Big 12 Tournament Prediction: Will Kansas Ar-buckle Under Four-Peat Pressure?

If you came to this page looking for picks and predictions for the 2009 NCAA Tournament, we’ve got you covered.

Follow the link to our 2009 NCAA Tournament Game-by-Game Picks all the way through the Final Four.

Or, you can view them by region:

• Midwest Region Breakdown and Predictions
• East Region Breakdown and Predictions
• South Region Breakdown and Predictions
• West Region Breakdown and Predictions

And if you actually came to this page to review our 2009 Big 12 Tournament predictions, pardon the interruption and continue reading below.

So, if you didn’t realize from my Big 12 Tournament Preview post earlier this week, I have always thought one thing when I look at Kansas head coach Bill Self: Jon Arbuckle. I was a huge Garfield fan when I was a kid, and Self is the spitting image of Garfield’s toolish owner.

Luckily for Kansas fans though, Self has been much more successful as a college basketball coach than Jon Arbuckle ever was…at anything.

The Jayhawks enter the 2009 Big 12 Tournament as the champions of the last three, and winners of six of the twelve Big 12 tournaments that have taken place. I don’t think many people expected Kansas to have the #1 seed this year, considering what they lost off of last year’s NCAA Championship team, but here they are.

Will Kansas achieve a very impressive Four-Peat? Or will they ar-buckle under the pressure and allow a new Big 12 Tournament champion to emerge?

Before I give you my predictions, let’s break down a few important things first: a) a few links on the Big 12 Tourney and to help you buy tickets to the Big 12 or NCAA Tournament; b) the bracket, which I will update as the games become final; and c) the current odds for each team. Here we go:

Links:

• Big 12 Tournament History: Past Champions and MVPs
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 Big 12 Basketball Tournament Tickets
• StubHub Tickets: 2009 NCAA Tournament Tickets

And here are the odds of winning the 2009 Big Ten Championship game for each team (according to OffShoreInsiders.com):

• Oklahoma odds: +140
• Kansas odds: +150
• Missouri odds: +350
• Texas odds: +800
• Texas A&M odds: +800
• Kansas State odds: +1000
• Baylor odds: +2500
• Nebraska odds: +2500
• Field (any other team): +2500

And now, let’s break down the 2009 Big 12 Tournament game-by-game until we come up with a hypothetically predicted Big 12 champion:

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Wednesday Games

What a disappointment Baylor has been this season. Coming off last year’s success, Scott Drew was the favorite of some IU fans to become the new head coach in Bloomington. And with guys like Curtis Jerrells and LaceDarius Dunn back, Baylor was a trendy pick to be a Top 25 team in 2008-09. However, the Bears are 17-13 (5-11 in conference) after starting the season 12-2. Still, I think the Bears’ ability to score (despite recent struggles), and their postseason experience from last year, makes them a darkhorse in the Big 12 Tournament. Nebraska just beat Baylor 66-62 in each team’s final regular season game, but I think Baylor pulls off the mini-upset here and advances. Baylor wins.

Colorado went 1-15 in conference play and sucks. Texas only went 9-7, but this is a solid 20-10 team that will play in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if this is even a game. Texas wins.

Oklahoma State finished in the four-team quagmire at 9-7, and this is a team that can really score and that is playing well. In their last 7 games, OSU is 6-1 with a four-point loss to Oklahoma being the only blemish. They spanked Iowa State earlier this year and the Cyclones, losers of 5 out of their last 7, have done nothing to show they have improved since the first meeting. Oklahoma State wins.

As a die-hard Hoosiers, Texas Tech has been my 2nd-favorite team since Bob Knight took over there. Now that Pat Knight is the head coach, the Red Raiders remain a favorite of mine. Unfortunately, Tech has sucked this season, going 3-13 in conference play and not stopping anyone on D. A&M beat them twice, scoring 79 each time. Of course, Texas Tech did recently beat Kansas by 19, so anything is possible. I hope Texas Tech proves me wrong, but I think Texas A&M wins.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Thursday Games

Assuming that my Wednesday picks prove true, my darkhorse Baylor will be playing Kansas in Round 2. Can the Bears win? Probably not. Kansas has really played well in conference play, minus the hiccup against Tech. They beat Baylor earlier this year, and while I think the Bears will make this a good game, I don’t think they play enough D to win it. Kansas advances.

Texas would play Kansas State in my hypothetical 2nd round. Both teams went 9-7 in conference play and both teams went 20-10 overall. However, Kansas State beat Texas in their one meeting in Austin. This game is a really toss up, so I’m going with Kansas State — because I live in Dallas and Longhorn fans can be really annoying. Not a very scientific way to pick a victor, I know, but there just is not much separating these two teams.

An Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchup in the 2nd round would be fun. Most people think, and I agree, that Oklahoma is the best team in the conference. Had Blake Griffin not gotten hurt, they might not have dropped that back-to-back set against Texas and Kansas. Still, the Sooners have lost three of their last five. But they beat Oklahoma State twice during the regular season, and are now back at full health. I think Griffin and the Sooners will be on a mission to prove that they are the best team in the Big 12. Oklahoma wins.

Texas A&M-Missouri in the second round would be a rematch of both teams’ final regular season game, in which A&M won by 10 at home. In the two previous games, Missouri lost to Kansas by 25 and then beat Oklahoma by 9. Will the real Tigers please stand up? The Aggies are playing very good defense of late and have won six in a row entering the tourney. I think the Aggies score another win over Missouri and advance to the semi-finals.

Big 12 Tournament Bracket and Predictions: Friday Games

The battle of Kansas would ensure if my above predictions prove true. They played twice this season, with Kansas winning by double figures each time. And while I think Kansas State will pull of the win over Texas, the Wildcats have not scored an impressive victory since February 7th at Texas A&M. The Jayhawks will march on to the Big 12 Championship game.

Oklahoma-Texas A&M could be a very good game, and one the Aggies could win. However, Oklahoma won both regular season meetings and this would be A&M’s third game in three days. I think their Big 12 Tournament run ends here, as the Sooners and Blake Griffin will just be too much to overcome with less-than-100% legs.

Big 12 Tournament Championship Game on Saturday

It is the matchup that everyone wants to see: Kansas versus Oklahoma. You know Blake Griffin wants a chance to avenge the February 23rd loss, and a pissed off/motivated Blake Griffin is not a good thing for any opponent. Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12 when healthy, and is still gunning for a #1 seed. I think the beat Kansas, and beat them convincingly to win the Big 12 title.

So there you go — one man’s first impression, quick hit predictions for the 2009 Big 12 Tournament. As always, I suggest that you run to your nearest bookie and bet completely the opposite way, but that’s your call. Game 1 between Nebraska and Baylor tips off in a little over an hour, so I’ll be updating the bracket above as the day and week goes on.

2008 Hesiman Trophy Candidates

Well December is here, which means that the Heisman Trophy winner will be announced soon. Personally I’m predicting a Big 12 winner, but that is as far as I can go because both Sam Bradford of OU and Colt McCoy of Texas have had excellent seasons and presented excellent cases as candidates. I am leaning towards Sam Bradford, but either one could win the Heisman Trophy, and be more than justified.

Sam Bradford has thrown for 4468 yards and 48 touchdowns in an extremely tough Big 12 conference. In the last 5 games, Oklahoma has hung at least 60 points on their opponent. These opponents include the second ranked Texas Tech and the twelfth ranked Oklahoma State. This impressive season could mean that Sam Bradford will be the Heisman Trophy winner.

Colt McCoy has also put his name in the hat for the Heisman Trophy this season, throwing for 3445 yards and 32 touchdowns while rushing for 10 more on his own. He has truly been the MVP for the Longhorns, who were kept out of the National Championship game by the flawed BCS, but that’s another story.

Other candidates include Florida’s Tim Tebow, Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell, and Iowa’s Shonn Greene.

Last years Heisman Trophy winner, Tim Tebow, has also had a great season with 25 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing touchdowns to boot. This is more impressive considering the utter class that is the SEC, however his 2515 passing yards combined with his TD rate simply cannot compare to either Sam Bradford or McCoy.

Graham Harrell, who leads the always impressive Texas Tech offense, is a candidate who also had a good year. With 4747 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes, Harrell is no slouch, but his team’s crushing loss to Oklahoma definitely hurt his chances for the Heisman Trophy.

Finally the NCAA’s leading rusher for the season, Shonn Greene definitely deserves to be considered a candidate. Greene rushed for at least 100 yards every game this season. With 1729 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, Greene is certainly no slouch, but 2008 was the year of the quarterback, and Greene does not have a chance at this year’s Heisman Trophy.

The Heisman Trophy winner will be announced on December 15, 2008 in New York.

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Is Michael Crabtree Putting off Declaring for the NFL Draft to Stay at Texas Tech?

Breaking News: Michael Crabtree has declared his intention to enter the 2009 NFL Draft. Follow the link to view the current list of underclassmen entering the 2009 NFL draft.

While researching the story I just posted about Marion Barber’s injury status (which includes incredible video of a pregame speech given by Tashard Choice during his Georgia Tech days), I came across another article from the Dallas Morning News that I found to be interesting.

According to the Morning News, Texas Tech sophomore Michael Crabtree told RedRaiderSports.com that he is “not at all” considering declaring for the NFL Draft and plans to stay at Texas Tech for another season. The Morning News article quotes Michael Crabtree’s father, however, as saying that the star wide receiver has not yet made a decision concerning his NFL future.

“He hasn’t told me that,” the elder Crabtree said. “We’re pretty much leaning toward coming out. But it’s up to him. If he wants to come back and win championships, I won’t be mad at him.”

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As a college football fan, I love to see great players stay in school for as long as possible. So there is a part of me that would love to see Michael Crabtree stay in school. (And remember, even though he is only a sophomore, he did redshirt his first season. So he will be three years removed from his senior year in high school and thus eligible for the draft.)

But let me make this perfectly clear: There is NO WAY that Michael Crabtree will be returning to Texas Tech next year, no matter what he says now. Despite this reality, however, if he felt that he had to make a statement one way or the other, I do applaud Crabtree for saying he will come back to school. As Texas Tech prepares for its bowl game and the final game of its most successful season in school history, he should be excited and caught up in the moment and saying he will stay.

Why is there NO WAY that Michael Crabtree will stay for another season? Let me count the reasons:

1. With the NFL labor situation up in the year, and the threat of a rookie salary cap looming, there will be a mad rush of underclassmen declaring this season to try to get a rookie contract under the current system. This is especially true for players who are projected to be first round picks. Michael Crabtree would most likely be a top-10 pick if he declares. It makes too much financial sense for him not to do so. The current market situation for rookie contracts is known. There is a great unknown past next year. Why risk it?
2. His quarterback is leaving. Graham Harrell is a senior this year and there is no proven starter behind him. How could Crabtree’s production not take a dip with a new QB replacing perhaps the best passer in school history, no matter how talented Crabtree is? I can’t imagine Michael Crabtree wanting to live through the growing pains of a new QB.
3. His coach may not be back. While I do expect Mike Leach to end up returning to Texas Tech, his name has been bandied about for every open job this year besides President of the United States. It does not look like he will be going Washington, but Auburn is now reportedly interested. I think Texas Tech will ante up a new contract and keep Leach, and this situation should be resolved by the time Michael Crabtree makes his decision; but in the immediate moment, it remains unclear. And if Leach does somehow leave, would Michael Crabtree really want to play for another coach who is not such an oracle of the spread offense?
4. Potential for injury. Did anyone see Michael Crabtree’s ankle turn in the Oklahoma game? I thought it looked the worse than the actual injury turned out to be. Just let Crabtree watch this video of Ball State wide receiver Dante Love getting injured and changing his football future in one random play, and I think the decision will be made right there.

Selfishly, I think it would be great to see Michael Crabtree in school for another year. But I think he would be a fool to come back. Add up the potential for a rookie cap, the ubiquitous chance for injury on every play, and the loss of his QB, and I think Michael Crabtree will ultimately end up feeling the same way — no matter what he says right now.

It’s Time for Bedlam: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State Preview and Prediction

The next “Game of the Year” in the Big 12 is upon us, as Bob Stoops and the Oklahoma Sooners travel toStillwater to take on the 40-year old man (Mike Gundy) and the Oklahoma State Mothers…of Children in the latest installment of the Bedlam Series.

I know, I know — Mike Gundy is now 41 and his press conference rant is over a year old. Still, it does not make it any less funny. In fact, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane before we jump into the preview. But rather than listen to Mike Gundy rant about some “garbage” newspaper story, let’s watch him provide a weather report in the heart of a nasty storm.

And now, onto the serious stuff.

Here are the particulars for today’s Bedlam Series game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State:

Matchup: #3 Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) at #12 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-2)

Where: Stillwater, Oklahoma

Time: 8:00 ET

TV: ABC

Announcer Pairing: Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters

Point Spread: Oklahoma -7 ½

Over-Under: 72

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What’s at stake: This game will help determine who goes to the Big 12 Championship Game from the Big 12 South division.

Texas took care of Texas A&M on Thursday night, as expected. This means that if the favorites hold serve, with Oklahoma beating OSU and Texas Tech beating Baylor, then there will be a three-way tie in the Big 12 South. By tiebreaker rule, whichever team is tanked higher in the BCS Standings would then go on to play Missouri in the Big 12 Championship Game. This scenario is the only possible way that Oklahoma could play in the Big 12 Championship.

If Oklahoma loses today and Texas Tech beats Baylor, then Texas Tech will play in the Big 12 Championship based on its victory over Texas. If Texas Tech loses to Baylor and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, Texas goes to the Big 12 Championship game because the Longhorns beat Oklahoma earlier this year.

So there’s just a little bit at stake tonight in Stillwater.

Let’s take a quick look at what some of the “experts” are predicting:

Dennis Dodd, Senior Writer at CBS Sportsline: Oklahoma State 31 | Oklahoma 23

“I had this vision Saturday night of Mike Gundy sitting on a trunk somewhere drawing up ball plays as he watched OU on TV out of the corner of his eye. People are just assuming that Oklahoma is going to cruise past the Cowboys. The reason it won’t is Kendall Hunter. Gundy will use its All-America-worthy back to control the clock. OSU’s defense is underrated. The fans will be out for blood.”

For the record, the other four prognosticators at CBS Sportsline all picked Oklahoma to win.

John Tamanaha, Official Prognosticator at NBCSports.com: Oklahoma 48 | Oklahoma State 31

“With Mike Gundy calling the shots, Zac Robinson hooking up with Dez Bryant, and Kendall Hunter running the rock, Oklahoma State is more than capable of getting into a shootout with Oklahoma, especially at home in Stillwater. But the Cowboys won’t be able to come up with enough stops to stay within striking distance in the fourth quarter.”

Stewart Mandel, College Football Oracle at SI.com: Oklahoma 48 | Oklahoma State 24

“Theoretically, the Sooners are walking into a “hostile” atmosphere — except there will be 15,000 empty seats due to OSU’s inane policy requiring fans to buy season tickets in order to attend this one.”

And, for the record, 83% of the fans who had voted by 10:15 ET this morning had picked Oklahoma.
Sounds reasonable to me.

Here is why I think Oklahoma will win:

1 – Karma is a bitch

Oklahoma State instituted an insane policy this year that no single-game tickets would be sold for the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game, instead forcing people to buy season tickets. Now, it is estimated that there will be 10,000-15,000 empty seats – for one of the biggest games of the season! Mike Gundy wants to talk about something being garbage? That’s garbage. No way the cosmic forces of college football allow Oklahoma State to win under such circumstances.

2 – Bob Stoops is better than Mike Gundy

It’s that simple. Look no further that the two team’s respective performances against Texas Tech. Graham Harrell made Oklahoma State look foolish, and Mike Gundy may as well have let T. Boone Pickens call the offensive plays. We all know what Stoops and the Sooners did to Texas Tech. Mike Gundy may be a man, but Bob Stoops is the man in the Big 12.

3 – The BCS is a bitch

If Oklahoma wins and Texas Tech wins, as explained earlier, all hell breaks loose. As any college football fan knows, the evil and diabolical BCS demon is not happy unless it has created as much carnage and controversy as possible. Texas Tech and Oklahoma will both win today, forcing the three-way tie in the Big 12 South that will be determined by politics and BS. And nothing says BCS better than politics and BS.

My prediction: Oklahoma 49 | Oklahoma State 31

And now, if you are a betting man, I’d run out an bet every last dollar on Oklahoma State pulling off the upset. I’m as accurate with my predictions as Lee Corso is sane. Just remember that I picked Texas Tech over Oklahoma as you click away from his prediction as fast as humanly possible.

Report: Contract Extension for Gary Pinkel at Missouri

University of Missouri football fans might be able to breathe a bit easier soon.

According to ESPN.com’s Pat Forde on Friday, head coach Gary Pinkel has agreed to terms to a contract extension that will give him a nifty pay raise. However, a Mizzou spokesperson told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch on Friday that no such agreement has been reached, though one is imminent.

Few details were revealed by Forde, but the extension is believed to put Pinkel’s annual salary around $2.5 million per year. It bears noting that Forde is a 1987 University of Missouri alum, so it’s safe to say Forde is well-connected when it comes to Mizzou and perhaps the Post-Dispatch is taking a cautious approach before reporting any such accord.

Regardless of which source you would like to believe, keeping Pinkel is paramount for the Tigers to continue the momentum they have built in recent years.

Mizzou is 21-4 under his watch the last two seasons and beat Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl last season. The Tigers have a shot for getting a BCS nod next month in the Big 12 Conference title game for the second straight year. The Tigers have already sewn up the Big 12 North Division crown.

Mizzou will undoubtedly want to keep Pinkel and his top assistants in the fold. With the Tigers faced with the reality of not having senior quarterback Chase Daniel, senior safety William Moore and senior tight end Chase Coffman next season, there’s also the chance of Mizzou losing standout sophomore do-it-all Jeremy Maclin to the NFL draft next spring. Since Maclin is a redshirt sophomore, he will be three years removed from high school and eligible for the draft. With Pinkel and his staff in tow, the Tigers won’t have to worry about having any recruiting pipelines severed with a new staff coming aboard.

The Tigers are 9-2 heading into the Nov. 29 showdown with rival Kansas at Arrowhead.

Meanwhile, Missouri’s neighbor to the east — Illinois — will have to brace itself to see if offensive coordinator Mike Locksley stays in the fold. Locksley, according to ESPN.com’s Heather Dinich, interviewed for the head coaching position at Clemson recently.

Locksley, in his fourth season at Illinois, is a highly-regarded recruiter who came to the Illini along with head coach Ron Zook. Locksley was on Zook’s staff at Florida from 2003-04.

Locksley hails from Washington, D.C., played his college ball at Towson and spent six years as an assistant at Maryland. He is a big reason why the Illini have been able to recruit better in the Maryland/D.C. area. Wide receiver Arrelious Benn, backup quarterback Eddie McGee and cornerback Vontae Davis all came from D.C., where the Illini have pulled eight players from.

Game of the Week: Texas Tech-Oklahoma Preview and Prediction

With apologies to KVB, the college football Game of the Week is in Norman, Oklahoma, not in Columbus, Ohio. True, the Michigan-Ohio State game has more history and is a bigger game on a yearly basis; but the battle for Big 12 supremacy in Norman this weekend could very well be the Game of the Year when all is said and done.

Texas Tech comes into Saturday night’s matchup (at 8:00 ET on ABC) with an 10-0 record, a #2 ranking, and off of back-to-back wins over top 10 teams Texas and Oklahoma State. The Oklahoma Sooners will defend their home turf Saturday with a 9-1 record, a #5 ranking, and a loss to Texas (in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl) as their only blemish of the year.

Both teams have offenses that are pretty much ridiculous. Texas Tech, powered by the lethal combo of Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, is #1 in the nation in passing yards per game with 438.6, and they are #2 in overall offense. Oklahoma is led by superstar sophomore Sam Bradford and is #4 in total offense and #3 in passing offense. Holy crap I am getting excited for this game.

If the over-under is anything less 100, take the over.

What are the keys to victory? I’ll run down a few in the preview and then offer up a prediction. But first, chime in with your prediction:

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Texas Tech-Oklahoma Preview: Keys to victory for Texas Tech

1 — Emotion and Mindset

For two straight weeks, Texas Tech has played “the biggest game in school history” and they have won both of them. The Texas game was a knock down, drag out fight that they were able to pull out by the skin of their teeth with an incredible touchdown pass from Graham Harrell to Michael Crabtree in the final seconds. It is the kind of play a team makes when they are that season’s “darling of destiny.” (Case in point: think about Tennessee in 1998 and how they won a game on a phantom pass interference and another when Clint Stoerner fumbled while attempting to run out the clock. Some teams just get all the breaks for an entire season.)

Texas Tech needed no breaks against Oklahoma State, however. They thoroughly whooped the Cowboys, who failed to get Dez Bryant enough play-making opportunities. Now, the Red Raiders are 10-0 and have spent a two weeks since the Texas win listening to everyone tell them they are the greatest thing since sliced bread. Not to mention, they have played with a very high level of emotion and concentration for two consecutive weeks.

Can they maintain it? That is the key question. Norman will be a hostile environment and Oklahoma usually jumps out to early leads with their high-octane offense. If Texas Tech gets down, they can’t panic or lose their emotion. Emotion and mindset have been a strength of Texas Tech all year. It needs to be again.

2 — Pressure Sam Bradford to force turnovers

In Oklahoma’s lone loss this year, Sam Bradford was picked off twice by Texas. He has only been picked off four times in their other 9 games. Texas fell behind early but was able to come back because of timely special teams plays and turnovers. Sam Bradford has been spectacular through nearly two seasons, but has shown a propensity to lose his poise late in games or when Oklahoma is down. Texas Tech needs to capitalize on this and get to him every chance they can.

3 — Establish a ground game

Texas Tech is known for its aerial assault, but Texas won because they stayed committed to running the football. Colt McCoy threw 35 passes and as a team they ran it 35 times. Texas Tech doesn’t need such an even split (McCoy ran it 14 times himself, while Harrell won’t do that), but they do need to try to control the ball, especially late if they have a lead. The top two running backs for Texas Tech average over 5 yards per carry. The Red Raiders will rack up points behind the superb ability of Graham Harrell in leading the spread, but they can salt away a victory by pounding a struggling Oklahoma defense with the run.

Texas Tech-Oklahoma Preview: Keys to victory for Oklahoma

1 — Special frieking teams

Oklahoma has been plagued by special teams breakdowns all season long. They had Texas dead to rights with a 14-3 lead and all of the momentum before Jordan Shipley gave the Longhorns a glimmer of hope with a kickoff return for a TD. Oklahoma scored on the very next possession and could have been up 21-3. Instead, it was 21-10, and Texas got it back to 21-20 before the half. The Sooners dominated the first half in every way, but led by only one at the break. Take away the special teams failure and the game could have had a drastically different outcome.

Oklahoma almost always jumps out and has their offense clicking early. Texas Tech’s D has played well this year, but the offenses in the Big 12 this year, and Oklahoma specifically, have proven they could rack up points with 15 defenders on the field. If Oklahoma gets up early at home, they need to maintain their lead. If a special teams play can spark a struggling Red Raiders team, it could be deja vu all over again for Oklahoma in a big game at home.

2 — Sam Bradford needs to be better than Graham Harrell

In each of the key Big 12 games this year, the quarterback who has played better has been on the winning team. Colt McCoy outdueled Sam Bradford in Dallas, and Texas won. Graham Harrell made one more play that Colt McCoy in Lubbock, and Texas Tech won. Graham Harrell was better than Zack Robinson, Colt McCoy was better than Chase Daniel, and so on it goes.

Sam Bradford’s statistics are incredible. But the one whisper I continuously hear from people who watch the Big 12 closely is that Sam Bradford, while he has the prototypical body and arm of an NFL quarterback, lacks the moxie and winning ability of Colt McCoy and Graham Harrell. This game will be Sam Bradford’s chance to prove that he is a legit Heisman contender and that he can lead a team to victory in a hue game. He failed against Texas, but Oklahoma needs him to be better than the de facto Heisman front-runner right now, Graham Harrell. And part of Sam Bradford being able to do this will be the ability of his offensive line to protect him adequately.

3 — Bob Stoops needs to be better than Mike Leach

Last week, Texas Tech kicked the snot out of Oklahoma State because Mike Leach had his team mentally, emotionally, and tactically more prepared to play than Mike Gundy did. Oklahoma State inexplicably did not use Dez Bryant correctly, and their defense had no answer for Texas Tech. The defense part is not so egregious, because no defense can stop Texas Tech.

But no defense has been able to stop Oklahoma either. And while Texas Tech possesses one of the better defense’s Oklahoma has faced all year, they shouldn’t be able to contain Sam Bradford and the balanced attack of the Sooners — if Bob Stoops doesn’t screw it up, that is. His offense has been superb all year, but coaches sometimes outthink themselves and try to do “special” things in big games. I think this is what has made Mike Leach such a great coach: Texas Tech does what it does and it doesn’t seem to change from the preseason to regular season. They just execute and understand their identity.

Bob Stoops, however, does not have the reputation of a great big game coach; and I think part of the reason why is that he makes the same mistake other coaches make by not staying committed to doing the things they do well. Stoops and the Oklahoma coaches need to let Sam Bradford run the show and not outthink themselves. You know that Mike Leach will do so for Graham Harrell, which is why Graham Harrell has been so good in key spots.

Texas Tech-Oklahoma Prediction

I was really leaning towards picking Oklahoma when I began writing this. They are at home, Texas Tech has to be emotionally drained from the last two weeks, and Oklahoma’s offense is, overall, every bit as good as Texas Tech’s.

But there are two key differences between Texas Tech and Oklahoma: Graham Harrell-Mike Leach and Sam Bradford-Bob Stoops.

Graham Harrell has proven that he is clutch this season, and that he is the type of zone where he believes that he can make every play. Sam Bradford couldn’t do this in his biggest test of the season against Texas. And despite Bob Stoops longer and more decorated coaching resume, I actually trust Mike Leach more in a big game to have his team ready to play, and to not lose its identity. Bob Stoops and Sam Bradford can change my mind with a win Saturday night, but I’m not ready to bank my credibility as a prognosticator on it.

The Sooners are favored by somewhere around 6, but I’m taking the Red Raiders outright (and, like I said, the over if it’s anywhere under 100).

Texas Tech 56 – Oklahoma 52 in an another 2008 Big 12 instant classic.

[tags]texas tech red raiders, oklahoma sooners, college football, big 12[/tags]

Missouri Head Coach Gary Pinkel Would be Wise to Not Look Toward Washington

As soon as word came down that Tyrone Willingham was out as the football at the University of Washington, speculation immediately began to build about the possibility of UDub making a run at Missouri coach Gary Pinkel.

It would be a case of career suicide if Pinkel decided to drop what he has built at Mizzou and head for the Pacific Northwest.

Pinkel spent 13 seasons as an assistant coach of the Huskies (1976, 1979-90) under former head coach Don James. Pinkel followed Don James to the Seattle school after playing his college ball under James at Kent State, in their native state of Ohio from 1970-73.

Gary Pinkel does have a history at Washington. But does that outweigh what he has built at Missouri?

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