March Madness: South Region First Round Predictions

Now that I’ve profiled all 68 teams in the field and previewed each region, it’s time to go game-by-game and look at the matchups.  I will also reveal my picks to win each game before posting my full predictions later this week.

First up is the South Region.

South Region Info

South Region First Round Game Predictions

#1 Kentucky vs. #16 Mississippi Valley State/#16 Western Kentucky

First off, if you’re picking the first four game, go with Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers have a number of impressive young players like Derrick Gordon and George Fant, and the team has improved significantly since Ray Harper took over as coach in the middle of the year.

Aside from that, I’m not so sure that Kentucky couldn’t knock of both off their potential foes even if they were forced to play them both at the same time.

Predicted Winner: Kentucky


Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Kentucky are poised to get back to the Final Four.

#2 Duke vs. #15 Lehigh

Lehigh has a star in guard C.J. McCollum, but I don’t see him pulling a Harold “The Show” Arceneaux-esque performance out of his hat.  Duke should be able to get whatever they want on offense and advance to the second round.

Predicted Winner: Duke

#3 Baylor vs. #14 South Dakota State

I really like that on Kenpom, Baylor’s defensive footprint is categorized as “inconclusive.”  Is that a veiled way of saying they don’t play any? All kidding aside, Baylor ranks 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the only area they really struggle is keeping opponents off the offensive glass.

South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters is a terrific player, but the Jackrabbits just don’t have the firepower to compete with the likes of Quincy Acy and Perry Jones III inside.

Predicted Winner: Baylor

#4 Indiana vs. #13 New Mexico State

While I don’t see the Aggies pulling the upset here, there are a couple of areas where they could give Indiana some trouble.

New Mexico State ranks first in free throw rate with an absurd 52.8 mark, although to some extent that was skewed by some gaudy non-conference numbers.  However, guys like Wendell McKines and Hamidu Rahman have propelled the Aggies to an extremely high offensive rebounding percentage, while the Hoosiers have struggled on the defensive glass at times.

That being said, the Hoosiers appear to have an advantage in virtually every category on the offensive end, including two-point shooting, three-point shooting, and free throw rate.  As has been the case all season, IU’s offense will carry them to a victory.

Predicted Winner: Indiana

#5 Wichita State vs. #12 VCU

This is one of the first round games I am looking forward to the most.  It’s too bad that the selection committee has a cruel sense of humor, because they set up this early matchup between two of the best mid-majors in the field.

Defense will be the name of the game in this one, with both teams ranking in the Top 30 in defensive efficiency.  The Rams want to press and push the tempo, but with veteran guards like Toure’ Murry and Joe Ragland, don’t expect Wichita State to get rattled easily.  The difference here will be Wichita State’s offense, which has been much more efficient than VCU’s this season, particularly on the interior where guys like Garrett Stutz and Carl Hall should be able to hit the glass and take advantage of VCU’s relatively poor two-point defense.

The Shockers just have too much experience and too many offensive weapons, and VCU’s poor shooting will plague them against Wichita State’s equally stingy defense.

Predicted Winner: Wichita State

#6 UNLV vs. #11 Colorado

Colorado ripped off four straight wins to earn the Pac-12 automatic bid, but I don’t see them extending that streak in the Big Dance.

The Rebels are the better defensive team, and Colorado’s only real advantage on offense is its high free throw rate.  I wouldn’t expect a tournament game to be called too closely though, which negates a bit of that advantage, and I also think Mike Moser can help to neutralize Colorado sophomore Andre Roberson.

I also think UNLV’s depth and experience will be a factor, and I simply can’t see the Buffs being able to score enough to win.

Predicted Winner: UNLV

#7 Notre Dame vs. #10 Xavier

Of all the games in the region, I think this has the most upset potential.

I loved the Musketeers early in the season, but the Crosstown Brawl set them back and I’m still not sure they have truly recovered.  However, they started to show signs of life in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, and strong backcourt play is always important in March, which bodes well for a Xavier team with two senior guards, Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons, who ooze toughness and aren’t afraid to take big shots.

The other key factor here is X’s three-point defense, which is in the Top 30 nationally and could slow down a Notre Dame offense that is at its best when long-range jumpers are falling.  The Musketeers also have a strong defensive rebounding percentage, and they’ll need it to keep Jack Cooley off the offensive glass.

Predicted Winner: Xavier

#8 Iowa State vs. #9 Connecticut

I can’t wait for this matchup, in large part because I just love watching Royce White play. The Iowa State forward does it all for the Cyclones and should prove to be a matchup problem for virtually any opponents based on his versatility and unique skill set. UConn has also struggled to defend the three-point line, which will be an issue against an Iowa State team that takes (and makes) a lot of shots from long range.


Royce White has been impressive for Iowa State this season.

On the other end of the floor, the Cyclones have a strong defensive rebounding rate, but they’ll need to find a way to maintain it against the likes of Andre Drummond on the offensive glass.  The Huskies need to pound the ball inside to take advantage of their size and ISU’s poor two-point defense, but based on what I’ve seen from UConn this year, I question their ability to recognize that.  The Cyclones may also want to consider playing zone against a Connecticut squad that has struggled from beyond the arc.

I fully expect a close game, but I will side with Royce White and Iowa State, who has certainly played with more heart throughout the season.

Predicted Winner: Iowa State


South Region Bracket, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers, Point Spreads

Game Matchup Date Time Location Announcers TV Spread
  FIRST ROUND            
  Western Kentucky def Miss Val St. 59-58 Tue, 3/13 6:40 ET Dayton Nantz-Kellogg-Kerr truTV WKU -4.5
  SECOND ROUND            
1 #1 Kentucky def #16 Western Kentucky 81-66 Thu, 3/15 6:50 ET Louisville Lundquist-Raftery TBS UK -24.5
2 #8 Iowa State def #9 UConn 77-64 Thu, 3/15 9:15 ET Louisville Lundquist-Raftery TBS CON -2
3 #4 Indiana def #13 New Mexico State 79-66 Thu, 3/15 9:40 ET Portland Anderson-Bonner CBS IU -6.5
4 #12 VCU def #5 Wichita State 62-59 Thu, 3/15 7:15 ET Portland Anderson-Bonner CBS WICH -6
5 #15 Lehigh def #2 Duke 75-70 Fri, 3/16 7:15 ET Greensboro Nantz-Kellogg TBS DUKE -12
6 #10 Xavier def #7 Notre Dame 67-63 Fri, 3/16 9:40 ET Greensboro Nantz-Kellogg TBS ND -2.5
7 #3 Baylor def #14 South Dakota State 68-60 Thu, 3/15 7:27 ET Albuquerque Dedes-Wenzel truTV BAY -8
8 #11 Colorado def #6 UNLV 68-64 Thu, 3/15 9:52 ET Albuquerque Dedes-Wenzel truTV UNLV -5
  THIRD ROUND            
9 #1 Kentucky def #8 Iowa State 87-71 Sat, 3/17 7:45 ET Louisville Lundquist-Raftery CBS UK -11.5
10 #4 Indiana def #12 VCU 63-61 Sat, 3/17 7:10 ET Portland Anderson-Bonner TBS IU -6
11 #10 Xavier def #15 Lehigh 70-58 Sun, 3/18 7:45 ET Greensboro Nantz-Kellogg truTV  
12 #3 Baylor def #11 Colorado 80-63 Sat, 3/17 8:40 ET Albuquerque Dedes-Wenzel TNT BAY -7.5
  SWEET 16            
13 #1 Kentucky v #4 Indiana Fri, 3/23   Atlanta     UK -9
14 #3 Baylor v #10 Xavier Fri, 3/23   Atlanta     BAY -6
  ELITE 8 - REGIONAL FINAL            
15 Game 13 Winner v Game 14 Winner Sun, 3/25   Atlanta      

About Andy Bottoms

While Andy was born and raised in Indiana, he would like to point out that he grew up shooting hoops in his driveway and not against the side of a barn like you see in all the March Madness promos or in the middle of a field like Jimmy Chitwood. Andy ranks among the top bracketologists according to the Bracket Matrix and has provided his projections to Fox Sports for the past three seasons. When not compiling excuses for missing work during the NCAA Tournament, Andy enjoys spending time with his wife and two daughters. He is a proud IU graduate and co-hosts The Assembly Call postgame show following every IU game. Twitter: @AndyBottoms


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  59. I’m not so sure that Kentucky couldn’t knock of both off their potential foes even if they were forced to play them both at the same time.

  60. and the only area they really struggle is keeping opponents off the offensive glass.
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  61. Long considered one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history, one can reasonably imagine the inclu.

  62. Andrew Wiggins Signs Max Contract With The Timberwolves – The Runner Sports.

  63. com/JJWattReid Ryan reports that the Angels, Rangers, and D-Backs have offered their generous support.

  64. Every year, on their way to the championship, the winning team leaves behind a signature moment, destined for the pages of basketball lore.

  65. Gonzalez is even being seen as someone who could develop into a five-tool-type center fielder.

  66. This will be Thomas’ fifth stop in the league, and it’s always been a big emphasis that he plays with heart where he’s wanted.

  67. So Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorious, and the young prospects will not be considered.

  68. Adams, Westbrook and Gibson should crash the glass, while Oladipo and Gibson should focus on getting back.

  69. 23-year-old Houston Astros outfield prospect Myles Straw approaches the storied major leaguer with trepidation.

  70. When I give them rest and recovery time, I want them to use it.

  71. I have some questions about the move, and I’m sure you do too.

  72. on of the Glendale (AZ) Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League (AFL), and with the November 21st Championship Game in the books, teams are now assessing the stats from the 30 or so games.

  73. A handful of early days off gave Lanier the confidence to boldly proceed with a three-man rotation o.

  74. Johnny, the Ramones’ influential guitarist, who passed away in 2004 at 55, was an avid baseball and New York Yankees fan since childhood.

  75. ould be tough to find another player who has gone at least 4-for-4 in consecutive games, as Altuve did (July 29, plus, he was actually 4-for-5 with 3 RBIs in the 9-7 loss at Baltimore, July 30), and we even scoured the co-ed softball leagues.

  76. Also, the Wolves will get a veteran player in Jefferson who knows how to win playoff games and can be a mentor for the young stars developing in Minnesota.

  77. The new statistics seems to bolster individuals over the team.

  78. ” y en una hora los sigues teniendo, no ha habido ninguna variación patrimonial demostrada», añade.”

  79. “ague opener against?Borussia Monchengladbach on September 13, between the United and Cherries clashes.”

  80. FOLLOW LIVE COVERAGE OF THE GAME HERE WITH OUR DEDICATED BLOGHere we go… this is how we'll line up for #FCBvAFC pic.

  81. ig launch of their kits under wraps — all it takes is someone along the production line to take a snap and share it.

  82. “If I think it is good for the team to recall Karim, then I will recall him.”

  83. “According to Spanish paper El Confidencial, the Spain striker is another player they are willing to offload in a summer of changes.”

  84. “osses Pardew and Pochettino could be set to lock horns over ZahaPA:Press Association Wire7Pardew will be keen to keep Zaha after losing Yannick Bolasie to EvertonBut Eagles boss Alan Pardew is likely to play hardball with Spurs over any concrete offer for the former Manchester United man, who returned to Palace for £15m two seasons ago.”

  85. Chelsea star Eden Hazard scores a stunning goal at home against Burnley Blues manager Antonio Conte .

  86. Lemina signed permanently just this summer for the Italian champions?from Marseille but that has not stopped the Gabon international being linked with a move to the Premier League.

  87. ARSENALS move for Shkodran Mustafi has hit a snag – his agent might not actually be his agent.

  88. “Italian artist Pupazzaro draws footballers in army gear and what was initially a hobby has turned into a business, with?players and managers?even contacting?him for a portrait.”

  89. l give Gunners their first win of the seasonSVEN KUMS AND GOESWatford set to clinch £8.

  90. The future Godin knows me very well and has repeatedly told me that I should go to Atletico Madrid as his teammate.

  91. “Whittingham, restored to the starting 11 after a three-game absence, made no mistake from 12 yards.”

  92. “12Group GThey might be struggling in the Premier League, but Claudio Ranieri’s champions Leicester have had a superb group stage, winning the group undefeated so far.”

  93. Sky Sports8Mourinho gave an extremely brief TV interview after the gameGetty Images8The Manchester U.

  94. PA:Press Association5Rowett was sacked as Blues boss in mid-DecemberReuters5Blues fans were more tha.

  95. “People just appoint managers without seeing what is out there, so it would be hypocritical for me to say the FA shouldnt go through that.”

  96. “But back came Barca, and they went 4-1 up when Neymar curled an incredible 87th minute free-kick in.”

  97. “twitter/xmB2FBiKfW— Leeds United (.LUFC) September 1, 2016“Hell keep working hard like he does in every training session on and off the pitch.”

  98. WHY OSCAR IS A MASSIVE FLOP – Tom SheenOSCAR arrived at Stamford Bridge in 2012 billed as the new Kaka – when that tag still meant something in world football.

  99. Getty Images6Nacho Monreal is one of the few Arsenal defenders fit for their opening game after inju.

  100. d Cups made him the tournaments leading scorer until Brazilian legend Ronaldo bettered that in 2006.

  101. “Having returned the club to the German Bundesligas top six, Klopp was intent on building for a successful future with a nucleus of young talent.”

  102. And Southgate had the distinct impression that the Scot had been eager to elbow him aside for weeks.

  103. “Weve got to show to everyone were? Chelsea, were big players,? a big team and we didnt finish in a good place last season.”

  104. “8million in 2014, believes his fellow Dutchman was ‘not treated properly in the final months of his Old Trafford reign.”

  105. Real Madrid vs Napoli?factsReal Madrid?and Napoli have only played each other twice in 1987The first.

  106. “But Morata has instead linked up with Real for their tour of America, and looks set for a new and improved contract to challenge Karim Benzema in attack.”

  107. “ose side are?second place in League Two, ordered the bizarre act in the final 10 minutes of their 2-0 win over their promotion rivals Carlisle on Saturday.”

  108. Getty Images13England take on World Cup holders Germany in Dortmund on WednesdayAnd before the showd.

  109. City are also set to clinch the signing of keeper Geronimo Rulli?from Deportivo Maldonado in a £9m move.

  110. “hester?this summer, earning a reputation for being one of the finest coaches in the modern era.”

  111. BRENDAN RODGERS will be desperate for revenge when his Celtic side travel to Germany.

  112. Alex Tettey and Oliveira hit the woodwork as the Canaries looked for another.

  113. Bayern Munich ace Mats Hummels spills coffee on his suit ahead of Arsenal gameThe Sun.

  114. “;I speak often with him and say ‘stay with us it’s much better for your future’, I think he is an intelligent man and he will stay.”

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