I Wrote a Post This Morning, But Ty Lawson Stole It

Congratulations to the North Carolina Tar Heels for putting on an outstanding performance last night to win the 2009 National Championship. I went out on a limb to pick the Spartans, and really felt like Michigan State had the momentum, confidence, and gameplan to get the job done, but obviously I was mistaken. North Carolina proved last night that they are one of the best teams of this decade, and they are a very deserving National Champion. And they are also now tied with Indiana for third on the list of teams with the most National Titles.

Come on Crean. I think it’s time for another one in Bloomington.

Congratulations are also in order for my dad, who won the first ever Midwest Sports Fans Bracket Challenge. He picked North Carolina to win it all, and his bracket ended up in the 99.8 percentile. Not too shabby. And his bracket at home was even better. Maybe instead of me writing 4,000-word long posts about the tournament games we should just have him do the previews. I finished 10th out 41, 72.6 percentile. Back to the drawing board next year for a bracket-picking system.

The day after the NCAA Tournament is always a sad day for me, and for college basketball fans across the country. Luckily, we have the Masters and baseball to jump right into.

But thank you, college basketball, for a great season. You have always been, and will always be, my favorite. And now that March Madness is over, I’m already counting down the days until Midnight Madness next season.

NCAA Championship Game: Michigan State-North Carolina Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Michigan State-North Carolina NCAA Championship game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

From the Maui Invitational to March Madness, it all comes down to Championship Monday. One of the participants in this year’s Mens NCAA Championship Game was excepted: North Carolina. The other, Michigan State, surprised a lot of people (but not me) by surpassing Louisville to even make it to Detroit for the Final Four. They then surprised even more people (including me) by knocking off UConn Saturday night.

Now, the Spartans and head coach Tom Izzo have an opportunity to bring even more joy to the city of Detroit by capturing the 2009 NCAA Championship. All that stands in their way is the most talented team in America and the team that has been more dominant than any other during the NCAA Tournament. Monday night’s game will be, undoubtedly, the most challenging yet for Izzo, Kalin Lucas, and the mighty Spartans.

But so was Saturday night’s game against UConn, and Michigan State was able to impose their will in an 82-73 victory.

And so was last weekend’s game against Louisville, but the Spartans took the Cardinals behind the woodshed in the second half and made all fans of Big Ten basketball proud in a 64-52 victory.

The question now is: can these magic Spartans pull another unexpected rabbit out of their hat with an upset over North Carolina?

I’m about to put my 12-2 record predicting all of the games since the Sweet 16 on the line. I went against Michigan State in their Final Four matchup with UConn. It will take a lot for me to pick against them again.

Unfortunately for all of the Big Ten and Spartan supporters who will be cheering on the guys in green Monday night, North Carolina has proven there are a lot of reasons to like their chances. Will it be enough to overcome the decidedly home court-like advantage that Michigan State will enjoy on Monday night? That’s what we’re here to find out. (Or, at least, predict.)

First, a few of the specifics for the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Championship game between Michigan State and North Carolina:

Michigan State v North Carolina National Championship Game Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• RazorGator: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• Hotels.com: Find Hotels in Detroit for Mens NCAA Championship Game
• What: 70th Mens Basketball NCAA Championship Game
• Where: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• When: Monday, April 6th
• TV Time: 9:21 ET on CBS
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -7.5
• Over-Under: 153

(FYI…the spread and over-under info are the initial lines from BetUs.com from Saturday night. You may want to check there for the most up-to-date info.)

And now, let’s head over to Game Predictor and see how Michigan State and North Carolina match up with respect to the same five statistical categories we have used to analyze every game thus far since the Sweet 16:

• Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.155 | Michigan State – 1.058
• Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.932 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.416 | Michigan State – 1.181
• Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.765 | Michigan State – 0.698
• Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.414 | Michigan State – 0.414

So the Tar Heels win three out of the five categories, with the teams being identical in terms of the field goal percentage they give up. For anyone who has been following these predictions, we know that Game Predictor will choose the Tar Heels. They are the higher seed and have the advantage in the stat categories. The question is, how strong will the prediction be? Let’s find out:

• Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 59.2% | Michigan State – 40.8%
• Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 74.7 | Michigan State – 71.8
• Odds to Cover Spread: (I did this before the spread had been posted. Use the link above to go to Game Predictor and analyze it on your own, using your own stats, if you really want to know. I don’t bet on sports, so I don’t really care that much.)
• Confidence Level: 2 Stars

Now that we know how Game Predictor sees the game, with no real surprises, it’s time for a little analysis and prediction.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let’s discuss one thing that does not matter heading into Monday night’s MSU-UNC game:

Back in December, North Carolina beat Michigan State 98-63 at Ford Field in Detroit

A lot of people are going to point to the Michigan State-North Carolina game from earlier this season as a reason for why North Carolina can and should beat Michigan State on Monday. Why? Same teams + same season + same venue (should) = same result…right?

Not so fast, and here are the reasons:

• In December, the announced attendance was 25,267 out of the 70,000 person capacity at Ford Field. Monday night, there will be 70,000 strong at the game and the vast majority will be partial to the Spartans. Michigan State may not be in East Lansing, but it will be as close to a home game as possible for a game like this in terms of fan support.
• Goran Suton did not play in the first meeting. He was out with a sprained knee. Suton did not have a good game against UConn Saturday, but he was huge in the Spartans’ wins over Kansas and Louisville.
• Michigan State came into the game having only two days rest after playing three games in four nights at the Old Spice Classic in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. After the game, Tom Izzo said, “The blame goes on me for the scheduling. We were dead.” The Tar Heels had finished up their championship run in the Maui Invitational on November 26th and then played a tune-up game against UNC-Asheville that resulted in a relaxing 116-48 victory. Ty Lawson smartly said during the press conference after the Villanova game that the previous game would have no bearing on Monday night.
• Kalin Lucas scored six points on 2-10 shooting. Have you seen him play in the tournament? Do you think he’ll do that again? I don’t think so.

Okay, now that we have that out of the way, let’s take a look at where each team has an advantage with three reasons why each team will win.

Three Reasons Why North Carolina Will Beat Michigan State

1 – Plain and simple, North Carolina at its best is better than Michigan State at its best.

Can anyone truly, honestly dispute this?

If both of these teams play their absolute best basketball of the season, North Carolina will win. But luckily for the Spartans, the game is not played in such a vacuum. Many people thought Michigan State and Kansas were an even match, and the Spartans came out on top. Most people gave Louisville and UConn the advantage over Michigan State, but the Spartans still came out on top.

Nearly everyone, again, will give North Carolina the advantage over Michigan State — so can the Spartans come out on top?

Well, they can…but they have to force the Tar Heels to play below their ability. And while this is certainly possible in a one game scenario, you would lose more money that you’d win betting against the team with superior ability.

An old adage of winning in the NCAA Tournament is that usually the teams with the most NBA-level talent end up going the furthest. North Carolina certainly has more players projected to make an impact at the next level than Michigan State. Again, this does not necessarily mean that North Carolina will win, but their chances of doing so are certainly better.

2 – Ty Lawson is the best player on the floor.

I realize that this somewhat piggybacks on the last one, but it’s an important distinction. Having a lot of talent is great, but if that talent does not function together as a unit, it does not matter. The reason why Michigan State has beaten Louisville and UConn is that Kalin Lucas has been an oustanding floor general and has guided the talent on the floor with him to play better team basketball than its opponents.

Ty Lawson is doing the exact same thing, and now we know why everyone was so concerned about his toe injury. This guy is magnificent.

And as good as Kalin Lucas is, Ty Lawson is still a notch above. I love Kalin, but he is not as consistent a shooter nor quite as effective a playmaker in the open court as Lawson. A quick comparison:

• Points per game: Ty Lawson – 16.3 | Kalin Lucas – 14.6
• Assists per game: Ty Lawson – 6.5 | Kalin Lucas – 4.6
• Field Goal %: Ty Lawson – .542 | Kalin Lucas – .394
• Free Throw %: Ty Lawson – .815 | Kalin Lucas – .814
• Free Throw Attempts per game: Ty Lawson – 5.2 | Kalin Lucas – 5.52
• 3 Point %: Ty Lawson – .485 | Kalin Lucas – .388

Look, I love Kalin Lucas. (In fact, I’ve now said that I love him in two consecutive paragraphs, but it’s just a basketball crush and nothing more, I promise.) And you can chalk up Lawson’s advantage in points and assists to the style of play North Carolina employs. Surprisingly, the more slight-of-frame Lucas actually get to the foul line more than Lawson, which proves the kid’s toughness and ability to get into the teeth of the defense. (As well as the fact that Michigan State has played in a few more close games.)

However, those shooting percentages are difficult to ignore. In a one game scenario, either of these guys could be hot or cold. The question is, who is more likely to be hot and who is more likely to be cold? The stats say Ty Lawson is more likely to a great shooting night.

I think the frontcourts for these two teams are very similar (assuming either Raymar Morgan or Goran Suton shows up), and that guard production will likely decide the outcome; if this is true, then it’s hard to choose against the Tar Heels and Lawson.

3 – The Tar Heels have been on a mission since this time last year.

After North Carolina got royally spanked by Kansas in the Final Four last year, the Tar Heels’ terrific trio of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Tyler Hansbrough all decided to come back for another run. Without question, they had one primary goal in mind: win the national title.

Now, I realize that every top echelon team (Michigan State included) enters a season hoping to win a national title. But the Tar Heels entered the season expecting to win a national title, and knowing they had the talent to do it. Plus, they had the extra motivation of erasing last year’s Final Four embarrassment. They did that tonight by beating Villanova, and now they have one more step left to complete their season-long journey.

I think this is a big difference between these two teams.

North Carolina started the season as the #1 team in America in both polls, with no other team receiving a first place vote. Then they went out and dominated the majority of their competition and are peaking at just the right time. Michigan State started out at #6 and #7 in the two polls, had an up and down season, but they too are peaking at the right time. But I get a small sense to happy-to-be-here from Michigan State. I think their goal was to make it to Detroit entering the season. North Carolina’s goal was to win it in Detroit.

You will see below that I think the home court advantage is big for Michigan State, but I also think the confidence, belief, and season-long championship tunnel-vision of North Carolina is a big advantage for the Tar Heels. If North Carolina was going to lay an egg, I think they would have done it tonight in the Final Four; but they stared down the evil memory of last year and overcame it emphatically. Now freed from that pressure, there is only one more sprint to the only finish line they were targeting all season: the National Championship.

A supremely talented team that is on a mission, and peaking as they approach their mission’s achievement, is extremely dangerous. North Carolina heading into Monday night is extremely dangerous.

Three Reasons Why Michigan State Will Beat North Carolina

1 – Michigan State can work the offensive glass and control teams in transition

Watch North Carolina play and you are likely to wear our your neck going back and forth trying to keep up with the action. The Tar Heels push the ball and push the ball and push the ball some more. If you are going to beat North Carolina, you absolutely have to be able to play strong transition defense. Surprisingly though, you do not have to dominate the Tar Heels on the glass to win.

Case in point, in their four losses this year:

• North Carolina outrebounded Maryland 46-38 in an 88-85 loss
• North Carolina outrebounded Wake Forest 46-35 in a 92-89 loss
• North Carolina outrebounded Boston College 45-38 in an 85-78 loss
• North Carolina was outrebounded by Florida State 35-34 in a 73-70 loss

And earlier tonight, Villanova outrebounded North Carolina 50-46, but still lost 83-69. So clearly, rebounding by itself is not a key to beating North Carolina. But here is what is a key: getting solid offensive rebounding from your frontcourt players, while your backcourt guys are heading back to slow down the North Carolina transition. A deeper look at the Carolina losses this year:

• Maryland had 12 offensive rebounds, seven of which came from frontcourt players
• Wake Forest had 8 offensive rebounds, all of which came from frontcourt players
• Boston College had 14 offensive rebounds, 10 of which came from frontcourt players
• Florida State had 12 offensive rebounds, 10 of which came from frontcourt players

And tonight, Villanova had 19 offensive rebounds, but 10 of them came from backcourt players Dwayne Anderson, Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, and Corey Fisher. With those guys battling inside for offensive rebounds, North Carolina was able to get into transition and get open looks. The result was 83 points and 11-22 shooting from downtown.

Look at the Oklahoma-UNC game. The Sooners tied the Tar Heels on the glass 27-27 overall and beat them 10-6 on the offensive end, with all of those offensive rebounds coming from frontcourt guys. The Sooners held the Tar Heels to 72 points, which is 11 less than the Heels scored in any other tournament game and 17 fewer than their season average. Unfortunately for Oklahoma, they simply could not hit a shot themselves (2-19 from downtown) and only scored 60.

If Michigan State shoots 2-19 from downtown, obviously they have no chance. They had a poor shooting night tonight and still went 6-19 from deep. But if they can follow Oklahoma’s blueprint for slowing down UNC’s pace, the Spartans can win a game played in the 70s.

Can they follow that blueprint?

Well, just look at tonight — because they did. Against a much bigger UConn team, the Spartans were outrebounded only 41-40 and won on the offensive side 16-15. Most importantly, neither Kalin Lucas nor Travis Walton contributed even one rebound to the excellent effort on the offensive glass. What they did do is get back and slow down AJ Price and the Huskies’ running game. UConn only shot 42.4% overall and 2-6 from downtown, both stats proving that they did not get many easy shots, most of which typically come out of transition.

2 – To beat North Carolina you must have guards who can score; Michigan State does

Let’s take a look at North Carolina’s three losses again:

• G Greivis Vasquez scored 35 points on 13-24 shooting and 5-10 from downtown in the Maryland loss
• Gs Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders combined for 47 points on 16-28 shooting and 6-13 from downtown in the Boston College loss
• G Jeff Teague scored 34 points on 9-17 shooting and 3-4 from downtown in the Wake Forest loss
• G Toney Douglas scored 27 points on 10-18 shooting and 3-8 from deep in the Florida State loss in the ACC Tournament.

I actually thought that this was a reason why Villanova would have a chance against North Carolina. And while Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, and Corey Fisher combined for 45 points, they were a combined 16-46 from the field. Villanova’s shot selection on Saturday night was, in a word, atrocious.

Michigan State is a much more disciplined team offensively, and should use better shot judgment and be more patient to get open looks. And while I do not think you will see any of their players individually match the output that Vasquez, Rice, Sanders, Teague, and Douglas had in leading their teams to victory, Michigan State does have five players capable of scoring in double-digits and hitting outside shots on a nightly basis: Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, Travis Walton, and Korie Lucious.

Kalin Lucas is the most consistent of the bunch, and he will have to score points on Monday night. He has scored at least 10 in the Spartans’ last four tournament games, including 21 Saturday against UConn. I think Lucas needs to score in the 15-20 range for the Spartans to win, but most importantly they must get balance from these five guys.

The biggest question mark about North Carolina throughout the season was their defense, but they have proven over the last couple of games that they can step it up and play solid D. By no means is it a foregone conclusion that Michigan State’s guards can score enough points to keep up with the Tar Heels, but they do have the talent to do it, which is why they have a chance Monday night.

Without significant point production from the backcourt, you simply do not beat North Carolina; the Spartan guards need to bring it Monday night, and they are capable.

3 – The home court advantage and close game experience

I think these are a big deal. A very big deal.

North Carolina is a team with incredible “spurtability” that likes to lay the hammer down on opponents — a lot like they did against the Spartans early in the year, and a lot like they did against Villanova Saturday. North Carolina jumped out on the Wildcats early, and ‘Nova was never able to get back into it. It looked to me like Villanova was playing as if everything was going against them, and the self-fulfilling prophecy proved true.

The Tar Heels average point differential on the season is 17.8 points (89.8-72.0), so they are used to imposing their will and putting teams away. There is no question in my mind that North Carolina will make some runs on Monday night. They are too good and too talented not to. But with Michigan State having a raucous Detroit crowd willing them on at every opportunity, the Tar Heels will be hard pressed to “knock out” the Spartans.

For a team that gets lots of easy victories, being in a knock-down, drag-out fight can sometimes be challenging. Certainly, North Carolina has won close games this year (79-76 over Virginia Tech, 69-65 over Miami, for example), but they have only played 10 games decided by 10 points or less, going 6-4 in these contests. Michigan State, on the other hand, has been grinding out games all season long. The Spartans average point differential is 9.0 (72.0-63.0) and they are 12-2 in games decided by 10 points or less.

The point differential is obviously a double-edged sword. North Carolina’s shows its potential for dominance, which is why they are about a touchdown favorite on Monday night, and I don’t think anyone would walk away from Monday night completely shocked if North Carolina puts on a dominating performance; we’ve just seen it too often from them in the tournament. However, if Michigan State can battle and keep it close, I like the Spartans’ chances. They are used to playing in closer games and have a great record when it comes to pulling them out.

And that’s where the crowd comes in.

I saw first hand how much a crowd can will a team to stay in a game when the Spartans played in Bloomington this year. Michigan State is one of the finalists for the NCAA title, and Indiana fielded perhaps the worst team in school history. Yet, somehow, the Hoosiers were able to make it only a 5-point game, losing 64-59, with Indiana outscoring the Spartans 32-30 in the second half. With such a great disparity in talent, the Hoosiers used grit, determination, will, and the energy of the home crowd to fight until the end.

There is no question that while North Carolina is the more talented and explosive team, that Michigan State is far closer to the Tar Heels than Indiana was to Michigan State. A little more talent and Indiana might have pulled off the upset. For Michigan State, we have seen their grit, determination, and will — and we know how crazy the Ford Field crowd will be for them Monday night. I think all of those factors will help the Spartans keep it close; and if they do, as the stats prove, I think the Spartans have an advantage in a close game.

Okay, so now that we’ve run down three reasons why each team will win, it’s time to hop onto one side of the fence and choose which of these two teams will actually be the victor, and the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Champion, on Monday night. However, it’s not quite as easy as just picking one or the other.

My gut says that Tom Izzo’s game-planning brilliance, the Spartans’ grit, Kalin Lucas’ leadership, and the support of the Detroit crowd will keep this game close. And in a close game I like the Spartans, as I just mentioned. However, my head says that North Carolina has such a fierce combination of talent and focus that they are simply unbeatable by any team in college basketball right now. Yet, my heart says Michigan State because of my affinity for their coach and my desire to see the Big Ten gain back some of the prestige that has been lost in recent seasons.

It would be easy to go with my head on this one and make the “safe” pick. However, I’m going with the Spartans, and unlike during the games on Saturday night (when I picked UConn and UNC to win) I can actually cheer with my pick on Monday.

But in the end, I’m not just picking the Spartans because I want to. I saved a very important “why they will win” reason for the end, and here it is:

I trust Tom Izzo more in big games than I trust Roy Williams.

Both are great coaches — Hall of Famers, in fact — and both have won championships before. And while both coaches have had successes and failures in big spots, there is just something visceral about Tom Izzo’s fiery, underdog, energetic style that I buy into more than Roy Williams’ style. Unlike the analysis above, I don’t have lots of stats to back my support for Izzo up, and you are well within your right to say I am biased on this one. But I picked against Izzo in the Michigan State-Connecticut game, and I’m not about to do it again on Monday.

Plus, I think an overzealous North Carolina fan may have unwittingly jinxed the Tar Heels.

I just went to the Wikipedia pages for both Tom Izzo and Roy Williams to examine their career records for something quantitative to back up by claim of trusting Izzo more in big games.

Here is a screen shot of what the section on Izzo’s career coaching record looked like:

And here is a screen shot of what the section on Williams’ career coaching record looked like:

Notice anything funny about the Roy Williams page? Someone already edited it to say “National Championship” for this season. (If you go to the page now, it very well could be edited, but that’s why I did the screen capture. Readers of this site know that I like to have fun with Photoshop from time to time, but I promise you that this is exactly how the pages looked.)

Hmm…it’s 1:20 am Central Time on Sunday morning as I write this. Looks like somebody jumped the gun bit declaring a winner. And while it’s not the same as the New England Patriots copyrighting 19-0 before the Super Bowl, it’s still jinx-worthy in my book.

Add up North Carolina’s three reasons and the Game Predictor outcome, and then add up Michigan State’s three reasons plus Izzo over Williams, and the two teams are knotted at 4-4. Throw in the jinx and the tie is broken.

Prediction: Michigan State completes a storybook run to the National Championship by winning a close, hard-fought game on Monday night against the backdrop of a city that loves its Spartans, and certainly deserves some joy in the midst of its terrible economic woes.

I can’t wait for this one. It’s going to be one hell of a championship game.

Who do you think will win the 2009 NCAA Mens Basketball Championship game?

• North Carolina (41%, 249 Votes)
• Michigan State (59%, 356 Votes)

Total Voters: 605

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NCAA Championship Game TV Schedule and Tickets

A real quick post here while watching the Michigan State-UConn game as the two teams battle for the right to play in the Mens NCAA Championship game. So far so good for the Spartans, who look fantastic again. UConn does not at all look like the team I’ve seen play this year. If I’d known they were going to play like this, I never would have picked them!!! Lots of credit to the Spartans though. We’ll see if the Huskies have one more run left.

Anyway, for the Spartans fans out there (presumably), there will now be plenty of UConn fans’ tickets (presumably) out there for buying. And if UConn ends up coming back, the opposite is true. Here is the TV schedule for the Mens NCAA Championship game on Monday, plus some resources to buy tickets if you’re looking to go to the game:

2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game in Detroit

• What: 70th Mens Basketball NCAA Championship Game
• Where: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• When: Monday, April 6th
• TV Time: 9:21 ET on CBS
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Participants: Michigan State and North Carolina
• Point Spread: North Carolina -7.5 (initially on Saturday night…check your favorite sportsbook for most up-to-date info)
• Over-Under: 153
• StubHub: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• RazorGator: 2009 Mens NCAA Championship Game Tickets
• Hotels.com: Find Hotels in Detroit for Mens NCAA Championship Game
• Midwest Sports Fans Analysis: Michigan State v North Carolina Preview and Prediction

Okay…time to go watch the rest of the game and see if UConn and make a miracle happen. They’ve got it within six…

Spartan Love: Homecourt Advantage Will Lead to Final Four Betting Upset

It’s time to go over your Final Four odds for Saturday’s games as the field of 64 has been whittled down to four. Michigan State pulled out an unlikely victory against the top overall seed in the Tournament, and it’ll get the reward of a “home-court” advantage when it takes on Connecticut as a sportsbook underdog.

Michigan State vs Connecticut odds – Saturday, April 4, 6:07 PM ET

The No.2 Spartans took the Midwest region with a 12-point victory over top-seeded Louisville, and they did it with offensive efficiency (46.2 per cent from the floor), while holding the Cardinals to 38.3 per cent. Goran Suton may be playing the best ball of his four-year career, as he went for 19 points and 10 boards against Louisville and having a productive big man is the best thing for Michigan State’s style of play. The Spartans aren’t a flashy team, but they get the job done with toughness and just enough discipline to be capable of a Final Four betting upset.

The Huskies emerged from the West region as a top-seeded winner, as they overcame an uncharacteristic 17 turnovers in a seven-point win over Missouri. For the second straight game, an unlikely source stepped up for the Huskies, and this time it was freshman Kemba Walker, who led the way with 23 points. The Huskies also rank in the top five nationally in rebounding, and this advantage was prominent against the smaller Tigers as UConn outrebounded Mizzou 45-26.

The Huskies are a four-point favorite according to Final Four odds, and these two programs are used to the pressure of the Tournament: since 1999, Michigan State and UConn have combined for three national championships and eight Final Four appearances. The Spartans lead the nation in rebounding, so UConn won’t dominate the boards like they have throughout the Tournament. Michigan State is 75 miles away from Ford Field, so it will definitely have the feel of a home-court advantage and locking down the talented Cardinals gave them plenty of confidence.

In a close and physical game, look for the crowd to be the difference as Michigan State heads to the national-title game with a Final Four betting upset.

Follow the link to see JRod’s detailed preview and prediction of the Michigan State-Connecticut Final Four game on Saturday.

Final Four: Villanova-North Carolina Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Villanova-North Carolina Final Four game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat, just so there is no confusion: I want Villanova to win Saturday night.

In my original bracket I picked the Wildcats to lose in the Elite 8 to Pittsburgh (although I correctly reversed that in my preview last week) and picked North Carolina to make it to the title game before falling to UConn. Yet, while North Carolina is certainly fun to watch and I greatly respect their overall talents and abilities, there is just something special about how this emerging Villanova team is playing during the tournament.

They took UCLA behind the woodshed in round two and announced themselves as a tournament force to be reckoned with. Then, in the Sweet 16, they did college basketball fans everywhere a favor by kicking the snot out of Duke. And last week, Villanova and Pittsburgh treated us to the best game of the tournament, with Nova’s Scottie Reynolds providing the tournament’s most enduring moment thus far: his game-winner in the final seconds that propelled Villanova to Detroit and sent Pittsburgh home.

North Carolina has operated its way through the 2009 NCAA Tournament with surgical precision. After a close 25 or so minutes, they pulled away from LSU in Ty Lawson’s triumphant return from the toe injury that had led many people to question North Carolina coming into the tournament. Then they destroyed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 and laid the hammer down on Oklahoma in the Elite 8.

Now these two teams, with their combined tournament margin of victory of 18.5 points, meet to decide who plays the winner of Michigan State-UConn for the NCAA title. A lot of people are expecting an easy North Carolina victory, and the Tar Heels are favored by 7.5; but Villanova has taught us during this postseason run that you underestimate the boys from Philly at your own risk.

Unfortunately for Villanova, North Carolina underestimated their Final Four opponent last year and got smoked in the process. With almost the exact same team back again this year, I do not think the Tar Heels will be taking anyone lightly.

Let’s take a quick look at the particulars for the Nova-UNC game on Saturday night and then proceed with the analysis and prediction.

Villanova-North Carolina Final Four Preview and Prediction

• Tickets: 2009 Final Four Tickets from StubHub
• Final Four Quick Preview
• Final Four Date: Saturday, April 4th
• TV: CBS (or March Madness On Demand)
• Villanova-UNC Game Time: 8:47 PM ET
• Location: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Spread: North Carolina -7.5
• Over-Under: 159
• ESPN Team Pages: Villanova | North Carolina

(FYI…the above spread and over-under are from BetUs on 3/31 at 7:30 am, so you may want to check there for the most up-to-date info if you see this later in the week. And I realize that this number is probably different from what Game Predictor shows below. I don’t know where ESPN gets that spread info.)

Now, as we always do in this spot, let’s take a look at the matchup between these two teams based on their season averages in the five statistical categories we have used to analyze every game thus far since the Sweet 16:

• Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.155 | Villanova – 1.076
• Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.932 | Villanova – 0.935
• Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.416 | Villanova – 1.120
• Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.765 | Villanova – 0.753
• Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.414 | Villanova – 0.403

North Carolina’s numbers are pretty impressive aren’t they? One thing is for sure: this is the best matchup since the Sweet 16 in terms of free throw shooting.

Well we know from experience that Game Predictor will spit out North Carolina as a heavy favorite. The question is by how much. Let’s look:

• Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 74.9% | Villanova – 25.1%
• Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 74.3 | Villanova – 67.7
• Odds to Cover Spread (Nova +7): North Carolina – 57.8% | Villanova – 42.2%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

So Game Predictor basically believes that if North Carolina and Villanova took the court to play their Final Four matchup ten times, that North Carolina would win seven or eight of them. And I do not disagree with that at all. However, as we know, they only play once. And there are two important reasons why Villanova absolutely has hope heading into Saturday:

1. 1985
2. April 5, 2008

The first reason, of course, refers to the legendary upset victory by Villanova over Georgetown in the 1985 NCAA Championship game. The Wildcats were seeded 8th and somehow found a way to overcome Patrick Ewing and the Hoyas. The second reason refers to last year’s Final Four, when North Carolina was absolutely demolished by Kansas 84-66. That North Carolina team was led by Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, and Wayne Ellington. This year’s North Carolina team is led by Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, and Wayne Ellington. If they are capable of throwing up that kind of egg in the Final Four once, does it not stand to reason that they are capable of doing it again?

And does Roy Williams really – I mean really — have your complete trust in the NCAA Tournament? How many times has this guy fallen below expectations in March? I understand that the expectations and the bar he set at Kansas and North Carolina have been ridiculously high, and Roy Williams has certainly compiled an impressive record and list of accomplishments, including Final Fours and Elite 8s and even one title. But If this North Carolina team, favored by most to win the title, falls just short of that goal, they will only be carrying on the postseason legacy of Roy Williams: close, but rarely (just once) a cigar.

Starting to feel good Villanova fans!?!

Well, calm down. The odds of winning are still not even close to being stacked in your favor.

But let’s look a little deeper and see if we can’t find some reasons why Villanova will win this game. Carolina is the prohibitive favorite, but nothing is guaranteed in sports, which is what makes them so great. So as we did with Michigan State-UConn, let’s look at three reasons why Villanova will win and then three reasons why they will not.

Three Reasons Why Villanova Can Beat North Carolina

1 — All you have to do is stop Ty Lawson

Take a look at the four losses North Carolina suffered this year and you begin to understand why so many people in Chapel Hill were worried about Ty Lawson’s toe heading into the tournament.

In North Carolina’s ACC Tournament loss to Florida State, Lawson did not play. Bobby Frasor did a wonderful job of filling in by going 0-1 from the field, scoring 2 points, grabbing 2 rebounds, and dishing out 1 assist…in 33 minutes, which surprisingly was not enough.

In North Carolina’s three regular season losses, all ACC contests to Boston College, Wake Forest, and Maryland, Lawson was not his usual all-around great self. In UNC’s loss to Maryland, Lawson did score 24 points, but had only two assists against four turnovers in 41 minutes of play. Against Wake Forest, a 92-89 loss for the Tar Heels, Lawson played 34 minutes and only scored 9 points on 4-12 from the field with 5 assists and 4 turnovers. And in North Carolina’s 85-78 loss to Boston College, Ty Lawson scored 10 points on 3-13 shooting with 4 assists and 4 turnovers.

The key to beating North Carolina is pretty simple: shut down Ty Lawson; and Villanova has very good guards, with experience playing against very good guards in the Big East. (More on this to come later.)

2 — Villanova has momentum and confidence

Villanova has beaten two good teams (UCLA and Duke) into submission and then pulled out a gritty, exciting win in the final seconds over one of the four or five best teams in the last country last weekend. Plus, Villanova has the Big East arrogance that they are well within their right to have, knowing that they duked it out in one of the best conferences ever this season. The Wildcats will not be intimidated by the mystique and 2009 reputation of mighty North Carolina.

To contrast, look at North Carolina’s last two opponents.

Sure, Oklahoma played a great game against Syracuse in the Elite 8, but that was just a week after they endured a knock-down, drag-out fight against a Michigan team that — I’m sorry Wolverine fans — just is not that good. And this came on the heels of a poor performance in the Big 12 Tournament and over the last few weeks of the season as the Sooners struggled to return to form after Blake Griffin’s injury. Plus, the Sooners relied a freshman guard in Willie Warren to help shoulder the scoring load, and he just was not up to the task.

In the Sweet 16, North Carolina took on a Gonzaga team that had been taken to the final seconds by Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a good team, but by no means great. It had to be in the back of the Zags’ collective mind that they were within a hair of losing to Western Kentucky; how in the hell could they compete with one of the most talented teams in America?

Villanova will have no such self-doubt and will not be intimidated. And say what you will, but North Carolina dominated Oklahoma and Gonzaga as much mentally as they did physically and from an execution standpoint.

Villanova has an experienced backcourt led by a guy in Scottie Reynolds who is proving himself to be a player who comes through in big March moments. He is that one guy that every championship team needs who will come through in big situations, regardless of how well he is playing that night. Case in point: the Pitt game. Reynolds was 4-11 from the field and 0-3 from downtown. He had 1 assist and 4 turnovers. Yet he came through with the game-winning play.

Plus, Villanova is one of the few schools in America that can legitimately lay claim to a pedigree that includes one of the five or ten biggest upsets in the history of sports. The underdog role suits this school just fine. I think that matters. A lot.

Combine all of these individual components and Villanova can look North Carolina in the eye and not blink, and that is huge.

3 — If you are going to beat North Carolina, you better have a guy who can deliver an incredible individual performance.

Look at the evidence:

• 85-78 loss to Boston College: Tyrese Rice scores 25 points, grabs 8 boards, and dishes on 5 assists (and gets 22 points and 6 rebounds worth of help, plus 4-7 3-point shooting, from Rakim Sanders).
• 92-89 loss to Wake Forest: Jeff Teague scores 34 points on 9-17 shooting (3-4 from downtown) while grabbing 6 boards and dishing 4 assists.
• 88-85 loss to Maryland: Greivis Vasquez is sensational, scoring 35 points in 44 minutes of play on 13-24 shooting (5-10 from downtown). He also has 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
• 73-70 loss to Florida State: Toney Douglas scores 27 points on 10-18 shooting, plus 4 assists and 4 boards.

The purported Achilles’ Heel for North Carolina all season long has been their defense. They are prone to lapses every now and then, and on those nights individual players who are ready to step up can lead their team to victory. Does Villanova have a player capable of such a transcendent individual performance on a big stage?

We already mentioned him: Scottie Reynolds.

Reynolds popped for 40 points once already this season, in a road victory over Seton Hall. He scored 31 in a road win over Providence. He scored 27 in a dominating win for Villanova over a good Marquette team.

And if Reynolds is not completely on his game, or if Villanova needs two outstanding performances like Boston College had against UNC, the Wildcats have Dante Cunningham. Cunningham scored 31 points in a win over Syracuse this year and has numerous big games in big spots like his double-doubles against UCLA and Duke in the tournament.

Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham are good enough to carry Villanova for a night and lead a victory, even over a team as good as North Carolina.

Three Reasons Why Villanova Cannot Beat North Carolina

1 — Both Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham, as good as they are, have blemishes on their big game resume this year

As good as Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham have proven themselves to be in some big spots this year, they have also played poorly in some of Villanova’s losses to good teams.

Cunningham had just 7 points and 6 rebounds in a 93-72 loss to West Virgnia earlier this year. He also was held to just 6 points and 3 rebounds in 14 minutes of play before fouling out against UConn. Granted, North Carolina does not have anyone like Hasheem Thabeet, but this is still a red flag.

For Reynolds’ part, he also also proven that he can shrink against good teams in big spots. In the Big East Tournament loss to Louisville, Reynolds scored 2 points on 1-6 shooting. In a loss to Texas early in the year he had 10 points on 2-7 shooting. And as well as he played in the clutch moments last weekend, Reynolds has not made more than 5 shots, or shot better than 50% from the field, in any NCAA Tournament game this year.

So while Reynolds and Cunningham are very good, sometimes great players, and are good more often than they are not, there is no margin for error on the part of either Saturday night. Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham need to be Oustanding (yes, with a capital “O”) on for Villanova to have a chance against North Carolina. They have proven to be capable of such performances in big spots, but have also shown the capability to shrink in big moments as well.

Which Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham will show up? The answer to that question will determine whether or not Villanova can compete.

2 — Shutting down Ty Lawson is no easy task

Yet another paradoxical dichotomy in this list of reasons. While it is true that the Tar Heels become a much more beatable team if Ty Lawson is having an off night, he very rarely has them. Look at Lawson’s game log for this season. He had terrible numbers against Georgia Tech and the Tar Heels still won by 30, but for the most part, Lawson has been very consistent outside of the four losses cited above.

And have you seen him play in the tournament? Is there anything that leads you to believe he won’t have a great game on Saturday?

In three tournament games, Lawson is 20-35 from the field, 14-16 from the line, and 7-11 from downtown. He has scored 23, 19, and 19 points in the three games he has played and has dished out 20 assists against 2 turnovers. And the final rankings of the last three Carolina opponents have been #20, #10, and #8. So he is doing this against solid competition, regardless of how intimidated they may have looked.

Simply put, Ty Lawson has been the best and most important player in the NCAA Tournament thus far.

Villanova has shown the ability to shut down good point guards. Just last weekend they held Levance Fields to only 10 points on 2-8 shooting, although he did have a 6/0 assist/turnover line. Against Syracuse earlier this year, they held Jonny Flynn to 5-17 shooting and only 12 points. Conversely, in a loss to UConn, AJ Price scored 29 points on 10-13 shooting and had 5 assists.

It is hard to predict Ty Lawson doing anything but having a stellar night. Villanova is capable of frustrating him and forcing Lawson to struggle, but it’s more of an I’ll-believe-it-when-I-see-it type proposition as far as I’m concerned. Ty Lawson has earned that trust with his play this season.

3 — There is a reason Villanova was a #3 seed: inconsistency

When Villanova is on their game, the Wildcats can obviously play with anybody in the country. However, they are also prone to having that game every now and then where they inexplicably play poorly and struggle.

For instance, after knocking off then-#20 Syracuse and then-#12 Marquette in back-to-back games in February, ‘Nova lost 93-72 to West Virginia. Furthermore, to begin December after a 12-1 start to the year, Villanova dropped 3 out of 5 games, losing to top-25 teams Marquette, Louisville, and UConn during the stretch while beating only Seton Hall and St. John’s. And after a thrilling win over Marquette in the Big East Tournament, the Wildcats were shellacked 69-55 by a Louisville team that was on an absolute roll.

I hate to say it, but I see some parallels between what happened in the Big East Tournament and what could happen on Saturday night.

The last four games of the season for Villanova:

• 77-60 dominant win at Notre Dame
• 97-80 dominant win over Providence
• 76-75 tough, hard-fought win over a very good Marquette team
• 69-55 loss to a streaking Louisville squad

The last four games of the tournament for Villanova:

• 89-69 dominant win over UCLA
• 77-54 dominant win over Duke
• 78-76 tough, hard-fought win over a very good Pitt team
• ??-?? ???? to a streaking North Carolina squad

Substitute the ?’s with the same result from the Louisville game and you being to understand my trepidation. And while I realize that UCLA and Duke are much better than Notre Dame and Providence, the fact remains that this is a troubling pattern for Villanova that I cannot get past when analyzing this game — no matter how much I want to pick the Wildcats.

So it should come as no surprise to you that I begrudgingly pick North Carolina to not just win the game Saturday night, but to cover the spread. And it should also come as no surprise that, just as I said after picking UConn to beat Michigan State, I hope I am wrong.

In both games Saturday night I will be cheering against my own picks. I want the underdogs Michigan State and Villanova to win, and I correctly picked them both to triumph as underdogs in the Elite 8. I just do not see in the stats, season history, or matchups, legitimate reasons to believe that they will be able to capture the magic for one more weekend.

Please Villanova fans, as I implored the Spartans fans to do, use the comment section to tell me why I am wrong and to give me hope heading into Saturday. I will be firmly in your corner, cheering loudly and hoping for a ‘Nova upset over the Tar Heels — I will just be very, very surprised if that hope turns into reality.

Of course, there was even less belief in 1985 and we all know how that turned out…

What do you think?

Who do you think will win the Final Four game between North Carolina and Villanova?

• Villanova
• North Carolina

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Final Four: Michigan State-Connecticut Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Michigan State-Connecticut Final Four game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

This is the Final Four matchup, Michigan State versus UConn, that I picked from the very start. I have to admit that I became less and less confident that it would actually happen as the tournament unfolded, but it has proven a few tournament cliches true:

• Teams with talented, experienced, and battle-tested guards win in March.
• Teams that get consistent production from their low-post players win in March.
• Free throw shooting matters in March.

Michigan State and UConn have not been perfect in these areas through four games, but they have been better and more consistent in these areas than any other team on their side of the bracket. And the reason is the two incredible coaches that are on the sideline: Tom Izzo and Jim Calhoun.

UConn coach Jim Calhoun started his career at Northeastern University in 1972. He remained their coach until 1986 and compiled a 248-137 record. In five out of his last six seasons there, they made the NCAA Tournament, three times advancing to the second round. In 1986, Calhoun took over a struggling Connecticut program and went a combined 13-35 in the Big East during his first three seasons in Storrs. Since then, he has won two national championships, reached the Final Four this year, made five other Elite 8 appearances, four additional Sweet 16 appearances, and earned 556 victories against only 204 losses. Without question, Jim Calhoun is among the top handful of coaches in America today.

Also with him in the handful of top coaches is Tom Izzo of Michigan State. I have made no secret of my basketball-man-crush on Tom Izzo, and the Spartans’ tournament run this season is only reinforcing what I’ve already thought: Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches in America, period. You can debate who is the best, but you better include Izzo in the debate. (And I hope that someday his protege Tom Crean is in the debate as well, but that remains to be seen.)

Just look at the resume Tom Izzo has compiled in East Lansing since taking over for Jud Heathcote in 1995. Izzo is 335-136 and has tied or won the Big Ten conference five times. His true greatness, however, can be seen in the NCAA Tournament.

The Spartans made the NIT during Izzo’s first two years in town, but have made the NCAA Tournament every season since 1997-98. During that span, Izzo and the Spartans have won a national championship (2000), reached the Final Four four other tmes (1999, 2001, 2005, 2009), reached the Elite 8 in 2003, and have been to the Sweet 16 two other times (1998, 2008). The Spartans’ masterful upset stomping of Louisville yesterday in Indianapolis was a microcosm of the tournament greatness that Izzo has consistently displayed at Michigan State.

This Saturday in Detroit, Izzo and the Spartans battle Calhoun and the Huskies for the chance to play for all the marbles on Monday night. UConn and its Big East pedigree are favored, but if we learned anything from this weekend, it is this: don’t count the Spartans out. They knocked off the Big East champions in impressive fashion and will no doubt give UConn all it can handle.

Let’s take a look at the particulars and then break down the game itself.

Michigan State-UConn Final Four Preview and Prediction

• Tickets: 2009 Final Four Tickets from StubHub
• Final Four Quick Preview
• Final Four Date: Saturday, April 4th
• TV: CBS (or March Madness On Demand)
• MSU-UConn Game Time: 6:07 PM ET
• Location: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Spread: Connecticut -4.5
• Over-Under: 135
• ESPN Team Pages: Michigan State Spartans | Connecticut Huskies

(FYI…the above spread and over-under are from BetUs on 3/30 at 7:45 am, so you may want to check there for the most up-to-date info if you see this later in the week. I don’t know where ESPN gets the spread info listed below that is used on the Game Predictor.)

And now, it’s time to analyze this matchup.

As you know, I have been using the ESPN Game Predictor to analyze every game since the Sweet 16 started. Based on the output from the Game Predictor, plus my own intuition, I have correctly picked 11 out of the last 12 games (missing only on Syracuse-Oklahoma). And that’s straight up, I don’t know what the record is against the spread, but it’s probably 9 or 10 out of 12. (I don’t gamble, so I don’t pay attention to how the spread picks do.)

Either way, I have become significantly more accurate forecasting games with some actual data as opposed to just going on gut feeling and my limited experience watching all of these teams play.

With all that said, let’s see how these two teams stack up with respect to the same five statistical categories I have used to predict every game thus far:

• Offensive Efficiency: UConn – 1.096 | Michigan State – 1.058
• Defensive Efficiency: UConn – 0.891 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: UConn – 1.268 | Michigan State – 1.181
• Free Throw %: UConn – 0.679 | Michigan State – 0.698
• Defensive Field Goal %: UConn – 0.376 | Michigan State – 0.414

UConn holds advantages in four of the five statistical categories, although not significant advantages. Still, I expect a pretty strong pick by Game Predictor in the direction of UConn because of how the stats came out and by virtue of their seeding of their strength of schedule. Let’s see:

• Odds to Win Game: UConn – 60.0% | Michigan State – 40.0%
• Most Likely Final Score: UConn – 72.3 | Michigan State – 69.4
• Odds to Cover Spread (MSU +4): UConn – 53.6% | Michigan State – 46.4%
• Confidence Level: 3 Stars

Now, before I get into my thoughts on this game, I want to say a few very important things to all of the Spartans fans out there:

• The odds of Michigan State winning the Louisville game, according to Game Predictor, were 83.1% – 16.9%, with a confidence level of 4 stars. We know how that turned out.
• In my original bracket (which currently sits at 96.9% in the ESPN Bracket Challenge!) I picked UConn to beat Michigan State and eventually win it all over North Carolina.
• Bracket be damned, I will be rooting like crazy for Michigan State to win on Saturday.

However — and it pains me to say this — I do not have the same gut feeling about Michigan State beating UConn as I did about the Spartans defying the odds to beat Louisville.

Seeing as how this is a Midwest sports blog, and the Spartans have become my adopted team during this year’s tournament, let’s take a look at this game from an MSU perspective. Three reasons why they will win, and three reasons why they won’t.

Three Reasons Why Michigan State Will Beat Connecticut

1 — Goran Suton is playing out of his mind right now

Goran Suton, as he was against Kansas and Louisville, will be the key for Michigan State. In both of my previous Michigan State previews I’ve discussed the importance of Raymar Morgan, but the reality has been that Goran Suton has been the perfect Robin to Kalin Lucas’ Batman. Suton scored 19 points and had 10 boards against Louisville after going for 20-9 against Kansas. The Spartans need similar production from him on Saturday, and there is no reason to believe he can’t provide it.

Here is what else he needs to do: draw Hasheem Thabeet away from the basket at times, but also get the ball in the post and be savvy enough to draw fouls on the UConn big man. Connecticut only lost three games this year, two of them to Pitt and one to Georgetown. In one of the Pitt losses by UConn, Thabeet only played 23 minutes before fouling out with 5 points, 2 blocks and 4 rebounds. Against Georgetown, Thabeet played 34 minutes but only scored 4 points and had 7 rebounds to go along with 7 blocks. If Michigan State can get Thabeet in foul trouble and/or force him to struggle on the offensive end, it will greatly improve their chances. Goran Suton has to play a key role in any Thabeet neutralization strategy, and he certainly appears up to the task right now.

2 — Michigan State will be playing before a home-court crowd in Detroit

East Lansing is only a 90 minute from drive Detroit, and obviously there are lots of Spartan fans in the city already. Not since Duke played in the Final Four in Charlotte (eventually losing the title game to Arkansas) has a team enjoyed this kind of Final Four home court advantage. And it’s the best of both worlds for the Spartans: they were great away from home this year, but now get to play away from home in an environment that will still be hostile for their opponent. As an underdog, the home crowd can help to give the Spartans momentum. If Michigan State can keep the game close, the crowd will be their best friend.

3 — Kalin Lucas is one of the most underrated great players in America

I realize that Kalin Lucas was named Big Ten Player of the Year, but I still do not think he gets the recognition he deserves. I’m a Big Ten fan, and I did not truly come to appreciate Lucas until this tourney run. All he has done in the last two games is outduel Kansas’ scintillating point guard Sherron Collins, and then completely control the pace and tempo of the Louisville game against physical guys that were bigger than him. Lucas is a great ball-handler, an excellent passer, and an outstanding shooter. He is great spotting up or off the drive looking to score or to dish. He is slight of frame, and will be going up against a tremendously large and physical defense in UConn, but his quickness can help him overcome this disadvantage. If he can get into the lane, draw Hasheem Thabeet, and find open cutters or spot-up shooters, Michigan State can get open looks. If the Spartans knock them down, they will stay right with the Huskies.

3a — Depending on if there are any more revelations in the UConn recruiting controversy, the Huskies could be distracted

I don’t think this will be an issue, and it won’t e if nothing new develops with this story. I think Jim Calhoun is perfectly adept at dealing with the inevitable questions he will get about this story, and UConn did not seem the least bit distracted by it in disposing of Purdue and Missouri. I throw this out only as a caveat, since I am making this prediction on Monday. There are plenty of 24-hour news cycles between now and Saturday for the dust to be kicked up and distractions to take hold; but in the end, I don’t think the potential recruiting scandal at UConn will influence this game one way or the other.

Three Reasons Why Connecticut will beat Michigan State

1 — Hasheem Thabeet is a presence unlike any Michigan State has dealt with this year.

Let’s be honest: Hasheem Thabeet is unlike any presence any opposing team has dealt with this year in college basketball. 13.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks per game are the numbers, but Thabeet obviously affects a basketball game in multiple ways. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he will turn Michigan State into a jump shooting team, while offering UConn the ability to score down low on the other end.

Michigan State will undoubtedly try to draw Thabeet away from the basket by putting Suton out high like they did against Louisville. When this happens, I would not be surprised to see the Huskies let someone like Jeff Adrien or Stanley Robinson match up against him. Adrien is 6′7 with a big body and Robinson is 6′9 with a long wingspan. They can take turns bodying Suton up and making it hard for him to shoot his jumper, while simultaneously allowing Thabeet to roam the paint and take away the drive.

Either way, one of UConn’s great strengths is their ability to match up defensively with anyone they play. Tom Izzo will have to be ready to adjust and Kalin Lucas will need to penetrate into the teeth of the defense to create havoc.

2 — AJ Price is every bit as good as Kalin Lucas

Price is one of my favorite players in the country, and another guy that I think is underappreciated. he averages 14.7 points and 4.8 assists per game and is the Huskies’ most consistent shooter from three-point range. You need excellent guard play to win in the Final Four, especially against a team with a player as good as Kalin Lucas, and AJ Price gives UConn that dimension. And as Kemba Walker showed against Missouri, he can step in and provide clutch plays as well.

I like Price’s confidence and his calm demeanor and he will not get rattled even if Ford Field sounds like the Breslin Center. He has gone toe-to-toe with the best point guards in the Big East, playing in some of the most hostile environments, and has proven that he is one of the best in the country.

3 — Michigan State is a better free throw shooting team, but UConn gets to the line more often

As you can see above, the Spartans hold a 69.8% to 67.9% advantage over UConn in free throw shooting. However, for the season, Connecticut made 641 free throws out of 943 attempts, while Michigan State made 577 free throws on 828 attempts. The Huskies are big and physical at every position and the Spartans have to be careful not to foul too often. As we saw during the Elite 8 (especially in the Louisville-MSU and Pitt-Villanova games) the refs are calling things tight in the tournament. Against Louisville, Michigan State was whistled for 22 fouls and the Cardinals shot 18 free throws to the Spartans’ 7. Yet, Louisville only shot 55.6% from the line.

I don’t think the Spartans will be so fortunate if there is nearly a 2:1 ratio in free throw attempts and the ratio favors UConn.

The Huskies hit 26-32 from the line against Missouri, and 19-30 from the line against Purdue. In both games they dominated in free throws made and attempted, and the disparity in free throws made was larger than the final margin of victory. This is a huge part of the winning formula for UConn and the Spartans must be mindful of limiting the Huskies’ free attempts at the line.

With the way the tournament is being called this year, and UConn’s size and style of play, I think this could ultimately be the Spartans undoing.

As I said above, I picked UConn to win it all before the tournament started, but I have thrown my full fan support behind Michigan State. I love Tom Izzo, I love the way Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton, and Goran Suton are playing, and I love the fact that the city of Detroit gets to cheer on the home state team as we culminate another thrilling NCAA Tournament.

I just don’t think Michigan State will get by UConn.

I think they will keep it close and beat the 4-point spread, and I certainly think that they can win — in fact, I will never again be surprised by a Tom Izzo team winning a game it is not “supposed” to win in the tournament. And while I think that the Spartans’ chances are better than 40% to win, as predicted by Game Predictor, I think the chances are only about 46-47%. So if you ask me who I think will win, I have to answer UConn.

I hope I’m wrong, and I’ll be cheering hard that I am. But I do think that the most fitting way for this season to end is with an all Big East championship game. I don’t know yet whether or not I am predicting Villanova to upset North Carolina, but I am predicting Connecticut to hold up their end of the bargain.

What do you think?

Who do you think will win the first Final Four game on Saturday night between Michigan State and Connecticut?

• Connecticut
• Michigan State

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Now that I’ve given you my keys to the UConn-MSU game, and my prediction, feel free to use the comment section for yours. I only chose three on each side, but there are plenty of other important storylines and matchups that will help determine this game. Spartan fans, your job is to please convince me why I’m wrong and give me more hope heading into Saturday.

2009 Final Four Quick Preview: Schedule, Info, Final Four History

The 2009 Final Four takes place in Detroit, a city that we all know is struggling in more ways than one.

The woes of the auto industry have been well documented, and there appears to be no immediate relief in sight. Certainly, Detroit is receiving significant bailout money from the government, but there is widespread debate over whether such money will help in the long-run, or only be a short-term band-aid for a problem that might require failure and reorganization to truly correct itself. The auto industry received $17.4 billion in loans from the government in the first round of federal bailouts, and President Barack Obama is scheduled to unveil phase two of the auto bailout Monday, March 30.

In addition to the terrible economic problems facing the city, sports have not provided much relief this year.

The Detroit Lions completed the first 0-16 season in NFL history. The Detroit Tigers fell well below expectations in 2008 despite adding stars like Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to an already stacked team. The Detroit Pistons traded away former championship hero Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson and are struggling to hang onto the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The only bright spot has been the Detroit Red Wings, who currently are in 2nd place in the Western Conference with 107 points.

But next weekend, Detroit will be the center of the sports world when the Final Four comes to town. And to give the hometown fans something to cheer for, nearby Michigan State upset Louisville today to represent the region and provide some joy for sports fans in Motown.

Here is your Final Four Quick Preview, plus some relevant links, then the schedule for next weekend’s action:

2009 Final Four Quick Preview and Schedule

• What: 70th Final Four
• Where: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
• When: Saturday, April 4th and Monday, April 6th
• Final Four Participants: Michigan State, Connecticut, Villanova, North Carolina
• Official Website: 2009 Final Four in Detroit
• Michigan State-Connecticut Preview and Prediction (coming soon)
• Villanova-North Carolina Preview and Prediction (coming soon)
• History: List of Past NCAA Champions
• History: List of Past Final Four Participants
• History: List of Past NCAA Tournament MOPs
• History: One Shining Moment
• Tickets: StubHub: 2009 Final Four Tickets
• Tickets:RazorGator: 2009 Final Four Tickets
• Accommodations: Priceline.com: Save up to 50% on Travel to Detroit for Final Four
• Accommodations: Travelocity: Book Air + Hotel together for Final Four in Detroit

And here is the TV Schedule, announcers, and spread information for the 2009 Final Four: I’ll update the spread information as soon as it is available.

2009 Final Four TV Schedule, Site, Announcers, Spread

As I did for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games, I will be providing in-depth previews and predictions and updating spread/line information as it becomes available. (And FYI…since I started using Game Predictor to guide my picks, I’ve gone 10 for 11 picking the games, pending the final score of the North Carolina-Oklahoma game. My only goof was the Syracuse-Oklahoma game.)

Who do you think will win it all?

Who do you think will win the National Championship at the 2009 Final Four in Detroit?

• Connecticut (11%, 26 Votes)
• Villanova (12%, 28 Votes)
• North Carolina (34%, 77 Votes)
• Michigan State (43%, 96 Votes)

Total Voters: 227

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Interesting notes:

– This is the first time the city of Detroit has ever hosted a Final Four.

– The last time a “hometown” team played in the Final Four, as Michigan State is doing this year (approximate distance from East Lansing to Detroit: 92.5 miles), was 1994 when Duke lost to Arkansas in the championship game in Charlotte, NC.

– In 1988, Kansas won the national championship when the Final Four was played in Kansas City.

– Purdue and Louisville played in 1980 Final Four in Indianapolis; Louisville won the title.

– I’m sure there are a few others if you go back further in Final Four history, but certainly it does not happen often.

We will be updating the site and this page often over the next few days leading up to the Final Four, so check back often. As usual, it should be an exciting and compelling weekend of basketball, capped by the most poignant One Shining Moment yet.

LOTD Video: Scottie Reynolds Shot Beats Pitt, Villanova to Final Four

What a freaking game.

I was anticipating Pitt-Villanova to be highly entertaining, closely contested game that came down to the wire, and it was even better than I expected. It was also perhaps my most shining moment as a Sweet 16/Elite 8 prognosticator, as Villanova’s close victory was exactly what I predicted.

And the MMP (Most Memorable Play) of the Villanova victory over Pitt came courtesy of Villanova’s superb guard Scottie Reynolds. The video is below, courtesy of Robert Littal at Black Sports Online:

Video: Scottie Reynolds Last Second Buzzer Beater Leads Villanova to Victory Over Pitt

LOTD: Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds Destroying Many Office Brackets With the Buzzer Beater — (Black Sports Online)

I was unable to actually watch this play live, which is why I hopped online to find video of the Scottie Reynolds buzzer beater as quickly as I could. I was out late last night at a sublime authentic German restaurant for my girlfriend’s grandfather’s 92nd birthday. One of the attendees had the March Madness app on his iphone, and we were able to watch up until about 0:30 left, when the signal went out. We finished listening on the radio, first as Levance Fields made his clutch free throws, and then as Scotte Reynolds dashed the Panthers’ dream with his incredible drive to the basket.

Reynolds actually did not have one of his best games statistically in Villanova’s Elite 8 victory over Pitt. He finished with 15 points and shot 7-7 from the line, but only had 2 rebounds and 1 assist. Dwayne Anderson stepped up huge and was the statistical MVP for Villanova. He scored 17 points, grabbed 6 rebounds, and had four steals.

And lost in the excitement over Scottie Reynolds’ buzzer beater was the superb play of Pitt’s trio of Levance Fields, Sam Young, and DeJuan Blair. Pitt is going home, but it certainly is not the fault of any of these three guys. Levance Fields made the clutch free throws as mentioned, and also dished out 6 assists against 0 turnovers. DeJuan Blair had another double-double, going for 20-10. And Sam Young was outstanding, scoring 28 points, snaring 7 rebounds, and dominating inside and outside.

Simply put, it was a great game played between two of the five best teams in America.

Unfortunately for Pitt, Villanova just appears to be one of those teams that has caught lightning in a bottle this March, as evidenced by the last second dash of Scottie Reynolds. Villanova is on an absolute roll, having beaten UCLA, Duke, and Pitt in three straight games. That is a pretty impressive list of victims.

Today, they will find out who they play next: North Carolina or Oklahoma. Villanova will be lower seed regardless, but it is going to be very hard to pick against them.

Elite 8: North Carolina-Oklahoma Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the North Carolina-Oklahoma Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

(You have my apologies in advance for the relative shortness of this Elite 8 preview. I’ve spent a good 2 to 3 hours on each of the others, but I’m under the gun after an oil change for my car took a little longer than expected and a huge birthday bash for my girlfriend’s grandfather is quickly impending. But I’ll try to go as in-depth as I can on this one.)

Both North Carolina and Oklahoma head into Sunday’s South Regional Final riding incredible waves of momentum.

North Carolina has their leader back in Ty Lawson, looking healthier by the minute, and he led them to victory over an overmatched Gonzaga team last night. Lawson scored 19 points and had 9 assists in the 98-77 North Carolina victory, while Tyler Hansbrough poured in 24 points on efficient 8-10 shooting and had 10 rebounds.

Likewise, Blake Griffin is showing no ill-effects from the injury that sidelined him towards the end of the regular season and Oklahoma is beginning to look like the team that many thought was going to be a #1 seed before slumping down the stretch. OU completely took apart Syracuse last night, winning 84-71, and earning the only victory I did not predict from the eight Sweet 16 games.

Tomorrow’s game should be a good one, and certainly more competitive than the Sweet 16 games for each. Here are the particulars:

North Carolina-Oklahoma South Regional Final – Elite 8 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: South Regional Final – Elite 8 Tickets
• South Regional Breakdown
• Date: Sunday, March 29
• TV Time: 5:05 PM on CBS
• Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -6.5
• Over-Under: 164

Now let’s hop over to Game Predictor for a quick look at this one, using the same statistical categories we’ve used for each Sweet 16 game and each Elite 8 game:

• Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.156 | Oklahoma – 1.125
• Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.933 | Oklahoma – 0.956
• Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.425 | Oklahoma – 1.118
• Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.762 | Oklahoma – 0.675
• Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.413 | Oklahoma – 0.395

And the prediction from Game Predictor:

• Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 72.9% | Oklahoma – 27.1%
• Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 74.5 | Oklahoma – 66.9
• Odds to Cover Spread (OU +6.5): North Carolina – 61.4% | Oklahoma – 38.6%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

I am not surprised by the Game Predictor analysis, nor do I disagree.

Oklahoma is a very good team, and Blake Griffin is obviously monster. The battle between he and Tyler Hansbrough is going to be a great one, and features 2 of perhaps the 5 five best college basketball players over the last half decade. Griffin most likely will not be a four-year player like Hansbrough has been, and has much more upside at the next level because of his athleticism, but Hansbrough is a wily old veteran who will come as close as anyone can to battling Griffin to a draw.

That leaves the rest of the two teams’ respective rosters to decide this game. And unless Griffin just dominates Hansbrough, I don’t see the rest of the Oklahoma team being able to do enough to keep pace with North Carolina.

Willie Warren is a fine player, especially for a freshman, and has a bright future, but Ty Lawson is 3-year veteran with tournament experience whose vast improvement from downtown has provided another weapon for a North Carolina offense that already had plenty. The Tar Heels average an astounding 90.5 points per game, utilizing the same attacking style of offense that was on display last night against Gonzaga. Oklahoma has shown that they can play in the 90s this season, but against the likes of Baylor and Texas Tech, neither of which, obviously, is the caliber of North Carolina.

For Oklahoma to compete, Warren will obviously need to be on his game from a scoring standpoint, and guys like Taylor Griffin, Tony Crocker, and Austin Johnson will need to defy their season averages and two or three of them will need to get into double figures. North Carolina has five guys who average in double figures on the season, and while Oklahoma displayed solid defense last night against Syracuse, they will have to step it up another notch or two to contain this potent Tar Heels offense.

Honestly, it looks to me like this Tar Heels team is on a mission that was going to be derailed by one thing: Ty Lawson’s injury. Considering his second half performance against LSU, and his efficiently explosive 27 minutes against Gonzaga, I think we can remove his injury from the list of concerns for the Tar Heels. Said Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt after last night’s loss to Carolina:

“If they play like that, they’re going to win the national championship,” Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt said. “They’d hit every shot, it seemed like. You can’t do anything on teams like that.”

I’m not ready to go quite that far yet, but it’s hard to argue with Hytvelt’s sentiment.

I predicted North Carolina to reach the title game, but to lose to UConn. And whether or not UConn ends up winning, I have a hard time believing this year’s national champion won’t come from one of the four Big East teams remaining. But North Carolina is the one team I think can compete with the Big East badasses that are still standing.

And I certainly think they can, and will, beat Oklahoma.

Blake Griffin will no doubt have a great game and give his all in trying to keep Oklahoma in it, but I think North Carolina pulls away in the second half and wins this one by 10 or 11 to cover the spread and move on to Detroit.

Who do you think will win the Elite Matchup between Oklahoma and UNC?

• Oklahoma
• North Carolina

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Elite 8: Louisville-Michigan State Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Louisville-Michigan State Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Fans in Indianapolis were treated to one outstanding game yesterday and one complete massacre. The victors of those two games, Louisville and Michigan State, will take the court Sunday afternoon for the right to advance to the Final Four as the Midwest Regional Champion.

A quick look back before we look forward to the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday:

Michigan State and Kansas duked it out until the final seconds Friday night before the Spartans emerged victorious. Sherron Collins was fantastic, as expected, but Goran Suton saved one of the best games of his career for a time when Michigan State really needed it. Suton scored 20 points and grabbed 9 rebounds in a tremendously clutch performance. I was right in my prediction that Michigan State would win, but wrong that they needed Raymar Morgan to have a big game. What they needed was someone to cancel out Cole Aldrich and Suton completed the task. You knew Kalin Lucas could battle Sherron Collins to a draw, which he did, and Michigan State has more experience throughout the balance of their roster than KU. In the end, that’s why they won.

And there isn’t really much to say about Louisville’s 103-64 win over Arizona. I predicted a Louisville win and cover, but I did not expect this complete a dismantling of the Wildcats. The Cardinals owned the game from the tip and never relinquished control. Five players scored in double figures, paced by Earl Clark’s 19 points to go along with 9 rebounds. The Cardinals shot 57.6% from the field, 48.3% from downtown (14-29), and 92.9% from the line. It was an incredibly dominating performance by a team that really seems to have hit their stride over the last month or so.

So what will happen on Sunday afternoon when Louisville and Michigan State take the floor at Lucas Oil Stadium? That’s exactly what we’re here to analyze. Here are the particulars:

Louisville-Michigan State Midwest Regional Final – Elite 8 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Regional Final – Elite 8 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Sunday, March 29
• TV Time: 2:20 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Louisville -7
• Over-Under: 138

In my original 2009 bracket, I had this as the Elite 8 contest out of the Midwest Region, with Michigan State as the choice to make the Final Four. Here is what I said about the Spartans then:

Honestly, this surprised me a little bit. When I first sat down to look at the brackets, the Spartans were a team I looked at as potentially being ripe for an early upset. But looking deeper, many of their metrics, at least with respect to my personal basketball biases, make them a tournament-ready team. Add in the extra motivation of the Final Four being in Detroit, and I can see this happening.

In the two weeks that have passed since I posted my predictions, the Spartans have beaten Robert Morris, and won close, hard-fought games against USC and Kansas. Louisville, by contrast, has been much more dominating against a less impressive slate of tournament opponents, beating Morehead State, Siena, and Arizona by an average of 22 points a game.

I can see why the line on this game is Louisville -7. The Cardinals are the #1 seed, they hail from the Big East and won both the regular season and conference title, and they have rolled through their three tournament opponents (although Siena put up a bit of a second half fight). Michigan State is the #2 seed, played in a conference that I still think gets less love than it should, and have won without being dominating.

If I was setting a betting line, I would favor Louisville too. I just don’t know that I am going to pick them.

But before I get to my prediction, let’s head over to the Game Predictor to see how it sees this game, based on the same statistical categories we used for all of the Sweet 16 games:

• Offensive Efficiency: Louisville – 1.065 | Michigan State – 1.056
• Defensive Efficiency: Louisville – 0.879 | Michigan State – 0.925
• Assist/TO Ratio: Louisville – 1.281 | Michigan State – 1.171
• Free Throw %: Louisville – 0.645 | Michigan State – 0.697
• Defensive Field Goal %: Louisville – 0.394 | Michigan State – 0.415

So, Louisville wins four out of the five categories, is the higher seed, had a tougher strength of schedule (I assume, though probably not by much), and is favored. It all adds up to the Cardinals probably being an overwhelming favorite in the eyes of Game Predictor.

And that is exactly how it came out:

• Odds to Win Game: Louisville – 83.1% | Michigan State – 16.9%
• Most Likely Final Score: Louisville – 74.3 | Michigan State – 65.1
• Odds to Cover Spread (MSU +7): Louisville – 60.1% | Michigan State – 39.9%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

I have run every Sweet 16 game and every Elite 8 game but one (UNC-Oklahoma, to come later) through the Game Predictor. This is one of the most overwhelmingly lopsided predictions that has been returned.

And here is the frustrating part for me as I type this: rationally, I agree with the prediction.

Louisville’s metrics are better, they are more talented from top to bottom on their roster, they have a great coach who is certainly Tom Izzo’s peer, and they have passed the “eye test” during the tournament more impressively than Michigan State. So I completely understand why Game Predictor, and many others, think Louisville wins this game by a touchdown or more.

But I really, really, really want to disagree.

I like Tom Izzo and I’m a big fan of the Spartans’ backcourt of Kalin Lucas and Travis Walton. Plus, I am a Big Ten supporter through and through and would love to see Michigan State return some prestige to our recently struggling (but still underrated!) conference. Mix in the whole Rick Pitino-Kentucky connection, and I will without question be a huge Spartans fan on Sunday night.

However, I am trying to be as objective as possible in making these predictions. The Game Predictor has been a very powerful tool in doing so, and it is hard to ignore the overwhelming numbers above. I did go against Game Predictor during the Sweet 16, with some success (picking Villanova over Duke) and some failure (picking Syracuse over Oklahoma). I am trying to find something, anything to give me a shred of confidence to ignore game predictor here.

Louisville has only lost two games since the calendar turned to February, and has won 13 in a row. During that streak, only 4 of their games were decided by single digits. However, from February 2 through February 12, the Cardinals lost twice, at home to UConn and on the road against Notre Dame. Perhaps these two games offer a clue for what Michigan State can do to slow down this Louisville juggernaut (which I, admittedly, underestimated coming into the tournament.)

UConn dominated Louisville defensively, winning 68-51. Terrence Williams scored 26 for Louisville, but only five other players scored and the rest of the starters contributed only 10 points. Earl Clark was held to 2-16 shooting while Edgar Sosa and Jerry Smith shot a combined 2-9. As a team, the Cardinals had an Assist/TO ratio of 9/17. Amazingly, UConn went 0-8 from downtown and had a porous 12/16 Assist/TO ratio themselves. But Hasheem Thabeet grabbed 11 boards, blocked 4 shots, and scored 14 points to control the paint.

The Notre Dame-Louisville game was a complete massacre in favor of the Irish. Slumping heading into the game, Notre Dame got 10-16 shooting from downtown by Kyle McAlarney and Ryan Ayers, plus 32 points and 17 rebounds from Luke Harangody. The Irish won 90-57. Louisville shot 39% from the field for the game, and was outrebounded 46-25. It was a thoroughly dominating performance by the Irish that led Rick Pitino to say the following:

“This victory, while humiliating to us, can propel them into something good,” Pitino said. “I’m happy for them. I’m really upset at our players. The way we practiced going into this game and the way we played tonight, our five men were just totally dominated.”

Of course, from that point on, the Louisville Rickpitinowhitesuits have not lost again.

So what can Michigan State take away from these two losses as they try to prepare a blueprint for beating Louisville? First, hope that Louisville comes out completely unprepared to play, like they did against Notre Dame. Assuming that won’t happen, considering a spot in the Final Four is on the line and all, here are some keys for Michigan State:

1 — Own the glass

In these two losses by Louisville, they were outrebounded 82-55. Michigan State has always been a very good rebounding team, but this year’s squad is not one of their best teams on the glass in recent memory. Goran Suton averages 8.0 rebounds a game, with no one else grabbing more than Raymar Morgan’s 5.4. And Morgan only had 1 rebound in 13 minutes of action last night against Kansas, when the Spartans won despite being outrebounded 31-27. UConn and Notre Dame dominated on the boards and won. Michigan State cannot give the Cardinals second chances and they must get a few offensive rebounds of their own.

2 — Make 3s and guard the 3

UConn did not need threes to beat Louisville, but they have Hasheem Thabeet down low and more scoring options than the Spartans have. Plus, Louisville had an off night themselves from downtown in that game. But we know that Louisville will shoot and make their fair share of threes, as they knocked down 299 on the season, with six players making 29 or more. At a minimum, Michigan State needs to battle Louisville to close to a draw from downtown, which means that Chris Allen, Kalin Lucas, and Durrell Summers (and even Suton) need to be shooting well. Last night, Louisville made 14 3s en route to dominating Arizona. If Michigan State can’t force Louisville to be around 25-30% from long range, and make some of their own, it could be a long night.

3 — Take away Terrence Williams or Earl Clark, if not both

It is probably pie in the sky thinking that Michigan State can shut down both Terrence Williams and Earl Clark, especially considering how well both have played recently. But in Louisville’s losses, these two guys typically struggle. Williams had 9 points in a loss to UNLV and just 5 in the Notre Dame loss. Clark had 5 and 11 in the UConn and Notre Dame losses, respectively. If Michigan State can harass Williams and Clark to force them into low percentage shots, Louisville’s explosiveness will be compromised. At the very least, the Spartans need to ensure that one of these guys struggles.

4 — Get to the line and make free throws

Want to know what the “hidden” difference was in the MSU-Kansas game? The Spartans went 16-17 from the line, while Kansas went 11-13. Michigan State has a decided advantage over Louisville in free throw shooting percentage on the season, and they must exploit this. Kalin Lucas needs to get into the lane and draw fouls, and the other Spartans must be strong down low, take contact, and then make their freebies. If Michigan State can steal 5-6 points from the line against Louisville, as they did against Kansas, it will got a long way towards keeping them in the game.

Now, obviously, doing all four of these things is far easier said than done. There are plenty of solid reasons why Louisville was the #1 overall seed in the tournament, and they have proven the committee right thus far in the tournament.

Here are two advantages that I think Michigan State has going into the game:

1. They are more battle-tested in close games against good teams thus far in the tournament, having pulled out tough Ws over USC and Kansas. Louisville has not faced a team as good as either so far. (Of course, they did win the Big East tournament right before the NCAA Tournament started…)
2. The carrot at the end of the stick for Michigan State is playing in the Final Four in their own backyard. I don’t really know how much of an advantage this is, as you have to think that Louisville is just as motivated to make the Final Four regardless of where it is being played. But sometimes upsets happen because a team comes together to play for a higher purpose. Detroit is a struggling city, both in terms of economics and the performance of their sports teams, and I am sure that a Spartan trip to the Final Four at Ford Field would be exciting and uplifting for everyone. If Tom Izzo can somehow use this effectively as an extra little nugget of motivation, it could help. How much? Probably not a lot. But if this is a close game, every little advantage will be meaningful.

Michigan State was my original Final Four pick, but I have felt less and less confident in that choice each time I have seen Louisville play in the tournament. And while this is a very solid Michigan State team, I do not view these Spartans as being in the upper echelon of Tom Izzo’s teams in East Lansing. They just seem to one be one player away for being truly elite. Unfortunately, in terms of talent and expectations, that player is on their roster in Raymar Morgan, but it is hard to count on him for any type of game-to-game consistency.

Update: Just caught on SI.com that Raymar Morgan is expected to play tomorrow despite the broken nose he suffered against Kansas. According to Tom Izzo, Morgan “did not play well before the injury and was even less productive after it.”

Everything, in my mind, points to a Louisville victory on Sunday. When you stack up all of the metrics, I think it would take a flight of irrationality and wishful thinking to predict a Spartan victory. So that is why I will suggest that if you are actually thinking of placing money on this game, you should just stop reading right here.

Because I’m sticking with my pick of Michigan State.

Call it an irrational man-crush on Tom Izzo, stubborn Big Ten support, or just an unexplainable gut feeling; but I think Michigan State finds a way to get it done (and obviously covers the spread). The Spartans reaching the Final Four in their own backyard just seems like one of those NCAA Tournament stories that is too compelling not to happen; and while Louisville appears to have most of the advantages heading in, Michigan State is absolutely still good enough to win.

Call me crazy, but I think they will.

Who do you think will win the Midwest Regional Final between Louisville and Michigan State?

• Louisville
• Michigan State

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Earl Clark, Terrence Williams photo credit: Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images North America

Elite 8: Pittsburgh-Villanova Preview, Analysis, Prediction

This post will analyze the Villanova-Pittsburgh Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

As you may have noticed, I have an indefatigable excitement level about this year’s NCAA Tournament and analyzing the matchups that will ultimately get us to the Final Four in Detroit. I previewed the UConn-Missouri game earlier today, and while it is a compelling matchup, it is not the game I am looking forward to most tomorrow night.

I cannot wait to see Big East rivals Pittsburgh and Villanova go at eachother for the second time this season — this time with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

Last night, Pittsburgh and Jamie Dixon earned its first trip to the Elite 8 and finally got the “can’t get past the Sweet 16″ monkey off its back. Jay Wright has taken Villanova to two Elite 8s since 2006, but the Wildcats have not reached a Final Four since their magical upset of Georgtown in 1985.

Let’s get right into the particulars of Saturday night’s Elite 8 contest between Villanova and Pittsburgh, and then analyze and predict who will come out on top.

Pittsburgh-Villanova Elite 8 Regional Final Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: East Regional Final Elite 8 Tickets
• East Regional Breakdown
• Date: Saturday, March 28
• TV Time: 7:05 PM on CBS
• Site: TD Banknorth Garden in Boston, MA
• Announcers: Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery
• Point Spread: Pittsburgh -2
• Over-Under: 141

Let’s take a look at the Game Predictor analysis first, using the same statistical categories as have been used for each Sweet 16 and Elite 8 prediction so far. (And that, for the record, have helped me to a 4-0 record so far, knock on wood, in the Sweet 16).

• Offensive Efficiency: Pittsburgh – 1.134 | Villanova – 1.075
• Defensive Efficiency: Pittsburgh – 0.943 | Villanova – 0.931
• Assist/TO Ratio: Pittsburgh – 1.520 | Villanova – 1.131
• Free Throw %: Pittsburgh – 0.673 | Villanova – 0.748
• Defensive Field Goal %: Pittsburgh – 0.408 | Villanova – 0.401

I think it is interesting to note that while many peoples’ first impressions of Big East basketball revolve around tough, physical, defensive-minded teams, both Pittsburgh and Villanova rank much higher nationally in terms of offensive efficiency than they do for defensive efficiency. Pitt is #3 in offensive efficiency in the country, while Villanova is 29. Defensively, Pitt is #61 while Villanova is #40. While both teams are obviously very solid defensively, it would be unwise to underestimate the offensive prowess of either.

Now that we’ve looked at the stats, let’s see how Game Predictor sees the game going:

• Odds to Win Game: Pittsburgh – 58.7% | Villanova – 41.3%
• Most Likely Final Score: Pittsburgh – 73.3 | Villanova – 71.1
• Odds to Cover Spread (NOVA +2): Pittsburgh – 55.1% | Villanova – 44.9%
• Confidence Level: 2 Stars

So Pitt is the relatively strong favorite by Game Predictor, holding an advantage in all three prediction categories — although the confidence level is only two stars.

I think to properly analyze this game, we need to go a little deeper and take a look at two very important factors:

1. The first game these two teams played against eachother this year
2. The manner in which they have moved through the NCAA Tournament

Let’s look at the latter first.

Villanova has beaten a #14 seed, a #6 seed, and a #2 seed and has done it by an average margin of victory of 18.7 points. Ironically, Villanova’s margin of victory has been increasing throughout the tournament while the seeding of their opponent has been decreasing. Considering their dismantling of UCLA and Duke, two very good steams, Villanova has probably been the most dominant team in the 2009 NCAA Tournament.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has been squeaking by against lesser competition. They struggled to put away #16 seed East Tennessee State, winning by only 10. They pulled away late from #8 seed Oklahoma State to win 84-76, and then barely beat a very good Xavier team last night 60-55. Totaled, Pitt has an average margin of victory in the tournament of 7.7 points.

Now, we have heard a lot about how Pitt grinds out games and wins close. And while that is partially true, especially against good teams, it does not tell the whole picture. For the season, Pitt won by an average margin of 13.4 points. Villanova, on the other hand, won by an average margin of 10.3 points. Considering this fact, and the fact that Villanova has played a tougher tournament schedule, it is reasonable to infer than Villanova would be playing closer games in the tournament than Pitt.

Yet, Villanova has looked like a dominant team blowing out good opponents, while Pitt has looked like a very good team that just knows how to win close games. In a game as incredibly close as this one, against two teams that know eachother well, this is a big difference. Pittsburgh had the better regular season overall, but Villanova is clearly playing better basketball right now.

Before we get into the game these two played against eachother earlier this year, I want to quickly discuss free throw shooting. When I see that Villanova shoots 74.8% from the line and that Pitt shoots 67.3% from the line, a giant red flag goes up for me, especially for a game that I think will be as close as this one. One or two points may very well decide this game and Pittsburgh is the team more likely to leave those points at the free throw line.

But look at how Pitt is winning in the tournament. Against Xavier, in a very close game, Pitt shot 63.2% (12-19) from the line while Xavier shot 80% (8-10) from the line. Against Oklahoma State, another close game until the final minute, Pitt shot 65.4% from the line (17-26) while Oklahoma State was a perfect 12-12. So in both games, Pitt shot a much worse percentage, but — and it’s a big “but” — the Panthers outscored Xavier by four from the line and outscored Oklahoma State by five from the line. So while Pitt does not make as high a percentage of their free throws, they are more adept at getting chances and they play solid enough D not to give their opponent lots of chances.

And this leads us perfectly into our discussion of the first Villanova-Pittsburgh matchup from this year.

Villanova dominated Pitt 41-26 in the second half on January 28th at home in Philly, eventually winning 67-57. Guess where the game was decided?

You guessed it: at the free throw line.

Pitt shot 58.8% (10-17) while Villanova only shot 67.9%, well below their season average, but made 19-28 attempts. For a perimeter-oriented team like Villanova against a team like Pitt that has a low post presence like DeJuan Blair, these numbers are staggering. Now, I didn’t watch the game, so I have no idea if it was home cooking or if other extraneous, anomalous-type circumstances contributed to the discrepancy.

What I do know is this: if Villanova shoots 11 more free throws than Pitt on Saturday night, Villanova will win.

Here is another stat that surprised me: Villanova shot 880 free throws this season, paced by guard Scottie Reyndols’ 195. Pittsburgh only shot 684 free throws, paced by DeJuan Blair’s 156. These numbers are proof positive that it is not always low post dominance that leads to free throws. Having guards who can attack the basket, like Villanova has in Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, can actually be a much more effective way of taking control of games from the free throw line.

Another important stat from the first meeting between these two teams was the Assist/TO ratio of Levance Fields. For the season, Fields had a ratio of 3.7:1, which is absolutely magnificent. Against Villanova, Fields had 4 assists and 3 turnovers. Contrast that with what Fields has done in Pitt’s two close tournament wins so far: 9 assists, 2 turnovers against Oklahoma State; and 6 assists, 3 turnovers against Xavier. That is a ratio 3:1 over the two games.

However, here are some more ominous stats for Pitt: Duke’s Assist/TO ratio against Villanova was 7:11; UCLA’s was 14:20.

One of Pitt’s great strengths this year, led by Fields, was their 1.5:1 Assist/TO ratio. The Panthers need to protect the ball and be efficient on offense against a Villanova team that has its defense clicking on all cylinders right now.

Okay, so I have painted a pretty bleak picture for Pitt so far. Then why am I torn over who to pick?

For one, Pittsburgh is better at getting easy, high percentage shots in its offense. Look at the field goal percentages on the year: 45.6% for Villanova, 47.9% for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is also a better rebounding team, grabbing an average of 2.8 more rebounds per game than Villanova. And Villanova is not as solid as Pitt at taking care of the ball, registering an Assist/TO ratio as a team of only 1.1:1. Pitt went 30-4, was a #1 seed, and had a better overall body of work than Villanova this season for a reason. These are just a few of the reasons.

But at the end of the day, what happened in November, December, January, and February means very little right now. It’s March, and in games between two teams who know eachother well, and where the margin of difference is very small, the hotter team is often the one that comes out on top.

As discussed above, Pittsburgh has played close games in the tournament and has won by getting to the line more than its opponents. In Villanova, Pitt finds a foe that got to the line almost 200 more times than the Panthers did this season. Add the fact that Villanova makes a higher percentage of its shots, and this is an advantage to Villanova.

In addition, to summarize from above, Pitt’s success has been predicated on taking care of the ball and getting high percentage shots. Villanova has held two good teams, Duke and UCLA, to a 21:31 Assist/TO ratio and a combined field goal percentage of 33.6%. I expect Pitt to perform better than Duke and UCLA did in these two areas, but I’m not sure they can reach their season norms of 1.5:1 and 47.9%. To beat a team as hot and as confident as Villanova is right now, I think Pitt need’s to at least get to close to their season averages in these two areas.

In the end, I think it all adds up to a Villanova victory. I originally picked Pitt in my bracket, but upon deeper analysis I think this matchup favors the Wildcats. Considering the manner of their victory over Pitt earlier this year, and the manner in which the two teams have won in the tournament, I just do not see Villanova allowing Pittsburgh to win playing the style the Panthers have been playing. I would not be shocked if Pittsburgh wins, and I would not put ever put a dime on a game like this between two conference foes because too many variables could tip the scales one direction or the other in a single 40-minute game.

But my recommendation would be to definitely take Villanova with the points, because I think Villanova wins straight up.

But not before Nova and Pitt treat us to a terrific 40 minutes of hard-fought, well-played, entertaining basketball.

Who do you think will win the Pittsburgh-Villanova rematch in the East Regional Final Saturday night?

• Villanova
• Pittsburgh

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Reggie Redding/DeJuan Blair photo credit: AP Photo/Michael Perez

Elite 8: UConn-Missouri Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the UConn-Missouri Elite 8 game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

One of these two teams I expected to get this far. The other one not so much. One of these teams was my championship pick on my original bracket. The other team I had getting bounced in round two.

So you would think that this would be an easy prediction right?

Wrong.

The horse I decided to ride all the way through the brackets to the championship was UConn. I didn’t necessarily “decide” on them, per se, as much as I was led to picking them because of the bracket picking system I devised. Still, I wasn’t too upset or surprised. UConn is a very good team that is extremely strong at point guard and center. The loss of Jerome Dyson certainly hurt, but this appeared like a team with enough juice to go all the way.

And I still think they can. But I’m a little worried.

All of the hubbub over the investigation into potential recruiting violations has to be a distraction. It obviously did not affect them too much against Purdue, but it might start to as the story gains steam. Maybe it won’t affect the team as much as it will Jim Calhoun, but I think UConn needs their fiery coach at his best to navigate through the defensive scheme and intensity of Missouri.

Which brings me to the real reason I’m worried: Missouri is a damn good team. I underestimated them in the Big 12 Tournament. I underestimated them in the NCAA Tournament, and now here they are, ready to play for a shot at the first Final Four in school history.

Let’s outline the particulars of the game and then we’ll jump right into a prediction.

UConn-Missouri Elite 8 Regional Final Preview

• StubHub: West Region Elite 8 Regional Final Tickets
• West Regional Breakdown
• Date: Saturday, March 28
• TV Time: 4:40 PM on CBS
• Site: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ
• Announcers: Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas
• Point Spread: UConn -5 (according to ESPN Game Predictor)
• Over-Under: 150 1/2

Before I offer my own first impressions and prediction for this game, let’s see how Game Predictor views the action, based on the same five statistical categories we used to analyze the Sweet 16 games.

• Offensive Efficiency: UConn – 1.098 | Missouri – 1.100
• Defensive Efficiency: UConn – 0.888 | Missouri – 0.918
• Assist/TO Ratio: UConn – 1.284 | Missouri – 1.538
• Free Throw %: UConn – 0.674 | Missouri – 0.668
• Defensive Field Goal %: UConn – 0.374 | Missouri – 0.418

Other than the significant advantage for UConn in terms of defensive field goal percentage, these two teams are very evenly matched across these five categories. My anticipation is that UConn will be a slight favorite by Game Predictor based on the SOS and higher seed (and I base this on the results of the Sweet 16 predictions). Let’s see:

• Odds to Win Game: UConn – 59.4% | Missouri – 40.6%
• Most Likely Final Score: UConn – 70.8 | Missouri – 68.2
• Odds to Cover Spread (MIZZOU +5): UConn – 45.9% | Missouri – 54.1%
• Confidence Level: 2 Stars

So a relatively solid vote of confidence for UConn, at least for an Elite 8 game where each team should be pretty evenly matched. Here the issues though:

1. UConn was not as good after the Dyson injury as they were before. However, the stats used in my original bracket analysis and this Game Predictor analysis take into account their performance with a healthy Dyson in the lineup.
2. Game Predictor obviously cannot factor in the swirling controversy about the recruiting violations. I don’t know to what extent this will affect UConn — no one does — but let’s put it this way: I don’t see it as a positive in any way.

Still, I can’t abandon the Huskies. Not yet anyway.

I really like this Missouri team. They obviously play a very frenetic style of defense and an up-tempo style, yet they have an impeccable Assist/TO ratio. Additionally, they have scoring balance on offense. All five starters scored in double figures against Memphis with JT Tiller leading the way with 23. Plus, the duo of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons is outstanding. They had a combined 32 points and 18 rebounds against a Memphis team with a strong presence inside. This bodes well for their ability to compete against the inside presence of Hasheem Thabeet.

But, I am not going to get carried away yet and jump two-feet first onto the Missouri bandwagon. Yes, they had an impressive win over Marquette; but it was against a Marquette team playing with a hobbled Dominic James. And after jumping out to a big lead they had to hang on late. Their win over Memphis was obviously impressive as well; but I have not been a believer in Memphis all year so I am not ready to anoint them West Region champs simply because of that victory. And just like in the Marquette game, Missouri displayed an inability to shut the door by letting Memphis back into the game late — though they never relinquished the lead.

The fact of the matter is that a week ago, I would not have thought twice about who to pick in this game. After how well Missouri has played over the last three weeks, they have given me plenty of reasons to pause long and hard and consider their chances.

At the end of the day though, I am a sucker for experienced backcourts and teams that can control the paint defensive. UConn is led by a player I love, senior AJ Price, and his senior backcourt teammate Craig Austrie. And, of course, they have Hasheem Thabeet down low who has proven all year, and did again last night against Purdue, that if he stays out of foul trouble he is an absolute beast and gives UConn a huge advantage against every team in American that does not have a 7′3 center with great defensive timing — which is pretty much every team in America.

This is a fascinating game between two outstanding teams with plenty of compelling storylines to go around. In the end, this game will come down to what most UConn games come down to: can Hasheem Thabeet stay on the floor and can UConn get enough scoring from their backcourt. UConn beat Purdue because Thabeet played 36 minutes, grabbed 15 rebounds, scored 15 points, and controlled the paint with 4 blocks. UConn also got 32 points from Price and Austrie on 9-21 shooting, plus 11 assists against only 4 turnovers from the duo. If these three guys produce like that against Missouri, UConn will win.

But if Thabeet gets in foul trouble, or Price and Austrie get out of their comfort zone against the Tigers’ D, Missouri has a great chance to win. Mix in the prospect of the Huskies being distracted as a result of the recruiting violation story, and the game gets ever so close to being a complete toss-up in my mind — and I start to think that Missouri may even be the “safer” pick.

There are lots of variables on the UConn side, but they are also the better team when they are at their best. I’m not ready to say that I am still 100% committed to them as the eventual national champions, but I am willing to say that they’ll at least reach the Final Four. Missouri will put up a great fight, and UConn better be ready. I think they will be. I like Missouri with the points (assuming the spread stays at 5, and I’ve only seen it listed on ESPN), but UConn to win straight up. And I can’t wait to see how this one actually unfolds once the ball is tipped.

Who do you think will win the Elite 8 matchup between UConn and Missouri

• UConn
• Missouri

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Demarre Carroll photo credit: Jon Goering/KANSAN

Sweet 16: North Carolina-Gonzaga Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the North Carolina-Gonzaga game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

There were plenty of questions surrounding North Carolina coming into the 2009 NCAA Tournament and almost every single one of them revolved around one player: Ty Lawson. The ankle injury suffered by Lawson towards the end of the season left many people wondering just how effective he would be come tournament time and whether or not North Carolina could reach the Final Four without their floor general at full strength.

I think Lawson has proven that he’s just fine with his stellar performance against LSU.

After halftime, Ty Lawson scored 21 of his 23 points and led North Carolina to an 84-70 victory. The Tar Heels pulled away late against and LSU team that came ready to play, but just did not have the talent to match up with the mighty Tar Heels.

The question for Gonzaga heading into Friday night’s game is whether or not they have the talent to match up, especially against a North Carolina team that will now have an even healthier Lawson leading from the point.

Let’s look at the particulars as you prepare for a night of March Madness viewing on Friday, and then we’ll jump into the prediction.

North Carolina v Gonzaga Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: South Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• South Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 9:57 PM on CBS
• Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: North Carolina -8 1/2
• Over-Under: 162 1/2
• My prediction: North Carolina

Here is how UNC and Gonzaga stack up based on the same statistical categories we’ve used for each of the seven other Sweet 16 posts published this week:

• Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 1.154 | Gonzaga – 1.125
• Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina – 0.931 | Gonzaga – 0.888
• Assist/TO Ratio: North Carolina – 1.401 | Gonzaga – 1.368
• Free Throw %: North Carolina – 0.768 | Gonzaga – 0.715
• Defensive Field Goal %: North Carolina – 0.411 | Gonzaga – 0.374

Considering the seed differential and UNC’s strength of schedule advantage, it is no surprise that they are the heavy favorites as far as Game Predictor is concerned. Here is how the Game Predictor prediction stacked up:

• Odds to Win Game: North Carolina – 77.4% | Gonzaga – 22.6%
• Most Likely Final Score: North Carolina – 73.0 | Gonzaga – 65.9
• Odds to Cover Spread (Gonzaga +8.5): North Carolina – 52.8% | Gonzaga – 47.2%
• Confidence Level: 4 Stars

So Game Predictor is not quite as confident in North Carolina as it is in Louisville to beat Arizona, but still a pretty resounding vote of confidence for the Tar Heels. I agree, and would take UNC with the points in this one. This Tar Heels team is extremely talented, and while Gonzaga is a very good team, they are not a great team. I think with Lawson healthy, and the superb cast of players like Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington around him, this Carolina team is going to be very tough out for anyone, let along the Zags.

What I do like about Gonzaga is that they have great scoring balance. No player on their team averages more than Josh Heytvelt’s 14.9 points per game, but Matt Bouldin, Austin Daye, Jeremy Pargo, Micah Downs, and Steven Gray all average at least 9.2 And I am a big fan of Mark Few. No, he is clearly not on the level of Roy Williams, but he is a coach with plenty of experience getting an underdog hyped up and ready to play against a big favorite. Gonzaga has been in a unique position this season and over the past few years, no longer being the underdog just looking to pull an upset or two. Tournament success is now expected of them. I think Gonzaga will embrace the underdog role they are in Friday night and bring everything they’ve got.

But if both of these teams bring everything they’ve got, North Carolina is still ten points better, and I think that’s what we’ll see. Ty Lawson, as he proved against LSU, is a tremendous difference maker. As long as UNC does not fall into one of their games where they just refuse to play defense and get stops, they can put Gonzaga away in the second half. I actually think this game will look a lot like the LSU win.

A great season for Gonzaga falls short of the Elite 8, and the Tar Heels roll on, one step away from where everyone thought they’d be when the season started: the Final Four.

Sweet 16: Syracuse-Oklahoma Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Oklahoma-Syracuse game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

I know I’ve been saying for this most of these Sweet 16 previews, but this is going to be a really good game. I guess when you’re broken an entire season down to a 16-game tournament, you expect the majority of the games to be between high profile, very good teams.

Oklahoma was thought by many to be a #1 seed for most of the season. Then Blake Griffin got hurt, the Sooners lost a few games, and never really got their swagger back during the regular season or Big 12 Tournament. They have rebounded for two victories in rounds one and two, but something about this team still just feels a bit off from where they were before the Griffin injury.

Syracuse is still be riding a wave of momentum from their thrilling 6-OT victory over UConn in the Big East tournament. The ‘Cuse fell short against Louisville in the Big East Championship game, but won both of their first tournament games by double digits. And with a point guard like Jonny Flynn, shooters like Devendorf and Rautins, and a tough interior player like Paul Harris, you have to think Syracuse has a chance to beatany team still standing.

What’s in store tomorrow night? Here are the particulars:

Oklahoma v Syracuse Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: South Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• South Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 7:27 PM on CBS
• Site: FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN
• Announcers: Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg
• Point Spread: Oklahoma -1
• Over-Under: 153 1/2
• My prediction: originally it was Oklahoma…now I’m not so sure. Read on.

Let’s jump right into the Game Predictor analysis, using the same statistical categories we’ve used for all of the other Sweet 16 previews.

• Offensive Efficiency: Syracuse – 1.077 | Oklahoma – 1.123
• Defensive Efficiency: Syracuse – 0.965 | Oklahoma – 0.955
• Assist/TO Ratio: Syracuse – 1.243 | Oklahoma – 1.120
• Free Throw %: Syracuse – 0.645 | Oklahoma – 0.676
• Defensive Field Goal %: Syracuse – 0.408 | Oklahoma – 0.394

And now the prediction. It is definitely the closest one I have seen so far, which makes perfect sense to me. Similar seeds, probably very similar strength of schedules, with Oklahoma being slightly better overall with respect to the stats analyzed above.

• Odds to Win Game: Syracuse – 48.8% | Oklahoma – 51.2%
• Most Likely Final Score: Syracuse – 66.7 | Oklahoma – 67.7
• Odds to Cover Spread (Syracuse +1): Syracuse – 51.5% | Oklahoma – 48.5%
• Confidence Level: 1 Star

Man, this is a though one. Even the Game Predictor has a confidence level of only one star, making this basically a pick ‘em game.

I like the way that Syracuse is playing right now and I definitely like the experience and proven clutch ability of their backcourt. But Oklahoma obviously has the best player on the court in Blake Griffin. And as we know, more often than not in basketball, the team with the best player wins. I’m not saying all the time, or even more than 55-45, but if you put your money on the team with the best player I think you would win more than you lose.

But I’m going against that here, and I’m going against Game Predictor.

Perhaps I am still thinking too much about the 6-OT game, but there is just something I like about this Syracuse team. This is not a team that will dominate you inside, and they will have their hands full with Blake Griffin, but Syracuse is tough mentally and physically and has a floor general in Jonny Flynn who has a motor that never stops.

Plus, the old cliche is that tournaments are won by the team that gets hot at the right time.

Syracuse won their last four regular season games, made it to the Big East championship, and won by double figures in their first two tourney games. Oklahoma lost three out of their last five regular season games, choked in the Big 12 tournament, and struggled with Michigan before putting them away late. In a game this close, with such a razor thin margin of difference, I think Syracuse’s roll supersedes Blake Griffin’s greatness.

I’m going with Syracuse, straight up. And hoping for overtime.

Sweet 16: Louisville-Arizona Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

This post will analyze the Louisville-Arizona game using a statistical analysis provided by the Game Predictor at ESPN.com, which is powered by TeamRankings.com. For an analysis of how this program works, hop over to the first individual game Sweet 16 preview I put out for UConn-Purdue. The methodology is all explained there.

Two coaching titans will take to the floor Friday night when the Louisville Cardinals meet up with the Arizona Wildcats.

The Louisville Cardinals are led by Mr. White Suit himself Rick Pitino, a man who was born to be a college basketball coach and who has been successful at every stop along his college basketball path (and we’ll just forget about the whole Celtics thing…).

Pitino went to the Final Four with Providence, led by Billy Donovan and his short shorts. After leaving Providence, Pitino built upon the storied tradition in Lexington by going 219-50 at Kentucky and winning one National Championship, reaching two other Final Fours, two other Elite 8’s, and never losing in the first round of the tournament. And now at Louisville, Pitino is at it again, with a 199-87 record, already one Final Four appearance, and a championship this season in the conference that many have said is the best ever.

The Arizona Wildcats are led by Lute Olson, who has ammassed 781 wins during his storied career, with stops at Long Beach State, Iowa, and Arizona. His Wildcats made the NCAA Tournament every year between 1985 and 2007, winning the National Championship in 1997. And now, Olson has his troops on the precipice of another Elite Ei–

Wait — what? I’m an idiot Midwesterner you say…and Lute Olson isn’t coaching Arizona? And they’re playing in the Sweet 16?! Okay…but who the hell is Russ Pennell?

Well, in the irony of all ironies, here is the first hit for a google search on Russ Pennell’s name: his bio at the Arizona…State website. And here is the Russ Pennell basketball bio, as described by Pat Forde of ESPN:

Until May 2008, he had been out of coaching for four years — working as a radio analyst and directing a basketball academy in Phoenix. Prior to that, he had worked under Rob Evans until he was fired at Arizona State and previously at Mississippi. And there was a two-year stint at Oklahoma State under Eddie Sutton.

Yet here he is in the Sweet 16, a man whose de facto job title is Coach Until He Loses. Now the trick is to beat a couple of coaching legends and remain employed as long as he can.

No matter what, that tenure doesn’t figure to last past April 6. This isn’t a Steve Fisher story, or a Steve Lavin story, or a Mike Davis story. No matter how well he has done in a difficult spot, the interim guy won’t be rewarded with the full-time job.

So, we have a guy who is 8-0 in Sweet 16 games, has 521 victories, and wears badass pimp suits (Pitino), going up against a guy who has 21 career victories, was a radio analyst at this time last year, and who has ostensibly no shot at getting the full-time gig after this season (Pennell).

Oh yeah, this is fair.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go try and shake the words “a Mike Davis story” out of my head, otherwise I’ll have nightmares tonight.

Louisville v Arizona Sweet 16 Preview and Prediction

• StubHub: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Tickets
• Midwest Regional Breakdown
• Date: Friday, March 27
• TV Time: 7:07 PM on CBS
• Site: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Len Elmore
• Point Spread: Louisville -9 1/2
• Over-Under: 139
• My prediction: Louisville

Okay, time now to hop on over to the Game Predictor and see what it says about this game. I have a very strong feeling that this will be the most lopsided of the projections, especially considering the seed differential and strength of schedule differential between these two teams.

Here is the breakdown of the five statistical categories we have been analyzing for each game:

• Offensive Efficiency: Louisville – 1.054 | Arizona – 1.095
• Defensive Efficiency: Louisville – 0.878 | Arizona – 1.030
• Assist/TO Ratio: Louisville – 1.244 | Arizona – 1.141
• Free Throw %: Louisville – 0.639 | Arizona – 0.739
• Defensive Field Goal %: Louisville – 0.396 | Arizona – 0.433

Wow…the differential between the two teams in defensive efficiency rating is staggering. Considering Louisville is from the Big East and Arizona is from the Pac-10, it is not all that surprising though. And yes, I am stereotyping and saying that teams eest of the Mississippi tend to play better defense than teams west of it. But that’s an analysis for another day.

Here is the Game Predictor projection for the Louisville-Arizona game:

• Odds to Win Game: Louisville – 86.3% | Arizona – 13.7%
• Most Likely Final Score: Louisville – 75.7 | Arizona – 65.7
• Odds to Cover Spread (Arizona +9.5): Louisville – 51.9% | Arizona – 48.1%
• Confidence Level: 5 Stars

Damn. Looks like Louisville is the favorite huh? Well, like I said, these results are not all that unexpected. And the Game Predictor is obviously quite confident about it, as their confidence level is at 5 stars.

Obviously, I think Louisville will win this game. More importantly, I think they will cover the spread as well.

Arizona is a nice team with a core of talented players, but Louisville is a great team with a great coach. Now, I think Louisville will lose to whoever wins the Michigan State-Kansas game, but I do not think they will have a problem disposing of Arizona. The Wildcats simply do not play the kind of defense that can slow down Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, and the rest of the Cardinal attack. Arizona might be able to keep it close early, but I think this game turns into a 20-25 point blowout in the second half.

It’s been a nice run for Russ Pennell, and the Wildcats have provided a little drama by being the only double-digit seed in the tournament, but let’s not get carried away here. They had a nice victory over #5 seed Utah and then beat a #13 seed (albeit a good and talented one in Cleveland State) in round two. Playing Louisville is a couple notches up the rung and while the Wildcats have the talent to play with Louisville for 40 minutes on a given night, I do not think they have the defensive consistency nor the sideline leadership to warrant the forecast of a close one Friday night.

Friday night, Rick Pitino will move to 9-0 in the Sweet 16 and get one step closer to a Final Four. Russ Pennell will most likely begin his search for another job. But hey — making it to the Sweet 16 as an unlikely head coach for Arizona is a great story for Russ Pennell. Arizona may be able to take his job, but they’ll never be able to take the pleasant memory of this season away.

Who do you think will win the Arizona-Louisville game on Friday night?

• Louisville
• Arizona

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