Sports Guy and Clippers Jinx Combine to Sideline Blake Griffin

The following excerpt appeared in Bill Simmons’ most recent NBA preview column, which was posted on October 23rd:

Griffin is the luckiest blue-chipper since them: not only does he play for a potential playoff team, but he doesn’t have to fight with someone for minutes or carry the scoring load. He just has to worry about running the floor, rebounding and finishing. A cushy situation, to say the least. For once, it appears as if becoming a Clipper was the BEST thing that could have happened to someone.

(Note: Please don’t e-mail this paragraph to me in three weeks if Blake is rolling around on the floor holding his right ankle. Thank you.)

Unfortunately for Blake Griffin, Clippers fans, and basketball fans in general, the following headline appeared on ESPN.com this morning: “Clippers’ Griffin has broken kneecap, out weeks.”

Well that sucks.

If you’re a Clippers fan, looks like it’s time to start emailing or tweeting Simmons.

… Continue Reading

Elite 8: North Carolina-Oklahoma Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the North Carolina-Oklahoma Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

(You have my apologies in advance for the relative shortness of this Elite 8 preview. I’ve spent a good 2 to 3 hours on each of the others, but I’m under the gun after an oil change for my car took a little longer than expected and a huge birthday bash for my girlfriend’s grandfather is quickly impending. But I’ll try to go as in-depth as I can on this one.)

Both North Carolina and Oklahoma head into Sunday’s South Regional Final riding incredible waves of momentum.

North Carolina has their leader back in Ty Lawson, looking healthier by the minute, and he led them to victory over an overmatched Gonzaga team last night. Lawson scored 19 points and had 9 assists in the 98-77 North Carolina victory, while Tyler Hansbrough poured in 24 points on efficient 8-10 shooting and had 10 rebounds.

Likewise, Blake Griffin is showing no ill-effects from the injury that sidelined him towards the end of the regular season and Oklahoma is beginning to look like the team that many thought was going to be a #1 seed before slumping down the stretch. OU completely took apart Syracuse last night, winning 84-71, and earning the only victory I did not predict from the eight Sweet 16 games.

Tomorrow’s game should be a good one, and certainly more competitive than the Sweet 16 games for each. Here are the particulars:

North Carolina-Oklahoma South Regional Final – Elite 8 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: South Regional Final – Elite 8 Tickets
• South Regional Breakdown
• Date: Sunday, March 29
• TV Time: 5:05 PM on CBS
• Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -6.5
• Over-Under: 164

Now let’s hop over to Game Predictor for a quick look at this one, using the same statistical categories we’ve used for each Sweet 16 game and each Elite 8 game:

• Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.156 | Oklahoma – 1.125
• Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.933 | Oklahoma – 0.956
• Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.425 | Oklahoma – 1.118
• Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.762 | Oklahoma – 0.675
• Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.413 | Oklahoma – 0.395

And the prediction from Game Predictor:

• Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 72.9% | Oklahoma – 27.1%
• Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 74.5 | Oklahoma – 66.9
• Odds to Cover Spread (OU +6.5): North Carolina – 61.4% | Oklahoma – 38.6%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

I am not surprised by the Game Predictor analysis, nor do I disagree.

Oklahoma is a very good team, and Blake Griffin is obviously monster. The battle between he and Tyler Hansbrough is going to be a great one, and features 2 of perhaps the 5 five best college basketball players over the last half decade. Griffin most likely will not be a four-year player like Hansbrough has been, and has much more upside at the next level because of his athleticism, but Hansbrough is a wily old veteran who will come as close as anyone can to battling Griffin to a draw.

That leaves the rest of the two teams’ respective rosters to decide this game. And unless Griffin just dominates Hansbrough, I don’t see the rest of the Oklahoma team being able to do enough to keep pace with North Carolina.

Willie Warren is a fine player, especially for a freshman, and has a bright future, but Ty Lawson is 3-year veteran with tournament experience whose vast improvement from downtown has provided another weapon for a North Carolina offense that already had plenty. The Tar Heels average an astounding 90.5 points per game, utilizing the same attacking style of offense that was on display last night against Gonzaga. Oklahoma has shown that they can play in the 90s this season, but against the likes of Baylor and Texas Tech, neither of which, obviously, is the caliber of North Carolina.

For Oklahoma to compete, Warren will obviously need to be on his game from a scoring standpoint, and guys like Taylor Griffin, Tony Crocker, and Austin Johnson will need to defy their season averages and two or three of them will need to get into double figures. North Carolina has five guys who average in double figures on the season, and while Oklahoma displayed solid defense last night against Syracuse, they will have to step it up another notch or two to contain this potent Tar Heels offense.

Honestly, it looks to me like this Tar Heels team is on a mission that was going to be derailed by one thing: Ty Lawson’s injury. Considering his second half performance against LSU, and his efficiently explosive 27 minutes against Gonzaga, I think we can remove his injury from the list of concerns for the Tar Heels. Said Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt after last night’s loss to Carolina:

“If they play like that, they’re going to win the national championship,” Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt said. “They’d hit every shot, it seemed like. You can’t do anything on teams like that.”

I’m not ready to go quite that far yet, but it’s hard to argue with Hytvelt’s sentiment.

I predicted North Carolina to reach the title game, but to lose to UConn. And whether or not UConn ends up winning, I have a hard time believing this year’s national champion won’t come from one of the four Big East teams remaining. But North Carolina is the one team I think can compete with the Big East badasses that are still standing.

And I certainly think they can, and will, beat Oklahoma.

Blake Griffin will no doubt have a great game and give his all in trying to keep Oklahoma in it, but I think North Carolina pulls away in the second half and wins this one by 10 or 11 to cover the spread and move on to Detroit.

Who do you think will win the Elite Matchup between Oklahoma and UNC?

• North Carolina
• Oklahoma

View Results

 Loading ...

Sweet 16: Syracuse-Oklahoma Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Oklahoma-Syracuse game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

I know I’ve been saying for this most of these Sweet 16 previews, but this is going to be a really good game. I guess when you’re broken an entire season down to a 16-game tournament, you expect the majority of the games to be between high profile, very good teams.

Oklahoma was thought by many to be a #1 seed for most of the season. Then Blake Griffin got hurt, the Sooners lost a few games, and never really got their swagger back during the regular season or Big 12 Tournament. They have rebounded for two victories in rounds one and two, but something about this team still just feels a bit off from where they were before the Griffin injury.

Syracuse is still be riding a wave of momentum from their thrilling 6-OT victory over UConn in the Big East tournament. The ‘Cuse fell short against Louisville in the Big East Championship game, but won both of their first tournament games by double digits. And with a point guard like Jonny Flynn, shooters like Devendorf and Rautins, and a tough interior player like Paul Harris, you have to think Syracuse has a chance to beatany team still standing.

What’s in store tomorrow night? Here are the particulars:

Oklahoma v Syracuse Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: South Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• South Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 7:27 PM on CBS
• Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: Oklahoma -1
• Over-Under: 153 1/2
• My prediction: originally it was Oklahoma…now I’m not so sure. Read on.

Let’s jump right into the Game Predictor analysis, using the same statistical categories we’ve used for all of the other Sweet 16 previews.

• Offensive Efficiency: Syracuse – 1.077 | Oklahoma – 1.123
• Defensive Efficiency: Syracuse – 0.965 | Oklahoma – 0.955
• Assist/TO Ratio: Syracuse – 1.243 | Oklahoma – 1.120
• Free Throw %: Syracuse – 0.645 | Oklahoma – 0.676
• Defensive Field Goal %: Syracuse – 0.408 | Oklahoma – 0.394

And now the prediction. It is definitely the closest one I have seen so far, which makes perfect sense to me. Similar seeds, probably very similar strength of schedules, with Oklahoma being slightly better overall with respect to the stats analyzed above.

• Odds to Win Game: Syracuse – 48.8% | Oklahoma – 51.2%
• Most Likely Final Score: Syracuse – 66.7 | Oklahoma – 67.7
• Odds to Cover Spread (Syracuse +1): Syracuse – 51.5% | Oklahoma – 48.5%
• Confidence Level: 1 Star

Man, this is a though one. Even the Game Predictor has a confidence level of only one star, making this basically a pick ‘em game.

I like the way that Syracuse is playing right now and I definitely like the experience and proven clutch ability of their backcourt. But Oklahoma obviously has the best player on the court in Blake Griffin. And as we know, more often than not in basketball, the team with the best player wins. I’m not saying all the time, or even more than 55-45, but if you put your money on the team with the best player I think you would win more than you lose.

But I’m going against that here, and I’m going against Game Predictor.

Perhaps I am still thinking too much about the 6-OT game, but there is just something I like about this Syracuse team. This is not a team that will dominate you inside, and they will have their hands full with Blake Griffin, but Syracuse is tough mentally and physically and has a floor general in Jonny Flynn who has a motor that never stops.

Plus, the old cliche is that tournaments are won by the team that gets hot at the right time.

Syracuse won their last four regular season games, made it to the Big East championship, and won by double figures in their first two tourney games. Oklahoma lost three out of their last five regular season games, choked in the Big 12 tournament, and struggled with Michigan before putting them away late. In a game this close, with such a razor thin margin of difference, I think Syracuse’s roll supersedes Blake Griffin’s greatness.

I’m going with Syracuse, straight up. And hoping for overtime.

March Madness Viewer’s Guide: Second Round – Saturday Games

Three double-digit seeds will still be alive and fighting for their tournament lives when the second round games tip off on Saturday around 1:00. As I did yesterday and today, I’ll compile all of the relevant information on each game into a handy-dandy viewer’s guide. After a long week of work, a late night last night hanging out with one of my best friends ever who is in town for a visit, and probably a late night tonight, I’m not planning on waking up early tomorrow.

So I’m posting this now, lest I sleep all the way through to noon. (yeah right, “sleeping in” for me means 7:30 at the latest.)

Anyway, enough blabbering. The first day of the second round, as always, features a number of interesting games and compelling questions:

• Will Ty Lawson be healthy enough to play for North Carolina? Will it matter, considering the Tar Heels are playing a team from the SEC?
• Did Cal-State Northridge wake Memphis (and yawning coach John Calipari, right) up, or will they somnambulate tomorrow and get upended by Maryland?
• Who will win the 3-point battle between AJ Abrams’ Longhorns and Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils?
• Does Michigan have an answer for Blake Griffin?
• Will I continue falling down the ranks in the MSF Bracket Challenge?

All of these questions and more will be answered beginning with UCLA-Villanova tipping off at 1:05 ET. Here is the complete schedule for Saturday:

NCAA Tournament Second Round TV Schedule and Spreads — Saturday Games

East #3 Villanova v East #6 UCLA

• TV Time: 1:05 PM
• Location: Philadelphia, PA
• Announcers: Dick Enberg/Carter Blackburn and Jay Bilas
• Point Spread: Villanova -2 1/2
• Over-Under: 145
• My pick: Villanova

West #2 Memphis v West #10 Maryland

• TV Time: 3:20 PM
• Location: Kansas City, MO
• Announcers: Tim Brando and Mike Gminski
• Point Spread: Memphis -9 1/2
• Over-Under: 131 1/2
• My pick: Maryland

West #1 UConn v West #9 Texas A&M

• TV Time: 3:35 PM
• Location: Philadelphia, PA
• Announcers: Dick Enberg/Carter Blackburn and Jay Bilas
• Point Spread: UConn -10 1/2
• Over-Under: 139 1/2
• My pick: UConn

West #4 Washington v West #5 Purdue

• TV Time: 5:40 PM
• Location: Portland, OR
• Announcers: Kevin Harlan and Dan Bonner
• Point Spread: Washington -1 1/2
• Over-Under: 139 1/2
• My pick: Purdue (I realize this differs from my official bracket, but screw it.)

South #1 North Carolina v South #8 LSU

• TV Time: 5:45 PM ET
• Location: Greensboro, NC
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -11 1/2
• Over-Under: 157 1/2
• My pick: North Carolina

South #2 Oklahoma v South #10 Michigan

• TV Time: 5:50 PM
• Location: Kansas City, MO
• Announcers: Tim Brando and Mike Gminski
• Point Spread: Oklahoma -6 1/2
• Over-Under: 135 1/2
• My pick: Oklahoma

South #4 Gonzaga v South #12 Western Kentucky

• TV Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Location: Portland, OR
• Announcers: Kevin Harlan and Dan Bonner
• Point Spread: Gonzaga -10 1/2
• Over-Under: 143 1/2
• My pick: Gonzaga

East #2 Duke v East #7 Texas

• TV Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Location: Greensboro, NC
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: Duke -7 1/2
• Over-Under: 139 1/2
• My pick: Duke

So, I have mostly favorites winning again with the major exception being Memphis and Maryland. I’m just not a believer in Memphis. They are talented, and they should win, but they are facing a battle-tested Maryland team that knows it can beat anyone on any given night. And Gary Williams has worked tournament magic before. Memphis very well may prove me wrong, but I think this upset will be the story of Saturday.

And Matt Painter’s Purdue Boilermakers, I think, will carry the Big Ten torch into the Sweet 16. I just don’t think Michigan is consistent enough for 40 minutes to beat a team like Oklahoma that has a player the caliber of Blake Griffin.

Purdue, however, is proving that they have a very balanced attack — it is not necessarily explosive, and they are not going to blow many teams out, but they are effective. Purdue plays great defense and can harrass Washington’s guards, and Robbie Hummel really is a difference maker. If he can keep playing 30 minutes, he makes Purdue a really versatile team on both sides of the floor. I hate ‘em, but I respect ‘em. Tom Crean would certainly do well to model the way that Matt Painter has built his team around a core of solid, hard-nosed kids from the state of Indiana.

Enjoy the games tonight and tomorrow everyone. I’m sure I’ll be back at some point with some more random musings. And thanks for all of the traffic and support this week. It has easily been our biggest week ever, and obviously much credit and thanks goes to all of the readers who have visited and continued returning. I’m glad you’ve found our conference tournament and NCAA Tournament coverage useful, and we’ll keep it coming through the Final Four.

Big 12 Tournament Prediction: Will Kansas Ar-buckle Under Four-Peat Pressure?

If you came to this page looking for picks and predictions for the 2009 NCAA Tournament, we’ve got you covered.

Follow the link to our 2009 NCAA Tournament Game-by-Game Picks all the way through the Final Four.

Or, you can view them by region:

• Midwest Region Breakdown and Predictions
• East Region Breakdown and Predictions
• South Region Breakdown and Predictions
• West Region Breakdown and Predictions

And if you actually came to this page to review our 2009 Big 12 Tournament predictions, pardon the interruption and continue reading below.

So, if you didn’t realize from my Big 12 Tournament Preview post earlier this week, I have always thought one thing when I look at Kansas head coach Bill Self: Jon Arbuckle. I was a huge Garfield fan when I was a kid, and Self is the spitting image of Garfield’s toolish owner.

Luckily for Kansas fans though, Self has been much more successful as a college basketball coach than Jon Arbuckle ever was…at anything.

The Jayhawks enter the 2009 Big 12 Tournament as the champions of the last three, and winners of six of the twelve Big 12 tournaments that have taken place. I don’t think many people expected Kansas to have the #1 seed this year, considering what they lost off of last year’s NCAA Championship team, but here they are.

Will Kansas achieve a very impressive Four-Peat? Or will they ar-buckle under the pressure and allow a new Big 12 Tournament champion to emerge?

Before I give you my predictions, let’s break down a few important things first: a) a few links on the Big 12 Tourney and to help you buy tickets to the Big 12 or NCAA Tournament; b) the bracket, which I will update as the games become final; and c) the current odds for each team. Here we go:

Links:

• Big 12 Tournament History: Past Champions and MVPs
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 Big 12 Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

And here are the odds of winning the 2009 Big Ten Championship game for each team (according to OffShoreInsiders.com):

• Oklahoma odds: +140
• Kansas odds: +150
• Missouri odds: +350
• Texas odds: +800
• Texas A&M odds: +800
• Kansas State odds: +1000
• Baylor odds: +2500
• Nebraska odds: +2500
• Field (any other team): +2500

And now, let’s break down the 2009 Big 12 Tournament game-by-game until we come up with a hypothetically predicted Big 12 champion:

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Wednesday Games

What a disappointment Baylor has been this season. Coming off last year’s success, Scott Drew was the favorite of some IU fans to become the new head coach in Bloomington. And with guys like Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn back, Baylor was a trendy pick to be a Top 25 team in 2008-09. However, the Bears are 17-13 (5-11 in conference) after starting the season 12-2. Still, I think the Bears’ ability to score (despite recent struggles), and their postseason experience from last year, makes them a darkhorse in the Big 12 Tournament. Nebraska just beat Baylor 66-62 in each team’s final regular season game, but I think Baylor pulls off the mini-upset here and advances. Baylor wins.

Colorado went 1-15 in conference play and sucks. Texas only went 9-7, but this is a solid 20-10 team that will play in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if this is even a game. Texas wins.

Oklahoma State finished in the four-team quagmire at 9-7, and this is a team that can really score and that is playing well. In their last 7 games, OSU is 6-1 with a four-point loss to Oklahoma being the only blemish. They spanked Iowa State earlier this year and the Cyclones, losers of 5 out of their last 7, have done nothing to show they have improved since the first meeting. Oklahoma State wins.

As a die-hard Hoosiers, Texas Tech has been my 2nd-favorite team since Bob Knight took over there. Now that Pat Knight is the head coach, the Red Raiders remain a favorite of mine. Unfortunately, Tech has sucked this season, going 3-13 in conference play and not stopping anyone on D. A&M beat them twice, scoring 79 each time. Of course, Texas Tech did recently beat Kansas by 19, so anything is possible. I hope Texas Tech proves me wrong, but I think Texas A&M wins.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Thursday Games

Assuming that my Wednesday picks prove true, my darkhorse Baylor will be playing Kansas in Round 2. Can the Bears win? Probably not. Kansas has really played well in conference play, minus the hiccup against Tech. They beat Baylor earlier this year, and while I think the Bears will make this a good game, I don’t think they play enough D to win it. Kansas advances.

Texas would play Kansas State in my hypothetical 2nd round. Both teams went 9-7 in conference play and both teams went 20-10 overall. However, Kansas State beat Texas in their one meeting in Austin. This game is a really toss up, so I’m going with Kansas State — because I live in Dallas and Longhorn fans can be really annoying. Not a very scientific way to pick a victor, I know, but there just is not much separating these two teams.

An Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchup in the 2nd round would be fun. Most people think, and I agree, that Oklahoma is the best team in the conference. Had Blake Griffin not gotten hurt, they might not have dropped that back-to-back set against Texas and Kansas. Still, the Sooners have lost three of their last five. But they beat Oklahoma State twice during the regular season, and are now back at full health. I think Griffin and the Sooners will be on a mission to prove that they are the best team in the Big 12. Oklahoma wins.

Texas A&M-Missouri in the second round would be a rematch of both teams’ final regular season game, in which A&M won by 10 at home. In the two previous games, Missouri lost to Kansas by 25 and then beat Oklahoma by 9. Will the real Tigers please stand up? The Aggies are playing very good defense of late and have won six in a row entering the tourney. I think the Aggies score another win over Missouri and advance to the semi-finals.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Friday Games

The battle of Kansas would ensure if my above predictions prove true. They played twice this season, with Kansas winning by double figures each time. And while I think Kansas State will pull of the win over Texas, the Wildcats have not scored an impressive victory since February 7th at Texas A&M. The Jayhawks will march on to the Big 12 Championship game.

Oklahoma-Texas A&M could be a very good game, and one the Aggies could win. However, Oklahoma won both regular season meetings and this would be A&M’s third game in three days. I think their Big 12 Tournament run ends here, as the Sooners and Blake Griffin will just be too much to overcome with less-than-100% legs.

Big 12 Tournament Championship Game on Saturday

It is the matchup that everyone wants to see: Kansas versus Oklahoma. You know Blake Griffin wants a chance to avenge the February 23rd loss, and a pissed off/motivated Blake Griffin is not a good thing for any opponent. Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12 when healthy, and is still gunning for a #1 seed. I think the beat Kansas, and beat them convincingly to win the Big 12 title.

So there you go — one man’s first impression, quick hit predictions for the 2009 Big 12 Tournament. As always, I suggest that you run to your nearest bookie and bet completely the opposite way, but that’s your call. Game 1 between Nebraska and Baylor tips off in a little over an hour, so I’ll be updating the bracket above as the day and week goes on.