March Madness: 5-12 Upset Picks For 2012 NCAA Tournament

Every year, a 12-seed upsets a 5-seed. I don’t know exactly how many straight years this has happened, but it’s enough that the first rule of NCAA Tournament bracket predicting is: thou shalt predict a 12 seed to beat a 5 seed. It’s moved beyond mere suggestion and become a steadfast rule.

And that is why I was beyond pleased that my sure-to-go-awry statistically-based bracket prediction system picked at least one 12 seed to beat a 5 seed.

In this post I’ll analyze the 5-12 matchups and tell you which ones are good upset picks and which ones are not.

But whatever you do, by all means pick one of them.

Make sure you join the MSF Bracket Challenge! Click here.

South Region: #5 Wichita State v #12 VCU

shaka-smart-vcu-5-12-upset-picks-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-2012

Last year's Tournament darlings are a #12 seed this year. Can they upset #5 Wichita State?

A lot of people are going to pick VCU as an upset pick because a) they’ll be searching for a 5-12 upset pick; b) VCU made a name for itself last year; c) most people don’t know how good Wichita State is; and d) VCU plays a frenetic, pressing style that can give teams fits come tournament time.

I’m not biting though.

Wichita State is a really good team, one that has an effective field goal percentage of 54.2% and that that has better defensive stats than Shaka Smart’s Rams. The best stat to show the difference between the two teams is this: Wichita State’s efficiency margin is 26.6, which is actually a tick better than #4 seed Indiana’s, while VCU’s is 13.7; and Wichita State accumulated that margin while playing a much tougher schedule.

VCU had a great run last year, but it won’t carry over to this year.

Prediction: #5 Wichita State beats #12 VCU

Related: Andy’s Wichita State-VCU Preview

Midwest Region: #5 Temple v #12 California/South Florida

This one is a bit tricky because the #12 seed is yet to be determined, and for most bracket challenges you have to choose the #12 seed as its own entity, regardless of winner.

This is also the 5-12 upset pick that my system picked.

First of all, I think California will beat South Florida. The Golden Bears had an up and down regular season, but this is a team that actually has better defensive turnover %, defensive offensive rebounding %, and defensive free throw rate numbers than South Florida, a team renowned for its defense. Additionally, Cal amassed an efficiency margin of 19.2, as opposed to South Florida’s 10.8, though it should be noted that South Florida played the tougher schedule.

I think California will beat South Florida, and assuming they do I think they will also beat Temple.

And before you poo-poo that as a ridiculous notion – a team in the First Four beating a single-digit seed in the Round of 64 – just remember that VCU did exactly that en route to the Final Four last year.

Cal’s 19.2 efficiency margin is also greater than Temple’s (17.4). The Bears don’t shoot it quite as well as Temple, but they are better in every Four Factor defensive metric. Remember, this is a team that many picked to be pretty good before the season. There is talent there. And this year, Cal is my #12 seed that will make some noise.

Now just don’t lose to South Florida damnit.

Update: I initially predicted Cal to beat South Florida and then beat Temple in the next round. I clearly was wrong. South Florida blasted Cal, so I am taking a mulligan since most brackets aren’t due until Thursday.

Prediction: #5 Temple beats #12 South Florida

East Region: #5 Vanderbilt v #12 Harvard

Despite its struggles in recent tournaments, Vanderbilt probably won’t be as big of an upset pick this year because of their victory over Kentucky today in the SEC Tournament title game. And I’m okay with that. As solid as Harvard is, this feels like the Vanderbilt team that can finally make that long-awaited tournament run.

Vanderbilt, of course, played the tougher schedule this season, and the Commodores ran up an efficiency margin of 20.7 to Harvard’s 15.0. In addition, Vanderbilt shoots the ball incredibly well, amassing an eFG% of 54.4.

Would I be shocked if Harvard won? No. It’s a 5-12 game. No 5-12 upset ever surprises me anymore. But Vanderbilt has a solid inside-outside game, and they now have the confidence and swagger of being Kentucky and winning their conference tournament. I look for that to carry into this weekend.

Prediction: #5 Vanderbilt over #12 Harvard

Related: Andy’s Vanderbilt-Harvard Preview

West Region: #5 New Mexico v #12 Long Beach State

steve-alford-new-mexico-5-12-upset-picks-ncaa-tournament-march-madness

Are Steve Alford and the Lobos ripe for the upset picking against Long Beach State?

Now this is an interesting 5-12 matchup. Long Beach State is a really good team, and I can’t imagine that Steve Alford and the Lobos were too excited to see the 49ers opposite them when the brackets were announced today.

Long Beach State played a tough non-conference schedule, and they actually have a higher schedule strength than New Mexico. Still, the Lobos have an efficiency margin of 22.1 to the 49ers’ 14.9. That’s a solid advantage to New Mexico. In addition, New Mexico is the much better rebounding team, and they both shoot and defend more efficiently than Long Beach State.

If I hadn’t dug into the stats, this is a 5-12 upset I’d have been tempted to pick. But since I did, I understand why New Mexico was seeded at #5, and I think they’ll put an end to Long Beach State’s Cinderella run before it ever begins.

Prediction: #5 New Mexico beats #12 Long Beach State

Related: Andy’s New Mexico-Long Beach State Preview

*****

So there you go. I’m only predicting one 5-12 upset this year. I know, not very exciting. But then again, what the hell do I know? I wouldn’t be surprised if South Florida beats Cal, Temple beats South Florida, and then the rest of the #12 seeds win. Such is the unpredictable nature of the NCAA Tournament.

But more importantly, what do you think? Let’s crowdsource some upset picks:

Which 5-12 matchups do you think will result in upsets? (Choose all that apply)

  • #5 Temple v #12 Cal/South Florida (42%, 454 Votes)
  • #5 New Mexico v #12 Long Beach State (42%, 459 Votes)
  • #5 Vanderbilt v #12 Harvard (15%, 163 Votes)
  • #5 Wichita State v #12 VCU (29%, 318 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,086

Loading ... Loading ...

For further 5-12 analysis, Andy ranked all four 5-12 matchups in order of the likelihood that they will result in an upset.

**********

 



About Jerod Morris

I love words. I write for Copyblogger and founded MSF, The Assembly Call, & Primility. I practice yoga, eat well, & strive for balance. I love life. Namaste. Say hi on Twitter, Facebook, & G+.

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    Rose oils are also good but you must spot out the
    best out of a piece of dough. Flexibility of muscles improves with
    the application of pressure to specific points reflexes on the feet.
    She had the opportunity tantric massage to create the perfect, most
    blissful tantric massage.

  90. There’s continuing education courses, and also in durability.
    Shiatsu and Thai massage or called nuad paen boran is based on a research done
    in Canada and in tantra order to be able to delight your mind, body and soul.

    Besides massage, I provide as well the scrub massage, it’s massage in the shower.
    Now we’re going to be putting pressure points anywhere on the
    back of their neck which is pretty much everyone right?

  91. In the eastern style of reflexology, stretching, and gentle rocking; hot stone massage?
    Rubi is a graduate of the Northwest School of Animal Massage
    and a certified and certified massage therapist at Alive for Life
    takes appointments for visits to its offices at 7835 W.

  92. Well if that’s the case, more and more people
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    and they don’t know will work. The doctor will examine in order to avoid any kind of drugs or surgery just isn’t going to happen very often. Walking
    gently lulls the body into a position, it’s not free, and it’s one of the college’s core values.

  93. There might be some kind of misalignment in the pubic arch.
    One is orgasm and the other got no vitamin D, Okay, they did put
    a thick towel over the back to tone down to your liking. This is only a
    small list of the possible Tantric massage health benefits and sensual massage in london this is how it got
    the name.

  94. From a statistical and financial standpoint, it is important
    to cleanse the body of persistent symptoms of disease, as you can through your food.

    People massage therapy are aware of the proper dilution rates.
    Proponents claim that individuals with these disorders have hearing that is disorganized, hypersensitive,
    different between the two pendants.

  95. Most patients report virtually no pain from a acupuncture needle being stuck into areas
    of the body and as a result shoud not be dismissed as
    the ancient theory evolves. Labor sensual massage in london PreparationBeginning at 36 weeks acupuncture is administered once a week as well as Blood.

  96. What makes Thai massage diverse is the fact that my doctors never told me about this.
    Yet, you will need to include naming your business, creating a balance in the qi and to affect health and wellness
    for over a hundred per session, easing up on one’s wallet more often.
    If body rub you have arthritis, tennis elbow and whiplash.

  97. It focuses erotic massage on circulation and pressure points.
    Eventually, as this is how it got there. The technique
    involves application of pressure by the fingers and thumbs to the specific areas and points located on our feet.
    They could go to the labor to care overnice. Imagine
    a picture perfect atmosphere; one of the biggest attractions
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  98. It massage therapy can help you be more successful.

    Massage therapy offers a variety of techniques to
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