Sweet 16: Kansas-Michigan State Preview, Prediction, and Analysis

This post will analyze the Kansas-Michigan State game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Now that the Thursday Sweet 16 games all have previews, it is time to turn our attention towards Friday. And from a Midwest perspective, it is pretty easy to see which game has the most relevance: Kansas-Michigan State.

The Jayhawks are attempting to defend their 2008 National Championship with a bevy of new faces, while the Spartans are looking to reach the Final Four in Detroit so they can battle for the 2009 National Championship in their own backyard.

I fully expected Michigan State to be here, as I predicted them to reach the Final Four before the tournament started. They have not disappointed, handling Robert Morris in round one and then outlasting a very talented USC team in round two.

My prognostication for Kansas was…well…not so good.

I predicted that Kansas would lose to North Dakota State in round one and that it would be the upset of of the tournament. While the game was competitive, Kansas controlled the final ten minutes and advanced. Then they beat Dayton to reach the Sweet 16 and further kill my bracket.

While both teams were tested in round two, they will each play perhaps their toughest game of the season on Friday night. Tom Izzo and Bill Self are two experienced coaches, each with National Championships on their resume, who took over proud programs from coaching legends and have maintained, if not improved, the success and stature of their programs.

None of the other seven Sweet 16 games feature the combined star power and success of the two coaches in this game. That is just one of many reasons why this is the game I am most looking forward to on Friday.

Here are the particulars:

Michigan State-Kansas Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 9:37 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Michigan State -2 1/2
• Over-Under: 138 1/2
• My prediction: Michigan State

With most of the other games that I have used the Game Predictor to analyze, I’ve had a pretty good idea about who would be predicted the winner. I did not think that Duke and Memphis would be quite as favored by the Game Predictor as they were against Villanova and Missouri, respectively; but, I can’t say I was necessarily surprised. As I head over to the Game Predictor now to enter the stats and find out its prediction for this game, I have no clue.

My best guess would be that Michigan State ends up favored by 3 or 4 points because they have a higher seed and probably played a tougher schedule. But who knows. (If that ends up being the Game Predictor output, don’t accuse me of cheating. I haven’t looked yet!)

Here we go, the Game Predictor analysis for the five statistical categories that we have used to analyze each of the other Sweet 16 games:

• Offensive Efficiency: Michigan State – 1.058 | Kansas – 1.080
• Defensive Efficiency: Michigan State – 0.925 | Kansas – 0.919
• Assist/TO Ratio: Michigan State – 1.167 | Kansas – 1.083
• Free Throw %: Michigan State – 0.692 | Kansas – 0.725
• Defensive Field Goal %: Michigan State – 0.414 | Kansas – 0.382

And now the expected winner, which — surprise, surprise — went to the higher seed despite the lower seed winning the majority of the five categories:

• Odds to Win Game: Michigan State – 55.1% | Kansas – 44.9%
• Most Likely Final Score: Michigan State – 69.5 | Kansas – 67.6
• Odds to Cover Spread (KU +1.5): Michigan State – 52.7% | Kansas – 47.3%
• Pick Confidence: 2 Stars

So, looks my prediction was pretty close to accurate — about one point off.

It is interesting to note that the pick confidence was only two stars. It was at least three or four in the predictions for the Thursday games, showing just how evenly matched these two teams are. However, when I look at what the Game Predictor says, I have to say that I agree — for the most part — on the Michigan State victory.

I think.

Maybe.

Sophomore point guard Kalin Lucas is the engine that makes Michigan State go. He is averaging 14.6 points and 4.5 assists per game on the season. He is an outstanding player and the matchup between he and Sherron Collins is going to be great. Collins, the main ballhandler for the Jayhawks, averages 18.9 points and 5.0 assists on the year. I wonder if Michigan State will put defensive stalwart Travis Walton on Collins? Either way, if you can shut down Lucas or Collins, you can seriously thwart the Spartans’ or Jayhawks’ attack. I look for both guys to rise to the occasion and have very good games battling mano-a-mano.

The X-factor for Kansas is Cole Aldrich. He can be spectacular, as he has been so far in the tournaments, totaling 36 points and 33 rebounds over two games. However, take note: Kansas’ last three losses all came in games in which Aldrich scored 8 points. Not coincidentally, those were his three lowest point outputs of the season and two of them came against non-tourney teams Texas Tech and Baylor. When Aldrich is playing well, he provides an excellent dimension to their attack and makes the Jayhawks one of the best teams in America. When he struggles, so does Kansas. Fortunately for Jayhawk fans, Aldrich has played pretty consistently outside of those few poor performances.

The X-factor for Michigan State is, as always, Raymar Morgan. He is as talented as anyone on the floor, but as Big Ten fans know well, you never really know when Raymar Morgan will actually show up. When Michigan State beat Kansas earlier this year, Morgan scored 13 points and had 8 rebounds. That should be an average night for him, but it is one of the best games he’s had since January 1. He has battled injuries and inconsistency, but Michigan State needs him to step up and be a force Friday night. He played well against Robert Morris but disappeared against USC. I don’t think Michigan State can repeat their victory over Kansas if Morgan gives them less than the 13-8 line he gave them on January 10th in East Lansing.

If it comes down to whose X-factor do I trust more? I have to say Aldrich.

When these two teams played in January, Michigan State won 75-62. Lucas and Collins both had great games, which I expect again on Friday night. The difference in the game was the production of Morgan. If he can offset Aldrich, as he basically did in January, then Michigan State has a great chance to win because I think they are deeper and can get scoring contributions from more sources than Kansas. If Collins and Aldrich are on their game, and if Kalin Lucas is forced to be a one-man show without a prominent sidekick to step up and shoulder more than just an ancillary piece of the burden, Michigan State is in trouble.

The more I think about this game, the less I am starting to trust Michigan State.

If it were me, I’d definitely take Kansas with the points. The Spartans won’t be playing this one in the friendly confines of the Breslin Center (thanks Jen!) and Kansas is a much better team now than they were then.

Straight up? It’s close, but I’ll stick with my original pick of Michigan State, but with a very low confidence level. I won’t be surprised either way.

I’ll only be surprised if this game does not come down to the final few possessions.

Who do you think will win the Sweet 16 matchup between Kansas and Michigan State?

• Michigan State
• Kansas

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Mens Tournament Bracket Predictions: Spartans Reach Detroit, but Year of the Big East Continues

There is only one thing more fun than watching the NCAA Tournament brackets be announced live on Selection Sunday: filling them in over the next few days to arrive at your own personal Final Four and, ultimately, national champion.

We all know that the NCAA Tournament is essentially a crapshoot. Oh sure, there are historical trends that make sense to follow (#1 seeds will make the Sweet 16, for example) and a wide spectrum of personal college basketball knowledge can help you see a Cinderella before any of the Thursday games tip-off.

But, we all see it every year: we enter into a family pool, all the guys have been watching every basketball game since January and have been poring over the numbers, and then Mom decides to pick “the underdogs and the teams with the prettiest uniforms” and ends up winning the bracket.

If something like this has never happened to you during March Madness you are either lying or Joe Lunardi. And hell, Joe Lunardi is only proven to be good at picking the brackets before they are announced. I’m sure he runs into the same problems as the rest of us when trying to predict the outcome of actual tournament.

Because of the randomness of it all, I usually just eyeball my brackets and go with first impressions. Some years I pick a lot of upsets, some years I don’t. And usually I do three, four, five different brackets in an effort to diversify my picks and give myself, theoretically, a better chance of at least winning one pool.

Well now that I have this blog, and have decided it is a good idea to publish every infinitesimal and meaningless thought I have about sports, I feel like there is more at stake with my picks this year. So I decided that I wanted to do just one bracket, and to have a specific system I used for filling it out. (Plus, I took one look at this year’s bracket and realized that so many of the games seemed like toss-ups, I needed some kind of analysis I trusted to fall back on and break the ties.)

Let me be clear right off the bat: In no way do I endorse the following system as the best NCAA Tournament bracket system possible. Nor am I wholeheartedly convinced that it is even necessarily good; nor, truth be told, did it really require a whole lot of in-depth thought to come up with.

But…after devising the system and using it to go through the entire bracket, the results were as follows:

• Higher seeds, especially the top-line seeds, won most of the games. This is usually what happens, and what I expected, so I was pleased.
• One #12 seed beat a #5 seed. This always happens, so again, I was pleased.
• A darkhorse Sweet 16 team (13th seed or lower) emerged. There is often one very low seed that makes it out of the first weekend; but rarely more than one or two.
• A #2 or #3 seed lost in the first weekend. Out of 8 such teams, there is usually one or two gone before the Sweet 16. This held true in my predictions.
• The Elite 8 and Final Four is dominated by high seeds. Again, while the first few rounds of the tournament make headlines because of upsets, when the dust settles for the final three rounds, the majority of the teams are usually the teams with the best seeds.

So, I did not fudge my system in any way during the selection process, and the results were what I “hoped” to get. By this I mean that my system did not place 4 #10 seeds in the Final Four, or just give me all favorites winning. It actually matched up pretty well with typical tournament trends that we see from year to year.

Before I jump into my actual picks, here is a description of my subjective-objective system, which, if it proves successful this year, may be my new system for picking the NCAA Tournament moving forward.

StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

The JRod Subjective-Objective System for Picking the NCAA Tournament (Which Hopefully is More Successful Than Throwing Darts or my Mom’s Picks)

Why do I call it a “subjective-objective” system? Because I sat down and defined what kinds of quantifiable team stats mean the most to me when deciding what team will beat another. My choice of metrics was obviously very subjective. But once that choice was made, there was very little room for any other subjective decision-making, with one caveat — which I will get to in a bit.

Here are the metrics I used to measure each matchup on a head-to-head basis:

• Regular Season Road Record
• Tournament Seed
• Strength of Schedule
• Team FT%
• Team Turnovers per Game
• Experience of Guards

A few quick notes about the metrics:

1. I understand that these are not perfect. Road record, for instance, does not take into account a team’s record on neutral sites, which is perhaps an even more accurate reflection of how they will do on neutral sites in the NCAA Tournament. There are plenty of other problems and holes in this system. Feel free to point them out in the comments if you wish, but just know that I already know they exist.
2. Turnovers per game does not take into account assist/turnover ratios, number of possessions per game, style of play, etc. Comparing TO/game in a vacuum across teams is obviously not completely “fair” or accurate.
3. To measure the experience of the the guards, I used the information available at the CollegeHoopsNet.com team tournament capsules. For each team’s projected lineup, every guard was assigned a value of 1, 2, 3, or 4, based on their class. Freshman were a 1, Sophomores a 2, Juniors a 3, and Seniors a 4. The sum was then divided by the number of guards to get an average. Obviously the higher the better. Again, this is not perfect, but I like teams with experienced, older guards, so it works for my subjective statistical metrics.
4. For tournament seed, the better seed got the advantage. Why? Because more often than not, the better seed wins — except in the case of 8/9 matchups, where 9 seeds actually win 53% of the time. Hence, to play the averages, the 9 seed got the seed advantage in 8/9 games. But I thought this was important because the selection committee spent hours upon hours comparing these teams, and I generally trust their ability to tier the teams.
5. In the case of a tie (i.e. each team winning three categories) the team with the better seed wins the tie-breaker and moves on. Now, here’s the caveat to complete objectivity: If there is a tie between two teams whose seeds are adjacent (a #2 seed playing a #3 seed or a #1 seed, for instance) then I use my own personal gut feelings/bias to break the tie. This only happened a few times. 95% of the games were “picked” using the objective results of the system.

If anything is unclear, leave me a question in the comments and I’ll try to clear it up. Again, I am not claiming that this system was particularly well thought out or perfect. However, the relative simplicity of the stats did allow me to compile everything into a spreadsheet in about 2.5 hours, it does take into account the traits that I personally value, and the results ended up producing a bracket I would have been happy to end with if I had just run straight through it off the top of my head.

If you are interested, here is the actual bracket breakdown spreadsheet I used so you can see the actual data. You will notice that I did not list the #16 seeds. Sorry guys, but I knew nothing would make me pick a #16 over a #1. Perhaps that will burn me, but I feel fairly confident going with history on that one.

All that said, let’s break down the regions:

Midwest Region Predictions

First Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville
• #9 Siena over #8 Ohio State
• #5 Utah over #12 Arizona
• #4 Wake Forest over #13 Cleveland State
• #6 West Virginia over #11 Dayton
• #14 North Dakota St over #3 Kansas
• #7 Boston College over #10 USC
• #2 Michigan State over #15 Robert Morris

Siena and Ohio State were actually pretty evenly matched up, with Siena having a slight 3-2-1 advantage. Siena has a much better record on the road and more experienced guards, so I feel comfortable about that one. But it’s an 8/9 game so who the hell knows.

The one that will jump off the page is #14 North Dakota State over #3 Kansas. NDSU went 10-4 on the road this year, makes just under 74% of their free throws, has all senior guards, and only turns the ball over 11.3 times. Their Strength of Schedule is obviously not very good, but they played outstanding against their level of competition. Considering Kansas’ poor play very late in the season, and their relative youth, I am not afraid of this upset pick. If I had to bet money, I’d obviously put it on the Jayhawks, but now I won’t be at all shocked if they go down, much to the dismay of Bill Self.

Second Round Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #9 Siena
• #5 Utah over #4 Wake Forest
• #14 North Dakota State over #6 West Virginia
• #2 Michigan State over #7 Boston College

I like Utah over Wake Forest because of the experience factor, the fact that Utah turns the ball over more than two times per game less, and Utah’s ability to hit free throws at a 78.2% clip. Wake Forest clearly has the more talented team though; so again, this is a game where me being wrong would not be surprising at all.

And once again, you see my tourney darkhorse North Dakota State winning again. Considering the numbers I stated above, does this surprise you? West Virginia shoots less than 70% from the line, has relative inexperience at the guard position (a 2.5 score to NDSU’s 4) and turns the ball over slightly more.

Sweet 16 Picks – Midwest Region

• #1 Louisville over #5 Utah
• #2 Michigan State over #14 North Dakota State

Louisville beats Utah across the board, except for free throw shooting. The Michigan State-North Dakota State game was actually a tie by the categories. Michigan State wins in road record, seed, and strength of schedule, but falls short in FT shooting, guard experience, and TO/game. Non-adjacent favored seeds win out though, so NDSU’s Cinderalla story comes to an end.

Elite 8 Pick – Midwest Region

• #2 Michigan State over #1 Louisville

Honestly, this surprised me a little bit. When I first sat down to look at the brackets, the Spartans were a team I looked at as potentially being ripe for an early upset. But looking deeper, many of their metrics, at least with respect to my personal basketball biases, make them a tournament-ready team. Add in the extra motivation of the Final Four being in Detroit, and I can see this happening.

The Spartans win 3-2-1, with the teams tying in guard experience and Louisville besting Michigan State in seeding and TO/game. Michigan State’s other advantages were by slim margins, which is to be expected. I think this would be a great regional final that could go either way (a refrain you will probably hear repeated as we move forward), but as a Big Ten fan I would love to see Tom Izzo and the boys make it to Detroit.

West Region Predictions

First Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn
• #9 Texas A&M over #8 BYU
• #5 Purdue over #12 Northern Iowa
• #4 Washington over #13 Mississippi State
• #6 Marquette over #11 Utah State
• #3 Missouri over #14 Cornell
• #7 California over #10 Maryland
• #2 Memphis over #15 Cal State Northridge

No real surprises. BYU-Texas A&M was a 3-3 tie based on the metrics, but I chose Texas A&M because they have slightly more experienced guard play and played a slightly tougher schedule. Again, total toss-up, could go either way — but you have to pick one!

Second Round Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #9 Texas A&M
• #4 Washington over #5 Purdue
• #6 Marquette over #3 Missouri
• #7 California over #2 Memphis

The top part of the bracket goes according to seed. I actually thought Purdue would go a little farther when I first embarked on this analysis, but Washington just edges them out. The surprises come in the bottom half of the bracket.

Marquette defies seeding to beat Missouri, but I don’t really consider this an upset. Even without Dominic James, Marquette has vast experience in its backcourt, they don’t turn the ball over much, and they make 72% of their free throws.

Memphis losing this early surprised me a little, but I do not think they are nearly as good as they were last year. Cal actually bests Memphis in FT%, SOS, guard experience, and TO/game. I think Memphis’ inexperience and lower level of competition since January hurts them and they make an early exit. I have no qualms going with the stats and picking Cal here. (Side note: Is John Calipari screaming, crying, or yawning in that picture?)

Sweet 16 Picks – West Region

• #1 UConn over #4 Washington
• #6 Marquette over #7 California

UConn is very strong across the board with respect to the stats I chose, and they pretty much dominate Washington. Marquette-Cal is a relatively even matchup, but the experience and slightly better TO/game numbers give Marquette the edge.

Elite 8 Pick – West Region

• #1 UConn over #6 Marquette

An all Big East regional final in the West would be great. The problem for Marquette is that UConn is just a little bit better at a couple more categories. UConn went 10-1 on the road this year and has an all-senior backcourt that includes the great AJ Price (who I have been a big fan of ever since he dismantled Indiana last season). Plus, while this is not really taken into account statistically, having a 7′3 big man down low in Hasheem Thabeet obviously gives UConn a dimension that most teams do not have. I am comfortable sending the Huskies to the Final Four.

East Region Predictions

First Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh
• #8 Oklahoma State over #9 Tennessee
• #12 Wisconsin over #5 Florida State
• #4 Xavier over #13 Portland State
• #6 UCLA over #11 Virginia Commonwealth
• #3 Villanova over #14 American U.
• #7 Texas over #10 Minnesota
• #2 Duke over #15 Binghamton

Oklahoma State-Tennessee was a 3-3 tie. However, one of the categories Tennessee “won” was being a 9 seed over an 8 seed. Considering the fact that OSU has more experienced guards, turns the ball over less, and shoots better from the line, I like them to win. And for goodness sakes, 9 seeds only win 3% more than 8 seeds, so it’s not like the 9 over 8 advantage should determine every one of these matchups.

Wisconsin is my #12 seed that pulls the upset. The Badgers burned me in the Big Ten Tournament (I picked them to win it) and this pick scares me a little bit considering how well Florida State played in the ACC Tournament. However, Wisconsin has more experienced guards (by class anyway) and turns the ball over a staggering 5.6 times less per game. I actually look at this game as a toss-up, but I feel comfortable going with the Badgers in the upset.

Interesting note: VCU over UCLA is a trendy first round upset pick. Led by former tournament star Eric Maynor (remember VCU’s upset of Duke a couple years ago?) a lot of people, including Jay Bilas, think VCU could/will beat UCLA. However, this was the only first round game (minus the 1/16 battles, which I did not analyze) in which one team won all six categories — and it was UCLA doing the winning. I had actually anticipated picking VCU, but based on the analysis, I now feel pretty good picking the Bruins.

Which, of course, means that VCU will still probably win. Oh well. Such is March Madness.

Second Round Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #8 Oklahoma State
• #12 Wisconsin over #4 Xavier
• #3 Villanova over #6 UCLA
• #2 Duke over #7 Texas

Well, here I go again banking my credibility on Bo Ryan and the Badgers. Their experience, protection of the ball, FT%, and SOS all trump Xavier. This worries me a bit because Wisconsin has been so up and down this year, but they do play the kind of basketball I respect, and have made noise in the tournament before. By no means would I be shocked to see Wisconsin lose here (or in the first round for that matter), but I’m sticking with the Badgers to move onto the Sweet 16 and help restore some cred to the Big Ten.

Sweet 16 Picks – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #12 Wisconsin
• #3 Villanova over #2 Duke

Halelujah, Pittsburgh beats Wisconsin. I was really worried that I might have devised a system that would choose this game in a way I would have a really hard time justifying. But Pitt was better on the road and has more experience in the backcourt. It ended up a 3-3 tie, with Pitt’s tremendous seed advantage tipping the scales.

The Villanova-Duke matchup was 3-3, which should go to the higher seed. However, because it’s a 2-3 matchup, I gave myself the wiggle room to be subjective in my choice. Duke is playing well, but I love ‘Nova’s backcourt and I just don’t see this Duke team as being built for a long tourney run. ‘Nova moves on for another all Big East Regional Final.

Elite 8 Pick – East Region

• #1 Pittsburgh over #3 Villanova

As you can tell, my subjective choices of metrics obviously prove that I am a fan of the Big East’s brand of basketball. Through three regions, I have chosen five Big East schools to make the Elite 8. Villanova is far superior at the line, but Pittsburgh faced a tougher schedule and has more experience guards that turn the ball over less. Jamie Dixon and the Panthers move on to Detroit.

South Region Predictions

First Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina
• #9 Butler over #8 LSU
• #5 Illinois over #12 Western Kentucky
• #4 Gonzaga over #13 Akron
• #6 Arizona State over #11 Temple
• #3 Syracuse over #14 Stephen F. Austin
• #7 Clemson over #10 Michigan
• #2 Oklahoma over #15 Morgan State

A pretty much by-the-seed first round in the South. There are a few games I would not be surprised to see go the other way (WKU over Illinois, Michigan over Clemson, for example) but I have no issues with any of these games. Butler and LSU was close, and LSU actually has more experience and turns the ball over less, but Butler actually played a tougher schedule and was better on the road. I like rooting for the Bulldogs anyway, so I’m glad this turned out how it did.

Second Round Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #9 Butler
• #4 Gonzaga over #5 Illinois
• #3 Syracuse over #6 Arizona State
• #2 Oklahoma over #7 Clemson

Chalk reigns again as the top four seeds all advance. Illinois versus Gonzaga was very close, but I definitely would have picked Gonzaga in this one without the stats, so I feel good that it turned out this way — especially with Illinois not having Chester Frazier. Syracuse-Arizona State was won by the Orange based on their seed, but I would not be shocked to see ASU win. Syracuse turns the ball over a lot and is not good at all from the FT line. But I do love their backcourt and think Jonny Flynn is one of the ten best players in America and could lead my team anytime.

Sweet 16 Picks – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #4 Gonzaga
• #2 Oklahoma over #3 Syracuse

Chalk again. And neither is really all that close. Surely Ty Lawson would be healthy (or healthy enough) by the Sweet 16, and I think UNC would need him to beat a really good Gonzaga team. Oklahoma beats Syracuse in everything but SOS. And honestly? It’s about time a Big East team did not make the Elite 8. With a healthy Blake Griffin all year, Oklahoma probably gets a #1 seed. This is not a surprise to see them advance so far.

Elite 8 Pick – South Region

• #1 North Carolina over #2 Oklahoma

The Tar Heels actually beat Oklahoma in every category. Before looking at the stats I wondered who I would pick just based on the eyeball test. But it’s hard to argue with a system that I devised saying North Carolina is better in every category. The Tar Heels head to the Final Four.

Final Four Predictions

• #1 UConn over #2 Michigan State
• #1 North Carolina over #1 Pittsburgh

UConn bests Michigan State in four categories, and I think the Huskies are the better and more consistent team overall. The Spartans valiant run to Detroit ends here.

North Carolina-Pitt is very close statistically, with Pitt actually holding the edge in guard experience and TO/game. I would not be surprised to see Pitt advance and make it an all Big East championship game, but North Carolina was a better team on the road and is almost a full 10% better at the FT line. This would be a GREAT Final Four game, with the slight edge going to the Tar Heels.

2009 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Game Prediction

• #1 UConn over #1 North Carolina

Based on the metrics, UConn wins this 3-2-1. Each category is very close (save for UNC’s wide edge in FT%) but UConn’s slight advantage in backcourt experience and TO/game gives them the edge. Add in the questions surrounding Ty Lawson’s health and I’ll take this.

If I had just eyeballed the brackets, I’m not sure either one of these teams makes my title game, but it’s pretty obvious that they are proficient in the areas I value.

I’m not a big Jim Calhoun fan, although I think he’s obviously a great coach. But I have to say that banking my entire bracket on a team led by AJ Price, and that has Hasheem Thabeet down low, does not make me overly nervous. UConn was generally considered one of the top two teams in the Big East all year (with Pitt — and then Louisville came on strong at the end) and the Big East was clearly the best conference in America. It is fitting then that a Big East team ends up winning it all.

My official one-and-only bracket for the 2009 Tournament:

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StubHub: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

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So there you have it — my official subjective-objective predictions for the 2009 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament. All this really means is that I now have more time and thought invested into getting my bracket horribly and drastically wrong. But I will say this: I have more confidence heading into the first Thursday of March Madness than ever before.

I fully expect that confidence to be completely eroded by Thursday night.

Big 12 Tournament Prediction: Will Kansas Ar-buckle Under Four-Peat Pressure?

If you came to this page looking for picks and predictions for the 2009 NCAA Tournament, we’ve got you covered.

Follow the link to our 2009 NCAA Tournament Game-by-Game Picks all the way through the Final Four.

Or, you can view them by region:

• Midwest Region Breakdown and Predictions
• East Region Breakdown and Predictions
• South Region Breakdown and Predictions
• West Region Breakdown and Predictions

And if you actually came to this page to review our 2009 Big 12 Tournament predictions, pardon the interruption and continue reading below.

So, if you didn’t realize from my Big 12 Tournament Preview post earlier this week, I have always thought one thing when I look at Kansas head coach Bill Self: Jon Arbuckle. I was a huge Garfield fan when I was a kid, and Self is the spitting image of Garfield’s toolish owner.

Luckily for Kansas fans though, Self has been much more successful as a college basketball coach than Jon Arbuckle ever was…at anything.

The Jayhawks enter the 2009 Big 12 Tournament as the champions of the last three, and winners of six of the twelve Big 12 tournaments that have taken place. I don’t think many people expected Kansas to have the #1 seed this year, considering what they lost off of last year’s NCAA Championship team, but here they are.

Will Kansas achieve a very impressive Four-Peat? Or will they ar-buckle under the pressure and allow a new Big 12 Tournament champion to emerge?

Before I give you my predictions, let’s break down a few important things first: a) a few links on the Big 12 Tourney and to help you buy tickets to the Big 12 or NCAA Tournament; b) the bracket, which I will update as the games become final; and c) the current odds for each team. Here we go:

Links:

• Big 12 Tournament History: Past Champions and MVPs
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 Big 12 Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

And here are the odds of winning the 2009 Big Ten Championship game for each team (according to OffShoreInsiders.com):

• Oklahoma odds: +140
• Kansas odds: +150
• Missouri odds: +350
• Texas odds: +800
• Texas A&M odds: +800
• Kansas State odds: +1000
• Baylor odds: +2500
• Nebraska odds: +2500
• Field (any other team): +2500

And now, let’s break down the 2009 Big 12 Tournament game-by-game until we come up with a hypothetically predicted Big 12 champion:

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Wednesday Games

What a disappointment Baylor has been this season. Coming off last year’s success, Scott Drew was the favorite of some IU fans to become the new head coach in Bloomington. And with guys like Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn back, Baylor was a trendy pick to be a Top 25 team in 2008-09. However, the Bears are 17-13 (5-11 in conference) after starting the season 12-2. Still, I think the Bears’ ability to score (despite recent struggles), and their postseason experience from last year, makes them a darkhorse in the Big 12 Tournament. Nebraska just beat Baylor 66-62 in each team’s final regular season game, but I think Baylor pulls off the mini-upset here and advances. Baylor wins.

Colorado went 1-15 in conference play and sucks. Texas only went 9-7, but this is a solid 20-10 team that will play in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if this is even a game. Texas wins.

Oklahoma State finished in the four-team quagmire at 9-7, and this is a team that can really score and that is playing well. In their last 7 games, OSU is 6-1 with a four-point loss to Oklahoma being the only blemish. They spanked Iowa State earlier this year and the Cyclones, losers of 5 out of their last 7, have done nothing to show they have improved since the first meeting. Oklahoma State wins.

As a die-hard Hoosiers, Texas Tech has been my 2nd-favorite team since Bob Knight took over there. Now that Pat Knight is the head coach, the Red Raiders remain a favorite of mine. Unfortunately, Tech has sucked this season, going 3-13 in conference play and not stopping anyone on D. A&M beat them twice, scoring 79 each time. Of course, Texas Tech did recently beat Kansas by 19, so anything is possible. I hope Texas Tech proves me wrong, but I think Texas A&M wins.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Thursday Games

Assuming that my Wednesday picks prove true, my darkhorse Baylor will be playing Kansas in Round 2. Can the Bears win? Probably not. Kansas has really played well in conference play, minus the hiccup against Tech. They beat Baylor earlier this year, and while I think the Bears will make this a good game, I don’t think they play enough D to win it. Kansas advances.

Texas would play Kansas State in my hypothetical 2nd round. Both teams went 9-7 in conference play and both teams went 20-10 overall. However, Kansas State beat Texas in their one meeting in Austin. This game is a really toss up, so I’m going with Kansas State — because I live in Dallas and Longhorn fans can be really annoying. Not a very scientific way to pick a victor, I know, but there just is not much separating these two teams.

An Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchup in the 2nd round would be fun. Most people think, and I agree, that Oklahoma is the best team in the conference. Had Blake Griffin not gotten hurt, they might not have dropped that back-to-back set against Texas and Kansas. Still, the Sooners have lost three of their last five. But they beat Oklahoma State twice during the regular season, and are now back at full health. I think Griffin and the Sooners will be on a mission to prove that they are the best team in the Big 12. Oklahoma wins.

Texas A&M-Missouri in the second round would be a rematch of both teams’ final regular season game, in which A&M won by 10 at home. In the two previous games, Missouri lost to Kansas by 25 and then beat Oklahoma by 9. Will the real Tigers please stand up? The Aggies are playing very good defense of late and have won six in a row entering the tourney. I think the Aggies score another win over Missouri and advance to the semi-finals.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Friday Games

The battle of Kansas would ensure if my above predictions prove true. They played twice this season, with Kansas winning by double figures each time. And while I think Kansas State will pull of the win over Texas, the Wildcats have not scored an impressive victory since February 7th at Texas A&M. The Jayhawks will march on to the Big 12 Championship game.

Oklahoma-Texas A&M could be a very good game, and one the Aggies could win. However, Oklahoma won both regular season meetings and this would be A&M’s third game in three days. I think their Big 12 Tournament run ends here, as the Sooners and Blake Griffin will just be too much to overcome with less-than-100% legs.

Big 12 Tournament Championship Game on Saturday

It is the matchup that everyone wants to see: Kansas versus Oklahoma. You know Blake Griffin wants a chance to avenge the February 23rd loss, and a pissed off/motivated Blake Griffin is not a good thing for any opponent. Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12 when healthy, and is still gunning for a #1 seed. I think the beat Kansas, and beat them convincingly to win the Big 12 title.

So there you go — one man’s first impression, quick hit predictions for the 2009 Big 12 Tournament. As always, I suggest that you run to your nearest bookie and bet completely the opposite way, but that’s your call. Game 1 between Nebraska and Baylor tips off in a little over an hour, so I’ll be updating the bracket above as the day and week goes on.

Big 12 Basketball Tournament Preview: Can Kansas, Bill Self Four-Peat?

My Hoosiers play Wisconsin tonight in the final regular season game for both, and then we get one step closer to the height of March Madness with conference tournament week. So far, we provided our Big 10 Tournament Preview, ACC Tournament Preview, SEC Tournament Preview, and Big East Tournament Preview.

This afternoon we add one more to the list: the 2009 Big 12 Tournament Preview.

Before we get into the specifics, here is your quick preview of the 2009 Big 12 Conference Mens Basketball Tournament:

• What: 13th Big 12 Men Basketball Tournament
• Location: Ford Center — Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Dates: March 11 – March 14
• Official Website: 2009 Big 12 Tournament
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 Big 12 Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

This year’s Big 12 Tournament features a #1 seed that on the one hand you expect to be at the top — considering they have won the Big 12 Tournament three years in a row and six times overall. However, this year’s Big 12 Tournament #1 seed is also unlikely considering their standing in the preseason polls. I am talking, of course, about defending Big 12 and National Champion Kansas, which features my choice for National Coach of the Year: Bill Self.

Here are a few reasons why I think Bill Self should be National Coach of the Year:

• Preseason polls may be relatively meaningless, but they are good gauge of how much proven talent a team has returning from one year to the next. The Jayhawks were ranked #24 in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll, and #23 in the preseason Coaches Top 25 Poll. Currently, Kansas is ranked #9 in both the AP and Coaches Top 25 polls.
• Kansas lost three of its most important players off of last year’s National Championship team: Darrell Arthur, Mario Chalmers, and 2008 Big 12 Tournament MOP Brandon Rush. Yet, Self has rebuilt Kansas around the junior-sophomore-freshman trio of Sherron Collins-Cole Aldrich-Tyshawn Taylor.
• It is always harder to repeat, as the cliche goes. Yet the Jawhawks battled through a tough Big 12 conference to capture the regular season crown and are poised to get as high as a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a strong showing.

The best coaches in college basketball are the ones who can continuously reload and always have their team competing at the highest level. Florida and Billy Donovan repeated with the same team two years in a row — but look at Florida now. They have not been a Top 25 team two years running. Bill Self has a completely different team than last season and Kansas heads into its conference tournament with the #1 seed.

Don’t get me wrong: Jeff Capel of Oklahoma and Mike Anderson at Missouri have also done tremendous jobs this season, as the three top teams in the Big 12 all outperformed preseason expectations. As always, there are plenty of worthy candidates for National Coach of the Year, but considering what he lost and the disparity between the preseason expectations and in-season success, I have to give my vote to Bill Self.

He looks like Jon Arbuckle from the Garfield comics, but he coaches as well as anyone in the business right now.

So, how does the 2009 Big 12 Tournament shape up? Here is the TV schedule and bracket, based on the final 2009 Big 12 Standings:

2009 Big 12 Tournament TV Schedule and Bracket

[Note: Follow the link to view the Big 12 Tournament bracket at the official Big 12 Tournament website.]

The Big 12 Tournament is a lot like the Big 10 tournament: usually very exciting, but without the storied history of longer-standing conference tournaments like the ACC and SEC. Still, as the Big 12 Tournament approaches, historical perspective is always helpful. Below, you will find a breakdown of each of the 12 previous Big 12 Conference Tournaments. As you can see, the 12 years are bookended by Kansas three-peats. Can they make it a four-peat this year? We shall see.

Big 12 Tournament History: Champions and MOPs

You can also find a breakdown of the Won/Loss record for each team at the Big 12 Tournament wikipedia page.

Enjoy the tournament. An Oklahoma title probably gives the Sooners a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas probably locks up a #2 seed with a Big 12 Tournament title. But perhaps Missouri, Texas, or a first day darkhorse can spoil the top dogs’ fun and provide a drama next Saturday.