Big Night for the Big Ten: Can Soulja Boy Bo Ryan, Tom Izzo, and Thad Matta Crank Out 3 More Ws?

Coming into this season much was made about the demise of the Big Ten as a powerful college basketball conference. The conference sent far less than its usual quota of teams to the NCAA Tournament last year, as only Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, and Indiana made the Big Dance.

Indiana flamed out in Round 1 with a pathetic performance against Arkansas that was indicative of their late-season collapse, Purdue bowed out in Round 2, and Michigan State and Wisconsin actually did the conference relatively proud by reaching the Sweet 16.

Still, criticism of the Big Ten came from far and wide and people wondered if the conference’s fall from grace was more permanent than just a one- or two-year struggle. Well, the Big Ten answered its critics in a big way this season, placing 7 teams in the 2009 NCAA Tournament with two in particular that many have predicted to make deep runs: Michigan State and Purdue.

The 5th seeded Boilermakers won their first round game against Northern Iowa and will face off against #4 seed Washington tomorrow. #10 seed Michigan also won yesterday, scoring a mild upset by beating #7 Clemson. #10 seed Minnesota and #5 seed Illinois both saw their seasons come to an end last night, not all that unexpectedly. The #2 seed Spartans open Tournament play tonight against Robert Morris and both #12 seed Wisconsin and #8 seed Ohio State also play their first games tonight.

I think tonight has a chance to be a very good night for the Big Ten conference.

A Big Ten sweep in tonight’s game would give the conference a 5-2 first round record, which is excellent. It would also mean that Ohio State wins a tough game against an underrated Siena squad that many people (including me in my official tournament bracket) think will win, and that Wisconsin becomes the latest #12 seed to make it out of the first round with an upset over Florida State. (For the record, I have the Badgers going to the Sweet 16.) Michigan State is heavily favored against Robert Morris, so it would be a real shocker if they did not advance.

Despite my system-based pick of Siena over Ohio State, I think a) that my system has proven to be crap, so I no longer trust it and b) the Buckeyes have a great chance to pull out a W. Here are some quick previews and predictions of tonight’s games:

#12 seed Wisconsin v #5 seed Florida State

Before I jump into my reasoning for why Wisconsin can upset Florida State, I would like to share a hilarious video with you. Many Big Ten and Wisconsin fans may have seen this already, as I believe this video is from 2007, but I saw it for the first time today. I am not sure that I can think of anything more ironic in college basketball than Bo Ryan dancing to the eternally awful song “Crank dat Soulja Boy”. I don’t even know if that’s the actual name of the song, and I don’t really care. House debris in a tornado has smashed together in more pleasant harmony than this “song.”

Either way, the video of Bo Ryan “cranking dat” (or however you say it) is pure gold:

Video: Bo Ryan Soulja Boy Dance

Now onto my reasoning for picking Wisconsin.

Bo Ryan has proven himself to be one of the most consistent tournament coaches in college basketball. When he coached at UW-Platteville, Bo Ryan’s teams made the NAIA and then NCAA D-III tournaments in each of his final 12 seasons there from 1987-88 through 1998-99. During that time, they only lost in the first round once and won four championships. While at Wisconsin, Bo Ryan and the Badgers have made the tournament for 8 straight seasons, and have only been bounced in the first round once (2006). He has led Wisconsin to two Sweet 16s and one Elite 8.

The Badgers play tough, hard-nosed defense, they do not turn the ball over, they make free throws, and they keep games within reach by imposing their plodding, deliberate style of basketball on opponents. I know that Florida State played well in the ACC Tournament and knocked off a Lawson-less North Carolina team, but the Seminoles only have one player who scores in double-digits: Toney Douglas.

Bo Ryan and the Badgers are masters at removing a team’s first option and making #2, #3, and #4 options beat them. Without a superb performance from Douglas, I don’t think Florida State can win a grind-it-out game against Wisconsin. Obviously if the game gets into the high-60s or 70s, the advantage goes to Florida State; but I think Wisconsin keeps the pace slow and low-scoring and gets one of their typical ugly but solid wins.

I am a little worried about the Badgers in round two, and fear that my apparent man-crush on Bo Ryan may have decieved me into thinking that they are a Sweet 16-caliber team, but I feel good about tonight.

Hey — the usual Red & White (or Cream and Crimson) I root for come tournament time is nowhere to be found this year. Old habits die hard. Thus, I’m getting behind Soulja Boy Bo Ryan and the Badgers. Perhaps this prediction is wishful thinking, but Florida State is by no means a juggernaut and a solid defensive performance from Wisconsin can create another 5-12 upset.

#8 seed Ohio State v #9 seed Siena

It’s an 8-9 game, so no one will be surprised no matter which way this game goes.

Siena obviously has a better record, but played in a much less competitive conference. Siena also plays a much more up-tempo, high-scoring style than Ohio State, which should create an interesting contrast in tonight’s game. The reason why I am waffling on my original prediction of Siena is that the Buckeyes will have the best player on the floor in Evan Turner (something my bracket-busting system did not take into account). Every time I see him play I get more and more impressed.

So often, the best player on the floor can tip the balance in a game between two evenly matched teams. If Evan Turner plays like the superstar we saw during Big Ten play, he may be able to give Ohio State the lift it needs to play on. This is one of the picks on my bracket that I did not “agree” with — but I had a system and I was sticking to it. (Damnit.) If I was putting money down on a game-by-game basis I would have a hard time picking against Evan Turner and the Buckeyes.

So there you have it: official fence-straddling. I have become what I despise: the Mike Golic of bloggers. Bracket says one thing, this post says another. Screw it, my bracket is already toast — I’m rooting for and predicting an Ohio State victory.

Indiana is isn’t in the tournament so I’m Big 10 all the way.

#2 seed Michigan State v #15 seed Robert Morris

There is not much to say about this game in terms of a prediction. The Spartans have been a little inconsistent this year, but I think even the “bad” Spartans could score a victory against Robert Morris. If they find a way to become the next #2 seed to infamously bow out in round one, I and many other people will be ripping up their brackets and lighting them on fire.

I’ve got the Spartans going all the way to Detroit, and I think it starts tonight with a rout.

All things considered, if the Big Ten can get out of round one with a 5-2 record it would be a smashing success for a conference that so many have disparaged over the past few years. Even 4-3 would be a good step in the right direction. It’s up to Ohio State and Wisconsin to make that happen. The Badgers have won 7 out of 10 coming into tonight and the Buckeyes have won 4 out of 5. Both of their first round games are there for the taking, and I think Big Ten Nation will be able to walk away from tonight very pleased with the results.

Mens Tournament Bracket Predictions: Spartans Reach Detroit, but Year of the Big East Continues

There is only one thing more fun than watching the NCAA Tournament brackets be announced live on Selection Sunday: filling them in over the next few days to arrive at your own personal Final Four and, ultimately, national champion.

We all know that the NCAA Tournament is essentially a crapshoot. Oh sure, there are historical trends that make sense to follow (#1 seeds will make the Sweet 16, for example) and a wide spectrum of personal college basketball knowledge can help you see a Cinderella before any of the Thursday games tip-off.

But, we all see it every year: we enter into a family pool, all the guys have been watching every basketball game since January and have been poring over the numbers, and then Mom decides to pick “the underdogs and the teams with the prettiest uniforms” and ends up winning the bracket.

If something like this has never happened to you during March Madness you are either lying or Joe Lunardi. And hell, Joe Lunardi is only proven to be good at picking the brackets before they are announced. I’m sure he runs into the same problems as the rest of us when trying to predict the outcome of actual tournament.

Because of the randomness of it all, I usually just eyeball my brackets and go with first impressions. Some years I pick a lot of upsets, some years I don’t. And usually I do three, four, five different brackets in an effort to diversify my picks and give myself, theoretically, a better chance of at least winning one pool.

Well now that I have this blog, and have decided it is a good idea to publish every infinitesimal and meaningless thought I have about sports, I feel like there is more at stake with my picks this year. So I decided that I wanted to do just one bracket, and to have a specific system I used for filling it out. (Plus, I took one look at this year’s bracket and realized that so many of the games seemed like toss-ups, I needed some kind of analysis I trusted to fall back on and break the ties.)

Let me be clear right off the bat: In no way do I endorse the following system as the best NCAA Tournament bracket system possible. Nor am I wholeheartedly convinced that it is even necessarily good; nor, truth be told, did it really require a whole lot of in-depth thought to come up with.

But…after devising the system and using it to go through the entire bracket, the results were as follows:

• Higher seeds, especially the top-line seeds, won most of the games. This is usually what happens, and what I expected, so I was pleased.
• One #12 seed beat a #5 seed. This always happens, so again, I was pleased.
• A darkhorse Sweet 16 team (13th seed or lower) emerged. There is often one very low seed that makes it out of the first weekend; but rarely more than one or two.
• A #2 or #3 seed lost in the first weekend. Out of 8 such teams, there is usually one or two gone before the Sweet 16. This held true in my predictions.
• The Elite 8 and Final Four is dominated by high seeds. Again, while the first few rounds of the tournament make headlines because of upsets, when the dust settles for the final three rounds, the majority of the teams are usually the teams with the best seeds.

So, I did not fudge my system in any way during the selection process, and the results were what I “hoped” to get. By this I mean that my system did not place 4 #10 seeds in the Final Four, or just give me all favorites winning. It actually matched up pretty well with typical tournament trends that we see from year to year.

Before I jump into my actual picks, here is a description of my subjective-objective system, which, if it proves successful this year, may be my new system for picking the NCAA Tournament moving forward.

StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

The JRod Subjective-Objective System for Picking the NCAA Tournament (Which Hopefully is More Successful Than Throwing Darts or my Mom’s Picks)

Why do I call it a “subjective-objective” system? Because I sat down and defined what kinds of quantifiable team stats mean the most to me when deciding what team will beat another. My choice of metrics was obviously very subjective. But once that choice was made, there was very little room for any other subjective decision-making, with one caveat — which I will get to in a bit.

Here are the metrics I used to measure each matchup on a head-to-head basis:

• Regular Season Road Record
• Tournament Seed
• Strength of Schedule
• Team FT%
• Team Turnovers per Game
• Experience of Guards

A few quick notes about the metrics:

1. I understand that these are not perfect. Road record, for instance, does not take into account a team’s record on neutral sites, which is perhaps an even more accurate reflection of how they will do on neutral sites in the NCAA Tournament. There are plenty of other problems and holes in this system. Feel free to point them out in the comments if you wish, but just know that I already know they exist.
2. Turnovers per game does not take into account assist/turnover ratios, number of possessions per game, style of play, etc. Comparing TO/game in a vacuum across teams is obviously not completely “fair” or accurate.
3. To measure the experience of the the guards, I used the information available at the CollegeHoopsNet.com team tournament capsules. For each team’s projected lineup, every guard was assigned a value of 1, 2, 3, or 4, based on their class. Freshman were a 1, Sophomores a 2, Juniors a 3, and Seniors a 4. The sum was then divided by the number of guards to get an average. Obviously the higher the better. Again, this is not perfect, but I like teams with experienced, older guards, so it works for my subjective statistical metrics.
4. For tournament seed, the better seed got the advantage. Why? Because more often than not, the better seed wins — except in the case of 8/9 matchups, where 9 seeds actually win 53% of the time. Hence, to play the averages, the 9 seed got the seed advantage in 8/9 games. But I thought this was important because the selection committee spent hours upon hours comparing these teams, and I generally trust their ability to tier the teams.
5. In the case of a tie (i.e. each team winning three categories) the team with the better seed wins the tie-breaker and moves on. Now, here’s the caveat to complete objectivity: If there is a tie between two teams whose seeds are adjacent (a #2 seed playing a #3 seed or a #1 seed, for instance) then I use my own personal gut feelings/bias to break the tie. This only happened a few times. 95% of the games were “picked” using the objective results of the system.

If anything is unclear, leave me a question in the comments and I’ll try to clear it up. Again, I am not claiming that this system was particularly well thought out or perfect. However, the relative simplicity of the stats did allow me to compile everything into a spreadsheet in about 2.5 hours, it does take into account the traits that I personally value, and the results ended up producing a bracket I would have been happy to end with if I had just run straight through it off the top of my head.

If you are interested, here is the actual bracket breakdown spreadsheet I used so you can see the actual data. You will notice that I did not list the #16 seeds. Sorry guys, but I knew nothing would make me pick a #16 over a #1. Perhaps that will burn me, but I feel fairly confident going with history on that one.

All that said, let’s break down the regions:

Midwest Region Predictions

First Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville
• #9 Siena over #8 Ohio State
• #5 Utah over #12 Arizona
• #4 Wake Forest over #13 Cleveland State
• #6 West Virginia over #11 Dayton
• #14 North Dakota St over #3 Kansas
• #7 Boston College over #10 USC
• #2 Michigan State over #15 Robert Morris

Siena and Ohio State were actually pretty evenly matched up, with Siena having a slight 3-2-1 advantage. Siena has a much better record on the road and more experienced guards, so I feel comfortable about that one. But it’s an 8/9 game so who the hell knows.

The one that will jump off the page is #14 North Dakota State over #3 Kansas. NDSU went 10-4 on the road this year, makes just under 74% of their free throws, has all senior guards, and only turns the ball over 11.3 times. Their Strength of Schedule is obviously not very good, but they played outstanding against their level of competition. Considering Kansas’ poor play very late in the season, and their relative youth, I am not afraid of this upset pick. If I had to bet money, I’d obviously put it on the Jayhawks, but now I won’t be at all shocked if they go down, much to the dismay of Bill Self.

Second Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #9 Siena
• #5 Utah over #4 Wake Forest
• #14 North Dakota State over #6 West Virginia
• #2 Michigan State over #7 Boston College

I like Utah over Wake Forest because of the experience factor, the fact that Utah turns the ball over more than two times per game less, and Utah’s ability to hit free throws at a 78.2% clip. Wake Forest clearly has the more talented team though; so again, this is a game where me being wrong would not be surprising at all.

And once again, you see my tourney darkhorse North Dakota State winning again. Considering the numbers I stated above, does this surprise you? West Virginia shoots less than 70% from the line, has relative inexperience at the guard position (a 2.5 score to NDSU’s 4) and turns the ball over slightly more.

Sweet 16 Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #5 Utah
• #2 Michigan State over #14 North Dakota State

Louisville beats Utah across the board, except for free throw shooting. The Michigan State-North Dakota State game was actually a tie by the categories. Michigan State wins in road record, seed, and strength of schedule, but falls short in FT shooting, guard experience, and TO/game. Non-adjacent favored seeds win out though, so NDSU’s Cinderalla story comes to an end.

Elite 8 Pick – Midwest Region

• #2 Michigan State over #1 Louisville

Honestly, this surprised me a little bit. When I first sat down to look at the brackets, the Spartans were a team I looked at as potentially being ripe for an early upset. But looking deeper, many of their metrics, at least with respect to my personal basketball biases, make them a tournament-ready team. Add in the extra motivation of the Final Four being in Detroit, and I can see this happening.

The Spartans win 3-2-1, with the teams tying in guard experience and Louisville besting Michigan State in seeding and TO/game. Michigan State’s other advantages were by slim margins, which is to be expected. I think this would be a great regional final that could go either way (a refrain you will probably hear repeated as we move forward), but as a Big Ten fan I would love to see Tom Izzo and the boys make it to Detroit.

West Region Predictions

First Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn
• #9 Texas A&M over #8 BYU
• #5 Purdue over #12 Northern Iowa
• #4 Washington over #13 Mississippi State
• #6 Marquette over #11 Utah State
• #3 Missouri over #14 Cornell
• #7 California over #10 Maryland
• #2 Memphis over #15 Cal State Northridge

No real surprises. BYU-Texas A&M was a 3-3 tie based on the metrics, but I chose Texas A&M because they have slightly more experienced guard play and played a slightly tougher schedule. Again, total toss-up, could go either way — but you have to pick one!

Second Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #9 Texas A&M
• #4 Washington over #5 Purdue
• #6 Marquette over #3 Missouri
• #7 California over #2 Memphis

The top part of the bracket goes according to seed. I actually thought Purdue would go a little farther when I first embarked on this analysis, but Washington just edges them out. The surprises come in the bottom half of the bracket.

Marquette defies seeding to beat Missouri, but I don’t really consider this an upset. Even without Dominic James, Marquette has vast experience in its backcourt, they don’t turn the ball over much, and they make 72% of their free throws.

Memphis losing this early surprised me a little, but I do not think they are nearly as good as they were last year. Cal actually bests Memphis in FT%, SOS, guard experience, and TO/game. I think Memphis’ inexperience and lower level of competition since January hurts them and they make an early exit. I have no qualms going with the stats and picking Cal here. (Side note: Is John Calipari screaming, crying, or yawning in that picture?)

Sweet 16 Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #4 Washington
• #6 Marquette over #7 California

UConn is very strong across the board with respect to the stats I chose, and they pretty much dominate Washington. Marquette-Cal is a relatively even matchup, but the experience and slightly better TO/game numbers give Marquette the edge.

Elite 8 Pick – West Region

• #1 UConn over #6 Marquette

An all Big East regional final in the West would be great. The problem for Marquette is that UConn is just a little bit better at a couple more categories. UConn went 10-1 on the road this year and has an all-senior backcourt that includes the great AJ Price (who I have been a big fan of ever since he dismantled Indiana last season). Plus, while this is not really taken into account statistically, having a 7′3 big man down low in Hasheem Thabeet obviously gives UConn a dimension that most teams do not have. I am comfortable sending the Huskies to the Final Four.

East Region Predictions

First Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh
• #8 Oklahoma State over #9 Tennessee
• #12 Wisconsin over #5 Florida State
• #4 Xavier over #13 Portland State
• #6 UCLA over #11 Virginia Commonwealth
• #3 Villanova over #14 American U.
• #7 Texas over #10 Minnesota
• #2 Duke over #15 Binghamton

Oklahoma State-Tennessee was a 3-3 tie. However, one of the categories Tennessee “won” was being a 9 seed over an 8 seed. Considering the fact that OSU has more experienced guards, turns the ball over less, and shoots better from the line, I like them to win. And for goodness sakes, 9 seeds only win 3% more than 8 seeds, so it’s not like the 9 over 8 advantage should determine every one of these matchups.

Wisconsin is my #12 seed that pulls the upset. The Badgers burned me in the Big Ten Tournament (I picked them to win it) and this pick scares me a little bit considering how well Florida State played in the ACC Tournament. However, Wisconsin has more experienced guards (by class anyway) and turns the ball over a staggering 5.6 times less per game. I actually look at this game as a toss-up, but I feel comfortable going with the Badgers in the upset.

Interesting note: VCU over UCLA is a trendy first round upset pick. Led by former tournament star Eric Maynor (remember VCU’s upset of Duke a couple years ago?) a lot of people, including Jay Bilas, think VCU could/will beat UCLA. However, this was the only first round game (minus the 1/16 battles, which I did not analyze) in which one team won all six categories — and it was UCLA doing the winning. I had actually anticipated picking VCU, but based on the analysis, I now feel pretty good picking the Bruins.

Which, of course, means that VCU will still probably win. Oh well. Such is March Madness.

Second Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #8 Oklahoma State
• #12 Wisconsin over #4 Xavier
• #3 Villanova over #6 UCLA
• #2 Duke over #7 Texas

Well, here I go again banking my credibility on Bo Ryan and the Badgers. Their experience, protection of the ball, FT%, and SOS all trump Xavier. This worries me a bit because Wisconsin has been so up and down this year, but they do play the kind of basketball I respect, and have made noise in the tournament before. By no means would I be shocked to see Wisconsin lose here (or in the first round for that matter), but I’m sticking with the Badgers to move onto the Sweet 16 and help restore some cred to the Big Ten.

Sweet 16 Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #12 Wisconsin
• #3 Villanova over #2 Duke

Halelujah, Pittsburgh beats Wisconsin. I was really worried that I might have devised a system that would choose this game in a way I would have a really hard time justifying. But Pitt was better on the road and has more experience in the backcourt. It ended up a 3-3 tie, with Pitt’s tremendous seed advantage tipping the scales.

The Villanova-Duke matchup was 3-3, which should go to the higher seed. However, because it’s a 2-3 matchup, I gave myself the wiggle room to be subjective in my choice. Duke is playing well, but I love ‘Nova’s backcourt and I just don’t see this Duke team as being built for a long tourney run. ‘Nova moves on for another all Big East Regional Final.

Elite 8 Pick – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #3 Villanova

As you can tell, my subjective choices of metrics obviously prove that I am a fan of the Big East’s brand of basketball. Through three regions, I have chosen five Big East schools to make the Elite 8. Villanova is far superior at the line, but Pittsburgh faced a tougher schedule and has more experience guards that turn the ball over less. Jamie Dixon and the Panthers move on to Detroit.

South Region Predictions

First Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina
• #9 Butler over #8 LSU
• #5 Illinois over #12 Western Kentucky
• #4 Gonzaga over #13 Akron
• #6 Arizona State over #11 Temple
• #3 Syracuse over #14 Stephen F. Austin
• #7 Clemson over #10 Michigan
• #2 Oklahoma over #15 Morgan State

A pretty much by-the-seed first round in the South. There are a few games I would not be surprised to see go the other way (WKU over Illinois, Michigan over Clemson, for example) but I have no issues with any of these games. Butler and LSU was close, and LSU actually has more experience and turns the ball over less, but Butler actually played a tougher schedule and was better on the road. I like rooting for the Bulldogs anyway, so I’m glad this turned out how it did.

Second Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #9 Butler
• #4 Gonzaga over #5 Illinois
• #3 Syracuse over #6 Arizona State
• #2 Oklahoma over #7 Clemson

Chalk reigns again as the top four seeds all advance. Illinois versus Gonzaga was very close, but I definitely would have picked Gonzaga in this one without the stats, so I feel good that it turned out this way — especially with Illinois not having Chester Frazier. Syracuse-Arizona State was won by the Orange based on their seed, but I would not be shocked to see ASU win. Syracuse turns the ball over a lot and is not good at all from the FT line. But I do love their backcourt and think Jonny Flynn is one of the ten best players in America and could lead my team anytime.

Sweet 16 Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #4 Gonzaga
• #2 Oklahoma over #3 Syracuse

Chalk again. And neither is really all that close. Surely Ty Lawson would be healthy (or healthy enough) by the Sweet 16, and I think UNC would need him to beat a really good Gonzaga team. Oklahoma beats Syracuse in everything but SOS. And honestly? It’s about time a Big East team did not make the Elite 8. With a healthy Blake Griffin all year, Oklahoma probably gets a #1 seed. This is not a surprise to see them advance so far.

Elite 8 Pick – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #2 Oklahoma

The Tar Heels actually beat Oklahoma in every category. Before looking at the stats I wondered who I would pick just based on the eyeball test. But it’s hard to argue with a system that I devised saying North Carolina is better in every category. The Tar Heels head to the Final Four.

Final Four Predictions

• #1 UConn over #2 Michigan State
• #1 North Carolina over #1 Pittsburgh

UConn bests Michigan State in four categories, and I think the Huskies are the better and more consistent team overall. The Spartans valiant run to Detroit ends here.

North Carolina-Pitt is very close statistically, with Pitt actually holding the edge in guard experience and TO/game. I would not be surprised to see Pitt advance and make it an all Big East championship game, but North Carolina was a better team on the road and is almost a full 10% better at the FT line. This would be a GREAT Final Four game, with the slight edge going to the Tar Heels.

2009 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Game Prediction

• #1 UConn over #1 North Carolina

Based on the metrics, UConn wins this 3-2-1. Each category is very close (save for UNC’s wide edge in FT%) but UConn’s slight advantage in backcourt experience and TO/game gives them the edge. Add in the questions surrounding Ty Lawson’s health and I’ll take this.

If I had just eyeballed the brackets, I’m not sure either one of these teams makes my title game, but it’s pretty obvious that they are proficient in the areas I value.

I’m not a big Jim Calhoun fan, although I think he’s obviously a great coach. But I have to say that banking my entire bracket on a team led by AJ Price, and that has Hasheem Thabeet down low, does not make me overly nervous. UConn was generally considered one of the top two teams in the Big East all year (with Pitt — and then Louisville came on strong at the end) and the Big East was clearly the best conference in America. It is fitting then that a Big East team ends up winning it all.

My official one-and-only bracket for the 2009 Tournament:

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StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

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So there you have it — my official subjective-objective predictions for the 2009 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament. All this really means is that I now have more time and thought invested into getting my bracket horribly and drastically wrong. But I will say this: I have more confidence heading into the first Thursday of March Madness than ever before.

I fully expect that confidence to be completely eroded by Thursday night.

Big Ten Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Can Bo Ryan, Badgers Go All the Way?

If you came to this page looking for picks and predictions for the 2009 NCAA Tournament, we’ve got you covered.

Follow the link to our 2009 NCAA Tournament Game-by-Game Picks all the way through the Final Four.

Or, you can view them by region:

• Midwest Region Breakdown and Predictions
• East Region Breakdown and Predictions
• South Region Breakdown and Predictions
• West Region Breakdown and Predictions

And if you actually came to this page to review our 2009 Big 10 Tournament predictions, pardon the interruption and continue reading below.

Well, to nobody’s surprise the Hoosiers fell short in Madison today. Verdell Jones and Nick Williams gave a tremendous effort, but it wasn’t good enough against a Badger team that has had the Hoosiers number over the latter half of the this decade.

(Whispered side note: How much has Verdell Jones improved since the beginning of the year? He went from a meek freshman who looked terrified when the ball was in his hands to a confident guard with a solid combination of inside/outside scoring ability. Don’t look now, but Tom Crean may be the developing his first All Big Ten player for the future…)

Anyway, now that the Big Ten regular season is over, it is time for the 2009 Big Ten Tournament. Before we break down the bracket and schedule, here are a couple of links that might interest you as a Big Ten fan — especially if you are thinking about going to the games:

• Big Ten Tournament History – Past Champions and Locations
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 Big Ten Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

Real quick, here are the final Big 10 standings for 2009:

1. Michigan State 15-3 (25-5)
2. Illinois 11-7 (23-8)
3. Purdue 11-7 (22-9)
4. Ohio State 10-8 (20-9)
5. Wisconsin 10-8 (19-11)
6. Penn State 10-8 (21-10)
7. Michigan 9-9 (19-12)
8. Minnesota 9-9 (21-9)
9. Northwestern 8-10 (17-12)
10. Iowa 5-13 (15-16)
11. Indiana 1-17 (6-24)

Now let’s take a look at the 2009 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament bracket. The final seedings came down to the last game of the regular season after a crazy Big Ten season in which so many teams were jumbled up in the middle of the pack. But here is how things will shake out when the Big Ten tournament begins on Thursday:

2009 Big Ten Mens Basketball Tournament Schedule and Bracket

Game	Date	Matchup	Time	TV
1	Thu, March 12	#8 Minnesota def. #9 Northwestern 66-53	12:00 ET	Big Ten Network
2	Thu, March 12	#7 Michigan def. #10 Iowa 72-45	2:30 ET	ESPN2
3	Thu, March 12	#6 Penn State def. #11 Indiana 66-51	5:00 ET	ESPN2
4	Fri, March 13	#1 Michigan State def. #8 Minnesota 64-56	12:00 ET	ESPN
5	Fri, March 13	#5 Ohio State def. #4 Wisconsin 61-57	2:30 ET	ESPN
6	Fri, March 13	#2 Illinois def. #7 Michigan 60-50	6:30 ET	Big Ten Network
7	Fri, March 13	#3 Purdue def. #6 Penn State 79-65	9:00 ET	Big Ten Network
8	Sat, March 14	#5 Ohio State def. #1 Michigan State 82-70	1:40 ET	CBS
9	Sat, March 14	#3 Purdue def. #2 Illinois 66-56	4:00 ET	CBS
10	Sun, March 15	#3 Purdue def. #5 Ohio State 65-61	3:30 ET	CBS

And here are some quick predictions, which almost surely will prove to be false:

Thursday Big Ten Tournament Predictions:

Northwestern is having one of the best seasons in school history and holding onto the slimmest of hopes for an NCAA Tournament berth. I think they find a way against Minnesota. Michigan is also playing for an NCAA Tournament berth and needs a win over Iowa to help their chances. I think they get it. And I think Indiana exacts revenge on Penn State for the one that slipped away a couple weeks ago in Happy Valley. Is this prediction more with my heart than my head? Absolutely. I don’t care. Indiana plays on to Friday!

Friday Big Ten Tournament Predictions:

If my predictions come true, then Michigan State plays Northwestern in the first game Friday. The Wildcats pulled off one of the upset of the year when they beat the Spartans in East Lansing this year. The element of surprise will not be there for Northwestern this time and Michigan State moves on — while Northwestern goes to the NIT. A great season for the Wildcats, and congratulations to Bill Carmody.

Wisconsin plays Ohio State, and I really like how the Badgers are playing right now. They will be too tough for the Buckeyes and their superb forward Evan Turner. Illinois will take on Michigan, and I think they will beat them. The Illini are just a more consistent team.

Then look who will play in the final game on Friday…Indiana and Purdue! Yet another reasonw why I think the Hoosiers will win Thursday night. How can we have a season in which the Hoosiers and Boilermakers only play one? Seriously? And as much as it pains me to do this, I can’t be completely foolish. I think Purdue would win the rematch. They are simply a much better team this year, but things will begin evening out starting next year.

Saturday Big Ten Tournament Predictions:

My picks thus far have set up semifinal games between Michigan State-Wisconsin and Purdue-Illinois. There is just something that I really like about the way Wisconsin is playing right now. I think Michigan State is the better pick to do some damage in the Big Dance, but I like the Badgers in the Big Ten Tournament. They advance. And Illinois just seems to playing better than Purdue right now. I’m picking the Illini, with Purdue a little weary after a knock down-drag out battle with the Hoosiers on Friday.

Big Ten Tournament Championship Sunday Prediction:

I’ve got Wisconsin and Illinois in the Big Ten Championship Game, and I like the Badgers to win it. They struggled early in the year, but Bo Ryan has them playing solid, smash-mouth basketball again. They found their stroke again earlier today and I think the Badgers at their best are better than Illinois at their best. And in a battle between Bo Ryan and Bruce Weber, I give the edge to Ryan.

Besides, look at that picture. Would you want to pick against that man?

So, if you are thinking of placing any bets on the 2009 Big Ten Tournament, you would be wise to pick the exact opposite of what you just read. History has proven that your odds will be greatly enhanced! Either way, the Big Ten Tournament always seems to provide typical March Madness drama: great games, darkhorses making deep runs, and hard-fought battles between teams that know eachother well.

I’m just glad the Hoosiers have one final chance to try and notch a second victory. They sure have earned it, and I’ll be cheering my ass off Thursday night hoping they get it.

Bo Ryan photo credit: AP Photo/Brian Kersey