Pace and Points Per Possession (PPP)

The purpose behind looking at scoring on a per-possession basis is that it normalizes teams who play at a variety of different tempos.

For instance, VMI ranks third in the nation at 83.1 points per game, but they play at one of the fastest paces in the country and don’t shoot the ball very well.  And just because Wisconsin is 252^nd overall in scoring doesn’t mean they are inherently terrible offensively.  Ultimately it boils down to a quantity versus quality proposition.

The first piece of the calculation is to arrive at the number of possessions in the game, which is defined as:

Field Goal Attempts – Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + 0.475 * Free Throw Attempts

A more detailed description of why this makes sense can be found at the old Big Ten Wonk site.

Once you have that, you can easily divide the points scored in the game by that number of possessions.  For a point of reference, here are some numbers through Friday’s games:

• National Average: 68.5 possessions per game
• Fastest Pace: Houston Baptist at 75.4 possessions per game
• Slowest Pace: Wisconsin at 58.9 possessions per game
• Average Points Per Possession: 1.01 ppp
• Most Efficient Offense: Missouri – 1.19 ppp
• Least Efficient Offense: Grambling – 0.78 ppp
• Most Efficient Defense: Ohio State – 0.84 ppp
• Least Efficient Defense: Nebraska Omaha – 1.18 ppp

The Four Factors

The other most commonly cited statistics are the “Four Factors,” which statistical pioneer Dean Oliver broke down in his book, Basketball on Paper.  In simplest terms, these are the four factors he deemed most critical to on-court success.

1. Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)

eFG% is calculated by:

(0.5 * Three-Pointers Made + Field Goals Made) / Field Goal Attempts

As you can see, the calculation is virtually the same as a standard field goal percentage, except that it gives additional credit for made three-pointers.  The calculation accounts for the fact that a made three is worth 50 percent more than a made two.  Big Ten Wonk says that eFG% “is roughly analogous to calculating a batting average using plate appearances instead of official at-bats.”

Through Thursday’s games, here are some key eFG% numbers to know:

• National Average: 49.0%
• Best on Offense: Creighton – 58.5%
• Worst on Offense: Grambling – 38.1%
• Best on Defense: Wisconsin – 39.9%
• Worst on Defense: Longwood – 57.8%

2. Turnover Rate (TO%)

The calculation for TO% is a simple one:

Turnovers / Possessions

Again, this normalizes the fact that two teams might each turn the ball over 15 times, but the impact of that is greater for a team that has just 60 possessions versus one that has 75.

Here are the numbers to know about TO% this season:

• National Average: 20.6%
• Best on Offense: Purdue – 13.8%
• Worst on Offense: Towson – 30.6%
• Best on Defense: Ohio State – 27.4%
• Worst on Defense: William & Mary – 14.8%

To put the Towson one in perspective, no one else is even over 26.4% for the year.

3. Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OReb%)

The calculation for OReb% is as follows:

Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds)

Instead of looking solely at the raw number of offensive rebounds a team gets, this reduces it to a rate by comparing to the number of missed shots.  Again, as Big Ten Wonk put it, “Rebounds are like hits—and missed shots are like at-bats.”  From an efficiency standpoint, the theory is that offensive rebounds essentially extend possessions and provide additional scoring opportunities.

Here’s a look at how OReb% has played out this year:

• National Average: 32.3%
• Best on Offense: Pittsburgh – 43.6%
• Worst on Offense: Hartford – 21.9%
• Best on Defense: Bucknell – 23.1%
• Worst on Defense: Alcorn State - 40.3%

4. Free Throw Rate (FTR)

Again, the calculation for FTR is a relatively simple one:

Free Throws Attempted / Field Goal Attempts

Ken Pomeroy says this metric “measures a player’s ability to get to the line relative to how often he attempts to score.”  In short, it’s a measure of aggressiveness.  Guys who are content to shoot jumpers and won’t attack the basket will end up with a low FTR, while others can provide increased value by making a concerted effort to get to the stripe.

Here are some key data points for FTR this season:

• National average: 36.5
• Best on Offense: New Mexico State - 55.3
• Worst on Offense: Troy – 23.6
• Best on Defense: North Carolina – 20.4
• Worst on Defense: Eastern Washington – 64.6

Some of these are pretty extreme.  For example, New Mexico State is the only team over 50.3, and for Eastern Washington, no one else is over 55.6.

So as you look forward to filling out your March Madness 2012 bracket when it comes out, efficiency numbers can provide a different point of view on many of the matchups, particularly as you’re comparing teams from a wide range of leagues with a variety of styles.  Sites like KenPom.com and Statsheet.com provide this data if you’d like to get more in depth.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

I highly recommend this one on Mark Price, not only because I can appreciate a white guy in short shorts who can shoot, but mainly because of the ironically named song “Black Gold” providing the background music. Other classics are Charles Barkley as “The Warrior”, Larry Bird and his “Small Town” roots, and, of course, Michael Jordan taking our breath away.

But once NBA fans are done reminiscing with these terrific videos, what then? I mean, yeah, Google Image searches for “kurt rambis mustache” and “brian cardinal” are entertaining, but it’s not replacing watching actual basketball games.

That is why NBA fans need to direct their basketball-starved attention one level down to the college game. And for those NBA fans who are not too distraught by the lockout to acquiesce, here is a guide for which college basketball team each should follow based on his or her NBA allegiance.

Before we begin, let it be noted that you will not see Duke listed below for a reason: I cannot in good faith advise anyone to root for Duke. They already have a large “worldwide” fan base that is loud and haughty; they don’t need anyone else. In fact, I’ll advise all NBA fans to actively root against Duke. It’s actually quite fun, and for someone who doesn’t already have a college allegiance, joining the Duke Haters Club just may be more fun than attaching yourself to any particular college team anyway.

Now onto the assignments, based far less on geography than on, well, other relevant matters. (And don’t worry Kentucky fans, the comment section awaits your ire at the end of the post.)

Eastern Conference

Chicago Bulls: Xavier Musketeers

Bulls fans can appreciate good point guard play, especially guards who can put their teams on their backs to win big games, and there are few point guards in America – if any – that are as good at doing just that as Tu Holloway. In fact, he is probably the closest thing to Derrick Rose that there is in college basketball this year (and he’s not even that close, which just goes to show you how good Rose is/was.)

Miami Heat: Kentucky Wildcats

This one is easy. In fact, it’s probably the most obvious of all.

Image source: SportsBore.com

Not only do you have the LeBron-Worldwide Wes-John Calipari connection already in place, but after last year there is now a sensibility similarity between these two fan bases. Kentucky fans would sell what is left of their souls to win a national championship by any means necessary, and that is a feeling than Miami fans can probably now relate with.

Plus, Kentucky is a lot like the Heat in how they assemble their roster every year: just get the best recruits, throw them together with some decent coaching, and see what coalesces as the season goes on in hopes that it’s a contender come March. That’s exactly what the Heat did last year with their collection of the best free agents, coming up just short of winning it all…just like Calipari always does. (But hey, at least the Heat’s appearance in the Finals won’t be voided a few years from now!)

Boston Celtics: Michigan State Spartans

Obviously you can tell that geography is far from the most important factor here.

If you’re a Celtics fan, you already have a wardrobe full of green clothes that you can wear while watching Tom Izzo and the Spartans. So that’s a positive. Also, I think the Celtics and Spartans are in similar positions:

• Boston was thought to be a title contender going into last year, but now they are seen as an aging team starting to decline. How will Danny Ainge rebuild the roster moving forward? Can he keep Boston in contention as he does it?
• Similarly, after yet another Final 4 run two years ago, the great things were expected of the Spartans last year. They faltered, and as guys like Raymar Morgan, Kalin Lucas, and, after this year, Draymond Green depart, a new cast of characters will have to step up to keep the Spartans in contention. How will Tom Izzo rebuild the roster moving forward? Can he keep the Spartans in contention as he does it?

Jared Sliminger

As Kermit might say, it’s been easy being green over the past handful of years. It could be harder moving forward.

Orlando Magic: Ohio State Buckeyes

There just aren’t as many dominant back-to-the-basket big men in basketball anymore – college or pro. The Magic have one of them in Dwight Howard, and the best college post man is clearly second year Buckeye Jared Sullinger. Granted, Sullinger is much shorter and less athletic than the high-flying Howard, so the two don’t compare in terms of defensive impact and aerial antics, but we’ll take what we can get.

And hey, with Sullinger trimming down a ton during the offseason, he no longer looks like the complete opposite of Howard in terms of physique.

Also, Orlando is often good, even reaching the Finals a few years back, but they haven’t been able to break through to win a title. Ohio State fans not old enough to remember the days of Fred Taylor and Jerry Lucas can certainly relate with that.

Update: Robert Littal, an alum of the Ohio State University, makes a good point: “We should have been the Celtics since everyone hate THE OSU…Orlando is WEAK, who cares about the Magic.”

Atlanta Hawks: Baylor Bears

The Atlanta Hawks are a talented team that had a memorable postseason moment when it seemed like they were arriving (taking the Celtics to 7 games), but they typically underachieve and can be maddeningly inconsistent from game to game while playing an undisciplined style.

The Baylor Bears are a talented team that had a memorable postseason moment where it seemed like they were arriving (making it to the Elite 8), but they typically underachieve and and can be maddeningly inconsistent from game to game while playing an undisciplined style.

Oh, and both teams have head coaches with the last name Drew.

Yep, good fit.

New York Knicks: St. John’s Red Storm

The last time the Knicks were relevant and good, Pat Riley and his slicked-back hair were roaming the sidelines. Fans of St. John’s are hoping that their new slicked-back coach Steve Lavin can make them relevant again. He started off well last year with an experienced roster, but now we’ll have to see how he does as he builds it on his own. And since Knicks fans have suffered so much lately, I don’t want to pull them too far away from Madison Square Garden.

Philadelphia 76ers: UCLA Bruins

I really struggled with this one, so I’m glad that Chris Callaway came through with a perfect fit:

“The 76ers could be UCLA. Will Smith is now a part-owner of the Sixers, and in West Philadelphia he was born in raised. And after taking a cab – with a license plate that said “Fresh” and that had dice in the mirror – all the way from Philly to California, Will was able to sit on his throne as the Prince of Bel Air for six magical years, and 15 more in syndication.“

And, as Keith Mullett pointed out, the 76ers have former Bruins Jrue Holliday and Jason Kapono. So this one really would work out great.

And, as Chris later pointed out, MSF writer Drew Lange should change his first name to Jrue. (This last point really has nothing to do with anything, but it did make me laugh.)

Indiana Pacers: Indiana/Purdue/Notre Dame/Butler

Positioned right in the middle of one of the best cities for amateur sports in America, most Pacers fans already have strong college basketball allegiances to either Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame, or Butler. They should just continue rooting for whatever college team they already like more than the Pacers. [hat tip to Jon Washburn]

Milwaukee Bucks: DePaul Blue Demons

Marquette would be the easy choice here, but let’s go with DePaul. Both were good back in the day, both have had a big tall guy lead them to a title (George Mikan, Lew Alcindor), but both have been largely irrelevant since then. Plus both play in a good sports town where no one really cares about them. [hat tip Chris Callaway]

Charlotte Bobcats: North Carolina State Wolfpack

First off, picture Sidney Lowe and his 25-55 ACC record in your mind and tell me he doesn’t seem like exactly the kind of guy Michael Jordan would hire to coach the Bobcats (in between putts on the 10th green).

Update: Of course, since Sidney Lowe no longer coaches the Wolfpack, which I had forgotten about in my haste to diss Michael Jordan’s GM skills, the joke really is on me here. Thanks to the commenter who pointed this out.

Also, while the Wolfpack was relatively competitive during Herb Sendek’s tenure (he won 9 or more conference games in four of his last five seasons there), this is a program that has reached one Sweet 16 since 1989 despite being situated in the hoops hotbed of North Carolina. Bobcats fans already know all about cheering for a Tobacco Road loser. This would be a seamless transition.

Detroit Pistons: Michigan Wolverines

Michigan State is already taken, but that’s okay. Struggling Pistons fans shouldn’t align themselves with the unranked Spartans – a program possibly on the decline – anyway; they should go with the Wolverines, a program that John Beilein seems to have on the upswing. Plus, the Pistons and Wolverines both won the title together back in 1989, so maybe they can get the Michigan Magic working together again.

New Jersey Nets: Northwestern Wildcats

Jay-Z is obviously the most famous of the Nets’ management team (with apologies to the Russian dude), so I would think that Nets fans can appreciate some good rap music. Thus, the only possible choice for Nets fans would be Northwestern, because then they’d be able to rockout with their lockout to a guy who is clearly on the way to being at Jay’s level. That’s right, Chet Haze.

Washington Wizards: Central Florida Knights

When this franchise was called the Bullets, it won a championship and four conference titles. Since it became the Wizards in 1997, it hasn’t won a damn thing, except a few fleeting moments of notoriety when Michael Jordan joined the team to play at about 25% of his former greatness. But maybe there is a way for a Jordan to make it up to Wizards fans.

Despite not being heavily recruited coming out of high school, Michael Jordan’s son Marcus has turned into a pretty good player at Central Florida. As a sophomore he averaged 15 points and led the Knights to 19 victories. Heading into his junior year, Jordan has the Knights on Andy Bottoms’ preseason watch list for mid-major teams.

One MJ never gave the Wizards the title they hoped he might, but perhaps another MJ can deliver one to Wiz fans who adopt the Knights. And with the Wizards located in the nation’s capitol, what better conference to win than Conference USA?

Toronto Raptors: Carleton University Rams

I was really at a loss for the Raptors, so I’m glad that Josh Tinley stepped up with the following suggestion: “I think Raptors fans should cheer on the Carleton University Ravens, who have won 7 of the last 9 Canadian Interuniversity Sport (CIS) National Championships. And they’re right there in Ontario.”

I honestly don’t know much about the Raptors other than that Vince Carter had some misadventures there and Chris Bosh recently left there. So Josh’s suggestion is as good as anything I can think of.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Root Against Kentucky

Last year, I’m not sure what got Cavs fans more excited: a Cavs win or a Heat loss. Maybe early in the season Cavs fans were pumped up by Cleveland victories, but once it became clear that the Cavs would end up being one of the worst NBA teams in recent memory, surely more satisfaction was taken by rooting against LeBron and the Heat. So why not apply that same thinking during the lockout?

Since LeBron and Coach Cal have their little Worldwide Wes-orchestrated love affair, and being that they are just so damn hatable anyway, Kentucky would make a perfect target for the sad, plaintive ire of Cavs fans.

Photo credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images via Esquire.com

Full disclosure: I don’t like Kentucky. In case you hadn’t noticed.

Western Conference

San Antonio Spurs: Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas is similar to the Spurs in that we take their consistent excellence under Bill Self for granted – they are almost always in the top 5 and have won the Big 12 nine out of the last ten years. They also, like San Antonio, have had some disappointing postseasons lately, but enough championships in their recent and past history to where their fans can’t get too upset.

The Spurs are so consistently good that we take them for granted. Did you even remember that they were the #1 seed in the Western Conference last year? Even with an aging nucleus they still found a way to be great in the regular season, but they just don’t seem to have the juice to make deep playoff runs anymore. This experience of playoff disappointment would allow Spurs folks to easily assimilate into the Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk crowd.

On a possibly related note, I’d love to see Greg Popovich wear Bill Self’s magic pimp shirt.

Los Angeles Lakers: North Carolina Tar Heels

After stumbling around a bit after Dean Smith left, North Carolina is back to being the nation’s glamor team under Roy Williams. Sure, they had that little blip two years ago, and Williams’ first season in Chapel Hill was one to forget, but otherwise Williams has never won fewer than 29 games and has delivered two national titles and another Final 4 appearance in less than a decade. And when Carolina is good, few other college colors start popping up nationwide like Carolina blue, as the frontrunners flock to support MJ’s alma mater.

Los Angeles Lakers fans (minus our own KVB, of course) know all about being front-runners…but very, very, very successful front-runners who have come to expect greatness, which is why any Lakers fan who turns his or her attention to college basketball will surely flock to Chapel Hill. I mean, it’s not like they can root for Kobe or Pau’s college team. Lakers fans are only satisfied by titles, and Carolina is loaded up again for another title run.

Also, it will be a nice change of pace for Lakers fans to be able to root for a coach who can actually bend his knees.

Image source: Here

Dallas Mavericks: Indiana Hoosiers

I know that I already listed Indiana among the group of Hoosier State school that Pacers fans should cheer for, but hear me out and I think you’ll agree that Mavs fans should turn their attention to their owner’s alma mater if the lockout drags on.

Not only is there the Mark Cuban connection (he got rich in part because of a desire to listen to Indiana basketball games), but if Mavs fans squint real hard (and maybe take a little LSD…) they just might be able to pretend that Cody Zeller is Dirk Nowitzki. Hell, Indiana fans already are and Zeller hasn’t even played a game yet.

And if it’s strong LSD, Mavs fans can really let their imaginations run wild and pretend that watching Jordan Hulls and Zeller together is a reunion of Nash and Nowitzki.

Besides, Mavs fans owe it to Cuban to send the positive vibes emanating throughout Dallas because of the Mavs and Rangers up to Bloomington. He delivered the city an NBA title, now Big D can do its part of get the Hoosier basketball program back on track. And since Mavs fans know a little something about cheering for a really, really crappy team and then seeing slow growth through to a title, they can give Hoosier fans some much needed perspective after the last three years.

Oklahoma City Thunder: UCONN Huskies

Thunder fans have grown accustomed to seeing a long, lanky guy drain jumpers, especially clutch ones, from all over the court. After his performance in the NCAA Tournament last year, Jeremy Lamb looks like he might be able to do the same.

Denver Nuggets: Utah Utes

First off, fans of the Nuggets would surely want to stay out in the West Coast, so if nothing else rooting for Utah gives them that. However, there is an even better reason for this one, and I guarantee you won’t see coming. (And you may just wish it hadn’t…)

Who is the most famous coach in Utah history? Rick Majerus. And what do Majerus and the word “nuggets” have in common? Well, depending on just how immature you are, and what you consider “nuggets” to be a potential euphemism for, both of the following excerpts could apply:

During a game in 1999 Majerus gathered his team around him during a timeout and zeroed in on struggling center Nate Althoff. “You’ve got none of these,” Majerus growled, and then reached over and lightly backhanded Althoff’s groin. “You’ve got no nuts!”

…

What happened next still haunts me to this day. Majerus took the towel, pulled his pants down, and quickly took a dump into the towel, which he was holding under his ass. After he was done he used part of the towel to wipe, wrapped it up, and HANDED IT BACK TO THE MANAGER, and told him to throw it away. The kid looked like a deer in giant Rick Majerus headlights. The whole room was silent. Rick just pulled his pants up and went back to the scout, never once mentioning it or acting like anything out of the ordinary had occurred.”

If you’d like the full context for these excerpts, click here.

Also, I just want it noted that this is the third to last one of these I’m doing. So I’m running out of ideas. And considering how crappy the NBA lockout is for fans, an excerpt that included the phrase “took a dump” and that included a description of a skidmarked towel seemed extremely appropriate.

Portland Trailblazers: New Mexico Lobos

Trailblazers fans are known for being among the most passionate in the NBA, which makes Rose Garden Arena one of the toughest places to play. That is why Trailblazers fans would fit right in if they took a trip to The Pit in Albuquerque, New Mexico, known for being one of the toughest and loudest places to play in America.

New Orleans Hornets: Louisville Cardinals

Hornets fans can cheer for Louisville because Peyton Siva is an exciting point guard. Sure, he’s nowhere near as good as CP3, but he’s one of the best in college basketball nonetheless. [hat tip to Jon Washburn]

For the uninitiated:

Also, people in New Orleans already are predisposed to like people named Peyton, so there’s that.

Plus, I’d add that Larry Johnson isn’t walking through that door. And Alonzo Mourning isn’t walking through that door. Nor is anyone else from the Hornets’ glory days in Charlotte. And surely Rick Pitino would be able to remind Hornets fans of this.

Memphis Grizzlies: VCU Rams

The Grizzlies were the surprise story of the 2011 NBA playoffs, an 8th seed that stunned a #1 seed and then made it all the way to a Game 7 against Oklahoma City. Similarly, VCU shocked the world by going from First Four to Final Four, knocking off #1 seeded Kansas along the way. With their underdog cheering powers combined, maybe, just maybe, Shaka Smart and the Rams can make another deep run.

Houston Rockets: Georgetown Hoyas

Georgetown would be a good fit for Rockets fans because the Hoyas just got into that massive fight with the Chinese. Here is the video if you’ve never seen it:

Houston fans might be so frustrated at Yao Ming’s injuries and unfulfilled potential that they might appreciate the audacity with which the Hoyas fought the Chinese. [hat tip to Jon Washburn]

Phoenix Suns: Wisconsin Badgers

Suns fans know all about watching a team dominated by the point guard, so watching the Jordan Taylor-led Badgers wouldn’t be so much different than watching Steve Nash lead their Suns. Except that it would. Because Wisconsin and Taylor play a much slower tempo than Nash and the Suns. I don’t think that would be such a bad thing though. It would expose Suns fans to a less frenetic style of basketball that they aren’t really used to watching.

Also, anytime they see a picture of Bo Ryan, they can pretend he’s making his scary faces in the general direction of Robert Sarver and feel a little bit better inside. And with this picture in particular, they can pretend he’s casting an evil spell on Sarver and the rest of the NBA owners.

Utah Jazz: BYU Cougars

Or they could just pay more attention to Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign.

And we’ll just move right along.

Golden State Warriors: Belmont Bruins

Golden State, like the Suns, is another NBA franchise known for having a run-and-gun style that makes watching them fun. Warriors fans also seem to have a chip on their shoulder and enjoying being the underdog the slays the dragon, a la a few years when they knocked off the #1 seeded Dallas Mavericks. Who better, then, for Warriors fans to root for than Belmont and its high-scoring, guard-led, underdog attack?

Read Andy Bottoms’ preview of the 2011-12 Bruins. The way he describes their leading scorer Ian Clark, it makes him sound like a cross between Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis. Sounds like a guy Warriors fans can get behind, and with Belmont expected to be one of this year’s top mid-majors, perhaps Warriors fans can channel their upset energy from a few years ago and help propel the Bruins to March greatness.

Los Angeles Clippers: Texas Longhorns

As MSF’s Keith Mullett said, “Clippers fans could root for Texas since both always have loaded rosters and coaches who don’t know how to manage them.” I couldn’t have put it better myself.

Sacramento Kings: Sacred Heart Pioneers

Let’s be honest here: for the last several years, about the most excitement Kings fans have been able to have is the inevitable sophomoric chuckling that ensues from seeing “SAC” scroll across score tickers. With no lockout, that means no more SAC…but not if Kings fans adopt Sacred Heart as their college basketball team of choice. Plus, Sacred Heart sucks (11-18 last year), so Kings fans can just keep on expecting loss after loss, just like if the NBA season had started on time.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Butler Bulldogs

We’ll let the Timberwolves’ fans cheer for Butler. They deserve to watch a team make the most out of their talent because of good coaching and management…as opposed to…well…KAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHNNNNNN!!!!! [hat tip to Jon Washburn]

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And now it’s your turn. Surely your perspective on this will be different mine.

What are your ideas for which college teams certain NBA fan bases should adopt during the lockout?

The comment section awaits.

Cowboys coach Mike Gundy, who is famously both a man and at least 40 years of age, decided to get jiggy with it for a few brief but spectacular moments during the team’s jubilant celebration. Luckily, the Gundy Dance was caught on camera so it can live on the Internet for eternity.

But is it the funniest example ever of a sports figure dancing? You’ve already seen the 10 best dancing GIFs ever here at MSF. Now let’s find out which of the 10 funniest examples of sports figures dancing is the funniest. (Make sure to cast your vote in the poll at the end of the post.)

First, if you haven’t seen the Gundy Dance, enjoy it in all its glory here:

Mike Gundy Gets Low

Pretty amazing right? I think even Flo Rida would be proud of Gundy’s ability to get low, even if the coach wisely decided to forgo apple bottom jeans and boots with the fur.

I mean look at that!

Gundy got low, low, low, low, low, low…

But could the dance moves that have gotten people saying “Teach Me How To Gundy” really be the funniest of all-time?

Consider the following video in which Wisconsin basketball coach Bo Ryan “cranks dat” to the tune of the immortal Soulja Boy.

Bo Ryan “Cranks Dat”

Or, rewatch one of the most infamous examples of a rhythmless athletes busting a movie, which you’ve surely seen many times before: Mark Madsen breaking it down during a Lakers title celebration.

Mark Madsen Busts a Move

In fact, SportsCenter once devoted a whole segment to sports figures dancing who had absolutely no business doing so. In this quick, minute-long compilation, you will see each of the following cutting unfortunate rugs:

• Mark Madsen…again (because why not?)
• Art Modell (Cleveland’s beloved…dancing on the Browns’ grave)
• Tom Brady (more from him in a bit)
• Robert Kraft
• Al McGuire – whose dancing is so must-see funny that it legitimately cracks Dan Patrick up

Mark Madsen, Art Modell, Tom Brady, Robert Kraft, and Al McGuire

The big problem with this video, of course, is Dan Patrick saying over and over again “White men should not dance!” And why the hell shouldn’t we Patrick? What former MSNBC anchor got fired and left you in charge? Sheesh.

As we all know, white people have just as much soul and rhythm as black folks. Well, at least some black folks. See what I mean:

Barack Obama on Ellen

Ah who am I kidding. Patrick’s right. The brothers usually have more rhythm, even the ones who don’t really have much at all.

To prove this unfortunate point, contrast Obama’s standing-still hip shake to that of one of the most successful white athletes in the world. There really is no contest.

Tom Brady Esta Bailando en Brazil

No matter how many Super Bowl rings Brady wins or how many passing records he sets, he will never live that moment down. (Not that he cares, of course.)

But to get back to Patrick’s “White men shouldn’t dance” philosophy, there are exceptions!

Let me ask you this Dan: would you say that one Richard “Digger” Phelps shouldn’t dance? Because I think, based on the video evidence below, that Digger absolutely should dance. Always. In fact, he should literally never stop dancing. Watch to agree:

Digger Phelps on Ecstasy

For more Digger fun, click here and then just start watching every video. You won’t get bored.

The great thing about Digger is that he can actually dance. He’s got some rhythm, some moves. At the very least, he gets into it without even a trace of self-consciousness. Sure, it’s still funny, but you respect him once the dancing is done. (Unfortunately, he then has to discuss basketball, which is when you respect him the least…but I digress.)

The dance floor prowess of Digger Phelps makes him the complete opposite of his ESPN colleague Lou Holtz. I’m sure you’ve seen the commercial of Holtz dancing a jig of excitement after receiving a groupon in this bizarre commercial for ESPN’s college football show:

Lou Holtz’s Bizarre Seated Jig

I almost didn’t include this one because…well…because it’s just weird. But some people might find it funny, so it needed to be included.

As an antidote for that awful commercial, let’s go to one of the greatest sports videos…ever. As cheesy as it may be, the Super Bowl Shuffle video featuring the ’85 Bears is simply sublime. It’s not their fault that literally everything produced during that decade was cheesy as hell.

But there is no escaping the goofiness of #53 Dan Rains right here as this video starts. It’s downright Bradyesque, as are many other moments in this video if you watch the whole thing.

Dan Rains’ Constipated Two-Step

The question now is which of these videos of sports figures dancing is the all-time funniest? To come to that conclusion, Little Red Dancing Zach and I will solicit your input:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

[Note: you can't vote for Obama since he was simply used to maximize the humiliation for Tom Brady and isn't really a sports figure; and the multiple appearances by Brady and Mark Madsen in this post count as just one.]

So…what hilarious examples of sports figures dancing did I leave out? Surely I left out plenty. Post links in the comment section below!

Update: I definitely forgot one great one. Wade Phillips doing the YMCA! Thanks to @StephStradley for reminding me of this one.

Not 10 minutes after I wrapped up my post on how the severe underrating of Derrick Williams as a prospect was a good reminder of how inexact a science recruiting can be, did I find the video below (h/t @thebiglead). It is a report by Bloomberg Sports that shows the annual recruiting budgets of Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Kentucky.

As the title says: mind = blown.

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In case you don’t want to watch the video, here is the basic comparison in terms of what each school spends per year on recruiting:

• Wisconsin: $57,000
• Ohio State: $153,000
• Kentucky: $434,000

Note: only state schools who have to disclose how much they spend were included. So I assume a school like Duke is not. I’d be interested to know what they spend.

I would have expected Kentucky to top the list, no question. But to spend almost $400,000 more than a perennial top 25 team from a big conference like Wisconsin? That is absolutely shocking to me.*

For the record, the Badgers spend the least on recruiting of any public university in a BCS conference. Clearly they are getting a nice bang for their buck, but perhaps they should budget just a bit more to expand their recruiting base. As inexact a science as recruiting may be, you still need the horses to go deep in March, which Wisconsin has struggled to do in relation to their consistent regular season success.

I’d love to see a complete breakdown of all team’s budgets. Have to run now, but if anyone can find it please post a link in the comment section. Also, are you as shocked by this as I am? Would love some reaction.

Update: Here is some additional context that I ran across after posting this article.

As expected, no one spends more overall on basketball than Duke, which had a whopping $13.87 million basketball budget (total, not just recruiting as above) during the 2008-09 season. Kentucky came in 5th on the overall list behind Marquette, Michigan State, and Louisville.

If you want to see the budgets for all the big conferences, click here. This table also provides what percent of its football budget is represented by the basketball budget, which is quite interesting especially when you see which schools obviously value basketball more than others (i.e. Indiana) and which schools are football focused (i.e. Auburn, Alabama).

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* – It took all my willpower, but I will refrain from making the obvious joke about how much of that budget goes to pay for SAT sit-ins, cars, “campus hosts”, and other benefits.**

** – Oops, just did. Oh well. You know were thinking it.

Team A has much more of an inside presence on both ends than Team B…so it will be a tough matchup for B.

Team A has nobody that can guard Player X on Team B…so it will be a tough matchup for A.

Many times, we line up the teams, compare individual players, maybe look at the bench and the coach, and come away with a good synopsis of what is likely to happen.

Then, there are the games like this year’s Sweet 16 matchup between Wisconsin and Butler.

Sweet 16: #4 Wisconsin v #8 Butler (Southeast Region)

• Wisconsin-Butler Date: Thursday, March 24th
• Wisconsin-Butler Tip Time: 9:57 ET
• Wisconsin-Butler Location: New Orleans
• Wisconsin-Butler Announcers: Gus Johnson, Len Elmore, and Reggie Miller with Marty Snider
• Wisconsin-Butler Spread: Wisconsin -4
• Wisconsin-Butler Over-Under: 123.5
• RazorGator: Wisconsin-Butler Sweet 16 Tickets – ($20 off on orders of $200 or more at RazorGator.com. Use code ORDR20RG.)
• Vivid Seats: Wisconsin-Butler Sweet 16 Tickets

Both of these teams are perfect examples of the classic “whole is greater than the sum of their parts” ballclub. While really trying to decide the winner of this game, it would be easy to get bogged down in the stats (below) or the individual matchups – most of which are surprisingly fantastic and which we will delve into shortly

Wisconsin-Butler Statistical Analysis

Statistical breakdown via ESPN Bracket Predictor.

Wisconsin-Butler Star Matchup Analysis

Shelvin Mack vs. Jordan Taylor

Both of these players lead their teams in similar ways. They are both kind of the “silent-assassin” type, but they each have the flair for the dramatic. If you’re reading this, you most likely saw “Mack the Knife” light up Pitt for 30 points, including 7 of 12 from distance. If you then stayed up and watched the Wisconsin-KState game, you may have been less impressed by Jordan Taylor.

Don’t be.

While he struggled from the floor (only finishing 2 of 16 from the field) and was lit up on the defensive end by Jacob Pullen, he still came up with the play of the game. In the closing seconds, Pullen came around a screen and rose for what would have been his 41st points of the game, only to be met in mid-air by Jordan Taylor and have the ball blocked as it left his hand.

For anyone that has watched the Big Ten all year, it was fitting that the Badgers’ most important player came up with the biggest play of the game, in spite of all the troubles that he had.

This Mack-Taylor matchup is about as close to being a wash as is possible. Mack is a little better shooter, Taylor is probably the better penetrator and passer. Both guys can and will make big plays in crunch time.

If forced to choose, I would lean Butler’s way because of Mack’s tournament experience…but it’s definitely not enough of a lean to make a game decision.

Matt Howard vs. Jon Leuer

Leuer by far has more pro potential. He looks smoother with the basketball in his hands, his post moves are a little more refined, and his jump shot more fluid.

But Howard, the awkward kid from Connersville, IN, just keeps getting it done.

To be honest, the most important part of this matchup may just be who stays out of foul trouble. In all likelihood, Leuer will usually be matched up against Butler center Andrew Smith, but Leuer and Howard are still the most important post player for each team. Howard has racked up at least four fouls in twelve games this year and fouled out of four of them. Leuer has only received four fouls six times and has yet to foul out.

From the eye test, Leuer blows Howard away, but the matchup will be much closer than it looks at first glance. I would give the edge to Wisconsin because of the foul trouble potential, but don’t be surprised if Howard wins the matchup if he ends up staying on the floor.

Wisconsin-Butler Difference Makers on Each Side

You could go down the list comparing starters, role players, etc. and end up frustrating yourself to no end. The reality is that in this matchup, it probably won’t come down to individual players.

Really, in order to pick this game, you have to trust your own basketball experience.

This may be a complete cop-out (especially from an article that is supposed to be picking the winner), but let’s just look at this game from both sides: The Butler Way, and the Wisconsin Way.

Butler has three distinct advantages going into this game that give them an edge in the matchup.

3 Reasons Butler Will Win

1.  Ronald Nored

Maybe you haven’t been watching Butler all year, but if you have, you know that he’s the real leader of their team. Not only that, he might be the best all-around defender in the nation.

A quick look at his stat line tells you almost nothing about him besides the fact that he can’t shoot (which really…he CAN’T shoot). 5.5 points, 2.6 assists, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.3 steals. Not much to look at.

But just ask Ashton Gibbs, a guy averaging 17 points a game in the VAUNTED BIG EAST about Nored’s defense. Gibbs was only able to even attempt 7 shots as he finished the game with 11 points…2 in the second half. Nored truly is a coach’s dream. He gets lower than anyone I have ever seen on defense, and his strides are so small and quick that his man never gets a chance to set up his move.

Nored will be the key to the Mack-Taylor matchup, because while Taylor will most likely have to wear himself out guarding Mack (like he did against Pullen with little success), Nored will make Taylor work just as hard on the offensive end. If Wisconsin needs Taylor to play another full 40 minutes, this will be a huge edge for Butler.

2.  Overall Defense

There really is no way to adequately put Butler’s defense into print. Let’s just say this: last March, when Butler made their run, I taped every single one of their games and watched them over and over for one reason – their defensive rotation. It really is a work of art.

This team plays man-to-man defense against better athletes every game and still routinely holds its opponents under 60. No metric can really effectively measure it – Once Butler got all of their players back from injury this year, the same smothering defense returned – just like no metric could predict that they would outrebound the best rebounding team in the country while their two best big men were in trouble the entire second half.

If you have been watching the games, you have seen them hold better athletes to well-below their normal scoring output. Against Wisconsin, they will actually be playing against athletes that are their relative equal. I shudder to think of what they could do to a team that only scored 33 points a week and a half ago.

3.  Brad Stevens

This weekend, Rick Pitino was on TBS with the panel trying not to punch Charles Barkley for making fun of “The Itty Bitty East.” When he finally got the chance to speak, Pitino said the following:

“If Brad Stevens is the future of coaching in college basketball, the sport is in a good place.”

Well said Coach. I couldn’t put it any better.

On the other hand, Wisconsin owns a few advantages of their own in this matchup.

3 Reasons Wisconsin Will Win

1.  Mike Bruesewitz

Wisconsin has a super sub of their own, and he provides a number of emotional intangibles. Everybody loves it when the lanky red-head hits a three. He’s almost like the revolutionary Matt Bonner (besides the fact that he plays nothing like Matt Bonner).

To be honest, Bruesewitz is the one player on the floor that Butler kind of has a hard time matching up against. At 6 foot 6 with long arms, he will be a tough matchup for Mack, Vanzant, Hahn, or anyone else that Butler has on the floor. Past that, if he gets just one jumper to fall, his team will ride the momentum as far as it can.

If I was Butler, I would be very worried about the big red-head. If he gets going, they could be in for a long night.

2.  Overall Offense

I know I haven’t thrown a lot of stats at you, but here is one that is just unbelievable: the Badgers are SECOND in the entire nation in points per possession and FIRST in turnover %. It’s quite rare for one team to rank in the top 30 of two separate offensive categories…and they rank in the top two of arguably the two most important offensive categories.

A lot of people hate Bo Ryan. And I admit, his teams often play a style of basketball that is borderline unwatchable (especially to an NBA fan like myself). But guess what? His teams win games. Lots of them. Because they just execute on offense.

You will not see any ridiculous pull-up 20-footers with 23 seconds left on the shot clock while his team holds an 8 point lead.

(Yeah, I’m talking to you, Jimmer. You are awesome…but unbelievably dumb and borderline selfish at times. Maybe it’s the Honor Code…maybe it’s your way of rebelling…whatever it is, it’s going to kill your team. Write it down).

If Wisconsin gets a 5 or 6 point lead at any point in the second half, be prepared for them to take the air out of the ball…and frustrate Butler to no end.

3.  Bo Ryan

If everything in the above section didn’t convince you that he’s an elite coach, just try these stats on for size:

• Ryan is one of only 17 active division one coaches with 500 victories and his winning percentage in that span is second only to Roy Williams.
• Ryan’s winning percentage, .711 (101-41) in Big Ten games is the best of any Big Ten coach in history, surpassing both Bob Knight (353-151, .700) and Tom Izzo’s (168-72, .700) percentage.
• This season, Ryan tied legendary Indiana coach Branch McCracken as the second-fastest coach in conference history to record 100 Big Ten wins, accomplishing this milestone in 140 games. Only Indiana coach Bob Knight reached that plateau sooner (131 games).
• He is 11-8 in the NCAA Tournament and has never missed the tourney while at Wisconsin.

All of that to say, when we talk about the best coaches in college basketball, old Bo often gets unfairly left out.

Wisconsin-Butler Prediction

So who wins the game?

Again, this matchup comes back to you. I gave you three reasons for each team to feel confident, but you will have to decide for yourself. Maybe you like the big red head. Or maybe you like Ronald Nored more. You have to base the decision on what YOU know and believe about basketball.

Me? It’s close, but not that close.

I remember watching this Wisconsin team last year in the tournament. As soon as they got down, they faded into obscurity. That doesn’t happen to this Butler team. That’s what most impressed me Saturday against Pitt. As soon as Pitt reclaimed the lead in the second half, everyone (especially the announcers) assumed that they would cruise to victory. But this Butler team is just too tough. Mack will make a play. Howard will make a play. Vanzant will make a play. Nored will make a play. And when it’s none of them, Andrew Smith is laying the ball in softly with 2 seconds left.

Expect more of the same on Thursday.

Vegas expects it to be close, and it will be, but free throws at the end will give the edge to the Bulldogs.

• Wisconsin-Butler Prediction: Butler 62, Wisconsin 53.
• Wisconsin-Butler Spread Pick: Butler +4
• Wisconsin-Butler Over-Under Pick: Under

Bo Ryan (real name William Francis Ryan) and Frank Martin are both very, very good basketball coaches. They are not on the elite level of a Mike Krzyzewski or a Tom Izzo, but they are on that next level of coaches whose teams are virtual locks for 20 wins and an NCAA Tournament. What separates Martin and Ryan though, and makes them among the most entertaining coaches to watch, is their ridiculously expressive faces – especially when the expression is one of anger.

Earlier this morning I caught up with Martin and Ryan to discuss their impending matchup tomorrow. Despite their reputations, I did not expect things to so quickly devolve. I chronicled the interaction below in today’s photo story.

If for some reason the image is not loading properly, click here to view in new window.

Note: I did not create the pictures of Ryan and Martin with fire. Incredibly, those were just floating around out there on the Interwebs. I love the Interwebs.

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After Wednesday, the Boilers will go as far as seniors E’Twaun Moore and JaJaun Johnson can take them in the Big 10 and NCAA Tournaments, but will then have to fill those gargantuan shoes next season. Indiana, on the other hand, loses only defensive specialist Jeremiah Rivers while adding McDonald’s All-American Cody Zeller to a lineup that will be more experienced and more talented than any IU team since Eric Gordon was wearing the Cream & Crimson. And with Tom Crean already lining up commitments from top in-state recruit after top in-state recruit for the 2012, 2013, and 2014 classes, the balance of power in the Basketball State seems to be shifting back towards Bloomington.

Crean and Purdue head coach Matt Painter recently discussed the relative states of their programs, and as expected MSF was there to capture the entire conversation. It is presented below, verbatim, in photo story format.

If the image above does not load properly, click here to view in a new window.

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Just four months ago that backdrop worked pretty well for Bret Bielema’s football squad, which defeated the Buckeyes and eventually won a share of the Big Ten crown, earning a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Could Bo Ryan’s bunch end up following in the recent footsteps of UW football and the Green Bay Packers to spoil the Wisconsin sporting faithful even more?

While the Super Bowl buildup was just beginning last Sunday, the Badgers served notice as a force to be reckoned with come March, with a nationally televised 82-56 beatdown of Michigan State.

That the Spartans had been slumping and are in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament seemed of little matter; any time a team manages to completely embarrass a Tom Izzo coached team, it raises eyebrows.

Yes, Bo Ryan is a pretty darn good coach – who may now finally admit on camera that Ohio State is indeed on the schedule after surviving an ugly trap game at Iowa Wednesday night.

I’m still wondering how it took 15 years for a D-1 program to finally pry the Paulie Walnuts double out of the Southwestern Wisconsin outback known as UW-Platteville — where Ryan was 353-76 with four Division 3 Championships – and two years after that for Wisconsin to finally come to their senses and hire him; and only after the school failed to land Rick Majerus. Coach Rick can now be found near the bottom of the Atlantic 10 conference with a current 8-15 record at Saint Louis.

Often Bo-Ball is not pretty, as evidenced Wednesday by the Badgers failing to hit the broadside of a frigid Iowa barn (6-33 from the field in the first half), before waking just in time to defeat the Hawkeyes in overtime.

But what Wisconsin teams do right are fundamentals. What would you expect from a team led by a man who has written three books, one titled ‘The Swing Offense’ and another ‘Passing and Catching – The Lost Art’? This is a program that looks at the jab step as a lethal offensive weapon. Ryan has managed to win, and win big, in 12 years in Madison without elite athletic talent —  the only notable exception currently in the NBA being Devin Harris.

But basketball is not a sport where the winner is determined by judges or style points. It is judged simply by scoring more than the opposition, and Ryan’s resume in Madison speaks volumes…

• Two outright conference regular season titles (and a share of a third)

• Two Big Ten Tournament Championships

• Three trips to the Sweet 16, and an Elite Eight appearance. Predecessor Dick Bennett helped lay some of that groundwork with an unexpected trip to the Final Four in 2000.

• A 149-11 record at home, including an incredible 75-6 mark in conference play.

• The 2010-11 Badgers are on pace to have one of the highest team free throw percentages in history. Currently Wisconsin is shooting an astounding 82.9% from the stripe (none of the other 300+ D1 teams is above 79.5%.) Not surprisingly, the team does not go to the line much, with the sixth fewest attempts of all D1 teams.

Bo Ryan no doubt will lead the Badgers to a tenth consecutive NCAA appearance, which will be 12 straight years for Wisconsin dating to the Dick Bennett days.

The younger generation should be reminded that there was an era when Wisconsin was a Big Ten bottom-feeder in basketball. And a very long one at that.

From 1948 through 1993 the program did not get one NCAA post-season invite. Where Indiana has been residing in the Big Ten standings while rebuilding the past couple years is where the Badgers literally spent decades, usually battling Northwestern for ninth place. Growing up, the winning seasons and national rankings and post-season tournament runs were always reserved for Al McGuire and Marquette 90 minutes to the east – or for UW hockey which was long considered the #2 sport on campus, and even today can be considered #2A.

Stu Jackson helped to finally change the culture of Badgers basketball in the mid-1990s, and the turnaround was enhanced by the arrival of Dick Bennett, and finally Ryan, as well as finally moving out of the out-dated UW Fieldhouse to the Kohl Center.

We will find out much more about the current Wisconsin team in the next few days, as following the game with the Buckeyes the Badgers travel to take on #12 Purdue. The Big Ten tournament will also be a good barometer to where this team may truly be headed. Although there are no easy touches in the Big Ten, a deep run be needed for the Badgers to get a top NCAA seed with only three ranked teams currently in the conference.

What is known is come Big Dance time, the Badgers will as usual, be labeled as the team that no one wants to face. That is because winning ugly is not fashionable, except in Madison.

The same is true for coaches, who will endorse everything from shoes to camps to automotive parts, but who I’ve never seen be associated in any way with an alcoholic beverage (save, of course, for that maverick John Calipari and his special edition Maker’s Mark bottle).

Today, however, I stumbled upon an advertising remnant from the past that appears to show Wisconsin basketball coach Bo Ryan enjoying a premium beer at a tasty price…otherwise knows as the High Life.

Take a look.

Here is Bo Ryan:

Image source: Wisconsin.Scout.com

And here is a vintage Miller High Life ad that I found this morning:

Image source: Picchore.com

See the old man in the Wisconsin sweater? Could it be? Is it really him?

Let’s take a closer look:

It sure looks like America’s most photogenic basketball coach Bo Ryan, especially upon closer inspection.

And, though I can’t be certain, it looks like Ryan is doing the Soulja Boy dance in the High Life ad. For comparison’s sake, I present this video:

So yes, it looks like Bo Ryan does, in fact, enjoy the High Life. And hey, why not? Ryan makes $1.25 million per year. Considering his sterling 217-82 record in Madison, I’d say that qualifies as for “premium coach at a tasty price” status.

When reached for comment about my discover, Ryan was speechless. I photographed his reaction:

Image source: CowboysPrideNews.net

Then I made the mistake of telling Ryan that I was going to post this on MSF and reveal to the world his long-hidden secret. He didn’t like that too much and responding by casting a spell of death upon me and Midwest Sports Fans.

Luckily you for you, I photographed that too:

Image source: AP Photo/Brian Kersey via Forbes.com

But before the spell was complete I told him that this post probably wouldn’t be seen by that many people because a) it’s on MSF so 3/4 of our pageviews are just me hitting refresh on my own computer; and b) it’s not even close to basketball season yet so no one is going to care.

He seemed to like that, breathing fire of joy this time:

Image source: AP Photo/Brian Kersey

And, I’m spent. Thank you for indulging me in this quick college basketball interlude still some two and a half months before practice even begins.

I don’t have many rules here at MSF, but one of them is definitely that any time I can find an excuse to post funny pictures of Bo Ryan, I take it.

I know everyone is jazzed about football starting soon, and I am too, but for a kid from Bloomington nothing surpasses college basketball. I’m already counting down the days…quote obviously, since I’m seeing Big Ten coaches in vintage beer ads.

Now if Tom Crean and the Hoosiers can just get back to .500. Then maybe this image from 2008 will finally prove prophetic…

The conference has been much maligned in recent years, yet has a tremendous opportunity to assert itself with a strong first round performance. All the Big Ten needs to do is the exact opposite of what the Big East did yesterday.

The mighty Big East, renowned as the best conference in the nation, saw purported powerhouse Georgetown, along with Notre Dame and Marquette, go down in first round Thursday action. The conference’s lone winner, Villanova, needed some friendly officiating to escape being only the fifth #2 seed in history to lose in the first round.

The Big East still has teams like Syracuse and Pitt to play today, but a strong showing by the Big Ten’s Big Five today would obviously help the conference look much better in comparison.

Let’s quickly break down the schedule, assess what Big Ten fans should expect their conference today, and analyze why this is yet another day for Indiana fans to pull their hair out and lament what was…and what could have been.

#11 Minnesota v #6 Xavier

• Xavier-Minnesota Tip Time: 12:25 PM ET
• Xavier-Minnesota Location: Milwaukee, WI
• Xavier-Minnesota Announcers: Ian Eagle and Jim Spanarkel

This is a winnable game for the Golden Gophers, and they should have a tremendous amount of confidence coming off of their strong run in the Big Ten Tournament, plus the fact that both #11 seeds that played yesterday beat their 6th seeded opponents.

The Gophers should have the edge down low, where Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson give Minnesota a pair of twin towers that can rotate, stay fresh, and mitigate foul issues. Where Minnesota will need to really excel is in the backcourt. Xavier has guys in Terrell Holloway and Jordan Crawford who are very good all around players and will need to be contained.

Tubby Smith is an experienced tournament coach and I think he’ll have Minnesota ready to go. They just may not be talented or consistent enough to pull off the W.

My Minnesota-Xavier prediction: Xavier wins, but Minnesota gives them a rough go of it.

#4 Purdue v #13 Siena

• Siena-Purdue Tip Time: 2:30 PM ET
• Siena-Purdue Location: Spokane, WA
• Siena-Purdue Announcers: Tim Brando and Mike Gminski

This is one of the more enigmatic games of the day. Amazingly, I do not think many people would consider it an upset if 13th seeded Siena beat the Boilermakers. Siena has been a trendy upset pick all week as people cannot shake the Boilermakers’ awful showing in the Big Tournament out of their heads.

I say shake it out because I think we will see a much better team today. While Purdue is no longer a Final Four threat without Robbie Hummel, this is still a team that has many of the fundamentals for tournament success in place: experienced guards, a big man who controls the paint, a defensive-oriented approach, the ability hit open shots, previous tournament success, etc.

Yes, Siena has won games in the last two tournaments, and yes it could be argued that they are seeded too low and Purdue is seeded too high. Still, despite my Hoosier devotion, I have a lot of faith in Matt Painter as a coach and I have seen too many gritty performances from this Purdue team to count them out this easily.

My Purdue-Siena prediction: Led by E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, Purdue survives and advances.

#4 Wisconsin v #13 Wofford

• Wofford-Wisconsin Tip Time: 2:50 PM ET
• Wofford-Wisconsin Location: Jacksonville, FL
• Wofford-Wisconsin Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg

I don’t know a whole lot about Wofford, but I do know a lot about Bo Ryan; and if you don’t know much about Ryan, just know that he is perhaps the most underrated basketball coach in America.

Also know this, before you start thinking that this will be another 13 over 4 upset: Ryan has taken Wisconsin to the tournament eight straight years. Only once (2006) has he failed to make it out of the first round.

While the Badgers play a plodding, slow-tempo style that can allow teams to hang around if they make shots, the Badgers also do not beat themselves and, as usual, have very good guards and tough, physical inside presences.

My Wisconsin-Wofford prediction: Pick against Bo Ryan in the first round at your peril; I won’t do. Wisconsin wins with relative ease.

#5 Michigan State v #12 New Mexico State

• New Mexico State-Michigan State Tip Time: 7:20 PM ET
• New Mexico State-Michigan State Location: Spokane, WA
• New Mexico State-Michigan State Announcers: Tim Brando and Mike Gminski

A lot of people who have watched Michigan State stumble after an undefeated start to the conference season are very interested to see how they play today.

Tom Izzo is as consistently good a tournament coach as there is in America, and this year’s Spartan team features players like Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, Draymond Green, and others who were big parts of last year’s run to the NCAA title game. Unfortunately for Sparty, this year’s team has also been wrought with internal issues, chemistry concerns, and the recent suspension of sharp-shooting guard Chris Allen.

I would not be surprised to see Michigan State win by 20, nor would I be surprised to see New Mexico State pick them off in another 12-5 upset. This game is truly like a box of chocolates…because, where Michigan State is concerned, we have no idea what we’re going to get.

My Michigan State-New Mexico State prediction: I have too much faith in Tom Izzo not to pick the Spartans here. It won’t be pretty, but they’ll win.

#2 Ohio State v #15 UC Santa Barbara

• UC Santa Barbara-Ohio State Tip Time: 9:35 PM ET
• UC Santa Barbara-Ohio State Location: Milwaukee, WI
• UC Santa Barbara-Ohio State Announcers: Ian Eagle and Jim Spanarkel

Ohio State won the Big Ten regular season, won the tournament, has one of the top two finalists for the Wooden Award, and a strong case could have been made that the Buckeyes deserved a #1 seed. So this should be a cake walk, right?

Yes, but…

What if Dallas Lauderdale gets in foul trouble? Ohio State is not a deep team and he is their main source of size. And what if guys like Jom Diebler don’t shoot well? UCSB would then be able to pay even more attention to Evan Turner.

These are legit question that Ohio State will have to face as the tournament progresses, but not today. When you have a player as dynamic as Turner, and surround him with diverse players who understand their roles, you have a damn good team and a good chance of advancing deep in the tournament.

My Ohio State-UC Santa Barbara prediction: The Buckeyes have some fatal flaws that will prevent them from winning it all, but they’ll dominate today.

Final Thoughts

If all of these predictions come to pass, the Big Ten will end up 4-1 in the first round and 80% of their tournament entrants into the Round of 32. All things considered, that would be a great first day for the conference. If Minnesota can somehow sneak past Xavier, and the chalk dictates the other matchups, it is not inconceivable that the Big Ten could have a 5-0 day.

Although, even if that happens, the conference cannot really be considered a undefeated winner. The reason, I am sad to say, is that Indiana fans like myself will have to spend another day being reminded of the collapse of our once proud program.

Did you see Ben Allen playing well for Saint Mary’s yesterday? He was once a Hoosier.

Did you catch that Ohio upset over Georgetown? You know little Armon Bassett, the guy with ice water in his veins knocking down shot after shot? He was once doing that in Bloomington.

The backcourt that powered Xavier to a 6th seed? Jordan Crawford was Armon Bassett’s teammate and Terrell Holloway was headed to IU before Kelvin Sampson got the boot.

The versatile inside-outside forward that complements Da’Sean Butler for West Virginia? Yeah, Devin Ebans was supposed to join Holloway at IU.

How do you think IU would have done this year with a lineup that looked like this:

• PG Terrell Holloway
• SG Armon Bassett
• SF Jordan Crawford
• PG Devin Ebanks
• C Ben Allen

Assuming, for the sake of discussion, that Maurice Creek and Christian Watford still chose IU, that would have created a pretty strong 7-man rotation. And if Tom Pritchard could have come off the bench in more of a reserve role, he would probably be a much more confident player. And…

Oh, to hell with it. The truth is that Bassett and Crawford were, by most accounts, both knuckleheads who needed to be jettisoned for IU to return to its more traditional program culture of, you know, actually going to class and not being a screw off. Holloway and Ebanks rightfully jumped ship when the coach that recruited them was fired ignominiously.

And while we have had to suffer through two rough seasons, Tom Crean is rebuilding the program the way it should be rebuilt: with hard working, high character guys who appreciate and understand what it means to be an Indiana basketball player. Bassett and Crawford never really understood this, which is why I wish them both well at their new schools. It’s not their fault that they never really should have been in Bloomington in the first place…at least not playing for a coach who demanded no accountability.

With all that said, it doesn’t mean it was 100% enjoyable seeing Bassett play so well for someone else last night. We IU fans can only hope that Jordan Hulls and Mo Creek are doing that to someone in the NCAA Tournament next year.

But this is this year, and it’s a very important day for the Big Ten. Hoosier fans everywhere should be getting behind their Big Ten brethren today because a strong showing by the conference makes IU look better by association. Anything that can help on the recruiting trail should be welcomed at this point. As they say, when the water rises, all the boats rise with it.

So go Gophers, Badgers, Buckeyes, Spartans, and…yes…even Boilers. If I can’t root for the Cream and Crimson, I can at least spread my rooting interests throughout the Big Ten family.

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* – Bo Ryan photo credit: AP Photo/Brian Kersey

* – Ralph Sampson III photo credit: AP photo via InfoForum.com

Lacking any motivation to do serious bubble or conference tournament analysis, I decided to spend a half hour with Google Images and find some of the funniest pictures of college basketball coaches that were available.

The result is what follows, a pictorial celebration of the MAD in March Madness, featuring the coaches of the current top 16 teams in America, as well as five others thrown in for good (see: hilarious) measure.

There are captions…so it’s not like I totally shirked my responsibility for analysis…(and trust me, you’ll see plenty of serious analysis here once the tourney actually starts.)

[Note: Click on the thumbnail to enlarge; click again on the enlarged picture to shrink it and choose another.]

[View with PicLens]

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Make sure you click next for the right arrow or right here for the bonus picture. It’s the best one of them all.

Now that you’re done laughing at the most successful college basketball coaches in America, get ready for March Madness 2010. As always, should be a thrilling three weeks.

Or not…if you ask Jim Calhoun.

Indiana flamed out in Round 1 with a pathetic performance against Arkansas that was indicative of their late-season collapse, Purdue bowed out in Round 2, and Michigan State and Wisconsin actually did the conference relatively proud by reaching the Sweet 16.

Still, criticism of the Big Ten came from far and wide and people wondered if the conference’s fall from grace was more permanent than just a one- or two-year struggle. Well, the Big Ten answered its critics in a big way this season, placing 7 teams in the 2009 NCAA Tournament with two in particular that many have predicted to make deep runs: Michigan State and Purdue.

The 5th seeded Boilermakers won their first round game against Northern Iowa and will face off against #4 seed Washington tomorrow. #10 seed Michigan also won yesterday, scoring a mild upset by beating #7 Clemson. #10 seed Minnesota and #5 seed Illinois both saw their seasons come to an end last night, not all that unexpectedly. The #2 seed Spartans open Tournament play tonight against Robert Morris and both #12 seed Wisconsin and #8 seed Ohio State also play their first games tonight.

I think tonight has a chance to be a very good night for the Big Ten conference.

A Big Ten sweep in tonight’s game would give the conference a 5-2 first round record, which is excellent. It would also mean that Ohio State wins a tough game against an underrated Siena squad that many people (including me in my official tournament bracket) think will win, and that Wisconsin becomes the latest #12 seed to make it out of the first round with an upset over Florida State. (For the record, I have the Badgers going to the Sweet 16.) Michigan State is heavily favored against Robert Morris, so it would be a real shocker if they did not advance.

Despite my system-based pick of Siena over Ohio State, I think a) that my system has proven to be crap, so I no longer trust it and b) the Buckeyes have a great chance to pull out a W. Here are some quick previews and predictions of tonight’s games:

#12 seed Wisconsin v #5 seed Florida State

Before I jump into my reasoning for why Wisconsin can upset Florida State, I would like to share a hilarious video with you. Many Big Ten and Wisconsin fans may have seen this already, as I believe this video is from 2007, but I saw it for the first time today. I am not sure that I can think of anything more ironic in college basketball than Bo Ryan dancing to the eternally awful song “Crank dat Soulja Boy”. I don’t even know if that’s the actual name of the song, and I don’t really care. House debris in a tornado has smashed together in more pleasant harmony than this “song.”

Either way, the video of Bo Ryan “cranking dat” (or however you say it) is pure gold:

Video: Bo Ryan Soulja Boy Dance

Now onto my reasoning for picking Wisconsin.

Bo Ryan has proven himself to be one of the most consistent tournament coaches in college basketball. When he coached at UW-Platteville, Bo Ryan’s teams made the NAIA and then NCAA D-III tournaments in each of his final 12 seasons there from 1987-88 through 1998-99. During that time, they only lost in the first round once and won four championships. While at Wisconsin, Bo Ryan and the Badgers have made the tournament for 8 straight seasons, and have only been bounced in the first round once (2006). He has led Wisconsin to two Sweet 16s and one Elite 8.

The Badgers play tough, hard-nosed defense, they do not turn the ball over, they make free throws, and they keep games within reach by imposing their plodding, deliberate style of basketball on opponents. I know that Florida State played well in the ACC Tournament and knocked off a Lawson-less North Carolina team, but the Seminoles only have one player who scores in double-digits: Toney Douglas.

Bo Ryan and the Badgers are masters at removing a team’s first option and making #2, #3, and #4 options beat them. Without a superb performance from Douglas, I don’t think Florida State can win a grind-it-out game against Wisconsin. Obviously if the game gets into the high-60s or 70s, the advantage goes to Florida State; but I think Wisconsin keeps the pace slow and low-scoring and gets one of their typical ugly but solid wins.

I am a little worried about the Badgers in round two, and fear that my apparent man-crush on Bo Ryan may have decieved me into thinking that they are a Sweet 16-caliber team, but I feel good about tonight.

Hey — the usual Red & White (or Cream and Crimson) I root for come tournament time is nowhere to be found this year. Old habits die hard. Thus, I’m getting behind Soulja Boy Bo Ryan and the Badgers. Perhaps this prediction is wishful thinking, but Florida State is by no means a juggernaut and a solid defensive performance from Wisconsin can create another 5-12 upset.

#8 seed Ohio State v #9 seed Siena

It’s an 8-9 game, so no one will be surprised no matter which way this game goes.

Siena obviously has a better record, but played in a much less competitive conference. Siena also plays a much more up-tempo, high-scoring style than Ohio State, which should create an interesting contrast in tonight’s game. The reason why I am waffling on my original prediction of Siena is that the Buckeyes will have the best player on the floor in Evan Turner (something my bracket-busting system did not take into account). Every time I see him play I get more and more impressed.

So often, the best player on the floor can tip the balance in a game between two evenly matched teams. If Evan Turner plays like the superstar we saw during Big Ten play, he may be able to give Ohio State the lift it needs to play on. This is one of the picks on my bracket that I did not “agree” with — but I had a system and I was sticking to it. (Damnit.) If I was putting money down on a game-by-game basis I would have a hard time picking against Evan Turner and the Buckeyes.

So there you have it: official fence-straddling. I have become what I despise: the Mike Golic of bloggers. Bracket says one thing, this post says another. Screw it, my bracket is already toast — I’m rooting for and predicting an Ohio State victory.

Indiana is isn’t in the tournament so I’m Big 10 all the way.

#2 seed Michigan State v #15 seed Robert Morris

There is not much to say about this game in terms of a prediction. The Spartans have been a little inconsistent this year, but I think even the “bad” Spartans could score a victory against Robert Morris. If they find a way to become the next #2 seed to infamously bow out in round one, I and many other people will be ripping up their brackets and lighting them on fire.

I’ve got the Spartans going all the way to Detroit, and I think it starts tonight with a rout.

All things considered, if the Big Ten can get out of round one with a 5-2 record it would be a smashing success for a conference that so many have disparaged over the past few years. Even 4-3 would be a good step in the right direction. It’s up to Ohio State and Wisconsin to make that happen. The Badgers have won 7 out of 10 coming into tonight and the Buckeyes have won 4 out of 5. Both of their first round games are there for the taking, and I think Big Ten Nation will be able to walk away from tonight very pleased with the results.

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• 2010 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket Breakdown
• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

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There is only one thing more fun than watching the NCAA Tournament brackets be announced live on Selection Sunday: filling them in over the next few days to arrive at your own personal Final Four and, ultimately, national champion.

We all know that the NCAA Tournament is essentially a crapshoot. Oh sure, there are historical trends that make sense to follow (#1 seeds will make the Sweet 16, for example) and a wide spectrum of personal college basketball knowledge can help you see a Cinderella before any of the Thursday games tip-off.

But, we all see it every year: we enter into a family pool, all the guys have been watching every basketball game since January and have been poring over the numbers, and then Mom decides to pick “the underdogs and the teams with the prettiest uniforms” and ends up winning the bracket.

If something like this has never happened to you during March Madness you are either lying or Joe Lunardi. And hell, Joe Lunardi is only proven to be good at picking the brackets before they are announced. I’m sure he runs into the same problems as the rest of us when trying to predict the outcome of actual tournament.

Because of the randomness of it all, I usually just eyeball my brackets and go with first impressions. Some years I pick a lot of upsets, some years I don’t. And usually I do three, four, five different brackets in an effort to diversify my picks and give myself, theoretically, a better chance of at least winning one pool.

Well now that I have this blog, and have decided it is a good idea to publish every infinitesimal and meaningless thought I have about sports, I feel like there is more at stake with my picks this year. So I decided that I wanted to do just one bracket, and to have a specific system I used for filling it out. (Plus, I took one look at this year’s bracket and realized that so many of the games seemed like toss-ups, I needed some kind of analysis I trusted to fall back on and break the ties.)

Let me be clear right off the bat: In no way do I endorse the following system as the best NCAA Tournament bracket system possible. Nor am I wholeheartedly convinced that it is even necessarily good; nor, truth be told, did it really require a whole lot of in-depth thought to come up with.

But…after devising the system and using it to go through the entire bracket, the results were as follows:

• Higher seeds, especially the top-line seeds, won most of the games. This is usually what happens, and what I expected, so I was pleased.
• One #12 seed beat a #5 seed. This always happens, so again, I was pleased.
• A darkhorse Sweet 16 team (13th seed or lower) emerged. There is often one very low seed that makes it out of the first weekend; but rarely more than one or two.
• A #2 or #3 seed lost in the first weekend. Out of 8 such teams, there is usually one or two gone before the Sweet 16. This held true in my predictions.
• The Elite 8 and Final Four is dominated by high seeds. Again, while the first few rounds of the tournament make headlines because of upsets, when the dust settles for the final three rounds, the majority of the teams are usually the teams with the best seeds.

So, I did not fudge my system in any way during the selection process, and the results were what I “hoped” to get. By this I mean that my system did not place 4 #10 seeds in the Final Four, or just give me all favorites winning. It actually matched up pretty well with typical tournament trends that we see from year to year.

Before I jump into my actual picks, here is a description of my subjective-objective system, which, if it proves successful this year, may be my new system for picking the NCAA Tournament moving forward.

StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

The JRod Subjective-Objective System for Picking the NCAA Tournament (Which Hopefully is More Successful Than Throwing Darts or my Mom’s Picks)

Why do I call it a “subjective-objective” system? Because I sat down and defined what kinds of quantifiable team stats mean the most to me when deciding what team will beat another. My choice of metrics was obviously very subjective. But once that choice was made, there was very little room for any other subjective decision-making, with one caveat — which I will get to in a bit.

Here are the metrics I used to measure each matchup on a head-to-head basis:

• Regular Season Road Record
• Tournament Seed
• Strength of Schedule
• Team FT%
• Team Turnovers per Game
• Experience of Guards

A few quick notes about the metrics:

1. I understand that these are not perfect. Road record, for instance, does not take into account a team’s record on neutral sites, which is perhaps an even more accurate reflection of how they will do on neutral sites in the NCAA Tournament. There are plenty of other problems and holes in this system. Feel free to point them out in the comments if you wish, but just know that I already know they exist.
2. Turnovers per game does not take into account assist/turnover ratios, number of possessions per game, style of play, etc. Comparing TO/game in a vacuum across teams is obviously not completely “fair” or accurate.
3. To measure the experience of the the guards, I used the information available at the CollegeHoopsNet.com team tournament capsules. For each team’s projected lineup, every guard was assigned a value of 1, 2, 3, or 4, based on their class. Freshman were a 1, Sophomores a 2, Juniors a 3, and Seniors a 4. The sum was then divided by the number of guards to get an average. Obviously the higher the better. Again, this is not perfect, but I like teams with experienced, older guards, so it works for my subjective statistical metrics.
4. For tournament seed, the better seed got the advantage. Why? Because more often than not, the better seed wins — except in the case of 8/9 matchups, where 9 seeds actually win 53% of the time. Hence, to play the averages, the 9 seed got the seed advantage in 8/9 games. But I thought this was important because the selection committee spent hours upon hours comparing these teams, and I generally trust their ability to tier the teams.
5. In the case of a tie (i.e. each team winning three categories) the team with the better seed wins the tie-breaker and moves on. Now, here’s the caveat to complete objectivity: If there is a tie between two teams whose seeds are adjacent (a #2 seed playing a #3 seed or a #1 seed, for instance) then I use my own personal gut feelings/bias to break the tie. This only happened a few times. 95% of the games were “picked” using the objective results of the system.

If anything is unclear, leave me a question in the comments and I’ll try to clear it up. Again, I am not claiming that this system was particularly well thought out or perfect. However, the relative simplicity of the stats did allow me to compile everything into a spreadsheet in about 2.5 hours, it does take into account the traits that I personally value, and the results ended up producing a bracket I would have been happy to end with if I had just run straight through it off the top of my head.

If you are interested, here is the actual bracket breakdown spreadsheet I used so you can see the actual data. You will notice that I did not list the #16 seeds. Sorry guys, but I knew nothing would make me pick a #16 over a #1. Perhaps that will burn me, but I feel fairly confident going with history on that one.

All that said, let’s break down the regions:

Midwest Region Predictions

First Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville
• #9 Siena over #8 Ohio State
• #5 Utah over #12 Arizona
• #4 Wake Forest over #13 Cleveland State
• #6 West Virginia over #11 Dayton
• #14 North Dakota St over #3 Kansas
• #7 Boston College over #10 USC
• #2 Michigan State over #15 Robert Morris

Siena and Ohio State were actually pretty evenly matched up, with Siena having a slight 3-2-1 advantage. Siena has a much better record on the road and more experienced guards, so I feel comfortable about that one. But it’s an 8/9 game so who the hell knows.

The one that will jump off the page is #14 North Dakota State over #3 Kansas. NDSU went 10-4 on the road this year, makes just under 74% of their free throws, has all senior guards, and only turns the ball over 11.3 times. Their Strength of Schedule is obviously not very good, but they played outstanding against their level of competition. Considering Kansas’ poor play very late in the season, and their relative youth, I am not afraid of this upset pick. If I had to bet money, I’d obviously put it on the Jayhawks, but now I won’t be at all shocked if they go down, much to the dismay of Bill Self.

Second Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #9 Siena
• #5 Utah over #4 Wake Forest
• #14 North Dakota State over #6 West Virginia
• #2 Michigan State over #7 Boston College

I like Utah over Wake Forest because of the experience factor, the fact that Utah turns the ball over more than two times per game less, and Utah’s ability to hit free throws at a 78.2% clip. Wake Forest clearly has the more talented team though; so again, this is a game where me being wrong would not be surprising at all.

And once again, you see my tourney darkhorse North Dakota State winning again. Considering the numbers I stated above, does this surprise you? West Virginia shoots less than 70% from the line, has relative inexperience at the guard position (a 2.5 score to NDSU’s 4) and turns the ball over slightly more.

Sweet 16 Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #5 Utah
• #2 Michigan State over #14 North Dakota State

Louisville beats Utah across the board, except for free throw shooting. The Michigan State-North Dakota State game was actually a tie by the categories. Michigan State wins in road record, seed, and strength of schedule, but falls short in FT shooting, guard experience, and TO/game. Non-adjacent favored seeds win out though, so NDSU’s Cinderalla story comes to an end.

Elite 8 Pick – Midwest Region

• #2 Michigan State over #1 Louisville

Honestly, this surprised me a little bit. When I first sat down to look at the brackets, the Spartans were a team I looked at as potentially being ripe for an early upset. But looking deeper, many of their metrics, at least with respect to my personal basketball biases, make them a tournament-ready team. Add in the extra motivation of the Final Four being in Detroit, and I can see this happening.

The Spartans win 3-2-1, with the teams tying in guard experience and Louisville besting Michigan State in seeding and TO/game. Michigan State’s other advantages were by slim margins, which is to be expected. I think this would be a great regional final that could go either way (a refrain you will probably hear repeated as we move forward), but as a Big Ten fan I would love to see Tom Izzo and the boys make it to Detroit.

West Region Predictions

First Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn
• #9 Texas A&M over #8 BYU
• #5 Purdue over #12 Northern Iowa
• #4 Washington over #13 Mississippi State
• #6 Marquette over #11 Utah State
• #3 Missouri over #14 Cornell
• #7 California over #10 Maryland
• #2 Memphis over #15 Cal State Northridge

No real surprises. BYU-Texas A&M was a 3-3 tie based on the metrics, but I chose Texas A&M because they have slightly more experienced guard play and played a slightly tougher schedule. Again, total toss-up, could go either way — but you have to pick one!

Second Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #9 Texas A&M
• #4 Washington over #5 Purdue
• #6 Marquette over #3 Missouri
• #7 California over #2 Memphis

The top part of the bracket goes according to seed. I actually thought Purdue would go a little farther when I first embarked on this analysis, but Washington just edges them out. The surprises come in the bottom half of the bracket.

Marquette defies seeding to beat Missouri, but I don’t really consider this an upset. Even without Dominic James, Marquette has vast experience in its backcourt, they don’t turn the ball over much, and they make 72% of their free throws.

Memphis losing this early surprised me a little, but I do not think they are nearly as good as they were last year. Cal actually bests Memphis in FT%, SOS, guard experience, and TO/game. I think Memphis’ inexperience and lower level of competition since January hurts them and they make an early exit. I have no qualms going with the stats and picking Cal here. (Side note: Is John Calipari screaming, crying, or yawning in that picture?)

Sweet 16 Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #4 Washington
• #6 Marquette over #7 California

UConn is very strong across the board with respect to the stats I chose, and they pretty much dominate Washington. Marquette-Cal is a relatively even matchup, but the experience and slightly better TO/game numbers give Marquette the edge.

Elite 8 Pick – West Region

• #1 UConn over #6 Marquette

An all Big East regional final in the West would be great. The problem for Marquette is that UConn is just a little bit better at a couple more categories. UConn went 10-1 on the road this year and has an all-senior backcourt that includes the great AJ Price (who I have been a big fan of ever since he dismantled Indiana last season). Plus, while this is not really taken into account statistically, having a 7’3 big man down low in Hasheem Thabeet obviously gives UConn a dimension that most teams do not have. I am comfortable sending the Huskies to the Final Four.

East Region Predictions

First Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh
• #8 Oklahoma State over #9 Tennessee
• #12 Wisconsin over #5 Florida State
• #4 Xavier over #13 Portland State
• #6 UCLA over #11 Virginia Commonwealth
• #3 Villanova over #14 American U.
• #7 Texas over #10 Minnesota
• #2 Duke over #15 Binghamton

Oklahoma State-Tennessee was a 3-3 tie. However, one of the categories Tennessee “won” was being a 9 seed over an 8 seed. Considering the fact that OSU has more experienced guards, turns the ball over less, and shoots better from the line, I like them to win. And for goodness sakes, 9 seeds only win 3% more than 8 seeds, so it’s not like the 9 over 8 advantage should determine every one of these matchups.

Wisconsin is my #12 seed that pulls the upset. The Badgers burned me in the Big Ten Tournament (I picked them to win it) and this pick scares me a little bit considering how well Florida State played in the ACC Tournament. However, Wisconsin has more experienced guards (by class anyway) and turns the ball over a staggering 5.6 times less per game. I actually look at this game as a toss-up, but I feel comfortable going with the Badgers in the upset.

Interesting note: VCU over UCLA is a trendy first round upset pick. Led by former tournament star Eric Maynor (remember VCU’s upset of Duke a couple years ago?) a lot of people, including Jay Bilas, think VCU could/will beat UCLA. However, this was the only first round game (minus the 1/16 battles, which I did not analyze) in which one team won all six categories — and it was UCLA doing the winning. I had actually anticipated picking VCU, but based on the analysis, I now feel pretty good picking the Bruins.

Which, of course, means that VCU will still probably win. Oh well. Such is March Madness.

Second Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #8 Oklahoma State
• #12 Wisconsin over #4 Xavier
• #3 Villanova over #6 UCLA
• #2 Duke over #7 Texas

Well, here I go again banking my credibility on Bo Ryan and the Badgers. Their experience, protection of the ball, FT%, and SOS all trump Xavier. This worries me a bit because Wisconsin has been so up and down this year, but they do play the kind of basketball I respect, and have made noise in the tournament before. By no means would I be shocked to see Wisconsin lose here (or in the first round for that matter), but I’m sticking with the Badgers to move onto the Sweet 16 and help restore some cred to the Big Ten.

Sweet 16 Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #12 Wisconsin
• #3 Villanova over #2 Duke

Halelujah, Pittsburgh beats Wisconsin. I was really worried that I might have devised a system that would choose this game in a way I would have a really hard time justifying. But Pitt was better on the road and has more experience in the backcourt. It ended up a 3-3 tie, with Pitt’s tremendous seed advantage tipping the scales.

The Villanova-Duke matchup was 3-3, which should go to the higher seed. However, because it’s a 2-3 matchup, I gave myself the wiggle room to be subjective in my choice. Duke is playing well, but I love ‘Nova’s backcourt and I just don’t see this Duke team as being built for a long tourney run. ‘Nova moves on for another all Big East Regional Final.

Elite 8 Pick – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #3 Villanova

As you can tell, my subjective choices of metrics obviously prove that I am a fan of the Big East’s brand of basketball. Through three regions, I have chosen five Big East schools to make the Elite 8. Villanova is far superior at the line, but Pittsburgh faced a tougher schedule and has more experience guards that turn the ball over less. Jamie Dixon and the Panthers move on to Detroit.

South Region Predictions

First Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina
• #9 Butler over #8 LSU
• #5 Illinois over #12 Western Kentucky
• #4 Gonzaga over #13 Akron
• #6 Arizona State over #11 Temple
• #3 Syracuse over #14 Stephen F. Austin
• #7 Clemson over #10 Michigan
• #2 Oklahoma over #15 Morgan State

A pretty much by-the-seed first round in the South. There are a few games I would not be surprised to see go the other way (WKU over Illinois, Michigan over Clemson, for example) but I have no issues with any of these games. Butler and LSU was close, and LSU actually has more experience and turns the ball over less, but Butler actually played a tougher schedule and was better on the road. I like rooting for the Bulldogs anyway, so I’m glad this turned out how it did.

Second Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #9 Butler
• #4 Gonzaga over #5 Illinois
• #3 Syracuse over #6 Arizona State
• #2 Oklahoma over #7 Clemson

Chalk reigns again as the top four seeds all advance. Illinois versus Gonzaga was very close, but I definitely would have picked Gonzaga in this one without the stats, so I feel good that it turned out this way — especially with Illinois not having Chester Frazier. Syracuse-Arizona State was won by the Orange based on their seed, but I would not be shocked to see ASU win. Syracuse turns the ball over a lot and is not good at all from the FT line. But I do love their backcourt and think Jonny Flynn is one of the ten best players in America and could lead my team anytime.

Sweet 16 Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #4 Gonzaga
• #2 Oklahoma over #3 Syracuse

Chalk again. And neither is really all that close. Surely Ty Lawson would be healthy (or healthy enough) by the Sweet 16, and I think UNC would need him to beat a really good Gonzaga team. Oklahoma beats Syracuse in everything but SOS. And honestly? It’s about time a Big East team did not make the Elite 8. With a healthy Blake Griffin all year, Oklahoma probably gets a #1 seed. This is not a surprise to see them advance so far.

Elite 8 Pick – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #2 Oklahoma

The Tar Heels actually beat Oklahoma in every category. Before looking at the stats I wondered who I would pick just based on the eyeball test. But it’s hard to argue with a system that I devised saying North Carolina is better in every category. The Tar Heels head to the Final Four.

Final Four Predictions

• #1 UConn over #2 Michigan State
• #1 North Carolina over #1 Pittsburgh

UConn bests Michigan State in four categories, and I think the Huskies are the better and more consistent team overall. The Spartans valiant run to Detroit ends here.

North Carolina-Pitt is very close statistically, with Pitt actually holding the edge in guard experience and TO/game. I would not be surprised to see Pitt advance and make it an all Big East championship game, but North Carolina was a better team on the road and is almost a full 10% better at the FT line. This would be a GREAT Final Four game, with the slight edge going to the Tar Heels.

2009 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Game Prediction

• #1 UConn over #1 North Carolina

Based on the metrics, UConn wins this 3-2-1. Each category is very close (save for UNC’s wide edge in FT%) but UConn’s slight advantage in backcourt experience and TO/game gives them the edge. Add in the questions surrounding Ty Lawson’s health and I’ll take this.

If I had just eyeballed the brackets, I’m not sure either one of these teams makes my title game, but it’s pretty obvious that they are proficient in the areas I value.

I’m not a big Jim Calhoun fan, although I think he’s obviously a great coach. But I have to say that banking my entire bracket on a team led by AJ Price, and that has Hasheem Thabeet down low, does not make me overly nervous. UConn was generally considered one of the top two teams in the Big East all year (with Pitt — and then Louisville came on strong at the end) and the Big East was clearly the best conference in America. It is fitting then that a Big East team ends up winning it all.

My official one-and-only bracket for the 2009 Tournament:

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StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

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So there you have it — my official subjective-objective predictions for the 2009 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament. All this really means is that I now have more time and thought invested into getting my bracket horribly and drastically wrong. But I will say this: I have more confidence heading into the first Thursday of March Madness than ever before.

I fully expect that confidence to be completely eroded by Thursday night.

The 2010 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament preview post is live.

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Well, to nobody’s surprise the Hoosiers fell short in Madison today. Verdell Jones and Nick Williams gave a tremendous effort, but it wasn’t good enough against a Badger team that has had the Hoosiers number over the latter half of the this decade.
(Whispered side note: How much has Verdell Jones improved since the beginning of the year? He went from a meek freshman who looked terrified when the ball was in his hands to a confident guard with a solid combination of inside/outside scoring ability. Don’t look now, but Tom Crean may be the developing his first All Big Ten player for the future…)

Anyway, now that the Big Ten regular season is over, it is time for the 2009 Big Ten Tournament. Before we break down the bracket and schedule, here are a couple of links that might interest you as a Big Ten fan — especially if you are thinking about going to the games:

• Big Ten Tournament History – Past Champions and Locations
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 Big Ten Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

Real quick, here are the final Big 10 standings for 2009:

1. Michigan State 15-3 (25-5)
2. Illinois 11-7 (23-8)
3. Purdue 11-7 (22-9)
4. Ohio State 10-8 (20-9)
5. Wisconsin 10-8 (19-11)
6. Penn State 10-8 (21-10)
7. Michigan 9-9 (19-12)
8. Minnesota 9-9 (21-9)
9. Northwestern 8-10 (17-12)
10. Iowa 5-13 (15-16)
11. Indiana 1-17 (6-24)

Now let’s take a look at the 2009 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament bracket. The final seedings came down to the last game of the regular season after a crazy Big Ten season in which so many teams were jumbled up in the middle of the pack. But here is how things will shake out when the Big Ten tournament begins on Thursday:

And here are some quick predictions, which almost surely will prove to be false:

Thursday Big Ten Tournament Predictions:

Northwestern is having one of the best seasons in school history and holding onto the slimmest of hopes for an NCAA Tournament berth. I think they find a way against Minnesota. Michigan is also playing for an NCAA Tournament berth and needs a win over Iowa to help their chances. I think they get it. And I think Indiana exacts revenge on Penn State for the one that slipped away a couple weeks ago in Happy Valley. Is this prediction more with my heart than my head? Absolutely. I don’t care. Indiana plays on to Friday!

Friday Big Ten Tournament Predictions:

If my predictions come true, then Michigan State plays Northwestern in the first game Friday. The Wildcats pulled off one of the upset of the year when they beat the Spartans in East Lansing this year. The element of surprise will not be there for Northwestern this time and Michigan State moves on — while Northwestern goes to the NIT. A great season for the Wildcats, and congratulations to Bill Carmody.

Wisconsin plays Ohio State, and I really like how the Badgers are playing right now. They will be too tough for the Buckeyes and their superb forward Evan Turner. Illinois will take on Michigan, and I think they will beat them. The Illini are just a more consistent team.

Then look who will play in the final game on Friday…Indiana and Purdue! Yet another reasonw why I think the Hoosiers will win Thursday night. How can we have a season in which the Hoosiers and Boilermakers only play one? Seriously? And as much as it pains me to do this, I can’t be completely foolish. I think Purdue would win the rematch. They are simply a much better team this year, but things will begin evening out starting next year.

Saturday Big Ten Tournament Predictions:

My picks thus far have set up semifinal games between Michigan State-Wisconsin and Purdue-Illinois. There is just something that I really like about the way Wisconsin is playing right now. I think Michigan State is the better pick to do some damage in the Big Dance, but I like the Badgers in the Big Ten Tournament. They advance. And Illinois just seems to playing better than Purdue right now. I’m picking the Illini, with Purdue a little weary after a knock down-drag out battle with the Hoosiers on Friday.

Big Ten Tournament Championship Sunday Prediction:

I’ve got Wisconsin and Illinois in the Big Ten Championship Game, and I like the Badgers to win it. They struggled early in the year, but Bo Ryan has them playing solid, smash-mouth basketball again. They found their stroke again earlier today and I think the Badgers at their best are better than Illinois at their best. And in a battle between Bo Ryan and Bruce Weber, I give the edge to Ryan.

Besides, look at that picture. Would you want to pick against that man?

So, if you are thinking of placing any bets on the 2009 Big Ten Tournament, you would be wise to pick the exact opposite of what you just read. History has proven that your odds will be greatly enhanced! Either way, the Big Ten Tournament always seems to provide typical March Madness drama: great games, darkhorses making deep runs, and hard-fought battles between teams that know eachother well.

I’m just glad the Hoosiers have one final chance to try and notch a second victory. They sure have earned it, and I’ll be cheering my ass off Thursday night hoping they get it.

Bo Ryan photo credit: AP Photo/Brian Kersey