MSF and ProComputerGambler.com continue to bring The Old Computer’s take on the biggest games in the NFL this season.
Thursday’s NFL Network game has the Bears at the Packers in an 8:30 PM EST start.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Game Info
- Bears-Packers Date: Thursday, September 12
- Bears-Packers Kickoff Time: 8:20 PM
- Bears-Packers TV Network: NFL Network
- Bears-Packers Point Spread: Packers -4.5
- Bears-Packers Over-Under Odds: 51
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Computer Analysis
The Old Computer sees it break down like this:
The Packers are 15-8-0 Straight Up (SU) and 15-7-1 Against the Spread (ATS) against the Bears since 2001. Translation: Pack Eat Bears.
That’s 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS since 2001 as regular home favorites -4 to -7. More translation: Don’t look for the cheese in Wisconsin – Pack will eat you.
Last week the Bears blew out Luck and the Colts by 20 points. However, The Colts had this one (+10) covered nicely (down just 3 points (17-14) with 5:32 left in the first half and even initially had the lead.
Are the Bears that good? Possibly. But that last game shouldn’t have been a blowout, and without a doubt the somewhat unrealistic blowout is keeping this line fair for a bet on a home favorite. The “Luck” was on the Bears side last week after the first half.
Since 2004, teams that forced no turnovers in their last game are 120-66-3 ATS (64.5%) versus a team that just forced 3 or more.
As much as we are led to believe that turnovers are the will of the defense, they are by and large luck, which the public overreacts to in relation to the gambling spread. Meanwhile, a team becomes inclined to kick it into gear 110% after turnovers don’t go their way.
We like the line at home, which looks like one many will salivate over because “The Pack never lose at home.” And since they lost last week, there will be plenty o’ $$$ on the Pack winning this game. As much as we tend to pick on public opinion, since they do poorly in the long run, they do occasionally get it right. But we’re also not thrilled at laying the points (giving up 4.5) because of how well the Bears played last game.
Thus, we will go with something a little more in our favor, which is the Teaser.
The Teaser allows you to “buy” points on the sides that you like. You gain a bit more edge but lose odds. Typically, Teasers are played for anywhere from 2-8 games, and are teased from anywhere between 6-10 points. We will choose to “connect” the game, making 2 plays that pay what 1 normally pays ($11 to return $21), however we will give ourselves 6 extra points to work with.
We will play the UNDER 57 points along with Green Bay, and figure if their defense can hold the Bears on occasion, the Bears defense is good enough to not let this game turn into a shootout (but of course allow enough points to lose the game outright.)
The Computer Projection:
- ‘Da’ Pack 27 | ‘Da’ Bearz 17