Indiana-New Mexico State Preview: Analysis, Prediction, Date and TV Tip Time, Point Spread, and Tickets

March 12, 2012 By 3 Comments

There are 32 games on Thursday and Friday, one of the most exciting 48-hour segments on the sports calendar.

We won’t be able to get individual previews up for every game, but we’ll cherry pick some of the more compelling matchups during the tournament’s “second” round.

In this post, we preview the 4-13 matchup in the South Region between the resurgent Indiana Hoosiers and rugged, under-appreciated New Mexico State.

Indiana-New Mexico State Game Info

Indiana-New Mexico State Analysis and Prediction

While I don’t see the Aggies pulling the upset here, there are a couple of areas where they could give Indiana some trouble.

New Mexico State ranks first in free throw rate with an absurd 52.8 mark, although to some extent that was skewed by some gaudy non-conference numbers.  However, guys like Wendell McKines and Hamidu Rahman have propelled the Aggies to an extremely high offensive rebounding percentage, while the Hoosiers have struggled on the defensive glass at times.

That being said, the Hoosiers appear to have an advantage in virtually every category on the offensive end, including two-point shooting, three-point shooting, and free throw rate.  As has been the case all season, IU’s offense will carry them to a victory.

Predicted Winner: Indiana

victor-oladipo-indiana-new-mexico-state-preview-prediction-date-tv-tip-time-point-spread-analysis

Indiana played much better basketball starting in February when Victor Oladipo took a more prominent role in the offense.

 

Indiana Team Capsule

  • Conference: Big Ten
  • Record: 25-8 (11-7 conf)
  • Last 10 Games: 8-2
  • Record vs. Tournament Teams: 8-5
  • Wins vs. Tournament Teams: Kentucky, Michigan, Michigan State, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue (2)
  • Losses vs. Tournament Teams: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin (2)
  • Player to Watch: Cody Zeller (6’11” F, Fr.) – 15.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.3 spg, 1.2 bpg, 62.6 FG%

Indiana Hoosiers Bottoms Line:

Apparently the rebuilding process for the Hoosiers is a year ahead of schedule, as this year’s squad went undefeated in the non-conference and picked up a number of high quality wins.  One big reason for their substantial improvement is the play of freshman phenom Cody Zeller, who leads the Hoosiers in scoring and rebounding.  His ability to run the floor puts pressure on opposing defenses, and he has been even more impressive than IU fans had hoped.

Three other Hoosiers score in double figures, including juniors Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls.  Watford has been inconsistent over the course of his career, but he has posted double-doubles in three of the last four games.  Hulls is shooting over 49 percent from long range and makes nearly 90 percent from the line.  The turning point for IU came when sophomore Victor Oladipo slid over the point.  His aggressiveness on both ends of the floor has provided a spark for the Hoosiers.

A number of bench players have contributed as well, but IU will be without senior Verdell Jones III, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Big Ten Tournament.  The Hoosiers are in the Top Five in offensive efficiency, led by Top 10 rankings in three-point shooting, effective field goal percentage, and free throw rate, which is critical since they shoot over 76 percent from the line.

Indiana has struggled on defense though and ranks outside of the Top 100 in all four factors.  They will need to rely on outscoring teams to win in the tournament, but they have to put up more resistance on defense to make a deep run.

New Mexico State Aggies Team Capsule

  • Conference: WAC
  • Record: 26-9 (10-4 conf)
  • Last 10 Games: 9-1
  • Record vs. Tournament Teams: 1-3
  • Wins vs. Tournament Teams: New Mexico
  • Losses vs. Tournament Teams: New Mexico, Southern Mississippi (2)
  • Player to Watch: Wendell McKines (6’6” F, Sr.) – 18.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg

New Mexico State Aggies Bottoms Line:

In one of the more lopsided results of Championship Week, New Mexico State routed Louisiana Tech to earn the WAC’s automatic bid.  In that game, the Aggies pounded the ball inside as they have done throughout the year.

They take under 25 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, which is one of the lowest rates in the country.  Instead, they push the tempo and relentlessly attack the rim and crash the boards.  For the year, they hit 51.2 percent from two-point range, grabbed over 40 percent of their missed shots, and rank first in the nation in free throw rate.  That all starts with Wendell McKines, who is a double-double machine with strong rebounding rates on the offensive and defensive glass.

Point guard Hernst Laroche scores 12.0 points per game and leads the Aggies in assists and steals, while also hitting over 40 percent from deep.  Big man Hamidu Rahman is among the nation’s best offensive rebounders and has a phenomenal 100.5 free throw rate, although he actually shoots better from the field than he does from the stripe.  Throw in athletic freshman Daniel Mullings, who scores 9.3 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, and you have an explosive offensive attack.

The Aggies also do a decent job on the defensive end, and not surprisingly they have a high defensive rebounding percentage.  They are playing very well right now and have won 12 of their last 14 teams, with the two losses coming by a total of five points.

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Related: Jump to our South Region Bracket Breakdown.

See our other individual game previews and predictions:

Filed Under: March Madness 2012, The Bottoms Line Tagged With: , , , , ,
About Andy Bottoms

While Andy was born and raised in Indiana, he would like to point out that he grew up shooting hoops in his driveway and not against the side of a barn like you see in all the March Madness promos or in the middle of a field like Jimmy Chitwood. Since 2003, he has provided fantasy football and baseball content for a number of sites, some of which has been syndicated on SI.com and Yahoo. However, his true passion has always been college hoops. In addition to his work at MSF, Andy hosts the Bottoms Line podcast and is an editor at Run The Floor. Previously he provided college hoops content for RotoExperts and hosted a weekly podcast with John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus. When not compiling excuses for missing work during the NCAA Tournament, Andy enjoys spending time with his wife and two daughters. He is a proud IU graduate who is glad to see the basketball program on the rise, still watches old game tapes of Calbert Cheaney, and would pay good money to punch Kelvin Sampson in the face. Twitter: @AndyBottoms

Comments

  1. Jbriggs926 says:
    March 12, 2012 at 8:51 pm

    Proof your copy. This is sloppy.

    Reply
  2. Sorth15 says:
    March 12, 2012 at 10:47 pm

    Aiden would like a PDF copy of all your previews can you send it to us?? 

    Reply

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