A sports blog by and for Midwest Sports Fans
While Mario Manningham’s incredible 38-yard sideline catch was the best picture Super Bowl 46, this image of Ahmad Bradshaw’s 6-yard Super Bowl winning TD merits a close second place.
This should-I-score-or-should-I-squat pose at the 1-yard line is a Super Bowl classic.
I can’t believe it’s already week 13 of the football season. I felt like just a few days ago we wondering if the lockout would end in time for the season. It’s crunch time now for fantasy teams as we fast approach the playoffs for the fantasy league.
Let’s take a look at the crucial injuries for this week’s games.
Hey fantasy fanatics! Who’s ready for week 11? How are your teams shapin’ up? Let’s take a look at the important injuries for Week 11 and who we all need to keep an eye on heading into Sunday.
Everyone loves to draft a guy that he thinks is a sleeper. Why? Because it’s our way of proving to everyone else that, “Yes, I know more than you.” Beyond that, it’s simply quite fun to draft a guy that surprises everybody else.
Like I said before, it’s not that fun to draft Ichiro. You know exactly what you’re getting. (Or at least you used to know, before this season.) On the flip side, thinking about Jason Heyward’s upside gives us all visions of glory.
But when it comes to drafting running backs for your fantasy football team this year, save the “sleepers” for other positions.
Last week I opened up the Start em, Sit em post by telling you about how was I was off to a strong 5-2 start in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy League*. With the stakes being two tickets to the Super Bowl, you can imagine how much focus I’ve put on doing well in this league.
This week, I must regretfully inform you that I lost in Week 8, falling to 5-3 with a 14 point loss. The worst part? A win was sitting on my bench.
I am watching Neftali Feliz close out the Yankees in Game 3 as I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start em, Sit em post. Right now, this series is through three game, the Rangers have absolutely dominated all but one inning, yet the Yankees find themselves down just a game.
If AJ Burnett can somehow pitch well in Game 4 and the Yankees win, they will find themselves at a very fortuitous 2-2…but 2-2 nonetheless.
Keep this in mind with your fantasy teams.
Now that we are five weeks into the season, I think it’s time to start reassessing the conventional wisdom.
Regular readers know that I always trust established track records over small sample sizes, and I try best never to overreact, but it is important to remember that each NFL season is its own unique being. Thus, while I’m not ready to jump off the Matt Schaub bandwagon yet, I think it’s okay to not consider him a must start anymore. The same is true for DeAngelo Williams, who has seen the awful Carolina offense torpedo his value.
Week 6 is also important because every is back from suspension. We got to see the impact of Brian Cushing (minimal) and Santanio Holmes (not huge, but flashes of potential), and this week we get to see Ben Roethlisberger back under center for Pittsburgh. And as a Mike Wallace owner, let me just exalt…Halalujah!
Does Big Ben show up in this week’s start/sit? Let’s take a quick look back at last week’s hits and misses, then find out.
If the New York Giants are going to spoil the regular season christening of Dallas’ new billion-dollar stadium, then Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw must bring their A-game.
Both teams won last week’s season opener, but the Cowboys were gashed by Tampa Bay on the ground for 174 yards in the 34-21 victory. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams picked up 97 yards on only 13 carries while Derrick Ward gained another 62 yards on 12 attempts. Each back found the end zone once.
If New York gets that kind of productivity, and the defense plays as it did against Washington, we could see an upset in Big D.
The G-Men have history against them, however. Dallas has won four of the last five meetings, and three of the last four in Dallas.
Here is all of the viewing information for this weekend’s game:
New York Giants (1-0) at Dallas Cowboys (1-0)
In last December’s game at Texas Stadium, Giants quarterback Eli Manning was sacked eight times, picked off twice, and did not throw a touchdown pass in the 20-8 Dallas victory. This is another reason why New York running game is so vital. Jacobs ran for 117 yards in last season’s Giants victory in New York, but the big bruiser missed the blowout loss in Dallas.
If the Giants are unable to get anything going on the ground, DeMarcus Ware and Co. will be able to pin their ears back and head right for Manning. Surprisingly, Dallas was unable to register a sack last week in Tampa after Ware led the NFL with 20 sacks a season ago. Tampa quarterback Byron Leftwich completed 61 percent of his passes and threw for 276 yards as the Buccaneers totaled 450 yards of offense.
For Dallas, the recipe for success is eerily similar.
The Cowboys have their own 1-2 punch in the backfield. Establishing Marion Barber and Felix Jones on the ground will open things up for Tony Romo. Dallas rushed for 118 yards against the Bucs, led by Barber, who had 79 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.
Romo enjoyed a superb opener, throwing for 353 yards and three touchdowns, including seven passes to Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams for a combined 221 yards. It’s clear that the Cowboys don’t miss Terrell Owens. Romo’s efforts this past Sunday made up for the lackluster defensive performance in the Sunshine State.
While Dallas’ defense was underwhelming in victory, New York’s unit overwhelmed Jason Campbell and the Redskins. They held the Redskins to 272 yards – 85 rushing – and forced two turnovers with three sacks, including 1 1/2 by NFC defensive player of the week Justin Tuck. Defensive end Osi Umenyiora, back after missing last year with a knee injury added a sack and a forced fumble of Campbell. He then returned the fumble 37 yards for a score in the 23-17 win.
Manning was not spectacular against Washington, but was efficient, going 20 of 29 for 256 yards with one touchdown and one interception, completing passes to seven receivers.
That kind of efficiency begins with pass protection and a solid running game. Both teams have basically the same strengths. It’s just a matter of which squad can establish the ground game early, pressure the quarterback, and create a turnover – something Dallas has struggled to do the last few years.
The clubs have already begun the war of words, with Jacobs and Ware both saying they “hate” the other team. It would seem the passion on the field in this storied NFC East rivalry has finally caught up to the passion in the stands.
The passionate ones in the seats could be the difference in this game, if Dallas can feed off its crowd in the home opener. The Giants will do all they can to silence the expected sell-out crowd. That could be easier to do with their 260-pound tailback on the field.
With Jacobs in the lineup, this is a completely different Giants team, and New York just might be leaving Big D with a big W.
**********
* – Eli Manning – Dallas photo credit: New York Daily News
This post is from 2009!
Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports for our Fantasy Football Week 2 Start Em, Sit Em post for 2010.
——————–
I am nothing if not accountable, and I come to you a humbled man this week. I let you and myself down with start ‘em, sit ‘em advice that left much to be desired in Week 1.
Here is the Week 1 start ‘em, sit ‘em column if you’d like to review, but I’ll lay out the hits and misses right here for you.
So, not a great start.
In fact, the results of my Week 1 start ‘em, sit ‘em lineup advice reminds me a little bit of the Carolina Panthers…with me playing the role of Jake Delhomme: high hopes, big expectations…and then a depressing thud as interceptions get fired all over the field.
But, in my defense, in the “others” category for start ‘em I did nail all of the three QBs listed — Hasselbeck, Flacco, and Shaun Hill, plus I recommended Julius Jones. And I told you to sit Steve Slaton! That should count for something right?
Umm…no.
We’re all about results here. Like fantasy football, it’s about touchdowns (or LOTS of yards) and I did not get into the endzone enough last week with my primary start ‘em, sit ‘em recommendations at each position. But what we love about sports is that there is always next week…so I am looking forward to Week 2.
I’m here to rebound, both for you and for myself, to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. And no, I will not give into the temptation to pick obvious ones (start Adrian Peterson against Detroit!) just to pad my stats.
Let’s get right to it.
Start ‘Em: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (vs Pittsburgh Steelers)
What, am I crazy? Start the guy who had 4 picks on national TV last week against the defending champs and their suffocating defense this week?
I say yes, and there is one primary reason why: no Troy Polamalu.
The lynchpin of the Steelers’ secondary is out with a sprained MCL, which will make Pittsburgh’s D more susceptible to the pass and less dangerous overall. Granted, the Bears’ WR corps leaves a lot to be desired, but I think the determination of Jay Cutler will overcome that.
Cutler may be a bit of a whiny douche, but he’s a very talented and prideful player. He also did not complete a pass to RB Matt Forte in Week 1, and only a single one to TE Greg Olsen, which I have to think will change after taking a look at the film.
The Bears are at home and will do everything to avoid going 0-2. I’m not sold on Cutler as a consistent fantasy starter throughout the season, but I do like him this week despite the matchup.
Others I like: Jason Campbell, Washington (vs St. Louis); Trent Edwards, Buffalo (vs Tampa Bay)
Sit ‘Em: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (@ Miami Dolphins)
Let me guess what you are probably thinking right now: this idiot is recommending Jay Cutler as a start against Pittsburgh and Peyton Manning as a guy you should sit? Is he insane?
Well, perhaps.
But I don’t think so in this particular case for this particular week.
Courtesy of Stats Inc. (via Yahoo Sports), Peyton Manning has thrown for 16 TDs and 18 INTs lifetime against the Dolphins. Now, clearly that stat line spans a decade and many different coaches and players for the Dolphins. But considering that Manning will be going into a hornet’s nest (on the road in Miami, home opener for Dolphins, Monday night, team coming off of a bad loss and looking for redemption, etc.) and will not have Anthony Gonzalez, I’m not all that optimistic about his chances.
The Colts offense is becoming a little worrisome. They could not establish a consistent ground attack in Week 1 against Jacksonville, which they need for Manning’s play-action to be effective. Miami, despite its struggles to contain Matt Ryan, did an effective job of limiting the Falcons’ powerful ground attack last Sunday (3.0 yards per carry for Michael Turner).
I think an emotional Dolphins’ D bottles up Manning and the Colts offense, at least enough that he is limited to one TD pass and harassed into a turnover or two. If you have a decent backup for Manning, this might be a good week to use him.
Others I don’t like: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati (@ Green Bay)
Start ‘Em: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants (@ Dallas Cowboys)
I liked Ahmad Bradshaw before the season started because he was stepping into a big void of opportunity left by the departure of Derrick Ward. After one game the returns are pretty solid, and I think his matchup on Sunday night against the Cowboys is a good one.
First off, Bradshaw got 12 carries against the Redskins last week, so we can see that some touches will be there. He also carried for 60 yards, a 5.0 yard average, against a pretty good run defense. Plus, he added 3 receptions, to get his total touches up to 15. All in all, a solid first week effort for Bradshaw against a good defense.
With the injury to Danny Ware, the Giants have announced that Bradshaw will be handling kickoff return duties this week, which should net him a few more touches and some extra all-purpose yards against a Cowboys’ special teams unit that was been a pretty significant question mark this offseason.
Most importantly, Bradshaw and the Giants are going up against a defense that is pretty adept at rushing the passer but not quite so adept at stopping the run. Last week, despite being behind most of the game and losing, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers torched the Cowboys on the ground over 160 yards and a pretty hefty per carry average. Cadillac Williams ran for 97 yards on 13 carries and scored a TD, while Derrick Ward ran for 62 yards on 12 carries and also scored.
The Jacobs-Bradshaw combo is just as good and they have a better O-Line than Tampa. I actually like the Cowboys to win this game, but I think the Giants will be able to get some work done on the ground. We certainly know that they will be committed to doing so.
You already know you’re starting Brandon Jacobs, but I wouldn’t hesitate to throw Bradshaw in there as a flex. This a good matchup for him.
Others I like: Thomas Jones, New York Jets (vs New England); Mike Bell, New Orleans (@ Philadelphia…but check on Pierre Thomas throughout the week.)
Sit ‘Em: Julius Jones, Seattle (@ San Francisco)
Yes, Julius Jones had a good game last week, but there are a few things you need to remember:
If Seattle is going to win this game, they are going to have to do it through the air. I think San Francisco has a chance to have a pretty stout run defense this year, and they gave a glimpse of it last week by bottling up Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells in Arizona. Granted, Tim Hightower had 12 receptions out of the backfield against them, but Jones has never been a guy to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield.
Enjoy it when Julius plays teams like the Rams; otherwise, remember who he is and consider his track record. The 49ers are an up-and-coming team that will be fired up for their home opener. I think Matt Hasselbeck will have to win this one with his arm if the Seahawks are to come into San Fran and get a W.
Others I don’t like: Cedric Benson, Cincinnati (@ Green Bay); Steve Slaton, Houston (@ Tennessee); Kevin Smith, Detroit (@ Minnesota)
Start ‘Em: Terrell Owens, Buffalo (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
He only had two catches on three targets Monday night, and he’s coming off a toe injury that sidelined him most of the preseason. If you’re a little bit skittish about T.O. right now, you’re well within your right to be so.
But I wouldn’t be skittish about starting him this week against Tampa Bay. And the truth is, you probably spent a high draft pick on T.O. so you may not have any other choice but to start him. (Don’t worry, I’m not taking the easy way out in the WR Sit ‘Em to balance out recommending T.O.)
Trent Edwards and the Bills proved, somewhat surprisingly, that they can move the ball on offense with their performance against the Patriots. And remember that Bill Belichick’s defensive strategy is usually to try to take away the opposing team’s #1 threat. The Patriots did that by doubling and bottling up T.O.
Buffalo plays Tampa Bay last week, which got absolutely shredded by Tony Romo and his trio of WRs last week. I don’t think Buffalo will have that much success against the Bucs, but they’ll get some work done through the air.
And after only being targeted three times in Week 1, you know T.O. will be both motivated and vocal about the need to get him the rock.
His huge games will be fewer and further between this season, but I think this is one of them.
Others I like: Desean Jackson, Philadelphia (vs New Orleans); Brandon Marshall, Denver (vs Cleveland); Percy Harvin, Minnesota (@ Deroit);
Sit ‘Em: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (vs Oakland)
As with T.O., you probably have to start Dwayne Bowe because of where you drafted him. If you have no other options, keep Bowe in the lineup because you have to and he will get his fair share of targets.
But if you’re stacked at WR, this could be a week when Bowe hits your bench as he will be matched up with Nnamdi Asomugha, against whom Bowe has yet to catch a TD pass in his career. Last year, Bowe had 8 catches for 117 yards in two games against Oakland. As a rookie, he had 7 catches for 147 yards.
The weakness of the Oakland defense is their ability to stop the run, although they were more effective than expected in Week 1 against San Diego. And while Philip Rivers completed 24 passes for 252 yards on Monday night, look a little deeper: only 11 of the completions were to WRs, the rest went to RBs and TEs.
There is also flux at the QB position in Kansas City, as well as an entire team getting used to a new offensive system. Bowe had 4 catches and a TD last week with Brodie Croyle at QB, but only tallied 40 yards. Who will be starting this week? Matt Cassel? Croyle?
There are enough question marks surrounding Bowe this week that I’d be wary. He may still garner 5-6 fantasy points because he could accumulate a few catches and some yards, but don’t expect big numbers.
Others I don’t like: Laveraneus Coles, Cincinnati (@ Green Bay); Donald Driver, Green Bay (vs Cincinnati);
Start ‘Em: Robert Royal, Cleveland Browns (@ Denver)
If you watched the Browns-Vikings game on Sunday, you noticed a few things:
In fact, Quinn targeted Royal nine times on Sunday, resulting in four catches, 60 yards, a TD for Royal. With the Browns’ WR corps likely to continue to struggle, and with Quinn’s well-known deficiencies throwing the ball deep down the field, I think Quinn will again be looking at Royal early and often.
Denver did do a nice job of shutting down the Cincinnati tight ends last week, but the Bengals rarely involve their TE anyway so I don’t read too much into that.
The targets for Royal are not going to stop. If you are unsettled at tight end, he could be a solid play through at least the first few weeks of the season, until Brady Quinn can get more comfortable throwing the ball down the field to Braylon and the Browns’ other WRs.
Others I like: Brent Celek, Philadelphia (vs New Orleans); Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (@ Buffalo); Kevin Boss, New York Giants (@ Dallas)
Sit ‘Em: Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans (@ Philadelphia)
Yes, Shockey caught 2 TD passes last week and is a part of the best offense in the league, so it’s hard to sit him. But his entire value from last week is wrapped up in those TD catches (he had only 4 catches for 31 yards), which are hard to predict and expect from week to week.
Add to that the fact that the Saints are playing a much better defense this week in Philadelphia, and one that is very familiar with Shockey from his days in New York, and I think we could see a reversion to the no-TD Shockey that we became accustomed to during his first season with New Orleans.
And what do you trust more: a 16-game schedule during which he caught no TDs, or one game against a team that’s lost 18 in a row in which he caught two?
I thought so.
With Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem all more dynamic downfield playmakers than Shockey, he is the fifth option when Drew Brees drops back to pass. Shockey fattened up against the porous Lions, but this week the law of averages pulls his fantasy numbers back to what we’ve come to expect from him.
Others I don’t like: Owen Daniels, Houston (@ Tennessee); Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler, Denver (vs Cleveland)
Start ‘Em: Green Bay Packers D/ST (vs Cincinnati)
How can you not like the Packers’ D right now? They stifled the Bears in Week 1 and goaded Jay Cutler into 4 interceptions. They also have players like Charles Woodson and Al Harris who are always threats to take one to the house.
The real key, however, is the Packers’ improvement in the front 7 and their ability to stop the run. In Week 1, the Pack held Bears phenom Matt Forte to 55 yards rushing and nada out of the backfield as a receiver.
Cincinnati comes into Green Bay with a far less accomplished and dynamic running back in Cedric Benson. They also have a passing game that struggled against Denver in Week 1 and still looks as if it needs time to get in sync with Carson Palmer back under center and no T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the outside.
I think Chad Ochocinco will get his on Sunday, but that’s about it. Green Bay is one of the emerging contenders in the NFC and they’ll play like it at home against the Bengals.
Others I like: New England Patriots (@ New York Jets); Washington Redskins (vs St. Louis)
Sit ‘Em: Philadelphia Eagles D/ST (vs New Orleans)
This one is all about the matchup.
Philadelphia has a very good defense, forced lots of turnovers last week against Carolina, and will be a solid start most weeks. This week, however, they face the Saints’ juggernaut. And until the Saints and Drew Brees provide a reason to doubt them, I’m sitting any defense that plays against them.
With Troy Polamalu out for Pittsburgh right now, there is no unit in the NFL that I trust more than the Saints’ offense. Sorry Philly.
Others I don’t like: New York Jets (vs New England); Baltimore Ravens (@ San Diego)
It’s early in the week, so obviously injuries could wreak havoc on these predictions, but I’ll update this post if anything pertinent happens. As always, feel free to submit any lineup questions you may have in the comment section and I’ll answer them as soon as I’m able.
**********
* – Jay Cutler photo credit: Bleacher Report
* – Jeremy Shockey photo credit: Ted Jackson / The Times-Picayune via Nola.com
Before I left for vacation last week I attempted to identify three players that are consistently being picked in the top 10 of fantasy football drafts who could end up falling short of expectations. The idea, of course, is that each year there are highly ranked players who falter and end up not providing first round value. If we can somehow — based on historical trends and empirical evidence — figure out who these players will be before the draft, it is obviously a huge bonus. Having underperforming first round picks can kill owners, because while you cannot win fantasy championships with your first round pick, you can certainly put yourself on a destructive path towards losing if you grab a clunker that early.
The flip side, of course, is that there have to be players who are undervalued on draft day but who take a surprising a leap in production. Last year, for instance, I had the foresight (serendipity) to select Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton in the second half of the draft. Considering that I coupled them with solid first and second picks (Drew Brees, Larry Fitzgerald) is anyone surprised that I won that league?
Of course not.
But while it’s easy to pat ourselves on the back after the fact when we identify these fortuitous diamonds in the rough, it’s much more difficult to step out on a limb and try to identify them before the draft. Yet, that it exactly what I am going to try to do today.
The format will be a little different from the bust column, where I rigidly stuck with three guys in most pre-draft top 10 lists who I think will not provide first round value. Today, I am going to try and identify guys slotted for the middle to later rounds who I think will significantly overperform their current values. This does not necessarily mean I think these guys are all first round picks by any means, just that you would be wise to start thinking about them a round or two before you might otherwise consider them; that way, you can unearth the diamond in the rough that provides great value and helps you on your way to the playoffs.
Now, keep this in mind: guys who are rated lower in pre-draft rankings typically have questions surrounding them. Perhaps they are a rookie or young player with no track record. Maybe their role is not yet defined. Perhaps they are currently in a timeshare so their touches appear limited. I could go on and on. They key to remember is that these players, like all players, carry risk. So you don’t want to reach for a player in the 3rd round who is a consensus 9th round guy. But you may want to think about him in the 6th or 7th round if you are sufficiently convinced that the pre-draft risk assessment is incorrect and that the potential reward is worth it. Make sense?
Either way, let’s get going. Enough bloviating by me.
[Note: I'm using Yahoo!'s O-Rank pre-draft rankings. Obviously there will be differences depending on which rankings you use, but typically players are slotted and value similarly across all pre-draft rankings with only subtle differences.]
First of all, I will direct you to the column I did yesterday morning detailing my first fantasy football draft of the season. I discussed some potential sleepers in that article, so I won’t rehash those guys there. Among the players discussed: Felix Jones, Vernon Davis, LeSean McCoy, Torry Holt, Anthony Gonzalez, Shaun Hill, Chris Henry, Steve Smith (NYG), the Jets Defense, and even Tom Brady and Donovan McNabb for good measure. So you can start there.
QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills (O-Rank: 137, Position Rank: 20)
In case you didn’t hear, Terrell Owens is now a Buffalo Bill. And while T.O. is not the same explosive player that he once was, he still averaged 15.2 yards per catch and caught 10 touchdowns last year. Plus, as we all know, T.O. always seems to produce great seasons during his first full year with a team. Thus, his quarterbacks tend to have very good seasons in their first year with him.
The evidence:
Trent Edwards enters his third NFL season having shown a solid jump in efficiency from year one to year two (70.4 rating to 85.4). He is also the unquestioned starter and has had a great start to the preseason. While he is not getting the same Terrell Owens that Jeff Garcia or Donovan McNabb had, and probably not even the same T.O. that Tony Romo had, Edwards can still expect to see the addition of T.O. have a tremendously positive impact on opening up the field for the passing game. Plus, T.O. is usually on good behavior in the first season.
And here’s the thing: Edwards already had a solid trio of receivers without T.O. Lee Evans is a consistent contributor and a very good deep threat. Roscoe Parrish, though he lacks focus sometimes, is a game-breaker that the Bills appear more focused on getting the ball too this season. And last year’s first round pick James Hardy should be better in year two and has the potential to be an outstanding Plaxico-esque red zone target.
Add those guys on the outside to a solid stable of running backs (Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, Dominic Rhodes) and the Bills have the skill players to be successful on offense. The main question mark about the Bills is on the offensive line, where they are basically starting from scratch with new starters at every position. If the Bills O-line wasn’t in such flux, I’d be even higher on Edwards.
Depending on the size of your league, Edwards could be a sneaky good value as a starting QB. He’s certainly a great value as a backup. Here are some players currently rated higher than Edwards that I see him outperforming from a fantasy standpoint this season: Matt Ryan, Matt Cassel, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard, Kyle Orton, Jake Delhomme. And if Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer cannot stay healthy, he could be a better pick than those guys as well.
If your strategy is to wait on a QB, I think Edwards could provide solid value at the top of the third tier (after guys like Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Donovan McNabb). And though you may not win many preseason polls if you start Week 1 with Edwards as your starter, just remember that Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan weren’t rated that high last year either and ended up being starter-worthy as the season progressed.
Other QBs I like:
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants (O-Rank: 110, Position Rank: 39)
Ahmad Bradshaw is the kind of guy who could end up being a really nice flex player for a contending fantasy team. Why? Let’s count the reasons why his value is improved this year:
Now, there are reasons why Bradshaw is rated low and some of them are simple inverses of his positives; but it’s the NFL, so you never know how these things will play out over the course of a season. He’s a knucklehead and needs to prove he can stay out of trouble. Teams will undoubtedly be stacking the box against an offense without threats on the outside. He will not get any cheap, goalline TDs. He doesn’t have a history of catching many passes out of the backfield.
I don’t think you necessarily want to leave your draft with Bradshaw penciled in as a starter. At most, he should be a flex option for you as the season begins. But the potential is there for Bradshaw to be one of those guys who comes out of nowhere to be a top-15 back. Seriously. If Jacobs gets hurt, the Giants are not going to stop running the ball and Bradshaw will be the one getting the carries. Even if Jacobs doesn’t get hurt, Bradshaw will get a minimum of 10-12 touches per game and has Felix Jones-like game breaking ability to make those touches count.
Yahoo! currently has guys like Sammy Morris, Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson, Julius Jones, and Willis McGahee above Bradshaw. I like Bradshaw more than those guys and others.Â
Other RBs I like:
WR Ted Ginn, Miami Dolphins (O-Rank: 123, Position Rank: 43)
Dolphins fans (and I am one of them) laughed (or was it cried?) when Cam Cameron picked Ginn in the top-10 a few years back. The thinking was the Ginn would never amount to much more than a really talented return man. Everyone questioned his long-term viability as a WR threat.
But an interesting thing has happened along the way as Ginn enters his third season. He has steadily improved as a route-runner and pass catcher, and he appears poised to make good on the oft-heard promise of third-year wide receivers. From his rookie year to his sophomore season in South Florida, Ted Ginn jumped from 34 catches to 56, 420 yards to 790, and 12.4 yards per catch to 14.1. His TD, however, stayed steady at two.
I like Ginn this year because it will be his second season with Chad Pennington at QB. Remember, Pennington came to the Dolphins late in the game last year and was thrust into a role as the starter without much time to build a rapport with his young receiving corps. Now that they have had the whole offseason together, their efficiency (which was already solid) cannot do anything but improve.
And I know what you’re thinking: Pennington has a rag arm and won’t be able to take advantage of Ginn’s deep speed. True, you probably won’t see many deep TDs that remind you of Brady to Moss. However, Ginn’s strength is getting the ball in the open field, making people miss, and quickly accelerating to daylight. There is perhaps no QB in the NFL more adept at making quick, accurate, short- to medium-length throws than Chad Pennington.
I see no reason, other than injury, that Ginn can’t approach 80 catches and 1100 yards. He also should see the endzone a bit more this year, I would say 5-6 times. The emergence of Davone Bess and Anthony Fasano last year, combined with a tremendous running game, also gives Pennington more targets to throw too and ensures that defenses can’t focus solely on Ginn.  And if your league counts return yards, Ginn should provide an occasional bonus there, although I don’t know if he’ll be the full-time kick returner. As the Dolphins #1 receiving threat they know they have to keep Ginn fresh.Â
Among the receivers currently rated higher than Ginn that I like him more than: Chris Chambers, Deion Branch, Domenik Hixon, Derrick Mason, Michael Crabtree, Laveraneus Coles, Jerricho Cotchery. Leave the draft with Ginn as your 4th receiving option and you very well could end up with a guy who ends up producing numbers of a consistent #2 WR or flex player.
Other WRs I like:
TE Kevin Boss, New York Giants (Current O-Rank: 180, Position Rank: 18)
I’m not sure that Boss is necessarily more talented than the TEs rated above him, but the circumstances of his team make him a good value. As mentioned above, the Giants are without proven WRs, especially guys who have proven that they can get into the endzone. But the Giants are a good team with a good defense and their offense is going to get the ball in good field position often with opportunities to score.
Last year Kevin Boss emerged as a guy with ability to get into the endzone, scoring 6 times on only 33 receptions. He had some clunkers in there, but it was also his first year starting full-time. With a season and an offseason to build rapport with Eli Manning, Boss could find himself as the go-to guy in the red zone. And let’s be honest: if tight ends aren’t scoring touchdowns, they probably aren’t giving you a whole lot of value if they aren’t named Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, or Antonio Gates.
If you wait to take a tight end, you could do a lot worse than Boss. I like him better than Anthony Fasano, Brent Celek, Visanthe Shiancoe, Jeremy Shockey, John Carlson, Dustin Keller, and even the oft-injured and mouthy Kellen Winslow this season. Boss will sneak up on you with his TD production. And if he can get himself into the 50-60 catch range, I think 8-9 TDs is very possible because of how the Giants’ offense is constructed.
So there you have it. Hopefully this information helps you out as your drafts approach. Remember, everything in fantasy football drafts is about minimizing risk early and then getting value late. Get yourself proven players early who will (barring injury) anchor your team. That frees you to roll the dice a bit more late in the draft, where you can often find the diamonds in the rough the can propel you to a championship.
**********
Remember, to get any and all fantasy questions answered in a quick and timely fashion, jump on over to the MSF Fantasy Football Discussion Forum, where we are waiting to help you out with your draft preparation.
* – Trent Edwards and Terrell Owens photo credit: Deadspin
* – Ahmad Bradshaw photo credit: GMenHQ.com
* – Ted Ginn photo credit: Heathcote/Getty via New York Daily News
About to leave for the semi-finals of my brother’s weekend basketball tournament. Time to fire off some quick sleepers for Week 15:
Sleeper – RB Dominic Rhodes, Indianapolis Colts
Perhaps this one is too easy. Joseph Addai will most likely not play on Sunday and Dominc Rhodes has averaged over 70 yards and a TD in the three games that he has received 17 or more carries this year for the Colts. I like that kind of production, especially with the Colts going up against the putrid Detroit Lions. Plug Dominic Rhodes in at your #2 RB slot and be confident.
Sleeper – RB Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants
Brandon Jacobs is injured and out this weekend as well. Typically, Derrick Ward gets the bulk of the carries, with Ahmad Bradshaw having an increased but lesser role. This week, the Giants play a Dallas defense that has been performing much better recently. And the Giants passing game is without its big play threat in the suspended Plaxico Burress. Anyone else see Domenik Hixon do his Braylon Edwards impression and drop the wide open bomb last week? Yeah, something tells me that Eli Manning may be a little bit more reluctant to take chances downfield.
That should mean more opportunities for Bradshaw. With the Giants passing game struggling, and running still being their bread and butter, I look for them to get Bradshaw at least 10 touches, and maybe 15. He is averaging 5.9 yards per carry after averaging over 8 yards per carry last year. He doesn’t catch the ball much out of the backfield, but he could break loose for a big run at some point and find his way to the endzone with the increased touched. Derrick Ward is a fine #2 RB for Week 15, but I’d also feel good about Ahmad Bradshaw as a flex.
Sleeper – WR Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins
Last week, I told you to pick up Ted Ginn Jr., who I thought would benefit from the absence of Greg Camarillo. Ginn responded with 1 catch for 18 yards only 29 return yards. My apologies. What I failed to realize is that Camarillo’s value came from being Chad Pennington’s underneath security blanket, a guy who could make catches over the middle and pick up a few extra yards with his scrappiness. That will never be Ginn, but it is a good description of rookie Davone Bess, who has been a revelation as an undrafted free agent out of Hawaii.
Some guys are just productive football players, like Wes Welker for instance. And while Davone Bess is far from being in Welker’s category, he could certainly be desribed as a poor man’s Welker. Bess makes tough catches, picks up yards after the catch, and knows how to get open against zone coverages. Last week, Bess had 9 catches for 74 yards and proved that he can be the new Camarillo in the Dolphins offense. And here’s the thing: Davone Bess was not a one-week wonder. He has 20 catches for around 250 yards in the last three games. He is not a big red zone threat, and has only one TD this season, but Bess has a lot of value in PPR leagues.
Sleeper – RB Maurice Morris, Seattle Seahawks
Maurice Morris will get the start for the Seattle Seahawks this weekend when they take on the St. Louis Rams. Both of these teams pretty much suck, but Morris could have a decent day against a pretty awful defense. Morris has not scored a TD this year, but he did rumble for over 100 yards against Washington in Week 12. If you’re desperate for a #2 RB or flex fill-in who will get touches, Maurice Morris could have a decent day.
Sleeper – Indianapolis Colts Defense
First off, they are playing the Detroit Lions. A Big 12 defense might be a good play this week against the Detroit Lions. Additionally, Bob Sanders is back and that changes the entire complexion of the Colts D. The Colts are a good choice if you need a defense for Week 15.
And finally…
Sleeper – WR Malcolm Floyd, San Diego Chargers
While researching my own sleeper picks, I came across the following article in Yahoo talking about Malcolm Floyd as a potentially strong play this weekend. Sounds good to me. I’ll give it my own stamp of approval and link you there.
I’m not sure if we are doing another start em, sit em chat tomorrow. Stay tuned. But feel free to ask any last-minute questions in the comment area and I’ll be sure to get to them as soon as I am able. Good luck in Week 15 everyone!
