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Home » Adrian Peterson » Recent Articles:

Yet More Visual Evidence of Adrian Peterson’s Vicious Brilliance

I didn’t see this yesterday since I was tailgating, watching the Browns get trounced, and then in the air traveling back to Dallas…but oh my lord what a run by Adrian Peterson, who just destroys William Gay:

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Bryce Garner: A “Beast” Among Boys

Bryce Garner: A “Beast” Among Boys

With his rare combination of breakaway speed, violent power, and graceful balance, Adrian Peterson has made Vikings #28 jerseys a hot commodity across the country. Still only 24, Peterson should (knock on wood) have at least another 6-7 years of dominance left in him.

By the time Peterson is ready to hang up his cleats for good, another running back from his home state of Texas may be ready to step into his shoes.

Ladies and gentleman, please indulge me as I introduce you to Bryce “The Beast” Garner, Midwest Sports Fans’ #1 ranked 6th grade football player in America.

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MNF Preview and Podcast: Brett Favre Bowl I – Packers at Vikings

MNF Preview and Podcast: Brett Favre Bowl I – Packers at Vikings

patriots-bills monday night football preview - prediction - analysis - point spread pick - tickets - tv timeEditor’s Note: AJ Kaufman’s weekly MNF coverage on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

Sadler’s premium meats are perfect for tailgating on Saturday, for grilling out at home on Sunday, or for when you are hosting a group of friends, or even just the family, on Monday night.

With a variety of delicious choices (beef, pork, ribs, turkey, brisket, and more) and availability at grocery stores throughout the U.S., Sadler’s meats are the tasty, convenient choice when you want to watch the big game and eat well while you’re doing it.

Check out Sadler’s Monday Night Football Recipe of the Week: Sadler’s Smokehouse Baked Beans

Each week, you can also listen to the MSF Monday Night Football Podcast, brought to you by Sadler’s. Follow the link to listen to the MSF Podcast on iTunes, or use the in-page player below to listen while you read.

Panthers-Cowboys MNF Preview Podcast presented by Sadler’s

(FYI…audio player may take a second or two to load)


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Frank Gore Takes Aim at Single Game Rushing Record

One play into the 3rd Quarter, 49ers RB Frank Gore scampered for a long TD. The run gave him 206 yards on 12 carries with almost the entire second half to play.

Adrian Peterson currently holds the single-game rushing record with his 296-yard performance as a rookie. Gore needs 91 yards over the next 29 minutes of okay to break Peterson’s record.

Stay tuned….and go Browns!!!!

Video: NFL Week 1 Plays of the Day – Brandon Stokley Game-Winning TD for Broncos and Adrian Peterson TD Run for Vikings

Thanks to our good buddy Robert Littal over at Black Sports Online for sending us the links to the videos below, which I think are easily the two plays of the day so far during the first Sunday of games in the 2009 NFL season.

Video of Brandon Stokley game-winning TD catch | Video of Adrian Peterson stiff-arm and TD run against BrownsThe first video probably takes the cake as Week 1 Play of the Day, considering it won the game for the Denver Broncos. If you haven’t yet seen it, it’s pretty incredible. Down 7-6, Denver was backed up around its own 20, having under 0:30 to try to get into field goal range.

Brandon Stokley helped them do far better than a field goal.

As the video shows below, Kyle Orton tries to connect with Brandon Marshall, the ball gets tipped up into the air, and Brandon Stokley serendipitously snatches it and runs the length of the field for a touchdown. 

What an awful way to lose if you are a Benglas fan.

Of course, the play is made doubly great for football fans because Gus Johnson was assigned to the game. Not that Gus Johnson needs amazing game-winning plays like this to inject some excitement into the proceedings.

Video: Brandon Stokley Game-Winning TD Catch for Broncos over Bengals

The next play is no less impressive from a physical standpoint, but did not have the effect that Stokley’s TD catch had.

video of Brandon Stokley game-winning TD catch | Video of Adrian Peterson stiff-arm and TD run against BrownsAnd unfortunately it came against my Browns.

Adrian Peterson, simply put, is an absolute beast. Despite having a pretty ho-hum first half, Peterson exploded in the second half, especially during the decisive 3rd quarter. The Vikings imposed their will on the Browns and pounded them into submission with a steady dose of the NFL’s best player.

This run, which includes an impressive stiff arm, and then Peterson actually coming to nearly a complete stop as he jukes a Browns defender before accelerating to the endzone, is all the evidence anyone should need to realize that Adrian Peterson is just on another level.

Video: Adrian Peterson Stiff-Arm and TD Run for Vikings Against Browns

Browns-Vikings Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - ticketsI can’t wait for tomorrow.

The first game of any season is always exciting. There have been no losses yet, no unfulfilled potential, and no bitter taste on the tip of the tongue still stinging from the week before.

It’s a bitter, noxious taste that Browns fans are unfortunately quite familiar with and one that we were forced to choke down on a regular basis last year. 

What made 2008 such an exceptionally bad season was the fact that the Browns’ surprising run to 10-6 in 2007 had raised everyone’s hopes and turned them into expectations.

When hopes get trampled, it is easier to accept it and move on. It was just a hope, a wish, right?

There is always a recognized chance that a hope might not come to fruition, thus somewhere in the back of your mind, and in your heart, you are always somewhat prepared for a hope to fall short.

But when expectations are not met, it is crushing.

A deeper layer of vulnerability is exposed when hopes and wishes are transformed into full-fledged expectations. 2008 was a season that started with what now seem like absurdly high expectations for the Browns, but at the time they seemed perfectly reasonable. That is why the taste was all the more bitter when the team fell so egregiously short of fulfilling the expectations.

And now, here we are on the eve of 2009’s commencing kickoff with little to no idea of what to expect from the 2009 Browns. In 2007 we were supposed to be terrible and went 10-6. In 2008 we were supposed to be great and went 4-12. In 2009 we are supposed to be terrible again…

…and based on the experiences of the last two years, all it means is that we could be really good or really bad and no one would really be surprised.

So, on the preemptive bright side, at least there are no soaring expectations that could precipitate a painful fall like last year. But there also seems to be a glaring lack of hope as well, especially for a team in a league that saw 2007 doormats Miami and Atlanta make the playoffs last year.

I, for one, am actually relatively hopeful about the 2009 Browns.

If anything else, the complete lack of knowledge regarding what we will see on the field this year makes the season seem intriguing. There is a new front office leadership team, a new coach, a semi-new quarterback, several new players including some promising rookies, and a fresh 0-0 record all presaging, if nothing else, a new experience in 2009.

browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - ticketsUnfortunately, there is also the history of disappointment that has defined the Browns franchise; a history of doom, gloom, and frustration that the franchise and its fans cannot seem to escape.

I have done my best to turn the plethora of 2009 unknowns into positives, writing a few weeks back that SI’s Peter King will regret predicting a 2-14 finish for the Browns. Some Browns fans have jumped on my bandwagon of hope, as evidenced by the comment thread of this Plain-Dealer story in which a commenter by the name of “dawgmatist” linked to my article with the following statement:

For those of you (myself included) who will be relying more so on HOPE, rather then EXPECTATIONS this season, here’s a good article I’ve kept and refer to from time to time to help give my spirits a little boost as we approach our season.

And for the most part, I believe what I’m saying.

Eric Mangini has proven he can turn a team around in one season. Braylon Edwards and Kamerion Wimbley are talented enough to become the stars Cleveland needs to anchor its offense and defense. And the addition of James Davis plus an increased role for Jerome Harrison should make the Browns more proficient at running the football.

So…if I’m so excited, you may ask, why in the hell did it take me this long to get my Browns Week 1 preview and prediction up?

And the forthright answer is that, despite my overall optimism for 2009, I am not at all hopeful about this Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota. I didn’t want to face such disappointing thoughts until it was absolutely necessary.

Right now, the 2009 Browns season is like an early winter morning after a fresh powdering of snow. Everything looks fresh, clean, and pure. There is a chance that school or even work could be canceled. The perfection of the moment has yet to be disturbed.

But at some point, the snow will start to melt, cars will have rendered the streets sloshy and nasty, and the underlying and forgotten about ice might have made the roads unable to be driven on. Eventually you realize that the seemingly lovely blanket of snow is actually nothing but a nuisance that will wreak havoc on your day.

I’ve avoided this preview because I already know that once I’ve finish writing it, the figurative fresh snow of 2009 will have already begun to melt.

Before I delve into the three reasons why the Browns could win on Sunday, and the three reasons why they won’t, here are the particulars to get you ready for Sunday:
browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - tickets
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

And now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matchup analysis, getting the negative stuff out of the way first. 

Three Reasons Why the Browns DON’T Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – The Vikings running attack seemingly can’t be stopped and the Browns cannot stop the run

This is the A+/#1 reason why I see the Browns really struggling to even keep Sunday’s game close. All you need to do is look at the numbers from 2007 and 2008, as they tell the story:

browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - tickets2008:

  • Minnesota Vikings rushing: 146.1 yards gained per game (5th in the NFL)
  • Cleveland Browns against the run: 151.9 yards given up per game (28th in the NFL)

2007:

  • Minnesota Vikings rushing: 164.6 yards gained per game (1st in the NFL)
  • Cleveland Browns against the run: 129.5 yards given up per game (27th in the NFL)

Behind Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor, Minnesota will be able to control the game and the clock on the ground. I hope that the Browns are better against the run this year, but this is a hell of a team to find out against. If the Vikings run for less than 150 yards, I will be surprised. 

And it’s hard to win games when you give up that much on the ground.

2 – The Vikings are terrific at stopping the run, while the Browns struggle to establish a ground attack

The Vikings running for 150 yards wouldn’t be such a big deal if I felt the Browns had a chance to churn out 125-130 yards of their own on the ground. That would help balance out the clock domination and keep the pressure off of Brady Quinn, who is making his first ever opening week start as the  top tog on the depth chart.

While I am hopeful that the Browns’ running attack will be better this year, it wouldn’t really take much based on our ground “success” from last season. Once again, the stats explain this expected Sunday mismatch better than I ever could:

2008:

  • Cleveland Browns rushing: 100.3 yards per game (26th in the NFL)
  • Minnesota Vikings against the run: 76.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

2007:

  • Cleveland Browns rushing: 118.4 yards per game (10th in the NFL)
  • Minnesota Vikings against the run: 74.1 yards per game (1st in the NFL)

There was a little bit of hope when it looked like the “Williams Wall” might not be eligible to start the season. However, both of the Williams boys will be out there, meaning a whole lot of 1- and 2-yard clouds of dust on Sunday, and probably a lot of 3-and-outs because of it.

3 – The team with better players and more stars wins most of the time

This is a truth of sports that you could try to argue with, but you would have absolutely no statistical nor empirical foundation upon which to argue.

And on Sunday, the team with the better roster will be on the sideline opposite my boys in brown.

  • The established stars on the Browns include Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, a well-past-his-prime Jamal Lewis, Shaun Rogers, and an emerging LB in D’Qwell Jackson.
  • The established stars on the Vikings include a past-his-prime Brett Favre, Steve Hutchinson, Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and a potential game-breaker in Percy Harvin, among several others.

If we stacked these two lists on a scale, it might tip over and fall towards the direction of Minnesota, and not because of the girth of the Williams boys.

The Browns have improved their roster over the last few years, and have more talent than they are given credit for or showed last year, but have a ways to go to be on par with Minnesota.

Okay, now it’s time to transition from the negative to the semi-positive. 

I’ll end the suspense right now, in case you were even still wondering: I am predicting Minnesota to win this game, and to cover the 4-point spread. You can scroll down right now if you don’t believe me.

But the phrase “any given Sunday” is the most famous NFL cliche of them all for a reason, and the Browns winning a season-opening game over the Vikings in Cleveland would be far from the biggest upset in NFL history. If it happens, who knows, it might not even be the biggest upset of the day.

It’s just highly, highly unlikely.

But let’s assume the optimistic hypothetical for a moment, just for the sake of argument and for the sake of furthering what few semblances of hope we as Browns fans can cling to heading into kickoff tomorrow. What follows are three reasons (plus an obvious fourth) why the Browns could win.

And if they do end up winning, I can almost guarantee that all three of these things occur (especially the first one!).

Three Reasons Why the Browns DO Have a Chance to Beat the Vikings on Sunday

1 – Home field advantage

Here is some interesting reading for you stat geeks out there (you know, people like me): NFL Home Field Advantage and Team Strength, from Advanced NFL Stats. The post analyzes the varying effect of home field advantage between evenly matched teams and mismatched teams. The scope of the study is the 2002-2006 NFL seasons.

What the study found is that the overall percentage of games won by the home team is 57%. For teams that end up with the same record, and are therefore “evenly matched,” the percentage rises to 63%. Conversely, the home field advantage is reduced to 53% for “mismatched” teams.

Here is what I take from this, if we assume that the Super Bowl-contending Vikings and my beloved but undermanned Browns are, indeed, a mismatch: there is still a 53% chance that the Browns come away victorious.

Hey, I said this section was reasons why the Browns do have a chance. I’d say this quick statistical citation qualifies.

(See, I guaranteed that if the Browns would win, the first reason would almost surely occur. Well, no matter what happens, the game is being played at Cleveland Browns stadium, so I’m right!)

2 – The Browns’ porous 2008 rushing attack could improve to a level closer to 2007’s competence

As stated above, I have little confidence that the Browns will be able to run on Minnesota or stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. To win the game, they will have to at least exceed my expectations in one area. With Adrian Peterson in the Vikings’ backfield, I see very little hope of the Browns containing the Vikings on the ground.

However, I do think there is a chance for the Browns’ backfield to come through with a solid day.

The main reason for this hope, no matter how small it may be, is that the Browns do have versatility, and even a little bit of explosiveness, in their backfield. 

  • Jamal Lewis is no longer capable of explosive runs, but he can contribute solid short-yardage efforts and help wear down the Vikings’ front 7. He is also a capable blocker and should help keep Jared Allen away from Brady Quinn when he is in the game.
  • James Davis is like poor man’s version of a young Jamal Lewis. He has decent quickness to the hole, decent speed, and a good enough combination of elusiveness and power to make the first or second tackler miss. Davis remains unproven, but if he can run in the regular season similar to how he ran in the preseason, the Browns could have a new feature back for the future.
  • The perennially underused and underappreciated Jerome Harrison provides big play ability out of the backfield, both as a runner or receiver. He averaged over seven yards per carry last year and has the athletic ability to evade the Vikings’ powerful front 7 and pick up yards in chunks.

Now for a quick snap back to reality: the Vikings finished first in the NFL in rushing defense the last two years. Predicting that the Browns can break the century mark on the ground against Minnesota is foolhardy at best, and most likely requires some level of hopeful insanity. 

Well, I am not predicting that it will happen. Yet, if James Davis and Jerome Harrison are used more than sparingly, and come to play, it could happen. And I believe that with the inexperienced Brady Quinn at QB and only one proven WR on the outside in Braylon Edwards, the Browns will need to approach or exceed 100 yards on the ground to win this game. 

The Lewis-Davis-Harrison trio has intriguing potential, and they do have a decent offensive line to run behind. Maybe, just maybe, the Browns can defy the stats and the odds to produce adequately on the ground. If so, they will have a chance to control the ball, the clock, field position, and possibly put themselves in a position to win the game late.

3 – The Browns’ main defensive strength capitalizes on the Vikings’ main offensive weakness

I have already chronicled the Browns’ woes stopping the run. We also know that opposing QBs do not fear being taken to the ground, as the Browns accumulated only 17 sacks last year, tying for 30th in the NFL. For a little perspective, DeMarcus Ware of Dallas had 20 all by himself.

browns-vikings preview - prediction - point spread pick - tv kickoff time - announcers - ticketsHowever, there is one thing that the Browns do well defensively: force turnovers, specifically interceptions. Only Baltimore (with 23) had more inceptions than the Browns’ 22 in 2008. And it wasn’t one player dominating the totals, as the Browns got INT contributions from everywhere on their defense.

  • Brandon McDonald led the team with five
  • Sean Jones had four
  • Eric Wright, Brodney Pool, and D’Qwell Jackson had three
  • Mike Adams had two
  • Three other players had one

Sean Jones is gone, so his four picks will have to be replaced, with former Jet Abram Elam stepping in as the guy trying to replace them. Elam had only one pick last season, but did return it 92 yards for a TD.

Update: Forgot to check the injury report before posting. Eric Wright is listed as questionable, with Hank Poteat slated to replace Wright if he cannot go. So…please EW…be ready to go.

Also, just so you don’t think I forgot, Bernard Berrian is also listed as questionable for Minnesota. While his absence would hurt Minnesota, I think this game will be decided on the ground, making Berrian’s inability to play somewhat negligible. But it does offer one less way for the Vikings to attack Cleveland should Berrian not be able to go, and obviously would help balance out Wright’s absence if he cannot go either.

Why is this such a positive, especially against the Vikings? Well, you may have heard that Brett Favre is now playing QB for Minnesota. And you also may know that he is the NFL’s all-time leader in virtually QB stat imaginable, including interceptions.

Last year, Favre tossed 22 completions to the other team, and there were only three games in which he did not throw a pick. For his career, Favre has thrown 310 INTs so surely he will gift wrap a few for McDonald, Wright, Pool, et al, right?

It depends on which Brett Favre we see.

He played very conservatively during the preseason, and understands the greatness that lines up behind him. Though it goes against his natural instincts, I am sure that Favre and the Minnesota coaches are committed to him playing a more safe, ball control, game manager brand of football than he is used to playing. 

But can an old dog learn new tricks? Can a leopard change its spots? Can a Favre protect the football?

We’ll find out, but the historical evidence leads me to believe that there will be at least one or two balls there for the taking. If so, the Browns’ defenders have proven that they are capable of taking advantage.

Now the caveat: the Browns’ offense will have to take advantage of the turnovers, something that they couldn’t do last year. So we’ll see if that improves this season. 

Regardless, I’m just looking for reasons the Browns could win. Forcing turnovers is certainly one reason that we can reasonably expect, and there is no way Cleveland comes away from Sunday victorious without them.

Before we move onto the prediction, I do also want to say that a fourth reason for hope is the presence of Joshua Cribbs. He is capable of changing a game with one kick return, one forced fumble covering a punt, or even in his new purportedly expanded role on offense. By now, Browns fans should understand that Cribbs’ superb ability is a given, so I didn’t list it as one of my three official reasons.

Okay, now for the moment I’ve been fearing and avoiding: a prediction for this Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game.

You already know that my caveat will be that I hope to be proven wrong. While there are a few legitimate reasons to believe that I will be, I take my prediction responsibilities seriously and try to pick with my head instead of my heart.

If I picked with my heart and dove completely into the lonely waters of Browns optimism, I’d go 17-14 Browns. However, my head says the Browns just aren’t good enough yet, even at home, to overcome Adrian Peterson and the Vikings.

So while I believe that 7-9 or 8-8 is realistically attainable for this year’s Browns, I just can’t see one of those 7 or 8 wins coming tomorrow.

Official Browns-Vikings prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27 | Cleveland Browns 13

And now, in the interests of ending this on a positive, please follow the link to my aforementioned ode to Browns hope in 2009. The Vikings are just not a good matchup for Cleveland, but an 0-1 start will not mean that hope is lost for a successful rebound season in 2009.

A few other previews from our friends around the Brownsosphere:

*********

* – Adrian Peterson photo credit: Bryan C Singer/Icon SMI via Lester’s Legends

* – Eric Wright photo credit: Tracy Boulian — Associated Press via Washington Post

ESPN’s Current Top 10 Fantasy Football Players: Over or Under

Yes, not long now before every fantasy football nut is tearing apart the Internet and those extremely overpriced magazines to help them decide who to draft, when, where, why and how!  This year I am at a disadvantage, as I am passing on my knowledge to all of you.  My competition in the Midwest Sports Fans Fantasy Football League will be able to gain insight into my strategies and opinions, which for the most part are nails, and use that against me. 

Oh well, it is what it is, and you will still see me in the Super Bowl.

[Editor's Note: Kurt's trash talk has been left in, unedited, because...well...we all need a good laugh every now and then.]

Onto ESPN’s current Fantasy Football Top 10 players based on their projected 2009 stats through their point scoring system, and whether or not I think each player will over- or under-perform the projections.

T-1.  Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (288 Points)  OVER!!!  Even though I think that New England will run more this year than any of their previous three years, you have to have faith in the quarterback with the most prolific statistical passing year ever, which was only two years ago.  Brady has more weapons now than he did then, including a better running game then ever before.  The Patriots will, however, run more for two reasons.  First, to keep the defense honest and avoid heavy blitzes intended to either make Brady a non-factor, or remove him all together from the game.  Secondly, to remove some pressure from the offensive line in having to protect the greatest quarterback ever 40 to 50 times a game.  If healthy, Brady will have another 300 plus point season.  He is my number 1 overall pick.

Aaron Rodgers - Fantasy Football Top 10 Players for 2009T-1.  Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (288 Points)  Rodgers tied with Brady?  Under, but not by much.  Compare Rodgers’ weapons with Brady’s… that’s right, you can’t.  There should be no tie here.  Although Rodgers finished second among QB’s last year with 286 ESPN fantasy football points, the Packers will have to establish the run this year to win games.  Establishing the run is not only a quarterback’s best friend, but the defense’s as well.  Ground and pound eats minutes off of the clock, allowing the defensive personnel time to recover in between possessions.  There are several other QB’s that I would take over Rodgers this year.

3.  Drew Brees, QB, Saints (287 Points)  Over, and over Rodgers in my opinion.  Brees was the #1 QB last year with 311 fantasy points.  I don’t see him beating last year’s numbers, but Brees has been an owner’s best friend since landing in N.O.  I do, however, have a somewhat bad feeling on Brees this year.  Look back on all of the previous fantasy gods who posted incredible numbers over the past few years.  Brady, Peyton Manning, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Kurt Warner and on and on.  What do they all have in common?  After posting god-like statistical years, they came back and posted subpar years, if they played at all.  All of these players suffered from injuries or reduced effectivness the year following their epic years.  He should still be very, very good…but will Brees be added to the aforementioned list as a 2009 letdown?

4.  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (277 Points) Under!  I may eat my words on this one, but there are too many intangibles that make me see it this way.  Manning finished sixth among QB’s last year with 253 points.  You cannot tell me that he will have a better year than last after losing Tony Dungy as his head coach and losing Marvin Harrison, his record setting wide receiver for over a decade.  Not to mention, the loss of Harrison will place more pressure on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez.  Wayne often made double team attempts look stupid last year, but Gonzalez’s stats suffered when he was not burning slow safties out of the slot position.  And will Joseph Addai return to his 2007 form?  He must improve upon last year’s numbers to help Manning.  Peyton Manning is the smartest quarterback in the league, but is he smart enough to make up for all of these key losses?  Time will tell.

5.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (272 Points)  Push.  Peterson, even with injuries, finished third among RBs last year with 237 points.  Their offense will be more productive this year regardless who is at QB. Farve, Jackson or Rosenfels will be able to produce in this offense, which will open up the door for A Pete.  I take Peterson after Brady and Brees.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (252 Points) Under.  There are questions surrounding MJD now that he has no Fred Taylor to spell him.  They formed a great 1-2 punch, and Jones-Drew has flourished in his role as a change-of-pace back.  Also, will David Garrard return to 2007 form?  If the box is stacked on MJD, he will not be successful.  Will he still be on special teams?  If so, the physical toll could hurt him offensively as the season goes along.  I would take several backs over MJD, starting with Michael Turner.

7.  Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (250 Points)  Under.  Warner had 265 fantasy points last year.  At 38 years old, can he repeat that this year?  I think not.  At some point, Matt Lienhart will have to see the field become an actual NFL QB (he already has the salary and ego) and earn his ridiculous paycheck.  More importantly, can Warner stay healthy for a full season?  Will Arizona ever figure out how to run the ball?  Edgerrin James looked incredible on the ground in the playoffs, but that was to prove a point.  Without him on the roster, will they ever get more than .2 yards per carry out of touchdown monster Tim Hightower?  I avoid Kurt Warner in the first three rounds this year for these reasons.
Matt Cassel - Fantasy Football 2009 Top 10 Players
8.  Matt Cassel, QB, Cheifs (247 points)  UNDER, UNDER, UNDER.  Have you lost your minds?  He scored 238 points last year with more weapons than a naval ship…more nukes than North Korea!  How can anyone possibly score more points on what has been a dismal Kansas City offense?  Cassell will make them better, and Dwayne Bowe’s stock goes way up with his addition, but New England’s offensive talent versus Kansas City’s talent, not to mention offensive line comparisons, is like comparing….well, never mind.  You get the picture.

T-9.  LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  I take several players over LT, including the other two that ESPN had him tied with, just because they both have a greater upside than LT.  I do think he will benefit from Sproles getting more carries, as this combo could mirror the one-two punch that the Titans and Jaguars displayed last year.  LT only had 216 fantasy points last year, and even though his best years are behind him, if healthy, LT is still a top-5 running back.

T-9.  Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (246 Points)  Over.  Romo had 208 fantasy points last year while missing 4 games.  Romo lost a migraine when T.O. landed in Buffalo, and still his a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Romo is in my top 10, and much higher than number 9.  Romo rebounds after the Terrell Owens brick!

T-9.  Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers (246 Points)  Push.  Rivers had 279 points last year, and benefited greatly from the Chargers’ inability to run the ball.  This will not be the case this year, and ESPN adjusted his numbers accordingly.  Rivers is still a no brainer though if available in the first round.

There was ESPN’s top 10 (11).  I am lost as to how Michael Turner and Jay Cutler were left off of this list.  And more importantly, how ESPN has David Garrard at #17.  There are at least 60 players I would take over Garrard.  I will say this about Garrard: he must produce this year to save his head coach’s job, now two years removed from his punting on long time starter Byron Leftwich.  Jack Del Rio may be sent packing if the Jags do not find themselves playing in late January. 

Getting back on track, Michael Turner is an absolute beast, and is arguably the best back in the NFL going into this season.  And Jay Cutler is going to play with such a large chip on his shoulder, he will only make those around him better, and has something he did not have in Denver: talented tight ends!

Want more info to follow heading into and throughout the season, I am now on facebook and twitter.

http://twitter.com/fraschettik

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/profootball.insight

Kurt Fraschetti

Senior Fantasy Football Writer-MidwestSportsFans.com

Bears-Vikings Preview – Playoff Outlook Hazy for Chicago

Chicago BearsSo, I’ve been sleeping on this Bears’ team, I know.

Well, after the Packers game I had no words. JRod emailed me asking, “Dude, what happened out there?” All I could say was, “Finally, this team is playing like I expected them to.”

With that said, the NFC North is clearly still up for grabs. The Lions are terrible, the Vikings are okay, I guess, the Packers are not that good…well, they might be. No one knows. That means that the Bears control their own destiny at this point. We could sneak a division title if three things happen: beat the Vikings this weekend, beat the Pack at home and grab a win over Jacksonville. But then again, we could flop and play “like I expected them to.”

We need the three wins. To keep the Pack out of it we have to split the series. We can’t split with Minnesota and we have to have at least 9 wins to really sew this thing up.

Sure they could run the table and beat the Saints and the Texans, too. That might be nice but Drew Brees is superhuman and if Matt Schaub is healthy, then those games will be a wash, I can’t see a W in either. The three other Ws I want to see are a bit blurry, too, but not out of reach.

Let’s focus on this upcoming weekend, though. Really that’s the first step, “One game at a time” just like the press conference script says.

Minnesota got a huge win this weekend over Jacksonville, scoring 30 points. The running game had 2 touchdowns, the defense had one and picked up five turnovers. They are rolling, coming into a huge Sunday night game.The Bears’ come off a solid win where they played great “Bears” football – running the ball down people’s throats, getting into the backfield with the front four and creating opportunities on special teams, we didn’t show a juggernaut offense, though, over the sputtering Rams.

Last time, in order to beat them we had to score 48 points. If the Vikes give up some big plays and cough up the ball, then we’ll be fine. If not, I’ll start wondering how many yards Adrian Peterson could possibly get in just 3 quarters, I’ll set the over-under at 130. He has scored 7 touchdowns in 3 career games against theAdrian Peterson - Bears-Vikings Preview Bears.

We can’t stop him. He is literally a Viking. A bloodthirsty, charging, horned beast that stops at nothing, consuming men with reckless embarrassment left in his wake. I imagine he doesn’t wear fur or own a goblet but then again I could be wrong. Nelly does, people do.

Goblets and Nelly aside, stopping AP this weekend could be the determining factor in the Bears’ season. At Soldier Field in October AP had 122 yards, 2 TDs and went for over 5 each time he touched the ball. If the Bears can’t create those “wildcard” points, as I call them, through special teams, INTs and turnovers, the offense may not be able to match the running game in the Metrodome. (see note)

NOTE: The Metrodome is a damn deathtrap of a place, I’m beginning to think of the Sox trip to Minnesota at the end of the season this summer. One that seemed it would determine whether or not we would go to the playoffs. We got shelled. I don’t trust that building at all. Could be the same this weekend. We put our playoff fate in the hands of our team that we can’t always trust, against a divisional rival breathing down our neck, in a building that should be burnt down. It’s shaky at best.

Here’s the game plan. Stop the rush. Create third and long and get to Gus. He does not have the mobility that he needs if our front four show up. They have to own the line, bat down balls and create some mayhem, stopping rhythm. As for the offensive side of the ball. We have to convert third downs. Against the Rams, we went 4-12. 3-12 against the Pack, 3-14, against the Titans and 5-15 against the Lions. That’s terrible. You cannot expect to beat a running team if you give them ball back 75% of the time. Sunday night we need sustained drives, chewing some clock, keep the defense rested and we could scrape one out. Again, shaky at best.

Folks, I’m not gonna’ lie. This could be an awesome game or just terrible. The reality is that the NFC North is a mess and the Bears like it that way. It suits our terrible inconsistencies.

The only thing we know for sure about the NFC north is that no one wants to watch the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Not even Lions’ fans. But that’s just science.

So, it’s one game at a time for Lovie and the boys. One game that starts on Sunday night at 7.

Chicago Bears Beat Minnesota Vikings 48-41 | Defensive Issues Remain for Lovie Smith

chicago bearsIt was a win, but I would feel comfortable saying that it was not good win. There were certainly bright spots for the Bears this afternoon in Soldier Field, special teams, turnovers and offense all generated scoring chances and points. The defense did, also, finish the game. Things that were off beat and players needed to step up for the Bears to have the complete game they were looking for after a disappointing loss to the Falcons last week, and they did. Orton had a breakout game, the special teams scored twice and there were 4 interceptions.

“Kaner, with all the positives, what’s the problem?” 41 is the number that’s a problem. How do you let a team who turns the ball over 6 times still score 41 points? The Bears got a W and that was on account of a great team effort, the defense however did not impress consistently. To give up 7 scoring drives and 439 yards of total offense, you should lose that football game. But the Vikings beat them to the punch making mistake after mistake.

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