Pace and Points Per Possession (PPP)

The purpose behind looking at scoring on a per-possession basis is that it normalizes teams who play at a variety of different tempos.

For instance, VMI ranks third in the nation at 83.1 points per game, but they play at one of the fastest paces in the country and don’t shoot the ball very well.  And just because Wisconsin is 252^nd overall in scoring doesn’t mean they are inherently terrible offensively.  Ultimately it boils down to a quantity versus quality proposition.

The first piece of the calculation is to arrive at the number of possessions in the game, which is defined as:

Field Goal Attempts – Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + 0.475 * Free Throw Attempts

A more detailed description of why this makes sense can be found at the old Big Ten Wonk site.

Once you have that, you can easily divide the points scored in the game by that number of possessions.  For a point of reference, here are some numbers through Friday’s games:

• National Average: 68.5 possessions per game
• Fastest Pace: Houston Baptist at 75.4 possessions per game
• Slowest Pace: Wisconsin at 58.9 possessions per game
• Average Points Per Possession: 1.01 ppp
• Most Efficient Offense: Missouri – 1.19 ppp
• Least Efficient Offense: Grambling – 0.78 ppp
• Most Efficient Defense: Ohio State – 0.84 ppp
• Least Efficient Defense: Nebraska Omaha – 1.18 ppp

The Four Factors

The other most commonly cited statistics are the “Four Factors,” which statistical pioneer Dean Oliver broke down in his book, Basketball on Paper.  In simplest terms, these are the four factors he deemed most critical to on-court success.

1. Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)

eFG% is calculated by:

(0.5 * Three-Pointers Made + Field Goals Made) / Field Goal Attempts

As you can see, the calculation is virtually the same as a standard field goal percentage, except that it gives additional credit for made three-pointers.  The calculation accounts for the fact that a made three is worth 50 percent more than a made two.  Big Ten Wonk says that eFG% “is roughly analogous to calculating a batting average using plate appearances instead of official at-bats.”

Through Thursday’s games, here are some key eFG% numbers to know:

• National Average: 49.0%
• Best on Offense: Creighton – 58.5%
• Worst on Offense: Grambling – 38.1%
• Best on Defense: Wisconsin – 39.9%
• Worst on Defense: Longwood – 57.8%

2. Turnover Rate (TO%)

The calculation for TO% is a simple one:

Turnovers / Possessions

Again, this normalizes the fact that two teams might each turn the ball over 15 times, but the impact of that is greater for a team that has just 60 possessions versus one that has 75.

Here are the numbers to know about TO% this season:

• National Average: 20.6%
• Best on Offense: Purdue – 13.8%
• Worst on Offense: Towson – 30.6%
• Best on Defense: Ohio State – 27.4%
• Worst on Defense: William & Mary – 14.8%

To put the Towson one in perspective, no one else is even over 26.4% for the year.

3. Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OReb%)

The calculation for OReb% is as follows:

Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds)

Instead of looking solely at the raw number of offensive rebounds a team gets, this reduces it to a rate by comparing to the number of missed shots.  Again, as Big Ten Wonk put it, “Rebounds are like hits—and missed shots are like at-bats.”  From an efficiency standpoint, the theory is that offensive rebounds essentially extend possessions and provide additional scoring opportunities.

Here’s a look at how OReb% has played out this year:

• National Average: 32.3%
• Best on Offense: Pittsburgh – 43.6%
• Worst on Offense: Hartford – 21.9%
• Best on Defense: Bucknell – 23.1%
• Worst on Defense: Alcorn State - 40.3%

4. Free Throw Rate (FTR)

Again, the calculation for FTR is a relatively simple one:

Free Throws Attempted / Field Goal Attempts

Ken Pomeroy says this metric “measures a player’s ability to get to the line relative to how often he attempts to score.”  In short, it’s a measure of aggressiveness.  Guys who are content to shoot jumpers and won’t attack the basket will end up with a low FTR, while others can provide increased value by making a concerted effort to get to the stripe.

Here are some key data points for FTR this season:

• National average: 36.5
• Best on Offense: New Mexico State - 55.3
• Worst on Offense: Troy – 23.6
• Best on Defense: North Carolina – 20.4
• Worst on Defense: Eastern Washington – 64.6

Some of these are pretty extreme.  For example, New Mexico State is the only team over 50.3, and for Eastern Washington, no one else is over 55.6.

So as you look forward to filling out your March Madness 2012 bracket when it comes out, efficiency numbers can provide a different point of view on many of the matchups, particularly as you’re comparing teams from a wide range of leagues with a variety of styles.  Sites like KenPom.com and Statsheet.com provide this data if you’d like to get more in depth.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Wednesday night featured a pair of great rivalry games, as Syracuse outlasted Georgetown in overtime and Austin Rivers capped off an impressive Duke comeback with a buzzer-beating three-pointer to win at the Dean Dome.  Throw in Murray State falling from the ranks of the unbeaten on Thursday night, and it’s been a solid week of basketball.

That action provides a nice springboard into a Saturday schedule that is shaping up to be even better.  Baylor-Missouri, Michigan State-Ohio State, Virginia-North Carolina, San Diego State-UNLV, and Wichita State-Creighton are just a handful of the intriguing matchups scheduled for the weekend.

But before you settle in for a weekend on the couch, here’s a look at this week’s risers and fallers in the world of college basketball.

Bottoms Line: Stock Up

Arizona

The Wildcats followed up road wins over Cal and Stanford by taking care of Colorado at home on Thursday night.  With Washington getting crushed at Oregon, the door is open for Arizona to be the Pac-12′s second tournament team.

While a talented group of freshmen were talked about prior to the season, veterans Kyle Fogg, Solomon Hill, and Jesse Perry have led Arizona’s recent resurgence.  Fogg poured in 23 at Cal, while Hill posted 20 points and 17 boards against Colorado this week.

The remaining schedule isn’t too daunting for the Wildcats, and if they can manage to win at Washington next weekend, they have a shot to finish 14-4 in the league.

Louisville

Monday’s 21-point win over UConn was Louisville’s fifth straight, as the Cardinals have quietly climbed the Big East standings in recent weeks.  Sophomore big man Gorgui Dieng has played well during that winning streak with 59 points, 51 boards, and 19 blocks over the last five games.

They also got news this week that highly regarded freshman Wayne Blackshear was cleared to play after missing the first few months of the season with a shoulder injury.  If healthy, he gives them another perimeter scorer and would allow Rick Pitino to expand his rotation a bit.

The Cardinals will use all the help they can get with three of their next four on the road, starting with Saturday at West Virginia followed by a home date with Syracuse on Big Monday.

Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes followed up Sunday’s critical overtime win at Duke with a win over Virginia Tech, which extended their winning streak to five.  The Duke win moved them into the RPI Top 40, and the committee will have to take into account the fact that four of the team’s seven losses came without Reggie Johnson and DeQuan Jones.

Jones is a nice complementary piece, but Johnson is a game-changer.  He  scored 27 points and grabbed 12 boards against Duke and had 15 points, seven rebounds, and four assists versus the Hokies.  The guard play has been solid as expected, while Florida transfer Kenny Kadji has been a revelation at power forward.

The next two games give Miami chances at additional signature wins, as they travel to Florida State on Saturday before hosting North Carolina next week.

Notre Dame

I wrote about the Irish a couple weeks ago, but they certainly have earned additional accolades.  They have now won five straight, including three road wins and three victories over ranked teams.

Notre Dame struggled from long range for most of the game against West Virginia, but they buried three straight threes late to pick up a win in Morgantown.  Jack Cooley had 21 points and 12 boards against the Mountaineers, and he now has five double-doubles in Big East play.  Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant have continued their solid play in the backcourt, and the defense has been terrific with four of the last five foes scoring 0.95 points per possession or less.

The Irish host DePaul and Rutgers in their next two games, and a 14-4 conference record is not out of the question.

Temple

While most of the teams in the Atlantic 10 are beating up on each other, the Owls have reeled off seven straight wins and are currently atop the standings.

The return of big man Micheal Eric has helped them defensively as well as on the glass, and the duo of Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt are averaging a combined 34.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 3.2 steals.  Both guys can shoot it well from beyond the arc, but both have also attempted over 100 free throws so far this year.

Temple’s next six games are against Top 100 teams, starting with Saturday night’s home game versus Xavier.

Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Arkansas

Wins over Mississippi State, Michigan, and Vanderbilt are terrific, but Arkansas won’t make the tournament if they can’t find a way to win on the road.  They have missed golden opportunities in their last two games, losing by six at LSU and getting steamrolled by 22 against a subpar Georgia team.

The fact that the Hogs are even in the NCAA discussion is impressive since Marshawn Powell played just two games before injury cut short his season, and young players like B.J. Young have a bright future.  That said, the opportunity to go dancing is there, but Arkansas needs to play well down the stretch.

Their best chance at a road win is at Auburn, and they also have home games against Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi.

Baylor

The Bears land here not just because they lost to Kansas at home, but moreso they way they lost.  After jumping out to an early lead, poor defense allowed the Jayhawks to rip off a 43-12 run.  They also made Jeff Withey look like an All-American with 25 points, and once again they played like a team that is mentally fragile and lacks toughness.

Scott Drew has done very little to make people more comfortable with his ability to make adjustments, and it’s tough to envision a scenario where Baylor goes into Missouri and wins on Saturday.  From a pure talent standpoint, very few teams can stack up with the Bears, but right now they serve only as further proof that talent alone isn’t enough.

Creighton

After reeling off 11 straight wins, the Bluejays have now dropped two straight to fall into second place in the Missouri Valley.  Admittedly, both losses came on the road, one on a three at the buzzer against Northern Iowa and the other by eight points at Evansville.

The Creighton defense allowed 1.08 points per possession in each game, and while that isn’t exactly impressive, this team will never be mistaken for an elite defensive squad.  However, their offensive production has also dipped in those games with 1.03 ppp against UNI and 0.95 versus Evansville.  Those are the lowest numbers they have posted since late December, and the 0.95 is a season low.

Saturday’s game against Wichita State was already important, but the Bluejays can ill afford to fall two games back of the Shockers in the MVC race.  A tournament berth isn’t in question, but these losses have definitely hurt their seed and their potential to play close to home in the first round.

Illinois

Since beating Ohio State, the Illini have lost five of six with the lone win coming in an ugly 42-41 game against Michigan State.  For much of the season, offense was a concern for Bruce Weber’s team, as they had scored over 1.00 ppp in just one of their first nine league games.

However, that has turned around in the past two games, but that improvement has been accompanied by their two worst defensive performances of the year.  Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard have both played well of late, but this team lacks reliable depth and doesn’t have a lot of confidence right now.

The fact that Illinois has four Top 50 wins definitely helps their tournament case, but the upcoming schedule doesn’t do them any favors.  The Illini have road games left against Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin as well as a home date with the Wolverines.

West Virginia

The Mountaineers have now lost four of their last five games, and their last two wins have come in overtime against Cincinnati and Providence, both of whom were in position to win those games late.

The defense has really struggled recently, as their last five opponents have all scored at least 1.07 ppp.  To put that in perspective, that happened just four times in their first 20 contests.  On the positive side, Kevin Jones has continued his outstanding play and is now averaging 20.6 points and 11.2 rebounds.

West Virginia’s next four games are brutal, starting with Saturday’s home game with Louisville.  They follow that up with road trips to Pitt and Notre Dame before returning home to face Marquette.

As always, Jerod, Ryan, and Andy will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Illinois Gameday Info

• Date: Thursday, February 9th
• Time: 8:00 ET, 7:00 CT
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Jimmy Jackson
• Point Spread: Indiana by 4.5
• Over-Under: 134
• KenPom Prediction: Indiana 74-63 with a 83% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Illinois
• IU-Penn State live tweet coverage: @AssemblyCall
• Assembly Call IU Postgame Show: http://assemblycall.com/live

IU-Illinois Preview

Illinois

The Illini come in losers of four of their last five games after falling to Northwestern at home on Sunday.  Brandon Paul poured in 22 points, while Meyers Leonard added 21, but once again the Illini got no scoring from their bench.  In fact, four players logged 39 or more minutes against the Wildcats, and only six guys played more than one minute.

Illinois’ lone win during that five-game stretch was a 42-41 victory over Michigan State in one of the ugliest games I have watched all season.  As that point total would indicate, the Illini have struggled offensively most of the season.  They have been held under 1.00 points per possession in seven of their last nine contests.

In conference play, the Illini rank 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency.  Their best attribute is their 51.3 percent shooting from two-point range, but they don’t shoot it nearly as well from beyond the arc.  They rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate, and they are next to last in turnover rate.  That’s good news for an IU team coming off of its best defensive performance in weeks.

That said, the Hoosiers can’t allow Brandon Paul to get clean looks.  Despite the fact that his efficiency numbers aren’t particularly impressive, he did explode for 43 points against Ohio State and has three 20-point efforts since then.  Paul has taken at least 11 shots in 11 straight games, so it will be important for the Hoosiers to make him work for his points.

The other main offensive threat on the Illinois roster is sophomore big man Meyers Leonard.  In many ways, he and Cody Zeller are similar in the sense that each team recognizes their talent but often struggles to get them the basketball.  Against Northwestern he finished 10-of-12 from the field, so the Hoosiers need to limit his touches inside and push him off the block.  They also need to keep him off the offensive glass, which is an area that plagued them early on in conference play.  On the defensive end, Leonard is a tremendous shot-blocker, and I am really looking forward to the matchup with Zeller.

Guard D.J. Richardson also averages in double figures, but he has scored more than nine points just twice in the last eight games.  He’s really struggled with his shot since sustaining a wrist injury early in Big Ten play.  Joseph Bertrand started to emerge near the end of the non-conference slate and has shown flashes as well.  Again, their is limited depth on the Illini roster, so these four players are likely to score most (if not all) of Illinois’ points.

The Illini defense ranks fourth in defensive efficiency in Big Ten play.  Thanks in part to Leonard’s shot-blocking prowess, opponents are shooting just 46.9 percent on two-pointers.  They also do a nice job of forcing turnovers, but they rank in the middle of the pack in defensive rebounding percentage, opponents’ free throw rate, and three-point defense.  Opponents are also shooting a league worst 66.7 percent from the line, so some luck has also played a factor in their solid defensive numbers.  Three of their last four opponents have scored at least 1.02 points per possession, with the 1.25 ppp allowed against Northwestern establishing a new season high.

Indiana

The Hoosiers should come into the game with plenty of confidence after a 17-point win at Purdue on Saturday.  Victor Oladipo played the best game of his career and scored 23 points to go with eight rebounds, four assists, and two blocks.  He was relentlessly aggressive, which paid huge dividends on both ends of the floor.  Indiana also got a lift from Remy Abell, who came off the bench to score 13 points in just 19 minutes.  Cody Zeller attempted 11 of IU’s 35 free throws in the game and finished with 16 points and eight boards.

Against the Boilers, the team showed more toughness than they have in recent weeks and put together a complete performance.  They will need to carry that over to Thursday night’s game and jump on the Illini early.  If the Hoosiers can get Illinois in foul trouble, get out to an early lead, or both, Illinois’ offensive struggles and lack of depth will be magnified.

The Hoosiers are likely to play without Verdell Jones once again, but Oladipo did a nice job of handling the ball more and allowing Jordan Hulls to spend time playing off the ball.  Limiting turnovers will be important for IU, because they don’t want to give a team that struggles offensively any easy baskets off of miscues.  Otherwise, the Hoosiers match up pretty well with Illinois, particularly if they stay aggressive by attacking the offensive glass and getting the ball inside.

Indiana has gotten great play from the bench in recent games, and their depth is a real advantage in this one.  It’s unclear whether Crean will stick with Derek Elston in the starting lineup given Illinois’ relative lack of size, but no matter what, he will have multiple contributors available off the bench like Will Sheehey and the aforementioned Abell.

Final Thought

The Hoosiers finally got a key road win in Big Ten play against Purdue, and it will be important for them to remember how they earned that victory.  If they come out with the same intensity and toughness from the opening tip, this is a game IU should win at home.

On the defensive end, they need to limit Leonard’s touches inside and force Paul into contested jumpers.  Offensively, the Hoosiers have to continue to attack off the dribble or through Zeller in the post, both of which give them a chance to get Leonard in foul trouble or kick the ball out to open shooters.  Look for IU’s depth and what should be a raucous home crowd to be the difference in this one.

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Listen to Andy Thursday on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

Just in case this isn’t enough to tide you over until March Madness 2012, you can always check out my latest power rankings and bracket projections.

ACC

Miami (14-7)

Sunday’s overtime win at Duke moved the Hurricanes into the RPI Top 40 and gave them a signature win.  Four of their seven losses came without the services of big man Reggie Johnson and DeQuan Jones, so the committee will (or at least should) take that into account.  As it stands, Miami is 1-4 against the Top 50 and 3-7 versus the Top 100, but they don’t really have a bad loss.  Losing at home to bubble neighbor N.C. State might come back to haunt them, but Saturday’s trip to Florida State gives the Canes the chance to pick up another resume-building win.

North Carolina State (17-7)

The aforementioned win over Miami is the best one on the Wolfpack’s profile.  They rank 54th in the RPI and are 1-5 against the Top 50 and just 8-7 versus the Top 150.  Six of their wins are over sub-200 teams, and a home loss to Georgia Tech isn’t doing them any favors.  They get a chance at revenge against the Yellow Jackets this week prior to a critical set of games at Duke and home against Florida State and North Carolina.  If they get swept there, you can pretty much write off the Wolfpack.

Atlantic 10

Dayton (14-9)

The Flyers have now lost four straight heading into two “can’t lose” games against Fordham and Charlotte.  The good news is they have four wins against the Top 50 and seven versus the Top 100, but they also have a pair of sub-200 losses to drag them down.  Dayton’s RPI is in free-fall at 71, and at this point they may need to go 6-1 in their last seven games with the lone loss coming against Xavier or UMass.

La Salle (17-7)

La Salle is just in front of Dayton in the RPI, but in many ways, their profile isn’t as strong.  They have no Top 50 wins and are 4-5 against the Top 100.  Losses to Robert Morris and Delaware will be hard to overcome, and since nearly half of their wins have come against sub-200 teams, schedule strength certainly doesn’t work in their favor.  Following a road trip to Richmond, the Explorers take on Saint Louis, UMass, and Temple during their make-or-break stretch.

Massachusetts (17-6)

The Minutemen are another of the nine A-10 teams in the RPI Top 100, checking in at number 68.  They have wins over Saint Louis, Saint Joe’s, and Davidson, but they have an brutal loss to Rhode Island as well as losses to fellow bubble teams Miami and La Salle to go with an ugly non-conference strength of schedule.  UMass has just five wins against the Top 150, with eight of their wins coming against sub-200 squads.  Their next six games are against Top 100 teams though, so they have a huge opportunity to improve their profile in the coming weeks.

Saint Joseph’s (15-9)

I was ready to write off the Hawks when they lost at Penn to fall to 12-8, but they have responded by winning three of four.  They are 44th in the RPI and 6-6 against the Top 100 with their best victories against Creighton, Drexel, La Salle, and Dayton.  However, they also have losses against American and Charlotte, which leave them limited margin for error.  Remaining games against Saint Louis, UMass, and Temple are all at home, and if the Hawks can go 2-1 in those contests without suffering a bad loss, their case becomes more compelling.

Saint Louis (18-5)

The Billikens are 0-2 against the Top 50, but they are currently 34th in the RPI thanks to seven wins against teams ranked 51-100.  Their only bad loss came at Loyola Marymount, and barring a complete collapse, I like their chances to get in.  A pair of challenging road games against Saint Joseph’s and La Salle are up next for Saint Louis, but the following three games are all winnable.

Xavier (15-8)

Just a couple months ago, I never would have guessed we’d be discussing Xavier as a bubble team, but they are now 7-8 since the brawl against Cincinnati.  Their best win during that stretch was against Saint Joe’s, and they blew a golden opportunity to win at Memphis on Saturday when they blew a late lead.  They have now dropped out of the RPI Top 50, and while wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, and Cincinnati are nice, they seem like distant memories.  The Musketeers have four games against other top A-10 teams, three of which are on the road.  If they can go 5-2 in their last seven games, that should solidify their bid.

Big 12

Iowa State (17-7)

Following home wins against Kansas and K-State and a road victory at Oklahoma, the Cyclones’ seed was on the rise.  However, they lost by two at Oklahoma State on Monday night to drop to 7-4 in the league.  Even so, they are inside the Top 50 of the RPI and have a pair of Top 50 wins.  Unfortunately they didn’t do much in the non-conference, and they still face Baylor twice along with road trips to Missouri and Kansas State.  If they lose all four of those and finish 10-8 in the league, they are probably still safe, but they certainly can’t afford any bad losses.

Kansas State (17-6)

The Wildcats have gone just 5-4 since beating Missouri by 16 in early January, which leaves them at 6-5 in the Big 12 with a pair of losses to Oklahoma.  The good news is they have three Top 50 wins and don’t have a bad loss, but their upcoming schedule is rough.  K-State’s next five games are at Texas, Kansas at home, at Baylor, at Missouri, and home versus Iowa State.  It’s not inconceivable for them to lose all five games, and even 1-4 might put them in jeopardy.

Texas (15-9)

Home wins over Temple and Iowa State are nice, but the Longhorns are 2-8 against the Top 100 with 10 of their wins coming at the expense of sub-150 teams.  They may need to go 6-1 down the stretch to make a case for a bid, and even that might not be enough.

Big East

Cincinnati (16-7)

UC’s RPI is just inside the Top 100 due to a poor strength of schedule and their early loss to Presbyterian, but this is definitely one of the best 37 at-large teams in the country.  They have a home victory over Notre Dame plus road wins at Connecticut, Georgetown, and Pitt.  Outside of two games against Marquette and a home game with Louisville, the remaining schedule is manageable.

Connecticut (15-8)

The Huskies are in a tailspin right now after getting crushed at Louisville on Monday.  They have lost five of their last six games and are 3-7 in their last 10 contests.  Saturday’s game at Syracuse could get ugly if the Huskies come with the same effort as they did against Louisville, and they still have home games against Marquette, Syracuse, and Pitt.  They are still 23rd in the RPI with eight Top 100 wins and the top-rated schedule, but I’m not sure an 8-10 Big East record would be enough for them to get in based on their recent play.

Notre Dame (15-8)

If you based this solely on league games, the Irish would be a lock, but they went just 8-5 in non-conference play with their best win against Detroit.  Still, Notre Dame has five Top 50 wins at this point, which is substantially more than most bubble teams can claim.  Outside of a home-and-home against West Virginia and a road trip to Georgetown, the schedule isn’t that bad, and a 13-5 conference record is a distincy possibility.

Pittsburgh (15-9)

After losing eight straight and starting 0-7 in the Big East, the Panthers have bounced back to win four straight.  The fact that point guard Tray Woodall missed a number of those losses works in Pitt’s favor, but they have to keep winning.  If they can hold serve at home and split their final four road games, they would be 9-9 in the league.  Win another game or two in the conference tournament and the Panthers may end up dancing after all.

Seton Hall (15-8)

I had the Pirates as one of my last four in, but they are in serious trouble after losing six in a row.  They still rank 33rd in the RPI with three Top 50 wins and no losses to teams outside of the Top 100, but those numbers mean less with each subsequent defeat.  Seton Hall needs to go 5-2 over the last seven games to finish at .500 in the league, but even though the schedule isn’t awful, that seems overly optimistic given how they are playing right now.

Big Ten

Illinois (16-7)

It probably seems odd to call the Illini a bubble team in light of their wins over Ohio State and Michigan State, but hear me out.  They are 5-5 in the league with road games left at Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin to go with home dates versus Purdue and Michigan.  The fact that Illinois owns five wins over teams in the Top 50 definitely helps, but I’m not sure this team can afford to finish under .500 in league play.

Minnesota (17-7)

The Gophers have responded well after a 0-4 start in the Big Ten, and they have five of their final seven games at home.  However, they play Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Indiana in four of those contests and also play at Northwestern and Wisconsin.  Minnesota is ranked 49th in the RPI, and they have three Top 50 wins as well as a winning record against the Top 100, which many teams can’t claim.  That said, they can’t afford to go 2-5 in their last seven games, which is not outside the realm of possibility.

Northwestern (14-8)

Northwestern ranks 36th in the RPI, boasts a high strength of schedule, and owns three Top 50 wins, but most projections don’t have them in the field.  That’s likely because they are 4-8 versus the Top 100 and lost to Baylor, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota by a combined 104 points.  The schedule isn’t awful with three games left against Iowa and Penn State as well as opportunities at home against Minnesota, Michigan, and Ohio State, any of which would help their cause.

Purdue (15-9)

The Boilers played tough against Ohio State, but they have now lost four of their last five games with no schedule relief in sight.  Home games remain against Northwestern and Michigan State, and they also travel to Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana.  As is the case with the other three Big Ten bubble teams, a .500 conference record is critical.  Purdue’s five Top 50 wins definitely give them a leg up on other bubble teams.

Pac-12

Arizona (16-8)

After a pair of solid road wins at Cal and Stanford, the Wildcats are making a push to get back in the race.  They are now 7-4 in the league with their last three losses coming by a total of five points.  Arizona has just one Top 50 win and is just 8-8 versus the Top 150.  That said, if the Wildcats can win at Washington, they might wind up 14-4 in the league, but as with most of these teams, the margin for error is negligible.

California (18-6)

At 48, Cal is the lone Pac-12 squad in the Top 50, but they have no Top 50 wins.  They do have six wins against teams ranked 51-100, but eight of their victories have come against sub-200 clubs.  Cal’s two toughest remaining matchups are probably their final two games on the road against Colorado and Stanford, but they have no chances at a true resume-enhancing victory from here on out.

Colorado (16-7)

The Buffs are just 72nd in the RPI, but they do have wins over Arizona and Washington.  However, they did nothing in the non-conference and have losses to a number of fellow bubble teams, including Colorado State, Wyoming, Cal, and Stanford.  Colorado is just 3-6 against the Top 100 and only 5-7 against the Top 150.  They probably need to run the table to have a legitimate shot.

Stanford (16-7)

I’m honestly not sure why this team seems to be receiving so much consideration for a bid.  They are 3-5 against the Top 100 with half of their wins coming versus sub-200 teams.  The Cardinal have lost four of their last five contests after a 5-1 start in the league, and losses to Butler and Washington State won’t do them any favors.  Not unlike Colorado, Stanford probably needs to win out in the regular season to make a more compelling case for a bid.

Washington (16-7)

The Huskies are now 8-1 in their last nine games and are alone in first place in the Pac-12 at 9-2.  The talent is definitely there, but the quality wins really aren’t.  Washington is 0-4 against the Top 50, but they have no losses to teams outside of the Top 100, which definitely helps.  They play just two of their final seven games at home, but if they can run the table to go 16-2 in the league, I can’t see them getting left out.

SEC

Alabama (16-7)

The computer numbers are solid, but the fact remains that this team’s best wins came in mid-November.  Still, the Tide are 7-6 against the Top 100 with their lone bad loss coming at South Carolina.  Going 3-1 (or maybe even 2-2) in remaining games against Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Mississippi while winning their other games should definitely be enough.

Arkansas (16-7)

The Hogs still have no road or neutral wins, but they do have three Top 50 wins against Michigan, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. They need to find a way to beat someone on the road while at least splitting games against Florida, Alabama, Mississippi State, and Mississippi.  Nine of their wins have come against sub-150 teams, and there isn’t much on their profile outside of the three wins mentioned above.

Mississippi (14-8)

Even after going 5-7 in their last 12 games, the Rebels are still 51st in the RPI.  Their non-conference win over Miami looks better now, but they are just 7-8 against the Top 150.  They missed a chance at another solid win when they lost in double overtime to Alabama over the weekend.  The remaining schedule is tough with road trips to Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Arkansas as well as home games versus Vandy and Alabama.  The chances to improve their profile are there, but I’m not sure the Rebels will be able to take advantage.

Mountain West

Colorado State (15-7)

CSU’s win over San Diego State a couple weeks ago was definitely impressive, but it’s their lone Top 50 win.  However, they don’t have any sub-100 losses, which is a huge factor in their number 31 ranking in the RPI.  The quality of their wins is an issue, and they are just 3-7 against the Top 100.  They need to take care of business on the road against the lesser teams in the MWC and probably split a four-game stretch featuring home games with Wyoming, New Mexico, and UNLV and a road trip to San Diego State.

New Mexico (19-4)

The quantity of wins for the Lobos is there, but quality is another matter.  Nine of their wins have come against sub-200 (or non-Division One) or teams with their best victories coming at home against Saint Louis and Colorado State.  A loss to Santa Clara in the 76 Classic opener is the biggest blemish on their profile, but they need to find a way to beat either UNLV or SDSU during the back half of the MWC schedule.

Wyoming (18-5)

The only thing keeping the Cowboys on the bubble right now is last Saturday’s win over UNLV.  Just three of their 18 wins have come against teams in the RPI Top 50, and they have losses to Green Bay and TCU to drag them down.  With all of their tough games between now and the end of the season taking place on the road, the Cowboys will definitely have earned a bid if they get one.

Other

BYU (20-6)

Last week’s home win over Gonzaga kept the Cougars alive, but that is their only Top 50 win at this point.  They are 5-0 against teams ranked between 51 and 100, but they also have losses to Utah State and Loyola Marymount to hurt their overall profile.  Their only game left against a tournament-caliber team comes when they travel to Gonzaga, but they can’t afford to lose any of their other remaining WCC contests.  If they fall to the Zags, they will likely need to beat either Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s in the conference tournament.

Central Florida (17-6)

The Knights have wins over Memphis and UConn, but other than that, there isn’t much meat on their resume.  Overall they are just 8-6 against the Top 200, including a brutal loss to Louisiana-Lafayette.  UCF probably needs to run the table or at least go 6-1 over their final seven games, which would include wins over some combination of Marshall, Memphis, and Southern Miss.

Davidson (18-5)

Davidson certainly had a more compelling case when they were undefeated in the SoCon, but a loss to Samford changed all that.  The “neutral” court win over Kansas is obviously huge, but they have no other Top 100 wins and are just 4-4 versus the Top 150.  Twelve of their victories have come against sub-200 or non-Division One teams, which makes their BracketBusters matchup against Wichita State an absolute must-win.  Even so, the Wildcats probably need to win the SoCon Tournament to get in.

Harvard (20-2)

If not for the loss at Fordham, the Crimson would be a virtual lock to make the tournament, but as it stands, they should still feel relatively comfortable.  The rank 40th in the RPI with a pair of Top 50 wins and just one bad loss.  The fact that Princeton, Yale, and Penn all rank just outside the Top 100 helps their strength of schedule, which should get better following this weekend’s road games against Penn and Princeton.

Iona (19-5)

Losses to Hofstra, Manhattan, and Siena have probably killed the Gaels’ at-large hopes, and a BracketBusters game against Nevada won’t move the dial much in that direction either.  They have zero Top 40 wins, and while they are 4-2 against the Top 100, two sub-200 losses pretty much offset that.  Iona has a big game coming up on Friday against Loyola (MD), who is tied with them atop the MAAC.

Long Beach State (17-6)

Much was made of the 49ers’ brutal early schedule, and it has helped propel them to 35th in the RPI.  Five of their six losses have come against Top 50 teams, and their win at Pitt is starting to look good once again.  They have also beaten Xavier and are currently undefeated in the Big West.  LBSU has a great opportunity at Creighton in the BracketBusters, but I don’t think a loss there should remove them from at-large consideration either.

Memphis (16-7)

After beating Xavier over the weekend, the Tigers are now 20th in the RPI with five Top 100 wins and no bad losses.  Their next five games are winnable, and they finish at Marshall, home versus UCF, and at Tulsa.  A 7-1 record down the stretch would put them at 13-3 in C-USA, which should be enough to get in.  The conference tournament is also in Memphis this year, so that should pay dividends in the event those become must-wins.

Middle Tennessee State (21-4)

Saturday’s 15-point loss at Denver certainly doesn’t help, but the Blue Raiders are still inside the RPI Top 50.  Unfortunately, they have no Top 50 wins and no other chances to get one over the remainder of the year, but they do have three Top 100 victories to their credit.  They proved that they are a tournament-caliber team in a close loss at Vanderbilt, but MTSU probably still needs to win out and at least reach the finals of the Sun Belt Tournament.

Oral Roberts (21-5)

ORU is currently 41st in the RPI with three Top 100 wins but none versus the Top 50.  An early loss against UT-San Antonio is by far their worst defeat, and 12 of their 21 wins have come at the expense of sub-200 teams.  They should win their four remaining league games, and a win at Akron in the BracketBusters would help a little but not a lot.  No matter what their computer numbers look like, they still probably need to win the Summit League to get in.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

This week’s topics include:

• Whether Duke is all that good
• Whether UConn might play their way out of the tournament
• Whether Baylor will beat either Kansas or Missouri this week
• Whether Alabama might miss the tournament
• Which of the four Big Ten bubble teams should be most concerned
• Whether the Pac-12 could get three bids,
• Whether Xavier can right the ship.

They also look ahead to a number of big games on Saturday.

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Usually it’s Sullinger you see on the highlight reels thundering over some helpless defender, but not this time.

Check out the video below:

Keep your head up, Jared.  Everyone gets dunked on at some point.  Plus, look on the bright side: you’re going to be a very, very rich man in a few months.

As for the game, Purdue, behind D.J. Bird’s 5 three pointers, is hanging tough in Columbus.  The score is 40-40 at halftime.

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Follow me on Twitter @keithmullett

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With the exception of the last couple spots, this week’s at-large field was relatively easy to select.  That isn’t to say that all the teams are particularly impressive, and I don’t think for a minute that there won’t be plenty of changes in the field between now and the end of the season.

Below are my latest projections through Monday’s games. As usual, underneath the bracket I will give my last four in and last four out, as well as the rationale I used to make those decisions.

Last Four In:

Cincinnati

The Bearcats were in this position a week ago, and they took care of business at home against DePaul.  They have worked their way into the RPI Top 100, and they still have road wins at Connecticut, Georgetown, and Pittsburgh, which looks much better now than it did a few weeks ago.  A home victory against Notre Dame is looking better as well, but the margin for error is slim with road games against St. John’s and Marquette this week.

Colorado State

After working their way into the field last week, the Rams lost by 19 at UNLV but bounced back to beat Air Force at home.  Right now, the computer numbers are almost too good to leave them out, but they have just one Top 50 win and are just 3-7 against the Top 100.  Their only game this week is a road trip to TCU, who took them to double overtime at home.

Miami (FL)

I gave the Canes the nod over North Carolina State based on the fact that Miami picked up a signature win against Duke on Sunday, which is something the Wolfpack simply doesn’t have.  None of Miami’s losses are terrible, and four of them came without Reggie Johnson and DeQuan Jones.  This week they host Virginia Tech and head to Florida State for a chance at another marquee win.

Seton Hall

The Pirates have now lost six straight, and the only things keeping them in right now are the fact that they have three Top 50 wins, a relatively solid RPI, and a high strength of schedule.  Even so, they can’t afford to lose at Rutgers this week, and even a home loss against Pitt might land Seton Hall on the other side of the bubble.

First Four Out:

Arizona

I still can’t bring myself to put three Pac-12 teams in the field, but a road sweep of Cal and Stanford definitely helps Arizona’s case.  As it stands, they are 4-7 against the Top 100, so they may need to win out to earn a spot in the field.  The Wildcats host league newcomers Colorado and Utah this week, as they look to move to 9-4 in the conference.

Arkansas

The Hogs looked great in a home win over Vanderbilt early last week, but their road woes were on display once again in a loss at LSU.  Arkansas still has no victories away from Fayetteville, but they have a solid chance this week when they travel to Georgia.  Even though the Bulldogs are struggling, that would at least prove the Razorbacks can win away from home, which coupled with their three Top 50 wins, give them a compelling profile.

North Carolina State

Thanks to Miami’s win over Duke, the Hurricanes moved into the RPI Top 50, which in turn gave N.C. State a Top 50 win thanks to their victory over the Canes in late January.  Still, their only other win against a team I have in the field came against UNC-Asheville in the season opener.  They head to Georgia Tech this week before a crucial stretch that features games against Duke, Florida State, and North Carolina.

Northwestern

As I mentioned a few weeks back, I don’t see the Big Ten getting nine teams, but Northwestern’s road win at Illinois was their third against the Top 50.  They also boast a high strength of schedule, and they don’t have any truly bad losses.  The issue is that they’ve been crushed by many of the better teams they have played and lost a couple winnable home games.  The Wildcats host Iowa on Thursday before traveling to Purdue this weekend.

Here is how the bids broke out by conference:

Big East (9): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Syracuse, West Virginia

Big Ten (8): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

ACC (5): Duke, Florida State, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Virginia

Big 12 (5): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri

SEC (5): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Mountain West (4): Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Atlantic 10 (3): Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier

West Coast (3): BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

Conference USA (2): Memphis, Southern Mississippi

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

Pac-12 (2): California, Washington

America East: Stony Brook

Atlantic Sun: Belmont

Big Sky: Weber State

Big South: UNC-Asheville

Big West: Long Beach State

Colonial: VCU

Horizon: Cleveland State

Ivy: Harvard

MAAC: Iona

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Northeast: Long Island

Ohio Valley: Murray State

Patriot: Bucknell

Southern: Davidson

Southland: Texas-Arlington

Summit: Oral Roberts

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State

SWAC: Mississippi Valley State

WAC: Nevada

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

A terrific Kansas-Missouri game on Saturday night provided a springboard into “Rivalry Week,” which features a number of intriguing matchups.

Before that tips off though, here are this week’s power rankings.

College Basketball Power Rankings

1. Kentucky (23-1, Previous Ranking: 1)

Freshman sensation Anthony Davis had a phenomenal week with 40 points (on 15-of-17 shooting from the field), 16 rebounds, and 15 blocks in wins over Tennessee and South Carolina, as the Wildcats won by a combined 59 points.

Kentucky’s schedule finally starts to get challenging this week as they host Florida on Tuesday and head to Vanderbilt on Saturday.

2. Ohio State (20-3, Previous Ranking: 2)

The Buckeyes got just seven points from players not named Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas, or William Buford against Wisconsin, but that trio combined for 51 points and led OSU to a terrific road win at the Kohl Center.  Sullinger scored 24 points and grabbed 10 boards, including five on the offensive glass, to pace the Buckeyes, who are now alone in first place in the Big Ten.

They welcome Purdue and second-place Michigan State to Columbus this week.

3. Syracuse (23-1, Previous Ranking: 3)

So maybe Fab Melo was more important to this team than everyone realized.  After a loss and two other close games, Melo returned from his academic issues to score 14 points in a 25-point route of St. John’s.

The Orange face Georgetown and UConn at home this week, and the matchup with the Hoyas will be their first game against a ranked team in over a month.

4. Missouri (21-2, Previous Ranking: 6)

With the Tigers down eight points with just over two minutes left against Kansas, senior guard Marcus Denmon put the team on his back.  He scored nine of his 29 points during an 11-0 run to finish the game, which gave Mizzou the three-point victory.  Earlier in the week, Michael Dixon hit the game-winner with 30 seconds left to win at Texas.

The Tigers are now in a three-way tie for first place in the Big 12, and Monday they head to Oklahoma before a home date with Baylor next Saturday.

5. North Carolina (20-3, Previous Ranking: 4)

The Heels picked up a pair of road wins this week, although they trailed for a while against Maryland.  Tyler Zeller continued his solid play with 40 points and 25 rebounds in the two victories, while Kendall Marshall dished out 16 assists against the Terps.

UNC has a pair of huge home games this week with arch rival Duke visiting the Dean Dome on Wednesday and Virginia coming to town on Saturday.

6. Baylor (21-2, Previous Ranking: 7)

It wasn’t always pretty, but the Bears picked up road wins over Texas A&M and Oklahoma State by a total of just seven points.  Perry Jones III had 31 points and 16 rebounds during the week, while Pierre Jackson tallied 30 points.

This week Baylor gets a chance to avenge both of their losses when they host Kansas on Wednesday before traveling to Missouri on Saturday.

7. Kansas (18-5, Previous Ranking: 5)

The Jayhawks were mere minutes away from picking up a huge road win against Missouri, and many will cite a pair of questionable charging calls down the stretch as one of the reasons their lead slipped away.  Thomas Robinson was phenomenal in the second half and finished with 25 points and 13 rebounds against the Tigers after posting 20 points and 17 boards earlier in the week against Oklahoma.

Kansas heads to Baylor on Wednesday before a winnable home game against Oklahoma State next weekend.

8. Michigan State (18-5, Previous Ranking: 9)

Sparty lost an ugly game against Illinois early in the week, and they also feared they had lost Draymond Green who suffered a knee injury in the second half.  Green returned Sunday against Michigan and posted 14 points, 16 boards, and four assists in a 10-point victory.

Michigan State is a game behind Ohio State in the Big Ten race, but they get their first shot at the Buckeyes in Columbus next weekend after they host Penn State on Wednesday.

9. Georgetown (18-4, Previous Ranking: 12)

The Hoyas won home games against Connecticut and South Florida by a combined 44 points to get back on track.  Henry Sims scored 13 points in each game and had a strong all-around game against USF with nine rebounds and five assists.

Georgetown hits the road for three of their next four games, starting in Syracuse on Wednesday.

10. Florida (19-4, Previous Ranking: 17)

Saturday’s home win over Vanderbilt was Florida’s seventh straight victory, and the Gators are finally looking like the team many people ranked in the Top 10 before the season.  Freshman Brad Beal continued his solid play with 33 points, 18 rebounds, and one massive dunk over the course of the week.

Tuesday’s road trip to Rupp Arena will be Florida’s biggest test of the season, while Saturday gives them a chance for revenge against Tennessee.

11. Duke (19-4, Previous Ranking: 8)

The Blue Devils won at Virginia Tech early in the week behind 18 points from Austin Rivers, but they were outplayed at home by Miami on Sunday when they lost in overtime after coming back from a large second half deficit.

Getting back on track won’t be easy with their next game coming on Wednesday at North Carolina.  Duke follows up that rivalry game by hosting Maryland next weekend.

12. Murray State (23-0, Previous Ranking: 14)

Isaiah Canaan went off for six threes and 32 points in a comeback win over Southeast Missouri State, and the Racers followed that up with a seven-point victory against Tennessee-Martin.

Home games against Austin Peay and Tennessee State await this week, but the big one for Murray State comes on February 18th when Saint Mary’s comes to town as part of the BracketBusters.

13. Creighton (21-3, Previous Ranking: 11)

The Bluejays saw their 11-game win streak snapped when Northern Iowa’s Anthony James hit a three-pointer at the buzzer to win it for the Panthers. Earlier in the week, Creighton hung 102 points on Illinois State behind 25 from Player of the Year candidate Doug McDermott.

They head to Evansville on Tuesday before hosting MVC co-leader Wichita State on Saturday, which should be an outstanding matchup.

14. San Diego State (20-3, Previous Ranking: 16)

Wins over Boise State and TCU have the Aztecs at 6-1 through the first half of the Mountain West season.  Guard Jamaal Franklin led the way in both games with a total of 40 points and 19 rebounds during the week.

San Diego State’s only game this week comes Saturday at UNLV with first place in the MWC on the line.

15. UNLV (21-4, Previous Ranking: 10)

The Rebels made just 3-of-14 from beyond the arc in Saturday’s loss at Wyoming, but they blew out Colorado State by 19 points earlier in the week.  Chace Stanback has been up and down of late, and that continued this week with 16 points against the Rams but just two versus the Cowboys.

Like SDSU, the Rebels have the week off before they welcome the Aztecs in a revenge game for first place in the league.

16. Florida State (16-6, Previous Ranking: 18)

Things keep on rolling for the Noles, who knocked off Georgia Tech and Virginia at home this week.  They have now won seven straight games and are tied atop the ACC with North Carolina.  Michael Snaer continued his strong play with five three-pointers and 21 points against the Jackets, while the team relied on a more balanced attack versus UVA.

This week, the Noles head to Boston College before hosting an improving Miami squad next weekend.

17. Michigan (17-7, Previous Ranking: 15)

The Wolverines have now alternated wins and losses over their last eight games after beating Indiana at home during the week before falling at Michigan State on Sunday.  Tim Hardaway Jr. went just 5-of-25 during the week, while senior Zack Novak stepped up with 27 points and six threes.

Michigan heads to Nebraska this week before welcoming Illinois to Ann Arbor on Sunday.

18. Marquette (19-5, Previous Ranking: 13)

Marquette ran into a buzzsaw when they lost to Notre Dame on Saturday, which snapped their seven-game winning streak.  It was an up and down week for Jae Crowder, who had 20 points and 12 boards against Seton Hall but managed just four against the Irish.

The Golden Eagles travel to DePaul on Monday for a winnable road game, and then Cincinnati comes to Milwaukee next weekend.

19. Wisconsin (18-6, Previous Ranking: 19)

After winning at Penn State and losing at home to Ohio State, there’s no change for the Badgers this week.  Wisconsin’s struggles from long range crept up again versus OSU, as they hit just 5-of-27 from deep.

With their six-game win streak snapped, the Badgers hit the road for four of their next five games, starting with this week’s trip to Minnesota.

20. Saint Mary’s (22-2, Previous Ranking: 22)

The Gaels extended their winning streak to 12 games by beating San Diego, but their biggest headline came when they were announced as Murray State’s opponent in the BracketBusters.  Rob Jones went off for 28 points against the Toreros, and Stephen Holt chipped in with 23 of his own.

Saint Mary’s has a challenging road date with Gonzaga on Thursday as part of Rivalry Week, which gives us yet another “mid-major” game to look forward to this week.

21. Mississippi State (18-5, Previous Ranking: 23)

In their only game of the week, the Bulldogs won by just three against Auburn.  Forwards Arnett Moultrie and Renardo Sidney led the way with a combined 38 points, while Dee Bost and Brian Bryant combined for 16 assists.

MSU needs to take care of business at home this week against Mississippi and Georgia before playing four of their final six games on the road.

22. Indiana (18-6, Previous Ranking: 20)

The Hoosiers dug themselves a 20-point hole early against Michigan as their road woes continued, but they bounced back to win by 17 points at Mackey Arena against arch rival Purdue.  Victor Oladipo and Remy Abell keyed the victory against the Boilers thanks to their aggressiveness, and they will look to build on those performances against Illinois this week.

IU plays five of their final seven games at home to close out the regular season.

23. Virginia (18-4, Previous Ranking: 21)

A late rally against Florida State came up just short on Saturday, but Mike Scott had another fantastic week for the Cavaliers.  He had a pair of double-doubles and finished with 39 points and 21 boards while hitting 14-of-19 from the field.  Still, Virginia has just one Top 50 win and that came back in November.

After hosting Wake on Wednesday, the Cavs will get a chance to pick up another one when they travel to North Carolina next weekend.

24. Notre Dame (15-8, Previous Ranking: N/A)

I’m not sure if there is a hotter team in the country right how, as the Irish have ripped off four straight wins, three of which have come against ranked opponents and all of which have come against tournament teams.

Without Tim Abromaitis, the Irish have been getting contributions from a number of different players.  Eric Atkins combined for 31 points in last week’s wins, while Pat Connaughton came through with 23 points and 11 boards versus Marquette on Sunday.

Notre Dame heads to West Virginia in search of their fourth Big East road win before hosting DePaul on Saturday.

25. Southern Mississippi (20-3, Previous Ranking: N/A)

The Golden Eagles are overrated as a Top 10 team in the RPI, but this is a solid basketball teamwithout a doubt.  They beat Memphis at home this week to break a lengthy losing streak against the Tigers and take sole possession of first place in Conference USA.  Kentucky transfer Darnell Dodson is playing really well right now, and Larry Eustachy has seven players averaging at least 7.0 points.

This week USM has a road trip to UAB followed by a home date against a solid Central Florida team.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

As always, Jerod, Ryan, and Andy will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Purdue Gameday Info

• Date: Saturday, February 4th
• Time: 7:00 ET, 6:00 CT
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: Dave Revsine and Jimmy Jackson
• Point Spread: Purdue by 4.5
• Over-Under: 144
• KenPom Prediction: Indiana 73-72 with a 53% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Purdue
• IU-Penn State live tweet coverage: @AssemblyCall
• Assembly Call IU Postgame Show: http://assemblycall.com/live

IU-Purdue Preview

Purdue

The Boilers come in losers of four of their last seven games, including a pair of home losses, but they have been idle since last Saturday when they picked up a nice road win at Northwestern.  Robbie Hummel hit the game winner and tallied 11 points, while Terone Johnson came up big with 14 points for Purdue.

Without E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, this Purdue team has a significantly different look than in years past on a number of fronts.  Offensively, the team has very limited production in the post and relies heavily on Robbie Hummel and Lewis Jackson.  Hummel leads the team with 15.2 points and 6.0 rebounds per game, but he’s hitting just 39.5 percent from the field.  He can step out and knock down three-pointers but has struggled from long range in conference play.

Jackson is the kind of quick point guard that has given Indiana trouble off the dribble.  He has battled back injuries of late, but he comes in averaging 10.2 points and a team-high 3.9 assists.  IU needs to keep him out of the lane where he can be dangerous at either finishing or kicking it out to open teammates.

Ryne Smith is the team’s designated sharpshooter and is hitting 41.8 percent from beyond the arc this season.  The Hoosiers allowed a number of Michigan players to get open looks from three-point range, and they cannot afford to lose track of Smith.  The aforementioned Terone Johnson has shown flashes this season, while veteran D.J. Byrd has been a solid contributor off the bench.

The Boilers have struggled with their shooting in conference play, hitting 33.9 percent of their three-pointers, 47.6 percent of their two-pointers, and a league-worst 64.3 percent from the line.  They rank eighth in free throw rate in league play and 10th in offensive rebounding percentage, but they do boast the lowest turnover rate in the nation.  As a result, the Hoosiers can’t afford to gamble on defense and get themselves out of position.  They also need to do a better job of stopping dribble penetration and not allowing uncontested layups, as they did on multiple occasions against the Wolverines.

As has not been customary in recent years, Purdue has struggled defensively this season.  They are in the middle of the pack for overall efficiency, but they rank 11th in league play in effective field goal percentage defense.  They are dead last in three-point defense, which the Hoosiers should look to exploit with Jordan Hulls and Matt Roth outside.  The Boilers are eighth in defensive rebounding percentage and ninth in opponents’ free throw rate, so Indiana needs to remain aggressive at driving to the basket and crashing the glass.  Purdue does have a solid turnover rate, which is an area that has plagued the Hoosiers at times this year.

Indiana

Once again, the Hoosiers got off to a slow start on Wednesday night, falling in 13-0 hole against the Wolverines and trying to dig their way out over the remaining 35 minutes.  They got as close as two points but allowed a pair of clutch three-pointers and faltered down the stretch.  Tom Crean called his starting lineup “a joke” after the game, so it will be interesting to see if any changes are made.

One change that may be made for him is related to Verdell Jones, who hurt his shoulder late in the first half against Michigan and sat out the second half.  Jones is expected to be a game-time decision, but if he can’t go, it might free up more playing time for Matt Roth and freshman Remy Abell, who has played well in recent games.

As always, it will be important for Indiana to pound the ball inside to Cody Zeller given Purdue’s lack of quality big men.  Zeller posted his second career double-double against Michigan but certainly didn’t play one of his best games.  He seems to still be struggling with the physicality of Big Ten play but needs to be more aggressive in carving out position for himself and attacking the basket.  Given Purdue’s three-point defense, it would again be wise for the Hoosiers to play from the inside-out.

Jordan Hulls is coming off of a terrific game against Michigan.  He scored 18 points and dished out five assists, but more than that his leadership helped the team claw its way back into the game.  It will be important for him to carry over his hot shooting, as the Indiana native looks for his first win over the Boilers.

The Hoosiers also need a more consistent effort from Christian Watford.  He played poorly in the first half against the Wolverines and started the second half on the bench.  Watford responded to the benching with some inspired basketball on both ends of the floor, but he needs to bring that effort from the opening tip.  Otherwise, he may continue to cede playing time to Derek Elston, who has been a spark off the bench in recent games.

Will Sheehey also needs to respond following a rough night against Michigan that saw him go scoreless with three turnovers and two fouls in just 10 minutes of action.  He played well in his first start against Iowa, but it’s unclear whether he will retain a starting role for the third straight game.  Meanwhile, Victor Oladipo seems to have embraced his role off the bench, scoring 18 points and grabbing 12 boards over the last two games.

Final Thought

To some extent I feel like a broken record here in saying that IU needs to stop dribble penetration and feed the ball to Zeller inside.  They also have to bring a consistent defensive effort throughout the game, something they have struggled to do in recent games.

And while those things will be critical, how Indiana plays at the start of the game will be even more important.

The team has fallen behind early in virtually every game they have lost.  Michigan State jumped out to a nine point lead in the first 6:30, Ohio State was up 11 in roughly the same amount of time, Wisconsin led by five before the first TV timeout, and Michigan was up 13-0 early in Wednesday’s game.  For a team still learning to win on the road, they simply can’t afford to get that “here we go again” feeling.  More than that, a quick early start might help quiet what is sure to be an electric atmosphere at Mackey Arena.

Indiana needs to win this game to get back to .500 in conference play and prove they can win on the road.  Purdue needs this win to protect their home court before a number of tough games down the stretch and to help preserve their spot in the NCAA field.  If the Hoosiers want to come away with what would be their best road win of the season, it will be imperative that they get off to a good start, play solid position defense, and cut back on unforced turnovers.

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Listen to Andy Saturday on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

But hey, there’s nothing kids under the age of five like more than having to take eye drops every few hours, right?

So please join me in giving conjunctivitis a hearty “You suck!”

Alright, on to basketball…

Bottoms Line: Stock Up

AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

Iowa State

After losing at Texas early last week, the Cyclones responded with two critical home wins against Kansas and Kansas State.  Those are currently their only victories against the RPI Top 50, but if you think that isn’t enough to garner an at-large bid this season, you aren’t paying attention.

Royce White hit the game-winner against the Wildcats, capping another fantastic all-around game from the Minnesota transfer.  He is averaging 14.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks, all of which lead the Cyclones.  At 6-foot-8, 25o pounds, White brings the ball up the floor and runs the show for ISU, and he’s a matchup nightmare for opponents.

The Cyclones have road games at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State up next, but the final three games are brutal with road trips to K-State and Mizzou followed by a home game against Baylor.

Pittsburgh

Following an eight-game losing streak, the Panthers have now won three straight as they attempt to work their way back onto the bubble.  They are a completely different basketball team with a healthy Tray Woodall running the show.  He had 19 assists in the first two games of the winning streak, but he stepped up his scoring against West Virginia on Monday, scoring 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting.

More than that, his presence has allowed Ashton Gibbs to play more off the ball, which is where he excels.  Nasir Robinson has stepped up as well with 58 points and 23 boards over the last four games.  Still, Pitt has virtually no margin for error from here on out, but the good news is the schedule isn’t completely unmanageable.  They face Villanova at home Sunday before hitting the road for South Florida and reeling Seton Hall.

Southern Mississippi

Wednesday’s win over Memphis snapped an 18-game losing streak against the Tigers and put Southern Miss in sole possession of first place in Conference USA.  The Golden Eagles are now 20-3 overall and have won 16 of their last 17 games.

Kentucky transfer Darnell Dodson has played well of late and gives the team its fourth double-digit scorer.  In all, seven of Larry Eustachy’s players average at least seven points or at least three rebounds.

Southern Miss currently ranks eighth in RPI, which is admittedly absurd, but they really don’t have a bad loss.  Their three defeats have come at Denver (who is better than many people realize), at Murray State in double overtime, and at Memphis.  The schedule is relatively favorable with their key upcoming games all coming at home, and it’s conceivable they could be 14-1 in the league heading into the season finale at Marshall.

Washington

Not unlike the Big East, there has been somewhat of a revolving door for second place in the Pac-12.  For now, the Huskies seem intent on staking their claim as the league’s second-best squad after winning four in a row and seven of the last eight contests.

Talent has never been a question mark for the Huskies, who boasts a slew of talented guard and wing players like Tony Wroten, Terrence Ross, and C.J. Wilcox.  They don’t have a dominant low-post player either, but very few teams in the Pac-12 do either.

Most recently, the Huskies fought back from a double-digit second half deficit to beat UCLA on Thursday.  They do play five of their last eight on the road, but Washington has shown the ability to look like a tournament team in spurts.  Their loss to South Dakota State isn’t as bad as it may sound (although the 19-point margin is), and the Huskies don’t really have much in the way of bad losses.

Bottoms Line: Stock Down

Connecticut

Much like Washington, talent has never been an issue for UConn, but this team is a mess right now and may soon become a full-blow dumpster fire.  After a putrid offensive performance against Georgetown, the Huskies have now lost four straight and six of their last eight.

It’s no secret that this team is in dire need of a leader, and Jim Calhoun changed up his starting lineup on Wednesday to shake things up.  Even though he didn’t start, Shabazz Napier still played 31 minutes, going 0-for-9 from the field.  Andre Drummond continues to show flashes inside, but he’s still been inconsistent.  Regardless of any individual performances, the effort just doesn’t seem to be there for this team.

The schedule certainly doesn’t do them any favors, which makes Saturday’s home game against Seton Hall absolutely critical before road trips to Louisville and Syracuse.

Dayton

The Atlantic 10 is a tough conference to figure out, as the top teams just keep beating each other up, which has allowed for very little separation at the top of the league.  That said, I was high on Dayton after they beat Xavier by 15 points to jump out to a 4-1 start in the league.  Since then, they have lost all three of their games, two of which came at home against teams with no shot of making the tournament.  Now they play five of their final eight games on the road, starting with a Saturday trip to Saint Louis.

Dayton’s defense has really struggled in recent weeks, allowing their last seven opponents to score at least 1.03 points per possession.  Five of those seven have scored at least 1.18 ppp.  The start of that stretch corresponds to the loss of big man Josh Benson to a knee injury, and while the team has some offensive weapons, they will struggle to break their losing streak without improvement defensively.

Kansas State

On the heels of their 16-point win over Missouri, the Wildcats looked like they might make some noise in the Big 12 this season.  However, they have since dropped four of their last seven.  And while I think they can get a pass on losing to Baylor at home and even on the road at Iowa State, I’m not so sure about getting swept by Oklahoma.  Sure, the Sooners are better than expected, but those losses won’t do you any favors with the selection committee.

Their offensive efficiency is in the middle of the pack in conference play, with their solid offensive rebounding helping to offset their shooting struggles at the line and from beyond the arc.  The defensive numbers look decent overall, but they have allowed five of their nine conference foes to score at least 1.05 points per possession after doing so just once in their first 12 contests.  Quite simply, they don’t have the offensive firepower to just outscore people, so this lack of defense is a huge issue.

K-State still has road games at Texas, Baylor, and Missouri as well as home dates with Kansas and Iowa State, so finishing at 9-9 in the league may turn out to be a challenge.

Seton Hall

One of the season’s most pleasant surprises has now lost five straight games.  Outside of the Villanova game, the Pirates have continued to play well defensively and have limited the other four opponents to 0.97 or fewer points per possession.  The problem is they can’t score, in large part because their shooting has been horrific.  They have shot under 30 percent from the field twice during that stretch and have broken 40 percent just once.

The remaining schedule isn’t terrible by Big East standards, with five of their remaining eight games coming against the bottom six teams in the league.  Even so, if they can’t start shooting the ball better, I’m not sure it matters who they play.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

Among the topics discussed on this week’s episode:

• The rest of Rob and Troy’s road trip
• Potential tournament teams from the ACC
• Slumping Kansas State
• The resurgence of Pitt and Notre Dame as well as UConn’s continued struggles
• Wisconsin’s place in the Big Ten
• Washington and Arkansas’ chances at making the Big Dance.
• We also looked at the BracketBusters matchups that were released on Monday and looked ahead to the Kansas-Missouri game this weekend.

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The Pros and Cons of BracketBusters

The biggest game in this year’s lineup pits undefeated Murray State against a solid Saint Mary’s squad, while the undercard features matchups like Long Beach State-Creighton, Nevada-Iona, and Wichita State-Davidson, all of which I previewed earlier this week.

As a college basketball fan, I fully support giving some of these teams their share of the national spotlight.  It’s a great chance for people to see a slew of really talented teams they might not otherwise pay attention to, and it also gives them the opportunity to see players like Doug McDermott, Matthew Dellavedova, Isaiah Canaan, and Casper Ware.

Creighton's Doug McDermott

However, the reality is that there is typically very little upside for the teams participating in the event when you consider the fact that a loss will come back to haunt them during conversations about at-large bids.

Proponents of the event would be quick to point out that George Mason’s selection to the 2006 NCAA Tournament was aided by a BracketBusters win at Wichita State.  That’s certainly a fair point, but the argument can still be made that it has harmed more teams than it has helped.

I looked back at the last three years of the event and took the five best matchups for each season.  Here’s a rundown of the results and the ultimate post-season fate of each team:

2011 BracketBusters

Utah State 75, Saint Mary’s 65

The Aggies finished the regular season 30-3 after winning the WAC Tournament, but despite this win, a gaudy record, and the 15th-ranked RPI, they received just a 12 seed.  Saint Mary’s went on to lose to Gonzaga twice in their final five games and finished 25-8, which landed them a spot in the NIT.  Interestingly, they ranked slightly higher in the RPI than VCU, who received an at-large bid.

VCU 68, Wichita State 67

After winning this game, the Rams lost their next two contests.  They also lost in the CAA Tournament Final but wound up with an 11 seed in a play-in game.  The rest is history, and you could potentially argue this helped VCU get into the tournament since it gave them a quality road win.  The Shockers, who were 22-5 heading into the BracketBusters, finished 14-4 in the MVC and lost in the conference tournament semis.  However, they were left out of the Big Dance and wound up winning the NIT.

George Mason 77, Northern Iowa 71

The Patriots came into this game at 23-5 and finished 16-2 in the CAA before losing to VCU in the conference semis.  They earned an eight seed, which would indicate they were comfortably in the tournament regardless of the outcome here.  The Panthers were already reeling after having lost Lucas O’Rear to injury, and they went on to lose three straight following this defeat before landing in the CBI.

Old Dominion 74, Cleveland State 63

ODU wound up winning the CAA Tournament and received the automatic bid, eventually losing to Butler as a nine seed in the first round.  The Monarchs finished the regular season at 27-6 (14-4 in league play), and again their seed (and 20^th-ranked RPI) would indicate they were safely in the field.  The Vikings lost two of their final five regular season games, including a third loss to Butler in the Horizon semis.  They accepted a bid to the NIT, where they lost in the second round.

Valparaiso 80, Missouri State 67

This was a fairly surprising result as Valpo was just 19-8 entering the game.  The Crusaders lost their next two games and would up in the CIT. Missouri State was 21-6 heading into the game and finished alone atop the MVC at 15-3.  But after falling to Indiana State in the tournament final, they were left to play in the NIT.  Presumably this loss pushed them over the edge, because their RPI was better than both Saint Mary’s and VCU.

2010 BracketBusters

Northern Iowa 71, Old Dominion 62

The Panthers went on to finish 28-4 overall and 15-3 in the MVC.  A conference tournament championship solidified their strong profile, and they ended up a nine seed, eventually knocking off Kansas thanks to the heroics of Ali Farokhmanesh.  Again, they would have gone dancing anyway with their gaudy record and 12^th-ranked RPI.  The Monarchs also won their conference tournament and finished 15-3 in the CAA.  They were an 11 seed in the Big Dance, but this game only served to hurt their seed in the long run.  ODU finished 27^th in the RPI.

Butler 70, Siena 53

The Bulldogs were 24-4 coming into this game, and rolled through the remainder of their schedule on their way to a five seed and their first Final Four appearance.  Siena won the MAAC regular season with a 17-1 record and also won the conference tournament, finishing 27-6 in the regular season with the 31^st-ranked RPI.  That earned them a 13 seed in the Big Dance.

Utah State 68, Wichita State 58

The Aggies were 21-6 heading into this game and wound up going 14-2 in the WAC.  They won 17 straight before losing in the conference tournament final, but that was enough to earn them a 12 seed as an at-large. Wichita State came in 22-6 but lost two of their final five games, including the MVC Championship against Northern Iowa.  They ended up in the NIT.

Iona 69, William & Mary 53

The fact that this was one of the better games doesn’t really speak well to the overall quality of the event a couple years ago.  However, the Gaels were 19-8 heading into this matchup, but they wound up not playing in the post-season after losing in the first round of the MAAC Tournament.  The Tribe was 19-7 coming in but went on to lose two more games, one of which was in the CAA Championship.  They wound up 22-10 in the regular season and faced North Carolina in the NIT.

Louisiana Tech 70, Northeastern 67

After winning this game, the Bulldogs were 21-6, but they collapsed down the stretch, losing four of their final six games and landing in the CIT.  Northeastern also went south after the game and lost two of their last four.  They lost to UConn in the first round of the NIT.  Yes, Carolina and UConn were both in the NIT that year.

2009 BracketBusters

Butler 75, Davidson 63

Butler was 22-4 heading into this game despite having lost two in a row.  They finished 15-3 in the Horizon League and lost to Cleveland State in the tournament final, but they ended up 24^th in RPI.  The Bulldogs still received an at-large bid as a nine seed, so I don’t think this game was the difference between that seed and not making it at all.  Even Stephen Curry wasn’t enough for Davidson in this one, but they still finished 18-2 in the SoCon and lost in the conference semis.  Still, they were left out of the NCAA Tournament and settled for the NIT.

Saint Mary’s 75, Utah State 64

This was a huge game for the Gaels, who had struggled after losing Patty Mills to an injury.  They wound up getting blown out by Gonzaga in the WCC Final even though Mills returned but was visibly rusty.  The Gaels finished 26-6 with the 45^th-ranked RPI but were snubbed from the tournament and made it to the NIT Quarterfinals.  Utah State was ranked 23^rd heading into the game and finished 30-4 after winning the WAC title.  Their season ended as an 11 seed when they lost by a point to Marquette.

Siena 81, Northern Iowa 75

The Saints were 22-6 following this victory and finished an impressive 16-2 in the MAAC.  They also won the conference tournament and eventually knocked off Ohio State in double overtime in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  UNI responded well to the loss and won their final five games, including the MVC Championship.  They lost to Purdue as a 12 seed in the tournament.

Creighton 76, George Mason 63

The Bluejays were 22-6 heading into this game and finished 14-4 in the MVC.  However, a loss in the tournament semifinals landed them in the NIT despite the 46^th-ranked RPI.  George Mason ended up with a similar fate, as they went 13-5 in the CAA but were left out of the Big Dance after losing in the tournament finals.

Nevada 71, VCU 70

Nevada wound up 11-5 in the WAC, but a loss to Utah State in the tournament final left them with a 21-12 record.  They were forced to settle for the CBI and lost in their first game against UTEP.  The Rams fell to 19-9 with this loss but won their final five games to finish 14-4 in the CAA and earn the automatic bid.  They lost a one-point game to UCLA as an 11 seed.

So Does BracketBusters Help Or Hurt?

A number of the winners and losers of these games ended up making the NCAA Tournament by virtue of winning their conference tournaments, but you certainly can’t credit the BracketBusters for that.  In the end, only two of the teams above (VCU in 2011 and Utah State in 2010) could even think of crediting their at-large bid to their success in the event.

However, more damning than that is the fact that no team that lost in the event wound up receiving an at-large bid.  Even Saint Mary’s, who beat a ranked Utah State team in 2009 and lost many of their games without one of their top players, ended up getting snubbed by the selection committee.  BracketBusters did nothing to help these teams.

The other thing I found interesting is how many teams, both winners and losers, suffered a loss or series of losses following their BracketBusters matchup.  Perhaps it’s the fact that it interrupts the rhythm of conference play or causes lengthier travel for some teams, but for whatever reason a number of participants finished the season poorly.

Does that mean I don’t think Murray State will make the tournament if they lose to Saint Mary’s?  Not necessarily, but I also think the Racers will plow through the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament.  It most certainly would impact their seeding though, definitely moreso than if a major conference team suffered one loss to an opponent of similar caliber.

Again, I like the event as a basketball junkie, but anyone who tries to pass it off as some kind of benevolent act that allows more mid-major teams to play their way into the NCAA Tournament is vastly overstating the impact of the event.

The results would suggest there is as much – if not more – to lose for BracketBusters participants.

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

As always, Jerod, Ryan, and Andy will be here with another episode of The Assembly Call as soon as the game ends with instant analysis and fan reaction.

IU-Michigan Gameday Info

• Date: Wednesday, February 1st
• Time: 6:30 ET, 5:30 CT
• TV: BTN
• Announcers: Gus Johnson and Shon Morris
• Point Spread: Michigan -2.5
• Over-Under: 135
• KenPom Prediction: Michigan 71-70 with a 54% chance of winning
• Peegs: IU Gameday
• Inside the Hall: What to Expect – Michigan
• IU-Penn State live tweet coverage: @AssemblyCall
• Assembly Call IU Postgame Show: http://assemblycall.com/live

IU-Michigan Preview

Michigan

The Wolverines have alternated wins and losses over their last six games and are coming off of a three-game road trip where they went 1-2 with a win at Purdue sandwiched between losses at Arkansas and Ohio State.  Tim Hardaway Jr. has led the team in scoring in each of the last two games with 19 points against the Boilers and 15 versus the Buckeyes.  However, Michigan shot just four free throws against OSU and was crushed on the glass, allowing the Buckeyes to grab 14 offensive rebounds.

Offensively, the Wolverines have taken 43.0 percent of their shots from beyond the arc despite connecting on just over 30 percent from deep.  Interestingly, they are sixth in the nation in two-point shooting.  With freshman Trey Burke running the show, they have a low turnover rate, but they are last in free throw rate during league play.  Overall, their offensive efficiency is in the middle of the pack, but their 0.84 points per possession against OSU is dragging down what would otherwise be a solid average.

That isn’t particularly good news for Indiana given how poor their defense has been in league play.  The Hoosiers rank eighth or worse in all four factors and surrendered 1.08 ppp in the first meeting between these two teams.  They did show signs of improvement against Wisconsin, but they allowed 1.20 ppp against Iowa on Sunday.  The fact that Michigan plays at a much slower pace should help limit transition baskets, but it will be critical for the Hoosiers to keep Burke out of the lane.

Burke has been one of the best freshman in the nation and comes in averaging 14.1 points, 5.0 assists, and 3.6 rebounds.  The Wolverines have also gotten improved play from big man Jordan Morgan, who has 36 points and 18 rebounds over the last three games.  Indiana natives Zack Novak and Stu Douglass will also be looking to end their careers against the Hoosiers on a high note.

On defense, the Wolverines have allowed their last five opponents to score at least 1.04 ppp.  They rank first in opponents’ free throw rate and third in turnover rate in conference play.  However, they have allowed league foes to shoot 38.4 percent from beyond the arc and are last in block percentage.  Cody Zeller and Christian Watford combined for 43 points on 16-of-21 shooting in the first meeting, so expect the Hoosiers to attack from the inside out.

Michigan is in the middle of the pack in defensive rebounding percentage in league play but has allowed opponents to grab at least 36 percent of their misses in three of the last five games.  On Sunday the Hoosiers grabbed 18 of their 30 missed shots against Iowa, and it will be critical for them to maintain that level of aggressiveness on the boards.

Indiana

IU should come in with plenty of confidence offensively after scoring 103 points against Iowa, as six players reached double figures.  The Hoosiers changed their starting lineup for the first time in that game, inserting sophomore Will Sheehey in place of fellow soph Victor Oladipo.  Both players seemed to respond well, and it’s worth noting that Sheehey missed the first matchup between these teams with an ankle injury.  His ability to defend multiple positions should really help the Hoosiers against the perimeter-oriented Wolverines.

For Indiana, Zeller is coming off of a career-high 26 points against Iowa, most of which came on dunks.  Verdell Jones III has also played better of late with 26 points in the last two games.  He has been more aggressive in going to the basket, and many of his nine assists against the Hawkeyes were off of dribble penetration.  He needs to remain aggressive and put pressure on the Michigan defense while making good decisions with the ball in his hands.

The Hoosiers got 18 points and five offensive rebounds from the bench tandem of Derek Elston and Tom Pritchard against Iowa.  Elston has played much better over the last three games, and Tom Crean’s team has gotten a real spark from the bench in recent games.  Given Michigan’s struggles to defend the three-point line, sharpshooter Matt Roth could play a factor in the outcome.

Final Thought

For IU, the keys on defense will be containing Burke off the dribble and forcing Hardaway to settle for contested jumpers while controlling the defensive glass.  If they can rekindle the defensive energy they showed against Wisconsin, they should be able to slow up Michigan offensively.

On the other end of the floor, the team needs to maintain their aggressiveness by going inside to Zeller or penetrating off the dribble.  That should open things up at the three-point line for shooters like Jordan Hulls and Matt Roth.  They also need to attack the offensive glass, as Michigan has shown vulnerability there in recent games.

The Wolverines are undefeated at home this season, although victories over Minnesota, Northwestern, and Michigan State have come by a combined eight points.  Consequently, I expect a close game that won’t be decided until the final minutes.

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Listen to Andy Sunday on The Assembly Call. Follow him on Twitter at @AndyBottoms.

Despite the fact that March Madness will be here before we know it, the exercise to find the last few at-large teams seems to actually be getting worse as each week passes.  At this point, I’ll actually be hoping for some conference tournament bid thefts!

Below are my latest projections through Sunday’s games.  As usual, underneath the bracket I will give my last four in and last four out, as well as the rationale I used to make those decisions.

Last Four In:

Cincinnati

A loss at Rutgers pushed the Bearcats just outside of the RPI Top 100, but I am leaving them in based on their 6-4 record against the Top 100, including road wins at Georgetown and Connecticut.  I have no question they are one of the best 68 teams in the country, but their strength of schedule gives them little margin for error in terms of losing to inferior opponents.  Their remaining schedule is manageable with their toughest games a home-and-home with Marquette and a home date with Louisville.

Colorado State

It’s unrealistic to think the Mountain West gets four bids, but the Rams are ranked 29th in the RPI with a high strength of schedule, which gets them in the field for now.  They finally picked up a signature win by beating San Diego State at home, but in their previous two games they lost by 19 at Wyoming and by 33 at New Mexico.  That makes CSU’s hold on this bid rather tenuous with a road trip to UNLV looming on Wednesday.

Mississippi

When I found myself considering the Rebels, I was admittedly shocked, but that’s how bad things are.  They are 5-6 against the Top 100, with their best win coming against Mississippi State.  The Rebels played well at home against Florida last week but couldn’t pull out the victory.  A pair of questionable road losses in SEC play aren’t doing them any favors, but they are 8-7 against the Top 150.  That doesn’t sound like much, but you would be surpised how many bubble teams are below .500 against teams in that range.

Washington

Whether you agree or not, I still believe the Pac-12 gets two teams in, and as of now, the Huskies look like the second-best team behind Cal.  They are 7-2 in the conference at the halfway point and have as much talent as anyone in the league.  However, they have zero Top 50 wins, but they also don’t have any sub-100 losses.  For now, that’s as good as it gets in the Pac-12.

First Four Out:

Arkansas

The Hogs split games last week by narrowly defeating Auburn at home and falling on the road against Alabama.  Arkansas still has no wins away from home at this point, and their loss to Houston is pretty ugly.  They are 3-5 against the Top 100 and 7-5 against the Top 150, but for now I gave Mississippi the edge based on a win when they met head-to-head.  It’s a fairly important week for the Razorbacks, who host Vandy on Tuesday before heading to LSU over the weekend.

BYU

After losing at home to Saint Mary’s, the Cougars still have no Top 50 wins and have been swept by the Gaels by a total of 30 points.  They won at Virginia Tech earlier in the week, but the Hokies aren’t even close to being a tournament team right now.  As it stands, BYU is 5-4 versus the Top 100 and 7-6 versus the Top 150, but eight of their wins are against sub-200 teams.  Consequently, Thursday’s home game with Gonzaga is virtually a must-win game for the Cougars.

North Carolina State

The Wolfpack came up empty last week against North Carolina and Virginia, and a win in either game would have made their tournament profile much more compelling.  They are now 0-5 against the Top 50 but 5-6 against the Top 100, with a home loss to Georgia Tech the biggest blemish on their profile.  N.C. State’s next three games fall in the “can’t lose” category, while a three-game stretch against Duke, Florida State, and North Carolina in February will be huge for their tournament hopes.

Texas

The early part of Texas’ Big 12 schedule has been brutal, and they are now just 3-5 in the league.  They did pick up a nice win at home against Iowa State last week, but the fact remains they are a mere 2-7 against the Top 100 and 6-8 against the Top 150.  Monday’s home game with Missouri is huge for the Longhorns, who have played well against tougher teams so far but always managed to come up just short.

Here is how the bids broke out by conference:

Big East (9): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Syracuse, West Virginia

Big Ten (8): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

SEC (6): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Big 12 (5): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri

ACC (4): Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia

Atlantic 10 (4): Dayton, Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier

Mountain West (4): Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Conference USA (2): Memphis, Southern Mississippi

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

Pac-12 (2): California, Washington

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

America East: Stony Brook

Atlantic Sun: Belmont

Big Sky: Weber State

Big South: UNC-Asheville

Big West: Long Beach State

Colonial: VCU

Horizon: Cleveland State

Ivy: Harvard

MAAC: Iona

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Northeast: Long Island

Ohio Valley: Murray State

Patriot: Bucknell

Southern: Davidson

Southland: Texas-Arlington

Summit: Oral Roberts

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State

SWAC: Mississippi Valley State

WAC: Nevada

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.

The great news is that in a mere six weeks, we’ll have a bracket in our hands with March Madness just days away.

College Basketball Power Rankings

1. Kentucky (21-1, Previous Ranking: 1)

The Wildcats won road games against Georgia and LSU by a combined 37 points, with Darius Miller leading the way with 19 against the Bulldogs and Terrence Jones going off for 27 against the Tigers.

Kentucky has now won 13 straight, but for those waiting to see them against the SEC’s best, they’ll have to wait another week.  The Wildcats are home against Tennessee on Tuesday before a road trip to South Carolina.

2. Ohio State (19-3, Previous Ranking: 2)

It was Lenzelle Smith Jr., not Jared Sullinger, who posted a double-double against Michigan, as the OSU sophomore had 17 points and 12 rebounds in a 15-point victory.  The Buckeyes crushed Penn State at home earlier in the week behind 20 points and 13 boards from Sullinger.

Ohio State is idle until next Saturday when they head to the Kohl Center for a matchup with the resurgent Badgers.

3. Syracuse (22-1, Previous Ranking: 4)

It wasn’t exactly pretty from the Orange this week, but they managed to beat Cincinnati and West Virginia.

Against the Bearcats, ‘Cuse made just 5-of-15 free throws, shot 25% from beyond the arc, and allowed 13 offensive rebounds, which is not exactly the typical recipe for a win.  They were nearly doubled up on the glass by West Virginia and benefited from a late no-call on a clear goaltend to win by two points.

Fab Melo’s status is still uncertain due to academic issues, and the Orange haven’t been quite the same without him.  Their only game this week is at St. John’s on Saturday.

4. North Carolina (18-3, Previous Ranking: 6)

The Heels took care of business at home this week against North Carolina State and Georgia Tech.  Tyler Zeller had 21 points and 17 rebounds against the Wolfpack, and Harrison Barnes poured in 23 against the Jackets.

UNC hits the road this week for a pair of winnable road games against Wake Forest and Maryland, but they need to make sure not to look ahead to the Duke game the following week.

5. Kansas (17-4, Previous Ranking: 5)

The Jayhawks suffered their first Big 12 loss at Iowa State on Saturday, as the Cyclones limited Thomas Robinson to 13 points and seven rebounds.  KU also put the Cyclones on the line 34 times and got almost no production from their bench.

The Jayhawks will look to bounce back when Oklahoma comes to Lawrence on Wednesday before they head to Mizzou for what should be a terrific game on Saturday.

For now, I gave the Jayhawks the slight edge over Missouri since their loss this week was more “forgiveable.”  I also couldn’t rank Baylor ahead of KU based on their margin of defeat in Lawrence.

6. Missouri (19-2, Previous Ranking: 3)

On the heels of their impressive road win at Baylor, the Tigers dropped a game at Oklahoma State, as they allowed their second-highest point total of the season and shot poorly from the outside.  They bounced back to beat Texas Tech at home behind 22 points from Kim English and 12 assists from Flip Pressey.

Mizzou starts a tough four-game stretch with a road trip to Texas on Monday before the Jayhawks visit Columbia on Saturday.

7. Baylor (19-2, Previous Ranking: 7)

The Bears pulled away late to pick up a road win at Oklahoma then held on to defeat Texas by five at home.  Perry Jones III had a huge week with 43 points and 26 rebounds in the team’s two wins.

Based on their overall body of work, Baylor is likely to be a one seed in my next set of bracket projections, but they can’t afford to slip up this week in road games against Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.

8. Duke (18-3, Previous Ranking: 6)

Mason Plumlee came up big for the Blue Devils this week with 23 points and 12 boards in a road win at Maryland, and he followed that up with 15 points and 17 rebounds against St. John’s.

Outside of a three-point home win against Virginia, Duke hasn’t beaten a tournament-caliber team since late November, which makes it hard to truly assess them.  This week features a road trip to Virginia Tech and a home game with Miami leading into a February 8th matchup against North Carolina.

9. Michigan State (17-4, Previous Ranking: 9)

Tom Izzo won his 400th game in MSU’s lone outing this week, a 16-point win over Minnesota at the Breslin Center.  Draymond Green was fantastic with 22 points on 9-of-11 shooting, 14 rebounds, and six assists.

The Spartans have a pair of tough games this week when they head to Illinois on Tuesday and host Michigan on Sunday.  They need to win both to stay tied in the loss column with Ohio State.

10. UNLV (20-3, Previous Ranking: 11)

The Rebels needed overtime to knock off both Boise State and Air Force on the road this week, but they managed to escape with a pair of wins.  Mike Moser was simply ridiculous, as he had 18 points and 21 (yes, 21) rebounds against the Broncos followed by 27 points and a mere 12 boards versus the Falcons.

UNLV hosts Colorado State this week before a weekend trip to Wyoming.

11. Creighton (20-2, Previous Ranking: 12)

With wins over Drake and Bradley, the Bluejays extended their winning streak to 10 games.  To the surprise of no one, Doug McDermott tallied 54 points in the victories, making 10-of-14 shots in each contest.

Creighton has just eight regular season games left, starting with a home game against Illinois State on Wednesday and a road trip to Northern Iowa on Saturday.

12. Georgetown (16-4, Previous Ranking: 10)

The Hoyas lost their only game of the week against an improving Pittsburgh team after allowing the Panthers to shoot 52.1 percent from the field while they struggled to get anything going offensively.

Senior guard Jason Clark was held to just nine points in the loss, but Georgetown can’t afford to get down on themselves with UConn coming to D.C. on Wednesday.

13. Marquette (18-4, Previous Ranking: 18)

Marquette continues to fall behind early in games, but they rallied from an 18-point first half deficit to win at Villanova on Saturday.  They also blasted South Florida by 20 points earlier in the week.  Seniors Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder combined for 46 points, 17 rebounds, nine assists, and four steals to key the victory over the Wildcats.

The Golden Eagles have now won six straight heading into a home game against reeling Seton Hall before a road trip to surging Notre Dame.

14. Murray State (21-0, Previous Ranking: 14)

The Racers won easily over Eastern Illinois in their only game of the week.  They got 18 points each from Isaiah Canaan and Donte Poole, but perhaps most importantly, forward Ivan Aska returned after missing the last six games with a hand injury.

Murray State shouldn’t have much trouble with Southeast Missouri State or Tennessee-Martin, but the biggest part of their week comes on Monday when the BracketBusters matchups are announced.

15. Michigan (16-6, Previous Ranking: 15)

After starting the week with a hard-fought road win against Purdue, the Wolverines lost by 15 at Ohio State on Sunday.  Tim Hardaway Jr. led the way in both games with a total of 34 points, but the team has now alternated wins and losses over the last six games.

The tough stretch of their schedule continues when Indiana comes to Ann Arbor on Wednesday before they head to East Lansing on Sunday.

16. San Diego State (18-3, Previous Ranking: 13)

I mentioned that road games at Wyoming and Colorado State might be tougher than people think, and that turned out to be the case when the Aztecs lost by 17 to the Rams on Saturday.  SDSU made just 3-of-21 from beyond the arc against Colorado State and shot only 31.3 percent from the field.

Home games with Boise State and TCU this week should allow them to get back on track and remain atop the MWC standings.

17. Florida (17-4, Previous Ranking: 19)

The Gators picked up a pair of solid victories this week, winning by four at Mississippi and knocking off a ranked Mississippi State team by 12 points.  A number of different players contributed for Florida, with Patric Young scoring 15 against the Rebels and freshman Brad Beal going for 19 versus the Bulldogs.

Thursday’s home game against South Carolina is one they should win handily, while a Saturday matchup with Vanderbilt gives Florida another chance to prove themselves.

18. Florida State (14-6, Previous Ranking: 20)

The red hot Noles extended their winning streak to five games with a 23-point win at Wake Forest last week.  Michael Snaer continued his strong play with 18 points in the victory, while the team turned in a solid all-around effort on both ends of the floor.

They shouldn’t have any issues with Georgia Tech on Wednesday, but Saturday’s date with Virginia will help settle the argument about who the ACC’s third-best team really is.

19. Wisconsin (17-5, Previous Ranking: 25)

After holding off Indiana on Thursday, the Badgers have now won five straight after a 1-3 start in Big Ten play.  Four players scored in double figures for Wisconsin, and Ryan Evans grabbed nine rebounds, including a few key offensive boards late.

The Badgers head to Penn State this week before a huge home date with Ohio State on Saturday.

20. Indiana (17-5, Previous Ranking: 16)

The Hoosiers had a chance to win in Madison but struggled down the stretch and lost by seven.  On Sunday, they bounced back to take advantage of a poor Iowa defense to the tune of 103 points.  Freshman Cody Zeller struggled against the Badgers but scored a career-high 26 points against the Hawkeyes.

The Hoosiers also changed up their starting lineup for the first time this season, as Will Sheehey started in place of fellow soph Victor Oladipo.

IU hits the road this week for games against Michigan and Purdue.

21. Virginia (17-3, Previous Ranking: 21)

ACC Player of the Year candidate Mike Scott scored 18 points against both Boston College and North Carolina State, as the Cavs won both games to move to 4-2 in the conference.

A winnable home game with Clemson awaits this week before a Saturday trip to Tallahassee.  The reality is that Virginia has a solid record, but only one of those victories has come at the expense of a Top 50 team.

22. Saint Mary’s (21-2, Previous Ranking: 23)

The Gaels beat Loyola Marymount and BYU on the road to move to 10-0 in the WCC.  Brad Waldow continued his solid play with 19 points and eight rebounds against the Cougars, and Saint Mary’s was able to win comfortably despite an uncharacteristic 11 turnovers during the week from Matthew Dellavedova.

Their only game this week is at home against San Diego, but they are also anxiously awaiting their BracketBusters fate.

23. Mississippi State (17-5, Previous Ranking: 22)

Arnett Moultrie extended his streak of double-doubles to five games, but the Bulldogs went 1-1 during the week, beating LSU at home and falling to Florida on the road.

MSU plays their next three games at home, starting with Saturday’s home date with Auburn.  They need to hold serve in those games with four of their final six on the road.

24. Kansas State (15-5, Previous Ranking: 17)

After losing to Oklahoma for the second time this year, the Wildcats nearly dropped out of the Top 25.  Rodney McGruder had a solid game against the Sooners with 19 points, but the team struggled offensively with 41.2 percent shooting and 20 turnovers.

This week they head to Ames to take on a confident Cyclones team followed by a home game against Texas A&M.

25. West Virginia (15-7, Previous Ranking: 24)

The Mountaineers played poorly in a road loss to St. John’s, but they bounced back to give Syracuse everything they could handle at the Carrier Dome.  Had referees not missed a clear goaltend near the end of regulation, West Virginia would have had a shot to pick up a huge road in overtime.

Kevin Jones continues to be phenomenal and has now scored at least 20 points in seven straight games, including four double-doubles.

The Mountaineers play three of their next four games at home, starting with Pitt on Monday.

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