Bottoms Line Bracketology: NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions on January 23rd

Following the best weekend of the season so far in college hoops, there are a number of changes in this week’s projections.  Despite the fact that we continue to get more data on these teams, handing out the last few at-large bids is still a crapshoot.  You could make a case for or against virtually every squad once you get down to the last few teams in the field.

As I mentioned the last couple weeks, these projections are still relatively fluid at this point of the season, but below the bracket I will give my last four in and last four out, as well as the rationale I used to make those decisions.

 

EAST (BOSTON) SOUTH (ATLANTA)
PITTSBURGH – March 15 & 17 LOUISVILLE – March 15 & 17
1 Syracuse (20-1) 1 Kentucky (19-1)
16 Long Island (14-6) 16 Miss. Valley St. (7-11)/Stony Brook (11-7)
8 Florida State (13-6) 8 Virginia (15-3)
9 Alabama (13-6) 9 Harvard (16-2)
COLUMBUS – March 16 & 18 PORTLAND – March 15 & 17
5 Saint Mary’s (19-2) 5 Murray State (20-0)
12 Arkansas (14-5)/Iowa State (14-5) 12 New Mexico (15-4)
4 Indiana (16-4) 4 Marquette (16-4)
13 Oral Roberts (18-4) 13 Long Beach State (14-6)
ALBUQUERQUE – March 15 & 17 LOUISVILLE – March 15 & 17
6 Wisconsin (16-5) 6 Florida (15-4)
11 Cincinnati (15-5) 11 Saint Louis (15-4)
3 UNLV (18-3) 3 Michigan State (16-4)
14 Akron (12-7) 14 Nevada (16-3)
OMAHA – March 16 & 18 GREENSBORO – March 16 & 18
7 Mississippi State (16-4) 7 Seton Hall (15-4)
10 Xavier (13-6) 10 Purdue (14-6)
2 Missouri (18-1) 2 Duke (16-3)
15 Weber State (15-3) 15 Cleveland State (17-4)
MIDWEST (ST. LOUIS) WEST (PHOENIX)
PITTSBURGH – March 15 & 17 OMAHA – March 16 & 18
1 Ohio State (17-3) 1 Kansas (16-3)
16 UNC-Ash. (14-7)/TX-Arl. (13-5) 16 Norfolk State (15-5)
8 Wichita State (17-3) 8 Vanderbilt (14-5)
9 Louisville (15-5) 9 Southern Mississippi (17-3)
PORTLAND – March 15 & 17 COLUMBUS – March 16 & 18
5 Kansas State (14-4) 5 Michigan (15-5)
12 Marshall (13-6) 12 N.C. State (15-5)/Oregon (15-5)
4 San Diego State (17-2) 4 West Virginia (15-5)
13 Iona (15-4) 13 Middle Tennessee State (19-2)
NASHVILLE – March 16 & 18 NASHVILLE – March 16 & 18
6 Gonzaga (16-3) 6 Connecticut (14-5)
11 Minnesota (15-5) 11 California (16-5)
3 Georgetown (16-3) 3 Creighton (18-2)
14 Belmont (13-7) 14 Davidson (14-4)
ALBUQUERQUE – March 15 & 17 GREENSBORO – March 16 & 18
7 Dayton (14-5) 7 Illinois (15-5)
10 Memphis (13-6) 10 Temple (13-5)
2 Baylor (17-2) 2 North Carolina (16-3)
15 VCU (15-5) 15 Bucknell (15-6)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last Four In:

North Carolina State

The Wolfpack picked up arguably their second-best win of the year at Miami on Sunday, and they now have five wins against the RPI Top 100 (although none against the Top 50).  The home loss to Georgia Tech is pretty ugly, but other than that, their losses aren’t terrible.  This week will be huge for their tournament hopes as they travel to North Carolina and host Virginia.

Oregon

I had the Ducks in my last set of projections, and unlike most of their Pac-12 brethren, they actually won twice last week.  Their best wins are against Stanford in Eugene and at Arizona, and they have no losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100.  Believe me when I tell you that isn’t as rare as it may seem.

Iowa State

The Cyclones also fall into the “no sub-100 losses” category and took care of business in two winnable games last week.  They start a critical four-game stretch on Tuesday when they travel to Texas, followed by home games against Kansas and Kansas State and a road trip to Oklahoma.  A 2-2 record in those games is a must.

Arkansas

At this point virtually everyone has bad losses, and the Hogs are no exception thanks to a loss against Houston.  However, they have been playing their best basketball lately and have wins over Mississippi State, LSU, and Michigan this month.  That said, they have no wins away from home this season, which will have to change if they expect to remain in the field.

First Four Out:

Northwestern

After making their way into the field last week, the Wildcats lost to Wisconsin and Minnesota by a combined 43 points.  At this point they don’t have any sub-100 losses, but they have also been drubbed on multiple occasions by the better teams on their schedule.  Defense is a huge concern for Northwestern and may well be their undoing.

Central Florida

I gave the Knights a long look but can’t see four C-USA teams getting in.  As it stands, eight of their 15 wins have come against teams outside of the Top 200, and the loss to Louisiana-Lafayette is pretty ugly.  They do have wins over UConn and Memphis though, so if they can knock off teams like Marshall or Southern Miss in league play, they might be able to play their way into the field.

BYU

There just isn’t enough on BYU’s profile to allow them drop home games to WCC teams not named Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s.  Admittedly, Loyola Marymount is getting healthy and playing better, but the Cougars have very little margin for error.  They have no Top 50 wins and have now lost two games to sub-100 teams, while eight of their 17 wins are against sub-200 squads.

Stanford

The Cardinal lost by double-digits to both Washington schools last week and are now 3-3 against the Top 100 and just 6-5 against the Top 150.  Like UCF and BYU, they have nearly half of their wins against sub-200 teams.  Sunday’s game at Cal gives them a chance to work their way back into the field.

Here is how the bids broke out by conference:

Big East (8): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Seton Hall, Syracuse, West Virginia

Big Ten (8): Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

SEC (6): Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

ACC (5): Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia

Big 12 (5): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri

Atlantic 10 (4): Dayton, Saint Louis, Temple, Xavier

Conference USA (3): Marshall, Memphis, Southern Mississippi

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

Pac-12 (2): California, Oregon

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

America East: Stony Brook

Atlantic Sun: Belmont

Big Sky: Weber State

Big South: UNC-Asheville

Big West: Long Beach State

Colonial: VCU

Horizon: Cleveland State

Ivy: Harvard

MAAC: Iona

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Northeast: Long Island

Ohio Valley: Murray State

Patriot: Bucknell

Southern: Davidson

Southland: Texas-Arlington

Summit: Oral Roberts

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State

SWAC: Mississippi Valley State

WAC: Nevada

**********

Follow me on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops, and check out the latest edition of the Bottoms Line podcast.



About Andy Bottoms

While Andy was born and raised in Indiana, he would like to point out that he grew up shooting hoops in his driveway and not against the side of a barn like you see in all the March Madness promos or in the middle of a field like Jimmy Chitwood. Andy ranks among the top bracketologists according to the Bracket Matrix and has provided his projections to Fox Sports for the past three seasons. When not compiling excuses for missing work during the NCAA Tournament, Andy enjoys spending time with his wife and two daughters. He is a proud IU graduate and co-hosts The Assembly Call postgame show following every IU game. Twitter: @AndyBottoms

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