Pickin’ On the Big Ten: 2013 Leaders Division preview

The 2013 Big Ten football season is ready to begin, and it’s the last year we have to put up with the goofpot “Leaders” and “Legends” division names. (Seriously, children, marketing experts aren’t right about everything, and just because a focus group comes up with an idea like “Leaders” and “Legends” doesn’t mean the general public will ever go along with it.) We need to look at how each division will die, hopefully screaming wrap up its storied three-season history and we’ll start with the one that excludes the M and N schools.

Big Ten Leaders DivisionBefore we begin, though, I do need to note that this is the first time Pickin’ on the Big Ten has appeared here at Midwest Sports Fans. Many of you have followed Pickin’ all over the internet, and for that I thank you. Others are new, so let me welcome you. I can’t prove it but I am fairly certain Pickin’ On the Big Ten is one of the longest-running college football features on the internet. It may even be the longest running. I’ve been writing it since the fall of 1999, which makes this the 15th season of Pickin’. I now have regular readers who are younger than the column itself. Very humbling.

Enough self-congratulation.. Let’s take a look at how the teams stack up. I’ve listed them below in my predicted order of finish within the Leaders Division.

1. Ohio State

This is a foregone conclusion, right? Last year’s 12-0 team doesn’t return completely intact but Urban Meyer is still the coach and Braxton Miller is still the quarterback, so I wouldn’t look for a sudden drop down to 8-4 or anything.

What intrigues me about OSU this season is that the Buckeyes, long known as big and “physical” (you know that means “pain-causing” in football speak) are becoming a bit smaller and faster. It’s not a drastic change in style but it’s more in tune with the realities of college football in 2013. You can’t just pummel somebody into submission, nor can you sit on a 10-point lead midway through the second quarter and task your defense with protecting the win. It’s what Rich Rodriguez was trying to do at Michigan (stop laughing, it totally is) but Rich Rod couldn’t get the right players before Michigan fans got tired of losing to multiple schools from Ohio in the same season.

The hype around the Buckeyes this season is epic, as both the coaches and the media have decided OSU will face Alabama for the national title. Any loss or show of weakness will be pounced on immediately so look for a fast start and watch out for that Cal game on September 14.

2. Wisconsin

I mean, I think Wisconsin belongs here. It’s hard to tell because nobody knows what kind of impact Gary Andersen is going to have on a Wisconsin program that hasn’t seen an all-new staff since I was a high school junior (1989, if you must know). The Badgers were already deep and talented but there isn’t a clear indication of how much change Andersen will bring to Madison. He hasn’t even settled on a starting quarterback yet.

The Badgers have an admirably tough non-conference schedule. Yeah, it starts with UMass and Tennessee Tech, but the Badgers then travel to Arizona State (many a promising Big Ten season has died in the Southwestern deserts in September) and host BYU in November. The conference schedule seems trap-free at this point. I expect Wisconsin to be 4-1 on the first of October with a fairly easy downhill slide to a January bowl game.

3. Penn State

Year one of the post-Paterno era was inspiring as the Nittany Lions needed only a few games to get the compass pointing north again. Bill O’Brien’s team was flawed but tough and likable.

Of course, year one was never going to be the toughest year.

The challenge for Penn State now will be dealing with a thinner roster and keeping the momentum going because there are still three more years of crippling NCAA sanctions to endure. A football team can’t run on pure emotion forever. Pride and honor are great but also intangible. And there’s a big ugly trap waiting for this year’s Nits. October brings a home clash with Michigan and a roadie to Columbus, two games where Penn State will want and need to show up. Before that there’s a trip to Bloomington to face Indiana, and you can ask Ohio State if the Hoosiers are still the low-hanging fruit they’ve always been. It’s quite possible IU’s offense could grind down the Nittany Lions and pull the upset, which would change the whole tone of the season instantly.

4. Indiana

Speaking of IU, goodness, the Hoosiers were fun to watch last season, weren’t they? So long as they had the ball, that is. Kevin Wilson has done what we all should have been expecting him to do, bringing a wide-open Big 12-style offense to the Big Ten.

If only it didn’t come with a “¡Viva el matador!” Big 12-style defense too.

Nonetheless, Indiana is lying in the weeds, and the Hoosiers are going to get somebody this season. Penn State is my most likely candidate but I don’t think Michigan State should rest too comfortably either. Still, until Indiana figures out defense a little bit better, it’ll be in a position where it can change a game but can’t control a game. That’s a good way to be capped at six or seven wins, though I think the Hoosier faithful would be happy with even a fourth-tier bowl game.

5. Purdue

Look, if Darrell Hazell can win at Kent State, it’s safe to assume he can win anywhere, and it’s not like Purdue was totally incompetent last seasCRUNCHOWOWOWOWOWOW. (Weird. Just typing one positive sentence about Purdue made me tear my ACL.)

I think it’s going to be a long season in West Lafayette, though not a hopeless one. It will be Hope-less, though. Hazell inherits a roster full of guys who are certainly fast but haven’t proven to be blessed with all the football skills one would hope for. He does get a pretty good quarterback in Rob Henry back from a very Purdue-like injury. Henry might be able to put together enough offense to keep the Boilermakers in a few games. I certainly think they’ll be good enough to stay out of the divisional cellar.

6. Illinois

To hear some people talk you’d think a coach had never gone 2-10 in his opening season at a school before. Yet it’s not that the Illini were 2-10 in Tim Beckman’s first season, it’s how they went 2-10 — while Toledo didn’t miss a step without Beckman — that has people wondering if we’re not witnessing Dan Hawkins 2.0 in Memorial Stadium. Illinois simply got drubbed by every Big Ten opponent other than a seasick Purdue team. The Illini couldn’t even score a touchdown against Minnesota. At home. The Gophers gave up 31 points to Iowa  (93.6 percent of the Hawkeyes’ total points last season).

That’s all the more galling because, as everyone will remind you, Ron Zook’s ability to recruit was never in question. There’s plenty of talent on the roster but the Illini were like a 500-horsepower Camaro with bald off-brand tires. No traction whatsoever.

I need to see more than one season to judge a coach’s fitness for a job so I’m giving Beckman the benefit of the doubt. Illinois starts off with four home games (OK, the Washington game is at Soldier Field, but come on) and could actually improve on last season’s win total before the conference season starts. There are no gimmes from that point on and it could come to pass that Illinois goes 0-for-the-Big Ten again in 2013. That’s a little sad, because I actually do expect the Illini to be a better team than last year’s squad. The improvement might not show up in the standings, though.



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