Kansas Jayhawks

So far the Jayhawks have been better than I expected, but depth could be an issue that creeps up while playing their third game in as many days with essentially a seven-man rotation.

In the backcourt, Elijah Johnson is coming off of his best game at KU after scoring 23 points and hitting 4-of-8 from deep against UCLA.  Fellow guard Tyshawn Taylor has scored at least 12 points in each game and dished out six assists again the Bruins, as he and Johnson have done a nice job of teaming up to facilitate the offense.  Both will test Duke’s perimeter defense.

Inside, Thomas Robinson will be a tough matchup for Duke’s big men.  He has logged a double-double in all four of KU’s games, and he has been able to sustain his high level of effort and aggressiveness despite a steep increase in his playing time.  Supporting cast members Travis Releford, Conner Teahan, Jeff Withey, and Justin Wesley have all made key plays for the Jayhawks, but at least a couple of them will need to step up to keep pace with Duke.

Duke Blue Devils

For the Blue Devils, their opening win over Tennessee wasn’t a thing of beauty, but I was really impressed with the team’s defense again Michigan in the semi-finals, particularly their ability to limit Tim Hardaway Jr. in the first half.  They also canned 11-of-21 from three-point range, and as a team, the Blue Devils are now shooting 46.3 percent from deep on the season.  Kansas allowed UCLA to get some open looks from beyond the arc, so that will be a key factor in the championship game.

Duke’s retooled backcourt has performed very well so far, with Seth Curry (16.2 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.7 spg, 58.3 3P%), Austin Rivers (15.2 ppg, 2.5 apg), and Andre Dawkins (10.8 ppg, 44.1 3P%) all making big shots.  Up front, Ryan Kelly is scoring better than 14 points per game and continues to show the ability to extend defenses due to his soft touch from beyond the arc.  Mason Plumlee is nearly averaging a double-double, and his brother Miles is chipping in on the glass as well.  Like Kansas, Duke is essentially playing seven players, so fatigue could be an issue for them as well.

Maui Championship Game Prediction

In the end, I think Duke’s outside shooting, coupled with the fact that they have more potential offensive options than the Jayhawks, will be the difference.

Look for Duke to extend their perfect record in the Maui Invitational with a win Wednesday night.

SDSU’s Steve Fisher unhappy over losing recruit — KUSports.com

“I’m disappointed that a young man who I am very fond of would not feel an obligation to honor an eight-month commitment,” Fisher told the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Young, a 6-foot-8, 215-pound forward who played two years at Loyola Marymount before taking classes at Barstow Community College last school year, signed a financial aid agreement with SDSU in November. He ultimately changed his mind and elected to play his final two seasons at KU.

“And I’m equally disappointed in a program and coach I’m very fond of to pursue a player who made an eight-month commitment,” Fisher added.

Apparently, according to Redditor mrob0t, this is a picture of Bill Self from a fundraiser in Kansas City. The guy who is blurred out in the picture posted it on Facebook, his friend submitted to Reddit, and I present it here for your blinding amazement and enjoyment.

Image source: Imgur via Reddit

I don’t know about you, but when I see this picture, I find myself hypnotized and with an insatiable urge to play basketball for this man. Perhaps that’s the secret: first you get the metallic lime green shirts, then you get the stud recruits and Big 12 championships.

Tom Crean, it’s time for a wardrobe change!

Update: Predictions are in (sort of) below.

Well, one of the teams in the Southwest Regional Final was expected to be here. The other team? Not so much. Heck, the other team wasn’t even expected to be in the Tournament!

But that doesn’t matter now. VCU has shaka’d the world and compelled us all to rethink whether or not the committee was smart to put them in the field of 68.

Sunday afternoon, the second day of Elite 8 games will tip off with #1 seed Kansas against #11 seed VCU. The Jayhawks were sensational in the Sweet 16, but you underestimate the Rams and coach Shaka Smart at your own risk.

Elite 8: Kansas-VCU Game Info

• Kansas-VCU Date: Sunday, March 27th
• Kansas-VCU Tip Time: 2:20 ET
• Kansas-VCU TV: CBS
• Kansas-VCU Announcers: Marv Albert and Steve Kerr
• Kansas-VCU Location: The Alamo Dome in San Antonio, TX
• Kansas-VCU Point Spread: Kansas -11.5
• Kansas-VCU Over-Under: 147

Kansas-VCU Statistical Analysis

Here is a statistical breakdown of the two teams via the ESPN Bracket Predictor.

Kansas-VCU Prediction

One our college basketball-obsessed writers will have a more complete analysis and prediction for this game later today or tomorrow morning (at the latest). Until then, we want to know what you think:

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

I asked our buddy to Twitch, who nailed both the Butler and UCONN wins, to provide some analysis for this game. Here is what he said:

I really have no read whatsoever on the Kansas game. VCU is playing out of their minds, but they really have no reasons to think they could play with KU.

However, that’s what everyone said about George Mason…another 11 seed…who played in the same bracket…when they prepared to play UConn. And wouldn’t u know, George Mason won that game too.

So I am putting nothing past them.

That isn’t really prediction, but hey VCU fans – he’s telling you there’s a chance!

And I suppose I agree. Certainly if I were betting my life or any amount of money on this game (which I’m not), I’d put it on Kansas and expect a double-digit victory. But in this very wild tournament, nothing would shock me. So my official prediction is the Jayhawks to win and cover, as VCU’s thrilling run comes to an end.

But like Twitch said, at this point how can you put anything past Shaka Smart and the Rams?

**********

Nothing serious happened beyond some jawing, but it definitely carried over into the game. Despite Kansas running out to an early win, the game was chippy throughout.

Since it’s a slow early session of games, here is the video in case you didn’t see it:

———-

Coach Arbuckle, what do you say?

It’s okay coach. You’ve been up by 20 all game. And no signs of Faroukmanesh!

One of the most entertaining activities to engage in with a fresh, new bracket is to see all the possible matchups that could reasonably (or unreasonably) materialize. In this post, I run down 10 matchups that I really hope to see happen, and encourage you to share yours as well.

Duke v Michigan in Round of 32

If you watched the Fab 5 documentary on ESPN last night, which was absolutely fantastic, then you know exactly why I’m listing this here. A major theme during the early part of the movie was how much the young Michigan players hated Duke. Jalen Rose even went so far as to say that, at the time, he felt like Duke would only recruit black players who were “Uncle Toms”. Obviously that was 20 years ago, but I wonder if the current young Wolverines will be inspired at all by the words of the most legendary team in their school’s history. People forget how big of a rivalry this once was.

Regardless of the Fab 5 connection, this game is intriguing because of style. Both teams love to hoist up 3-pointers, which means that we could see a very entertaining game if both teams are shooting well. And if the Dookies struggle from downtown, and Tim Hardaway Jr and the Wolves are hitting, there is legit upset potential here. Michigan coach Jon Beilien has done it in March before.

San Diego State v Michigan in Elite 8

While we’re on the subject of the Fab 5, how about Steve Fisher versus the school he led to the 1989 championship and then to two more title games with Webber, Rose, et al? Sure, none of the current Wolverines nor Beilein, have any connection to that time at Michigan, but there would certainly be something fitting about Fisher having to go through Big Blue on his way back to the Final 4.

Plus, if Michigan were to make it to the Elite 8 as an 8 seed, it would mean some craziness happened on their portion of the bracket, which is always fun. The Wolves would have to go through Duke, Arizona, and Texas to get there, and despite how well they have been playing I’m not quite sure they are ready for that yet.

UCONN v Tennessee in Elite 8

And speaking of NCAA sanctions…how about a matchup between Bruce Pearl and Jim Calhoun, two coaches who ran afoul of the NCAA and paid a pretty heavy price for it. Calhoun was suspended for three games while Pearl had to sit out half of the Volunteers’ SEC schedule and still could face more punishment.

And if all of the subplots about NCAA rule breaking got annoying, you could always just turn down the volume and watch the great Kemba Walker go up against Tennessee’s Scotty Hopson. These two are among the most dynamic scorers in the nation, and their teams typically go how they go. If nothing else, watching them trade buckets would be entertaining.

Purdue v Notre Dame in Sweet 16

Purdue and Notre Dame have established themselves as the top two big conference teams in the state of Indiana, with Butler obviously right there nipping at both team’s heels after last year’s tourney run. (As for Indiana…the Cream & Crimson is a sleeping giant, but it needs to wake up and start winning, soon.) Should the Boilers and Irish meet in the Sweet 16, it would present an opportunity for one team to establish bragging rights that certainly cannot hurt when it comes to recruiting the fertile basketball grounds of the Hoosier State.

In addition to the Hoosier State connection, this game would be intriguing simply because these are two really good teams. Purdue has legit stars in E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, and the Irish have Ben Hansbrough, who has emerged as a star this year. Big Ten/Big East bragging rights would also be on the line.

Kansas v Illinois in the Round of 32

This is a pretty easy one. Bill Self built the Illini into a national contender before taking the Kansas job and handing the reins over to Bruce Weber. With Self’s recruits, Weber made a Sweet 16 and a title game appearance his first two years in Champaign. Since then, Weber has not gotten past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and he is starting to the feel the heat. The Illini underachieved this year, despite a pretty talented roster.

As for Self, he’s done quite well for himself in Lawrence. The man can recruit like no other, and he consistently has the Jayhawks among the best teams in the nation. They have won the Big 12 for almost a decade straight, and this year they are looking to avenge last year’s disappointing loss to Northern Iowa. Yet again, Self has a team with title potential.

Illinois certainly has enough talent to compete with Kansas, and a win to move on to the Sweet 16 surely would buy Weber some goodwill with a frustrated fan base. To get it, he’d have to beat Self, whose shadow Weber has not been able to escape since he took over.

Ohio State v North Carolina in the Elite 8

If chalk holds in the East Region, the Buckeyes and Tar Heels will meet up in the Elite 8. From a basketball perspective, this would be a fun matchup featuring the nation’s two best freshman: Jared Sullinger and Harrison Barnes. Watching Sullinger bang down low with Tyler Zeller would be highly entertaining, as would seeing Barnes compete against Ohio State’s terrific wing trio of William Buford-David Lighty-Jon Diebler.

And from a non-basketball perspective, this game would present an opportunity for each basketball team to take the minds of its school’s fans off of turmoil in their respective football programs. North Carolina had the agent scandal and now Ohio State has the Jim Tressel saga, so both schools have dealt and are dealing with pretty significant controversy regarding lack of compliance with NCAA rules. But on this night, all that would matter is basketball, with a Final 4 berth on the line.

Butler v Kansas State in Sweet 16

This would be a rematch of last year’s Elite 8 matchup, which Butler won 63-56 to advance to the Final 4. The Bulldogs no longer have their 2010 star Gordon Heyward, but the Wildcats do still have their #1 option in guard Jacob Pullen. Both of these teams struggled out of the gates this year, but ended the season playing very good basketball. Each team still has enough talent and certainly enough experience to pull a few upsets, making this game somewhat reasonable to hope for, but still very unlikely.

Wisconsin v BYU in the Elite 8

Obviously any game with BYU is intriguing because of the Jimmer factor, but you may be wondering why I’d care about seeing the Cougars play boring ol’ Wisconsin. Simple: Jordan Taylor.

In games I watched this season, no two players were able to absolutely take over portions of games more than Taylor and Jimmer Fredette. Taylor single-handedly pulled Wisconsin back from the brink against Ohio State to hand the Buckeyes their first loss. He also put on one of the great shooting displays I’ve ever seen at Assembly when the Badgers whitewashed Indiana. Surely there would be some mano-a-mano moments between these two great shooters, and it would make for a great Elite 8 matchup.

UAB v Kentucky in the Round of 32

This is a game that only an IU fan could appreciate, and as soon as I remind you that Mike Davis is coaching UAB, the Hoosier fans will start to nod in agony.

Remember this?

Mike Davis’ infamous meltdown occurred during the 2002-2003 season, after the Hoosiers made their unexpected run to the title game. We were ranked in the top 10 at the time, and everybody expected yet another great season. But the loss to Kentucky, punctuated by Davis totally losing his cool, created bad momentum for the season. We finished a disappointing 21-13, 8-8 in the conference, and lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The next year we missed the tourney completely. Two years later, Davis was gone, replaced by He Who Shall Not Be Named, and now here we are missing the tournament for the third straight season after winning three Big Ten games.

And it can all be traced back to the infamous Mike Davis head slap.

Here’s hoping that if UAB can win its first round game over Clemson, and then beat West Virginia, that Coach Davis gives us some more entertaining theatrics against the Wildcats. I may not be able to watch though. Too painful.

And finally, just for shits and giggles…

Indiana State v Michigan State in National Championship Game

The likelihood of this happening is about the same as the likelihood of me ever fulfilling my dream of having a perfect bracket. The Sycamores are the 14th seed in the East and would have to go through Syracuse, North Carolina, Ohio State, and whoever comes out of the West region to make it to the title game. Michigan State is the 10 seed in the Southeast, and while they have a team loaded with Final 4 experience, the Spartans have been far too inconsistent this year to expect a deep March run.

But it sure would be fun, wouldn’t it? Not only would we get to relive Magic and Larry highlights, which are a joy for any basketball fan no matter how often you see them, but this would truly be an incredible Cinderella story combined with a coach in Tom Izzo adding yet another exciting tournament chapter to the storybook of his legendary career.

Think I’ve gone mad for suggesting this one? Well hey, they call it March Madness for a reason…

What potential March Madness matchups do you hope materialize?

Given the current state of the bubble and the apparent reality that no one actually wants to make the tournament, another team or two may well sneak into the field of 68.

As I’ve done previously with the Big Ten and ACC, here’s what you may have missed so far in the Big 12 this season.

Best Team: Kansas (20-1, 5-1)

The Jayhawks are one of the deepest teams in the country with ten players averaging at least 13 minutes.  The Morris twins, Marcus and Markieff, combine for nearly 30 points and 16 boards per game, and the mid-season addition of highly-touted freshman Josh Selby gives them an upgrade at the point.  Selby sat out the first nine games of the season for receiving improper benefits, but he’s knocking down better than 43 percent from beyond the arc since joining the team.

KU’s lone loss came at the hands of Texas and in the wake of the tragedies surrounding forward Thomas Robinson.  In the span of less than a month, Robinson lost both of his grandparents and his mother, who left behind Robinson and his nine-year old sister.

With just three ranked teams left on the schedule, expect the Jayhawks to earn a one seed in March.

Biggest Surprise: Texas (18-3, 6-0)

The aforementioned win by the Longhorns nearly had me listing them as the conference’s best squad.  Sure, many feel like they’ve been reeled in by Texas in the past (I’ve have the X’ed-out brackets to prove it), but this team is doing it differently.  In conference play, the ‘Horns are shutting opponents down to the tune of 0.84 points per possession, the best of any major conference team.

They’re no slouch on the offensive end either.  Sophomore Jordan Hamilton has shown great maturity after a frustrating freshman year and leads the team in both scoring and rebounding while hitting on 42.4 percent from deep.  Freshmen Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph have contributed immediately and meshed well with the team.

Based on their recent play and overall resume, you could make a compelling argument for Texas to earn a one seed as well.

Biggest Disappointment: Kansas State (14-8, 2-5)

The Wildcats were miscast as a Top 10 team to start the season, but the team is completely imploding at this point.  You can blame the loss of leader and point guard Denis Clemente, but this team’s issues run deeper than that.  A series of off-court transgressions and disjointed play on the court would seem to indicate coach Frank Martin has lost this team.

Guard Jacob Pullen said earlier this season that he wouldn’t play if the team made the NIT, and we’re getting pretty close to figuring out whether he’s a man of his word.  The Wildcats do have wins over Virginia Tech, a disappointing Gonzaga squad, and the aforementioned road win at Wazzou, but that won’t be enough if they can’t turn things around within the conference.  Home dates with Kansas and Missouri and a road trip to Texas provide the only opportunities to enhance their case.

Best of the Rest:

Texas A&M (17-3, 4-2)

After knocking off Missouri in OT, the Aggies were 16-1 and one of the nation’s biggest surprises.  They’ve since dropped two of three with the Longhorns looming on Monday.  The win over Mizzou is their best, but the Aggies have also knocked off Washington and Temple, so a decent seed is still a possibility.  A&M does play five of their final nine games away from home, but they face just one ranked team during that stretch.

Missouri (17-4, 3-3)

The Tigers can light up the scoreboard thanks to their running and pressing style of play.  Like Kansas, Missouri has a deep bench with 10 players averaging better than 10 minutes and five scoring in double figures.  With the exception of two games against Kansas over the remainder of the year, Missouri has a favorable schedule and should wind up with a top four seed.

Baylor (14-6, 4-3)

The records don’t look bad, but Baylor’s best win is probably at home versus Colorado.  Five ranked opponents await them from here on out, so they’ll have their chances to earn a bid.

Nebraska (15-5, 3-3)

Saturday’s win over Texas A&M was nice, but losses to Davidson and Texas Tech are flat out ugly.  The Huskers pushed Kansas to the brink, but they need more quality W’s from here on out.

Colorado (14-8, 3-4)

A couple weeks ago the Buffs were sitting at 14-4 and 3-0 in the conference after wins against Missouri and Kansas State.  With four losses in a row, Colorado is reeling as they near the halfway point in league play.

They do have four more chances to knock off a ranked team, but with losses to San Francisco, Harvard, and Oklahoma, the Buffs will need to win at least one or two of them.

Oklahoma State (14-7, 2-5)

Saturday’s overtime loss at Texas Tech might be the final nail in the coffin for the Cowboys.  Outside of that, none of their losses are terrible, but they’ll need to perform well in their four remaining games against ranked teams to reach the .500 mark in conference play.

Follow me on Twitter for more college basketball thoughts.

Lacking any motivation to do serious bubble or conference tournament analysis, I decided to spend a half hour with Google Images and find some of the funniest pictures of college basketball coaches that were available.

The result is what follows, a pictorial celebration of the MAD in March Madness, featuring the coaches of the current top 16 teams in America, as well as five others thrown in for good (see: hilarious) measure.

There are captions…so it’s not like I totally shirked my responsibility for analysis…(and trust me, you’ll see plenty of serious analysis here once the tourney actually starts.)

[Note: Click on the thumbnail to enlarge; click again on the enlarged picture to shrink it and choose another.]

[View with PicLens]

12►

Make sure you click next for the right arrow or right here for the bonus picture. It’s the best one of them all.

Now that you’re done laughing at the most successful college basketball coaches in America, get ready for March Madness 2010. As always, should be a thrilling three weeks.

Or not…if you ask Jim Calhoun.

With that being the case, it seemed more than reasonable that we take a few moments to analyze the most important individuals for the upcoming month. No, I’m not talking about John Wall, Evan Turner, or any of the players; this is college basketball, where any talk of “most important individual” begins and ends with the coaches (who, by way of their massive egos and general self-aggrandizing propensities, wouldn’t have it any other way.)

Today’s discussion will center around one simple question: who is the best active coach in college basketball?

The way I see it, a case can really only be made for eight men to even be in the discussion. I’ll rank all eight, and then you can agree or disagree in the comment section.

As is always the case for discussions like this one, it is important to lay out some parameters and criteria. For example, it is hard to argue with Mike Krzyzewski’s overall resume, but he has not been nearly as successful recently as Roy Williams (until this year of course). And I don’t want this to simply be an overall resume comparison because that is neither fun nor wholly relevant to today.

So here is my criteria:

• I am the athletic director of School A, which plays in a big conference, has a strong basketball tradition, but has fallen on some relatively hard times.
• I can hire any coach currently coaching in college basketball.
• I will be judged in four years on how well the coach I chose did. If he wins a national championship, I automatically receive a contract extension. If he doesn’t then NCAA Tournament success, conference championships, and program reputation and integrity will be taken into account when determining my fate.

As previously mentioned, I see only eight coaches who can reasonably be included in this discussion. To provide a frame of reference and some important historical data points, here are my top 8 best active coaches in college basketball (listed in no particular order):

Best Active College Basketball Coaches By the Numbers

* – John Calipari has reached two Finals Fours (one with UMass, one with Memphis) but both were later vacated.
^ – Does not include 2009-10 season

[Note: guys who just missed the cut include: Ben Howland (no titles, current struggles); Jay Wright (not enough sustained success); Mark Few (no big conference experience, no titles); and some others. ***Note: See end of post for an addendum to this list.]

Now let’s rank ‘em, going in reverse order because it’s more fun that way.

8. John Calipari, Kentucky

Do I bring my personal biases against John Calipari to this debate? You betcha. But the facts are the facts: Calipari is the only coach out of these eight to never have won a title, and he has also never officially be to a Final Four because both times he went it was vacated.

So while Calipari (thanks to his Worldwide Wes ties) might be the best choice for a quick turnaround, he has not proven that he can lead a champion, and he certainly has not proven that he can build a basketball program in a way that will not get it into trouble down the road. I’ll pass.

7. Jim Calhoun, UCONN

Calhoun is a great coach and is among the small handful of active coaches (Donovan, Williams, Coach K) who have won two National Championships. However, with his current health problems and the accusations of impropriety at UCONN over the years (the story about Stanley Robinson that broke during last year’s NCAA Tournament, the Sweet 16 that was vacated from 1996), I’m a little wary of choosing Calhoun over the other names still there for the taking.

6. Billy Donovan, Florida

Donovan made this groups because he, like Calhoun, is among the very small handful of active coaches who have won two National Championships. Obviously a coach gets huge extra credit in any grading scale for achieving the ultimate goal multiple times. Donovan has also won better than 70% of his games and made another Final Four, so despite his team’s recent struggles, he cannot simply be chalked up as a two-year wonder. He did, however, ride one recruiting class to the majority of his success, so I’d like to see Donovan be a little bit more consistent before I’m ready to choose him over the other terrific names in this discussion.

5. Jim Boeheim, Syracuse

As Boeheim’s career progresses, and as he passes legend after legend on the all-time victories list, he becomes more and more of a legend in his own right. Boeheim’s career numbers are staggering, and the fact that he has done it all while coaching at the same school since 1976 is even more staggering.

Critics of Boeheim will say that he has had three teams this decade make only the NIT and that he has also dealt with NCAA violations (1993). However, Boeheim has taken three teams all the way to the NCAA Championship game and is one Keith Smart jump shot away from having two titles.

It’s a tough call between Donovan and Boeheim, two coaches have proven they can take a program to the top but also that they are not immune from occasional dips. I’ll give Boeheim the edge because of his much more meaty resume and extra credit because of his program’s higher level of success over the last couple of years.

Now it gets really tough…

4. Mike Kryzewski, Duke

If we were ranking the best active college basketball coaches simply by overall resume, Coach K would obviously be #1. He has more wins, more Sweet 16s, more Final Fours, and more titles than any other active coach. Plus, he continues to field competitive teams on a year-in, year-out basis and do so without even a whiff of scandal or impropriety.

But here is my question about Coach K when it comes to comparing him to the others on this list based future results: is he still capable of building a national champion?

Coach K last won a title in 2001. Since then, he has made five Sweet 16s and a Final Four. This is obviously quite good. However, the last three seasons include only one Sweet 16 and an 11-loss 2007 that resulted in a 6th place finish in the ACC. While this year’s Duke team has flown under the radar nationally despite its solid 25-4 record, I don’t hear much talk about them as a title contender.

Obviously you can never go wrong having Mike Kryzewksi lead your basketball program, but I think the three remaining choices are all – at this stage in their respective careers – more optimum choices if we are looking at the hypothetical four year scenario laid out at the beginning of this post.

3. Tom Izzo, Michigan State

There are going to be Duke fans and others who will be incredulous that I have Izzo over Coach K. I understand that. Coach K’s career numbers clearly dwarf Izzo’s and if you go back to the beginning of this decade, there is very little separating them. I give Izzo the edge over Coach K, just like I gave Boeheim the edge over Donovan, because he has had more immediately recent success.

Yes, Izzo’s teams in 2006 and 2007 finished in the middle of the pack of a mediocre Big Ten and made early NCAA Tournament exits. However, those teams built the foundation for the Spartans’ Sweet 16 appearance in 2008 and their run to the NCAA title game in 2009. This year, Izzo once again has a team that, despite an up and down regular season, is seen by many as a threat to pull it all together at the right time and reach another Final Four.

And why not? Izzo’s five Final Four appearances in 15 seasons as a head coach is incredible. It is by far the best ratio of any active coach. Add to all of that his consistency (no NIT appearances since his second season in East Lansing) and the lack of any scandal surrounding his program, and in my mind he’s a better choice today, for the next four years, than Coach K would be.

Oh, and Izzo gets a tiny little bit of extra credit for the fact that the student section at the Breslin Center goes by the awesome, eponymous moniker “The Izzone”. You have to be a badass to have a student section named after you. (But you have to earned it with some sustained success and deep tourney runs, so the “Paint Crew” in West Lafayette still sucks.)

While I would take Izzo over Coach K, he is not quite as good a choice as these next two guys.

2. Roy Williams, North Carolina

Without the Tar Heels’ unexpected and precipitous plunge this season, it would be hard to keep Ol’ Roy out of the top spot. He left Lawrence with the reputation of a guy who “couldn’t win the big one” and has now ended all of that talk by delivering two National Championships to Chapel Hill since 2005. He has also made two Elite 8s and a third Final Four since taking over North Carolina. Additionally, we cannot forget that despite not being able to take Kansas all the way to a championship, he did make two Final Fours (including a title game appearance) during his last two seasons with the Jayhawks.

But what the hell is going on this season?

North Carolina, with a roster full of McDonald’s All-Americans, is 15-14, 4-10 in ACC play, and will miss the Big Dance without an unexpected victory in the ACC Tournament. It is hard to explain what has happened to the Tar Heels, and it has often seemed like even Williams has been at a loss. Still, results are results, and if we’re going to give Williams credit for his wins we must also hold his feet to the fire for a season that, by all accounts, should not be happening.

Williams has another top notch recruiting class coming in next season, led by the highly touted Harrison Barnes, so the expectation is that he and the Tar Heels won’t be down for long. And perhaps we all should have expected more of a drop off for Carolina with so many veterans departing from last year’s title team. If the Tar Heels struggle again next year, it’s reasonable to start worrying. Until then, Williams has earned a mulligan, especially considering the fact that he is one year removed from coaching one of the more dominant NCAA Tournament runs we’ve seen in a long time.

1. Bill Self, Kansas

It must be nice to be a Kansas basketball fan.

The rock-chockers were understandably upset when Roy Williams left after taking the Jayhawks to the title game in 2003, but since then his replacement has won at a ridiculous .824 clip while delivering three Elite 8 appearances and a national title. That he has his team poised for another deep tourney run this year, while Williams endures the toughest season of his career, is what gives Bill Self the edge and the title – at the moment - of best coach in college basketball today.

Self has won everywhere he has been and, like most coaches, needed the foundation of one of college basketball’s most storied traditions to reach his full potential and the promised land. While Self has only won one National Championship thus far, it is important to remember the primary criteria set forth at the beginning of this article. I set out looking for the coach that I’d want for the next four years. I could not find a better choice.

Kansas has lost only 20 games since the start of the 2006-07 season under Self and has not been eliminated before the Elite 8. He also won or tied for the Big 12 regular season title six out of his seven seasons (including this year) in Lawrence. With experience in the backcourt (Sherron Colllins), a terrific big man (Cole Aldrich), and an exciting freshman (Xavier Henry), plus many other talented players, Kansas is rightfully on the short list of NCAA Tournament favorites for this year.

His relative youth, consistency, recruiting prowess, tournament success, and conference dominance make Bill Self the choice. I cannot believe that I am bestowing such an honor on someone who was once the coach in Champaign, but it is hard to argue with his resume and potential.

Now it’s your turn. Chime in with your vote and use the comment section to voice your agreement or disagreement.

Update 3/3: Digg commenters brought up a few going points. Gary Williams should have at least been listed in the “just missed it” section. Also, as one commenter asked, where is Rick Pitino?

Pitino’s recent personal troubles notwithstanding, he has certainly proven to worthy of inclusion in this list. To give Pitino his due, I will copy/paste what was written at Digg, because it makes the case quite well…although I don’t agree that he would be a better choice than Self or Boeheim at this stage in all of their respective careers.

It’s complete insanity that Rick Pitino is not on this list.

He has been to the Final Four 5 times. He has taken 3 different teams to the Final Four (no one else has ever done that). He has guided his last two Louisville teams to the Elite Eight. Louisville won the regular season and conference championships last year in the Big East (in what many called the season for a conference ever). He has never had to abandon a Final Four (Calipari had had to do that twice). I would put him on this list ahead of Self, Calhoun, Boeheim and the completely insane Calipari. How could you ever pick a corrupt coach like Calipari to guide your program. If you don’t think that Kentucky is going to get nailed for this the illegality of the 2009 recruiting class… you’re naive. The man is a proven cheater.

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* – John Calipari photo credit: At The Box
* – Tom Izzo photo credit: SlamOnline.com
* – Roy Williams crouching photo credit: CoolSpotters.com
* – Bill Self shocked photo credit: CollegeInsider.com
* – Bill Self cutting down the nets photo credit: SI.com

This post will analyze the Kansas-Michigan State game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Now that the Thursday Sweet 16 games all have previews, it is time to turn our attention towards Friday. And from a Midwest perspective, it is pretty easy to see which game has the most relevance: Kansas-Michigan State.

The Jayhawks are attempting to defend their 2008 National Championship with a bevy of new faces, while the Spartans are looking to reach the Final Four in Detroit so they can battle for the 2009 National Championship in their own backyard.

I fully expected Michigan State to be here, as I predicted them to reach the Final Four before the tournament started. They have not disappointed, handling Robert Morris in round one and then outlasting a very talented USC team in round two.

My prognostication for Kansas was…well…not so good.

I predicted that Kansas would lose to North Dakota State in round one and that it would be the upset of of the tournament. While the game was competitive, Kansas controlled the final ten minutes and advanced. Then they beat Dayton to reach the Sweet 16 and further kill my bracket.

While both teams were tested in round two, they will each play perhaps their toughest game of the season on Friday night. Tom Izzo and Bill Self are two experienced coaches, each with National Championships on their resume, who took over proud programs from coaching legends and have maintained, if not improved, the success and stature of their programs.

None of the other seven Sweet 16 games feature the combined star power and success of the two coaches in this game. That is just one of many reasons why this is the game I am most looking forward to on Friday.

Here are the particulars:

Michigan State-Kansas Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 9:37 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Michigan State -2 1/2
• Over-Under: 138 1/2
• My prediction: Michigan State

With most of the other games that I have used the Game Predictor to analyze, I’ve had a pretty good idea about who would be predicted the winner. I did not think that Duke and Memphis would be quite as favored by the Game Predictor as they were against Villanova and Missouri, respectively; but, I can’t say I was necessarily surprised. As I head over to the Game Predictor now to enter the stats and find out its prediction for this game, I have no clue.

My best guess would be that Michigan State ends up favored by 3 or 4 points because they have a higher seed and probably played a tougher schedule. But who knows. (If that ends up being the Game Predictor output, don’t accuse me of cheating. I haven’t looked yet!)

Here we go, the Game Predictor analysis for the five statistical categories that we have used to analyze each of the other Sweet 16 games:

• Offensive Efficiency: Michigan State – 1.058 | Kansas – 1.080
• Defensive Efficiency: Michigan State – 0.925 | Kansas – 0.919
• Assist/TO Ratio: Michigan State – 1.167 | Kansas – 1.083
• Free Throw %: Michigan State – 0.692 | Kansas – 0.725
• Defensive Field Goal %: Michigan State – 0.414 | Kansas – 0.382

And now the expected winner, which — surprise, surprise — went to the higher seed despite the lower seed winning the majority of the five categories:

• Odds to Win Game: Michigan State – 55.1% | Kansas – 44.9%
• Most Likely Final Score: Michigan State – 69.5 | Kansas – 67.6
• Odds to Cover Spread (KU +1.5): Michigan State – 52.7% | Kansas – 47.3%
• Pick Confidence: 2 Stars

So, looks my prediction was pretty close to accurate — about one point off.

It is interesting to note that the pick confidence was only two stars. It was at least three or four in the predictions for the Thursday games, showing just how evenly matched these two teams are. However, when I look at what the Game Predictor says, I have to say that I agree — for the most part — on the Michigan State victory.

I think.

Maybe.

Sophomore point guard Kalin Lucas is the engine that makes Michigan State go. He is averaging 14.6 points and 4.5 assists per game on the season. He is an outstanding player and the matchup between he and Sherron Collins is going to be great. Collins, the main ballhandler for the Jayhawks, averages 18.9 points and 5.0 assists on the year. I wonder if Michigan State will put defensive stalwart Travis Walton on Collins? Either way, if you can shut down Lucas or Collins, you can seriously thwart the Spartans’ or Jayhawks’ attack. I look for both guys to rise to the occasion and have very good games battling mano-a-mano.

The X-factor for Kansas is Cole Aldrich. He can be spectacular, as he has been so far in the tournaments, totaling 36 points and 33 rebounds over two games. However, take note: Kansas’ last three losses all came in games in which Aldrich scored 8 points. Not coincidentally, those were his three lowest point outputs of the season and two of them came against non-tourney teams Texas Tech and Baylor. When Aldrich is playing well, he provides an excellent dimension to their attack and makes the Jayhawks one of the best teams in America. When he struggles, so does Kansas. Fortunately for Jayhawk fans, Aldrich has played pretty consistently outside of those few poor performances.

The X-factor for Michigan State is, as always, Raymar Morgan. He is as talented as anyone on the floor, but as Big Ten fans know well, you never really know when Raymar Morgan will actually show up. When Michigan State beat Kansas earlier this year, Morgan scored 13 points and had 8 rebounds. That should be an average night for him, but it is one of the best games he’s had since January 1. He has battled injuries and inconsistency, but Michigan State needs him to step up and be a force Friday night. He played well against Robert Morris but disappeared against USC. I don’t think Michigan State can repeat their victory over Kansas if Morgan gives them less than the 13-8 line he gave them on January 10th in East Lansing.

If it comes down to whose X-factor do I trust more? I have to say Aldrich.

When these two teams played in January, Michigan State won 75-62. Lucas and Collins both had great games, which I expect again on Friday night. The difference in the game was the production of Morgan. If he can offset Aldrich, as he basically did in January, then Michigan State has a great chance to win because I think they are deeper and can get scoring contributions from more sources than Kansas. If Collins and Aldrich are on their game, and if Kalin Lucas is forced to be a one-man show without a prominent sidekick to step up and shoulder more than just an ancillary piece of the burden, Michigan State is in trouble.

The more I think about this game, the less I am starting to trust Michigan State.

If it were me, I’d definitely take Kansas with the points. The Spartans won’t be playing this one in the friendly confines of the Breslin Center (thanks Jen!) and Kansas is a much better team now than they were then.

Straight up? It’s close, but I’ll stick with my original pick of Michigan State, but with a very low confidence level. I won’t be surprised either way.

I’ll only be surprised if this game does not come down to the final few possessions.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

Note: This post is from 2009. To view our 2010 March Madness coverage, use the following links:

• 2010 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket Breakdown
• March Madness 2010 Schedule, Sites, and Tickets
• MSF Bracket Challenge
• Mens NCAA Tournament Bracket, TV Schedule, Announcers, Spreads
• Midwest Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• East Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• South Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• West Region Bracket Picks, Predictions, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers
• History of Final Four in Indianapolis
• Women’s NCAA Tournament Schedule, Sites, Tickets

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There is only one thing more fun than watching the NCAA Tournament brackets be announced live on Selection Sunday: filling them in over the next few days to arrive at your own personal Final Four and, ultimately, national champion.

We all know that the NCAA Tournament is essentially a crapshoot. Oh sure, there are historical trends that make sense to follow (#1 seeds will make the Sweet 16, for example) and a wide spectrum of personal college basketball knowledge can help you see a Cinderella before any of the Thursday games tip-off.

But, we all see it every year: we enter into a family pool, all the guys have been watching every basketball game since January and have been poring over the numbers, and then Mom decides to pick “the underdogs and the teams with the prettiest uniforms” and ends up winning the bracket.

If something like this has never happened to you during March Madness you are either lying or Joe Lunardi. And hell, Joe Lunardi is only proven to be good at picking the brackets before they are announced. I’m sure he runs into the same problems as the rest of us when trying to predict the outcome of actual tournament.

Because of the randomness of it all, I usually just eyeball my brackets and go with first impressions. Some years I pick a lot of upsets, some years I don’t. And usually I do three, four, five different brackets in an effort to diversify my picks and give myself, theoretically, a better chance of at least winning one pool.

Well now that I have this blog, and have decided it is a good idea to publish every infinitesimal and meaningless thought I have about sports, I feel like there is more at stake with my picks this year. So I decided that I wanted to do just one bracket, and to have a specific system I used for filling it out. (Plus, I took one look at this year’s bracket and realized that so many of the games seemed like toss-ups, I needed some kind of analysis I trusted to fall back on and break the ties.)

Let me be clear right off the bat: In no way do I endorse the following system as the best NCAA Tournament bracket system possible. Nor am I wholeheartedly convinced that it is even necessarily good; nor, truth be told, did it really require a whole lot of in-depth thought to come up with.

But…after devising the system and using it to go through the entire bracket, the results were as follows:

• Higher seeds, especially the top-line seeds, won most of the games. This is usually what happens, and what I expected, so I was pleased.
• One #12 seed beat a #5 seed. This always happens, so again, I was pleased.
• A darkhorse Sweet 16 team (13th seed or lower) emerged. There is often one very low seed that makes it out of the first weekend; but rarely more than one or two.
• A #2 or #3 seed lost in the first weekend. Out of 8 such teams, there is usually one or two gone before the Sweet 16. This held true in my predictions.
• The Elite 8 and Final Four is dominated by high seeds. Again, while the first few rounds of the tournament make headlines because of upsets, when the dust settles for the final three rounds, the majority of the teams are usually the teams with the best seeds.

So, I did not fudge my system in any way during the selection process, and the results were what I “hoped” to get. By this I mean that my system did not place 4 #10 seeds in the Final Four, or just give me all favorites winning. It actually matched up pretty well with typical tournament trends that we see from year to year.

Before I jump into my actual picks, here is a description of my subjective-objective system, which, if it proves successful this year, may be my new system for picking the NCAA Tournament moving forward.

StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

The JRod Subjective-Objective System for Picking the NCAA Tournament (Which Hopefully is More Successful Than Throwing Darts or my Mom’s Picks)

Why do I call it a “subjective-objective” system? Because I sat down and defined what kinds of quantifiable team stats mean the most to me when deciding what team will beat another. My choice of metrics was obviously very subjective. But once that choice was made, there was very little room for any other subjective decision-making, with one caveat — which I will get to in a bit.

Here are the metrics I used to measure each matchup on a head-to-head basis:

• Regular Season Road Record
• Tournament Seed
• Strength of Schedule
• Team FT%
• Team Turnovers per Game
• Experience of Guards

A few quick notes about the metrics:

1. I understand that these are not perfect. Road record, for instance, does not take into account a team’s record on neutral sites, which is perhaps an even more accurate reflection of how they will do on neutral sites in the NCAA Tournament. There are plenty of other problems and holes in this system. Feel free to point them out in the comments if you wish, but just know that I already know they exist.
2. Turnovers per game does not take into account assist/turnover ratios, number of possessions per game, style of play, etc. Comparing TO/game in a vacuum across teams is obviously not completely “fair” or accurate.
3. To measure the experience of the the guards, I used the information available at the CollegeHoopsNet.com team tournament capsules. For each team’s projected lineup, every guard was assigned a value of 1, 2, 3, or 4, based on their class. Freshman were a 1, Sophomores a 2, Juniors a 3, and Seniors a 4. The sum was then divided by the number of guards to get an average. Obviously the higher the better. Again, this is not perfect, but I like teams with experienced, older guards, so it works for my subjective statistical metrics.
4. For tournament seed, the better seed got the advantage. Why? Because more often than not, the better seed wins — except in the case of 8/9 matchups, where 9 seeds actually win 53% of the time. Hence, to play the averages, the 9 seed got the seed advantage in 8/9 games. But I thought this was important because the selection committee spent hours upon hours comparing these teams, and I generally trust their ability to tier the teams.
5. In the case of a tie (i.e. each team winning three categories) the team with the better seed wins the tie-breaker and moves on. Now, here’s the caveat to complete objectivity: If there is a tie between two teams whose seeds are adjacent (a #2 seed playing a #3 seed or a #1 seed, for instance) then I use my own personal gut feelings/bias to break the tie. This only happened a few times. 95% of the games were “picked” using the objective results of the system.

If anything is unclear, leave me a question in the comments and I’ll try to clear it up. Again, I am not claiming that this system was particularly well thought out or perfect. However, the relative simplicity of the stats did allow me to compile everything into a spreadsheet in about 2.5 hours, it does take into account the traits that I personally value, and the results ended up producing a bracket I would have been happy to end with if I had just run straight through it off the top of my head.

If you are interested, here is the actual bracket breakdown spreadsheet I used so you can see the actual data. You will notice that I did not list the #16 seeds. Sorry guys, but I knew nothing would make me pick a #16 over a #1. Perhaps that will burn me, but I feel fairly confident going with history on that one.

All that said, let’s break down the regions:

Midwest Region Predictions

First Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville
• #9 Siena over #8 Ohio State
• #5 Utah over #12 Arizona
• #4 Wake Forest over #13 Cleveland State
• #6 West Virginia over #11 Dayton
• #14 North Dakota St over #3 Kansas
• #7 Boston College over #10 USC
• #2 Michigan State over #15 Robert Morris

Siena and Ohio State were actually pretty evenly matched up, with Siena having a slight 3-2-1 advantage. Siena has a much better record on the road and more experienced guards, so I feel comfortable about that one. But it’s an 8/9 game so who the hell knows.

The one that will jump off the page is #14 North Dakota State over #3 Kansas. NDSU went 10-4 on the road this year, makes just under 74% of their free throws, has all senior guards, and only turns the ball over 11.3 times. Their Strength of Schedule is obviously not very good, but they played outstanding against their level of competition. Considering Kansas’ poor play very late in the season, and their relative youth, I am not afraid of this upset pick. If I had to bet money, I’d obviously put it on the Jayhawks, but now I won’t be at all shocked if they go down, much to the dismay of Bill Self.

Second Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #9 Siena
• #5 Utah over #4 Wake Forest
• #14 North Dakota State over #6 West Virginia
• #2 Michigan State over #7 Boston College

I like Utah over Wake Forest because of the experience factor, the fact that Utah turns the ball over more than two times per game less, and Utah’s ability to hit free throws at a 78.2% clip. Wake Forest clearly has the more talented team though; so again, this is a game where me being wrong would not be surprising at all.

And once again, you see my tourney darkhorse North Dakota State winning again. Considering the numbers I stated above, does this surprise you? West Virginia shoots less than 70% from the line, has relative inexperience at the guard position (a 2.5 score to NDSU’s 4) and turns the ball over slightly more.

Sweet 16 Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #5 Utah
• #2 Michigan State over #14 North Dakota State

Louisville beats Utah across the board, except for free throw shooting. The Michigan State-North Dakota State game was actually a tie by the categories. Michigan State wins in road record, seed, and strength of schedule, but falls short in FT shooting, guard experience, and TO/game. Non-adjacent favored seeds win out though, so NDSU’s Cinderalla story comes to an end.

Elite 8 Pick – Midwest Region

• #2 Michigan State over #1 Louisville

Honestly, this surprised me a little bit. When I first sat down to look at the brackets, the Spartans were a team I looked at as potentially being ripe for an early upset. But looking deeper, many of their metrics, at least with respect to my personal basketball biases, make them a tournament-ready team. Add in the extra motivation of the Final Four being in Detroit, and I can see this happening.

The Spartans win 3-2-1, with the teams tying in guard experience and Louisville besting Michigan State in seeding and TO/game. Michigan State’s other advantages were by slim margins, which is to be expected. I think this would be a great regional final that could go either way (a refrain you will probably hear repeated as we move forward), but as a Big Ten fan I would love to see Tom Izzo and the boys make it to Detroit.

West Region Predictions

First Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn
• #9 Texas A&M over #8 BYU
• #5 Purdue over #12 Northern Iowa
• #4 Washington over #13 Mississippi State
• #6 Marquette over #11 Utah State
• #3 Missouri over #14 Cornell
• #7 California over #10 Maryland
• #2 Memphis over #15 Cal State Northridge

No real surprises. BYU-Texas A&M was a 3-3 tie based on the metrics, but I chose Texas A&M because they have slightly more experienced guard play and played a slightly tougher schedule. Again, total toss-up, could go either way — but you have to pick one!

Second Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #9 Texas A&M
• #4 Washington over #5 Purdue
• #6 Marquette over #3 Missouri
• #7 California over #2 Memphis

The top part of the bracket goes according to seed. I actually thought Purdue would go a little farther when I first embarked on this analysis, but Washington just edges them out. The surprises come in the bottom half of the bracket.

Marquette defies seeding to beat Missouri, but I don’t really consider this an upset. Even without Dominic James, Marquette has vast experience in its backcourt, they don’t turn the ball over much, and they make 72% of their free throws.

Memphis losing this early surprised me a little, but I do not think they are nearly as good as they were last year. Cal actually bests Memphis in FT%, SOS, guard experience, and TO/game. I think Memphis’ inexperience and lower level of competition since January hurts them and they make an early exit. I have no qualms going with the stats and picking Cal here. (Side note: Is John Calipari screaming, crying, or yawning in that picture?)

Sweet 16 Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #4 Washington
• #6 Marquette over #7 California

UConn is very strong across the board with respect to the stats I chose, and they pretty much dominate Washington. Marquette-Cal is a relatively even matchup, but the experience and slightly better TO/game numbers give Marquette the edge.

Elite 8 Pick – West Region

• #1 UConn over #6 Marquette

An all Big East regional final in the West would be great. The problem for Marquette is that UConn is just a little bit better at a couple more categories. UConn went 10-1 on the road this year and has an all-senior backcourt that includes the great AJ Price (who I have been a big fan of ever since he dismantled Indiana last season). Plus, while this is not really taken into account statistically, having a 7’3 big man down low in Hasheem Thabeet obviously gives UConn a dimension that most teams do not have. I am comfortable sending the Huskies to the Final Four.

East Region Predictions

First Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh
• #8 Oklahoma State over #9 Tennessee
• #12 Wisconsin over #5 Florida State
• #4 Xavier over #13 Portland State
• #6 UCLA over #11 Virginia Commonwealth
• #3 Villanova over #14 American U.
• #7 Texas over #10 Minnesota
• #2 Duke over #15 Binghamton

Oklahoma State-Tennessee was a 3-3 tie. However, one of the categories Tennessee “won” was being a 9 seed over an 8 seed. Considering the fact that OSU has more experienced guards, turns the ball over less, and shoots better from the line, I like them to win. And for goodness sakes, 9 seeds only win 3% more than 8 seeds, so it’s not like the 9 over 8 advantage should determine every one of these matchups.

Wisconsin is my #12 seed that pulls the upset. The Badgers burned me in the Big Ten Tournament (I picked them to win it) and this pick scares me a little bit considering how well Florida State played in the ACC Tournament. However, Wisconsin has more experienced guards (by class anyway) and turns the ball over a staggering 5.6 times less per game. I actually look at this game as a toss-up, but I feel comfortable going with the Badgers in the upset.

Interesting note: VCU over UCLA is a trendy first round upset pick. Led by former tournament star Eric Maynor (remember VCU’s upset of Duke a couple years ago?) a lot of people, including Jay Bilas, think VCU could/will beat UCLA. However, this was the only first round game (minus the 1/16 battles, which I did not analyze) in which one team won all six categories — and it was UCLA doing the winning. I had actually anticipated picking VCU, but based on the analysis, I now feel pretty good picking the Bruins.

Which, of course, means that VCU will still probably win. Oh well. Such is March Madness.

Second Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #8 Oklahoma State
• #12 Wisconsin over #4 Xavier
• #3 Villanova over #6 UCLA
• #2 Duke over #7 Texas

Well, here I go again banking my credibility on Bo Ryan and the Badgers. Their experience, protection of the ball, FT%, and SOS all trump Xavier. This worries me a bit because Wisconsin has been so up and down this year, but they do play the kind of basketball I respect, and have made noise in the tournament before. By no means would I be shocked to see Wisconsin lose here (or in the first round for that matter), but I’m sticking with the Badgers to move onto the Sweet 16 and help restore some cred to the Big Ten.

Sweet 16 Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #12 Wisconsin
• #3 Villanova over #2 Duke

Halelujah, Pittsburgh beats Wisconsin. I was really worried that I might have devised a system that would choose this game in a way I would have a really hard time justifying. But Pitt was better on the road and has more experience in the backcourt. It ended up a 3-3 tie, with Pitt’s tremendous seed advantage tipping the scales.

The Villanova-Duke matchup was 3-3, which should go to the higher seed. However, because it’s a 2-3 matchup, I gave myself the wiggle room to be subjective in my choice. Duke is playing well, but I love ‘Nova’s backcourt and I just don’t see this Duke team as being built for a long tourney run. ‘Nova moves on for another all Big East Regional Final.

Elite 8 Pick – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #3 Villanova

As you can tell, my subjective choices of metrics obviously prove that I am a fan of the Big East’s brand of basketball. Through three regions, I have chosen five Big East schools to make the Elite 8. Villanova is far superior at the line, but Pittsburgh faced a tougher schedule and has more experience guards that turn the ball over less. Jamie Dixon and the Panthers move on to Detroit.

South Region Predictions

First Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina
• #9 Butler over #8 LSU
• #5 Illinois over #12 Western Kentucky
• #4 Gonzaga over #13 Akron
• #6 Arizona State over #11 Temple
• #3 Syracuse over #14 Stephen F. Austin
• #7 Clemson over #10 Michigan
• #2 Oklahoma over #15 Morgan State

A pretty much by-the-seed first round in the South. There are a few games I would not be surprised to see go the other way (WKU over Illinois, Michigan over Clemson, for example) but I have no issues with any of these games. Butler and LSU was close, and LSU actually has more experience and turns the ball over less, but Butler actually played a tougher schedule and was better on the road. I like rooting for the Bulldogs anyway, so I’m glad this turned out how it did.

Second Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #9 Butler
• #4 Gonzaga over #5 Illinois
• #3 Syracuse over #6 Arizona State
• #2 Oklahoma over #7 Clemson

Chalk reigns again as the top four seeds all advance. Illinois versus Gonzaga was very close, but I definitely would have picked Gonzaga in this one without the stats, so I feel good that it turned out this way — especially with Illinois not having Chester Frazier. Syracuse-Arizona State was won by the Orange based on their seed, but I would not be shocked to see ASU win. Syracuse turns the ball over a lot and is not good at all from the FT line. But I do love their backcourt and think Jonny Flynn is one of the ten best players in America and could lead my team anytime.

Sweet 16 Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #4 Gonzaga
• #2 Oklahoma over #3 Syracuse

Chalk again. And neither is really all that close. Surely Ty Lawson would be healthy (or healthy enough) by the Sweet 16, and I think UNC would need him to beat a really good Gonzaga team. Oklahoma beats Syracuse in everything but SOS. And honestly? It’s about time a Big East team did not make the Elite 8. With a healthy Blake Griffin all year, Oklahoma probably gets a #1 seed. This is not a surprise to see them advance so far.

Elite 8 Pick – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #2 Oklahoma

The Tar Heels actually beat Oklahoma in every category. Before looking at the stats I wondered who I would pick just based on the eyeball test. But it’s hard to argue with a system that I devised saying North Carolina is better in every category. The Tar Heels head to the Final Four.

Final Four Predictions

• #1 UConn over #2 Michigan State
• #1 North Carolina over #1 Pittsburgh

UConn bests Michigan State in four categories, and I think the Huskies are the better and more consistent team overall. The Spartans valiant run to Detroit ends here.

North Carolina-Pitt is very close statistically, with Pitt actually holding the edge in guard experience and TO/game. I would not be surprised to see Pitt advance and make it an all Big East championship game, but North Carolina was a better team on the road and is almost a full 10% better at the FT line. This would be a GREAT Final Four game, with the slight edge going to the Tar Heels.

2009 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Game Prediction

• #1 UConn over #1 North Carolina

Based on the metrics, UConn wins this 3-2-1. Each category is very close (save for UNC’s wide edge in FT%) but UConn’s slight advantage in backcourt experience and TO/game gives them the edge. Add in the questions surrounding Ty Lawson’s health and I’ll take this.

If I had just eyeballed the brackets, I’m not sure either one of these teams makes my title game, but it’s pretty obvious that they are proficient in the areas I value.

I’m not a big Jim Calhoun fan, although I think he’s obviously a great coach. But I have to say that banking my entire bracket on a team led by AJ Price, and that has Hasheem Thabeet down low, does not make me overly nervous. UConn was generally considered one of the top two teams in the Big East all year (with Pitt — and then Louisville came on strong at the end) and the Big East was clearly the best conference in America. It is fitting then that a Big East team ends up winning it all.

My official one-and-only bracket for the 2009 Tournament:

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StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

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So there you have it — my official subjective-objective predictions for the 2009 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament. All this really means is that I now have more time and thought invested into getting my bracket horribly and drastically wrong. But I will say this: I have more confidence heading into the first Thursday of March Madness than ever before.

I fully expect that confidence to be completely eroded by Thursday night.

If you came to this page looking for picks and predictions for the 2009 NCAA Tournament, we’ve got you covered.

Follow the link to our 2009 NCAA Tournament Game-by-Game Picks all the way through the Final Four.

Or, you can view them by region:

• Midwest Region Breakdown and Predictions
• East Region Breakdown and Predictions
• South Region Breakdown and Predictions
• West Region Breakdown and Predictions

And if you actually came to this page to review our 2009 Big 12 Tournament predictions, pardon the interruption and continue reading below.

So, if you didn’t realize from my Big 12 Tournament Preview post earlier this week, I have always thought one thing when I look at Kansas head coach Bill Self: Jon Arbuckle. I was a huge Garfield fan when I was a kid, and Self is the spitting image of Garfield’s toolish owner.

Luckily for Kansas fans though, Self has been much more successful as a college basketball coach than Jon Arbuckle ever was…at anything.

The Jayhawks enter the 2009 Big 12 Tournament as the champions of the last three, and winners of six of the twelve Big 12 tournaments that have taken place. I don’t think many people expected Kansas to have the #1 seed this year, considering what they lost off of last year’s NCAA Championship team, but here they are.

Will Kansas achieve a very impressive Four-Peat? Or will they ar-buckle under the pressure and allow a new Big 12 Tournament champion to emerge?

Before I give you my predictions, let’s break down a few important things first: a) a few links on the Big 12 Tourney and to help you buy tickets to the Big 12 or NCAA Tournament; b) the bracket, which I will update as the games become final; and c) the current odds for each team. Here we go:

Links:

• Big 12 Tournament History: Past Champions and MVPs
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 Big 12 Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

And here are the odds of winning the 2009 Big Ten Championship game for each team (according to OffShoreInsiders.com):

• Oklahoma odds: +140
• Kansas odds: +150
• Missouri odds: +350
• Texas odds: +800
• Texas A&M odds: +800
• Kansas State odds: +1000
• Baylor odds: +2500
• Nebraska odds: +2500
• Field (any other team): +2500

And now, let’s break down the 2009 Big 12 Tournament game-by-game until we come up with a hypothetically predicted Big 12 champion:

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Wednesday Games

What a disappointment Baylor has been this season. Coming off last year’s success, Scott Drew was the favorite of some IU fans to become the new head coach in Bloomington. And with guys like Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn back, Baylor was a trendy pick to be a Top 25 team in 2008-09. However, the Bears are 17-13 (5-11 in conference) after starting the season 12-2. Still, I think the Bears’ ability to score (despite recent struggles), and their postseason experience from last year, makes them a darkhorse in the Big 12 Tournament. Nebraska just beat Baylor 66-62 in each team’s final regular season game, but I think Baylor pulls off the mini-upset here and advances. Baylor wins.

Colorado went 1-15 in conference play and sucks. Texas only went 9-7, but this is a solid 20-10 team that will play in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if this is even a game. Texas wins.

Oklahoma State finished in the four-team quagmire at 9-7, and this is a team that can really score and that is playing well. In their last 7 games, OSU is 6-1 with a four-point loss to Oklahoma being the only blemish. They spanked Iowa State earlier this year and the Cyclones, losers of 5 out of their last 7, have done nothing to show they have improved since the first meeting. Oklahoma State wins.

As a die-hard Hoosiers, Texas Tech has been my 2nd-favorite team since Bob Knight took over there. Now that Pat Knight is the head coach, the Red Raiders remain a favorite of mine. Unfortunately, Tech has sucked this season, going 3-13 in conference play and not stopping anyone on D. A&M beat them twice, scoring 79 each time. Of course, Texas Tech did recently beat Kansas by 19, so anything is possible. I hope Texas Tech proves me wrong, but I think Texas A&M wins.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Thursday Games

Assuming that my Wednesday picks prove true, my darkhorse Baylor will be playing Kansas in Round 2. Can the Bears win? Probably not. Kansas has really played well in conference play, minus the hiccup against Tech. They beat Baylor earlier this year, and while I think the Bears will make this a good game, I don’t think they play enough D to win it. Kansas advances.

Texas would play Kansas State in my hypothetical 2nd round. Both teams went 9-7 in conference play and both teams went 20-10 overall. However, Kansas State beat Texas in their one meeting in Austin. This game is a really toss up, so I’m going with Kansas State — because I live in Dallas and Longhorn fans can be really annoying. Not a very scientific way to pick a victor, I know, but there just is not much separating these two teams.

An Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchup in the 2nd round would be fun. Most people think, and I agree, that Oklahoma is the best team in the conference. Had Blake Griffin not gotten hurt, they might not have dropped that back-to-back set against Texas and Kansas. Still, the Sooners have lost three of their last five. But they beat Oklahoma State twice during the regular season, and are now back at full health. I think Griffin and the Sooners will be on a mission to prove that they are the best team in the Big 12. Oklahoma wins.

Texas A&M-Missouri in the second round would be a rematch of both teams’ final regular season game, in which A&M won by 10 at home. In the two previous games, Missouri lost to Kansas by 25 and then beat Oklahoma by 9. Will the real Tigers please stand up? The Aggies are playing very good defense of late and have won six in a row entering the tourney. I think the Aggies score another win over Missouri and advance to the semi-finals.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Friday Games

The battle of Kansas would ensure if my above predictions prove true. They played twice this season, with Kansas winning by double figures each time. And while I think Kansas State will pull of the win over Texas, the Wildcats have not scored an impressive victory since February 7th at Texas A&M. The Jayhawks will march on to the Big 12 Championship game.

Oklahoma-Texas A&M could be a very good game, and one the Aggies could win. However, Oklahoma won both regular season meetings and this would be A&M’s third game in three days. I think their Big 12 Tournament run ends here, as the Sooners and Blake Griffin will just be too much to overcome with less-than-100% legs.

Big 12 Tournament Championship Game on Saturday

It is the matchup that everyone wants to see: Kansas versus Oklahoma. You know Blake Griffin wants a chance to avenge the February 23rd loss, and a pissed off/motivated Blake Griffin is not a good thing for any opponent. Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12 when healthy, and is still gunning for a #1 seed. I think the beat Kansas, and beat them convincingly to win the Big 12 title.

So there you go — one man’s first impression, quick hit predictions for the 2009 Big 12 Tournament. As always, I suggest that you run to your nearest bookie and bet completely the opposite way, but that’s your call. Game 1 between Nebraska and Baylor tips off in a little over an hour, so I’ll be updating the bracket above as the day and week goes on.

This afternoon we add one more to the list: the 2009 Big 12 Tournament Preview.

Before we get into the specifics, here is your quick preview of the 2009 Big 12 Conference Mens Basketball Tournament:

• What: 13th Big 12 Men Basketball Tournament
• Location: Ford Center — Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Dates: March 11 – March 14
• Official Website: 2009 Big 12 Tournament
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 Big 12 Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

This year’s Big 12 Tournament features a #1 seed that on the one hand you expect to be at the top — considering they have won the Big 12 Tournament three years in a row and six times overall. However, this year’s Big 12 Tournament #1 seed is also unlikely considering their standing in the preseason polls. I am talking, of course, about defending Big 12 and National Champion Kansas, which features my choice for National Coach of the Year: Bill Self.

Here are a few reasons why I think Bill Self should be National Coach of the Year:

• Preseason polls may be relatively meaningless, but they are good gauge of how much proven talent a team has returning from one year to the next. The Jayhawks were ranked #24 in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll, and #23 in the preseason Coaches Top 25 Poll. Currently, Kansas is ranked #9 in both the AP and Coaches Top 25 polls.
• Kansas lost three of its most important players off of last year’s National Championship team: Darrell Arthur, Mario Chalmers, and 2008 Big 12 Tournament MOP Brandon Rush. Yet, Self has rebuilt Kansas around the junior-sophomore-freshman trio of Sherron Collins-Cole Aldrich-Tyshawn Taylor.
• It is always harder to repeat, as the cliche goes. Yet the Jawhawks battled through a tough Big 12 conference to capture the regular season crown and are poised to get as high as a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a strong showing.

The best coaches in college basketball are the ones who can continuously reload and always have their team competing at the highest level. Florida and Billy Donovan repeated with the same team two years in a row — but look at Florida now. They have not been a Top 25 team two years running. Bill Self has a completely different team than last season and Kansas heads into its conference tournament with the #1 seed.

Don’t get me wrong: Jeff Capel of Oklahoma and Mike Anderson at Missouri have also done tremendous jobs this season, as the three top teams in the Big 12 all outperformed preseason expectations. As always, there are plenty of worthy candidates for National Coach of the Year, but considering what he lost and the disparity between the preseason expectations and in-season success, I have to give my vote to Bill Self.

He looks like Jon Arbuckle from the Garfield comics, but he coaches as well as anyone in the business right now.

So, how does the 2009 Big 12 Tournament shape up? Here is the TV schedule and bracket, based on the final 2009 Big 12 Standings:

2009 Big 12 Tournament TV Schedule and Bracket

[Note: Follow the link to view the Big 12 Tournament bracket at the official Big 12 Tournament website.]

The Big 12 Tournament is a lot like the Big 10 tournament: usually very exciting, but without the storied history of longer-standing conference tournaments like the ACC and SEC. Still, as the Big 12 Tournament approaches, historical perspective is always helpful. Below, you will find a breakdown of each of the 12 previous Big 12 Conference Tournaments. As you can see, the 12 years are bookended by Kansas three-peats. Can they make it a four-peat this year? We shall see.

Big 12 Tournament History: Champions and MOPs

You can also find a breakdown of the Won/Loss record for each team at the Big 12 Tournament wikipedia page.

Enjoy the tournament. An Oklahoma title probably gives the Sooners a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas probably locks up a #2 seed with a Big 12 Tournament title. But perhaps Missouri, Texas, or a first day darkhorse can spoil the top dogs’ fun and provide a drama next Saturday.