Michigan State won all 3 meetings against the Wolverines under Rodriguez, but there is no doubt that this 2011 Michigan team is much different than any the Spartans faced the last 3 years.  This rivalry, which many regard as the fiercest in the Big Ten, means a little more this time around for both teams.

East Lansing’s Spartan Stadium will host a battle for first place of the Big Ten’s Legends Division.  #11 Michigan (6-0, 2-0 conference) and #23 Michigan State (4-1, 1-0 conference) can each take the inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game with a win this Saturday.

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Michigan-Michigan State: Things to consider for Saturday

This matchup, on paper, is a classic example of strengths versus weaknesses.  It will be interesting to see which coach is able to game plan best in order to equalize those gaps, and also to see which players execute those game plans and make big plays.

Michigan comes into this game 7th in the nation in rushing with 257 yards per game.  Obviously, having Denard Robinson, who averages 120 rushing yards per game himself, is a big reason for that.  But Michigan has also had the benefit of piling up healthy rushing totals while leading big in several games this season.

Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images North America

Robinson, the Heisman candidate, has developed the disturbing (for Michigan and their fans, that is) habit of throwing interceptions.  The biggest reason for this, in my opinion, is overconfidence on Robinson’s part.  He believes he can make every throw with his athleticism, and this leads to him forcing the ball when a play simply isn’t there.  Robinson has been able to make a ton of big plays, most notably against Notre Dame and last week against Northwestern, but part of the reason it took a big comeback in both of those games is that the Wolverines turned the ball over so much to begin with.

The big plays have also been a curse in disguise, because on nearly every one of those deep bombs that Denard has unleashed, whether for completions or picks, he has thrown while moving and off his back foot.  That creates a jump ball situation, and often the passes are underthrown, making the receiver come back to the ball, and also the defensive back.  Though wideout Junior Hemingway has shown an uncanny ability to go up and grab those, he won’t always be able to do so, especially against a tough defense like the Spartans.  Robinson, I think, has started to believe that he can heave it and let Hemingway, Roy Roundtree, or Jeremy Gallon go get it.

Michigan State, on the other hand, has excelled defensively.  They are the top ranked defense in the nation in yards allowed (173 per game) and are especially stout against the run, allowing only 64 yards per game.  They are also 3rd in the country in points allowed, giving up just over 10 per game.  In their last game they manhandled Ohio State in Columbus and came within 10 seconds of shutting the Buckeyes out.

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images North America

Senior Wide Receiver B.J. Cunningham has been a monster this season, with 38 catches and an average of over 116 yards per game, tops in the Big Ten.  He became the school’s all-time leaders in receptions in week 2.  Cunningham has twice as many catches as the next Spartan this season, Keshawn Martin, who has 19.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 68 percent of his passes this year, and Cunningham is a big reason why.

Given the trouble Michigan has had keeping big play receivers in check, he might be in for another big game this weekend.  Michigan has allowed an opposing receiver double-digit catches 3 times in 6 games, including huge games by Western Michigan’s Jordan White (12-119 yards) and Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd (13-159 yards).  Cunningham will be the most talented receiver Michigan has seen Floyd, and Michigan State will surely try to exploit that mismatch against Michigan’s secondary.

What Michigan must do to win

For the Wolverines to win, the formula is simple: Denard Robinson must play like Denard Robinson, minus the interceptions.  Michigan can survive one or two turnovers at most, as the Spartans have also shown a propensity to turn the ball over (including 3 times at Ohio State).  But if Robinson plays like he did in the first half of the Northwestern game, Michigan will likely dig themselves a hole too deep to emerge from, especially considering Michigan State leads the Big Ten in time of possession at just over 34 minutes per game.

Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images North America

Michigan must also find a way to limit B.J. Cunningham.  That’s easier said than done, but it can be done by getting solid pressure with Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen and the rest of the defensive line.  If they force Cousins to act quickly, the chances for mistakes will increase.

Vincent Smith should also play a significant role.  Michigan’s offense is at its best when Smith is in the game, as he adds value in the running, receiving and pass blocking phases of the game.  He is so elusive in space that it often only takes a single block to spring him for a big gain.  If he makes a couple big plays look for Michigan to break their losing streak to the Spartans.

What Michigan State must do to win

It’s a no-brainer, but the Spartans must keep Denard Robinson in check.  Last year they forced Robinson into 3 interceptions and limited him to 86 yards on the ground, his lowest total in a game at that point last year.  They must do the same this year.

The defensive backs for Michigan State must look back to the ball in coverage.  Michigan’s receivers are speedy, but Robinson sometimes struggles with accuracy.  The Spartans will have their chances to go after the ball, and they must make a couple big plays when given those chances.

As mentioned, Cousins must get the ball to B.J. Cunningham.  His presence will also open up the middle of the field for tight ends and screens.  Cunningham has a chance to go off in this game, and if he does, the Spartans might just make it 4 in a row.

Lastly, they must control the clock.  If they can use Edwin Baker and LeVeon Bell with any success and keep Robinson off the field for large stretches, they will win.

Michigan-Michigan State Prediction

Michigan State will come out with a huge head of steam and Cousins will connect with Cunningham early and often.  The Spartans, like Northwestern last week, will jump out to a lead in the first half, and Michigan will have to adjust.

But also like last week, adjust the Wolverines will.  Denard will find his mojo, make smart decisions, and run better than he did last year against State.  The Wolverines will force Cousins into some mistakes and take advantage, pulling off a victory in a game I expect to be really exciting down the stretch, as is the norm with Michigan.

• Final Score: Michigan 34, Michigan State 31.

What do you think?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Michigan-Michigan State Game Info:

• Michigan-Michigan State Date: Saturday, October 15
• Michigan-Michigan State Kickoff Time: 12:00 pm ET
• Michigan-Michigan State TV: ESPN
• Michigan-Michigan State Point Spread: Michigan State -2
• Michigan-Michigan State Over/Under: 49

Anyway, here are some things we learned this week:

1. Minneapolis is the Mecca of bad football.

Major football teams that make their home in Minneapolis are a combined 1-8, and things were especially bad this weekend. The University of Minnesota Golden Gophers, who already have home losses to New Mexico State and North Dakota State on their resume, lost 58-0 in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Sunday, the Vikings dropped to 0-4 after losing to the similarly hapless Chiefs.

Wisconsin is lovely in the autumn.

2. States that have shores on Lakes Michigan and Superior are having a great fall.

Maybe Minnesota’s problem is that it borders only Lake Superior and not Lake Michigan. Things are much better in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Michigan is home to the Lions, who made yet another second-half comeback Sunday to remain undefeated; the Wolverines, who shut out the aforementioned Gophers 58-0 and have risen to #12 in the AP poll and #11 in the USA Today poll; and the Tigers, who are headed back to Detroit tied 1-1 with the Yankees in the American League Division Series.

Meanwhile in America’s Dairy, the Packers are a perfect 4-0, the Brewers are one game away from advancing to the National League Championship Series, and . . .

3. Wisconsin is a national championship contender

The Badgers, after a 48-17 creaming of Nebraska, are #4 according to the AP and #5 according to the coaches. Wisconsin’s toughest remaining game is either October 22 at Michigan State or November 19 at Illinois. Wisconsin should be favored in both. The Badgers have a clearer path to an undefeated season than any team other than Boise State. Don’t be surprised to see Wisconsin in New Orleans on January 9.

4. So is Clemson.

Yes, really. Clemson, currently #8 in both polls, may have a better trio of quality wins than anyone in the country. The Tigers are coming off of consecutive victories over defending national champion Auburn, preseason top-5 Florida State (albeit without starting QB EJ Manuel), and Virginia Tech in Blacksburg (by a score of 23-3). Clemson still has Georgia Tech in Atlanta, South Carolina in Columbia, and (possibly but probably) the ACC Championship Game, but the Tigers are more than capable of winning all three.

5. Brady Hoke made all my football dreams come true.

I’ve long been an advocate of 2-quarterback formations. Having 2 good quarterbacks should never be reason for controversy. Just play them both at the same time. (I’m not really an Xs-and-Os guy.)

Saturday, on the second play of Michigan’s public shaming of Minnesota, coach Brady Hoke put back-up QB Devin Gardner under center and lined up Denard Robinson as a third halfback. The Wolverines used the 2-QB set 4 times against the Gophers. I can only hope that they’ll return to this formation next week at Northwestern.

6. Alex Smith might be an NFL quarterback after all.

Smith went for a respectable 21-for-33 for 291 yards, 2 touchdowns, and zero interceptions in the 49ers’ road win over the Eagles on Sunday. I was going to make an “Alex Smith has gotten more chances than anyone not named ________” joke, but I couldn’t think of anyone in sports, entertainment, or any other walk of life who has gotten more chances, without doing anything to earn them, than Alex Smith.

At any rate, Smith is the starting quarterback on a team that is 3-1 (and was very nearly 4-0) and already has a 2-game lead in its division. He’s also 8th in the NFL in quarterback passer rating. (I know it’s a flawed stat, but still.)

7. Chris Johnson might still be an NFL running back.

In his first 3 games this season, Johnson rushed for a total of 98 yards on 48 carries. That’s barely 2 yards per attempt. Sunday against the Browns, he ran for 101 yards on 23 carries. Granted, it was one game, against the Browns. But for Titans fans and fantasy owners who had been waiting for C.J. To have a breakout game, “Johnson (101)” was a welcome sight.

8. Devin Hester is the most accomplished punt returner in NFL history.

Hester took a punt 69 yards into the end zone during the Bears’ victory Sunday over the Panthers, setting an NFL record with 11 career punt returns for touchdowns. You know who didn’t send Hester a congratulatory text? Hester’s old friend Nevin Shapiro.

9. Three NFL teams started Purdue quarterbacks this week.

Purdue football fans haven’t had much to feel good about lately. But on a weekend when the Boilers lost 38-10 to Notre Dame, 3 former Purdue quarterbacks started for pro teams (Brees, Orton, and Painter). Sure 2 of the 3 lost, but Curtis Painter (281 yards and no picks) played better than expected, and Purdue fans need something take pride in right now. Boiler up.

10. The MLB Playoffs have lived up to their opening act.

I feared that there was no way baseball’s Playoffs could be as exciting as the final night of the regular season, but so far the postseason hasn’t disappointed. Three of the 4 series were tied after 2 games, and there have been plenty of close games, lead changes, and gutty performances.

Last night the Rangers scored 4 runs in the 7th to edge out the Raymonds, and Justin Verlander pitched an 8-inning, 11-strikeout win against the Yankees. Sunday night, the Cardinals came back from down 4 to prove that Cliff Lee isn’t invincible in October. Perhaps last Wednesday was just an hors d’oeuvre.

11. Angel McCoughtry is the best professional athlete you’ve never heard of.

If you live in Minnesota and you’re depressed about the Vikings, Gophers, Twins, etc., you might want to follow the Lynx, who have a 1-0 lead in the WNBA Finals. If you do watch the remaining Finals games between the Lynx and the Atlanta Dream, pay attention to the Dream’s Angel McCoughtry, the best professional athlete you’ve never heard of.

Even people who ignore the WNBA have heard of Diana Taurasi, Candace Parker, and Maya Moore (of the Lynx). Casual fans know Cappie Pondexter and Tamika Catchings (this year’s MVP). But few know about McCoughtry who is as good as any of them. The 6-1 forward has carried the Dream through the Playoffs—along the way eliminating my Indiana Fever with a barrage of jump shots that would have won her a HORSE tournament—and Sunday night scored 33 in a losing effort. McCoughtry already holds WNBA records for points in a Conference Finals game (42) and in a Finals game (35). Don’t be surprised if she saves the Dream from elimination and leads them to a title.

12. Kobe Bryant is getting ready to return to his childhood home.

Bryant and Italian club Virtus Bologna are working on a deal to bring Bryant to the country where he spent much of his childhood. Joe “Jellybean” Bryant, Kobe’s dad, signed with an Italian basketball team when Kobe was 6. Joe retired and moved the family back to the states when Kobe was 13. Bryant has said it would be a “dream” to play in Italy, but I’m guessing that he’d have no trouble letting go of that dream if the NBA lockout were to end today (and it almost certainly won’t).

13. Disney is really counting on people taking Real Steel seriously.

For each hour of sports you watched this weekend, you saw no fewer than 7 ads for Disney’s forthcoming movie Real Steel. Apparently, Disney believes that people will flock to theaters next week to see the Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots movie. Disney is probably right. As a species we can’t resist special effects.

In fairness, Real Steel wasn’t inspired by Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots but by a pretty good 1956 Richard Matheson short story (“Steel”) that was the basis for a pretty good Twilight Zone episode. Neither the story nor the Twilight Zone episode were about a kid building a fighting robot with his estranged father. Rather, both were about an aging former boxer who refused to give up on his battered, out-of-date boxing robot. In a desperate effort to win money to repair his bot, the old fighter takes the robot’s place in the ring. (It’s not as ridiculous as it sounds.)

For the first time since 1929 both Ohio State and Michigan will have new coaches in the same year. Indiana will be starting the 2011 season with their 28^th coach in the school history, and Minnesota will begin the season with their 31^stcoach in school history.

Here is how the four new coaches in the Big Ten got their new coaching jobs.

Brady Hoke (Michigan)

Hoke was a long time assistant at Michigan before he became a head coach.  He was an assistant coach at Michigan from 1995-2002, before he left to become the head coach at Ball State.  Hoke coached at Ball State for six seasons, and in his last season (2008) he led the Cardinals to a 12-1 season.  After that season, Hoke would take the San Diego State heading job and would coach there for two seasons until 2010.  His last season coaching the Aztecs had a 9-4 record and won the Poinsettia Bowl.

Hoke is off to a good start at Michigan, already assembling one of top recruiting classes for 2012.

Kevin Wilson (Indiana)

Wilson was co-offensive coordinator at Oklahoma from 2002-2010 and was regarded as one of the top assistant coaches in all of college football.  He was two-time finalist for the Frank Broyles Award given to college football’s top assistant coach.  In 2008, Wilson won the award when the Sooners went to the BCS National Championship.  While at Oklahoma he was one of the main reasons that the Sooners consistently had great offenses.

Wilson should be able to get his offense off to a good start with standout wide receiver Demarlo Belcher as a weapon.

Jerry Kill (Minnesota)

Kill has been a head coach since 1994 when he became the head coach at Saginaw Valley State.  Before landing the head coaching job at Minnesota, Kill was the head coach at Northern Illinois for three seasons.  During his brief stay at Northern Illinois, Kill led the Huskies to three straight bowl games.  In his last season at Northern Illinois, the Huskies won the MAC West Division Title and finished the season with 10 wins.

Many people questioned the hiring of Kill but he has never had a losing record at any of his previous heading coaching stops.

Luke Fickell (Ohio State)

Fickell had been named the interim head coach for Jim Tressel while he served his five game suspension for violating NCAA rules.  After Tressel’s resignation, Fickell was quickly named the head coach of the Buckeye football team.  Fickell played for the Buckeyes during the 1990’s and was a member of the 1997 Rose Bowl Championship team.   Fickell became graduate assistant in 1999 for Ohio State for one season before being named the defensive line coach at Akron.  It wouldn’t take long for Fickell to return to Ohio State and in 2002 he rejoined the Buckeye coaching staff as a special team’s coordinator.

Fickell will have a very difficult job the next few seasons but if he can ride out the storm, it shouldn’t take long to get Ohio State back to the top of the Big Ten.

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* – Brady Hoke photo credit: via Erick Smith, USA TODAY

* – Kevin Wilson photo credit: Darron Cummings – AP via Crimsonquarry 

For fans of Michigan football, there hasn’t been much to get excited about lately, but perhaps the Brady Hoke Era can restore the past greatness of Big Blue. If so, then the entire city of Ann Arbor and most of the whole damn state of Michigan will have “Hokeamania”…meaning this shirt will be a must have.

Click here to buy “Hokeamania” T-Shirt at AlternativeHero.com

Part of the reason why I like this shirt and wanted to post it is that it reminds me of the “Crean and Crimson” shirts that were all the rage in Bloomington after Tom Crean took over as IU’s basketball coach. Both Michigan football and Indiana basketball are in somewhat similar situations – former national powers who are struggling to regain prominence – so I can empathize with you, Michigan fan.

The jury is still very much out on whether Crean is the answer in Bloomington, although his first 2+ years have definitely been a net positive. Hopefully, for your sake, the Hoke Era starts out the same way.

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* – Midwest Sports Fans does not make any money off the sales of T-shirts that come as a result of this post. The fine folks at Alternative Hero did send us a few free shirts a while back though, so every now and then I like to repay the favor and highlight shirts of theirs I particularly like.

The Sporting News, citing the San Diego Union-Tribune website, is reporting that Brady Hoke will be named the new head coach at San Diego State later this week. San Diego State will most likely buy out the last year of Hoke’s Ball State contract for $240,000 and then will likely triple that salary as part of Hoke’s new contract.

I haven’t seen anything yet that discusses whether or not Brady Hoke will coach Ball State in their bowl game, but I’ll keep checking.

I did read an interesting opinion piece of this move, written by Cory McCartney at SI.com. McCartney is surprised, as many others may be as well, that Brady Hoke is making the jump all the way across the country to San Diego. Not only does he leave the recruiting base he has developed at Ball State, but he takes over a team that has been awful for the past few years. According to McCartney, the San Diego State Aztecs ranked 91st or lower in 13 major national statistical categories this season — which no doubt led to the firing of former head coach Chuck Long.

McCartney does go on to explain that Hoke has San Diego State ties because his brother was once an assistant there, and that Brady Hoke recruited California when he was an assistant coach at Michigan. Add up the fact that San Diego State has better facilities, a better tradition, better weather, and that SDSU will pay him more money, and the move really is not all that surprising. Hoke’s name was mentioned in connection with the Auburn job as well (he interviewed), but he wisely struck while the iron is hot and parlayed his Ball State success into a bigger payday and a higher profile job.

The best point made by McCartney is that while the move may seem curious because of San Diego State’s dubious recent performance, it is not all that dissimilar from a move made by another coach who is pretty high up on the totem pole now: Urban Meyer. Meyer jumped from the MAC (Bowling Green) to Mountain West Conference (Utah) and then parlayed success there into his current gig at Florida.

Can Brady Hoke experience the same type of meteoric rise to the top of the coaching ranks in college football? That remains to be seen, but I think it is pretty hard to argue with this move from Hoke’s perspective.

Typically, when coaches make moves like this before a bowl game, they move onto their new team quickly. With so many administrative and recruiting tasks to get ironed out, including selecting a coaching staff, schools usually want their new coach on the job immediately. I will be interested to see how Brady Hoke and Ball State handle this.

The Cardinals play Tulsa in the GMAC Bowl on January 6, 2009. That is a long time from now, and will be a long time for San Diego State to wait for their new coach to be working on the Aztecs and not the Cardinals. Plus, from a Ball State perspective, you are preparing to close out the greatest season in the history of your school and you don’t want to end it with two straight losses. Wouldn’t you want a coach who will be 100% focused on Ball State and on beating Tulsa, not on getting things organized for his new job?

My prediction is that Brady Hoke will take off immediately to his reclamation work at San Diego State, and the Ball State Cardinals will move forward with an assistant coach taking over the reins. Nate Davis and the boys deserve to be coached in their bowl game by someone who is 100% committed to Ball State. This is not a knock on Brady Hoke — I’m sure he’d love to coach them in the GMAC bowl and finish what he started. But college football and coaching is business, and you cannot begrudge Brady Hoke for taking a job that will pay him three times what he is making and advance his career. That’s just the nature of the beast, and it is the situation that mid-level programs like Ball State face when they find a really good coach.

Congratulations to Brady Hoke, who deserves to take the next step in his career. And good luck to the Ball State Cardinals. You may not have your head coach for the GMAC Bowl, but you certainly will have the support of football fans everywhere in the state of Indiana, who don’t have much else other than Notre Dame-Hawaii to keep us interested this bowl season.