An interesting place to focus this week is in the outfield. Many players that are rarely owned have been seeing a lot of playing time lately and may continue to see more as managers evaluate their teams heading into the second half of the season.

Catcher

Just as the hype over Miguel Olivo started up, it has died down. For those managers who have been taking a chance on his services behind the plate, watch for his MRI results. That string of 0/4 games, four in five days, to go with a bad hammy is disheartening. 

Josh Thole…Josh Thole.  Might as well say his name twice because chances are you have missed him before now. As the Mets’ second option behind the plate, don’t be afraid to have him in your lineup as he is batting .317 this month with a good mix of power as well.

It wasn’t until the past week that managers have noticed A.J. Pierzynski’s worth compared to Kurt Suzuki, who has a higher owned percentage but doesn’t produce much at all.  Give A.J. a chance while it is time to sit Kurt, that is if you haven’t already. 

Russell Martin has an overall decent hitting game but his batting average is a red flag, proceed with caution for the upcoming week.

First Base

During the month of June alone, Carlos Pena has hit 10 home runs to go along with his 20 RBIs. His availability is just about soaked up, but if you can acquire him he will not disappoint (so long as you temper your expectations for batting average).

There is one word to describe Freddie Freeman’s hitting and that would be streaky. He had a good week,  but if his personal trend continues the production may dip this scoring period.

Ever since taking over at 1^st Lance Berkman has seen his average dip continuously.  Although it’s not too alarming, be noteworthy of his play and hopefully his bat returns from the doldrums.

Adam Lind has a tough stretch of games on the way against the pitching of Boston and Cleveland.  Don’t be shocked if his production falls.

Second Base

Brandon Phillips has had his name in the airways recently and it’s not just because of his new twitter friends. With favorable matchups over the next scoring period this Red looks like he is going to assert himself as one of the best 2B options in the league.

While the other Cabrera makes flashy plays deep in the hole, Orlando Cabrera has shot up the fantasy board as a decent option for your team.  His steady play is not always appreciated but it would be wise to give him a shot.

Chances are you have been victim to Dan Uggla’s “flirty” play and have been let down.  Yes he has some decent numbers in certain areas, but the multi-strikeout games and the sub .200 average just are not getting it done. 

Dustin Ackley has been making the most of his time since being called up to the bigs.  Reaching base every game to go along with a .300 average poses the question.  What’s not to like?

Third Base

Will Edwin Encarnacion continue to hit as the Jays’ DH now that his time at 3^rd is up? Who knows, but if he is granted that coveted steady playing time then the production should raise.

There are too many 0-for games for Scott Rolen to have a spot on your roster.  Try and drop him if you can. 

Placido Polanco’s pinky should be just fine after getting hit on Tuesday, so there are no worries there.

The X-ray on Kevin Youkilis’ foot came out negative he should be back to full strength come Monday.

If you are looking for some unexpected health, look no further than Alberto Callaspo.  Since he has earned some steady playing time, his numbers have been solid across the board and could be a good addition in case any untimely injuries occur.

Shortstop

Jose Reyes is making a claim to be the MVP in 2011, hopefully he is on your team.

Two highly owned players are not having a very good week and you should proceed with caution during the upcoming scoring period.  Alexei Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins are ranked 33 and 34 respectively at the position over the last seven games and actually had negative production.  The matchups that these two players will be facing are less than favorable. Ramirez is hitting sub .200 against the Twins and Rollins is batting sub .200 against Atlanta this year. If there ever was a time to be bold then it is now so show them the bench.

Now for some good news: Ronny Cedeno is riding a hot-streak that has his batting average back up over .250.  Add his runs scored and RBI production and he could prove to be a smart option if he is needed there.

With Derek Jeter returning to the lineup, it looks like the Eduardo Nunez show is over.  Honestly, the production really wont differ all that much between the two.

Outfield

B.J. Upton looks as if he is living up to the expectations he received before he came into the league, although it’s difficult to judge his play.  The home run, RBI, and runs scored numbers look great, but with a batting average below .240 the risk sometimes overshadows the reward.

At 90% owned, Angel Pagan may be available to you. He went on a bit of a slump since returning from injury but now his production looks to be back on track.

While lacking in the power department, Nick Markakis has finished the month of June with a 19-game hitting streak, and don’t be surprised if it goes into July as well.

As always, there are some big names that need to see the bench due to reasons such as matchups, injuries, etc.  Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury and Raul Ibanez could see production slip this week.  On the flip side, Andy Dirks, Cameron Maybin, Ben Revere, Austin Jackson and Jonny Gomes have seen much more playing time due to their production.  If you can, ride these guys while they are hot.

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* – Brandon Phillips photo source: The Ghost of Moonlight Graham

If you are a fan of the Chicago White Sox, as I am, then this is a tune to keep in mind once next Tuesday rolls around. Why? That is when the Good Guys host the Twin Cities Piranhas in a three game set that will decide the AL Central.

Let’s preview the series and see just how optimistic White Sox fans should reasonably be about their team rising to the occasion in the most important series of the season.

White Sox-Twins: The Preceding Weekend

As I write this on Saturday morning, the White Sox sit 5.0 games behind Minnesota in the standings, thanks to last night’s thrilling come-from-behind home victory over the Royals. Each team has two games left before their pivotal tilt begins

The White Sox send Edwin Jackson to the hill today at home versus Kyle Davies. Jackson has been outstanding since the White Sox acquired him, although his history versus Kansas City is a bit checkered. Davies’ history against the White Sox is similarly checkered. Still, I think everyone would be shocked if the White Sox didn’t win this battle.

On Sunday, Freddy Garcia takes the hill for Chicago against Sean O’Sullivan of Kansas City. I see no discernible advantage here, so this game is a toss-up.

The Twins are in Cleveland, where they were shut down last night. Today, Nick Blackburn takes on rookie Carlos Carrasco and on Sunday it’s Kevin Slowey against Mitch Talbot. Carrasco and Talbot are better than you think, while Slowey has struggled since returning from injury. Blackburn has poor overall numbers but has been very good over the last 3-4 weeks.

All in all, I expect both the White Sox and Twins to split their games this weekend, meaning the Twins will still have a 5.0 game lead on Tuesday. From a White Sox perspective, this needs to be the absolute worst case weekend scenario. Losing any more ground is simply out of the question with only three weeks left in the season.

Update 9/13: Well, this didn’t go quite as planned. The Twins both of their weekend games while the White Sox split with Kansas City. So the Sox sit 6.0 games out as their pivotal series with Minnesota begins.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Tuesday

• First pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: CSN
• Pitching Matchup: Francisco Liriano (13-7, 3.24 ERA) vs John Danks (13-10, 3.54 ERA)

This is a terrific pitching matchup in a series full of them. Liriano and Danks, both lefties, have had remarkably similar seasons. Not only are their overall numbers very similar, but their numbers against their Tuesday opponent are also similar.

• Danks vs MIN this year: 5 G, 2-1, 34.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 25:9 K:BB
• Liriano vs CHI this year: 4 G, 2-0, 24.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 20:13 K:BB

Both guys have actually pitched better against their rival this year than over their careers. Danks and Liriano have 5.00+ ERAs and 1.50+ WHIPs career against Minnesota and Chicago, respectively. And while both pitchers come into this game on the heels of at least two straight quality starts (Liriano has three straight), both have thrown up two duds out of their last six outings.

So history, both recent and distant, tells us that this may not be the low-scoring pitchers’ duel that we otherwise might expect just looking at the names.

Looking deeper into the numbers, Danks’ and Liriano’s home/road split this year should make White Sox fans feel better:

• Danks at home this year: 3.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .218 BAA, 81:25 K:BB
• Liriano on road this year: 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .266 BAA, 82:26 K:BB

Interestingly, while Liriano’s numbers match up with this career splits, Danks over his career has actually been about the same on the road as he is at home. Still, the fact that this game is in Chicago appears to be, from a pitching standpoint, a clear advantage for Chicago.

Which batters can we expect to step up?

For Minnesota, Michael Cuddyer absolutely owns Danks (1.369 OPS in 45 ABs). Joe Mauer hits .349 career against Danks but doesn’t hit him especially hard (.419 SLG). A positive for Chicago is that Justin Morneau has always hit well against Danks (1.222 OPS in 31 ABs) but remains out while dealing with the effects of a concussion.

Chicago’s players have about half the ABs against Liriano as the Twins’ players against Danks, but a couple guys jump out: Paul Konerko and Alexei Ramirez. Paulie has a 1.141 OPS and 2 HRs in 17 ABs against Liriano while Alexei has a 1.088 OPS in 17 ABs. Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, and Mark Teahen, however, have been neutralized by Liriano.

White Sox-Twins Tuesday Prediction: Both teams have a couple of guys with especially strong numbers against the opposing pitcher, and both pitchers have struggled in this matchup. I expect a close game in which relief pitchers will likely play a big role during the last three innings. With the White Sox getting Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz back to go along with Chris Sale, this isn’t as scary a proposition as it was as recently as a week ago.

White Sox win it 6-5.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Wednesday

• First Pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: WCIU
• Pitching Matchup: Brian Duensing (8-2, 2.02 ERA) vs Gavin Floyd (10-12, 3.91 ERA)

This is the game that terrifies me and that should terrify all White Sox fans.

Gavin Floyd’s terrific mid-summer run, which is his track record, helped propel the White Sox back into the AL Central race (almost exactly as I predicted, by the way) when they looked all but dead early in the season. Unfortunately, Floyd’s track record suggests that he’ll be just an average pitcher over the season’s final month (career 6-9, 4.22 ERA in 22 September starts).

As if on cue, Floyd has three starts giving up 5 earned runs or more since the calendar turned to August. Most frightening for White Sox fans is that two of those starts came against Minnesota and the third was his most recent outing against Detroit.

That’s not encouraging.

Duensing, on the other hand, is a guy who has pitched well in August and September. In 21 careers starts during the season’s final two months, Duensing is 9-2. He has a 2.81 August ERA and a 2.56 September ERA (though his WHIP is 1.36 and BAA is .280).

Against the White Sox Duensing is 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 9 career appearances, some of them out of the pen. Floyd has a 4.93 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in his career against Minnesota and is just 4-7.

(Stop me when you find something that leads you to believe the White Sox will win this game. Seriously. I’m trying really hard to find something.)

At home, Floyd is slightly better than he is on the road while Duensing is decidedly better at home (1.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) than on the road (3.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). Unfortunately, Duensing’s road numbers are better than Floyd’s career home numbers.

Ugh.

From a hitters’ perspective, Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin are the only White Sox players who will be looking forward to this matchup. Alexei is 5-12 lifetime against Duensing with a .962 OPS. CQ is 5-9 against Duensing with 2 HR and a 1.822 OPS.

So Quentin needs to make sure he doesn’t get hurt between now and Wednesday because the White Sox will need his power to have a chance.

For the Twins, an entire phalanx of hitters will be looking forward to facing Floyd. Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Joe Mauer all have OPS’ above 1.000 in 24, 35, and 34 ABs, respectively.

White Sox-Twins Wednesday Prediction: During June and July, Gavin Floyd was basically automatic. Every time he started you just knew the White Sox would have a great chance to win. While he hasn’t been terrible in August and September, his two recent outings against Minnesota, and his history against the Twins, are not encouraging.

Brian Duensing is one of the really good young pitchers that not too many people know about. White Sox fans and other AL Central aficionados do, but that’s about it. As September progresses, and over the next few years, that will probably change…and frankly, that sucks. The last thing the White Sox need is another annoyingly solid starter to haunt us for the next few years.

Even me, the most optimistic of all White Sox fans, cannot find a reason to predict victory on Wednesday. I hope I’m wrong.

Twins win 5-2.

White Sox-Twins Preview: Thursday

• First Pitch: 7:10 CT
• TV: CSN / MLB Network
• Pitching Matchup: Carl Pavano (16-11, 3.47 ERA) vs Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.99 ERA)

I love Danks, Floyd, and Jackson. All are above average pitchers who typically give the White Sox a chance to win. But if you asked me who I’d want on the bump if my life depended on a White Sox W, I’d choose Mark Buehrle every time.

I’ve written before about Buehrle’s status as the ace of the White Sox and how underrated he is. A major reason for this is that while Buehrle’s overall career numbers are not overwhelming, he has usually stepped up big against two of the three teams that have been the White Sox main consistent rivals during Buehrle’s tenure: Minnesota and Detroit.

• vs Minnesota: 25-17 in 46 starts, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
• vs Detroit: 16-8 in 29 starts, 3.01 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

(Cleveland fans, shut up. I know the Indians have killed Buehrle – 12-15 lifetime record – but that means nothing for the purposes of this discussion.)

This year, Buehrle has been predictably strong against Minnesota. He is 2-1 in three starts with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s only struck out eight Twins in 23 innings, but he’s also only walked three. Vintage Buehrle.

So if you’re a White Sox, you feel good about the man on the hill for you on Thursday.

Unfortunately, Twins fans will feel pretty good with their own mustachioed mound maestro: Carl Pavano. The Big Apple Pariah has resurrected his career with an outstanding season in Minnesota. And unlike many Minnesota pitchers, Pavano is better on the road (3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) than at home (3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).

He has not, however, been quite as good against the White Sox this season. His overall numbers are 2-1 in three starts with a 4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and a .315 BAA. In his defense though, Pavano does have a sterling 13:1 K:BB rate against Chicago, and 15 of the 28 hits he’s given up to the White Sox, along with 6 of the 11 earned runs, came in his last start against the Good Guys. His other two starts against Chicago were both very good.

So we really can’t know what to expect from the White Sox offense against Pavano Thursday night. He could shut us down or we could tattoo him again. Both have already happened this year.

And that’s where I like the White Sox chances. Buehrle’s worst start against Minnesota this year was his first, back in April: 8 innings, 4 ER. He went 8 IP, 3 ER his next time out, then 7 IP, 0 ER after that. The trend is going in the right direction, which is the opposite for Pavano.

The hitters to watch for the White Sox in this matchup, based on the history, are Paul Konerko (.963 OPS in 27 ABs), A.J. Pierzynski (1.045 OPS in 22 ABs), and Alex Rios (.924 OPS in 22 ABs). This may be a good day to rest Quentin though. He’s 0-10 lifetime against Pavano.

Minnesota’s hitters have much more established track records against Buehrle, who they’ve seen so often over the past decade. Denard Span has fared the best, with a 1.037 OPS in 31 ABs. Delmon Young has also done well, with a .942 OPS in 30 ABs. Conversely, Joe Mauer (.647 OPS in 46 ABs) and Jason Kubel (.624 OPS in 14 ABs) have not fared as well.

White Sox-Twins Thursday Prediction: If the first two games go as I predicted them, and the remaining games this weekend go as I predicted, the White Sox will need this win to move to 4.0 games back. That is a seemingly insurmountable advantage with so few days left on the regular season calendar, but it at least keeps the White Sox in it.

And I do think Mark Buehrle wins this matchup. He may even do it without any help from the bullpen. Buehrle knows when he needs to put the White Sox on his back, and he usually does it, especially against Minnesota.

Also, there are troubling signs for Pavano. He’s only struck out six hitters in his last 23 innings, although all three are quality starts (1-2 record). Plus, his last memory of facing the White Sox is getting hit around like a pinata.

A desperate White Sox team will come through a big victory on this night, and hopefully the momentum can carry the White Sox to a white hot finish to the season. They’ll need it to have a chance.

White Sox win 7-1.

White Sox-Twins: The Rest of September

Based on my predictions, the White Sox will be 4.0 games out heading into next Friday. A bounce here or there and obviously that number could swing in either direction by a game or two. We’ll see what happens.

But assuming 4.0 games is the deficit, will White Sox fans have any reasonable hope of a late season surge? Here are the remaining schedules for the two squads.

White Sox:

• vs DET (3)
• @ OAK (3)
• @ LAA (3)
• vs BOS (4)
• vs CLE (3)

Twins:

• vs OAK (3)
• vs CLE (3)
• @ DET (3)
• @ KC (3)
• vs TOR (4)

Not really much of an advantage either way. Both teams have 10 games at home and 6 on the road. Both play Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit. Both get an AL East squad out of the race, and both go on the road to face teams that aren’t very good this year (KC and LAA).

Basically, the White Sox will need to catch fire and the Twins will need to collapse. Is it possible? Of course it is. Is it probable? Probably not.

But the joy of being a fan is knowing that as long as your team has a mathematical chance, something crazy could always happen. And we watch, and we hope, and we implore both our teams to rise to the occasion and the sports gods to smile down upon us with benevolence.

For the White Sox, being five games out with just 3+ weeks left is tantamount to hanging by a thread. But at least we’re hanging and have a reason to stay engaged during September. Now let’s just hope that we’re not hanging on in vain.

Last night’s comeback win over Kansas City was huge and certainly rekindled my excitement. And I like our chances at home against Minnesota next week. As Hawk would say, don’t stop now boys…

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* – AJ / JJ photo source: SBNation

* – Paulie/Buehrle photo source: RightWingHouse.com

* – Brian Duensing photo source: TwinkieTown.com

And though this may seem sacrilegious to say considering the Strasburg mania that has swept America, our initial glimpses of Chapman have somehow been more impressive than the man for whom Strasmas was eponymously named.

Still, no matter how dominant Aroldis Chapman may be, he is definitively not the Cuban Missile, as so many are claiming. That title belongs to White Sox SS Alexei Ramirez, and I hereby issue this blog post as a cease & desist to all of you disrepsectful, unoriginal, non-contributing zeroes (thanks Louis) who think it’s okay to take one man’s nickname and slap it onto another.

You disgust me.

Full disclosure: I feel like I need to admit that I have, at certain points in the past, referred to LaDainian Tomlinson as “LT”, a clear violation of my one-nickname-per-man rule, as well as referring to both Michael Jordan and Michael Jackson as “MJ”. However, I will say that I think the unwritten rules of nicknames become a little more lenient when we are discussing different eras and/or different sports or mediums.

Now, before I go any further, allow me to channel the brilliant thoughts of a great man, which sum up my feelings on this Chapman-Missile nonsense:

Yes, this absolutely grinds my gears.

During Spring Training of his 2008 rookie season, Alexei Ramirez – a native of Cuba – was dubbed “The Cuban Missile” by Ozzie Guillen. His lithe frame, high top-end speed, and lightning quick bat made the nickname perfectly appropriate.

After struggling early on, the Missile went on to hit four grand slams – many of them tremendously clutch – en route to a a terrific final line of .290-21-77-65-13 in only 136 games. He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting to Evan Longoria. Alexei then went .277-15-68-71-14 during his sophomore campaign, numbers that were admittedly a bit of a disappointment after how his rookie year ended.

He has rebounded in 2010, however, to settle in as a consistent offensive force on a team that desperately has needed one (he is at .286-16-57-71-8 with a month left to go). He has also become one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, a fact that few people seem to realize since Alexei plays in the relative obscurity of Chicago’s South Side and the AL Central.

Add it all up and the 28-year old Ramirez (he’ll be 29 on September 22nd) has become one of the most all-around productive shortstops in Major League Baseball.

So why in the hell is Alexei, an established veteran, having his nickname poached because clowns are enamored with a flame-thrower who has logged all of two major league innings?

He shouldn’t be. And I’m here to demand that it stops.

I understand why many people think that “Missile” fits for Chapman, and obviously the “Cuban Missile” tie-in is so obvious it needs no explanation. The guy is throwing 102, 103, 104 mph fastballs and being compared to legends like J.R. Richard and…Stephen Strasburg. Obviously we are witnessing an extraordinarily rare talent who we all hope has staying power on the big league level.

This young pitching prodigy deserves to have his own nickname, befitting his transcendent talent, just as much as Alexei Ramirez has earned the right to keep his nickname all to himself. So stop calling Aroldis Chapman the “Cuban Missile”. Not only are you disrespecting the original Cuban Missile, but you are selling Chapman’s mound brilliance short.

Now, if I were just a whiny blogger, I might end here, pointing out a problem and bitching about it yet offering no practical solution. I realize that as sports fans we like to have nicknames to call great players. Thus, I have come up with a few that keep in mind the following realities about any potential nickname for Aroldis Chapman:

1. It has to reference his native Cuba.
2. It has to reference the mind-blowing velocity of his fastball.

So here are some options that keep both of those two realities in mind:

Fidel Fastro – A reference to Cuba’s controversial dictator. Could also be “Fidel Fastthrow”, which keeps the sound of the syllables of the same, but is a bit cumbersome.

The Communist Manifasto – A reference to Karl Marx’s…legendary?…work that is clearly a favorite on the bookshelves of the Cuban government. This could also be “The Communist Man of Fast Throw” or, more simply, “The Communist Manifastthrow”. I think I like “The Communist Man of Fast Throw” myself (though I doubt it will receive critical acclaim in the comment section).

Cha - We could just take the first letters of Chapman’s last name as an homage to another legendary (though grossly misunderstood) figure in Cuba’s history – Che. The idea here is that Chapman’s fastball is so fast, you can’t even say his full last name before the ball hits the catcher’s mit. This one’s a bit of a stretch, and requires to much explanation to make sense…I know.

The Cuban Missile Thriceis – a reference to Chapman’s ability to hit triple digits on the radar gun. (Not a big fan of this one…)

I like The Communist Man of Fast Throw myself, although it’s a bit bulky to ever really catch on. I now turn it over to you, my brilliant and creative readers, to come up with a new nickname for Aroldis Chapman.

If we get enough responses I’ll open a poll so everyone can vote on a winner (who will get a T-shirt like this sent to them, courtesy of the fine folks at Alternative Hero.)

Update: This post is now up on Reddit. Something tells me the clever folks at r/sports will be able to come up some good potential nicknames. I like “Havana Heat” so far.

Update: I just thought of another one: “The Cuban Trifector”. It’s a play on him being a Cuban defector and the fact that he is famous for hitting triple digits on the radar guns. Just throwing these out there as they come to me…

Unfortunately, that moment was the high point of the first two months of the 2010 baseball season.

The White Sox lost the next four games and have been fighting just to get their heads above water ever since. As things stand today, with the White Sox having completed their April and May slate of games, the South Siders are a pathetic 22-28, 8.0 games behind Minnesota in the AL Central.

Yet all hope is not lost for the 2010 season…at least not for me…at least not yet.

The White Sox undoubtedly need a monster June to position themselves to compete for a division title during the second half of the season, and there are plenty of legitimate statistical reasons to believe that such a month is possible.

Yes, somehow I see good things right around the corner for the Sox with one merciful flip of a calendar page that will happen after today. Let’s down them down.

1. The Schedule

The White Sox schedule was not awful over the first two months of the season, but it was difficult, with an opponents winning percentage of .512. April and May featured seven games against the Rays, five against the Twins, three against the Yankees, and eight against surprising Toronto. The Tigers, Rangers, and Angels were all also sprinkled in there as well.

Chicago also did not help matters by playing poorly against the easier teams on its schedule, most notably the damn Indians, who the Sox have given six of their 18 victories.

In June, however, the White Sox only see the “mighty” Indians three times and overall face a schedule with a current winning percentage of .469 (as of May 30th). Instead of the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays, the White Sox get the Cubs (6 times), Pirates (3), and Nationals (3). June also does include seemingly tougher sets with the Rangers, Braves, and Tigers, but overall it is much kinder.

All in all, just by schedule alone, one could reasonably expect the White Sox to play closer to .500 baseball during June. Sadly that would be an improvement, but hey, we’ll take any improvement we can get at this point.

2. The Speed

Much was made in the offseason of the White Sox getting faster and becoming less reliant on the long ball to score runs. This supposed return to the “small ball” principles of Ozzie’s first couple of years in Chicago did not seem to be paying dividends early in the season, but that started to turn around in May.

New leadoff hitter Juan Pierre, after a horrid start to the year in which he hit .193 in April and scored just 8 runs, rebounded in May to hit .286, steal 10 bases, and score 14 runs. While Pierre’s .339 OBP in May still left something to be desired, the improvement in production from the leadoff spot was imperative, as was the lineup’s ability to turn Pierre’s speed into runs.

Similarly, Alex Rios produced an across the board spike during May. The team’s clear MVP through the season’s first two months had a whopping 1.106 OPS during May while stealing 7 bases and scoring 22 runs.

It has been a long, long time since the White Sox enjoyed this much speed at the top of the order, and with the power of Paulie, CQ, and Andruw Jones so inconsistent, the ability to manufacture runs takes on increasing importance.

If the May turnaround at the top of the order continues into June, the much maligned White Sox offense should continue its improvement, led by the speedy Pierre and the speed/power combo of Rios that has him on pace for 33 HRs and 48 SBs.

3. The Splits

This is easily the most important of the three reasons, mainly because it is the most compelling and predictive of what we can expect from certain White Sox players in June based on their career averages.

Gavin Floyd

What led me to dig into this topic in the first place was wondering how far off Gavin Floyd’s current numbers were from where he usually sits at the end of May. I was considering dropping him in a fantasy league, but thought I should do a little more research first because he’s always seemed like a slow starter.

It’s a good thing I looked.

For his career, Floyd is 7-2 in 13 career June starts with a 3.12 ERA and a sizzling WHIP of 1.15. June is by far his best month of the season. Contrast that with his career April (8-8, 6.30 ERA) and May numbers (7-8, 5.47 ERA), and Floyd’s current 6.02 ERA and 1.54 WHIP don’t seem all that unusual.

If the rest of Floyd’s 2010 season go according to history, he should win 10-12 games and sport an ERA right around 4.00. But the White Sox need wins now to ensure that the team does not get broken up and that there is meaningful post-All Star break baseball on the South Side; that means June is do-or-die.

No White Sox player is as historically dominant in June as Gavin Floyd. He needs to keep that trend going.

Paul Konerko

Maybe I should have said that no White Sox pitcher is as historically dominant in June as Gavin Floyd, because ol’ Paulie usually rakes pretty well during the season’s third month as well.

Consider these June/career splits for Paul Konerko:

• BA: .296 / .277
• OPS: .911 / .845
• AB per HR: 14.8 / 18.4

Paul’s career averages are already very solid. During the month of June, they become very good to almost great.

We all know how streaky Konerko can be; heck, just look at his April/May splits this year (1.197 OPS in April, .712 in May). For the White Sox to experience the kind of June turnaround they need to become contenders, Paul Konerko’s June production must fall in line with his career norms. If so, he an Alex Rios could form one of the most underrated and productive 3-4 combos in the league and drive in a lot of runs together.

Mark Buehrle

Gavin Floyd isn’t the only pitcher and Paul Konerko isn’t the only White Sox veteran who loves the month of June. Mark Buehrle also seems to enjoy June more than any other month as well.

Consider the following:

• Mark Buehrle has started 50 June games during his career, tied with April for the fewest of any month; yet Buehrle has won 27 games in June, more than any other month,  and lost only 11 games, the fewest of any month.
• Buehrle’s 3.38 career June ERA is bested only by his 3.30 career ERA in May. His 1.18 June WHIP is better than any other month.
• Buehrle strikes out more batters per nine innings and walks fewer during June than in any other month.

While Buehrle’s splits are not anywhere near as extreme as Floyd’s, June has always been his best month. With a 4.38 ERA right now in 2010, Mark needs another strong June to rebound and get closer to his career ERA of 3.82.

AJ Pierzynski

Continuing with our batter-after-pitcher trend, AJ Pierzynski is another White Sox vet who loves June. He’ll need a productive one to get his current .211 batting average closer to last year’s surprising .300 clip, which came during what was one of his best seasons at the dish.

For his career, AJ is a .283 hitter but a .312 hitter in June. Both numbers presage improvement for AJ moving forward. Veteran baseball players usually revert to their career norms and AJ has proven to be much, much better than a .211 hitter.

The good news for the White Sox is that AJ doesn’t just slap more singles during June. He hits with more power as well. AJ’s career .424 slugging percentage improves to .481 in June. His on base percentage also improves, up to .350 from its norm of .324 as AJ has a slightly higher walk rate in June.

Freddy Garcia

How about another pitcher? Sure!

Freddy Garcia may have a tenuous grip on the 5th starter’s slot with Dan Hudson nipping at his heels in the minors, but the White Sox may want to delay any decisions until after June. Freddy has a career ERA of 4.12 and is sporting a 5.26 ERA so far this season, but history suggests that Freddy will pitch well in June, sputter for the next two months after that, and then pitch his best in September.

For his career, Garcia has a 3.79 ERA in June and a 1.23 WHIP with a record of 24-11. The White Sox would certainly welcome numbers even 80-85% of that from Garcia at the back end of the rotation.

The other months for Garcia are littered with 4+ ERAs and 1.3+ WHIPs, but he gets serious again in September, as White Sox fans know from 2005, and has a 26-11 record, 3.31 ERA, and and 1.17 WHIP in 51 career September starts (the most of any month).

If Garcia can pick it up in June, along with Floyd and Buehrle, his September prowess just may have some significance.

Alexei Ramirez and Others

Those five guys, all veterans with established track records, show clear historical preference for the month of June. Another guy who loves June, though whose experience is not quite as extensive, is Alexei Ramirez.

The Cuban Missile has a solid .316/.362/.505 June line and has hit 10 career June homers, the most of any month. Alexei also has solid July and August numbers, but June is clearly his preferred month, and usually the point at which he snaps out of his early season doldrums to become a productive member of the offense.

With a .254 average and only 4 HRs so far this season, Alexei could use another June turnaround, and there is no reason to think he won’t do it again.

There are also some other guys on the White Sox roster who have done well historically in June, though perhaps not as markedly as the guys mentioned above:

• John Danks‘ 3.09 ERA in June is his second best (3.03, April)
• Bobby Jenks‘ 2.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are his second best (1.21 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, August)
• June is Mark Teahen’s most productive month other than September.

Conclusion

What does all this mean? Not a whole hell of a lot in reality. It really just means that frustrated White Sox fans like me, KVB, and you (if you’re a White Sox fan, which I assume you are if you’re read this far) should wait at least one more month before burying the 2010 Pale Hose.

And I know what you’re probably thinking. So what if the White Sox have a great June? If all of these guys peak in June, how will they have enough in July, August, and September to keep up with Minnesota and Detroit anyway?

That’s a great point, to which I say simply: I don’t care.

The season’s last three months will be irrelevant if the White Sox do not have a huge June. If they can position themselves to compete by the beginning of July, anything is possible. If they stay 5-6 games under .500 come the All Star Break, you can start breaking out the shovels and eulogies for the 2010 White Sox.

The White Sox would need to go 17-10 in June to creep back over .500. If they can do this, they’ll be 39-38 heading into July, and you’d have to think somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5 games out of first place. That isn’t a great position to be in, and the odds of winning the AL Central would still be against the White Sox, but it’d sure be a hell of a lot better than six games under and 8.0 back. At least the team would have a shot.

So the question is, can a team currently playing .440 baseball play .630 baseball for an entire month to get its head above water? The easy answer is probably not; the hopeful answer, however, is (you can put it on the board…) yes.  Luckily for those hoping, there is at least some statistical evidence, as laid out in this post, to suggest that it’s possible.

And wouldn’t you know it? I saved the most compelling piece of evidence for last.

If you total up the career June won/loss records of the White Sox current starting rotation, which has woefully underperformed expectations so far in 2010, you get 72-40. That is a .643 clip, which is better than the aforementioned .630 clip I cited as getting the White Sox over .500.

So before you think going 17-10 in June is improbable, remember that all the White Sox pitchers need to do is perform to their career norms, and if Paulie, AJ, and Alexei can produce at their usual June clips, the pitchers will get more run support, wins easier to come by, and the White Sox can start to make their move.

With that said, all we can do now is sit back, relax, and strap it down…and hope that June 2010 is as White Sox-friendly as past Junes have been. If so, the White Sox can make it a three team race again and have a fighting chance at their second AL Central crown in three years.

I still believe it can happen, and the numbers suggest that you should too…at least for one more month.

*********

* – Alex Rios photo credit: Jerry Lai/US Presswire via ESPN.com

* – Mark Buehrle / Paul Konerko photo credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images via ESPN.com

* – Paul Konerko photo credit: Rumors and Rants

Naturally, it was assumed that when the Toronto Blue Jays made Roy Halladay available that the White Sox would get involved.

And as team after team has fallen off of the Blue Jays radar screen, gauging the asking price to be too high even for one of the best pitchers of this decade, the White Sox still apparently linger as a potential trade partner for Toronto…at least in one writer’s mind.

In a recent column, Rick Morrisey of the Tribune wrote that the White Sox should do whatever is necessary to pry Halladay away from the Blue Jays, floating a package of John Danks and Alexei Ramirez as a possibility.

So what’s it going to take to get Halladay, the Blue Jays’ star pitcher?

Let’s put on our GM cap and start with shortstop Alexei Ramirez and pitcher John Danks. I know: a steep price. But worth it. Halladay is the overpowering pitcher the Sox haven’t had since Jack McDowell. Last season, he struck out 206 batters and walked 39. So far this year, it’s 106-17.

Admittedly, I’m torn on whether I would pull the trigger on such a deal.  I was all for the Peavy trade because it was based on prospects, guys who had not yet proven their Major League readiness.  John Danks and Alexei Ramirez have already proven to be above average players at their respective positions, and have also proven to be clutch performers in a pennant race (as evidenced by Alexei’s game-winning grand slam down the stretch last year and John Danks’ incredible start in the one-game playoff to propel the White Sox into the postseason).

Of course, Roy Halladay has been one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in baseball since 2001.

What do you think?  Would you do this deal? My gut reaction is to say no, but part of that may be an attachment to Alexei and Danks, both of whom I love and see as young building blocks for the future of the White Sox. The argument for a Halladay deal is that it gives the White Sox a better chance to win this season. The way I look at that is which combo would you rather have: Halladay pitching with Beckham at short and Fields at third, or Danks pitching with Alexei at short and Beckham at third?

Josh Fields hasn’t proven he can be consistent with the bat or the glove, so our infield would certainly weaken in the field (though perhaps not by much…we can’t get much worse in the field) and at the plate, barring a great Fields turnaround. But does Halladay’s consistent dominance improve the White Sox that much more every fifth day over Danks?  I will say this about Danks: he is a significantly less effective pitcher in July and August during his short career than he’s been in the other months.  However, he’s been solid in September.

The other issue that would have to be taken into account is contracts.  As Morrisey points out:

The financial cost of acquiring Halladay is not prohibitive: about $7 million for the rest of this year and $15.75 million in 2010.

John Danks is approaching his arbitration eligible years (beginning next season) and the White Sox will have to decide whether or not to sign him to a long-term deal.  Certainly any deal with Danks would have to rival what rotation mate Gavin Floyd received this offseason.  Floyd’s deal bought out his arbitration-eligible seasons for four years, $15.5 million.  I would have to assume that as a 25 year old lefty, Danks would be able to command a higher price than Floyd.  

Still, their combined contract would be far less than what the White Sox would have to pony up to lock Halladay up to a long-term deal after his current deal expires in 2010.  Would you rather have Danks and Floyd locked up for the next half decade or Roy Halladay and Floyd for a year and a half, and then only Floyd?

Alexei Ramirez will also have a contract coming up soon, and I’m sure plenty of teams would love a speedy, power-hitting middle infielder in the prime of his career. But I would assume Alexei’s first choice would be to stay on the South Side, in the very Latino-friendly clubhouse managed by Ozzie Guillen.  And if the White Sox could get Floyd, Danks, and Ramirez locked up, then do what the Rays did with Evan Longoria and what the Brewers did with Ryan Braun and sign Gordon Beckham long-term before he becomes arbitration-eligible, as well as lock up Carlos Quentin, then there will be a solid nucleus of young talent to carry the team through the transition years when Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and others eventually have to exit stage left.

The more I write about this potential deal (which really is just Morrisey’s conjecture as far as I can tell) the less I like it.  Sure, I’d love to have Halladay for this year and next, but not if the price is Danks and Ramirez.  If it’s one of those guys and an unproven minor leaguer, fine. Obviously you have to give up a lot to get a guy like Halladay.  But Danks and Ramirez are building blocks for the future of this team, whereas Halladay would likely be a rental for one season plus a couple of months.

I’ll trust Ken Williams to make the ultimate decision if such a deal ever gets on the table, and there would definitely be an exciting buzz if Halladay came to the South Side; but I’m not holding my breath.  Check out the most recent column at MLB Trade Rumors detailing the Roy Halladay trade rumors and you will see nary a mention of the White Sox.  I know that Ken likes to work in the shadows, but I’ll reserve all future analysis and comment of Roy Halladay until something concrete is actually out there.

Until then, I’m quite happy with the team that we have, and still confident that our 2005 vets have one more strong October run in them…with our without Roy Halladay.

* – Roy Halladay photo credit: Getty Images via SportsNet.ca

The White Sox only other sweep of the season came at the end of May when the Good Guys swept three on the road against the Kansas City Royals. And as KVB and I lament to eachother all of the time, the White Sox never seem to complete sweeps. It always seems like any time we take the first two or three games of a series there is a letdown in the final game. Either the regular lineup sleepwalks through the game, we get a terrible pitching performance, or Ozzie throws out one of his crazy lineups where Brian Anderson is hitting cleanup.

I’m exaggerating…but not by much.

Not yesterday though. Last night, the White Sox continued playing the solid brand of baseball that has propelled them to five straight wins and 12 wins in their last 17 games. Over that same time span, a fan base — and maybe even a team and an entire organization — has been reborn into one that expects, rather than hopes, to be playing baseball in October.

At least that’s how I feel. And hopefully the rest of the South Side is with me. (And if you’re not, I have a few words from Steve Perry I’d like to share with you. That’s right, I went there.)

Truthfully, what has transpired over the last couple of weeks has renewed my faith that the White Sox will ultimately come out on top in a very competitive AL Central. I have to admit that through the ups and downs of this season it has been hard to maintain that faith. Case in point: Ozzie saying that we are in trouble if we have to bring up Gordon Beckham…and then shortly thereafter Beckham gets brought up.

And yes, I realize that the majority of the recent success has come against the inferior National League (and then the even more inferior Indians), so I will grant you that the White Sox haven’t exactly been mowing down the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays; but, the Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Reds are all at least decent teams (especially LA, with our without Manny) so I don’t think you can simply chalk up the White Sox success to playing subpar competition.

No, there are many reasons why the White Sox are winning and the majority of them have to do with the players themselves and the better brand of baseball they are playing.

Will they make the playoffs? I’m not going to make any proclamations and jinx them. (Full disclosure: in preparation for this post I researched Jim Fassel’s infamous playoff guarantee when he was coaching the Giants and had planned on altering it for purposes of my own guarantee here. Then I thought the better of it.) But what seemed like a rather ridiculous conversation a few weeks ago is starting to look more and more realistic.

So in honor of the White Sox 40th victory of the season, and because it is my lucky number (in honor of my favorite basketball player of all-time), here are 40 reasons, in no particular order, why the White Sox have a great shot to win the AL Central and make a return trip to the playoffs in 2009.

1 — Ozzie Guillen. The SI players poll may suggest that other players don’t want to play for him, but his own players do. And they have proven it every year outside of that awful and anomalous 2007. As long as Ozzie is the skipper, I’ll always believe in the White Sox. Paws up.

2 — We actually have a productive 1-2 punch at the top of the order! Most White Sox fans had forgotten what that feels like. 2005 hero Scotty Pods and Sexy Alexei have reminded us over the last 50 or so games. If Podsednik can come close to maintaining his .368 OBP, and if Alexei can continue to put his early season woes behind him (and improve upon his .398 SLG), the White Sox will have the run production and speed they need at the top of the lineup.

3 — We get THE Carlos Quentin back around the All Star Break. Remember him? Mr. Porcelain, but also the best player in the American League through the end of August last year? The White Sox offense has fortuitously been able to find its footing over the last month without him, but no one has forgotten how important Quentin is to the overall makeup of our team. Assuming Quentin can even be 80% of his normal self throughout the rest of the season, he will provide a huge presence that has been sorely lacking.

4 — Jose F*****g Contreras. I love this guy. He’s like a phoenix. Every time you think he’s finished he rises again to prove why he was such a hot commodity upon defecting here from Cuba. And there are few guys that I trust more in big spots than Contreras. He was AWFUL to start the year, but since heading down to the minors he has found his touch again and has given up only 9 runs over five starts that have covered a little over 37 innings.

5 — Mark Buehrle is Mark Buehrle. He’s not always pretty, and he’ll get knocked around every now and then, but the numbers are always there. This year he’s 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s an ace. You have to have one to win division titles, and I’ll just say it: you’re wrong if you don’t think Mark Buehrle is an ace.

6 – Gavid Floyd has become the good Gavin again. Gavin’s season has followed an arc similar to Contreras’. He struggled mightily out of the gate, but look at his game log since May 22. Floyd has not gone less that six innings or given up more than three runs in any start. That’s eight quality starts in a row. Even more exciting is the fact that he hasn’t walked more than three batters in any of those starts either. This guy was the #4 overall pick in 2001 by the Phillies for a reason. We’ve seen why over the past 6 weeks.

7 – John Danks has become the good Danks again. Danks is another pitcher who had an up and down first 6 weeks of the season, but has turned it around. And he’s saved his best outings of the season for his two most important starts thus far: his two outings against the Cubs. Danks gave up one run over 14 innings against the Cubs. Yes, their offense sucks, but Danks has pitched four straight quality starts, going at least seven innings in all four, and the guy proved last year that he’s clutch.

8 – Is the quartet of Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Jose Contreras reminding anyone over the last month or so of another White Sox pitching staff of recent vintage? Eating innings, throwing quality starts almost every time out, and stepping up big in key spots…sounds a lot like the 2005 staff to me. Buehrle and Contreras are the holdovers, but Floyd and Danks have been every bit as good as Garland and Garcia. And remember, neither El Duque or Brandon McCarthy was that great in the fifth spot during the regular season that year. If the pitching continues on its current trend, and we know they are capable, this is a World Series-quality staff.

9 – Gordon Beckham is here and he’s every bit as good as advertised. Yeah, the kid struggled out of the gate, but look at his last seven games: 12-21 with a HR and 6 RBI. We all love Josh Fields and wish he had taken ahold of the hot corner when he had his chance, but Beckham is the future. And he is proving that he just may be the present as well.

10 – Did I mention Carlos Quentin is coming back at the All Star Break?

11 – Aaron Poreda is with the big club now and has not given up a run in his first five innings of work out of the bullpen. He has six Ks and only one BB and has given up only four hits. The Rays received a jolt from their phemon pitcher David Price last year. Could Poreda fill a similar role for the White Sox? He’s certainly had an auspicious beginning.

12 – Bobby Jenks is still one of the best closers in the game, and is as battle tested as anyone not named Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon. The big man has 18 saves on the season and has 28 Ks in 28 innings this year, a drastic improvement upon his sharply declining K rate from last year. He may not have the same gas he had back in 2005, but he is a much better pitcher now. And he’s already proven his stones on the biggest stage.

13 – Still, there are rumors that the White Sox might trade Bobby Jenks before the trade deadline. I do not want to this happen, nor do I think it will now that we’ve reemerged as a legitimate contender. Closers with Bobby’s stuff, talent, moxie, and proven experience do not grow on trees; and it’s rare to see a team get far in October without one. Regardless, on the off chance that we do trade Jenks, we’ve got a great bullpen filled with guys I would have confidence in to take over the role. (But Kenny…if you’re listening…don’t trade Bobby!)

14 – Matt Thornton has had a few rougher outings of late, but is still holding opponents to a .214 average and has struck out 39 batters in 31.2 innings.

15 – Octavio Dotel is walking way too many guys (21 in 30.2 innings) but has 39 strikeouts of his own through 30.2 innings and has successful closing experience in his past.

16 – D.J. Carrasco has come into his own as a very valuable asset in the bullpen. He’s logged 48.2 innings in 26 games and has an ERA under 3.00. He has given up seven runs over his last six outings though, so he needs to get himself back on track. But, as a former starter, he has the arm strength to be a bullpen savior on days when we need one.

17 – Scott Linebrink has not been great this year, but still has an ERA of 2.17 and averages more than a K per inning. He is not closer material — Thornton or Dotel would pick up that slack if Jenks is moved — but he remains a solid option as a setup man.

18 – Regardless of whether or not Kenny trades Bobby (don’t do it!!!), each of those four guys plus Poreda gives the White Sox an outstanding bullpen that I’d put up against any in the league. Still, I think Kenny will hang onto a proven closing commodity like Jenks, so each of the bullpen guys will get to stay in the roles they have been successful in and form one of the most unsung units in all of baseball.

19 – Ken Williams. He has to be listed as a reason why the White Sox can (and will!) make the playoffs. As White Sox fans we may not agree with all of his moves, but we have to give him this: he never stops being proactive to improve our chances. And I think his gameplan entering this season was brilliant. He put together a vet-laden team with a few new additions that, if everything fell right, had a good chance to make the playoffs. But he also has been restocking the farm system to the point where we can all feel pretty secure that when the Buehrle-Konerko-Dye era ends, the White Sox will be okay.

20 – Let’s get back to the offense, because its resurgence is one of the main reasons why the White Sox have started playing better baseball. And the most important cog in the White Sox offensive machine is still Jermaine Dye. As usual, Jermaine is quietly putting up solid numbers (.294, 18 HR, 48 RBI) and providing a steadying and consistent presence in the middle of the lineup. This guy was a World Series MVP in 2005 and was damn close to being the league MVP in 2006. He’s not quite the same player now — age will do that to you — but he is still good enough to be the second best hitter on a team that makes a deep playoff run.

21 – Carlos Quentin, of course, will hopefully resume his role as the best hitter on the team when he returns. And did I mention that he’s coming back around the All Star Break? My apologies if I didn’t. Quentin is coming back around the All Star Break.

22 – Paul Konerko, like Jermaine Dye, is having a solid season in the heart of the order (.290, 13 HR, 49 RBI). Like Dye, Konerko is not as ferocious as he once was, but is still good enough. And like Dye, Konerko has proven himself in clutch situations. I know that the combo of Dye and Konerko may not be all that sexy or exciting, but there is something to be said for battle-tested veterans who are team leaders and the essence of the term “professional hitters.” Paulie is still getting the job done both at the plate and in the field, as is JD.

23 – Chris Getz sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all of the hullabaloo about Gordon Beckham, but Getz is providing something that our lineup has sorely lacked over the last couple of years: speed. He, Scotty Pods, and Alexei all have 11 or more stolen bases. Finally the White Sox have some people who can put a little pressure on other teams with the running game.

24 – AJ Pierzynski will never wow you with his stats, and he’ll do things that make you scratch your head sometimes (like his putrid ground out on the first pitch with the bases loaded at the end of one of our games last week), but he’s scrappy and he’s a winner. AJ comes through in the clutch more than often than not, and is underrated behind the plate (except for his arm, which can’t really be rated low enough). You need a good catcher to win, and the White Sox have one in AJ.

25 – The White Sox also seem to have found a backup catcher. Ramon Castro has blasted two home runs in 21 ABs since joining the team a couple weeks ago and is a guy who has always had monstrous power. Playing half of his games at The Cell with the weather warming up may be just the opportunity he needs to show that he can be a 25-30 HR guy someday. We’ll gladly take production anywhere close to that from our backup.

(BTW…all stats for the last six or seven of these have been taken from the White Sox hompage.)

26 – A couple of curses ended last year and we don’t have to worry about them anymore. The Jim Thome Curse and The Curse of the Douche Bag.

27 – Detroit has only three starters worth a crap (Verlander, E. Jackson, Porcello) and one of them is a 20-year old rookie (Porcello). Yes, Porcello has been very good this year, but how is his arm going to be holding up in September? He supposedly has a great makeup, but he’s never been through the pressure of a pennant race. If the Tigers cannot some more starting pitching, they are going to fall back even further to the pack.

28 – Curtis Granderson (.339 OBP, 18 HR, 13 SB) and Miguel Cabrera (.331 BA, 16 HR, 47 RBI) are really good, and Brandon Inge has certainly rebounded this year (18 HR, 52 RBI) from his subpar 2008, but what do the Tigers have after that? Magglio is on the sharp downside of his career and just is not supplying power anymore. Look at the other names that have chewed up the most ABs for Detroit this season: Placido Polanco, Gerald Laird, Adam Everett, Josh Anderson. Call me crazy, but I’ll take our offense for the rest of the season…especially once Quentin gets back.

29 – By the way, Quentin is coming back at The All Star Break.

30 – Minnesota is the Chicago’s other main competitor in the AL Central, and they have as many holes as Detroit. I do think that Minnesota’s pitching is better than what the numbers show (i.e. Baker’s 4.99 ERA and Slowey’s 4.41 ERA despite better peripherals) but this is a team that needed Francisco Liriano to be be an ace. Detroit has its ace in Justin Verlander and we have ours in Mark Buehrle. Who is it for the Twins? Baker and Slowey and very good #2-#3 starters, but the Twins do not have a guy who has proven he can take the ball and throw a gem in a big spot when the team needs it. Argue if you wish Twinkie fans, but that’s how I see it.

31 – Offensively, Minnesota has been surprisingly balanced this season. Look at the their team stats and tell me you aren’t surprised to see five guys with double-digit homers on the 2nd of July. In addition to the usual suspects (Mauer and Morneau), Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and (*sob*) Joe Crede all have 11 or more dingers. Add in the speed of Denard Span and Carlos Gomez and the Twins have a more dynamic offense than usual that has been able to somewhat compensate for its struggling pitching. However, this is still a team that goes how Mauer and Morneau go, and you may be surprised to learn that both hit below their career averages against the White Sox. In 331 career ABs against Chicago, Morneau (a .284 lifetime hitter) hits only .275. He has a career OPS of .858 that drops to .840 when playing against Chicago. (For the record, his HR rate is almost identical.) As for Mauer, Mr. .400 blah blah blah, he is a .324 career hitter with an OPS of .881. Against the White Sox that drops to .313 and .858. Are Mauer and Morneau terrible against Chicago? No. Have they come up big at certain points against the White Sox in the past? Yes. But they sure as hell didn’t against John Danks in last year’s one-game playoff, and anytime you make those two hit worse than normal you have a great chance to beat Minnesota.

32 – Detroit and Chicago are big-market teams that will make moves at the deadline to improve their chances this year. Minnesota does not have the same luxury. That knocks the Twins down at least a peg in comparison to the Tigers and White Sox.

33 – Take a look at a quick comparison between the aces of the White Sox and the Tigers. In 15 career starts against Chicago, Justin Verlander is 3-9 with a 5.44 ERA. In 27 career starts against Detroit, Mark Buehrle is 14-8 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. And, for the record, Buehrle is 23-13 lifetime against the Twins. So Peter Gammons and all of the other baseball analysts can go into the bathroom with a moist towelette and a mental image of Verlander’s incredible “stuff”, but the fact of the matter is that he doesn’t get the job done against his division rival. The underrated Buehrle, of course, does. So, in review: Minnesota has no ace, the Tigers do but he sucks against Chicago, and the White Sox ace (who many people erroneously don’t consider to be an ace) dominates the two best teams in his division. HUGE advantage White Sox.

34 – The White Sox schedule in the second half of September sets up beautifully for a late charge to pull away from the pack. From September 21-27 the White Sox play the Twins and Tigers three times each, all of which are in Chicago. These six games are sandwiched between three at home against Kansas City and then three on the road at Cleveland to end the season. And there is actually a good chance Cleveland will have just called off the season by then, giving the White Sox a three-game sweep by forfeit.

35 – Since the White Sox have no more games against the Rangers, I most likely will not be able to see them play live for the rest of the regular season. This is good because I think the White Sox have a .200 winning percentage in games I’ve attended over the years. When KVB and I go together it’s even worse than that. (Be thankful that we never moved to Chicago and got season tickets.) If the Sox make the playoffs, however, and especially if they go deep, I may not be able to stay away. My apologies in advance.

36 – I know, I know…I’ve left someone out who deserves mention: Jim Thome. Now that the White Sox are back playing in AL parks, Thome has returned to the lineup. He is by no means the masher he was in Cleveland or Philly, but the guy is still a productive hitter (.402 OBP, 13 HR, 42 RBI) and a tremendous leader in the clubhouse. It took me a while, but I’ve fully embraced him as a true Good Guy and he is another one of our battle-tested veterans who heats up with the weather.

37 – Time to address the elephant in the room: defense. This is the White Sox biggest weakness. Currently, there are only five teams in baseball with more fielding errors than the White Sox. And no one has had worse defense at the hot corner than Chicago (17 errors, .922 fielding percentage). With Joe Crede gone and the combo of Josh Fields-Gordon Beckham over there, that is to be expected. But on the bright side, this has no place to go but up. And considering that Gordon Beckham has only been playing third base for about a month, his struggles were anticipated. Most seem to think that he is a good enough athlete to become very good defensively at third. As the season goes along, I think we’ll see his production in the field improve.

38 – Another area on defense where the White Sox have struggled is at shortstop, where Alexei Ramirez recently drew the ire of Ozzie Guillen for lackluster and unfocused play. I definitely see this improving. Alexei has all of the tools to be not just a good shortstop, but a great one. And there is no way Ozzie will allow that position to be a consistent weakness.

39 – Getting back to pitching because I forgot someone: Clayton Richard. On the season he is 3-1 with a 4.48 ERA in 22 games (10 starts). Immediately after stepping into the rotation when Bartolo Colon went on the DL, Clayton strung together three straight excellent starts. I then picked him up on my fantasy team and he hasn’t thrown a quality start since. White Sox fans will be happy to know that I’ve dropped him again, which means that he will likely turn things back around. All kidding aside, Richard is nothing more than a 5th starter right now, but he is adequate. And when Colon comes back to the rotation (if he even does), he gives the White Sox a veteran presence who is still capable of putting up halfway decent numbers. The point is that while the White Sox don’t have a world beater in the 5th slot of the rotation, the guys they are throwing out there aren’t horrible. And with the offense picking things up, we can win with Richard or Colon on the bump. And who knows, maybe Poreda steps in there at some point and provides Porcello-like production. Either way, this slot will not keep up from winning the Central.

40 – And finally, reason #40 why the White Sox can, should, and I think will win the AL Central: the return of Carlos Quentin. Am I putting a lot on his shoulders? Yes. Is there a chance he comes back and gets injured again? Yes. But is his presence in the lineup necessary for this team long-term in 2009? I believe it absolutely is. The White Sox are proving they can without TCQ, but when you get one of the best players in the AL back after an extended absence it cannot be anything but a boon to your chances. And Carlos will have the entire second half of the season to get his timing back. Perhaps this year will be a reverse of last year in that Quentin will save his best for September in 2009. We missed him in September last year, but still found a way to claw our way to a playoff berth. With Quentin in September this year, I think the White Sox have a good chance of heading into the playoffs with momentum and their best all-around player hitting on all cylinders.

Say what you will about the 40 reasons listed above, but one thing is certain: those who stuck a fork in the White Sox a few weeks back did so prematurely. For some reason, people always seem to underestimate the managerial and leadership ability of Ozzie Guillen and the heart, character, and talent in the White Sox clubhouse. The good thing is that the only people who matter (Kenny, Ozzie, and the team) never doubted. Over the last three weeks we have seen why, and White Sox fans have every reason to believe that a return trip to the playoffs is not only possible but, at least in my opinion, very probable.

So sit back, relax, and strap it down, and let’s all enjoy what should be a great three-team race for the 2009 AL Central crown…one that will be made all the more exciting when the White Sox end up repeating as champions.

* – Scott Podsednik photo credit: MouthPieceSports.com

———-

DALLAS, Texas — May 26, 2009 — The National Unified Trust of the Society of Ass Clowns is pleased award Midwest Sports Fans author an “managing editor” JRod its esteemed Fantasy Baseball Douche Award for the week of May 25th, 2009. JRod has been named this week’s Fantasy Baseball Douche for his untimely and idiotic release of Alexei Ramirez early last week from his first place fantasy baseball team.

Despite extolling the virtues of the Cuban Missile earlier in the year — and being exactly right that Alexei Ramirez was simply off to a slow start and would turn it around — JRod decided to not even listen to his own advice, resulting in his releasing of Ramirez on May 21st. Since being released from JRod’s fantasy team, Alexei Ramirez has found a home hitting in the #2 hole and has gone 8-20 with 2 HRs, 6 RBI, 6 R, and 2 SB. For the season, Ramirez has overcome his putrid start to now have respectable totals for a second baseman of .243, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 14 R, and 8 SB, and obviously he is trending sharply upward.

N.U.T.S.A.C. would like to extend its most heartfelt congratulations to JRod for not only dropping a player with significant more upside than his current second baseman (Alberto Callapso of the Royals) but also for giving up on one of his favorite players in May. Nothing defines “douche” quite like that.

In related news, Lifetime Douchechievement Award winner recipient Jay Mariotti extends his most heartfelt congratulations to JRod.

“Well, I can’t say that I am pleased or proud to be winning this award,” JRod said in a statement. “However, I would like to state for the record that I held onto Alexei Ramirez in two other leagues and have reaped the fruits of Alexei’s success this week. Plus, I would be remiss if I did not point out that one of my motivating factors in dropping Alexei was the knowledge that each year I drop a player and he goes on to post incredible numbers the rest of the season. I was hopeful that by releasing Alexei it would help to turn his season around – which it did, almost immediately.”

After learning of JRod’s statement, N.U.T.S.A.C. has decided to also award him with next week’s Douche Award for using the phrase “reaped the fruits” and for making up a stupid excuse to rationalize his indefensible release of a ridiculously talented player on his own favorite team with a history of slow starts. To be fair, the fantasy team in question does currently sit in first place (thanks to lucky later round picks of Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Raul Ibanez) but how soon will that last with such a moronic loose cannon at the helm?

Congratulations JRod. You are this week’s N.U.T.S.A.C. Fantasy Baseball Douche.

———-

Okay, moving along now.

After a horrific 9-day stretch during which the White Sox went 1-7 and began to fall deep into the depths of the AL Central standings, the team rebounded for an absolutely necessary 5-2 week that got the Sox within 4 games of .500. Of course, this is the White Sox, so it was a 5-2 record unlike many you will see. The 5 wins included a 17-3 thrashing of the Angels last night, a series win against division rival Minnesota, and two straight shutouts against Pittsburgh in Interleague Play.

Amazingly, the two straight shutouts of the Pirates came immediately after the White Sox gave up 20 runs in a loss to the Twins. And the Sox other loss was a heartbreaking 4-3 defeat in the final game of the Pittsburgh series when Bobby Jenks blew the save. The inability of the White Sox to close out a sweep, or win the final game of a series, continues a disturbing trend. Thus far in 2009 the White Sox are 4-11 in the last game of a series. I guess that means no coffee for the White Sox.

Still, 5-2 is 5-2 and right now the White Sox and their fans will take any signs of life and positivity they can get. Last night’s 17-run explosion was certainly a sign of life, and hopefully it will continue. This season is far from over, with the White Sox 5.5 games out of the first place and only 1.5 games back of 2nd place Kansas City. Obviously with plenty of games left against Detroit and the rest of the AL Central remaining, nothing has been decided. And the White Sox veteran core is proving more and more every year that they don’t get hot until the weather warms up, so perhaps this kind of start is what we should have expected.

Of course, not everything was birthday cakes and butterflies last night. Struggling but ultra-important left fielder Carlos Quentin got hurt…again…after doubling in a run in the first inning. He was limping badly after feeling a pop in his sore foot and had to be helped off the field. The reports on Chisox.com actually sound pretty positive though, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed:

That pop cost Quentin the rest of the game and probably the remainder of this three-game set at Angel Stadium. But surprisingly, the injury might not be as bad as it sounds.

“Supposedly, from what I understand from [White Sox athletic trainer Herm Schneider], it is a good thing,” said White Sox bench coach Joey Cora, serving as manager in Ozzie Guillen’s absence. “But we’ll find out [tomorrow].”

By tomorrow, of course, they mean today. I’ll be scouring for news and will update if anything more is known about TCQ’s injury.

In other White Sox news…

Clayton Richard moving back to the bullpen once Jose Contreras is ready to rejoin the club may not be a foregone conclusion; nor should it be. Clayton has pitched very well over the past couple of weeks since being moved into the rotation, and he is a purported building block for the future.

I love Jose Contreras, but his ERAs from 2007-2009 (through 6 starts) are 5.57, 4.54, 8.19. He just has not been the same since being one of the most dominant pitchers in the league through the first half of 2006. I think that Ozzie needs to decide whether he will move forward with Contreras or Colon, but leave Clayton Richard alone. (And when I say “leave Clayton Richard alone”, I mean in regards to his rotation spot…not Ozzie’s apparent propensity for fondling the strapping youngster’s pecs. We should really do a caption contest for the pic to the right…) And if Richard begins to struggle, we can always plug the odd man out between Colon and Contreras back in. Regardless of how Ozzie juggles it, I want to see Richard show what he can do with consistent starts.

Congratulations to Jim Thome for passing Mike Schmidt and taking ahold of the 13th spot on the all-time home run list. I was not a fan of Jim Thome before he got to the White Sox and it took me awhile to warm up to him once he got here, but his homer in the 1-0 victory over Minnesota in last year’s one-game playoff earned him my appreciation. Way to go Jim.

Colon faces Joe Saunders tonight at 9:05 CDT on WCIU. Hopefully we can make it 6 out of 8.

Yeah, umm…that hasn’t happened.

And while it’s still early, the going just got a lot tougher for Alexei Ramirez as White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen has benched him in favor Jayson Nix, a guy who hasn’t played shortstop since 2001.

Here’s today’s Wallow in White Sox Misery Link of the Day, courtesy of Joe Cowley of the Sun-Times:

LOTD: Alexei Ramirez sits; Jose Contreras next? — (Sun Times, Joe Cowley)

‘It’s not a rest,” Guillen said. ”I always tell my players, give yourself a chance, get good at-bats. But when you see one at-bat after another after another after another, and no results, no adjustments…

”We talked to Alexei a few times. I don’t mind 0-for-4, I don’t mind struggle, I don’t mind a slump. But how you are in that slump, do something about it. I need some offense, and that’s why I’m going to put Nix out there.”

Guillen was asked if the move was temporary or long-term and couldn’t give an answer. Nix, and Ramirez to an extent, will answer that question in the next week.

”There’s one thing about Nix,” Guillen said. ”I never fall in love with any players until they show me they can play in the big leagues. But he’s got two games, and every at-bat, this kid fights.

”He might not get a hit, but he will fight.”

I still think Alexei Ramirez will turn it around have a good season. I went to two games when the White Sox were in Texas and he had a couple of definite hang-wiff-’ems in which he made great contact but just hit it right at people. I think as much as Ozzie is upset at Alexei, and as much as he wants to shock Alexei into taking a better approach to the plate, he is also using this as a chance to send a message to the entire time: start producing or your job is on the line.

Kudos to Ozzie. The season already feels a bit like it’s slipping away as the 2009 White Sox struggle to find an identity. After reading stories over the past couple weeks wondering if Ozzie has gone soft, it’s nice to see our Ozzie back. My feeling after the final game of the Texas series, which was on ESPN, was that it looked like the Sox just wanted to get out of Dallas and get back home. That’s never a good feeling to have about your team.

Hopefully Ozzie’s Tuesday outburst and his benching of Alexei Ramirez will send a few shock waves through the clubhouse and help us get this team-wide slump turned around.

A few more White Sox links:

• Sox at center of dual storm front — (Sun-Times)
• Ozzie picks Nix’s stick — (Sox Machine)
• No quick fix ahead for the White Sox — (Sun-Times)
• No particular link, just go here for the latest — (South Side Sox)

And now some other interesting links from around the sports blogosphere:

• Ken Burns on ARod — (Wicked Good Sports)
• Brett Favre – America’s Biggest Drama Queen — (Sharapova’s Thigh)
• Favre’s Agent: ‘He Wants to Win a Super Bowl’ — (The World According to MoonDog)
• MSU’s Tom Izzo makes leap from basketball to Broadway tonight — (Freep.com)
• Weird Dirk Nowitzki Story — (Star-Telegram via Deadspin)

Suck it, Cubs fans

Alright, maybe it’s a little early for impetuous smack-talk, but I just watched Alexei Ramirez jack his 5th grand slam with the White Sox last night, and I remembered suddenly that euphoric stroke of what it means to be a White Sox fan. Furthermore, my boy Paul Konerko finally looks like he has his body healthy and capable this season.

Amidst the strange standings referenced above come equally aberrant fantasy stats for many players. I’m here to sort out the current hot starters that you should deal high and the frosty players to reel in low.

Note: I am a firm believer in praising AVG in standard 5×5 leagues. If you can get on base, you have the world of stats open to you. Every stat has a greater potential to react positively if a batter’s average is higher.  Also, all rankings and position eligibilities referenced below are based on Yahoo! rankings.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice and Tips: Players to Reel In

Alexei Ramirez – Yeah, he nailed a grand slam last night, but that only minutely fuels the alarming path Alexei is going to be on for the rest of the season. Ignore the average. He bats .172 in April on average, then the Cuban Missile launches to .288 in May, and doesn’t look back as he soars beyond .300 the next months.

Move over, Robin Ventura. With five career grand slams already as a White Sox player, Alexei is as clutch as they come.

Ramirez came up last year and fooled pitchers with his unique batting, and his technique continues to adapt. This guy’s potential has no limit; in AVG, HRs, RBIs, Runs, and SB, he has enormous potential to be a 5-category helper. 92% of leagues own him. If you can’t pick him up, trade now and be rewarded for the rest of the season. His versatility at positions 2B, SS, and OF make him easy to trade and put on your roster.

Lance Berkman – Berkman’s .167 is not a good average. It’s been 3 weeks already, but remember: it’s only been 3 weeks. Berkman delivers in AVG, HR, RBI, Runs, and, apparently from last year, his first season with double-digit steals at 18, he also is capable of producing in that category as well.

Many think the 33-year old is on the decline, but I say differently. You don’t switch from a career-high 9 SB to twice as many if you body feels “old.” Since 2001, only one year has Berkman missed more than 10 games. 6 out of 8 years he hits for more than 100 RBIs. In eight years, he is averaging 33 HRS a season.

Don’t be fooled by gossip; this guy is healthy, qualified, and April is his worst month in terms of almost every category anyway. Reel him in now, you will be showered with production the rest of the season.

Cole Hamels – He is pitching with an ERA of 10 and a WHIP of 2 right now. He had to readjust his delivery mechanics early on, and received a line drive to the shoulder last Thursday. Now that the grim beginning to 2009 is out of the way, the pitcher who is ranked around 194,036 (or 1166, give or take) looks “injury-prone” to many owners.

This is not the case.

When you increase from ’06’s 132 IP to 183, then to 227 in ‘08, aren’t you supposed to get “hurt” all the time from that increase? And is your ERA (4.08, 3.39, 3.09) WHIP (1.25, 1.12, 1.08) and K’s (145, 177, 196) supposed to improve substantially each year? These first 3 weeks are a fluke. They should not be precursors of any “indications” he is in trouble. I don’t believe he will be at a lower point in fantasy terms again in his career, so seize the opportunity to invest at Hamels’ low point.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice and Tips: Players to Deal Out:

Brandon Phillips – Mayday, Mayday, this liner is sinking faster than a brick. Every sign points to abandoning this ship. His career year came in ’07 with 30 HRs, 94 RBIs, and 32 SB. This was also the only year he didn’t miss 12+ games in his 7-year stint. With a career BA of .259, Phillips significantly lacks the power to have this squat average.

If you OBP fans are looking for a deal, turn away. Phillips has a .307 OBP in his career, and an average of 36 walks each of his 3 starting seasons. He is batting 4th, and this spot will stain his production in Runs. And if you’re batting .165, you’re not getting on base much. And if you don’t get on base with walks OR hits, you can’t steal them!

I do not trust one solid year to an overrated flop. He is owned in over 95% of leagues. Yes, finding 2nd basemen can be difficult, but trading his value now is a good idea before people realize he isn’t worth as much as they’d anticipated.

Matt Holliday – This is self-explanatory; going from the most renowned hitters’ ballpark of the MLB to McAfee Coliseum just demolishes any hopes of Holliday’s hitting numbers being what they were.

Since he is a solid hitter, his average may somehow make it’s way up to .300 by year’s end, but the dude won’t be hitting nearly the number of RBIs or HRs as he did in Coors Field. Expect to see his watered-down performance all year long. Do yourself a favor, and trade him quickly for value, and celebrate getting rid of the “Holliday.”

Orlando Husdon – Trade him immediately. His value will never be higher in his career. Several people want to hop on this gravy train for a hot 3-week start, but his career stats tell otherwise.

He will play about 135 games a year, produce around 11 HRs with 55 RBI and 14 SB a year. Does this look like the Number 15-ranked player in all of baseball? This is the perfect time to deal him out and get the most out of it. Anticipating his streak maintaining its course is like golfing in the dark. That analogy needs no further explanation.

Zack Greinke – The number 3 player in all of fantasy baseball. How much longer can his streak of 38 innings without an earned run keep up? All season hopefully? That would be great. But let’s see: increasing the pitch count from 122 innings to around 210? Looks alarming on paper.

Well it is. Pitchers have a history of injuries resulting from increasing innings over 30 from one year to the next. And Greinke did not just increase 30, but 90. He will throw his arm out at this rate.

Regardless of his amplified chance of going on the DL sometime this season, he is currently ranked number 3. Think of the possibilities. You reaped 38 flawless innings, so now trade for a more consistent, durable pitcher.

Allow me to set the stage.

The NFL Draft was in its second round and the Browns had already made three trades and their first two selections (Alex Mack and Brian Robiskie). As their third pick (#50 overall) approached, the Browns still had an opportunity to get another solid WR in Mohamed Massaquoi.

Simultaneously, on WGN, the Chicago White Sox were taking on the Toronto Blue Jays, looking to avenge a 14-0 home pasting on Friday night. With the game hanging in the balance, Sox up 4-2 in the bottom of the 5th, Alexei Ramirez stepped up to the plate with Corky Miller, Paul Konerko, and Brian Anderson loaded up on the basepaths.

After a ridiculous conversation in which my brother said he was contemplating picking up Corky Miller for his fantasy team (look at those career stats!), our full and undivided attention went to the Cuban Missile at the plate with the bases juiced.

Back in the day, the White Sox were able to lay claim to having one of the greatest bases loaded hitters in the history of baseball when Robin Ventura was manning the hot corner and cranking grand slams seemingly every time he stepped up to the plate with the bases juiced.. Last season, after cranking four grand slams as a rookie, Alexei Ramirez put White Sox fans and the rest of the MLB on notice that the most clutch bases loaded hitter in baseball may again play his home games on the south side of Chicago.

As my brother and I flipped back and forth between the NFL Draft (where the Browns were now on the clock) and Alexei Ramirez’s bases loaded at-bat (where he was trying to battle back from a 1-2 count) I made a bold statement:

“Alexei is jacking one. I’m calling it right now. Grand slam.”

My brother looked at me like I had just said something completely ridiculous and/or ignorant and/or nonsensical – almost as if I had said something like, “I’m thinking of picking up Corky Miller, a catcher a who plays once or twice a week, to be my starting fantasy catcher.” I can, though, somewhat understand my brother’s reluctance to jump on board with my prediction that Alexei would go deep. He entered the game still mired in his April slump, hitting below .200 and still without a home run. I have maintained that Alexei is just a slow starter and will be fine in 2009, but even I wasn’t so sure that my prediction was anything more than just a throwaway comment that would ultimately prove insignificant and erroneous.

As the time wound down on the Browns’ selection at #50, and as Alexei battled back to force a full 3-2 count, the anticipation began to build. Would the Browns pull the trigger on Massaquoi? Would Alexei Ramirez put the game out of reach with his fifth career grand slam? Was it incredibly lame that my brother and I had nothing more significant to do on a Saturday night than to be completely enthralled by a 2nd round draft pick and a virtually meaningless April baseball game?

Over the next 30 seconds, the exciting answers to all three questions were revealed with a resounding “You can put it on the board….YES!”

The Browns pick of Mohamed Massaquoi came through, Alexei Ramirez jacked a game-clinching jonron con bases llenas to left field, and my brother and I began jumping up and down and celebrating as if the Browns and White Sox had simultaneously won a Super Bowl and a World Series title all in that one moment.

And once again, not that I needed it, I was reminded why I love sports.

You never know when something will happen that makes you leap out of your chair and act like a kid on Christmas. For 30 seconds last night, it felt like Christmas in April. Am I exaggerating? In hindsight, yes. But in the moment, it was great. And the value of being a sports fan is the sum of all the exciting moments, in all of their varying degrees, that you are privileged enough to experience. And when they come totally unexpectedly, totally out of the blue, well that’s even better.

Last night’s moment was fleeting. I won’t be telling my kids someday about the night the Browns drafted Mohamed Massaquoi and Alexei Ramirez fulfilled my prediction by hitting an April grand slam, but I will tell them, for instance, about the night I was at Assembly Hall when Calbert Cheaney broke the Big Ten career scoring record. However, despite its relative unimportance, last night provided a legitimate thrill in the midst of an otherwise uneventful Saturday night.

And that is what makes the sports fans’ daily labor or love such a rewarding and worthwhile commitment.

LF Carlos Quentin, whose importance to the White Sox I explained a few days back, was hit by a pitch on his left hand last night. He was forced to leave the game, immediately conjuring up images of last season in which the Sox star missed the final month of the season with a wrist injury.

Seeing Carlos Quentin pulled the from the game and head to the showers prompted the following text message between me and KVB:

KVB: Damn it TCQ just got drilled on the hand and left the game.

JRod: I saw. It’s on MLB Network. He’ll be okay.

KVB: I hope so.

JRod: He’s magic.

KVB: So is Jenks’ blonde goatee.

—–

Click Here for Great Deals on Chicago White Sox Baseball Tickets from StubHub

—–

Luckily, upon waking up today, it appears that Carlos Quentin will be okay. Mark Gonzalez of the Tribune reported late last night in his Carlos Quentin injury update that Quentin suffered a bruise on his left hand and would be re-evaluated today. Quentin reportedly says he’ll be fine. Joe Cowley, on his Twitter feed, said that Quentin seems fine and it appeared no X-Rays would be necessary.

So I guess we can’t completely exhale, but it’s a hell of a lot better than waking up to news that Quentin will be going on the DL. We could survive without him, but it would be difficult. Despite his current 1-11 skid, Quentin already has 7 HRs and is the anchor of the middle of the order. Hopefully the injury is nothing more than a bruise and at most he just takes a few days off.

In other White Sox news, could Alexei Ramirez’s spot in the starting lineup, or even with the big league club, be in jeopardy? Jow Cowley reported last night that Jayson Nix has been playing SS at both AA and AAA during his rehab assignment and will have to either be called up or sent through waivers once he is declared healthy. Cowley speculates that if Alexei continues to struggle, Nix could supplant Cuban Missile at SS while Alexei zips off to Charlotte to get well.

I don’t think anyone doubts that Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox are committed to Alexei Ramirez long-term, nor does anyone doubt that Alexei has the talent to be a top-flight middle infielder in the big leagues. I obviously would not like to see him get sent down, but I’d rather have him get right. Still, I think he deserves a few more weeks to work things out in the bigs. If his April struggles continue into mid-May, I’ll start to worry. Alexei started slow last year too, and is having to make sophomore adjustments. We all know the offense needs Alexei to pick it up, but I am a proponent of patience with the Cuban Missile. Hopefully the White Sox are too.

The main reason is the contrast between the day-to-day nature of fantasy baseball and the one-day-a-week nature of fantasy football. I like the daily action and the volume of games and stats that occur during the MLB season, allowing for sample sizes large enough for the cream to usually rise to the top. There seems to be much more luck involved in winning at fantasy football. While that is exciting in its own way, my preference will always be fantasy baseball.

So, now that we are nearly a full two weeks into the baseball season, it is time for some fantasy baseball analysis. I realize I am not Matthew Berry or Eric Karabell or any of the other tenured fantasy baseball experts out there, but I’m usually at the top of every league I play and I have a pretty good grasp on how to analyze and project players. So while you never want to trust one just one source of fantasy baseball information as the gospel, I feel confident providing actionable advice for you to take into consideration. With that said, now you can be the judge.

One of the regular features we will have here at MSF is Believe It or Not. Basically, this is just a cliched phrase to describe how we will analyze guys who are perhaps playing above or below expectations, and try to ascertain whether their performance should be believed as an actionable trend moving forward. In this first installment I’m going to analyze some guys on my teams that have surprised me positively or negatively so far this season to determine what I should do with them.

(FYI…I play in Yahoo! leagues for the most part. Position eligibility listed below is based on Yahoo’s method for eligibility determination. Most of the leagues I play are not strict 5×5 leagues, but I’ll try keep my analysis to that basis as it is what most people use.)

Marco Scutaro, Toronto Blue Jays (2B, 3B, SS)

This guy has been unreal. He’s hitting .326 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, and leading the AL in runs with 15. Plus, his OPS is a sick 1.113. Let’s just get one thing out of the way that we all know: if you’re expecting this level of production for the balance of the season, you will be disappointed. Scutaro is a career .262 hitter who has never slugged higher than .397 (in 2006 with Oakland, a season in which he had only 365 ABs).

Scutaro is in his mid-30s, so expecting a career year that is light years ahead of his career averages, the pace he is currently on, is unreasonable. Plus, Marco Scutaro has always been a guy who has played some of his best baseball in April. For his career, April is Scutaro’s second-highest month for BA, his highest for OBP, his second highest for SLG, and his second highest for OPS. And right now, Scutaro has been the beneficiary of great hitting behind him from Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, and Adam Lind. I think Toronto’s lineup has the potential to be surprisingly solid in 2009, but Lind is unproven over a full year, Aaron Hill is typically a fast starter in terms of power numbers who slows down, and we all know how often Vernon Wells gets hurt.

So, if you’re trying to decide whether Scutaro can be a solid starting MI in a ten-team league, I say don’t believe it. But as a guy who can fill in at three infield positions and be a solid sub in case of injury, he does have value. I am certainly hanging onto him, keeping him in the starting lineup as long as his bat stays hot, but tempering my expectations moving forward.

The fast start by Marco Scutaro: Don’t believe it

Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox (2B, SS, OF)

For the record, I promise to keep my White Sox bias and man crush on The Cuban Missile (a.k.a. Mr. Grand Slam) out of this analysis.

I don’t think anyone was as controversial before the season as Alexei Ramirez. Some people saw him as a Soriano-like infield stud (from the pre-Cubs days, before he moved to the OF) while some saw Alexei as a one year wonder whose free-swinging ways would lead to a sophomore slump. So far, the naysayers are winning as Alexei has struggled out of the gate with a .143 BA, 0 HRs, 3 RBIs, and 2 runs in 35 April ABs.

But guess what? If you looked at Alexei Ramirez’s stats from last April, you would not be so surprised at his slow start. In 29 April ABs in 2008, Alexei hit .138 with 0 HR, 2 RBIs, and 1 run. In case you need a memory jog, Alexei rebounded to finish at .290 with 21 HR, 77 RBI, 65 R, and 13 SB, finishing second to Evan Longoria for Rookie of the Year.

If I were you, I’d go out and trade for Alexei Ramirez right now, especially considering his multi-position eligibility in Yahoo! leagues.

Many owners may be starting to buy into the sophomore slump hype after his slow start, and may not understand that Alexei is most likely just a slow starter and a streaky hitter. Last year, he was dealing with the pressure of fighting for a consistent lineup spot and playing in a new country to go along with his slow start. But his immense natural talent took over and he played great from May on, building to a crescendo of 12 HRs in August and September.

This year, Alexei knows the Sox are committed to him and he is more comfortable in the U.S. The pressure this year is that pitchers know more about him and will try to exploit his free-swinging ways. If your league takes OBP into account, Alexei does not have quite as much value. But in a standard 5×5 league, I still think he will put up top-10 numbers at 2B or SS, meaning he should be a consistent starter.

You may have to ride out a few ups and downs, as his free-wheeling approach at the plate can make him somewhat streaky; but at the end of the year, the numbers will look good and he will provide much better production than, say, Marco Scutaro.

The slow start of Alexei Ramirez: Don’t believe it

Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies (OF)

This is a guy I targeted in all of my drafts as a tremendous value pick, and he certainly has not disappointed. Along with Jermaine Dye, Raul Ibanez is perhaps the most underappreciated fantasy OF of the last half decade, consistently providing value above his draft slot. And he is maintaining his consistency despite his advancing age. Even in Seattle’s cavernous SafeCo Field, Ibanez would have been a good pick. As a lefty hitting in Philadelphia, it was pretty obvious that his value would improve this season.

Just look at Ibanez’s stats over the past three seasons in Seattle:

• 2006: .289 BA, 33 HR, 123 RBI, 103 R in 626 ABs (career year)
• 2007: .291 BA, 21 HR, 105 RBI, 80 R in 573 ABs
• 2008: .293 BA, 23 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R in 635 ABs

And now look at his start so far in Philly, where he has a more hitter-friendly park and lineup to work with:

• 2009: .361 BA, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R in 36 ABs

Ibanez is obviously not going to hit .361 for the whole season, but there is nothing about the other numbers that are outside the norm. You can pencil Ibanez in for a BA between .290-.300, 25-30 HR, 100+ RBI, and 100+ R (thanks to the ballpark and lineup improvements). That is set-it-and-forget-it type stuff that gives you consistent confidence at a #2 or #3 OF slot. If you are fortunate enough to have Raul Ibanez as a #3 OF, you are probably going to have a pretty good team.

If I were you, I’d throw out a feeler offer to Ibanez’s owner and see how much that owner values him. Ibanez is not a superstar or all that exciting, so some fantasy players do not realize how golden his consistently high production is. If you have him, and got him relatively late in the draft as a #3 OF, pat yourself on the back and do not part with him easily.

The solid start of Raul Ibanez: Believe it

And now, a few quick hits:

John Danks, Chicago White Sox (SP)

He is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 13 Ks in two starts. I love John Danks in real life and in keeper leagues, and I think the White Sox need to do anything necessary to get him signed for the long-term. From a fantasy perspective in 2009, however, I might see what I could get for him. Danks has already walked 7 batters in his two outings and his significant innings jump from 2007 to 2008 (139 to 195) could be a harbinger of arm troubles later this season. If you trade him, you should definitely get something good because Danks is one of the best young lefties in baseball; but if someone is willing to part with a really solid offensive player, I might try to capitalize on Danks’ hot start and hedge my bets against a second half drop-off.

The hot start of John Danks: Believe it to a degree, but be wary

Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees (SP)

This guy has been awful so far this year. And there are reasons to believe that his problems are more severe than just simply having a slow start and that his best days could be behind him. However, if you need pitching and he is on the waiver wire, think about this: for his career, Wang’s April ERA is a full run higher than his next highest month, which just so happens to be May. So obviously it takes Wang a few months to get the feel for his sinker, but he has been very solid throughout his career from June-September, with his worst month being August (3.81 career ERA, 1.39 career WHIP). Chien-Ming Wang is not a guy I would count on as a #1-#3 starter, but he can be a solid back-of-your-rotation kind of guy if you can stash him away until June.

The slooooow start of Chien-Ming Wang: Don’t believe it completely, but still be wary

Update: And by wary I mean horrifically terrified. Less than five hours after posting this, Chien-Ming Wang dropped a turd of a performance in his first start at the new Yankee Stadium. He gave up 8 earned runs to the lowly Cleveland Indians and couldn’t even get out of the 2nd inning. Perhaps his struggles this year are much more than just a slow start. He may be injured and/or completely messed up mentally and mechanically. If you are going to hang onto Wang, sit him at least until he strings a couple of solid starts together.

(Note: For the record, this is why I hate starting pitchers and always try to build my teams around a solid offense and a couple of proven, consistent closers (i.e. Joakim Soria, who I love and get every year). Starting pitchers can be very hard to project from year to year, or even month to month. You have to either get lucky with a healthy and effective starting staff throughout the year, or have a solid enough offense and bullpen to ride out the volatility of starters.)

And one final player for today:

Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox (OF)

Jason Bay is off to a great start, hitting .344 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 8 R, and most importantly only 6 Ks against 11 BBs. Keep in mind, Bay’s career K:BB ratio is 740:408. While Bay’s career numbers suggest that he can’t possibly keep up his nearly 2:1 BB:K ratio, I do think that his improved numbers after the trade to Boston last year foreshadow a great overall season from Bay this year. As a right-handed hitter in a park tailor-made for right-handed power hitters, the move to Boston is the best thing that ever could have happened to Jason Bay. After going at least 30-100-100-10 for two straight seasons in Pittsburgh, Bay was thought of among the elite OFs in the game. He struggled in 2007, but the rebounded last year. I think 2007 was the anomaly and that we’ll see another 30-100-100+ season from Bay in 2009. Keep him if you’ve got him and throw out a feeler trade if you don’t.

The fast start of Jason Bay: Believe it wholeheartedly

That’s it for today. Best of luck to everyone in head-to-head leagues this weekend. Hopefully your guys come through with solid performances to finish the week off strongly. Feel free to throw any questions in comment section and I’ll answer. I’m all about offering my perspective if it can help it any way.

As you can see in the list broken down below, White Sox 2009 1st Round draft pick Gordon Beckham, a shortstop, came in at #20. Baseball America lists Beckham’s ETA as 2009, which makes sense considering that he is a 22-year old former college player. However, with Alexei Ramirez sliding over to the shortstop for the White Sox this year I wonder where they are expecting Beckham to play.

With 2B still up in the air between Chris Getz and Brett Lillibridge, two solid prospects but who are not on Beckham’s level, I wonder if we could see Alexei slide right back over to 2B to make room for Gordon Beckham this season. I guess we can wait and see how Beckham does the Spring, and how Getz and Lillibridge do, before we promote him to the big league club.

For you other White Sox junkies like me, here are the other White Sox prospects to make the Top 100:

• #61 – Dayan Viciedo, 3B/OF, Age 20, ETA 2009
• #63 – Aaron Poreda, LHP, Age 22, ETA 2009
• #99 – Tyler Flowers, C, Age 23, ETA 2010

For those of you wanting to know the Twins players who made the cut, I’m sure Tyler will break it down for you in a future post (hint, hint Tyler).

And here is the complete list of Baseball America’s Top 20 Prospects in baseball:

*-Age is how old they will be on Opening Day, 2009

Here are the links to the rest of the Baseball America List:

• Baseball America Top 100 Prospect List: 21-40
• Baseball America Top 100 Prospect List: 41-60
• Baseball America Top 100 Prospect List: 61-80
• Baseball America Top 100 Prospect List: 81-100

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And now some other links for you on this bright, fine Tuesday afternoon:

Nate Robinson has a man crush on Will Ferrell — (Total Pro Sports)

Boom Goes the Dynamite makes it all the way to the Oscars — (Awful Announcing)

Joba Chamberlain is a pimp — (Busted Coverage)

The Week that was in College Basketball — (Sparty and Friends)

Devin Harris incredible buzzer-beater — (Black Sports Online)

Tennessee Fans should pay attention to change in presidents — (Mr. SEC)

But from what I am reading, we should all probably get very familiar with the name Dayan Viciedo; and if he is as good as advertised, the entire baseball world may be familiar with him soon.

The 19-year old Dayan Viciedo, a third baseman, is the latest Cuban defector to join the Chicago White Sox after signing a 4-year, $10 million deal this offseason. Jose Contreras, who came over earlier this decade from the New York Yankees, helped the White Sox win the 2005 World Series and has become a fixture in the White Sox rotation. Alexei Ramirez, dubbed “The Cuban Missile” by Ozzie Guillen during Spring Training last year, finished as the runner-up for the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2008.

Together, they form the trio of White Sox that I am now going to refer to as the Cuban Trifectors, and their play in 2009 will go a long way towards deciding whether or not the White Sox can repeat as AL Central champions.

So who is this Dayan Viciedo that, according to the Chicago Tribune, led one AL scout to say that “he has more hitting ability than Alexei”?

Dayan Viciedo, as mentioned, is a native Cuban who entered the National Series of Cuba at the ripe old age of 15. He only hit .243 that first season, but found his footing as a 16-year old and hit .337 with 14 home runs. And anyone who says, “well he was only playing in Cuba” obviously does not know much about international baseball.

Cuba always fielded a very competitive baseball team in the Olympics, and finished as the runner-up to Japan in the 2006 World Baseball Classic. Cuba is very serious about their baseball, and that same Chicago Tribune article cited earlier quotes an AL scout as saying “You don’t see a 16-year-old play on a national team [as he did].” Dayan Viciedo actually made the provisional 60-man roster for the World Baseball Classic but did not make the final cut.

Viciedo’s greatest strength appears to be significant raw power. I have read in more than one place that Viciedo projects to be a 35-40 home run guy. His .337 average as a 16-year old also shows that he is not a McGwire-esque one trick pony either. He will obviously have to prove, however, that he can make adjustments at the Major League level and provide consistent production against higher quality pitching.

The primary weakness that has been cited is Viciedo’s weight. He apparently ballooned up to 260 pounds at one point after reaching the U.S. following his defection. The White Sox instructed him to report to camp at 230 pounds, and he had already trimmed his weight to 246 pounds by the time of his tryout in November, according to the Chicago Tribune.

And Ozzie Guillen certainly seems encouraged, as this report at SunTimes.com from January 30, 2009 shows:

Guillen has gotten promising reports from bench coach Joey Cora regarding power-hitting third baseman Dayan Viciedo, 19, who defected from Cuba last year. There had been concerns that Viciedo’s weight would hurt his chances in the majors.

”I got great news about the former fat guy,” Guillen said with a laugh. ”Now he’s a big man. He’s a strong, big kid. When I saw him the first time, he was overweight, there’s no doubt.

”I talked to Joey Cora, and this kid is going to come to spring training having the big-league club on his mind, and that’s good. He says he wants to be on the big-league club. He is going to have all of the opportunities to make the ballclub.”

Viciedo will be competing with Josh Fields at 3B this spring. Joe Crede, the longtime fixture at the hot corner for the White Sox, will probably be in San Francisco or Minnesota. Juan Uribe will not be with team either. And while there is understandable excitement about Dayan Viciedo’s potential, it is important to point out that while Josh Fields struggled last year, this is still a guy who hit 23 home runs in only 373 ABs in 2007. He only had 20 ABs at the Major League level last year, but at 27 should be ready to hit his stride.

What will be interesting to see is whether the White Sox keep Viciedo at the big league level if he does not unseat Josh Fields as the starter, but shows enough pop in his bat to be a DH fill-in for Jim Thome and power bat off the bench. I would think that the White Sox want Viciedo playing every day, so if he is not starting on the big league club they will probably have him in AAA.

One thing is for sure: whether or not Viciedo breaks camp on the South Side, he could still play an integral role in the White Sox quest to defend their AL Central title. Alexei Ramirez played sparingly through the first few months of 2008, but came on strong during the final few months to become one of the offensive leaders for the White Sox. We will see how quickly Viciedo can adjust during Spring Training; but regardless, his name will be on all Sox fans minds all season, especially if Fields struggles or if the White Sox offense as a whole sputters like it did at the start of last season.

Either way, Dayan Viciedo is another solid building block for the future that Ken Williams has assembled. With respect to the immediate future, the other two members of the Cuban Trifectors are two of the most important keys for the White Sox success in 2009.

Jose Contreras is still recovering from the ruptured Achilles that ended his 2008 season. Most projections have him returning to the rotations around the All-Star break, and the early reports from Glendale are glowing:

Guillen presented rave reviews for Camelback Ranch, comments echoed by White Sox pitchers and catchers. He called Jose Contreras “the biggest surprise of camp,” even with just one day elapsed, as the right-hander showed up 30 pounds lighter than the end of the 2008 season and well on his way to coming back early from a ruptured left Achilles tendon suffered last August.

With the 4th and 5th slots in the rotation still up in the air, the healthy and effective return of Contreras could be a tremendous mid-season lift for the White Sox. Everyone hopes that Bartolo Colon and either Aaron Poreda or Clayton Richard can solidify the back end of the rotation, but there is no replacement for the big game experience that Jose Contreras possesses. He was up and down at times last season, but I firmly believe that the White Sox are a better team with him taking the bump every fifth day.

The other Cuban Trifector, Alexei Ramirez, is being counted upon heavily to not only deal with adjustments that AL pitchers will most likely throw his way during his second year in the big leagues, but also with playing a new position. Alexei is sliding over to SS from 2B to make way for Chris Getz (or perhaps Brett Lillibridge). Moving over to SS should not be too much of an adjustment for Alexei, as he played mostly shortstop and center field in Cuba. The move could certainly boost the White Sox offense, assuming that whoever is playing 2B can replace the modest production of Juan Uribe.

With inexperienced players like Jerry Owens, Getz, and Fields projected to be starters in 2009, and aging veterans like AJ Pierzynski, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye trying to prove that they can still produce at above-average levels, a lot of pressure will be on Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Quentin to provide consistent offensive production. Alexei, who will be 27 on opening day, was very consistent as a player in Cuba and is at the age where most players enter their prime years. For the White Sox to succeed in 2009, Alexei needs to build upon his solid rookie year and be the player throughout 2009 that he was during the final few months in 2008.

I am a huge proponent of Ken Williams’ willingness to bring in Cuban players, and the White Sox are in a unique situation to help Cuban players succeed. When Alexei joined the team last year, he had the veteran Contreras to lean on and fellow Latino Ozzie Guillen as his manager. Alexei was also 26, so he had seven years of maturity on the young Dayan Viciedo. But Viciedo will have both Contreras and Ramirez to help guide him, and a manager in Ozzie Guillen who has proven his willingness to give young players a chance.

Jose Contreras and Alexei Ramirez are both proven commodities who have experienced great success already at the Major League level. Dayan Viciedo is a raw 19-year old who possesses immense talent but still needs to prove that he has the skills and mental makeup to compete and produce consistently at the Major League level. Together, the Cuban Trifectors form a huge piece of the 2009 puzzle that the White Sox and their fans are hoping can result in another AL Central title and a return trip to the playoffs.

No really…the Cubs actually won something.

Chicago Cubs catcher Geovanny Soto was named NL Rookie of the Year earlier today, capturing 31 out of 32 possible first place votes. Apparently either Dusty Baker or Joe Morgan has a vote, because one vote inexplicably went to Reds first baseman Joey Votto. It wasn’t even really a race in the NL this year — Geovanny Soto had a very strong first season and deserved to be Rookie of the Year.

In the American League, Chicago White Sox second baseman Alexei Ramirez finished second to Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria, who captured all 28 of the first place votes.

(When asked for comment as to why there are 32 first place votes in the NL, but only 28 in the AL, Bud Selig picked his nose and wiped the boogers underneath his desk. He then muttered something defensive, shouted “Beam me to paradise”, and was then transported into his dream world — where he is a backup dancer for the Talking Heads.)

Alexei Ramirez received 18 second place votes to finish ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury for second in the AL. Ozzie Guillen could not be reached for comment, but wants to know who Jay Mariotti voted for.

Soto’s assent to Rookie of the Year was not a surprise based on his strong start to the season and relatively consistent play throughout. Plus, he’s a Chicago Cub so even if he didn’t deserve the accolade he would have gotten it anyway. The case of Alexei Ramirez, however, is much different.

The Cuban Missile was hitting an awful .114 on May 7th. But he came on strong in the second half of the season and punctuated his stellar play with a grand slam to win the September 29th makeup game against the Detroit Tigers, which forced a one-game playoff against the Twins. For the season, Ramirez set a major league record to rookies by hitting four grand slams.

The outlook for both players appears promising. Geovanny Soto will resume his role as the Cubs’ catcher next season and be fawned over by fans across the globe regardless of how well his team does. He has, however, no chance of ever catching in a World Series unless he is traded. Alexei Ramirez appears poised to take over the shortstop position for the White Sox next season and is a prominent building block for Ken Williams as he reshapes the White Sox again roster for next year and beyond.

Congratulations to Geovanny Soto for winning, and to Alexei Ramirez for storming back in the 2nd half to finish #2. The only number that really matters though, is this: 1.

That’s how many more playoff games the White Sox won than the Cubs this year.

It’s how many World Series titles the White Sox have this century.

And it’s the number of future presidents who love the White Sox and hate the Cubs.

Thank you for reading this objective analysis of the Rookie of the Year voting. Geovanny, I swear it’s nothing personal. You just play for a crappy franchise.

[tags]chicago cubs, chicago white sox, mlb, rookie of the year[/tags]