Bracketology: NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections as of 3/8

Lehigh, LIU Brooklyn, and Montana punched their tickets to the Big Dance on Wednesday night, and the remaining major conference tournaments all get underway on Thursday as Championship Week rolls along.

As things start to heat up in those tournaments, look for plenty of movement within the last few spots given a seemingly endless supply of teams with mediocre profiles.

Below are my latest bracket projections through Wednesday’s games. As usual, underneath the bracket I will give my last four in and my last five out as well as the rationale I used to make those decisions.

 

EAST (BOSTON) SOUTH (ATLANTA)
PITTSBURGH – March 15 & 17 LOUISVILLE – March 15 & 17
1 Syracuse (30-1) 1 Kentucky (30-1)
16 Texas-Arlington (24-7) 16 UNC-Asheville (24-9)
8 Kansas State (21-9) 8 Purdue (20-11)
9 Saint Louis (24-6) 9 Virginia (22-8)
ALBUQUERQUE – March 15 & 17 PORTLAND – March 15 & 17
5 Florida State (21-9) 5 Murray State (30-1)
12 Long Beach State (22-8) 12 VCU (28-6)
4 UNLV (25-7) 4 Temple (24-6)
13 Dayton (20-11)/Northwestern (18-12) 13 Nevada (25-5)
ALBUQUERQUE – March 15 & 17 COLUMBUS – March 16 & 18
6 Vanderbilt (21-10) 6 Notre Dame (21-10)
11 West Virginia (19-13) 11 Colorado State (19-10)
3 Baylor (25-6) 3 Michigan (23-8)
14 Davidson (25-7) 14 Detroit (22-13)
PITTSBURGH – March 15 & 17 OMAHA – March 16 & 18
7 Louisville (23-9) 7 Gonzaga (25-6)
10 Harvard (26-4) 10 Connecticut (20-12)
2 Ohio State (25-6) 2 Missouri (27-4)
15 Lehigh (26-7) 15 LIU Brooklyn (25-8)
MIDWEST (ST. LOUIS) WEST (PHOENIX)
OMAHA – March 16 & 18 GREENSBORO – March 16 & 18
1 Kansas (26-5) 1 North Carolina (27-4)
16 Stony Brook (22-8)/Miss. Vall. St. (19-12) 16 W. Kentucky (15-18)/Norfolk St. (23-9)
8 Memphis (23-8) 8 Iowa State (22-9)
9 Cincinnati (22-9) 9 Alabama (20-10)
PORTLAND – March 15 & 17 NASHVILLE – March 16 & 18
5 Wichita State (27-5) 5 Creighton (28-5)
12 South Florida (20-12) 12 Xavier (19-11)
4 Wisconsin (23-8) 4 Indiana (24-7)
13 Drexel (27-6)/BYU (25-8) 13 South Dakota State (27-7)
LOUISVILLE – March 15 & 17 NASHVILLE – March 16 & 18
New Mexico (24-6) San Diego State (24-6)
11 California (23-8) 11 Mississippi State (21-10)
3 Marquette (25-6) 3 Georgetown (23-7)
14 Akron (21-10) 14 Belmont (27-7)
GREENSBORO – March 16 & 18 COLUMBUS – March 16 & 18
7 Florida (22-9) 7 Saint Mary’s (27-5)
10 Southern Mississippi (24-7) 10 Washington (21-9)
2 Duke (26-5) 2 Michigan State (24-7)
15 Montana (25-6) 15 Loyola, MD (24-8)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Last Four In:

Drexel

A valiant comeback fell just short in the CAA Championship Game, but the Dragons still went 25-2 in the last 27 games. The issue is that 15 of their 27 victories came at the expense of sub-200 squads, and outside of an early January win over VCU, Drexel has not beaten a tournament team. Still, the Dragons were the outright regular season champs in the Colonial, and I think they deserve a bid. Any bid thieves in smaller leagues would put them in serious danger though.

Dayton

The Flyers took care of business in the first round of the A-10 Tournament by beating George Washington by 17 points. Dayton has an impressive eight Top 100 wins, but a few ugly losses may be their undoing. If they can beat Xavier to get to the Semifinals, things start to get interesting, but anything less means they’ll probably be heading to the NIT.

Northwestern

After escaping from Iowa with a win, Northwestern is back in the field, but just barely. With only one Top 50 win, the Wildcats need to beat Minnesota in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament, then follow that up by knocking off Michigan in the Quarterfinals. Even that might not be enough, but it’s a good start.

BYU

The Cougars got crushed by Gonzaga in the WCC Semifinals, and the fact that all but one of their Top 50 losses has come by double digits certainly doesn’t help their case. Now they have to hope for some of the other bubble contenders to lose, but their overall profile just isn’t that impressive with nearly half of their wins coming against sub-200 squads.

First Five Out:

Texas

Not surprisingly, the Longhorns fell at Kansas on Saturday night. They are now just 8-12 against the Top 150, which means they likely need to beat both Iowa State and Missouri to get to the Big 12 Championship Game to have a legitimate chance for an at-large.

Tennessee

There probably isn’t a more interesting case for the selection committee, as the Vols were just 8-8 prior to the mid-season addition of freshman Jarnell Stokes.  Tennessee proceeded to go 10-5 in their last 15 games to tie for second place in the SEC.  Last year’s USC team faced a similar situation with guard Jio Fontan, and the Trojans wound up in the First Four.  Tennessee could do the same (or better) with a strong showing in the SEC Tournament.

Oregon

Saturday’s win over Utah didn’t move the needle much for the Ducks, but they did get some benefit from losses by fellow Pac-12 bubblers. Their best-case scenario would be a convincing win over Cal to get to the conference tournament final, but even that may not be enough.

Seton Hall

The Pirates took care of business in the opening round of the Big East Tournament by crushing Providence, but Wednesday’s loss to Louisville moved them out of the field.  They have four Top 50 wins but are just 5-10 over their last 15 contests, which certainly doesn’t help their case.

Miami (FL)

Similar to Oregon, the Canes took care of business against a conference bottom-feeder on Saturday, which didn’t really help their case. A second win over Florida State in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament would certainly help, but they may need to knock off Duke for a second time as well.

Saint Joseph’s

The Hawks beat Charlotte by 16 points in their A-10 Tournament opener, which sets up a rematch with Saint Bonaventure, who beat them in double overtime last week. If they can win there, the Hawks would likely face a Temple squad they knocked off within the last month.

*******

Here is how the bids broke out by conference:

Big East (9): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big 12 (5): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri

SEC (5): Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

ACC (4): Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia

Mountain West (4): Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Atlantic 10 (4): Dayton, Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier

West Coast (3): BYU, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s*

Colonial (2): Drexel, VCU*

Conference USA (2): Memphis, Southern Mississippi

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton*, Wichita State

Pac-12 (2): California, Washington

America East: Stony Brook

Atlantic Sun: Belmont*

Big Sky: Montana*

Big South: UNC-Asheville*

Big West: Long Beach State

Horizon: Detroit*

Ivy: Harvard*

MAAC: Loyola (MD)*

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Northeast: LIU Brooklyn*

Ohio Valley: Murray State*

Patriot: Lehigh*

Southern: Davidson*

Southland: Texas-Arlington

Summit: South Dakota State*

Sun Belt: Western Kentucky*

SWAC: Mississippi Valley State

WAC: Nevada

* – Won automatic berth

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Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.



About Andy Bottoms

While Andy was born and raised in Indiana, he would like to point out that he grew up shooting hoops in his driveway and not against the side of a barn like you see in all the March Madness promos or in the middle of a field like Jimmy Chitwood. Andy ranks among the top bracketologists according to the Bracket Matrix and has provided his projections to Fox Sports for the past three seasons. When not compiling excuses for missing work during the NCAA Tournament, Andy enjoys spending time with his wife and two daughters. He is a proud IU graduate and co-hosts The Assembly Call postgame show following every IU game. Twitter: @AndyBottoms

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