The QBs of the 2007 NFL Draft: The Worst Single Position of Any NFL Draft Class Ever?

We are now more than 2 1/2 years into the NFL careers of the players who were drafted in 2007.

If you scroll down the list of first round draftees, several names will jump out at you of players who have already carved out solid beginnings to their careers.

In a few cases, some of the first round draftees from 2007 have proven to be franchise cornerstones worthy of high picks: Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis, Ted Ginn Jr, to name a few.

In other cases, however, the players drafted in 2007 have proven to be worth far less than what their draft position might suggest. This is no more evident than with respect to the two QBs drafted in the first round in 2007: JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn.

My goodness, what wasted first round picks those two are proving to be.

And amazingly, Russell and Quinn are not alone. Several other QBs were taken in 2007, none of whom have amounted to much of anything. Let’s review the carnage.

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Cribbs Down and Quinn Accused of Cheap Shot

There is no joy in Cleveland, the mighty Quinn has gone three and out; kick return man and wildcat Cribbs has gone down.

A fan at Cleveland Browns Stadium for the Monday Night debacle against the Ravens, held up a sign that said it all: “Hey, Baltimore, can you take this team, too?”

After suffering through another day of depression and frustration over the state of these Cleveland Browns’ pretenders, (remember, the Browns did not “come back” in 1999; late owner Al Lerner accepted a nameless, nearly talent-less expansion team and named it the Browns), Browns fans’ hope the end of the nine-game Coach Eric Mangini Era is near.

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NFL Quarterback Power Rankings

No position in the NFL is more highly scrutinized, debated, and discussed than the quarterback. It’s impossible to build a consistent winner without one (and people who follow the Cleveland Browns would tell you that it’s impossible to find one period).

After this weekend’s Packers loss to the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers was a popular topic of conversation on Twitter. I made the comment that he has not shown me that he has the “it” that people always talk about when it comes to QBs. Some agreed and some disagreed, but it got me thinking about where Rodgers falls in relation to today’s crop of QBs.

Thus, I set out to rank the quarterbacks currently holding starting NFL gigs, taking into account their current age and skill level, future potential, past accomplishments, and the general confidence level I would have if that player was the QB of my team.

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Cleveland Browns Look to Rebound From Crushing Loss to BYE

Entering this Sunday’s home matchup with BYE, the Cleveland Browns were sitting at 1-7 and in 5th place in the AFC North behind Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Notre Dame.

Despite the team’s poor start to the season, plus the turmoil caused by the firing of George Kokinis and threats of a Monday night protest next week, hopes were high that a second victory would be forthcoming.

“We don’t want to take anything for granted,” former starting quarterback Derek Anderson said. “I once got intercepted by the JUGS machine in practice. I thought it was Steve Heiden. So humility will not be an issue for this week.”

How right he was.

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From Fans’ Perspective, Is Joshua Cribbs the Second Most Untradable Cleveland Athlete?

The following tweet by our friend Scott from Waiting For Next Year perfectly summed up my thoughts regarding the Josh Cribbs trade rumors floating around right now:

As little underlying support there is, these Josh Cribbs rumors are not fun

He is exactly right.

Who knows how legitimate the Cribbs-to-Miami or Cribbs-to-whomever talk is, but there is nothing fun or exciting at all about the Browns’ clear fan favorite being mentioned in the same sentence as the word “trade.”

All the rumors about Cribbs got me to thinking: is he the second most untradable sports figure in Cleveland?

(I think we all know who the first is.)

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I’ll Tell You This: Sports Rumor Mill – Dungy, Gruden, Quinn, and More!

In this week’s “I’ll Tell You This” I jump into the realm of the Sports Rumor Mill. Take a look and brew up some comments or rumors of your own!

1. Tony Dungy to Return to Coaching?

Recent rumors have placed Tony Dungy back at the helm of the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers as early as next season. Tampa Bay is 0-5, and has shown no signs of life this season, and its coach, Raheem Morris, is no doubt on the hot seat.

There seemingly will be a change in Tampa in the next couple of years, if not before.

I’ll Tell You This:

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Brilliant Braylon for New York in Miami

Last week at this time wide receiver Braylon Edwards was lanquishing in Cleveland, waiting for a ball to come his way from a sputtering offense, while searching for nightlife downtown and throwing down with a Friend of LeBron.

On Monday Night Football in Miami, Jets v. Dolphins, Number 17 — wearing his new New York Jets uniform — was brilliant, showing off the moves, leaps and most importantly, the hands that Browns fans had not seen since 2007.

Edwards had five catches for 64 yards, one touchdown and another called back on a challenge with the ball placed on the one-yard line. The Jets scored on the very next play.

Despite the loss to Miami, New York fans were buzzing about the Mark Sanchez to Braylon Edwards connection.

Magical.

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Led by Lewis, Browns Defeat Bills 6-3 Despite Awful Anderson (Ratliff Time?)

The previously winless Cleveland Browns defeated the one win Buffalo Bills in an offensive-less game earlier today, with the final score finishing at 6-3.

The highlights were not plentiful, but yes, there were a few.

Let’s begin with the return of Jamal Lewis. Early in the week, Lewis was not even considered to be able to play versus Buffalo because of a lingering hamstring injury. Later in the week, Lewis was possibly going to play, but would be eased into action. And then here is the Jamal Lewis stat line from Sunday: 117 yards on 31 carries.

I’m glad to see they took it easy on him.

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Derek Anderson to Start Sunday for Browns

Derek Anderson replaced Brady Quinn in the second half of last weekend’s game against Baltimore, and he has replaced him moving forward as well.

Eric Mangini, as promised, announced his decision on the Browns’ starting quarterback position today. His decision: Derek Anderson will start, in hopes of sparking a moribund offense that has scored one touchdown in the last…year? Decade? Century?

How long and how bad has it been?

Anyway, it’s possible that this is the most inconsequential QB announcement ever.

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Browns Lose Big, Mangini Loses Team?

Is it too late to give the Browns’ name, its colors, and history back to Baltimore?

When Art Modell sold the city of Cleveland down the river and moved the Browns to Baltimore, Clevelanders clamoured to keep the Browns’ name and create a new Browns out of…well, what would become a bunch of misfits led by poor schlep Chris Palmer in 1999.

After Sunday’s 34-3 humiliating annihilation at the hands of the former Browns, it is time to consider the 2009 Browns the latest group of misfits, and call the total new Browns a failed experiment.

But where to go from here?

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Chad Pennington Injury Update: Out for Season With Torn Capsule in Throwing Shoulder

I root for two teams: first, the Cleveland Browns, who I grew to cheer for over the past 7-8 years; and second, the Miami Dolphins, who I grew up cheering for.

After yesterday, it appears that neither of my favorite teams has a quarterback any longer.

First, in Cleveland, anointed starter Brady Quinn played so poorly through the first ten quarters of 2009 that he was benched in favor of a guy, Derek Anderson, who played so poorly last year that he was benched after being given a contract extension.

Then, during the Dolphins’ loss to the Chargers, Chad Pennington — a revelation last year during his first season in Miami — went down with an injury and was replaced by Chad Henne. The young QB from Michigan sputtered and could not lead the Dolphins to victory, and now it appears that Pennington could be out for the season.

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Browns Limp Into Baltimore as 2-TD Underdog, Looking to Avoid Deadly Attack

First off, my apologies for the delay in posting this week’s Browns preview. I could blame it on a lack of time from the recent site redesign, or the fact that I’ve been a little under weather this week, or that there were other more interesting stories to write about; but, the real reason why I’m not writing and posting this until just a few hours before kickoff is that I’ve specifically wanted to avoid writing about today’s Browns-Ravens game.

Because, regardless, I am going to the Browns Backers with my parents to watch the game, and I have pretty much no hope whatsoever that the Browns have even a prayer to win today.

That lack of hope was made even more severe yesterday when it was announced that Jamal Lewis and Phil Dawson will not play in today’s game.

Quickly, here is the pertinent viewing info for this afternoon from the Week 3 TV schedule and point spreads guide:

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Eric Mangini Overseeing an Abysmal Mess in Cleveland

Okay, finally done with my so-called day job deadline so I can now truly reflect on the abysmal mess that head coach Eric Mangini has created with the once-proud Cleveland Browns.

Ironically, the imposters, the mismatched retreads, and rookies we call the New Browns are going to Baltimore to play The Real Browns, now called the Ravens.

But being from Cleveland, I’ll watch the game with my eyes partially closed, amidst the usual f-bombs, moans, screeches, and objects thrown.

To Jrod: Yeah, the first two weeks have flown by fast. Unfortunately, the season, after two games, seems on a runaway elevator catapulting down to the basement.

First and foremost: Mangini is a Madman, a paranoid schizophrenic who talked Randy Lerner into this gig.

It is like having your hometown ruled by a crazed dictator who charges players $1,700 for a failing to pay for a bottle of water; he talks a lot and says nothing, still refuses to discuss injuries, and totally f…ed up Brady Quinn by never naming him as starting QB (spies are out there, listening, ready to steal our playbooks.)

Moreover, he forced Quinn to change his stance and methodically check off, resulting in a QB who is caught holding the ball too long and getting sacked nine times so far.

Not only does Mangini demand the team march in lockstep, he has the players memorizing impossible schemes that won’t work because he allowed choice draft picks to be drafted so he could get twice as many has-beens, especially from his old team, the New York Jets who are all in hog heaven under the affable Rex Ryan.

I would name the ex-Jets has-beens who now wear Browns uniforms, but I just can’t remember their names.

Here is the reverse logic of Mangini’s Day at the Draft last April: I will let Mark Sanchez go; pass on Ray Maualuga and let him to haunt us from Cincy; I believe we also had a shot at getting Clay Mathews Jr. (his old man probably told the kid he was lucky not to be in Cleveland.)

First draft pick: Alex Mack, who sometimes has a hard time at center getting the football into Quinn’s hands instead of over his head or rolling on the turf. In the second round, rookie receivers Masaaquoi and Robiskie were chosen. But now Mangini doesn’t want to play them for some reason. Maybe they talked back to Coach, or worse, forgot to pay for a Pepsi — who knows?

About the only thing Brady Quinn has going for him is that Braylon Edwards is catching the ball again. (Although he will not fight for the ball, wrench it out of a defender’s arms, etc.)

Brian Dabold, the brand spanking new offensive coordinator has Brady Quinn posing like Tom Brady, calling signals as he lifts his foot, jerking his head right and left. Looks good until the snap goes awry.

As Quinn’s credence as a quarterback falls lower each day (at least on Cleveland sports radio), Quinn himself has to do something about it. Audiblize, do play action, run, something. Forget the meetingspeak crap and just try to win the game. (You’re gonna get yelled at on the sidelines, anyway, why not make it count?)

Bill Curry, former center for Johnny Unitas said that if a teammate ran the wrong route, he would order him out of the huddle and call for a replacement.

Football is different these days. It is rare for a QB to call his own plays. Quinn has got to step up and show he does have the cojones to risk an interception, to run out of the pocket, to dive for a first down, to change a play in the huddle.

Maybe the Browns won’t win the game Sunday (gee, you think?) but Quinn could orchestrate a few more first downs to give the defense time to catch its collective breath before facing Flacco and Co.

With so many things going against them — along with a continuous heap of bad luck — it is doubtful the Browns will contend any time soon. A 21-point underdog, this Sunday? That seems about right.

After two games and one offensive touchdown so far this season, the year 2007 — dubbed by local radio personalities as “The Season of Dreams” — is fading into obscurity. It seems, now, that the fabled 10-6 season was not a turn in the right direction. It was just a blip on 10 years of bad teams.

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* – Eric Mangini photo credit: The Cleveland Leader

Browns-Vikings Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

I can’t wait for tomorrow.

The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year. 

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009’s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

Unfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

• Vikings-Browns Date: Sunday, September 13th
• Vikings-Browns TV & Kickoff Time: 1:00 ET on FOX
• Vikings-Browns Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland
• Vikings-Browns Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick
• Vikings-Browns Point Spread: MIN -4
• Vikings-Browns Over-Under: 40
• StubHub: Browns-Vikings tickets as low as $40
• StubHub: all 2009 Cleveland Browns tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 Minnesota Vikings tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first. 

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

2008:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

• Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
• Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised. 

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the  top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

• Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
• Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

• The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
• The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive. 

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007’s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield. 

• Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
• James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
• The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity. 

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game. 

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

However, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

• Brandon McDonald led the team with five
• Sean Jones had four
• Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
• Mike Adams had two
• Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing. 

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season. 

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

• Browns-Vikings Preview and Game Thread — (Dawgs By Nature)
• Take Browns and the 4 pts — (Cleveland Frowns)
• Browns-Vikings By the Numbers — (OBR)

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* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

Fantasy Football Week 1 Sleeper Picks

It’s only Week 1, so the reality is that you shouldn’t be scouring for weekly matchup sleepers yet. With only few exceptions, owners should simply be filling out their lineups with their top picks at each position and then waiting for Sunday. (And if you’re not doing this, you may want to check your draft strategy next time.)

However, as we move through the 2009 fantasy and NFL football seasons, identifying available and potentially valuable sleepers — especially those who have favorable matchups — can be an important component in effectively navigating the bye weeks or dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness from your starters.

So, even though the majority of people have no use for this column in Week 1, I’m going to write it anyway. If nothing else, it will get me into the groove for writing it weekly, kind of like my own little sleeper analysis preseason. 

Note: The % owned numbers I am citing are from Yahoo. I’d imagine they are pretty similar to what you’ll find on ESPN. And remember, these are deep sleepers. There is no sense in me telling you that Wes Welker is a good play against Buffalo. He’s probably owned in 100% of your leagues. I am only going to look at guys who are owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues, because you might actually have a chance to pick them up.

Let’s get right to it:

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Quarterbacks

Brady Quinn, Cleveland (vs Minnesota)

Don’t laugh.

If you are trolling for a sleeper QB in Week 1, I hope it’s because you are in a league that starts three of them. Most leagues only start one, but even owners in leagues that start two should have their horses ready.

That said, if you do need a QB, I think newly minted starter Brady Quinn could put up sneaky good numbers this week against Minnesota, and he’s only owned in 25% of leagues. The primary reason why I foresee a decent fantasy day from Quinn is that, while I expect the Browns to improve to 6-8 wins this year, I see the matchup against Minnesota as being absolutely awful from a team perspective of actually wining the game.  

The Vikings have perhaps the best run / stop the run combo in the NFL, and both are severe weaknesses of the Browns. Plus, with all of the offseason drama, Minnesota will be extra amped up to play and to send a message that all is right in the Twin Cities. Add it all up and I see a game that is a 10-14 point deficit at halftime and then the Vikings cruising to victory in the second half.

Why does this matter?

If Cleveland gets behind, smashing Jamal Lewis into the line for three-yard carries isn’t going to bring them back. Brady Quinn will be forced to throw, and the Browns’ one true offensive playmaker is on the outside in Braylon “Hands” Edwards. It may not be pretty, and Quinn may not have a great completion % in his first start, but he should have the opportunity to rack up yards, and possibly even a 4th quarter TD or two against the Vikings backups.

For comparison’s sake, I actually like Quinn better from a Week 1 fantasy standpoint than either of the QBs playing tonight: Ben Roethlisberger or Kerry Collins.

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Running Backs

Mike Bell, New Orleans (vs Detroit)

As we updated yesterday, Saints starting RB Pierre Thomas is most likely out for Week 1 with a sprained MCL. That means that Reggie Bush will probably get a few more touches, but I think the Saints have wised up to the fact that Bush is not an every down back. 

Insert: Mike Bell.

The former Broncos phenom has bounced around the past few years, but has a pretty cushy gig as the backup in New Orleans. And the truth is that if Tony Siragusa was the backup for the Saints, he’d be a sleeper playing against Detroit.

New Orleans will score tons of points, and probably will have at least a few goalline carries to dole out in the midst of their 450-500 yard day. When they do, Bell is the most likely beneficiary. For a guy owned in only 20% of Yahoo leagues, he offers tremendous TD upside. If you own Thomas and don’t have much depth at RB, you could do a lot worse than inserting Bell into your flex spot and then hanging onto him as a handcuff. Even if you don’t have Thomas, I’d play Bell over guys like Darren Sproles or Fred Taylor, at least for Week 1.

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Wide Receivers

Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers (@ Arizona)

There are actually a lot of WRs owned in less than 50% of leagues that I like. A few of the names and matchups: Steve Smith, Giants (vs Washington); Mark Clayton, Ravens (vs Chiefs); Devery Henderson, Saints (vs Lions); Josh Cribbs, Browns (vs Minnesota).

The name I like the best, however, is an oldie but sometimes a goodie: Isacc Bruce, who is owned in 49% of Yahoo leagues.

The main reason I like Bruce is that I love the matchup. The 49ers are playing the Cardinals, who I believe are ripe to fall victim to the Super Bowl hangover that always seems to engulf the loser of the Big Game. And considering all of the negative reports coming out of Cardinals preseason camp — from the Cards players themselves — I am even more convinced that this could be another season of horrors in Arizona.

Also, consider this, courtesy of Yahoo Sports:

WR Isaac Bruce had 14 receptions of 20 or more yards last season, as the 49ers ranked fifth in the league with 64 plays of more than 20 yards. Bruce enters this season as the team’s No. 1 receiver.

Mike Singletary made the decision to go with Shaun Hill as his starting QB, and I think it was a great decision. Hill is not flashy, nor is he an every-week fantasy starter by any means. He does, however, have a 90.5 career QB rating and an 18-9 TD-INT ratio in 12 career starts. Since he averages more than a touchdown per start, and considering that Isaac Bruce is his #1 target, chances are solid that these two will form a nice Week 1 combo against an Arizona defense that became overrated last year because of a nice run in the playoffs.

From Week 12 on last year, Bruce had only one game in which he caught fewer than five passes. Especially if you are in a PPR league, Bruce is a very good option as a 3rd WR or flex play this week.

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett, Dallas Cowboys (vs Tampa Bay)

My #1 choice as a sleeper pick at the tight end position is actually Vernon Davis. But since I discussed him yesterday in my Start/Sit column, and just talked about why the 49ers’ passing game has a solid matchup, I’ll go in another direction.

Straight to MartyB, Mr. Cap’N Crunch himself.

I wrote earlier this preseason about why I think Martellus Bennett is a great sleeper pick for the season at the tight end position. Considering the onus that the Cowboys have placed on getting both of their tight ends involved in the offense this year (with 2-TE sets rumored to be on the menu perhaps as much as 50% of the time) I think Jason Garrett and Tony Romo will give Bennett some opportunities to get involved in Week 1.

Don’t forget, the freakishly athletic Bennett turned four of his 20 catches into touchdowns last year. His ability to go up and get the football makes him a very inviting target in the red zone. While Jason Witten will obviously be more valuable, and catch a lot more balls, don’t be shocked if Bennett ends up the season with more touchdowns and becomes the Cowboys’ #1 threat inside the 20.

Tampa Bay is rebuilding its defense and I expect the Cowboys to have a good showing on Sunday. If you’re not satisfied with your tight end, Bennett is a great name to consider. He’s clearly not as valuable in a PPR league, but in scoring leagues he offers nice upside for a guy owned in just 7% of Yahoo leagues.

Week 1 Sleeper Pick: Defenses

New Orleans Saints (vs Detroit)

I’m really not a big fan of any of the defenses owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues, but there are two facing rookie QBs making their first NFL starts: New Orleans and Houston (facing Mark Sanchez and the Jets).

Matthew Stafford has looked pretty bad this preseason, yet he will no doubt be asked to throw the ball a lot in Week 1 as the Lions try to keep pace with Drew Brees and the Saints’ O. New Orleans does not have a great D by any means, and Detroit will most likely get some yards and even some points with Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson, but Stafford is too young and inexperienced not to throw a few ill-advised picks. I would not be shocked in the least to see the Saints take one or two of them to the house, and to see them pick up a few sacks on the rookie.

And finally, to hell with kickers. They’re all a crapshoot anyway. 

That concludes our proceedings here this morning. As always, feel free to chime in with your comments below and I’ll respond as soon as I’m able.

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* – Brady Quinn photo credit: Avoiding the Muse

* – Martellus Bennett photo credit: AP Photo via DayLife.com