NCAA Tournament Re-Rack: Ranking the Sweet 16 Teams 1-16 Based on Computer Simulation Results

I’d say it is time to re-rack the remaining field of 16 for the NCAA Tournament.

Since my original projection using WhatifSports results has worked so well thus far (as in the 10th percentile), I thought of another great time-waster with the computer simulator: having all the teams play round-robin in a ‘Super 16’ Conference, all on a neutral court.

Would Louisville remain head and shoulders above everyone else? How would Florida Gulf Coast fare over a 15-game season?

Here they are, based on the WhatIfSports results, ranked from 16 all the way to number one…


Rick Pitino is not going to like where his Cardinals finished in Kurt’s simulated Sweet 16 rankings.

16.  Oregon Ducks (3-12)

At least the Ducks found a new uniform combination for all 15 games. One of the three simulated wins indeed came over vaunted Louisville, 72-68.

15. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (4-11)

There has to be THAT guy out there. You know, the one who went to the betting window a week ago and put a C-note down on FGCU winning the whole shebang.

After not just beating, but schooling Georgetown, dominating San Diego State was no longer a shock. In fact the Vegas line was only -7 on the Aztecs. Myself, I believe FGCU is capable of beating a few more of the other 15 schools left.

FGCU started strong in my simulation, beating Miami (who they also beat for real during this past regular season), Arizona, and Ohio State. Then they crashed back to earth. They lost the simulated game to Florida 71-62.

14. Arizona Wildcats (5-10)

The Pac-12 doesn’t get a lot of love in the Super 16, but at least the conference made a rebound in real life this year getting two teams to the second weekend.

13. Marquette Warriors (5-10)

MU is at 7-1 in the off-shore books for winning the East regional. And MU, Kansas, and Florida are the lone three schools to make each of the last three Sweet 16s.

Did my simulation factor in the distraction of Buzz Willams being linked to every high profile opening imaginable (if UCLA and Minnesota were still considered such a thing)?

12. LaSalle Explorers (6-9)

I thought the LAX would be a good candidate to finish 16th, but the Explorers slayed some giants in the simulation, including Louisville, Syracuse, and Duke. How about that trifecta of coaching egos going down?

11. Louisville Cardinals (7-8)

How about this one? The most unstoppable team of the last two weekends goes a mere 7-8 against the rest of the Sweet 16 field. I am going to call that an anomaly, as the Cardinals are ranked #1 in most re-seedings.

10. Wichita State Shockers (7-8)

How did WSU lose three times to Creighton, the team that looked absolutely awful against Duke the other night?

9. Duke Blue Devils (8-7)

So Duke really has a starter named Sulaimon? Didn’t Neil Diamond once do a song about him?

8. Florida Gators (8-7)

Seeing Billy Donovan and Tubby Smith roaming their respective sidelines Sunday, I could only think of one thing: one coach going back to the Sweet 16 and the other brushing up his resume.

7.  Ohio State Buckeyes (8-7)

We finally get to the Big Ten … you know, that awful conference Charles Barkley keeps talking about? The Buckeyes are one of the hottest teams this side of the Miami Heat, not losing since February 17.

6.  Syracuse Orange (9-6)

Whether he eventually hangs up the coaching sneakers getting to 1,000 wins or having a portion of those 1,000 wins vacated for NCAA violations, Jim Boeheim would do well in those Coors Light press conference ads.

5.  Michigan Wolverines (9-6)

One of the marquee games of the simulation had Michigan defeating Indiana 70-69. “Trey Burke, for three …  HE GOT IT, COLD BLOODED!!!!”

Sigh. We’ll get Gus back in March Madness where he belongs sooner rather than later.

4.  Miami Hurricanes (9-6)

Guess we can’t rip the Canes for losing to FGCU anymore, huh? This senior-laden squad has a tremendous shot of making it to the final weekend.

3.  Michigan State Spartans (10-5)

Yes, do not count out Tom Izzo against Louisville. If Barkley is scoring at home, that’s Big Ten teams ranked seventh, fifth, third, and…

2.  Kansas Jayhawks (11-4)

KU gets a share of the Super 16 Championship despite a loss to Wichita State and a 65-46 blowout at the hands of Louisville. In reality, there are much more questions after a weekend in which the Jayhawks were far from dominating.

1.  Indiana Hoosiers (11-4)

I still say ‘Oladipo’ sounds like somewhere I would go if I needed some home improvement supplies.

Wouldn’t it be the funniest thing ever if Ohio State/Michigan/Michigan State/Indiana all managed to win their regionals. That would finally put Charles in his place, FOREVER???

Next year, let’s have Gus Johnson call March Madness and let Barkley call soccer.

About Kurt Allen

Have written/blogged about sports since 2000, along with starting my popular Twitter feed in 2009. I also closely follow fantasy sports developments, along with events such as the NFL Draft.


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  97. Much like Condoleeza Rice having a sit-down with Sean Hannity, or John Bolton deigning to be interviewed by Pam Oshry, I am sure the President is preparing for an hour-long feature interview with Ann Coulter.-WKW

  98. Mr. Swain,Since you wrote this book based on the negative impacts of GM food, is that your real personal opinion on GM food? Do you personally think that GM food is beneficial to the world or has a negative impact as displayed in your book?Thanks,Jonas Fowler

  99. Hallo Herr Meyer,schade, dass die neue directbox noch auf sich warten lässt. Nachdem ich nun bei Googlemail (IMAP!) wie auf glühenden Kohlen sitze, wäre es toll, endlich wieder ‘umzuziehen’ und wie gewohnt ‘zu Hause’ arbeiten zu können. Ich freue mich schon sehr auf den Relaunch, vielleicht können Sie ja schon einen ungefähren Termin nennen?Viele Grüße und gutes Gelingen!

  100. Kia Ora Robb, and greetings from Gurgaon in India.When I return to NZ next month I will be looking up Murray, Kim Logan, Donald and a lot of other mountain men women. " Bring me men to match my mountains."

  101. explained that 1970’s Reggae was showing two sides to the exiles story, so too does a remix of a song show another side to the message. As they shoot guns in dancehall, the pauses and beats given to an original song is modified not to loose the message but give it room to breath and grow with its people.

  102. I am having a problem with GPS, everything else is working fine, but this morning there was an accident on the way to work, so I had to turn around and find alternate route in an unfimiliar area. Turned on GPS, and Fired up Navi, put my work address in. Then the map came up but it just hung saying “Searching for GPS”. I have been using this ROM for a couple days now, everything else appears to work fine except GPS/Navigation, which i found out the hard way this morning. Any ideas?Thanks in Advance!!!

  103. Well, I am VERY excited to see the cave scene, but I’m really looking forward to the scene where Katniss is in the tree, and asks Cata to join her. (And when Peeta stays awake all of that night)

  104. I like the helpful info you provide in your articles. I’ll bookmark your blog and check again here frequently. I’m quite certain I will learn many new stuff right here! Good luck for the next!

  105. Wahoo bargains!! I remember snaffling up a few when I lived over there.. There are a lot to be had!Nice to have friends at the charity shops! Otheres don't stand a chance with Vix on the hunt! Legendary.

  106.  Vidyut, you appear to be a very secure, spiritually connected & an industrious individual, with an uncanny sense of adventure. Job satisfaction seems to remain your Top priority. I am sure, you will go far.Best of Luck!!

  107. To solve the problem describe in the comment n°15 (written by Beginner), you just have to set the property “jasper.reports.compile.class.path” with the path where the jasperreports lib is located (\\WEB-INF\\lib\\jasperreports-0.6.8.jar for me).e.g. :System.setProperty(“jasper.reports.compile.class.path”, “\\WEB-INF\\lib\\jasperreports-0.6.8.jar”);JasperReport jasperReport = JasperCompileManager.compileReport(Configuration.getConfig(Configuration.TEMPLATE_JRXML));

  108. pessoal, baixei o jogo, so que nao to conseguindo descompactar, ta pedindo uma senha !!tentei colocar essa : SH3.isoentao começa a descompactar so que depois pede a parte 4 do jogo !! e agora ??

  109. La salade de pommes aux 2 céleris a déjà été testée, c'est un régal, et je vais en refaire bientôt. Cette nouvelle recette, me tente tout autant. Je vais finir par acheter ce livre.

  110. Free knowledge like this doesn’t just help, it promote democracy. Thank you.

  111. If you have just bought a guitar and are simply dying to play it, pick some of the easiest songs to play on guitar. Mastering the art of even playing one or two simple songs will make life thrilling and you will be eager to learn more. Before you start to learn songs make sure that you know the fundamentals. You should be able to hold the guitar properly and strum the strings.

  112. Please keep throwing these posts up they help tons.

  113. I am glad for writing to make you understand of the fabulous encounter my friend’s daughter went through going through your web page. She picked up a wide variety of pieces, including what it is like to possess an ideal giving spirit to make certain people without difficulty thoroughly grasp selected specialized issues. You really surpassed our expectations. Thanks for delivering the important, trusted, educational and even cool guidance on the topic to Tanya.

  114. So sorry about your battery – I have had that happen and is such a pain!Your cupcakes look wonderful and I bet the pecans were a nice taste with the coffee. :)

  115. Esse filme é muito ruim acreditem,como sempre george clooney só faz filme pastelão,não perca seu tempo baixando. Um filme legal que assisti a pouco tempo foi (Assassinos de aluguel) com Curtis Jackson e Robert de Niro,dialogos bem legais e estoria bem interessante. Abç

  116. Pero que lindo por favor, me gustan mucho los lugares donde hay huertas y plantaciones y a su vez están cerca del rio , porque usan sus recursos para cosechar sin usar nada de afuera yo el año pasado fui a unos que estaban situados en un lugar muy similar.

  117. Lulu comentou em 26 de maio de 2011 às 12:38. Julia, ficou linda, muito boneca, estava ansiosa para ver o manual, ficquei dodói ontem e só queria melhorar pra te ver…a LOCKA!Uma perguntinha, vi no Base aliada uma caixinha do Bathina da Benefit, estou certa? É bom mesmo?Fazia tempo que não comentava…super bjo e sucessoLulu


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