Unfortunately, that moment was the high point of the first two months of the 2010 baseball season.

The White Sox lost the next four games and have been fighting just to get their heads above water ever since. As things stand today, with the White Sox having completed their April and May slate of games, the South Siders are a pathetic 22-28, 8.0 games behind Minnesota in the AL Central.

Yet all hope is not lost for the 2010 season…at least not for me…at least not yet.

The White Sox undoubtedly need a monster June to position themselves to compete for a division title during the second half of the season, and there are plenty of legitimate statistical reasons to believe that such a month is possible.

Yes, somehow I see good things right around the corner for the Sox with one merciful flip of a calendar page that will happen after today. Let’s down them down.

1. The Schedule

The White Sox schedule was not awful over the first two months of the season, but it was difficult, with an opponents winning percentage of .512. April and May featured seven games against the Rays, five against the Twins, three against the Yankees, and eight against surprising Toronto. The Tigers, Rangers, and Angels were all also sprinkled in there as well.

Chicago also did not help matters by playing poorly against the easier teams on its schedule, most notably the damn Indians, who the Sox have given six of their 18 victories.

In June, however, the White Sox only see the “mighty” Indians three times and overall face a schedule with a current winning percentage of .469 (as of May 30th). Instead of the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays, the White Sox get the Cubs (6 times), Pirates (3), and Nationals (3). June also does include seemingly tougher sets with the Rangers, Braves, and Tigers, but overall it is much kinder.

All in all, just by schedule alone, one could reasonably expect the White Sox to play closer to .500 baseball during June. Sadly that would be an improvement, but hey, we’ll take any improvement we can get at this point.

2. The Speed

Much was made in the offseason of the White Sox getting faster and becoming less reliant on the long ball to score runs. This supposed return to the “small ball” principles of Ozzie’s first couple of years in Chicago did not seem to be paying dividends early in the season, but that started to turn around in May.

New leadoff hitter Juan Pierre, after a horrid start to the year in which he hit .193 in April and scored just 8 runs, rebounded in May to hit .286, steal 10 bases, and score 14 runs. While Pierre’s .339 OBP in May still left something to be desired, the improvement in production from the leadoff spot was imperative, as was the lineup’s ability to turn Pierre’s speed into runs.

Similarly, Alex Rios produced an across the board spike during May. The team’s clear MVP through the season’s first two months had a whopping 1.106 OPS during May while stealing 7 bases and scoring 22 runs.

It has been a long, long time since the White Sox enjoyed this much speed at the top of the order, and with the power of Paulie, CQ, and Andruw Jones so inconsistent, the ability to manufacture runs takes on increasing importance.

If the May turnaround at the top of the order continues into June, the much maligned White Sox offense should continue its improvement, led by the speedy Pierre and the speed/power combo of Rios that has him on pace for 33 HRs and 48 SBs.

3. The Splits

This is easily the most important of the three reasons, mainly because it is the most compelling and predictive of what we can expect from certain White Sox players in June based on their career averages.

Gavin Floyd

What led me to dig into this topic in the first place was wondering how far off Gavin Floyd’s current numbers were from where he usually sits at the end of May. I was considering dropping him in a fantasy league, but thought I should do a little more research first because he’s always seemed like a slow starter.

It’s a good thing I looked.

For his career, Floyd is 7-2 in 13 career June starts with a 3.12 ERA and a sizzling WHIP of 1.15. June is by far his best month of the season. Contrast that with his career April (8-8, 6.30 ERA) and May numbers (7-8, 5.47 ERA), and Floyd’s current 6.02 ERA and 1.54 WHIP don’t seem all that unusual.

If the rest of Floyd’s 2010 season go according to history, he should win 10-12 games and sport an ERA right around 4.00. But the White Sox need wins now to ensure that the team does not get broken up and that there is meaningful post-All Star break baseball on the South Side; that means June is do-or-die.

No White Sox player is as historically dominant in June as Gavin Floyd. He needs to keep that trend going.

Paul Konerko

Maybe I should have said that no White Sox pitcher is as historically dominant in June as Gavin Floyd, because ol’ Paulie usually rakes pretty well during the season’s third month as well.

Consider these June/career splits for Paul Konerko:

• BA: .296 / .277
• OPS: .911 / .845
• AB per HR: 14.8 / 18.4

Paul’s career averages are already very solid. During the month of June, they become very good to almost great.

We all know how streaky Konerko can be; heck, just look at his April/May splits this year (1.197 OPS in April, .712 in May). For the White Sox to experience the kind of June turnaround they need to become contenders, Paul Konerko’s June production must fall in line with his career norms. If so, he an Alex Rios could form one of the most underrated and productive 3-4 combos in the league and drive in a lot of runs together.

Mark Buehrle

Gavin Floyd isn’t the only pitcher and Paul Konerko isn’t the only White Sox veteran who loves the month of June. Mark Buehrle also seems to enjoy June more than any other month as well.

Consider the following:

• Mark Buehrle has started 50 June games during his career, tied with April for the fewest of any month; yet Buehrle has won 27 games in June, more than any other month,  and lost only 11 games, the fewest of any month.
• Buehrle’s 3.38 career June ERA is bested only by his 3.30 career ERA in May. His 1.18 June WHIP is better than any other month.
• Buehrle strikes out more batters per nine innings and walks fewer during June than in any other month.

While Buehrle’s splits are not anywhere near as extreme as Floyd’s, June has always been his best month. With a 4.38 ERA right now in 2010, Mark needs another strong June to rebound and get closer to his career ERA of 3.82.

AJ Pierzynski

Continuing with our batter-after-pitcher trend, AJ Pierzynski is another White Sox vet who loves June. He’ll need a productive one to get his current .211 batting average closer to last year’s surprising .300 clip, which came during what was one of his best seasons at the dish.

For his career, AJ is a .283 hitter but a .312 hitter in June. Both numbers presage improvement for AJ moving forward. Veteran baseball players usually revert to their career norms and AJ has proven to be much, much better than a .211 hitter.

The good news for the White Sox is that AJ doesn’t just slap more singles during June. He hits with more power as well. AJ’s career .424 slugging percentage improves to .481 in June. His on base percentage also improves, up to .350 from its norm of .324 as AJ has a slightly higher walk rate in June.

Freddy Garcia

How about another pitcher? Sure!

Freddy Garcia may have a tenuous grip on the 5th starter’s slot with Dan Hudson nipping at his heels in the minors, but the White Sox may want to delay any decisions until after June. Freddy has a career ERA of 4.12 and is sporting a 5.26 ERA so far this season, but history suggests that Freddy will pitch well in June, sputter for the next two months after that, and then pitch his best in September.

For his career, Garcia has a 3.79 ERA in June and a 1.23 WHIP with a record of 24-11. The White Sox would certainly welcome numbers even 80-85% of that from Garcia at the back end of the rotation.

The other months for Garcia are littered with 4+ ERAs and 1.3+ WHIPs, but he gets serious again in September, as White Sox fans know from 2005, and has a 26-11 record, 3.31 ERA, and and 1.17 WHIP in 51 career September starts (the most of any month).

If Garcia can pick it up in June, along with Floyd and Buehrle, his September prowess just may have some significance.

Alexei Ramirez and Others

Those five guys, all veterans with established track records, show clear historical preference for the month of June. Another guy who loves June, though whose experience is not quite as extensive, is Alexei Ramirez.

The Cuban Missile has a solid .316/.362/.505 June line and has hit 10 career June homers, the most of any month. Alexei also has solid July and August numbers, but June is clearly his preferred month, and usually the point at which he snaps out of his early season doldrums to become a productive member of the offense.

With a .254 average and only 4 HRs so far this season, Alexei could use another June turnaround, and there is no reason to think he won’t do it again.

There are also some other guys on the White Sox roster who have done well historically in June, though perhaps not as markedly as the guys mentioned above:

• John Danks‘ 3.09 ERA in June is his second best (3.03, April)
• Bobby Jenks‘ 2.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are his second best (1.21 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, August)
• June is Mark Teahen’s most productive month other than September.

Conclusion

What does all this mean? Not a whole hell of a lot in reality. It really just means that frustrated White Sox fans like me, KVB, and you (if you’re a White Sox fan, which I assume you are if you’re read this far) should wait at least one more month before burying the 2010 Pale Hose.

And I know what you’re probably thinking. So what if the White Sox have a great June? If all of these guys peak in June, how will they have enough in July, August, and September to keep up with Minnesota and Detroit anyway?

That’s a great point, to which I say simply: I don’t care.

The season’s last three months will be irrelevant if the White Sox do not have a huge June. If they can position themselves to compete by the beginning of July, anything is possible. If they stay 5-6 games under .500 come the All Star Break, you can start breaking out the shovels and eulogies for the 2010 White Sox.

The White Sox would need to go 17-10 in June to creep back over .500. If they can do this, they’ll be 39-38 heading into July, and you’d have to think somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5 games out of first place. That isn’t a great position to be in, and the odds of winning the AL Central would still be against the White Sox, but it’d sure be a hell of a lot better than six games under and 8.0 back. At least the team would have a shot.

So the question is, can a team currently playing .440 baseball play .630 baseball for an entire month to get its head above water? The easy answer is probably not; the hopeful answer, however, is (you can put it on the board…) yes.  Luckily for those hoping, there is at least some statistical evidence, as laid out in this post, to suggest that it’s possible.

And wouldn’t you know it? I saved the most compelling piece of evidence for last.

If you total up the career June won/loss records of the White Sox current starting rotation, which has woefully underperformed expectations so far in 2010, you get 72-40. That is a .643 clip, which is better than the aforementioned .630 clip I cited as getting the White Sox over .500.

So before you think going 17-10 in June is improbable, remember that all the White Sox pitchers need to do is perform to their career norms, and if Paulie, AJ, and Alexei can produce at their usual June clips, the pitchers will get more run support, wins easier to come by, and the White Sox can start to make their move.

With that said, all we can do now is sit back, relax, and strap it down…and hope that June 2010 is as White Sox-friendly as past Junes have been. If so, the White Sox can make it a three team race again and have a fighting chance at their second AL Central crown in three years.

I still believe it can happen, and the numbers suggest that you should too…at least for one more month.

*********

* – Alex Rios photo credit: Jerry Lai/US Presswire via ESPN.com

* – Mark Buehrle / Paul Konerko photo credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images via ESPN.com

* – Paul Konerko photo credit: Rumors and Rants

The White Sox only other sweep of the season came at the end of May when the Good Guys swept three on the road against the Kansas City Royals. And as KVB and I lament to eachother all of the time, the White Sox never seem to complete sweeps. It always seems like any time we take the first two or three games of a series there is a letdown in the final game. Either the regular lineup sleepwalks through the game, we get a terrible pitching performance, or Ozzie throws out one of his crazy lineups where Brian Anderson is hitting cleanup.

I’m exaggerating…but not by much.

Not yesterday though. Last night, the White Sox continued playing the solid brand of baseball that has propelled them to five straight wins and 12 wins in their last 17 games. Over that same time span, a fan base — and maybe even a team and an entire organization — has been reborn into one that expects, rather than hopes, to be playing baseball in October.

At least that’s how I feel. And hopefully the rest of the South Side is with me. (And if you’re not, I have a few words from Steve Perry I’d like to share with you. That’s right, I went there.)

Truthfully, what has transpired over the last couple of weeks has renewed my faith that the White Sox will ultimately come out on top in a very competitive AL Central. I have to admit that through the ups and downs of this season it has been hard to maintain that faith. Case in point: Ozzie saying that we are in trouble if we have to bring up Gordon Beckham…and then shortly thereafter Beckham gets brought up.

And yes, I realize that the majority of the recent success has come against the inferior National League (and then the even more inferior Indians), so I will grant you that the White Sox haven’t exactly been mowing down the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays; but, the Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Reds are all at least decent teams (especially LA, with our without Manny) so I don’t think you can simply chalk up the White Sox success to playing subpar competition.

No, there are many reasons why the White Sox are winning and the majority of them have to do with the players themselves and the better brand of baseball they are playing.

Will they make the playoffs? I’m not going to make any proclamations and jinx them. (Full disclosure: in preparation for this post I researched Jim Fassel’s infamous playoff guarantee when he was coaching the Giants and had planned on altering it for purposes of my own guarantee here. Then I thought the better of it.) But what seemed like a rather ridiculous conversation a few weeks ago is starting to look more and more realistic.

So in honor of the White Sox 40th victory of the season, and because it is my lucky number (in honor of my favorite basketball player of all-time), here are 40 reasons, in no particular order, why the White Sox have a great shot to win the AL Central and make a return trip to the playoffs in 2009.

1 — Ozzie Guillen. The SI players poll may suggest that other players don’t want to play for him, but his own players do. And they have proven it every year outside of that awful and anomalous 2007. As long as Ozzie is the skipper, I’ll always believe in the White Sox. Paws up.

2 — We actually have a productive 1-2 punch at the top of the order! Most White Sox fans had forgotten what that feels like. 2005 hero Scotty Pods and Sexy Alexei have reminded us over the last 50 or so games. If Podsednik can come close to maintaining his .368 OBP, and if Alexei can continue to put his early season woes behind him (and improve upon his .398 SLG), the White Sox will have the run production and speed they need at the top of the lineup.

3 — We get THE Carlos Quentin back around the All Star Break. Remember him? Mr. Porcelain, but also the best player in the American League through the end of August last year? The White Sox offense has fortuitously been able to find its footing over the last month without him, but no one has forgotten how important Quentin is to the overall makeup of our team. Assuming Quentin can even be 80% of his normal self throughout the rest of the season, he will provide a huge presence that has been sorely lacking.

4 — Jose F*****g Contreras. I love this guy. He’s like a phoenix. Every time you think he’s finished he rises again to prove why he was such a hot commodity upon defecting here from Cuba. And there are few guys that I trust more in big spots than Contreras. He was AWFUL to start the year, but since heading down to the minors he has found his touch again and has given up only 9 runs over five starts that have covered a little over 37 innings.

5 — Mark Buehrle is Mark Buehrle. He’s not always pretty, and he’ll get knocked around every now and then, but the numbers are always there. This year he’s 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s an ace. You have to have one to win division titles, and I’ll just say it: you’re wrong if you don’t think Mark Buehrle is an ace.

6 – Gavid Floyd has become the good Gavin again. Gavin’s season has followed an arc similar to Contreras’. He struggled mightily out of the gate, but look at his game log since May 22. Floyd has not gone less that six innings or given up more than three runs in any start. That’s eight quality starts in a row. Even more exciting is the fact that he hasn’t walked more than three batters in any of those starts either. This guy was the #4 overall pick in 2001 by the Phillies for a reason. We’ve seen why over the past 6 weeks.

7 – John Danks has become the good Danks again. Danks is another pitcher who had an up and down first 6 weeks of the season, but has turned it around. And he’s saved his best outings of the season for his two most important starts thus far: his two outings against the Cubs. Danks gave up one run over 14 innings against the Cubs. Yes, their offense sucks, but Danks has pitched four straight quality starts, going at least seven innings in all four, and the guy proved last year that he’s clutch.

8 – Is the quartet of Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Jose Contreras reminding anyone over the last month or so of another White Sox pitching staff of recent vintage? Eating innings, throwing quality starts almost every time out, and stepping up big in key spots…sounds a lot like the 2005 staff to me. Buehrle and Contreras are the holdovers, but Floyd and Danks have been every bit as good as Garland and Garcia. And remember, neither El Duque or Brandon McCarthy was that great in the fifth spot during the regular season that year. If the pitching continues on its current trend, and we know they are capable, this is a World Series-quality staff.

9 – Gordon Beckham is here and he’s every bit as good as advertised. Yeah, the kid struggled out of the gate, but look at his last seven games: 12-21 with a HR and 6 RBI. We all love Josh Fields and wish he had taken ahold of the hot corner when he had his chance, but Beckham is the future. And he is proving that he just may be the present as well.

10 – Did I mention Carlos Quentin is coming back at the All Star Break?

11 – Aaron Poreda is with the big club now and has not given up a run in his first five innings of work out of the bullpen. He has six Ks and only one BB and has given up only four hits. The Rays received a jolt from their phemon pitcher David Price last year. Could Poreda fill a similar role for the White Sox? He’s certainly had an auspicious beginning.

12 – Bobby Jenks is still one of the best closers in the game, and is as battle tested as anyone not named Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. The big man has 18 saves on the season and has 28 Ks in 28 innings this year, a drastic improvement upon his sharply declining K rate from last year. He may not have the same gas he had back in 2005, but he is a much better pitcher now. And he’s already proven his stones on the biggest stage.

13 – Still, there are rumors that the White Sox might trade Bobby Jenks before the trade deadline. I do not want to this happen, nor do I think it will now that we’ve reemerged as a legitimate contender. Closers with Bobby’s stuff, talent, moxie, and proven experience do not grow on trees; and it’s rare to see a team get far in October without one. Regardless, on the off chance that we do trade Jenks, we’ve got a great bullpen filled with guys I would have confidence in to take over the role. (But Kenny…if you’re listening…don’t trade Bobby!)

14 – Matt Thornton has had a few rougher outings of late, but is still holding opponents to a .214 average and has struck out 39 batters in 31.2 innings.

15 – Octavio Dotel is walking way too many guys (21 in 30.2 innings) but has 39 strikeouts of his own through 30.2 innings and has successful closing experience in his past.

16 – D.J. Carrasco has come into his own as a very valuable asset in the bullpen. He’s logged 48.2 innings in 26 games and has an ERA under 3.00. He has given up seven runs over his last six outings though, so he needs to get himself back on track. But, as a former starter, he has the arm strength to be a bullpen savior on days when we need one.

17 – Scott Linebrink has not been great this year, but still has an ERA of 2.17 and averages more than a K per inning. He is not closer material — Thornton or Dotel would pick up that slack if Jenks is moved — but he remains a solid option as a setup man.

18 – Regardless of whether or not Kenny trades Bobby (don’t do it!!!), each of those four guys plus Poreda gives the White Sox an outstanding bullpen that I’d put up against any in the league. Still, I think Kenny will hang onto a proven closing commodity like Jenks, so each of the bullpen guys will get to stay in the roles they have been successful in and form one of the most unsung units in all of baseball.

19 – Ken Williams. He has to be listed as a reason why the White Sox can (and will!) make the playoffs. As White Sox fans we may not agree with all of his moves, but we have to give him this: he never stops being proactive to improve our chances. And I think his gameplan entering this season was brilliant. He put together a vet-laden team with a few new additions that, if everything fell right, had a good chance to make the playoffs. But he also has been restocking the farm system to the point where we can all feel pretty secure that when the Buehrle-Konerko-Dye era ends, the White Sox will be okay.

20 – Let’s get back to the offense, because its resurgence is one of the main reasons why the White Sox have started playing better baseball. And the most important cog in the White Sox offensive machine is still Jermaine Dye. As usual, Jermaine is quietly putting up solid numbers (.294, 18 HR, 48 RBI) and providing a steadying and consistent presence in the middle of the lineup. This guy was a World Series MVP in 2005 and was damn close to being the league MVP in 2006. He’s not quite the same player now — age will do that to you — but he is still good enough to be the second best hitter on a team that makes a deep playoff run.

21 – Carlos Quentin, of course, will hopefully resume his role as the best hitter on the team when he returns. And did I mention that he’s coming back around the All Star Break? My apologies if I didn’t. Quentin is coming back around the All Star Break.

22 – Paul Konerko, like Jermaine Dye, is having a solid season in the heart of the order (.290, 13 HR, 49 RBI). Like Dye, Konerko is not as ferocious as he once was, but is still good enough. And like Dye, Konerko has proven himself in clutch situations. I know that the combo of Dye and Konerko may not be all that sexy or exciting, but there is something to be said for battle-tested veterans who are team leaders and the essence of the term “professional hitters.” Paulie is still getting the job done both at the plate and in the field, as is JD.

23 – Chris Getz sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all of the hullabaloo about Gordon Beckham, but Getz is providing something that our lineup has sorely lacked over the last couple of years: speed. He, Scotty Pods, and Alexei all have 11 or more stolen bases. Finally the White Sox have some people who can put a little pressure on other teams with the running game.

24 – AJ Pierzynski will never wow you with his stats, and he’ll do things that make you scratch your head sometimes (like his putrid ground out on the first pitch with the bases loaded at the end of one of our games last week), but he’s scrappy and he’s a winner. AJ comes through in the clutch more than often than not, and is underrated behind the plate (except for his arm, which can’t really be rated low enough). You need a good catcher to win, and the White Sox have one in AJ.

25 – The White Sox also seem to have found a backup catcher. Ramon Castro has blasted two home runs in 21 ABs since joining the team a couple weeks ago and is a guy who has always had monstrous power. Playing half of his games at The Cell with the weather warming up may be just the opportunity he needs to show that he can be a 25-30 HR guy someday. We’ll gladly take production anywhere close to that from our backup.

(BTW…all stats for the last six or seven of these have been taken from the White Sox hompage.)

26 – A couple of curses ended last year and we don’t have to worry about them anymore. The Jim Thome Curse and The Curse of the Douche Bag.

27 – Detroit has only three starters worth a crap (Verlander, E. Jackson, Porcello) and one of them is a 20-year old rookie (Porcello). Yes, Porcello has been very good this year, but how is his arm going to be holding up in September? He supposedly has a great makeup, but he’s never been through the pressure of a pennant race. If the Tigers cannot some more starting pitching, they are going to fall back even further to the pack.

28 – Curtis Granderson (.339 OBP, 18 HR, 13 SB) and Miguel Cabrera (.331 BA, 16 HR, 47 RBI) are really good, and Brandon Inge has certainly rebounded this year (18 HR, 52 RBI) from his subpar 2008, but what do the Tigers have after that? Magglio is on the sharp downside of his career and just is not supplying power anymore. Look at the other names that have chewed up the most ABs for Detroit this season: Placido Polanco, Gerald Laird, Adam Everett, Josh Anderson. Call me crazy, but I’ll take our offense for the rest of the season…especially once Quentin gets back.

29 – By the way, Quentin is coming back at The All Star Break.

30 – Minnesota is the Chicago’s other main competitor in the AL Central, and they have as many holes as Detroit. I do think that Minnesota’s pitching is better than what the numbers show (i.e. Baker’s 4.99 ERA and Slowey’s 4.41 ERA despite better peripherals) but this is a team that needed Francisco Liriano to be be an ace. Detroit has its ace in Justin Verlander and we have ours in Mark Buehrle. Who is it for the Twins? Baker and Slowey and very good #2-#3 starters, but the Twins do not have a guy who has proven he can take the ball and throw a gem in a big spot when the team needs it. Argue if you wish Twinkie fans, but that’s how I see it.

31 – Offensively, Minnesota has been surprisingly balanced this season. Look at the their team stats and tell me you aren’t surprised to see five guys with double-digit homers on the 2nd of July. In addition to the usual suspects (Mauer and Morneau), Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and (*sob*) Joe Crede all have 11 or more dingers. Add in the speed of Denard Span and Carlos Gomez and the Twins have a more dynamic offense than usual that has been able to somewhat compensate for its struggling pitching. However, this is still a team that goes how Mauer and Morneau go, and you may be surprised to learn that both hit below their career averages against the White Sox. In 331 career ABs against Chicago, Morneau (a .284 lifetime hitter) hits only .275. He has a career OPS of .858 that drops to .840 when playing against Chicago. (For the record, his HR rate is almost identical.) As for Mauer, Mr. .400 blah blah blah, he is a .324 career hitter with an OPS of .881. Against the White Sox that drops to .313 and .858. Are Mauer and Morneau terrible against Chicago? No. Have they come up big at certain points against the White Sox in the past? Yes. But they sure as hell didn’t against John Danks in last year’s one-game playoff, and anytime you make those two hit worse than normal you have a great chance to beat Minnesota.

32 – Detroit and Chicago are big-market teams that will make moves at the deadline to improve their chances this year. Minnesota does not have the same luxury. That knocks the Twins down at least a peg in comparison to the Tigers and White Sox.

33 – Take a look at a quick comparison between the aces of the White Sox and the Tigers. In 15 career starts against Chicago, Justin Verlander is 3-9 with a 5.44 ERA. In 27 career starts against Detroit, Mark Buehrle is 14-8 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. And, for the record, Buehrle is 23-13 lifetime against the Twins. So Peter Gammons and all of the other baseball analysts can go into the bathroom with a moist towelette and a mental image of Verlander’s incredible “stuff”, but the fact of the matter is that he doesn’t get the job done against his division rival. The underrated Buehrle, of course, does. So, in review: Minnesota has no ace, the Tigers do but he sucks against Chicago, and the White Sox ace (who many people erroneously don’t consider to be an ace) dominates the two best teams in his division. HUGE advantage White Sox.

34 – The White Sox schedule in the second half of September sets up beautifully for a late charge to pull away from the pack. From September 21-27 the White Sox play the Twins and Tigers three times each, all of which are in Chicago. These six games are sandwiched between three at home against Kansas City and then three on the road at Cleveland to end the season. And there is actually a good chance Cleveland will have just called off the season by then, giving the White Sox a three-game sweep by forfeit.

35 – Since the White Sox have no more games against the Rangers, I most likely will not be able to see them play live for the rest of the regular season. This is good because I think the White Sox have a .200 winning percentage in games I’ve attended over the years. When KVB and I go together it’s even worse than that. (Be thankful that we never moved to Chicago and got season tickets.) If the Sox make the playoffs, however, and especially if they go deep, I may not be able to stay away. My apologies in advance.

36 – I know, I know…I’ve left someone out who deserves mention: Jim Thome. Now that the White Sox are back playing in AL parks, Thome has returned to the lineup. He is by no means the masher he was in Cleveland or Philly, but the guy is still a productive hitter (.402 OBP, 13 HR, 42 RBI) and a tremendous leader in the clubhouse. It took me a while, but I’ve fully embraced him as a true Good Guy and he is another one of our battle-tested veterans who heats up with the weather.

37 – Time to address the elephant in the room: defense. This is the White Sox biggest weakness. Currently, there are only five teams in baseball with more fielding errors than the White Sox. And no one has had worse defense at the hot corner than Chicago (17 errors, .922 fielding percentage). With Joe Crede gone and the combo of Josh Fields-Gordon Beckham over there, that is to be expected. But on the bright side, this has no place to go but up. And considering that Gordon Beckham has only been playing third base for about a month, his struggles were anticipated. Most seem to think that he is a good enough athlete to become very good defensively at third. As the season goes along, I think we’ll see his production in the field improve.

38 – Another area on defense where the White Sox have struggled is at shortstop, where Alexei Ramirez recently drew the ire of Ozzie Guillen for lackluster and unfocused play. I definitely see this improving. Alexei has all of the tools to be not just a good shortstop, but a great one. And there is no way Ozzie will allow that position to be a consistent weakness.

39 – Getting back to pitching because I forgot someone: Clayton Richard. On the season he is 3-1 with a 4.48 ERA in 22 games (10 starts). Immediately after stepping into the rotation when Bartolo Colon went on the DL, Clayton strung together three straight excellent starts. I then picked him up on my fantasy team and he hasn’t thrown a quality start since. White Sox fans will be happy to know that I’ve dropped him again, which means that he will likely turn things back around. All kidding aside, Richard is nothing more than a 5th starter right now, but he is adequate. And when Colon comes back to the rotation (if he even does), he gives the White Sox a veteran presence who is still capable of putting up halfway decent numbers. The point is that while the White Sox don’t have a world beater in the 5th slot of the rotation, the guys they are throwing out there aren’t horrible. And with the offense picking things up, we can win with Richard or Colon on the bump. And who knows, maybe Poreda steps in there at some point and provides Porcello-like production. Either way, this slot will not keep up from winning the Central.

40 – And finally, reason #40 why the White Sox can, should, and I think will win the AL Central: the return of Carlos Quentin. Am I putting a lot on his shoulders? Yes. Is there a chance he comes back and gets injured again? Yes. But is his presence in the lineup necessary for this team long-term in 2009? I believe it absolutely is. The White Sox are proving they can without TCQ, but when you get one of the best players in the AL back after an extended absence it cannot be anything but a boon to your chances. And Carlos will have the entire second half of the season to get his timing back. Perhaps this year will be a reverse of last year in that Quentin will save his best for September in 2009. We missed him in September last year, but still found a way to claw our way to a playoff berth. With Quentin in September this year, I think the White Sox have a good chance of heading into the playoffs with momentum and their best all-around player hitting on all cylinders.

Say what you will about the 40 reasons listed above, but one thing is certain: those who stuck a fork in the White Sox a few weeks back did so prematurely. For some reason, people always seem to underestimate the managerial and leadership ability of Ozzie Guillen and the heart, character, and talent in the White Sox clubhouse. The good thing is that the only people who matter (Kenny, Ozzie, and the team) never doubted. Over the last three weeks we have seen why, and White Sox fans have every reason to believe that a return trip to the playoffs is not only possible but, at least in my opinion, very probable.

So sit back, relax, and strap it down, and let’s all enjoy what should be a great three-team race for the 2009 AL Central crown…one that will be made all the more exciting when the White Sox end up repeating as champions.

* – Scott Podsednik photo credit: MouthPieceSports.com

Projected Batting Order from Whitesox.com :

1. CF Jerry Owens:
.276 BA, .346 OBP, 30 SB at AAA Charlotte in 2008 (2007 MLB: 356 AB, .267 BA, .324 OBP, 32 SB, )
2. C A.J. Pierzynski:
.281 BA, 13 HR, 60 RBI in 2008
3. LF Carlos Quentin:
.288 BA, 36 HR, 100 RBI, .394 OBP, .571 SLG in 2008
4. DH Jim Thome:
.245 BA, 34 HR, 90 RBI, .362 OBP, .503 SLG in 2008
5. RF Jermaine Dye:
.292 BA, 34 HR, 96 RBI, 41 2B, .541 SLG in 2008
6. 1B Paul Konerko:
.240 BA, 22 HR, 62 RBI in 2008
7. SS Alexei Ramirez:
.290 BA, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 13 SB in 2008
8. 3B Josh Fields:
.246 BA, 10 HR, 35 RBI for Charlotte in 2008 (2007 MLB: 373 AB, .244 BA, 23 HR, 67 RBI, .958 FPCT)
9. 2B Chris Getz:
.302 BA, 11 HR, 52 RBI, 11 SB for Charlotte in 2008

There is nothing wrong with this projection. Center Field and Second Base are the only positions up in the air and will be decided by Ozzie during spring training. The only other CF options are veterans Brian Anderson with Dewayne Wise being the underdog and fan favorite. One of the two will make the team regardless.

At 2B the options are young or experienced. Besides Getz, Wilson Betemit will get a look as he came from the Yankees in the Swisher trade. In this Baseball-Reference.com link Betemit’s seven year career stats are compared to that of Joe Crede (he gone) who was missing from the lineup more than half of the games in 07 and 08. This also opened the door for Josh Fields getting a solid 100 of major league experience in 2007. But back to Betemit specifically, he could easily get a lot of time if the inexperienced Getz doesn’t impress Ozzie. Though there is a lot of confidence verbally from Ozzie already. Whoever has the better glove in spring training will start the season.

Projected rotation from WhiteSox.com :

1. Mark Buehrle, 15-12, 3.79 ERA in 2008
2. Gavin Floyd, 17-8, 3.84 ERA in 2008
3. John Danks, 12-9, 3.32 ERA in 2008
4. Bartolo Colon, 4-2, 3.92 ERA with Red Sox in 2008
5. Clayton Richard, 2-5, 6.04 ERA in 2008

The pitching staff is closer to being in order after the Bartolo Colon signing by GM Ken Williams. Mark Buerhle is still the number one and has been for some time. Gavin “Pretty Boy” Floyd and John Danks look to improve on stellar 2008 campaigns. Both youngsters were the main reasons “The Good Guys” even made the playoffs last year.

The fifth position with Clayton Richard could be good enough if the former Michigan quarterback can get more strikeouts and give up less base hits. If that doesn’t hold to be true in his first full season in the majors you might see Jose Contreras be the man if his ruptured achilles is healed by the All-Star break.

Aaron Poreda is one of the challengers if Richard doesn’t impress in spring training or catches the injury bug. Poreda is looked at as one of the best pitching prospects in the organization and also the biggest ( 6’6″ 240 lbs). He just turned 22 years old in October and has a dominant stat line after a short 2007 in rookie league and a 2008 season in single and double A: 2.69 ERA 1.09 WHIP 207.1 IP 166 K and only 7 home runs given up in that span.

Pitchers and catchers will report Sunday February 15th so the season is fast approaching. I would say I have the White Sox finishing in first place this year but that wouldn’t be different then any other year. GO GO WHITE SOX!

In all my years as a Chicago White Sox fan, few players have captured my attention and adoration like Bobby Jenks. And the arrival of today’s Sports Illustrated added to the legend of Bobby Jenks in each of the ways described in the headline. I will get to that; but first, a quick retrospective on the meteoric rise to South Side stardom that Bobby Jenks has experienced during his 4-year Major League career.

In 2005 Bobby Jenks, who was originally drafted by the then-Anaheim Angels, descended upon the South Side of Chicago like a haloed blessing from the baseball gods. He pitched in all four games of the White Sox World Series sweep over the Houston Astros, securing two saves, giving up only three hits, and striking out seven with the kind of high-octane, unhittable gas that I imagine Walter Johnson rocketing towards the plate way back during the dawning of baseball as our national pastime.

White Sox fans will remember that Dustin Hermanson began the 2005 season as our closer, and was spectacular. Through 57 games, Hermanson gave only 13 earned runs (a 2.07 ERA) while saving 34 games. Injuries sidelined him late in the second half of the season and throughout the playoffs, thus opening the door for the dawning of Bobby Jenks as the White Sox 9th-inning dominator.

While Jenks’ personality on the mound is relatively low key, there has always been something about him that is larger than life. The most obvious larger than life characteristic of Bobby Jenks is his physical presence. He is listed at 6’3″, 275, and seems even bigger than that. Plus, off the mound, he has always seemed to have that stereotypical “jolly, fun-loving, big guy” disposition. And most White Sox fans will remember the rumors and whispers of possible off-the-field issues that followed him after the Angels essentially gave up on him.

Bobby Jenks was virtually unknown when he joined the White Sox in 2005, but ensured that no matter what happened from 2006 on he would always hold a place in the pantheon of beloved Sox players. Striking out 50 batters in your first 39 1/3 Major League innings, saving the bullpen after Hermanson’s injury, and getting the final out in the World Series for a city starved for a baseball championship will give you legendary status.

We all wondered whether Bobby Jenks was just a hulking flash in the pan, or the White Sox closer of the future. In the three years since 2005, he has saved 41-40-30 games while amassing a career ERA of 3.09. In short, he has answered any questions about whether or not his 2005 performance was a fluke.

And the most recent issue of Sports Illustrated, which includes excerpts from a book written by former Angels farmhand Matt McCarthy, has given us a brief glimpse into Bobby’s time with Angels, and his ignominious release — which we should all be thankful for every time he shuts the 9th inning door on the opposition this season.

The introduction of Bobby Jenks comes about five pages into the article, with this incredible description:

Mitch froze after his eighth throw to me. From his expression I thought he’d either pulled a muscle or seen a ghost. Turning around, I saw a tall, overweight, bald man getting out of a truck. Mitch walked toward me and in a hushed voice whispered, “That’s Bobby. He throws a hundred.”

Bobby was Bobby Jenks, a pitcher who’d attained mythical status in Mesa before his arrival. Raised in the backwods of Idaho, Jenks, at age 19, had been 6’3″, 280 pounds, with a 100-mph fastball, and was considered one of the most promising talents in the 2000 draft. But many teams passed on him because of questions about his character. There were rumors that he was an alcoholic and that he had a history of violence. The Angels took a chance and signed him in the fifth round for $175,000.

Bobby was an object of intense curiosity to many in the baseball community; everyone seemed to have an opinion of him. ESPN’s Peter Gammons called him a ‘monster,’ while others compared him with the fictional Nuke LaLoosh in the movie Bull Durham.

From where I was standing, Bobby Jenks looked like a night-club bouncer. He disappeared into the locker room and after 15 minutes appeared on the field with us. “Well, look who it is,” said Bruce Hines, an Angels’ field coordinator.

“I’m here,” Jenks replied flatly.

“Nice of you to join us, Bobby.”

“Just trying to help the Angels win a World Series.”

“You’re moving in the wrong direction for that, Bobby. All right, we’re about to scrimmage. Bobby, you’re in charge of broken bats.”

I wonder what Bruce Hines was thinking watching Bobby Jenks get the last out of the 2005 World Series? As you read more in the SI article, it becomes clear that Bobby Jenks may have thought in his own mind that he was trying to help someone win a World Series, but it certainly wasn’t the Angels.

All the better for White Sox fans.

According to the accounts of Matt McCarthy, the questionable character issues that many people feared when Jenks was 19 reared their destructive head during his time with the Angels. They eventually led to the Angels giving up on Jenks in December of 2004, and the White Sox subsequently claimed him off waivers for $20,000. The rest, as they say, is history.

But a lot more happened during the one year that Matt McCarthy and Bobby Jenks were teammates that made its way into McCarthy’s book and into this week’s issue of Sports Illustrated. And the brief accounts of Jenks that McCarthy provides helps to give us a more well-rounded picture of who Bobby Jenks was, and how far he has come to grow into one of the most dependable players in all of Major League Baseball since his call-up in 2005.

Seriously, I defy you to come up with 20 names of players who have been more consistently successful over the past half decade, without any significant dips in production for even a short period of time, while meaning as much to their respective teams as Bobby Jenks. And this is a guy who was described as a 19-year old as a drunken, violent, monstrous Nuke LaLoosh.

Scouts, in general, must scratch their heads as much, if not more, than people in any other profession.

Back to the McCarthy book excerpt in SI. A few other interesting quick-hits about Bobby Jenks:

– Describing his time in Little Rock, which preceded his arrival in Mesa, Jenks explained that he and the coach in Little Rock had personality issues. “He said I threatened to kill him,” Jenks is quoted as saying. He then adds, “It was just a figure of speech. I really didn’t mean it.”

– According to McCarthy, Jenks called out then-Angels farmhand Derrick Turnbow for being “so ‘roided out, it’s ridiculous.” Turnbow, of course, would later become both an All Star and the first Major Leaguer to be publicly identified as having tested positive for steroids.

– And lest you look at Bobby Jenks and wonder whether he was using steroids or other banned performance enhancing drugs to supplement his workouts, the better question would be whether Jenks even works out at all. Consider this exchange, as recalled by McCarthy:

“Any interest in hitting the weights?” I asked Bobby, knowing that there was no chance. He shook his head.

“I’ll let you in on a little secret,” he whispered. “Tell ‘em you have a bad back, and they don’t make you do a thing. Lift weights? Not with a bad back. Run? Not with a bad back. Stretch? You can’t with a bad back. It’s the life man.”

Hmm…that’ll make White Sox fans think twice the next time Jenks misses time with any “injury” to his back. Something tells me that to get where he is, Jenks’ stance on weight-lifting and conditioning has improved at least a little. He did suffer some nagging injuries last year, but otherwise he has been the picture of consistency and reliability.

– McCarthy says that alcohol was a problem for Jenks throughout his time with the Angels. He claims that Jenks showed up hung over for “more than a few games” and was suspended for bringing beer onto the team bus.

– In one of the more random and interesting anecdotes relayed by McCarthy, he says that Jenks “married a woman that he met at the drive-through window of Dick’s.” According to Bobby Jenks’ player page on Chisox.com, he is married to a woman named Adele and has two kids, Cuma and Nolan. I’m assuming that Adele is the infamous woman from the drive-through. If so, McCarthy’s use of this anecdote to illustrate Jenks’ impetuousness and immaturity at the time does not necessarily hold water. Perhaps it was capricious then, but if they are still together, I guess it was meant to be.

My favorite anecdote of all I have saved for last. McCarthy describes on afternoon walking into the clubhouse and finding Bobby Jenks “splayed out on a trainer’s table” reading a magazine:

“What are you reading about?” I asked.

“Me,” he said flatly. “Everybody’s got something to f—–g say about Bobby Jenks. One day I’m an alcoholic; the next day I’m the second coming of Christ.” I laughed awkwardly, trying to think of how I would describe him. “I’m a damn bargain is what I am,” he continued as he rolled onto his stomach. “Hundred-and-seventy-five-thousand dollars for a guy with my s–t?

“And what do they do? They send me to this hellhole with guys who don’t belong in pro ball.” It wasn’t a stretch to imagine he was talking about guys like me.

“How many guys can throw a hundred miles an hour?” he asked me as he tossed the magazine on the floor.

“Probably a dozen,” I offered.

“How many guys on this planet can throw a ball a hundred miles an hour?” he said in a much louder voice as he sat up.

“I can think of one,” said a large man with shoulder-length brown hair as he sauntered into the room and calmly submerged himself in a vat of ice. It was Angels reliever Derrick Turnbow, in Mesa on a rehab assignment. A year earlier he had suffered a displaced fracture of the ulna while throwing one of his 100-mph fastballs.

“Now, I can’t say that I’ve ever seen you hit triple digits,” Bobby said playfully.

“Go to hell, Jenks,” Turnbow said…”Talk to me when you’ve pitched a game in the big leagues.”

That specific anecdote continues with Jenks’ suggestion that Turnbow is “so ‘roided out” as I described above. I have to admit that I laughed out loud reading about Jenks sprawled out and then rolling over on his gargantuan stomach while wondering how he could be so underpaid with his “s–t”. It certainly paints Jenks as a brash young player, but also gives us a window into the almost aloof, but absolute, confidence that makes him such a great closer.

The rest of the SI article is really interesting, and provides many more behind-the-scenes stories that the players involved may not necessarily enjoy having published. McCarthy’s book, from which the SI article is excerpted, is called Odd Man Out; and since I’ve cited it so much I’ll be nice and give you a link (non-affiliate, for the record) to where you can buy it. I definitely suggest you at least buy the issue of SI, if you don’t have a subscription already. I couldn’t find this particular article on their website, but it’s definitely worth a read as this article, as well as the now infamous SI expose on ARod’s steroid use, make it a nice warm-up for the upcoming baseball season.

The highlight for me, obviously, was the small section about Bobby Jenks. There is no moment more exciting during a White Sox game than when the White Sox have a slim lead heading into the 9th and the big man trots out from the bullpen to close it out. A vast majority of the time it ends with an exuberant “Gas…he gone!” from Hawk Harrelson and the chalking up of another “White Sox winner” by Ed Farmer. And if Bobby Jenks had the maturity and professionalism when we was with the Angles that he ostensibly does now, White Sox fans may never have had the opportunity to call him our own; and perhaps…perhaps…we might not have a World Series title either.

Like a lot of 19-year old kids, Bobby Jenks was young and brash and immature, and he was more caught up in having fun and being self-destructive than taking life and his career seriously. As I mentioned earlier, we all heard the rumors and whispers about such issues when the White Sox acquired Bobby Jenks. Luckily, Jenks got serious at the right time and used his release from the Angels as a wake-up call to turn his life and baseball career around.

The result has been fortuitous for Jenks, the White Sox organization, and White Sox fans everywhere. The White Sox have had ups and downs since winning the World Series in 2005, and always seem to have one or two significant holes heading into every season; but one of the few spots we’ve been able to count on for over 3 years and counting is the back end of the bullpen with Bobby Jenks.

The big man is already well on his way to carving out a legendary career on the South Side. For me, the details provided in this week’s SI only served to make the legend of Bobby Jenks more unexpected, compelling, and well-rounded. And it has gotten me more stoked for the 2009 baseball season.

There are less than four days until pitchers and catchers report, and less than two months until Opening Day — a day that will hopefully conclude with Bobby Jenks notching career save 118 in the first win of another playoff season for the Good Guys.

Griffey’s short stint didn’t leave a lot of memories at the plate but neither did the team as a whole (besides what it took to even make it to the playoffs in the first place). I will always remember that we had him during the 2008 playoff push, and his incredible home plate gun-down in the Minnesota play-in game that helped preserve our 1-0 victory. That was an awesome game. I love Junior Griffey and I wish the first ballot hall of Famer the best.

Losing in the first round of the playoffs to the Tampa Bay Rays 3-1 wasn’t a major disappointment considering the White Sox ended their season with tough injuries that sidelined Team MVP and Almost AL MVP Carlos Quentin. as well as the playoff perfectionist Jose Contreras. We assuredly could have used Jose Contreras down the stretch when our 4 man rotation was limited to 3 days rest the final weeks of the season.

Word is Contreras’ ruptured 36 year-old achilles tendon will keep him out until the 2009 All-Star break, in which case he would finish the season coming out of the bullpen. That is only early speculation at this point but it is known that Contreras is already working hard to come back as early and healthy as possible.

There is now the starting position opening in CF for the Southside Good Guys and there are a lot of options (in no particular order):

1. Brian Anderson – Brian showed a lot of potential off the bench last year (finally) and was a superb late inning defensive replacement. But the White Sox probably want to find that everyday guy that could possibly be a lead off man in the order. Which Brian is not. I expect the same role out of Brian next year but who knows until after spring training which I believe will be the big question mark entering the 2009 regular season.

2. Nick Swisher – We all know and love Swisher’s presence on the field and in the locker room. Nick had some great power last year but struggled in the batting average department reducing his role to a 7-8-9 guy. He also seemed to be a liability covering ground in CF and his arm is not anything to brag about. Swisher Sweet can take this spot with a more efficient bat but he still won’t be a prototypical lead off guy.

3. Jerry Owens – The young speedster and lead off hitter hit hard times in spring training with an injury and couldn’t find a spot on the major league roster until the 40 man call ups. Owens has a lot of upside and has incredible base stealing abilities being really fast and having a high success ratio, 35 for 44 in his short career. With Orlando Cabrera most likely taking a long term deal somewhere else this could be the opening for Jerry to start in CF and be the more efficient lead off hitter for Kenny and Ozzie.

4. Dewayne Wise – Wise was pretty phenomenal late last season and some would argue that this is his job to lose. The career minor leaguer got his shot late 2008 and took full advantage especially in September and the playoffs.  He may be good trade bait this offseason because I could see the southpaw giving a NL team some much needed experience in a platoon.

5. Bobby Jenks – Hey can’t we double switch this guy in the ninth inning during save opportunities? And I really wanna see the fat boy slide around on his belly in the outfield before I die. I am pretty sure Jenks would throw out EVERY tag up fly ball runner as long as it was hit right to him. The offseason is for dreaming right?

In all seriousness the solution in CF is again within the organization. The four options now are solid and dependent on spring training performance and the direction Ozzie wants his batting order to progress in. Free agency will be used to primarily to fill needs in the bullpen, a replacement for Orlando Cabrera, and even perhaps Joe Crede’s replacement if the health of his back is still an issue. GO GOOD GUYS!

(Stay up to the date with all the latest Chicago White Sox news and note with our Chicago White Sox news page.)

[tags]chicago white sox, ken griffey jr., mlb[/tags]

Game 162 (+1)

Well, it came down to this. Twins vs. White Sox for the AL Central Division championship and a trip to Disneyland.

The air surrounding 35th and Shields was just like that of a World Series game – people milling about bars outside, traffic backups, people trying to make a quick buck with parking, and cops. It was an announced Blackout and anything black that was moving seemed to be gravitating towards the stadium. Frequent shouts of “Go White Sox!” cut through the slightly frigid air. Getting closer and closer to U.S. Cellular Field, the streets became more like sidewalks and movement became stunted.

I had will call tickets and approached Gate 4 attempting to pick them up. A sea of black greeted me and I prepared to wait in the long lines. Salvation came in a sign stating that this was for Stubhub ticket pickup. I thought I had overheard a security guard saying will call tickets could also be picked up at Gate 5; approaching and asking him, I confirmed this. Instead of waiting for my tickets ten plus people deep, I perilously crossed 35th toward Gate 5. The three man line was like water in the desert. I quickly and easily got mine and my friend’s tickets and proceeded to head into the park.

I had heard we were getting black towels to wave around for the park that night, and they weren’t kidding. These were not White Sox towels or “Tiebreaker 2008” towels; no these were plain, simple black towels (which were kind of a let down, considering some stuff they had for the 2006 season). Upon entering the stadium, I began looking for something mentioning the tiebreaker-ness of the game; unfortunately I only managed to find a scorecard which I had to buy with a program.

My friend, after finding the nearest beer booth, found the OfficeMax sign creation station. While waiting in line, we attempted to come up with slogans to write on the board; we eventually settled on “Morneau’s a hoe.” He came up with the saying; I made sure he spelled it h-o-e and even told him to draw a garden hoe on it. Alas, the GSR working the booth came up to him and said, “No profanity.” I countered with, “But this is a garden hoe.” He quickly resolved the altercation by taking out sign away. My friend eventually came up with “John Danks You!”; I with a suggestion to bring our own sharpie to the next game.

We made our way to Section 537, Row 4, only to find (as usual) our seats were taken. We, being the resourceful duo we are, took the empty seats down the row from them. As people filed in (and we eventually strafed to our seats) a blanket of mostly black covered the stadium as if to keep it warm on a cold Chicago’s day. It appeared, by a quick view of the attendees, that about 90% complied with the “Sox Pride Blackout” mandate that was issued after the 8-2 victory against the Tigers. Exceptions included the two guys next to me and the ten or so Twins fans I saw in my section and the one to the left. My friend, seeing all the Mauer jerseys, went back to the OfficeMax booth and came back with, “Mauer’s a flower.”

The game started in the traditional way (the Sox history montage, Thunderstruck), with the exception of Gene Honda reminding everyone that this game was nationally televised on TBS and we should wave our black flags around (which was the prevailing theme of the night, whether it was actually for the Sox or the guy that chose giant lotto ball #3 and yet won all 3). Then the White Sox took the field. I hadn’t been at a game at US Cellular with this kind of emotion, tension, and excitement since Game 2 of the 2005 World Series. The air was slightly let out with the leadoff walk to Span, but became inflated again with the line-out double play and a strikeout of Joe Mauer. We kept riding that wave of excitement through the half-inning and Orlando Cabrera’s leadoff single. Then Dewayne Wise grounded out (instead of bunting) into an interesting double play and Jermaine Dye grounded out. This became the status quo for the evening, as Nick Blackburn would only give up 4 hits and 3 walks, while John Danks countered with 2 hits and 3 walks. Thus the entire season would rest one of the two hits differentiating the teams.

Each hit or walk for the White Sox was met with enthusiasm and high-five throughout the stadium; albeit more so for a hit than a walk. By the end of the fourth, the score was tied at zero; the Sox had 2 hits, the Twins, none. That would change, however, in the top of the fifth.

Mike Cuddyer, the Twins DH, lead off the inning with a double, breaking up the no-hitter. Delmon Young then flied out to Griffey in center field, deep enough to allow Cuddyer to tag up and get to third. So here we were, score tied at zero, Twins with a runner on third and less than two outs. Who would step up?

Brendan Harris swung at the first two pitches, resulting in two strikes. Could Danks be the one to step up and get the strikeout? He had been doing it all night, getting Mauer and Morneau (who usually OWN Danks), but it was not to be with Harris. After taking two balls, he hit a fly ball to center field. Griffey got under it. My initial reaction was that it was too shallow to tag up on. Cuddyer got back to third. Griffey caught it and Cuddyer took off. The Mariners Griffey would got the throw to home on the fly – heck, Cuddyer might not have ran if it was Mariners Griffey – but this was White Sox Griffey, 38 years old with an arm to match. The throw two hopped Pierzynski. On the second hop, he caught it and Cuddyer at the same time. Everyone (and I mean everyone) held their breath. Did Pierzynski hold on? What if he didn’t? He got up and showed the ball to home plate ump Tim McClelland, who signaled out. The stadium let loose like a rocket taking off, jumping, hugging, high-fiving and towel waving all over the place; only to be silenced again by Blackburn setting down the Sox in order in the bottom frame. The sixth inning saw nothing spectacular, with a walk for the Twins the only baserunner. This prompted me to say, “The longer this game goes scoreless, the more trouble we’re in.”

Danks set Minnesota down in order in the top of the 7th. Then Thome came to the plate. The at bat was a typical Thome at bat – he took two balls, looked at a strike and fouled a ball off. Then Blackburn made his only mistake.

I saw the ball leave the bat. I saw it in the air over the outfield. I saw Gomez running to the wall and stopping, looking up. I did not see, however, where the ball landed. I think Thome wanted something for his birth city to remember him by, as the ball may have landed in Peoria. Even after I got home and watched the replays, I still didn’t see exactly where the ball landed. All I know is the stadium, once again, erupted. The fireworks were barely audible over the roar of the crowd. Pandemonium ensued. There was no curtain call, as the crowd began to chant “Paul-ee, Paul-ee;” we wanted back-to-back homers. Everyone was standing and screaming. Konerko then grounded out, sending everyone back down to earth and their seats. But Griffey brought us back up with a double, followed by and intentional walk to Ramirez that elicited boos from the crowd. Gardenhire came out and removed Blackburn to the familiar chant of Steam’s “Kiss It Goodbye.” Jose Mijares came in and induced a Pierzynmki groundout and a Uribe flyout, ending the threat.

The top of the eight was upon us. Danks was still out there and Dotel and Thornton were warming up in the bullpen. He was just under 100 pitches to start the inning; he ended up with 103. A fly out, single, and double play ended the top half. The guy sitting next to me asked if I would bring Danks back out for the ninth or put Jenks in. I said I would put Jenks in; after all, if you can’t put your closer in to a one run game, you shouldn’t be in the playoffs anyways. He was fairly adamant about putting Danks back on the mound. The Sox got a single (off Joe Nathan!) in the bottom of the eighth and nothing else.

“Boom!” Everyone was on their feet, clapping and screaming as loud as they could. Jenks came running in from the bullpen, trying to hang on to the slight advantage they had. Kubel, a noted Sox-killer, pinch hit for Gomez and struck out, making the roar even louder. Span grounded out. The whole stadium was a vacuum of black noise and swirling towels. If Casilla, the next hitter, got on base, Mauer and Morneau were next. In a one run game, that would be disastrous. The crowd didn’t have to wait long. Casilla swung at the first pitch. A short, looping fly ball was hit to right-center field. Like so many balls that were hit by the Twins at the Metrodome last week against the Sox, this one looked destined to fall.

Except it didn’t.

Brian Anderson, a defensive replacement for Griffey, dove and made a spectacular catch. As soon as he hit the ground the entire place shook. Jumping, beer spilling, cameras going off (and being dropped), hugging, disbelief, elation – every positive and jubilant emotion to be had was on display at The Cell. It was like one giant, black-coated hug. The players mobbed each other on the field. Hats and shirts were distributed. Danks, Thome, and Pierzynski were all being sought for interviews before heading to the locker room. The jumbotron was showing the scene inside the clubhouse, taped up and ready to be bathed in bubbly (and Miller Lite!). All the players came back out and sprayed each other; some even ran out to the warning track and sprayed the fans there. After clinching everything in 2005 on the road, it was a nice to see them celebrate properly in front of the home crowd. Thome, Swisher, and Konerko each got on the mic and thanked the fans.

After the celebration died down a bit, I headed off to the gift shop to get some AL Central champs gear. After waiting 10 minutes in line, I entered to no hats left and shirts going for $35.00 (which I passed on). Walking out and down the ramps, high-fiving and chants of “Let’s Go White Sox,” were on every level; I even heard a “Let’s Go Dodgers” chant get started. Reaching the ground floor, we headed towards the ticket windows to see if ALDS tickets were going on sale. I remembered they had a raffle for them and decided not to waste any more time standing there and left.

The streets were blocked off and fans were celebrating on 35th, in the parking lot, and in front of the 2005 World Series monument. As I walked back to catch my ride, horns were being honked like a wedding was passing through. Residents of the area had some out; their children were all waving and shouting “Go White Sox!” in their cherub-like tenor.

The further away from the ballpark we got the, the horns and random shouting decreased. Now all is left is for the Black Plague to descend upon the Tampa Bay Rays.

[tags]chicago white sox, minnesota twins, mlb, mlb playoffs[/tags]

I was there, live on the scene. Thank god he swung on the first pitch or i would have run out of video…. It was awesome!

[tags]chicago white sox, bobby jenks, baseball video, mlb, mlb playoffs[/tags]

[UPDATE: So I noticed this post had a huge spike in traffic today (due to the title) after the White Sox defeated the Minnesota Twins to capture the AL Central crown.  Well, this post was written on 9/21 predicting that the White Sox would win the AL Central.  And, of course, they did!  Follow the link for a quick recap of the game that made the White Sox AL Central champions. You can also go back to the homepage.  We'll be having lots of updates today and tomorrow.  And feel free to read on if you'd like to see what I was saying waaay on September 21st.]

Damn it feels good to write a blog again.

After a crazy-busy week at work, I finally had a few moments tonight to catch the end of the White Sox-Royals game on WGN and now add a post to Midwest Sports Fans. This is my favorite part about having a sports blog…it reminds me of the Southwest Airlines commercials: “Wanna get away for a while?” Well, I do. And it’s time to offer my fearless (and guaranteed) predictions for the end of the season:

We are closing in on the last week of the season. As I sit here tonight typing, on September 20th, 2008, the White Sox are 2 ½ games ahead of the Minnesota Piranhas. (Short aside here: if I were a Twins fan, I would write a letter to the club and request a name change…and I’d go with Ozzie’s suggestion. Right now, they are named after the nickname of two cities. How lame is that? And if you make a joke about the White Sox being named after, you know, socks I will put you in a headlock and punch your cranium repeatedly.)

Speaking of which…

And while we are strolling down memory lane…

Now back to the subject at hand… the last week of the season. How will it finish up for the White Sox? Here is how I see it playing out:

After tonight’s game, I see no way the White Sox lose tomorrow. Jermaine Dye’s 9th-inning blast was a Cubs-fans’-dong-length away from going out. Yes…it was literally an inch from being a homerun. If that goes out, the game is tied 5-5 and we win. We always win close games like that when we come back late. The pitching matchup is John Danks versus Brandon Duckworth tomorrow. The way I see it, if we lose to a guy named Duckworth, we don’t deserve to win the AL Central. But we’re the best team in the AL Central. Hence, we will win, and I don’t think it will be close. I see our offense exploding, at least 3-4 homers. I also think Minnesota will win. I know that Andy Sonnanstine killed the White Sox earlier this year with a masterful complete game, and the Twins are on the road; but, they have Francisco Liriano on the hill and I think they get it done. Sox still up 2 ½ games.

Both the Sox and the Twins are off Monday.

Then it’s the series of the year. White Sox at Twins. September 23-25.

Game 1 (according to ESPN) is Clayton Richard versus Scott Baker. Richard just pitched in relief tonight, so I don’t what that means as far as him starting next week. But he did throw the ball well against the Yankees in his last start so I am assuming he will make this one. I think the Twins take this game though. They are back at home after a tough road trip and we are not the best road team. And this is a touch matchup for a young pitcher against a fundamentally sound lineup. Sox up 1 ½ games. I hate Joe Mauer. (just thought I’d throw that in there, for the record. And not for any particular reason either. He’s good, he has sideburns, and he’s on an AL Central rival. I don’t hate him as much as I hate Girlie Sizemore, but I still hate him. Justin Morneau too.)

Game 2 is not listed on ESPN, but I am assuming it will be Javier Vazquez taking the hill. And I would think he’d be up against Glen Perkins, based on the Twins rotation from this week. I hate to say it, but my confidence in Javy is kind of low right now. And I think the Twins will have some momentum from the first game of the series and the home field advantage gets them another win. Sox up ½ game.

Game 3 is Mark Buehrle against Nick Blackburn. Mark is 10-6 with a 4.16 ERA in the Metrodome. Overall, he is 21-12 with a 3.85 ERA against the Twins. Nick Blackburn is kind of a douche bag, looks like Joe Mauer’s dorkier older brother who has an inferiority complex because his younger brother beats him at everything, and has given up 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Plus he has a 6.14 ERA lifetime against the White Sox. No way Buehrle lets us lose this game. Sox up 1 ½ games.

So we lose the series 1-2, but have a 1 ½ game lead, plus the momentum of a big win in game 3. We go home to play Cleveland while Minnesota stays in the Metrodome to face Kansas City. It looks like we would face Cliff Lee on Sunday, but miss Fausto Carmona. I see no way that we don’t win the series in our own home park…where we’ve played so well season…but it’s hard to predict a victory against Cliff Lee. He’s been lights out this year, and I think he’d be facing Vazquez. Not a good matchup for us. I say Minnesota wins their series too, but not in a sweep. And even if they do sweep the Royals, I’m not entirely convinced they beat Tampa Bay tomorrow. They are still on the road, after all. Either way, that means we’re still up at least 1 ½ games and the extra game against Detroit is not necessary.

It also means we’re AL Central champions and in the playoffs. Obviously I am hoping we do better than 1-2 against Minnesota. But realistically, with how inconsistent we’ve been on the road and how good they are at home, we can sustain a series loss if we can go up there and steal a game. I have tremendous faith in Mark Buehrle not allowing us to lose in the finale. I love Floyd and Danks…but both of those guys would scare me a bit in that spot. I know Buehrle can be erratic sometimes, but he also steps up big when we need him. That start will be one of his most important regular season starts in a White Sox uniform and when all is said and done will be one of the primary reasons why we are playing in October.

It also looks like we might get Carlos Quentin back if we make the playoffs, which would be a huge emotional lift for this team. Not to mention, his presence back in the middle of the order…even if he isn’t 100%…would be huge.

We all know that crazy things happen in the baseball playoffs. You just have to get there. I think the White Sox will get there, and if we can hit some home runs and get games to Bobby Jenks, well…how about one more trip down memory lane?

Let’s finish strong White Sox. We have a lot of new guys who have stepped up this year (Danks, Floyd, TCQ, Alexei) but I think it will be some of the stalwarts from 2005 (Buehrle, Jenks, JD, AJ, Uribe) that carry us to the finish line and to another AL Central crown. Just ask Ozzie what place we will finish in:

Since July 1st, the Chicago White Sox are basically a .500 team. Look at the numbers. After tonight’s loss to the Red Sox (which dropped us to a half game behind the Twins) we are now 17-16 since the beginning of July. This is not good. And remember earlier in the season when Ozzie Guillen was ripping the offense in the press and our pitching staff was carrying us to respectability? My, my…how the tables have turned.

I remember watching an ESPN game that I am pretty sure was against the Cubs and hearing the oracle of baseball wisdom Joe Morgan (please note the heavy sarcasm) say that our bullpen was one of the best he’d ever seen. Granted, our bullpen was dominating at the time…but the best he’d ever seen? Really Joe? Well, pretty much since that point our pitching staff’s performance, especially the bullpen, has taken a nosedive.

Consider the following statistics, from the last 30 days:

RP Matt Thornton – 5.23 ERA (but 10K/3BB)
RP Octavio Dotel – 5.19 ERA (12K/4BB)
RP Andrew Russell – 7.88 ERA
RP Nick Masset – 12.00 ERA (traded since…replaced by a guy named Ehren Wasserman who has been barely serviceable. Ehren? Even my name looks like it’s spelled normally compared to his!)

And drumroll please…

RP Boone Logan (left) – 18.78 ERA (9K/6B), 23 hits in 7.2 innings

Bobby Jenks, of course, has an ERA of 2.00 in the last month is 5-5 in save opportunities. The problem is that he only has 5 save chances in the whole month! (Yes…I realize he was hurt for part of the time, but still.)

These are not the stats of the “greatest bullpen ever” or even a playoff bullpen. We have to get this figured out. Boone Logan simply cannot be trusted right now. Thornton and Dotel actually have decent numbers other than their ERA, so I don’t feel so badly about those guys. We’ve just given up too many hits, pitched poorly with men on base, and given up a few too many homers. Once we get Linebrink back, I feel good about Thornton-Dotel-Linebrink-Jenks. But we need one or two other guys to step up.

The same is true with the starting pitching staff. Look at these hideous numbers:
Javier Vazquez – 5.33 ERA (24K/10B/28H)
Gavin Floyd – 5.47 ERA (20K/16B/31H)
John Danks – 5.65 ERA (26K/5B/36H)
Mark Beuhrle – 4.99 ERA (17K/5BB/36H)
And Clayton Richard has just been awful in place of Jose Contreras, who was awful before he got hurt.

Beuhrle hasn’t actually been that bad, he just had one awful outing, but has otherwise been lights out since a horrible start to the season. And Danks is simply giving up too many hits, but his K/BB is a positive sign moving forward.

If we are going to win the Central, however…and we are…Javier Vazquez and Gavin Floyd simply have to pitch better. I hate to say it, but I do not have faith in either guy to pitch well in a big spot right now. KVB and I discussed this way back in May when Gavin Floyd took a no hitter deep into the game against Detroit (the first time). His facial expressions and body language just do not inspire confidence in me. He always looks like he’s either scared to death or constipated, neither of which is conducive to success against major league hitting.

I will now completely and knowingly contradict myself by saying I have faith in them to pick it up and pitch well down the stretch…but I’d really like to see them start to prove me right. We don’t have much more time to wait for them to get it going.

Now contrast our awful pitching recently with our hitting, which has been outstanding:

AL MVP Carlos Quentin – .340, 10 HR, 23 RBI, batting 1.000 in the clutch
Jermaine Dye – .301, 6 HR, 17 RBI
Alexei Ramirez – .323, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 4 SB
Orlando Cabrera – .289, .351 OBP, 4 SB
Even Jim Thome – .313, 7 HR, 21 RBI

And guys like Dirty 30, Paulie, A.J., and Juan Uribe have all delivered in clutch situations. We’re hitting fine. And I have a feeling that Paulie is about to get hot, which will only help things. Griffey? Who knows. I think his mere presence means more than anything, and having a lefthanded power bat gives Ozzie some flexibility with the lineup.

The whole point of this post is that while the Sox are ½ game out in the Central, and one back in the loss column for the Wild Card, we have not played like a playoff team recently. But there is another World Champion inside this clubhouse. We’ve proven that we can pitch well. And we’ve proven that we can hit. We just need to put it together. I have a tremendous amount of faith in Ozzie to push the right buttons down the stretch and not only get us into the playoffs, but to have us ready to do something once we get there.

AL MVP Carlos Quentin, Mark Buerhle, and Bobby Jenks will lead this team. J.D., John Danks, and the other veterans on offense will provide consistent support. The keys down the stretch are going to be Javier Vazquez, Gavin Floyd, Matt Thornton, and Octavio Dotel. If those four pitch at or near their capabilities, we will simply outlast the Twins and have a great shot to go deep into October. If those guys continue to pitch at the subpar level they have been at this month, we’re going to be in trouble.

My picks to click for the rest of the season? Javier Vazquez, Gavin Floyd, Matt Thornton, and Octavio Dotel. The good guys are going deep into October this season, and this little cold spell hasn’t shaken my faith.

Don’t stop believing…

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Photo Credits:

Gavin Floyd picture courtesy of The Bleacher Report.

Joe Morgan picture courtesy of this site.

Boone Logan picture courtesy of Foul Balls.

Carlos Quentin picture courtesy of FoxSports.