NFL Against The Spread Week 17: Last Call Edition

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It all comes down to this, one last Sunday to close the 2014 NFL regular season.

With most fantasy seasons now completed attention this Sunday focuses on daily games, with several strategies in play and all 32 teams in action.

I hope you have enjoyed this year’s editions of Against The Spread, it has been a successful year from a won-loss perspective!

Week 16 record: 8-8
Season record: 130-106-3

Indianapolis Colts (10-5) -7 at Tennessee Titans (2-13)
The Colts already have Luck, now the Titans want the Duck. Tennessee has zero motivation to win this game because a loss would sew up the No. 1 overall draft pick. The Colts have already ensured themselves the AFC’s No. 4 seed and will host a Wild Card game next weekend, but seek momentum following last week’s debacle in Dallas. This will be unwatchable football.
ATS pick: Colts

San Diego Chargers (9-6) +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs (8-7)
The Chargers have put themselves in a simple “win and in” situation. Kansas City can still claim the AFC’s final playoff slot, but need a win plus losses from the Ravens and Texans. In a developing story, Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith is out with a lacerated spleen and will be replaced by Chase Daniel, who went 21-of-30 for 200 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers in Week 17 last year.
ATS pick: Chargers

New York Jets (3-12) +5.5 at Miami Dolphins (8-7)
Dolphins Stadium will be filled with Jets fans as two teams whose coaches may be gone Monday morning do battle. The Dolphins’ 2015 home game against the Jets has already been outsourced to London.
ATS pick: Jets

Chicago Bears (5-10) +6.5 at Minnesota Vikings (6-9)
Jimmy Clausen played out last week’s game concealing a concussion sustained at the hands of Lions defensive end Ziggy Ansah. As a result, Jay Cutler will be back under center in Minneapolis. That should upgrade the values of Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett for the week.
ATS pick: Bears

Buffalo Bills (8-7) +4.5 at New England Patriots (12-3)
The Patriots have secured the AFC’s top seed, meaning Tom Brady and other regulars will play sparingly if at all on Sunday. I look for the Bills to finish off what would be a winning season on a high note.
ATS pick: Bills

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) +3 at New York Giants (6-9)
Getting 48 catches, 657 yards and eight touchdowns would be a good season for many receivers, it is also what Odell Beckham Jr. has amassed in just the last five weeks, bringing back memories of Randy Moss’s 1998 rookie campaign. Look for ODB to be a top-three overall fantasy pick for 2015 and possibly No. 1 in some circles. He is now officially the NFL’s best receiver.
ATS pick: Gaints

New Orleans Saints (6-9) -4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13)
The Buccaneers will be assured of a top-two draft pick by losing this game, possibly resulting in Jameis Winston remaining in Florida.
ATS pick: Saints

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) -6 at Washington (4-11)
The Cowboys still have hopes of earning a first-round bye, but I expect DeMarco Murray to see limited playing time to give his hand another week to rest. I strongly recommend Joseph Randle in daily games, as he will be dirt-cheap.
ATS pick: Cowboys

Cleveland Browns (7-8) +10 at Baltimore Ravens (9-6)
As bad as the Ravens stunk it up in Houston last week, I do not expect a repeat, as the Browns will be down to rookie third-string quarterback Connor Shaw. The Ravens will make the playoffs with a win plus a Chargers loss.
ATS pick: Ravens

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) +9.5 at Houston Texans (8-7)
The Jaguars can look towards the Texans for evidence that they can make a quantum leap in 2015. The Jags will be looking at top five pick regardless of Sunday’s outcome. Houston has remote playoff hopes but need a win plus Chargers and Ravens losses.
ATS pick: Texans

Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) +4 at Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
The winner of this game wins the NFC South and hosts a wild card game next weekend, so most players in this contest will be wise daily league options. Falcons running back Stephen Jackson (quad) will sit, with Devonta Freeman getting the majority of his reps.
ATS pick: Falcons

Oakland Raiders (3-12) +14 at Denver Broncos (11-4)
After losing Sunday night, this game suddenly has meaning for Denver who must win to lock up a first-round bye. The Raiders have scored three quality home wins in recent weeks, but remain a disaster on the road.
ATS pick: Raiders

Detroit Lions (11-4) +7.5 at Green Bay Packers (11-4)
The Lions broke a 16-game losing streak in temperatures under 40 degrees last week in Chicago. The next curse for Detroit to break is a 23-game skid in the state of Wisconsin dating back to the days of Wayne Fontes. The winner of this game earns a first-round bye while the loser will be the NFC’s sixth seed.
ATS pick: Lions

Arizona Cardinals (11-4) +6 at San Francisco 49ers (7-8)
The league’s worst kept secret is that this will be the last game of the Jim Harbaugh era in San Francisco. Cris Collinsworth tried to sell the Kool-Aid of the Cardinals still being an NFC contender before being routed by Seattle last Sunday. I look for the Cards to be one and done in the playoffs.
ATS pick: 49ers

St. Louis Rams (6-9) +12.5 at Seattle Seahawks (11-4)
Everyone saw this coming a month ago, the Seahawks have run the table since Thanksgiving and will earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a home win. Russell Wilson won a lot of people money last week (36.36 fantasy points).
ATS pick: Seahawks

Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) +3.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
The final Sunday night game of the season will be for the AFC North title, the winner hosts a Wild Card game next weekend while the loser will play at Indianapolis. The two teams met just three weeks ago as Le’Veon Bell and several others put up huge fantasy numbers.
ATS pick: Steelers



About Kurt Allen

Have written/blogged about sports since 2000, along with starting my popular Twitter feed in 2009. I also closely follow fantasy sports developments, along with events such as the NFL Draft.

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  294. Will, Unfortunately, the later revisions of the WRT routers don’t have enough internal flash ram to run the full firmware; and installation of the micro sized firmware is kinda iffy.If you have an earlier revision however, I would highly recommend trying it out.Also, the best option is to replace both your access point antenna(e), as well as that of the PCI card. Linksys makes replacement antennae for the WRT family (as do third parties), and dlink and hawking have high gain antennae for the cards AND the access points.Chris Byrne´s last blog post..

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  306. Very impressive. I love the skirt fabric – no-one would guess it isn’t dress fabric!I really must take your lead and plan more when I sew for myself. My random method doesn’t give results as good as this.

  307. Metaphors DO NOT use like or as, so my suggestion is something along the lines of…:S/he is the gentle morning mist, evaporating as the sun climbs in the sky, yet lingering in the atmosphere. … mist is a good comparison to invisibility, since it doesn’t last to our vision, but it’s still there in the sky.

  308. LOL. LOL LOL. Thats all I can say. LOL again!His legal comments as Another Anon Coward were quite interesting; but now he has “paternal concern for all the students of the country!?

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    • Wow that was strange. I just wrote an really long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up. Grrrr’ well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyway, just wanted to say fantastic blog! No complaints on this end, simply a good piece. Hallelujah! I needed this-you’re my savior. Geez, that’s unbelievable. Kudos and such.

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  312. Gayle, I’m so glad I got to meet you! You are right on with this post. Jenn & Tony work hard to get the ‘unglamourous’ things accomplished, and yet they always put relationships first. They’re inspiring!

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  320. Hey, that post leaves me feeling foolish. Kudos to you!

  321. What’s wrong with emerging markets investing? High volatility but also high CAGR historically. Certainly not for short term but why not 1/3 emerging, 1/3rd total stock, 1/3 bonds?

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  327. Hey Martin,I just stumbled upon your blog a week ago, and I really enjoy your posts, your pictures, and your respect for the recipes. I was wondering, did you ever finish Tomato, mozzarella, many complimentary flavors? I would love to read the post, but it is not in the recipe index… Thanks!Brian

  328. Government provides some essential services. But it is not essential that government provides them. Corporations provide some essential and non-essential services. It is not essential that corporations provide them. How did man advance technology and bring it to market without the corporation? Corporations are not essential. This should be sufficiently obvious.

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  330. >You look gorgeous! That second picture could be used in an ad for perfume or some such that makes you think romance. Just lovely!Lucky you to be getting a break ) Have fun!

  331. Ben bravo, c’est la même date que notre convention de jeux à quelques km si jamais, on serait absolument ravi de pouvoir tester les deux jeux en question!(oui, c’est une publicité éhontée, mais comprenez la frustration qui s’empare de moi alors que je ne serai pas disponible pour rencontrer ZE Martin Vidberg, alors que je suis qu’à quelques encablures de là )Ah et pour finir, excellente entrée comme d’habitude !bran.

  332. Amki / I would also suggest to have a look at MUMS N MUNCHKINS in Galleria market, I recently went there and was really happy to see the glamorous and yet decently priced clothes there. Infact the behavior of the staff was also much better than other shops.

  333. I didn’t watch the debates for similar reasons. (Likewise, I am hardly an undecided voter.) Unfortunately, our current system is organized to funnel serious candidates into one of two channels to facilitate the illusion of a clean, binary choice. I’m not sure we’ll ever get candidates truly speaking their minds when solid, substantive positions are likely to alienate more people than not. The perils of attempting democracy with such a huge, unwieldy electorate!Maybe for 2016 we’ll get a Big Brother-style “reality” show where the candidates live together for the final month of the campaign.

  334. As Charlie Sheen says, this article is “WINNING!”

  335. few healthier options in the coming weeks: homemade cookies, trail mix with dried fruit, or even a homebaked brownie as their special little side. (And Thursday’s giveaway — wait for it — is going

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    • That’s the thinking of a creative mind Thank you! I really like your article.

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  350. Well, a rant can be cathartic from time to time. (At least for me! But maybe I should save them for elsewhere.) The linked pieces and the more recent one are a little more, um, temperate. I'm with ya, firing bad members of Congress (almost all the Republicans, and some of the Democrats) would be a great idea, but there is the . Then there's senate reforms, especially regarding the filibuster.

  351. Ah, vão fazer jogos às 18.00 para a … que vos …Já no anterior jogo contra o United só vi a segunda parte por ter ficado trancado no trânsito, hoje nem valia a pena pensar nisso.

  352. looks deelish!! I have to try. I love your blog title, since that describes me. I love cupcakes, honey and marshmallow-peeps, fluff, anything marshmallow, and chicago deep dish pizza, so I won't give up ALL but have chosen to be almost vegan and raw when I can.

  353. Moi qui n’enregistre jamais de tennis sur ma Freebox, je ne sais quelle mouche m’a piqué, j’ai enregistré ce match et depuis, je l’ai regardé deux fois. Je confirme : c’est un des plus beaux matches de tennis que j’ai vu depuis longtemps. Djokovic a pilonné le revers de Federer pendant des heures et ce dernier a, dans l’ensemble, très bien résisté. Est-ce que le revers de Federer tiendra contre les gros lifts de Nadal ?….J’espère.

  354. Newbie question on refi:Is it worth refinancing to move from 5% to 4.5%? What percentage drop would be worth it, say for about 250-300k principal. Any advantages if the loan is relatively new [1-2 years], or it has to go through the whole appraisal/inspection process again?

  355. I like your approach, all except for the nukes. Nukes will kill everything. I'd rather have a virus that kills only humans (painlessly) and leaves everything else intact.There used to be a rumor that Earth First! was developing such a virus. I doubt it, but it's an excellent idea.

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  363. That’s an apt answer to an interesting question

  364. Anon – I don't think you'd really even need to replace the mushrooms with anything. You could just leave them out and it'd be great. Zucchini would be another vegetable that would mix well with the others, if you like that.

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  373. I realise I’m a little late to this particular party, but I just wanted to say how much I sympathise with your experience finding friends for Z in China.We have the same problem and our eldest isn’t yet 4! Most of his classmates from kindergarten are off at “Interest Classes” at the weekends (why aren’t they doing art/music at KG?!) and only seem to play between 6-9pm, while ours are asleep by 7…I’m really enjoying catching up with your blog, and particularly looking forward to when/if you return to Zhongguo!Jay Sheldon ChinoiserieBlog recently posted..

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    • I truly appreciate your efforts and I am waiting for your next post. Don’t get afraid to spread your thoughts. This is an excellent, an eye-opener for sure!

  378. Bonjour!I don’t know you but I work with Ali She gave me your website because she knows how much I love to ‘try’ to cook (just like her but she knows lol). I really like your website and I am also obsessed with Paris (my name is Chanel) but I still need to learn the language. I will defintely be trying some of your French recipes as I have the Julia Child book and find it extremely difficult.Au Revoir

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  383. ET Bien je vote (sans hésiter) POUR cette (souveraine) invitation / intrusion du vestiaire printano / estival en pleine grisaille hivernale !!! Telle une invite subliminale à précipiter l’arrivée d’une saison . . . d’autant plus désirée que les tendances des mois passés tendent (naturellement) à s’essouffler (OUI – nouvelle- Parenthèse “Trendy Psychologie”) !!! Até logo, Antoine

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  386. 14-11-12Douris54 a dit : oui c’est sur comme sa c’est a la portée de tout le monde Et de rien c’etait plutot sympa. Le prochain il faut encore plus de question lol Cette solution vous a été utile?

  387. This judge is an ass. Call the number provided, everybody. This delightful young lady did NOT deserve any of this outrageous treatment. Let our judges remember that we put them in the position they are in to “serve” the public. The public can remove them just as easily.

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  393. By November 28, 2011 – 6:58 pmRebecca:I recently got a lovely little Feedburner e-mail list going. Subscribe on the Upcoming Books page to automatically receive an e-mail when I post about a new release (don’t forget the verify your e-mail address)

  394. MIKE2, YOU’RE FORGETTING A PLETHORA OF CLOSING COSTSLike real estate fees.Escrow feesStartup Costs (i.e., fences, yards, broke stuff)Moving CostsEtc, etc, etc…..I’ve heard, if you don’t plan on staying in a house for 5 years, don’t sell, rent. It costs too much to buy if you don’t own it for at least 5 years. I’d say more like 10-15 years the way the bubble climate recently looks in Seattle…. – Rate this comment: 0  0

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