ALL the way back on January 23rd, I posted the initial point spread and over-under for Super Bowl 46 between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.
At that time, the Patriots were favored by three points, which seemed reasonable considering that they were the more consistent team during the season and most bettors still probably trust Tom Brady more than Eli Manning whether they still should or not. The over-under was initially set at 55.
In the week since, we’ve heard various ominous reports of Rob Gronkowski’s high ankle sprain, and I’ve personally heard far more pundits and analysis predict a Giants victory than a Patriots victory. I figured these two elements would combine to cause most bettors to bet on the analyst favorite and the team not likely to be playing with one of its biggest weapons gimpy, especially when said team – the Giants – is getting points.
But apparently that hasn’t happened.
Super Bowl 46 Point Spread and Analysis
According to our friends at DocSports, every single sportsbook save for one still has the Patriots at -3. The outlier sportsbook has the Pats at -2.5. I have to say that I’m pretty surprised.
Remember that sportsbooks don’t set lines based necessarily on how they think the game will. They set lines based on what they think will draw the most action on both sides of the bet. So we can safely assume that roughly an equal number of people are taking the Patriots -3 as are taking the Giants +3. Otherwise, the line would have moved to even up the action.
When I made my Super Bowl 46 pick, it was easy: Giants +3. And I did it last Monday before we knew much about Gronk’s ankle and before I realized just how easy of a schedule New England played this year, which made their regular season exploits seem a little less impressive to me.
Perhaps with more betting action sure to come over the balance of the week leading up to Sunday’s game, we’ll start to see more action on the Giants’ side, which will close the gap. I’d be really surprised if it doesn’t close at least a little bit before game time.
Of course, we’ve learned to expect the unexpected when it comes to the Patriots and Giants in the Super Bowl. New England was a 12-point favorite in that one, and we all know how it turned out.
Side note: I forgot how close Asante Samuel was to an INT that would have ended that Giants drive. Wow. As there are in any big game, there were so many plays in this game that if they’d swung the other way would have changed the outcome not just of the game but of history.
Hopefully we’ll be treated to similar excitement on Sunday.
Super Bowl 46: New York Giants v New England Patriots
- Super Bowl 46 Date: Sunday, February 5th
- Super Bowl 46 Time: 6:20 ET
- Super Bowl 46 TV: NBC
- Super Bowl 46 Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth
- Super Bowl 46 Point Spread: Patriots -3
- Super Bowl 46 Over-Under: 55