.331!

For the record, the legal limit in Florida is .08.

Dude.

Image source: WESH.com

For comparison’s sake, here is how drunk Curtis Leskanic was while one of his daughters slept in the passenger seat:

The legal blood alcohol limit in Florida is just slightly higher than Adam Dunn’s 2011 batting average against lefties. Hell, Dunn’s overall batting average is twice the legal limit. Yet Curtis Leskanic’s BAL when pulled over equals the career batting averages of Albert Pujols, Stan Musial, and Ichiro.

Nothing can illustrate Leskanic’s extreme intoxication level more than that.

Listen:

How to subscribe to the MSF QuickCast

• Subscribe to the MSF QuickCast on iTunes.
• Join the MSF QuickCast Email Digest to get an email whenever a new quickcast is posted
• Follow the MSF QuickCast on Twitter or via RSS to get updates as soon as new quickcasts are posted.
• Download this quickcast in mp3 format for later: Right-click this link, then hit “save link as”

For those who would rather read than listen, here is the transcript:

“All In” White Sox Can (and Should) Improve Their Hand

It is no secret that the mantra for the 2011 Chicago White Sox has been “all in.”

Through 98 games though, things haven’t exactly gone as planned on the South Side.

But that does not mean it is time to abandon the “all in” mindset. It just means the White Sox need to look in the mirror and make sure they have a prudent “all in” thought process to salvage the next 64 games and fight their way into the playoffs.

You see, in poker there are three reasons to go all in.

First, you can go all in when you are short stacked. This is the term for when you have the fewest chips at the table. This all-in strategy is a desperate attempt to stay alive by hoping luck can help you double or triple the few assets you have left. A second reason to go all-in is because you believe you have the best hand at the table, so you have little fear of losing. Neither of these best describes the White Sox all-in strategy before the season started.

The third reason to go all in is when you are pot-committed, meaning you’ve bet so much in the hand already, and the pot total is so large, that it makes sense to see it through. This reason, being pot-committed, is why the White Sox went all in.

After the Peavy, Jackson, and Rios transactions of the last two years, the White Sox had clearly sacrificed the future to win now. Not signing Paul Konerko or making a big splash with a guy like Adam Dunn would not have made sense. If you’ve sacrificed the future to win now, damnit, you better win now.

So while the Peavy, Jackson, and Rios transactions all may have been irrational, ill-advised moves (which they all probably were), they essentially made the White Sox pot-committed to 2011, so pushing the chips to the middle in the offseason made sense.

With a roster full of hungry veterans led by the World Series experience of Paulie, Buehrle, AJ, and Ozzie, and seemingly more questions surrounding the other AL Central teams heading into the season, 2011 was clearly a promising one on the South Side, and going “all in” not only made sense, it seemed like a pitch perfect rallying cry. And despite the team’s struggles, it still is.

With the trade deadline approaching, now is absolutely not the time for the White Sox to wave any white flags or suddenly look towards the future. As bad as things have been, the Sox sit just five games out with plenty of series left against AL Central opponents and the starting and relief pitching to suggest that a strong finish is possible.

But now is absolutely the time to make to make any possible bold moves to impact the here and now. It is the time to shake things up and create a spark, especially in the lineup.

You see, the White Sox may be all in, but they haven’t played all their cards. A baseball season is not so much a game of Texas Hold ‘Em as it is a hand of 5-card draw. So while the Sox may have pushed their chips to the middle, they still have a chance to trade a few cards in and hope the new cards fit a little better.

And I think everyone knows what cards need to be traded in: the deleterious duo of Adam Dunn and Alex Rios.

Rios has not had an OPS higher than .750 since May of last year, and his OPS’s by month since then are: .735, .712, .645, .480, .630, .685, and currently .418 in July. At this point, I’m not even sure divine intervention can turn Rios back into a productive hitter. Certainly Greg Walker and Ozzie Guillen can’t.

As for Dunn, his struggles need not be discussed in specifics. Instead, here is audio of a dying cow.

The remarkable thing is that while the White Sox moribund farm system has very little to offer, the two highest performing players it does have play exactly the positions Dunn and Rios do.

Dayan Viciedo has hit 16 home runs and is slugging .507 at AAA Charlotte. And he has the body and defensive acumen that fit perfectly in a DH role. Viciedo’s teammate Alejandro de Aza plays a solid center field, is also slugging over .500, gets on base at a .384 clip, and has 22 stolen bases. Not only could he step in for Rios, he is probably even a better leadoff option than Juan Pierre.

Are Viciedo and de Aza guaranteed to maintain these levels of production in the big leagues? Of course not. But both have big league experience, and if they’re even 60% as good as they’ve been at AAA, a decent bet, they’ll be better than Dunn and Rios have been.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. The White Sox as currently constructed are a sub-.500 team, with a plenty large enough sample size to judge on, so why keep trotting the same group out there?

The White Sox may be “all in” in terms of money and chips, but they are not “all in” in terms of moves and options. In poker, if you bet strongly but then follow it up with weak, passive bets, you’ll get eaten alive. But if you strongly and stay bold, you give yourself a fighting chance.

I know that Alex Rios and Adam Dunn are making big money, but they’re also wasting at bats while showing no signs of turning things around. The White Sox may not have much flexibility, but the two best options they do have could immediately replace the two heaviest anchors on a ship that simply can’t seem to set sail.

If the White Sox really are “all in” – and they are – then now is not the time to worry about feelings or the chips that are already in the middle. Rios and Dunn will make their millions whether they hit or not, whether they play or not, and whether the White Sox win or not.

This season is far from over, but now is not the time for blind hope when obvious action can be taken. The White Sox may end up all out at the end of this “all in” season, but they better at least play all their cards. Otherwise, what the hell was the point in playing the hand in the first place?

The money shot comes at the 0:54 mark:

What do you think Adam?

I figured I might as well do occasional updates — especially here at midseason —  on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera:

Top 10 in the three major offensive categories, and as a bonus, only 51 strikeouts. That’s what makes a  great ballplayer. And still, few notice him amongst the Jose Bautistas, Paul Konerkos, Adrian Gonzalezes and Curtis Grandersons of the AL world who garner our attention. Cabrera’s a legit MVP contender again — though right now Bautista is the best hitter on earth. {Grade so far on my prediction: PASS }

Paul Konerko:

After his All-Star snubbing, need I even expound upon how underrated Pauly continues to be? Yes, because there are people who actually think Ryan Howard is a better player, despite Konerko being better in nearly every category, and by a long shot in most. Howard will never get 2000 hits, and 400 HRs is questionable. Konerko, just three years older than Howard, will roll past those milestones later this season. And unlike Howard and most others, the White Sox first baseman somehow gets better with age. {Grade: PASS}

Adam Dunn: 

I often compare the media love for Ryan Howard to Adam Dunn, as I feel they’re basically equal players (same age, same style, Howard higher average, Dunn better power numbers, etc), but if I’m to call out Ryan, Adam needs the same treatment.

You can’t spin this anymore now than you could a month ago: he’s been a disaster!  Another Ken Williams bust (see Rios, Alex too)

Adam’s still hitting well under .200; just nine homers and 34 RBIs in 78 games; leads the league in strikeouts (117), and a startling 2 for 64 versus left-handed pitching. Yes, that’s a .031 clip! {Grade: FAIL}

Ryan Zimmerman and Shin Soo-Choo have missed too much time for evaluation right now. Neither have been extremely productive.

Overrated:

Ryan Howard:

The “centerpiece” of my article, as many expected, was the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list (and emails, texts and tweets) of overhyped ballplayers for years. I don’t see anything in 2011 to change my mind; in fact, even if the media still think he’s “having a typically excellent year,” I’m more confident in my views than ever.

Though his RBIs remain relatively high, his homerun numbers (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall, while his strikeouts remain 3rd in the National League (98, therefore on pace for nearly 200).  He has yet to homer off a lefty in 110 at bats this season. Howard’s OPS — the most relevant category for a power guy — is an abysmal 25th in the NL.

The local Philly media naturally lauds Howard for “ceding the limelight,” but to me, unless you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career, who doesn’t get on base much, whiffs a lot, is slow, suspect with the glove, but will get you 30 HRs with 100 RBIs and a .255 average, he’s not your man. I’m just stating obvious facts. His backers are getting desperate.

{Grade so far on my prediction that Howard is overrated: PASS}

Carlos Pena:  

The Cubs first baseman has 19 bombs, but he’s still at his customary .225 and a putrid .110 off lefties; yet this overpaid 33-year old is a lifetime .240 hitter, so what do we expect? He doesn’t strikeout quite as much as Howard or Dunn, but that proves little. He’s still overrated. I hope the Pirates don’t trade for him. {Grade: PASS}

BJ Upton: Upton rightly doesn’t get the love he once received, but still, when you think of the Rays, after Longoria, BJ’s name comes up. Why?  You like .239 hitters who strikeout too much, with mediocre power and bad attitudes? Until his average improves…{Grade: PASS}

Jeff Francoeur:

Has expectedly cooled considerably after a surprisingly hot start. Jeff’s still at .265/12/56, but he’s around .235 since April ended. I don’t expect him to get hotter as the summer approaches either. {Grade: MIXED}

Mark Reynolds:

His average has risen all the way to .227, which is apparently impressive for a guy coming off a .198 season. “Only” 96 whiffs in 87 games, but Reynolds is on pace for close to 40 homers and 100 RBIs. The Orioles aren’t winning, so I’m really not sure what he brings to Baltimore, but I could say the same about Pena, Dunn and many others right now. {Grade: PASS}

So I’m looking at decent grades (75-80% or so)…

Agree/disagree? Bring facts, not conjecture nor ad hominem attacks. Thanks.

Maris was a decent hitter, he explained, but never a great one and certainly not the person you would peg for an all-time power-hitting season.  His 61 homers in 1961 was an aberration in the same way Brady Anderson hit 50 homers in 1996 or even Barry Bonds hit 73 in 2001.  Those home run totals were so out of whack that they have almost nothing to do with the player’s past or future performance.

Think of it this way: if you see a black swan swimming amidst a flock of white swans, does that mean that there are more black swans on the way?  Or is he the only one of his kind?

Deep stuff.

With that brain buster in mind, I wanted to take a look at some MLB players who are having black swan seasons either heading into free agency or right after earning a big contract.

Should MLB executives pay the guys who are about to hit the open market based on how they have done in the past, or how they will do in the future, or a blend of both?  And which guys are rewarding or punishing the GMs who paid them the big bucks last winter?

First Year of New Contract

Jose Bautista

Bautista is on another planet at the moment.  He is coming off his huge year last year in Toronto leading the league in home runs and earning a fat new contract.  He was the leading vote getter for the All-Star game, and I cannot wait to see him in the home run derby.  After a crazy .617 slugging percentage last year, Bautista is slugging more than .680 and getting on base at a ridiculous .470 clip – Bondsian numbers, in an era of stringent steroid testing.

Black Swan? Absolutely.

At the moment, this is the textbook (uh, my friend’s dad) definition of a black swan season.  This season sticks out like crazy, and there is no indication from his track record that Bautista’s production will continue. But on the other hand, he could be a case of a player who found his power later in his career. Hey, there are exceptions to every rule.

Bautista seems like a good guy and certainly no one wants him to lose it, except of course for the pitchers who have to face him every day. The average and OBP will have to come down at some point, and the league may figure him out one day. So for now, he is a black swan.

Adam Dunn

Dunn has been the picture of consistency for his entire career: his HR totals from age 24-30 are 46, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38, 38.  That’s while playing for three different teams, with home and away splits of 193/168 in HRs and .901/.878 in OPS.  The Chicago White Sox looked at Dunn hitting free agency at age 31 and figured they were in line for a slash line of about .250/.375/.510, with 35-40 homers.  Pretty outstanding numbers and more than worth the $66 million they gave him.

Of course, Dunn is hitting .165/.301/.302 at the moment, with just 7 homers and more than 100 strikeouts in less than 250 at-bats.  He is on pace for a historically bad season – maybe the worst hitting season ever.

Black Swan? Probably.

There is very little historical comparison for a such a dependable guy suddenly losing it all.  The black swan has struck twice this year for power hitters – Dan Uggla is having a similarly miserable time down in Atlanta coming off a big contract.  Of course, Dunn has a much better track record than Uggla.  Tom Verducci speculated that Dunn is feeling the pressure from his first big time contract but for Ozzie Guillen’s sake, Dunn had better work his demons out fast.

Derek Jeter

This contract looked bad from the minute the ink dried, and Jeter has not disappointed the legions of Yankee haters by posting the worst season of his career. No matter how much you hate the Yankees, it is hard to hate Derek Jeter.  Yes, he dates hotter women than you.  Yes, he is a remarkably overrated defender.  But he is so much less insufferable than Alex Rodriguez and Paul O’Neill and Roger Clemens and a host of other Yankee jerks from the last two decades.

Black Swan? Sadly, no.

The cruel nature of baseball is that a superstar’s decline is rarely sudden – it occurs over several seasons.  Fans watch players decay before their eyes, as in the case of Ken Griffey Jr and Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle and Ted Williams.  Jeter is almost certainly in the twilight of his career, but we all must suffer the agony (or glee) of watching him lose it all before our eyes to the tune of at least two more years and $33 million.

Adrian Gonzalez

Can you believe that the Red Sox are paying just $5.5 million for Gonzalez’s .352/.407/.593 right now?  And that they locked him up for about $21 million a year through his age 38 season, AKA the same age the Yankees will be paying A-Rod $25 million, with $60 million more to go?

This was a classic case of paying for a blend of past results and future performance, a luxury afforded only to teams who can afford the luxury tax.  If you have the money and prospects to get a consistent guy like Gonzalez, you do it every time.

Black Swan? No way.

In fact, he may get even better over the next 3 or 4 years before beginning a decline.  This was a classic case of right player, right team, and right ballpark – similar to the rival Yankees getting Mark Teixeira a few years back, and the exact opposite of the Mets signing Mo Vaughn at age 34 for $40+ million.  Not that I’m bitter or anything.

Looking for a New Contract

CC Sabathia

Pitching is definitely harder to predict than hitting.  Pitchers have black swan seasons all the time: Eric Gagne was unhittable for two or three years, then absolutely disappeared.  Cliff Lee was a struggling journeyman, then suddenly figured it out and won a Cy Young.  But Lee’s former teammate CC is the one about to hit the free agent market, at an advanced age and looking for big bucks. (Note: this is assuming Sabathia exercises the option to terminate his contract early)

Black Swan? As it stands, no.

CC is a guy who won 17 games at age 20, albeit with a high ERA and walk total.  Since then, the wins have pinballed around but the important stats like walk total, innings pitched, and strikeouts have stayed consistent or improved.  He is in the middle of his prime, but his whole career sort of looks like a prime if you go by the numbers.  There is really no indication that CC will lose it in the next few years except for his age and the 2,000+ innings under his considerable belt.

Jose Reyes

This weekend during the Subway Series, Reyes tweaked his hammy, and it looks like he may miss some time.  But that does not take away from the crazy good season Reyes is putting together. Maybe the most telling stat is that he is slugging .527 with only three homers, thanks to his 15 triples.  Of course, this comes after two seasons where Reyes played in only 169 out of a possible 324 games, hit around .280, and barely got on base.  Those two down years followed four outstanding years where Reyes played almost every game possible.   You simply never know how Reyes’ body will hold up.

Black Swan? Nope.

Reyes has put it all together before and he’ll do it again, for whomever gives him Monopoly money next year.  The problem for a seven year deal with a guy who spends his life running full speed, diving into bases head first, and having guys crash into his legs at second base is, not surprisingly, health.  With Reyes, you pay for past results with the understanding that he is one bad turn at second away from the disabled list.

Prince Fielder

Maybe the toughest to predict on this whole list.  Fielder has had a pretty terrific career so far, and his career OPS of .927 is a testament to the way he can flat out hit.  This season has been even better than his last, and it comes as Prince makes a contract push with agent Scott Boras allegedly looking for a $200 million contract for his client.

Of course, his weight is comfortably in the three bills (he is listed at 275, which is like listing David Eckstein at 7’3″) and he plays the field in a way that makes you think he forgot to wipe the burger grease off his hands.  A poor body and bad defensive skills lead one to believe he will have a breakdown at some point in the near future, especially if he lets his body go even further after earning a big contract.

Black Swan? Most pundits would say yes, but I say no – power hitting just runs in the family.

Papa Cecil hit 51 homers at age 26, but son Prince eclipsed 50 at age 23 and is well on his way again this year.  Dad’s last big home run year was at age 32, but Prince is already a better all-around hitter than his father was, and given that he is rarely injured, there’s no reason to believe he is headed for any sort of breakdown.  Just keep him away from the post game spread.

Albert Pujols

The best hitter in the game is struggling through a rare off-year, not at all the way you would expect Pujols to respond with his next contract set to break the bank this winter.  Of course, an off-year Pujols is still slugging .500 with 17 homers before hitting the disabled list last month.

Black Swan? Oh yeah.

Look, even Babe Ruth lost a whole season to Chlamydia once.  Pujols is allowed to have a down year thanks to some accumulated injuries.  Remember, this is a guy who played a whole season with a torn elbow and still mashed the ball.  If anyone is poised for a rebound, it’s him, and he will get paid accordingly.

**********

* – Adam Dunn photo credit: Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images via SI.com

One very cool new aspect of this year’s derby though is that for the first time, the participants in the contest will be selected by a captain from each league. The 2009 winner, Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers will pick the NL squad while 2010 champion David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox will pick for the American League.

I like this idea, as I think the players will take their selections seriously and take input from teammates and fellow players. They will have to take into consideration not only who is having a good slugging season this year, but who has a swing and the power conducive to a contest like this.

I’m not totally sure how the participants were selected in the past, but if I were Fielder and Ortiz, this is how I would pick the teams. (Also if I were Fielder and Ortiz, I would be a very large person.)

National League

Fielder could go a couple different ways here, starting first with his teammate Ryan Braun. Braun has been one of the best hitters in the NL this season, with 16 homers and 60 RBI entering July. He could also pick guys like Matt Kemp, who is leading the NL in home runs, and Lance Berkman, who has had a resurgence this season.

However, if I were Fielder, I’d play for the win with young guys who can simply mash.

Jay Bruce

While not as complete a hitter as teammate Joey Votto, Bruce has emerged as the best slugger on the Reds. He has that leg kick and an easy swing, which I think would be perfect to turn on 82 mph fastballs in a home run derby.

Mike Stanton

He’s only 21 and may someday break the strikeout record, he has the potential to shatter home run records as well. I’ve seen and read accounts of his amazing power, and he could definitely be a staple of home run derbies for many years to come.

Michael Morse

Morse was a journeyman for a while, but has really seized his opportunity in just over a month of regular playing time for the Nationals. He has 15 home runs, good for 10th in the NL, in far fewer at-bats than the other league leaders.

American League

The first decision that Big Papi has to make is whether to include Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson on his squad. The two have combined for 46 home runs entering July, but Ortiz would have to play nice with Yankees, which he has proven he can do in the past. Ortiz could also side with new teammate Adrian Gonzalez, which would prove for an interesting foursome if those were to be the picks.

If I were picking the AL squad, I would go in a little different direction.

Jose Bautista

This one is a no-brainer. This guys is simply mashing this season and could do some serious damage in the derby.

Nelson Cruz

He has Home Run Derby experience, having participated back in 2009. Cruz is crushing the ball again this season, with 18 home runs in about 50 at-bats less than most of the leaders.

Adam Dunn

He might be having a pretty awful season, but a Home Run Derby could be just the thing that turns it around for Dunn. He’s never competed in a derby, and I’m not sure why, but I think he would be a spectacular addition to the AL squad.

If you were David Ortiz and Prince Fielder, who would you choose for the AL and NL Home Run Derby teams?

Stock Up

Dee Gordon – SS – LAD

Took over as the starting shortstop and is now leading off. The Dodgers moved Jamey Carroll to 2nd when Rafael Furcal hitting the DL with an oblique injury. Dee has blazing speed at 150 lbs and could easily do similar to Elvis Andrus did in his rookie year.

Mike Moustakas – 3B – KC

Recalled on Friday and will take over as the everyday third baseman for the Royals. Made his debut on Friday night hitting 6th in the lineup. The former 2nd overall pick in the 2007 draft has a plethora of talent and should definitely make a strong impact since 3rd base is so shallow.

J.J. Hardy – SS – BAL

James Jerry was moved to the leadoff role and will continue to until Brian Roberts returns. Mr. Hardy has hit 4 home runs, going 12 – 26 with 7 RBI’s, and 10 runs scored to start off the month of June. Remember he still has 20 home run power in the middle infield.

Prince Fielder – 1B – MIL

Prince is now 11-28, with 6 home runs, and batting .300 on the year. He’s struck out only 31 times so far this year while in 2008, he struck out 134 times, and in 2009 & 2010 he struck out 138 times. Being a contract year, Prince should easily reach 40 home runs and could definitely be in the running for the NL MVP if continues to blister through the summer.

Adam Lind – DH/1B – TOR

Since returning from the DL Adam is 11-27, with 4 home runs while batting clean-up. Look for Lind to continue hitting well in the Bluejays’ lineup.

Stock Down

Adam Dunn – 1B/DH – CWS

Adam has struggled mightily since returning from the appendectomy and against lefties (1-44) for the season. While he’s been being dropped to 7th in the order look for Dunn to rebound in a big way in the immediate future. Most of his home runs come in bunches and what’s amazing is, he will still probably end up with30 home runs and a .240 batting average. He’s a great buy low candidate right now before he breaks out of his slump. Dunn took a couple days off watching video of his 40 home run seasons and rebounded by hitting a home run off Trevor Cahill in his first game back.

Casey McGehee – 3B – MIL

Casey has 4 home runs and 11 errors on the season. He’s been a disappointment so far this year batting .227 with only 24 RBI’s. It’s seems pitchers have figured him out or they are actually pitching to Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.

Dexter Fowler – OF – COL

Hit the DL with an oblique injury after batting .238 this year with only 2 SB’s. Carlos Gonzalez looks to take over center field Charlie Blackmon could run with left field out of the gates if he starts hitting.

I figured I might as well do occasional updates on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera

This machine keeps hitting. Top 10 in every meaningful offensive category. He’s underrated simply because he doesn’t get the attention that Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and other superstars get. And this year, because of his offseason DUI, it seems the media is even more apathetic to his on-field exploits.

Grade so far on my prediction: PASS

Shin Soo-Choo:

How is it that two of my underrated guys got DUIs?

Anyway, despite Cleveland’s success, Choo is having a down season. No other way to rationalize it. He needs to step up if the Tribe want to maintain their April/May success.

Grade: FAIL

Paul Konerko:

Mashing as usual, especially lately. Top 5 in the big offensive categories. Rapidly closing in on 400 homers and 2000 hits. How many media guys would say he’s a better player than Ryan Howard? 10%? I don’t even think it’s a comparison, and the stats back ME up. Howard will never get 2000 hits and 400 HRs is questionable. Konerko somehow gets better with age.

Grade: PASS

Adam Dunn:

I often compare the media love for Ryan Howard to Adam Dunn, as I feel they’re equal players (same age, same style, Howard higher average, Dunn better power numbers, etc), but if I’m to call out Ryan, Adam needs the same treatment.

You can’t spin this anymore here in the second week of June: he’s been a disaster!

Hitting well under .200; just five homers and 23 RBIs in 54 games; leads the league in strikeouts, and a startling 1 for 42 versus left-handed pitching. When I was in Chicago over the weekend, callers on 670 The Score were not pleased with The Big Donkey’s performance.

Grade: FAIL

Ryan Zimmerman:

Has been out for two months.

Grade: N/A

Overrated

Ryan Howard:

The “centerpiece” of my article was the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list (and emails, texts and tweets) of overhyped ballplayers for years. I don’t see anything in 2011 to change my mind; in fact, I’m more confident in my views than ever.

After a decent April, he was awful in May (.208, 36 Ks), and not much better in June (.208 again so far). Though his RBIs remain relatively high (3rd in NL at 47), his homerun numbers (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall, while his strikeouts remain 2nd in the National League (72, on pace for nearly 200).  He has yet to homer off a lefty in 60 games this season. Howard’s OPS — the most relevant category for a power guy — is barely top 30. He walks as infrequently as any power hitter: just 59 times in 2010 and 26 times so far in 2011.

If you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career, who doesn’t get on base much, whiffs a lot, is slow, suspect with the glove, but will get you 25-30 HRs with 100 RBIs and maybe a .260 average, he’s your man. I’m just stating obvious facts. His backers are getting desperate.

To reiterate, I’m hard-pressed to find a player in the league for whom there is a greater disconnect between perceived value and actual value.

Grade so far on my prediction that Howard is overrated: PASS

Carlos Pena:

The Cubs first baseman hit .258 with seven homeruns in May. I can’t really criticize that after a .159 April, but he’s still a putrid 3 for 43 off lefties (.070), and carrying a .217 overall average; yet this overpaid 33-year old is a lifetime .240 hitter, so what do we expect? He doesn’t strikeout quite as much as Howard or Dunn, but that proves little. He’s still overrated.

Grade: PASS

BJ Upton: Upton rightly doesn’t get the love he once received, but still, when you think of the Rays, after Longoria, BJ’s name comes up. Why?  You like .220 hitters with limited power and bad attitudes?

Grade: PASS

Jeff Francoeur:

Has expectedly cooled considerably after a surprisingly hot start. Jeff’s still at .272/9/38, but he’s around .240 since April ended. I don’t expect him to get hotter as the summer approaches either.

Grade: MIXED

Mark Reynolds:

Under .200 still. “Only” 61 whiffs in 58 games, but still, just nine homeruns, which is below his standards. In Arizona, he mashed 121 dingers over four seasons, so now I’m really not sure what he brings to Baltimore, but I could say the same about Pena, Dunn and many others right now.

Grade: PASS

So I’m looking at decent grades (80% or so) outside of two guys.

Agree/disagree? Bring facts, not conjecture nor ad hominem attacks. Thanks.

I figured I might as well do a monthly update on these “predictions,” so as to capriciously praise or condemn myself.

Underrated

Miguel Cabrera: One of baseball’s best — if not the best in the AL — who rarely gets included in those lists, is off to his usual strong start, near the top of the league in many meaningful categories. How many have noticed? Few. The man who just turned 28 should eclipse 1500 hits sometime in July. Amazing. (Grade so far on my prediction: PASS)

Shin-Soo Choo: I didn’t go out on a limb here as many view this guy in similar fashion. He’s finally coming around a bit after a slow start, but with his team hot (welcome back, Grady Sizemore!), the Korean has begun to hit. His RBI numbers are particularly strong, since he finally has some talent around him. (Prediction Grade: Mixed)

Ryan Zimmerman: A strong start through eight games before injury. Unfortunately, no specific timetable on his return. (Grade: N/A)

Paul Konerko: The veteran just continues to rake, as he’s near the top of the AL in nearly all meaningful categories, yet Pauly still doesn’t get all the recognition he’s earned. On pace for around 40 Hrs and 140 knocked in. Will probably get his 400th career long ball and 2000th hit in 2011. (Grade: PASS)

Adam Dunn: Like the White Sox, Dunn’s been a major disappointment so far. No explanations for now, but I expect him to heat up as the weather does. (Grade: Fail)

Overrated

Ryan Howard: The “centerpiece” of my article is the Phillies’ big first baseman, who’s been at the top of my list of overhyped ballplayers for years. Though his RBIs remain relatively high, his homerun numbers (and overall power categories like slugging, OPS and OBP) continue to fall, while his strikeouts remain near the top of the league. If you’re looking for a player on the back-end of his career, doesn’t walk, whiffs a lot, is slow, suspect with the glove, but will get you 25-30 HRs with 100 RBIs and a .275 average, he’s your man. Just not an elite player deserving of an elite contract and elite publicity from ESPN. Those are facts.

Basically, as I said in my article, I’m hard-pressed to find a player in the league for whom there is a greater disconnect between perceived value and actual value. Finally, I think people are beginning to agree with me. (Grade on my prediction: Mixed)

Carlos Pena: Quite a signing by the Cubs, eh? Yes, it’s only a month in, but Pena’s already proving, as I noted, to hardly be an everyday player. The punchouts remain high, the average still appallingly low (below .200 for second year in a row), and Carlos cannot hit lefties. He makes $10 million per year. An absolute joke. A tougher fan base would’ve already forced Mike Quade’s hand, but most Wrigley fans don’t care about winning, just carousing. (Grade for me: PASS)

BJ Upton: A sad story about  kid with potential who simply cannot realize it. Upton continues to hit very low average, limited power and high strikeouts. Though he’s hit a bit better this week, all in all, the aforementioned is a horrific combination. I wish BJ the best, but he’s just not producing. (Grade for me: PASS)

Jeff Francoeur: He was a stretch to include, yet I was willing to take the risk; so far, I’m way off. Despite struggles last season, “Frenchy” is tearing it up for an erstwhile surprising Royals squad. We’ll see how long he stays in KC as they go toward a youth movement, but he’s doing well so far (Grade: Fail)

Mark Reynolds: I’m not a GM, but I do know what kind of players I dislike, and Reynolds is the type. I don’t understand what teams see in him. While Mark has been so futile he’s made Ryan Howard (199 Ks in 2007 and 2008) and others prone to the punch-out vanish from the headlines, he’s “only” on pace for about 160 Ks in 2011. However, the Orioles’ third baseman is baseman is hitting under .200 AGAIN, and this time not even producing power. At least in Arizona he mashed 121 dingers over four seasons. The local media is so desperate for anything from the free agent acquisition that they’re writing full articles hailing games where he gets a hit! (Grade: PASS)

Stay tuned for another update at the end of May.

However, my pride in the mammoth visitor numbers we put up during the Big Game cannot compete with the pride I feel in seeing a member of the MSF team featured in one of the preeminent baseball preview magazines hitting newsstands everywhere as we zoom closer to pitchers and catchers reporting.

So, on behalf of the entire MSF team, I’d like to congratulate MSF’s own co-editor Ari Kaufman for earning the well-deserved honor of having his writing featured in the USA Today Baseball Preview Magazine. The article is entitled “Some players are overrated and others are underrated. We name names.” As usual, Ari provides strong opinions…and backs them up with numbers.

And for those of you familiar with Ari’s writing, it will not surprise you which side of the argument Ryan Howard is on.

The article is not available online via USA Today, but we did post it on MSF here. You can find it anywhere they sell sports magazines, from Barnes & Noble and Target to Wal-Mart and your local grocery store or CVS/Walgreens.

Here are high-res images of the article, shrunken down to fit the width of the post area. You should still be able to read it pretty easily.

———-

———-

———-

———-

Here are the various regional covers:

Covers are regional, and there are eight in all:

1. C.C. Sabathia/David Wright (northeast)

2. Roy Halladay/Ryan Zimmerman (mid-Atlantic)

3. Jason Heyward/Evan Longoria/Hanley Ramirez (southeast)

4. Joey Votto (Ohio/Indiana/Michigan)

5. Paul Konerko/Justin Morneau (Chicago/Miwaukee/Minnesota)

6. Albert Pujols/Josh Hamilton (south central)

7. Andre Ethier/Jered Weaver/Mat Latos (southwest)

8. Tim Lincecum/Felix Hernandez (Bay Area/Rocky Mountains/Northwest)

**********

———-

Baseball fans are a unique lot. They’re often obsessed with statistics, and they love lists. One particular interest, especially in the era of fantasy sports, is ranking current players either versus each other or those of the past.

With this in mind, as we steamroll toward the 2011 campaign, let’s take a look at the five most overrated and underrated position players in the game today, sticking with guys who have at least three seasons in the big leagues.

The Most Overrated Position Players in Baseball

———-

Overrated: Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia first baseman’s power numbers are his legit strength, but in 2010 those fell substantially — about 30 percent — as he turned 30. Hitting only 31 homers notwithstanding, Howard also appears to be declining in other areas: he’s been horrid his past three playoff series, especially power (zero RBI in nine 2010 games) and strikeouts (30 in his last 52 postseason at bats going back to his record-breaking strikeout run in the 2009 Fall Classic).

Howard’s average (.279 career) also remains suspect, and his walks are very low for power hitter (just 57 in 2010). Compared to the NL’s ‘elite’ first basemen like Pujols, Votto and others, Howard is subpar defensively. Late in games, he’s become a liability versus lefties.

Yet Ryan is still celebrated with numerous commercials, three all star game selections, and awards like 2005 ROY and 2006 MVP. Is he somehow living off 2006 and some excellent power numbers his first five seasons? Confirming, even in a down 2010 season — 17th in OPS — Howard still received numerous top 5 NL MVP votes, including one second place, meaning a writer voted him over Albert Pujols or Joey Votto.

Within all this, in order to keep their aging Howard-Utley-Rollins nucleus together, the Phillies gave him the second highest contract in the game: SEVEN years at roughly 25 million per. Imagine Howard at age 37?

I’m hard-pressed to find a player in the league for whom there is a greater disconnect between perceived value and actual value.

Overrated: Carlos Pena, 1B, Chicago Cubs

The quasi-journeyman is definitely a good story, but nearing age 33, he’s become a poor man’s Ryan Howard — on Ryan’s worst day. Pena’s has become so ineffective he now bats close to the bottom of Tampa’s order, and does not regularly play versus lefties.

Irrespective of his homers, as theoretical middle-of-the-order guy, his job is to drive in runs. Pena clearly failed at that in 2010, falling well short of 100 RBI. In fact, he didn’t even put the ball in play that much (158 Ks vs. 95 hits).

Despite having decent power and a reliable glove, Pena’s also a .241 career hitter in more than 1,000 games, who hit a league-worst .196 in 2010 (an incredulous .179 versus lefties), and carries a sub .200 average against lefties the past three years combined. To make matters worse, as you might have surmised, Pena strikes out a ton.

Overrated: Mark Reynolds, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

High punch-out guys with decent power and low averages are becoming a theme, and Mark Reynolds may be the prime example. Playing in the desert for a team that’s struggled the past few seasons probably obscures his historic futility at the plate. While the third baseman is a lifetime .240 hitter, he’s whiffed an astounding 767 times in 563 career big league games. The past three years his strikeout totals have been 204, 223 and 211. Reynolds has been so futile he’s made Ryan Howard (199 in 2007 and 2008) and others prone to the punch-out vanish from the headlines.

Overrated: B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Here is a guy truly living off a 2008 postseason, where he was certainly remarkable. But the elder Upton has done nothing to impress since. In fact, his younger brother, Justin, is better in every area, yet happens to play in Arizona, which has become baseball’s warmer version of Siberia. These last two seasons Upton has hit only .241 and 237 with no power, yet somehow still had high strikeouts (over 150 in 2009 and 2010).

Overrated: Jeff Francoeur, OF, Kansas City Royals

While “Frenchy” is still just 27, he has a lot of wear due to beginning his major league career at age 21 in 2005. Since that rookie campaign (.300 with 14 homers in just 70 games), Jeff’s average has consistently been low. His power has been limited at best sans 2006, and he was an absolute liability at the plate in the 2010 postseason for Texas: 3 for 24 with just one RBI. Despite a strong arm in right, his speed is well below average.

Honorable Mention: Carlos Beltran, Pat Burrell, Russell Martin, Xavier Nady, Jhonny Peralta

The Most Underrated Position Players in Baseball

———-

Underrated: Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers

After bursting on the national scene during the Marlins 2003 title run at the tender age of 20, this Venezuelan now has a whopping 247 career HRs, 1400 hits, and perhaps most impressively, a .313 lifetime batting average. Cabrera, who seems more comfortable at first base than his original slot on the hot corner, will still be just 27 years old on opening day. He should have 1000 RBI by the close of the 2011 campaign.

With power to all fields, Cabrera is only getting better with age, augmenting his production with relatively little support around him. His stellar career statistics stand alongside a 2010 year that included a .330 average, 38 big flies, 126 RBI, a .420 on-base percentage, and well over a .1000 OPS, with fewer than 100 strikeouts.

Yet despite these eye-opening accomplishments, is he ever considered one of ‘the best in the game’ along with the likes of Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer, and others when those perfunctory lists are compiled? Needless to add, Cabrera was denied the 2010 AL MVP, finishing second to Josh Hamilton.

Underrated: Adam Dunn, OF/DH, Chicago White Sox

Do people realize that the big man from Texas has crushed at least 38 long balls seven consecutive seasons? And while Dunn is often maligned for his defense, people still focus on his adventures in left field — a spot where he never should have been while in Cincinnati. Maybe DH is his future, but Adam is more than adequate right now at first base, and surely as good as the celebrated Ryan Howard defensively.

Born ten days before Howard in 1979, “The Big Donkey” also has over 100 more career dingers (354) and RBI (880) than the Philadelphia first baseman. But unlike Howard and others, Dunn’s lone all star selection came way back in 2002, and it seems like every offseason he’s tossed aside, looking for a team to offer him a long-term contract. His name somehow generates more criticism than praise, despite the fact that Adam Dunn’s is regarded as great teammate and his production clearly speaks for itself.

Dunn’s 2007-2010 numbers are equivalent to, or better, than Howard’s, while stuck on inferior teams. His 2010 numbers with Washington –second in the league in homers — were actually superior to Howard’s in every meaningful category but average.

So, when does Adam get his big contracts and accolades, or like Howard, at least Subway commercials and Entourage cameos?

Underrated: Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox

A .280 lifetime hitter — .312 with 39 dingers and 110 steaks last season — who’s won a world title, is brilliant defensively, closing in on 400 HRs and 2000 hits in just 12 seasons, is a potential Hall of Famer, right? His name is Paul Konerko. Does that change your mind? Talk about a guy playing in a big market that is overlooked. Mr. Konerko was fifth in AL MVP voting for 2010, but that’s about his highest individual “honor.”

Perhaps part of why Chicago’s first baseman doesn’t get the recognition he deserves is because he’s among the league’s streakier players. Paul has had entire halves of seasons where he’s been non-existent. Consistency from year-to-year has been an issue for him. Nonetheless, his career accomplishments are undeniable.

Underrated: Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland Indians

Choo is semi-quietly putting up great in what amounts to roughly four seasons. He’s already 29, so he’s in his prime, but most wouldn’t know the Cleveland right-fielder except for his military service “controversy” based out of his native Korea. {Despite escalating tensions with North Korea, Choo was exempted from his military obligation in South Korea following the country’s November gold medal in the Asian Games. The outfielder hit .571 with three homers and 11 RBIs in four contests.}

A strong defensive player, Choo is a .300 lifetime hitter with decent power on bad Indian teams. He was 9th in the AL in OPS, ahead of people like Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer, and MLB-wise, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard and David Wright.

Underrated: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

The man known as “Z-Pack” by the media will be only 26 years old for the 2011 season; but as a charter member of the Washington Nationals going back to when he was 20 in 2005, Zimmerman looks and acts like a veteran. His numbers are very consistent for young player: aside from an injury-plagued 2008, he’s hit 20 homers and knocked in 100 runs (or close) each season. Zimmerman is an awesome defensive third baseman and a team leader, who, on a big market team, would be known as well as David Wright or Mark Teixeira.

And can he get some love for apparently just being a mature, good all-around guy? “ziMS Foundation,” of which he’s the president, raises money in search of a cure for Multiple Sclerosis.

Honorable Mention: Dan Uggla, Michael Cuddyer, Billy Butler, Rajai Davis, Mike Napoli

**********

What do you think? Do you agree/disagree with the picks above? Who do you think are the most overrated and underrated players in baseball? Chime in below with your comments.

In this post, we’ll look at some of the biggest names who will be playing in new AL & NL Central cities and assess their outlook for 2011. Then you can hop over to MSF Fantasy Sports for a more complete look at the fantasy impact of this year’s offseason movement.

Adam Dunn to the White Sox

Dunn will have a 50 home run season on the South Side.  Dunn is a great power hitter, who has steadily improved his batting average.  He is a top notch first baseman when placed in the home run palace that is U.S. Cellular Field.  Pick Dunn early because he is poised for a huge year as a White Sock.

[Editor's note: is it "White Sock" or "White Sox" when used in this tense? I know how it's pronounced, but how is properly spelled? I'm not sure there is a correct answer...]

Zack Greinke to the Brewers

Greinke gets a big boost in the form of some run support, finally.  He should see his win total rise greatly if he can continue his recent success.  Greinke will be a top-10 starting pitcher this year.  Greinke has great strikeout numbers so he should be looked at as an early draft pick.  Also, the Brewers have put together a nice top three in their rotation combining Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum.  Consider Greinke and Gallardo elite pitchers this year, while Marcum is still a solid option.

Victor Martinez to the Tigers

Martinez is the top catcher after this move. Miguel Cabrera backs up Martinez in the lineup now, and that means more fastballs for a great fastball hitter.  While Comerica Park is a death spot for power numbers, Martinez will still be a top notch catcher.

Head over to MSF Fantasy Sports to see Ryan McElroy’s complete analysis of the fantasy impact of the offseason movement by guys like Cliff Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, and many more.

Comments are closed here but you can ask your fantasy baseball questions in the comment section at MSF Fantasy Sports.

Mr. Howard had an MVP caliber and historic 2006. Adam Dunn has never had a year which has come close to that. That being said, 2006 was a while ago. Back in 2006, for instance, Travis Hafner hit 42 bombs, and he’s only hit 47 total since.

Dunn has better career stats (130 more RBIs and close to 100 more HRs), though that’s a result of his time in the majors commencing earlier than Howard’s. Consequently, career stats isn’t a fair way to gauge the better “current” player.

Therefore, the best and perhaps only way one can compare the two is to take their last three seasons and look at what I believe to be the two most important offensive statistics: On Base Percentage (OBP) and On Base Plus Slugging (OPS).

OBP (2007-2009)

Dunn: .386, .386, .398

Howard: .392, .339, .360

OPS (2007-2009)

Dunn: .940, .899, .928

Howard: .976, .881, .931

Overall, despite Howard’s strong close to 2009, Dunn still has the advantage in OBP and it’s darn close in OPS, giving Dunn a overall better ledger. The Nationals first baseman is also basically even with Howard in both categories through April 2010 (Dunn was ahead in both until yesterday), as the man with the new $125 million contract has a paltry five walks in 21 games this season with one homer and just four RBI the past 13.

You also have to take into account that Howard gets more pitches to hit, batting in front of studs like Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth (and Pat Burrell prior to that) than Dunn, who has little around him in DC. Additionally, Dunn has more versatility because he can play outfield and first base, whereas Howard can only play 1B (though neither are particularly good fielders). Lastly, Howard plays half the season in arguably baseball’s best hitters’ park, which aids his power figures each campaign.

Ryan Howard is a strong player, but based on this factual analysis, Adam Dunn’s right there with him. Considering they are both the same age, I’d say they are very comparable players, and many fantasy players prefer Dunn based on his OPS.

As a friend (White Sox fan, therefore no bias) replied via email when I sent him this info:

“Your simple study shows that for the last three years, it appears Dunn has been the better player and definitely the better value for fantasy owners like me. And while Howard is stuck in the field a few years from now — during this ridiculous contract — Dunn will be resting as a DH in the AL.”

All these facts, and yet Howard’s won an MVP (2006), finished in the top five every other season (2007-2009), claimed Rookie of the Year in 2005, made the All-Star team multiple times, and earns more than twice Dunn’s salary, while starring in more commercials than nearly any other player.

And Adam? Just one All Star selection eight years ago. People actually make fun of him, just as they laugh at me for making the above comparison.

Something is certaintly askew here.

**********

* – Adam Dunn photo credit: Dustin Bradford/Icon SMI via SI.com

* – Ryan Howard photo credit: Taragna.com

It was reported Sunday that, despite a team that was a pennant contender in April having the AL’s worst record most of May, June and July, manager Eric Wedge will serve out his term the rest of 2009, and perhaps beyond.

“As I’ve said all along, the responsibility for the disappointments of this season don’t rest on one person,” Shapiro said. “The responsibility is spread equally throughout the players, the front office, Eric and his staff.”

Really? In most jobs, or in politics, the man at the top is rewarded or punished for the company’s or his administration’s successes or failures. In sports, it is often the same, especially in baseball. But apparently, not on the southern shore of Lake Erie. Who knew?

On the surface, sure, the team has been doomed since mid-April after they lost eight of their first nine games, so why bring in an interim skipper at mid-season?

On the other hand, why not? It might spark the team, help them avoid an embarrassing 100 loss season, and maybe that interim manager might stick, as they occasionally do?

In fact, many Indians’ fans believe Joel Skinner, who took over for Charlie Manuel when the current Philly manager was fired seven years ago this week, deserved the job over Wedge, who took over at the outset of the 2003 season.

It’s easy to argue that Wedge’s hire was a mistake at this point. He had a great team built for him to contend for years after the bad 2002-2004 stretch, and has just a .500 record to show for it, one playoff appearance (2007) and three very disappointing seasons (2006, 2008 & 2009.)

Shapiro, disagrees, and has cashed in 2009:

“I thought it was important for the second half to remove a potential distraction that exists from that speculation,” he said.

He then spoke in clichés:

“This is not a vote of confidence, nothing has changed,” said Shapiro. “I have the ability to be decisive about this right now. I want to eliminate distractions and make sure there is accountability.”

Sure, Mark.

Actions speak louder the words.

And what a shame for a city desperate for a winner.

**********

In other non-Indians news…

I should add that, while we all know all-star selections are silly, if Ryan Howard made the NL reserves, so should Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds, who have better statistics with about 10% of the talent around them.

This is not opinion, but fact. It’s laughable only because it was predictable.

ESPN was so confident and biased toward Ryan that earlier this week they were talking to him about how many ticket requests he had, not about whether or not he deserved to be chosen.

* – Mark Shapiro / Eric Wedge photo credit: AP via MLB.com