English Premier League Fixtures and Predictions, Round 2

Before we get to this week’s fixtures and predictions, a few words on the transfer system, which many new American soccer fans may not fully understand.

Transfer Window Nearing End

World soccer is unlike traditional North American major sports in that there is no such thing as a “trade market.”

For example, Arsenal could not have traded Robin Van Persie to Manchester United last week for a couple of current starters and a number of prospects out of the club’s developmental system. Nor will you see a complicated trade involving four teams like recently seen with Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum in the NBA.

What soccer does have is a transfer system (you can read the Wikipedia definition here). Think of it as sort of a stock market, where the dynamics of who may be a buyer or a seller are very similar to what you may see in other sports.

All players are under contracts to varying lengths, but players with expiring contracts can force the hand of the club by announcing that they are not planning on a contract extension. That is what Robin Van Persie indicated in the offseason.

With RVP at the peak of his career, his value will never be higher, and transfers are not limited to the EPL. Players can be sold to any team in Europe, or the world for that matter. Arsenal’s choices were to either sell RVP off to the highest bidder or let Van Persie play out his contract but then risk getting nothing if he were to walk as a free agent at the end of the 2012-13 season.

Players can also request transfers simply because they are not satisfied with the current club they are on.

Fulham’s Clint Dempsey is an example. Dempsey has indicated that he wishes to play for a team participating in the UEFA Champions League, an opportunity he would likely never get playing with perennial mid-table FFC. The ball is now in Fulham’s court to either sell Dempsey or risk having him hold out for the entire season. Right now the Dempsey/Fulham situation is the EPL’s answer to Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In the case of Arsenal, they have now sold off Van Persie (for close to $35 million), midfielder Alex Song (to Barcelona for $24 million) along with two other front-line players in the past year. During the same period Arsenal signed ten players while reportedly coming out $14 million ahead.

As far as running a business and turning a profit, Arsenal likely did well and will remain a contending club. But does that make the supporters of the club happy? Or would they rather see their club pay top dollar like Manchester United or Barcelona do, then worrying about red ink and rising ticket prices later?

What we do know is that the offseason transfer window ends August 31^st and will not reopen again until January. It is a period every bit as hectic as the final days before baseball’s annual July 31^st trade deadline.

Will your favorite club acquire the players on your wish list?

FC CELTIC UPDATE

With rival Glasgow Rangers kicked down to the fourth division after declaring bankruptcy earlier this year, Celtic is heavily favored to win the Scottish Premier League. But it took a score on literally the last kick of the game to earn a 1-1 draw with Ross County.

Better news came in the UEFA Champions League by taking a 2-nil advantage over Swedish side Helsingborg in the first leg of the final qualifying round, with iconic Greek International Georgios Samaras getting a goal and an assist.

Should Celtic hang on in the aggregate score in the return leg at Celtic Park, they will advance to the group stage of the Champions League. Traditionally Celtic is the mid-major Boise State-like entry on the European stage.

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35 goals have been scored in the Barclay’s Premier League’s first 11 matches. The 3.2 goals per game clip is above the normal average of around 2.7.

Now for the Round 2 fixtures and predicted scorelines…

West Ham United away to Swansea

• August 25th
• 7:45 AM Eastern
• ESPN2

A bit of Swansea history for you: before last year the Swans had made England’s top flight only once before, in 1981, after earning promotions from the Fourth Division upward three consecutive years. The Swans would end up being relegated that year and then earned two more demotions and by 1984 were back in Fourth Division ball.

Which brings us to the present. And after an eye-opening 5-nil rout at Queens Park Rangers on Opening Day, Swansea may have designs on doing more than simply avoiding the drop.

Meanwhile, West Ham was the only one of the three newly promoted clubs to earn a win in Round 1, defeating Aston Villa 1-nil. West Ham is a brand name, however, and much more is expected out of them than the normal promoted side.

• PREDICTION:  Swansea 1, West Ham 1

Everton away to Aston Villa

• August 25th
  
• 10 AM Eastern

Manchester United found out the hard way that Everton, nor anyone else, was going to lie down and hand them the 2012-13 EPL title after a 1-nil Everton win at Goodison Park on Monday night.

Aston Villa doesn’t look nearly as good as their mid-table prediction to me. Look for David Moyes crew to make it two wins for Everton to open the season.

• PREDICTION:  Everton 2, AVFC 1

West Brom away to Tottenham

• August 25th
  
• 10 AM
• FOX Soccer Plus)

A week after opening the campaign with a stunning 3-nil win over Liverpool, WBA gets another stiff test as they travel to White Hart Lane to face a Spurs side that came up short in a 2-1 loss to Newcastle in Round 1’s marquee matchup.

During the week, the Spurs signed striker Emmanuel Adebayor from Manchester City for $8 million. Adebayor was with the Spurs on loan from Man City last year, scoring 18 times in 37 appearances.

• PREDICTION:  Spurs 2, West Brom 1

Fulham away to Manchester United

• August 25th
  
• 10 am
  
• FOX Soccer

Perhaps the week’s most intriguing matchup, with Fulham trying to follow up it’s 5-nil rout of Norwich City by trying to go 2-0 in front of 75,000+ at Old Trafford (that’s how United is able to keep signing superstar after superstar).

Anyone really think Fulham is going to send MUFC down to an 0-2 start?

• PREDICTION:  MUFC 3, Fulham 1

Wigan away to Southampton

• August 25th
• 10 AM

Considering Wigan had lost recent fixtures to Chelsea to the tunes of 6-nil and 8-nil, not conceding any additional goals after falling behind 2-nil in the first six minutes was a moral victory for Wigan – until you realize that 21-year old Victor Moses is now in talks with Chelsea in a potential transfer move, with Wigan possibly getting $12+ million in return.

Meanwhile, Southampton made a very good showing in their first match since promotion, taking a 2-1 second half lead before conceding two late goals in a loss at defending champ Manchester City.

I like the Saints very much against a Latics side that may not be organized for a while.

• PREDICTION:  Southampton 3, Wigan 1

 

Reading away to Sunderland

• August 25th
  
• 10 AM

This is actually Reading’s third match of the young season.

The Royals had a mid-week encounter at Chelsea and had a 2-1 second half lead before Fernando Torres scored the game-winner on a dubious non-offside call in an eventual 4-2 Chelsea win. The previous Sunday the Royals made their return to the top flight earning a 1-1 draw with Stoke City after earning a late penalty.

Sunderland got a nice result with a 0-0 draw at Arsenal to open the season, but Martin O’Neill’s squad has not made any major transactions to date with the transfer window rapidly winding down.

• PREDICTION:  Reading 1, Sunderland 1

 

Queens Park Rangers away to Norwich City

• August 25th
• 10 AM

The second most intriguing game of the round, with two teams coming off 5-nil defeats. Think either team is sick of hearing about ‘Second Year Syndrome’ in the tabloids right now?

QPR has spent in an attempt to get away from the relegation zone. Norwich I’m a little more worried about. They have made a couple of new acquisitions themselves though, and two players are expected to make their Canaries debut.

• PREDICTION:  QPR 3, Norwich 2

 

Newcastle United away to Chelsea

• 12:30 PM
• FOX Soccer

The late national telecast in the UK is a marquee, Joe Buck/Jim Nantz/Al Michaels-like matchup.

Manager Roberto Di Matteo wasn’t totally satisfied with his side’s shaky win over Reading, but three consecutive wins to begin the campaign, and additional reinforcements coming, would send a strong early message to the rest of the Premiership.

• PREDICTION:  Chelsea 1, Newcastle 0

 

Arsenal away to Stoke City

• Sunday, August 26th
• 8:30 AM ET
• FOX Soccer

Best Arsenal news of the week was defender Andre Santos leading cops on a 130 MPH chase with his Grand Turismo before being stopped just short of the Gunners’ training ground. That is Ricky Williams/Terry Allen territory.

On the pitch, reports have the Gunners kicking the tires on Real Madrid midfielder Nuri Sahin on a possible one-year loan. Should he pass his medical he could arrive in time for the match at Stoke.

• PREDICTION:  Arsenal 1, Stoke City 1

 

Manchester City away to Liverpool

• Sunday, August 26th
• 11 AM ET
  
• FOX Soccer

Liverpool is trending way down right now. Not only did they finish Round 1 at 18^th on the table after their 3-0 loss, but they are dreadfully thin and needed an own goal to escape with a 1-nil win in Scotland in Europa League play during the week.

Manchester City put up a grandstand finish very similar to their title-clinching win over QPR to close last season. But will the shaky play end up costing the Citizens against stronger opposition? City also dodged a bullet following the knee injury to striker Sergio Aguero, who is expected to be out a month, but did not turn out to be an ACL tear.

In even better news, Man City repeats as champions by six points in EA Sports FIFA 13 sim.

• PREDICTION:  Manchester City 2, Liverpool 0

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