105 yards per game, 5 TDs allowed) but Brian Leonard is there to siphon carries. Plus, offensive coordinator Jay Gruden clearly has confidence in Andy Dalton, AJ Green, et al, and he won’t hesitate to keep airing it out.

Jon’s thoughts:

I LOVE LOVE LOVE Ryan Torain this week.  Start him with confidence!

Also, let me pass along a quick story for all of you Knowshon Moreno lovers (I am one by the way…but this may make you wary of him as an NFL back).  Allegedly, the kid had never even played football until one day, his high school coach saw him playing tag with a bunch of kids and nobody could touch him.  He thought to himself, “Wow…that kid would make a great running back.”  The legend was born.  Anyway, Know (I have it on very good authority that this is what all of his friends call him) began torching people in high school, and even excelled in college because of his shear athletic ability.  However, he doesn’t really LOVE football like a lot of these guys, and he has never been a guy that people would describe as a “workout warrior.”  Now that he’s in the NFL, he can’t beat people just based off of his talent anymore.  Really, he’s a lot like Julio Jones.  Add all of this to the fact that the Broncos aren’t very good, and a 30-year-old with a blown apart knee has been BETTER than him all season…and I would stay away from Knowshon…maybe forever.

As for the Panthers’ running backs, I’m actually much higher on Jonathan Stewart (and not just because I own him in my league).  Minnesota is great against the run, so Williams will be neutralized.  However, Cam Newton LOVES throwing to Stewart out of the flat, and with Minnesota’s pass rush, I expect Newton to make a lot of quick, short throws to his tight ends and Stewart.  Stewart may not have a lot of yards on the ground, but I could see him approaching triple digits through the air.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, St. Louis (v New Orleans)

Regardless of whether Sam Bradford plays or not, I like Lloyd this week. In his first start with his new team last week, he compiled 6 receptions for 74 yards with A.J. Feeley at QB. That was in a blowout against Dallas. Clearly the potential for a blowout is there this week with the awful Rams going up against the juggernaut that just obliterated Indy to the tune of 62 points.

It is safe to assume that St. Louis will be passing a lot to try to keep with Brees and Co, and if they are, either St. Louis QB will surely continue to target their new toy. Plus, the Saints have given up 12 TD passes in 7 games, so they can be had through the air.

Lloyd proved last year that he’s a top flight wide receiver in Josh McDaniels’ system. He’s back with McD now, and I think he’s a possible top 10 WR from here on out, especially when you consider that St. Louis’ schedule eases up in the second half.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 8 projection: 7 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week Eight:

• After two very subpar weeks, Antonio Brown took advantage of a favorable matchup against Arizona to bust out with 7 catches and 102 yards. He has another favorable matchup against New England in Week 8. Seeing as how Bill Belichick likes to take out the other team’s #1 offensive option, the focus of the Patriots D will likely be Mike Wallace. That should provide opportunities for Brown to make a few big plays, which he’s proven he can make.
• Michael Crabtree is quickly becoming Alex Smith’s go-to guy. He had his best game of the season in Week 6 when he snared 9 passes for 77 yards. With Braylon Edwards expected to return and stretch the defense, Crabtree should have even more room to do his Cris Carter impression. Cleveland’s pass defense stats are pretty solid from a yardage perspective, but they have given up 8 passing TDs in 6 games. I have a suspicion Crabtree makes his first venture into the end zone in Week 8.
• I haven’t been very complimentary of Steve Breaston over the past few weeks, but he is starting to win me over with his consistency. Breaston has at least 50 yards in four straight games and scored two TDs against Indy in Game 5. He faces a San Diego defense in Week 8 that allowed three TD passes to the Jets’ #2 receiver, Plaxico Burress. Though Dwayne Bowe will always be the top red zone option for Matt Cassel, the QB is clearly gaining trust in Breaston, so it’s time I do too. (Take note: just because Breaston is listed doesn’t mean I consider him a slam dunk start, but as a guy that may be on your waiver wire he offers some value for those desperate with six teams on bye.)

Sit ‘Em WR: Deion Branch, New England (at Pittsburgh)

I had a really, really hard time coming up with a sit ‘em WR for this week. With six teams on bye, it’s hard to say that any top 40 WR is a sit, especially in leagues where three wide receivers start. But I didn’t want to tell you to sit someone obvious or from a crappy offense, so I’m going to step out on a limb with Branch.

I’ll give you my reasons for suggesting Branch as a sit candidate so you can see if you agree with my thinking or not:

• Pittsburgh is #1 in the NFL against the pass this year, giving up just 171.9 yards per game and only 8 TDs in 7 games.
• Branch is the fourth option in the New England passing attack behind Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski.
• Despite his ballyhooed rapport with Tom Brady, Branch has one game with zero receptions this year, another with one reception, and another with three catches. Yes, he’s had at least 69 yards receiving in four of his six games, and he’s caught two TDs, but there is a lot of inconsistency here.
• In his career, Branch averages just over 5 catches and 61.5 yards per game and against Pittsburgh, which is decent, but he’s only hit paydirt once.

I would not be shocked at all if Branch ends up having a good or even great game on Sunday. Such is the nature of New England’s offense. But I think there are plenty of reasons to think this will be another of Branch’s off weeks, so if you’re blessed with four or five good options this week despite all the byes, consider those options strongly.

Deion Branch fantasy football Week 8 projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week Eight:

• Tim Tebow is my sit ‘em QB, so clearly I don’t have much confidence in the Denver passing game. Thus, stick Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas on your benches. If you have to play one of them, Thomas is the guy I’d want based on what I saw in Week 7. 
• Reggie Wayne is really struggling. He hasn’t eclipsed 77 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 1. Tennessee may or may not be a good matchup, it just depends on which Titans team shows up, but Pierre Garcon remains the Colts WR to start right now anyway, and I’m waiting until Wayne can string together a few solid weeks in a row before thinking of him as a must-start WR again.
• Sidney Rice had a stellar 8-catch, 109-yard performance in Week 3, but his numbers have gotten steadily worse in every week since. Seeing as how he is no longer playing with his Viking buddy Tarvaris Jackson, and how not every pass D is as friendly to opposing WRs as Arizona’s is, it’s not a surprise. As long as Charlie Whitehurst is playing QB and the opponent is halfway competent against the pass, sit all Seahawks WRs unless you’re desperate.

Jon’s thoughts:

How are you not starting Steve Smith?  After watching Greg Jennings run all over the field against the Vikings, I am supremely confident that Steve Smith (a guy who plays very similarly to Greg Jennings, but is even more explosive) will have a MASSIVE day.  Steve Smith has been carrying terrible quarterbacks for…well…for forever, and now that he has someone that is better than competent, he is better than ever.  Most people probably don’t realize this, but Smith is the #4 WR in fantasy this year…yet he STILL ISN’T OWNED IN EVERY LEAGUE IN YAHOO!!!  This is unacceptable.  Start Smith with confidence this week…he could very well have the best week of anyone not named Megatron.

Jerod’s rebuttal thoughts:

Excuse me, but where did I say I’m not starting Steve Smith? Of course you start Steve Smith. I don’t want to patronize our readers, so I assume they can make obvious decisions like that. Although your note about him not being owned in all Yahoo leagues is concerning and ridiculous, so I’m glad you pointed Smith’s greatness out for the few who are unaware. But believe me, Smith is starting on any team I have.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Tight Ends

Start ‘Em TE: Jake Ballard, New York Giants (v Miami)

Do you realize that Jake Ballard has caught 11 balls for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns over the Giants’ last three games? It’s true. Many were lamenting the fact that Kevin Boss left for Oakland, and the effect it would have on Eli Manning’s stats, but Manning seems to have found a nice rapport with the Boss-like Ballard.

Fortuitously, Ballard’s Week 8 matchup is solid. Miami is one of the worst defenses in the league in terms of points given up to opposing tight ends. Add it all up, and Ballard is an outstanding start candidate this week.

Jake Ballard fantasy football Week 8 projection: 4 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week Eight:

• The Browns are also very bad at containing opposing tight ends. That means Vernon Davis needs to be playing on all rosters who have him. 
• The Cowboys are another teams that has given up a decent amount of fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. With Brent Celek coming off of his first good game of the year (4 catches, TD) he is a sneaky start if you’re desperate.
• By now, you shouldn’t need me to tell you to get Fred Davis in your lineups…do you? If so, get him in your lineups.

Sit ‘Em TE: Dallas Clark, Indianapolis (at Tennessee)

Clark did not record a catch on Sunday night after having his first Clark-like game of the season in Week 6 (6 catches, 53 yards). Tennessee is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of holding down opposing tight ends, but this selection is more based on lack of faith in the Colts offense than any confidence in the Jekyll and Hide Titans.

Clark has only scored two TDs this year and has only one game with more than four catches or 46 yards. The safer bet this season has been to take the under on those numbers, which is just about the floor for being considered a solid start option in a standard fantasy league. Let someone else pretend Dallas Clark is still the Clark of old. Don’t you make that mistake.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 8 projection: 3 catches 35 yards, 0 TD

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week Eight:

• Heath Miller‘s production has been steadily increasing, but I’m a bit worried about him in Week 8. New England is pretty good against opposing tight ends, and Miller has to score TDs to have value, as his yardage totals rarely will get you excited.
• Scott Chandler has four TDs this season, which looks really good when you’re sorting your waiver wire in desperate need of a fill-in. Don’t be fooled. Chandler hasn’t scored since Week 3 and and he has a grand total of 1 yard receiving over the last two games.

Jon’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to find tight ends who are going to have bad games from week to week, however I would consider sitting Owen Daniels as well.  Jacksonville’s defense has been very good (even though the rest of their team is awful), and even though Houston has been very good this year, Schaub hasn’t necessarily been lighting anybody up through the air.  He’s been good, but not great every week, and he’s only thrown 12 touchdown passes.  With all of that said, there may not be a better option than Owen Daniels…but I think he will have a down week on Sunday.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Em, Sit Em Picks: Defense/Special Teams

Start ‘Em D/ST: Detroit Lions (at Denver)

If you want a full explanation for why I’m recommending Detroit’s D this week, just scroll up and read what I wrote about Tim Tebow. I like him, I’m rooting for him, but this is just a great matchup for Detroit’s defense in terms of what they do well.

You beat Detroit on the ground, and the Broncos will struggle to run with McGahee out. That means Tebow will have to try to win the game through the air and, well, Ndamukong Suh and Co could have a lot of fun.

Detroit Lions D/ST fantasy football Week 8 projection: 13 or fewer points, 5+ sacks, 1 turnover

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week Eight:

• Houston’s defense continues to surprise me with how well it’s playing under new coordinator Wade Philliips. Jacksonville and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, who will be coming off of a Monday night game, should be a tasty matchup.
• Cincinnati’s D will be a popular choice this week going up against Seattle, and it’s a good choice. Just be wary of those tricky Seahawks at home. They will often surprise teams that are traveling over a couple of time zones to play them in their very loud stadium. That said, Charlie Whitehurst is Charlie Whitehurst.

Sit ‘Em D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers (v New England)

The Steelers’ defense is starting to play better as of late, but they are far from the dominating unit we’re used to. Wheras a Pittsburgh-New England game might once have been a battle of top defenses, it is now a meeting of two of the top passing attacks in football.

Between Tom Brady, Big Ben, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, et al, this should be a fun game to watch…so long as you’re not starting either defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST fantasy football Week 8 projection: 27 or more points, 2 sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week Eight:

• Don’t get too excited about Kansas City’s defense after what they did to Oakland. Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer were predictably awful and the Chiefs took advantage, but I expect more out of Philip Rivers and a Chargers team smarting after a tough, embarrassing loss to the Jets. It may not be enough to make Rivers a sure-fire start (as I mentioned above), but I do think the balance of the Chargers’ offense should allow them to put up points against KC.
• Minnesota’s defense is still pretty good against the run, but they are getting torched through the air. And after what Cam Newton was able to do against a very good Washington defense last week, the whole “play any D going against a rookie QB” adage does not work when he’s involved. In fact, it’s becoming start to avoid defenses that are going up against the amazing Cam.

Jon’s thoughts:

I would start the NY Giants this week.  While it’s true that they are not the Giants’ defense of old, they have an unbelievably favorable matchup against the Dolphins…who barely scored 15 points against Denver last week.

Don’t be depressed by their lack of production so far…they could have a 3 or 4 turnover week in Week 8.

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There they are. My Week 8 start/sit picks are in the books and on the record. That was fun! My thanks to Jon for ceding his start/sit saddle this week and giving me the opportunity to give it another go.

Now hopefully all of these picks work out for everyone who visits this week.

As usual, we’ll be answering your questions all week. So drop them below, and then stay tuned to the site for the rest of the week as we post new fantasy content every day.

Staying on the topic of quarterbacks, this week we will see some newcomers who will be thrust into the starting role. Though you shouldn’t hold your breath waiting for Christian Ponder to make headlines in Minnesota, we’ve got other names to know for you in this week’s Stock Report.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Stock Report: Stocks Up

Tim Tebow

As a real football player, there really is not a lot to like about Tebow; but this is the fantasy world.  Regardless of how many passing yards he throws for, his legs are your best asset.  Down on the goal line he is realistically a better option than any other Bronco running back, so if you are in a league with 10+ teams, don’t be afraid to start him.

Jay Cutler

The offensive line did OK against Minnesota last week and should do better when they travel to London to face Tampa Bay.  Look, Jay is just as skilled as any quarterback in the league when it comes to throwing the ball, but he needs time to do so.

Curtis Painter

Now, in a week where arguably 4 of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks are on a bye, the field is wide open for options of who will fill that spot on your roster.  The stock of Painter is only up for logistical reasons: going on the road and facing a New Orleans team who will most likely have the Colts down 14 or more at half will prompt Painter to take control and throw the ball a lot.

DeMarco Murray

Felix Jones is hurt, so it looks like Murray should get the start.  I’m getting the feeling that after a loss, bye week, and another loss, the Cowboys may want to get their running game going if they wish to be relevant in 2011.

Montario Hardesty

Young backs are another trend this week as Montario Hardesty looks like a valuable option.  Yes, the Seahawks are one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league, but someone has to take the carries with Peyton Hillis sitting out with that hamstring injury.  10 points in a standard scoring league seems reasonable.

Kevin Walter

While he does not command a double team quite like the injured Andre Johnson, Walter does get some respect from defenses.  Regardless, he will be targeted early and often whenever Houston does decide to throw the ball.

Doug Baldwin

There may be two 6’4” receivers in Seattle, but this little 5’10” guy is playing bigger than everyone else.  While the Browns do have the 4^th ranked pass defense in the league, Seattle is still going to put up some numbers at home.  Add to that the fact that top cornerback Joe Haden is likely to sit again with a knee injury, and Baldwin could be Cleveland’s toughest matchup.

Kevin Boss

His production has not been stellar thus far, but his role could be increased greatly very soon.  With Carson Palmer getting off the couch and onto the field, the best friends for a new and/or rusty quarterback like that is a running game (check) and a tight end to throw to.  Let’s see how this goes. (And surely Kyle Boller, who will likely start this week as Palmer gets acclimated, will look to his tight end too.)

San Diego D/ST

This matchup looks very good if you have this defense.  The Chargers are good against the run, something that the Jets feel they need to establish but haven’t so far this year.  Mark Sanchez has inconsistencies that fall into the lap of the defense if they are able to establish a decent pass rush.  Ignore the coast to coast travel and start San Diego. Go Chargers! Go!

Fantasy Football Week 7 Stock Report: Stocks Down

Matt Ryan

Sorry Matty Ice, but you just haven’t performed well against the defenses of the NFC North this year.  Is it a coincidence that the Bears and Packers were the only teams to hold him to under 10 fantasy points this year?  Maybe, but the Detroit defense as a whole will bring problems for the Falcons.  That pass rush is vicious. Nobody has been doing well against it and I just don’t see it starting now.

Joe Flacco

I love Joe Cool as much as anybody, but this week he falls victim of the circumstance.  The Jags couldn’t stop the Steelers’ running game last week, and in football if a team can’t stop the run, then the ball will just continue to be shoved down the throat of the defense, lowering Joe’s value this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew

Can you name a significant playmaker on the Jags’ offense besides this guy?  Seriously.  Obviously there is nobody else but MJD, and going against the best defense in the NFL, things are looking bad.  If there is anything positive about his numbers it is that he is averaging 95 yards a game, but if you are looking for a 15 point performance, that’s not happening, because he just doesn’t get into the end zone enough anymore.

Willis McGahee

Yes, he has been very impressive ever since he took over the starting duties in week 2, but with Tim Tebow on the field, his value drops as the Broncos get closer to the end zone.  This is a very unfortunate situation given the fact that he had been playing so well, but this league is a business and people want to see Tebow with the ball.  It’s just Tebow fever for Denver (and you can tell as I used his name more than Willis in his own paragraph).

Larry Fitzgerald

The Vikings held Larry to 6 points last week and you can expect a similar score this week against Pittsburgh.  Even though the schemes are different, the two defenses are structured closely in terms of talent and what they do.  The other problem facing Arizona as a whole is that it doesn’t look like they know what to do with some decent talent on that offense.

Brandon Lloyd

Not 100% sure why Denver pulled the trigger on this deal because it looked as if Lloyd and Decker could coexist.  Regardless, he is in St. Louis now, but don’t expect much from him fresh off of the trade.  He needs to learn some things about the offense and Sam Bradford is ailing as well. Lower the expectations if you can.

Dustin Keller

When you do the math, Keller seems like a good choice for a starting tight end, but not so fast my friend.  With the dysfunctional Jets offense, it’s hard to think that Keller will see any real involvement.  For New York this year it has been either ground and pound or airing it out with very little to the tight end.

Atlanta D/ST

I don’t like to harp on teams, but didn’t a lot of people pick this team to go to the Super Bowl?  Maybe it is their schedule that puts them up against team’s with a lot of fire power on offense or is it that they just aren’t that good?

As soon as I opened up my big mouth and proclaimed that 2011 was going to be the most prolific fantasy year ever, scoring around the league plummets.  No worries.

At least I had a great week on the predictions front, as I was right on nearly 80% of my picks.

As always, here is a quick look back at last week before we move on to week 7.

Week Six Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness:  Peyton Hillis, Julio Jones

Overall: 30 for 38 (79%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Tom Brady, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Hernandez

• Misses: None

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 3

• Hits: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant

• Misses: Benjamin Watson

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 15

• Hits: Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jimmy Graham, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, Curtis Painter

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4

• Hits: Miami QB, Mike Thomas, Scott Chandler
• Misses: Jahvid Best

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jermichael Finley
• Misses: Arian Foster (although I was VERY close…), Steve Johnson

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 8

• Hits: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Tim Hightower, Ted Ginn Jr., Randall Cobb
• Misses: Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram

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Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 7:

• Buffalo
• Cincinnati
• New England
• NY Giants
• Philadelphia
• San Francisco

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer – Tony Romo

Dez Bryant and Miles Austin came back off of injury last week and played very well.  Unfortunately, none of them could get into the end zone against the Patriots’ defense.  Week seven should be a different story as the Cowboys host the hapless St. Louis Rams.  I feel VERY good about this pick – when you can seamlessly insert the word “hapless” into a sentence and nobody disagrees, you know you are in for a good week in fantasy.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 380 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben got off to a great start last week before Rashard Mendenhall got rolling.  Look for Big Ben to have a big day against the very average Arizona secondary.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 295 yards, 3 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Jay Cutler – First of all, he just DOMINATES. Secondly, haven’t you been more and more impressed with him every week?  Tampa Bay is good, but not against the pass (27th in the league), and Cutler has clearly proven that he is an elite QB.  If Mike Martz really HAS solved their offensive line problems with the heavier protection packages, look for Cutler to dominate yet again.
• Matthew Stafford – Atlanta has the sixth worst passing defense in the league…and Calvin Johnson won’t be happy about getting shut out for the first game all year.  Big day for Stafford and Co.
• Drew Brees – He’s amazing…and playing the Colts.
• Matt Hasselbeck – As long as he stays healthy, he should put up some good numbers.  Plus, he’s playing the Texans who are in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Blaine Gabbert

Rookie…who may not be that good…playing on MNF…against Baltimore.  Yikes.

Blaine Gabbert Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Cam Newton

Coming off of his first rough game of the year, Cam Newton would like to be playing someone soft on the defensive side of the ball.  Unfortunately, he will be facing the Redskins, who are sixth in the league against the pass.  Look for Cam to still get his points (running the ball and maybe scoring a TD or two), but not come anywhere close to the production he had in weeks one through five.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 230 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 40 yards rushing.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Mark Sanchez and Philip Rivers – San Diego and NY are ranked 1st and 4th against the pass respectively.  Don’t expect either team to really air it out in this one.
• Kevin Kolb – Isn’t it an amazing testament to Dick LeBeau that for years you couldn’t run on the Steelers, and as soon as the league turned pass-happy the Steelers became impossible to pass against?  So far, they are second in the league against the pass, allowing a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt.  Wow.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree that Tony Romo is a start this week against the Rams’ secondary, but it should be noted that I was VERY high on Romo last week against New England and he disappointed. I think there are some real confidence issues on the Dallas offense. Watch this game carefully. If Romo doesn’t have a big day with Dez and Miles, and Jason Garrett continues to be a conservative play caller, I’m going to start to worry about Romo’s fantasy potential for the rest of the season.

As for Gabbert, I think you’re over-shooting his potential. One TD against Baltimore? Only in extreme garbage time. (So I guess it’s possible…)

I don’t know if you opinions on Cutler and Cam will be popular, but I agree with them. Sound reasoning on both.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

Monday Night Football against the Jaguars.  Don’t get your hopes up if you have a ten point lead going into Monday if the other guy has Ray Rice.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 190 total yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Ryan Torain

Torain got a lot of touches last week, and the Panthers are last in the league against the run.  Torain, and maybe even Roy Helu should have a very good game against the fighting Cam-Cams.

Ryan Torain Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 total yards, 1 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Whoever is rushing for TB – Either way, he should have a good game against a poor Chicago front seven.
• Rashard Mendenhall – Back to back productive weeks for the Pittsburgh running game, and finally a good week for Mendenhall, who has been extremely disappointing this season.
• Michael Turner – Detroit’s outstanding defensive line is surprisingly lackluster against the run.  Plus, ATL is trying to get back to their old, conservative ways.  Big day for Michael Turner.

Projected Worst Performer – GB Running Backs

Green Bay’s running backs aren’t good…and Minnesota’s rush defense is really good…and it doesn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers and the Packers simply don’t need to run the ball.

Packers’ RBs Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 65 total yards

Sit Em – Willis McGahee

The Dolphins will be thinking one thing this week: “let’s see if Tim Tebow can beat us.”  They will be stacking the box to stuff the run, and they are already great against the run (third in the league).  This is especially staggering considering they have been so awful this year and have faced offenses that have been conserving leads late in games.  Look for McGahee and Moreno to have very quiet weeks as Miami and everyone else watches to see if Timmy can beat them.

Knowshon Moreno Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 45 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Adrian Peterson – Green Bay is great against the run…and might be up by 60 points in the first quarter.  Just think about it.
• Rams’ Running Backs – Dallas is #1 against the run…and could be playing with a lead for most of the game.
• Jonathan Stewart – Washington’s defense is solid all over, and Stewart will be left out of the mix this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, just so we’re clear: DO NOT SIT ADRIAN PETERSON. Okay? Under no circumstances does this guy ever come out of your lineup. Is Green Bay a potentially troublesome matchup from a touch perspective? Sure. And are they good against the run? Yes, they’re pretty good. But this is ADRIAN PETERSON. Start him. Always.

Moving on now…

I would never tell anyone to sit Ray Rice, and you shouldn’t. But I am not nearly as bullish as Jon is considering the matchup. Jacksonville is many things, and most of them bad, but their defense is actually pretty good. Rice will find the going tougher than many might think.

As for Torain, I trusted him in Week 6 and he failed me. I still like him going forward, especially with the matchup this week, but just know that whenever you start a running back for Mike Shanahan you are taking on the risk of that running back getting benched for the hot hand. It’s just how it is. Still, Torain is probably a low-top 20 option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

He will be mad after being shut out last week for the first time.  Plus, Atlanta is ATROCIOUS defending the pass (29th in the league for receiving defense).

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dwayne Bowe

He’s big, he’s strong, he’s rested, and he’s facing a terrible secondary.  Bowe won’t disappoint his owners in week 7.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 130 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Mike Wallace – He’s a big play machine.
• Greg Jennings – He was left out of the shuffle a little bit last week.  Rodgers will get him involved again.
• Devin Hester – If the Bears run more 7 and 8 man protection schemes, they will have to utilize Hester more because he is one of their only receivers that is explosive enough to beat his man one on one.  Plus, he’s money in the return game.
• Pierre Garcon – His speed and size create matchup problems for the Saints.  Despite a huge drop, he killed them in the Super Bowl and he will do it again this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

I almost feel bad for the guy.  His team is terrible, his QB is young (and possibly terrible), and he will be facing a tough Baltimore defense on national television.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Vincent Jackson

A little bit overrated…and facing Darrelle Revis.  Not a good combination.

Vincent Jackson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 3 catches for 40 yards 

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Larry Fitzgerald – Dick LeBeau will make it his personal mission to ensure that Kolb won’t even have enough time to throw the ball up to Larry.
• Santonio Holmes – Rough week for Sanchez, the Jets’ offensive line, and in consequence, Mr. Holmes.
• Brandon Lloyd – Receivers don’t do much when they switch teams mid-season.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Yes, Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe should both off this week. Solid choices. However, I cannot tell people to sit Larry Fitzgerald. I know the matchup isn’t great and Kevin Kolb is a turd disguised as a franchise QB, but Fitzgerald remains one of the five most talented receivers in football. He can pop for two TDs any week. Play him.

I also am not a big fan of Brandon Lloyd for this week, but I do like him long-term. He is back with Josh McDaniels, and Sam Bradford has been yearning for a true #1 WR, a role that Lloyd can fill. Once Bradford gets healthy and the Rams’ schedule eases up, Lloyd could pay huge fantasy dividends. Buy low, and buy now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jimmy Graham

He might go for 400 yards against the Colts’ defense.

Jimmy Graham Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 110 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Fred Davis

Look for whoever is playing QB for Washington to check down often and look for Davis on safe, quick passes all day.

Fred Davis Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 8 catches for 95 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at TE for Week Seven:

• Tony Gonzalez – Matt Ryan will look Tony’s way against the Detroit Defensive Line.
• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton loves him, and he will be one of the only guys that has a good game against the ‘Skins.

Projected Worst Performer – Visanthe Shiancoe

Not a good matchup against Green Bay’s linebackers.

Visanthe Shiancoe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 2 catches for 20 yards

Sit Em – Dustin Keller

Once again, it’s very hard to choose a TE that will play poorly when most of them seem to be playing so well, but I think Keller and the rest of the Jets’ offense will have a rough game against San Diego.

Dustin Keller Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 50 yards.

Jerod’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to quibble with any of these picks. Jimmy Graham has a ridiculous four straight games with 100 yards receiving or more. That is insane. And despite injuring his coach in Week 6, I’m sure Drew Brees will continue targeting him incessantly this week and beyond. He’s the clear #1 tight end in football right now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em D/ST

[Editor's note: As always, the D/ST picks are written by Jerod, not Jon.]

Start Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys

Do you realize the Cowboys D is owned in only 47% of Yahoo leagues? Wow. When was the last time anything associated with the Cowboys was underrated? Folks, you can forget about the porous unit from last year. Rob Ryan has done wonders with this year’s Cowboys. Anchored by the spectacular Demarcus Ware and the emerging Sean Lee, the 2011 Cowboys D is solid. They also have a great matchup in Week 7 against St. Louis. Pick up and start.

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The New Orleans Saints defense hasn’t been great this year, but I like a blitz-happy D against the Colts’ Curtis Painter.
• Tim Tebow makes his first start of the season in Week 7. Considering his throwing deficiencies, the Dolphins aren’t a terrible option if the bye week has you desperate.

Sit Em D/ST: Minnesota Vikings

I recommended the Vikings D to a few people last week, thinking they’d have a field day against the Bears’ terrible O-line, but I was proven horribly wrong. So let me state the obvious to make amends: you don’t want to start the Vikings’ D against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The Jets’ D has been shaky this year – don’t let their strong performance against Matt Moore and the Dolphins fool you. Facing Phil Rivers and the Chargers, who are coming off a bye and should have Antonio Gates back, could be trouble for Rex Ryan’s crew.

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That’s all we’ve got for you this week folks. Pose your questions in the comment section and we’ll be here all week to answer. Good luck in Week 7!

Don’t miss the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football coverage:

• Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice

Also, don’t forget that if your NFL fantasy team is struggling, or you’re just getting bored with the NFL, our friends over at Daily Joust over weekly college fantasy football games with real money prizes at stake. Check them out:

Let’s take a look at the fantasy football-relevant injuries going into week 3, including Peyton Hillis, Tony Romo, and Beanie Wells.

AFC North

Wide receiver for the Baltimore Ravens, Lee Evans, was ruled out for Sunday’s game against the St. Louis Rams, despite his confidence in his ankle to handle the game.

Cincinnati Bengals AJ Green, wide receiver, is listed as probable for Sunday’s game. His toe injury isn’t keeping him off the depth chart for the Bengals where he’s first in the lineup.

Peyton Hillis, running back for the Cleveland Browns, is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins due to illness. However, the Browns still have Hillis listed first in the lineup, but I’d check back Sunday morning to make sure he’s still there.

AFC South

Houston Texans will make a game time decision on whether or not to play running back Arian Foster for Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints. Foster is not listed on the depth chart. I’d keep him off, folks.

Dallas Clark, tight end for the Indianapolis Colts did not practice on Friday and is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Clark is dealing with a foot injury.

Receiver for the Tennessee Titans, Kenny Britt cut practice short on Wednesday when his hamstring tightened up but was back practicing Friday.

AFC East

Steve Johnson, wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills, was out earlier this week suffering from a groin issue. However, he’s first on the Bills depth chart for their game against the Patriots.

New England tight end, Aaron Hernandez, is out of Sunday’s game against the Bills because of a knee injury. I am a little disappointed in this one because he was one of my better fantasy players.

AFC West

It looks like Denver Broncos’ Brandon Lloyd will be back in the lineup for Sunday’s game. Both Lloyd and running back Knowshon Moreno are first in their respective positions on the Broncos depth chart.

Jacoby Ford, wide receiver for the Oakland Raiders is out for the week 3 game against the Jets due to a hamstring injury. It’s unclear when he will return.

Both Mike Tolbert and Antonio Gates have struggled with injuries for the San Diego Chargers. I’d check back Sunday morning. No one seems sure of their status.

NFC North

Jermichael Finley, tight end for the Green Bay Packers, is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against division rival the Chicago Bears. However, Finley is not listed on the line up. Check back tomorrow morning.

The Detroit Lions are dealing with injuries to Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew but have put them as first in the lineup for Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings.

NFC South

Both Roddy White, wide reciever, and Matt Ryan, quarterback, for the Atlanta Falcons were suffering from knee injuries but both are listed as probable for Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay.

No worries, Panther fans, Cam Newton has been practicing in full since Wednesday and is listed as probable for tomorrow’s game against Jacksonville.

While Bucaneer tight end, Kellen Winslow, practiced Thursday and Friday, his knee is still listed as questionable, but he is still listed as first in the lineup.

NFC East

The Dallas Cowboys have a plethora of injuries they are dealing with. Tony Romo states that his lung has healed. Now they are waiting on his ribs. No one has mentioned whether or not he will play on Monday. Wide receiver, Dez Bryant, did not participate in Friday’s practice and Felix Jones was limited at practice.

New York Giant, Mario Manningham, did not practice on Friday and is doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Eagles.

Speaking of Eagles, quarterback Michael Vick looks as though he will be ready to play on Sunday. He was practicing on Friday and looks to be ready to go. I’d still check back Sunday morning.

NFC West

Chris Wells, running back for the Arizona Cardinals, is suffering from hamstring injury and is will be a game time decision. Arizona plays a later game on Sunday, so you need to make a decision before the team decides.

San Fransisco 49ers wide receiver, Michael Crabtree, is probable for Sunday’s game and is in the lineup.

Wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks, Sidney Rice, will make his season debut against the Arizona Cardinals this week. Rice missed the first two games due to a shoulder injury.

Steven Jackson, running back for the St. Louis Rams, is going to be a game time decision.

There’s your injury update for week 3. Have a happy football Sunday!

Here is how it will work: I will run down some of the recommendations I gave leading into the previous Sunday that worked as well as some that didn’t; then, more importantly, the comment section will then be yours to dole out “thanks” to any MSF writer who gave you a good recommendation or to call out a “shank” of a recommendation that hurt your team that week.

Hopefully this can be done all in good fun and serves as a way to crystallize lessons that can be learned from picks that worked and from those that didn’t. Just remember when you call us out for a “shank” that the ultimate decision was yours, so try to be fair in doling blame. But know that we do take our recommendations seriously and work hard to make good ones, and we’re happy to be temporary online pinatas if you need to do a little venting.

Week 2 “Thanks”

Here are a few of the Week 2 recommendations that I bet people will be thanking me for:

• I told numerous people to start Devery Henderson over the likes of Plaxico Burress, Percy Harvin, and others because of Marques Colston’s absence and Henderson’s superb Week 1 performance. He responded by having a decidedly Devery day: 3 catches, 103 yards, 1 touchdown.
• Despite an awful Week 1 performance and the presence of the Eagles’ superb cornerbacks, I recommended Matt Ryan to a number of people based on his excellent history at home. Ryan responded with only 195 yards but four touchdowns. Overall, a very solid fantasy day.
• LeGarrette Blount owners were readying themselves to jump off of tall building all week, but I implored them to not overreact. Blount only got five carries in Week 1 because Tampa Bay fell behind early and was facing the juggernaut that is the Lions’ front four. Still, Blount own coach admitted it was a mistake to abandon Blount so early. All signs pointed to a bounceback performance, and it happened. Blount still only got 13 carries but he turned them into 71 yards and a two touchdowns, a great fantasy day.
• Even after he only caught one pass in Week 1, I think I recommended Jeremy Maclin to anyone who asked me about him. Maclin responded by catching 13 balls for 171 yards and 2 TDs. Have patience with proven players, my friends.
• Fred Davis snared six passes for 86 yards and a TD. I recall recommending him to a number of people.

Week 2 “Shanks”

But, as always, even the most logical and well-thought out recommendations did not turn out as planned. Here are a few of my Week 2 recommendations I shanked and that I’m sure more than a few people would like to bop me on the head over:

• I really thought Jay Cutler was going to have a good day for the Bears. The Saints’ D had been getting torched, and I knew Cutler would have to throw to keep up with Brees and Co. Unfortunately, I underestimated just how crappy the Bears’ O-Line would play on the road against a blitz-happy defense. Cutler finished a putrid 19-45 with 1 TD.
• I recommended Buffalo’s D to a few people after picking them up for myself in a few leagues. I thought the West Coast-to-East Coast jet lag and the Raiders’ lack of a passing attack would keep their scoring down. How wrong I was. I regret this decision because it violated my own tenets of logic and making players/units prove it on the field. What had Buffalo really proven against Kansas City? Nothing.
• I told anyone who would listen that I don’t trust rookie WRs and wouldn’t start AJ Green even though he caught a TD in Week 1. Green responded by catching 10 passes for 124 yards and a TD from his fellow rookie QB. I don’t regret this recommendation because distrusting rookies works more than it doesn’t, but it may be time to start considering Green an exception to that rule.
• I told a number of people that I thought Brandon Lloyd would play and be a good start option. He didn’t even play. Now that’s a shank.
• Felix Jones. There, I said it. Let’s just move along before I get angry and throw something.

Those are just a few of the recommendations, good and bad, that I remember giving multiple times before yesterday’s Week 2 action. The comment section is now yours to thank me or shank me, or to do either to any other writer on this site.

Let’s get it out of our system now so that as soon as the Rams-Giants MNF game ends tonight we can turn our collective attention to Week 3.

The first week was full of hard-hitting action and high scores, and with that combination comes the injuries. Here’s your injury update to make sure your second week goes better than my first!

AFC North Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Baltimore Ravens

Wide receiver Lee Evans from the Baltimore Ravens was spotted in a boot early this week after having zero catches against the Pittsburg Steelers. However, John Harbaugh claimed he was ready to go after practicing in full the past two days. Expect Evans to play against the Tenenssee Titans on Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterback, Andy Dalton was cleared to start Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos. Dalton, who was hit on his throwing arm during week 1′s game against the Cleveland Browns, has not officially been named the starter but speculation from media sources assume he will.

AFC South Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Houston Texans

Arian Foster, running back for the Houston Texans, will play at Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins. According to NFL.com, Foster might be limited on the amount of playing time he gets to slowly ease him back into the game after his hamstring injury. If you are expecting big points from him, you might want to rethink your strategy for week 2.

Don’t expect Derrick Ward of the Texans, to play. From the team website, they noted Ward is out and probably won’t even make the trip.

AFC East Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson is dealing with a nagging groin issue. The team stated he rested on Thursday and practiced in full on Friday. I would expect to see him play on Sunday against the Oakland Raiders after noting he practiced in full today.

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins continue to search for the perfect balance between Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, with both recovering from hamstring injuries. Thomas, who missed week 1, practiced in full on Friday. I would expect to see the Dolphins to try to incorporate both running backs into action against the Texans.

New York Jets

Wide receiver Santonio Holmes is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Plaxico Burress, who was dealing with ankle issues, practiced in full on Friday and is expected to play on Sunday.

AFC West Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Denver Broncos

Knowshon Moreno, running back for the Denver Broncos, did not practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. I wouldn’t expect him to play since rumor has it they are lining up others to take his spot. Brandon Lloyd practiced Friday and will most likely play Sunday.

Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders’ running back, Darren McFadden, was one of the players with a minor shoulder injury. However, they expect him to play on Sunday against the Bills.

NFC North Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Chicago Bears

Roy Williams, wide receiver for the Chicago Bears, didn’t practice on Thursday and is questionable for Sundays game. While the Bears still have him listed as first string on the depth chart, I would be wary that his groin injury could keep from the game.

Teammate and running back Marion Barber will not participate in Sunday’s game against the New Orleans Saints after experiencing soreness in his calf.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers tight end Jermichael Finley is expected to play on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. Finley was limited at practice this week because of an ankle issue.

Detroit Lions

Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is expected to play in the Lions game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Johnson returned to practice on Friday, but the final decision won’t be made until Sunday. Because he played in full at practice, I would play Johnson.

 NFC South Fantasy Football Injury Updates

New Orleans Saints

Lance Moore, wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints, is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears. He expects to play but his owners will check his status on Sunday.

NFC East Fantasy Football Injury Updates

Dallas Cowboys

It’s not looking good for the Dallas Cowboys. Both wide receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin have suffered from injuries this week. Bryant hasn’t practiced all week and remains questionable, while Austin was able to practice to some extent on Friday. I’d leave out Bryant but think you could consider Austin in your roster.

New York Giants

Hakeem Nicks, wide receiver for the New York Giants, expects to play on Monday night against the St. Louis Rams. After running some drills at Friday’s practice, he feels confident that his knee will hold up just fine in the game.

NFC West Fantasy Football Injury Updates

St. Louis Rams

St. Louis Rams running back, Steven Jackson, didn’t practice on Friday. Most likely he will be out Monday night. Sit ‘em folks.

Seattle Seahawks

Sidney Rice, wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks will not play on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While he has practiced with limitations all week, the Seahawks don’t want to throw one of their key players in too soon.

Alright week 2…Let’s GO!

Most leagues have a 24-72 hour waiver period at the beginning of each week when no transactions can be finalized, giving everyone a chance to claim every player. If our waiver wire guidance column comes out after that time period, most of the good players are already claimed.

So this week we’re fixing that and now you can spend some time scouring the waiver wire while watching tonight’s Monday night game to see if there is anyone you want to claim.

Update: This week’s Fantasy Football 3-2-1 video has been posted:

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The rules for appearing on this list are simple: the player must be owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Since WR is typically the position most affected by the bye weeks, I’ve listed all of my WR waiver wire targets below. Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see my waiver wire targets at QB, RB, TE, and Defense.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets: WR

Joshua Cribbs, Cleveland Browns (31%)

The Browns appear to be more committed to getting the ball into Cribbs’ hands on offense this year. He and Hillis have become the focal points. Cribbs has 8 receptions for 130+ yards over the last two weeks and he also gets carries in the Wildcat. Plus, there is always the chance for an explosive return (unless Cribbs’ new offensive role diminishes his return ability like it has for Devin Hester, a real possibility). Cribbs appears to be a solid flex play right now, especially in PPR leagues or leagues that count return yards.

Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys (30%)

It’s time to take notice of Roy Williams. One of the most disappointing receivers in all of football over the last few years has resurrected himself in 2010. Williams scored two TDs last week and should have three on the season (remember the last play of the Cowboys’ Week 1 game?).

Now, I wouldn’t get too crazy about a big day against the Texans – everyone is throwing on them this year – but Williams’ catch numbers have increased from 3 to 4 to 5 from Week 1 to Week 3 and Tony Romo clearly has more trust in him this season.

Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos (30%)

Lloyd makes me nervous because he’s been so inconsistent his whole career, but he now has two games already this season with 100+ receiving yards. Kyle Orton clearly trusts him and the Broncos clearly are going to throw, and throw often, in 2010. While Lloyd does have Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, and the rookie Thomas to compete with him for catches, he’s now won that competition in two of the first three weeks this year. Sometimes you have to trust what you see. If you need WR help, Lloyd has to be a guy on your radar screen right now.

Louis Murphy, Oakland Raiders (28%)

I mentioned him last week in this space…and he went out and caught 5 balls for 119 yards. He plays well with Bruce Gradkowski, and Oakland has the Texans on the schedule next. This is a guy to grab and start immediately.

Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (11%)

Moore hasn’t been relevant from a fantasy perspective for almost two years now, so I’m not going to go crazy after one game. He is also a Saints WR, which means that his production is going to vary from week to week. But he does have a 900+ yard, 10 TD season on his resume (2008) so the potential is there. I’m not losing a waiver spot for him, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on.

As mentioned above, head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see our complete list of waiver wire targets and to ask any questions.

Controversy in the Desert

The Cardinals have some incredible talent in the desert. Kurt Warner prayed that his team wouldn’t suck after he got Anquan Boldin rocked by the Jets and his prayers were answered by Steve Breaston. Breaston proved to fill the spot well and has averaged 98 YPG since week 4. Everyone saw his value hitting the floor, though, when Anquan Boldin bounced back. It didn’t. This week against the Panthers he had 91 yards and made it clear that he was still considered a key part of the offense. Not to mention, sticky contract negotiations with Boldin have Steve Breaston in the front office looking to ink a deal with the Cards.

Even with Anquan Boldin back, look for his value to even out slightly, and Steve Breaston’s to stay consistent. Remember the Cardinals throw the ball 60% of the time and Breaston is a primary kick returner, too. (Even with that, Tim Hightower has been the touchdown hawk for the Cards, so don’t count on blowup numbers for Breaston.)

There are some other key dudes back from injury that will change value around the league:

Brandon Stokely looks set to take the field in Denver after a concussion and has been seen as “the best slot receiver in the game” according to teammates. Trouble is with the return of Tony Scheffler and Eddie Royal as well, Stokely won’t get the lovely looks you want. He should be solid coming off the bye week, though, and look for Cutler to light it up against the Dolphins after an embarrassing loss to the Pats. (Jay Cutler has a huge ego…shhh, don’t tell him I told you, even though he wants you to know.)

Brandon Lloyd hit the practice field this week for the Bears. After a knee injury in the Philly game, Kyle Orton lost his most talented prospect. With Orton on the rise, the Bears coming off the bye and looking at Detroit at home, anyone on the Bears might be a good pickup. Keep your eye on his status though; if the knee goes south he will likely wait another week, then Rasheid Davis is probably your best bet in Chicago.

Joey Galloway, back in the Bay. This is great news for a Bucs’ team that has yet to establish an offensive identity. Galloway has not made much noise yet, because he is still splitting time with Antonio Bryant and even Ike Hillard. Joey Galloway is a beast though and has wheels, when his timing returns with Garcia he will find big gains for a Bucs’ team that really can’t run the ball consistently.

Sidney Rice looks like he will be back and healthy for the Vikings this week after struggling to get to 100% with a knee injury. He is the number two wide receiver in Minnesota and will be in the game this week against Houston.

Blow ups in Week 8

If someone in your league hasn’t found Donnie Avery, yet. Get him. I think that goes without saying. The Rams, it turns out, know how to play football and Donnie Avery is a beast.

Ted Ginn Jr. might be more likely to still be floating around in some leagues. The Ohio State alum proved that Chad Pennington has a target on the rise in Miami. He’s still a risk for a big start but will certainly start to show up more, so get him while you can.

Finally, David Garrard might have a target. Reggie Williams might be the go-to in Jacksonville after starting the season with an injury. Plus, Matt Jones can’t stay off the white horse and is looking at a suspension and looking skinnier, I might add.

Be wary of your “studs”

T.O. is losing value with every snap Brad Johnson takes and every move Jerry Jones makes. It’s like a bad Sting ballad. His fantasy stud status is real questionable with this team struggling like it has. Don’t be afraid to sit him if you have a viable option to back him up. On the road in New York won’t be a trip the boys want to remember on Monday morning.

Plaxico Burress is a virus, a virus that Tom Coughlin hates and Eli Manning can avoid. The Giants want to keep this guy as distant from the core of their team as possible and with other receiving options for Eli – Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Kevin Boss and even Derrick Ward – he can find someone else open to do the job who likes playing there. Plaxico Burress had 3 catches for 15 yards last week against the Steelers, and while he gets looks in the red zone, the Giants are good enough to stay away from him if they need to.

Questions? Thoughts? Leave them in the comment thread below and let’s discuss.

(For additional Fantasy Football Week 9 information, also check out the Week 9 Fire and Ice Fantasy Football Forum and the Week 9 Fantasy Football Sleeper Focus.)

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Well, it was interesting to watch two almost identical teams face off in Soldier Field today at 12 pm Central Time. Both the Bucs and the Bears sit at 1-1. Both the Bucs and the Bears have showed some potential but nothing stunning. Both the Bears and the Bucs will be lucky to make the playoffs this year. Both the Bucs and Bears are teams with tough defenses that are required to play well in order to win. Both the Bucs and Bears have the same man under center, more or less.

Brian Griese and Kyle Orton are basically the same guy: Big Ten QBs that because of being inconsistently not bad at managing games are still in position to start games. Having worked together last year in the Chicago, it’s clear that Griese rubbed off on Orton letting him know that with one decently managed drive, you can hold a job in Chicago. Then, even when they’re done with you, you can get picked up by somebody else whose front office isn’t trying to make constructive moves under center.

With those two taking snaps, we knew it wasn’t really going to be a battle like Philly/Dallas, not an offensive clinic or highlight reel. It was going to be a gritty battle won in the box. One where you could fall asleep for twenty minutes and you would probably miss three consecutive punts (I only know that because I did that.)

Both teams’ defense had to manage the game. Keep their offense in striking distance and try to create turnovers by getting pressure on very shaky quarterbacks. The Bears knew they could get to Griese because he got to us when he was a Bear. Monte Kiffin’s defenses have always relied on a pass rush.

Both defenses did their job. Unfortunately, both defenses did it in such a way that they kept their weak offenses in the game. The Bucs defense grabbed two turnovers and turned one into 7 points. The Bears grabbed 3 interceptions from Brian Griese and turned the offense turned those into 11 points. Neither team was down by more than one score at any time, during the game.

Both teams, by the end of regulation had just over 330 yards of offense, and defenses who had both gotten takeaways early in the game but had given up major scoring drives late in the second half.

For Bears fans they couldn’t have asked for anything more. Consider the highlights:

1.Matt Forte had 89 yards on the ground 66 through the air and a touchdown. It’s official after three great weeks against solid defensive opponents: He’s the Bears’ best offensive threat.

2. Kyle Orton has a new best friend. The fourth year receiver out of Illinois, Brandon Lloyd stepped up and caught 6 balls for 124 yards and a touchdown in the 4^th. He made Orton look good, making huge adjustments to balls that were under-thrown but catchable. What’s more? He was matched up in coverage against pro-bowler Ronde Barber, who might be a little old, but is no slouch. Now we know, at least there’s somebody prepared to catch balls in Soldier Field.

3. Kyle Orton managed the game. When he had time in the pocket, he connected – 22/34 for 268, 2 TDs and 2 picks. The Gaines Adams interception came when he tried to ditch the ball to Desmond Clark on a screen. Poor decision making, on his heels, looking at a tough Tampa pass rush caused that one. Both TDs came in the second half, when they needed them. Kyle, I’ll refrain from saying, “Good game” yet, but I will give you a silent, double tap on the shoulder.

4. They are pulling their weight on defense. The Bears’ secondary ripped Griese up for three picks and grabbed a fumble in the first quarter. They shut down the ground game, leaving fantasy owners of Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham in tears.

The only time they looked soft was down the stretch, when the Bucs ran the no huddle and slowed down the pass rush by keeping wind out of their lungs. Yeah, Griese got the majority of his 400 yards then but he did it on 67 attempts total, with the help of overtime minutes. They didn’t make huge stops late in the game but set their team up for success early and often. That’s their job.

So, how do the Bears let this one slip away from them? Really, it boils down to two huge plays. The first was a missed Robbie Gould field goal. It wasn’t a particularly windy day in the Windy City, but Robbie Gould managed to botch a 49 yarder in the 4^th quarter. That three point cushion would have kept the Bears out of overtime but the clearly overpaid Gould has a penchant for making Bears’ fans groan, again. (The Jersey Shore kicker has never made a field goal over 49 yards. You fucking kiddin’ me, bro?)

Then, came the second key play. After the Bucs went 3 and out on their own ten, Charles Tillman got called for unnecessary roughness, which wasn’t that rough but definitely unnecessary. He threw himself at a pile, where some dirty play was going on between linemen. Tillman got called for being the most visible and last man in. He wasn’t the only one but he got caught. We can gripe and groan all we want, pointing at Jeremy Trueblood (the primary Buccaneer in the mix) for being equally to blame but Tillman has to know that tossing a shoulder onto a pile, away from the ball, after a whistle, is a bonehead move. He does know, too. That key penalty brought the Bucs to the 25 and a fresh set of downs, with a little space they moved into place for a Matt Bryant field goal 8 plays later.

The Bears got the game they needed from the majority of the roster, just like last week but still couldn’t get the job done against their former QB and a pretty mediocre Tampa Bay team. The Bears continue showing Chicago fans what we want to see, but, then, go and rip the rug right out from under us and let teams get the better of us. The Bears need to find a way to step up and finish games, fast.