By now, you’ve had a couple of weeks to watch the point spread for Super Bowl XLVI fluctuate a bit. After opening with the Patriots as a four-point favorite, the line dropped to 3.5 before eventually settling at Patriots -3.
As of Sunday, here is the Super Bowl XLVI Point Spread: Patriots -3 (even); Giants +3 (-120).
What the line means is that you would need to bet $100 to win $100 if you chose New England, but if you opted for New York, you would need to lay down $120 to win $100.
The over/under for the 2012 Super Bowl is 54, with (-110) on each side of the line. If you wanted to win $100 on the bet, you would need to wager $110.
Super Bowl 2012 Spread and Over-Under Analysis
When the Patriots and the Giants met in Week 10 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, New York came away with a 24-20 victory. It’s interesting that the final margin from this game has shifted seven points and the over-under has risen by 10.
For reference, here are the final spreads, over/unders, and final scores from the last 10 years, dating back to Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s first Super Bowl against the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI.
Super Bowl XLV: Packers (-3) over the Steelers, over/under of 45. Final score – Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25. Packers win and cover the spread and the over hits.
Super Bowl XLIV: Colts (-5) over the Saints, over/under of 57. Final score – New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17. Colts lose and do not cover and the under hits.
Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers (-7) over the Cardinals, over/under of 46. Final score – Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23. Steelers win but do not cover and the over hits.
Super Bowl XLII: Patriots (-12) over the Giants, over/under of 55. Final score – New York 17, New England 14. Patriots lose and do not cover and the under hits.
Super Bowl XLI: Steelers (-4) over the Seahawks, over/under of 47. Final score – Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10. Steelers win and cover and the under hits.
Super Bowl XL: Colts (-7) over the Bears, over/under of 47. Final score – Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17. Colts win and cover and the under hits.
Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots (-7) over the Eagles, over/under of 46.5. Final score – New England 24, Philadelphia 21. Patriots win but do not cover and the under hits.
Super Bowl XXXVIII: Patriots (-7) over the Panthers, over/under of 37.5. Final score – New England 32, Carolina 29. Patriots win but do not cover and the over hits.
Super Bowl XXXVII: Raiders (-4) over the Buccaneers, over/under of 44. Final score – Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 31. Raiders lose and do not cover and the over hits.
Super Bowl XXXVI: Rams (-14) over the Patriots, over/under of 53. Final score – New England 20, St. Louis 17. Rams lose and do not cover and the under hits.
Final tally from the past 10 Super Bowls:
- Favorite wins and covers: 3
- Favorite wins but do not cover: 3
- Underdog wins: 4
- Over: 4
- Under 6
There have been a wide array of outcomes in the past ten Super Bowls. Only three favorites have covered, so recent history is on the Giants’ side, as is seemingly everyone else.
The other thing to note is that each of the four Super Bowls featuring Tom Brady have finished with a three-point final margin, with Brady winning three of those games.
So are you a believer in historical trends? Or do you think that it’s time for a different outcome?
My gut feeling is that it’s going to be a high scoring game, covering the over easily. I like New England by two touchdowns, winning 38-24. I don’t have a real good reason for this, other than the fact that Bill Belichick won’t let Tom Coughlin beat him twice.