Now let’s break down the playoff scenarios for the AFC based on what happens in Week 17. There is still a lot to be decided.

AFC Playoff Scenarios

Houston Texans

The NFC playoff scenarios started out with an easy one – the Cowboys-Giants winner is the #4 seed, the loser goes home – and the AFC playoff scenarios start out with an even simpler one:

The Houston Texans are the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs, regardless of what happens in Week 17.

While Houston could finished in a three-way 11-5 tie with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, here is a quick explanation for why they could not vault over either for the #2 seed, via HoustonTexans.com:

If the Texans, Ravens and Steelers all finish 11-5, the Steelers would be eliminated from a tiebreaker because the Ravens beat them twice and would be AFC North champions. The Ravens would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Texans because they beat them in Week 6.

New England Patriots

The Patriots have clinched the AFC East as well as a first round bye. In Week 17, they have home field advantage on the line.

If the Pats can beat Buffalo at home, they will be the #1 seed in the AFC. If they lose to Buffalo, the Patriots will still nab the #1 seed if Pittsburgh and Baltimore lose.

If New England loses and either or both of Baltimore/Pittsburgh win, they would have identical 12-4 records. New England loses the tie-breaker with both the Steelers and Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have clinched at least a wild card spot, along with Pittsburgh. With both teams sitting at 11-4, the AFC North (and more) remains up in the air.

If Baltimore beats Cincinnati, the Ravens clinch the AFC North and a first round bye because they beat Pittsburgh twice and thus own the tie-breaker. The Ravens also clinch the AFC North if they lose to Cincy and Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland. However, if Baltimore loses to Cincy and Pittsburgh beats Cleveland, then the Ravens get the wild card.

As mentioned above, the Ravens also can clinch home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs if they win and New England loses to Buffalo.

Pittsburgh Steelers

If Pittsburgh beats Cleveland and Baltimore loses to Cincinnati, the Steelers are AFC North champions and will host a first round playoff game. Should the Steelers lose, or if they win and Baltimore wins, the Steelers are the wild card.

If the Steelers win and both Baltimore and New England lose, the Steelers become the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs and will have home field advantage throughout as well as a first round bye.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos clinch the AFC West title and the #4 seed by beating Kansas City in Week 17. If the Raiders lose to the Chargers, then the Broncos win the AFC West regardless of if they win or lose against Kansas City.

In the unlikely even that Denver and Kansas City tie, Denver still goes to the playoffs if Oakland loses or ties.

And now let’s run down the many, many, many possibilities for what could happen with the #6 seed in the AFC:

AFC Playoff Scenarios for #6 Seed

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have, theoretically, the best chance at securing the #6 seed because they have a “win and in” scenario (though it does come against Baltimore). If Cincinnati beats Baltimore, or ties, they are in as the #6 seed.

Cincinnati can still make the playoffs with a loss if one of the following scenarios play out:

• The Jets lose or tie and Oakland loses or ties
• The Jets lose or tie and Denver loses or ties

Oakland Raiders

If Oakland wins and Denver wins, Oakland cannot win the AFC West and host a first round playoff game. However, the Raiders could still earn the #6 seed if they win and the following happens:

• Cincinnati loses and Tennessee loses or ties
• Cincinnati loses and the Jets win

New York Jets

Yes, the Jets can still make the playoffs. They need a lot of help to do it though.

First, New York needs to beat Miami in Miami. That will be no easy task. If New York loses, they are out no matter what.

If they win, the Jets will make the playoffs if one of the following two scenarios play out:

• Cincinnati loses, Tennessee loses or ties, and Oakland loses or ties
• Cincinnati loses, Tennessee loses or ties, and Denver loses or ties

Tennessee Titans

The Titans also still have a shot at the playoffs, but a lot has to happen. Of course, they have to beat Houston. If they do, they will make the playoffs if one of the following scenarios play out:

• Cincinnati loses and the Jets win and Oakland loses or ties
• Cincinnati loses and the Jets win and Denver loses or ties
• Cincinnati loses and the Jets lose or tie and Oakland wins and Denver wins

Whew, that’s a lot of help the Titans need…

AFC Playoff Predictions

With so many possibilities, what will actually happen?

Here are my predictions for the pivotal Week 17 games:

• New England beats Buffalo
• Miami beats New York
• Baltimore beats Cincinnati
• Pittsburgh beats Cleveland
• Tennessee beats Houston
• Denver beats Kansas City
• San Diego beats Oakland

This would create the following first playoff matchups:

• Byes: #1 New England (13-3), #2 Baltimore (12-4)
• #3 Houston (10-6) v #6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
• #4 Denver (9-7) v #5 Pittsburgh (12-4)

What do you think will happen? Comment below.

OFFENSE: RB ARIAN FOSTER, HOUSTON TEXANS

• For the month, Foster had an NFL-high 406 rushing yards on 69 attempts (5.9 average) with three touchdowns as the Texans posted a 2-1 record in September.
• Foster leads the NFL with 502 yards from scrimmage in three games this season.
• In Week 1 against Indianapolis, Foster became the first player in NFL history to rush for at least 200 yards and three touchdowns on Kickoff Weekend in a 34-24 win over the Colts.  He also became the seventh player all-time to reach 200 rushing yards on Kickoff Weekend.
• In Week 3 against Dallas, he posted his second 100-yard rushing game of the season with 106 yards.  Foster was the first running back to gain over 100 yards against the Cowboys in 20 games.

• In his second season from Tennessee, this is Foster’s first career Player of the Month Award.  He joins wide receiver ANDRE JOHNSON (2008) as only the second Texans offensive player to win the award.

DEFENSE: DE ROBERT MATHIS, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• For the month, Mathis registered 11 tackles, four sacks and one forced fumble as he helped the Colts to a 2-1 September record.
• Mathis has recorded a sack in each of the Colts first three games in 2010.
• In Week 2, Mathis registered a season-high two sacks and a forced fumble in a 38-14 victory over the New York Giants.
• His four sacks in September are tied for first in the AFC and tied for second in the NFL.
• In his eighth year from Alabama A&M, this is Mathis’ second Player of the Month Award.  He previously won the award in November of 2009.

SPECIAL TEAMS: K MIKE NUGENT

• Nugent made all eight field goals for the month, including two attempts from 50-plus yards (54, 50) and all five extra-point attempts to help the Bengals to a 2-1 record in September.

• In Week 2 against Baltimore, Nugent connected on a career-high five field goals (36, 30, 46, 38, 25), scoring all of the Bengals’ points in a 15-10 victory over the Ravens.
• Through Week 3, Nugent is tied for first in the NFL with eight field goals and is tied for second in the league with 29 points among kickers.

• In his sixth season from Ohio State, this is Nugent’s first career Player of the Month Award.  He is the first Bengals kicker in franchise history to win the award.

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As you know, Jerod is participating in the 2010 P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League, which is part of the Take It To The House program. In addition to competing for a trip to the Super Bowl, one of the perks Jerod received for participating was getting to spend a day at the NFL headquarters in New York. And that led to getting on the NFL’s media email list.

The NFL circulates interesting statistical and injury-related tidbits on a daily basis. Since we know that your appetite for NFL info is as insatiable as ours, we post them here for your enjoyment.

To get this info ever quicker, follow http://twitter.com/nflfootballinfo.

OFFENSE: WR ANDRE JOHNSON, HOUSTON TEXANS

• Johnson tied his career-high with 12 receptions for 158 yards (13.2 average) and one touchdown in a 30-27 overtime victory at Washington.
• Johnson now has 14 games with at least 10 catches and 100 receiving yards in his career, tying MARVIN HARRISON for the second-most such games in NFL history (JERRY RICE, 15).
• Johnson hauled in a 34-yard touchdown pass with 2:03 remaining in the fourth quarter to tie the game at 27.
• Helped the Texans overcome a 17-point deficit (27-10) to win the game in overtime.  It was the second-largest come-from-behind win in team history.
• Led the NFL in Week 2 in receptions (12) and receiving yards (158).
• In his eighth season from Miami, this is Johnson’s second career Player of the Week Award.  He previously won the award in Week 4 of 2006.

DEFENSE: LB JAMES HARRISON, PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Harrison registered 11 tackles, two sacks, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery in a 19-11 win at Tennessee.
• Harrison helped Pittsburgh’s defense limit Titans’ running back CHRIS JOHNSON, who entered the game with 12 consecutive 100-yard rushing performances, to 34 yards rushing on 16 carries (2.1 avg.).
• Played a pivotal role in the Steelers registering seven takeaways against the Titans (four fumble recoveries, three interceptions).  It was the most takeaways for Pittsburgh since they had seven versus Baltimore on Nov. 9, 1997 (four interceptions, three fumble recoveries).
• In his seventh year from Kent State, this is Harrison’s fourth career Player of the Week Award.  Harrison last won the award in Week 5 of 2009.

SPECIAL TEAMS: K MIKE NUGENT, CINCINNATI BENGALS

• In a key AFC North matchup, Nugent connected on a career-high five field goals (36, 30, 46, 38, 25), scoring all of the Bengals’ points in a 15-10 victory over the Ravens.
• The Ohio native joins SHAYNE GRAHAM, DOUG PELFREY, HORST MUHLMANN and JIM BREECH as the fifth Bengals kicker to convert five field goals in a game.
• It was the fifth time in team history that the Bengals have won a game without scoring a touchdown.
• Led the NFL with five field goals in Week 2 and ranked first in the league with 15 points among kickers last week.
• Ranks second in the NFL with six field goals this season and is third in the league with 21 points among kickers.
• In his sixth season from Ohio State, this is Nugent’s first career Player of the Week Award.  He is the first Bengals kicker to win Special Teams Player of the Week since DOUG PELFREY in 1995 (Week 1).

2010 AFC PLAYERS OF THE WEEK

**********

As you know, Jerod is participating in the 2010 P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League, which is part of the Take It To The House program. In addition to competing for a trip to the Super Bowl, one of the perks Jerod received for participating was getting to spend a day at the NFL headquarters in New York. And that led to getting on the NFL’s media email list.

The NFL circulates interesting statistical and injury-related tidbits on a daily basis. Since we know that your appetite for NFL info is as insatiable as ours, we post them here for your enjoyment.

To get this info ever quicker, follow http://twitter.com/nflfootballinfo.

Are you excited? Ready to cheer on your favorite team? Have your war paint or favorite jersey in front of you?

Well, enough with the questions, it is officially time for Noontime Sports to serve up our divisional winners and Super Bowl predictions.

In this particular blog post, we have provided our AFC breakdown and playoff predictions.

Follow the link to see our NFC playoff predictions and division breakdown.

AFC East

1.) New York Jets

Sexy Rexy is back, (Rex Ryan), along with a team that is not afraid to express some swagger too. Look for the green and white to cause some trouble toward opposing offenses. The defense should be improved, but this season rests on the shoulders of second year quarterback Mark Sanchez.

2.) New England Patriots

Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Logan Mankins have been the center of attention due to contract issues. Behind these all-stars are a group of young players that will need another year or two to grow into valuable veterans. Also, can their defense rise to the occasion or will the offense have to score all the points?

3.) Miami Dolphins

Why is everyone so high on quarterback Chad Henne? Will Brandon Marshall help this offense and can Ronnie Brown remain healthy all season? Also, Jeff Ireland wants to use Bill Parcells as more of a consultant? Trouble is brewing in South Beach.

4.) Buffalo Bills

Chan Gailey inherits a terrible team that will most likely win two or three games this season, but how much longer can the Buffalo faithful take another rebuilding year?

AFC North

1.) Baltimore Ravens

With the additions of Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh, along with a great defense, are the birds Super Bowl bound?

2.) Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback Carson Palmer is due to have a great season. Their defense is Dallas Cowboys 2.0 from 2008, (Tank Johnson and Adam “Pacman” Jones), and also, let’s not forget that Terrell Owens will be a great target or decoy for Chad Ochocinco. Their defense is aggressive and the Bengals are certainly a lock to win the wildcard, but injuries could derail the ’09 AFC North champs.

3.) Pittsburgh Steelers

Without “Big” Ben Roethlisberger for the first few weeks, how well will this team be? Their offense will not be as explosive, but this weekend, it is all on the shoulders of Dennis Dixon, who has some big shoes to fill.

4.) Cleveland Browns

Quarterback issues are a major theme with this squad, but overall, their young talent should start to slowly emerge as the season progresses. Also, lets welcome Mike Holmgren to Cleveland and see if he can turn this team upside down. Besides, now that LeBron James has left, the city needs one team to be proud about.

AFC South

1.) Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning and the rest of the ’09 AFC Champions will be hungry again to return to the Super Bowl this season and look for an improved running performance by Donald Brown.

2.) Houston Texans

Andre Johnson is the best wide out in the game. Mario Williams has become a feared defensive end, but the main question for the Texans is can they beat the Colts twice this season, as well as compete against the rest of the AFC?

3.) Tennessee Titans

Vince Young had a sensational second half last season, but possibly the main reason they turned their winless start around was due to head coach Jeff Fisher wearing a Peyton Manning jersey. Don’t expect a great season from running back Chris Johnson, but overall, the Titans will fight, fight and fight some more for a wild card spot.

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars

This team is awful, but as long as no blackouts occur in Jacksonville, then maybe we could consider it a successful season.

AFC West

1.) San Diego Chargers

This team is by far the best in a lousy division, although, how well will Ryan Matthews do in place of LaDanian Tomlinson and will Vincent Jackson actually play this season too?

2.) Oakland Raiders

Change is coming for the silver and black, but unfortunately, they should not be a playoff team. The addition of quarterback Jason Campbell and a much stronger Darren McFadden, the offense may cause nightmares to opposing defenses.

3.) Kansas City Chiefs

New England Patriots 2.0 will be fun to watch. Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel are back on the same sideline together, which will help improve this somewhat decent squad to a good one. Also, look for a good season from quarterback Matt Cassel.

4.) Denver Broncos

Elvis Dumervil has officially left the building for the season, along with their season. Their main receiver is Jabar Gaffney, but he is more of a second and third string guy. Look for a rough season in Colorado.

———-

AFC Playoff Prediction

1.) Baltimore Ravens

2.) Indianapolis Colts

3.) San Diego Chargers

4.) New York Jets

5.) New England Patriots

6.) Cincinnati Bengals

———-

Wild Card Round Results

New England (5) beats New York Jets (4)

Cincinnati (6) beats San Diego Chargers (3)

Divisional Round Results

Baltimore (1) beats Cincinnati (6)

Indianapolis (2) beats New England (5)

AFC Championshp Results

Baltimore (1) beats Indianapolis (2)

———-

2010 AFC Champions

Baltimore Ravens

Follow the link to see our NFC playoff predictions and division breakdown.

You have the Jets emerging as a threat with rookie QB Mark Sanchez and the Ravens rolling right along with 2nd year QB Joe Flacco, but you also have the duds and the disappointments.

Lets have a look at all 32 AFC teams.

AFC EAST

1. New York Jets 3-0

It has been a great story for the Jets this season. Mark Sanchez has quieted the doubters, and has this team on their way to a playoff spot.

But not all the credit goes to Sanchez.

The defense has played phenomenally, giving up only 11 points a game, good for 2nd in the league. The run defense is 9th in the league, and the pass defense is 5th.

With a defense like that, and Sanchez consistently hitting Cotchery, this Jets team could take the division title.

2. New England Patriots 2-1

With the return of Tom Brady, many thought the Patriots would be back to their dominant selves again, but New England has shown some vulnerability.

Sure, their record is decent enough, and their ranks in the team stats are solid, but if you look at the games they have played New England has had some uncharacteristic trouble beating the opponent. Case in point: Week 1, when they almost lost to Buffalo, a team that is struggling on offense. This has me thinking it’s the defense that is holding the Patriots back.

Both Moss and Welker are dealing with nagging injuries, which could hinder the Patriots if they continue to linger. The Patriots will have a winning record, but they are not the 18-1 team they were in 2007.

3. Buffalo Bills 1-2

This was supposed to be a bounce back year for the optimistic Bills, but it has been the opposite.

The defense is playing terribly, T.O. has only 98 yards receiving in three games, and the team does not have a rushing TD.  Buffalo is going to have to step it up both offensively and defensively if they want to have a chance in this division.

4. Miami Dolphins 0-3

Probably the biggest letdown in the AFC so far.

After posting an 11-5 record in 2008, the team looked rejuvenated. This year, however, they are playing like the 1-15 team they were in 2007. 

Now that Chad Pennigton is out for the rest of the year, the team picked up now former Chiefs QB, Tyler Thigpen. Will Thigpen be the answer? I don’t see it happening.

Miami has dug itself in a huge hole in arguably the best division in the AFC. It will be a long season for the Dolphins and their fans.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens 3-0

This team is proving that last year wasn’t a fluke.

Joe Flacco is the real deal. He has driven this offense rather than just managing the game, something that makes me think this team could win the Super Bowl this year.

The defense is still the same dominate force, but now the Ravens don’t have to solely rely on their defense to make the big plays. Joe Flacco has developed a solid rapport with veteran Derick Mason, and if Flacco can continuously find Mason, watch out.

2. Cincinanti Bengals 2-1

Kind of a surprise to me that this team has a 2-1 record, but Cincinati has a knack for laying low and surprising you.

Carson Palmer isn’t having a spectacular year, but he is healthy, and that’s really what the team needs. Cedric Benson has been a sleeper this year, and Ochocinco is back to playing well.

The schedule has them playing some tough teams, but if everything continues we could see Cincy in the playoffs.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers 1-2

Pittsburgh probably didn’t see themselves being 1-2 after week 3 and in 3rd place, but that’s the way it has gone for the previous Super Bowl champs.

Their current 1-2 record is deceiving and should improve with their next 3 games coming against San Diego, Detroit, and Cleavland. I don’t see the Steelers failing to recover and not making the playoffs.

Big Ben is looking sharp and Willie Parker has finally found his footing in the running game. Look for the Steelers to win three weeks straight and get back on track.

4. Cleavland Browns 0-3

I don’t mean to diss on the Browns, but there are so many problems with this team right now, most noticeably the QB problem. Neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson have shown themselves to be the answer, but you can’t just blame them.

The Browns’ O-line is non-existent, the WRs seem like they are not even on the field, and the defense is just awful. All of this makes the Browns the worst team in the NFL, as of week 3.  This looks like to be another disappointing year for the Browns.

AFC SOUTH

1. Indianapolis Colts 3-0

The Colts find themselves atop the division. Not much of a surprise there.

Peyton Manning really runs this team, something that he has been doing for years. The Colts are a dominant force in the league, and I like their chances of making it deep into the playoffs.

The rout of the Cardinals Monday night was a sign that the Colts are finally hitting their marks. Watch out NFL.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars 1-2

Jacksonville is a perfect example of a medicore team that just needs some more talent to become a good-to-great team. They are once again showing signs of being a .500 team, but’s I think it’s possible for the Jaguars to be a 9-7 team. 10-6 would be pushing it a little.

Just a little more talent, and this team could make a name for itself.

3. Houston Texans 1-2

Houston is a great example of an up-and-coming team.

With the duo of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, Houston can be dominating on offense. What’s killing them is their running game and their defense. Steve Slaton has yet to find his footing, and the defense is in the bottom four in three out of the four primary defensive stats.

Like Jacksonville, Houston is a team that just needs a little more talent. They have the offensive weapons, but they desperatly need the defensive weapons.

4. Tennessee Titans 0-3

The biggest shocker in the NFL is that the Titans are 0-3. I didn’t expect to post better numbers than last year, but I never expected to see them in last place and 0-3.

They are in a desperate place right now.

The Titans’ pass defense is ranked 29th, which could be the source of the problems. They are giving up 23 points a game, a little too high if this team wants to succeed.

They better find a cure fast before they dig themselves to deep into a hole.

AFC WEST

1. Denver Broncos 3-0

Denver has found its way back to the top of their division even after losing their star QB and having to deal with Brandon Marshall’s antics. Yet the Broncos have overcome those off-season problems.

The only problem the Broncos have is trying to sustain their current lead. Last year they blew their division lead, and I hope they are trying something different so that it does not happen again.

Kyle Orton is doing what he does best: winning football games. As long as they keep playing consistently, and not suffering any major injuries, the Broncos could easily win the AFC West title.

2. San Diego Chargers 2-1

San Diego has a great QB in Philip Rivers, but LT has yet to come back to his old ways.

LT is on the “DL” right now and the Chargers have yet to find a good replacement for him, which has led to the Chargers being second to last in rushing yards. Their inability to run the ball has been the main source of the Chargers not making it deep into the playoffs the past couple of years.

The defense remains steady, but far from great.

The Chargers need their running game back or there is little hope for this team to make the playoffs.

3. Oakland Raiders 1-2

The Raiders do have a win, but don’t expect many more.

This team can’t score if the players’ lives depended on it. JaMarcus Russell seems like another 1st pick bust. Darius Heyward-Bey has only one catch this year. These players just prove that the Raiders draft the worst possible guys.

Something is wrong with this organization. It needs to be revamped, and it needs to be done now.

4. Kansas City Chiefs 0-3

I wanted to believe in this team and I wanted them to succeed, but all they have shown is that they are still way behind.

They made the worst move in releasing Tony Gonzalez, who is the greatest TE to ever play. He was also their entire offense. Once he left, so did the offense.

Dwayne Bowe is showing promise, and Matt Cassel…well…we will just have to wait and see. Their O-line is just terrible, so it’s no wonder Casel can’t score. The defense is always on top of him.  

The Chiefs were hoping to compete this year, but thats not going to be possible this year. All I can say is wait ’til next year.

Stay tuned for the follow-up article about the NFC.

Wild Card weekend is now over. Follow the link for the Divisional Round Playoff Matchups, Announcer Pairings, and Point Spreads.

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The Week 17 action is in the books, and so is the 2008 regular season for the NFL. As always, it was exciting and filled with twists and turns, and now we are left with 12 playoff teams to battle it out in the NFL playoffs for a chance to win the Super Bowl.

Quickly, here is a look at the playoff seedings:

AFC Playoff Teams by Seed: 1 – Tennessee Titans (13-3) 2 – Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) 3 – Miami Dolphins (11-5) 4 – San Diego Chargers (8-8) 5 – Indianapolis Colts (12-4) 6 – Baltimore Ravens (11-5) NFC Playoff Teams by Seed: 1 – New York Giants (12-4) 2 – Carolina Panthers (12-4) 3 – Minnesota Vikings (10-6) 4 – Arizona Cardinals (9-7) 5 – Atlanta Falcons (11-5) 6 – Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) AFC Playoff Matchups and Schedule (all specific dates and times to be announced) Wild Card Round, January 3rd and 4th:

#6 Baltimore Ravens at #3 Miami Dolphins

#5 Indianapolis Colts at #4 Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers

Divisional Round, January 10th and 11th:

(both games will be televised on CBS)

Lowest seed remaining at #1 Tennessee Titans

Highest seed remaining at #2 Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC Playoff Matchups and Schedule

(all specific dates and times to be announced)

Wild Card Round, January 3rd and 4th:

#6 Philadelphia Eagles at #3 Minnesota Vikings

#5 Atlanta Falcons at #4 Arizona Cardinals

Divisional Round, January 10th and 11th:

(both games will be televised on FOX)

Lowest seed remaining at #1 New York Giants

Highest seed remaining at #2 Carolina Panthers

The AFC and NFC Championship Games are on January 18th, and the Super Bowl is on February 1st.

This post is for 2008!!!

Follow the link to see the 2009 NFL playoff picture and Week 17 scenarios for the AFC and NFC.

__________

There is one week of football left to be played in the 2008 NFL regular season. Let’s take a quick peek at the AFC playoff picture, along with a look at the potential scenarios that could play out in Week 17.

(Update: If you’re interested, I just posted the NFC Playoff Picture and Scenarios.)

First, here is the current AFC playoff picture, if the season ended today:

The first round byes would go to the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers, who are locked into the #1 and #2 seeds, regardless of what happens in Week 17.

The Miami Dolphins (10-5) would be the #3 seed and host a first round playoff matchup against the #6 seed Baltimore Ravens (10-5). Interestingly, Baltimore is the only team that the Dolphins beat last year during their 1-15 campaign.

The Denver Broncos (8-7) would be the #3 seed and host a first round playoff game against the #5 seed Indianapolis Colts (11-4), who have already clinched a playoff spot.

Amazingly, the two worse teams, the Dolphins and Broncos, would be hosting playoff games by virtue of winning their divisions.

Okay, so that’s the picture as of right now. However, the New England Patriots (10-5), the New York Jets (9-6), and the San Diego Chargers (7-8) are still alive. Remember, only the Titans, Steelers, and Colts have clinched playoff spots.

The San Diego Chargers play the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football in Week 17 in San Diego. If the Chargers win, they capture the AFC West crown and the #4 seed. If the Broncos win, they capture the AFC West crown and the #4 seed. Easy enough, right?

In the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets square off in Week 17, while the New England Patriots take on the Buffalo Bills. If the Dolphins beat the Jets, they win the AFC East and are in the playoffs. If the Jets beat the Dolphins, and the Patriots lose to the Bills, the Jets capture the AFC East and are in the playoffs. If the Jets beat the Dolphins and the Patriots beat the Bills, the Patriots win the AFC East and are in the playoffs.

If the Baltimore Ravens beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17, they clinch a wild card berth regardless of what else happens. If the Baltimore Ravens lost in the Week 17, they would still make the playoffs (for certain) with a Dolphins win over the Jets and a Patriots loss to the Bills. Beyond that, all kinds of tie-breaker stuff gets involved for who gets the final AFC wild card spot.

Here are the potential scenarios and, to the best of my knowledge, the outcomes:

AFC Playoff Scenario #1:

If the Jets beat the Dolphins, the Patriots beat the Bills, and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville, all four team are 10-6. The Patriots would win the AFC East and be in. The Jets and Dolphins would be determined by the first division tie-breaker, head-to-head, and the Jets would win out because they beat the Dolphins twice. Between the Jets and Ravens in this scenario, the Jets would advance because the second tie-breaker to determine the wild card between non-division opponents in conference record. The Jets would be 8-4, while Baltimore would be 7-5.

For the record, here is a breakdown of the NFL tiebreaker rules.

AFC Playoff Scenario #2:

(edited from my original post, in which I had this wrong.)

If the Dolphins beat the Jets, the Patriots beat the Bills, and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville, then the Dolphins win the AFC East and the Patriots are 11-5, while Baltimore is 10-6. So the Patriots would win the wild cared.

AFC Playoff Scenario #3:

If the Jets beat the Dolphins, the Patriots lose to the Bills, and Baltimore loses to Jacksonville, then the Jets are AFC East champs and the Dolphins, Patriots, and Ravens are all 10-6. Miami and New England would match up in the division tie-breaker and it would go all the way to third tie-breaker of W/L record in common games. Whoever won that tie-breaker would then face off against Baltimore in the non-division-opponent tie-breaker rules. Miami and Baltimore would tie in conference record, so it would move onto winning % against common opponents. Baltimore would beat New England in terms of conference record.

My goodness, what a headache. Glad I edited this, and thank you to Epic Fall Guy in the comments below for pointing out that I had erred in my first attempt. I do not guarantee any of these analyses…but I think what I’ve said above is how it will go.

And again, Baltimore can make all of this very easy simply by beating a terrible Jacksonville team. Of course, this is the NFL, so does anyone really expect that to happen?

After the Bears-Packers game on Monday night, I’ll break down the NFC playoff picture and the scenarios for Week 17.

After watching the Colts win their fourth game in a row and six of their last eight, I have had to suffer through yet another day of people telling me about how another team let the Colts off the hook. And while I agree that last night’s game could have gone the other way for a few different reasons, I feel that the Colts are simply being disrespected and overlooked and I can’t seem to figure out why.

I listen to excuse after excuse for why other teams have lost to the Colts. What about how the Colts have won games with superior effort and sheer will on both sides of the ball? Is it because they started the season a little differently than they have over the last few years? Is that why 7-4 looks so bad? Yeah, 9-0 three years in a row sets a pretty high bar. Maybe that’s it. Maybe the expectations are too high. Maybe the Colts have already peaked. Are you kidding? They’re more consistent than JoePa’s bedtime. More efficient than Al Gore’s hybrid bicycle. But credit, no way, not for the blue and white.

So, why?

This has been the most upside-down, prediction-failing, franchise-changing season in recent memory, and I want to say that if someone claims to have seen this coming, I’d like some of whatever they were smokin’. There are more questions than answers in this year’s NFL. The Falcons are competitive? The Titans are 10-1? The Jets, uh-hmm, let me clear my throat here, are looking like a force to be reckoned with in the AFC?

Can I catch my breath?

I understand some of it, sure. But the Colts, the only team other than the Pats who are consistently a team to beat in the AFC, are looking the role again. So why the disrespect? Let me give you a few reasons, not excuses, on why the Colts are still my favorite to represent the AFC in February.

Peyton Manning for MVP

After starting the season on a surgically-repaired knee (that he never made any excuses for), Peyton Manning has returned to form. I know there are others that will garner more attention for the MVP award this season, but no one does more for a team than Big P (Well, maybe Drew Brees). He does have a great receiving corps, so they would be fine with anybody under center, right? Ever watch the Colts offense with Jim Sorgi? Hell no, not even close. And with the league’s worst rushing attack (78.9 yards per game) and a defense that is injury-depleted, the Colts still sit at 7-4. Why? Hmmm…

Ace in the Hole Bob Sanders

When Chuck Norris goes to sleep at night, he checks his closet for Bob Sanders. I’ve seen interviews with his parents, but I still swear he was built in some kind of laboratory. Bob is one of the baddest dudes in the league, but he doesn’t scare offenses from the sidelines. Last year he proved his worth by getting a much deserved Defensive Player of the Year, and this year we see why. Don’t get me wrong, the Colts defensive efforts have been great: they don’t give up, they play their collective ass’s off, and they can still get it done when they have to. But the can-o-spinach with dreadlocks has not yet made his presence felt.

Two years ago the Colts could not win a Super Bowl, would not win a Super Bowl, because they couldn’t stop the run, because they were too small up front, because they were too inexperienced in the secondary. Well, guess what? Sanders comes back to play at the end of the season and the Colts defense goes from ghastly to nasty. Larry Johnson will run all over them. Nope, didn’t happen. The Patriots offense will destroy them. Nah, not this time. So when it comes down to it and #21 is in the lineup, the Colts D can stop anybody.

Tony Dungy

If there is a more calm and collected guy in the NFL, please tell me. This guy wouldn’t sweat in the Sahara. So when the Colts started the season not looking like they typically do, do you think he was worried? Doubt it. I’m not going to talk about how much of a class-act he is, or about the barriers he has broken down for African American coaches, those things get plenty of press. Instead, I give you simply facts: The Colts under Dungy have produced six playoff appearances, five AFC South Titles (in a row), two AFC Championship games, and, oh yeah, a Super Bowl title. They are also the only team in NFL history to win at least 12 games in five consecutive seasons. Lucky? Nah, Dungy.

I know that not everyone believes in the Colts right now, but this year has been exactly what I have been hoping for: a chance for the Colts to show the world that they are not the same underachieving team as years past, but a group of over-achievers that are ready to take on all comers, no matter what the stakes or circumstances. This is just our year, I can feel it, and I’m only giving the heads up now because I don’t want anyone spitting Pabst Blue Ribbon on their Zubaz come February.

You want to talk about how other teams have not when they should have? Well, I want to talk about how the Colts have when they should not have.

[tags]indianapolis colts, peyton manning, tony dungy, bob sanders, nfl[/tags]