From Fans’ Perspective, Is Joshua Cribbs the Second Most Untradable Cleveland Athlete?

The following tweet by our friend Scott from Waiting For Next Year perfectly summed up my thoughts regarding the Josh Cribbs trade rumors floating around right now:

As little underlying support there is, these Josh Cribbs rumors are not fun

He is exactly right.

Who knows how legitimate the Cribbs-to-Miami or Cribbs-to-whomever talk is, but there is nothing fun or exciting at all about the Browns’ clear fan favorite being mentioned in the same sentence as the word “trade.”

All the rumors about Cribbs got me to thinking: is he the second most untradable sports figure in Cleveland?

(I think we all know who the first is.)

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I’ll Tell You This: Sports Rumor Mill – Dungy, Gruden, Quinn, and More!

In this week’s “I’ll Tell You This” I jump into the realm of the Sports Rumor Mill. Take a look and brew up some comments or rumors of your own!

1. Tony Dungy to Return to Coaching?

Recent rumors have placed Tony Dungy back at the helm of the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers as early as next season. Tampa Bay is 0-5, and has shown no signs of life this season, and its coach, Raheem Morris, is no doubt on the hot seat.

There seemingly will be a change in Tampa in the next couple of years, if not before.

I’ll Tell You This:

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Brilliant Braylon for New York in Miami

Last week at this time wide receiver Braylon Edwards was lanquishing in Cleveland, waiting for a ball to come his way from a sputtering offense, while searching for nightlife downtown and throwing down with a Friend of LeBron.

On Monday Night Football in Miami, Jets v. Dolphins, Number 17 — wearing his new New York Jets uniform — was brilliant, showing off the moves, leaps and most importantly, the hands that Browns fans had not seen since 2007.

Edwards had five catches for 64 yards, one touchdown and another called back on a challenge with the ball placed on the one-yard line. The Jets scored on the very next play.

Despite the loss to Miami, New York fans were buzzing about the Mark Sanchez to Braylon Edwards connection.

Magical.

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Led by Lewis, Browns Defeat Bills 6-3 Despite Awful Anderson (Ratliff Time?)

The previously winless Cleveland Browns defeated the one win Buffalo Bills in an offensive-less game earlier today, with the final score finishing at 6-3.

The highlights were not plentiful, but yes, there were a few.

Let’s begin with the return of Jamal Lewis. Early in the week, Lewis was not even considered to be able to play versus Buffalo because of a lingering hamstring injury. Later in the week, Lewis was possibly going to play, but would be eased into action. And then here is the Jamal Lewis stat line from Sunday: 117 yards on 31 carries.

I’m glad to see they took it easy on him.

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Derek Anderson to Start Sunday for Browns

Derek Anderson replaced Brady Quinn in the second half of last weekend’s game against Baltimore, and he has replaced him moving forward as well.

Eric Mangini, as promised, announced his decision on the Browns’ starting quarterback position today. His decision: Derek Anderson will start, in hopes of sparking a moribund offense that has scored one touchdown in the last…year? Decade? Century?

How long and how bad has it been?

Anyway, it’s possible that this is the most inconsequential QB announcement ever.

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Browns Lose Big, Mangini Loses Team?

Is it too late to give the Browns’ name, its colors, and history back to Baltimore?

When Art Modell sold the city of Cleveland down the river and moved the Browns to Baltimore, Clevelanders clamoured to keep the Browns’ name and create a new Browns out of…well, what would become a bunch of misfits led by poor schlep Chris Palmer in 1999.

After Sunday’s 34-3 humiliating annihilation at the hands of the former Browns, it is time to consider the 2009 Browns the latest group of misfits, and call the total new Browns a failed experiment.

But where to go from here?

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Chad Pennington Injury Update: Out for Season With Torn Capsule in Throwing Shoulder

I root for two teams: first, the Cleveland Browns, who I grew to cheer for over the past 7-8 years; and second, the Miami Dolphins, who I grew up cheering for.

After yesterday, it appears that neither of my favorite teams has a quarterback any longer.

First, in Cleveland, anointed starter Brady Quinn played so poorly through the first ten quarters of 2009 that he was benched in favor of a guy, Derek Anderson, who played so poorly last year that he was benched after being given a contract extension.

Then, during the Dolphins’ loss to the Chargers, Chad Pennington — a revelation last year during his first season in Miami — went down with an injury and was replaced by Chad Henne. The young QB from Michigan sputtered and could not lead the Dolphins to victory, and now it appears that Pennington could be out for the season.

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Browns Limp Into Baltimore as 2-TD Underdog, Looking to Avoid Deadly Attack

First off, my apologies for the delay in posting this week’s Browns preview. I could blame it on a lack of time from the recent site redesign, or the fact that I’ve been a little under weather this week, or that there were other more interesting stories to write about; but, the real reason why I’m not writing and posting this until just a few hours before kickoff is that I’ve specifically wanted to avoid writing about today’s Browns-Ravens game.

Because, regardless, I am going to the Browns Backers with my parents to watch the game, and I have pretty much no hope whatsoever that the Browns have even a prayer to win today.

That lack of hope was made even more severe yesterday when it was announced that Jamal Lewis and Phil Dawson will not play in today’s game.

Quickly, here is the pertinent viewing info for this afternoon from the Week 3 TV schedule and point spreads guide:

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Eric Mangini Overseeing an Abysmal Mess in Cleveland

Okay, finally done with my so-called day job deadline so I can now truly reflect on the abysmal mess that head coach Eric Mangini has created with the once-proud Cleveland Browns.

Ironically, the imposters, the mismatched retreads, and rookies we call the New Browns are going to Baltimore to play The Real Browns, now called the Ravens.

But being from Cleveland, I’ll watch the game with my eyes partially closed, amidst the usual f-bombs, moans, screeches, and objects thrown.

To Jrod: Yeah, the first two weeks have flown by fast. Unfortunately, the season, after two games, seems on a runaway elevator catapulting down to the basement.

First and foremost: Mangini is a Madman, a paranoid schizophrenic who talked Randy Lerner into this gig.

It is like having your hometown ruled by a crazed dictator who charges players $1,700 for a failing to pay for a bottle of water; he talks a lot and says nothing, still refuses to discuss injuries, and totally f…ed up Brady Quinn by never naming him as starting QB (spies are out there, listening, ready to steal our playbooks.)

Moreover, he forced Quinn to change his stance and methodically check off, resulting in a QB who is caught holding the ball too long and getting sacked nine times so far.

Not only does Mangini demand the team march in lockstep, he has the players memorizing impossible schemes that won’t work because he allowed choice draft picks to be drafted so he could get twice as many has-beens, especially from his old team, the New York Jets who are all in hog heaven under the affable Rex Ryan.

I would name the ex-Jets has-beens who now wear Browns uniforms, but I just can’t remember their names.

Here is the reverse logic of Mangini’s Day at the Draft last April: I will let Mark Sanchez go; pass on Ray Maualuga and let him to haunt us from Cincy; I believe we also had a shot at getting Clay Mathews Jr. (his old man probably told the kid he was lucky not to be in Cleveland.)

First draft pick: Alex Mack, who sometimes has a hard time at center getting the football into Quinn’s hands instead of over his head or rolling on the turf. In the second round, rookie receivers Masaaquoi and Robiskie were chosen. But now Mangini doesn’t want to play them for some reason. Maybe they talked back to Coach, or worse, forgot to pay for a Pepsi — who knows?

About the only thing Brady Quinn has going for him is that Braylon Edwards is catching the ball again. (Although he will not fight for the ball, wrench it out of a defender’s arms, etc.)

Brian Dabold, the brand spanking new offensive coordinator has Brady Quinn posing like Tom Brady, calling signals as he lifts his foot, jerking his head right and left. Looks good until the snap goes awry.

As Quinn’s credence as a quarterback falls lower each day (at least on Cleveland sports radio), Quinn himself has to do something about it. Audiblize, do play action, run, something. Forget the meetingspeak crap and just try to win the game. (You’re gonna get yelled at on the sidelines, anyway, why not make it count?)

Bill Curry, former center for Johnny Unitas said that if a teammate ran the wrong route, he would order him out of the huddle and call for a replacement.

Football is different these days. It is rare for a QB to call his own plays. Quinn has got to step up and show he does have the cojones to risk an interception, to run out of the pocket, to dive for a first down, to change a play in the huddle.

Maybe the Browns won’t win the game Sunday (gee, you think?) but Quinn could orchestrate a few more first downs to give the defense time to catch its collective breath before facing Flacco and Co.

With so many things going against them — along with a continuous heap of bad luck — it is doubtful the Browns will contend any time soon. A 21-point underdog, this Sunday? That seems about right.

After two games and one offensive touchdown so far this season, the year 2007 — dubbed by local radio personalities as “The Season of Dreams” — is fading into obscurity. It seems, now, that the fabled 10-6 season was not a turn in the right direction. It was just a blip on 10 years of bad teams.

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* – Eric Mangini photo credit: The Cleveland Leader

Browns-Vikings Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

I can’t wait for tomorrow.

The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year. 

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009’s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

Unfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

• Vikings-Browns Date: Sunday, September 13th
• Vikings-Browns TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on FOX
• Vikings-Browns Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland
• Vikings-Browns Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
• Vikings-Browns Point Spread: MIN -4
• Vikings-Browns Over-Under: 40
• StubHub: Browns-Vikings tickets as low as $40
• StubHub: all 2009 Cleveland Browns tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 Minnesota Vikings tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first. 

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

2008:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised. 

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the  top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

• The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
• The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive. 

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007’s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield. 

• Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
• James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
• The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity. 

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game. 

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

However, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

• Brandon McDonald led the team with five
• Sean Jones had four
• Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
• Mike Adams had two
• Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing. 

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season. 

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

• Browns-Vikings Preview and Game Thread — (Dawgs By Nature)
• Take Browns and the 4 pts — (Cleveland Frowns)
• Browns-Vikings By the Numbers — (OBR)

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* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

Fantasy Football Week 1 Sleeper Picks

It’s only Week 1, so the reality is that you shouldn’t be scouring for weekly matchup sleepers yet. With only few exceptions, owners should simply be filling out their lineups with their top picks at each position and then waiting for Sunday. (And if you’re not doing this, you may want to check your draft strategy next time.)

However, as we move through the 2009 fantasy and NFL football seasons, identifying available and potentially valuable sleepers — especially those who have favorable matchups — can be an important component in effectively navigating the bye weeks or dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness from your starters.

So, even though the majority of people have no use for this column in Week 1, I’m going to write it anyway. If nothing else, it will get me into the groove for writing it weekly, kind of like my own little sleeper analysis preseason. 

Note: The % owned numbers I am citing are from Yahoo. I’d imagine they are pretty similar to what you’ll find on ESPN. And remember, these are deep sleepers. There is no sense in me telling you that Wes Welker is a good play against Buffalo. He’s probably owned in 100% of your leagues. I am only going to look at guys who are owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues, because you might actually have a chance to pick them up.

Let’s get right to it:

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Quarterbacks

Brady Quinn, Cleveland (vs Minnesota)

Don’t laugh.

If you are trolling for a sleeper QB in Week 1, I hope it’s because you are in a league that starts three of them. Most leagues only start one, but even owners in leagues that start two should have their horses ready.

That said, if you do need a QB, I think newly minted starter Brady Quinn could put up sneaky good numbers this week against Minnesota, and he’s only owned in 25% of leagues. The primary reason why I foresee a decent fantasy day from Quinn is that, while I expect the Browns to improve to 6-8 wins this year, I see the matchup against Minnesota as being absolutely awful from a team perspective of actually wining the game.  

The Vikings have perhaps the best run / stop the run combo in the NFL, and both are severe weaknesses of the Browns. Plus, with all of the offseason drama, Minnesota will be extra amped up to play and to send a message that all is right in the Twin Cities. Add it all up and I see a game that is a 10-14 point deficit at halftime and then the Vikings cruising to victory in the second half.

Why does this matter?

If Cleveland gets behind, smashing Jamal Lewis into the line for three-yard carries isn’t going to bring them back. Brady Quinn will be forced to throw, and the Browns’ one true offensive playmaker is on the outside in Braylon “Hands” Edwards. It may not be pretty, and Quinn may not have a great completion % in his first start, but he should have the opportunity to rack up yards, and possibly even a 4th quarter TD or two against the Vikings backups.

For comparison’s sake, I actually like Quinn better from a Week 1 fantasy standpoint than either of the QBs playing tonight: Ben Roethlisberger or Kerry Collins.

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Running Backs

Mike Bell, New Orleans (vs Detroit)

As we updated yesterday, Saints starting RB Pierre Thomas is most likely out for Week 1 with a sprained MCL. That means that Reggie Bush will probably get a few more touches, but I think the Saints have wised up to the fact that Bush is not an every down back. 

Insert: Mike Bell.

The former Broncos phenom has bounced around the past few years, but has a pretty cushy gig as the backup in New Orleans. And the truth is that if Tony Siragusa was the backup for the Saints, he’d be a sleeper playing against Detroit.

New Orleans will score tons of points, and probably will have at least a few goalline carries to dole out in the midst of their 450-500 yard day. When they do, Bell is the most likely beneficiary. For a guy owned in only 20% of Yahoo leagues, he offers tremendous TD upside. If you own Thomas and don’t have much depth at RB, you could do a lot worse than inserting Bell into your flex spot and then hanging onto him as a handcuff. Even if you don’t have Thomas, I’d play Bell over guys like Darren Sproles or Fred Taylor, at least for Week 1.

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Wide Receivers

Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers (@ Arizona)

There are actually a lot of WRs owned in less than 50% of leagues that I like. A few of the names and matchups: Steve Smith, Giants (vs Washington); Mark Clayton, Ravens (vs Chiefs); Devery Henderson, Saints (vs Lions); Josh Cribbs, Browns (vs Minnesota).

The name I like the best, however, is an oldie but sometimes a goodie: Isacc Bruce, who is owned in 49% of Yahoo leagues.

The main reason I like Bruce is that I love the matchup. The 49ers are playing the Cardinals, who I believe are ripe to fall victim to the Super Bowl hangover that always seems to engulf the loser of the Big Game. And considering all of the negative reports coming out of Cardinals preseason camp — from the Cards players themselves — I am even more convinced that this could be another season of horrors in Arizona.

Also, consider this, courtesy of Yahoo Sports:

WR Isaac Bruce had 14 receptions of 20 or more yards last season, as the 49ers ranked fifth in the league with 64 plays of more than 20 yards. Bruce enters this season as the team’s No. 1 receiver.

Mike Singletary made the decision to go with Shaun Hill as his starting QB, and I think it was a great decision. Hill is not flashy, nor is he an every-week fantasy starter by any means. He does, however, have a 90.5 career QB rating and an 18-9 TD-INT ratio in 12 career starts. Since he averages more than a touchdown per start, and considering that Isaac Bruce is his #1 target, chances are solid that these two will form a nice Week 1 combo against an Arizona defense that became overrated last year because of a nice run in the playoffs.

From Week 12 on last year, Bruce had only one game in which he caught fewer than five passes. Especially if you are in a PPR league, Bruce is a very good option as a 3rd WR or flex play this week.

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett, Dallas Cowboys (vs Tampa Bay)

My #1 choice as a sleeper pick at the tight end position is actually Vernon Davis. But since I discussed him yesterday in my Start/Sit column, and just talked about why the 49ers’ passing game has a solid matchup, I’ll go in another direction.

Straight to MartyB, Mr. Cap’N Crunch himself.

I wrote earlier this preseason about why I think Martellus Bennett is a great sleeper pick for the season at the tight end position. Considering the onus that the Cowboys have placed on getting both of their tight ends involved in the offense this year (with 2-TE sets rumored to be on the menu perhaps as much as 50% of the time) I think Jason Garrett and Tony Romo will give Bennett some opportunities to get involved in Week 1.

Don’t forget, the freakishly athletic Bennett turned four of his 20 catches into touchdowns last year. His ability to go up and get the football makes him a very inviting target in the red zone. While Jason Witten will obviously be more valuable, and catch a lot more balls, don’t be shocked if Bennett ends up the season with more touchdowns and becomes the Cowboys’ #1 threat inside the 20.

Tampa Bay is rebuilding its defense and I expect the Cowboys to have a good showing on Sunday. If you’re not satisfied with your tight end, Bennett is a great name to consider. He’s clearly not as valuable in a PPR league, but in scoring leagues he offers nice upside for a guy owned in just 7% of Yahoo leagues.

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Defenses

New Orleans Saints (vs Detroit)

I’m really not a big fan of any of the defenses owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues, but there are two facing rookie QBs making their first NFL starts: New Orleans and Houston (facing Mark Sanchez and the Jets).

Matthew Stafford has looked pretty bad this preseason, yet he will no doubt be asked to throw the ball a lot in Week 1 as the Lions try to keep pace with Drew Brees and the Saints’ O. New Orleans does not have a great D by any means, and Detroit will most likely get some yards and even some points with Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson, but Stafford is too young and inexperienced not to throw a few ill-advised picks. I would not be shocked in the least to see the Saints take one or two of them to the house, and to see them pick up a few sacks on the rookie.

And finally, to hell with kickers. They’re all a crapshoot anyway. 

That concludes our proceedings here this morning. As always, feel free to chime in with your comments below and I’ll respond as soon as I’m able.

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* – Brady Quinn photo credit: Avoiding the Muse

* – Martellus Bennett photo credit: AP Photo via DayLife.com

New Browns Beat Writer Terrell Owens Confirms that Brady Quinn Will Start at QB

There are a number of people who I thought might break the news of whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson had won the Browns QB derby prior to kickoff of the Browns-Vikings game this sunday.

Perhaps Mary Kay Cabot would do it, I thought, considering that she covers the Browns beat for the Cleveland Plain-Dealer.

Or perhaps one of our good friends over at the Orange & Brown Report would do it, considering they always seem to be out in front of important Browns news.

Or maybe ProFootballTalk would break the news, considering their ever-growing number of league and team sources, plus their obvious ins with agents around the league.

Well guess what…had I bet any money on any of those three options breaking the news, I would have lost. I also would have failed to realize that there is a hot new reporter in Berea breaking the important Browns news these days.

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And you can follow him at http://twitter.com/terrellowens.

Yes, ladies and gentleman, the following tweet from the NFL’s most divisive receiver was the first public acknowledgement of what we all already assumed anyway: that Brady Quinn will be the starting QB for the Cleveland Browns in 2009.

Congrats 2 Brady Quinn 4 starting job w/Cleveland Browns!!

And I know this because shortly after Owens’ tweet was posted, ProFootballTalk and the Plain-Dealer (via the aforementioned Cabot) posted the news that Quinn would be the starter:

Brady Quinn has won the quarterback competition and will start Sunday’s game against the Vikings, a league source told The Plain Dealer today.

There is no word on whether or not Terrell Owens was, in fact, the league source that confirmed the news to Cabot, but she does mention PFT’s reference of T.O.’s tweet at the end of her short article. Does that strike anyone else as odd? 

For the record, I enjoy Cabot’s work and think she does as good a job as she can considering the tight-lipped nature of the current Browns administration, so my observations here are somewhat tongue-in-cheek. Still, it is rare that you see a beat reporter such as Cabot provide attribution to a tweet and a blog, inferring that they are relevant in the breaking of the most important story on her turf this offseason.

Seen another way, maybe it is just a sign of these twitterrific times we live in and an implicit commendation for the rapid rise of PFT from “just a blog” to a legitimate NFL news and rumor site.

Either way, it does amuse me that the identity of the Browns starting QB could not even be kept a secret for more than 24 hours after Eric Mangini reportedly met with Quinn and Derek Anderson to inform them of his decision. Not that I thought it would stay a secret…but I did at least expect it to stay private a little longer than it did.

I actually thought it was a good idea by Mangini to keep it a secret as long as possible. There aren’t many advantages the Browns have going into Sunday’s game against the Vikings, so he might as well hold onto every one he can, regardless of how small or insignificant.

Nonetheless, the cat now appears to be out of the bag, and Brady Biceps can assume complete leadership over the offense.

I think it’s the right move, all things considered, and hope that he begins to fulfill the promise that made him a 1st round selection. Most importantly, I hope the Browns coaching staff is committed to sticking with him. The last thing I want to see is another frustrating game of musical quarterback chairs like we saw last year.

This is Brady’s time, and we should know at the end of 2009 whether we have a franchise QB or a 1st round bust. I’m hoping for the former and think it’s time for the Browns to go all-in and find out.

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* – Terrell Owens photo credit: The Onion

* – Brady Quinn photo credit: The Play in California

Peter King May Disagree, But There Are Reasons For Hope in Cleveland

There are plenty of reasons to expect the Cleveland Browns to not be very good and to not win very many games in 2009.

Chief among those reasons: they are, after all, the Cleveland Browns.

There is certainly a lot of Browns hate floating around as we approach the first week of the 2009 NFL season. Peter King of SI has predicted that Cleveland will finish with the league’s worst record, 2-14, and be a game worse than even the Detroit Lions. Take a a few minutes to sample the power rankings at sites like ESPN, FoxSports, and elsewhere. The prevailing wisdom seems to be that while the Browns are not quite the worst team in the NFL, they are not too far away.

So what the hell am I thinking trying to approach a Browns 2009 season preview with the goal of disproving the conventional wisdom? Am I totally off my rocker sitting down this morning in search of legitimate reasons for why Browns fans should have hope heading into 2009?

The answer to both questions is: I’m not sure.

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But here I am, and here you are, and damnit, at the end of the day this is the NFL we are talking about. If a Dolphins or Falcons or Ravens fan had set out to write a similar post before last season began, they would have been looked at as fools too. And we know how that turned out.

Consider the following:

• The Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens entered 2008 with new head coaches who had no head coaching experience. The Browns enter 2009 with a new head coach who actually has head coaching experience.
• The Dolphins and Falcons had been bad for a while. They were not a year removed from a 10-win season, as the Browns are.
• The Falcons and Ravens entered last year with first round rookie QBs starting. The Browns have one guy a year removed from making the Pro Bowl…who will likely be the backup. Brady Quinn, the Browns’ own first round, first-year probably starter at least enters this season with a couple of years of NFL experience under his belt.

Somehow, despite so many odds seeming to be stacked against them, the Dolphins, Falcons, and Ravens all made the playoffs last year. Time and again in the NFL we see teams rise from the depths of low-to-no expectations to shock the football world by winning 9, 10, 11 games. 2007 in Cleveland was a prime example.

So no matter how bad you expect the Browns to be in 2009, remember that the Dolphins and Falcons were expected to be just as bad, if not worse, in 2008. And look where they ended up.

But simple, general, implied correlations such as what I’ve just done mean nothing. A Lions fan could say the same thing. So could a Raiders fan. It’s time to get specific. We all rationally understand, based on recent NFL history, that teams going from worst-to-first is not a freak phenomenon in the NFL.

For Browns fans — my long-suffering and frowning brethren who are desperately grasping for hope, for something legitimate to believe in heading into 2009 — what are some real and team-specific reasons why 2009 could be the season when we put the wait for next year on hold?

1 – Eric Mangini will see your 4-12 record, and raise you a playoff berth

Forgive the somewhat obtuse poker analogy, but this fact remains: Eric Mangini has already proven that he can immediately take a team from 4-12 (the Browns’ record in 2008) to the playoffs. He did it in 2006, his first year with the Jets, after New York had played to win the games in 2005 but did not win many under Herm Edwards.

Interestingly enough, the parallels to do not end there.

You may recall that in 2004, the year preceding the Jets’ 4-12 stumble and Edwards’ eventual ouster, the Jets went 10-6.  Similarly, as I know you will recall because I’ve already mentioned it, the Browns went 10-6 in 2007, the year prior to their 4-12 collapse in 2008 that led to the ouster of then-head coach Romeo Crennel.

So for Eric Mangini, this is already charted territory. The man has done it once, which should give Browns fans a legitimate reason to think that he can do it again.

(Note to all Browns fans: for the sake of our ever-diminishing sanity, let’s forget for the moment the fact that Mangini’s Jets yo-yo’d back to 4-12 in his second year, completing a four-year run of 10-6, 4-12, 10-6, 4-12 that we would obviously like to avoid.)

2 – Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley have nowhere to go but up

Let’s get one given about the 2009 Browns out of the way right now. We all know that this is a team still in need of more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Thus, the playmakers that they do have absolutely must play up to their capabilities this season.

Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are, unquestionably, two of the five most talented players on the Browns roster (along with the consistently solid Joe Thomas, Josh Cribbs, and Shaun Rogers…at least he was last year). Both Braylon and Kamerion were awful in 2008, despite already having proven that they can succeed at the NFL level. These two must play much closer to their potential for the Browns to have success in 2009.

And there is every reason to believe that they will do so.

Braylon Edwards is the player that I correctly pegged as the key to the Browns season in 2008 after we watched him struggle in Week 1 against Dallas. Sadly, I was proven correct as Braylon’s awful season was symbolic of the entire team’s failure last year.

But this is still a guy who was the 3rd overall pick in the draft, who has shown that he can produce yards and TDs in big numbers, and who should be entering his prime at 26 years old.

In 2007, we probably saw Braylon’s ceiling. In 2008, we probably saw his floor. In 2009, we just need to see a very good receiver, which Braylon is perfectly capable of being. And if Braylon is only very good — putting on hold, for a moment, any expectation of him being great — he should produce 75-85 catches, 1,200-1,300 yards, and 8-9 TDs. These are not unreasonable numbers.

And think about it: if Braylon had just been good last year, as opposed to decidedly awful, the Browns probably win one or two more games.

Auspiciously, Braylon has appeared better and more focused this preseason (3 rec, 51 yards, TD in the Browns’ most recent preseason game) and should be more consistent if the Browns pick one QB and stick with him.

He can’t be worse than he was last year, and that alone will make the Browns better.

On the other side of the ball, Kamerion Wimbley is, like Braylon, a former first round pick with worlds of talent. He is also, like Braylon, prone to inconsistency and had his worst season as a pash rusher last year. After a great rookie season in which Wimbley got 11 sacks, he fell to only 4 last season.

So like Braylon, we have probably seen Kamerion’s floor. I’m not quite sure we have seen his ceiling yet, however; and the combo of Eric Mangini and new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan may just be able to unleash it. The Jets and Raiders (where Ryan coached last season) were both in the top half of the NFL in sacks last year. Say what you will about the ability of Ryan’s Raiders to stop the run — they couldn’t — but they did a decent job of getting after the passer.

And he is, after all, a Ryan.

The Browns have Shaun Rogers and D’Qwell Jackson as the centerpieces of their quest to improve the run defense. And let’s be honest, it could improve and still not be very good. Kamerion Wimbley, on the other hand, is the centerpiece of the Browns’ pass rush, and there appear to be new strategies in play (such as moving him around more) to make him more effective.

Kamerion has too much talent to pick up only four sacks this year. If he can get back into double-digits, which he is perfectly capable of doing, the Browns’ defense will improve. An improvement by Kamerion alone won’t make the Browns defense great, and might not make it good, but it will at least make it better.

Assuming these two immensely talented players can play closer to their abilities than they did last season, it should make the Browns 2-3 games better. I suppose it’s fair to say that we should expect such improvement at our own risk, but it’s at least a reason for hope. 

Remember, we’re Browns fans. Hope is all we have.

3 – The pieces are in place for the Browns to be far more effective running the football

A lot of blame got heaped onto Derek, Brady, and Braylon for the Browns’ offensive struggles last season, and deservedly so; but the running game provided little in the way of backup. The Browns finished 26th in the league in rushing last year with a paltry 3.9 yards per carry. Unless you have a healthy Kurt Warner with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at receiver, that’s just not going to get it done.

Much was made of the Derek-to-Braylon and Derek-to-Kellen and Derek-to-Jurevicius combos that made the Browns’ 2007 offense so successful. But did you realize that the Browns also finished 10th in rushing that year and averaged 4.3 yards per carry?

With Brady Quinn likely to get the nod at QB, and two rookies plus a QB-turned-kick-returner-turned-wide-receiver likely to be among his top five targets on the outside, the Browns will have an inexperienced passing game in 2009 that will undoubtedly be a work in progress. Where we have the best combination of experience and talent is in the backfield.

And, as with the assumed improvement of Braylon and Kamerion, I think it’s safe to assume that the running game will be better in ‘09 — in large part because it cannot possibly be worse.

Jamal Lewis is a former freak-of-nature-type stud who could bowl over defenders and run by them at the same time. Now tumbling down the 30-and-over running back hill, Lewis lacks breakaway speed and can be painfully slow to the hole. What he can do, however, is churn out tough yards while wearing down defenders, block effectively, and provide much-needed leadership on an offense that is devoid of it.

I’ve heard whispers that the Browns should cut ties with Lewis because of his diminishing skills as a runner. That’s a myopic viewpoint. This will probably be his last year in Cleveland, but he will still be valuable, for the reasons mentioned above, even if his carries are reduced (which they should be) and he’s only a 3.8 yard per carry back.

Where my excitement and optimism about the Browns running game comes from is the presence and flashes of brilliance that we’ve seen from Jerome Harrison and James Davis. I’ve written at length about these two players and their potential for success in 2009 here and here, so I won’t repeat myself. Suffice it to say, as long as Eric Mangini and Brian Daboll make good on their promise to get these guys more involved, the Browns will be a better running football team in 2009.

Something else to keep in mind: while everyone focused on the Jets’ passing game and Brett Favre last season, they were surprisingly effective running the football. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington led a ground attack that finished 9th in the league in rushing.

And one more thing to keep in mind: Eric Mangini comes from the Bill Belichick school of coaching, where you focus on what players can do, as opposed to what they cannot do, and put them in positions to succeed and maximize their value to the team. One example that proves this is the Jets’ superb use of Leon Washington last year.

The previous Browns coaching staff always seemed hung up on what players could not do, as evidenced by their exasperating unwillingness to get Jerome Harrison consistent touches. The guy averaged more than 7 yards per carry! No one thinks he can keep that up with 100-125 carries, but he certainly is part of the solution to the Browns ground woes and I expect the new coaching staff to recognize this. 

[Editor's Note: As someone astutely pointed out to me after posting this, Romeo Crennel also came from the Belichick school of coaching.  And to that I say...he must not have listened very well. Hopefully Mangini was a better student.]

Time will tell how effectively Mangini and Daboll can direct the Browns offense, but the Jets’ success running last season plus the versatility of the Lewis-Harrison-Davis trio has me optimistic that we will be much better on the ground this year than we were last year. We sure as hell (broken record alert!) can’t be much worse. And that right there is another reason to hope for and expect improvement. 

Finally, here a few additional quick-hit reasons for Browns fans to have hope heading into 2009:

– Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald are playmaking, ball-hawking cornerbacks who have flashed the potential for both greatness (the home Monday night win over the Giants) and for punishing lapses in focus (the devastating Broncos loss). As they gain experience and enter their prime, improvement should be inevitable. Add to this the fact that Eric Mangini is a secondary coach at heart and in experience, and I think we can safely assume that one position for which focus should be less of a problem this year is the defensive backfield.

– Josh Cribbs, whose contributions to the team’s 2007 success were never fully appreciated in my opinion, looks energized this preseason. Obviously something needs to be done with his contract, but if Cribbs can stay healthy and not fight nagging injuries like he did last year, he will make the Browns better on offense and special teams.

– The Browns’ schedule, in theory, should be more palatable than last year’s. While the NFC North looks to be much improved this year, the AFC West has only one good team. And if Baltimore continues its trend of being good one year and then bad the next, it could provide two in-division opportunities for victories that were not there last year.

Just a quick glance at the schedule reveals the following eight games that are very winnable: at Denver, vs Cincinnati, at Buffalo, at Detroit, at Cincinnati, and the last three games of the year: at Kansas City, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville. If the Browns are indeed a better football team in 2009, and can find a way to just go 6-2 or 5-3 in these eight games, a 7-9 or 8-8 or *gasp* even better record is possible.

And those final three games, against teams that no one is pegging as playoff-caliber heading into the year, could prove valuable if the Browns somehow are in contention for a playoff spot.

So, in conclusion, Peter King can take his 2-14 prediction and shove it.

I like Peter King and read his Monday Morning Quarterback column religiously, and after last season’s debacle I suppose anything is possible. When your team is picked to compete in the AFC, you get five prime-time games, and then you fall flat on your face, it’s hard to really argue when an outsider shows a lack of faith.

But there are reasons for hope in Cleveland that many prognosticators, and even many fans, are not recognizing. Similarly, there were reasons for caution heading into last year that many prognosticators, and certainly many fans, turned a blind eye towards. The unexpected happened in 2007 and the unexpected happened in 2008, so who’s to say the unexpected won’t happen in 2009?

I realize that I may be setting myself up for another season of disappointment and heartache, but I’m beginning to get excited and optimistic about the 2009 Browns. I honestly have no idea if we will be better or if we will be worse, and the truth is that nobody does. This is the National Football League aka Not For Long aka No F’ing Logic, a league where the unexpected has ironically become the expected.

Eric Mangini has already proven that he can defy conventional wisdom and expectations in his first year with a new team, and the Browns have certainly proven they can defy conventional wisdom and expectations with their performance the last two years. But, alas, this is the Browns we are talking about, a team notorious for its consistent ability to suck the hope and optimism out of its fans by a seasons’ end.

So call it a coping mechanism, call it foolhardy positivity, or even just call it crazy. Either way, while the fresh-cut-grass smell is still emanating from another NFL season set to begin, with every team sitting there even at 0-0, I will once more jump on the bandwagon of optimistic hope and believe that the unexpected can indeed occur in Cleveland.

We’ll see. 

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* – Cleveland Browns helmet logo credit: Wikipedia

* – Eric Mangini photo credit: New York Post

* – Braylon Edwards photo credit: The Repository (Canton, OH) via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

* – Kamerion Wimbley photo credit: AP via DayLife

Breaking News! Browns QB Will be Brady Quinn…or Derek Anderson

After his solid performance in the Browns’ third preseason game, a home victory over the Titans, many assumed that Brady Quinn had sewn up the starting job in Cleveland.

Quinn outplayed his rival for the starting gig, Derek Anderson, by going 11-15 with 128 yards and a TD to Braylon Edwards. Anderson was not bad, 7-11 for 77 yards, but could only muster a field goal drive.

However, it looks like this week will only bring disappointment for anyone hoping that head coach Eric Mangini will tip his hand and name a starter with just under two weeks left until the team laces it up for real.

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From our good friends at the OBR:

Eric Mangini said he still is not ready to name a starter at quarterback.

“No decision, yet,” Mangini said in is Monday morning press conference.

…

Mangini said he is committed to going through the whole process, even if that means Thursday’s preseason finale with the Bears.

As I see it, there are three probable explanations for why Mangini still refuses to name a starter, even when all of the signs point to Brady Quinn eventually getting the job:

1. Derek Anderson has performed relatively well in the last two preseason games and is the only one of the two who has played a full season and made a Pro Bowl. Maybe Mangini really doesn’t know yet.
2. The Browns would probably still like to trade one of them, thus reducing the possibility of a QB controversy that could hover over the team all season. As Barry McBride from the OBR pointed out to us this weekend, Mangini would not want to reduce the trade value of either by designating one a backup.
3. Mangini is from the Bill Belichick school of hoarding information and giving out as little as possible. He not doubt wants to have an auspicious debut in front of the home fans in Week 1, and the less time Minnesota has to prepare for a particular QB, the better.

My gut tells me that Brady is the guy, and that the second and third reasons are the most probable explanations for why the “Brady or Derek” QB question will linger at least through this week. And honestly, it works for me.

Information = leverage and power in the NFL. If we have some irons in the fire for a potential trade of D.A. (and I have no knowledge that this is the case), why not see those discussions through without minimizing his value? And if the offense is progressing without one guy being the designated starter, as it seems to be based on the performance against the Titans, then why not make Minnesota play a guessing game for as long as possible?

We’ll get our answer regarding the Browns QB soon enough. In the meantime, we’ll have to keep guessing…but the advantage is that so will everyone else.

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* – Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson photo credit: Getty via FanNation

Browns Preseason Q&A with Barry McBride of the Orange & Brown Report

Over the course of the last week, I have had the pleasure of engaging in a Browns preseason Q&A with Barry McBride of the Orange & Brown Report. You can stay current with Barry’s latest updates on the OBR blog. As I listen to the third preseason game (Titans up 7-0 right now, Brady Quinn started) I will post the answers below for your viewing pleasure.

And remember, if you are a Cleveland Browns fan, there is no greater Cleveland Browns resource online than the Orange & Brown Report. So click over there and register for premium access. The best part: you get a 7-day free trial to realize how kick ass it is. We know that with Eric Mangini in charge, information will be hard to come by. No one will have more than these guys.

If you don’t want to do the premium access right now, at the very least follow the OBR on Twitter for the latest Browns news as it happens.

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Okay, I’ve shilled enough (but I do mean it, these guys are great). Onto the Q&A:

Q: I heard Gil Brandt on Sirius say that the reason the Browns have not announced their QB yet is because they are trying to trade Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson and do not want to hurt the trade value for either. Is there any truth to this, based on what you know? And how do you see the QB situation shaking out?

Barry McBride: Gil Brandt is obviously a great football mind and still well-connected in NFL circles. This isn’t a new thought, however. It’s something we’ve discussed on the OBR ever since Eric Mangini announced that there would be a quarterback competition back in March during the scouting combines.

At the time, there was a lot of speculation that the Browns would deal either Quinn or Anderson for draft picks, and it made no sense to reduce the trade value of either by declaring one of them to be the team’s backup. It’s certainly possible that one or the other will still be dealt, and that this is why Mangini is waiting, although there isn’t anything visibly percolating at the moment.

Another way to look at it is that neither quarterback has stepped up and grabbed the job by the throat. The Browns hoped that either Quinn or DA would make it a non-issue by their performance this Summer, but both quarterbacks continue to demonstrate their respective strengths and weaknesses as expected. Neither has really stepped their game up to the point where the job was clearly won, although Quinn still seems to have the edge.

One other thing to keep in mind is that Eric Mangini’s penchant for secrecy dates back to his time as a defensive coordinator working for Bill Belichick. He has said that one of the toughest things for him to overcome as a defensive coordinator is not knowing which quarterback he will be facing in the coming weeks. He may simply be holding off declaring a winner to make it harder for the Vikings to plan for the season opener.

Q: One of my thoughts regarding DA and Brady is that while Brady should, theoretically, be less prone to the boneheaded mistakes we’ve become accustomed to with Derek, having Derek as the starter would be better for Braylon. And with the Browns devoid of proven playmakers on offense, putting Braylon in the best position to succeed may be the best move for us offensively. Do you agree?

Barry McBride: I like how you’re thinking, but I’m not sure I’m fully on board.

The first thought that springs to mind is that the biggest challenge to Braylon Edwards’ success since 2007 has typically been Braylon himself. While undeniably talented, Edwards seems to suffer from lapses in focus that aren’t dependent on who is quarterbacking. He has memorable dropped touchdown passes that have been delivered to him from both Quinn and Anderson in the past, as recently as the first preseason game against the Packers when Quinn hit him in the back of the end zone.

If anything, Quinn’s softer touch with the football might help Edwards hold onto the ball somewhat, although Anderson’s ability to stretch the field obviously makes Edwards a threat on every play, as does Anderson’s sometimes stubborn desire to focus on getting the ball to him even when dealing with double or triple-coverage.

One other factor that suggests that Quinn might ultimately help Edwards is that it’s critical for the Browns to have credible #2 and #3 receiving threats, and a credible threat of runners catching passes out of the backfield as well. Anderson has a tendency to continually attempt to feed the ball to Edwards (and Winslow in past years), and Quinn’s tendency to go through his progressions quickly might force opponents to take the Browns’ other receivers far more seriously and help reduce the amount of attention that Edwards gets from opponents.

I suspect that we’ll ultimately really only know how Edwards would fare under a full season with Quinn at QB is to give that option a chance, and see how he does.

(As I am posting this, Phil Dawson just kicked a field goal. Browns close the gap to 7-3.)

Q: As a fan who is 1,000 miles away from the action, I can only look at stats and quotes in the paper to make a judgment. With QBs though, leadership, intangibles, huddle command, etc., are so important. Between Derek and Brady, who seems to have more respect from their teammates? Who “commands” the team better? Or have they not separated themselves in this regard either?

Barry McBride: I would give the edge here to Quinn as well, based on what I’ve heard through OBR reporters like Lane Adkins and Fred Greetham.

With some strong personalities on the Browns (as with every team), it’s critical that there not be a question about who is in charge in the huddle. As we’ve been told by players themselves, there’s no question when Quinn is on the field that he’s running the show. Although it’s never been said outright by his teammates, by extension, one can infer that Anderson may be somewhat less of a take-charge guy. I have to add, however, that Lane Adkins has relayed this year that Anderson’s approach in that department has taken a step up. He has a little more of a swagger about him than in past years.

Full disclosure: Someone reading the last two answers may conclude that I’ve got my mind made up about who I think would serve the Browns better in the long run. To that, I have to say, “guilty as charged”.

I was an advocate of drafting Quinn, have advocated giving him opportunities faster, and have been skeptical about Anderson ever since we got our first prolonged exposure to him during 2007 training camp. He’s clearly got tremendous athletic ability and potential that makes offensive coordinators salivate, but I admit that I still see the same quarterback from Oregon State highlight films: rocket arm, sprays the ball all over the field, and has a very high dependence on getting good protection and having receivers who will out-muscle defenders for the ball. That all came together to support him in 2007, and he was a Pro Bowler. It didn’t happen in 2008, and I don’t see it happening in 2009, either. On a team that has those attributes around him, Anderson could be very successful, but the Browns just aren’t there.

Q: Okay, well that about wraps things up. Wait…oh…there are 21 other starting positions on the Browns this year? Who knew?

What is the status of the contract talks with Josh Cribbs? When I watched the Detroit preseason game, it reminded me that we do, in fact, have a gamebreaker other than Dropsie Edwards. To me, especially with his improvement as a WR, Cribbs’ contract demands are not in any way outlandish. Are Mangini and Kokinis just playing a cat-and-mouse game with Cribbs and planning to sign him, or do you think they just are not convinced yet that he is worth more than he is making?

Barry McBride: Cribbs has agreed to come in, practice, and play despite lack of visible progress being made on his contract. Obviously, he’s a key component of the Browns special teams, but the team itself claims to be mystified as to how to price a return man (and obviously is not wanting to give Cribbs the same money that the Bears laid out for Devin Hester). The Browns are also, like most NFL teams, reluctant to tear up a contract with two years left. Although it should be noted that this reluctance rarely is in evidence when players are under-performing rather than out-performing their deals.

As luck would have it, the preseason has given Cribbs a chance to make a serious push for the #2 WR role which, if he wins it, bails both him and the team out by providing some more guidance about where Cribbs’ price should be, as well as a stronger rationalization for doing so. The Cribbs saga has yet to play out, but has already been marked by some of the worst mainstream media reporting I’ve ever seen, as both local and national media elements carve headlines out of virtually nothing more than having their previous assumptions about Cribbs’ intentions proven wrong.

Q: There have been rumblings recently that James Davis could start sneaking his way into more first team action. How patient will Mangini be with Jamal Lewis if Jamal continues to be slow to the hole and sports a 3.5-3.8 yard per carry average? And how does Jerome Harrison fit into this equation? Mangini seemed committed to getting Harrison the ball based on comments from early training camp, but Davis appears to have passed him over the last week. When will Jerome get back on the field and how do you see the attempts being split up between he and the rook?

Barry McBride: I don’t see Davis and Harrison as being much in conflict since they’re different types of backs. Harrison, although he gets more yards after contact than I would have expected, still primarily fits the mold of an NFL third-down back, whereas Davis is more of a between-the-tackles runner, like Jamal Lewis. I see Davis as spelling Lewis, with Harrison appearing more in third down situations. What Davis’ emergence means to Harrison is that he’s less likely to get opportunities to serve as an every down back, although I considered that to be somewhat questionable in any event.

If the interior of the Browns offensive line can’t hold holes open for longer than they have in the preseason, Lewis’ opportunities will go down, since Davis is quicker to the hole. This won’t make Lewis happy, as he still seems to firmly believe he’s most effective with 20-25 carries per game. While statistics bear that out for his career as a whole, it’s a dubious notion at this point.

Q: Real quick before we move to defense, what can Browns fans expect from the offensive line this year? Obviously Joe Thomas is an anchor on the left side, but will this year’s line be closer in performance to the 2007 unit or last year’s sieve?

Barry McBride: I wouldn’t expect 2007-level performance, simply because I don’t believe that Pork Chop Womack can perform at the same level that Ryan Tucker did during that year. We found out in 2008 how critical Tucker was to that unit and to helping out the undersized Hank Fraley and new right tackle Kevin Shaffer. It’s no coincidence, in my view, that the team’s best performance last year came in the one game where Tucker appeared. He has been on and off the practice field all preseason, and I don’t anticipate that he’ll be able to help take the right side of the Browns line up to the next level. Womack and John St. Clair have been steady and professional, although St. Clair has shown in the preseason a tendency towards ill-timed penalties.

Alex Mack has a very good shot of displacing Hank Fraley at center, but we’ve already seen him dealing with the rough NFL learning curve. In the AFC North, he’ll have to contend with some of the best nose tackles in the league. Expect mistakes to be made as Mack adjusts to the NFL.

Q: Braylon Edwards is the only “sure thing” in the receiving corps (except when wide open passes come his way, of course). How have the rookies looked? And is Mike Furrey (only a few years removed from a really good season in Detroit) an under-the-radar acquisition to could have 50-, 60-catch impact and play a QB-friendly role like what Joe Jurevicius was in ‘07?

Barry McBride: Furrey looks like a very good third receiver so far, which the team has missed ever since Dennis Northcutt went on his way. It’s doubtful that he could equate to what Jurevicius did (since Furrey will be out of the slot, and JJ was a #2 WR, in any event). It looks like he might be a smart fantasy football pickup late in the draft based on his performance so far in the preseason. He will probably get 30-40 catches from what I’ve seen so far.

Brian Robiskie has been a little bit disappointing since being hyped as a pro-ready NFL receiver, but such hype rarely proves true. Both he and Massaqoui are dealing with the usual struggles you see receivers suffer in their rookie season. At this point, Massaquoi may be higher on the depth chart based on his performance to date. He has looked very solid both in practice and games and should be in line for some playing time as the season begins.

Q: We know that everything defensively revolves around Shaun Rogers, with D’Qwell Jackson providing steady performance at LB, but it seems to me that for the Browns to to improve defensively, two things need to happen: Kamerion Wimbley needs to get to 11-12 sacks and fulfill the potential he showed as a rookie, and the Eric Wright-Brandon McDonald combo needs to become more consistent. Do you agree? And is there anything inherent in the new system/coaching staff that should help these players improve this seson?

Barry McBride: The Browns really needed to improve their game up the middle, and adding Eric Barton alongside D’Qwell Jackson seems to be a terrific move so far. Rod Hood has given Brandon McDonald a little push, but the team’s early scouting of corners for next year’s college draft convinces me that neither may be seen as the long-term answer there. A bigger question at this point is at safety, where the team has little depth behind starter Brodney Pool, whose ability to play is in question following last week’s game. Pool has a concussion history and the team has not revealed why he appeared to woozily walk off the field. If Pool is not available, the Browns defense will suffer.

Wimbley has a chance to perform better this year for a couple of reasons. The first is that the team has improved their consistency and depth in the defensive line, with C.J. Mosely providing a solid addition, and Wimbley needs that in order to have a lane to the quarterback. Secondly, the coaching staff has shown much more enthusiasm for moving Wimbley around from right to left, which is something Romeo Crennel rarely did. By making Wimbley’s position on the field less predictable, he has the possibility for greater success. It will ultimately be up to him to take advantage of his role in this defense.

Q: The NFL is notorious for having teams go from worst-to-first. In the AFC North, Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl champ, Cincinnati is starting to become a popular darkhorse candidate for improvement with Carson Palmer back, and though they seem to be terrible every other season and lost Rex Ryan, Baltimore is still Baltimore. Put on your optimists hat (if you can): why is not an outlandish idea for Browns fans to dream of an AFC North title? (Or is there simply no reason to do so?)

Barry McBride: It’s always possible, as long as meteors and comets are around that could possibly smash into Pittsburgh or Baltimore while their respective teams are practicing. Or, better yet, when the two face off in the same stadium.

Outside of that, it’s going to be a rough road for a Browns team that still needs to show that it can get consistent performance on offense and stop the run effectively on defense. Three possibly optimistic signs: (1) This team did go 10-6 just a couple of years ago, so there’s more talent than is obvious from last year’s 4-12 record; (2) Barring the loss of Pool. they could always get lucky with injuries, which is always the great unknown going into every season; and, (3) Mangini did manage to turn the Jets around during his first year as head coach.

An 8-8 season is not totally unreasonable, but I still believe that the team has a significant uphill battle ahead of them. They face six tough games within the division, and will have to have a large number of things go right for them in order to make noise in the AFC North.

Thanks for the great questions!!

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[Editor's Note: And we thank Barry McBride for taking the time to answer our questions.  Now that you've enjoyed the Q&A, hop on over to the OBR and sign up!]

* – Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson photo credit: Getty via FanNation