Why Josh Hamilton May Be a Downgrade For The Angels

You probably think I’m crazy don’t you?

Or worse, you think I’m going to make some sort of tasteless assumption that Josh Hamilton going to LA will lead him back to his past addictions.

So how on Earth can Josh Hamilton – the 2010 AL MVP; the first free agent coming off a 40-HR, 120-RBI season since Alex Rodriguez; the man with talent seemingly on loan from God – be a downgrade for the Angels?

Because I’m evaluating this from a purely logical standpoint.

josh-hamilton-angels

The LA Angels obviously do not have a worse roster today than they did Thursday morning. As I have not been up all night drinking paint thinner, I would never make that argument.

My argument is that real baseball games aren’t won with fantasy stats. And while the Angels spent all this money on Josh Hamilton, they could have kept Torii Hunter for a fraction of the price and a similar return.

Was Torii Hunter Actually a Better Fit?

Torii Hunter was really good in 2012.

Despite missing time, and having to deal with mental duress due to his son’s arrest this past season, Hunter had a 2012 OPS+ of 132. Josh Hamilton’s was 139. When you take into account other intangibles, such as defense and how they hit in high leverage situations, Hunter contributed a significantly higher Win Probability Added (3.40) than Hamilton (2.50).

All this, despite Hamilton have a better team around him, a more favorable spot in the lineup, and playing in eight more games than Hunter.

Hunter also filled a bigger need in LA from an offensive standpoint. He was their no. 2 hitter behind AL Rookie of the Year Mike Trout. Hamilton will be placed in either the 3rd or 4th spot (playing musical chairs with Albert Pujols), leaving a hole behind Trout that looks to be best filled by Alberto Callaspo, who does not have the ideal skill set for a no. 2 hitter like Hunter had.

Hamilton’s Numbers Suggest Impending Decline

Hamilton has all the talent in the world. He posts really sexy superficial stats like Batting Average, Home Runs and RBI. Yet he also is showing signs of declining, which as an injury-prone 31-year old is very logical.

The big red flag is his contact rate. He struck out in a quarter (25.5%) of his plate appearances last year and posted a contact rate of only 65%. To put that in to context, Adam Dunn has NEVER posted a contact rate that low.

Hamilton is not a very patient hitter either. He drew only 60 walks over 636 plate appearances. Those numbers get worse when you consider 13 of those were intentional walks. So yes, over 20% of Hamilton’s walks are a result of opponent fear, not his patience.

Hamilton’s explosive 43 home run season too seems to be a bit of an outlier. His Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio (HR/FB) was 25.6%. That raised his career average to 19.4%. If he’s healthy enough for another 630PA season (which is highly doubtful), the Angels are more likely looking at a 35 home run season.

I don’t really want to take the fun out of this signing. In fact, I am a Josh Hamilton fan, and hope he, Trout, and Pujols put on an amazing display next season.

Hamilton is a truly rare talent who can do things that are impossible for 99% of major leaguers. But those great moments are not what make a consistent, all-around, 162-game contribution. They just make it memorable.

The Big Picture

I want the Josh Hamilton Experience in LA to be a good one. But it would be irresponsible to evaluate this signing with my heart.

The stone cold logical reality is that all indications point to Hamilton providing similar value as the much cheaper Torii Hunter.

Hamilton’s skill set appears to be trending downward, whereas the older Hunter has been a mark of consistency. Hunter also filled a more useful role with the team, playing stronger defense while filling the no. 2 hole.

Hamilton will make headlines and sell jerseys, no question. And he’ll have some moments that leave mouths agape. But will he fit in the lineup as well as Hunter? And what will Hamilton’s impact be on the complicated chemistry that makes a baseball team a winner or a loser over the long, hot summer?

I hope this works out, but when you look at the larger picture and the deeper numbers involved, the Angels do not look to be a better team with Hamilton over Hunter.



About Pat Suley

Comments

  1. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  2. This information is amazing. I will recommend it to my son and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  3. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  4. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  5. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  6. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  7. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  8. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  9. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  10. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  11. Hey! Your website is amazing <3 I will suggest it to my son and anyone that could be attracted to this topic. Great work girls <3

  12. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  13. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  14. This is nice! This site is amazing!! I will recommend it to my daugther and anybody that could be enticed by this subject. Great work girls <3

  15. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  16. Wow! This information is astounding! I will recommend it to my friends and any person that could be interested in this topic. Great work girls!!

  17. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  18. Wow! Your site is great <3 I will recommend it to my son and any person that could be drwn to this object. Great work girls ;)

  19. Hi, i think that i saw you visited my web site thus i came to “return the favor”.I am trying to find things to enhance my web site!I
    suppose its ok to use a few of your ideas!!

  20. I have been examinating out some of your articles and it’s pretty nice stuff.
    I will make sure to bookmark your blog.

  21. I pay a visit every day a few web pages and information sites
    to read articles or reviews, but this website gives quality based
    posts.

  22. Hey! Your website is great. I will suggest it to my brother and anybody that could be drwn to this matter. Great work girls ;)

  23. This website is amazing. I will tell about it to my friends and anybody that could be interested in this subject. Great work guys!

  24. Hi! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a group of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche.

    Your blog provided us beneficial information to work on. You have
    done a wonderful job!

  25. Every weekend i used to go to see this website, because i want enjoyment, for the reason that this this site conations truly pleasant funny data too.

  26. Lovely blog! I am loving it!! Will come back again. I am taking your feeds also

  27. Hey just wanted to give you a quick heads up.
    The words in your content seem to be running off the screen in Chrome.
    I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with web browser compatibility
    but I figured I’d post to let you know. The style and
    design look great though! Hope you get the issue resolved soon. Thanks

  28. I am in fact thankful to the holder of this website who
    has shared this enormous article at at this time.

  29. I appreciate, lead to I discovered exactly what I
    was taking a look for. You’ve ended my 4 day long hunt!

    God Bless you man. Have a great day. Bye

  30. Fastidious respond in return of this question with genuine arguments and
    telling all about that.

  31. Hello to every body, it’s my first pay a visit of this website;
    this website contains awesome and actually good information in support of visitors.

  32. Hi Dear, are you really visiting this web page regularly,
    if so after that you will without doubt get good know-how.

  33. Excellent items from you, man. I’ve be mindful your stuff previous to and you’re just
    too wonderful. I really like what you have obtained right here, certainly like what you’re saying and the best way through which you say it.
    You’re making it enjoyable and you continue to take care of to stay
    it sensible. I cant wait to read much more
    from you. This is actually a terrific site.

  34. I have been surfing on-line greater than 3 hours as of late, but I by no means discovered any fascinating article like yours.
    It’s lovely worth enough for me. In my view, if all webmasters and bloggers made
    good content material as you did, the web might be a lot more useful than ever before.

  35. There is clearly a bunch to realize about this.
    I suppose you made some good points in features also.

  36. Wow, superb blog layout! How long have you been blogging for?
    you make blogging look easy. The overall look of your website is wonderful,
    let alone the content!

  37. I like this weblog very much, Its a real nice post to read and obtain information.

  38. What a material of un-ambiguity and preserveness of valuable familiarity regarding unexpected feelings.

  39. This is very interesting, You’re a very skilled blogger.
    I’ve joined your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your magnificent post.
    Also, I have shared your web site in my social
    networks!

  40. I blog often and I seriously appreciate your information. The article has really peaked my interest.

    I will take a note of your site and keep checking for new details about once a week.
    I opted in for your Feed as well.

  41. You are a very smart person!

  42. What’s Going down i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I have found It positively useful and it has helped me out loads.
    I am hoping to give a contribution & assist different customers like its helped me.
    Great job.

  43. I needed to write you the very small observation so as to thank you so much once again regarding the breathtaking tips you’ve featured here.
    This has been certainly wonderfully open-handed of people like
    you to supply unreservedly precisely what a number of people would have sold for an ebook to make some money for their own end, chiefly considering that you might well
    have done it if you desired. The suggestions likewise served to become good way
    to be certain that other people have a similar desire
    just like my personal own to find out significantly more pertaining to this problem.
    I think there are millions of more enjoyable periods up front for individuals that browse through your blog.

  44. Hi there would you mind letting me know which web host you’re using?
    I’ve loaded your blog in 3 different web browsers and I must say this blog
    loads a lot faster then most. Can you suggest a good web hosting provider at a reasonable price?

    Cheers, I appreciate it!

  45. As the admin of this site is working, no question very shortly it will be
    famous, due to its feature contents.

  46. Excellent article. Keep posting such kind of info on your page.
    Im really impressed by your blog.[X-N-E-W-L-I-N-S-P-I-N-X]Hey
    there, You have performed an excellent job. I will definitely digg it and for my part suggest to my friends.

    I am confident they will be benefited from this site.

  47. Very energetic article, I enjoyed that bit. Will there
    be a part 2?

  48. Awsome blog! I am loving it!! Will come back again. I am bookmarking your feeds also

  49. I’m not that much of a online reader to be honest but your sites really nice, keep it up!
    I’ll go ahead and bookmark your website to come back later.
    All the best

  50. Wow that was strange. I just wrote an extremely long comment but after I
    clicked submit my comment didn’t appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over
    again. Anyways, just wanted to say great blog!

  51. Hey just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you
    know a few of the pictures aren’t loading properly. I’m
    not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried
    it in two different browsers and both show the same outcome.

  52. I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website
    yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you?

    Plz reply as I’m looking to construct my own blog and would like to know where u got this from.
    kudos

  53. Heya i’m for the first time here. I found this board and I
    find It really useful & it helped me out a lot. I hope to give something back and aid others like you helped me.

  54. Nice post. I was checking constantly this weblog and I am inspired!
    Extremely helpful info specially the remaining part :) I care for such info much.

    I was looking for this particular information for a long time.
    Thanks and good luck.

  55. Wonderful beat ! I wish to apprentice even as you amend your web site,
    how can i subscribe for a blog website? The account aided me a acceptable deal.
    I were a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast
    provided shiny clear concept

  56. I like it when folks get together and share ideas. Great
    site, continue the good work! http://bing.org

  57. Hello would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re using?
    I’m looking to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a
    tough time deciding between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.
    The reason I ask is because your design and style seems
    different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique.
    P.S Sorry for getting off-topic but I had
    to ask!

  58. I loved as much as you’ll receive carried out right here.
    The sketch is tasteful, your authored subject matter
    stylish. nonetheless, you command get bought an edginess over that you wish be delivering the following.
    unwell unquestionably come more formerly again since exactly the same nearly very often inside case you shield
    this increase.

  59. I do believe all the ideas you’ve introduced for your
    post. They are really convincing and will certainly
    work. Nonetheless, the posts are too quick for newbies.

    May just you please lengthen them a bit from subsequent time?
    Thank you for the post.

  60. Nice replies in return of this question with real arguments and describing all on the topic of that.

  61. Hi everyone, it’s my first pay a quick visit at this site,
    and article is truly fruitful in favor of me, keep up posting these content.

  62. I do believe all the concepts you have presented on your
    post. They are really convincing and can definitely work.

    Nonetheless, the posts are too quick for starters.

    Could you please lengthen them a little from next time?
    Thank you for the post.

  63. Have you ever thought about adding a little bit
    more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and
    everything. However just imagine if you added some great graphics or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”!

    Your content is excellent but with pics and videos, this site could undeniably
    be one of the best in its niche. Great blog!

  64. Great goods from you, man. I have take note your stuff prior to and you’re simply extremely
    excellent. I actually like what you’ve bought here,
    really like what you are stating and the way in which in which you assert it.

    You’re making it enjoyable and you still take care of to stay it sensible.
    I can’t wait to read far more from you.
    That is actually a wonderful site.

  65. Hi there, after reading this amazing article i am also cheerful to share my familiarity
    here with colleagues.

  66. Thank you for the good writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it.
    Look advanced to more added agreeable from you! However, how could we communicate?

  67. Ridiculous quest there. What occurred after? Take care!

  68. Unquestionably believe that which you said.
    Your favorite justification appeared to be on the internet the
    simplest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while
    people consider worries that they just don’t know about.
    You managed to hit the nail upon the top and defined out
    the whole thing without having side-effects , people can take
    a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks

  69. hello there and thank you for your info – I have definitely picked up something new from right here.
    I did however expertise several technical issues using this website, since I
    experienced to reload the website a lot of times previous
    to I could get it to load correctly. I had been wondering if your web hosting is OK?
    Not that I’m complaining, but slow loading instances times will often affect your placement in google and could damage your quality score if advertising and marketing with Adwords.
    Anyway I am adding this RSS to my email and could look out for a lot
    more of your respective exciting content. Make
    sure you update this again very soon.

  70. It’s awesome to pay a quick visit this site and reading the views of all mates
    concerning this paragraph, while I am also eager of getting familiarity.

  71. Some genuinely interesting information, well written and broadly speaking user
    pleasant.

  72. Yeah bookmaking this wasn’t a bad idea. Great post!

  73. Great I must certainly pronounce, amazed with your site. I had no trouble navigating throughand also related info ended
    up being truly easy to access.

  74. This is quite interesting, You’re an extremely skilled blogger.

    I have joined your feed and look forward to reading
    more of your superb post. Also, I have shared your website in my social networks!

  75. I am often to blogging for cash and i truly delight in your written content.
    The post has actually speaks my interest. I’m going to bookmark
    your site as well as keep checking for brand new information.

  76. Very rapidly this website will be famous among all blogging viewers, due to it’s good
    articles

  77. I’ve been absent for a while, however I remember why I
    used to love this site. Thank you, I will try and check back more often.
    Fantastic posts btw.

  78. Some truly quality blogs on this site, stored to my bookmarks.

  79. Ahaa, its pleasant discussion regarding this piece of writing here at this weblog, I
    have read all that, so at this time me also commenting at
    this place.

  80. Thanks for finally writing about >Why Josh Hamilton May
    Be a Downgrade For The Angels <Liked it!

  81. Hello, after reading this awesome piece of writing i am
    as well happy to share my know-how here with friends.

  82. Hey! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could locate a captcha plugin for
    my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as
    yours and I’m having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!

  83. Nice answer back in return of this issue with firm arguments and telling the whole thing about that.

  84. We are a group of volunteers and opening a brand
    new scheme in our community. Your website offered
    us with helpful info to work on. You’ve done an impressive job
    and our entire community shall be grateful to you.

  85. When some one searches for his necessary thing, so he/she needs to
    be available that in detail, therefore that thing is maintained
    over here.

  86. Excellent items from you, man. I have be mindful your stuff
    prior to and you’re simply too fantastic. I really like what you have obtained
    right here, really like what you are saying and the best way during which you
    assert it. You make it entertaining and you continue to care for to keep it sensible.
    I can not wait to read much more from you. This is really a great web site.

  87. Hi there, just became aware of your blog through Google, and
    found that it’s truly informative. I’m going to watch out for brussels.
    I will be grateful if you continue this in future.
    Many people will be benefited from your writing.
    Cheers!

  88. Your style is unique in comparison to other folks I have
    read stuff from. I appreciate you for posting when you’ve got the opportunity, Guess I’ll
    just bookmark this page.

  89. Thank you for the good writeup. It in fact was a amusement
    account it. Look advanced to more added agreeable from you!
    By the way, how could we communicate?

  90. certainly like your web-site however you have
    to check the spelling on quite a few of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling issues and I find it very bothersome to tell the reality however I’ll surely come back again.

  91. I enjoy what you guys are usually up too. This kind of clever work and exposure!
    Keep up the very good works guys I’ve added you guys to my blogroll.

  92. Very useful blog. i will follow this blog. continue the good work.

  93. This website is my inspiration, very outstanding design as well
    as perfect articles or blog posts.

  94. I really like your article. It’s obvious you have lots of knowledge on this topic.
    Your points are well made and relatable. Thanks for writing engaging and useful material.

  95. I believe this is one of the most significant information for me.
    And i am happy studying your article. However wanna commentary on some general issues,
    The website style is great, the articles is in point of fact
    great : D. Good activity, cheers

  96. We absolutely love your blog and find many of your post’s
    to be what precisely I’m looking for. Do you offer guest
    writers to write content available for you? I wouldn’t mind writing a
    post or elaborating on a number of the subjects you write concerning here.
    Again, awesome weblog!

  97. I enjoy this article, I am a huge fan of this website and I would want to kept
    updated.

  98. Well written article. It will be useful to anybody, which includes me.
    Continue the good work. I cannot wait to read more posts.

  99. Sometimes its a pain in the ass to read what blog owners wrote
    however this site is really remarkable and I really treasure your good article,
    Great post.

  100. I got this web page from my friend who informed me on the topic of this web site and at the moment
    this time I am visiting this site and reading very informative articles here.

  101. Great post. I used to be checking continuously this
    blog and I am impressed! Very useful information particularly the last section :) I care for such info a lot.
    I used to be seeking this certain information for a very long
    time. Thanks and good luck.

  102. It’s an awesome article in favor of all the internet viewers; they will take benefit from it I am sure.

  103. Your mode of describing all in this article
    is genuinely fastidious, every one be able to effortlessly know it,
    Thanks a lot.

  104. Thanks for the good writeup. It actually was a leisure account it.
    Look complex to more delivered agreeable from you! However, how can we communicate?

  105. Does your website have a contact page? I’m having trouble locating it but,
    I’d like to shoot you an e-mail. I’ve got some
    suggestions for your blog you might be interested in hearing.
    Either way, great website and I look forward to seeing it develop over time.

Speak Your Mind