NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections: January 22nd

We’re now less than two months from Selection Sunday, so it’s time for another set of bracket projections.

I hope to start doing these weekly soon, because the landscape can change pretty quickly as conference play continues.

The projections below take into account all games played through Monday, January 21st.

Philadelphia – March 22nd/24th Kansas City – March 22nd/24th
1) Duke (16-1) 1) Kansas (16-1)
16) NC Central (11-7)/Mercer (12-8) 16) Southern (14-6)/Charleston So. (10-6)
8) Oklahoma (13-4) 8) Illinois (14-5)
9) Colorado State (15-3) 9) Pittsburgh (15-4)
San Jose – March 21st/23rd Austin – March 22nd/24th
5) Wichita State (17-2) 5) Cincinnati (16-4)
12) Middle Tennessee (16-4) 12) Indiana State (12-6)/Iowa (13-5)
4) Oregon (16-2) 4) North Carolina State (15-3)
13) Bucknell (16-3) 13) Stephen F. Austin (16-1)
Dayton – March 22nd/24th Auburn Hills – March 21st/23rd
6) San Diego State (14-4) 6) UNLV (15-4)
11) Memphis (14-3) 11) Temple (12-5)
3) Indiana (16-2) 3) Minnesota (15-3)
14) Davidson (11-7) 14) Valparaiso (15-5)
Dayton – March 22nd/24th Lexington – March 21st/23rd
7) Missouri (13-4) 7) UCLA (15-4)
10) Georgetown (13-4) 10) Oklahoma State (12-5)
2) Butler (16-2) 2) Florida (14-2)
15) Stony Brook (13-5) 15) Long Beach State (10-8)
Auburn Hills – March 21st/23rd Philadelphia – March 22nd/24th
1) Michigan (17-1) 1) Syracuse (18-1)
16) Niagara (11-8) 16) Bryant (13-4)
8) Notre Dame (15-4) 8) Mississippi (15-2)
9) Baylor (13-5) 9) Colorado (12-6)
Austin – March 22nd/24th San Jose – March 21st/23rd
5) Miami, FL (13-3) 5) Kansas State (15-2)
12) Iowa State (13-4)/Kentucky (12-5) 12) Belmont (15-4)
4) Creighton (17-2) 4) New Mexico (16-2)
13) Louisiana Tech (16-3) 13) Ohio (13-5)
Salt Lake City – March 21st/23rd Kansas City – March 22nd/24th
6) Ohio State (13-4) 6) VCU (16-3)
11) North Carolina (12-5) 11) Maryland (14-4)
3) Gonzaga (17-2) 3) Michigan State (16-3)
14) Harvard (9-6) 14) North Dakota State (16-4)
Lexington – March 21st/23rd Salt Lake City – March 21st/23rd
7) Wisconsin (13-5) 7) Marquette (13-4)
10) Boise State (13-4) 10) Wyoming (15-2)
2) Louisville (16-2) 2) Arizona (16-1)
15) Montana (12-4) 15) Northeastern (11-7)












































Last Four In

Indiana State

The Sycamores are hanging on thanks to nonconference wins over Ole Miss and Miami. Losses to Morehead State and Southern Illinois don’t help their case, but they are still just inside the RPI top 50. ISU already has lost at Creighton in the Valley, and it can’t afford to get swept by both Creighton and Wichita State.


After beating Wisconsin on Saturday, the Hawkeyes are barely in the field. They also have a win over Iowa State, but the loss at Virginia Tech looks worse by the week. Iowa has two chances to pick up a key league road win with games at Ohio State and Purdue this week.

Iowa State

The Cyclones let one slip away at Kansas but have bounced back to win three straight (albeit against some of the worst teams in the Big 12). ISU’s RPI is solid, and the win over BYU helps for bubble purposes. But the Cyclones have to start putting some meat on their profile in the Big 12, and the next chance to do that comes on Saturday against Kansas State.


The season-opening win over Maryland is UK’s only RPI top-100 victory so far, but the Wildcats have managed to maintain a respectable RPI. Outside of the home loss to Texas A&M, the Wildcats’ losses aren’t egregious, but they have to start winning games against decent opponents. Unfortunately, those are few and far between in a down SEC.

First Four Out

Saint Mary’s

The Gaels have three top-100 wins, and they just picked up a key road victory at fellow bubble-dweller BYU. They do have a couple of bad losses, and the WCC doesn’t provide many more chances to improve their profile. The good news is that their toughest remaining games are all at home.

Texas A&M

Elston Turner blew up for 40 points in a win at Kentucky, but the Aggies lost twice last week, one in blowout fashion to Florida and the other on the road at struggling Alabama. At this point, A&M has no top-50 wins, and it needs to hold serve in the SEC leading up to a key early February stretch when it hosts Kentucky, Missouri and Ole Miss in a four-game span.


Their RPI is still in the top 50, but at this point the Cougars’ best RPI wins are against Santa Clara and Tennessee State. That just isn’t going to get it done, which means BYU needs to take two of its remaining three games against Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s to move the needle.


Aside from a season-opening loss to Saint Peter’s, the Scarlet Knights don’t have a bad loss, and they’ve picked up wins over Pitt and St. John’s in Big East play. Their RPI is just inside the top 50, but the next five games are critical as they play St. John’s, at Connecticut, at Cincinnati, Louisville and Georgetown.



Here is how the bids broke out by conference:

Big Ten (8): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Big East (7): Cincinnati, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Big 12 (6): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Mountain West (6): Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Wyoming

ACC (5): Duke, Maryland, Miami (FL), North Carolina, North Carolina State

Pac-12 (4): Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, UCLA

SEC (4): Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri

Atlantic 10 (3): Butler, Temple, VCU

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Indiana State, Wichita State

America East: Stony Brook

Atlantic Sun: Mercer

Big Sky: Montana

Big South: Charleston Southern

Big West: Long Beach State

Colonial: Northeastern

Conference USA: Memphis

Horizon: Valparaiso

Ivy: Harvard

MAAC: Niagara

MAC: Ohio

MEAC: North Carolina Central

Northeast: Bryant

Ohio Valley: Belmont

Patriot: Bucknell

Southern: Davidson

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

Summit: North Dakota State

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee

SWAC: Southern

WAC: Louisiana Tech

West Coast: Gonzaga


Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops.

About Andy Bottoms

While Andy was born and raised in Indiana, he would like to point out that he grew up shooting hoops in his driveway and not against the side of a barn like you see in all the March Madness promos or in the middle of a field like Jimmy Chitwood. Andy ranks among the top bracketologists according to the Bracket Matrix and has provided his projections to Fox Sports for the past three seasons. When not compiling excuses for missing work during the NCAA Tournament, Andy enjoys spending time with his wife and two daughters. He is a proud IU graduate and co-hosts The Assembly Call postgame show following every IU game. Twitter: @AndyBottoms


  1. Dave / New Mexico says:

    As much as I hate to say it…Unless UK wins the SEC Tourney, looks like they are OUT

    • Andy Bottoms says:

      After last night, UK is in some serious trouble. At this point they have four games left that might move the needle – @ Ole Miss, @ Florida, Missouri, and Florida at home. Probably have to go 3-1 in those at a minimum and avoid other slip-ups.

  2. UK has at least 5 more losses in their pocket , they are NIT bound . Wow how that hurts to say .

  3. Louisville just lost to Villanova so with 3 loses they should be a 3 seed now. AZ will be a one seed. Look at the RPI. AZ is 2nd. Looks like Yardbarker is becoming like ESPN. Bottoms is picking at the bottom.

    • Andy Bottoms says:

      Obviously these can become outdated fairly quickly, but the projections above are through Monday’s games and don’t reflect last night’s Louisville loss.

      As to your other point, I can’t deny the RPI argument, but I try to factor in more than just that when I do these. They lost what I would call their only tough road game to date, but they do have five Top 100 wins. But outside of the Florida game (which was a great comeback), they beat Miami without Reggie Johnson, SDSU (thanks to a huge defensive play at the end which they deserve credit for), Southern Miss who is vastly overrated in the RPI, and Colorado on a very controversial ending. So when I merge the numbers with the “eye test,” they were fifth in my S-Curve.

      And well played on the Bottoms joke, never heard those before.

  4. Eric Edmonds says:

    How can Indiana not be a 2 seed never being ranked under 7th

    • Andy Bottoms says:

      At least since I am an IU grad, I am not being accused of being biased toward the Hoosiers.

      At any rate, the rankings have nothing to do with what the selection committee will do. The reality is that IU has a poor non-conf strength of schedule and has one win over a team in the RPI Top 30. Outside of the Minnesota game, there isn’t really a marquee win to hang their hat on. For me, it came down to IU and Butler for the last 2 seed. Butler has more Top 50 wins, more Top 100 wins, and a head-to-head win over IU.

  5. AJ Kaufman says:

    Good call on ISU. After they beat Ole Miss & Miami, I said that could help them if on the bubble. I was at the game they lost in Omaha to CU. Sycamore played with them for 35 minutes. Good squad.

  6. Dave / New Mexico says:

    SEC could be the PAC-12 of 2013…reckon?

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  295. I like that in your reflection you mentioned how you personally have experienced what historians are warned about, as far as looking through a modern lens. It is very easy for us to read about past historians passing judgement or defaming past societies, but often forget that we must be wary not to fall prey to the same bias and prejudice.

  296. This is awsome because it’s a clear contrast to Devil May Cry that have awsome graphics but needs no skill to master the gameplay (wich makes it boring,square square square)

  297. ciao, ieri a scuola durante l’ora di taliano si è aperto un dibattito sulla strumentalizzazione della donna cosi la nostra prof.ssa ci ha consigliato di visitare questa sito per avere piu informazioni e renderci conto di quanto in effetti sia grave la situazione della donna.e aveva ragione perchè la maggior parte delle volte sono le ragazze stesse che si offrono e aspirano ad arrivare a diventare veline letterine. a essere considerate oggetti.e veramente svilente e dobbiamo lottare per far si che le cose cambino.

  298. Wowza, problem solved like it never happened.

  299. Your answer was just what I needed. It’s made my day!

  300. ai vcs conseguiram baixar??? eu naum consegui tentei as duas opções e do 4shared e naum conseguia baixar porque falava que o link naum era valido e naum tinha como baixar nada.

  301. #90 ChiFi Pulled the trigger today to sweep 2/3rds of my bond fund into stable value. My company 401 does not have that many options. At this point I’m frozen, no options look good.

  302. Mark… listen to me. Take all of the 'not prepared'-ness you have been.. for EVERYTHING you've done so far…. add it all together, mix in a huge dash of 'NOT PREPARED' and you still are no where near how unprepared you are for the next two days.

  303. Better to get it right than to rush it! Super excited to see it when it’s ready! I’m totally loving the artwork – really fun! You shouldn’t feel bad for not hitting the deadline, this almost always happens when creative minds are at work!

  304. Shiver me timbers, them’s some great information.

  305. Glad I’ve finally found something I agree with!

  306. Does your site have a contact page? I’m having problems locating it but, I’d like to send you an email. I’ve got some ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great blog and I look forward to seeing it grow over time.

  307. Kedves Moha!Én most szeretnék rendelni jövÅ‘re – de komolyan, írd fel magadnak (…és nekem) – egy ilyet, de kék- ezüstben és persze idÅ‘ben, most nagyon lecsúsztam róla!!

  308. Avez vous déjà lu le livre 5 love languages? Jpense que ca vous aiderais a comprendre pourquoi vous avez l’impression d’être plus romantique que le gars ou la fille avec qui vous êtes.

  309. Was es nicht alles für Markennamen gibt…Aber mal eine andere Frage, in Sachen deutsche Babies undso, oder genauer: Geburtsanzeige: Musstet ihr eure Dokumente legalisieren lassen? Und noch was! Geht das mit Englischen Urkunden wirklich gut? (bzw. habt ihr englische Urkunden benutzt/benutzen können? Da spart man sich ja eine Menge Geld…)

  310. les tarifs sont elevés mais moi qui est des cheveux rebelle je joue avec un jour je dompte au lisseur et un jour j’accentue mes boucles que la le lissage c’est radical et dur dans le temps.

  311. I saw that episode! Sorry the restaurant was only so-so. It sounds pretty unique though – I've never seen a carrot dog before!My puppers eats Science Diet Nature's Best!

  312. The eagerness of the end product got in the way!It’s not difficult at all to remove and snap a pic or two. A write up could still be possible, just not a pic for each step.I also should have mentioned that it is wired to the key switch power of the head unit, so it’s off when the vehicle is off.

  313. a parte che è dura che gli americani guadagnino Euro, anche se penso che di sti tempi sarebbero contenti secondo me l’approccio americano è diverso dal nostro… però è solo una mia impressione.In Veneto si dice “Te pianzi el morto pa incu*are el vivo!”

  314. Reformat your phone, that’ll do the trick. If you’re using the memory card of the phone, see if it’s not corrupted. The last time I got an operation failed error on my phone, it had a trojan virus, so I had to reformat it.//

  315. Lovely curve in the structure and how it towers above the trees and river. The people certainly give a sense of height. And in response to your question, yes I have a bit of fear of heights, and the older I get the more pronounced my vertigo gets!

  316. Geisha: Sí, recuerdo haberte puesto un par de veces (o quizás muchas) el Dynamo. Pero si mi entusiasmo por Soda en ese momento era grande, el de tu amiga sin swing era una obsesión (como lo haz mencionado). Creo que en estos casos un poco más de sutilieza es lo mejor.Saludos flaquita, muchas gracias por tu comentario.

  317. Wonderful blog! I found it while searching on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Thank you

  318. I want to move to Alaska. How do I go about doing this? How much money should I have saved up before attempting to do so? I know I need to have a job and a living arrangement set up, but what about all my stuff? Just replace it or get new stuff? Should I get rid of my car and just wait to get a new one? So many question, I can’t think of everything I need to know. Please help.

  319. Hi Süße!Zu deiner Tochter kannst du sagen: klasse Coloration. Aber auch du hast wieder mal hervorragende Arbeit geleistet: die vielen Schneeflöckchen, die Rentiere, die Bommelbordüre, der Glitzer und die Halbperlen – alles passt zusammen!Und die Schneeflocke von Bild 7 ist von Cuttlebug, da sind mehrere auf einer Stanzplatte (hab ich…)Wünsche euch noch einen schönen Sonntag!!!GLG Katrin

  320. Slam dunkin like Shaquille O’Neal, if he wrote informative articles.

  321. Umm.. I am a CANADIAN. Born in CANADA. Legally living in CANADA. Would you like a map. Stupid. I’m not American so enough with your stupid assumptions.STEP YOUR COOKIES UP AND LISTEN TO REAL MUSIC. If you don’t know who sweet rush then the universe dont know who u are. THEY HAVE A SINGLE WITH AKON. THEY SING IN ENGLISH, OBVIOUSLY. What the hell you uneducated weirdo, Did you think they sang in chinese?Guess what, IM SICK OF YOU TOONow go pat your weave

  322. Es una gran alegría, no sólo porque me encanta Madoka (aunque me parece un poco estafa con la capacidad de un Bluray que lo saquen en varios volúmenes); sino también porque, como muchos comentan, podría ser el principio de empezar a sacar animes modernos (no cuenta lo de las pelis de Evan, que ya tiene una fanbase que lo compra fijo); me gusta mucho la idea y podría significar que viéramos más apuestas así en el futuro. ¡¡Y sale este mismo año!!Venga, próximas licencias: espero que las pelis de Berserk XD.

  323. My favorite transitional pieces are cute flowy tops over jeans, cause you can throw bold colored cardigans over them & be set. Also, lightweight scarves! Just went through all my scarves & am ready for cold weather!! PS: you’re the absolute cutest. Always are. xo

  324. I went to tons of links before this, what was I thinking?

  325. My guinea pigs are rather “chatty,” especially whenever I open the refrigerator. They were initially in our bedroom, which was bad in the beginning. They were young and working out their pecking order and around 3am, without fail, would get into it complete with very high-pitched shrieking which sounded like they were killing each other. They don’t really do that anymore, but can be a little active and noisy at night.

  326. Nexus devices are extremely easy to root/unroot and install any custom or perhaps stock ROM. If anyone is looking to revert back to 4.1.2, this would be your best option. The developer and community support (xda developers for example) provide great resources made for any nexus device

  327. It was dark when I woke. This is a ray of sunshine.

  328. When animal activists talk of suffering, they should be made to watch people with motor neurone disease during their last months. My brother-in-law lived for just over a year after his diagnosis and I only hope that research on animals comes up with a cure for this dreadful disease.I only hope none of these people ever have to suffer as he did.

  329. Go for it! Det kan sku ikke passe, at de skal krænke vores privatliv/rettigheder på den måde!Set den shop op, og jeg skal nok købe en magnet til min og forældrenes bil

  330. This was great, Mike…thanks! I find it fascinating how Nancy really inspires some of the great modern cartoonists: dig also Mark Newgarden’s “how to read nancy”:

  331. ensure you that the article you bought…has also been sold 100′s of others. all they are doing is modifying the article somewhat and put in a different one understands what your business is all about more than you. if you’re serious and proficient at what you…

  332. I had no idea how to approach this before-now I’m locked and loaded.

  333. LOL…. Shark Week here, too. I’ve done poorly with diet the last few weeks… among other sins, I was eaten by two boxes of Saltines. But I was feeling sickly yesterday and the day before, ate very little, and today find myself back to homeostasis minus 1.5 pounds. Eating chicken breast right now. Hope to get back on track. Shark Week is hard, though!

  334. is this for real–a gay terrorist?…From Americans for Truth about Homosexuality.Personally, I think this isn’t that much different than this.I actually find what is acceptable in their culture very disturbing…not to mention honor killings, and their treatment of women in…

  335. Well as a lay man, what I understand is that the carbon in the air does not let sunlight escape once it enters the atmosphere. So, because carbon holds on to sunlight, it increases the atmospheric temperature. At the same time too much carbon blocks sunlight, and so it brings about a dimming phenomena.

  336. Moin Moin,das Rezept klingt wirklich lecker. Wie lange hält sich der Ketchup etwa im Kühlschrank? Viele Grüße

  337. It’s interesting how the pacific coast of the Americas extends west rather than north. Was that for the convenience of the map maker? … or a confusion of navigation ? Anyway, keep them comming … i made the map my picture of the day. Incidentally is not at blogspot but rather at fastblogit.

  338. Most help articles on the web are inaccurate or incoherent. Not this!

  339. Ciao Giulia, oggi e8 il mio primo Blog-compleanno e me ne stavo quasi dimenticando…., a priposoto di tempo e di impegni…Io riesco a dedicarmi al blog dalle 21 fino a mezzanotte inoltrata. Di giorno si resta troppo presi da mille cose, anche se io ora sono casalinga e faccio la nonna… Ti capisco perfettamente.Assaggerf2 pure il tuo te speziato, deve essere particolare !!!Un bacio e complimenti anche per la bella foto.Virginia

  340. We’re a bunch of volunteers and starting a brand new scheme in our community. Your site provided us with valuable info to paintings on. You have performed a formidable task and our whole group shall be thankful to you.

  341. Articles like this make life so much simpler.

  342. kImmy, to sit there all day thinking about what goes between my legs and my crack line is very unhealthy for you. And while your slutty Dizzy D. is trying to getting pregnant every chance she got and collecting child support from all here exes, other intelligent women are more responsible and have far more important thing to do than just having babies. Your mafia boss is pissing off cause Loretta is smarter and can do a better job than he can. Van Tran = Mafia gangVan Tran = BAD

  343. thanks, miggs. that raymond guy is either hilariously stupid or blinded by his zealotry.either he is completely oblivious to the ideas behind that ““Never use the terms “jihadist” or “mujahideen” in conversation to describe the terrorists. A mujahed, a holy warrior, is a positive characterization in the context of a just war. In Arabic, jihad means “striving in the path of God” and is used in many contexts beyond warfare. Calling our enemies jihadis and their movement a global jihad unintentionally legitimizes their actions [emphasis added].“““I suspect that it’s both……

  344. Fell out of bed feeling down. This has brightened my day!

  345. E já agora também me cabe agradecer ao autor deste Blog as "maravilhosas!" fotos publicadas que tantas recordações me trás. Bem haja e continue pois nós adoramos.Bom ano de 2012Eduardo Jorge

  346. Thank You Lawrence. You are 100% "on-the-mark". May we, buy the power of the Holy Spirit, continue to seek God's approval rather than to covet man's approval. Romans 6:23

  347. Hallelujah! I needed this-you’re my savior.

  348. It would seem that SBY although starting off talking about terrorists in his response to the bombings also seemed to make a lot of noise about domestic politics and the recent election…The mind boggles.

  349. Hoy has dado en el clavo en mi corazón. Una de las fotos más bonitas que he visto ultimamente.Las margaritas son mis flores favoritas y adoro las cajitas de metal…En fín…¡¡¡precioso!!!Gracias, un besote y feliz jueves,

  350. You make a really good point John, the hypocrisy is truly sickening where they will attack companies for selling to children and attack advertising companies using marketing strategies to sell these products while using more or less the very same tactics to sell their own ugly product to children.When I say these people are guilty of nothing less than child abuse I really mean it.   0 likes

  351. I don’t have a septum, but a heart shaped uterus. I’ve had one m/c and one birth at 37 weeks. The heart shaped uterus was found during a lap to try and diagnose secondary IF. My question is if progesterone supplementation will help protect a pregnancy that implants on the dip until the placenta takes over? I’ve asked my RE and he didn’t really answer me. I’m having a hard time finding research and don’t want to risk a pregnancy that has taken two years to achieve.

  352. Feb29 Exista femei puternice, sunt insa mai greu de gasit.. Fara indoiala dvs. sunteti una dintre ele, felicitari pt. ce ati realizat pana acum.Cami

  353. That Microsoft would admit it is the part I find shocking. Microsoft has always played dirty, but they always denied their actions. I guess things are changing at Microsoft.

  354. We will not consider ourselves greater than others nor will we be jealous of other’s portion. When we see the Body, we will realize we have a function which no one can replace – we will honor our portion and

  355. dit :Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.

  356. Hi! Someone at my Myspace community contributed this site here so that I came to take a look. I definitely like this article. I am bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Brilliant blog and outstanding style and design.

  357. “Maine bola na – it is what Julie and FNG call each other 0- kya mushkil hai. Now we have some self-anointed names for them.”What will our vigilant moderator do with this comment now?

  358. Je ne sais ni veux savoir ce qu’Hitler pense de la délocalisation de Jallatte.Ce dont on peut être certain, c’est que les propos de Ml et Màc ne sont pas le reflet de l’éducation nationale en France. Ca se saurait.

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