As always, Jerod, Ryan, and Andy will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Iowa Gameday Info

• Date: Sunday, January 29th
• Time: 6:00 ET, 5:00 CT
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: Eric Collins and Dan Bonner
• Point Spread: Indiana by 11.5
• Over-Under: 151
• KenPom Prediction: Indiana 89-70 with 92% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Iowa
• IU-Penn State live tweet coverage: @AssemblyCall
• Assembly Call IU Postgame Show: http://assemblycall.com/live

IU-Iowa Preview

Iowa Hawkeyes

It’s been an up-and-down year for the Hawkeyes, who didn’t beat anyone of note in the non-conference and even lost to Campbell at home by 15 points.  However, their three Big Ten wins have come at Wisconsin, at Minnesota, and home against Michigan, who they beat by 16 points.  They’ve also been swept by Purdue and lost to Ohio State and Michigan State by a combined 63 points.  Most recently, the Hawkeyes fell to Nebraska at home by a 79-73 score after allowing the Huskers to score 48 points in the second half.

Iowa comes in with the worst defensive efficiency in the Big Ten, an honor (or maybe a dishonor) the Hoosiers held until recently.  Interestingly enough, they have allowed opponents to shoot just 29.0 percent from behind the arc, but they are allowing 56.5 percent shooting on two-pointers, which ranks dead last in the conference.

The Hawkeyes don’t force many turnovers and have been victimized on the offense glass, leaving their relatively low opponents’ free throw rate as one of their only positives on the defensive end.  Consequently, it’s reasonable to expect the Hoosiers to employ a similar gameplan as they did versus Wisconsin when they shot just eight three-pointers and attacked more off the dribble.

On offense, Iowa wants to push the tempo and plays at the second-fastest pace in league play.  They have been effective at drawing fouls and getting to the line, and they’ve done a nice job on the offensive glass, thanks in large part to the efforts of Aaron White and Zach McCabe.  Outside of that, the Hawkeyes rank seventh or worse in the conference in shooting percentage on two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws, and their turnover rate is in the middle of the pack.

Eight Iowa players scored at least 6.0 points per game, led by Matt Gatens and Roy Devyn Marble with 13.2 and 11.3 points, respectively.  Gatens has at least 11 points in 10 of the last 12 games, and he also leads the Hawkeyes in steals.  Marble has stepped up his scoring of late with 58 points in the last four games, and while his shooting percentages aren’t great, he’s second on the team in assists and steals.  He also has a low turnover rate and has been adept at getting to the line.

The aforementioned White and McCabe team with sophomore Melsahn Basabe give the Hawkeyes some solid options in the frontcourt.  White, a 6-foot-8 freshman, has consistently given the team a lift off the bench and averages 9.7 points and 4.9 boards in just under 20 minutes per game. His rebounding percentages are good on both ends of the floor, and he’s drawing nearly six fouls per 40 minutes.  McCabe is coming off of back-to-back 20-point efforts where he has gone a combined 16-of-24 from the field.  Meanwhile, Basabe’s numbers have fallen off in his second season, but he’s still a solid rebounder and inside threat.

Indiana Hoosiers

The Hoosiers are coming off of a disappointing loss to Wisconsin, but it was also their best defensive performance of the conference season.  While Iowa isn’t particularly explosive offensively, IU can’t afford a relapse into their defensive funk from earlier Big Ten games, and they have to get back in transition to prevent easy baskets.

Given Iowa’s struggles to defend two-pointers, a heavy dose of Cody Zeller is a given, but the freshman needs to stay out of foul trouble and do a better job of establishing post position.  He was plagued by foul trouble against Wisconsin and managed just seven points and three rebounds.

The Hoosiers got 12 big points from Verdell Jones III in the first half of the Wisconsin game, but he struggled after the break.  They need him to attack the basket as he did during the first 20 minutes of that game against a struggling Iowa defense.

Other key players to watch for IU are Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey, who combined for just four points on 2-of-10 shooting.  Oladipo hasn’t been playing with as much confidence of late, and his offensive struggles are starting to impact his defense as well.  Sheehey, on the other hand, did a terrific job defending Jordan Taylor in the Wisconsin game but couldn’t get anything rolling offensively despite playing 25 minutes, his second-highest total of the season.

Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls have each had big games against the Hawkeyes during their careers, with Watford hanging 30 on them in the first matchup last season while Hulls went for 24 in the second.

Final Thought

Ultimately this is a solid matchup for the Hoosiers.  On defense, Iowa consistently allows a lot of points and doesn’t force many turnovers, and on offense, they aren’t overly explosive thanks to their relatively poor shooting percentages.  The Hoosiers need to make sure they protect the defensive glass for 40 minutes and avoid making silly fouls to keep Iowa’s offense from getting easy points.

As I said before the Penn State game, this is one the Hoosiers simply have to win, not only to get back to .500 in league play but also to exercise the demons of the last few games against Iowa.  They need to jump on a relatively young Hawkeye team early and show some killer instinct, which would give the Hoosiers a dose of confidence heading into a pair of key road games against Michigan and Purdue.

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Listen to Andy Sunday on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

As always, Jerod, Ryan, and Andy will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Wisconsin Gameday Info

• Date: Thursday, January 26th
• Time: 9:00 ET, 8:00 CT
• TV: ESPN2
• Announcers: Dave O’Brien and Stephen Bardo
• Point Spread: Wisconsin by 6.5
• Over-Under: 125
• KenPom Prediction: Wisconsin 66-58 with 78% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Wisconsin
• IU-Penn State live tweet coverage: @AssemblyCall
• Assembly Call IU Postgame Show: http://assemblycall.com/live

IU-Wisconsin Preview

After starting out just 1-3 in the Big Ten, the Badgers have bounced back to win four straight heading into Thursday’s game.  On Sunday, Wisconsin picked up their third road victory in league play, winning at Illinois behind 19 points, nine rebounds, and five assists from Jordan Taylor.  Big man Jared Berggren chipped in 18 points, and the Badgers shot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc.

This season’s Wisconsin offense is reliant on a couple things: hitting three-pointers and limiting turnovers.  The Badgers take nearly 40 percent of their field goal attempts from long range (and nearly 42 percent in league play), where they are hitting 37.5 percent for the season.  While Taylor has struggled with his outside shot, guys like Berggren (37.0%), Mike Bruesewitz (38.0%), Ben Brust (39.0%), and Josh Gasser (52.0%) have all had big games throughout the season.  Limiting open looks will be critical for the Hoosiers, who have struggled defensively in conference play.

Led by Taylor, the Badgers have the second-lowest turnover rate in the country with a miniscule 15.2 percent mark, so don’t expect the Hoosiers to force a lot of turnovers.  They will also need to improve their defense on ball screens, which is an area that has plagued them recently and something that Taylor and Wisconsin use frequently.

Wisconsin has a relatively low offensive rebounding percentage, so they don’t seem likely to take advantage of IU’s weakness on the defensive glass.  They also have one of the lowest free throw rates in the country, which is not unexpected for a team that shoots so many three-pointers.

Taylor’s scoring and shooting percentages are down, but keep in mind that he lit up the Hoosiers for 67 points in two games last season.  Still, he leads the team with 14.1 points per game to go with 4.4 assists and 4.2 rebounds, and he’s been scoring more of late with 53 points in the last three games.  Five other Badgers average at least 6.5 points, but they have struggled with consistent production throughout the year.

Defensively the Badgers are as impressive as ever and allow just 0.83 points per possession for the year.  In fact, they have allowed just three teams to score over 1.00 ppp this season.  Wisconsin is first in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage, and they rank 17th in both defensive rebounding percentage and opponents’ free throw rate.  They don’t force many turnovers, but nothing will come easy for Indiana on the offensive end.

The Hoosiers are coming off of a much-needed win over Penn State on Sunday where they blitzed the Nittany Lions for 46 points in the second half and won by 19.  Cody Zeller led the way for IU with 18 points, and he now has 75 points over the last four games.  As always, the Hoosiers need to get him involved early and often.

Indiana also got 18 bench points in the win over Penn State, and the team will need guys like Matt Roth and Will Sheehey to come in and make shots against the stingy Wisconsin defense.  Jordan Hulls posted 14 points against the Nittany Lions, and he enjoyed some success against Wisconsin last season with 31 points in the teams’ two matchups.

The game will also be a battle of tempos, as the Badgers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, while Indiana would like to get out and push the pace.  They will certainly find it challenging to score in the half court against the Badgers, but if they can find ways to involve Zeller and create open threes, they should be able to score enough points to win.

Once again, it will come down to defense for IU.  The Badgers aren’t particularly explosive offensively, but the Hoosiers have made lesser teams look like offensive forces in conference play.  Their defense on ball screens and three-pointers will go a long way toward deciding the outcome of the game.

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Listen to Andy Thursday on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

This week’s episode features a thorough look at the world of college basketball with hot topics from all BCS conferences discussed as well as some notable mid-majors as well.

Specific topics discussed this week include:

• Big 12: Thoughts on Baylor, Scott Drew, and a key stretch for Iowa State
• Big Ten: Michigan’s inconsistency and the future for Illinois and Northwestern
• Big East: Syracuse’s recent struggles and thoughts on who the second best team in the league is
• ACC: Talk about Austin Rivers, Michael Snaer, and Harrison Barnes
• Pac-12: Oregon’s chances at a Pac-12 title
• SEC: Attempts to make sense of Lunardi’s bracket projection for Florida
• Other thoughts on Dayton, the race in the Colonial, New Mexico, BYU, and the number of bids from C-USA.

Listen using the player below:

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As always, Jerod and Andy will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Penn State Gameday Info

• Date: Sunday, January 22nd
• Time: 12:00 ET, 11:00 CT
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: Tom Hart and Dan Bonner
• Point Spread: Indiana by 14.5
• Over-Under: 141
• KenPom Prediction: Indiana 80-61 with 94% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Penn State
• IU-Penn State live tweet coverage: @AssemblyCall
• Assembly Call IU Postgame Show: http://assemblycall.com/live

IU-Penn State Preview

Despite Penn State’s record, the Nittany Lions should come into this one with some confidence after playing well in the first matchup between these two teams and upsetting Illinois at home this week.  Cammeron Woodyard came up big against the Illini with 17 points, while star guard Tim Frazier had 12 points and nine assists.

These teams met in Happy Valley just two weeks ago with the Hoosiers using a barrage of three-pointers to squeak out a six-point victory.  That was actually the last time the Hoosiers won, and some of the contributing factors to their recent swoon were on display even in a winning effort.  IU allowed Penn State to grab 42.4 percent of their own misses, forced just nine turnovers, and had 17 turnovers of their own.  Gaudy 16-of-24 shooting from beyond the arc ultimately save the day for the Hoosiers with Jordan Hulls and Matt Roth combining for 12 triples and 50 total points.

For Penn State in that game, Tim Frazier led the way with 21 points, although he needed 23 shots to get them.  Jermaine Marshall scored 20 points for the Nittany Lions, and four other players had at least eight points.

While other players have stepped up at times for Penn State, Tim Frazier is essentially the offense.  He comes in averaging 17.9 points, 6.7 assists, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.4 steals, all of which lead the team.  He doesn’t shoot particularly well from deep, instead relying on his quickness to get into the lane to score, find open teammates, or draw fouls.  Frazier ranks first in the nation in assist rate and draws 6.8 fouls per 40 minutes, which he has converted into 146 free throws.  The Hoosiers have struggled to stop dribble penetration recently, so the defensive effort on Frazier will be critical.

The other player who has been hot lately is Woodyard, who has scored 39 points in his last two games.

Through Thursday’s games, Penn State has the lowest effective field goal percentage in conference play, ranking 10th in three-point shooting and 12th on two-pointers.  With so many missed shots though, they continue to excel on the offensive glass, ranking third in league games with a 35.1 offensive rebounding percentage.  The Hoosiers have had issues with cleaning the defensive glass in recent games, and it’s an area they need to be particularly concerned about against the Nittany Lions.

Defensively, Penn State ranks 12th in effective field goal percentage and free throw rate.  They have consistently allowed opponents to get clean looks from beyond the arc, which IU was able to exploit in the first matchup.  However, PSU also is second in league play in turnover rate, which should be a concern for IU given how careless they have been with the basketball of late.

For Indiana, one of the lone bright spots during the losing streak has been the play of Cody Zeller, who has averaged 19.0 points and 7.0 rebounds during that stretch.  The Hoosiers need to continue to find ways to get him the ball and run the offense through him.

The Hoosiers definitely needs Christian Watford to get back on track.  Since hanging 25 on Michigan, Watford is just 10-of-38 (26.3%) from the field with 12 turnovers in four games.  Verdell Jones and Jordan Hulls have also struggled during the three-game losing streak, with Jones going 5-of-18 (27.8%) from the field and Hulls hitting just 4-of-17 (23.5%) from long range.  This is definitely a game where the Hoosiers will need their veterans to step up.

With a number of players struggling, keep an eye on Will Sheehey’s playing time.  He’s averaging just 16 minutes since returning from an ankle injury, but he has posted 8.0 points and 3.0 rebounds per game in those three contests.

Quite frankly, this is a must-win game for the Hoosiers who gave away the game against Nebraksa with a flurry of second half turnovers and poor defensive rebounding.  Not only is this a huge game for IU in terms of stopping their losing streak, but it’s also critical for a team that has allowed losing streaks to snowball over the last few seasons.  Right now, the team looks fragile mentally and is missing the aggressiveness that became their calling card earlier in the season.

The keys to the game will be containing Frazier off the dribble, protecting the defensive glass, and limiting turnovers.  If the Hoosiers can do those things, they should be able to get back on track and gain some confidence heading into a tough road game in Madison on Thursday.

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Listen to Andy Sunday on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

As always, Jerod, Andy, and Ryan will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Nebraska Gameday Info

• Date: Wednesday, January 18th
• Time: 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Eddie Johnson
• Point Spread: Indiana by 4.5
• Over-Under: 131
• KenPom Prediction: Indiana 71-61 with 82% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Nebraska

IU-Nebraska Preview

After losing to both Minnesota and Ohio State last week, the Hoosiers are trying to get back on track, particularly on the defensive end.  A matchup with the Huskers gives them a great chance to do just that with Nebraska scoring a league-worst 0.84 points per possession in conference play.  That said, the schedule-makers certainly didn’t do the Huskers any favors in their first Big Ten campaign with their first eight games coming against Ohio State and Wisconsin twice plus matchups with Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan State.

From an efficiency standpoint, there aren’t many positives when you look at Nebraska’s tempo-free stats.  They rank 177th in effective field goal percentage, 241st in turnover rate, 272nd in offensive rebound percentage, and 274th in free throw rate.  They make just 32.4 percent from beyond the arc, and their low free throw rate doesn’t allow them to take advantage of how well they shoot from the stripe.

The Huskers are slightly better on defense, allowing 1.02 points per possession in league play.  While their defensive rebounding percentage looks decent for the season, Nebraska is second-worst in the league during conference play.  They do defend the three-point line well, which might make it difficult for the Hoosiers to get back on track from beyond the arc after hitting just 11-of-39 (28.2%) in their last two games.

LSU transfer Bo Spencer leads Nebraska in scoring with 14.8 points and 3.7 assists per game.  While the scoring numbers look nice, Spencer isn’t particularly efficient.  He’s taken 96 three-pointers despite hitting just 31.3 percent from deep, and his eFG% is a pedestrian 45.5%.  He does have a solid assist rate and is a factor on the defensive end.

Nebraska has six other players scoring between 6.4 and 10.4 points per contest.  Guard Toney McCray (10.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg) is the team’s top three-point threat and had a string of seven straight double-digit scoring efforts snapped against Wisconsin on Sunday.  The other perimeter player to watch is Dylan Talley (9.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.0 apg).  He has six double figure games to his credit and will be playing his fourth game since returning from a thigh injury.

Inside, the Huskers rely on Jorge Brian Diaz and Brandon Ubel.  Diaz (9.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.3 bpg) also recently returned from a foot injury, but he scored at least eight points in his first 10 games this year.  The 6-foot-11 junior is also adept at blocking shots, as evidenced by his 9.4 block percentage.  Ubel (6.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg) is the team’s best offensive rebounder, and given IU’s struggles there in recent games, they need to find him when shots go up.

Tempo will be something to watch given the contrast in styles with IU wanting to get up and down while the Huskers want to grind it out.  At the same time, the Hoosiers have to take better care of the basketball.  They are 10th in turnover rate in league play, while that is one area where the Huskers have played well on the defensive end.  Consequently, the play and decision-making of Jordan Hulls and Verdell Jones will be critical for Indiana.

While Nebraska has excelled at defending the three-point line, they have allowed a high percentage from two-point range, so the Hoosiers would be well-served to attack inside through Cody Zeller, who posted 39 points and 14 rebounds in two games last week.  They also need Christian Watford to get back on track after going just 5-of-20 in the two losses.

Regardless of the individual matchups, it is imperative for IU to come out with the same aggressiveness and intensity that propelled them to a 15-1 start.  They have not been getting nearly as many deflections on the defensive end and have failed to consistently show toughness in competing on the glass and for loose balls.  Their level of effort and awareness will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this game.

As we have seen in the early going, the Big Ten offers very few opportunities to pick up road wins, but if the Hoosiers want to contend for a conference title, this is one they have to win.  After a dismal first half in Columbus, IU showed fight in the second half against the Buckeyes, which has to carry over in the early going against Nebraska.  The Huskers don’t come in with much confidence offensively, but if the Hoosiers don’t tighten up their defense and allow them to hang around, things could get interesting in Lincoln.

Listen to Andy tonight on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

IU-Nebraska Postgame Show

Call-in number: (858) 365-5571

Use this number to call in and provide your thoughts on-air or to listen on your phone.

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IU-Nebraska Postgame Chat

As always, Jerod, Andy, and Ryan will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Ohio State Gameday Info

• Date: Sunday, January 15th
• Time: 4:30 ET, 3:30 CT
• TV: CBS
• Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: Ohio State by 12.5
• Over-Under: 142.5
• KenPom Prediction: Ohio State 77-65 with 84% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Ohio State

IU-Ohio State Preview

Both teams are looking to bounce back following tough losses this week.  Ohio State was on the receiving end of Brandon Paul’s 43-point explosion when they played the Illini on Tuesday, and the Hoosiers were outplayed by a scrappy and determined Minnesota team at home on Thursday.  In addition, OSU will be looking to avenge a New Year’s Eve loss in Bloomington.

Buckeye big man Jared Sullinger comes in on a roll after scoring 68 points and grabbing 25 boards in his last three games.  Foul trouble limited him in the first meeting between these two teams, but the Hoosiers will have to find a way to limit him inside, a tall task that will likely fall on Cody Zeller.  Given IU’s struggles to clean up the offensive glass of late, Sullinger’s rebounding is a huge factor to watch.

OSU forward DeShaun Thomas is coming off one of his better games of the season with 23 points against the Illini.  Like Sullinger, foul trouble hindered his production in the first game against IU where he was held to a season-low five points.  However, the Indiana native scored 22 points against the Hoosiers in Columbus last year.  The matchup between Thomas and Christian Watford is a critical one for both clubs.

Watford struggled through his worst game of the season against the Gophers, scoring just five points on 1-of-7 shooting and turning the ball over four times and grabbing only three rebounds.  It will be important for the Hoosiers to get him involved offensively in the early going if they want to spring the upset, and he has to be more physical on the defensive glass to prevent second-chance points.

The other two key players for the Buckeyes are guards William Buford and Aaron Craft.  Buford was also limited by foul trouble in the first meeting, scoring just eight points in one of three single-digit scoring efforts over his last seven games.  The dilemma for the Hoosiers will be figuring out whether to put defensive ace Victor Oladipo on Buford or Craft.  He picked up a couple key steals against Craft at the end of the first half in the team’s first meeting, but Verdell Jones spent a lot of time on Craft in the second half and played relatively well.

That ultimately speaks to the biggest key for IU, as their defense has allowed a Big Ten-worst 1.11 points per possession.  What once was thought to be just an anomaly is starting to look like a trend, and the Hoosier defense was carved up by a mediocre Minnesota offense on Thursday night.  Indiana needs to get back to forcing turnovers and rotating effectively on defense, in addition to keeping the Buckeyes off the offensive glass.  Otherwise, it could be a long afternoon.

On offense, the Hoosiers are coming off of one of their worst three-point shooting efforts of the season after making just 4-of-18 against the Gophers, two of which came in the closing minutes.  The ball movement has to improve after tallying just six assists on Thursday, which won’t be easy against the on-ball pressure of Craft and a stout OSU defense.  Consequently, the performances of Jordan Hulls and Verdell Jones will be critical.  Hulls got hot late against Minnesota, but Jones suffered through his worst game of the season, going scoreless with three turnovers in 23 minutes.  They combined for 31 points when they faced the Buckeyes in Bloomington and will need to come close to that total again while limiting their turnovers.

Cody Zeller played one of the best offensive games of his young career against Minnesota with 23 points and eight rebounds.  The Hoosiers need to continue to feed him the ball inside to put pressure on Sullinger defensively.  Zeller’s quickness and ability to run the floor could pay dividends if he can keep himself out of foul trouble.

Indiana also got a big boost with the return of Will Sheehey, who came off the bench to score 12 points and grab six rebounds in just 15 minutes against the Gophers.  He’s still working his way back from a conditioning standpoint but gives the Hoosiers another offensive weapon as well as a versatile defender.

The Hoosiers have been getting great play off the bench from Matt Roth, and his ability to knock down three-pointers has been a shot in the arm for the offense.  He hit nine three-pointers against Ohio State as a freshman.  The bench play from Tom Pritchard and Derek Elston will also be critical.  Both struggled against Minnesota but will be key in helping the IU defense slow down Sullinger.

The Buckeyes boast the top defense in the nation in terms of adjusted efficiency.  They allow the lowest offensive rebound percentage in the country and are in the Top 10 in turnover rate.  Their ability to slow IU down on offense puts that much more pressure on the Hoosier defense to keep this one close.

Ohio State is a perfect 13-0 at home this season, and they will be motivated for revenge against the Hoosiers on Sunday.  While IU faces a tall order on the road, their previous victory over the Buckeyes should provide some measure of confidence.  Win or lose, the Hoosiers need to show improvement on the defensive end and rekindle the hustle, toughness, and emotion that propelled them to a 15-1 start.

Listen to Andy tonight on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

IU-Ohio State Postgame Show

Call-in number: (858) 365-5571

Use this number to call in and provide your thoughts on-air or to listen on your phone.

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IU-Ohio State Postgame Chat

1. Draymond Green, Michigan State

Justified or not, these types of awards typically go to the best player on the best team, but that isn’t why I have Green ranked this high despite the fact the Spartans are playing the best basketball of anyone in the league.

Quite simply, Green does everything for this team.

In terms of raw numbers, he leads them in points (15.9 ppg), rebounds (9.8 rpg), and blocks (1.2 bpg) and is second in assists (3.4 apg) and steals (1.5 spg).  He’s the only player in the league to be in that Top 15 in each of those categories and one of just three players to rank that high in four of them.

Green has scored in double figures in 16 of MSU’s 17 games with eight double-doubles, and he’s narrowly missed three others.  He ranks among the nation’s leaders in defensive rebounding percentage and has a tremendous assist rate, particularly when you consider he doesn’t play guard.  Throw in the fact that he also attacks the offensive glass, draws a lot of fouls, and is an above average defender.

Perhaps most importantly, he is the unquestioned leader of the Michigan State team and has helped propel one of last season’s most disappointing teams to a Top 10 ranking, even after losing their first two games.

Image credit: Al Goldis – AP via The Only Colors

2. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Sullinger’s absence, either via injury or foul trouble, played a key role in Ohio State’s first two losses this season against Kansas and Indiana.  Brandon Paul can take credit for the third.  But ultimately, that shows what a game-changer Sullinger is and how vital he is to OSU’s success.  The 17.4 points and 9.3 boards per game speak to that too I suppose.

I could rattle off stats for quite a while about just how impressive Sullinger is, but here are just a few.  His 126.9 offensive rating is among the best in the country.  His 31.0 defensive rebounding percentage means he grabs nearly one out of every three of their opponents’ missed shots, which has helped the Buckeyes become the most efficient defensive team.  Sullinger makes better than 60 percent of his field goal attempts, is a monster on the offensive glass, and draws a ton of fouls.  He has eight double-doubles in 16 games, and the only game where he hasn’t scored at least 11 points is the one he left with a foot injury.

Interestingly, Sullinger’s free throw rate has fallen from last season, and he’s attempted just six free throws in the last three games.  That said, with the team struggling from beyond the arc, they would be well served to pound the ball inside to him even more.  Without a doubt, he is the top low-post player in college basketball and the top player on one of the nation’s elite teams.

3. Cody Zeller, Indiana

For a player who came in with extremely high expectations from a fan base starving for success, it’s hard to believe that Zeller has already blown those out of the water.  You can add to that what his signing meant for the program and its future, but let’s focus on his play on the court.

Zeller is in the Top 11 in the Big Ten in points (14.2 ppg), rebounds (6.4 rpg), steals (1.7 spg), and blocks (1.5 bpg).  He’s shooting over 66 percent from the field, and as Luke Winn pointed out, he rarely gets into foul trouble.  His offensive rating is in the nation’s Top 25, and he quite simply has changed the way the Hoosiers play due to his ability to score in the post, draw fouls, rebound, and run the floor.

The scary part is that he’s only going to get better once he adds more bulk and gets used to the physical nature of conference play.  And while you can’t give him all the credit, the reality is that the Hoosiers are the most surprising team in the country.  They returned virtually everyone from a team that went 12-20, and the only addition to play substantial minutes is Zeller.  Take from that what you will.

4. Tim Frazier, Penn State

Frazier will never actually win this award, because his team is barely over .500 at this point.  But I’m not sure they would have won more than a game or two without him.

Like Zeller, he ranks among the Big Ten leaders in points (17.4 ppg), rebounds (5.4 rpg), assists (6.8 apg), and steals (2.2 spg), all of which are tops on the team.  He has played just under 90 percent of the team’s minutes this season, ranks second in the nation in assist rate at 47.8, and draws 7.0 fouls per 40 minutes, which he has parlayed into 125 free throw attempts already.  In short, he is Penn State’s team, and even though their opponents knows that coming in, he continues to produce.

The team’s reliance on him ultimately leads to the two knocks against him, a high number of turnovers and a relatively poor shooting percentage.  Even so, I would argue that no player in the league means more to his team.

5. Trey Burke, Michigan

Coming into the season, my biggest question about the Wolverines was how they could (or if they could) replace Darius Morris at the point.  Burke has provided a resounding answer to that question, and if not for Zeller, he would be a lock for Freshman of the Year.

After logging just 18 minutes in the opener, Burke has played at least 30 minutes in every game since, reaching double figures in 14 of 15 games including the last ten.  He leads the team with 5.0 assists per game, and his 29.8 assist rate ranks just outside the Top 100 nationally and is among the five best in the league.  His turnover rate and decision-making bely his youth, and ultimately his ability to run the offense so effectively has allowed the Wolverines to pick up where they left off last season.

As with Zeller, the fact that Burke is only going to get better is a frightening proposition for Big Ten coaches, and he has the talent to be a contender for this award over the next few years as well.

6. Robbie Hummel, Purdue

It’s hard not to feel good for Hummel after suffering not one, but two, devastating knee injuries.  He’s leading the Boilers in scoring (16.2 ppg), rebounding (6.2 rpg), and blocks (1.2 bpg)  while hitting over 38 percent from three-point range.  Hummel has been remarkably consistent, scoring at least 10 points in all but one game and grabbing at least five boards in 14 of 17 contests.

With JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore gone, Hummel has been counted on as the primary scorer for the first time in his career, as evidenced by the fact he’s taken 109 more shots than anyone else on the team.  Given how much he handles the ball, his paltry 7.2 turnover rate is that much more impressive.

While Hummel isn’t a flashy player by any means, he’s as steady as they come and has given a relatively young Purdue team a rock to build around.  And a year after losing two of the best players in school history, the Boilers are in good position to get a tournament bid, which is a testament to his leadership and overall ability.

7. Christian Watford, Indiana

While Watford played hero in one of the top moments (ok, the top moment) of the season so far with his buzzer-beater to knock off then top-ranked Kentucky, focusing only on that play would be a disservice to Watford’s overall productivity this season.  You could argue that he’s one of the most improved players in the conference as well despite the fact that he led the Hoosiers in scoring last season.

Tom Crean cites a change in Watford’s mindset following Spring Break last season, but the transformation was most evident to me starting with the second half of the N.C. State game.  He scored 11 points and grabbed seven rebounds after halftime to lead the Hoosiers to a key road win.  In the nine games since, he has eight double-digit scoring games, four 20-point performances, and a pair of double-doubles.

The addition of Zeller has allowed Watford to play more on the perimeter where he’s hitting 52.9 percent from beyond the arc, but he continues to draw fouls and get to the line at a relatively high rate.  He and Zeller are still learning how best to play with one another, but Watford is playing like an All-Conference performer of late and deserves some credit for IU’s overall success – as well as its signature moment.

8. Keith Appling, Michigan State

Just one month ago I would have been committed for putting Appling on this list, but his play over the last eight games has been a huge factor in Michigan State’s improvement.  After being used primarily as a defensive stopper as a freshman, he was asked to take on an expanded role at the point this season.  Through two games, he had zero assists, although he did show flashes with a 22-point outburst against Duke.

Over the last eight games though, he has 43 assists compared to just 16 turnovers.  Appling’s scoring has ramped up as well with 17.8 points per game over the last fives contests.  His best game came against Indiana where he 25 points, seven assists, and six rebounds while being incredibly dispruptive on defense and holding Jordan Hulls to just four points on 2-of-10 shooting with four turnovers.  In Sparty’s road win over Wisconsin, he was the MSU offense at certain points in the second half.

There were plenty of questions about Michigan State’s offense after their first few games, and Appling’s improved play at the point has spurred them to become significantly more effective on that end of the floor.  Many of his efficiency numbers are among the best in the league, and considering his age, he’s only going to get better as the season rolls along.

9. John Shurna, Northwestern

Regardless of whether you think the Wildcats will be able to make the tournament for the first time ever (which I don’t), you can’t really leave the conference’s leading scorer off of this list.  Shurna is scoring 18.7 points per game while also grabbing 6.1 boards and blocking 1.7 shots per game.

Despite an unorthodox shooting motion, Shurna is hitting over 42 percent from beyond the arc and shoots over 83 percent from the line, although he could stand to get there more often.  For a team that is limited defensively, the Wildcats are forced to rely heavily on Shurna and Drew Crawford to post big offensive numbers every night.  He’s played at least 35 minutes in all but three games and has scored at least 15 points in all but four contests with six 20-point efforts and two 30-plus point outbursts.

If Northwestern somehow finds a way to go dancing in March, you can be certain that Shurna will be the main reason why, which gives him the opportunity to climb this list as the season moves forward.

10. Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin

I know Taylor and the Badgers have struggled this season, and my first pass at this list didn’t even have him on it.  Sure, his numbers are down from last season, but I would argue that has more to do with how much Wisconsin misses guys like Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil.

In the end, Taylor’s value to the team is probably second only to Tim Frazier’s, because while some of his teammates have played at times, none of them have been a reliable Robin to Taylor’s Batman.  Even so, his assist rate is just slightly lower than last season, and his turnover rate has remained outstanding for someone with the ball in his hands so much.  His two-point shooting is virtually even with last year, but his three-point shooting has dropped with fewer wide open looks than he saw as a junior.

In many ways, the Badgers are playing as poorly as I can recall in recent years, but I’m not convinced that is an indictment of Jordan Taylor.  What I do know is that they wouldn’t have even been competitive against teams like North Carolina or Michigan State without him.

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It’s worth noting that I am writing this the day after Illinois’ Brandon Paul went off for 43 points against Ohio State, so you may be surprised to not see his name on this list.  It was a phenomenal performance – one of the best so far this season – but his play earlier in the season doesn’t exactly warrant his inclusion.  He was scoring but had posted some pretty ugly efficiency numbers in the process with just a 91.7 offensive rating heading into that game.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

I’ll be releasing my own projections starting next week, but for now I thought it would be worthwhile to look at how Big Ten teams are shaping up with as many as nine of them in some of these mock brackets.

For the purposes of this exercise, I have narrowed down the projections to Andy Glockner of SI.com, Shawn Siegel of College Hoops Net, and Dave Ommen of Bracketville.  The latter two names both rank atop the bracket project matrix which has tracked success over the last few years, and Glockner is a great follow on Twitter and does a tremendous job of sharing his thought process as he brackets the teams each Sunday night.

One other thing to keep in mind is that while the committee uses RPI in the selection and seeding process, it can be a bit misleading at this point of the season.  You’ll currently find a number of teams from outside of the six major conferences with high RPI’s, fueled largely by their strength of schedule numbers.  Once they start playing teams in their own leagues, and once major conference teams start challenging themselves in conference play as well, things should start to shift.

In order of average seed, here are the nine Big Ten teams in the discussion:

Ohio State (Glockner/Ommen: 1, Siegel: 2)

Kentucky and Syracuse were unanimous top seeds, while Ohio State and North Carolina showed up on two of the three projections.

Siegel opted for Baylor over the Buckeyes, which is an argument you can certainly make.  The Bears have more wins against the RPI Top 100 and have a number of good wins against teams like Mississippi State, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, and at BYU.  However, the Buckeyes have knocked off Duke and Florida, so their “best” wins are better.

Still, they have two losses, although neither can be considered “bad” since one game at Kansas without Jared Sullinger and the other came in a close game on the road against Indiana, who is 13th in the RPI.

Barring a collapse, it’s hard seeing the Buckeyes getting anything lower than a two seed come March.

Indiana (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

With wins over Kentucky and Ohio State, you could argue that no team has two better wins than the Hoosiers.  If you want to nitpick though, seven of their 13 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 200, so strength of schedule is one factor keeping them from getting a higher seed.

Their SoS should climb as they move through Big Ten play, and with UConn losing to Seton Hall, the opportunity to move up is certainly there.  Indiana’s lone loss came at Michigan State, so there’s no shame in that.

Michigan State (Glockner/Siegel/Ommen: 3)

These projections came out prior to Sparty’s road win over Wisconsin, so Tom Izzo’s squad has a good chance to improve their seed when the next set of projections come out.  Both of their losses came against teams in the RPI Top 15, one of which was on a aircraft carrier so who knows how much stock you can put in that.

MSU has now won 14 straight games and is playing as well as anyone in the nation’s top conference.  The only knock on them is that just two of their wins (Indiana, at Gonzaga) are against the RPI Top 50.  If they keep playing the way they are, a two-seed is definitely realistic.

Wisconsin (Glockner/Siegel: 5, Ommen: 6)

The Badgers are an interesting case.  They rank 60th in the RPI and are just 1-3 against the Top 50 and 5-4 against the Top 150.  Outside of an 11-point home win over UNLV, there really isn’t much else on their profile in terms of a marquee win.  Their next two games are on the road against Michigan and Purdue, so a split there would help stop their seeding freefall.

Michigan (Siegel: 4, Glockner/Ommen: 6)

The Wolverines are one of the teams I can’t quite figure out yet.  Their two best wins are against Memphis in Maui and at home against Minnesota, and at this point neither of those teams is safely in the field.  They currently sit at 31st in the RPI with seven of their 12 victories against teams outside of the Top 150.

Thursday’s game at Indiana is a chance to prove themselves, as is Sunday’s home date with Wisconsin.  At this point, I lean more toward Glockner and Ommen’s seed for Michigan.

Purdue (Siegel/Ommen: 7, Glockner: 10)

Purdue’s road win at Iowa looked better after the Hawkeyes knocked off Wisconsin, and I think their win over Miami (FL) will look better by the end of the year.  For now, the loss to Butler hurts, but that may change as well.

The Boilers also have wins over Iona, Temple, and Illinois, all of which are in the Top 32 of the RPI.  That said, they are 4-3 against the Top 100 with six of their 12 wins over sub-150 teams.  For seeding purposes, their losses to Alabama and Xavier may become important, because right now those teams are right around the same seed range.

Illinois (Siegel/Ommen: 8, Glockner: 9)

Since winning their first 10 games, the Illini have dropped three of five with their two wins over that span coming by four over Cornell and in double overtime against Minnesota.  A home win against Gonzaga is nice, but otherwise there isn’t much meat on their resume.  They are 3-3 against the RPI Top 100, but they also don’t really have a bad loss.  T

he schedule doesn’t do them any favors with just one game against Iowa and Penn State in Big Ten play.  A few more losses could send Illinois careening toward the bubble.

Minnesota (Glockner: 11, Siegel/Ommen: 12)

The Gophers have performed better than most people expected following the loss of Trevor Mbakwe, but they are off to a 0-2 start in Big Ten play.  They are just 1-3 against the RPI Top 50, but they are 5-0 against teams ranked 51-100 (Bucknell, Fairfield, Indiana State, North Dakota State, and South Dakota State).

I’m not sure how realistic it is for many of those teams to remain in that range, which means the Gophers need to start picking up some quality wins to remain in the field.

Northwestern (Siegel/Ommen: 13, Glockner: First Four Out)

The good news is that the wins against LSU and Seton Hall look better now than they did earlier this year.  The bad news is they have been crushed by a combined 61 points in games against Baylor and Ohio State.  Eight of their 11 wins have come against teams outside of the RPI Top 150, which leaves them just 3-3 against everybody else.

Their next six games are critical with home games against Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue and road trips to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Tonight, the 15th ranked Hoosiers travel to their own personal house of horrors, The Breslin Center, to face 17th ranked Michigan State. It is the first Big Ten game for both teams.

Indiana enters the game an unblemished 12-0 while Michigan State is 11-2, having reeled off 11 straight victories after starting 0-2 with losses to North Carolina and Duke.

As always, we will be hosting The Assembly Call IU Postgame Show, which starts as soon as the final buzzer sounds.

The Toms, Izzo and Crean (Photo credit: Kevin Fowler, LansingStateJournal.com)

IU-Michigan State Game Info

• Date: Wednesday, December 28th, 2011
• Tip Time: 7:30 ET (6:30 CT)
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: TBD (according to Peegs’ Gameday page)
• Point Spread: Michigan State -5
• Over-Under: 140
• Postgame Show: The Assembly Call

Indiana is one of three Big Ten teams currently in the top 6 of Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Michigan State is 14th. Kenpom’s projections for the game have Indiana losing 71-69 with a 43% chance of coming away victorious.

If the Hoosiers are able to find a way to win, it would be their first win in the Breslin Center since Calbert Cheaney was wearing #40. Tonight, he’ll be on the bench watching Cody Zeller wear #40.

Indiana Injuries

Of course the biggest storyline for Indiana is injuries. Coming out of the Hoosiers’ win over UMBC, there were question marks about Will Sheehey, Derek Elston, and Verdell Jones.

Elston should be fine to play, but he will be forced to wear a protective mask due to the nose surgery he had to undergo after taking a stray elbow from Victor Oladipo.

As best I can tell, the latest update on Sheehey and Jones is this from Tom Crean’s recent press conference (via Inside The Hall):

On the team’s health:

“There is really nothing new to report. Will and Verdell stayed back and got some extra treatment before heading out for Christmas and they continue to get better.”

So that’s that. We’ll just have to see who suits up tonight at 6:30.

If I were to guess, I’d say Verdell plays and Sheehey doesn’t, but I am basing that on nothing more than watching Sheehey on the sidelines last week and the lack of any catastrophic news regarding Jones’ injury. I hope they both play, but more importantly I hope they come back 100%, whenever that is.

I know that we all want to get off to a good start in the Big Ten season, and it will be tough to do against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan even at full strength; but even if we go 1-2 or 0-3, it’s not the end of the world. This is a good, mentally tough team that – I think – can overcome a slow Big Ten start and still get to 10, 11, or even more wins. There is no reason to sacrifice the long-term to rush guys back who aren’t fully healed.

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready to go. The nonconference schedule was great, and far more enjoyable than I ever could have imagined, but now it’s time for conference play. The Hoosiers have only won eight games in conference play under Tom Crean, even regressing last year from four wins to three; 12-0 against non-Big Ten teams is nice, but the real season starts now. Hopefully it gets off on the right foot tonight.

IU-Michigan State Postgame Show

As soon as the final buzzer sounds, the postgame show begins. Feel free to listen right here:

Call-in number: (858) 365-5571

Use this number to call in and provide your thoughts on-air or to listen on your phone.

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IU-Michigan State Chat

Our postgame chat will start late in the 2nd half and continue on throughout the postgame show. We may or may not have a moderator tonight, but feel free to talk amongst yourselves, and the hosts will pop in from time to time to see what the hot topics are.

What I found is a staggering lack of road games for college basketball teams from major conferences.

College Basketball’s Dearth of Non-Conference Road Games

Through Sunday’s games, teams in the six “BCS” conferences have a combined record of 552-212.  However, just 122 of those 764 games (16 percent) have been true road games.  In fact, major conferences teams are an ugly 57-65 in games held on their opponents’ home floor.

Image credit: AP Photo/Darron Cummings via Crimson Quarry

Given that there are 74 teams within those six leagues, that averages out to 0.77 road wins per team and just 1.65 road games per squad.  Thirty-four of those 74 teams have played one or fewer road games, and eight of them have played none.  To look at it in a slightly different way, just 14 squads have taken more than two road trips through more than a month of the season.

As if these numbers didn’t seem bad enough, factor in that 24 of these road games were part of the Big Ten/ACC and Big East/SEC Challenges where the teams essentially had no choice in the matter.

In addition to the lack of quantity, there is also a lack of quality road victories for these teams, which shows that many of the road games being scheduled aren’t actually that challenging in the first place.

Here’s a quick rundown for each conference:

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ACC:

• The league is 9-14 in road games, with the “best” wins coming against Nebraska and Oregon, who ranked 86th and 96th in Sunday’s Pomeroy Ratings.
• Four of the nine wins have come against teams ranked 235th or lower.

Big 12:

• Teams from this conference have played just 10 road games so far this season, with three squads (Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma) yet to play any.
• In the league’s defense, the Big 12 is 7-3 in road games with five of the wins coming over Top 100 teams.
• Baylor’s exciting win over 19th-rated BYU is the conference’s best, but given that the 10 teams are a combined 60-1 at home, I guess I can understand their reluctance to leave.

Big East:

• Over half of the 16-team conference’s teams have played one or fewer road games.  Overall, they are just under .500 at 11-12, but only three of the victories have come against Top 100 teams.
• That said, Marquette’s win over Wisconsin at the Kohl Center is one of the most impressive road performances of the early season.
• UConn and Seton Hall both have just one loss but have yet to play a road game.

Big Ten:

• Six of the league’s 20 road games came during the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but the conference’s 11-9 record in those 20 contests is good for second best among the six leagues.
• The best of those 11 victories was Michigan State’s win at Gonzaga, but none of the others came against teams considered to be tournament-worthy.
• Minnesota has yet to play a true road game and won’t until Big Ten play begins.

Pac-12:

• Despite the fact this is easily the worst of the BCS leagues, the Pac-12′s 11-12 road record is tied for third best.
• However, the best wins were against 80th-ranked New Mexico State and the aforementioned Cornhuskers, with five of the victories comings against teams outside of the Top 200.
• For as bad as UCLA has been, they haven’t even played a road game yet, although with Pauley Pavilion being renovated, you could argue they haven’t played a true home game either.

SEC:

• Their 8-15 mark is the worst of any of the six major conferences, and only one of the wins (South Carolina’s triumph at Clemson) came against a Top 100 team.
• It is the only league where each team has played at least one true road game, and it also has the smallest percentage of total wins (65.7) coming from home games.

I also looked at teams ranked in the Top 25 that just came out today.  The 20 major conference teams in the rankings are a combined 17-9 in true road games.  Four of the Top 10 have no road wins at all, and three of the Top 11 haven’t even played a true road game.  In addition, eight of the 26 road games played were a result of one of the aforementioned conference challenges.  Of the 17 wins, seven are against Pomeroy’s Top 100.

The other five teams in the rankings (Xavier, Creighton, Murray State, UNLV, and Harvard) are a combined 14-4 on the road.  To be fair, two of those games came in the Missouri Valley/Mountain West event and nine of the wins have come against teams outside of the Top 150.  Still, they have four Top 100 wins to their credit, but just one of them came against a major conference team since scheduling is such a challenge.

What Are Coaches Thinking?

So what is the conclusion here?  I’m sure it’s not earth-shattering to know that major college coaches are reluctant to challenge their teams with road tests early in the season for fear of losing.  In fact, the Top 25 would actually indicate it’s in their best interest to just rack up wins at home or on neutral floors in the early going.

But if a coach’s job is to prepare their team for the rigors of the conference season and eventually the tournament, how exactly does playing nearly every game at home accomplish that goal?  The traditional argument is that there is nothing to gain from playing on the road since the best case scenario is winning a game most people think you should win anyway, and the worst case scenario is losing and having it held against you later.

I would argue just the opposite.

First off, the only way to even come close to preparing a team to play in front of a hostile crowd is to actually do it.  Too often teams panic at the first sign of adversity on the road and things snowball, turning a 4-0 run into a 12-0 run before you know it.  Even if Hollis Thompson had missed his last-second shot against Alabama, are you telling me the experience gained in that game wouldn’t serve them well later in the season?  I’m quite certain they will recognize more future benefit from that game than they did by blowing out NJIT by 40 at home.

In addition, every year we watch teams get skewered by the selection committee for not challenging themselves in the non-conference, and if the current schedules are any indication, that message isn’t getting through.  You obviously don’t want to schedule five road games and lose them all, but I would also argue that if you do that, you probably aren’t a great team to begin with.

I understand we are dealing with the delicate psyches of 19- and 20-year old kids here, and the balance between building confidence and challenging the team is a delicate one.  Still, the scale seems to have tipped too far in the other direction, and as a result, we have little idea how some of these teams might react to tough situations as conference play opens up over the next couple weeks.

What might be even more frightening is that a number of coaches are in the same boat and don’t know how their teams will fare once they hit the road for some of their most important games of the season.  The difference is they could have actually done something about it.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

This week’s topics include:

• More Pac-12 suspensions
• Jared Sullinger’s back injury
• The Missouri Valley
• The recent struggles of Florida and Alabama
• Our mutual admiration of Marquette
• Who wins the Big 12?
• Big Ten surprises (IU and Illinois)
• Thoughts on UK-UNC last weekend.
• We also looked ahead to a few key games this weekend.

Click play on the player below to listen:

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For the first time, both leagues have the same number of teams, so there are 12 games on this year’s slate.  (In the event of a 6-6 tie, the Big Ten will retain the Commissioner’s Cup in case you were wondering.  Spoiler alert: That shouldn’t be an issue.)

Here’s a look at the schedule for the two-day event.  I also wrote a preview for Run The Floor, which focuses more on advanced metrics and is a bit snarkier since the Managing Editor there is an ACC guy.

ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Tuesday, Nov 29th

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#15 Michigan at Virginia – 7:00 EST (ESPN2)

Expect this one to be played at a painfully slow pace, but the tip time is early enough that it shouldn’t put you to sleep. Virginia is among the most efficient teams on the defense end, while Michigan is just outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency, so something has to give.

The Wolverines have played better competition thanks to their time in Maui, while the Cavaliers recently returned from the Paradise Jam where they rebounded to win two games after a disappointing loss to TCU in the tournament opener.  UVA big man Mike Scott could give Michigan some trouble inside, but both teams are largely perimeter-oriented in terms of their personnel.

Tim Hardaway Jr. will be the best player on the floor, but I also like the contributions Michigan is getting from veterans Zach Novak and Stu Douglass as well as freshman point guard Trey Burke.  Still, the Wolverines have struggled to defend the three-point shot, and Virginia excelled from long range last season.

The other red flag has been Michigan’s propensity to put their opponents on the free throw line, and their 13th-ranked free throw rate suggests the Cavaliers will be able to take advantage of that deficiency.  I expect a close game, with Virginia having the slight edge based on concerns about Michigan’s defense.

• Prediction: Virginia

Northwestern at Georgia Tech – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Both of these teams participated in the Charleston Classic with Northwestern winning the tournament and the Jackets finishing 1-2.  It’s worth noting they played one of those games without leading scorer Glen Rice Jr., who was wrapping up a three-game suspension.  At 17.7 points per game, Rice leads five Georgia Tech players averaging over 8.0 points, but they aren’t getting much outside of those five guys.

Defense has been the Yellow Jackets’ calling card so far, but they will be tested by the duo of John Shurna and Drew Crawford, who have combined to score better than 40 points per game so far.  Keep an eye on how freshman point guard Dave Sobolewski handles Georgia Tech’s defense, as that will go a long way toward deciding the outcome.

The other area to monitor is Northwestern’s ability to limit second shots.  The Jackets have posted a strong offensive rebounding percentage and could give the Wildcats trouble on the glass.

• Prediction: Northwestern

Illinois at Maryland – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

For a number of reasons, the Terps are forced to play mostly young and/or inexperienced players, which has them off to a 3-2 start.  They lost two of their three games in Puerto Rico, to Alabama by 20 and to Iona by 26.

Maryland Sophomore Terrell Stoglin is emerging as a star with 20.2 points per game.  His shooting percentages have dropped across the board, but he’s the clear focal point of the offense with nearly twice as many field goal attempts as any of his teammates.  Maryland’s efficiency numbers have been absolutely brutal on both ends of the floor, leaving little reason for optimism there.

The Illini are also young, so neither team has a clear advantage in that regard.  Junior guard D.J. Richardson is off to a good start with 13.5 points per game to go with 40.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc.  Inside, soph big man Meyers Leonard is posting 12.3 points, 6.8 boards, and an impressive 3.2 blocks per game.  In a game with two relatively inexperienced teams, Illinois’ defense and inside play should be the difference.

• Prediction: Illinois

Miami (FL) at Purdue – 9:00 EST (ESPN2)

Had injuries not ravaged the Miami frontcourt, this would be a tougher matchup for Purdue given the composition of their team.

As it stands, the Canes are 4-1 while relying heavily on their talented backcourt of Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott, who combine to average 30.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists.  Miami is shooting just 40 percent from the field, which is not a good sign against a Purdue defense ranked in the Top 15 for defensive efficiency.

The Boilers picked up solid wins over Iona and Temple in Puerto Rico before falling to Alabama in the championship, but the best news is that Robbie Hummel looks healthy after missing last season with a knee injury.  He is pacing the team with 19.3 points per game while hitting 46.7 percent from deep.  Sharpshooter Ryne Smith has been red hot for most of the season, and Lewis Jackson has been terrific at the point.

Look for Kelsey Barlow to lock down either Grant or Scott and for the Boilers to emerge victorious.

• Prediction: Purdue

Clemson at Iowa – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

I won’t blame you if you don’t go out of your way to watch this one.  Clemson has losses to College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina, while Iowa just lost at home by 15 to Campbell.

The Tigers have four players averaging at least 9.8 points, led by guard Andre Young with 14.4 points per contest.  Clemson has been solid defensively, but they haven’t been impressive on offense, particularly in terms of getting to the free throw line.  Of course, they’re only making 64.5 percent once they get there, so maybe it’s by design.

Meanwhile, Iowa has eight players scoring at least 7.2 points per game, and as a team they are hitting over 39 percent from deep.  Like Clemson, they have struggled to get to the stripe, but they have really struggled defensively, and their opponents have routinely shot a high percentage from the field.

• Prediction: Clemson

#4 Duke at #2 Ohio State – 9:30 EST (ESPN)

This is easily the marquee matchup of the event’s first day.

The Blue Devils should have plenty of confidence coming off of their win in Maui.  Duke is hitting a ridiculous 45.9 percent from beyond the arc so far, led by Seth Curry at 57.1 percent and Andre Dawkins at 44.7.  They are two of the five Blue Devils scoring in double figures, but there hasn’t been a ton of production from others with the notable exception of Tyler Thornton’s two huge three-pointers to seal the win over Kansas.  Duke has been adept at getting to the free throw line, and they have been better than I expected on defense.

As for the Buckeyes, they have been outstanding on both ends of the floor, as evidenced by Pomeroy Ratings in the Top Five for both offensive and defensive efficiency. Jared Sullinger has picked up right where he left off with 18.8 points and 10.7 rebounds along with 63.3 percent shooting from the field.

Like most teams in college basketball, Duke will have a hard time containing him on the inside.  William Buford complements Sullinger outside where he’s averaging 17.7 points and hitting 50 percent from deep.  Throw in point guard Aaron Craft, who is one of my favorites guys to watch, and you have a really intriguing backcourt matchup between these two squads.

Ohio State has struggled with its long-range shooting, but its defense should be enough to disrupt Duke on offense.

• Prediction: Ohio State

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ACC/Big Ten Challenge Games on Wednesday, Nov 30th

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Indiana at North Carolina State – 7:15 EST (ESPN2)

While many predicted a rebuilding year for Mark Gottfried and the Wolfpack, they have played fairly well so far and came back from a healthy second half deficit to knock off Texas on a neutral floor.  After serving a three-game suspension to start the season, C.J. Leslie has been impressive with 16.7 points, 5.7 boards, 2.3 steals, and 2.3 blocks while hitting 63.0 percent from the field.  He leads six players scoring in double figures, including point guard Lorenzo Brown who is dishing out 6.5 assists per game as well.  While N.C. State has done a nice job taking care of the ball, they have struggled to hit and defend shots from beyond the arc.

The Hoosiers are off to their best start in years, thanks in large part to their hot shooting both inside and outside the arc.  Seven players are averaging at least 7.0 points, led by freshman phenom Cody Zeller with 14.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest. The biggest difference for IU has come on the defensive end where they have seen a sharp increase in their turnover rate.  They have also done a much better of job of not putting opponents on the line while getting there with much more regularity on offense.

This will be another solid road test for the Hoosiers but one they seem poised to pass based on their defense and outside shooting.

• Prediction: Indiana

Penn State at Boston College – 7:15 EST (ESPNU)

Unless you attended one of these schools or both of the other games are at commercial breaks, you probably aren’t tuning in for this one.

Both teams lost virtually everyone from last season’s rosters and are in full blown rebuilding mode this year.  Both teams have also been woefully inefficient offensively, with Boston College being the worse of the two on the defensive end.

With 19.1 points per game, Penn State guard Tim Frazier is the only Nittany Lion scoring in double figures, and he’s also pacing the team with 7.1 assists.  Freshman Patrick Heckmann leads BC with 13.8 points per game, but tons of questions remain on the roster, particularly once you get past their top four scorers.

Penn State’s offensive rebounding could be the difference in this one, but in the end, I simply can’t write any more about this game.

• Prediction: Penn State

Florida State at Michigan State – 7:30 EST (ESPN)

Like the previous matchup, these two teams are pretty similar.  The difference is that they both aren’t terrible, at least not on both ends of the floor.  These squads are built around defense and rebounding, while both struggle to put points on the board.

Seven Noles are scoring at least 7.0 points per game, but the team is shooting just 31.7 percent from beyond the arc.  The Spartans are actually worse, hitting just 23.8 percent of their triples.  They have also been unable to find a true point guard, which has led to an ugly turnover rate.  Draymond Green is averaging a double-double with 12.7 points and 11.2 rebounds, but his shooting has been poor and he’s trying to do too much on offense.

Aside from the battle on the glass, keep an eye on Florida State’s ability to get to the free throw line.  The Noles have a decent free throw rate, while Michigan State is putting opponents on the line with regularity.  Ultimately it’s hard to see Sparty solving their shooting woes against a team ranked 10th in effective field goal percentage defense.

I’m pretty sure it’s ok to plagiarize yourself, so as I said in my Run The Floor piece: In short, these two teams are mirror images of one another, which is ironic since watching either one play offense will make you want to break a mirror and start cutting yourself with the shattered pieces.  This one is a toss-up, so give me the home team!

• Prediction: Michigan State

Virginia Tech at Minnesota – 9:15 EST (ESPN2)

The Hokies gave Syracuse a scare in the NIT semi-finals before squeaking out a two-point win over Oklahoma State in the consolation game.  Their strength lies in the backcourt with Erick Green and Dorenzo Hudson leading the way with over 29 points per game between them.  Freshman wing Dorian Finney-Smith has impressed early in his career and is averaging 10.3 rebounds through six games.  On offense, the Hokies have struggled with turnovers but have done a nice job of getting to the stripe.

For Minnesota, the recent loss of forward Trevor Mbakwe is devastating in every possible way, as everything they did well on offense resulted from his relentlessness inside.  The Gophers are still searching for answers in the backcourt, but juco transfer Julian Welch played well in the Old Spice Classic.

Since the Hokies have struggled to force turnovers, it seems unlikely they will be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s biggest weakness, and without Mbakwe the Gophers will struggle to exploit Va Tech’s weakness on the offensive glass.  Instead, they will end up shooting more from the perimeter, where the Hokies are at their best on defense.

• Prediction: Virginia Tech

Wake Forest at Nebraska – 9:15 EST (ESPNU)

On the surface, this would appear to be another matchup of two teams picked to finish in the bottom of each league.

OK, that’s actually what it is, but I do think Nebraska could surprise a few teams in the Big Ten.  They have a pair of talented guards in Bo Spencer and Dylan Talley, who are averaging a combined 28.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 7.2 assists, to go with Jorge Brian Diaz inside.  Outside of solid shooting, their offensive efficiency numbers aren’t impressive, as they struggle to get to the line or grab offensive boards.  The Huskers also don’t force many turnovers, but otherwise they’ve been solid defensively.

The Demon Deacons are coming off of a 8-24 season and just went 1-2 in the Old Spice Classic.  C.J. Harris and Travis McKie each score better than 19 points per game and pace the offense.  Outside of the 6-foot-7 McKie, Wake isn’t getting much from its frontcourt.  They are doing a woeful job on the offensive glass and an equally poor job on the defensive boards, while their opponents are routinely shooting a high percentage from the field.

Look for the Huskers to take advantage of Wake’s poor defense to pick up the victory.

• Prediction: Nebraska

#7 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina – 9:30 (ESPN)

This will be an interesting contrast in styles to close things out. The Badgers play at one of the slower paces in all of college hoops, while North Carolina wants to get up and down the floor.

Wisconsin is the top team in terms of limiting opponents’ effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding, while the Heels have struggled to defend the three-point shot over their last few games.  The Badgers have Jordan Taylor (11.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 5.8 apg) and a bunch of guys no one has heard of, while UNC’s roster is full of McDonald’s All-Americans and lottery picks, led by Harrison Barnes (17.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg), John Henson (15.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.0 bpg), and Tyler Zeller (13.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg).

After being outplayed by UNLV on Saturday night, I will be interested to see how North Carolina responds.  They forced shots and got dominated on the glass by the Rebels, and they were unable to prevent penetration on defense, which led to a number of kick-outs for three-pointers.  That could be bad news against a Wisconsin team hitting better than 47 percent from downtown.

The Badgers were tested by BYU on Saturday before going on a second half run to win by 17 points, but going into the Dean Dome and winning is a pretty tall order.  Their defense will keep it close, but they will need big shooting days from Ben Brust and Josh Gasser to spring the upset. Given UNC’s defense so far, that isn’t as far-fetched as it might seem.

• Prediction: North Carolina

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Before I go on record with my predictions, here’s a quick look at how the Big Ten landscape has changed over the past five months:

Big 10 Offseason Updates

Illinois

Sophomore guard Crandall Head was recently suspended four games for a violation of team rules.  Two of the games he’ll miss are exhibitions, and either way, he was not expected to be much of a contributor this season.

Indiana

Hard luck guard Maurice Creek suffered his third major injury in less than two years when he tore his Achilles in October.  He is expected to take a medical redshirt and return to the Hoosiers next season.  Forwards Christian Watford and Tom Pritchard have both been limited with injuries but are not expected to miss any games.

Iowa

Juco transfer Anthony Hubbard had a change of heart and has left the program.  Hubbard spent four years in prison before averaging over 20 points and 10 rebounds at junior college last season.

Michigan State

Senior Delvon Roe’s chronic knee issues have forced him to end his basketball career.  Roe suffered a significant knee injury late in his high school career and was never able to fully recover.  The other big story has been the weight loss of center Derrick Nix.  You can be sure to hear more about this anytime MSU is on TV, a la Dexter Pittman a couple years ago.

Ohio State

Freshman LaQuinton Ross was deemed a non-qualifier by the NCAA.  Ross was the highest-rated incoming recruit for the Buckeyes.

Penn State

Sophomore guard Jermaine Marshall has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules, and senior Cammeron Woodyard underwent a minor knee procedure and is due back in mid-November.  Guard Tre Bowman has transferred to junior college after being removed from the team earlier in the summer.

Purdue

After two major knee injuries, Robbie Hummel returned to the court in Purdue’s first exhibition game.  He scored 18 points and grabbed seven rebounds, but most importantly, he said after the game that his knee was still feeling strong.  Teammate John Hart underwent foot surgery in July and is expected to miss the first part of the season.

Wisconsin

All-American candidate Jordan Taylor underwent minor ankle surgery in July, but he is expected to be at full strength for the season.

Big Ten Predictions: Standings

1. Ohio State

Jared Sullinger’s decision to return to school cemented OSU’s status as a Top Five team nationally this season.  His advanced stats are simply absurd.  Sullinger ranked in the top 50 for both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, posted a low turnover rate, and drew nearly seven fouls per 40 minutes.  Sullinger parlayed that into 267 free throw attempts and a stellar 65.1 free throw rate.

Fellow returnees William Buford, Aaron Craft, and Deshaun Thomas all posted strong efficiency numbers as well.  Buford hit better than 44 percent from deep and averaged 14.4 points, but he didn’t get many headlines with Sullinger in the mix.  When Evan Turner was out a couple years ago, he proved what a star he can be.  Craft had a terrific freshman year at the point, showing adept passing skills and tenacious on-ball defense.  Thomas is primed for a breakout season as his minutes increase so long as he can suppress his inner Iverson.  He finished with a 30.5 shot percentage, but he showed a real knack to snatch offensive rebounds and should be a double-digit scorer this year.

Another talented freshman class will provide depth.  Center Amir Williams gives the team great athleticism inside, and he may well starter alongside Sullinger.  Point guard Shannon Scott will be able to learn from Craft, and Sam Thompson gives OSU another talented player on the wing.  Boston College transfer Evan Ravenel gives Thad Matta an additional big body inside, and sophomore guard Jordan Sibert should see more playing time as well (and may even start) for what looks like Matta’s deepest team in recent memory.

The team will most certainly miss guys like David Lighty and Jon Diebler, but the talent is there for a Final Four run.

2. Wisconsin

The losses of Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil will certainly be felt in Madison, but I think by now we have learned not to sleep on the Badgers.  The fact that they still have possibly the nation’s best point guard in Jordan Taylor certainly doesn’t hurt.

Like Sullinger, Taylor is a statistical marvel, ranking 2nd in turnover rate, posting a 30.4 assist rate, and finishing 21st in overall efficiency.  Oh by the way, he averaged 18.1 points, got to the line 185 times, and hit nearly 43 percent from beyond the arc.

Outside of Taylor, guard Josh Gasser and forward Mike Bruesewitz are the top returnees.  Gasser actually ranked 28th in offensive rating, and he can do a number of things well as evidenced by his triple-double against Northwestern last year.  Bruesewitz had a few big games, but he simply has to be consistent this season as the go-to guy in the frontcourt.

Ryan Evans and Rob Wilson will be asked to play expanded minutes as well after disappointing seasons last year.  Evans earned rave reviews from Bo Ryan for his offseason work, so keep an eye on how he plays early on.  Another player to watch is soph Ben Brust, who might be the team’s best long-range shooter outside of Taylor.

A number of big men will vie for the opportunity to fill the void in the post.  Jared Berrgren is the only one with experience and should start, but don’t count out freshmen Evan Anderson, Jarrod Uthoff, and Frank Kaminsky.  Anderson was highly rated by some services in 2010 and has a year of practicing against the likes of Leuer and Nankivil under his belt.

The Badgers have averaged 26 wins over the past five season, consistently finishing among the nation’s best in offensive and defensive efficiency.  Despite some key losses, it’s hard to bet against a repeat performance.

3. Michigan State

On the surface it seems like the Spartans lost a lot with guys like Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers no longer on the roster, but this has all the makings of an addition by subtraction scenario for a team that seemed to lack chemistry last year.

Sophomore Keith Appling and Valpo transfer Brandon Wood will take over as the starting backcourt.  Appling gained valuable experience on the USA U19 team this summer, and he proved himself as a defensive stopper last season.  He also canned 41.1 percent from deep but will need to cut back on his turnovers as he slides in at the point.  Wood scored nearly 17 points per game last season and gives the team a reliable scorer in the backcourt.

The true leader and do-it-all player on the team is forward Draymond Green who averaged 12.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists last year.  He has continued to refine his game over the course of his career, but it’s hard to find a guy who is a monster on the glass but also posts better assist rates than most guards.

The aforementioned Derrick Nix will be counted on even more now that Roe has called it a career, and sophomore big man Adreian Payne will see expanded minutes as well.  Both guys posted terrific rebounding percentages last season, but Izzo needs at least one of them to become a reliable low post scorer.

The top newcomer is Branden Dawson, who was a McDonald’s All-American last season.  His mix of scoring and rebounding from the wing should earn him a spot in the starting lineup.  Freshman point guard Travis Trice will be a key reserve in the backcourt, and redshirt freshman Russell Byrd gives the team another guy who can knock down three-pointers if his oft-injured foot holds up.

Expectations aren’t nearly as high for this team, but Izzo seems particularly excited about this group of players.  The early schedule is brutal, but it will pay dividends when conference play begins.

4. Michigan

The Wolverines would be a couple spots higher and likely in the Top 10 nationally if point guard Darius Morris had returned, and the lack of an experienced facilitator is my biggest concern about this team.

Still, Tim Hardaway Jr. gives the team a prolific scorer they can rely on.  He showed significant improvement over the course of his freshman year and finished the season with 16 straight double-digit scoring efforts.  I expect him to be more aggressive off the dribble this season, which should lead to a healthy increase in his free throw attempts.

Zach Novak does a little of everything for Michigan, leading the team in both rebounding and three-point shooting while scoring 8.9 points per game.  Fellow senior Stu Douglass can also knock down threes, but true freshman Trey Burke is probably the team’s best option to replace Morris at the point.  Burke was the Ohio Mr. Basketball last season and brings great quickness and a pass-first attitude to the position.

Up front, Jordan Morgan was a revelation last season, hitting 62.7 percent from the field and frequently benefitting from Morris’ ability as a penetrator.  He’s also a talented rebounder, but foul issues are a concern.  Evan Smotrycz started 24 games as a true freshman and has bulked up in the offseason.  Despite his 6-foot-9 frame, he took better than 60 percent of his shots from beyond the arc where he converted 38.1 percent of his attempts.  Jon Horford, Al’s little brother, has put on weight as well and will be more of a factor inside.  Throw in sharpshooter Matt Vogrich and freshman Carlton Brundidge and John Beilein has a lot of different ways he can go with his lineup.

The loss of Morris may prevent them from being elite, but it doesn’t prevent them from finishing in the Top 25.

5. Purdue

While the return of Robbie Hummel is huge for this team, there are plenty of unknowns heading into the season.  Hummel averaged nearly 16 points and eight boards in 2009-10, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t put up similar numbers this year.  In fact, the Boilers might need him to do even more.

Lewis Jackson will provide continuity at the point after leading the team in assists last year.  He has the quickness to blow by opposing defenders, and he posted a strong free throw rate as a result.  Jackson isn’t much of an outside threat, but he plays to his strengths on both ends of the floor.  Sharpshooter Ryne Smith returns in the backcourt after hitting 44 percent from deep last season.  I guess that’s why 127 of his 143 shots came from outside the arc.  D.J. Byrd had a similar shot mix last year, but he should be able to move back to small forward this year after filling in for Hummel at the four last year.

Matt Painter needs either Travis Carroll or Sandi Marcius to step up inside to help fill the void left by the graduation of JaJuan Johnson, particularly on the glass.  If they don’t pan out, Painter could turn to freshmen Donnie Hale and Jacob Lawson for extended minutes.

There are plenty of options in the backcourt and on the wing.  Kelsey Barlow is a terrific defender but has shown a limited offensive game and was suspended late last season.  Terone Johnson showed a few flashes as a freshman and could become a double-digit scorer, while redshirt freshman Anthony Johnson has the potential to be a prolific scorer after using last season to add weight to his frame.  John Hart will also be in the mix once he returns from injury.

Matt Painter’s teams are known for their defense and toughness, and those things will have to carry the day until offensive roles are sorted out.

6. Illinois

The Illini lost five key members of last year’s team, but much like Michigan State, that isn’t necessarily a bad thing in some cases.

The strength of the team will be an experienced backcourt with Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson back along with Bradley transfer Sam Maniscalco.  The addition of Maniscalco at the point will move Paul back to his more natural shooting guard position, which should allow him to lead the team in scoring.  He has shown flashes as a complementary player in his first two seasons, but his time to shine is now.  Richardson hit nearly 39 percent from beyond the arc last season and should be a double-digit scorer this year.  An ankle injury cut short Maniscalco’s last season at Bradley, but he averaged at least 12 points and three assists in the previous two seasons.  His performance at the point will be critical for this team.

Inside, sophomore big man Meyers Leonard is in line for a breakout season after playing well for the Team USA U19 team this summer.  He’s a tremendous athlete with huge upside.  Tyler Griffey may start the season at power forward, but he’ll be pushed for time by freshmen Nnanna Egwu, Mike Shaw, and Ibrahima Djimde, all of whom can bring toughness and rebounding to the frontcourt mix.

Fellow freshmen Myke Henry and Tracy Abrams should be the top reserves on the wing and in the backcourt.  The newcomers aren’t short on talent or accolades, and how quickly they can mesh with the returnees will go a long way toward determining Illinois’ fate.

The summer’s exhibition trip in Italy gave them the opportunity to jumpstart that process and should pay dividends early in the year.

7. Indiana

Hoosier fans are getting restless, and while this will easily be Tom Crean’s best team, that isn’t saying a whole lot.

The addition of Cody Zeller is huge for the program for a myriad of reasons.  At 6-foot-11, he gives the team a bonafide inside player who can run the floor and force defenses to account for him at all times.  He’s added about 20 pounds since arriving on campus and will make an immediate impact.

Christian Watford joins Zeller up front.  Watford was playing his best basketball when he broke his hand against Michigan State, but he still led the team in scoring and rebounding while adding a reliable three-point stroke to his arsenal.  Crean would ideally like to play him at small forward, but that is dependent on players other than Zeller stepping up in the frontcourt.  Tom Pritchard and Derek Elston are the options there, but both have struggled with foul issues and consistency.

Jordan Hulls has assumed the role of team leader after becoming a consistent offensive threat last season.  He posted a terrific effective field goal percentage, and the team seemed to run better with him at the point.  The key for Crean is figuring out how best to use Verdell Jones.  His assist rate is solid, but he struggles with turnovers and shot selection at times.  It will be critical for him to play to his strengths as a senior.

On the wing, sophs Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey have provided some much-needed swagger and athleticism.  Offseason reviews have been positive for both of them, with Sheehey earning high praise from CBS writer Jeff Goodman.  The only positive from the Creek injury is that both guys will see more playing time.  Freshmen Austin Etherington and Remy Abell will also be in the mix along with three-point specialist Matt Roth.

On the surface, a long-awaited return to the NCAA Tournament still seems a year away, but the pieces are there to make a run if the team can make huge strides on the defensive end.

8. Northwestern

The potential to finish higher than eighth is definitely there, but it’s hard to understate the challenge of replacing Juice Thompson at the point.

They do have forward John Shurna, who battled various injuries last season but still led the team in scoring.  He knocked down 43.4 percent from three-point range and finished with stellar effective field goal and true shooting percentages.  Despite his slight frame, he does a decent job on the defensive glass and will finish as one of the most efficient players in the conference.

Drew Crawford has shown flashes and averaged just over 12 points last year, but he was an inconsistent scorer, never stringing together more than three double-digit games in a row.  Like Crawford, Jershon Cobb was more effective from two-point range, and he displayed solid potential as a freshman before a hip injury derailed him late in the season.

Luka Mirkovic is the team’s best option inside after posting 7.4 points and 5.2 rebounds.  He needs to be a more reliable scorer, with a number of his 11 double-digit scoring efforts sandwiched between sub-five point performances.  Davide Curletti will provide depth inside, as will freshman Mike Turner.

Freshmen Tre Demps and Dave Sobolewski will battle Alex Marcotullio for the opportunity to replace Thompson at the point.  Marcotullio has shown the ability to knock down three-pointers and finished strong last year with 78 points in the final six games.  Demps has been praised for his toughness and driving ability, while Soboloewski led his high school team to an undefeated season as a senior.

If someone can stabilize the team at the point, the Wildcats have an outside shot at breaking their long-suffering tournament drought.

9. Minnesota

The frontcourt duo of Trevor Mbakwe and Ralph Sampson III form the strength of Tubby Smith’s squad.

Mbakwe is a relentless rebounder on both ends of the floor and led Team USA in rebounding at the World University Games this summer.  In all, he posted 19 double-doubles last season, drew 6.2 fouls per 40 minutes, and patrolled the lane as a shot-blocker.

Sampson has been anything but consistent over his career and nearly turned pro after last season.  Like Mbakwe, Sampson gives the team a shot-blocking presence inside and averaged 10.2 points and 5.4 boards last year.

Athletic wing Rodney Williams rounds out the frontcourt, but he’s known mostly for his defense at this point.  As for the reserves up front, sophomore big man Mo Walker is back from a knee injury suffered last season, and freshman Elliot Eliason was a two-time Gatorade Player of the Year in Nebraska.

Given how poorly this team played once point guard Al Nolen went down, consistent backcourt play will be critical for the Gophers.  Juco transfer Julian Welch will get a crack at the starting point guard job, as will sophomore Maverick Ahanmisi and true freshman Andre Hollins.  Things aren’t any more stable at the two, with Chip Armelin, Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman all in the mix.  No returning player shot over 30 percent from beyond the arc, which puts even more emphasis on an unproven set of backcourt players.

Tubby Smith has talked about employing a more uptempo attack, but that approach could prove questionable unless some stability develops among the guards.  Someone has to be able to get Mbakwe and Sampson the ball in order to maximize the team’s best assets.

10. Iowa

With six of the team’s top seven scorers back from a team that played better than their 4-14 conference mark would indicate, there is reason for optimism in Iowa City.

The backcourt duo of Bryce Cartwright and Matt Gatens gives Coach Fran McCaffery a solid foundation.  Cartwright averaged nearly six assists per game and ranked in the Top 10 nationally in assist rate.  He needs to improve his shooting but gives the team a solid floor leader.  Gatens has done a little of everything at Iowa over his career, and if he can recapture the shooting touch he showed from long-range as a freshman, he should best his 12.6 points per game from last year. Eric May and Devyn Marble will be the key backcourt reserves, and even though May was the team’s best three-point shooter last year, both posted some pretty ugly efficiency numbers.

The cornerstone inside is Melsahn Basabe who averaged 11.0 points and 6.8 rebounds as a true freshman.  He’s a bit undersized at 6-foot-7, but he posted strong rebounding and block percentages, hit over 57 percent from the field, and did a nice job of getting to the free throw line. The best is yet to come from him.  Devon Archie will likely get the first crack at the final starting spot, but Zach McCabe and Andrew Brommer will be in the mix for a team that McCaffery says will go 11 deep.

The top freshmen will be sharpshooter Josh Ogelsby and versatile wing Aaron White.

11. Nebraska

The team lost leading scorer and assist man Lance Jeter from a team that barely missed the tournament last year, but the other four starters return.

The Huskers do have a solid big man in center Jorge Brian Diaz, who averaged 10.5 points and 4.4 boards last season  Diaz actually shot better from the field than he did from the free throw line, but Doc Sadler is expecting a big season from him as a junior.  Fellow big man Brandon Ubel posted the highest efficiency rating on the team and played his best basketball late in the season, and Andre Almeida gives Sadler another big body inside.

In the backcourt, LSU transfer Bo Spencer should slide into Jeter’s spot in the starting lineup.  He averaged 14.5 points and 2.7 assists with the Tigers in 2009-10 and will likely lead the Huskers in scoring this year.  Toney McCray and Brandon Richardson also return as starters.  McCray was the team’s top outside shooter last season and was a solid rebounder as well, particularly on the defensive glass.  Richardson is a terrific defender but isn’t a huge offensive threat.

Caleb Walker and Ray Gallegos also return in the backcourt, but the newcomer to watch is Dylan Talley.  He started his career at Binghamton and averaged nearly 24 points at junior college last season.

12. Penn State

With only one player back who averaged over three points per game, it’s going to be a long season for first-year head man Patrick Chambers.

Tim Frazier is the team’s top returnee after posting a Top 50 assist rate last season.  He’s also solid on defense, but it’s hard to figure out who will be on the other end of his passes.  The aforementioned Cammeron Woodyard and Jermaine Marshall played sparingly last season but are expected to see expanded minutes when/if they return from injury and suspension.  Billy Oliver returns inside, and forwards Sasa Borovnjak and Jon Graham are both back after redshirting last season.

Five newcomers also join the team and will have a chance to earn minutes given the lack of returning players.  Forward Ross Travis and guard Trey Lewis are the two most likely to contribute as true freshmen.

Chambers is an up-and-comer in the coaching community, but this is a full-scale rebuilding effort.

Big Ten Predictions: POY and All-Conference Team

All-Conference

• Draymond Green, F, Michigan State
• Tim Hardaway Jr., G, Michigan
• Trevor Mbakwe, F, Minnesota
• Jared Sullinger, C, Ohio State
• Jordan Taylor, G, Wisconsin

Player of the Year: Jared Sullinger, C, Ohio State

It was tough not to pick Jordan Taylor here, but the Buckeyes are a clear favorite in the league due in large part to Sullinger.  He’s an absolute beast inside, particularly on the glass, and few players in the league can keep him away from the basket.

Sullinger focused on slimming down and getting even stronger over the summer, so he clearly wasn’t satisfied with a freshman year that saw him score 17.2 points per game and grab 10.2 rebounds.  As I mentioned above, his advanced metrics are off the charts, and quite simply he’s the best big man in the country.

Freshman of the Year: Cody Zeller, F, Indiana

While normally a pick like this might get me labeled as a homer, you’d be hard-pressed to find a freshman in the conference who will make a bigger impact on his team.  Zeller gives the team a viable inside option who can run the floor and control the defensive glass.  He’s also been lauded for his passing and can step back and make mid-range jumpers.

From a playing time standpoint, the Hoosiers have limited options inside, which will ensure that Zeller sees major minutes right away.  I’m still not sold on IU as a tournament team, but if they’re even in the discussion, Zeller is sure to be a major reason why.

Image source: ITH

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Michigan State v Nebraska

#11 Michigan State, appearing in this column for the third straight week, will travel to Lincoln, Nebraska to face the #14 Cornhuskers, who are also being featured in the Big Ten Game of the Week for the third time.

The Spartans stunned #6 Wisconsin 37-31 last week on a miracle throw from Kirk Cousins that bounced off star receiver B.J. Cunningham before being caught by Keith Nichol, who forced his way into the end zone for the winning score.  The win puts Michigan State (6-1, 3-0 Big Ten) in the driver’s seat in the Legends Division, as they are the only team in the division undefeated in conference play.

Nebraska is coming off a relatively easy 41-14 victory over Minnesota.  The Huskers racked up 346 yards on the ground, employing a conservative game plan after jumping out to a huge lead before halftime.

Things to consider for Saturday

Michigan State

Let’s start with some key facts about the visitors. Last week, Michigan State was able to do two things that no other team has done this year to Wisconsin – force Russell Wilson to commit turnovers and have success offensively with both the pass and the run.

Kirk Cousins threw for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Cunningham, in addition to having the crucial assist on the game’s final score, tallied 102 yards and a score.  As I wrote last week, the Cousins-Cunningham connection is one of the most consistent and dominant in college football.

The Spartans split carries between Edwin Baker and LeVeon Bell, and while Baker was the dominant back two weeks ago in the victory against Michigan, it was Bell who played well against Wisconsin, with 87 yards on 16 carries.  On the season, the two backs have combined for over 800 yards and 8 touchdowns.  They haven’t been the best rushing duo in the Big Ten (Montee Ball and James White own that honor), but they provide enough balance for Michigan State to keep opposing defenses honest.

Most impressive last week was Michigan State’s ability to limit Russell Wilson.  The Spartans pass rush was effective (even without suspended starting defensive end William Gholston), sacking Wilson 3 times and forcing him to run more often than he had been accustomed to.  One of those scrambles resulted in a safety, as Wilson was flagged for intentional grounding in the end zone.  The safety represented the first score Michigan State, and it jump started the offense, which scored 3 unanswered touchdowns to close the first half.

The Spartans also fixed the discipline problems that marred their win in Ann Arbor the previous week, committing no penalties in the entire game.

Nebraska

Nebraska didn’t have to do much to defeat Minnesota last week.  The Huskers exerted their authority in the ground game.   The hapless Gophers were down 34-0 by halftime, and it could have been worse.  Nebraska had two drives stall inside Minnesota’s 5-yard line.

Eric Francis - Getty Images

One potentially important note from the game concerned Nebraska dual-threat quarterback Taylor Martinez.  Martinez struggled throwing deep passes.  His accuracy has been inconsistent this season, and though he wasn’t forced to throw much last week it was expected that in limited opportunities he would have performed better.

Defensively, Nebraska took care of business.  They gave up 14 points, but both touchdowns were scored in the second half with the game already decided.  They also scored a defensive touchdown on a fumble return by Austin Cassidy.

This week will be their first major test since the loss of standout defensive tackle Jared Crick to a season-ending torn pectoral muscle.

What Michigan State must do to win

The Spartans surprised most people with their big win last week, and to win again this week they will need to do many of the same things that made them successful against Wisconsin, while avoiding the “trap game” stigma and the hostile crowd in Lincoln.

As always, the key to success for the Spartans is on defense.  They will get Gholston back, and they showed two weeks ago that they are able to handle running quarterbacks by containing Michigan’s Denard Robinson.  They must employ the same blitzes that worked on Robinson and Wilson and force Martinez to make mistakes, something he has shown a propensity for already this year.

Michigan State also needs to be able to control the game better with their running game.  They showed great ability to come back from a deficit last week, but once ahead they were unable to stave off Wisconsin’s comeback attempt.  They were able to keep pounding the run with a lead against Michigan, but Nebraska’s defense, even without Crick, is better than Michigan’s.

Lastly, in addition to keeping Cunningham as the focal point of the passing game, they need to continue to find creative ways to get senior wide receiver Keshawn Martin the ball.  Martin scored on a reception and a running play – which seemed like a bit of a broken play – last week.  He is a slippery runner who usually stays underneath the defense, but has potential to slip through the defense.

What Nebraska must do to win

Nebraska needs to be able to make plays in the passing game, pure and simple.  I expect them to be able to run the ball early, but as the game goes on it will get much more difficult to run if Martinez is erratic.  Since Nebraska’s defense has been mediocre, it is important for them to control the ball as long as possible.  Running back Rex Burkhead has been great this season, so I expect him to get a heavy workload.  I don’t think Martinez will enjoy huge success running himself, especially with the entire defense geared toward pressuring the quarterback.

Both running backs for Michigan State have been prone to fumbles this season.  The Huskers need to force a fumble or two, as Cousins hasn’t been a turnover-prone passer this season.  If they can force Bell or Baker to put it on the turf, they will reap the benefits on the scoreboard.

Finally, Nebraska must control Michigan State’s special teams unit.  The Spartans play a more high-powered version of Tressel-ball at times, controlling field position with a strong kicking and return game.  The Huskers need to be able to establish good field position and give the offense as short of fields as possible.

Michigan State-Nebraska Prediction

I’ve picked against the Spartans in each of the last two weeks.  Call it cowardice, but I won’t do it again.

I expect Michigan State to stymie Martinez and pick up the win.  I do expect Burkhead to have a good game, but I think Michigan State will build a big enough lead to force the Huskers into throwing more than they want to, and that will result in a few bad possessions and more scoring opportunities for the Spartans.

If Michigan State pulls this one off, their schedule sets up very nicely (Minn, @Iowa, Indiana, @NW) for a chance to run the table in the Big Ten.

Final Score: Michigan State 30, Nebraska 23

Now it’s your turn, both to provide your prediction and to play the the single greatest alternative to fantasy sports and gambling known to man:

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Michigan State-Nebraska Game Info

• Michigan State-Nebraska Date: Saturday, October 29
• Michigan State-Nebraska Kickoff Time: 12:00 EST
• Michigan State-Nebraska TV: ESPN
• Michigan State-Nebraska Point Spread: Nebraska -4
• Michigan State-Nebraska Over/Under: 49

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Image credit: cbssports.com, hollandsentinel.com, msnbc.com, ncaa.com

One could just as easily ask, “Why isn’t Cincinnati in the Big Ten,” or, “Why isn’t Ball State in the Big Ten?” (Actually, don’t be surprised when you see my “Why isn’t Iowa State in the Big Ten?” article.)

But Notre Dame is different.

Not only is Notre Dame situated near the center of the Big Ten’s geographical footprint, but it also has existing football rivalries with Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue.

Notre Dame is third on the list of the all-time winningest college football program, joining Big Ten schools Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State in the top ten. (I’m focusing on football because football was largely responsible for the formation of the major athletic conferences and because football continues to drive conference expansion and realignment today.)

The Big Ten, more than any other major conference, cherishes and guards its academic reputation. And Notre Dame, by almost any measure, is an academically elite institution.

More significantly, the Big Ten wants Notre Dame.

The richest conference in America—a league that dominates the region in which Notre Dame resides and whose members get to be part of a prestigious collective of top-flight research universities—has been courting Notre Dame for two decades, and America’s favorite Catholic football-playing university has consistently responded, “No  thanks. We’re good.”

Why?

Fighting Irish football players raise their helmets to Notre Dame students, who passed a resolution opposing Big Ten membership. (Source: Wikipedia)

Last weekend, Syracuse and Pittsburgh announced their intentions to leave the Big East for the ACC. Rumor has it that Connecticut and Rutgers could follow.

Notre Dame needs the Big East to provide a home for it’s non-football programs. Were the Big East, as we know it now, to fall apart (and it looks now like it probably won’t), the Irish could find themselves in need of a new conference for their basketball, baseball, softball, soccer, and Olympic sports teams.

Notre Dame may even have to eschew football independence to maintain an affiliation with a major conference. (I doubt that we’ll hear Father Jenkins announce in a press conference, “We’ve decided to join the Horizon League in all sports except football.”)

The ESPN ticker on Monday cited sources who said that, if Notre Dame football were to join a conference, it would join the ACC, not the Big Ten. Yahoo’s Dan Whetzel earlier this week wrote a column explaining why Notre Dame should head for the ACC. He cites population trends (Rust Belt states are growing slowly or not at all, while southern and mid-Atlantic states are blowing up) and argues that Notre Dame would stand out as the ACC’s top game day destination (as opposed to being in the Big Ten, where the Irish would have to compete for that distinction with Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, etc.).

In the ACC Notre Dame would join former rivals Miami and Florida State and private, sectarian schools such as Duke and Boston College.

Would Notre Dame really join the ACC before the Big Ten, given its location and historic rivalries? For that matter, why isn’t Notre Dame in the Big Ten already? The Irish played a century’s worth of elite football in the middle of the Big Ten’s neighborhood. Why didn’t the league bring in Notre Dame decades ago?

It’s complicated.

There have been times when Notre Dame would have done anything short of blasphemy to get into the Big Ten, and there have been times when the Big Ten would have done anything short of renaming itself the Archdiocese of Football to add Notre Dame to its roster. But there has never been an occasion when both parties were interested in each other at the same time.

Rockne’s Crusade

When the presidents of Northwestern, Purdue, and the Universities of Chicago, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin founded the Intercollegiate Conference of Faculty Representatives (later known as the Big Ten) in 1896, Notre Dame—though growing in prestige and enrollment—was just one of many private, sectarian universities in the Midwest.

Knute Rockne: He wanted the Big Ten, but the Big Ten didn't want him. (Source: Wikipedia)

In 1887 a group of football players from the University of Michigan taught the game to Notre Dame students. Though Notre Dame’s football team had some success in the late nineteenth century, the program was hardly remarkable.

That changed in 1913 when Jesse Harper took over as head football coach. In Harper’s first season, Notre Dame scored wins over national powers Army, Penn State, and Texas. In 5 seasons under Harper, Notre Dame went 34-5-1.

The program’s success continued after Knute Rockne took over as head coach in 1918. During Rockne’s tenure, Notre Dame completed five undefeated seasons and won the 1925 Rose Bowl.

In 1926 Notre Dame, having established itself as the home of one of the nation’s elite football programs, applied for admission to the Big Ten. The league had expressed interest in expansion and was considering adding Michigan State. Rockne visited the Big Ten schools, making his case for Notre Dame. Michigan was opposed to adding the Catholic school from South Bend; Chicago and Illinois weren’t warm to the idea either.

(Chicago football coach Amos Alonzo Stagg accused Notre Dame of using its prep school as a four-year training program for its football team. In truth, Notre Dame no longer operated a prep school by the time it applied for Big Ten membership. Michigan coach Fielding Yost accused Notre Dame of developing players for five or six years in its intramural program before promoting them to varsity.)

Though the student paper at the University of Minnesota published an editorial in favor of adding Notre Dame and Nebraska (and changing the name of the conference to the Big 12), the league voted 6-4 against expansion. Opposition to Notre Dame could have stemmed from anti-Catholic prejudice, a dislike of Rockne, rumors of impropriety, or a combination of the three. And even then there were some in the Notre Dame community who didn’t want the school to give up its athletic independence.

(You can read the full account of Notre Dame’s 1926 appeal for Big Ten admission in chapter 23 of Shake Down the Thunder, available through Google Books.)

When the University of Chicago left the Big Ten in 1946, Notre Dame—along with Nebraska, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, and Marquette—were considered as possible replacements. In 1949 the league settled on Michigan State.

A Changing Landscape

Notre Dame and the Big Ten would flirt with each other again, perhaps most notably in 1999.

Today only 4 Division I-FBS schools are independent in football: Notre Dame, Army (which was a football-only member of Conference USA before the Great Realignment of 2004–2005), Navy (which the Big East was reportedly preparing to invite as a football-only member before Pitt and Syracuse bolted), and BYU (which left the Mountain West earlier this year and is reportedly one of the top schools on the Big 12′s wish list). All four schools are members of conferences for all sports other than football. (Notre Dame is in the Big East; Army and Navy are in the Patriot League; and BYU is in the West Coast Conference.)

As recently as the early 1990s, there was nothing unusual about being an independent, in football or in general. 26 schools were football independents during the 1990 season, among them Notre Dame, Florida State, Penn State, Miami, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia.

The following year the Big East decided to sponsor football and welcomed former independents Miami, Rutgers, Temple, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia as football-only members. Penn State would soon join the Big Ten, Florida State the ACC, and South Carolina the SEC. Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Southern Mississippi, and Tulane would form Conference USA.

Television dollars were largely responsible for the change in landscape.

From the birth of television until the 1980s, the NCAA negotiated all television contracts for its member schools. After a series of legal battles (including one spearheaded by Notre Dame itself), member schools won the ability to enter into their own agreements with television networks. Since TV networks preferred negotiating with conferences instead of with dozens of individual schools, many independent schools decided they were better off joining leagues.

But Notre Dame didn’t need a conference to strike a football deal with NBC in 1991.

Before long Notre Dame was the only high-profile football program to maintain its independence. In 1995, the Irish joined the Big East in all sports other than football.

“Catholic, Private, Independent”

Meanwhile the Big Ten, which had added Penn State as an eleventh member, was courting Notre Dame as a twelfth. In December 1998 the university’s Faculty Senate voted 24-5 in favor of pursuing membership in the Committee on Institutional Cooperation (CIC), the academic wing of the Big Ten.

The Big Ten schools, along with the University of Chicago (who left the league in 1946) founded the CIC in 1958 as a research cooperative. But the cost of joining the CIC would be Notre Dame’s athletic teams—and particularly the football team—joining the Big Ten, and that was not a price that the school was willing to pay.

In February 1999 then Notre Dame president Father Edward Malloy released a statement including the following:

The process of sharing information with the Big Ten and CIC has been of great value to Notre Dame. It encouraged us to consider a variety of issues integral to our pursuit of academic and athletic excellence, as well as to our distinct mission as a Catholic university. We have great respect for both the academic stature and the athletic integrity of the Big Ten universities.

Why, then, not take the ultimate step in partnership and become a member of the Big Ten? That answer, in the end result, transcends the many individual factors, academic and athletic, that weigh either for or against conference affiliation. Ultimately, the answer lies in the institutional identity of Notre Dame, its overarching definition. Just as the Universities of Michigan or Wisconsin or Illinois have core identities as the flagship institutions of their states, so Notre Dame has a core identity, and at that core are these characteristics—Catholic, private, independent.

Malloy noted that Notre Dame would have been, by far, the smallest Big Ten member. Northwestern, who has an undergraduate population similar to Notre Dame’s has three-times as many postgraduates.

Notre Dame also would have been the only Big Ten school with a religious affiliation. (Northwestern was founded by the Methodist Episcopal Church but severed formal ties with the church decades ago.) All of the existing Big Ten schools—save Nebraska, which got booted earlier this year—are members of the American Association of Universities (AAU), a collective of 59 of the top research universities in North America.

When you look at the AAU’s roster, you’ll notice that many of the nation’s best religiously affiliated schools, including Notre Dame, are not on it. The Catholic University of America, for instance, left the AAU in 2002, saying, “it has become clear that CUA and the vast majority of AAU institutions are moving forward but on different trajectories.”

Last year Notre Dame’s student senate adopted a resolution opposing membership in the Big Ten and CIC. The resolution expressed “concern about Notre Dame aligning itself with 11 other Midwestern universities ‘who do not embody our unique national, Catholic and undergraduate characteristics.’ ” Students feared that membership in a regional conference might threaten the school’s identity as a national university (which doesn’t make sense to me, but whatever) and that membership in the CIC—which emphasizes research and graduate programs—would threaten the school’s emphasis on undergraduate education.

At any rate, Notre Dame’s decision to remain independent and reject the Big Ten’s overtures is about more than just football.

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If the Big East had imploded earlier this week, as some assumed it would, Notre Dame would have a tough decision to make. But as long as the Big East remains a viable basketball (and field hockey, etc.) conference,  as long as the Big East doesn’t give Notre Dame a join-us-in-football-or-leave ultimatum, and as long as NBC agrees to broadcast Notre Dame football, the Irish have no need for the Big Ten (or the ACC, for that matter).

But if you’ve ever wondered why they didn’t join the Big Ten at some other point in history, now you know.

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Josh Tinley is the author of Kneeling in the End Zone: Spiritual Lessons From the World of Sports. Follow him at twitter.com/joshtinley or send him an e-mail.