Last football season, I, along with our senior fantasy football writer Kurt Fraschetti, enjoyed writing weekly fantasy football advice columns as well as doing periodic Sunday morning start ‘em-sit ‘em live chats. For the upcoming season and beyond, we’ve decided to step up our fantasy sports coverage to another level.

Hence, the MSF Fantasy Sports Discussion Forum.

Now, it is set up a little differently than your typical forum and is actually more of a hybrid forum/live chat. We used one of the WordPress’ newest themes (created by the WP developers themselves) called P2.

What this theme allows you to do is create a discussion thread using a simple Twitter-like box on the homepage. If you click over to the discussion forum right now, you won’t see this box. You’ll just the not-yet-populated tag cloud and a sample discussion thread. All you have to do to post a question and start a discussion is register for a username. And yes, since it’s a different copy of WordPress, you still need to register there if you already have a username here at MSF.

You can then receive real-time feedback on your question from the MSF fantasy guys (me, Kurt, and perhaps a few others who have demonstrated their fantasy aptitude) and other people who join the community and want to chime in with a reply. It will obviously be up to you to digest the feedback and decide whether or not to incorporate it. The cool part about the theme is that if someone responds to your question, the page will update right in front of you; no refreshing necessary. 

Our goal is to respond to everyone’s question as soon as possible.  All of the admins will get email alerts every time a new discussion is started.  Plus, the sidebar will display who is online at any given moment, so you can see if one of the admins or any other users are there to provide feedback.  Unless we are tied up with something, we’ll bop on over ASAP to respond, hopefully while you are still on the site.  And on Sunday mornings, we’ll keep doing the live chats that we started last season, but don’t have to use a third-party program or set something up separately.  Everything will just be there right on the page.

Additionally, every discussion will be appropriately tagged so that if you are looking for specific information, you can sort the discussions by player name, position, or sport. There is a also a handy-dandy Lijit search widget for you to use as well to find exactly the information you are looking for.

So, head on over to the MSF Fantasy Sports Discussion Forum and take a look. Sign up for a username, post a question, and let’s get some discussions going.  

Also, please reply in the comments below or by email and let me know what you think of the forum. Like the setup? Hate it? Have any suggestions for ways we can make it better? Our goal was to create the most user-friendly and simple resource to get your specific fantasy sports questions answered quickly; hopefully we achieved that goal to some degree.

Now, to show you my appreciate for reading all of this mumbo-jumbo, some of the best links from around the sports blogosphere and elsewhere today:

Sports:

• Top Ten Best Real Men of Genius Commercials — (Dallas Sports Fans)
• Non-BCS programs need to stop whining — (MoonDog)
• An open letter to Joba — (It’s About the Money, Stupid)
• College Football Ultimate 11: Offense | Defense — (Sparty & Friends)
• Betting odds for 1st Twitter-related NFL suspension — (Black Sports Online)
• The Detroit Tigers: Winning the Stupid Way — (The Sports Bank)
• Impact freshman for the Tennessee Volunteers — (SEC Rivals)
• Indiana football lays out the welcome mat for opposing fans — (Rumors & Rants)
• 2010 recruiting moving along; what will UK’s haul look like? — (Straight Pinkie)
• Prince Fielder will break down that door, kill Guillermo Mota, eat his children — (Busted Coverage)
• Is Eli Manning worth $97 million? — (The Big Lead)
• Diva Crabtree may re-enter 2010 draft — (PFT)
• Real tales of Mike Lupica — (Deadspin)
• Blackhawks and video game legend Jeremy Roenik calls it quits — (Tremendous Upside Potential)
• Maria Sharapova lost…but at least she was the best-looking one there — (Sharapova’s Thigh)
• Save @HHReynolds! — (Hugging Harold Reynolds)
• Lou Holtz might actually run for Congress — (Awful Announcing)
• Mets Trap (hilarious!) — Global Sports Fraternity
• White Sox secret weapon Herm Schneider will get Peavy ready early – (Chip Shots)
• Lance Armstrong  = giant douche? — (Gunaxin)

Non-Sports:

• 7 Bizarre items that were lodged in assholes — (Regretful Morning)
• The bizarre world of American grocery bagging — (Drew Magery at Deadspin)

That was pretty much the only word going through my head while watching highlights last night of Neftali Feliz’s MLB debut for the Texas Rangers.

Having lived in Dallas for a little over a year now, I have grown quite knowledgable about Neftali Feliz because the sports talk radio guys down here talk about him quite often. If you are an astute baseball observer, you have probably heard of him too. Feliz turned heads with an impressive performance at the Future’s Game during All Star weekend, and he was one of the players that Toronto reportedly wanted in any deal for Roy Halladay…but a player the Rangers understandably would not part with.

As if we needed it, last night gave us another glimpse into the reasons why Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels did not trade Feliz.

Acquired in the Mark Teixeira trade a few years back, Feliz has steadily worked his way through the Rangers’ minor league system and up the charts of top prospects. In fact, according to the most recent release by MLB.com, Neftali Feliz is the 6th best prospect in the game. He has an electric fastball that Harold Reynolds aptly described on the MLB Network last night as “exploding” out of his hand. It looked to me like it was a pretty straight fastball without a lot of movement, but when you can touch triple digits on the radar gun you don’t need a whole lot of movement. According to the MLB.com scouting profile on Neftali Feliz, he is consistently between 94-99 with his fastball, with his secondary pitches (curve, change) “showing flashes of being at least Major League-average pitches.”

But again, let me just reiterate the most important conclusion you can take away from Feliz’s two inning debut last night against Oakland: WOW.

And this brings me to the point of today’s article. Many of you probably do not care that the Texas Rangers have yet another phenom in the Majors (joining Elvis Andrus and Derek Holland, with Justin Smoak on the way), but many of you probably are looking for someone to provide a late season boost for your fantasy teams. Even though Feliz was transitioned from a starter to a reliever this year (and perhaps only for this year), and even though he is not currently closing, I offer you this piece of what I hope proves to be sage advice: run, don’t walk, to the waiver wire and snatch this guy up before the other managers in your league wise up to the fact that a kid with a “once in a generation-type arm” (according to H.R.) is now firing fastballs in the Majors that can provide a great supplement for your pitching stats.

For his debut performance last night, Feliz authored two perfect innings in which he blew away four Oakland hitters for strikeouts. As noted by Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports, the competition was not exactly the greatest measuring stick for Feliz. Oakland has a porous offense and Jack Cust, one of Feliz’s victims, strikes out more than Screech Powers did with Lisa Turtle on Saved By The Bell. But take a look at Neftali Feliz’s minor league numbers for a sense of what you can expect:

• 2009 (AAA): 77.1 innings, 25 G (13 S), 3.49 ERA, 1,28 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 2 HR
• 2008 (A, AA): 127.1 innings 27 G (27 S), 2.69 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 3.00 K/BB, 3 HR

Those are pretty good numbers, especially the K rate and his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Like most young pitchers with extremely strong arms, Feliz walks a few too many batters at this stage in his career (i.e. David Price), but his ability to retire batters via strikeout helps to mitigate any potential damage.

In fact, Price is probably a good comparison for Feliz. Here are Price’s minor league numbers from last year and then what he did upon being called up for the Rays’ stretch run into the playoffs:

• 2008 (A, AA, AAA): 109.2 innings, 19 G (19 S), 2.30 ERA, 1.131 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.41 K/BB, 7 HR
• 2008 (MLB): 14 innings, 5 G (1 S), 1.93 ERA, 0.929 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 1 HR
• 2008 (Playoffs): 5.2 innings, 5 G, 1.59 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, 2.00 K/BB, 0 HR

Like Feliz, Price is a starter that the Rays brought up to bolster their bullpen. Their minor league numbers are very comparable, and Feliz has Price-like talent that could very well lead him to similarly dominant numbers out of the pen for the Rangers over the final two months of the season.

There is one key difference though: when Price reached the bigs, the Rays already had Troy Percival entrenched as the closer. The Rangers have used Frank Francisco as their closer this year, with CJ Wilson filling in while Francisco has been dealing with injuries and illness. The Rangers did recently activate Francisco from the DL, but manager Ron Washington said that Francisco will not be immediately placed into the closer’s role as they will work him back slowly.  And while CJ Wilson has been much better this season (13 saves, 3 blown saves) in the closer’s role, he is also prone to inconsistency. For example, Wilson blew the save last night against Oakland.

With the Rangers having a razor-thin margin for error in their quest over the next two months for a playoff spot, I have to think that Feliz will get some opportunities to close. Considering the fact that he has the arm strength to go multiple innings, as he showed last night, Feliz could very well pick up a few two-inning saves over the balance of the season, perhaps on nights when the Rangers need to rest Francisco and/or Wilson and especially when playing division opponents who are more likely to familiar with those two pitchers. The unfamiliar heat of Feliz could be a valuable 9th inning option when, for instance, the Rangers go up against the Angels again.

The Rangers would not have brought Feliz up if they did not intend to use him regularly. And while guys slated for middle relief don’t fit into nice, neat fantasy classifications like starter or closer, they can provide solid fantasy value if used properly. 

Currently, Feliz is available in 99.5% of ESPN fantasy leagues and in 86% of Yahoo! fantasy leagues. Additionally, he has SP eligibility in both formats despite the fact that he will most likely pitch out of the bullpen for the remainder of this season. What this means is that you do not have to replace a closer to use him. And considering the fact that on most days you will not be filling all of your SP slots, Feliz can be deftly slotted in one of those slots for most days so you can grab his Ks, plus any Wins or Saves, whenever he pitches.

It is important when grabbing a middle reliever that you can have them in your lineup every day. Predicting when they will pitch is obviously difficult, as with a closer, so you want them in the lineup on a consistent basis.

And think about it: if Feliz gets 2-3 appearances per week, he most likely will give you a minimum of 4-5 innings. In those innings, he will probably generate 5-6 Ks while either providing a slight boost to your ERA and WHIP, or at least not harming it if he pitches close to his professional averages. And vulturing Wins and Saves from a non-starter/non-closer is always valuable. I think it is quite likely that Feliz can grab 2-3 wins and 4-5 saves over the balance of the season. He also could end up sliding into the permanent closer’s role, in which case his value obviously skyrockets.

At this point in the season, most valuable established players are most likely already unavailable. Your waiver wire choices are probably between a bunch of guys who look a lot like. Neftali Feliz provides an opportunity for you to grab a prodigious talent who will be employed by his team in a way that maximizes his current ability.

We’ve seen David Price struggle this year as a starter, but guys with such electric arms can usually perform well out of the bullpen early in their careers (i.e. Joba Chamberlain) even if they rely heavily on one pitch. The change of pace from the previous pitcher, combined with the lack familiarity of hitters, plus the ability over short outings to hide subpar secondary pitches, makes fireballing phenoms like Neftali Feliz excellent late season options.

We have seen guys like Feliz, who is apparently called Mr. Happy by his Rangers teammates (according to 1310 The Ticket in Dallas this morning), provide significant value time and again in past fantasy seasons. You will only have a few days to pluck him off the waiver wire before another manager wises up, so let Neftali Feliz make you Mr. Happy and go grab him right now if you can.

Just as he may prove to be with the Rangers, Neftali Feliz could end up being the missing piece that vaults you into the playoffs.

**********

* – Neftali Feliz pink backpack photo credit: AP via Big League Stew

* – Neftali Feliz holding ball photo credit: Harry How/Getty Images via Bleacher Report

* – Neftali Feliz minor league photo credit: MarkHancock.Blogspot.com

A couple of weeks ago, my fantasy baseball team (Hitting Crean-Up) was flying high. I was in first place, my team was in good health, and all of the my sleeper picks had been playing tremendously well (i.e. Raul Ibanez, Mike Lowell, Jason Bay, etc.)

Then I speculated about many possible explanations for Raul Ibanez’s 2009 stats and everything — from a fantasy perspective at least — went downhill. I’m still sitting in second place, but take a look at the injuries that have occurred over the past 10 days:

• Denard Span started getting dizzy, missed some time, and hit the DL.
• Roy Halladay pulled his ground and went on the DL.
• Scott Down sprained his freaking big toe and hit the DL.
• Derek Jeter was hobbled and had to a miss game and is day-to-day (and hopefully will not hit the DL!)

And then today, the Philadelphia Phillies announced that my current team MVP, Raul Ibanez, had been placed on the DL with a strained left groin. And all of these injuries happened in the last 10 days!

This is still a developing story so I’m not sure how long Ibanez will be out, but I sure hope it’s not long. He has been an absolute revelation and has gone from a guy I was hoping could produce like a #2 OF to being a guy I’m counting on to produce like a #1.

Looks like Scotty Pods will be getting the nod for me today. I was thinking about starting him anyway (though for Lowell at UTIL, not for Ibanez) to hopefully pick up some steals, but certainly this is not a solution I want to employ long-term.

Get well and come back soon Raul. Your fantasy owners miss you already.

If I didn’t know any better, I’d think Bud Selig and the MLB gods had placed a curse on my team. But then again, that would be the thinking of a Cubs fan. These are the stretches during baseball’s dog days of summer that separate winners and losers. Time to suck it up, strap it down, and hit the waiver wire. And then hope that Raul and the rest of my walking wounded make it back healthy soon.

* – Raul Ibanez photo found at The Bleacher Report, photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Update: On Wednesday morning, Raul Ibanez responded harshly to the post below in the Philadelphia Inquirer. Follow the link to read a detailed description of Ibanez’s response and our response to Raul Ibanez and the general debate about steroid speculation in baseball.

Heading into this year’s fantasy baseball drafts, there was one name I was targeting more than any other as a mid-round steal: Raul Ibanez. I was not alone in this assessment either. Ibanez had been flying totally under the radar in Seattle, where he had quietly become one of the most consistent #2/#3 fantasy OFs in baseball. Look at his numbers from the last three years he was in the Great Northwest playing in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field:

• 2006: 33 HR, 123 RBI, 103 R, .289 BA, .869 OPS
• 2007: 21 HR, 105 RBI, 80 R, .291 BA, .831 OPS
• 2008: 23 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R, .293 BA, .837 OPS

That is just solid and consistent production all the way around.

With Ibanez moving to the much more hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park by way of his signing with the Philadelphia Phillies in the offseason, most fantasy prognosticators had Ibanez penciled in as the type of grizzled veteran who could see a slight bump in his already good numbers by playing half of his games in a ballpark more conducive to offensive production and all of his games in a better lineup.

I knew heading into my draft that if I came out of it with Ibanez as my 3rd OF, drafted somewhere in rounds 8-10, that I would be feeling pretty good about my team.

In the league I pay the most attention to, my first five picks were OF Carlos Beltran, 3B Evan Longoria, SP Roy Halladay, OF Jason Bay, and 1B Adrian Gonzlez. Obviously each of those guys has had a great start to the season and are primary reasons why my team has been in first place all year…until I got waxed this week and fell to second, 2.0 games behind the league leader.

But my best pick in terms of value was nailing my pre-draft target and getting Raul Ibanez in the 9th round. As all baseball fans, fantasy or otherwise, know by now, Raul Ibanez has been off to a torrid start in 2009. Just look at the numbers:

• 2009 (55 games): 19 HR, 54 RBI, 46 R, .329 BA, 1.062 OPS

In fact, the 37-year old Ibanez has been so good that it has led to the inevitable speculation that his improvement may be attributable to factors other than his new lineup, playing in a better ballpark for hitters, or additional maturation as a hitter. In this day and age of suspicion at any significant jump in numbers, even over small sample sizes, it is what it is – and such speculation is to be expected.

In fact, this morning I woke up to the following message board post in the league in which I own Ibanez. (FYI, my team name is Hitting Crean-Up, hence the reference to “crean”):

sorry, crean, but i must call bullshit on raul ibanez. you’re an objective man so i am sure you’ll love it while it lasts, but do not intend on it lasting forever. of course crazier things have been sustainable.

where have we seen this before? a recent 37th birthday is celebrated with a career year in home runs??? prior to this year ibanez has a career high of 33 home runs in one season and no other season of his 14 played with greater than 24 home runs!!! during his previous career year ibanez hit a HR roughly every 19 at bats and this year his pace is roughly every 11.

i thought they were testing???

My initial reaction was to get defensive and reply by saying that Ibanez’s numbers in 2009 were based on what I assumed were significant differences in ballpark factors between Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field. Ibanez, I surmised, a left-handed hitter, was simply taking advantage of the lefty-friendly dimensions of Citizen’s Bank Park that had helped to make Ryan Howard such a beast.

However, I resisted the urge to fire back a gut-reaction retort and decided to do a little investigation. I figured that before responding I should put together my case that there were perfectly logical reasons to explain Ibanez’s breakout that would help counter any steroid speculation.

First, I looked at the dimensions of both Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field, courtesy of BaseballFanatics.net. Here they are:

As you can see, Citizens Bank Park has shorter dimensions to every part of the park expect down the right field line, where it is four feet longer than Safeco. Clearly, these dimensions are part of the reason why Citizens’ Bank Park is considered such a great hitters’ park.

However, I have to say that I was surprised when I looked at the Park Factor rankings on ESPN.com. I expected Citizens Bank Park to be among the top 5 best hitters’ parks in baseball, just based on reputation. That is not the case, at least according to the park factors metrics used by ESPN (which are explained if you click the links below).

Below is a park factor comparison (for runs and HRs) between Citizens Bank Park and Safeco Field. 1.000 is average; higher than 1.000 means the park favors hitters, lower than 1.000 means the park favors pitchers.

Park Factor Comparison

Conclusions? For me, I was surprised that Citizens Bank Park did not rate higher. Clearly it is a better hitters’ park than Safeco Field, but the differences in the HR factor do not account for the significant jump in Ibanez’s HR totals now that he has made the switch.

From 2006-2008, Raul Ibanez’s ratio for AB/HR was 23.8, including his career year in 2006 when he hit 33 HRs. In his home games this season, Ibanez has hit 8 HR in 93 AB, which is a HR every 11.6 ABs. Based on the four-year averages of the HR factors of Citizens Bank Park (1.165) and Safeco (0.9225), we would expect Ibanez’s HR rate at home to increase 21%. It has improved much more than 21% however, more than doubling so far in 2009.

But Ibanez is not just taking advantage of his home ballpark.

In his road games this season, Ibanez has hit 11 HR in 126 ABs, which is good for a HR every 11.45 ABs. So his HR rate is actually slightly better on the road, which I did not expect since my gut-reaction thinking was that Ibanez was simply enjoying the more hitter-friendly home cooking at Citzens Bank Park.

So in actuality, and in opposition of my initial hypothesis, through the relatively small sample size of 55 games it is impossible to say that Ibanez’s prodigious jump in HR/AB has been solely a factor of his new ballpark.

What else could explain Ibanez’s bump in power? Considering that 11 of his 19 HRs have come on the road, perhaps we should explore the ballparks where those home runs have been hit. And to do that, I visited a site that will be fascinating for other stat geeks like me: HitTrackerOnline.com. I sorted the Phillies’ 2009 HRs by name to do a closer analysis of Ibanez’s HRs this season.

Here are the ballparks where Raul Ibanez has hit HRs this season, with their current 2009 HR factor in parentheses.

• Citizens Bank Park: 8 (1.021)
• Nationals Park: 4 (.808)
• Yankee Stadium: 2 (1.563)
• Great American Ballpark: 2 (1.182)
• PETCO Park: 2 (0.736)
• Coors Field: 1 (0.943)

As you can see, Raul Ibanez has enjoyed success at three of the most notorious hitters’ parks in baseball: the new Yankee Stadium, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, and Coors Field (though the overall HR numbers at Coors are down this year). Nationals Park and PETCO Park have always been known as more pitcher-friendly, and considering that 6 of Ibanez’s HRs have come at these parks, it seems to balance out the effect of his 5 HRs at NY, CIN, and CO.

But let’s again take a closer look. These are the pitchers that Ibanez has hit HRs off of at Nationals Park and PETCO Park, with their season ERA in parenthesis:

• Daniel Cabrera (5.85 ERA)
• Scott Olsen – twice (7.24 ERA)
• Saul Rivera (8.49 ERA)
• Josh Geer (5.60 ERA)
• Joe Thatcher (4.50 ERA)

So Raul Ibanez has feasted on terrible pitching, even in parks that are tougher to hit home runs in. What does this mean? I’m not really sure. Most hitters obviously will perform better against bad pitching than they do against good pitching. But over the small sample size we’ve seen through 55 games, perhaps Ibanez has seen more than his normal share of bad pitching and has taken advantage of it. I don’t have time to dig into this any more this morning, so I’ll just leave that hanging there as a potential explanation for a portion of Ibanez’s HR and OPS explosion.

And even though Ibanez’s aggregate numbers in 2009 are incredible, there are signs that he is starting to slow down a bit. So far in June, through 32 ABs Ibanez has 2 HRs. This rate of 16 ABs per HR is a little bit closer to his career average, and to the improvement we might have expected based on the differential in HR factor between his new home park and his old home park. While it’s a terribly small sample size to draw too many conclusions from, but it is one more piece of data we can look at.

I also wondered whether Raul Ibanez was historically a fast starter, and perhaps that was helping to contribute to his fast start. Look at Ibanez’s career splits, however, and you see that this is not the case. Ibanez’s career pre-All Star break HR rate is 1 every 23.9 ABs. His career post-All Star break HR rate is 1 every 26.0 ABs. So he has slightly more power during the first half of the season, but the difference is not significant enough to explain his torrid start in 2009. Besides, his BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS are all slightly better during the second half of the season.

Now that we have gone ’round and ’round with all of these stats — my attempt to be an “objective man” in response to the message board comment from this morning — what can we conclude?

First off, we can conclude that I made one hell of a draft pick. Whatever the explanation for Ibanez’s great start, I’m just glad it’s happening on my roster and not on somebody else’s.

Secondly, we have to acknowledge the obvious caveat that 55 games is not a full season and is still a relatively small sample size. Ibanez could very easily slow down and finish with 30-35 HRs (which is actually my expectation for what will happen), which would still be an above average season based on his career stats, but certainly not as eye-popping and outside the mean as the pace he is on right now. The truth is that even I, the most ardent Ibanez supporter heading into 2009, do not expect him to maintain his current 600 AB pace and hit 52 home runs.

Thirdly, it’s time for me to begrudgingly acknowledge the elephant in the room: any aging hitter who puts up numbers this much better than his career averages is going to immediately generate suspicion that the numbers are not natural, that perhaps he is under the influence of some sort of performance enhancer. And since I was not able to draw any absolute parallels between his prodigously improved HR rate and his new ballpark’s hitter-friendliness, it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility that “other” performance enhancers could be part of the equation.

Sorry Raul Ibanez and Major League Baseball, that’s just the era that we are in — testing or no testing.

Personally, I am withholding judgment until we see a full seasons’ worth of stats. Many players put together terrific runs of 150-250 ABs in the midst of otherwise normal or just slightly above average (based on their career numbers) seasons. Ibanez’s terrific 219 AB run since Opening Day is just magnified right now because it came at the start of the season.

Maybe he was energized by joining the defending World Series champs.

Maybe he is seeing better pitchers by joining a lineup that includes Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino.

Maybe he is in the midst of a run of good luck in which he’s seeing good pitches to hit at above-average hitters parks and finding himself facing terrible pitchers even at the tougher hitters parks he’s played in.

Maybe Raul Ibanez is simply a “freak”, and has been a late bloomer with a career track that refuses to follow the norm, as explained in this Bleacher Report post.

Maybe the 37-year old Ibanez trained differently this offseason with the pressure of joining the Phillies’ great lineup and is in the best shape he’s ever been in.

And maybe that training included…

Well, you know where that one was going, but I’d prefer to leave it as unstated speculation. However, if Ibanez ends up hitting 45-50 homers this year, you can bet that I won’t be the only one raising the question. And judging by my buddy’s message board post this morning, and questions like this in public forums, people already are.

For the record, Ibanez has denied ever using steroids. Back in 2007 when former Mariners OF Shane Monahan said that the clubhouse culture in Seattle led him to use steroids, Ibanez and Jamie Moyer came out and publicly lambasted Monahan while denying that steroids had ever been a presence in the Mariners clubhouse. Of course, as well all know, explicit denials of steroid use don’t really mean a whole hell of a lot these days.

It will be a wonderful day when we can see a great start by a veteran like Ibanez and not immediately jump to speculating about whether steroids or PEDs are involved. We certainly are not at that point yet, however.

And whether we ever get there remains to be seen.

But whatever the reason for Raul Ibanez’s oustanding run this far in 2009, I hope to see it continue. Regardless of why it’s happening, it’s happening. And like I said before, better that it happens on my roster than somebody else’s.

Update 6/9: At Philly.com this morning, John Gonzalez takes me to task a bit for firing what he deems as a “cheap shot” at Raul Ibanez. Here is an excerpt from his article, and the link if you want to read it all.

The MSF post, written by the previously undiscovered poet “JRod,” noted that Ibanez has bashed the majority of his 19 homers at hitter-friendly parks like the new Yankee Stadium, Great American Ball Park in Cincy, and Citizens Bank Park. It also conceded that Ibanez has taken advantage of some really terrible pitchers – guys like Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and Saul Rivera, all of whom have badly bloated ERAs.

Then JRod dismissed all the evidence of opportunism, pivoted like a second baseman turning a double play, and fired his conclusion into the mitts of conspiracy theorists and amateur drug testers everywhere: “Any aging hitter who puts up numbers this much better than his career averages is going to immediately generate suspicion that the numbers are not natural, that perhaps he is under the influence of some sort of performance enhancer. . . . Maybe the 37-year-old Ibanez trained differently this off-season with the pressure of joining the Phillies’ great lineup and is in the best shape he’s ever been in. And maybe that training included. . . . Well, you know where that one was going, but I’d prefer to leave it as unstated speculation.”

Yeah, except when you put the words “under the influence” in close proximity to “performance enhancer,” that’s not really “unstated speculation.” That’s pretty much an updated version of the old “Hey, pal, have you stopped beating your wife yet?” trick.

In response, I don’t believe that I “dismissed all the evidence of opportunism.” I actually set out to disprove the speculation that Raul Ibanez’s great start was somehow PED-induced. And my conclusion was that it was impossble to conclude that from a simple examination of ballpark factors and lineup improvement, and that the reality of Major League Baseball today is that the unfortunate logical progression takes us all to the place we don’t want to go: thinking that an aging hitter putting up career-high numbers across the board might be chemically enhanced.

Fair for Raul Ibanez? Absolutely not. Just look at the title of my post. But fair for Major League Baseball overall based on its past? Absolutely.

In fairness to John, I think his primary point was more about the rapid speed with which a story like mine, fraught with speculation, can take off in today’s day and age. And he’s right, even though so far only 300 people had even read the post, which started out as just a response to my buddy in a fantasy league.

I wrote John a quick email after reading his post, thanking him for the recognition and explaining my perspective a bit more. Here is the end of that email, as I think it is the best way to sum up this post before I move onto something else for today:

I set out trying to disprove that there was reason to speculate, but the past 15 or so years has made it hard to do so. I always defended Manny Ramirez and he made me and a lot of other people look like a fool; and honestly, that re-opened the floodgates to me erring on the side guilty until proven innocent, as opposed to the other way around — as it should be.

The truth is that I sincerely hope that Raul Ibanez and every other major leaguer is clean. And there is no way I could look him in the eye and tell him I think he’s on steroids — nor was that my conclusion. But I think it’s also true that Raul Ibanez would have a hard time looking baseball fans in the eye and saying they have no right to speculate. Through no fault of his own, but through that of his peers past and present, steroid speculation is now as much a part of baseball as the MLB Network.

Sad is definitely the most apt word to describe it.

As a proud Porcello fantasy owner, I had been contemplating a shout-out and analysis of this young pitching phenom for a couple of weeks. Well, an email that dropped into my inbox a few minutes ago finally compelled me to hop into WordPress and write, and the email was from Friend of MSF Josh Q. Public.

Josh Q. wrote a post earlier today extolling the prodigy-like virtues of the Tigers’ young mound virtuoso who is off to a very auspicious beginning in 2009. Follow the link to read Josh Q’s post about Rick Porcello…then come back and here and tell me your thoughts aren’t forming as lyrical verses. (Love the style Josh Q.)

But this post is not about playing grab ass with a fellow sports blogger; it’s about discussing Rick Porcello, who is only 20 years old but already owns 6 major league victories and is currently riding an incredible 5-game winning streak that is comparable only to a streak achieved by Doc Gooden back during “Doctor K’s” amazing 1984 rookie season.

As pointed out in the post by Josh Q. Public referenced above:

Only one pitcher in major league history as young as Porcello went 5-0 with an earned run average of 1.50 or better over any five-start span. Wanna know who that guy is? Sure you do. That guy is none other than Dwight Gooden. Doc, at age 19, went 5-0 with a 1.43 earned run average over a five-start span in 1984.

First, let’s take a look at Porcello’s stats thus far in 2009:

• 6-3 record in 9 starts
• 51.2 innings pitched
• Less than a hit per inning (46 total)
• A 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (32:16 total)
• A batting average against of .236
• A solid ERA and WHIP combo of 3.48 and 1.20

Now, lets take a look at the Porcello’s last 5 starts:

• 5-0 record with wins over Minnesota, Cleveland, Oakland, Colorado, and Kansas City
• Only 1 home run given up
• Only 5 total earned runs given up
• Only 22 hits given up in 30 innings
• All 5 starts have been Quality Starts

And this guy is how old?

The first thing any detractors will say is that Porcello has not exactly been pitching against the best offenses in Major League Baseball. Minnesota’s offense has been hot since getting Joe Mauer back, but KC, Colorado, Oakland, and Cleveland aren’t necessarily scaring anyone. Porcello did pitch against the Yankees earlier in the year and had his worst outing when he gave up 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. A quick look at the Tigers’ schedule in June shows that Porcello will likely be starting against the Red Sox, the Angels, the Pirates, the Cardinals, the Cubs, and the Oakland again.

So the questions are: can Porcello keep this up and what should you do with him as a fantasy owner?

Regarding the question of whether or not Porcello can keep his current streak up, obviously the answer is no. He is not going to win every start, nor is he going to hold every team to two earned runs or less. However, maintaining his current ERA of 3.48 and winning a minimum of 8-10 starts over the balance of the season certainly is within his reach, even at the young age of 20.

The reason is that Rick Porcello is not your typical 20-year old pitcher.

According to MLB.com, coming into the 2009 season Rick Porcello was the #4 overall prospect in baseball. Last year at the Class A Advanced Florida State League, Porcello flashed his potential by generating a 2.66 ERA and a WHIP of 1.29. He was also remarkably consistent, never posting an ERA higher than 3.43 in any month. An how about this little excerpt here:

Upside potential: Ace, All-Star, Cy Young candidate, you name it. He’s been compared to Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Roy Oswalt and Josh Beckett.

Damn. That’s some pretty lofty company to be compared to. And thus far in 2009, only Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander have turned in better overall stats than Porcello.

According to every scouting report you read about Porcello, he has the following:

• mid-90s two sean and four-seam fastball that he can throw consistently for strikes and ground balls.
• an improved curveball
• a solid changeup that he can throw in any count
• makeup and mound presence that are “off the charts”

Porcello has given up 7 home runs in his 51.2 innings, so I’d like to see that ratio drop a bit, and we’d all love to see a little more dominant K:BB ratio than 2:1, but I feel like I’m nit-picking. Porcello is a pitcher that I plucked off the waiver wire in one fantasy league and have since started and dropped him about three different times, not quite believing that he would continue pitching so well.

After his last five starts, I am dropping him no more.

But moving onto the second question posed above, what should you do with Porcello if you own him? Obviously you should hang onto him if the alternative is dropping him, but is he a good sell-high candidate? The answer is that he could be, depending on what you get in return.

As a young pitcher, there is still risk with Porcello. Only the most talented and mentally tough young pitchers can make through a full rookie season without substantial inconsistency. We’ve certainly seen pitchers do it, but it is not the norm. The more I read about Porcello though, the more I am beginning to believe that he could very well be that rare rookie pitcher who can consistently post solid starts all year long, with the occasional blip like he had against the Yankees earlier this year.

The other question involves how many innings young Porcello will pitch in this day and age of teams treating young pitching phenoms like porcelain dolls. Last year, Porcello threw 125 innings in Class A. At his current rate of a little less than 6 innings per start, Porcello would reach 170 2/3 innings after 30 starts, a jump of 45 innings. Whether the Tigers will allow this to happen is an unknown, but with the team in first place and Porcello throwing so well, it will be hard for them to justify removing him from the rotation barring some sort of injury. The potential certainly exists, however, for Porcello’s performance to drop some should his arm begin to tire.

More likely, at least as I see it, is that Porcello does reach at least 175-185 innings this season with stats comparable to what he has now. More worrisome in this regard will be how Porcello bounces back next year, because any decent fantasy owner understands the risk inherent in pitchers with that kind of year-over-year innings jump. (Case in point, the early season struggles of John Danks this year.)

This morning, I offered one of the guys in my league Porcello and Joakim Soria for Dustin Pedroia. I have a great offense, but a gaping hole at 2B (which could be filled by Alexei Ramirez had I not been a douche and dropped him). I also have John Smoltz, who appears poised for a return in June, along with Roy Halladay, Scott Baker, John Danks, Joe Saunders, and David Price. This is not a standard 5X5 league, but rather a head-to-head league in which negative stats like BB, H, and ER are used with a minimum innings requirement; thus, you cannot simply start your pitchers in every game and they have inherently less value compared to offensive players that in normal leagues.

However, after doing some research for this post, I have rescinded the offer.

I think there is a very good chance that Rick Porcello could end up being my #2 pitcher over the course of the year, right behind the great Roy Halladay. Even for the reigning AL MVP Pedroia, I think I would be giving up too much, since Soria himself is no slouch. I am still going to explore trade offers, because Porcello’s value is reaching its high point with this amazing streak he is on. But unlike a few weeks ago, I’m not just willing to give him away as if he were replaceable on the waiver wire.

If you own Rick Porcello in fantasy, feel confident hanging onto him and starting him regularly until he coughs up two or three starts that you make you question his consistency. As of right now, there is absolutely nothing in his track record to suggest that the proverbial rug is going to be pulled out from under his solid production. But if you are thinking about trading him, make sure that you get another #2 or #3 starter in return, or an offensive player who will become a regular in your lineup.

And by all means if you are in a league with people who are asleep at the wheel and Porcello is available, run don’t walk to the waiver wire and pick him up. In Yahoo!, he is only owned in 73% of leagues, so apparently more than a quarter of leagues are indeed asleep at the wheel.

As a White Sox fan, I certainly hope Porcello stumbles because he and Justin Verlander appear poised to form a potent 1-2 punch atop the Tigers’ rotation for years to come. But as a baseball fan and fantasy baseball analyst and player, I have to admit that there is absolutely nothing to suggest that Rick Porcello will anything less than an All Star-level starting pitcher for the next decade, and it is beginning to look like he is already at that level right now and could stay there for the rest of 2009.

Baseball is nearly 1/3 through the season. Some relief pitchers are grabbing the 9th inning by the ball and taking care of business, some are evening out to their seasonal averages, and others are on the road to a let-down of a season for many fantasy owners. I’ll begin with the disappointments, move to the blessings this year, and suggest which RPs are worth a free agency pick-up.

Like every year, a good portion of the highly-acclaimed closers are flopping out. A few cases of shanking have been witnessed to the Phillies’ Brad Lidge (ERA: 9.15, WHIP 2.08), who sealed the deal on all 48 opportunities last season while giving up only 15 runs. Yet he was part of the World Series champs, and it’s just a historical fact that any team to win a title has poorer pitching the opening segment of the next season (White Sox after ’05 season especially). Lidge has already given up 5 more runs than he did all of last season. His numbers blow so far, yet his “mechanics” are “tweaked and without quandary”, according to Charlie Manuel. Lidge’s velocity remains in the 90’s, and claims he is “healthy in mind and body”.

Another few blown saves and the “health” of his position may be in jeopardy, and open the door for Ryan Madson. Don’t be surprised to see him in the 9th if Lidge keeps up his skit of blown games.

Another downer this year has been Jose Valverde. 8 innings so far, I suppose this is due to the calf injury. He will be back in a matter of weeks, so don’t plan for a return until late June, especially with LaTroy Hopkins Hawkins (thank you commenter for pointing out the spelling error) taking care of business the past couple of weeks. However, Valverde’s past 2 seasons have averaged 45 saves and a much improved command on his delivery from his ’06 season. Ride out the next few weeks with patience, and in the meantime consider Hopkins, who is only owned in 43 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Who else stinks this year? Matt Capps looks unpleasant in the numbers department (ERA: 6.60, WHIP: 1.93) so far this year. His nagging elbow injury may be slowing him down, though his trademark slider is looking solid at 95 mph. Look for his ERA to end up below 3.50 and around 35 saves, plus about a strike per inning. Hold onto this one, especially with backup scrubs in the Pittsburgh bullpen.

[Editor's Note: Since Josh submitted this post, Matt Capps has actually aggravated the elbow injury. The early reports are that it's not too serious, but enough to make him miss a week or two. John Grabow was the name being bandied about as the guy to get the saves while Capps is out.]

So far this year a few notable, middle-to-late round draft picks have lost their rights to the 9th. Toronto’s B.J. Ryan and Seattle’s Brandon Morrow are getting a taste of the set-up position. While Morrow is young and still has time to fix things, Ryan isn’t a likely candidate to rebirth any stellar numbers, at least this year with a shoulder burden. Scott Downs is taken in only 69 percent of leagues, pitches for at least a K/IP, and found his groove since the ’07-’08 seasons at the set-up position. It’s uncertain at what point Morrow will regain his closing job, but until then sponge up some saves from David Aardsma. Posting solid numbers so far, 24 Ks in 21 IP, and owned in 40 fricken percent of leagues? There’s a good chance you can track him down right now. Until these two “temporary” closers slip up a few games, expect to see them on the mound to close out games.

Now for the pleasant surprises.

Ex-Seattle SP Ryan Franklin has been solid for fantasy rosters this season. With 11 saves so far and no possible back-up threat (save Jason Motte), he seems to be in the saddle for the year at the closer. Expect infrequent bumps in his ERA throughout the season as he has streaks of less than stellar appearances on occasion, but with Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, and Adam Wainwright pitching with quality, Franklin will rake up about 37-40 saves this season.

Possibly the most impressive RP at this point, Trevor Hoffman has 11 saves thus far on the season, and he began in May. I would post his current ERA if he had one. You could say he’s the Joe Mauer of RP at this point. By that, I also mean the same for both players; sell high. Sell right now. Do it. Go offer trades, try and get some value. Hoffman is solid, but no one keeps a goose egg in ERA, even though a career ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of basically 1.00 might seem to suggest otherwise. Yet this nearly 42-year old grizzled veteran has seen his best days, and things start to fall apart when you commence middle age. If I haven’t stressed enough, trade him ASAP for someone you cherish.

Who else looks awesome right now? Rangers’ Frank Francisco also has yet to allow a run this season. His 10 saves are remarkable, especially with over 2 weeks on the DL with his throwing-arm (R) biceps tendinitis. Solid numbers last year as the set-up man show promise, yet I would not invest in this as a long-term investment of saves all season. In addition to an injury possibly hazing on his momentum, the early summer is thawing into the scorching fires of Texas climate, and balls are sure to be flying out of the The Ballpark incredibly soon. As the temperature climbs, be wary of a similar behavior in Frankie’s ERA as well.

Another stud is Jonathon Broxton, who set-up in the shadow of Takashi Saito for some years. My first inclination would be to advise trading him, being the No. 4 ranked player and all, but I’d rank him among elites Jonathon Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, and Francisco Rodriguez. History tells us you don’t trade consistency in the closer seat, and Broxton is headed in that direction.

Heath Bell will also place concrete numbers the rest of the season. A pitcher’s ballpark and several years of quality 8th inning appearances, ride him out the rest of the season.

With Joakim Soria about 10 days away, look for interim saves for the Royals from Juan Cruz, owned in 28 percent of leagues.

Other RP on the watch list: (owned %)

• Andrew Bailey (OAK) 50%
• J.J. Putz (NYM) 28%
• Michael Wuertz (OAK) 14%
• Chris Perez (STL) 12%
• Kiko Calero (FLA) 11%
• C.J. Wilson (TEX) 9%
• Edward Mujica (SD) <1% (Only if Heath Bell goes down)
• And any RP in Tampa Bay

Have an excess of relievers and saves? Sell high on these guys now for value at other positions:

• Frank Francisco
• Trevor Hoffman
• Francisco Cordero

Committee on saves:

• Kevin Gregg, Carlos Mármol (CHC)
• George Sherrill, Chris Ray (BAL)
• Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano (ATL)
• Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey (MIL) (only if Hoffman goes down, which is likely)
• Brad Ziegler, Andrew Bailey (OAK)

So what’s going on in Tampa Bay? If you guessed Troy Percival being on the DL, you’d be right more often than not. However, his trip has not only served to the DL, but also to his hometown in California, where he contemplates retirement. That means 9th inning door has opened, but to which RP?

There are 5 potential candidates:

• Grant Balfour
• Joe Nelson
• J.P. Howell
• Dan Wheeler
• Jason Isringhausen

Much of the closer consideration is based upon the pitiful 9th inning detonation by Cleveland in their 11-10 victory over the Rays. Wheeler has struggled in the closer role in the past and blows almost half of his save opportunities, therefore he makes more sense as a set-up man, to which he performs better anyway. Balfour is a big tool. Surrendering 3 runs in 1/3 innings essentially sealed his fate and will keep him from closing games anytime soon. As of now, the most experienced closer would be Isringhausen, but he blew his sole opportunity for the save after walking 3 batters and blowing the save to give Victor Martinez the winning drive. The competition reigns chiefly between Howell and Nelson.

Most non-closerlike closer in the game:

Award goes to Kerry Wood of the Cleveland Indians, who looks enthralled about closing for the worthless Indians.

• W-L: 1-2
• ERA: 7.20
• K: 20
• Walks: 10
• Saves: 7

This has been an inside scope on the Bullpens of Major League Baseball, stay tuned for more fantasy advice and updates in the next few weeks.

———-

DALLAS, Texas — May 26, 2009 — The National Unified Trust of the Society of Ass Clowns is pleased award Midwest Sports Fans author an “managing editor” JRod its esteemed Fantasy Baseball Douche Award for the week of May 25th, 2009. JRod has been named this week’s Fantasy Baseball Douche for his untimely and idiotic release of Alexei Ramirez early last week from his first place fantasy baseball team.

Despite extolling the virtues of the Cuban Missile earlier in the year — and being exactly right that Alexei Ramirez was simply off to a slow start and would turn it around — JRod decided to not even listen to his own advice, resulting in his releasing of Ramirez on May 21st. Since being released from JRod’s fantasy team, Alexei Ramirez has found a home hitting in the #2 hole and has gone 8-20 with 2 HRs, 6 RBI, 6 R, and 2 SB. For the season, Ramirez has overcome his putrid start to now have respectable totals for a second baseman of .243, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 14 R, and 8 SB, and obviously he is trending sharply upward.

N.U.T.S.A.C. would like to extend its most heartfelt congratulations to JRod for not only dropping a player with significant more upside than his current second baseman (Alberto Callapso of the Royals) but also for giving up on one of his favorite players in May. Nothing defines “douche” quite like that.

In related news, Lifetime Douchechievement Award winner recipient Jay Mariotti extends his most heartfelt congratulations to JRod.

“Well, I can’t say that I am pleased or proud to be winning this award,” JRod said in a statement. “However, I would like to state for the record that I held onto Alexei Ramirez in two other leagues and have reaped the fruits of Alexei’s success this week. Plus, I would be remiss if I did not point out that one of my motivating factors in dropping Alexei was the knowledge that each year I drop a player and he goes on to post incredible numbers the rest of the season. I was hopeful that by releasing Alexei it would help to turn his season around – which it did, almost immediately.”

After learning of JRod’s statement, N.U.T.S.A.C. has decided to also award him with next week’s Douche Award for using the phrase “reaped the fruits” and for making up a stupid excuse to rationalize his indefensible release of a ridiculously talented player on his own favorite team with a history of slow starts. To be fair, the fantasy team in question does currently sit in first place (thanks to lucky later round picks of Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Raul Ibanez) but how soon will that last with such a moronic loose cannon at the helm?

Congratulations JRod. You are this week’s N.U.T.S.A.C. Fantasy Baseball Douche.

———-

Okay, moving along now.

After a horrific 9-day stretch during which the White Sox went 1-7 and began to fall deep into the depths of the AL Central standings, the team rebounded for an absolutely necessary 5-2 week that got the Sox within 4 games of .500. Of course, this is the White Sox, so it was a 5-2 record unlike many you will see. The 5 wins included a 17-3 thrashing of the Angels last night, a series win against division rival Minnesota, and two straight shutouts against Pittsburgh in Interleague Play.

Amazingly, the two straight shutouts of the Pirates came immediately after the White Sox gave up 20 runs in a loss to the Twins. And the Sox other loss was a heartbreaking 4-3 defeat in the final game of the Pittsburgh series when Bobby Jenks blew the save. The inability of the White Sox to close out a sweep, or win the final game of a series, continues a disturbing trend. Thus far in 2009 the White Sox are 4-11 in the last game of a series. I guess that means no coffee for the White Sox.

Still, 5-2 is 5-2 and right now the White Sox and their fans will take any signs of life and positivity they can get. Last night’s 17-run explosion was certainly a sign of life, and hopefully it will continue. This season is far from over, with the White Sox 5.5 games out of the first place and only 1.5 games back of 2nd place Kansas City. Obviously with plenty of games left against Detroit and the rest of the AL Central remaining, nothing has been decided. And the White Sox veteran core is proving more and more every year that they don’t get hot until the weather warms up, so perhaps this kind of start is what we should have expected.

Of course, not everything was birthday cakes and butterflies last night. Struggling but ultra-important left fielder Carlos Quentin got hurt…again…after doubling in a run in the first inning. He was limping badly after feeling a pop in his sore foot and had to be helped off the field. The reports on Chisox.com actually sound pretty positive though, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed:

That pop cost Quentin the rest of the game and probably the remainder of this three-game set at Angel Stadium. But surprisingly, the injury might not be as bad as it sounds.

“Supposedly, from what I understand from [White Sox athletic trainer Herm Schneider], it is a good thing,” said White Sox bench coach Joey Cora, serving as manager in Ozzie Guillen’s absence. “But we’ll find out [tomorrow].”

By tomorrow, of course, they mean today. I’ll be scouring for news and will update if anything more is known about TCQ’s injury.

In other White Sox news…

Clayton Richard moving back to the bullpen once Jose Contreras is ready to rejoin the club may not be a foregone conclusion; nor should it be. Clayton has pitched very well over the past couple of weeks since being moved into the rotation, and he is a purported building block for the future.

I love Jose Contreras, but his ERAs from 2007-2009 (through 6 starts) are 5.57, 4.54, 8.19. He just has not been the same since being one of the most dominant pitchers in the league through the first half of 2006. I think that Ozzie needs to decide whether he will move forward with Contreras or Colon, but leave Clayton Richard alone. (And when I say “leave Clayton Richard alone”, I mean in regards to his rotation spot…not Ozzie’s apparent propensity for fondling the strapping youngster’s pecs. We should really do a caption contest for the pic to the right…) And if Richard begins to struggle, we can always plug the odd man out between Colon and Contreras back in. Regardless of how Ozzie juggles it, I want to see Richard show what he can do with consistent starts.

Congratulations to Jim Thome for passing Mike Schmidt and taking ahold of the 13th spot on the all-time home run list. I was not a fan of Jim Thome before he got to the White Sox and it took me awhile to warm up to him once he got here, but his homer in the 1-0 victory over Minnesota in last year’s one-game playoff earned him my appreciation. Way to go Jim.

Colon faces Joe Saunders tonight at 9:05 CDT on WCIU. Hopefully we can make it 6 out of 8.

The post is an ode to that man.

Some baseball players strive for media attention. Some baseball players simply replicate their sucky numbers from year to year. Then, there are baseball players who settle for nothing below supremacy.

Cut all the suspenseful build-up crap; I’m talking about Roy Halladay.

Who’s that, a baseball novice may ask? He plays half his season outside the U.S. and pitches for the former basement team of the AL East. So there is no fluorescent light show here. This is what makes him a discreet and respectable guy. In addition to the consistently dominant performances each season, his countless years of production and his lack of obsession with the spotlight make Roy Halladay the Most Underrated Man in the World.

And while Roy Halladay is certainly interesting, as you will find out by reading below, he fell just short of qualifying for the title of the Most Interesting Man in the World. Unfortunately, until Roy Halladay can mail a letter without postage and still have it reach its destination, he will never compare to El Senor mas Interesante del Mundo:

However, let’s see The Most Interesting Man in the World try to post the following outstanding statistics, which our hero Roy Halladay has posted over the last 10 years in the majors:

• ERA: 3.49
• WHIP: 1.20
• K’s: 1344
• W-L: 139-67

The numbers posted by Roy Halladay this year aren’t too shabby either after 68 innings of work:

• ERA: 2.78
• WHIP: 1.04
• Ks: 57
• W-L: 8-1

Yet this spectacle of numbers alone does not elevate a man to greatness. Or to the esteemed status of Most Underrated Man in the World.

What separates Roy Halladay from the rest is his concerning and munificent nature. As a Mormon, his responsibility is to go on mission for two years as a young man. Straight out of high school, his primary priority was not for himself, but to tend to his family. Taking care of the family is not every rich guy’s foremost concern.

But then again, Roy Halladay isn’t every guy.

“According to Brandi, her husband – the Jays’ starting ace who is making $10 million this season – refuses to look at his pay stub. He often simply hands the envelope over to her with his head turned away.

‘It bothers him to make as much money as he does,’ Brandi, 34, said. ‘He feels like he’s out there doing his job. Should he get paid? Of course he should be paid. But there’s a lot of people out there that work hard. He works hard at what he does, but it doesn’t mean that other people out there don’t deserve those kinds of cheques, too. It’s kind of humbling. (His charity work) is his way of paying back.’”

If the modest nature of Roy Halladay is not already clearly outlined, he seems to travel above and beyond conventional “charity.” He is the textbook definition of a humble man.

“The Halladays’ signature Doc’s Box program involves a luxury suite paid for by the pitcher to host sick children. It was a concept the Halladays insisted accompany his first multi-year contract. Roy and Brandi annually purchase and use the suite on the 300 Level of the Rogers Centre to host kids from the Hospital for Sick Children. They are trying to expand the use of the box to allow more people to take advantage of a day at the ballpark.”

That’s right. He’s the man.

How many people out there would willingly and without a second thought surrender a chunk of their $10 million paycheck? Put down your hands, Yankee players.

Go find me an MLB player with more character and credentials than Roy Halladay, and I’ll post something about them. But the truth is that Roy Halladay’s beard alone has experienced more acts of humility and mound greatness than a lesser pitcher’s entire body. Not unlike…

The story of Roy Halladay seems like a fantasy. How can a man so great and a pitcher so consistently dominant continue to elude the spotlight the superstardom? For the average baseball fan, Roy Halladay is little more than a great pitcher who toils in Canadian obscurity. But any fantasy baseball player worth his weight in Dos Equis knows that having Roy Halladay on a fantasy baseball roster is a fantasy in and of itself.

With that said, is there ever a good time to trade Roy Halladay? Let’s analyze his fantasy value and what you should ask for in return should you decide to leverage Halladay in a trade.

Fantasy Analysis: How to Value Roy Halladay in Trade Talks

If Roy Halladay is on your roster, you are holding an invaluable trading token to upgrade your team in any way you choose (replacing a weak position, trading for stats, trading for equal or greater value). Here is an example of a trade which was offered to me a few days ago:

Magglio Ordonez, Houston Street, Roy Halladay

for

Jon Lester, Andrew Bailey, Albert Pujols

As difficult as it is to part with my ace and possibly my favorite player in baseball, I could not pass up the best hitter in the game. And the truth is, unless you are receiving Pujols-like value in return, there is no good reason to relinquish Roy Halladay. The rest of the aforementioned trade is merely two guys for two, with the headline obviously being Pujols for Halladay. And now my offense has become immensely improved thanks to the power increase of Pujols over my other boy, Paul Konerko.

If you’re going to trade Roy Halladay, make sure you receive a top of the line player in return, as an easy argument is to show Halladay’s consistent statistics since…forever. If you want to trade for Roy, as I have tried in one league, managers are resilient to part with their All-Star. I don’t have much helpful advice to finding a good trade-off if you want to snatch him. Good luck with that. But remember that Roy Halladay remains vastly underrated, so if you are strategic and cunning, you could find attaining him a realistic possibility.

Although if this guy is in your fantasy league, something tells me he would hang on to Roy Halladay at all costs.

Roy Halladay is a true man. He is tenaciously aware of those less fortunate around him (including his bullpen) and strives to promote positivity whether it’s a monetary donation or a K on a low and inside slider. He performs quality starts both on a mound and in helping those in need (Yes, even fantasy owners too).

His fantasy and real-life baseball value are expanding faster than Bobby Jenks’ waistline. He once walked a batter, just to see what it felt like. He lives vicariously, through his strikeouts.

He is…the Most Underrated Man in the World.

I don’t often draft pitchers in the early rounds of fantasy baseball drafts. I don’t often start them in extreme hitters’ parks like the new Yankee Stadium.

But when I do, I draft…Roy Halladay.

Start Halladay, my friends.

Suck it, Cubs fans

Alright, maybe it’s a little early for impetuous smack-talk, but I just watched Alexei Ramirez jack his 5th grand slam with the White Sox last night, and I remembered suddenly that euphoric stroke of what it means to be a White Sox fan. Furthermore, my boy Paul Konerko finally looks like he has his body healthy and capable this season.

Amidst the strange standings referenced above come equally aberrant fantasy stats for many players. I’m here to sort out the current hot starters that you should deal high and the frosty players to reel in low.

Note: I am a firm believer in praising AVG in standard 5×5 leagues. If you can get on base, you have the world of stats open to you. Every stat has a greater potential to react positively if a batter’s average is higher.  Also, all rankings and position eligibilities referenced below are based on Yahoo! rankings.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice and Tips: Players to Reel In

Alexei Ramirez – Yeah, he nailed a grand slam last night, but that only minutely fuels the alarming path Alexei is going to be on for the rest of the season. Ignore the average. He bats .172 in April on average, then the Cuban Missile launches to .288 in May, and doesn’t look back as he soars beyond .300 the next months.

Move over, Robin Ventura. With five career grand slams already as a White Sox player, Alexei is as clutch as they come.

Ramirez came up last year and fooled pitchers with his unique batting, and his technique continues to adapt. This guy’s potential has no limit; in AVG, HRs, RBIs, Runs, and SB, he has enormous potential to be a 5-category helper. 92% of leagues own him. If you can’t pick him up, trade now and be rewarded for the rest of the season. His versatility at positions 2B, SS, and OF make him easy to trade and put on your roster.

Lance Berkman – Berkman’s .167 is not a good average. It’s been 3 weeks already, but remember: it’s only been 3 weeks. Berkman delivers in AVG, HR, RBI, Runs, and, apparently from last year, his first season with double-digit steals at 18, he also is capable of producing in that category as well.

Many think the 33-year old is on the decline, but I say differently. You don’t switch from a career-high 9 SB to twice as many if you body feels “old.” Since 2001, only one year has Berkman missed more than 10 games. 6 out of 8 years he hits for more than 100 RBIs. In eight years, he is averaging 33 HRS a season.

Don’t be fooled by gossip; this guy is healthy, qualified, and April is his worst month in terms of almost every category anyway. Reel him in now, you will be showered with production the rest of the season.

Cole Hamels – He is pitching with an ERA of 10 and a WHIP of 2 right now. He had to readjust his delivery mechanics early on, and received a line drive to the shoulder last Thursday. Now that the grim beginning to 2009 is out of the way, the pitcher who is ranked around 194,036 (or 1166, give or take) looks “injury-prone” to many owners.

This is not the case.

When you increase from ’06’s 132 IP to 183, then to 227 in ‘08, aren’t you supposed to get “hurt” all the time from that increase? And is your ERA (4.08, 3.39, 3.09) WHIP (1.25, 1.12, 1.08) and K’s (145, 177, 196) supposed to improve substantially each year? These first 3 weeks are a fluke. They should not be precursors of any “indications” he is in trouble. I don’t believe he will be at a lower point in fantasy terms again in his career, so seize the opportunity to invest at Hamels’ low point.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice and Tips: Players to Deal Out:

Brandon Phillips – Mayday, Mayday, this liner is sinking faster than a brick. Every sign points to abandoning this ship. His career year came in ’07 with 30 HRs, 94 RBIs, and 32 SB. This was also the only year he didn’t miss 12+ games in his 7-year stint. With a career BA of .259, Phillips significantly lacks the power to have this squat average.

If you OBP fans are looking for a deal, turn away. Phillips has a .307 OBP in his career, and an average of 36 walks each of his 3 starting seasons. He is batting 4th, and this spot will stain his production in Runs. And if you’re batting .165, you’re not getting on base much. And if you don’t get on base with walks OR hits, you can’t steal them!

I do not trust one solid year to an overrated flop. He is owned in over 95% of leagues. Yes, finding 2nd basemen can be difficult, but trading his value now is a good idea before people realize he isn’t worth as much as they’d anticipated.

Matt Holliday – This is self-explanatory; going from the most renowned hitters’ ballpark of the MLB to McAfee Coliseum just demolishes any hopes of Holliday’s hitting numbers being what they were.

Since he is a solid hitter, his average may somehow make it’s way up to .300 by year’s end, but the dude won’t be hitting nearly the number of RBIs or HRs as he did in Coors Field. Expect to see his watered-down performance all year long. Do yourself a favor, and trade him quickly for value, and celebrate getting rid of the “Holliday.”

Orlando Husdon – Trade him immediately. His value will never be higher in his career. Several people want to hop on this gravy train for a hot 3-week start, but his career stats tell otherwise.

He will play about 135 games a year, produce around 11 HRs with 55 RBI and 14 SB a year. Does this look like the Number 15-ranked player in all of baseball? This is the perfect time to deal him out and get the most out of it. Anticipating his streak maintaining its course is like golfing in the dark. That analogy needs no further explanation.

Zack Greinke – The number 3 player in all of fantasy baseball. How much longer can his streak of 38 innings without an earned run keep up? All season hopefully? That would be great. But let’s see: increasing the pitch count from 122 innings to around 210? Looks alarming on paper.

Well it is. Pitchers have a history of injuries resulting from increasing innings over 30 from one year to the next. And Greinke did not just increase 30, but 90. He will throw his arm out at this rate.

Regardless of his amplified chance of going on the DL sometime this season, he is currently ranked number 3. Think of the possibilities. You reaped 38 flawless innings, so now trade for a more consistent, durable pitcher.

Yesterday, we regaled you with the first edition of Fantasy Baseball Believe It or Not, in which we analyzed the starts of Alexei Ramirez, Marco Scutaro, Raul Ibanez, and others. Hopefully you found it valuable.

Today, we are going to discuss some guys who are suggesting themselves as waiver wire sleepers for the rest of the 2009 season based on their pedigree, history, and production so far this April.

I have four fantasy teams this season, and I just spent the last hour scouring the waiver wire, trimming the fat off my roster, and looking to unearth a few guys who were overlooked to start this year but who are playing well — and could potentially keep it up.

Below is what I found out.

(Note: All position eligibility listings and ownership stats are based on Yahoo!)

2009 Fantasy Baseball Mixed 5×5 League Waiver Wire Sleepers

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Sleeper: Jeremy Hermida, Florida Marlins (OF – 43% ownership)

Hermida is playing well so far during the Marlins’ surprisingly torrid start to the season. He is hitting .316 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, and 1 SB. Most importantly, his K:BB ratio is nearly 1:1 (it’s 8:7). In 2007 and 2008, Jeremy Hermida’s combined K:BB ratio was 243:95. Not good.

So either the more disciplined start through 38 ABs is an anomaly produced by a small sample size, or Hermida is on the verge of living up to the potential that has had him on waiver wire sleeper lists seemingly this entire decade (but really only since about 2005-2006).

Here is the thing though: Jeremy Hermida is still only 25. And he has a tremendous pedigree as a former first round pick (11th overall) by a franchise that obviously knows how to scout talent. This should give you confidence that Hermida has the tools to become an above average player at the big league level.

Hermida reached the Majors at 21 in 2005 and obviously was not ready. He has spent portions of the last 3 years in the bigs as well, though never amassing more than the 502 ABs he got last year. In fact, Hermida somewhat regressed last season. But as a guy in the 25-27 age range who has 3+ years of Major League experience, Hermida’s 2009 campaign has breakout season written all over it. And this is being manifested with his fast start through 11 games in 2009.

I wouldn’t expect miracles, because Hermida’s K rate will surely regress at least somewhat towards his career average, and his spot in the lineup isn’t great. He is hitting 6th currently, behind Jorge Cantu and Dan Uggla — two guys more adept at clearing the bases than getting on base to be knocked in. And Hermida plays his home games at cavernous Pro Player Stadium, which limits his power potential.

However, across the board improvement over last season certainly appears reasonable. I would pencil Hermida in to hit .290-.300 with 25-30 HR, 85-95 RBI, and score 70-80 runs. He will also pilfer the occasional sack too. He is a guy that holds value as a 3rd OF or utility player, or a solid backup OF to fill in for your starters on off days. I’d run to the waiver wire to get him, because few guys still reasonably available hold as much potential value for 2009 as Jeremy Hermida.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Sleeper: Travis Snider, Toronto Blue Jays (OF – 55% ownership)

This is another guy that you may want to run to the waiver wire to check out. However, I will say this right now: even though the immediate buzz is stronger for Snider, and he is owned by more people, I like Hermida more because he has more big league experience.

But Snider’s potential is certainly dazzling.

He has started nine games for the Blue Jays so far this year and is hitting .321 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 6 R, and 1 SB, and is doing it all hitting in the 9 hole. Jays manager Cito Gaston does note want to place too much pressure on the young phenom, who was the 14th pick in the 1st round back ins 2006. And look at Travis Snider’s minor league statistics. Through three levels over three seasons leading up to 2009, Snider has hit .299 with 50 HR, 225 RBI, 197 R, and 12 SB in 1,302 minor league ABs. Thus, his production this year is not all that surprising.

Here’s what is surprising: through 28 ABs, Snider’s K:BB ratio is 2:1. This is better than his career minor league K:BB ratio of 330:140, and what he did in 74 ABs last season: 23:5. And while his propensity to strike out is not a great sign, though not that unusual for such a young player, he hit .301 in his 74 ABs last season, and was nearly a .300 hitter in the minors. So clearly, Travis Snider can still hit for average despite striking out a pretty high amount.

As a still very young and raw player, I would expect slight, though not great, improvement in his K:BB numbers this year. And as long as he’s hitting in the 9 hole, Snider’s potential for run production will be someone stunted. But if he keeps hitting like he is, he surely will be moved up and have a chance to drive in more runs.

I would be cautious with Travis Snider though. Once he has taken a full pass through the league, pitchers will adjust to him and he will have to adjust back. This is where many young hitters run into slumps and struggles, as it is their first time making adjustments at the big league level. Remember Jay Bruce last year? He took the NL by storm when he first came up as a former 1st round pick with a big bat but a propensity to strike out. His second time around the league he struggled mightily. There is a reason that 21-year olds rarely make big, consistent impacts over a full season at the ML level. So temper your expectations for Snider.

All that said, talent is talent – and Travis Snider has talent. I wouldn’t put him in at a top-3 OF spot and think you’re set for the whole year. But considering his hot start and his talent, he’s certainly worth a look. In keeper leagues, he obviously has even more value.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Sleeper: Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins (SP – 41% ownership)

Because of Glen Perkins, I would like to thank Chien-Ming Wang for his terrifically awful start yesterday against the Cleveland Indians. I needed Wang to give me six solid innings yesterday to complete my innings requirement for the week in one league. Wang, of course, did not even get out of the 2nd inning before giving up 8 ER. However, Wang’s failure sent me running to the waiver wire, where I found Glen Perkins and ended up thankful for my good fortune because I don’t think I’ll be letting Perkins go anytime soon.

This guy has many of the indicators of a waiver wire sleeper that you would want:

• Solid pedigree? Check. (Perkins was a 1st round pick by the Twins in 2004.)
• Stretched out arm? Check — but see below. (Glen Perkins has pitched 368.1 minor league innings, and threw 151 innings for the Twins last year.)
• Age? Check. (Perkins is 26, which is right in the 25-27 age range at which most talented players begin to reach their big league potential.)
• Solid peripherals? Check. (Perkins struggled somewhat in Minnesota last year with a WHIP of 1.47 and lower K/9 rate than his minor league track record would suggest. But this is a guy who struck out 380 hitters in his 368.1 minor league innings, with a WHIP of 1.268.)
• Solid start to 2009? Check. (Perkins is 0-1 but has thrown 8 innings in both starts with an ERA of 1.69 and a WHIP of 0.94. He has only struck out 8 batters, showing further proof that you should temper expectations for Ks, but he has only walked 3 batters in his two starts and is giving up less than one hit per inning.)
• Solid defense behind him? Check. (Perkins pitches for Minnesota, so we know he has a defense that will allow him to throw strikes, pitch to contact, and keep his BABIP against numbers low, thus maximizing his WHIP and ERA.)

If you want to know how to project Glen Perkins, I would say somewhere between his career minor league numbers and his numbers from last year. The drop in his K/9 rate is a little disconcerting, but if there is any team that can help mitigate that, it is the Twins. He may struggle for wins this year, because Minnesota is really struggling offensively, but with a full season I think he could match the 12 he got last year, to go along with an ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range and a whip around 1.30. Those are not ace numbers by any means, but good enough to round out your rotation as a #4 or #5 starter and to provide insurance in case one of your top guys goes down with injury.

One red flag with Perkins is the innings jump he made from 2007-2008. Here are his combined minor and major league innings pitched numbers as a professional:

• 2004: 60.0 IP
• 2005: 134.0 IP
• 2006: 121.1 IP
• 2007: 48.0 IP
• 2008: 184.1 IP

The Twins used Glen Perkins out of the bullpen in 2007, and he pitched well. However, he 136.1 inning jump from 2007 to 2008 could portend arm troubles this season and perhaps explain his diminishing K/9 rate. So just know that the possibility exists. But we’re talking waiver wire sleepers here. You wouldn’t trust Perkins as one of your top starters, nor should you. But he has value as a waiver wire pick up if he is still out there in your league.

Here are a few other guys I like as potential waiver wire sleepers for the balance of 2009:

• Endy Chavez, Seattle Mariners (OF – 27% owned) — 4 SB in 47 ABs
• Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins (OF – 26% owned) — 12 RBI in 41 ABs
• Chase Headley, San Diego Padres (OF, 3B – 28% owned) — 22 TB in 46 ABs
• Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates (1B – 43% owned) — 3 HR in 41 April ABs.
• Octavio Dotel, Chicago White Sox (RP – 38% owned) — 9 K in 4.2 IP
• Bartolo Colon, Chicago White Sox (SP – 21% owned) — 1-0, 3.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 2 starts
• Brian Bruney, New York Yankees (RP – 24% owned) — 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 12 Ks in 6 IP
• Dallas Braden, Oakland A’s (SP – 16% owned) — 1-1, 3.75 ERA in 2 starts

Now it’s time to go fire up stattracker and see how my teams fare today. Hopefully Glen Perkins backs me up with a good start this afternoon. Have a great Sunday everyone.

The main reason is the contrast between the day-to-day nature of fantasy baseball and the one-day-a-week nature of fantasy football. I like the daily action and the volume of games and stats that occur during the MLB season, allowing for sample sizes large enough for the cream to usually rise to the top. There seems to be much more luck involved in winning at fantasy football. While that is exciting in its own way, my preference will always be fantasy baseball.

So, now that we are nearly a full two weeks into the baseball season, it is time for some fantasy baseball analysis. I realize I am not Matthew Berry or Eric Karabell or any of the other tenured fantasy baseball experts out there, but I’m usually at the top of every league I play and I have a pretty good grasp on how to analyze and project players. So while you never want to trust one just one source of fantasy baseball information as the gospel, I feel confident providing actionable advice for you to take into consideration. With that said, now you can be the judge.

One of the regular features we will have here at MSF is Believe It or Not. Basically, this is just a cliched phrase to describe how we will analyze guys who are perhaps playing above or below expectations, and try to ascertain whether their performance should be believed as an actionable trend moving forward. In this first installment I’m going to analyze some guys on my teams that have surprised me positively or negatively so far this season to determine what I should do with them.

(FYI…I play in Yahoo! leagues for the most part. Position eligibility listed below is based on Yahoo’s method for eligibility determination. Most of the leagues I play are not strict 5×5 leagues, but I’ll try keep my analysis to that basis as it is what most people use.)

Marco Scutaro, Toronto Blue Jays (2B, 3B, SS)

This guy has been unreal. He’s hitting .326 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, and leading the AL in runs with 15. Plus, his OPS is a sick 1.113. Let’s just get one thing out of the way that we all know: if you’re expecting this level of production for the balance of the season, you will be disappointed. Scutaro is a career .262 hitter who has never slugged higher than .397 (in 2006 with Oakland, a season in which he had only 365 ABs).

Scutaro is in his mid-30s, so expecting a career year that is light years ahead of his career averages, the pace he is currently on, is unreasonable. Plus, Marco Scutaro has always been a guy who has played some of his best baseball in April. For his career, April is Scutaro’s second-highest month for BA, his highest for OBP, his second highest for SLG, and his second highest for OPS. And right now, Scutaro has been the beneficiary of great hitting behind him from Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, and Adam Lind. I think Toronto’s lineup has the potential to be surprisingly solid in 2009, but Lind is unproven over a full year, Aaron Hill is typically a fast starter in terms of power numbers who slows down, and we all know how often Vernon Wells gets hurt.

So, if you’re trying to decide whether Scutaro can be a solid starting MI in a ten-team league, I say don’t believe it. But as a guy who can fill in at three infield positions and be a solid sub in case of injury, he does have value. I am certainly hanging onto him, keeping him in the starting lineup as long as his bat stays hot, but tempering my expectations moving forward.

The fast start by Marco Scutaro: Don’t believe it

Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox (2B, SS, OF)

For the record, I promise to keep my White Sox bias and man crush on The Cuban Missile (a.k.a. Mr. Grand Slam) out of this analysis.

I don’t think anyone was as controversial before the season as Alexei Ramirez. Some people saw him as a Soriano-like infield stud (from the pre-Cubs days, before he moved to the OF) while some saw Alexei as a one year wonder whose free-swinging ways would lead to a sophomore slump. So far, the naysayers are winning as Alexei has struggled out of the gate with a .143 BA, 0 HRs, 3 RBIs, and 2 runs in 35 April ABs.

But guess what? If you looked at Alexei Ramirez’s stats from last April, you would not be so surprised at his slow start. In 29 April ABs in 2008, Alexei hit .138 with 0 HR, 2 RBIs, and 1 run. In case you need a memory jog, Alexei rebounded to finish at .290 with 21 HR, 77 RBI, 65 R, and 13 SB, finishing second to Evan Longoria for Rookie of the Year.

If I were you, I’d go out and trade for Alexei Ramirez right now, especially considering his multi-position eligibility in Yahoo! leagues.

Many owners may be starting to buy into the sophomore slump hype after his slow start, and may not understand that Alexei is most likely just a slow starter and a streaky hitter. Last year, he was dealing with the pressure of fighting for a consistent lineup spot and playing in a new country to go along with his slow start. But his immense natural talent took over and he played great from May on, building to a crescendo of 12 HRs in August and September.

This year, Alexei knows the Sox are committed to him and he is more comfortable in the U.S. The pressure this year is that pitchers know more about him and will try to exploit his free-swinging ways. If your league takes OBP into account, Alexei does not have quite as much value. But in a standard 5×5 league, I still think he will put up top-10 numbers at 2B or SS, meaning he should be a consistent starter.

You may have to ride out a few ups and downs, as his free-wheeling approach at the plate can make him somewhat streaky; but at the end of the year, the numbers will look good and he will provide much better production than, say, Marco Scutaro.

The slow start of Alexei Ramirez: Don’t believe it

Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies (OF)

This is a guy I targeted in all of my drafts as a tremendous value pick, and he certainly has not disappointed. Along with Jermaine Dye, Raul Ibanez is perhaps the most underappreciated fantasy OF of the last half decade, consistently providing value above his draft slot. And he is maintaining his consistency despite his advancing age. Even in Seattle’s cavernous SafeCo Field, Ibanez would have been a good pick. As a lefty hitting in Philadelphia, it was pretty obvious that his value would improve this season.

Just look at Ibanez’s stats over the past three seasons in Seattle:

• 2006: .289 BA, 33 HR, 123 RBI, 103 R in 626 ABs (career year)
• 2007: .291 BA, 21 HR, 105 RBI, 80 R in 573 ABs
• 2008: .293 BA, 23 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R in 635 ABs

And now look at his start so far in Philly, where he has a more hitter-friendly park and lineup to work with:

• 2009: .361 BA, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 9 R in 36 ABs

Ibanez is obviously not going to hit .361 for the whole season, but there is nothing about the other numbers that are outside the norm. You can pencil Ibanez in for a BA between .290-.300, 25-30 HR, 100+ RBI, and 100+ R (thanks to the ballpark and lineup improvements). That is set-it-and-forget-it type stuff that gives you consistent confidence at a #2 or #3 OF slot. If you are fortunate enough to have Raul Ibanez as a #3 OF, you are probably going to have a pretty good team.

If I were you, I’d throw out a feeler offer to Ibanez’s owner and see how much that owner values him. Ibanez is not a superstar or all that exciting, so some fantasy players do not realize how golden his consistently high production is. If you have him, and got him relatively late in the draft as a #3 OF, pat yourself on the back and do not part with him easily.

The solid start of Raul Ibanez: Believe it

And now, a few quick hits:

John Danks, Chicago White Sox (SP)

He is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 13 Ks in two starts. I love John Danks in real life and in keeper leagues, and I think the White Sox need to do anything necessary to get him signed for the long-term. From a fantasy perspective in 2009, however, I might see what I could get for him. Danks has already walked 7 batters in his two outings and his significant innings jump from 2007 to 2008 (139 to 195) could be a harbinger of arm troubles later this season. If you trade him, you should definitely get something good because Danks is one of the best young lefties in baseball; but if someone is willing to part with a really solid offensive player, I might try to capitalize on Danks’ hot start and hedge my bets against a second half drop-off.

The hot start of John Danks: Believe it to a degree, but be wary

Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees (SP)

This guy has been awful so far this year. And there are reasons to believe that his problems are more severe than just simply having a slow start and that his best days could be behind him. However, if you need pitching and he is on the waiver wire, think about this: for his career, Wang’s April ERA is a full run higher than his next highest month, which just so happens to be May. So obviously it takes Wang a few months to get the feel for his sinker, but he has been very solid throughout his career from June-September, with his worst month being August (3.81 career ERA, 1.39 career WHIP). Chien-Ming Wang is not a guy I would count on as a #1-#3 starter, but he can be a solid back-of-your-rotation kind of guy if you can stash him away until June.

The slooooow start of Chien-Ming Wang: Don’t believe it completely, but still be wary

Update: And by wary I mean horrifically terrified. Less than five hours after posting this, Chien-Ming Wang dropped a turd of a performance in his first start at the new Yankee Stadium. He gave up 8 earned runs to the lowly Cleveland Indians and couldn’t even get out of the 2nd inning. Perhaps his struggles this year are much more than just a slow start. He may be injured and/or completely messed up mentally and mechanically. If you are going to hang onto Wang, sit him at least until he strings a couple of solid starts together.

(Note: For the record, this is why I hate starting pitchers and always try to build my teams around a solid offense and a couple of proven, consistent closers (i.e. Joakim Soria, who I love and get every year). Starting pitchers can be very hard to project from year to year, or even month to month. You have to either get lucky with a healthy and effective starting staff throughout the year, or have a solid enough offense and bullpen to ride out the volatility of starters.)

And one final player for today:

Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox (OF)

Jason Bay is off to a great start, hitting .344 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 8 R, and most importantly only 6 Ks against 11 BBs. Keep in mind, Bay’s career K:BB ratio is 740:408. While Bay’s career numbers suggest that he can’t possibly keep up his nearly 2:1 BB:K ratio, I do think that his improved numbers after the trade to Boston last year foreshadow a great overall season from Bay this year. As a right-handed hitter in a park tailor-made for right-handed power hitters, the move to Boston is the best thing that ever could have happened to Jason Bay. After going at least 30-100-100-10 for two straight seasons in Pittsburgh, Bay was thought of among the elite OFs in the game. He struggled in 2007, but the rebounded last year. I think 2007 was the anomaly and that we’ll see another 30-100-100+ season from Bay in 2009. Keep him if you’ve got him and throw out a feeler trade if you don’t.

The fast start of Jason Bay: Believe it wholeheartedly

That’s it for today. Best of luck to everyone in head-to-head leagues this weekend. Hopefully your guys come through with solid performances to finish the week off strongly. Feel free to throw any questions in comment section and I’ll answer. I’m all about offering my perspective if it can help it any way.