This is the third post in Kurt’s epic quest to identify the NFL’s Ultimate Franchise Player. For an explanation of his methodology for choosing each franchise’s ultimate franchise player, and then how you and he will choose the NFL’s Ultimate Franchise Player from that list, click here.

To see all the category page for this series, of which there will be one for every franchise, click here.

Previous selections: ARI | ATL

Quoth the Raven, nevermore.

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride – at least recently. (Never mind that no Maid of Honor could ever possibly look bad in purple and black with some gold thrown in, but I digress…)

Just merely getting deep into the playoffs has gotten old quickly for the Baltimore Ravens, whose Super Bowl 35 win now seems like a lifetime ago – and whose close loss in the recent AFC Title Game in New England is just the most recent and painful in the franchise’s attempts to get back to the big game, let alone win it.

The truth is, the Ravens have had a pretty good run in their 16 years of ‘existence’.  The franchise is 140-115-1 all-time, 124-84 since the 1999 season. Since 2001, the Ravens’ biggest problem has been simply their location in the American Football Conference. Except for the Raiders 2002 AFC title, the rest of the conference’s Super Bowl appearances have been scarfed up by the New England Patriots (5 times), the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers (3 times), and the Indianapolis Colts (2 times).  During the same period of time the NFC has seen the likes of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, and Seattle Seahawks all manage to sneak into the Super Bowl.

It is well-known that the franchise lived as the Cleveland Browns prior to 1996, but as part of Art Modell’s controversial deal to move the team east, the franchise had to basically go Witness Protection and leave its previous identity behind. As a result, all-time Cleveland records remain with the current Browns franchise.  It is an unprecedented arrangement not used with any other relocated NFL franchise, including the Cardinals, Rams, or Colts (although in hindsight the Colts franchise should have sought a new identity after moving to Indianapolis). Thus, for our purposes, Cleveland Browns records remain with the current Cleveland franchise and will be used to eventually determine the Browns Ultimate Franchise Player.

It should also be noted that the Ravens’ Ring of Honor is dedicated to all Baltimore football legends, including the Ravens and the Baltimore Colts.

There is a fantastic and diverse selection of candidates to choose from for Ultimate Franchise Player despite the relatively brief history of the franchise. Maybe not so much at the so-called skill positions, but the O-line and the defense, in particular, are well represented.

One trend you will notice: this team drafts incredibly well, especially in the first round.

So who joins Larry Fitzgerald and Deion Sanders as the third automatic qualifier in MSF’s eventual 64-player UFP field? One player soars above the field, figuratively and literally, blowing up entire planets in his wake.

UNDER CONSIDERATION

Joe Flacco (QB 2008 – Present)

The Ravens do not have a great QB lineage.

The top-ten ascending up to #2 reads as follows: Jim Harbaugh, Jeff Blake, Eric Zeier, Anthony Wright, Elvis Grbac, Tony Banks, Steve McNair (who did lead the team to a 13-3 regular season record in ’06), Vinny Testeverde, and finally Kyle Boller, who believe it or not is #2. That did not leave too high a bar for Flacco to clear, and he is by far the franchise’s best quarterback ever with 80 TD passes over just 46 interceptions in his four-year career.

Flacco will continue to take flack until he becomes elite and leads his team to a Super Bowl, but the current version isn’t too bad in his still young career.

Jamal Lewis (RB 2001-06)

If you are looking for the best single-season ever by any Ravens player, look no further than Jamal’s 2003 season in which he rushed for 2,066 yards (one of six ever to go over 2,000 in a single season), including 295 in one game (still #2 on that all-time list). The only knock I can put on that season is that Jamal did nearly one-quarter of his damage on one team, with exactly 500 yards in two games v. the Browns.

In all, Jamal went over the 1,000 yard rushing mark in seven of his nine years in the league, including the ’07 and ’08 seasons with the Browns.

More fun facts on Jamal: he’s been out of the game a couple years now but is still just age 32; he was 21 when he rushed for 100 yards in Super Bowl XXXV;  and Jamal ranks #380 on Pro-Football-References Elo-Rater, checking in just ahead of Ahman Green.

Todd Heap (TE 2001-10)

You may not even know Heap is still in the league, but he caught 24 balls for the Arizona Cardinals this year. Heap’s career in Baltimore reached its apex in 2005-06, when he caught 75 and 73 passes. He also has a nice career mark of 11.8 yards per reception, which is excellent for a tight end. Where Heap falls short is that he never had an elite 100-catch type season and never caught more than seven TD’s in a campaign.

Matt Stover (K 1996-2008)

A lot of people no doubt wish he was still on the Ravens payroll for the AFC Championship. In all, Stover played 18 years for the Browns/Ravens, and rightfully is enshrined in the Ravens’ Ring of Honor. For his career Stover was 83.7% on his field goal attempts.

Shannon Sharpe (TE 2000-01)

Although he played the vast majority of his career in Denver, Sharpe gets mention here since he was a valuable part of the Super Bowl 35 winning team. Sharpe accounted for 810 and 811 receiving yards in his two years in Baltimore.

Adalius Thomas (ILB 2000-06)

Thomas became one of the leagues most sought after free agents following the 2006 season after recording 28 sacks in his final three years as a Raven.  He actually earned his first Pro Bowl bid in 2003 as a special teams player, recording 23 tackles in that role. Thomas’s performance fell significantly after signing a 5-year/$35 million contract with the New England Patriots in 2007.

Haloti Ngata (DT 2006-present)

Yet another first-round draft pick the Ravens cashed in on after a rare bad season, Ngata was the 12^th overall pick of the 2006 Draft. He overcame personal obstacles on his way to the pros, losing both of his parents during his time at the University of Oregon.  At 6’4”, 350 lbs, the former rugby player has become one of the best at his position in the NFL, earning Pro Bowl bids in each of the past three seasons.

O.J. Brigance (LB 2000)

As was the case with Pat Tillman in my Arizona Cardinals installment of the UFP, Brigance gets a special place in his franchise’s history in the courage wing.

He played 14 years in all of pro football, including with the Baltimore Stallions’ 1995 Canadian Football League championship squad and the Ravens 2000 Super Bowl team, the latter of which was part of a seven-year NFL career.

Since retiring from football, Brigance has worked in the Ravens front office and has been bravely battling Lou Gehrig’s Disease (ALS) for the past several years, a disease so horrible I wouldn’t even wish it on Jerry Sandusky.

Rod Woodson (CB 1998-2001)

Like Shannon Sharpe, Woodson’s Hall Of Fame career is more synonymous with another organization (Steelers), but Woodson was still an elite player in Baltimore, intercepting 20 passes in four seasons and earning two Pro-Bowl selections.

Michael McCrary (DE 1997-2002)

McCrary was a two-time Pro-Bowler in his six years with the Ravens, recording 35 sacks between 1997-99. Also recorded 13.5 sacks with the Seahawks in 1996.

Chris McAlister (CB 1999-2008)

Unfortunately he had his legal troubles since leaving football a couple years back, as it’s been reported that he spent lavishly during his playing career. McAlister was yet another high first-round draft pick that had a great career in Baltimore, being selected tenth overall in ’99. During the pre-draft process McAlister ran a 4.53 40-yard dash and recorded a 38-inch vertical leap.

McAlister was a two-time All-Pro in his time with the team and once returned a missed field goal 107 yards for a TD.

Peter Boulware (OLB 1997-2005)

Still holds the franchise record with 15 sacks in 2001, and he recorded 70 sacks for his career. Yet another draft pick that worked out for the Ravens in the late 1990’s that provided the nucleus for the 2000’s Baltimore teams. Boulware went into politics after football and now serves for the Florida Board of Education.

THE FINAL TABLE

Ray Rice (RB 2008-present)

This is contingent on Rice remaining with the Ravens, as his contract is up for the 2012 off-season, but all signs point to Rice staying put. Although the majority of his career remains unwritten, 5,885 combined yards in the past three seasons rank amongst the best in league history, and it was accomplished before turning age 25.

On the downside, except for a 159-yard rushing day in a Wild Card win in New England a couple years back, Rice has ran into tough sledding in the playoffs.

Jonathan Ogden (OT 1996-2007)

At 6’9” 345 lbs, Ogden was simply one of the most imposing physical specimens in NFL history. With the exception of his rookie year, Ogden was a fixture at the Pro Bowl for the following 11 seasons, earning All-Pro recognition nine times.

He is also a member of the NFL’s All-Decade team for the 2000s and ranked #72 on the NFL Network’s list of top-100 players ever.

Terrell Suggs (OLB 2003-present)

Another first-round draft choice the Ravens do not regret, he slid to #10 in the 2003 Draft as other teams were scared off by a slow 40-yard time. Suggs has move than overcome that perceived black mark on his resume, recording 82.5 sacks in his nine year career thus far.

Ed Reed (FS 2002-present)

57 interceptions over ten years. A three-time league leader in passes intercepted. He has returned INT’s back 106 and 107 yards for scores in his career. One of the best center-fielders ever to man his position in the NFL.

Reed is ranked #44 by Pro-Football-Reference, but only 88^th on the NFL Network’s Top 100 list, which aired during the 2010 season. Reed is going to be square on the fence in regards to earning an at-large bid for MSF’s Ultimate Franchise Player tourney.

Ray Lewis (1996-present)

Between Reed and Ray, the Ravens have plenty to thank the University of Miami for.

Lewis is simply the Brett Favre of his era on the defensive side of the ball, and he ranks right up with Cal Ripken and Johnny Unitas as Baltimore’s greatest athlete ever.

I could rattle off stats all day, but I’ll just mention the one noted during the telecast of the 2012 Pro Bowl: Ray is the only player in the last three decades to record 40+ sacks and 30+ interceptions in a career.

Lewis is fully expected to return for a 17^th season, and why not? There is still plenty left in the tank, and Lewis remains as intense as anyone on the field.

AND THE BALTIMORE RAVENS’ ULTIMATE FRANCHISE PLAYER IS…

Ray Lewis is ranked 18^th on the NFL Network’s Top 100 list and probably goes up a couple of more notches based on his continued play over the past couple of seasons.

Although I do not heavily weigh character in my selection of UFP’s, the murder rap that Lewis faced following a party after Super Bowl 34 in Atlanta still must be mentioned. Lewis was eventually cleared of the murder chargers, but he was convicted of obstruction of justice. Ultimately, the other co-defendants in the case were also eventually cleared. As far as Lewis is concerned, give him credit for steering clear of trouble in the 12 years since.

Ultimately I will not hold this case against Ray Lewis, but I have to bring it up since my next installment of UFP (Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, you know who’s next in alphabetical order…) will involve a much more controversial case.

RAY LEWIS

Each game has its own fair share of storylines, but there is one common factor that affected the outcomes of both games: special teams.

Cundiff’s Miss

For the Ravens, their mishap came in the kicking game. Before I get to that, let’s recap the last drive for the Ravens.

They were down 23-20 with 2:46 left, and the Pats’ had the ball. The defense stepped up and forced a three and out, which gave the Ravens the ball back with 1:44 remaining on the clock.

The drive started on the Ravens’ own 21-yard line. After running five plays, they advanced the ball to their own 48 yard-line, and called timeout with 58 seconds remaining. In their next two plays the Ravens got the ball to their own 14 yard-line after a 29-yard completion to Anquan Boldin, followed by a 9-yard completion to Boldin.

In the box score, the next play is read as an incomplete pass from Joe Flacco to Lee Evans. In actuality, it was a season-saving pass breakup by Sterling Moore of the Patriots. Flacco threw a perfect pass to Evans in the endzone, who actually had control of the ball. Before he could hold the ball long enough to establish a touchdown, Moore came in and punched the ball out. If Evans had just held on tighter, or fallen to the ground, the Ravens would have been heading to Indy next week.

The snap was just fine, but the kick went wide left.

Williams’ Muff and Fumble

The mishap for the 49ers did not have to do with the kicking game, but instead with the punt return game. Ted Ginn Jr was out with an injury, so Kyle Williams stepped in for him.

With the 49ers leading 14-10 in the fourth quarter, the Giants were forced to punt with around ten minutes left in the game. The ball was bouncing and Kyle Williams got very close to the ball, but he seemed to avoid it. The ruling on the field was that he did not touch it. Undeterred, Devin Thomas picked it up and ran it into the endzone, as he was convinced that the ball hit Williams. The Giants challenged and the call was reversed, as replay showed the ball hit Williams’ knee. The Giants got the ball where Thomas originally picked it up, and the new drive resulted in a go-ahead touchdown.

Both teams had their chances in the end of regulation, but the defenses held strong and sent the game to overtime.

The Giants won the toss, but quickly punted it away. The 49ers followed that up with a three and out, and gave the ball back to the Giants. Eli Manning and the offense advanced the ball to the 46 yard line of San Francisco, but a sack pushed them back to their own 46. This meant fourth down, and a punting situation.

Kyle Williams fielded the ball and ran it for five yards before the unthinkable happened. He was stripped of the ball, and it was recovered by Devin Thomas once again. This gave the Giants the ball deep in 49ers territory, and resulted in a game-winning 31 yard field goal from Lawrence Tynes.

Final Thought

The mishaps of Kyle Williams and Billy Cundiff will not go down as the biggest blunders in playoff history, but they will likely be the biggest blunders in the careers of both players. The key will be for them to move past the mishaps, and not let it dwell in their minds. Cundiff especially, as a kicker with no confidence usually results in a kicker without a job.

For Williams, he will have to forget about the whole situation and move past it. It is easy to say that as a fan of the game, but he is so young that he can’t let one play define his career. There are the so-called “fans” that will attack him through mediums such as Twitter, but those people need to put things into perspective.

At the end of the day, it was just a game, and a player made a mistake.

For Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (the subject of a recent MSF photo story) this is a big opportunity to show that he belongs in the discussion of the upper tier quarterbacks in the NFL. For Patriots superstar Tom Brady, today provides an opportunity to avenge a playoff drubbing at the hands a Baltimore a few years ago with a win propelling the Brady-Belichick duo to its fifth Super Bowl appearance.

Here is all the basic info you need to know, what MSF’s writers have said about the game this week, and a poll so you can take your pick.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Game Info

• Ravens-Patriots Date: Sunday, January 22nd
• Ravens-Patriots Time: 3:00 ET
• Ravens-Patriots TV: CBS
• Ravens-Patriots Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms (with Steve Tasker)
• Ravens-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -7
• Ravens-Patriots Over-Under: 50.5

Image source: N.T.C.F.

Steve’s Ravens-Patriots Prediction

Click to read Steve’s complete Ravens-Patriots Preview.

For the Ravens to win, they will have to hold Tom Brady under his average of nearly 318 passing yards a game. They allow under 200 yards passing on average, but they haven’t faced a tough quarterback since Week 15 when they went up against Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Even then, he only had 270 yards and a touchdown. Tom Brady will be the best quarterback they have faced all season, and limiting his productivity is necessary for a shot to win.

They will also need to keep a close watch on the two tight ends in Gronkowski and Hernandez. If the linebackers can shut them down, Brady will have to key in on Wes Welker, and it could make him predictable. Without a doubt, the Ravens have plans in place to shut down the two tight ends, and time will tell if they are successful.
Patriots-Ravens Prediction

The Ravens’ defense is one of the best in the league, but Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game of football. He will find a way to get the ball into the endzone, even if his tight ends are taken out of the equation.

I continue to doubt Joe Flacco, but a Super Bowl victory would change my thoughts. It just won’t happen this year.

• Pick: Patriots 31 | Ravens 27

Jerod’s Ravens-Patriots Spread Pick

I didn’t follow the Ravens-Texans game all that closely through the first 3 quarters yesterday. Around the start of the 4th quarter I tweeted out that it sounded like Houston was outplaying Baltimore despite the score. Every tweet I received in reply agreed.

While Houston is a good team with a great running back, Baltimore should have been able to dispatch of a T.J. Yates-led team with far more ease if they are thinking about going into New England and winning. I just don’t see.

Baltimore’s defense is very good, but not the dominant unit it once was, and New England’s defense seems to be buoyed by the return to health of some key players; and we know how powerful Brady’s connection with his tight ends has become.

If this game was in Baltimore, where the Ravens always play with an extra bounce in their step, I’d consider taking the points. In New England, with Brady and the Pats looking as locked in as they do, I think I’d lay a couple of touchdowns, which makes a little more than one an easy decision.

• Ravens-Patriots spread pick: Patriots -7

Ravens-Patriots Poll

Who do you think will win?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

And don’t be shy. Defend your pick below in the comment section.

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The four teams remaining provide possible Super Bowl matchups that will be very interesting to watch.

Patriots-Giants

The first one is a rematch of the Super Bowl from four years ago, which featured the Patriots and the Giants. This is arguably one of the greatest Super Bowls ever played, and a rematch would provide another great matchup.

Super Bowl XLII featured a Patriots team that was looking to complete only the second undefeated season in NFL history, with the other being done by the 1972 Miami Dolphins. They took care of the Jaguars, (they were in the playoffs?!?), and the Chargers in the playoffs to win the AFC.

The Giants came in as a wild card team at 10-6 in their first season following the retirement of Tiki Barber. Their path was much tougher than that of the Patriots, as it took them three wins to win the NFC. They did not have much trouble beating the Bucs in the wild-card round but faced a much tougher opponent in Dallas the following week.

The Giants had lost two games to Dallas in the regular season, but found a way to win in the playoffs. The Cowboys were down 21-17 with nearly the whole fourth quarter to score a touchdown, but the Giants’ defense held strong.

In the NFC Championship Game, which turned out to be Brett Favre’s last game as a Packer, the Giants had to go into Lambeau as the underdog to get to the Super Bowl. Lawrence Tynes missed two go-ahead field goals, and the game went to overtime.

The Packers got the ball first, but could not keep it for long. Brett Favre threw his first memorable interception in an NFC Championship game, with the second being against the Saints when he was a member of the Vikings, and the Giants got the ball. Tynes then hit a game-winning field goal to send the Giants to the Super Bowl.

The game was a rematch of a Week 17 matchup, in which the Pats’ won 38-35 to stay undefeated. Both teams had played their starters throughout, even though they had both clinched playoff spots.

The most memorable part of their second meeting came in the last three minutes of the Super Bowl. The infamous “helmet catch” by David Tyree kept the drive alive, and it was finished by a touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress.

For a complete recap, here is a video of the entire final drive.

49ers-Ravens

The other intriguing matchup would also be a rematch, as the Harbaugh brothers and their respective teams, the 49ers and Ravens, are still alive in the playoffs.

Compared to the possible Giants-Patriots rematch, I find this one less likely to happen. The 49ers are favorites in their game, but the Giants seem unbeatable after easily taking care of the Packers. The Ravens are underdogs in their game, and I find it hard to predict a loss by the Pats’.

AP photo by Nick Wass

If the two teams did meet, it would be a rematch of the game played on Thanksgiving night. It was dubbed the “Harbaugh Bowl”, and could be known as “Harbaugh Bowl I” if they were to meet again.

The score was 6-6 going into the fourth quarter, but ten points in the quarter gave the Ravens the home win. If they were to meet again, I would give the advantage to the 49ers. They seem to have new life on offense and would certainly score more than six points in the Super Bowl.

These two matchups would each provide intriguing storylines for the two weeks leading to the Super Bowl. No matter who plays in the Super Bowl, with these four teams left we know it will be a very exciting, hard-fought game.

It is not often that the top two seeds both win in the divisional round, but their opponents both had shortcomings. The Broncos ran out of steam and were overwhelmed in New England, while T.J. Yates could not get anything going against the Ravens’ defense.

Image source: N.T.C.F.

New England Patriots

The Patriots had one of the most impressive playoff performances last week, beating the Broncos 45-10. The game was never close, as the score at the half was 35-7 in the Patriots’ favor.

Tom Brady had five first-half touchdown passes, with three of those being to Rob Gronkowski. Gronk finished the game with ten catches for 145 yards and the three aforementioned touchdowns. Brady finished the game with six touchdowns, which is a postseason record.

A new weapon shown by the Pats’ last week was seen in Aaron Hernandez. They lined up the dynamic tight end in the backfield and handed him the ball five times for 61 yards. He could have had more if not for a mild concussion that was suffered during the game. If they continue to hand him the ball, it will be tough even for the Ravens defense to stop him.

It is known that the offense is among the best in the game, but the major question mark for the Patriots is their defense. They only allowed ten points last week against Denver, but the Broncos’ offense is far from dominant. It is tough to gauge the Pats’ defense because in the regular season they only played two teams that finished with winning records. Those teams were the Steelers and the Giants, and both of those games resulted in losses.

The Ravens’ offense is not that great in the passing game, but they average nearly 125 rushing yards a game. The New England defense will have to stop Ray Rice and Ricky Williams early on and force Joe Flacco to throw the ball. He averages just about 214 passing yards a game, which compares to nearly 294 allowed a game by the Patriots. This number is inflated though, as the infamous prevent defense was played often while the Patriots were in command of many of their games in the regular season.

Flacco is prone to making mistakes when he has to pass often, and it is also known that the Ravens don’t fare so well when Rice does not get his fair share of touches.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are looking to get back to the Super Bowl for the second time in franchise history, and for the first time in over a decade. They are coming off a win over a Houston team that featured a rookie quarterback in T.J. Yates. Results may have been different if Matt Schaub was playing, but injuries are a part of the game.

Baltimore’s defense won them the game last week. They allowed more yards than the Houston’s defense allowed, but they won the turnover battle. T.J. Yates was intercepted three times and had more incompletions (18) than completions (17).

The worst turnover came on special teams, and can be single-handedly blamed on Jacoby Jones of the Texans. He was back to return the punt, but let the ball bounce. As it was bouncing he decided to try and make something out of it but dropped the ball. Baltimore then had a short field, and scored a touchdown off of the turnover.

For the Ravens to win, they will have to hold Tom Brady under his average of nearly 318 passing yards a game. They allow under 200 yards passing on average, but they haven’t faced a tough quarterback since Week 15 when they went up against Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Even then, he only had 270 yards and a touchdown. Tom Brady will be the best quarterback they have faced all season, and limiting his productivity is necessary for a shot to win.

They will also need to keep a close watch on the two tight ends in Gronkowski and Hernandez. If the linebackers can shut them down, Brady will have to key in on Wes Welker, and it could make him predictable. Without a doubt, the Ravens have plans in place to shut down the two tight ends, and time will tell if they are successful.

Patriots-Ravens Prediction

The Ravens’ defense is one of the best in the league, but Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game of football. He will find a way to get the ball into the endzone, even if his tight ends are taken out of the equation.

I continue to doubt Joe Flacco, but a Super Bowl victory would change my thoughts. It just won’t happen this year.

Pick: Patriots 31 | Ravens 27

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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Game Info

• Ravens-Patriots Date: Sunday, January 22nd
• Ravens-Patriots Time: 3:00 ET
• Ravens-Patriots TV: CBS
• Ravens-Patriots Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms (with Steve Tasker)
• Ravens-Patriots Point Spread: Patriots -7.5
• Ravens-Patriots Over-Under: 50.5

That’s right: just one.

Tom Brady?  Nope, not the sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer.

Ray Rice?  Sort of, but that’s not the answer.

Joe Flacco?

Bill Belichick?

John Harbaugh?

No. No. No.

Actually, the most important person in deciding who will advance to represent the American Football Conference in Super Bowl XLVI is none other than the gentleman who holds the worst all-time record of any “non-interim” head coach in NFL history: Baltimore Offensive Coordinator Malcolm “call me Cam” Cameron.

Image credit: Rob Carr/Getty Images via B/R

Here’s the issue:

Baltimore is a balanced team that is working on all cylinders when, and only when, Ray Rice is working up a heavy lather.  They control the clock. Joe Flacco becomes efficient and effective. Their defense, which has a couple of aging stars, gets plenty of time on the sidelines resting up.

The problem is that, in a nutshell, Cam Cameron panics almost immediately when things don’t go according to plan.

Let’s look at the numbers.

In the Ravens’ 12 wins during the regular season, Baltimore had great balance and emphasized an effective running game.  They passed 386 times in these 12 games (32/game), while running 404 times (almost 34/game).  They passed on 48.9% of their plays.  On the flip side (you may want to sit down), they only ran 55 times (14/game) while throwing almost 40 times per game (158 total) in their four losses.

Even Andy Reid would blush at a 74% passing ratio.

Enter this week’s opponent, the Patriots.

We know two things about New England.  First, Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game.  His offense has been virtually unstoppable this season, averaging over 32 points per game.  They only scored less than 30 points four times all season, never less than 20.  So, you can insert your favorite Dan Patrick quote here and be reasonably comfortable that the Patriots will put some points on the board.

Next, while New England is abhorrent on defense with the 31^st ranked defense, their specific weakness is against the pass, as they give up almost 300 yards per game through the air.

This is clearly a dangerous combination.

You have a Baltimore offensive coordinator who panics, is going to have to score some points and may even fall behind, and they are playing against a team that is easy pickings through the air.  I can already see Cameron abandoning his gameplan after the Pats take the opening kickoff 80 yards in 7 minutes for an opening drive TD.

That combination of a deficit and the fool’s gold that is the Patriots’ secondary will be way too much for a guy with a quick gag reflex to avoid.

On behalf of Raven fans and Patriot haters throughout the land, let me scream at the top of my lungs: “Don’t do it, Cam!” 

Stay with the plan.  Baltimore can win this game.  If they are who we think they are (thank you Dennis Green), they can run the ball 35-40 times, hold the ball for 35 minutes, and have their defense make just enough plays to, er, contain the Patriots.

John Harbaugh should be preaching patience to his underling all week long. He should probably wire him with some sort of contraption to fry him with a mini-lobotomy any time he passes twice in a row.

Oh, and one more thing, Mr. Harbaugh: just to be on the safe side, take the ball if you win the toss.

Follow Brian Dilsheimer on Twitter @Dils_Ignite

In today’s first game, Houston will attempt to reach the AFC Championship Game against New England…but they’ll have to beat Ray Lewis, Ray Rice, and the mighty Ravens in their home stadium where the defense typically balls so hard.

Here is all the basic info you need to know, what MSF’s writers have said about the game this week, and a poll so you can take your pick.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

• Texans-Ravens Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, January 15th at 1:00 ET on CBS
• Texans-Ravens Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf
• Texans-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -9
• Texans-Ravens Over-Under: 35.5

Steve’s Texans-Ravens Prediction

Click to view Steve’s complete Texans-Ravens Preview, posted earlier this morning.

If the Ravens win this game, it will be won by their defense. They have the third ranked defense in the NFL, right behind the Texans who are second. Their main focus will be to limit the production of Arian Foster. They held him to 49 yards on 15 carries last game, but that was with Schaub at quarterback. Now that Yates is back there, the Texans will want to run the ball even more.

Pressuring Yates is the second key for the Ravens’ defense. He is inexperienced, even though he looked very composed last week. The difference is that this game will be in Baltimore, where the Ravens are 8-0 this season. They may have trouble if they have to go on the road next week, if they win, but it is tough to doubt them at home.

• Ravens-Texans Prediction: Ravens 24 | Texans 23

Jerod’s Texans-Ravens Spread Pick

I am tempted to pick the Texans, because they run the ball so well and have a solid defense, but I just can’t do it.

T.J. Yates was fine managing the game against Cincinnati, but facing the Ravens’ defense in Baltimore is a whole different ballgame. The Ravens are rested, and while their defense isn’t what it once was, they can still get after the QB when motivated, at home, in a big game. Just ask San Francisco, which dealt with it on Thanksgiving night.

I think that’s the Ravens’ D we see on Sunday, and it won’t bode well for Yates. Offensively, Joe Flacco and Ray Rice will do enough to make this a relatively smooth victory.

• Texans-Ravens free pick: Ravens -9

Giants-Packers Poll

Who do you think will win?

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

And don’t be shy. Defend your pick below in the comment section.

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The Houston Texans, who are now undefeated in the playoffs as a franchise, are heading into Baltimore to take on the Ravens. They already faced each other this season, in a game which the Ravens won by a score of 29-14. It seems like a lopsided win, but five field goals by Billy Cundiff turned out to be the difference, in an otherwise hard-fought game.

Houston Texans

The T.J. Yates-led Texans won in impressive fashion last week, with a 31-10 win over the Bengals. Yates went 11-20 with 159 yards and a perfect touchdown pass to Andre Johnson in the third quarter.  Arian Foster added 153 yards on the ground for two touchdowns, one of which was a 42-yard run down the sideline to seal the win.

The offense was great, but the defense was even better. They forced three Andy Dalton interceptions, with the most notable being intercepted by J.J. Watt. At the end of the first half, Dalton was trying to get the Bengals in position to get some points before the break. He dropped back to pass, and threw the ball right into the hands of Watt who returned it for 29 yards and a touchdown. This was a turning point in the game, as the touchdown made it 17-10, and the Texans never looked back.

The key for the Texans defense against the Ravens will be to shut down the run early. Ray Rice ran for 101 yards in the first meeting, which exceeds the average amount allowed by the Texans’ 2nd-ranked rush defense by five yards. Shutting it down early will force Joe Flacco to throw the ball, and Houston will have a better chance of forcing mistakes. Flacco had one interception in the first meeting, and if the Texans keep up the pressure they showed last week, he could throw several more.

The Texans will take a healthy offense into Baltimore, with Andre Johnson and Arian Foster being at full strength. They were injured throughout the year, and Johnson missed the first meeting between the teams. Their presence takes a ton of pressure off of Yates, who will be pressured by the Ravens defense all game.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have their first home playoff game with Joe Flacco as quarterback, which will only help his production. He has already won his playoff opener in the past three seasons, and he wants to be recognized as one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Until he reaches the Super Bowl, that will not happen.

If the Ravens win this game, it will be won by their defense. They have the third ranked defense in the NFL, right behind the Texans who are second. Their main focus will be to limit the production of Arian Foster. They held him to 49 yards on 15 carries last game, but that was with Schaub at quarterback. Now that Yates is back there, the Texans will want to run the ball even more.

Pressuring Yates is the second key for the Ravens’ defense. He is inexperienced, even though he looked very composed last week. The difference is that this game will be in Baltimore, where the Ravens are 8-0 this season. They may have trouble if they have to go on the road next week, if they win, but it is tough to doubt them at home.

Ravens-Texans Prediction: Ravens 24 | Texans 23

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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

• Texans-Ravens Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, January 15th at 1:00 ET on CBS
• Texans-Ravens Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf
• Texans-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -9
• Texans-Ravens Over-Under: 35.5

The Divisional Round often produces the most compelling and memorable moments of the NFL Playoffs. Favorites carrying the weight of the world, or underdogs with nothing to lose and not getting enough respect even after being just one of eight teams out of 32 left.

Jerod offered his spread picks for each game earlier in the week. Now here are my predictions for each game.

NEW ORLEANS (14-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (13-3)

• 4:30 PM ET, SATURDAY

The seemingly unstoppable Saints have become everyone’s trending darlings within the past month, and the favorites of many to win the next two weeks on the road and advance to Super Bowl 46.

Not so fast.

At home, in the Superdome, the Saints are indeed unstoppable. But how many games has New Orleans won in its franchise history. Try zero, thought it’s not like the Saints had not gotten many chances in the playoffs until the past few years.

The Saints will be as far away from their comfort zone as possible on Saturday against a 49ers team that allowed only 87 points at home all season. The city of New Orleans has always been regarded as an eerie and spooky place, but that holds nothing compared to a late afternoon at Candlestick. Wind, a few transformers blowing, the stadium going dark, or maybe the 50+ year old facility seemingly shaking.

Or maybe the Saints just get freaked out by the city of San Francisco itself, which Ari Kaufman refers to as ‘opulent, ostentatious, arrogant, and sheltered.’ What!!?? I like my BART system. My man Ari has become a Howard Cosell for a new generation.

New Orleans had to deal with this last year and saw their season end against a Seattle team they should had been far superior than. Not to mention they somehow lost to both lowly Tampa Bay and St. Louis on the road this year. This time the road task is much tougher; it’s the best defense of the league that has to be solved.

I do dock the Niners for lack of playoff experience (nine years, but seems even longer) and Frank Gore has to have a much better game than he did during the second half of the season. The O-line has to also stop the Saints’ blitz and keep Alex Smith upright, which was a challenge during a meltdown at Baltimore.

But I’m going to go with the home dog here…

PICK EM PAL!!! Saints-49ers Prediction: San Francisco 27 | New Orleans 24

DENVER (9-8) AT NEW ENGLAND (13-3)

• 8:00 PM ET, SATURDAY

The numerologists had a field day after last Sunday. Tim Tebow 316 yards, 31.6 yards per completion, a 31.6 TV rating during the fourth quarter. Big Ben picked on third and 16. It was a great day for those on the Tebow bandwagon.

But one is only as good as his last game, and Tebow right now remains a double-edged sword – and we’ve already seen Broncos v. Pats, and that was at Mile High. And as far as the Patriots are concerned, I love their road to the Super Bowl, especially since they don’t have to worry about the already-imploded New York Jets.

Maybe you have heard the tale of the man who puts $80 dollars on the #8 horse in the eighth race, then sees the horse finish eighth. Denver’s run comes crashing to a halt and the debate on whether Tebow can take it to the next level can rage until training camp in July.

PICK EM PAL!!!  Patriots-Broncos Prediction: New England 31 | Denver 6

HOUSTON (11-6) AT BALTIMORE (12-4)

• 1:00 PM ET, SUNDAY

The Houston Texans are still a team that most NFL followers are NOT familiar with.  Except for a late-season game on the NFL Network in which they lost, Greg Gumbel/Dan Dierdorf is about as good as it gets for this team getting run.

As was mentioned during the telecast of last week’s Wild Card game, the Texans have been built via the draft, especially this past year. J.J. Watt first round, Brooks Reid second round, and taking a QB named T.J. Yates in Round 5, which turned out in come in real handy. Pro Bowler Brian Cushing was a product of the 2009 draft. Even after losing Mario Williams and Matt Schaub during the season and WR Andre Johnson hobbled, the Texans have remained relevant.

Meanwhile I’m not sold on the Ravens, who I consider as the AFC version of the Atlanta Falcons. QB Joe Flacco is good, like Matt Ryan is ‘good’, but can he be OMG great?? And the team as a whole had too many games that had me guessing whether this is really an elite team and a title contender.

True, this is one of the last kicks of the can for Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, but there is always one result in the postseason that no one figures on and shocks everyone, I’m going to peg this game as one of those. As Bum Phillips said in the day, Houston will be ‘knocking on that door’ again after Arian Foster and Ben Tate grounds-and-pounds the Texans to the AFC Championship Game.

PICK EM PAL!! Texans-Ravens Prediction: Houston 23 | Baltimore 17

NY GIANTS (10-7) AT GREEN BAY (15-1)

• 4:30 PM, SUNDAY

We can talk X’s and O’s all day, but sometimes an off-the-field event ends up throwing all analysis off-kilter. Unfortunately that is the case this week, as Packers Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin is on an extended leave of absence following the tragic and sudden passing of his son. Needless to say, this has been a surreal week in the Packers organization leading up to a playoff game, with the situation rocking the franchise to its core. Even classy Giants HC Tom Coughlin reached out to offer his condolences to the Packers organization.

How this effects the Packers on the field Sunday is anyone’s guess, but no doubt this is a major distraction in a football sense.

Philbin is not expected to be with the team on Sunday, meaning HC Mike McCarthy has to put a contingency plan in place in regards to the offensive game plan. On the field, there are not a lot of players on either side that werearound four years ago when the Giants shocked Green Bay en route to an eventual NFL title.

What the Giants do have, however, is the very same Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs smash-mouth element, plus the receiving weapons that can put the shaky Packers secondary on it’s heels much like they did in the regular season meeting at the Meadowlands.

Yes, there are much more important things than football, but should the Packers lose don’t expect the team to use the events of this week as an excuse. In the end, I do expect Green Bay to pull one out for their grieving coach and get him back in the coaching booth next Sunday.

PICK EM PAL!!!  Packers-Giants Prediction: Green Bay 33, | NY Giants 27 (OT)

Before we as sports fans switch our focus to other items like March Madness or the Pacquiao vs. Mayweather fight that I will keep assuming will happen, we get 11 more games that make up the annual NFL playoffs. These 660 minutes will re-write, or at very least alter, the season’s script to which many think they already know the ending.

The Packers repeating as Super Bowl champions was once treated like a given...but should they even be considered the favorites anymore?

Remember, last season at this time, the Green Bay Packers were a #6 seed that only made the playoffs because the New York Giants practically handed them the last spot.

So, with that in mind, I thought I would give you some insights to, depending on your objectives, make some money during playoff season or simply sound smart around the water cooler.

I have put together 10 predictions and things that you should look for during the playoffs. I guarantee at least three or four of them will be right.

#10: The NFL Wanted Parity, They Got Mediocrity.

It is great for ratings that everyone’s favorite team has a chance to compete, if not one year, then certainly the next. Ever since St. Louis and a former Hy-Vee bag boy came from nowhere to win the Super Bowl just over a decade ago, we have had a revolving door for the most part.

The problem with this is that the quality at the top of the league is watered down, and the opportunity for epic battles between the titans is low, because there are no titans. Every team has major flaws.

So, the bad news is that the overall level of play may be lower in the playoffs than 20+ years ago, but the good news is that the results are more unpredictable.

#9: To Play Touch Football or To Risk Death.

This one really has nothing to do with the playoffs, but the National Football League has a conundrum.

The league continues to come down with harsher penalties for hard and high and low and late hits. The problem is they continue to take aggression out of a game that is by design violent. On the flip side, if they don’t, with players as big and strong as they are today, there will be the first death on the field since Warren Beatty in Heaven Can Wait.

I really an not sure what the league can do about this, but this issue, with on-field injuries combined with the lasting effects of concussions, will haunt this league for a long, long time.

#8: Every Once in a While, It Sucks to be Vegas.

Detroit is playing at New Orleans. The two quarterbacks in this game have combined for three of the five seasons of 5,000 yards passing in NFL history. Both defenses give up points, and Detroit’s even scores some.

Vegas opened the total of this game at 58.5, higher than any total (previous high was 57 in 2009 when the Saints battled that Hy Vee bag boy and the Cardinals), but probably not high enough to keep 80% of the action from going on the over.

Is there any way Drew Brees scores less than 38? Will Stafford score less than 28? And Vegas can’t even get bad weather indoors….

#7: Tim Tebow is the Worst Starting Playoff QB in last 10 Years, and That Includes Trent Dilfer.

Tim Tebow is a fantastic human being. He is a wonderful leader of men. He was a tremendous college quarterback. But, let’s face it, now that the league has figured out the Denver gimmicks, Tebow is not a quality starting quarterback in the NFL.

In his last three games, Tebow is 30-73 (41%, ouch), with 1 TD and 4 INT’s. And he has lost multiple fumbles as well. The best thing that can possibly happen this week to Denver is that Tebow and crew get shut out, so that John Elway can do what he knows is the right thing: find the franchise quarterback of the future.

#6: The 49ers Have the Formula to Win It All, If It Were 1986.

The 49ers run the ball very effectively with Frank Gore, control the ball with Alex Smith making few mistakes, and play great defense. That was a great formula before teams started scoring 500+ points a season.

As great as their defense is, the teams they will face in the NFC will get their points, and Jim Harbaugh’s team will just not be able to keep up.

#5: When Was the Last Time Two Rookie QB’s Started Against Each Other in a Playoff Game?

Houston has waited FOREVER to get to the playoffs, and now that they are here, their hopes rest on the shoulders of rookie 5^th round draft choice T.J. Yates. Yates has come a long way since beating out Greg Paulus’ brother for the starting job in Chapel Hill a few years back.

The Texans will try to rely on a great one-two running attack of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. The problem is that the Bengals have a top 5 rush defense.

I am not sure that Andy Dalton and his weapons have enough experience to take advantage of this opportunity on the road, but one thing I look for is the anti-Lions/Saints, with a final score like you might find after the 1^st quarter in New Orleans.

#4: Watch Out For the New York (Football) Giants.

Admittedly, the Giants only got into the playoffs because the Eagles did not realize the season had started until 75% of it had been completed. But this team is for real and can beat anyone.

Eli Manning has taken his level of play up significantly this year, and on the defensive side of the ball, with Umenyiora back with Tuck and JPP, they have enough pass rush to hide their deficiencies in their thin secondary.

If they get by the Falcons this weekend, watch for a monumental upset the following weekend, because….

#3: Green Bay Will Not Win the Super Bowl.

Green Bay has had a spectacular season. But they, better than anyone after their run last season, understand that the Super Bowl is not always won by the best team of the season, but the team that is playing the best at the end.

Green Bay will get a boost if they get Greg Jennings back for the playoff push, but as you look at the competition, other teams are just playing better right now.

#2: Will the Patriots Win a Playoff Game?

It has been four long years since David Tyree made the LAST catch of his illustrious career and kept the Patriots from a perfect 19-0 season by winning Super Bowl XLII. The Patriots have not won a playoff game since.

While they went 13-3 this season, do not be surprised if that playoff futility continues after their bye week.

The Patriots defense is awful, so bad that they have used receivers as starters in their secondary multiple times this season. As great as Tom Brady is, if they run into a well-rounded team, they will have a difficult time advancing, even with the friendly Foxborough crowd locked in throughout the AFC playoffs.

#1: New Orleans Will Beat Baltimore in Indianapolis.

First, I thought Pittsburgh would get to the big game, but I have switched to Baltimore because they are healthier than Pittsburgh heading into the playoffs, especially with news that Rashard Mendenhall may be out.

But these are the two teams that will wade through the kiddie pool and get to swim in the deep end. And in the end, Drew Brees and company will have just enough to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the second time.

And then, we will be less than 6 months away from training camps!

Now let’s break down the playoff scenarios for the AFC based on what happens in Week 17. There is still a lot to be decided.

AFC Playoff Scenarios

Houston Texans

The NFC playoff scenarios started out with an easy one – the Cowboys-Giants winner is the #4 seed, the loser goes home – and the AFC playoff scenarios start out with an even simpler one:

The Houston Texans are the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs, regardless of what happens in Week 17.

While Houston could finished in a three-way 11-5 tie with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, here is a quick explanation for why they could not vault over either for the #2 seed, via HoustonTexans.com:

If the Texans, Ravens and Steelers all finish 11-5, the Steelers would be eliminated from a tiebreaker because the Ravens beat them twice and would be AFC North champions. The Ravens would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Texans because they beat them in Week 6.

New England Patriots

The Patriots have clinched the AFC East as well as a first round bye. In Week 17, they have home field advantage on the line.

If the Pats can beat Buffalo at home, they will be the #1 seed in the AFC. If they lose to Buffalo, the Patriots will still nab the #1 seed if Pittsburgh and Baltimore lose.

If New England loses and either or both of Baltimore/Pittsburgh win, they would have identical 12-4 records. New England loses the tie-breaker with both the Steelers and Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have clinched at least a wild card spot, along with Pittsburgh. With both teams sitting at 11-4, the AFC North (and more) remains up in the air.

If Baltimore beats Cincinnati, the Ravens clinch the AFC North and a first round bye because they beat Pittsburgh twice and thus own the tie-breaker. The Ravens also clinch the AFC North if they lose to Cincy and Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland. However, if Baltimore loses to Cincy and Pittsburgh beats Cleveland, then the Ravens get the wild card.

As mentioned above, the Ravens also can clinch home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs if they win and New England loses to Buffalo.

Pittsburgh Steelers

If Pittsburgh beats Cleveland and Baltimore loses to Cincinnati, the Steelers are AFC North champions and will host a first round playoff game. Should the Steelers lose, or if they win and Baltimore wins, the Steelers are the wild card.

If the Steelers win and both Baltimore and New England lose, the Steelers become the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs and will have home field advantage throughout as well as a first round bye.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos clinch the AFC West title and the #4 seed by beating Kansas City in Week 17. If the Raiders lose to the Chargers, then the Broncos win the AFC West regardless of if they win or lose against Kansas City.

In the unlikely even that Denver and Kansas City tie, Denver still goes to the playoffs if Oakland loses or ties.

And now let’s run down the many, many, many possibilities for what could happen with the #6 seed in the AFC:

AFC Playoff Scenarios for #6 Seed

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have, theoretically, the best chance at securing the #6 seed because they have a “win and in” scenario (though it does come against Baltimore). If Cincinnati beats Baltimore, or ties, they are in as the #6 seed.

Cincinnati can still make the playoffs with a loss if one of the following scenarios play out:

• The Jets lose or tie and Oakland loses or ties
• The Jets lose or tie and Denver loses or ties

Oakland Raiders

If Oakland wins and Denver wins, Oakland cannot win the AFC West and host a first round playoff game. However, the Raiders could still earn the #6 seed if they win and the following happens:

• Cincinnati loses and Tennessee loses or ties
• Cincinnati loses and the Jets win

New York Jets

Yes, the Jets can still make the playoffs. They need a lot of help to do it though.

First, New York needs to beat Miami in Miami. That will be no easy task. If New York loses, they are out no matter what.

If they win, the Jets will make the playoffs if one of the following two scenarios play out:

• Cincinnati loses, Tennessee loses or ties, and Oakland loses or ties
• Cincinnati loses, Tennessee loses or ties, and Denver loses or ties

Tennessee Titans

The Titans also still have a shot at the playoffs, but a lot has to happen. Of course, they have to beat Houston. If they do, they will make the playoffs if one of the following scenarios play out:

• Cincinnati loses and the Jets win and Oakland loses or ties
• Cincinnati loses and the Jets win and Denver loses or ties
• Cincinnati loses and the Jets lose or tie and Oakland wins and Denver wins

Whew, that’s a lot of help the Titans need…

AFC Playoff Predictions

With so many possibilities, what will actually happen?

Here are my predictions for the pivotal Week 17 games:

• New England beats Buffalo
• Miami beats New York
• Baltimore beats Cincinnati
• Pittsburgh beats Cleveland
• Tennessee beats Houston
• Denver beats Kansas City
• San Diego beats Oakland

This would create the following first playoff matchups:

• Byes: #1 New England (13-3), #2 Baltimore (12-4)
• #3 Houston (10-6) v #6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
• #4 Denver (9-7) v #5 Pittsburgh (12-4)

What do you think will happen? Comment below.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens come into tonight’s game with a record of 10-3, which puts them in second place in the AFC behind the Texans (10-3), who are in first via a tiebreaker. They have the same record as the Steelers, but own first place in the AFC North because they defeated Pittsburgh in both of their meetings this season.

Baltimore is on a four game win streak, and in the last three they have not allowed more than ten points to either of the three teams. Given two of those teams were the Browns and the Colts, but the six points allowed to San Francisco was an impressive accomplishment.

The defense will have to step up to the occasion, as the Chargers have scored a combined 75 points in their last two games. Ray Lewis has practiced all week and is expected to play, after missing the last month due to a toe injury. The team has already won four in a row without him in on the field, so his return will only bolster the already strong Ravens defense.

On offense, the Ravens will have to focus on running the ball. The Chargers have the seventh ranked pass defense, and will certainly give Flacco and the receivers a tough time. It would be foolish not to base the offense off of Ray Rice and the run game, as Flacco seems to make mistakes when he is forced to pass the ball too often. Rice has 1,029 yards on the year with ten touchdowns, so he should be the focal point of the playcalling.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have won two straight games, over the Jaguars and the Bills, but it may be a little too late. After starting the season 4-1, the Chargers lost six games in a row, with the largest margin of victory being eleven points. They have had trouble closing out games, which was evident on the infamous Monday Night game on Halloween when Philip Rivers fumbled the snap which would have set up a chip-shot game winning field goal.

For the Chargers to even make the playoffs, they would have to win the rest of their games. This is no easy task, with their last three games being against the Ravens, Lions, and Raiders. On top of that, they would have to catch up to Denver, who is two games ahead of the Chargers with three games remaining. This will also be difficult as the Broncos have the Bills and the Chiefs in their last two games, after the showdown against the Pats’ today.

Ravens-Chargers Prediction

San Diego’s chances are slim, but since they are still alive, they have to play like it. This will be no easy task going up against Baltimore’s third ranked overall defense. They will have to take shots through air, and put trust in Philip Rivers, who has not thrown an interception in his last three games.

For the Chargers to even have a shot, they will have to take care of the ball. The Ravens have slipped up in games against Jacksonville and Seattle this year, but they will not let that happen again this late in the season.

Prediction: Baltimore 24 | San Diego 21

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Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers

• Ravens-Chargers Date: Sunday, December 18th at 8:20 PM on NBC
• Ravens-Chargers Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
• Ravens-Chargers Point Spread: Ravens -1.5
• Ravens-Chargers Over-Under Odds: 44

In my league of 14 teams, I finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of points…but because I had the third most points scored on me, I missed the playoffs…by a lot.

I finished second to last.

Lame.

Sometimes, fantasy football goes that way. I will spare you my three heart-breaking losses of the year because, quite frankly, we all have them…and nobody else cares.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Nobody cares Jon except for certain other people in that same league who finished in first place with an 11-2 record despite only scoring the 6th-most points but having by far the least points scored against.

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!]

Let’s get to this week.

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25. Why? Because if you have a guy in the top 20…you should be thinking about starting him anyway. I’m not going to sit here and tell you “enlightening” information like, “LeSean McCoy is going to score points this week!”

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Tim Tebow (at NE)

He’s tied for 18th among QBs…AND HE’S ONLY PLAYED EIGHT GAMES!

If you don’t believe in Tebow yet (and by that, I mean in terms of fantasy football), you probably never will.

Tebow will be playing against the New England Patriots and their league-worst defense. It should also be mentioned that for the first time all year, John Fox was complimentary of Tebow’s passing this past week. He admitted that Tebow is improving a lot, and they will be able to start trusting him more and more in the passing game. This is great news for Tebow-owners.

Will The Broncos win this week? I’m not sure, but that doesn’t matter for your fantasy team.

Tebow will go crazy like he did two weeks ago against Minnesota. New England’s pass defense is ranked dead last in the league. Start Tebow with confidence.

Tim Tebow fantasy football Week 15 projection: 260 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT; 80 rushing yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em QBs for Week 15:

• Tony Romo – Tampa Bay is ranked 27th in the league against the pass, and Romo finally has four legitimate receiving weapons now that Miles Austin is back. Add this to the fact that they just lost DeMarco Murray, and I expect Romo to be the #1 QB of Week 15.
• Matt Stafford – Playing against Oakland (Carson Palmer…you can LOL right now). They are awful.
• Andy Dalton – Love his matchup against St. Louis. Cincinnati needs a win right now, and Dalton and AJ Green should make beautiful music in the dome on Sunday.

Sit Em QB: Mark Sanchez (at Philadelphia)

Mark Sanchez is, unbelievably, the 10th ranked QB in all of fantasy right now. Don’t be fooled though.

Sanchez has padded his stats against poor pass defenses. He put up at least 17 points against Dallas, Oakland, Miami, New England, and Buffalo. None of those teams are ranked in the top 14 in the league against the pass. Against Baltimore, Jacksonville, Denver, and Washington, he failed to break THIRTEEN.

The Eagles aren’t a great pass defense, but they are ranked 12th in the league. The way you beat the Eagles is on the ground.
Once you factor Shonn Greene’s resurgence into the picture, Sanchez is a must-sit in week 15.

Mark Sanchez fantasy football Week 15 projection: 180 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other Sit Em QBs for Week 15:

• Alex Smith – I really hope you weren’t planning on starting him. He’s been terrible lately, AND he’s playing the Steelers. Good luck with that, Mr. Smith.
• Matt Ryan – He’s the most hit or miss QB in fantasy. He could very well have a big game, especially if Julio Jones stops dropping the ball, but I think he’s a miss this week. Jacksonville has the 4th best defense in the league against the pass, and both teams are playing off of a short week on Thursday night. Stay away from Matty-Ice this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you picking Tebow as your start ‘em QB this week is the most predictable choice of 2011. It’s also correct.

Picking Sanchez as the sit ‘em QB though? Boy, I don’t know. I certainly do not agree that he a “must sit”. Do you really trust Philly and its defense that much? Even if Shonn Greene does the heavy lifting, the Jets still like to pass in the red zone.  I don’t love Sanchez, and he’s certainly not a “must start” by any means, but he does have 7 TDs over the last three games. I don’t care who they are against, that’s good. Let’s put it this way: you could do worse.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Grant (at Kansas City)

After losing Greg Jennings last week, I have the feeling that Green Bay will start playing a little bit more conservatively late in games. Fortunately for them, Ryan Grant appears to be peaking at the right time.

It always takes a while to fully recover from injury, and Grant appeared to be at top form last week.

Look for Green Bay to start shortening games in the second half as the season ends. They will definitely start this week against Kansas City and their atrocious run defense.

Ryan Grant fantasy football Week 15 projection: 150 total yards, 1 TD

Other Start Em RBs for Week 15:

• Shonn Greene AND LaDainian Tomlinson – Don’t be freaked out that they might steal each other’s points…BOTH players should be good for more then 10 this week against Philadelphia.
• Chris Johnson – Against Indianapolis in a game that really doesn’t matter? (Tennessee is basically out of the playoffs at this point) Come on…I think we all know that this is the type of game that Chris Johnson will EXPLODE in.

Sit Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall (v San Francisco)

I will let Jerod confirm this one by explaining to you once again how impossible it is to run on San Francisco.

Rashard Mendenhall Projections: 60 total yards

Other Sit Em RBs for Week 15:

• Ryan Mathews – Tough matchup against Baltimore. San Diego will have to air it out to beat the Ravens.
• DeAngelo Williams – Houston is great against the run as well. I actually like Jonathan Stewart a little bit this week – he’s the Panthers’ threat to catch the ball out of the backfield – but stay away from DeAngelo Williams in Week 15.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Wow, I pretty much agree with everything here. I’m not as high on Grant as you are, but I certainly think he’s worthy of playing for the exact reasons you explained.

As for Mendenhall, San Francisco still has not allowed 1,000 total rushing yards this year – they give up just 70.5 rushing yards per game – and have not allowed a single rushing touchdown. Sure, that second stat is a bit fluky (everyone else has allowed at least five) but you can’t even be in a position to have it unless your run D is awesome. I would sit Mendy too. If he scores, oh well. Can you really be upset with yourself?

Other running backs who simply have to be in your starting lineups because of their matchups:

• Felix Jones – yes, Felix Jones. Dallas is playing Tampa Bay, a team that has essentially quit on the season and can’t stop anyone.
• Cedric Benson – the Rams can’t stop anyone from running either.
• Roy Helu – He’s on fire, has Shanahan’s trust, and gets to face a Giants’ D that rushes the passer but barely passes the rushers.
• Arian Foster and Ben Tate – Carolina’s run D is that bad.
• Beanie Wells – Cleveland can defend the pass, at least statistically, in large part because they can’t defend the run.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Demaryius Thomas (v NE)

New England, as I covered before, is just atrocious against the pass. World-renowned Patriots fan Bill Simmons even thinks that Julian Edelman is their BEST defensive back.

Thomas has quickly become Tebow’s favorite target in the end zone ever since he returned from injury. Look for Thomas to have a BIG day again in Week 15.

Demaryius Thomas fantasy football Week 15 projection: 8 catches for 140 yards and 2 TDs

Bonus Start Em WR: James Jones (at KC)

Usually, I only give you one guy that I’m super strong on, but I felt that this was too important to skip over.

The Greg Jennings injury will not hurt the Packers too badly; they will just spread around the points a little more. Look for James Jones (and Jordy Nelson) to have a huge day in Jennings’ absence.

James Jones fantasy football Week 15 projection: 6 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD

Other Start Em WRs for Week 15:

• AJ Green – Big day for the Cincinnati passing game on the turf in St. Louis. I expect AJ to catch AT LEAST two bombs in this game.
• EVERY wide receiver for the Saints and Vikings playing in Minnesota this week – Both teams are terrible against the pass…both teams have tons of speed…both teams are playing inside. Yay, free points.

Sit Em WR: Roddy White (v JAX)

I hate his matchup, and I hate his QB this week. The only receiver I like for the Falcons this week against Jacksonville is Tony Gonzalez. I would stay away from Roddy AND Julio Jones actually, but Roddy is the guy that’s ranked in the top fifteen, so that is why he is my sit ‘em wide receiver for Week 15.

Roddy White fantasy football Week 15 projection: 4 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit Em WRs for Week 15:

• Michael Crabtree – Won’t do much against the Steelers this week.
• DeSean Jackson – Revis Island.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I was going to say that’s scary how much we are agreeing this week, but then I got down to Roddy White and realized that we do disagree on something. I’m not a huge fan of White’s upside this week, but I do like his consistency. Look at those last three games (all with TDs). That’s tough to sit in the playoffs.

Let me say this about Demaryius Thomas though: be careful. He is still a rookie with questionable hands. And if he hadn’t caught that late TD from Tebow, all people would be talking about regarding him is all the drops early in the game. Can he handle the pressure of a game this big? I like him. He has explosive potential because of his talent and the matchup. Just be careful.

Other guys I particularly like this week include:

• Mike Williams of Tampa – Dallas’ secondary is pretty poor.
• Nate Washington and Damian Williams against Indianapolis.
• Antonio Brown‘s underrated consistency against San Francisco.
• Laurent Robinson – I know that Dallas has all of its weapons back, but they did last week too and he exploded again. He’s not flash in the pan. Romo loves him.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em Tight End: Jermichael Finley (at KC)

The irony here is that if you have Jermichael Finley, you probably didn’t advance in your fantasy playoffs after his goose egg from last week. However, I think he will get much more involved in the passing attack now that Greg Jennings is out, and he should have his typical explosive day that he gets once a month.

Jermichael Finley fantasy football Week 15 projection: 95 yards, 2 TDs

(Yes, everybody, I’m well aware that I predicted at least three receiving TDs for the Packers after I said they would run the ball more. I don’t care. I expect all of the throwing to be done in the first half, and then Grant to dominate in the second.)

Sit Em Tight End: Vernon Davis (at PIT)

As you well know, I’m pretty high on the Steelers’ pass defense. This game will be ugly one way or the other, and nobody on the 49ers (outside of their running backs) will have a big game offensively.

Jerod’s thoughts:

What, no “other guys” to start and sit? Come on Jon! This is Week 15!

By the way, I agree on both Finley and Davis. You’d have to have balls of steel to start Finley this week, but those who made it this far probably do.

A couple of other names to consider:

• I know that Aaron Hernandez no longer gets the red zone looks in New England, but there is still value in a tight end who catches 4-5 balls per week and gets 50-70 yards. Plus, he’s due for a TD one of these days right?
• Jake Ballard continues to be a solid under-the-radar selection. He should be as well this weekend against Washington.

Guys not to consider:

• Dallas Clark caught one ball last week in his return to lineup. Don’t be seduced by the name.
• Marcedes Lewis has some yardage potential, but I just don’t see many scoring chances for anyone other than MJD against the Falcons.

Fantasy Football Week 15 Start em, Sit em Defenses

Start Em Defense: Chicago (v SEA)

They are playing with their backs against the wall, and pretty much have to hold their opponents scoreless. Fortunately for them, they are playing against Seattle. Look for the Bears to contain the Beast and dominate the Seahawks.

Also, whenever their backs are up against the wall, Devin Hester seems to do something crazy, which helps the Bears D/ST unit. 
Da Bears will play well this week.

Chicago Bears D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 10 or fewer points, 2+ turnovers, 2+ sacks, 1 TD

Sit Em Defense: Denver (v NE)

I love Denver’s offense this week, in part because I think the New England offense will have their way with the Broncos.

You can’t stop Rob Gronkowski…even with OLBs as good as Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

I will be cheering for Denver to pull it off again this week, but once again it looks like Tim Tebow will have to carry the load.

Denver Broncos D/ST fantasy football Week 15 projection: 24 or more points, 1 turnover, 2 sacks

Jerod’s thoughts:

Okay, now I forgive you for not doing the “other” tight ends. You stepped up with some D/ST analysis! And I like both picks.

Also consider that Seattle gave up two return TDs to Ted Ginn back in Week 1. While their special teams may now be better, Hester is Hester. He offers lots of upside for Bears owners.

And as for the Broncos, you’re exactly right. Miller and Dumervil are rushing OLBs, not coverage guys. Gronk will dominate, and Welker should find plenty of success too.

Other D/STs to consider:

• Seattle’s D is criminally underrated. Facing Caleb Hanie, they too should be able to get the scoring to a minimum.
• Cincinnati playing at St. Louis is a no-brainer. So is Tennessee at Indy.

D/STs to stay away from:

• Baltimore is excellent, but they are facing a San Diego offense that is starting to click. If I had Seattle or Cincy, I’d play them over the Ravens, who face a desperate Chargers team that literally almost never loses in December.

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There you go. 2,500 words of fantasy analysis for Week 15, which should have you all ready to make every lineup decision facing you for Week 15.

Wait…what’s that? You still have questions? Well of course be our guest and pop on down to the comment section below. We’ll take good care of you, as well as be here on Sunday morning for our weekly live chat to make sure you are ready to win your playoff matchup.

Good luck in Week 15 everyone!

Aaron Rodgers led a last-minute drive to give the Packers a win over the Giants, extending Green Bay’s winning streak to 18. Drew Brees became the first quarterback in league history to throw for more than 4,000 yards in 12 games. Tim Tebow led the Broncos to their fifth straight win and proved that he is more than just a pair of legs, throwing for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Chris Johnson put to rest any doubt that he had emerged from an early-season, hold0ut-induced funk by rushing for 153 yards and 2 scores. Marshawn Lynch had similar numbers in the Seahawks’ Thursday-night thrashing of the Eagles. And the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski caught 3 touchdown passes, tying the record for most touchdown receptions in a season by a tight end with 13.

First-year coach Jim Harbaugh and the San Francisco 49ers clinched the NFC West and earned their first Playoff bid in nearly a decade. During the Niners’ shutout of St. Louis running back Frank Gore became the leading rusher in franchise history.

These are the players you’ll see on the highlight shows and read about in the week-in-review columns. These are the players who sell jerseys and star in commercials for insurance companies. But, as is always the case in football, no team is successful apart from the contributions of several players whose exemplary work we often overlook.

Here are but a few of the unsung heroes from Week 13 in the NFL:

Colin McCarthy, Tennessee Titans linebacker

Rookie Colin McCarthy began the season backing up starting middle linebacker Barrett Ruud. When Ruud went down with a groin injury early last month, McCarthy took over one of the most important positions on the field. The fourth-round pick from Miami has been the Titan’s leading tackler in each of the 4 games he started.

Sunday against Buffalo was no different. McCarthy led Tennessee with 9 tackles. He also deflected a pass and recovered 2 fumbles.

Late in the first quarter, trailing by 3, Buffalo decided to go for it on 4th and 3 from the Tennessee 34. McCarthy stuffed Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick at the line of scrimmage, forced a fumble, and recovered the fumble at the Titans’ 43. The play denied the Bills a chance to tie or take the lead and gave the Titans great field position for their subsequent drive, a drive that resulted in a Chris Johnson touchdown.

With the win McCarthy and the Titans improved to 7-5 and remain in the mix for an AFC Playoff spot.

Mario Haggan, Denver Broncos linebacker

Going into Sunday’s game against Minnesota, the ever-improving Broncos defense had held each of its last 3 opponents to 13 or fewer points. This week, with hot-shot rookie Von Miller sidelined with a thumb injury, the Denver D struggled, allowing 489 yards and 30 points. (The defense wasn’t responsible for the safety the Broncos surrendered on their opening drive.)

Despite Denver’s defensive woes, the defense was responsible for the Broncos’ only first-half touchdown. In the first quarter, with Denver struggling to move the ball, linebacker Mario Haggan, starting in place of the injured Miller, intercepted Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder and ran 16 yards into the end zone. The score gave the Broncos an early lead and kept them within a touchdown going into the second half.

Haggan, normally a special teams player, finished the game with 12 tackles, including 3 for a loss. His Broncos (who hold the tiebreaker against the Raiders) took over first place in the AFC West.

Mario Haggan couldn't be happier to be an Unsung Hero. (Denver Post file photo)

Lagedu Naanee, Carolina Panthers wide receiver

Boise State fans can’t be happy that the Sugar Bowl passed over their Broncos in favor of 2 teams ranked outside the top 10. But they can take solace in knowing that one of their own is one of this week’s Unsung Heroes.

Legedu Naanee, a fifth year receiver out of Boise State, caught only two balls in Sunday’s win over Tampa Bay. One of those catches was the only touchdown that the Panthers scored through the air.

But Legadu Naanee—that’s LEG-uh-doo nah-NAY—did more than just catch the ball. Late in the first quarter, Naanee completed a pass to his quarterback, Cam Newton, that was good for 27 yards. The play put the Panthers on the Tampa Bay 2-yard line and set up an easy touchdown that would give Carolina a 14-0 lead.

Tavaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks quarterback

When the Saints acquired Drew Brees in 2006, they hit a home run. When the Seahawks acquired sixth-year quarterback Travaris Jackson this summer, they appeared to have hit a grounder to second. Or an infield fly. Or maybe a foul ball. (I’m not sure where this analogy is taking me.) For his career, Jackson has thrown 34 touchdowns and 34 interceptions and has a passer rating of 76.4. He certainly wasn’t an improvement over outgoing free agent Matt Hasselbeck; and he certainly wasn’t the sort of player one would expect to take a reigning division champion (albeit a 7-9 division champion) to the next level.

So far this year, he has 10 TDs, 12 INTs, and a 76.1 rating. If nothing else, he’s consistent.

But during Seattle’s Thursday night route of Philadelphia, Jackson was superb. He was 13-16 for 190 yards, an average of 11.9 yards-per-attempt. More importantly, Jackson completed a big third-down pass on each of the Seahawks’ first two scoring drives. Early in the first, on third-and-5, Jackson hit Benjamin Obumanu up the middle for 26 yards. That pass set up a Marshawn Lynch touchdown on the following play.

A few minutes later, on third-and-7 at the Seattle 39, Jackson hit Doug Baldwin for 21 yards. On the next play, Lynch once again took the ball into the end zone.

Dan Orlovsky, Indianapolis Colts quarterback

This is my third Unsung Heroes column of the 2011 season. Up to this point, all of the heroes I’ve highlighted have been affiliated with winning teams. But I’m going to make an exception for Colts quarterback Dan Orlovsky. Orlovsky took over the starting job from Curtis Painter this week and made his first start since 2008 when he started 7 games for the Lions.

The Colts have been dreadful this year. They are 0-12 and have been outscored by a total of 184 points. They lost 17-3 at home to Jacksonville in Week 10. They’re ranked 19th in passing defense and 26th or lower in everything else.

You get the picture.

Going into Sunday’s game at New England, Indianapolis was a 3-touchdown underdog. But the Colts, thanks in large part to Orlovsky, managed to make things interesting.

After an Adam Vinatieri field goal tied the game at 3 early in the second quarter, the Patriots went on a run, scoring the next 28 points. Entering the fourth quarter, the Pats led 31-3. Orlovsky, a seventh-year journeyman from UConn who has fewer passing yards in his career than Travaris Jackson has this season, came alive in the final period, throwing for 240 of his 353 yards and 2 touchdowns. In all Indianapolis scored three fourth quarter touchdowns, trimming the lead to 31-24. (The Colts failed to recover an onside kick that would have given them 36 seconds to attempt a game-tying drive.)

Sure, lots of quarterbacks can pick apart a prevent defense, but the Colts haven’t come within 7 points of an opponent in nearly 2 months. (They lost 28-24 at home to Kansas City on October 9.) The fact that they were a few fluky plays away from beating one of the AFC’s best teams on the road is remarkable. And Orlovsky deserves a lot of credit.

Colts fans, this is your quarterback. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Kansas City Chiefs linebackers

It was a good week for linebackers. Chiefs linebackers Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston, and Jovan Belcher were part of a defensive unit that held Chicago to only 3 points, the Bears’ lowest output of the season. (You don’t really appreciate Jay Cutler until he’s not there.)

The trio combined for 22 tackles (including 6 for a loss), 4 sacks, and a forced fumble. The Bears went 3-and-out 5 times. Each of those fruitless drives featured a big play by a Chiefs linebacker.

Houston Texans secondary

When Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub suffered a season-ending foot fracture three weeks ago, the Texans hopes of making their first playoff appearance in franchise history appeared to be in danger. But the Texans are 2-0 without Schaub and are in excellent shape to clinch a division title and a Playoff bid later this month.

Rookie quarterback T.J. Yates, starting in Schaub’s absence, has posted modest numbers but avoided turnovers. Arian Foster and Ben Tate continue to be one of the league’s best running back tandems. And the Houston defense is arguably the NFL’s best.

Sunday the Texans held Atlanta to 10 points. The Houston secondary made things specially difficult for quarterback Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense. Ryan completed only 20 of 46 passes (that’s 43.5 percent).

Texans corners Jason Allen and Kareem Jackson each intercepted Ryan in the first quarter. Safety Glover Quin deflected 2 passes and led Houston with 6 tackles, including one for a loss. Safeties Quintin Demps and Troy Nolan added 4 tackles apiece.

Baltimore Ravens offensive line

No one outside of the Browns organization was surprised to see Baltimore beat Cleveland by 2 touchdowns. But the Ravens offensive line—tackles Bryant McKinnie and Michael Oher, guards Ben Grubbs and Marshal Yanda, and center Matt Birk—nonetheless deserves praise for its remarkable performance.

The Ravens on Sunday ran for 290 yards behind this talented quintet. Ray Rice went for 204; Ricky Williams added 76. Quarterback Joe Flacco struggled, but protection wasn’t a problem: He was only hit twice and sacked once. Only 3 of the Ravens’ 78 plays resulted in negative yards.

Green Bay Packers fans and owners

Once upon a time the NFL had teams in Dayton, Ohio, Evansville, Indiana, and Duluth Minnesota. As the game grew, the NFL franchises in these mid-sized Rust Belt cities folded or moved to one of the nation’s emerging population centers. But one managed to stick around.

Green Bay, Wisconsin, a city whose metropolitan area is less than half the size of Wichita’s, has managed to keep its football team for 92 years. In that time the Packers have become one of the most storied teams, with one of the most passionate fan bases, in all of sports. The team’s unique ownership situation is the main (and perhaps only) reason the Pack has stayed in Green Bay all these years. Unlike most pro sports franchises, which have a single owner or ownership group, the Packers are a publicly owned nonprofit corporation. 112,158 stockholders own 4,750,937 shares of Green Bay Packers stock.

This week the team announced the sale of 250,000 shares of Packers stock at $250 each. The sale, which is only the franchise’s second stock sale since 1950, begins tomorrow and continues until February 29 of next year. The sale will finance renovations to Lambeau Field.

While stock owners get voting rights in the company, Packers stocks cannot appreciate in value and never pay dividends. Still Packers fans always seem to come through, doing whatever is necessary to make sure the team from the little city on Lake Michigan is among the league’s best.

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Click Here to view more Unsung Heroes presented by Chevy

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens

• 49ers-Ravens Date: Thanksgiving Night, Thursday, November 24th
• 49ers-Ravens Kickoff Time: 8:20 PM EST
• 49ers-Ravens TV Network: NFL Network
• 49ers-Ravens Sirius: 92 (SF) | 86 (BAL)
• 49ers-Ravens Announcers: Brad Nessler and Mike Mayock
• 49ers-Ravens Point Spread: Ravens -3
• 49ers-Ravens Over/Under: 39

Keith Mullet’s 49ers-Ravens Analysis

From Keith’s Thanksgiving Day football preview

What more can you ask for in a Thanksgiving evening game (other than for cable companies to all pick up the NFL Network)?

The Brothers Harbaugh square off against one another for the first time as NFL head coaches, with Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers, a surprising 9-1 and the runaway leader of the NFC West traveling to face John Harbaugh’s Ravens, who are tied for the AFC North lead after beating the Cincinnati Bengals last week.

These teams are built similarly, with punishing defenses (the 49ers are 1st against the run, the Ravens are 3rd) and elite, multi-purpose running backs (Frank Gore and Ray Rice).  The winner of this game will likely be the team who is able to have more success running against the other’s front 7.

Of concern for the Ravens is getting Rice consistent touches.  This season, Rice has averaged just over 14 carries per game, which for a star back is not nearly enough.  He is a valuable part of the receiving game too, with 51 receptions, but the Ravens need to find a way to establish Rice early and often.

The Ravens’ game plan lately has been a pass-heavy attack, but Joe Flacco is not Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees; he is not the type of quarterback who can give his team the best chance to win by consistently throwing over 35 times per game.

I think the 49ers will be able to run on Baltimore, especially if Ray Lewis were to miss the game (he is questionable currently with a toe injury that forced him to miss the Cincinnati game).  As long as Alex Smith is able to play conservative, mistake-free football like he has done in the first 10 games this year, I think the 49ers win.

• 49ers-Ravens Spread Pick: 49ers +3

Steve Kubitza’s 49ers-Ravens Prediction

From Steve’s 49ers-Ravens Preview

The build-up to this game will be very intriguing, with the only negative being that the game will be televised on NFL Network. If you do not have NFL Network, NFL.com always broadcasts the games online, with special commentary throughout the game.

The Ravens and coach John Harbaugh have had success in the past, and will continue to carry that success into this year’s playoffs. However, Jim Harbaugh and his up and coming 49ers will get the best of his brother’s team.

The Ravens are prone to having bad games, and this week they will simply be overpowered by the 49ers, who are looking for a quality win to prove themselves.

A win by the 49ers and loss by the Packers would tie the two teams for the lead in the NFC, with the 49ers having the advantage as their schedule is significantly easier than the Packers’ down the stretch.

• 49ers: 27 | Ravens: 21

My 49ers-Ravens Quick Pick

From this week’s Bettor’s Guide

The Harbaugh Bowl! This one is going to be fun.

Two of the three best scoring defenses in the NFL meet up in this one. One, the 49ers, are coming off an easy win over Arizona. The other, the Ravens, is coming off a much tougher divisional matchup.

I expect San Fran to be a bit fresher, and seeing as how scoring will be at a premium 3.5 points seems like an awful lot. I want the points here, especially when I get them with a team that has been so good on the road this year.

• 49ers-Ravens free pick: 49ers +3.5

But most importantly, what do you think?

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And if the history of football on Thanksgiving Day interests you, this is a must-read article by Josh Tinley.