Show details:

• Date: Wednesday, January 25
• Time: 6:00 CT (7:00 ET)
• Call-in number: (858) 365-5571 (also use this number to listen to the show anywhere right from your phone)
• Listen live link: Click here

Listen live using the link above or catch the archived version right here at MSF as soon as the show ends.

As for tonight’s topics, here is what the NFC North Report crew plans to discuss.

Tentative Show schedule:

• Depression Update: How Chris and Amanda are handling the playoff loss a week and a half later
• Pro Bowl talk
• Jay Cutler is a daddy!
  

  What if this guy got you pregnant?

• Adrian Peterson potentially changing numbers – good move?
• Peyton Manning potentially leaving the Colts
• Super Bowl plans – Will we watch?

If you missed out on past episodes, feel free to catch up on all the pigskin chatter on iTunes.

Mike McQueary provided some disturbing but important (and damning) testimony about Jerry Sandusky; the Sam Hurd drug saga continued to unfold; and Adrian Peterson explained one of his motivations for returning to the field.

Mike McQueary Testimony

It is disturbing to read about the testimony from Penn St. assistant Mike McQueary today and what he saw in the shower with Jerry Sandusky and a “10-12 year old” boy.

Some of the testimony from McQueary:

• McQueary says he has “no question” he witnessed a sexual act between Sandusky and a kid, and he conveyed that to Paterno.
• McQueary said he can’t say he is 100 percent sure there was sexual intercourse but that’s what he believes was happening.
• McQueary:”They were in a very sexually oriented position…”
• John McQueary (Father) said when Mike called, he heard fear in Mike’s voice and thought he had been injured.
• McQueary said he didn’t contact police because “of delicate nature. I tried to use my best judgement … I was sure act was over.”
• “I told them what I had seen … Was extremely sexual in nature, over the lines…”
• McQueary: “I know they saw me. They looked directly in my eyes.”
• McQueary also said he has never confronted Sandusky about the incident since.

This testimony from McQueary is extremely damaging to the defense of Sandusky. It’s also sickening to read and absorb as a human being.

The defense will look to contradict McQueary’s testimony here and ultimately in the Sandusky trial, using not only a contradictory email to a friend about whether he “stopped” the rape of the boy or not and hammering McQueary’s personal character.

It will be difficult for Sandusky and his defense team to counter the details and accuracy of Mike McQueary’s story, provided in such graphic and disturbing detail.

The Sam Hurd Drug Saga

In other troubling sports news, the incredulous and sad story of Chicago Bears WR Sam Hurd and his drug dealings have added an additional and burdensome straw on the entire back of the Chicago Bears organization. With a season that has plummeted south, this may be the backbreaker for their season and perhaps for GM Jerry Angelo’s future.

This was no small drug purchase either. Hurd allegedly said to the informant that he wanted to purchase “five to 10 kilograms of cocaine and 1,000 pounds of marijuana per week for distribution in the Chicago area,” according to the complaint. How’s that for your every day NFL Chicago Bears role model?

This story will only grow more difficult for the Bears and the NFL as additional details emerge. Hope Hurd enjoyed his dinner at Morton’s Steakhouse Wednesday; it may be his last good meal for some time.

NFL News Nuggets

Adrian Peterson Looking Out For Fantasy Owners

From disturbing to some much needed humor from the NFL of all places, specifically Adrian Peterson commenting about his status for Sunday’s Vikings game vs. New Orleans. Via the Star Tribute, All Day said he will play despite only being at 85% healed from his sprained left ankle.

“It’s very important, especially for my fantasy team owners,” Peterson joked. “They’ve been giving me a hard time on Twitter.” Love it AD!

All kidding aside, I know at least two Peterson owners who lost last week in their respective fantasy football playoffs.

Packers’ Plans

Look for the Packers to play Aaron Rodgers until the game is in hand, which may be early in the 3rd quarter vs. the offensively challenged Kansas City Chiefs. Matt Flynn will step in and continue the assault, preserving Green Bay’s undefeated season.

Will Ben Play?

The Saints and 49ers are tied for the #2 seed in the NFC conference with the tiebreaker currently in favor of San Francisco. Thus, the Saints and their fans are hoping Ben Roethlisberger and his severely sprained ankle will recover before the Monday night showdown at Candlestick.

Without Big Ben, veteran Charlie Batch will try and lead the Steelers to a win. It will be a huge break for the 49ers if Roethlisberger cannot play in their quest for the #2 seed, which means a bye and home field in the divisional round playoff.

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* – Mike McQueary photo credit: AP via KIMATV.com

For some of you, that means you have a team (or hopefully teams) on bye this week. If so, major kudos to you.

For others of you, Week 14 means that it’s the first week of the playoffs. If so, good luck, and hopefully the advice in this post will help you move on.

For others, Week 14 is the last week of your regular season. Maybe you’ve clinched a playoff spot or maybe you’re still scratching and clawing for one. Regardless, hopefully we can do you and your lineup some good with our picks in this week’s start em, sit em.

And for some of you this may be your first week without fantasy football – if your playoffs start this week and you did not make it; but if that’s the case, why would you be reading this?

Alas, if you’re here, you are looking for help in Week 14. And you’re in luck, because that is exactly what you’re about to get.

My apologies to those who came looking for Jon. I’m taking the start/sit reins today. I will do my very best to get you set up for success in this most pivotal of weeks.

Also, no looking back to Week 13, but not because it was a bad week. Frankly, I don’t know. I don’t even remember Jon’s picks. I assume some worked and some didn’t, like any week. But with the stakes now raised, there is no time for the rearview mirror. We look forward.

Here are your Week 14 start/sit picks:

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em QBs

Start Em QB: Matthew Stafford, DET (vs MIN)

Put this one in the no-brainer category.

Frankly, I feel a little bad making it the start em pick at QB, because it’s the equivalent of taking candy from a baby.  Nonetheless, it’s here, because if you own Matthew Stafford you absolutely must have him in your lineup this week.

And it all boils down to matchup.

If you watched the Broncos-Vikings game last week, you saw Broncos wide receivers running around wide open all day, providing easy pitch and catch opportunities for the not-so-renowned-as-a-thrower Tim Tebow. If Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker could do that against Minnesota, what do you think Stafford, Megatron, Burleson, Titus Young, and Brandon Pettigrew will do?

Chances are they’ll pick up a few dumb penalties…and a lot of passing/receiving yards and touchdowns. Don’t be shocked if Stafford, at home in a must win game for the Lions, ends up as the top scoring player in fantasy football this week, even though I’m going to be a little conservative with my projection.

Matthew Stafford fantasy football Week 14 projection: 345 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other start em QBs for Week 14:

• Rex Grossman faces a New England defense that made Dan Orlovsky startable last week. I would not start Grossman in a standard league, but he’s a solid two-QB league option this week; or a desperation fill-in with upside if your QB slot got hit by the injury bug.
• Philip Rivers looked like the old Philip Rivers Monday night, against a pretty good defense too. With his weapons healthy, and Buffalo on the schedule, Rivers is safe to deploy this week.
• Every week I scan for who is facing the Colts. This week it’s Joe Flacco. Play Joe Flacco. Even though the Ravens will likely run, run, run against Indianapolis, Flacco will throw enough to be useful. At the very least, he’s safe.

Sit Em QB: Michael Vick, PHI (at MIA)

Don’t do it. Don’t even think about it.

I know that Michael Vick owners are salivating at the thought of Vick returning this week and leading them to fantasy glory down the stretch, but in a one-QB league I wouldn’t even think about starting Vick unless I didn’t have another top 20 option. There are two good reasons:

1. Can you really trust Vick to stay healthy? No, you can’t. Really, you can’t trust him to stay healthy any week, but I’m especially leery about starting him without seeing him play a game since the rib injury.
2. Have you seen what the Dolphins are doing lately? They’ve won four out of five games, giving up a total of four touchdowns in that span.

With so many elite QBs outperforming Vick this season, and many marginal ones with good matchups, why would you risk your one QB spot on Vick?

Don’t do it.

Michael Vick fantasy football Week 14 projection: 200 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, 1 total TD, 1 turnover

Other sit em QBs for Week 14:

• Those of you who relied on Andy Dalton early in the season need to look elsewhere. He’s starting to hit a rookie wall…and this week that wall is Houston and its ball control offense and stingy D.
• I’m not necessarily telling you to sit Tim Tebow, because he always finds a way to put up at least serviceable fantasy numbers. That said, don’t expect a reprise of last week when he faces the Bears.
• Josh Freeman has been a major disappointment this year. I know that Philip Rivers torched Jacksonville Monday night, but the JAX defense has been pretty stingy overall this year. There is more reason to trust Jacksonville’s D than to trust Freeman.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em RBs

Start Em RB: Ryan Mathews, SD (vs BUF)

As with the Stafford selection, I feel like I may be insulting your intelligence a bit with this pick; however, because Mathews has been so up and down, and because people always ask about him in the comment sections and live chats, I feel compelled to make my Week 14 love for him official.

First, consider that Mathews is red hot. He has two straight 100-yard games, and on Monday night he torched Jacksonville for 112 yards on a mere 13 carries. He also got into the end zone, which he doesn’t always do.

Second, consider his Week 14 opponent, the Bills, who are very generous to opposing running backs. And with Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game getting going, there will be plenty of space for Mathews to roam; and we know how much he loves space.

Ryan Mathews fantasy football Week 14 projection: 115 yards rushing, 1 TD, 15 yards receiving

For the record, Mathews is clearly the #1 option in San Diego now over Mike Tolbert, though Tolbert still has some value as a flex option because he he’ll catch a few passes and get some goalline carries. But there is no debate right now between the two. Mathews is the guy.

Other start em RBs for Week 14:

• These should go without saying, but just to be sure: Ray Rice (v IND); Rashard Mendenhall v (CLE); Maurice Jones-Drew (v TB); Michael Turner (at CAR) – they are all top 10 options because of their proven ability and matchup.
• Adrian Peterson is supposed to play this week, at least that’s what I’m hearing. DO NOT ASK ME IF YOU SHOULD START HIM. Yes, you should. If he plays, he starts, even if the opponent is San Francisco (it’s not, it’s Detroit). End of discussion.
• Reggie Bush has to keep starting; and frankly, you should feel good about it at this point. With the Dolphins set to face the porous Eagles’ run defense, you should actually feel great about it.
• Shonn Greene is getting ready for another December heat up. He scored three TDs last week and faces the Chiefs this week. I like it.
• Looking deeper, C.J. Spiller is a decent option. He had 22 touches two weeks ago and 17 touches last week, and he’s picked up a few chunks under 200 yards with a TD during that span. You saw what MJD did the Chargers in a losing effort last week. Spiller could do about 75% of that…which is still good.

Sit Em RB: LeGarrette Blount, TB (at JAX)

Coming off of two 100-yard games, Blount looked like a surefire, slam dunk start against Carolina in Week 13. The Panthers have been the most generous defense to opposing running backs this year. What did Blount do? He punched 19 yards out of 11 carries. Yuck.

When it gets to playoff time, fantasy football is a lot like real football: you have to go with guys you can trust. It’s great that Blount has the potential for highlight reel leaps and thunderous trucks in any given week. He also can lay super eggs like he did last week. I don’t like kind of variance in my fantasy lineup in must-win scenarios.

Plus, I don’t like Blount’s matchup this week. Forget about what the Chargers did to the Jags last week. Jacksonville was dealing with turmoil galore and just happened to run into a Philip Rivers-led buzzsaw that was finally healthy. San Diego would have put up 20+ on San Francisco Monday night. Make no mistake: Jacksonville has a good defense, and they’ve been pretty stingy to opposing backs all year.

With Tampa Bay being frighteningly inconsistent as a team this year, and Blount dealing with a few unexpected distractions, I’m leaving him on my bench.

LeGarrette Blount fantasy football Week 14 projection: 13 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit em RBs for Week 14:

• Every week you should go down the list of running backs and see who is facing San Francisco. This week it’s Beanie Wells. Sit him. Even with the 49ers likely to be without Patrick Willis, they’ll shut down Arizona’s run game. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to fear Wells getting hurt mid-game. Add it up, and I don’t trust him this week, despite his strong play of late.
• Cedric Benson owners have a tricky decision this week. Benson faces a very good Houston defense, but he has also proven that he can produce against good defenses even when he isn’t racking up yards (see his 41-yard, 2-TD day versus Baltimore). Benson is not an automatic sit because of how big a part of Cincy’s offense he is, but he’s only a borderline top-20 guy because of the matchup, so if you’re loaded at RB he’d be the guy to leave on the bench.
• Did you know the Falcons have the 5th-stingiest fantasy defense against the run? It’s true. That means that there could be fewer points to go around for Cam, DeAngelo, and JStew this week. Since Cam seems to be the one who gets most of the TDs, I’d consider leaving the other two on my bench unless desperate. (Remember: all that production the last two weeks has come against Indy and Tampa.)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em WRs

Start Em WR: Jabar Gaffney, WAS (v NE)

Yes, I realize that by telling you to start Jabar Gaffney that I am essentially asking you to have faith in Rex Grossman; but I urge you not to look at it that way. Think about it more in terms of me telling you to not trust a Patriots secondary that gives up more average points per game to opposing wide receivers than any other defense in football.

You read that right. In fact, the Patriots give up 2.3 more fantasy points to opposing WRs than even the moribund Vikings do! Here, I’ll prove it.

Plus:

• Gaffney has 12 catches for 187 yards over the last two weeks, including one touchdown.
• Santana Moss has been back for the last two weeks, but he only has nine catches for 71 yards; so clearly he is a) the second option for Grossman and b) helping to draw attention away from Gaffney.
• Fred Davis is suspended, meaning more targets to go around; and surely a few of those targets will go Gaffney’s way.

Gaffney doesn’t score with enough regularity to trust him for TD production, so that makes him barely a top-20 option; but I think you can trust him to give you 6-8 catches and close to 100 yards. If you play three wide receivers, it’s nice to be able to bank on that from one of them.

Jabar Gaffney fantasy football Week 14 projection: 7 catches, 90 yards, .5 TDs (because I think he’ll catch one, but it’s probably more likely that he doesn’t…so don’t expect it.)

Other start em WRs for Week 14:

• I like Torrey Smith this week. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but Baltimore has faced the 49ers and Browns, two teams that have been pretty good against opposing receivers. This week Baltimore faces Indianapolis. Yes, I just chuckled devilishly too.
• Laurent Robinson was finally held out of the end zone last week, but he still amassed 70+ yards on four catches. With Miles Austin slated to return this week, you might be tempted to sit Robinson. I wouldn’t. Tony Romo trusts him, and the Giants are generous to opposing wide receivers. Of the two, give me the guy who has been playing the last two months and caught seven TDs in six games.
• I wouldn’t get down on Steve Smith despite his decreasing production the last month. Atlanta will force Carolina to pass, and the Panthers are without Brent Grimes in the secondary. I expect fireworks from the original Steve Smith.
• When he’s healthy, all Malcom Floyd does is produce. He’s healthy, the matchup is good, and I don’t care if he’s third fiddle in SD’s passing game. Start him.

Sit Em WR: Brandon Lloyd, STL (at SEA)

I’ve been high on Lloyd ever since he came over to St. Louis, and most of the time I’ve been right. Even though the Rams’ offense sucks, Lloyd has been able to carve out a niche as the lone consistent fantasy producer. I’m not sure how he’s done it, but he has.

Last week, however, Lloyd tallied only one catch against the mighty 49ers, and things aren’t looking too good this week. Not only is Sam Bradford dinged up, but his normal backup A.J. Feeley is hurt too. That means that…wait for it…Tim Brandstater could be starting at QB for St. Louis.

Combine the Rams’ woeful offense with this QB uncertainty, and then mix in Seattle’s underrated defense at home, and you have a recipe for a sit ‘em.

Brandon Lloyd fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 40 yards

Other sit em WRs for Week 14:

• Dwayne Bowe is on Revis Island this week, and he still has Tyler Palko tossing him the pigskin. Just didn’t want you to forget.
• I’m not telling you to sit them automatically, because both have been consistently productive this year, but just know that Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are facing the stingiest pass defense in the league. Granted, the Browns’ pass D numbers are skewed because teams just gash them with the run…but still, 12 weeks is a long time and receivers underperform against Cleveland on a weekly basis. If you have comparable options, go with them this week.
• The Redskins are stingier than you might think against opposing wide receivers. Play Gronk and Wes Welker for sure, but this is a week when Deion Branch doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
• Remember what I said above regarding my dislike for variance? Well, Julio Jones is the poster boy for wide receiver variance this year. Since Carolina is actually decent against the pass, Jones is another guy who is not an automatic sit…but who I’d have a hard time starting in a must-in situation because of how unpredictable he is.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em TEs

Start Em TE: Kellen Winslow, TB (at JAX)

See, I don’t completely hate the Buccaneers (though I did decide to use a picture of Kellen Winslow in a Browns uniform…just because) nor irrationally love Jacksonville.

Despite their defensive consistency this year (minus Week 13) Jacksonville hasn’t been great against opposing tight ends. They actually give up the third most fantasy points per week to them.

Combine this with my distrust in the Bucs’ running game, and the Bucs’ inconsistency at wide receiver this year, and Kellen Winslow seems like, at worst, a safe and reliable option this week. You could do worse from your tight end in a big spot.

Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 14 projection: 6 receptions, 60 yards, .5 TDs (again, I’m splitting the difference here; because of the matchup I think he can get one, but he only has two on the year.)

Other start em TEs for Week 14:

• If you’re desperate, consider Kevin Boss. The Packers give up more points to opposing tight ends than anyone, and the Raiders have had constant issues with their wide receivers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are big but inconsistent names who I think you should trust this week because of matchups.

Sit Em TE: Jermaine Gresham, CIN (v HOU)

It’s tough to put Gresham here, because he’s been playing much better lately; and he really should have two more touchdowns if controversial calls had gone his way. Still, the Texans’ defense locks down opposing tight ends like few others, so as tough as Gresham is to sit, it’s even tougher to trust him.

Jermaine Gresham fantasy football Week 14 projection: 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other sit em TEs for Week 14:

• Scott Chandler has actually been decently productive without scoring touchdowns over the last few weeks. However, his production has come against the Jets and Dolphins, two teams that are more generous to opposing tight ends than the Chargers are.
• Aaron Hernandez is far from a must-sit, but he is no longer 1b to Rob Gronkowski’s 1a in New England. Gronk is clearly #1, with Hernandez picking up the scraps as #2. That still usually means 4-5 catches and 45-50 yards per week, but the touchdowns just haven’t been there. Project accordingly.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em D/STs

Start Em D/ST: Seattle Seahawks (v STL)

The Seahawks have been a better fantasy defense than you might think this year, and they typically play better at home. Mix in a little Tim Brandstater (if Sam Bradford can’t go) and you have all the makings of a safe, potentially explosive fantasy defense for Week 14.

Seattle Seahawks D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 10 or fewer points, several sacks, 2+ turnovers

Other start em D/STs for Week 14:

• The Broncos should get Von Miller back, and they get to face a Bears’ offense that is without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.
• The New York Jets have fallen quite a way from the must-start-against-anyone status of a couple years back, but I do like them this week against the Kansas City Palkos.

Sit Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys (v NYG)

The Cowboys have been too up and down for my tastes this year. While Demarcus Ware is always around to get some sacks, and Eli Manning could always revert back to 3-INT Eli, I think this game will be a shootout, and frankly I don’t really want any part of either defense.

Dallas Cowboys D/ST fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, two sacks, 1 turnover

Other sit em D/STs for Week 14:

• Detroit’s defense might seem inviting against the 2-10 Vikings, but remember that Suh is out, Peterson is back, and Ponder-to-Harvin has become one of the most dangerous duos in the NFL.
• The Miami Dolphins have been playing pretty good defense lately; yet, even with that, and the fact that I’m telling you to sit Michael Vick this week, the presence of LeSean McCoy and Andy Reid still scares me enough to say that I wouldn’t want the Dolphins’ D starting for me in a must-win situation. The Eagles’ may suck, but they do have explosive capabilities that could, well, explode at any minute.

And that’s it! Another successful start/sit column in the books. Now it’s on to your questions. Have at the comment section, and we’ll be back all week to answer.

Also, since several of you have asked how you can help support MSF for the time we take, quite joyfully, to help you with your fantasy teams each week, I’ll just suggest checking out Daily Joust. You’ve seen me discussing them a lot this season, and they really do have a fun package of weekly fantasy games for you to play, from college to pro. Shoot, Keith Mullett thinks it’s “the best alternative to fantasy sports and gambling ever.“

Click here or on the image below, and if you become a paying member at Daily Joust we’ll end up getting a cut of the money. No pressure, just a suggestion that I’d make regardless of our affiliate status with them, and one that would help us out if you obliged.

Note: I used ESPN’s Points Against tool as a reference while writing this post.

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Fortunately, it sounds like Peterson avoided any serious damage to one of the appendages that helps him run all day.

According to Jeremy Fowler of The Pioneer Press (via PFT) Peterson suffered a Grade 1 high ankle sprain. Here is the series of tweets Fowler just sent out:

Today’s MRI revealed high ankle sprain for Adrian Peterson, I’ve learned.

Peterson is tough, but you’ve got to think his playing status is in jeopardy for at least a week.

Frazier confirms Peterson news: grade 1 high ankle sprain, will wear boot for few days, might start light football activity as early as Fri

Frankly, considering what the injury looked like, this is about the best news that Vikings fans and Peterson fantasy owners could have hoped for. Here is the video if you missed it:

The injury to Peterson obviously has huge ramifications in both real-life and fantasy football.

In real life, the Vikings play the Falcons next week, with Atlanta currently battling to keep its playoff hopes alive. The injury to Jay Cutler seemingly opens up a wild card spot, but Atlanta needs to keep winning to take advantage. A Vikings team without Peterson would be given little to chance to against the Falcons and would certainly allow Mike Smith to sleep a bit easier this week.

In fantasy, many teams in playoff contention are likely built around Peterson as the #1 running back. Removing his consistent production from the lineup would be tough to overcome in a likely pivotal Week 12 matchup, either in terms of playoff positioning or just making the playoffs at all. For Peterson owners, you may want to take a look at this waiver wire advice for Week 12 as you make contingency plans.

As Fowler said, Peterson is tough; he’s one of the toughest players in the NFL and will undoubtedly play if he can. Certainly the Vikings don’t have huge incentive to bring him back and risk further injury though, so it is probably wise to plan as if he won’t play and then be pleasantly surprised if he does.

In closing, enjoy this video of Peterson being the absolute beast that he is.

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Here it is.

Disclaimer: MSF is not responsible for anything said herein by Lange…or Lawson (just to be safe).

Drew Lange:

Amanda,

The Vikings and Packers play on Monday night, but I have to ask, is this the most undercovered Vikings-Packers game ever?

With all the Penn State news and NBA Lockout stuff and just the mess that was sports news last week, I don’t think I heard anything about this game outside of local talk radio.

Even without the craziness last week, would there have actually been much to talk about?

Green Bay is undefeated, Minnesota barely beat the Panthers. Aaron Rodgers has seven incomplete passes this year and the Vikings are still starting a rookie quarterback. Three weeks ago it was somewhat reasonable to think the Vikings could knock of the Packers in the Metrodome, but does anyone really think Minnesota can go into Lambeau and win on Monday Night?

Oh wait, I DO!

That’s right. I’m going all in this time. Minnesota showed they can hang with the Packers three weeks ago, and the Chargers showed us that Green Bay has some weaknesses. The Packers are a beatable team, and the Vikings are the team to do it.

Realistically, the Vikings would have won their first match-up if they wouldn’t have allowed two Green Bay touchdowns within the first five minutes of the second half.

Minnesota will beat Green Bay on Monday night. Your thoughts?

###

Amanda Lawson:

Drew,

Were you drunk when you sent me this lovely message? I mean we all know it wouldn’t have been the first time you’ve been under the influence while writing.

You make a valid point. With a rookie quarterback and a team that can barely beat the Panthers, they were able to give the Green Bay Packers a run for their money. No doubt about it. I was on edge up until last the few minutes of our last meeting.

However, to say that the Minnesota Vikings are going to beat the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field is down right ridiculous. Yes Jared Allen is a beast, and there’s a good chance he’ll make it to Rodgers at some point in the game. And Adrian Peterson is sure to make our defense work, and work hard.

But while the Packers defense has been criticized for not being the defense they were at the end of the 2010 season, if you look back to previous games the defense steps up when the game gets close. Yes, they’ve been known to give up yards, which is why the games have been a lot closer than they actually should be, but Ponder better be careful. Our defense scored a lot last week, and you know they’d love to do it again.

Plus our offense is on fire. Even with Allen there as a threat, Rodgers and crew will light the field up.

Oh and they are playing at Lambeau. Do I really need to say anymore?

###

Drew:

First of all, I sent that email at 4pm on a Saturday. I don’t know whether to be proud or a little worried that you assumed I was drunk already. Secondly, I’m not answering that question.

Moving on, do I need to remind you that Christian Ponder grew up in Texas and played college ball at Florida State? This kid is made for outdoor football in Wisconsin during the middle of November!

Ponder has already started two games in his career, he is not afraid of some little stadium that is surrounded by a bunch of houses.

You say the Packers defense steps up at the end of games. I can’t totally say that’s not true, but let’s be honest, teams are throwing the ball 80% of the time. Pretty easy to play against a one dimensional team. At some point the other team is going to throw an out route and Charles Woodson is going to undercut the route and pick it off. Game over.

You know who has never come through in the clutch? Pretty boy and moonlight auto insurance salesman Aaron Rodgers.

He has a grand total of zero fourth quarter comebacks. Granted he hasn’t faced a fourth quarter deficit since the Vietnam War ended, but still. I will never place Rodgers as the best QB in the game until he shows me he has the onions to take a team 80 yards in under two minutes for a game winning score.

What does the weather forecast look like in Green Bay for Monday? Any snow? If not I’m dipping out of class, buying a snow making machine and spraying it all over the field. Have to make it hard to throw the ball. Minnesota is going to pound the rock, convert third downs, and win this game.

Give me one good reason they can’t other than “our offense has been on fire”. Every team has an off week. This is going to be it for Green Bay.

###

Amanda:

I know you’re in college, Drew. But seriously, put down the bottle. If you think snow is going to make a difference in a win or loss for the Packers, you are very much mistaken. There is a reason they call Lambeau Field the “Frozen Tundra”.

Besides, I wasn’t referring to the weather. I was referring to one of the most dedicated fan bases known to professional sports. Believe it or not, home field is definitely an advantage for the Packers, even more so than for other teams. When you get the crowd at Lambeau roaring, that will be enough to make Ponder shake in his britches. Not going to throw the ball? Doesn’t matter. You wait for our defense and the crowd to pump it up. You’re going to need more than Peterson to win this game. Who else you got?

And if you think we should be more afraid of your defense now than a few weeks ago, I think you’re crazy. Our O-line had new rookies stepping up for the last match. Now they’ve played, made mistakes, and learned. Are they perfect? Hell no! Who is? But they are going to make Minnesota work to touch Rodgers.

As for Mr. Rodgers, never coming through in the clutch? I’m sorry our offense likes to take care of business at the beginning of the game. Maybe Minnesota has a different strategy. How’s that working out for ya? This is how Green Bay is rockin’ and rollin’ this year. You have no choice but to face that as a reality.

Discount Double Check that Mr. Lange.

Final Score:

Green Bay Packers: 33 | Minnesota Vikings: 21

P.S. Anyone from Wisconsin would be proud to say they were under the influence at 4 pm on a Saturday. Just sayin’.

###

Drew:

Give me Vikings 28-24.

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

• Vikings-Packers Date: Monday November 14th
• Vikings-Packers Kickoff Time: 8:30 pm
• Vikings-Packers TV Network: ESPN
• Vikings-Packers Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, and Ron Jaworski
• Vikings-Packers Point Spread: Packers -13
• Vikings-Packers Over-Under: 49.5

Fantasy Football Week 7: Under-the-Radar Players to Consider

John Beck

Beck will make his first start of 2011 today against the Panthers. Carolina has the 11th ranked pass defense in the league, but they have allowed at least 17 points in all of their five losses this season.

Beck has not been a regular starter since 2007 in Miami, but he came into this season as the presumed favorite for the job in Washington. After Rex Grossman’s four interception performance last week, Beck takes over at quarterback, and he takes over a Redskins’ offense that is much better than it has been in recent years.

Beck has weapons in Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney, and also Fred Davis at tight end. He is a good pick-up to replace your quarterback if he is on a bye week.

Montario Hardesty

Peyton Hillis is likely out for today’s game against the Seahawks, which puts Hardesty at the top spot on the depth chart at running back for Cleveland. He has 143 yards on 40 carries this year, but he has only had one game where he was the starter. In Week 3 against Miami, Hardesty ran for 67 yards on only 14 carries in a 17-16 win.

The other problem has been the fact that the Browns have been running the West Coast offense this year, which results in passes on most downs. However, coach Pat Shurmur has hinted this week that the Browns will be pounding the ball on the ground against the Seahawks defense. Look for Hardesty to have a breakout game this week, while also recording his first touchdown of the year.

Dane Sanzenbacher

The Bears are going up against the Bucs this week, who have the 26th overall pass defense in the league. Sanzenbacher has the most receiving touchdowns on the Bears, with three, and is tied for second in receptions with 17.

He is becoming the main red zone target for Jay Cutler, which is great news for any fantasy owner. Look for Sanzenbacher to continue to be targeted in the redzone, and record at least once touchdown against the Bucs.

Fantasy Football Week 7: Stars Who Could Disappoint

Mark Sanchez

Sanchez is projected to have a sub-par game today against San Diego, and for a good reason. The Chargers have the second ranked pass defense in the NFL, with just over 179 yards a game.

Sanchez has gone two straight games without an interception, but that should change this afternoon. He should be able to throw for a few touchdowns, but his interceptions will bring unwanted negative points in the fantasy game.

Adrian Peterson

Peterson is owned in every fantasy league known to man, and those who have him on their team know how he has been having a down year. This is not entirely his fault, as the Vikings are 1-5 and are now starting rookie Christian Ponder at quarterback.

Last week against the Bears, Peterson only have 39 yards on 12 carries in a 39-10 loss. Once the Vikings get down by a large margin, they focus on the passing game. This week they go against the Packers, who have scored at least 24 points in every game this season.

The Packers will surely get out to a lead early, which will take away any hope of the Vikings establishing a ground game. It is tough to put Adrian Peterson on the bench, but it may not be a bad idea this week against the Packers’ fourth best rush defense in the NFL.

Larry Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald and the Cardinals are going up against Pittsburgh and their top ranked pass defense, which only allows an average of 158 passing yards a game.

The Cardinals are currently 1-4 with Kevin Kolb at the helm, and will most certainly fall to 1-5. Fitzgerald is usually a sure bet to get at least 60 yards per game, as he has done all year, but without any touchdowns he is doing little to help a fantasy team.

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Amanda Lawson:

Drew,

I hope you are excited for Week 7′s game, Packers vs. Vikings, as the rivals duke it out. Of course “duke it out” could be changed to
“Packers trample over”. And I’m not saying that simply because I’m a Packers fan but am saying it because I have watched both teams this season. Any slightly educated football fan is aware that the Packers have the upper hand.

Comparing the numbers, the Packers have had over 100 more yards per game (423.7) on average than the Vikings (310.8). With Aaron Rodgers passing for 325.5 yards per game, the Vikings don’t even come close to matching the passing game. Although now that Donovan McNabb is benched for Sunday’s game, maybe Christian Ponder can step up to the plate. Even if he was to “Wow” us, the odds of him reaching Rodgers’ level is slim to none. Ponder does not have the offensive line needed to make big passing plays like Rodgers can to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson. Even with injuries that put Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga on the sidelines, the Packers had rookies like Derek Sherrod and Marshall Newhouse to step up and protect Rodgers.

I will give your team credit for the rushing yards. Putting up an average of 142.2 yards per game, the Vikings can turn to Adrian Peterson to help pull them off the ground. I think everyone has to admit that Peterson is a beast. Unfortunately, they need a lot more
than just Peterson to win a ball game against the 6-0 Green Bay Packers.

Drew Lange:

I don’t know how I feel about Ponder starting already. To me, he’s not as ready as guys like Cam Newton or Andy Dalton. I see him struggling like Blaine Gabbert has so far. Personally I would rather see Joe Webb start. I’m just waiting for Ponder to go out and throw for 39 yards like McNabb did in Week One. How insane would that be?

At the beginning of the season, I would have said that a team like the Vikings were perfect for stopping Green Bay: Control the clock with the running game and intermediate passes, score touchdowns in the red zone, and to borrow a basketball term, make the Packers play a half-court offense. Slow things down, let the running game control the tempo of the game.

Unfortunately, the Vikings suck and probably won’t be able to do that. The offensive line is injured, which at least gives them a bit of an excuse to their lousy play this year. Ponder had to bail out of his drop step twice last week! He literally could not take five steps backwards without having two guys in his face.

The only bright spots for the Vikings this year have been Adrian Peterson, as you mentioned, and Jared Allen, who has 9.5 sacks already through six games. Those offensive line injuries you weren’t worried about? Maybe you should be. Chicago was able to slow the Vikings defensive line, but that’s because they employed six or more blockers on almost 70% of their plays. Does Green Bay even have a two tight end set?

I’m going to go out on a limb right now and say Minnesota will have the lead at some point during the third quarter on Sunday afternoon. How about that?

Amanda:

I think Ponder can manage more than 39 yards on Sunday. But if he didn’t, I wouldn’t be surprised. Not necessarily because of his lack of experience and talent, but because the Packers defense is getting more “spring in their step”. Clay Matthews was on fire on Sunday against the Rams. While his one sack during the game is only the second of the season, Matthews also managed to break up 3 passes, with one almost ending in an interception. The Packers defense was able to hold the Rams to a single field goal.

Knowing that our defense is improving with each game makes me certainly question how your injury plagued o-line will keep them from touching Ponder. To say the Vikings will have the lead at some point in the third quarter, definitely puts you on weak branch to make such a claim!

I’m not going to lie, 9.5 sacks is quite impressive and I congratulate Mr. Allen on the accomplishment. However, even with the weak Bears offensive line, the Vikings were only able to sack Jay Cutler once. Slow? I think they were able to effectively hold the defense. The score was 39-10, Bears on top. The Packers might not have the depth the Bears did to block the Vikings defense, which could lead to an interesting start.

However, the Packers have a knack for starting off slow and then adjusting after the first and sometimes second quarter. The Vikings might have Jared Allen, but do you think they have enough to stop big plays that would allow them to take the lead from the Green and Gold?

If the Vikings are going to take the lead during this game, it will be in the first quarter. However, the Packers will put on their game face and get the job done. No doubts.

Drew:

I played better than the Vikings did in that Chicago game, and I was drunk and watching The Walking Dead. I watched the first two drives then changed the channel. We even had two TVs up that night and elected to watch the Brewers over football. I also went on a mini twitter rant that may or may not have involved the E-Trade baby.

Seven guys blocking four should never give up a sack. The fact that they got one is impressive. That sack by the way resulted in a fumble. So let’s say Minnesota gets the ball first, scores a touchdown, then Jared Allen is able to get around your backup LT and strip sack Rodgers which leads to another score, boom, that could be a two possession lead right of the bat. Don’t think it’s possible?

That’s exactly how the beginning of the Vikings-Cardinals game went. Now of course, I’m not saying that the Cardinals are the same team as the Packers, because the Cardinals are just not a good team. But Green Bay runs a spread style offense which doesn’t leave a lot of room for max protection sets. Minnesota’s line has had their way in one-on-one battles early on in games this year. Even if the Vikings have a 14-10 lead at halftime, that still counts as a lead going into the third quarter! I would be right. I would offer some sort of bet, but I’m not a big betting man.

At least not with this year’s team.

As for the Packers defense, I’m not impressed. Yes, Clay Matthews is a stud, we all know that. BJ Raji is pretty solid as well. The rest of the team? Come on. AJ Hawk is overrated and is scared of Adrian Peterson. The secondary isn’t that great. They only gave up three points against the Rams. Big deal. Name someone on the Rams offense other than Bradford and Jackson. Not even I can do that. Plus, their line is worse than Minnesota’s or Chicago’s.

Amanda:

I wasn’t going to say it but now that you brought up the sad game the Vikings played, what makes you think they can play a better game against the Packers than they did against the Bears? I mean there’s a good chance you could be wishing to rewind to one of the 2011 Minnesota Twins games. As a fellow Twins fan, I know how painful that was.

I would suggest not betting on the Vikings being up. As much as I hate this picture, it is very possible that Allen could make his way to Rodgers, and even cause him to fumble. The Vikings being able to do anything with a recovered fumble is a whole other story. It’s not like we need the best players known to football in order to stop your offense. Yes, Peterson is a threat and shutting him down is key to stopping the Vikings offense. However, one talent will not be able to own the game. Football is a team sport.

The Vikings are far from the team the Packers are now.

Drew:

Vikings-Packers games are different than every other game. That’s just fact. I have no problem believing that the Vikings will be up for the game, especially with the game being in Minnesota. If Ponder can get protection, be a serviceable quarterback and stay away from Charles Woodson, the Vikings have a chance.

Here we go. Vikings will lead the Packers at some point in the third quarter, but Rodgers will inevitably take over. There is no way Minnesota can score with the Packers.

My prediction: Vikings lead at halftime 17-16, Packers win 38-23.

Amanda:

And mine. Packers lead at halftime 14-10, Packers win 28-13.

**********

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

• Packers-Vikings Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, October 23rd at 4:15 ET on FOX
• Packers-Vikings Announcers: Thom Brennaman and Troy Aikman
• Packers-Vikings Point Spread: Packers -9
• Packers-Vikings Over-Under Odds: 47

As soon as I opened up my big mouth and proclaimed that 2011 was going to be the most prolific fantasy year ever, scoring around the league plummets.  No worries.

At least I had a great week on the predictions front, as I was right on nearly 80% of my picks.

As always, here is a quick look back at last week before we move on to week 7.

Week Six Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness:  Peyton Hillis, Julio Jones

Overall: 30 for 38 (79%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Tom Brady, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Hernandez

• Misses: None

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 3

• Hits: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant

• Misses: Benjamin Watson

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 15

• Hits: Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Jimmy Graham, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, Curtis Painter

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4

• Hits: Miami QB, Mike Thomas, Scott Chandler
• Misses: Jahvid Best

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4

• Hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jermichael Finley
• Misses: Arian Foster (although I was VERY close…), Steve Johnson

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 8

• Hits: Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Tim Hightower, Ted Ginn Jr., Randall Cobb
• Misses: Jonathan Stewart, Mark Ingram

#####

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 7:

• Buffalo
• Cincinnati
• New England
• NY Giants
• Philadelphia
• San Francisco

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer – Tony Romo

Dez Bryant and Miles Austin came back off of injury last week and played very well.  Unfortunately, none of them could get into the end zone against the Patriots’ defense.  Week seven should be a different story as the Cowboys host the hapless St. Louis Rams.  I feel VERY good about this pick – when you can seamlessly insert the word “hapless” into a sentence and nobody disagrees, you know you are in for a good week in fantasy.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 380 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben got off to a great start last week before Rashard Mendenhall got rolling.  Look for Big Ben to have a big day against the very average Arizona secondary.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 295 yards, 3 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Jay Cutler – First of all, he just DOMINATES. Secondly, haven’t you been more and more impressed with him every week?  Tampa Bay is good, but not against the pass (27th in the league), and Cutler has clearly proven that he is an elite QB.  If Mike Martz really HAS solved their offensive line problems with the heavier protection packages, look for Cutler to dominate yet again.
• Matthew Stafford – Atlanta has the sixth worst passing defense in the league…and Calvin Johnson won’t be happy about getting shut out for the first game all year.  Big day for Stafford and Co.
• Drew Brees – He’s amazing…and playing the Colts.
• Matt Hasselbeck – As long as he stays healthy, he should put up some good numbers.  Plus, he’s playing the Texans who are in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass.

Projected Worst Performer – Blaine Gabbert

Rookie…who may not be that good…playing on MNF…against Baltimore.  Yikes.

Blaine Gabbert Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Cam Newton

Coming off of his first rough game of the year, Cam Newton would like to be playing someone soft on the defensive side of the ball.  Unfortunately, he will be facing the Redskins, who are sixth in the league against the pass.  Look for Cam to still get his points (running the ball and maybe scoring a TD or two), but not come anywhere close to the production he had in weeks one through five.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 230 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs; 40 yards rushing.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Seven:

• Mark Sanchez and Philip Rivers – San Diego and NY are ranked 1st and 4th against the pass respectively.  Don’t expect either team to really air it out in this one.
• Kevin Kolb – Isn’t it an amazing testament to Dick LeBeau that for years you couldn’t run on the Steelers, and as soon as the league turned pass-happy the Steelers became impossible to pass against?  So far, they are second in the league against the pass, allowing a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt.  Wow.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree that Tony Romo is a start this week against the Rams’ secondary, but it should be noted that I was VERY high on Romo last week against New England and he disappointed. I think there are some real confidence issues on the Dallas offense. Watch this game carefully. If Romo doesn’t have a big day with Dez and Miles, and Jason Garrett continues to be a conservative play caller, I’m going to start to worry about Romo’s fantasy potential for the rest of the season.

As for Gabbert, I think you’re over-shooting his potential. One TD against Baltimore? Only in extreme garbage time. (So I guess it’s possible…)

I don’t know if you opinions on Cutler and Cam will be popular, but I agree with them. Sound reasoning on both.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Running Backs

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

Monday Night Football against the Jaguars.  Don’t get your hopes up if you have a ten point lead going into Monday if the other guy has Ray Rice.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 190 total yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Ryan Torain

Torain got a lot of touches last week, and the Panthers are last in the league against the run.  Torain, and maybe even Roy Helu should have a very good game against the fighting Cam-Cams.

Ryan Torain Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 140 total yards, 1 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Whoever is rushing for TB – Either way, he should have a good game against a poor Chicago front seven.
• Rashard Mendenhall – Back to back productive weeks for the Pittsburgh running game, and finally a good week for Mendenhall, who has been extremely disappointing this season.
• Michael Turner – Detroit’s outstanding defensive line is surprisingly lackluster against the run.  Plus, ATL is trying to get back to their old, conservative ways.  Big day for Michael Turner.

Projected Worst Performer – GB Running Backs

Green Bay’s running backs aren’t good…and Minnesota’s rush defense is really good…and it doesn’t matter because Aaron Rodgers and the Packers simply don’t need to run the ball.

Packers’ RBs Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 65 total yards

Sit Em – Willis McGahee

The Dolphins will be thinking one thing this week: “let’s see if Tim Tebow can beat us.”  They will be stacking the box to stuff the run, and they are already great against the run (third in the league).  This is especially staggering considering they have been so awful this year and have faced offenses that have been conserving leads late in games.  Look for McGahee and Moreno to have very quiet weeks as Miami and everyone else watches to see if Timmy can beat them.

Knowshon Moreno Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 45 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Seven:

• Adrian Peterson – Green Bay is great against the run…and might be up by 60 points in the first quarter.  Just think about it.
• Rams’ Running Backs – Dallas is #1 against the run…and could be playing with a lead for most of the game.
• Jonathan Stewart – Washington’s defense is solid all over, and Stewart will be left out of the mix this week.

Jerod’s thoughts:

First off, just so we’re clear: DO NOT SIT ADRIAN PETERSON. Okay? Under no circumstances does this guy ever come out of your lineup. Is Green Bay a potentially troublesome matchup from a touch perspective? Sure. And are they good against the run? Yes, they’re pretty good. But this is ADRIAN PETERSON. Start him. Always.

Moving on now…

I would never tell anyone to sit Ray Rice, and you shouldn’t. But I am not nearly as bullish as Jon is considering the matchup. Jacksonville is many things, and most of them bad, but their defense is actually pretty good. Rice will find the going tougher than many might think.

As for Torain, I trusted him in Week 6 and he failed me. I still like him going forward, especially with the matchup this week, but just know that whenever you start a running back for Mike Shanahan you are taking on the risk of that running back getting benched for the hot hand. It’s just how it is. Still, Torain is probably a low-top 20 option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

He will be mad after being shut out last week for the first time.  Plus, Atlanta is ATROCIOUS defending the pass (29th in the league for receiving defense).

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dwayne Bowe

He’s big, he’s strong, he’s rested, and he’s facing a terrible secondary.  Bowe won’t disappoint his owners in week 7.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 130 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Mike Wallace – He’s a big play machine.
• Greg Jennings – He was left out of the shuffle a little bit last week.  Rodgers will get him involved again.
• Devin Hester – If the Bears run more 7 and 8 man protection schemes, they will have to utilize Hester more because he is one of their only receivers that is explosive enough to beat his man one on one.  Plus, he’s money in the return game.
• Pierre Garcon – His speed and size create matchup problems for the Saints.  Despite a huge drop, he killed them in the Super Bowl and he will do it again this week.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

I almost feel bad for the guy.  His team is terrible, his QB is young (and possibly terrible), and he will be facing a tough Baltimore defense on national television.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 30 yards.

Sit Em – Vincent Jackson

A little bit overrated…and facing Darrelle Revis.  Not a good combination.

Vincent Jackson Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 3 catches for 40 yards 

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Seven:

• Larry Fitzgerald – Dick LeBeau will make it his personal mission to ensure that Kolb won’t even have enough time to throw the ball up to Larry.
• Santonio Holmes – Rough week for Sanchez, the Jets’ offensive line, and in consequence, Mr. Holmes.
• Brandon Lloyd – Receivers don’t do much when they switch teams mid-season.

Jerod’s thoughts:

Yes, Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe should both off this week. Solid choices. However, I cannot tell people to sit Larry Fitzgerald. I know the matchup isn’t great and Kevin Kolb is a turd disguised as a franchise QB, but Fitzgerald remains one of the five most talented receivers in football. He can pop for two TDs any week. Play him.

I also am not a big fan of Brandon Lloyd for this week, but I do like him long-term. He is back with Josh McDaniels, and Sam Bradford has been yearning for a true #1 WR, a role that Lloyd can fill. Once Bradford gets healthy and the Rams’ schedule eases up, Lloyd could pay huge fantasy dividends. Buy low, and buy now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer – Jimmy Graham

He might go for 400 yards against the Colts’ defense.

Jimmy Graham Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 110 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Fred Davis

Look for whoever is playing QB for Washington to check down often and look for Davis on safe, quick passes all day.

Fred Davis Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 8 catches for 95 receiving yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘Em Picks at TE for Week Seven:

• Tony Gonzalez – Matt Ryan will look Tony’s way against the Detroit Defensive Line.
• Greg Olsen – Cam Newton loves him, and he will be one of the only guys that has a good game against the ‘Skins.

Projected Worst Performer – Visanthe Shiancoe

Not a good matchup against Green Bay’s linebackers.

Visanthe Shiancoe Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 2 catches for 20 yards

Sit Em – Dustin Keller

Once again, it’s very hard to choose a TE that will play poorly when most of them seem to be playing so well, but I think Keller and the rest of the Jets’ offense will have a rough game against San Diego.

Dustin Keller Fantasy Football Week 7 Projection – 4 catches for 50 yards.

Jerod’s thoughts:

It’s very hard to quibble with any of these picks. Jimmy Graham has a ridiculous four straight games with 100 yards receiving or more. That is insane. And despite injuring his coach in Week 6, I’m sure Drew Brees will continue targeting him incessantly this week and beyond. He’s the clear #1 tight end in football right now.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Start Em, Sit em D/ST

[Editor's note: As always, the D/ST picks are written by Jerod, not Jon.]

Start Em D/ST: Dallas Cowboys

Do you realize the Cowboys D is owned in only 47% of Yahoo leagues? Wow. When was the last time anything associated with the Cowboys was underrated? Folks, you can forget about the porous unit from last year. Rob Ryan has done wonders with this year’s Cowboys. Anchored by the spectacular Demarcus Ware and the emerging Sean Lee, the 2011 Cowboys D is solid. They also have a great matchup in Week 7 against St. Louis. Pick up and start.

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The New Orleans Saints defense hasn’t been great this year, but I like a blitz-happy D against the Colts’ Curtis Painter.
• Tim Tebow makes his first start of the season in Week 7. Considering his throwing deficiencies, the Dolphins aren’t a terrible option if the bye week has you desperate.

Sit Em D/ST: Minnesota Vikings

I recommended the Vikings D to a few people last week, thinking they’d have a field day against the Bears’ terrible O-line, but I was proven horribly wrong. So let me state the obvious to make amends: you don’t want to start the Vikings’ D against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 7:

• The Jets’ D has been shaky this year – don’t let their strong performance against Matt Moore and the Dolphins fool you. Facing Phil Rivers and the Chargers, who are coming off a bye and should have Antonio Gates back, could be trouble for Rex Ryan’s crew.

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That’s all we’ve got for you this week folks. Pose your questions in the comment section and we’ll be here all week to answer. Good luck in Week 7!

Don’t miss the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football coverage:

• Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice

Also, don’t forget that if your NFL fantasy team is struggling, or you’re just getting bored with the NFL, our friends over at Daily Joust over weekly college fantasy football games with real money prizes at stake. Check them out:

Like I said at the beginning of the season, gone are the days of fantasy rule by the RBs.  Of those 18 players, only 5 are RBs…simply a staggering thought to anyone living in 2006 or before.

Already frustrated with your NFL fantasy team or just up for something new? Check out Daily Joust, where you can enter weekly NFL and fantasy college football tournaments and compete for real cash prizes. (Keep your eyes peeled for our next freeroll tournament with Daily Joust…)

With the rise in scoring, it is getting increasingly easy to predict breakout performances for players…as well as increasingly difficult to predict who will have a bad day.  For instance, this week, I was 17 for 24 on my predictions for guys that I thought would be successful.  On the other hand, I was only 11 for 20 on guys I thought you should sit.  It’s just so difficult to predict who will play poorly when everyone is putting up record numbers.

Nevertheless, Jerod and I stand here undeterred in our predictions (as did Andy Bottoms in his Waiver Wire Pickups column).  Let’s quickly recap those picks from last week before moving on to Week Six.

Week Five Recap

• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Best Player/Start Em/Other Guys I Liked - (Hits:  Top 12 for QBs/TEs and Top 30 for RBs/WRs)
• Grading Scale for Predictions regarding Worst Player/Sit Em/Other Guys I Didn’t Like - (Hits:  13th or worse for QBs/TEs and 31st or worse for RBs/WRs)
• Quick Note:  The following players got injured and have been removed from the grading scale for fairness: Joseph Addai, Mike Tolbert, and Rashard Mendenhall.

Overall: 29 for 44 (66%)

Best Player Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Michael Vick, Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, and Jermaine Gresham.

Start Em Predictions: 4 for 4

• Hits: Philip Rivers, Deion Branch, Pierre Garcon, and Brandon Pettigrew.
• Misses: None

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 10 for 16

• Hits: Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Curtis Painter, Darren Sproles, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, AJ Green, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, and Owen Daniels.
• Misses: Mark Sanchez, LeGarrette Blount, LaDainian Tomlinson, Devery Henderson, Dallas Clark, and Scott Chandler.

Worst Player Predictions: 1 for 3

• Hits: David Nelson
• Misses: Cam Newton and Heath Miller.

Sit Em Predictions: 1 for 3

• Hits: Tom Brady
• Misses: Michael Turner and Vernon Davis.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 9 for 14

• Hits: Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, James Starks, Matt Forte, Wes Welker (Special exception…I said it would be a bad game FOR HIM and it was), Jacoby Jones, Jeff King, and Jeremy Shockey.
• Misses: Ben Roethlisberger, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Shonn Greene, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith.

Onto this week.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em Sit Em

Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Remember that the following teams are on bye in Week 6:

• Denver
• Kansas City
• Seattle
• Tennessee
• Arizona
• San Diego

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Quarterbacks 

Projected Best Performer – Tom Brady

He’s the best fantasy QB there is right now…and he’s playing against Dallas.  The Pats might score 60 points.

Tom Brady Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 420 passing yards, 4 TDs

Start Em – Tony Romo

Last week, I predicted that Mark Sanchez would have a big day against New England’s banged up secondary that was already below average.  Well, my reasoning was right, but I forgot one thing – that Mark Sanchez is awful.  Don’t worry, the oft-maligned Tony Romo should put up great numbers this week, especially considering both Miles Austin and Dez Bryant should be fully healed.

Tony Romo Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 380 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Six:

• Ben Roethlisberger – We finally saw the Big Ben I thought we would see all season last week.  He should have another big game against Jacksonville.
• Josh Freeman – Bounceback game against the Saints at home.
• Curtis Painter – I’m all in on Curtis Painter…and he’s facing another decent matchup against Cincinnati.
• Michael Vick – If he doesn’t play well this week…well…um…yeah.

Projected Worst Performer – Miami’s QB

Let me just put it this way: in the pre-season, Dolphins’ fans were chanting the name of a QB in Denver who threw for 30 yards in the first half this week before being benched in favor of Tim Tebow.  Don’t expect much from Miami QBs for the rest of the year…especially against the Jets.

Dolphins’ QBs’ Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 180 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em – Ryan Fitzpatrick

I think this will be a weird game for the Bills.  I think it’s going to be a little bit of a trap game (not unlike Cincinnati a few weeks ago), and the Giants will be looking to respond from their poor performance against Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst.  Fitzpatrick won’t play AWFUL…but there should be plenty of better options in Week 6.

Ryan Fitzpatrick Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 240 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INT

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at QB for Week Six:

• Matt Schaub – Not against a Ravens’ team coming off of a bye.
• Alex Smith – I think the Lions and 49ers will face off in a defensive struggle.  Plus, he’s been surprisingly very good against the blitz this year, but the Lions don’t have to blitz to bring pressure.
• Sam Bradford – Sophomore slump…mixed with the Packers’ defense.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I agree on Romo. The Cowboys are coming off of their bye, have their receivers healthy, and I’m sure are itching to put the Detroit debacle behind them. Plus they get the Patriots a week after they played a major rival. I actually think the Cowboys are a sneaky upset pick in this game, and for that to happen Good Romo must be on display.

Also, I don’t think Jon should get any credit for telling you that whoever plays QB for Miami (Matt Moore, at least to start) will be awful.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs 

Projected Best Performer – Ray Rice

He’s one of the best in the business…and he’s coming off a bye, facing an average run defense missing their best linemen.  Rice could run wild against the Texans.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 150 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 60 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Peyton Hillis

As you can see, I like guys that are coming off a bye this week, but Hillis should be fully healthy, and facing an Oakland team that could very well be emotionally and physically spent after the draining week that they just completed.  Look for the Big White Avalanche to run a lot of people over this week.

Peyton Hillis Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 140 yards, 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Six:

• Michael Turner – Maybe one of these weeks, Atlanta will get back to their roots and actually start running the ball.  Nice matchup against Carolina.
• DeAngelo Williams – I think he has finally shaken off the offseason rust, and should have a nice game against a banged up Atlanta line.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – He’s looked great in back to back weeks, and the Pats are trying to prove that they have some sort of running game.  Nice matchup against Dallas as well.
• Adrian Peterson – Always…I know…but should have a nice game against Chicago.

Projected Worst Performer – Jahvid Best

I don’t know if he’s not that good*, or if Detroit just doesn’t feel like running the ball when they can throw it up to the cheat-code every single play.  Either way, the San Francisco defense is great, and Best won’t be a big factor unless he can break free on a few screens.

*As I’m writing this, Best runs for an 88 yard TD against Chicago proving that once again, I’m an idiot.  My counter?  Take that one run out and what has he done tonight?!? And the matchup still stinks.

Jahvid Best Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 30 Rushing Yards, 30 Receiving Yards

Sit Em – Arian Foster

I know he’s really good, but the Ravens are allowing less than 75 yards a game on the ground AND are coming off a bye.  A lot of you might have a gut feeling that says to play Foster, and that’s fine.  But my gut is telling me that he will be bottled up early and often this week.

Arian Foster Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 60 total yards

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at RB for Week Six:

• Tim Hightower – He’s going to start getting fewer and fewer touches as the year goes on.
• Jonathan Stewart – Look for his production to diminish as his teammate’s goes up.
• Any Saints’ RB not named Darren Sproles – Just say no to them.  They hardly run the ball, and Sproles is the only guy that Brees really trusts on a consistent basis.

Jerod’s thoughts:

I cannot recommend that anyone sit in Arian Foster. In fact, I’ll say this: whoever is starting at RB for Houston is a must-start player until the Texans RBs put up two straight dud weeks. Even if the Ravens bottle up Foster between the tackles, which is in fact likely, he is a terrific receiver as he showed against Oakland.

And I would not start Peyton Hillis as anything other than a flex. Even at flex I’d be nervous. Hillis has been losing carries to Montario Hardesty, and the hard-line stance he is taking about his contract (which he needs to do for his own sake) is not endearing him to anyone on the new coaching staff I wouldn’t imagine. Look for Hardesty to continue siphoning carries, which kills Hillis’ value.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers 

Projected Best Performer – Megatron

Just pencil him in every week.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 120 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Start Em – Dez Bryant

I think that Bryant and Austin will both have big days against the New England secondary, but Bryant is starting to become Romo’s go to guy in the red zone.  He’s big, athletic, and has great hands.  He should take advantage of mismatches all game.

Dez Bryant Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 95 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Six:

• Mike Wallace – We finally saw the Big Ben I thought we would see all season last week.  Wallace will be benefactor #1.
• Wes Welker – Free points.
• Percy Harvin – He’s quietly having a very solid year for Minnesota despite all of the problems.  I bet you didn’t realize that he’s ranked in the Top 25 of all WRs, thanks in large part to his return skills.  He should get free often against a mediocre Chicago secondary.
• Jeremy Maclin – He’s been quiet for a few weeks, and I think he’s due for a big game against the Redskins.

Projected Worst Performer – Mike Thomas

Bad day for Jacksonville…just like every other day for their fans.

Mike Thomas Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 3 catches for 28 yards

Sit Em – Stevie Johnson

Like I said earlier, I think the Bills will falter a little bit this week, and Stevie J will have a tough game, along with the rest of their offense that isn’t named Fred Jackson

Stevie Johnson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 5 catches for 55 yards.

Other Sit ‘Em Picks at WR for Week Six:

• Julio Jones – He’s Roy Williams 2.0.  Or maybe Michael Crabtree 2.0.  Either way, it’s not good.
• Ted Ginn Jr. – Ginn is also having a better year than people realize, as he’s ranked the 30th overall WR.  However, I think it will be a defensive struggle against Detroit.  Bad day for Alex Smith = bad day for Ginn.
• Randall Cobb – Not many return yards for him this week against a team coming off a bye…he’s only a play in VERY deep leagues…like, I’m talking 20 team leagues.

Jerod’s thoughts:
First off, from here on out let’s just call the “Projected Best Performer” at WR the “Calvin Johnson Award”. Then you can stop taking the easy answer and be forced to pick who you think will be the 2nd best performer at WR.

As for Percy Harvin, yes he is very quietly having that solid year you alluded to, as in one reception for 11 yards last week. He only has 18 catches in five games. He’s not a must start. He’s a flex at best.

I think you are way too hard on Julio Jones. Yes he struggled in Week 5, but he’d had 100+ yards each of the previous two weeks. He’s already better than Roy Williams ever was, and Julio Jones through five weeks a handful of preseason games has probably already participated in more practices than Michael Crabtree has in his career.

Also, never mention Ted Ginn Jr. in a Start/Sit column again. It hurts my stomach to laugh that hard.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends 

Projected Best Performer – Aaron Hernandez

He’s back, and he would have had a MONSTER game last week if he could have completely shaken off the rust.  He’s the number one TE in the game in my opinion, and he should have a great game against Dallas

Aaron Hernandez Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 150 receiving yards, 1 TD

Start Em – Benjamin Watson

The Raiders gave up a ton of points to BOTH of Houston’s Tight Ends last week.  Watson is a good player, and should have a solid game as the Browns look to rebound after their bye.

Benjamin Watson Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 8 catches for 120 yards, 1 TD

Other Guys I Like:

• Jimmy Graham – He’s unbelievable.
• Dallas Clark – He has to break out eventually, right?
• Jason Witten – Big game for all of Dallas’ receivers against New England

Projected Worst Performer – Scott Chandler

I’ve missed on him every single week.  All of you should probably trade for him now.

Scott Chandler Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 3 catches for 15 yards

Sit Em – Jermichael Finley

I don’t love this pick at all…but I have to pick a guy in the top 12 to have a bad day and he’s my choice.  Rodgers has been spreading the ball out a lot, and it’s possible that Finley gets overlooked for a week or two.  It’s also possible that he catches three TDs like he did against Chicago a few weeks back…but like I said, of all the top TEs, I think he’s the riskiest play at this point.

Jermichael Finley Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection – 2 catches for 25 yards

Jerod’s thoughts:

Jon, you need to make up your mind. I distinctly remember you saying that Rob Gronkowski was the top tight end in the game before. Now you’re picking his teammate who is still getting back into the groove off of his injury? And what about Jimmy Graham? Yes, is absolutely unbelievable! He has three straight 100 yards, has the love and trust of one of the NFL’s most accurate passers, and has no other tight ends to compete for targets. Jimmy Graham is #1!

As for Finley, I’d never sit him (unless I had Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, or Witten), but the fact that he dropped a few passes Sunday night won’t help him out any either. He’s still a stud though, so I just want people to make sure they have a great alternate option if they are going to sit him.

And now, back by popular demand…

Fantasy Football Week 6 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Defense/Special Teams

[Editor's note: These D/ST picks are all done by Jerod.]

Start Em Defense: New York Jets

They are playing the Miami Dolphins, are getting desperate for a win, and their pride has been challenged. What else really needs to be said?

Other Start ‘Em D/ST Picks for Week Six:

• Pittsburgh Steelers – they got back on track last week and get to face Blaine Gabbert and the one dimensional Jags this week. Gotta love it.
• Green Bay Packers – their secondary has been suspect this year, but they get to face a St. Louis team in Week Six that, while coming off a bye, hasn’t been able to get into any rhythm at all. Also, Clay Matthews will feast on Sam Bradford unless St. Louis’ O-Line really improves.
• San Francisco 49ers – this defense is for real folks; not only do they stop the run, but the secondary is opportunistic. Yes the Detroit offense is explosive, but the 49ers are going to give them all they can handle.

Sit Em Defense: Washington Redskins

The ‘Skins D has been outstanding this year, and they are coming off a bye, and they are facing a reeling 1-4 team that cannot seem to stop turning the ball over. So why am I telling you to sit them? Call it a hunch. Andy Reid is still one of the best offensive coaches on the planet, and the Eagles have explosive talent all over the field. Remember, they may be losing but they’re scoring plenty of points while they do it. Plus, need I remind you what Michael Vick did to Washington last year? The Eagles are 1-4 and really have their backs up against the wall. I expect them to play their best football this week, and that makes them very, very dangerous.

Other Sit ‘EM D/ST Picks for Week Six:

• New York Giants – don’t let their reputation fool you, this is not a top defense anymore, and we know how explosive Buffalo can be.
• Chicago Bears – they are coming off a disappointing, demoralizing Monday night loss and face their nemesis Adrian Peterson, who is in beast mode right now.
• Dallas and New England – this game will be a shootout; stay away from both.

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Okay everyone, there is your Start Em, Sit Em for Week 6. The comment section awaits your questions. Let’s all get some Ws this week.

Surprising, I know, but that doesn’t take away from how completely and ridiculously true it is. Cutler has 853 career rushing yards to go with five rushing touchdowns.

I think it’s about time for Cutler-Payton comparisons.

Jay Cutler vs Adrian Peterson

Adrian Peterson can probably run faster than Cutler can, but can Peterson run backwards at the same speed he can forward? That’s the true question that NFL scouts should ask and determine at the combine.

If they had asked this question, they would have found out that Cutler can and does…with grace.

This just blows my mind. I am used to and admire the dominating 107-yard, o-touchdowns, plus one or multiple interceptions a game, and the 46.7 passer rating that Cutler works so hard for; but running backwards is not something I thought Cutler could do and do well.

For that, Jay Cutler, Prince of Dominance, I salute you.

Compare that run to Peterson’s against the Cleveland Browns:

First off, I highly doubt the validity of this video. There is no way a talented and feared team like the Cleveland Browns would allow the Vikings to be winning by 14. The Browns have never been that bad of a team.

Secondly, at the 18 second mark we see that the Cowboys are beating the Buccaneers in the 4th quarter. We all know this couldn’t have happened because having Tony Romo on your team automatically allows no good thing to EVER happen.

Score: Cutler 1 – NFL 0

Jay Cutler vs Peyton Hillis

Peyton Hillis may have more Madden covers than Cutler (can we get a petition going to get Cutler on the cover of Madden ’13?), but what he doesn’t have is the wide open running room Cutler has to run. It may look easy, but believe me kids, it’s not.

If you look at the replay of the run, you can see Cutler switches the ball to the opposite side the defender is on. Very smart move.

Now, if only Aaron Rodgers knew how to switch it up when it came to throwing the ball to receivers…

Disregard the facts that Peyton Hillis ran for 1,117 yards and 11 touchdowns last season, and the fact that he just toppled over six St. Louis Rams defensive players (I mean, they are Rams players; I, along with my 124 lb physique, could do that), and notice that Hillis had to work for that measly nine yards when Cutler ran 25 yards like a breeze.

Brain over brawn. Jay Cutler dominates!

Final Score: Jay Cutler 2- NFL-0

Jay Cutler’s dominant stats after four weeks:

• Passer Rating: 77.8
• Yards: 960
  
• TDs: 5
  
• INTs: 0 (NFL has STILL failed to fix the typo that shows Cutler having 4 interceptions. I don’t know what type of business the NFL runs, but it isn’t one based on truth and accuracy.) 

I wish I knew…injuries have just killed me…and I’ve lost each week by an average of 1.2 points. Just heartbreaking.

Some of you are probably in the same boat as me. Even if you aren’t, it’s the time in the fantasy football season when leagues are won and lost. Now is when we have to start making the tough calls.

Image source: AOLNews.com

Maybe you chose to ride Chris Johnson through the first three weeks because you spent so much money on him and “he is just too good to keep failing.” You can’t be stubborn any longer. It’s time to cut your losses and start doing the unthinkable…it’s time to start other guys that are just having better years, or maybe even cut someone you felt good about going in.

Don’t be afraid to admit your mistakes. The worst thing you could ever do is hold onto a guy too long, or keep starting a guy every week, just because you want to prove that you were right at the beginning. You may be 0-3, but all you need to do is get into the playoffs…then, anything can happen.

Let’s quickly recap my picks from last week and then look ahead to Week 4. Once again, “Start Em” guys are QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25. “Sit Em Guys” include QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25.

Week Three Recap

Overall – 26 for 45 (58%)

Best Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Hits: Tom Brady, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rob Gronkowski
Misses: Brandon Marshall

Start Em Predictions: 2 for 4
Hits: Rex Grossman, Santana Moss,
Misses: Rashard Mendenhall, Brent Celek

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 10 for 16
Hits: Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Ray Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, Dustin Keller, Tony Gonzalez, Owen Daniels
Misses: Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Reggie Wayne, AJ Green, Steve Smith, Jermaine Gresham

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Hits: Matt Cassell, Denarius Moore, Todd Heap
Misses: Colts’ RBs

Sit Em Predictions: 2 for 4
Hits: Jahvid Best, Dallas Clark,
Misses: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dwayne Bowe

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 6 for 13
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Kerry Collins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Santonio Holmes, Ben Watson
Misses: Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Darren McFadden, Packers’ Running Backs, Adrian Peterson, Scott Chandler, Jimmy Graham

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Matt Stafford
Stafford (as long as he stays healthy) will be a Top 5 Fantasy QB at the end of the year, and the Dallas secondary should provide little resistance. Expect a lot of points in this old-school battle of Thanksgiving Day football teams.

Matthew Stafford Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 375 yards, 4 TDs

Start Em QB: Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh’s appalling lack of commitment to the running game is one of the biggest surprises of this season. I’m not sure if their philosophy has changed (possible), if they have realized Mendenhall isn’t that good (very possible), if their offensive line has regressed yet again (probably), or if a combination of all three has happened (most likely). Either way, start Big Ben with confidence this week against the Texans.

Ben Roethlisberger Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 330 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘Em QBs for Week Four:

• Eli Manning – Lots of yards against Arizona’s porous secondary.
• Philip Rivers – Bounce back game after a lackluster game against the Chiefs
• Matt Hasselbeck – Expect him to play very well until the inevitable injury in week 8.
• Jay Cutler – Having a very solid season despite the storyline.

Projected Worst Performer: Kyle Orton
And you thought the Tebow chants were loud in week one? I almost feel bad for Orton at this point. A horrible game against Green Bay will about seal his fate and future with the Broncos.

Kyle Orton Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 180 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Sit Em QB: Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco has really come out with a huge season so far, and I actually expect it to continue. He has some very good weapons, and he appears to have made a “leap” of sorts. However, I just hate the matchup this week. The Jets will be angry and ready to prove to the world on Sunday Night Football that what happened in Oakland was a fluke.

Joe Flacco Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 225 Yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘Em QBs for Week Four:

• Matt Cassel – Minnesota’s defense is underrated, and I think they will finally finish a game.
• Blaine Gabbert – Obvious reasons.
• Matt Schaub – Troy Polamalu looks really fast again…this is bad news for the rest of the league.
• Chad Henne – After a ho-hum win over Kansas City, San Diego’s entire team will rebound well this week.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Adrian Peterson
The best running back in the league is going against the worst team in the league…and his coach will probably ride him hard in order to not blow another huge lead.

Adrian Peterson Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 160 yards, 1 TD; 65 receiving yards, 1 TD

Start Em RB: BJGE – The Law Firm
I think the Pats’ passing attack is fantastic, but Coach Belichik also knows that they will eventually need to be able to run the ball once winter sets in. A lot of people will be expecting a lot of fast-paced drives and big plays in Oakland this week, but I think the Pats surprise a lot of people and start grinding it out a little more. Look for the Law Firm to have a big day.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 90 yards, 2 TDs; 65 receiving yards

Other Start ‘Em RBs for Week Four:

• Brandon Jacobs – He looked fresh on Sunday, and he’s also becoming more of a threat out of the backfield.
• Fred Jackson – Big day for Jackson against the Bengals.
• Jahvid Best – Massive day for Detroit players…yet again.
• Michael Turner – Playing the Seahawks…enough said.

Projected Worst Performer: Texans’ Running Backs
The Colts had a decent night running the ball because they had no other choice…and Pittsburgh wasn’t really prepared for it. The Texans, on the other hand, will try to establish their passing attack first, and if the Steelers shut it down, Houston will find itself trailing early. Add to that the fact that seemingly all of their running backs have nagging injuries, and I foresee a rough day for Houston RBs…no matter who is lined up in the backfield.

Ben Tate and Arian Foster Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 38 yards; 44 receiving yards

Sit Em RB: Ray Rice
I know I have been burned by doubting Ray Rice before, but I really hate their matchup this week against New York. I don’t expect the Ravens to get an early lead like they did against the Steelers, and I’m afraid that Rice will only get something like 11 carries and a few receptions this week. If that happens, Rice owners will be in for a long day.

Ray Rice Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 49 yards; 36 receiving yards

Other Sit ‘Em RBs for Week Four:

• Daniel Thomas – I need him to do it again against somebody legit.
• James Starks – I saw Ryan Grant in person this week…and he looks like he’s COMPLETELY back from injury. Look for the Packers to gradually stop splitting the load between the two backs.
• Denver Running Backs – Green Bay might have the best rushing defense in the league.
• Cowboys Running Backs – If Green Bay isn’t first, Detroit is.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Megatron
After last week’s performance, I’m penciling him into this spot until he blows out his knee in 4 places and even then…I will need to make sure he isn’t in the lineup.

Calvin Johnson Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 7 Catches for 145 yards and 2 TDs

Start Em WR: Plaxico Burress
Once again, Sanchez really loves him in the red zone, and I think he will get a lot of chances against Baltimore’s good, but smallish secondary.

Plaxico Burress Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 5 Catches for 75 yards and 2 TDs

Other Start ‘Em WRs for Week Four:

• Reggie Wayne – Painter is his guy…and he’s in the starting lineup.
• Roddy White – Finally the performance his owners have been waiting for.
• AJ Green – He’s good! I promise! Buffalo is also a good matchup for him.
• Wes Welker – As long as their TEs are banged up and Chad Ochocinco is an option, expect Welker to have monster days.

Projected Worst Performer: Sidney Rice
One of those games where nothing goes right for Seattle. You know, like all of their other games that don’t come against NFC West opponents.

Sidney Rice Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 3 catches for 25 yards

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Minnesota’s secondary actually isn’t that bad. If you take out Megatron and one 60 yard reception by Best, Stafford actually had a pretty modest day against them. Well, Dwayne Bowe is not Megatron…and the Chiefs are awful. Bowe will be in for a long day against the Vikings.

Dwayne Bowe Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 4 catches for 38 yards.

Other Sit ‘Em WRs for Week Four:

• Chad Ochocinco – I just wanted to give myself an easy point for my record next week.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – Tough day for the Newtons.
• Jeremy Maclin – Just not the same player without Michael Vick, plus he’s injured and may not even play.
• Anquan Boldin – Revis Island.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
See above, Megatron.

Rob Gronkowski Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 12 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD.

Start Em TE: Greg Olsen
I witnessed, first hand, the worst safety in the league on Sunday: Craig Steltz for the Bears…and boy did he win that award easily. His biggest problem is covering tight ends, as evidenced by Jermichael Finley’s outstanding day. The Panthers won’t have a great day against the Bears, but expect big things from Olsen.

Greg Olsen Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 9 catches for 100 yards a 1 TD.

Other Start ‘Em TEs for Week Four:

• Jermichael Finley – He’s baaaa-aack.
• Jimmy Graham – He’s quickly becoming one of Brees’ favorite targets.
• Tony Gonzalez – Just a touchdown machine at this point. Even though I don’t like to chase touchdowns, Gonzo is almost good for one a game.
• Jermaine Gresham – Buffalo showed us last week that they have a hard time defending the pass, and especially tight ends.

Projected Worst Performer: Owen Daniels
Troy Polamalu is back to roving the middle of the field. This is bad news for Daniels.

Owen Daniels Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 3 catches for 15 yards.

Sit Em TE: Vernon Davis
Philly has done a very good job of defending tight ends this year. Besides Tony Gonzalez’s unbelievable catch on Monday Night Football, they have basically shut them down. Look for Davis to have a rough week this week against the Eagles.

Vernon Davis Fantasy Football Week 4 Projected Stats: 5 catches for 45 yards

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week Four:

• Heath Miller – Pitt’s WRs will get a lot more action this week.
• Ben Watson – I still don’t trust him.
• Kellen Winslow – Will be forced to help out with pass protection against Freeney and Mathis more than he wants.

Best of luck in Week 4! Pose your Week 4 questions below.

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Don’t miss the rest of our Fantasy Football Week 4 coverage:

• Week 4 Start Em, Sit Em Projections
• Week 4 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 4 Rankings

Because we at MSF try our best to get you our Start Em, Sit Em picks before everyone else, we have to take a few chances. One of the downsides to coming out with these picks on Tuesday is that we won’t know all of the injury updates that come out later in the week. We answer your questions and update our predictions accordingly as more information comes out.

However, a few predictions didn’t pan out this week because of injuries (either during the game, or because guys with nagging injuries didn’t end up suiting up on Sunday)…so out of fairness to me, we are going to throw out Michael Vick, Felix Jones, and Dez Bryant.

So besides those guys who caught the injury bug, I went 29 out of 46 overall…a little under 65%. I improved from week one…and that’s exactly what you should try to do from week to week in fantasy.

If you missed the $250 MSF Week 1 Freeroll Challenge at FanDuel, shame on you. But the good news is that we’ll be doing another one in Week 3! Details to come soon.

Click here to sign up at FanDuel to play the best weekly fantasy football game around.

Fantasy Football Week Three

Also, don’t miss Andy Bottoms’ Week 3 waiver wire advice!

Week Two Recap

Best Player Predictions: 2 for 3
Picks: Ray Rice, Megatron, and Jermaine Gresham (Michael Vick)
Calvin Johnson had two TDs, and Rice still put up 15 fantasy points in a horrible week for Baltimore. Gresham, however, was a complete no-show. Unfortunately for him, AJ Green announced himself to the world this week, and Gresham didn’t get a lot of targets.

Start Em Predictions: 2.5 for 4
Picks: Tony Romo, Shonn Greene, Jabar Gaffney, and Dallas Clark
Romo was an absolute “hit” of a pick…and he didn’t even play the whole game. However, Greene, Gaffney, and Clark were all lukewarm. None of them killed you if you started them, but none of them really went out and crushed it either. Greene and Clark both got TDs to salvage their days, and Gaffney had a solid amount of yards with no TDs. I’m giving myself 1/2 points for all three of them.

Other Guys I Liked Predictions: 13 for 17
Hits: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Darren Sproles, LeSean McCoy, Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Dustin Keller, and Aaron Hernandez
Misses: Kerry Collins, Devin Hester, Jacoby Jones, and Ed Dickson

Worst Player Predictions: 3 for 4
Picks: Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Thomas, and Brandon Pettigrew
Completely missed on the Auburn alum…and completely nailed the other three. I still find it hard to believe that Cam Newton is going to be doing this all year, but he is definitely worth a look right now, especially if you need a solid backup. Also, since I live in Charleston, SC, and am forced to have every single second of every Panther game shown to me on tv, I have to say I’ve loved the young guy’s attitude in both losses this year.

Sit Em Predictions: 0.5 for 4
Picks: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Santonio Holmes, and Scott Chandler
Holmes scored a TD to salvage an otherwise mediocre day, so I’m giving myself a half point on that one. Other than that, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Chandler were all misses.

Other Guys I Didn’t Like Predictions: 8 for 14
Hits: Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford, Colts’ RBs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mark Ingram, Mike Thomas, Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap
Misses: Matt Hasselbeck, Sam Bradford, LeGarrette Blount, AJ Green, Steve Smith 1.0, and Dwyane Bowe.

On to Week Three!

Just a little clarification… “Top Performer” predictions can be anybody…I can put Tom Brady in there every single week if I want to (and by the looks of it, I may just have to do that). However, “Start Em” guys will be QBs/TEs outside of the Top 12 and RBs/WRs outside of the Top 25 at their position (unless, for some reason, a lot of people are predicting them to have a terrible week and I disagree). “Sit Em” guys will be QBs/TEs that are in the Top 12 and RBs/WRs that are in the Top 25 at their position.

Again, the goal of this article is to help you with the FRINGE guys…any idiot could sit down and predict, with great accuracy, that the top 10 fantasy QBs will have good weeks. At MSF, we try to help you with the difficult choices.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit Em Projections: Quarterbacks

Projected Best Performer: Tom Brady
What? You were expecting someone else? It’s possible it will be incredibly windy in Buffalo this weekend…unfortunately, that is the Bills’ only hope at slowing down Justin Bieber on Sunday.

Tom Brady fantasy football Week 3 projection – 390 yards; 4 TDs, 1 INT

Projected Worst Performer: Matt Cassel
He’s been awful so far this year…and now he will be playing without his best offensive weapon against a team that will be trying to exact revenge after making so many dumb mistakes against the Pats last week.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week Three projection – 195 yards; 1 TD, 3 INTs

Start Em QB: Rex Grossman
This is a combination of two things: I actually really like what Grossman has done so far this year; and the Cowboys’ secondary is terrible. The possibility exists that Washington will be in for a tough game on the road in Dallas, but I don’t think it will affect Grossman’s numbers very much on Monday Night.

Rex Grossman fantasy football Week 3 projection – 330 yards; 3 TDs, 1 INT

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Philip Rivers – Always.
• Matt Stafford – As long as he’s healthy.
• Cam Newton – Home against Jacksonville…he should have a very solid day again.
• Matt Ryan – Big game against Tampa Bay.

Sit Em QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
This might not sound like a huge leap of faith, but Fitzpatrick is currently the fifth overall ranked fantasy QB, and New England’s pass defense isn’t exactly spectacular. Nevertheless, I really don’t like Fitzpatrick this week.

If the Bills end up trailing by 14 or more early on (I think they will), Fitzpatrick won’t have the time to sit back in the pocket like he did against Oakland this week. NE will get him uncomfortable, and force him into a few more mistakes than normal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick fantasy football Week Three projection – 230 yards; 1 TD, 2 INTs

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 3:

• Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler – (Relatively to what they will normally do)…I think the GB/CHI game will be a lot uglier than what people will be expecting.
• Donovan McNabb – Against Suh…yikes!
• Kerry Collins – Maybe the last game of his career.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Running Backs

Projected Best Performer: Maurice Jones-Drew
Mo-Joe should get lots of carries if and when Blaine Gabbert starts on Sunday, and he will probably be fantastic until he dies in week 5 due to being unbelievably over-worked for the past twenty years.

Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy football Week 3 projection – 140 Rushing Yards, 1 TD; 85 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Projected Worst Performer: Colts’ RBs
They are awful…and they will be playing Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to like about the Colts’ offense this week.

Joseph Addai and Delone Carter fantasy football Week Three projection – 28 Rushing Yards TOTAL

Start Em RB: Rashard Mendenhall
I’m really down on Mendenhall this year, but against the Colts on Sunday Night, he will haul a lot people back onto his bandwagon.

Rashard Mendenhall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 115 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• LeSean McCoy – Maybe no Vick…maybe tons of stats for the RB.
• Fred Jackson – Gets a surprising amount of yardage on the ground against NE.
• Ray Rice – Could be the overall top performer against St. Louis.
• Shonn Greene – The second of like six or seven straight great weeks for him.

Sit Em RB: Jahvid Best
I think the Lions will do pretty well against Minnesota this week, but I don’t necessarily love the matchup for Best. The Vikings’ D-Line is still solid, but more importantly, they have shown to be vulnerable in the air. Megatron and his friends will be targeted early and often…and for good reason.

Jahvid Best fantasy football Week Three projection – 45 Rushing Yards; 45 Receiving Yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 3:

• Adrian Peterson – Ndomakong Suh (you’re still starting him of course, but temper expectations)
• Darren McFadden – Not against the Jets. He may break one big reception, but otherwise, he will be bottled up.
• Packers Running Backs – The platoon is killing both of them…and neither will run well in Chicago.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start Em, Sit em Projections: Wide Receivers

Projected Best Performer: Brandon Marshall
Marshall will most likely be playing in an ugly game at Cleveland. Both teams will try to run the ball quite a bit in order to control the clock, and the passing games will be left out a little bit. That won’t be a problem for Marshall though. He will create matchup problems for the undersized Cleveland secondary all day, and while the Dolphins may lose, Marshall should have a big day.

Brandon Marshall fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 165 Yards and 1 TD.

Projected Worst Performer: Denarius Moore
Revis Island. Moving on.

Denarius Moore fantasy football Week Three projection – 1 Catch for 9 Yards

Start Em WR: Santana Moss
Moss is quietly having a very solid fantasy season once again. At this point, he is the 27th ranked WR, and he only has one TD meaning his value hasn’t been super inflated. He should have a great game against the soft Dallas secondary, and if the game turns into a high-scoring affair, Moss will get a lot of targets. Surprisingly, he’s still Washington’s big-play guy at this point in his career, and I expect him to break a couple on Monday Night.

Santana Moss fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 140 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Reggie Wayne – The only Colt player that will have a good week.
• Larry Fitzgerald – He is becoming more comfortable with Kolb…look out.
• AJ Green – I think he’s one of the top 5 talented WRs in the league already…and I’m not kidding. Just watch this. Plus, it looks like Andy Dalton knows that now as well.
• Steve Smith 1.0 – If Cam has a big day, Steve will have a big day.

Sit Em WR: Dwayne Bowe
Just a bad day to be a Chiefs fan. Cassel will most likely struggle, and San Diego will concentrate on shutting Bowe and the running game down. Last year against San Diego, Bowe combined for 2 catches and 16 yards…that’s the TOTAL for both games. Be very careful before Tasting the Dwayne Bowe this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week Three projection – 3 Catches for 30 Yards.

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 3:

• Julio Jones – I still don’t think he’s that good. He may break out in week 8, but he’s way too inconsistent to be looked at this early in his career. Just click on this article for proof.
• Jeremy Maclin – He and DeSean Jackson are just too inconsistent…but I think it’s Jackson’s turn this week to have a big week and Maclin will be left out.
• Santonio Holmes – Keller and Plaxico are options 1 and 2 in the red zone for the Jets right now. And Greene is probably #3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections: Tight Ends

Projected Best Performer: Rob Gronkowski
This is a no-brainer. Hernandez is banged up and will miss a few games. Gronkowski may go for 400 yards in this offense right now.

Rob Gronkowski fantasy football Week 3 projection – 9 Catches for 145 Yards and 2 TDs.

Projected Worst Performer: Todd Heap
There is a reason that Baltimore let him go so easily…and you should let him go as well.

Todd Heap fantasy football Week Three projection – 0 Catches

Start Em TE: Brent Celek
If Vick is banged up and can’t go, or even if he is healthy but playing a little more conservatively, Celek should have a big game. Currently, he sits 30th overall in the TE rankings, but Celek owners should look forward to this Sunday.

Brent Celek fantasy football Week 3 projection – 8 Catches for 85 Yards and 1 TD.

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 3:

• Dustin Keller – Quickly becoming the Sanchize’s favorite target.
• Tony Gonzalez – He’s still got a little left in the tank…I was wrong.
• Jermaine Gresham
• Owen Daniels – High scoring affair against New Orleans…Schaub will look to him often to beat the Saints’ blitz.

Sit Em TE: Dallas Clark
I just hate the matchup. Polomalu will be ranging all over the middle of the field, and Collins will be on his back for much of the game. Clark may be needed to pass block more than normal, and he just won’t be able to get into the game at all.

Dallas Clark fantasy football Week 3 projection – 5 Catches for 40 Yards and 1 Fumble

Other Sit ‘Em TEs for Week 3:

• Scott Chandler – Don’t chase Touchdowns! They will end up disappointing you.
• Jimmy Graham – One of those weeks that Brees finds everybody but him.
• Ben Watson – The classic “I scored a TD early and I look better than I really am” guy. Take it out, and you have a guy with 6 catches for 61 yards. Not terrible…but not a starter in a league with less than 25 teams.

Good Luck in Week Three!  As always, feel free to ask questions in the comment section, or on my twitter (@The_Dr_Twitch) or to our MSF Fantasy Twitter account (@FantasyMSF).

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Stay caught up with all of our Week 3 fantasy football analysis:

• Week 3 Start em, Sit em Projections
• Week 3 Waiver Wire Advice
• Week 3 Stats to Know
• Week 3 Fantasy Football Talk Start/Sit Podcast
• Week 3 Player Rankings at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D/ST
• Week 3 Sleeper Picks

Lions-Vikings Preview

For the first time in recent memory, the Lions head into Minnesota as the favorite. The traditionally putrid franchise has been one of the flashiest and exciting teams in the NFL, completely controlling both games so far this season against the Buccaneers and Chiefs.

The Vikings are traditionally one of the chokiest teams in NFL history, and so far this season they have shown nothing to change that reputation, blowing halftime leads against the Chargers and Buccaneers to lead them to a 0-2 record.

If the Vikings want to win this game, they need to get Percy Harvin on the field. For some strange, odd reason Harvin has only been on the field for slightly over 50% of the Vikings plays this year. Harvin is by far the Vikings most explosive player outside of Adrian Peterson, as shown by his kick return to start the season in San Diego. It has been reported that Harvin may be battling some sort of illness, but he is one of the toughest guys on the Minnesota roster, so I doubt that is the reason he hasn’t been playing much.

With Harvin on the field more, maybe Donovan McNabb will actually have a consistent game. In Week One he threw for only 39 yards. In Week Two, he had 228 passing yards, but again struggled to find any rhythm in the second half. I’m not saying McNabb is the only reason Minnesota is 0-2, but he certainly is atop the list.

The Vikings secondary also find themselves in McNabb territory. They have routinely given up big plays and shown poor tackling skills through two weeks, and Detroit is definitely not a team that you want to have coverage problems against. Matt Stafford has been healthy and dominant so far, spreading the ball around to Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, and his own “black Wes Welker”, former Viking Nate Burleson.

Minnesota does have some hope however. Their defensive line has looked fast and furious so far this season, with the only exception being the last eight minutes against San Diego when they had been on the field for practically the entire second half. Jared Allen looks like he has rebounded from last season, new starter Brian Robison has shown a burst off the right end, and Pro Bowler Kevin Williams returns from his two game suspension. If the Vikings can get pressure consistently on Matt Stafford, they have a chance.

Lions-Vikings Prediction

Best case scenario: The defensive line for Minnesota dominates up front, forces Stafford to the sidelines and takes advantage of Shaun Hill’s weak arm. Last year in Minnesota, Shaun Hill threw three interceptions in a Lions loss. Minnesota converts turnovers to points, takes the pressure off the offense, Peterson runs for over 100 yards, Harvin actually plays and the Vikings win 27-22.

Worst case scenario: Stafford and company continue their high powered offensive ways and completely shred the Vikings secondary much like they did against Kansas City. The offense continues to struggle and Donovan McNabb continues to check out of running plays, only to throw two more unnecessary interceptions. Lions win 38-20.

Official prediction: Minnesota continues to struggle and can’t contain the versatile Detroit offense. Peterson still rips off 100+ yards, but the Lions leave winners by a score of 32-20.

• Lions-Vikings Spread Pick: Lions -3
• Lions-Vikings Over-Under Pick: Over

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings Game Info

• Lions-Vikings Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, September 25th at 1:00 ET on FOX
• Lions-Vikings Announcers: Dick Stockton and John Lynch
• Lions-Vikings Point Spread: Lions -3
• Lions-Vikings Over-Under Odds: 44.5

Even though it is a small sample size, almost literally the smallest you could get, we can all expect Peterson will run for over 300 yards on Sunday afternoon right? Probably not, considering when Peterson set the record in 2007 his quarterback was Brooks Bollinger. I will never say anything bad about Brooks Bollinger (North Dakota native), but I think we can all agree that Donovan McNabb is a bit of an upgrade.

That being said, I don’t think there will be a need for Peterson to run the ball 30 times, especially in the first game of the season.

Vikings-Chargers Preview

San Diego comes into this game as the favorite to win the AFC West and be a Super Bowl contender for about the seventh year in a row. Same routine as always – Philip Rivers and the high powered offense, steady and balanced defense, weak division. Year after year we have heard this about the Chargers, and year after year the “experts” have picked them to be among the league’s best, and year after year it hasn’t happened.

If the Chargers want to be the team everyone expects them to be this year, they need to start off with a win at home against Minnesota. If they can’t, a trip to New England and an early divisional game against the Chiefs could send them into Week 4 at 0-3. And if any of us have been paying attention, the Chargers’ slow starts have become the most common and regular annual occurrence in the NFL.

A quick start out of the gate is key to San Diego’s playoff hopes this year. They have an early bye in Week 6 then have to travel to face the Jets and Chiefs before coming back home to play the Packers. An 0-3 or 1-2 start is not acceptable. This is about as close to a must win for the Chargers as a Week 1 game can be.

As for the Vikings, they don’t really have any high expectations outside of their own locker room. They went 6-10 last year after falling short of Super Bowl XLI in 2009. Brett Favre is out, McNabb is in. Brad Childress has officially been replaced by Leslie Frazier. Sidney Rice is gone, replaced by Devin Aromashodu and Michael Jenkins.

Realistically, the Vikings are probably an 8-8 team this year. Last year they suffered through the worst record in the NFC North with a quarterback corps which consisted of Favre, Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb. Luckily that 6-10 record means they get to play (the potentially sneaky) Arizona Cardinals and McNabb’s former squad, the Washington Redskins. Sounds a lot easier than traveling to New England and New York like they did last year.

Head Coach Leslie Frazier has stated his team will get back to the basics of football fundamentals – run the ball, play solid defense, limit mistakes. This Vikings team can do that. They have the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson, who will be running in a more simplified, straight forward blocking scheme this year under Bill Musgrave. This is also where Jenkins will hopefully make an impact, as he played under Musgrave in Atlanta.

Vikings-Chargers Prediction

So we have the Super Bowl contending Chargers against the middle of the road Minnesota Vikings. Chargers win right? Not exactly.

San Diego will obviously throw the ball a lot. Philip Rivers is one of the best pure passers in the league, and the Vikings have a secondary with a lot of questions to open the season, as well as an uncertain OLB position, which could become a problem considering the Chargers have a future HOF tight end in Antonio Gates.

Because of this, look for Minnesota and Frazier to do a lot of blitzing, not unlike what they did in Week 16 last year when they took down the Eagles. And remember that thing about Frazier wanting to run the ball? If Minnesota can control the ball, get some 12-play, eight minute drives, keep the Chargers off the field and have McNabb make a few big plays, the Vikings have a realistic chance at winning the game.

Best case scenario: Peterson has 120 yards on 25 carries, Visanthe Shiancoe and Kyle Rudolph dominate in the flats, Percy Harvin scores on an 80 yard touchdown, and the Chargers only have the ball for 22 minutes. Vikings win 31-23.

Worst case scenario: Philip Rivers only needs 22 minutes to throw for 400 yards and four touchdowns, the Vikings struggle to keep a drive going past the 40 yard line, Ryan Longwell attempts three 40+ yard field goals, Minnesota finds the redzone only once and Percy Harvin’s migraine problems come back. Chargers win 38-10.

Official Prediction: The Chargers are bringing back most of their team from last year. The Vikings have some big changes at important positions. With the shortened offseason, this tends to favor the more consistent team, which in this case are the Chargers.

The Vikings will be able to establish a running game, but will fail to keep a consistent drive throughout the game, giving the Chargers too many opportunities to put points on the board. Lucky for them, San Diego will get the season off on the right foot.

Take the over and the points, Chargers win 33-21.

• Vikings-Chargers Prediction: Chargers 33-21
• Vikings-Chargers Spread Pick: Chargers -8.5
• Vikings-Chargers Over-Under: Over

Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers Game Info

• Vikings-Chargers Date, Time, and TV: Sunday, September 11th at 4:15 ET on FOX
• Vikings-Chargers Point Spread: Chargers -9
• Vikings-Chargers Over-Under Odds: 41
• Vikings-Chargers Announcers: Ron Pitts and Jim Mora Jr.

Like I said before, it’s not that fun to draft Ichiro.  You know exactly what you’re getting.  (Or at least you used to know, before this season.) On the flip side, thinking about Jason Heyward’s upside gives us all visions of glory.

But when it comes to drafting running backs for your fantasy football team this year, save the “sleepers” for other positions.

Assuming you are in a 10 to 12 team league, or a fun weekly challenge game like FanDuel, and you have to start at least two running backs, it won’t be good enough to simply know which guys are in the top five.

Here are my top 25 running backs for 2011, along with some guys I think you should stay away from. The latter group is who we’ll start with.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: The “Stay-Aways”

• Mark Ingram – The Lockout will hinder rookies greatly this year.  The rookie running back slump continues, even though the kid has unreal talent.
• Joseph Addai – As a Colts fan, I think I speak for everyone else in Hoosier Country when I say, “You just can’t trust this guy.”
• All Other Colts’ Running Backs – If you need me to explain this one, you have probably never played fantasy football.
• Jonathan Stewart – Just a hunch, but I think the Panthers will try to justify spending a billion dollars on DeAngelo Williams…if only for this season.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Also a hunch, but I have a feeling that the Patriots are going to be high-flying, just like they were in their 18-1 season.  Expect a lot of passing, yards, and scoring…through the air.
• CJ Spiller – At this point, he’s destined to become a homeless man’s Devin Hester.  And in a league that no longer has kickoff returns, that isn’t a good thing.
• LaDainian Tomlinson – Eight steps beyond washed-up at this point.
• Daniel Thomas – See Ingram, Mark.
• Fred Jackson – I just don’t see the Bills leading a lot of games this year.  Their running game and Mr. Jackson will suffer.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #21-25

The boring guys who will win you games

• Marshawn Lynch
• Ryan Mathews
• Mike Tolbert
• Ahmad Bradshaw
• Shonn Greene

Ironically, these guys are all pretty similar.  Most of them like to pound it inside and eat up short yardage situations.  Expect all of them to be able to punch it into the end zone for you as well.

Of these five, Greene has the most upside since the Jets will likely be good, but Sanchez will still struggle, causing them to rely heavily on their defense and running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #16-20

Your “all or nothing” guys…that will win you weeks, and break your heart.

• Jahvid Best
• Felix Jones
• Knowshon Moreno
• Ryan Grant
• LeGarrette Blount

These guys are all on the same level to me. 

Best intrigues me the most because I feel that he has the most raw talent of the bunch…but as we are all well-aware, his injury history will scare many away.

I really think this could be Knowshon Moreno’s breakout year, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ended up as a top seven running back…though the QB situation will make his job that much more difficult.

Beware of Ryan Grant.  The Packers’ RB was injured for most of last season, and he will come back hungry, ready to show everyone that he is, in fact, very important to his team’s success.  Also, it’s probably a safe bet that Green Bay will be winning a lot of games this year, and Grant will be benefactor #1.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #11-15

It’s just not fun taking them, but you can’t let them slide past you.

• DeAngelo Williams
• Frank Gore
• Matt Forte
• Steven Jackson
• Peyton Hillis

None of these guys will earn you high praise on draft night, but they will all give you an easy 1000 yards, 8 TDs, and receptions out of the backfield.  Again, the lockout will affect a lot of young guys, players on new teams, and players with new coaches.

While Williams, Gore, and Hillis are all playing for new coaches, they will definitely be one of the foundational elements that their coaches are hoping to build upon.  Gore, Forte, and Jackson are about as “Ichiro-esque” as you can get.  Barring injury, expect solid numbers from them across the board.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #10

I have to place him this high, but I’m scared to death of him myself.

• Michael Turner

It’s possible he’s past his prime.  It’s possible that all of the carries the past few years have killed his legs.  It’s possible that Atlanta will become more of a passing team this year.  It’s also possible he has one more year left in him.

This is all I know.  Someone will draft Michael Turner in your league this year, and it will either make, or break his team.  I am scared to death of him, but I also know he could have one more good year left in him, and I understand he could very well come back to bite me.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #8-9

“Old Reliables” that may not be so reliable.

• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Rashard Mendenhall.

If healthy, both Jones-Drew and Mendenhall will easily be top-ten RBs.  Both of their teams love to grind it out, and both guys can do the job.  However, Mendenhall has had fumble issues in the past, and just how long can a guy as small as Mo-Joe stay healthy?

If it were me, and I drafted either of these guys early, I would take his backup late in the draft – especially if I had Mo-Jo, because I think Rashard Jennings could really surprise some people this year, if given the opportunity.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #6-7

The new kids on the McBlock.

• Darren McFadden
• LeSean McCoy

These two guys have more “home-run” ability than anyone besides Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and maybe Adrian Peterson.

McCoy will be playing in a high-powered offense that has surprisingly less weapons than you thought.  Seriously, they have Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and…yeah you thought they had more, didn’t you?  Well, McCoy will surprise a lot of people this year that didn’t take notice before.  He is one of the smoothest runners in the game, and can also catch the ball out of the backfield.

McFadden, on the other hand, finally seemed to figure it out last year.  If he is finally putting the work in to match his unbelievable talent, the Raiders could have a top five fantasy player on their team, easily.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #4-5

Don’t be disappointed with these guys.

• Ray Rice
• Arian Foster

We have all been there.  We get the fourth pick in the draft, and we love three guys.  Obviously, those three guys go 1-2-3, and we are stuck fuming to ourselves for the next four picks.  On draft day, don’t be “disappointed” with Rice or Foster.

Sure, maybe the next three guys will have marginally better years, but the fact is that in most seasons the difference between guys 1-3 and 4-6 isn’t really that big.  Be happy with either of these guys, and then focus on building out the rest of your team.  Nobody has ever won a fantasy league with just one guy, but plenty have lost it by not concentrating for half of their draft.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #2-3

The enigmas

• Chris Johnson
• Jamaal Charles

I think these are the only two guys in the league that could rush for 2000 yards.  They could also both get injured or, in CJ’s case, randomly miss a lot of time because of contract issues.  Either way, if things go well, Charles and Johnson will make a LOT of fantasy owners happy with their home run ability coupled with their coach’s love for the running game.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings: #1

Old Faithful

• Adrian Peterson

In my opinion, he’s still the best in the biz.