March Madness: Bracket Predictions For The 2012 NCAA Tournament

Yesterday, I posted my official bracket predictions for the 2012 NCAA Tournament, which were made using this Four Factors-based system.

(And by “official” I mean the one bracket I’m going on record with here at MSF. I’m sure I’ll fill out several more just for fun before the games start.)

Here is a recap in case you missed that post yesterday in the maelstrom of March Madness content that went up.

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Here is my bracket for this year. Click it to enlarge in a new window:

March Madness Bracket Predictions for 2012

First Four Predictions

These games are played on Tuesday and Wednesday. To see the First Four TV Schedule, click here.

• Lamar over Vermont
• Western Kentucky over Mississippi Valley State
• California over South Florida
• Iona over BYU

Pat Knight keeps up his winning ways, while Cal and Iona garner victories and delude themselves into thinking they can be this year’s VCU! (Hey, who knows, maybe they can. Stay tuned Cal fans…according to my system your team won’t be done after one game.)

To see the TV schedule for the Thursday/Friday games at each of the four regions, click here.

Midwest Bracket Predictions

Second Round Picks

• #1 North Carolina over #16 Lamar
• #8 Creighton over #9 Alabama
• #4 Michigan over #13 Ohio
• #5 Temple over #12 South Florida
• #2 Kansas over #15 Detroit
• #7 St. Mary’s over #10 Purdue
• #14 Belmont over #3 Georgetown
• #11 NC State over #6 San Diego State

Update: I initially predicted Cal to beat South Florida and then beat Temple in the next round. I clearly was wrong. South Florida blasted Cal, so I am taking a mulligan since most brackets aren’t due until Thursday.

Well let’s start off with a bang shall we? Plenty of upsets in the second round of the Midwest with three double-digit seeds winning. Belmont and NC State wins were both pick ‘ems. Here’s why I picked the underdogs: Belmont can really score (55.7 eFG%) and their efficiency margin of 20.3 wasn’t far off Georgetown’s 22.7; NC State is better offensively than San Diego State, and I think they are going to be smarting from that loss to UNC. I’ll give them the mental edge.

Third Round Picks

• #1 North Carolina over #8 Creighton
• #4 Michigan over #12 California
• #2 Kansas over #15 St. Mary’s
• #14 Belmont over #11 NC State

Michigan-Cal was a pick ‘em game, and I’m going with Michigan because they have the higher efficiency margin, plus I love Trey Burke. As for Belmont over NC State, it’s another pick ‘em game. I’m gonig with Belmont, again, because of their superior offense and far better efficiency margin (20.3 to 13.9).

Sweet 16 Picks

• #1 North Carolina over #4 Michigan
• #2 Kansas over #14 Belmont

Both of these games are blowouts based on the stats. North Carolina won 7 out of 10 and Kansas won 8 out of 10, including all four defensive categories.

Regional Final Pick

• #2 Kansas over #1 North Carolina

What a matchup of blue bloods here. Kansas ends up getting the nod because they have the higher efficiency margin (30.6 to 29.1) that was generated against a tougher schedule. I’m a little uneasy about this, because I don’t trust Kansas, but gotta go with the system, right? Right…

Midwest Region Champion: Kansas

Midwest Region Bracket, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers, Spreads

Game	Matchup	Date	Time	Location	Announcers	TV	Spread
	FIRST ROUND
	Vermont def Lamar 71-59	Wed, 3/15	6:40 ET	Dayton	Eagle-Spanarkel	truTV	LAM -3
	Cal v South Florida	Wed, 3/15	9:05 ET	Dayon	Eagle-Spanarkel	truTV	CAL -2.5
	SECOND ROUND
1	#1 North Carolina def #16 Vermont 77-58	Fri, 3/16	4:05 ET	Greensboro	Nantz-Kellogg	TBS	TBA
2	#8 Creighton def #9 Alabama 58-57	Fri, 3/16	1:40 ET	Greensboro	Nantz-Kellogg	TBS	ALA -1.5
3	#13 Ohio def #4 Michigan 65-60	Fri, 3/16	7:30 ET	Nashville	Eagle-Spanarkel	TNT	MICH -6
4	#12 South Florida def #5 Temple 58-44	Fri, 3/16	9:55 ET	Nashville	Eagle-Spanarkel	TNT	TBA
5	#2 Kansas def #15 Detroit 65-50	Fri, 3/16	9:52 ET	Omaha	Albert-Kerr-Sager	truTV	KU -15
6	#10 Purdue def #7 St. Mary's 72-59	Fri, 3/16	7:27 ET	Omaha	Albert-Kerr-Sager	truTV	PU -2
7	#3 Georgetown def #14 Belmont 74-59	Fri, 3/16	3:05 ET	Columbus	Brando-Gminski	truTV	GU -3.5
8	#11 NC State def #6 San Diego State 79-65	Fri, 3/16	12:40 ET	Columbus	Brando-Gminski	truTV	NCST -1.5
	THIRD ROUND
9	#1 North Carolina def #8 Creighton 87-73	Sun, 3/18	5:15 ET	Greensboro	Nantz-Kellogg	CBS
10	#13 Ohio def #12 South Florida 62-56	Sun, 3/18	7:10 ET	Nashville	Eagle-Spanarkel	TBS
11	#2 Kansas def #10 Purdue 63-60	Sun, 3/18	8:40 ET	Omaha	Albert-Kerr-Sager	TNT
12	#11 NC State def #3 Georgetown 66-63	Sun, 3/18	12:15 ET	Columbus	Brando-Gminski	CBS
	SWEET 16
13	#1 North Carolina v #13 Ohio	Fri, 3/23		St. Louis			UNC -10.5
14	#2 Kansas v #11 NC State	Fri, 3/23		St. Louis			KU -8
	ELITE 8 - REGIONAL FINAL
15	Game 13 Winner v Game 14 Winner	Sun, 3/23		St. Louis

*****

South Bracket Predictions

To see Andy’s capsules for each South Region team, click here.

Second Round Picks

• #1 Kentucky over #16 Western Kentucky
• #8 Iowa State over #9 UConn
• #4 Indiana over #13 New Mexico State
• #5 Wichita State over #12 VCU
• #2 Duke over #15 Lehigh
• #10 Xavier over #7 Notre Dame
• #3 Baylor over #14 South Dakota State
• #6 UNLV over #11 Colorado

Iowa State over UConn surprised me, and makes me a bit uneasy, but they have been the more efficient team over the course of the season. Indiana’s first round matchup is a tough one, but they won six out of ten categories. Xavier actually outscored Notre Dame in six categories, so that one wasn’t tough. Watch out for South Dakota State though. Their matchup with Baylor was 5-5, but I chose Baylor because of their supreme NBA-level talent and 22.6-14.0 efficiency advantage.

Third Round Picks

• #1 Kentucky over #8 Iowa State
• #4 Indiana over #5 Wichita State
• #2 Duke over #10 Xavier
• #3 Baylor over #6 UNLV

Indiana versus Wichita State is a toss up. Indiana has the advantage on offense, Wichita State has the advantage on defense. Full disclosure: I’m a die-hard Indiana fan. I can’t say that didn’t enter into my pick, because I usually let efficiency margin break the tie, and Wichita State’s is actually 0.1 higher than Indiana’s (26.6-26.5). Ultimately though, I think Cody Zeller will be the best player on the floor, and I just have a feeling that Indiana is going to play loosely and confidently the first weekend, which should allow them to out-talent Wichita State. Duke and Baylor both win with at least six of the categories.

Sweet 16 Picks

• #1 Kentucky over #4 Indiana
• #2 Duke over #3 Baylor

I don’t need the stats to tell me Kentucky will likely beat Indiana in a rematch. As much as I’ll root for Indiana, and talk myself into them being able to win the game, the stats favor Kentucky 6-4, and they will be highly motivated to beat the only team that handled them a loss during the regular season, one they’ve said repeatedly has motivated them. You beat Kentucky by playing them when they aren’t focused. A focused Wildcat team will simply be too much for the Hoosiers, I’m afraid. As for Duke-Baylor, I really wanted it to be Baylor, but Duke won six of the categories, setting up…

Regional Final Pick

• #1 Kentucky over #2 Duke

…yep, a rematch of the most famous regional final game in NCAA Tournament history. In this case, however, I don’t think there will be any last second Duke magic. Kentucky owns them statistically 7-3, and the eye test suggests Kentucky will just overwhelm Duke like North Carolina did. If Duke gets this far, I think Kentucky blows them away frankly. Again, a focused Kentucky team, against another blue blood opponent it will respect, is not good for the opponent.

South Region Champion: Kentucky

South Region Bracket, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers, Point Spreads

Game	Matchup	Date	Time	Location	Announcers	TV	Spread
	FIRST ROUND
	Western Kentucky def Miss Val St. 59-58	Tue, 3/13	6:40 ET	Dayton	Nantz-Kellogg-Kerr	truTV	WKU -4.5
	SECOND ROUND
1	#1 Kentucky def #16 Western Kentucky 81-66	Thu, 3/15	6:50 ET	Louisville	Lundquist-Raftery	TBS	UK -24.5
2	#8 Iowa State def #9 UConn 77-64	Thu, 3/15	9:15 ET	Louisville	Lundquist-Raftery	TBS	CON -2
3	#4 Indiana def #13 New Mexico State 79-66	Thu, 3/15	9:40 ET	Portland	Anderson-Bonner	CBS	IU -6.5
4	#12 VCU def #5 Wichita State 62-59	Thu, 3/15	7:15 ET	Portland	Anderson-Bonner	CBS	WICH -6
5	#15 Lehigh def #2 Duke 75-70	Fri, 3/16	7:15 ET	Greensboro	Nantz-Kellogg	TBS	DUKE -12
6	#10 Xavier def #7 Notre Dame 67-63	Fri, 3/16	9:40 ET	Greensboro	Nantz-Kellogg	TBS	ND -2.5
7	#3 Baylor def #14 South Dakota State 68-60	Thu, 3/15	7:27 ET	Albuquerque	Dedes-Wenzel	truTV	BAY -8
8	#11 Colorado def #6 UNLV 68-64	Thu, 3/15	9:52 ET	Albuquerque	Dedes-Wenzel	truTV	UNLV -5
	THIRD ROUND
9	#1 Kentucky def #8 Iowa State 87-71	Sat, 3/17	7:45 ET	Louisville	Lundquist-Raftery	CBS	UK -11.5
10	#4 Indiana def #12 VCU 63-61	Sat, 3/17	7:10 ET	Portland	Anderson-Bonner	TBS	IU -6
11	#10 Xavier def #15 Lehigh 70-58	Sun, 3/18	7:45 ET	Greensboro	Nantz-Kellogg	truTV
12	#3 Baylor def #11 Colorado 80-63	Sat, 3/17	8:40 ET	Albuquerque	Dedes-Wenzel	TNT	BAY -7.5
	SWEET 16
13	#1 Kentucky v #4 Indiana	Fri, 3/23		Atlanta			UK -9
14	#3 Baylor v #10 Xavier	Fri, 3/23		Atlanta			BAY -6
	ELITE 8 - REGIONAL FINAL
15	Game 13 Winner v Game 14 Winner	Sun, 3/25		Atlanta

*****

East Bracket Predictions

To see Andy’s team capsules for the East Region, click here.

Second Round Picks

• #1 Syracuse over #16 UNC-Asheville
• #8 Kansas State over #9 Southern Miss
• #4 Wisconsin over #13 Montana
• #5 Vanderbilt over #12 Harvard
• #2 Ohio State over #15 Loyola (MD)
• #7 Gonzaga over #10 West Virginia
• #3 Florida State over #14 St. Bonaventure
• #11 Texas over #6 Cincinnati

Interestingly, there was only one toss-up in the second round, and it involved the red-hot ACC Champions Florida State. I ultimately chose the Seminoles because of their better efficiency margin and momentum, but St. Bonaventure has better numbers than I anticipated. Texas gets the nod over Cincinnati because of their rebounding and schedule strength.

Third Round Picks

• #1 Syracuse over #8 Kansas State
• #4 Wisconsin over #5 Vanderbilt
• #2 Ohio State over #7 Gonzaga
• #11 Texas over #3 Florida State

Wisconsin-Vanderbilt is a toss up game, and it’s one I had trouble deciding. I ultimately went with Wisconsin because their efficiency margin is 26.8 to Vanderbilt’s 20.7, and their ability to hold teams to low eFG% numbers does not bode well for Vandy. Also, Florida State’s low offensive numbers catch up to them as Texas gets the nod. Texas actually has a higher efficiency margin, 19.3 to 17.6.

Sweet 16 Picks

• #4 Wisconsin over #1 Syracuse
• #2 Ohio State over #11 Texas

A Sweet 16 upset here as Wisconsin beats Syracuse. It’s a toss-up game, as both teams win five categories, but the efficiency margins are not that different (28.2 for Syracuse to 26.8 to Wisconsin), and I like Wisconsin’s ability to shoot against the Syracuse zone. Plus, one of Syracuse’s strengths this season has been forcing turnovers, but Wisconsin rarely turns it over, and the Badgers have a guy in Jordan Taylor who can single-handedly win games for the Badgers. Ohio State dominates Texas 8-2.

Regional Final Pick

• #2 Ohio State over #4 Wisconsin

An all-Big Ten regional final! Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like it’ll be a great matchup, as Ohio State wins eight of the ten categories. Certainly Wisconsin can beat the Buckeyes, but I think Ohio State is playing at or near its best entering the tournament, and they simply have too much athleticism for Wisconsin. It would be a fun game, but the Buckeyes prevail and move on to the Final Four.

East Region Champion: Ohio State

East Region Bracket, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers, Point Spreads

Game	Matchup	Date	Time	Location	Announcers	TV	Spread
	SECOND ROUND
1	#1 Syracuse def #16 UNC-Asheville 72-65	Thu, 3/15	3:05 ET	Pittsburgh	Harlan-Elmore	truTV	SU -17
2	#8 Kansas State def #9 Southern Miss 70-64	Thu, 3/15	12:40 ET	Pittsburgh	Harlan-Elmore	truTV	KST -6.5
3	#4 Wisconsin def #13 Montana 73-49	Thu, 3/15	2:10 ET	Albuquerque	Dedes-Wenzel	TNT	WIS -9.5
4	#5 Vanderbilt def #12 Harvard 79-70	Thu, 3/15	4:35 ET	Albuquerque	Dedes-Wenzel	TNT	VAN -6.5
5	#2 Ohio State def #15 Loyola (MD) 78-59	Thu, 3/15	9:45 ET	Pittsburgh	Harlan-Elmore	TNT	OSU -17.5
6	#7 Gonzaga def #10 West Virginia 77-54	Thu, 3/15	7:20 ET	Pittsburgh	Harlan-Elmore	TNT	Pick 'em
7	#3 Florida State def #14 St. Bonaventure 66-63	Fri, 3/16	2:40 ET	Nashville	Eagle-Spanarkel	CBS	FSU -6
8	#6 Cincinnati def #11 Texas 65-59	Fri, 3/16	12:15 ET	Nashville	Eagle-Spanarkel	CBS	CIN -2
	THIRD ROUND
9	#1 Syracuse def #8 Kansas State 77-59	Sat, 3/17	12:15 ET	Pittsburgh	Harlan-Elmore	CBS	SU -5
10	#4 Wisconsin def #5 Vanderbilt 60-57	Sat, 3/17	6:10 ET	Albuquerque	Dedes-Wenzel	TNT	VAN -1
11	#2 Ohio State def #7 Gonzaga 73-66	Sat, 3/17	2:45 ET	Pittsburgh	Harlan-Elmore	CBS	OSU -7.5
12	#3 Florida State v #6 Cincinnati	Sun, 3/18	9:40 ET	Nashville	Eagle-Spanarkel	TBS
	SWEET 16
13	#1 Syracuse v #4 Wisconsin	Thu, 3/22		Boston			SU -4
14	#2 Ohio State v Game 12 Winner	Thu, 3/22		Boston
	ELITE 8 - REGIONAL FINAL
15	Game 13 Winner v Game 14 Winner	Sat, 3/24		Boston

*****

West Bracket Predictions

To see Andy’s team-by-team capsules for the West Region, click here.

Second Round Picks

• #1 Michigan State over #16 LIU Brooklyn
• #8 Memphis over #9 Saint Louis
• #4 Louisville over #13 Davidson
• #5 New Mexico over #12 Long Beach State
• #2 Missouri over #15 Norfolk State
• #7 Florida over #10 Virginia
• #3 Marquette over #14 Iona
• #11 Colorado State over #6 Murray State

Memphis is many folks’ darling heading into the tournament, but they were a toss-up victory over Saint Louis. I chose the Tigers because their efficiency margin is slightly better and because they are red hot. The only other unexpected result in this set of games isn’t even a toss-up, which shocked me. Colorado State actually beats Murray State in six out of ten categories. If you asked me who I thought would win this game, I’d have said Murray State. But damn the system. It picks the Rams, so that’s what we go with; and frankly, their numbers suggest that Colorado State is much better than I thought. Did you know Murray State’s efficiency margin is only 7.3 this year? It’s true. That’s far from elite.

Third Round Picks

• #1 Michigan State over #8 Memphis
• #5 New Mexico over #4 Louisville
• #2 Missouri over #7 Florida
• #3 Marquette over #11 Colorado State

I’ve already heard many folks suggesting Memphis as an upset pick of Michigan State. I don’t buy it, and luckily I don’t have to since the Spartans win 6-4. New Mexico bests Louisville 6-4 and has an efficiency margin advantage of 5.3. Missouri and Marquette win with at least six category advantages a piece.

Sweet 16 Picks

• #1 Michigan State over #5 New Mexico
• #3 Marquette over #2 Missouri

Michigan State has a 7-3 advantage over New Mexico, whose efficiency margin is 8.1 less than Michigan State’s. The Marquette-Missouri matchup would be a fascinating one, and I have it as a toss-up, with each winning five categories. Missouri even dominates the efficiency margin 28-22.1, but I’m going with Marquette based on a hunch. I wouldn’t be surprised to be wrong here, but I like Buzz Williams more as a coach than Frank Haith, and in a big spot like this I’m going with the coach I trust more, since I have the option.

Regional Final Pick

• #1 Michigan State over #3 Marquette

The Spartans win 6-4. They own Marquette on the glass and have a 30.2-22.1 efficiency margin. And we just now that Tom Izzo is magnetically attracted to the Final Four, so I don’t think he’ll be denied once he’s one game away from another one.

West Region Champion: Michigan State

West Region Bracket, TV Schedule, Sites, Announcers, Point Spreads

Game	Matchup	Date	Time	Location	Announcers	TV	Spread
	FIRST ROUND
	BYU def Iona 78-72	Tue, 3/14	9:05 ET	Dayton	Nantz-Kellogg-Kerr	truTV	BYU -2
	SECOND ROUND
1	#1 Michigan State def #16 LIU Brooklyn 89-67	Fri, 3/16	9:15 ET	Columbus	Brando-Gminski	TBS	MSU -20
2	#9 Saint Louis def #8 Memphis 61-54	Fri, 3/16	6:50 ET	Columbus	Brando-Gminski	TBS	MEM -3
3	#4 Louisville def #13 Davidson 69-62	Thu, 3/15	1:40 ET	Portland	Anderson-Bonner	TBS	UL -7
4	#5 New Mexico def #12 Long Beach State 75-68	Thu, 3/15	3:05 ET	Portland	Anderson-Bonner	TBS	UNM -4.5
5	#15 Norfolk St def #2 Missouri 86-84	Fri, 3/16	4:35 ET	Omaha	Albert-Kerr-Sager	TNT	MIS -21.5
6	#7 Florida def #10 Virginia 71-45	Fri, 3/16	2:10 ET	Omaha	Albert-Kerr-Sager	TNT	UF -3.5
7	#3 Marquette def #14 BYU 88-68	Thu, 3/15	2:35 ET	Louisville	Lundquist-Raftery	CBS	TBA
8	#6 Murray State def #11 Colorado State 58-41	Thu, 3/15	12:15 ET	Louisville	Lundquist-Raftery	CBS	MUR -3.5
	THIRD ROUND
9	#1 Michigan State def #9 Saint Louis 65-61	Sun, 3/18	2:45 ET	Columbus	Brando-Gminski	CBS
10	#4 Louisville def #5 New Mexico 59-56	Sat, 3/17	9:40 ET	Portland	Anderson-Bonner	TBS	LOU -1.5
11	#7 Florida def #15 Norfolk State	Sun, 3/18	6:10 ET	Omaha	Albert-Kerr-Sager	TNT	UF -14
12	#3 Marquette def #6 Murray State 62-53	Sat, 3/17	5:15 ET	Louisville	Lundquist-Raftery	CBS	MARQ -5
	SWEET 16
13	#1 Michigan State v #4 Louisville	Thu, 3/22		Phoenix			MSU -5
14	#7 Florida v #3 Marquette	Thu, 3/22		Phoenix			MARQ -2
	ELITE 8 - REGIONAL FINAL
15	Game 13 Winner v Game 14 Winner	Sat, 3/24		Phoenix

*****

Final Four Bracket Predictions

Final Four Games

• South #1 Kentucky over West #1 Michigan State
• East #2 Ohio State over Midwest #2 Kansas

I mentioned above that I’m an Indiana fan, so you know that seeing Kentucky in the Final Four does not excited me; but I knew it was very likely once I compiled all of the stats and then saw them lose today – because now the most efficient and dominant team in the tournament will enter without the arrogance of having won every game it’s played in the 2012 calendar year. And sure enough, Kentucky outscores Michigan State 7-3 to get to the title game.

The other semifinal game would pit a couple of Midwest teams against each other in Ohio State and Kansas. This battle is also a 7-3 margin, and the Buckeyes are the ones who advance.

Frankly, I’d really have loved to pick Kansas and Michigan State, because those would be the two teams I’d actually root for in a Final Four with these four teams, but I’ve gotta go with what the system says…

National Championship Game

• South #1 Kentucky over East #2 Ohio State

This would really be a terrific game. Ohio State has been a bit up and down this year with their focus, but this is a talented team with size the give Kentucky problems, and they seem to be entering the tournament with as much focus as they’ve had all year.

But Kentucky simply looks like they would be too much, as the Wildcats actually earn a 7-3 advantage.

Believe me, I really, really, really want to see someone else win the National Championship. And I wouldn’t bet a dime on Kentucky, because I simply don’t trust their youth come March – and with good reason – but the reality is that their stats are more dominant this year than they’ve been in any of Coach Cal’s previous seasons in Lexington, and Anthony Davis is both the most talented and best player in America.

It’ll probably make me vomit, but I have to go with Kentucky to win it all in 2012.

National Champion: Kentucky Wildcats

**********

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